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日光城的幸运游侠

日光城的幸运游侠

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日光城的幸运游侠

01-10

微软如果没有OpenAI这个云业务超级大客，其实也并没有什么想象空间了

“大空头”迈克尔・伯里披露持有甲骨文看跌期权，称不会做空Meta、谷歌和微软

日光城的幸运游侠

2023-08-02

从未开始，何来结束？

第四次工业革命，18个小时就结束了？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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月，该公司发布了一份乐观的云计算业务展望报告，释放出人工智能相关需求激增的信号，其股价也因此在一个交易日内暴涨 36%。然而，随着投资者将关注点转向企业不断攀升的资本开支、部分云计算交易的结构争议，以及因数据中心扩张而日益高企的债务规模，这些涨幅很快便化为泡影。截至年末，甲骨文股价较 9 月的峰值已下跌约 40%。</p><p>目前，甲骨文的未偿债务规模约达 950 亿美元，在彭博高评级指数的非金融企业发行人中，其债务体量位居榜首。</p><p>伯里曾因在 2008 年金融危机期间做空美国房地产市场声名大噪。他表示，自己会避免做空那些业务版图远超人工智能领域的大型科技企业，并以元宇宙平台公司（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司字母表公司以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>公司为例进行说明。</p><p>伯里在专栏中写道：“如果我做空元宇宙平台公司，就等同于同时做空其在社交媒体与广告领域的霸主地位；如果我做空字母表公司，就相当于做空了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>各类搜索服务、安卓操作系统以及韦莫自动驾驶等一系列业务；如果我做空微软公司，就是在做空这家全球办公生产力软件即服务巨头。这些大型企业的股票，绝非单纯押注人工智能领域的做空标的。”</p><p>他指出，上述三家企业或许会逐步收紧开支，消化因产能过剩产生的亏损，甚至可能对资产进行减记，但它们在各自核心业务领域的主导地位仍将稳固。“这三家公司绝不会就此衰落。” 伯里补充道。</p><p>伯里还表示，若人工智能公司 OpenAI 的估值达到 5000 亿美元，他将会选择做空该公司。此番言论也凸显出，他对于人工智能产业的发展节奏及其商业经济价值，秉持着更为广泛的质疑态度。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-10/doc-inhfukyv2241442.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>因抨击人工智能热潮而在近几个月备受关注的“大空头”、知名投资人迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），目前正做空甲骨文公司。伯里于周五收盘后在Substack专栏发文称，自己持有甲骨文的看跌期权。通常而言，标的资产价格下跌时，看跌期权的价值便会随之上涨。伯里还提到，除期权持仓外，过去六个月他也直接做空了甲骨文的股票。早在去年 11 月，他就曾公开披露过对人工智能芯片制造商英伟达公司及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-10/doc-inhfukyv2241442.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"LU0757359954.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC MF","BK4097":"系统软件","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","SG9999015341.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD-H","LU0347712357.USD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF 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Plus","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-10/doc-inhfukyv2241442.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2602300583","content_text":"因抨击人工智能热潮而在近几个月备受关注的“大空头”、知名投资人迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），目前正做空甲骨文公司。伯里于周五收盘后在Substack专栏发文称，自己持有甲骨文的看跌期权。通常而言，标的资产价格下跌时，看跌期权的价值便会随之上涨。伯里还提到，除期权持仓外，过去六个月他也直接做空了甲骨文的股票。早在去年 11 月，他就曾公开披露过对人工智能芯片制造商英伟达公司及Palantir Technologies Inc． 的看空持仓。甲骨文公司素以数据库软件业务闻名，如今正大举进军云计算服务领域。该业务需要投入巨额成本扩建数据中心，为此甲骨文背负了高额债务。针对有读者询问其为何选择做空英伟达而非甲骨文，伯里在专栏中写道：“我不看好该公司当前的业务布局与投资方向。