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2022-01-01

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2022-01-01

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2022-01-01

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2021-12-23

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Labcorp Bolsters Liquid Biopsy Capabilities With $450M PGDx Acquisition<blockquote>Labcorp以4.5亿美元收购PGDx增强液体活检能力</blockquote>

2021-12-07

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2021-12-06

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2021-11-24

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2021-11-02

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-01

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-31

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-30

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-28

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2021-10-23

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What's Next For Snapchat's Stock After Shares Plummet?<blockquote>股价暴跌后，Snapchat的股价下一步会怎样？</blockquote>

2021-10-14

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AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>

2021-10-08

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2021-10-07

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2021-10-05

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2021-10-04

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2021-09-28

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Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>

2021-09-27

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ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>

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"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692245892","repostId":"2195485524","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698996676,"gmtCreate":1640272143509,"gmtModify":1640272143619,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698996676","repostId":"1133161256","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133161256","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1640269130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133161256?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Labcorp Bolsters Liquid Biopsy Capabilities With $450M PGDx Acquisition<blockquote>Labcorp以4.5亿美元收购PGDx增强液体活检能力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133161256","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Laboratory Corp of America Holdings has agreed to acquire Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx), a ","content":"<p><b>Laboratory Corp of America Holdings</b>&nbsp;has agreed to acquire&nbsp;Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx), a cancer genomics firm with a portfolio of comprehensive liquid biopsy and tissue-based products.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国实验室控股公司</b>已同意收购Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc(PGDx)，这是一家癌症基因组学公司，拥有全面的液体活检和组织产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Labcorp will pay $450 million in cash at closing and up to an additional $125 million on achieving future performance milestones.</li>  <li>The addition of PGDx complements &amp; accelerates Labcorp’s existing liquid biopsy capabilities and expands its oncology portfolio of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based genomic profiling capabilities.</li>  <li>PGDx offers the only diagnostic kit cleared by the FDA for pan-solid cancer comprehensive tumor profiling using a 500+ gene panel.</li>  <li>PGDx 2021 revenues are expected to be approximately $22 million, with projected revenues for 2022 expected to be nearly $40 million.</li>  <li>Labcorp expects the acquisition to be slightly dilutive to its adjusted EPS over the next couple of years and provide returns over its cost of capital by year five.</li>  <li>The transaction is expected to close in 1H of 2022.</li>  <li><b>Price Action</b>: LH shares closed higher by 0.54% at $304.22 on Wednesday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Labcorp将在交易结束时支付4.5亿美元现金，并在实现未来业绩里程碑时额外支付最多1.25亿美元。</li><li>PGDx的加入补充并加速了Labcorp现有的液体活检能力，并扩展了其基于下一代测序(NGS)的基因组图谱能力的肿瘤学产品组合。</li><li>PGDx提供了FDA批准的唯一一种使用500多个基因组进行泛实体癌综合肿瘤分析的诊断试剂盒。</li><li>PGDx 2021年收入预计约为2200万美元，2022年收入预计接近4000万美元。</li><li>Labcorp预计，此次收购将在未来几年内略微稀释其调整后每股收益，并在第五年提供超过其资本成本的回报。</li><li>该交易预计将于2022年上半年完成。</li><li><b>价格行为</b>：LH股价周三收盘上涨0.54%，至304.22美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Labcorp Bolsters Liquid Biopsy Capabilities With $450M PGDx Acquisition<blockquote>Labcorp以4.5亿美元收购PGDx增强液体活检能力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLabcorp Bolsters Liquid Biopsy Capabilities With $450M PGDx Acquisition<blockquote>Labcorp以4.5亿美元收购PGDx增强液体活检能力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-23 22:18</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Laboratory Corp of America Holdings</b>&nbsp;has agreed to acquire&nbsp;Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx), a cancer genomics firm with a portfolio of comprehensive liquid biopsy and tissue-based products.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国实验室控股公司</b>已同意收购Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc(PGDx)，这是一家癌症基因组学公司，拥有全面的液体活检和组织产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Labcorp will pay $450 million in cash at closing and up to an additional $125 million on achieving future performance milestones.</li>  <li>The addition of PGDx complements &amp; accelerates Labcorp’s existing liquid biopsy capabilities and expands its oncology portfolio of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based genomic profiling capabilities.</li>  <li>PGDx offers the only diagnostic kit cleared by the FDA for pan-solid cancer comprehensive tumor profiling using a 500+ gene panel.</li>  <li>PGDx 2021 revenues are expected to be approximately $22 million, with projected revenues for 2022 expected to be nearly $40 million.</li>  <li>Labcorp expects the acquisition to be slightly dilutive to its adjusted EPS over the next couple of years and provide returns over its cost of capital by year five.</li>  <li>The transaction is expected to close in 1H of 2022.</li>  <li><b>Price Action</b>: LH shares closed higher by 0.54% at $304.22 on Wednesday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Labcorp将在交易结束时支付4.5亿美元现金，并在实现未来业绩里程碑时额外支付最多1.25亿美元。</li><li>PGDx的加入补充并加速了Labcorp现有的液体活检能力，并扩展了其基于下一代测序(NGS)的基因组图谱能力的肿瘤学产品组合。</li><li>PGDx提供了FDA批准的唯一一种使用500多个基因组进行泛实体癌综合肿瘤分析的诊断试剂盒。</li><li>PGDx 2021年收入预计约为2200万美元，2022年收入预计接近4000万美元。</li><li>Labcorp预计，此次收购将在未来几年内略微稀释其调整后每股收益，并在第五年提供超过其资本成本的回报。</li><li>该交易预计将于2022年上半年完成。</li><li><b>价格行为</b>：LH股价周三收盘上涨0.54%，至304.22美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LH":"徕博科"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133161256","content_text":"Laboratory Corp of America Holdings has agreed to acquire Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx), a cancer genomics firm with a portfolio of comprehensive liquid biopsy and tissue-based products.\n\nLabcorp will pay $450 million in cash at closing and up to an additional $125 million on achieving future performance milestones.\nThe addition of PGDx complements & accelerates Labcorp’s existing liquid biopsy capabilities and expands its oncology portfolio of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based genomic profiling capabilities.\nPGDx offers the only diagnostic kit cleared by the FDA for pan-solid cancer comprehensive tumor profiling using a 500+ gene panel.\nPGDx 2021 revenues are expected to be approximately $22 million, with projected revenues for 2022 expected to be nearly $40 million.\nLabcorp expects the acquisition to be slightly dilutive to its adjusted EPS over the next couple of years and provide returns over its cost of capital by year five.\nThe transaction is expected to close in 1H of 2022.\nPrice Action: LH shares closed higher by 0.54% at $304.22 on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606221456,"gmtCreate":1638887476337,"gmtModify":1638887489022,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606221456","repostId":"2189263216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606025129,"gmtCreate":1638802445555,"gmtModify":1638802445625,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606025129","repostId":"1162979405","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874685936,"gmtCreate":1637766581136,"gmtModify":1637766581188,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874685936","repostId":"1119170686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843671731,"gmtCreate":1635828006922,"gmtModify":1635828006922,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843671731","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849793070,"gmtCreate":1635776214409,"gmtModify":1635776214409,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849793070","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840505067,"gmtCreate":1635655169910,"gmtModify":1635655169910,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840505067","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840335439,"gmtCreate":1635586961855,"gmtModify":1635586987544,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840335439","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854895475,"gmtCreate":1635431555075,"gmtModify":1635431555251,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854895475","repostId":"1153391346","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858181565,"gmtCreate":1635004111422,"gmtModify":1635004111535,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858181565","repostId":"2177411104","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2177411104","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1634951923,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2177411104?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For Snapchat's Stock After Shares Plummet?<blockquote>股价暴跌后，Snapchat的股价下一步会怎样？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2177411104","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) traded significantly lower Friday after the company announced worse-than-expec","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>.</b> (NYSE:SNAP)&nbsp;traded significantly lower Friday after the company announced worse-than-expected third-quarter revenue results and issued fourth-quarter guidance below estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap公司</a>.</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNAP）周五股价大幅走低，此前该公司公布了差于预期的第三季度营收业绩，并发布了低于预期的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a9cded23c2f1ffb8ef7847de216128\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Snap reported quarterly earnings of 17 cents per share, beating the estimate of 8 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.07 billion, under the estimate of $1.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Snap公布季度收益为每股17美分，超出预期的每股8美分。该公司公布季度营收为10.7亿美元，低于预期的11亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Snap plunged&nbsp;26.6% to $55.14&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>Snap周五暴跌26.6%至55.14美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Snap Daily Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Snap日线图分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap shares fell back into a sideways channel that it once traded in. The stock looked to have broken above the channel but after missing expectations, saw a large drop.</li>  <li>Support was found near the $48 level in the past and may be found near here again in the future. Resistance has been found near $65 in the past and may hold again in the future.</li>  <li>The stock trades below both the 50-day moving average (green)&nbsp;and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating the stock’s sentiment has been bearish.</li>  <li>Each of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.</li>  <li>The Relative Strength Index (RSI) saw a drop off down to the 26 level. This big drop pushed the stock into the oversold area where there are many more sellers than buyers.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69db5658d520ff198ad68441975a71f\" tg-width=\"2060\" tg-height=\"1314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap股价回落至曾经交易的横盘通道。该股看起来已经突破了通道上方，但在未达到预期后，出现了大幅下跌。</li><li>过去在48美元水平附近找到了支撑，未来可能会再次在这里附近找到支撑。过去在65美元附近发现了阻力，未来可能会再次守住。</li><li>该股的交易价格低于50日移动平均线（绿色）和200日移动平均线（蓝色），表明该股的情绪一直看跌。</li><li>这些移动平均线中的每一条都可能在未来成为支撑区域。</li><li>相对强弱指数（RSI）跌至26水平。这一大幅下跌将该股推入超卖区域，卖家多于买家。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s Next For Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Snap的下一步是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish traders want to see snap start to recover from the large drop and start to form higher lows once again. Bulls are then looking for higher lows up to the resistance line before the resistance is broken. If the resistance can hold as support the stock may be ready for a large gap up.