它本不必采取这样的战略，我也无法理解其背后的动因，或许只是出于自负吧。”他没有透露有关看跌期权的细节。伯里此番表态的背景，是甲骨文股价过去一年的剧烈波动。去年 9 月，该公司发布了一份乐观的云计算业务展望报告，释放出人工智能相关需求激增的信号，其股价也因此在一个交易日内暴涨 36%。然而，随着投资者将关注点转向企业不断攀升的资本开支、部分云计算交易的结构争议，以及因数据中心扩张而日益高企的债务规模，这些涨幅很快便化为泡影。截至年末，甲骨文股价较 9 月的峰值已下跌约 40%。目前，甲骨文的未偿债务规模约达 950 亿美元，在彭博高评级指数的非金融企业发行人中，其债务体量位居榜首。伯里曾因在 2008 年金融危机期间做空美国房地产市场声名大噪。他表示，自己会避免做空那些业务版图远超人工智能领域的大型科技企业，并以元宇宙平台公司（Meta）、谷歌母公司字母表公司以及微软公司为例进行说明。伯里在专栏中写道：“如果我做空元宇宙平台公司，就等同于同时做空其在社交媒体与广告领域的霸主地位；如果我做空字母表公司，就相当于做空了谷歌各类搜索服务、安卓操作系统以及韦莫自动驾驶等一系列业务；如果我做空微软公司，就是在做空这家全球办公生产力软件即服务巨头。这些大型企业的股票，绝非单纯押注人工智能领域的做空标的。”他指出，上述三家企业或许会逐步收紧开支，消化因产能过剩产生的亏损，甚至可能对资产进行减记，但它们在各自核心业务领域的主导地位仍将稳固。“这三家公司绝不会就此衰落。” 伯里补充道。伯里还表示，若人工智能公司 OpenAI 的估值达到 5000 亿美元，他将会选择做空该公司。此番言论也凸显出，他对于人工智能产业的发展节奏及其商业经济价值，秉持着更为广泛的质疑态度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.95}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":204630850797816,"gmtCreate":1690990040476,"gmtModify":1690990358244,"author":{"id":"36010612269100","authorId":"36010612269100","name":"日光城的幸运游侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1588d68611f6c690b11b1b57e60cc7a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36010612269100","authorIdStr":"36010612269100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"从未开始，何来结束？","listText":"从未开始，何来结束？","text":"从未开始，何来结束？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/204630850797816","repostId":"1124454060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124454060","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"早报天天读，汇集天下事，做最好听的有声财经播报。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇APP","id":"11","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d"},"pubTimestamp":1690986144,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124454060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-02 22:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"第四次工业革命，18个小时就结束了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124454060","media":"格隆汇APP","summary":"很明显，从第三次工业革命开始，技术爆发从主干发散到了各个分支。所以第三次工业革命，既没有明确定义，也没有明确标志。那么，接下来的第四次工业革命，该怎么走？瓜都吃了这么久了，第四次工业革命啊，不来赌一把？没想到，被寄予厚望的第四次工业革命，才18个小时就结束了……总之，可千万不要认为第四次工业革命真的已经到来，然后长线持仓。它的命更短，2.5个小时就结束了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSC\">美国超导</a>盘中一度跌超24%，最低触及12.2美元，意味着周一超过60%的涨幅回吐大约一半。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8595c92b1feaeaa27fddb004cb47a0af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>人类历史上，有过3次重大技术革命。</p><p><strong><em>第一次，蒸汽革命，机械替代人力，直接颠覆了几千年的劳动力市场。</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>第二次，电气革命，机械工作的效率，进入高速增长期。