</p><p><blockquote>看涨交易者希望看到snap开始从大幅下跌中恢复过来，并开始再次形成更高的低点。然后，多头在阻力位被突破之前寻找更高的低点直至阻力线。如果阻力位能够作为支撑位，该股可能会出现大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Bearish traders are looking to see the stock continue to fade lower and eventually fall below the pattern support. If the pattern support could hold as an area of resistance, the stock could see further downward pushes in the future.</p><p><blockquote>看跌交易者希望看到该股继续走低，并最终跌破形态支撑。如果形态支撑能够作为阻力区域，该股未来可能会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For Snapchat's Stock After Shares Plummet?<blockquote>股价暴跌后，Snapchat的股价下一步会怎样？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For Snapchat's Stock After Shares Plummet?<blockquote>股价暴跌后，Snapchat的股价下一步会怎样？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-23 09:18</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>.</b> (NYSE:SNAP)&nbsp;traded significantly lower Friday after the company announced worse-than-expected third-quarter revenue results and issued fourth-quarter guidance below estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap公司</a>.</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNAP）周五股价大幅走低，此前该公司公布了差于预期的第三季度营收业绩，并发布了低于预期的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a9cded23c2f1ffb8ef7847de216128\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Snap reported quarterly earnings of 17 cents per share, beating the estimate of 8 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.07 billion, under the estimate of $1.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Snap公布季度收益为每股17美分，超出预期的每股8美分。该公司公布季度营收为10.7亿美元，低于预期的11亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Snap plunged&nbsp;26.6% to $55.14&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>Snap周五暴跌26.6%至55.14美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Snap Daily Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Snap日线图分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap shares fell back into a sideways channel that it once traded in. The stock looked to have broken above the channel but after missing expectations, saw a large drop.</li>  <li>Support was found near the $48 level in the past and may be found near here again in the future. Resistance has been found near $65 in the past and may hold again in the future.</li>  <li>The stock trades below both the 50-day moving average (green)&nbsp;and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating the stock’s sentiment has been bearish.</li>  <li>Each of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.</li>  <li>The Relative Strength Index (RSI) saw a drop off down to the 26 level. This big drop pushed the stock into the oversold area where there are many more sellers than buyers.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69db5658d520ff198ad68441975a71f\" tg-width=\"2060\" tg-height=\"1314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap股价回落至曾经交易的横盘通道。该股看起来已经突破了通道上方，但在未达到预期后，出现了大幅下跌。</li><li>过去在48美元水平附近找到了支撑，未来可能会再次在这里附近找到支撑。过去在65美元附近发现了阻力，未来可能会再次守住。</li><li>该股的交易价格低于50日移动平均线（绿色）和200日移动平均线（蓝色），表明该股的情绪一直看跌。</li><li>这些移动平均线中的每一条都可能在未来成为支撑区域。</li><li>相对强弱指数（RSI）跌至26水平。这一大幅下跌将该股推入超卖区域，卖家多于买家。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s Next For Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Snap的下一步是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish traders want to see snap start to recover from the large drop and start to form higher lows once again. Bulls are then looking for higher lows up to the resistance line before the resistance is broken. If the resistance can hold as support the stock may be ready for a large gap up.</p><p><blockquote>看涨交易者希望看到snap开始从大幅下跌中恢复过来，并开始再次形成更高的低点。然后，多头在阻力位被突破之前寻找更高的低点直至阻力线。如果阻力位能够作为支撑位，该股可能会出现大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Bearish traders are looking to see the stock continue to fade lower and eventually fall below the pattern support. If the pattern support could hold as an area of resistance, the stock could see further downward pushes in the future.</p><p><blockquote>看跌交易者希望看到该股继续走低，并最终跌破形态支撑。如果形态支撑能够作为阻力区域，该股未来可能会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2177411104","content_text":"Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) traded significantly lower Friday after the company announced worse-than-expected third-quarter revenue results and issued fourth-quarter guidance below estimates.\n\nSnap reported quarterly earnings of 17 cents per share, beating the estimate of 8 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.07 billion, under the estimate of $1.1 billion.\nSnap plunged 26.6% to $55.14 on Friday.\nSnap Daily Chart Analysis\n\nSnap shares fell back into a sideways channel that it once traded in. The stock looked to have broken above the channel but after missing expectations, saw a large drop.\nSupport was found near the $48 level in the past and may be found near here again in the future. Resistance has been found near $65 in the past and may hold again in the future.\nThe stock trades below both the 50-day moving average (green) and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating the stock’s sentiment has been bearish.\nEach of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.\nThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) saw a drop off down to the 26 level. This big drop pushed the stock into the oversold area where there are many more sellers than buyers.\n\n\nWhat’s Next For Snap?\nBullish traders want to see snap start to recover from the large drop and start to form higher lows once again. Bulls are then looking for higher lows up to the resistance line before the resistance is broken. If the resistance can hold as support the stock may be ready for a large gap up.\nBearish traders are looking to see the stock continue to fade lower and eventually fall below the pattern support. If the pattern support could hold as an area of resistance, the stock could see further downward pushes in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825626503,"gmtCreate":1634222741225,"gmtModify":1634222741225,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825626503","repostId":"1137577394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137577394","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634222446,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137577394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 22:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137577394","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading as Halloween movies hit theaters.\n\nAM","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading&nbsp;as Halloween movies hit theaters.</p><p><blockquote>随着万圣节电影上映，AMC院线股价在早盘交易中飙升超过7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825eb98d1defb7af0ffac3be4884f45a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> AMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.<b>On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.</b>There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>AMC延续了近期趋势，该股在过去一个月自由落体后继续找到支撑。<b>周三，AMC股价进一步上涨2.96%，收于37.91美元。</b>最近，meme股票的势头越来越大，因为互联网聊天室和Reddit论坛上的嗡嗡声指向另一次轧空尝试。</blockquote></p><p> AMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.<b>The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.</b>The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).</p><p><blockquote>周三，AMC apes再次让#AMCSqueeze标签成为社交媒体上的热门话题。<b>提及量激增是由于SEC宣布对Citadel Securities展开调查，该公司是散户投资者的头号公敌。</b>调查将调查Citadel的商业行为，其中可能包括卖空股票以及其与Robinhood（纳斯达克：HOOD）等按订单付费流经纪公司的关系。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.<b>A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season</b>. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年第三和第四季度相比，AMC的股票应该会受到强劲的季度环比和同比比较的帮助。<b>一系列新的好莱坞电影将在未来几周内上映，其中包括拉开万圣节季序幕的新电影《万圣节杀戮》</b>下周应该又是一个大周末，期待已久的《沙丘》电影将于10月22日上映。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-14 22:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading&nbsp;as Halloween movies hit theaters.</p><p><blockquote>随着万圣节电影上映，AMC院线股价在早盘交易中飙升超过7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825eb98d1defb7af0ffac3be4884f45a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> AMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.<b>On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.</b>There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>AMC延续了近期趋势，该股在过去一个月自由落体后继续找到支撑。<b>周三，AMC股价进一步上涨2.96%，收于37.91美元。</b>最近，meme股票的势头越来越大，因为互联网聊天室和Reddit论坛上的嗡嗡声指向另一次轧空尝试。</blockquote></p><p> AMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.<b>The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.</b>The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).</p><p><blockquote>周三，AMC apes再次让#AMCSqueeze标签成为社交媒体上的热门话题。<b>提及量激增是由于SEC宣布对Citadel Securities展开调查，该公司是散户投资者的头号公敌。</b>调查将调查Citadel的商业行为，其中可能包括卖空股票以及其与Robinhood（纳斯达克：HOOD）等按订单付费流经纪公司的关系。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.<b>A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season</b>. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年第三和第四季度相比，AMC的股票应该会受到强劲的季度环比和同比比较的帮助。<b>一系列新的好莱坞电影将在未来几周内上映，其中包括拉开万圣节季序幕的新电影《万圣节杀戮》</b>下周应该又是一个大周末，期待已久的《沙丘》电影将于10月22日上映。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137577394","content_text":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading as Halloween movies hit theaters.\n\nAMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.\nAMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).\nAMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821166735,"gmtCreate":1633706397145,"gmtModify":1633706431236,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821166735","repostId":"2173929300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823621901,"gmtCreate":1633619199260,"gmtModify":1633619202975,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823621901","repostId":"1170599877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829020045,"gmtCreate":1633443924413,"gmtModify":1633443925373,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829020045","repostId":"1129414233","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820170498,"gmtCreate":1633362060747,"gmtModify":1633362060834,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820170498","repostId":"2172996701","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862107135,"gmtCreate":1632841368252,"gmtModify":1632841368252,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862107135","repostId":"1152246777","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152246777","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632839983,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152246777?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 22:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152246777","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGoing into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous mile","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.</li>  <li>Apple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.</li>  <li>Compared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ee1636e4c2fc8616107ba5930de843\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Stephen Lam/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>进入第四季度财报，苹果有望迎来井喷的一年，从总收入到净利润都打破了之前的里程碑。</li><li>苹果通过增加计划分配给回购计划的资本金额，继续为股东创造巨大的价值。</li><li>与同行相比，苹果公司看起来很便宜，如果你有长期的眼光，最近的回调是一个机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有长期投资眼光，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票的时机并不糟糕。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到5000亿美元、1万亿美元还是2万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，AAPL都突破了障碍。未来，我们将讨论AAPL市值达到5万亿美元。不要把AAPL看作是一家经历了几次股票分割并成长为一家价值2.43万亿美元的公司。AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，在过去12个月(TTM)中产生了947.7亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)，5年平均FCF为674.9亿美元。看看AAPL，它的毛利率为41.66%，利润率为26.24%，与TTM中868亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看AAPL在过去十年中为其股东所做的事情，他们回购了95.9亿股股票，占公司36.58%的股份，同时支付了1,134亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了苹果公司之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买苹果公司股票的时机永远不会太糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TD</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：道明</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解为什么苹果的股票回购对股东很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我在Seeking Alpha上撰写了有关AAPL的文章，并阅读了许多其他有关AAPL的文章。总是有人评论Tim Cook（苹果首席执行官）和Luca Maestri（苹果首席财务官）无能，对公司财务管理不善，回购毫无用处。我从未见过管理团队和董事会像苹果公司的团队那样关心他们的股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL已通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。据我所知，没有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这笔金额的资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由增发股票，否则在我看来，这是最大的危险信号之一，因为当前股东的所有权被稀释了。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股已发行股票，而您持有100股，则您拥有该公司1%的股份。如果ABC发行2,500股来筹集资金，那么现在有12,500股已发行股票，您在公司的所有权自动稀释至0.80%。如果ABC利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行2,500股，而是在公开市场上回购2,500股，那么ABC将剩下7,500股已发行股票。您在ABC的股权将会增加，因为您的100股股票现在相当于该公司的1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分布在更少的股票上。假设，如果ABC产生1,000，000美元的收入和100,000美元的收益，基于10,000股，每股ABC将产生100美元的收入和10美元的每股收益。通过发行更多股票并使已发行股票达到12,500股，每股现在将产生80美元的收入和8美元的每股收益。通过回购2,500股而不是发行2,500股，ABC现在将产生133.33美元的收入和13.33美元的每股收益，因为他们只有7,500股已发行股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.</p><p><blockquote>当AAPL回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加AAPL所持股份的百分比来回报股东。AAPL产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回馈股东通过回购和股息产生的部分现金来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL的TTM自由现金流每年从416.8亿美元增加到947.7亿美元。2021财年远高于AAPL前几年，因此如果使用5年平均水平，FCF每年从416.8亿美元增加到674.9亿美元。苹果公司的回购不是操纵，也不应被视为财务管理不善。过去7个季度，AAPL以平均每季度197.1亿美元的速度回购了1380亿美元的股票。每个季度AAPL都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股权头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该值得庆祝，因为苹果公司创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Everything Money</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：一切金钱</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用所产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股权稀释的一个完美例子。截至2011年底，TSLA已发行普通股总数为5.227亿股。截至上次报告，TSLA拥有9.84亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉股东权益稀释了88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了1.762亿股新股，同期股东权益稀释了21.81%。发行股票并不总是负面的，公平地说，对于特斯拉来说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA的TTM收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增长了10,585%。尽管TSLA在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中被稀释了88.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.</p><p><blockquote>2011年4月28日，AAPL宣布，其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。基于目前2.43万亿美元的估值，AAPL董事会增加了足够的资本，可以在公开市场上额外回购3.7%的股份。根据过去十年的数据，AAPL将继续对股东友好，因为他们的资本配置力度随着FFC的增加而增加。我很震惊有人会考虑这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。AAPL每个季度都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的AAPL股权百分比。AAPL通过回购增加股东价值所表现出的奉献精神是股东可以继续期待的，因为AAPL在每一个历史新高的股价中都不断回购股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的估值对于新投资来说已经成熟，尤其是在最近的回调之后</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.</p><p><blockquote>21年6月28日，AAPL的股价为134.78美元，21年9月7日达到156.68美元。此后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在9/20/21跌至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。截至9/24321交易结束时，AAPL股价已从近期低点反弹，收于146.92美元。在浏览了AAPL的指标并回顾了1年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，苹果公司的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在21年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在21年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏天，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL的每次回调都创下了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL也创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，苹果公司有望报告其运营最好的一年，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜。市销率是将股价与每股产生的收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL的市盈率为7.13，而MSFT的市盈率为13.44，GOOGL的市盈率为8.71。GOOGL的市盈率为3.89，是该集团中最低的。市盈率用于评估公司股价与其产生的收益的关系，并表明投资者愿意为每1美元收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL的市盈率为28.53，而MSFT为36.87，AMZN为58.54，GOOGL为30.48。我通过股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL的市盈率为135.04%，而MSFT为43.15%，AMZN为25.64%，GOOGL为26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL的自由现金流倍数为25.64倍，MSFT的自由现金流倍数为40.09倍，AMZN的自由现金流倍数为244.80倍，GOOGL的自由现金流倍数为32.46倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下加入的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回调时，她买了更多的苹果公司。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买AAPL的股票，我相信他也在回调期间借此机会增持了AAPL。我认为AAPL仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL的市盈率仅为其自由现金流的25.64倍，市盈率为28.53，而市场平均水平为34.75。苹果公司在从其股权中产生利润方面做得令人难以置信，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；什么不喜欢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们对10月底报告的AAPL 2021年第四季度有何看法？</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度于每年9月30日结束。当AAPL在10月底公布收益时，他们将报告第四季度和2021财年的数据。苹果公司为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL的收入为2825.6亿美元，毛利润为1176.6亿美元，净利润为741.3亿美元。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别上都超过了2020财年。AAPL预测2021年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使他们第四季度的收入至少达到711.6亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果AAPL能够将40%的收入转化为毛利润，25%转化为净利润，那么到2021年，他们的收入将达到3537.2亿美元，毛利润为1461.2亿美元，净利润为919.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>我认为每一项投资都是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对看涨期权第四季度收益和2022财年的预测有什么看法。看看我在下面构建的图表，AAPL在2016年和2017年有一段时间的收入低于2015年，然后才加速增长。假设如果AAPL的收入碰巧在一两年内达到峰值，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对AAPL有长期投资视野。2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入2021年底，AAPL将报告井喷的一年，我们将得到一些对2022年的预测。AAPL董事会将股票回购计划增加了900亿美元，没有迹象表明AAPL正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是一个买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入AAPL股票的机会。AAPL产生的自由现金流是我见过的所有公司中最多的，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，苹果公司值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为AAPL将于10月底公布第四季度收益和创纪录的2021年收益。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入可能同比增长28.85%，净利润可能同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和自由现金流价格明显低于MSFT、AMZN和GOOGL。苹果公司通过将一定比例的自由现金流分配给回购和股息，继续为股东创造价值。AAPL不断创新，发布了新产品，继续发展其服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划增加了900亿美元。我相信AAPL是一项出色的长期投资，当前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 22:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.</li>  <li>Apple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.</li>  <li>Compared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ee1636e4c2fc8616107ba5930de843\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Stephen Lam/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>进入第四季度财报，苹果有望迎来井喷的一年，从总收入到净利润都打破了之前的里程碑。</li><li>苹果通过增加计划分配给回购计划的资本金额，继续为股东创造巨大的价值。</li><li>与同行相比，苹果公司看起来很便宜，如果你有长期的眼光，最近的回调是一个机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有长期投资眼光，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票的时机并不糟糕。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到5000亿美元、1万亿美元还是2万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，AAPL都突破了障碍。未来，我们将讨论AAPL市值达到5万亿美元。不要把AAPL看作是一家经历了几次股票分割并成长为一家价值2.43万亿美元的公司。AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，在过去12个月(TTM)中产生了947.7亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)，5年平均FCF为674.9亿美元。看看AAPL，它的毛利率为41.66%，利润率为26.24%，与TTM中868亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看AAPL在过去十年中为其股东所做的事情，他们回购了95.9亿股股票，占公司36.58%的股份，同时支付了1,134亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了苹果公司之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买苹果公司股票的时机永远不会太糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TD</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：道明</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解为什么苹果的股票回购对股东很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我在Seeking Alpha上撰写了有关AAPL的文章，并阅读了许多其他有关AAPL的文章。总是有人评论Tim Cook（苹果首席执行官）和Luca Maestri（苹果首席财务官）无能，对公司财务管理不善，回购毫无用处。我从未见过管理团队和董事会像苹果公司的团队那样关心他们的股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL已通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。据我所知，没有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这笔金额的资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由增发股票，否则在我看来，这是最大的危险信号之一，因为当前股东的所有权被稀释了。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股已发行股票，而您持有100股，则您拥有该公司1%的股份。如果ABC发行2,500股来筹集资金，那么现在有12,500股已发行股票，您在公司的所有权自动稀释至0.80%。如果ABC利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行2,500股，而是在公开市场上回购2,500股，那么ABC将剩下7,500股已发行股票。您在ABC的股权将会增加，因为您的100股股票现在相当于该公司的1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分布在更少的股票上。假设，如果ABC产生1,000，000美元的收入和100,000美元的收益，基于10,000股，每股ABC将产生100美元的收入和10美元的每股收益。通过发行更多股票并使已发行股票达到12,500股，每股现在将产生80美元的收入和8美元的每股收益。通过回购2,500股而不是发行2,500股，ABC现在将产生133.33美元的收入和13.33美元的每股收益，因为他们只有7,500股已发行股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.</p><p><blockquote>当AAPL回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加AAPL所持股份的百分比来回报股东。AAPL产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回馈股东通过回购和股息产生的部分现金来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL的TTM自由现金流每年从416.8亿美元增加到947.7亿美元。2021财年远高于AAPL前几年，因此如果使用5年平均水平，FCF每年从416.8亿美元增加到674.9亿美元。苹果公司的回购不是操纵，也不应被视为财务管理不善。过去7个季度，AAPL以平均每季度197.1亿美元的速度回购了1380亿美元的股票。每个季度AAPL都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股权头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该值得庆祝，因为苹果公司创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Everything Money</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：一切金钱</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用所产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股权稀释的一个完美例子。截至2011年底，TSLA已发行普通股总数为5.227亿股。截至上次报告，TSLA拥有9.84亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉股东权益稀释了88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了1.762亿股新股，同期股东权益稀释了21.81%。发行股票并不总是负面的，公平地说，对于特斯拉来说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA的TTM收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增长了10,585%。尽管TSLA在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中被稀释了88.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.</p><p><blockquote>2011年4月28日，AAPL宣布，其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。基于目前2.43万亿美元的估值，AAPL董事会增加了足够的资本，可以在公开市场上额外回购3.7%的股份。根据过去十年的数据，AAPL将继续对股东友好，因为他们的资本配置力度随着FFC的增加而增加。我很震惊有人会考虑这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。AAPL每个季度都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的AAPL股权百分比。AAPL通过回购增加股东价值所表现出的奉献精神是股东可以继续期待的，因为AAPL在每一个历史新高的股价中都不断回购股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的估值对于新投资来说已经成熟，尤其是在最近的回调之后</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.</p><p><blockquote>21年6月28日，AAPL的股价为134.78美元，21年9月7日达到156.68美元。此后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在9/20/21跌至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。截至9/24321交易结束时，AAPL股价已从近期低点反弹，收于146.92美元。在浏览了AAPL的指标并回顾了1年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，苹果公司的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在21年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在21年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏天，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL的每次回调都创下了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL也创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，苹果公司有望报告其运营最好的一年，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜。市销率是将股价与每股产生的收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL的市盈率为7.13，而MSFT的市盈率为13.44，GOOGL的市盈率为8.71。GOOGL的市盈率为3.89，是该集团中最低的。市盈率用于评估公司股价与其产生的收益的关系，并表明投资者愿意为每1美元收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL的市盈率为28.53，而MSFT为36.87，AMZN为58.54，GOOGL为30.48。我通过股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL的市盈率为135.04%，而MSFT为43.15%，AMZN为25.64%，GOOGL为26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL的自由现金流倍数为25.64倍，MSFT的自由现金流倍数为40.09倍，AMZN的自由现金流倍数为244.80倍，GOOGL的自由现金流倍数为32.46倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下加入的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回调时，她买了更多的苹果公司。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买AAPL的股票，我相信他也在回调期间借此机会增持了AAPL。我认为AAPL仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL的市盈率仅为其自由现金流的25.64倍，市盈率为28.53，而市场平均水平为34.75。苹果公司在从其股权中产生利润方面做得令人难以置信，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；什么不喜欢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们对10月底报告的AAPL 2021年第四季度有何看法？</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度于每年9月30日结束。当AAPL在10月底公布收益时，他们将报告第四季度和2021财年的数据。苹果公司为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL的收入为2825.6亿美元，毛利润为1176.6亿美元，净利润为741.3亿美元。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别上都超过了2020财年。AAPL预测2021年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使他们第四季度的收入至少达到711.6亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果AAPL能够将40%的收入转化为毛利润，25%转化为净利润，那么到2021年，他们的收入将达到3537.2亿美元，毛利润为1461.2亿美元，净利润为919.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>我认为每一项投资都是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对看涨期权第四季度收益和2022财年的预测有什么看法。看看我在下面构建的图表，AAPL在2016年和2017年有一段时间的收入低于2015年，然后才加速增长。假设如果AAPL的收入碰巧在一两年内达到峰值，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对AAPL有长期投资视野。2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入2021年底，AAPL将报告井喷的一年，我们将得到一些对2022年的预测。AAPL董事会将股票回购计划增加了900亿美元，没有迹象表明AAPL正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是一个买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入AAPL股票的机会。AAPL产生的自由现金流是我见过的所有公司中最多的，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，苹果公司值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为AAPL将于10月底公布第四季度收益和创纪录的2021年收益。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入可能同比增长28.85%，净利润可能同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和自由现金流价格明显低于MSFT、AMZN和GOOGL。苹果公司通过将一定比例的自由现金流分配给回购和股息，继续为股东创造价值。AAPL不断创新，发布了新产品，继续发展其服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划增加了900亿美元。我相信AAPL是一项出色的长期投资，当前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152246777","content_text":"Summary\n\nGoing into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.\nApple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.\nCompared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.\n\nStephen Lam/Getty Images News\nI don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.\nSource: TD\nUnderstanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders\nI have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always comments about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.