</em></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>第三次，计算机、互联网、生物技术、航天技术、纳米技术等等。</em></strong></p><p>很明显，从第三次工业革命开始，技术爆发从主干发散到了各个分支。</p><p>所以第三次工业革命，既没有明确定义，也没有明确标志。</p><p>那么，接下来的第四次工业革命，该怎么走？</p><p>是像前两次，直接出现一种划时代的超重磅技术，撼动整棵科技树？</p><p>还是像第三次，把什么新能源、3D打印、AI一锅乱炖？</p><p>如果想要飞跃式的进步，当然是像前两次技术革命那样，直接改变最底层的能源。</p><p>能源技术不突破，任何先进工业，都是不切实际的幻想。</p><p>合计一下，目前人类社会台面上的技术，AI、新能源这些，还不够格成为主干。</p><p>除了大名鼎鼎的可控核聚变，大概也只有普适的超导，才能担此重任。</p><p>凭什么？因为电。</p><p>电，妙不可言。</p><p>想当年，法拉第发现电磁感应现象，折腾出发电机的时候，还许多人嘲笑，说这种只会在导体里流动的东西有什么用？</p><p>如今任何人都知道，电革了蒸汽的命，成为现代科技最重要的载体。</p><p>今时今日，我们只有再革了电的命，才能革了现代科技的命，进入未来世界。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01</strong></p><p>最近几天，室温超导——这个对大众比较陌生的概念，频频霸榜热搜。</p><p>中国网民，什么时候这么爱学习了？</p><p>先简单回顾下事件的发展轨迹。</p><p>7月22日，韩国量子能源研究中心科学家Sukbae Lee，在arXiv上发表了两篇论文，宣布发现超导材料LK-99，并公开合成技术。</p><p>材料的合成方法极其简单，高中实验就能搞定。</p><p>可能有人不知道这是啥概念。</p><p><strong>这就好比，一个连话都不会说的猿人，比划着告诉你，他能造核弹。</strong></p><p>所以我的第一反应，就是离谱他妈给离谱开门——离谱到家了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/661eed085206fbc3ad2f362954627454\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p>超导材料是什么？</p><p>顾名思义，就是电阻率为0的超级导体。</p><p>做个不太形象的比喻。</p><p>游乐园里的滑滑梯，如果是用水泥做的粗糙面，小孩坐着根本滑不下去，必须要有人在后面推。</p><p>只有在表面铺一层光滑的铁皮，或者换成其他阻力小的材料，才能顺畅地滑下去。</p><p>超导差不多就是这么个意思。</p><p>从前，它只存在于理论中，需要极低温的条件才能实现，成本远高于经济价值。</p><p>比如我们曾经看到的磁悬浮列车，基本也就烧钱示范一下，没见到哪个国家真全面推广开了。</p><p>如果真能做出常温超导材料，第二次工业革命以来，上百年建立起来的工业格局，都将被重塑。</p><p>拿韩国这次的LK99来说，如果被证实是真的，别看落地需要个五年十年，那都不算个啥。</p><p>后面五十年都是它的舞台。</p><p>你想想，输电环节0损耗，那是个什么概念？</p><p>北非、沙特、中国新疆的广大沙漠，完全可以铺满光伏板，然后原封不动把电力传输到全世界。</p><p><strong>什么能源危机，都不再是个事。</strong></p><p>除了能源，在具体应用层面，想象力也很大。</p><p>比如现有的电动汽车，全部升级成超导汽车，不再有能源损耗，再在车顶再装个光伏板，那直接接近永动机了。</p><p>充电半小时，跑一年。</p><p>总之，就是爽，要是真的就好了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8e892ac22cdd3ec4509a425d2d79d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"/></p><p><strong>超导材料这玩意，因为过于颠覆，再加上最近一些年，造假的案例太多。</strong></p><p>所以再看到类似的新闻，第一反应就是又来了个科学骗子。</p><p>但是呢，在没有证伪之前，它会一直是全球关注焦点中的焦点。</p><p>验证时间至少需要一周，所以这几天全球吃瓜群众的心都提到嗓子眼上。</p><p>就等着看看这事是瞎扯淡还是真靠谱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ad7fcaaa6a46cc05fb6e98b58990dec\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\"/></p><p>7月31日，北航研究员在arXiv上提交论文，称未发现LK-99的超导性。</p><p>美国劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室研究员也在arXiv提交论文，认为LK-99可能存在超导性。</p><p>几乎同时，俄罗斯科学家宣布，成功制备出具备常温抗磁性的LK-99晶体，但结果显示比目前常用的热解石墨，只是抗磁性强很多。</p><p>但是，这也不能证明，LK99具有0电阻的特性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10cad86b5c8118cae5d909b1b3630195\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"555\"/></p><p>就在真相扑朔迷离之际，美国公司Taj Quantum公布照片，生成新发现一种易碎的石墨烯泡沫材料，也是室温超导材料。