\nSource: Apple\nWhy are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.\nWhen AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.\nSource: Everything Money\nI recently wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.\nApple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback\nShares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the four largest companies in the S&P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.\nSource: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?\nWhat are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?\nAAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.\nI look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)\nConclusion\nAAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866846730,"gmtCreate":1632756193020,"gmtModify":1632798045353,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866846730","repostId":"1123391790","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123391790","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632754543,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123391790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123391790","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</li>  <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li>  <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现就显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</li><li>ASML正在全力以赴，但估值已经变得极度紧张，我们认为是时候获利了结或至少减少头寸了。</li><li>我们对该公司的基本面持乐观态度，并且仍然相信极紫外技术是芯片制造的未来。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We wrote a&nbsp;bullish article&nbsp;on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML)&nbsp;more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</p><p><blockquote>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML（纳斯达克股票代码：ASML）的看涨文章，此后该公司的表现显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&amp;D needed, this is what we said back then:</p><p><blockquote>我们的部分论点是，该行业正在成为自然垄断，因为很少有人能够匹配所需的极端投资和研发，这就是我们当时所说的：</blockquote></p><p>   Increasing complexity and R&amp;D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.  We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&amp;D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p><p><blockquote>日益增加的复杂性和研发成本已经将赌注提高到了未来很少有公司能够竞争的程度，从而增加了少数留下来的公司的回报。我们还提到，多年来的大量研发投资获得回报的时候到了，考虑到其毛利润的指数增长，我们似乎是对的，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p><p><blockquote>虽然考虑到创纪录的毛利率，该股理应获得较高的市销率，但我们认为约18倍的市销率已经过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML看涨论点的一部分是，尽管其收入具有周期性，但很容易观察到也有长期走高的趋势。ASML正在增加其市场份额，该行业几乎成为垄断。事实证明，在极紫外(EUV)设备方面，ASML是唯一的游戏，客户正在购买更多设备来满足半导体需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&amp;D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&amp;D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加和公司变得更加成功，它并没有减少R&amp;D费用，而是加倍投入比以往更多的资金用于R&amp;D。我们喜欢该公司不断投资于其未来，这将使竞争对手越来越难以赶上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p><p><blockquote>当我们在2019年撰写这篇看涨文章时，股价的EV/EBITDA约为18倍，而现在基于这一估值倍数，股价几乎高出3倍。股价的涨幅显然超过了盈利能力的涨幅。我们认为这是不可持续的，要么业务基本面赶上股价，要么股价调整到更合理的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>有一点没有改变，那就是公司资产负债表的实力。该公司继续拥有净正现金头寸，速动比率非常健康，高于1.0，速动资产多于流动负债。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，股息约为1%，该公司刚刚宣布打算将股息增加50%。如今，虽然该公司继续通过股息和股票回购来回报股东，但收益率已降至微不足道的0.38%。包括股息和股票回购在内的股东收益率略好于2%，而2019年约为3%。这些统计数据和股息压缩反映了股票变得多么昂贵。我们还认为，股票回购应该推迟，直到股价更接近公司的内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p><p><blockquote>最后，远期市盈率很好地捕捉了股票的价格。早在2019年，股票的TTM和远期市盈率均约为24倍。自那时以来，这两个倍数都增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Advantages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its&nbsp;order book filling, and it is projecting a&nbsp;trillion dollar semiconductor market&nbsp;by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&amp;D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测的ASML竞争优势变得更强的事情已经成为现实。ASML基本上正在销售其订单填充所能制造的所有机器，并预计到2030年半导体市场将达到1万亿美元，是目前规模的两倍。鉴于其当前产品的实力以及该公司仍在研发上投入巨资以进一步改进机器的事实，ASML很可能会获得将该行业产能翻倍所需的大量资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这就是我们当时的推理，让我们预测该公司将主导其行业：</blockquote></p><p> While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为市场目前将ASML视为一家未来具有巨大增长机会的优质技术公司，但市场似乎忽略了EUV光刻技术的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&amp;D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg&nbsp;told Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>随着机器复杂性的增加和所需的R&amp;D投资的增加，保持摩尔定律和技术节点萎缩的投资正在迅速增加。这增加了风险，每一代新一代都会迫使竞争对手出局，给剩下的少数公司更多的定价权，并使他们的知识产权更有价值。然而，一些分析师开始理解这些发展的重要性。例如，InsingerGilissen Bankiers分析师Jos Versteeg告诉彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p><p><blockquote>ASML认为其订单组合在2019年整体情况良好，这在很大程度上是因为它进入了EUV，而他们是唯一的参与者。未来七年的前景看起来非常光明。</blockquote></p><p> These are incredibly complex machines that&nbsp;weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and&nbsp;incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity&nbsp;to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是极其复杂的机器，重量超过100吨，需要使用高功率激光和等离子体，并且需要数年时间和令人难以置信的工程创造力才能工作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p><p><blockquote>EUV光刻技术不仅对于保持缩小技术节点至关重要，而且其采用也为客户带来了一些附带好处。其中包括缩短周期时间、简化流程和降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>出于这些原因，一些半导体技术领导者正在为EUV系统建设大量产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p><p><blockquote>虽然ASML的基本面一如既往地强劲，但我们相信大部分好消息已经反映在股价中。我们认为现在是出售的好时机，或者至少是配对投资。ASML确实是一家独一无二的公司，以一种罕见的方式主导着行业。它已经将竞争对手远远甩在身后，并且正在以良好的盈利能力和有吸引力的利润率增长。然而，归根结底，一项成功的投资既取决于公司的质量，也取决于支付的价格，而目前价格非常高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 22:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</li>  <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li>  <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现就显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</li><li>ASML正在全力以赴，但估值已经变得极度紧张，我们认为是时候获利了结或至少减少头寸了。</li><li>我们对该公司的基本面持乐观态度，并且仍然相信极紫外技术是芯片制造的未来。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We wrote a&nbsp;bullish article&nbsp;on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML)&nbsp;more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</p><p><blockquote>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML（纳斯达克股票代码：ASML）的看涨文章，此后该公司的表现显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&amp;D needed, this is what we said back then:</p><p><blockquote>我们的部分论点是，该行业正在成为自然垄断，因为很少有人能够匹配所需的极端投资和研发，这就是我们当时所说的：</blockquote></p><p>   Increasing complexity and R&amp;D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.  We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&amp;D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p><p><blockquote>日益增加的复杂性和研发成本已经将赌注提高到了未来很少有公司能够竞争的程度，从而增加了少数留下来的公司的回报。我们还提到，多年来的大量研发投资获得回报的时候到了，考虑到其毛利润的指数增长，我们似乎是对的，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p><p><blockquote>虽然考虑到创纪录的毛利率，该股理应获得较高的市销率，但我们认为约18倍的市销率已经过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML看涨论点的一部分是，尽管其收入具有周期性，但很容易观察到也有长期走高的趋势。ASML正在增加其市场份额，该行业几乎成为垄断。事实证明，在极紫外(EUV)设备方面，ASML是唯一的游戏，客户正在购买更多设备来满足半导体需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&amp;D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&amp;D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加和公司变得更加成功，它并没有减少R&amp;D费用，而是加倍投入比以往更多的资金用于R&amp;D。我们喜欢该公司不断投资于其未来，这将使竞争对手越来越难以赶上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p><p><blockquote>当我们在2019年撰写这篇看涨文章时，股价的EV/EBITDA约为18倍，而现在基于这一估值倍数，股价几乎高出3倍。股价的涨幅显然超过了盈利能力的涨幅。我们认为这是不可持续的，要么业务基本面赶上股价，要么股价调整到更合理的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>有一点没有改变，那就是公司资产负债表的实力。该公司继续拥有净正现金头寸，速动比率非常健康，高于1.0，速动资产多于流动负债。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，股息约为1%，该公司刚刚宣布打算将股息增加50%。如今，虽然该公司继续通过股息和股票回购来回报股东，但收益率已降至微不足道的0.38%。包括股息和股票回购在内的股东收益率略好于2%，而2019年约为3%。这些统计数据和股息压缩反映了股票变得多么昂贵。我们还认为，股票回购应该推迟，直到股价更接近公司的内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p><p><blockquote>最后，远期市盈率很好地捕捉了股票的价格。早在2019年，股票的TTM和远期市盈率均约为24倍。自那时以来，这两个倍数都增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Advantages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its&nbsp;order book filling, and it is projecting a&nbsp;trillion dollar semiconductor market&nbsp;by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&amp;D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测的ASML竞争优势变得更强的事情已经成为现实。ASML基本上正在销售其订单填充所能制造的所有机器，并预计到2030年半导体市场将达到1万亿美元，是目前规模的两倍。鉴于其当前产品的实力以及该公司仍在研发上投入巨资以进一步改进机器的事实，ASML很可能会获得将该行业产能翻倍所需的大量资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这就是我们当时的推理，让我们预测该公司将主导其行业：</blockquote></p><p> While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为市场目前将ASML视为一家未来具有巨大增长机会的优质技术公司，但市场似乎忽略了EUV光刻技术的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&amp;D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg&nbsp;told Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>随着机器复杂性的增加和所需的R&amp;D投资的增加，保持摩尔定律和技术节点萎缩的投资正在迅速增加。这增加了风险，每一代新一代都会迫使竞争对手出局，给剩下的少数公司更多的定价权，并使他们的知识产权更有价值。然而，一些分析师开始理解这些发展的重要性。例如，InsingerGilissen Bankiers分析师Jos Versteeg告诉彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p><p><blockquote>ASML认为其订单组合在2019年整体情况良好，这在很大程度上是因为它进入了EUV，而他们是唯一的参与者。未来七年的前景看起来非常光明。</blockquote></p><p> These are incredibly complex machines that&nbsp;weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and&nbsp;incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity&nbsp;to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是极其复杂的机器，重量超过100吨，需要使用高功率激光和等离子体，并且需要数年时间和令人难以置信的工程创造力才能工作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p><p><blockquote>EUV光刻技术不仅对于保持缩小技术节点至关重要，而且其采用也为客户带来了一些附带好处。其中包括缩短周期时间、简化流程和降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>出于这些原因，一些半导体技术领导者正在为EUV系统建设大量产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p><p><blockquote>虽然ASML的基本面一如既往地强劲，但我们相信大部分好消息已经反映在股价中。我们认为现在是出售的好时机，或者至少是配对投资。ASML确实是一家独一无二的公司，以一种罕见的方式主导着行业。它已经将竞争对手远远甩在身后，并且正在以良好的盈利能力和有吸引力的利润率增长。然而，归根结底，一项成功的投资既取决于公司的质量，也取决于支付的价格，而目前价格非常高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123391790","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.\nWe are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML) more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nPart of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&D needed, this is what we said back then:\n\n Increasing complexity and R&D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.\n\nWe also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.\nData by YCharts\nWhile shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.\nData by YCharts\nPart of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.\nData by YCharts\nAs revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.\nData by YCharts\nValuation\nWhen we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.\nData by YCharts\nOne thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.\nData by YCharts\nBack in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.\nData by YCharts\nFinally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.\nData by YCharts\nCompetitive Advantages\nWhat we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its order book filling, and it is projecting a trillion dollar semiconductor market by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.\nLooking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:\nWhile we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.\nThe investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg told Bloomberg:\nASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.\nThese are incredibly complex machines that weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity to get to work.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nNot only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nFor these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.\nConclusion\nWhile ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":151416094,"gmtCreate":1625102095918,"gmtModify":1633944799266,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like comment pls","listText":"Like comment pls","text":"Like comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151416094","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178516480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在本月和本季度结束时基本上摆脱了积极的经济数据，并期待周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年的最后一个交易日，股指低迷且区间震荡，蓝筹股道指上涨，而纳斯达克则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>三大指数均连续第五个季度上涨，标准普尔指数上涨8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨9.5%，道指上涨4.6%。标普500上半年表现为1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个不错的季度，”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德Dakota Wealth的高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示。“截至昨晚收盘，标普今年迄今已上涨超过14%，超过道指和纳斯达克。这表明股市正在出现广泛反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数结束了四个月的连涨，小幅收低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年迄今为止的领先行业正如你所预期的那样，”帕夫利克补充道。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>帕夫利克补充道：“在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注暂时性通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向增长（股票）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的交易已经持续了一段时间，这正在引导人们恢复增长。”</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图：6月份成长股跑赢价值股，年初至今差距缩小，）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约Inverness Counsel首席投资策略师蒂姆·格里斯基(Tim Ghriskey)表示：“整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内持续上涨。”“虽然按照历史标准来看估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理机构ADP的数据，私营部门6月份增加了692,000个就业岗位，轻松超出预期。这一数字比经济学家在劳工部周五发布的更全面的就业报告中预测的私人就业人数高出92,000人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨210.22点，涨幅0.61%，至34,502.51点；标普500上涨5.7点，涨幅0.13%，至4,297.5点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌24.38点，涨幅0.17%，至14,503.95点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔11个主要板块中，有6个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架P-8A海上控制飞机，波音公司股价上涨1.6%，此前联合航空公布了有史以来最大的新飞机订单。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在季度财报发布前上涨2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度业绩后，盘后交易中相对没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.35比1；在纳斯达克，1.19比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为108.5亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在本月和本季度结束时基本上摆脱了积极的经济数据，并期待周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年的最后一个交易日，股指低迷且区间震荡，蓝筹股道指上涨，而纳斯达克则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>三大指数均连续第五个季度上涨，标准普尔指数上涨8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨9.5%，道指上涨4.6%。标普500上半年表现为1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个不错的季度，”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德Dakota Wealth的高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示。“截至昨晚收盘，标普今年迄今已上涨超过14%，超过道指和纳斯达克。这表明股市正在出现广泛反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数结束了四个月的连涨，小幅收低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年迄今为止的领先行业正如你所预期的那样，”帕夫利克补充道。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>帕夫利克补充道：“在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注暂时性通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向增长（股票）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的交易已经持续了一段时间，这正在引导人们恢复增长。”</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图：6月份成长股跑赢价值股，年初至今差距缩小，）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约Inverness Counsel首席投资策略师蒂姆·格里斯基(Tim Ghriskey)表示：“整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内持续上涨。”“虽然按照历史标准来看估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理机构ADP的数据，私营部门6月份增加了692,000个就业岗位，轻松超出预期。这一数字比经济学家在劳工部周五发布的更全面的就业报告中预测的私人就业人数高出92,000人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨210.22点，涨幅0.61%，至34,502.51点；标普500上涨5.7点，涨幅0.13%，至4,297.5点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌24.38点，涨幅0.17%，至14,503.95点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔11个主要板块中，有6个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架P-8A海上控制飞机，波音公司股价上涨1.6%，此前联合航空公布了有史以来最大的新飞机订单。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在季度财报发布前上涨2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度业绩后，盘后交易中相对没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.35比1；在纳斯达克，1.19比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为108.5亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810212119,"gmtCreate":1629980231531,"gmtModify":1631893157024,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810212119","repostId":"1120384889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120384889","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629981194,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120384889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 20:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120384889","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record ","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四小幅走低，此前一天，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:33 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 40 points, or 0.11%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 0.75 points, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 19 points, or 0.12%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:33，道指e-mini上涨40点，涨幅0.11%，标普500 e-mini下跌0.75点，涨幅0.02%，纳斯达克100 e-mini下跌19点，涨幅0.12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833c44beffe5ea2359adfa1b85af4f96\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Initial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, hovering around pandemic-era lows as the jobs market shows further signs of healing.</p><p><blockquote>随着就业市场显示出进一步的复苏迹象，首次申请失业保险的人数在过去一周几乎没有变化，徘徊在大流行时期的低点附近。</blockquote></p><p> First-time filings totaled 353,000 for the week ended Aug. 14, a slight increase from the previous week's 349,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was slightly worse than the 350,000 Dow Jones estimate.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四报告称，截至8月14日当周，首次申请总数为353,000份，较前一周的349,000份略有增加。这比道琼斯估计的35万人略差。</blockquote></p><p> A separate economic reading showed that gross domestic product increased at a 6.6% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to the second estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department. That was ahead of the 6.5% initial estimate but a notch below the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.</p><p><blockquote>根据商务部周四的第二次估计，另一项经济数据显示，第二季度国内生产总值年化增长率为6.6%。这高于6.5%的初步估计，但低于道琼斯6.7%的估计。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton Interactive,Gap and Dell Technologies are scheduled to post results after markets close.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton Interactive、Gap和Dell Technologies计划在收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> Coty(COTY) – The cosmetics maker’s shares added 5.1% in the premarket after it said it expects a return to annual sales growth this year. Coty’s adjusted loss for its latest quarter was 9 cents per share, 3 cents wider than expected, but sales did come in above Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>科蒂(COTY)——这家化妆品制造商表示预计今年销售额将恢复年度增长，其股价在盘前上涨5.1%。科蒂最近一个季度的调整后亏损为每股9美分，比预期高出3美分，但销售额确实高于华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Dollar General(DG) – The discount retailer beat estimates by 10 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.69 per share and revenue slightly above forecasts. Comparable store sales fell 4.7%, less than the 5.1% drop expected by analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. However, Dollar General did forecast lower-than-expected earnings for the full year, and its shares fell 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Dollar General(DG)——这家折扣零售商超出预期10美分，调整后季度收益为每股2.69美元，收入略高于预期。可比商店销售额下降4.7%，低于StreetAccount调查的分析师预期的5.1%降幅。不过，Dollar General确实预测全年盈利低于预期，其股价在盘前交易中下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Dollar Tree(DLTR) – Dollar Tree shares fell 5.7% in premarket trading after the discount retailer posted a mixed quarter. Revenue fell below Street forecasts, while earnings of $1.23 per share did beat the consensus estimate of $1.00.</p><p><blockquote>Dollar Tree(DLTR)——折扣零售商Dollar Tree公布季度业绩好坏参半后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌5.7%。收入低于华尔街预期，而每股收益1.23美元确实超出了市场普遍预期的1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> J.M. Smucker(SJM) – The food producer earned an adjusted $1.90 per share for its latest quarter, 4 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above Wall Street projections. However, Smucker cut its full-year forecast, noting higher input costs and supply chain disruption. Shares lost 3.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>J.M.Smucker（SJM）——这家食品生产商最近一个季度调整后每股收益为1.90美元，比预期高出4美分，收入略高于华尔街的预测。然而，Smucker下调了全年预测，指出投入成本上升和供应链中断。盘前股价下跌3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer’s shares slid 4% in the premarket, as revenue fell below analyst forecasts. Abercrombie did report an adjusted profit of $1.70 per share, compared with a 77-cent consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie&amp;Fitch(ANF)——由于收入低于分析师预期，这家服装零售商的股价在盘前下跌4%。Abercrombie确实公布了调整后每股利润1.70美元，而市场普遍预期为77美分。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com(CRM) – Salesforce earned an adjusted $1.48 per share for the second quarter, beating the 92 cents consensus estimate, with revenue also topping Wall Street forecasts. Salesforce also issued an upbeat outlook as companies continue to shift applications to the cloud. Shares rose 2.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com(CRM)–Salesforce第二季度调整后每股收益为1.48美元，超出市场普遍预期的92美分，收入也超出华尔街预期。随着企业继续将应用程序转移到云端，Salesforce也发布了乐观的前景。股价在盘前交易中上涨2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Ulta Beauty(ULTA) – Ulta shares rallied 6.2% in the premarket after it more than doubled the $2.59 consensus estimate with a quarterly profit of $4.56 per share. The cosmetics retailer’s revenue beat estimates as well, and it raised its full-year outlook as an overall improvement in the beauty industry continues.</p><p><blockquote>Ulta Beauty(ULTA)–Ulta股价盘前上涨6.2%，季度利润为每股4.56美元，是市场普遍预期2.59美元的两倍多。这家化妆品零售商的收入也超出了预期，随着美容行业整体改善的持续，该公司上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> Williams-Sonoma(WSM) – Williams-Sonoma surged 13.6% in premarket trading following top and bottom-line beats as well as a raised outlook and a 20% dividend increase. The housewares retailer reported an adjusted quarterly profit of $3.24 per share compared with the $2.61 consensus estimate, as the pandemic-induced focus on homes and home decor continued.</p><p><blockquote>Williams-Sonoma(WSM)-在营收和利润超出预期、前景上调和股息增加20%后，Williams-Sonoma在盘前交易中飙升13.6%。这家家居用品零售商报告调整后季度利润为每股3.24美元，而市场普遍预期为2.61美元，原因是大流行引发的对家居和家居装饰的关注仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> Box(BOX) – Box beat estimates by 2 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of 21 cents per share, while the cloud storage company’s revenue also came in above analyst forecasts. Box also raised its full-year revenue guidance, saying it continues to benefit from the “megatrend” of digital transformation. However, shares fell 1.7% in premarket action</p><p><blockquote>Box(BOX)——Box调整后季度利润为每股21美分，超出预期2美分，而这家云存储公司的收入也高于分析师预测。Box还上调了全年营收指引，称继续受益于数字化转型的“大趋势”。然而，股价在盘前下跌1.7%</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake(SNOW) – Snowflake lost an adjusted 4 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 15-cent loss anticipated by Wall Street, while the database software company’s revenue came in above consensus. Sales more than doubled from a year ago, but its overall loss widened compared with a year earlier. Snowflake jumped 5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake(SNOW)——Snowflake最近一个季度调整后每股亏损4美分，低于华尔街预期的15美分亏损，而这家数据库软件公司的收入高于市场预期。销售额比一年前增长了一倍多，但整体亏损较一年前扩大。Snowflake在盘前交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> Pure Storage(PSTG) – Pure Storage soared 13.4% in the premarket after it nearly tripled the 5-cent consensus estimate with adjusted quarterly earnings of 14 cents per share. The cloud storage company’s revenue also topped Street projections as subscription revenue rose 31% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>Pure Storage(PSTG)-Pure Storage盘前股价飙升13.4%，调整后季度收益为每股14美分，几乎是市场普遍预期5美分的三倍。这家云存储公司的收入也超出了华尔街的预测，订阅收入同比增长31%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Autodesk(ADSK) – Autodesk shares tumbled 7.5% in premarket trading, as quarterly revenue was merely in line with estimates and its current-quarter earnings guidance disappointed investors. Autodesk did beat estimates by 8 cents for its latest quarter with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share.</p><p><blockquote>欧特克(ADSK)——欧特克股价在盘前交易中下跌7.5%，原因是季度收入仅符合预期，且本季度盈利指引令投资者失望。Autodesk最近一个季度的调整后季度收益为每股1.21美元，超出预期8美分。</blockquote></p><p> Western Digital(WDC) – Western Digital is in talks for a possible $20 billion merger with Japanese chipmaker Kioxia, according to multiple reports. Talks are said to have heated up in recent weeks, and a deal could be reached as early as mid-September, according to people familiar with the matter. Western Digital rose 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>西部数据(WDC)——据多份报道，西部数据正在与日本芯片制造商铠侠就可能进行200亿美元的合并进行谈判。据知情人士透露，最近几周，谈判据说已经升温，最早可能在9月中旬达成协议。西部数据盘前上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-26 20:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四小幅走低，此前一天，标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘新高。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:33 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 40 points, or 0.11%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 0.75 points, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 19 points, or 0.12%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:33，道指e-mini上涨40点，涨幅0.11%，标普500 e-mini下跌0.75点，涨幅0.02%，纳斯达克100 e-mini下跌19点，涨幅0.12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833c44beffe5ea2359adfa1b85af4f96\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Initial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, hovering around pandemic-era lows as the jobs market shows further signs of healing.</p><p><blockquote>随着就业市场显示出进一步的复苏迹象，首次申请失业保险的人数在过去一周几乎没有变化，徘徊在大流行时期的低点附近。</blockquote></p><p> First-time filings totaled 353,000 for the week ended Aug. 14, a slight increase from the previous week's 349,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was slightly worse than the 350,000 Dow Jones estimate.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四报告称，截至8月14日当周，首次申请总数为353,000份，较前一周的349,000份略有增加。这比道琼斯估计的35万人略差。