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70b1c1635a48264486c5b513212b48f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"804\"/></p><p>尽管该材料还没有经过同行评审，也没有第三方实验室评估，更没有提供性能数据。</p><p>但是，投资市场才不管你。</p><p>瓜都吃了这么久了，第四次工业革命啊，不来赌一把？</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>要说这两天什么板块最火，那肯定是常温超导啊。</p><p>隔夜，跟超导一毛钱关系，实际只是个电网公司的美国超导，因为有了这两个关键字，股票直接拉升60%，盘前一度涨超150%，比国内股民还懂追题材。</p><p>这么火热，股民们想不关注都难。</p><p>先捋一捋啊。</p><p>如果这玩意儿正成了，这种堪比工业革命的大事件，除了火力等传统能源，各行各业都会受益。</p><p>在A股，按规律来说，第一个被炒的通常是材料方向，比如这波实验的合成材料，氧化铅、硫酸铅、铜和磷涉及的材料公司，其次是室温超导的产品端公司。</p><p>基金方面，上游的有色ETF，其次电气工业得重造一遍，那么就是光伏ETF、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/561560\">电力ETF</a>，机床ETF，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/562910\">高端制造ETF</a>、新能源车ETF等等。</p><p>好像到处都是钱，从哪里先捡呢？</p><p>可惜，想法很美满，现实很骨感。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed86be0c97e6b428ea0fbd158175d186\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>昨天超导板块大涨7%，今天又继续高开。</p><p>今天被忽悠进去的散户，本以为能捡钱。</p><p>没想到啊，韩国团队居然主动辟谣了：</p><p><strong>论文存在缺陷，系一名成员擅自发布。</strong></p><p>A股超导板块，应声下跌，从开盘的8个点，到收盘只有3.3个点。</p><p>今天买进去的，全部套牢！</p><p>可能这几个家伙，就是美国超导的股东，昨天借拉高出货，赚麻了？</p><p>我废了这么大劲做实验，全世界几十亿人吃瓜，你居然说发错了？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/998df4c58a8a71f351f2aac5c9bff60d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p>从昨天收盘，到今天开盘。</p><p>没想到，被寄予厚望的第四次工业革命，才18个小时就结束了……</p><p>难怪有人说：<strong>现在最大的矛盾，就是科学进步太慢，而A股投资者学习速度太快。</strong></p><p>科学家都还一知半解呢，A股股民已经都要手搓LK-99了。</p><p>但搓出来了又怎么样？</p><p>别说A股的这些公司了，就是那家美国超导，跟超导材料也没几毛钱关系。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52aa95aeedd0887a6f47726eb2009ae1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p>目前，超导板块相关公司已经有20多家。</p><p>可以肯定的说，这20多家公司没有一个是研发常温超导的，他们研发的顶多就是高温高压超导，与这次炒作的概念完全是牛头不对马嘴。</p><p>所以，别想着会有真实的业绩支撑。</p><p>比如，股价处在历史最低点的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300647\">超频三</a>。</p><p>这家公司就是做散热器的，跟超导没有任何关系。</p><p><strong>只不过因为散热器里要用到导电材料，就莫名其妙被编入超导概念股。</strong></p><p>也就是说，它是冒牌货中的冒牌货。</p><p>即便最正宗的超导概念股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688122\">西部超导</a>，前两年才刚被爆炒过，涨幅一度高达四倍，哪有傻子去给别人抬轿子。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b540f681d9164daf942a13f739f374\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"873\"/></p><p>总之，可千万不要认为第四次工业革命真的已经到来，然后长线持仓。</p><p>玩过几年股票的都明白，股市里每隔一段时间都会经历一次划时代的“工业革命”，千万不要激动。</p><p>不就是革命嘛，有什么稀奇的？</p><p>这不，今天下午又来了“<strong>医药革命</strong>”。</p><p>它的命更短，2.5个小时就结束了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a19928d3c36fe99fcbea6fb7fc9f10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"1280\"/></p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>室温超导这个概念，实在是太美好了。