</blockquote></p><p> A separate economic reading showed that gross domestic product increased at a 6.6% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to the second estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department. That was ahead of the 6.5% initial estimate but a notch below the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.</p><p><blockquote>根据商务部周四的第二次估计，另一项经济数据显示，第二季度国内生产总值年化增长率为6.6%。这高于6.5%的初步估计，但低于道琼斯6.7%的估计。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton Interactive,Gap and Dell Technologies are scheduled to post results after markets close.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton Interactive、Gap和Dell Technologies计划在收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> Coty(COTY) – The cosmetics maker’s shares added 5.1% in the premarket after it said it expects a return to annual sales growth this year. Coty’s adjusted loss for its latest quarter was 9 cents per share, 3 cents wider than expected, but sales did come in above Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>科蒂(COTY)——这家化妆品制造商表示预计今年销售额将恢复年度增长，其股价在盘前上涨5.1%。科蒂最近一个季度的调整后亏损为每股9美分，比预期高出3美分，但销售额确实高于华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Dollar General(DG) – The discount retailer beat estimates by 10 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.69 per share and revenue slightly above forecasts. Comparable store sales fell 4.7%, less than the 5.1% drop expected by analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. However, Dollar General did forecast lower-than-expected earnings for the full year, and its shares fell 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Dollar General(DG)——这家折扣零售商超出预期10美分，调整后季度收益为每股2.69美元，收入略高于预期。可比商店销售额下降4.7%，低于StreetAccount调查的分析师预期的5.1%降幅。不过，Dollar General确实预测全年盈利低于预期，其股价在盘前交易中下跌4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Dollar Tree(DLTR) – Dollar Tree shares fell 5.7% in premarket trading after the discount retailer posted a mixed quarter. Revenue fell below Street forecasts, while earnings of $1.23 per share did beat the consensus estimate of $1.00.</p><p><blockquote>Dollar Tree(DLTR)——折扣零售商Dollar Tree公布季度业绩好坏参半后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌5.7%。收入低于华尔街预期，而每股收益1.23美元确实超出了市场普遍预期的1.00美元。</blockquote></p><p> J.M. Smucker(SJM) – The food producer earned an adjusted $1.90 per share for its latest quarter, 4 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above Wall Street projections. However, Smucker cut its full-year forecast, noting higher input costs and supply chain disruption. Shares lost 3.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>J.M.Smucker（SJM）——这家食品生产商最近一个季度调整后每股收益为1.90美元，比预期高出4美分，收入略高于华尔街的预测。然而，Smucker下调了全年预测，指出投入成本上升和供应链中断。盘前股价下跌3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer’s shares slid 4% in the premarket, as revenue fell below analyst forecasts. Abercrombie did report an adjusted profit of $1.70 per share, compared with a 77-cent consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie&amp;Fitch(ANF)——由于收入低于分析师预期，这家服装零售商的股价在盘前下跌4%。Abercrombie确实公布了调整后每股利润1.70美元，而市场普遍预期为77美分。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com(CRM) – Salesforce earned an adjusted $1.48 per share for the second quarter, beating the 92 cents consensus estimate, with revenue also topping Wall Street forecasts. Salesforce also issued an upbeat outlook as companies continue to shift applications to the cloud. Shares rose 2.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com(CRM)–Salesforce第二季度调整后每股收益为1.48美元，超出市场普遍预期的92美分，收入也超出华尔街预期。随着企业继续将应用程序转移到云端，Salesforce也发布了乐观的前景。股价在盘前交易中上涨2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Ulta Beauty(ULTA) – Ulta shares rallied 6.2% in the premarket after it more than doubled the $2.59 consensus estimate with a quarterly profit of $4.56 per share. The cosmetics retailer’s revenue beat estimates as well, and it raised its full-year outlook as an overall improvement in the beauty industry continues.</p><p><blockquote>Ulta Beauty(ULTA)–Ulta股价盘前上涨6.2%，季度利润为每股4.56美元，是市场普遍预期2.59美元的两倍多。这家化妆品零售商的收入也超出了预期，随着美容行业整体改善的持续，该公司上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> Williams-Sonoma(WSM) – Williams-Sonoma surged 13.6% in premarket trading following top and bottom-line beats as well as a raised outlook and a 20% dividend increase. The housewares retailer reported an adjusted quarterly profit of $3.24 per share compared with the $2.61 consensus estimate, as the pandemic-induced focus on homes and home decor continued.</p><p><blockquote>Williams-Sonoma(WSM)-在营收和利润超出预期、前景上调和股息增加20%后，Williams-Sonoma在盘前交易中飙升13.6%。这家家居用品零售商报告调整后季度利润为每股3.24美元，而市场普遍预期为2.61美元，原因是大流行引发的对家居和家居装饰的关注仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> Box(BOX) – Box beat estimates by 2 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of 21 cents per share, while the cloud storage company’s revenue also came in above analyst forecasts. Box also raised its full-year revenue guidance, saying it continues to benefit from the “megatrend” of digital transformation. However, shares fell 1.7% in premarket action</p><p><blockquote>Box(BOX)——Box调整后季度利润为每股21美分，超出预期2美分，而这家云存储公司的收入也高于分析师预测。Box还上调了全年营收指引，称继续受益于数字化转型的“大趋势”。然而，股价在盘前下跌1.7%</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake(SNOW) – Snowflake lost an adjusted 4 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 15-cent loss anticipated by Wall Street, while the database software company’s revenue came in above consensus. Sales more than doubled from a year ago, but its overall loss widened compared with a year earlier. Snowflake jumped 5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake(SNOW)——Snowflake最近一个季度调整后每股亏损4美分，低于华尔街预期的15美分亏损，而这家数据库软件公司的收入高于市场预期。销售额比一年前增长了一倍多，但整体亏损较一年前扩大。Snowflake在盘前交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> Pure Storage(PSTG) – Pure Storage soared 13.4% in the premarket after it nearly tripled the 5-cent consensus estimate with adjusted quarterly earnings of 14 cents per share. The cloud storage company’s revenue also topped Street projections as subscription revenue rose 31% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>Pure Storage(PSTG)-Pure Storage盘前股价飙升13.4%，调整后季度收益为每股14美分，几乎是市场普遍预期5美分的三倍。这家云存储公司的收入也超出了华尔街的预测，订阅收入同比增长31%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Autodesk(ADSK) – Autodesk shares tumbled 7.5% in premarket trading, as quarterly revenue was merely in line with estimates and its current-quarter earnings guidance disappointed investors. Autodesk did beat estimates by 8 cents for its latest quarter with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share.</p><p><blockquote>欧特克(ADSK)——欧特克股价在盘前交易中下跌7.5%，原因是季度收入仅符合预期，且本季度盈利指引令投资者失望。Autodesk最近一个季度的调整后季度收益为每股1.21美元，超出预期8美分。</blockquote></p><p> Western Digital(WDC) – Western Digital is in talks for a possible $20 billion merger with Japanese chipmaker Kioxia, according to multiple reports. Talks are said to have heated up in recent weeks, and a deal could be reached as early as mid-September, according to people familiar with the matter. Western Digital rose 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>西部数据(WDC)——据多份报道，西部数据正在与日本芯片制造商铠侠就可能进行200亿美元的合并进行谈判。据知情人士透露，最近几周，谈判据说已经升温，最早可能在9月中旬达成协议。西部数据盘前上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DELL":"戴尔","COTY":"科蒂","WDC":"西部数据",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","WSM":"Williams-Sonoma Inc","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","SJM":"斯马克","BOX":"Box Inc","ULTA":"Ulta美容","SNOW":"Snowflake","ADSK":"欧特克","PSTG":"Pure Storage Inc","CRM":"赛富时","ANF":"爱芬奇",".DJI":"道琼斯","DLTR":"美元树公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120384889","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record closing highs.\nAt 8:33 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 40 points, or 0.11%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 0.75 points, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 19 points, or 0.12%.\n\nInitial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, hovering around pandemic-era lows as the jobs market shows further signs of healing.\nFirst-time filings totaled 353,000 for the week ended Aug. 14, a slight increase from the previous week's 349,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was slightly worse than the 350,000 Dow Jones estimate.\nA separate economic reading showed that gross domestic product increased at a 6.6% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to the second estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department. That was ahead of the 6.5% initial estimate but a notch below the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.\nPeloton Interactive,Gap and Dell Technologies are scheduled to post results after markets close.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nCoty(COTY) – The cosmetics maker’s shares added 5.1% in the premarket after it said it expects a return to annual sales growth this year. Coty’s adjusted loss for its latest quarter was 9 cents per share, 3 cents wider than expected, but sales did come in above Wall Street forecasts.\nDollar General(DG) – The discount retailer beat estimates by 10 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.69 per share and revenue slightly above forecasts. Comparable store sales fell 4.7%, less than the 5.1% drop expected by analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. However, Dollar General did forecast lower-than-expected earnings for the full year, and its shares fell 4.2% in premarket trading.\nDollar Tree(DLTR) – Dollar Tree shares fell 5.7% in premarket trading after the discount retailer posted a mixed quarter. Revenue fell below Street forecasts, while earnings of $1.23 per share did beat the consensus estimate of $1.00.\nJ.M. Smucker(SJM) – The food producer earned an adjusted $1.90 per share for its latest quarter, 4 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above Wall Street projections. However, Smucker cut its full-year forecast, noting higher input costs and supply chain disruption. Shares lost 3.1% in the premarket.\nAbercrombie & Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer’s shares slid 4% in the premarket, as revenue fell below analyst forecasts. Abercrombie did report an adjusted profit of $1.70 per share, compared with a 77-cent consensus estimate.\nSalesforce.com(CRM) – Salesforce earned an adjusted $1.48 per share for the second quarter, beating the 92 cents consensus estimate, with revenue also topping Wall Street forecasts. Salesforce also issued an upbeat outlook as companies continue to shift applications to the cloud. Shares rose 2.6% in premarket trading.\nUlta Beauty(ULTA) – Ulta shares rallied 6.2% in the premarket after it more than doubled the $2.59 consensus estimate with a quarterly profit of $4.56 per share. The cosmetics retailer’s revenue beat estimates as well, and it raised its full-year outlook as an overall improvement in the beauty industry continues.\nWilliams-Sonoma(WSM) – Williams-Sonoma surged 13.6% in premarket trading following top and bottom-line beats as well as a raised outlook and a 20% dividend increase. The housewares retailer reported an adjusted quarterly profit of $3.24 per share compared with the $2.61 consensus estimate, as the pandemic-induced focus on homes and home decor continued.\nBox(BOX) – Box beat estimates by 2 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of 21 cents per share, while the cloud storage company’s revenue also came in above analyst forecasts. Box also raised its full-year revenue guidance, saying it continues to benefit from the “megatrend” of digital transformation. However, shares fell 1.7% in premarket action\nSnowflake(SNOW) – Snowflake lost an adjusted 4 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 15-cent loss anticipated by Wall Street, while the database software company’s revenue came in above consensus. Sales more than doubled from a year ago, but its overall loss widened compared with a year earlier. Snowflake jumped 5% in premarket trading.\nPure Storage(PSTG) – Pure Storage soared 13.4% in the premarket after it nearly tripled the 5-cent consensus estimate with adjusted quarterly earnings of 14 cents per share. The cloud storage company’s revenue also topped Street projections as subscription revenue rose 31% from a year ago.\nAutodesk(ADSK) – Autodesk shares tumbled 7.5% in premarket trading, as quarterly revenue was merely in line with estimates and its current-quarter earnings guidance disappointed investors. Autodesk did beat estimates by 8 cents for its latest quarter with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share.\nWestern Digital(WDC) – Western Digital is in talks for a possible $20 billion merger with Japanese chipmaker Kioxia, according to multiple reports. Talks are said to have heated up in recent weeks, and a deal could be reached as early as mid-September, according to people familiar with the matter. Western Digital rose 1.1% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SJM":0.9,"PTON":0.9,"ADSK":0.9,"WSM":0.9,"COTY":0.9,"BOX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"WDC":0.9,"PSTG":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SNOW":0.9,"DELL":0.9,"DLTR":0.9,"GPS":0.9,"ULTA":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"ANF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895717468,"gmtCreate":1628773526954,"gmtModify":1631893157097,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895717468","repostId":"1140749727","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140749727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628775487,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140749727?