</p><p>也无怪乎它炒作了一次又一次，热度永不衰减。</p><p>因为，在现代国际政治博弈中，有两个角色永不缺席：</p><p><strong>1. 能源；2. 能运运输。</strong></p><p>谁能把这俩货解决了，世界至少比现在和平90%。</p><p>谁能？超导材料能。</p><p>还是上面的原理，随手举几个例子。</p><p>数码产品基本不会坏，一辆雅迪电动车就能飙到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>怀疑人生，发电机一个抵得上过去的十个.....</p><p>而且，还能产生一些新的应用，比如如超导储能。</p><p>可以把电流储存在超导线圈里，相比电池电容有独到的优势。</p><p>另外，电和磁，实际上是一回事，有了电就等于有了磁。</p><p>一旦磁场技术有新的突破，可控核聚变也提上日程，那人类将进入无限能源时代。（相对人类族群的体量而言）</p><p>什么外太空旅行、火星殖民，都是水到渠成的事。</p><p>甚至，房子可以飘在空中，飞机可以装刹车挂倒挡，你也可以坐着魔毯去上上班....全世界都刷新了一圈。</p><p>有能源，就是任性！</p><p>总之，超导前途棒棒的。</p><p>要是真的就好了！</p><p>只可惜人类现有的理论模型，对高温超导来说都是连皮毛都算不上，更别说常温超导了。</p><p>那怎么办?遇事不决量子力学?</p><p>量子力学羞愧地低下了头，这事不归我管，去找找相对论?</p><p>可相对论也压根就没进过超导的门。</p><p>现有的理论物理是帮不上什么忙了。</p><p>对科学家而言，只能像古代炼丹师一样，继续拿各种材料，苦逼地碰运气。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>第四次工业革命，18个小时就结束了？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n第四次工业革命，18个小时就结束了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/11\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-08-02 22:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSC\">美国超导</a>盘中一度跌超24%，最低触及12.2美元，意味着周一超过60%的涨幅回吐大约一半。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8595c92b1feaeaa27fddb004cb47a0af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>人类历史上，有过3次重大技术革命。</p><p><strong><em>第一次，蒸汽革命，机械替代人力，直接颠覆了几千年的劳动力市场。</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>第二次，电气革命，机械工作的效率，进入高速增长期。</em></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>第三次，计算机、互联网、生物技术、航天技术、纳米技术等等。</em></strong></p><p>很明显，从第三次工业革命开始，技术爆发从主干发散到了各个分支。</p><p>所以第三次工业革命，既没有明确定义，也没有明确标志。</p><p>那么，接下来的第四次工业革命，该怎么走？</p><p>是像前两次，直接出现一种划时代的超重磅技术，撼动整棵科技树？</p><p>还是像第三次，把什么新能源、3D打印、AI一锅乱炖？</p><p>如果想要飞跃式的进步，当然是像前两次技术革命那样，直接改变最底层的能源。</p><p>能源技术不突破，任何先进工业，都是不切实际的幻想。</p><p>合计一下，目前人类社会台面上的技术，AI、新能源这些，还不够格成为主干。</p><p>除了大名鼎鼎的可控核聚变，大概也只有普适的超导，才能担此重任。</p><p>凭什么？因为电。</p><p>电，妙不可言。</p><p>想当年，法拉第发现电磁感应现象，折腾出发电机的时候，还许多人嘲笑，说这种只会在导体里流动的东西有什么用？</p><p>如今任何人都知道，电革了蒸汽的命，成为现代科技最重要的载体。</p><p>今时今日，我们只有再革了电的命，才能革了现代科技的命，进入未来世界。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01</strong></p><p>最近几天，室温超导——这个对大众比较陌生的概念，频频霸榜热搜。</p><p>中国网民，什么时候这么爱学习了？</p><p>先简单回顾下事件的发展轨迹。</p><p>7月22日，韩国量子能源研究中心科学家Sukbae Lee，在arXiv上发表了两篇论文，宣布发现超导材料LK-99，并公开合成技术。</p><p>材料的合成方法极其简单，高中实验就能搞定。</p><p>可能有人不知道这是啥概念。</p><p><strong>这就好比，一个连话都不会说的猿人，比划着告诉你，他能造核弹。</strong></p><p>所以我的第一反应，就是离谱他妈给离谱开门——离谱到家了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/661eed085206fbc3ad2f362954627454\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p>超导材料是什么？