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Stock Slides nearly 6% on Morgan Stanley Downgrade, Memory Chip Sector Warning<blockquote>大摩评级下调，存储芯片行业警告，美光科技股价下跌近6%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140749727","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Micron Technology shares slumped nearly 6% after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their rating on the ","content":"<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;shares slumped&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6%&nbsp;after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their rating on the group amid a warning that 'winter is coming' for the global memory chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师因警告全球存储芯片行业“冬天即将来临”而下调美光科技评级，该公司股价下跌近6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8d2a465fc843b4324fc0a010c494ede\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"624\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore lowered his rating on the stock by one notch, to 'equal-weight', while slashing his price target by $30 to $75 a share, as the bank noted \"a challenging backdrop for forward returns” for Micron as \"DRAM conditions lose steam\" in its shift from mid to late cycle. Morgan Stanley also cut its rating on South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师Joseph Moore将该股评级下调一级，至“同等权重”，同时将目标价下调30美元至每股75美元，因为该行指出，美光科技“远期回报的背景充满挑战”，因为“DRAM状况在从周期中后期转向周期中失去动力”。摩根士丹利还下调了对韩国芯片制造商SK海力士的评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Stock Slides nearly 6% on Morgan Stanley Downgrade, Memory Chip Sector Warning<blockquote>大摩评级下调，存储芯片行业警告，美光科技股价下跌近6%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Stock Slides nearly 6% on Morgan Stanley Downgrade, Memory Chip Sector Warning<blockquote>大摩评级下调，存储芯片行业警告，美光科技股价下跌近6%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 21:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;shares slumped&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6%&nbsp;after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their rating on the group amid a warning that 'winter is coming' for the global memory chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师因警告全球存储芯片行业“冬天即将来临”而下调美光科技评级，该公司股价下跌近6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8d2a465fc843b4324fc0a010c494ede\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"624\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore lowered his rating on the stock by one notch, to 'equal-weight', while slashing his price target by $30 to $75 a share, as the bank noted \"a challenging backdrop for forward returns” for Micron as \"DRAM conditions lose steam\" in its shift from mid to late cycle. Morgan Stanley also cut its rating on South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师Joseph Moore将该股评级下调一级，至“同等权重”，同时将目标价下调30美元至每股75美元，因为该行指出，美光科技“远期回报的背景充满挑战”，因为“DRAM状况在从周期中后期转向周期中失去动力”。摩根士丹利还下调了对韩国芯片制造商SK海力士的评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-stock-slides-on-morgan-stanley-downgrade-dram-warning?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-stock-slides-on-morgan-stanley-downgrade-dram-warning?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140749727","content_text":"Micron Technology shares slumped nearly 6% after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their rating on the group amid a warning that 'winter is coming' for the global memory chip sector.\n\nMorgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore lowered his rating on the stock by one notch, to 'equal-weight', while slashing his price target by $30 to $75 a share, as the bank noted \"a challenging backdrop for forward returns” for Micron as \"DRAM conditions lose steam\" in its shift from mid to late cycle. Morgan Stanley also cut its rating on South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835505165,"gmtCreate":1629725760457,"gmtModify":1631893157052,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835505165","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821166735,"gmtCreate":1633706397145,"gmtModify":1633706431236,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821166735","repostId":"2173929300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880140597,"gmtCreate":1631027058619,"gmtModify":1631890745339,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880140597","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819843512,"gmtCreate":1630058523036,"gmtModify":1704955307339,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819843512","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891293590,"gmtCreate":1628389880610,"gmtModify":1633747459085,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls thank you","listText":"Like pls thank you","text":"Like pls thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891293590","repostId":"2157492839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147398216,"gmtCreate":1626332805735,"gmtModify":1633927776052,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147398216","repostId":"2151548988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148650422,"gmtCreate":1625973276766,"gmtModify":1633931211648,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like this","listText":"Like this","text":"Like this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148650422","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","SCHW":"嘉信理财","GME":"游戏驿站","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","BB":"黑莓","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NEGG":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"BB":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"CLOV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":823621901,"gmtCreate":1633619199260,"gmtModify":1633619202975,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823621901","repostId":"1170599877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869744076,"gmtCreate":1632324852595,"gmtModify":1632801195385,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869744076","repostId":"1146187405","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891291032,"gmtCreate":1628389894726,"gmtModify":1633747458842,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891291032","repostId":"1180529438","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180529438","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628386129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180529438?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180529438","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The United States Securities and Exchange Commission  sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance  protocol over activities involved with the project for the first time.What Happened: According to a Friday SEC announcement, the agency has sued Cayman Islands-based Blockchain Credit Partners and two of its top executives over allegedly selling unregistered securities through its DeFi Money Market platform from February 2020 to February 2021. The firm purported","content":"<p><div> The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）就该项目涉及的活动起诉了负责开发分散金融（DeFi）协议的组织...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）就该项目涉及的活动起诉了负责开发分散金融（DeFi）协议的组织...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180529438","content_text":"The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project for the first time.\nWhat Happened: According to a Friday SEC announcement, the agency has sued Cayman Islands-based Blockchain Credit Partners and two of its top executives over allegedly selling unregistered securities through its DeFi Money Market platform from February 2020 to February 2021. The firm purportedly sold over $30 million worth of two types of tokens that the SEC deemed to be securities that should have been registered as such.\nThe SEC notes that Blockchain Credit Partners founders Gregory Keough and Derek Acree will have to pay fines of $125,000 while the company itself also agreed to pay $12.8 million in disgorgement. The settlement does not indicate an admition or denial the accusations.\nNew Game, Old Rules?\nSEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewal explained that \"full and honest disclosure remains the cornerstone of our securities laws — no matter what technologies are used to offer and sell those securities.\" This comment makes it very clear that slapping the DeFi label on a project and hoping to avoid regulation this way works no better than calling it a \"utility token\" prevented falling under the SEC's scrutiny during 2017's initial coin offering craze.\nThe SEC is trying to send the clear rule that the new kind of financial organizations that operate on blockchains have to still play by the old rules that govern traditional finance. At the same time, market onlookers are not sure if the regulator is actually right.\nIn a way, it is a tour de force where the regulator wins every time it has a way to take enforcement action, but these new organizations potentially have a very real way to make enforcement impossible — or at the very least impractical. The only protection against enforcement by the SEC and other regulators is decentralization and the only reason why the SEC was able to act in this case is that a centralized organization such as Blockchain Credit Partners exists.\nWhat's Next:If no company exists and all that there is to a DeFi protocol is a set of smart contracts deployed on a blockchain by a group of anonymous developers scattered around the world there is very little that the SEC can do short of attacking the blockchain itself. This is where the decentralization of the underlying blockchain comes into play: will the regulators for instance be able to force Ethereum's (CRYPTO: ETH) core development team to write an update stopping such a project?\nIf the regulators would actually be able to force the blockchain's developers to write such an update, would node operators and miners or stakers adopt this software or would they refuse to? Such situations will be the real test of the decentralization and reliability of any blockchain that many are waiting to happen. Regulators are seeing power slipping away between their fingers like sand, and they are going to try to grab it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173473378,"gmtCreate":1626683355294,"gmtModify":1633924962146,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173473378","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":874685936,"gmtCreate":1637766581136,"gmtModify":1637766581188,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874685936","repostId":"1119170686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858181565,"gmtCreate":1635004111422,"gmtModify":1635004111535,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858181565","repostId":"2177411104","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825626503,"gmtCreate":1634222741225,"gmtModify":1634222741225,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825626503","repostId":"1137577394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137577394","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634222446,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137577394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 22:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137577394","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading as Halloween movies hit theaters.\n\nAM","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading&nbsp;as Halloween movies hit theaters.</p><p><blockquote>随着万圣节电影上映，AMC院线股价在早盘交易中飙升超过7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825eb98d1defb7af0ffac3be4884f45a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> AMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.<b>On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.</b>There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>AMC延续了近期趋势，该股在过去一个月自由落体后继续找到支撑。<b>周三，AMC股价进一步上涨2.96%，收于37.91美元。</b>最近，meme股票的势头越来越大，因为互联网聊天室和Reddit论坛上的嗡嗡声指向另一次轧空尝试。</blockquote></p><p> AMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.<b>The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.</b>The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).</p><p><blockquote>周三，AMC apes再次让#AMCSqueeze标签成为社交媒体上的热门话题。<b>提及量激增是由于SEC宣布对Citadel Securities展开调查，该公司是散户投资者的头号公敌。</b>调查将调查Citadel的商业行为，其中可能包括卖空股票以及其与Robinhood（纳斯达克：HOOD）等按订单付费流经纪公司的关系。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.<b>A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season</b>. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年第三和第四季度相比，AMC的股票应该会受到强劲的季度环比和同比比较的帮助。<b>一系列新的好莱坞电影将在未来几周内上映，其中包括拉开万圣节季序幕的新电影《万圣节杀戮》</b>下周应该又是一个大周末，期待已久的《沙丘》电影将于10月22日上映。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升逾7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-14 22:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading&nbsp;as Halloween movies hit theaters.</p><p><blockquote>随着万圣节电影上映，AMC院线股价在早盘交易中飙升超过7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825eb98d1defb7af0ffac3be4884f45a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> AMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.<b>On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.</b>There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>AMC延续了近期趋势，该股在过去一个月自由落体后继续找到支撑。<b>周三，AMC股价进一步上涨2.96%，收于37.91美元。</b>最近，meme股票的势头越来越大，因为互联网聊天室和Reddit论坛上的嗡嗡声指向另一次轧空尝试。</blockquote></p><p> AMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.<b>The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.</b>The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).</p><p><blockquote>周三，AMC apes再次让#AMCSqueeze标签成为社交媒体上的热门话题。<b>提及量激增是由于SEC宣布对Citadel Securities展开调查，该公司是散户投资者的头号公敌。</b>调查将调查Citadel的商业行为，其中可能包括卖空股票以及其与Robinhood（纳斯达克：HOOD）等按订单付费流经纪公司的关系。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.<b>A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season</b>. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.</p><p><blockquote>与2020年第三和第四季度相比，AMC的股票应该会受到强劲的季度环比和同比比较的帮助。<b>一系列新的好莱坞电影将在未来几周内上映，其中包括拉开万圣节季序幕的新电影《万圣节杀戮》</b>下周应该又是一个大周末，期待已久的《沙丘》电影将于10月22日上映。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137577394","content_text":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading as Halloween movies hit theaters.\n\nAMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.\nAMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).\nAMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866846730,"gmtCreate":1632756193020,"gmtModify":1632798045353,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866846730","repostId":"1123391790","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123391790","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632754543,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123391790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123391790","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</li>  <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li>  <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现就显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</li><li>ASML正在全力以赴，但估值已经变得极度紧张，我们认为是时候获利了结或至少减少头寸了。</li><li>我们对该公司的基本面持乐观态度，并且仍然相信极紫外技术是芯片制造的未来。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We wrote a&nbsp;bullish article&nbsp;on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML)&nbsp;more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</p><p><blockquote>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML（纳斯达克股票代码：ASML）的看涨文章，此后该公司的表现显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&amp;D needed, this is what we said back then:</p><p><blockquote>我们的部分论点是，该行业正在成为自然垄断，因为很少有人能够匹配所需的极端投资和研发，这就是我们当时所说的：</blockquote></p><p>   Increasing complexity and R&amp;D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.  We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&amp;D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p><p><blockquote>日益增加的复杂性和研发成本已经将赌注提高到了未来很少有公司能够竞争的程度，从而增加了少数留下来的公司的回报。我们还提到，多年来的大量研发投资获得回报的时候到了，考虑到其毛利润的指数增长，我们似乎是对的，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p><p><blockquote>虽然考虑到创纪录的毛利率，该股理应获得较高的市销率，但我们认为约18倍的市销率已经过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML看涨论点的一部分是，尽管其收入具有周期性，但很容易观察到也有长期走高的趋势。ASML正在增加其市场份额，该行业几乎成为垄断。事实证明，在极紫外(EUV)设备方面，ASML是唯一的游戏，客户正在购买更多设备来满足半导体需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&amp;D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&amp;D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加和公司变得更加成功，它并没有减少R&amp;D费用，而是加倍投入比以往更多的资金用于R&amp;D。我们喜欢该公司不断投资于其未来，这将使竞争对手越来越难以赶上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p><p><blockquote>当我们在2019年撰写这篇看涨文章时，股价的EV/EBITDA约为18倍，而现在基于这一估值倍数，股价几乎高出3倍。股价的涨幅显然超过了盈利能力的涨幅。我们认为这是不可持续的，要么业务基本面赶上股价，要么股价调整到更合理的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>有一点没有改变，那就是公司资产负债表的实力。该公司继续拥有净正现金头寸，速动比率非常健康，高于1.0，速动资产多于流动负债。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，股息约为1%，该公司刚刚宣布打算将股息增加50%。如今，虽然该公司继续通过股息和股票回购来回报股东，但收益率已降至微不足道的0.38%。包括股息和股票回购在内的股东收益率略好于2%，而2019年约为3%。这些统计数据和股息压缩反映了股票变得多么昂贵。我们还认为，股票回购应该推迟，直到股价更接近公司的内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p><p><blockquote>最后，远期市盈率很好地捕捉了股票的价格。早在2019年，股票的TTM和远期市盈率均约为24倍。自那时以来，这两个倍数都增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Advantages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its&nbsp;order book filling, and it is projecting a&nbsp;trillion dollar semiconductor market&nbsp;by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&amp;D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测的ASML竞争优势变得更强的事情已经成为现实。ASML基本上正在销售其订单填充所能制造的所有机器，并预计到2030年半导体市场将达到1万亿美元，是目前规模的两倍。鉴于其当前产品的实力以及该公司仍在研发上投入巨资以进一步改进机器的事实，ASML很可能会获得将该行业产能翻倍所需的大量资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这就是我们当时的推理，让我们预测该公司将主导其行业：</blockquote></p><p> While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为市场目前将ASML视为一家未来具有巨大增长机会的优质技术公司，但市场似乎忽略了EUV光刻技术的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&amp;D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg&nbsp;told Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>随着机器复杂性的增加和所需的R&amp;D投资的增加，保持摩尔定律和技术节点萎缩的投资正在迅速增加。这增加了风险，每一代新一代都会迫使竞争对手出局，给剩下的少数公司更多的定价权，并使他们的知识产权更有价值。然而，一些分析师开始理解这些发展的重要性。例如，InsingerGilissen Bankiers分析师Jos Versteeg告诉彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p><p><blockquote>ASML认为其订单组合在2019年整体情况良好，这在很大程度上是因为它进入了EUV，而他们是唯一的参与者。未来七年的前景看起来非常光明。</blockquote></p><p> These are incredibly complex machines that&nbsp;weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and&nbsp;incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity&nbsp;to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是极其复杂的机器，重量超过100吨，需要使用高功率激光和等离子体，并且需要数年时间和令人难以置信的工程创造力才能工作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p><p><blockquote>EUV光刻技术不仅对于保持缩小技术节点至关重要，而且其采用也为客户带来了一些附带好处。其中包括缩短周期时间、简化流程和降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>出于这些原因，一些半导体技术领导者正在为EUV系统建设大量产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p><p><blockquote>虽然ASML的基本面一如既往地强劲，但我们相信大部分好消息已经反映在股价中。我们认为现在是出售的好时机，或者至少是配对投资。ASML确实是一家独一无二的公司，以一种罕见的方式主导着行业。它已经将竞争对手远远甩在身后，并且正在以良好的盈利能力和有吸引力的利润率增长。然而，归根结底，一项成功的投资既取决于公司的质量，也取决于支付的价格，而目前价格非常高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 22:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</li>  <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li>  <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现就显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</li><li>ASML正在全力以赴，但估值已经变得极度紧张，我们认为是时候获利了结或至少减少头寸了。</li><li>我们对该公司的基本面持乐观态度，并且仍然相信极紫外技术是芯片制造的未来。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We wrote a&nbsp;bullish article&nbsp;on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML)&nbsp;more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</p><p><blockquote>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于ASML（纳斯达克股票代码：ASML）的看涨文章，此后该公司的表现显着优于标准普尔500指数和我们自己的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&amp;D needed, this is what we said back then:</p><p><blockquote>我们的部分论点是，该行业正在成为自然垄断，因为很少有人能够匹配所需的极端投资和研发，这就是我们当时所说的：</blockquote></p><p>   Increasing complexity and R&amp;D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.  We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&amp;D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p><p><blockquote>日益增加的复杂性和研发成本已经将赌注提高到了未来很少有公司能够竞争的程度，从而增加了少数留下来的公司的回报。我们还提到，多年来的大量研发投资获得回报的时候到了，考虑到其毛利润的指数增长，我们似乎是对的，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p><p><blockquote>虽然考虑到创纪录的毛利率，该股理应获得较高的市销率，但我们认为约18倍的市销率已经过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML看涨论点的一部分是，尽管其收入具有周期性，但很容易观察到也有长期走高的趋势。ASML正在增加其市场份额，该行业几乎成为垄断。事实证明，在极紫外(EUV)设备方面，ASML是唯一的游戏，客户正在购买更多设备来满足半导体需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&amp;D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&amp;D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加和公司变得更加成功，它并没有减少R&amp;D费用，而是加倍投入比以往更多的资金用于R&amp;D。我们喜欢该公司不断投资于其未来，这将使竞争对手越来越难以赶上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p><p><blockquote>当我们在2019年撰写这篇看涨文章时，股价的EV/EBITDA约为18倍，而现在基于这一估值倍数，股价几乎高出3倍。股价的涨幅显然超过了盈利能力的涨幅。我们认为这是不可持续的，要么业务基本面赶上股价，要么股价调整到更合理的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>有一点没有改变，那就是公司资产负债表的实力。该公司继续拥有净正现金头寸，速动比率非常健康，高于1.0，速动资产多于流动负债。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，股息约为1%，该公司刚刚宣布打算将股息增加50%。如今，虽然该公司继续通过股息和股票回购来回报股东，但收益率已降至微不足道的0.38%。包括股息和股票回购在内的股东收益率略好于2%，而2019年约为3%。这些统计数据和股息压缩反映了股票变得多么昂贵。我们还认为，股票回购应该推迟，直到股价更接近公司的内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p><p><blockquote>最后，远期市盈率很好地捕捉了股票的价格。早在2019年，股票的TTM和远期市盈率均约为24倍。自那时以来，这两个倍数都增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Advantages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its&nbsp;order book filling, and it is projecting a&nbsp;trillion dollar semiconductor market&nbsp;by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&amp;D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测的ASML竞争优势变得更强的事情已经成为现实。ASML基本上正在销售其订单填充所能制造的所有机器，并预计到2030年半导体市场将达到1万亿美元，是目前规模的两倍。鉴于其当前产品的实力以及该公司仍在研发上投入巨资以进一步改进机器的事实，ASML很可能会获得将该行业产能翻倍所需的大量资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这就是我们当时的推理，让我们预测该公司将主导其行业：</blockquote></p><p> While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们认为市场目前将ASML视为一家未来具有巨大增长机会的优质技术公司，但市场似乎忽略了EUV光刻技术的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&amp;D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg&nbsp;told Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>随着机器复杂性的增加和所需的R&amp;D投资的增加，保持摩尔定律和技术节点萎缩的投资正在迅速增加。这增加了风险，每一代新一代都会迫使竞争对手出局，给剩下的少数公司更多的定价权，并使他们的知识产权更有价值。然而，一些分析师开始理解这些发展的重要性。例如，InsingerGilissen Bankiers分析师Jos Versteeg告诉彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p><p><blockquote>ASML认为其订单组合在2019年整体情况良好，这在很大程度上是因为它进入了EUV，而他们是唯一的参与者。未来七年的前景看起来非常光明。</blockquote></p><p> These are incredibly complex machines that&nbsp;weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and&nbsp;incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity&nbsp;to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是极其复杂的机器，重量超过100吨，需要使用高功率激光和等离子体，并且需要数年时间和令人难以置信的工程创造力才能工作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p><p><blockquote>EUV光刻技术不仅对于保持缩小技术节点至关重要，而且其采用也为客户带来了一些附带好处。其中包括缩短周期时间、简化流程和降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>出于这些原因，一些半导体技术领导者正在为EUV系统建设大量产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p><p><blockquote>虽然ASML的基本面一如既往地强劲，但我们相信大部分好消息已经反映在股价中。我们认为现在是出售的好时机，或者至少是配对投资。ASML确实是一家独一无二的公司，以一种罕见的方式主导着行业。它已经将竞争对手远远甩在身后，并且正在以良好的盈利能力和有吸引力的利润率增长。然而，归根结底，一项成功的投资既取决于公司的质量，也取决于支付的价格，而目前价格非常高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123391790","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.\nWe are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML) more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nPart of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&D needed, this is what we said back then:\n\n Increasing complexity and R&D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.\n\nWe also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.\nData by YCharts\nWhile shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.\nData by YCharts\nPart of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.\nData by YCharts\nAs revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.\nData by YCharts\nValuation\nWhen we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.\nData by YCharts\nOne thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.\nData by YCharts\nBack in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.\nData by YCharts\nFinally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.\nData by YCharts\nCompetitive Advantages\nWhat we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its order book filling, and it is projecting a trillion dollar semiconductor market by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.\nLooking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:\nWhile we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.\nThe investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg told Bloomberg:\nASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.\nThese are incredibly complex machines that weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity to get to work.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nNot only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nFor these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.\nConclusion\nWhile ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886971601,"gmtCreate":1631546841103,"gmtModify":1631890745299,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886971601","repostId":"2166303094","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811876701,"gmtCreate":1630313365503,"gmtModify":1704958247417,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811876701","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}