</p><p>顾名思义，就是电阻率为0的超级导体。</p><p>做个不太形象的比喻。</p><p>游乐园里的滑滑梯，如果是用水泥做的粗糙面，小孩坐着根本滑不下去，必须要有人在后面推。</p><p>只有在表面铺一层光滑的铁皮，或者换成其他阻力小的材料，才能顺畅地滑下去。</p><p>超导差不多就是这么个意思。</p><p>从前，它只存在于理论中，需要极低温的条件才能实现，成本远高于经济价值。</p><p>比如我们曾经看到的磁悬浮列车，基本也就烧钱示范一下，没见到哪个国家真全面推广开了。</p><p>如果真能做出常温超导材料，第二次工业革命以来，上百年建立起来的工业格局，都将被重塑。</p><p>拿韩国这次的LK99来说，如果被证实是真的，别看落地需要个五年十年，那都不算个啥。</p><p>后面五十年都是它的舞台。</p><p>你想想，输电环节0损耗，那是个什么概念？</p><p>北非、沙特、中国新疆的广大沙漠，完全可以铺满光伏板，然后原封不动把电力传输到全世界。</p><p><strong>什么能源危机，都不再是个事。</strong></p><p>除了能源，在具体应用层面，想象力也很大。</p><p>比如现有的电动汽车，全部升级成超导汽车，不再有能源损耗，再在车顶再装个光伏板，那直接接近永动机了。</p><p>充电半小时，跑一年。</p><p>总之，就是爽，要是真的就好了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8e892ac22cdd3ec4509a425d2d79d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"/></p><p><strong>超导材料这玩意，因为过于颠覆，再加上最近一些年，造假的案例太多。</strong></p><p>所以再看到类似的新闻，第一反应就是又来了个科学骗子。</p><p>但是呢，在没有证伪之前，它会一直是全球关注焦点中的焦点。</p><p>验证时间至少需要一周，所以这几天全球吃瓜群众的心都提到嗓子眼上。</p><p>就等着看看这事是瞎扯淡还是真靠谱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ad7fcaaa6a46cc05fb6e98b58990dec\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\"/></p><p>7月31日，北航研究员在arXiv上提交论文，称未发现LK-99的超导性。</p><p>美国劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室研究员也在arXiv提交论文，认为LK-99可能存在超导性。</p><p>几乎同时，俄罗斯科学家宣布，成功制备出具备常温抗磁性的LK-99晶体，但结果显示比目前常用的热解石墨，只是抗磁性强很多。</p><p>但是，这也不能证明，LK99具有0电阻的特性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10cad86b5c8118cae5d909b1b3630195\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"555\"/></p><p>就在真相扑朔迷离之际，美国公司Taj Quantum公布照片，生成新发现一种易碎的石墨烯泡沫材料，也是室温超导材料。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70b1c1635a48264486c5b513212b48f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"804\"/></p><p>尽管该材料还没有经过同行评审，也没有第三方实验室评估，更没有提供性能数据。</p><p>但是，投资市场才不管你。</p><p>瓜都吃了这么久了，第四次工业革命啊，不来赌一把？</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>要说这两天什么板块最火，那肯定是常温超导啊。</p><p>隔夜，跟超导一毛钱关系，实际只是个电网公司的美国超导，因为有了这两个关键字，股票直接拉升60%，盘前一度涨超150%，比国内股民还懂追题材。</p><p>这么火热，股民们想不关注都难。</p><p>先捋一捋啊。</p><p>如果这玩意儿正成了，这种堪比工业革命的大事件，除了火力等传统能源，各行各业都会受益。</p><p>在A股，按规律来说，第一个被炒的通常是材料方向，比如这波实验的合成材料，氧化铅、硫酸铅、铜和磷涉及的材料公司，其次是室温超导的产品端公司。</p><p>基金方面，上游的有色ETF，其次电气工业得重造一遍，那么就是光伏ETF、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/561560\">电力ETF</a>，机床ETF，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/562910\">高端制造ETF</a>、新能源车ETF等等。</p><p>好像到处都是钱，从哪里先捡呢？</p><p>可惜，想法很美满，现实很骨感。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed86be0c97e6b428ea0fbd158175d186\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>昨天超导板块大涨7%，今天又继续高开。</p><p>今天被忽悠进去的散户，本以为能捡钱。</p><p>没想到啊，韩国团队居然主动辟谣了：</p><p><strong>论文存在缺陷，系一名成员擅自发布。</strong></p><p>A股超导板块，应声下跌，从开盘的8个点，到收盘只有3.3个点。</p><p>今天买进去的，全部套牢！</p><p>可能这几个家伙，就是美国超导的股东，昨天借拉高出货，赚麻了？</p><p>我废了这么大劲做实验，全世界几十亿人吃瓜，你居然说发错了？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/998df4c58a8a71f351f2aac5c9bff60d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p>从昨天收盘，到今天开盘。</p><p>没想到，被寄予厚望的第四次工业革命，才18个小时就结束了……</p><p>难怪有人说：<strong>现在最大的矛盾，就是科学进步太慢，而A股投资者学习速度太快。</strong></p><p>科学家都还一知半解呢，A股股民已经都要手搓LK-99了。</p><p>但搓出来了又怎么样？</p><p>别说A股的这些公司了，就是那家美国超导，跟超导材料也没几毛钱关系。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52aa95aeedd0887a6f47726eb2009ae1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p>目前，超导板块相关公司已经有20多家。</p><p>可以肯定的说，这20多家公司没有一个是研发常温超导的，他们研发的顶多就是高温高压超导，与这次炒作的概念完全是牛头不对马嘴。</p><p>所以，别想着会有真实的业绩支撑。</p><p>比如，股价处在历史最低点的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300647\">超频三</a>。</p><p>这家公司就是做散热器的，跟超导没有任何关系。</p><p><strong>只不过因为散热器里要用到导电材料，就莫名其妙被编入超导概念股。</strong></p><p>也就是说，它是冒牌货中的冒牌货。</p><p>即便最正宗的超导概念股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688122\">西部超导</a>，前两年才刚被爆炒过，涨幅一度高达四倍，哪有傻子去给别人抬轿子。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b540f681d9164daf942a13f739f374\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"873\"/></p><p>总之，可千万不要认为第四次工业革命真的已经到来，然后长线持仓。</p><p>玩过几年股票的都明白，股市里每隔一段时间都会经历一次划时代的“工业革命”，千万不要激动。</p><p>不就是革命嘛，有什么稀奇的？</p><p>这不，今天下午又来了“<strong>医药革命</strong>”。</p><p>它的命更短，2.5个小时就结束了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a19928d3c36fe99fcbea6fb7fc9f10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"1280\"/></p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>室温超导这个概念，实在是太美好了。</p><p>也无怪乎它炒作了一次又一次，热度永不衰减。</p><p>因为，在现代国际政治博弈中，有两个角色永不缺席：</p><p><strong>1. 能源；2. 能运运输。</strong></p><p>谁能把这俩货解决了，世界至少比现在和平90%。</p><p>谁能？超导材料能。</p><p>还是上面的原理，随手举几个例子。</p><p>数码产品基本不会坏，一辆雅迪电动车就能飙到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>怀疑人生，发电机一个抵得上过去的十个.....</p><p>而且，还能产生一些新的应用，比如如超导储能。</p><p>可以把电流储存在超导线圈里，相比电池电容有独到的优势。</p><p>另外，电和磁，实际上是一回事，有了电就等于有了磁。</p><p>一旦磁场技术有新的突破，可控核聚变也提上日程，那人类将进入无限能源时代。（相对人类族群的体量而言）</p><p>什么外太空旅行、火星殖民，都是水到渠成的事。</p><p>甚至，房子可以飘在空中，飞机可以装刹车挂倒挡，你也可以坐着魔毯去上上班....全世界都刷新了一圈。</p><p>有能源，就是任性！</p><p>总之，超导前途棒棒的。</p><p>要是真的就好了！</p><p>只可惜人类现有的理论模型，对高温超导来说都是连皮毛都算不上，更别说常温超导了。</p><p>那怎么办?遇事不决量子力学?</p><p>量子力学羞愧地低下了头，这事不归我管，去找找相对论?</p><p>可相对论也压根就没进过超导的门。</p><p>现有的理论物理是帮不上什么忙了。</p><p>对科学家而言，只能像古代炼丹师一样，继续拿各种材料，苦逼地碰运气。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10cad86b5c8118cae5d909b1b3630195","relate_stocks":{"AMSC":"美国超导"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124454060","content_text":"8月2日，美国超导盘中一度跌超24%，最低触及12.2美元，意味着周一超过60%的涨幅回吐大约一半。人类历史上，有过3次重大技术革命。第一次，蒸汽革命，机械替代人力，直接颠覆了几千年的劳动力市场。第二次，电气革命，机械工作的效率，进入高速增长期。第三次，计算机、互联网、生物技术、航天技术、纳米技术等等。很明显，从第三次工业革命开始，技术爆发从主干发散到了各个分支。所以第三次工业革命，既没有明确定义，也没有明确标志。那么，接下来的第四次工业革命，该怎么走？是像前两次，直接出现一种划时代的超重磅技术，撼动整棵科技树？还是像第三次，把什么新能源、3D打印、AI一锅乱炖？如果想要飞跃式的进步，当然是像前两次技术革命那样，直接改变最底层的能源。能源技术不突破，任何先进工业，都是不切实际的幻想。合计一下，目前人类社会台面上的技术，AI、新能源这些，还不够格成为主干。除了大名鼎鼎的可控核聚变，大概也只有普适的超导，才能担此重任。凭什么？因为电。电，妙不可言。想当年，法拉第发现电磁感应现象，折腾出发电机的时候，还许多人嘲笑，说这种只会在导体里流动的东西有什么用？如今任何人都知道，电革了蒸汽的命，成为现代科技最重要的载体。今时今日，我们只有再革了电的命，才能革了现代科技的命，进入未来世界。01最近几天，室温超导——这个对大众比较陌生的概念，频频霸榜热搜。中国网民，什么时候这么爱学习了？先简单回顾下事件的发展轨迹。7月22日，韩国量子能源研究中心科学家Sukbae Lee，在arXiv上发表了两篇论文，宣布发现超导材料LK-99，并公开合成技术。材料的合成方法极其简单，高中实验就能搞定。可能有人不知道这是啥概念。这就好比，一个连话都不会说的猿人，比划着告诉你，他能造核弹。所以我的第一反应，就是离谱他妈给离谱开门——离谱到家了。超导材料是什么？顾名思义，就是电阻率为0的超级导体。做个不太形象的比喻。游乐园里的滑滑梯，如果是用水泥做的粗糙面，小孩坐着根本滑不下去，必须要有人在后面推。只有在表面铺一层光滑的铁皮，或者换成其他阻力小的材料，才能顺畅地滑下去。超导差不多就是这么个意思。从前，它只存在于理论中，需要极低温的条件才能实现，成本远高于经济价值。比如我们曾经看到的磁悬浮列车，基本也就烧钱示范一下，没见到哪个国家真全面推广开了。如果真能做出常温超导材料，第二次工业革命以来，上百年建立起来的工业格局，都将被重塑。拿韩国这次的LK99来说，如果被证实是真的，别看落地需要个五年十年，那都不算个啥。后面五十年都是它的舞台。你想想，输电环节0损耗，那是个什么概念？北非、沙特、中国新疆的广大沙漠，完全可以铺满光伏板，然后原封不动把电力传输到全世界。什么能源危机，都不再是个事。除了能源，在具体应用层面，想象力也很大。比如现有的电动汽车，全部升级成超导汽车，不再有能源损耗，再在车顶再装个光伏板，那直接接近永动机了。充电半小时，跑一年。总之，就是爽，要是真的就好了。超导材料这玩意，因为过于颠覆，再加上最近一些年，造假的案例太多。所以再看到类似的新闻，第一反应就是又来了个科学骗子。但是呢，在没有证伪之前，它会一直是全球关注焦点中的焦点。验证时间至少需要一周，所以这几天全球吃瓜群众的心都提到嗓子眼上。就等着看看这事是瞎扯淡还是真靠谱。7月31日，北航研究员在arXiv上提交论文，称未发现LK-99的超导性。美国劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室研究员也在arXiv提交论文，认为LK-99可能存在超导性。几乎同时，俄罗斯科学家宣布，成功制备出具备常温抗磁性的LK-99晶体，但结果显示比目前常用的热解石墨，只是抗磁性强很多。但是，这也不能证明，LK99具有0电阻的特性。就在真相扑朔迷离之际，美国公司Taj Quantum公布照片，生成新发现一种易碎的石墨烯泡沫材料，也是室温超导材料。尽管该材料还没有经过同行评审，也没有第三方实验室评估，更没有提供性能数据。但是，投资市场才不管你。瓜都吃了这么久了，第四次工业革命啊，不来赌一把？02要说这两天什么板块最火，那肯定是常温超导啊。隔夜，跟超导一毛钱关系，实际只是个电网公司的美国超导，因为有了这两个关键字，股票直接拉升60%，盘前一度涨超150%，比国内股民还懂追题材。这么火热，股民们想不关注都难。先捋一捋啊。如果这玩意儿正成了，这种堪比工业革命的大事件，除了火力等传统能源，各行各业都会受益。在A股，按规律来说，第一个被炒的通常是材料方向，比如这波实验的合成材料，氧化铅、硫酸铅、铜和磷涉及的材料公司，其次是室温超导的产品端公司。基金方面，上游的有色ETF，其次电气工业得重造一遍，那么就是光伏ETF、电力ETF，机床ETF，高端制造ETF、新能源车ETF等等。好像到处都是钱，从哪里先捡呢？可惜，想法很美满，现实很骨感。昨天超导板块大涨7%，今天又继续高开。今天被忽悠进去的散户，本以为能捡钱。没想到啊，韩国团队居然主动辟谣了：论文存在缺陷，系一名成员擅自发布。A股超导板块，应声下跌，从开盘的8个点，到收盘只有3.3个点。今天买进去的，全部套牢！可能这几个家伙，就是美国超导的股东，昨天借拉高出货，赚麻了？我废了这么大劲做实验，全世界几十亿人吃瓜，你居然说发错了？从昨天收盘，到今天开盘。没想到，被寄予厚望的第四次工业革命，才18个小时就结束了……难怪有人说：现在最大的矛盾，就是科学进步太慢，而A股投资者学习速度太快。科学家都还一知半解呢，A股股民已经都要手搓LK-99了。但搓出来了又怎么样？别说A股的这些公司了，就是那家美国超导，跟超导材料也没几毛钱关系。目前，超导板块相关公司已经有20多家。可以肯定的说，这20多家公司没有一个是研发常温超导的，他们研发的顶多就是高温高压超导，与这次炒作的概念完全是牛头不对马嘴。所以，别想着会有真实的业绩支撑。比如，股价处在历史最低点的超频三。这家公司就是做散热器的，跟超导没有任何关系。只不过因为散热器里要用到导电材料，就莫名其妙被编入超导概念股。也就是说，它是冒牌货中的冒牌货。即便最正宗的超导概念股，西部超导，前两年才刚被爆炒过，涨幅一度高达四倍，哪有傻子去给别人抬轿子。总之，可千万不要认为第四次工业革命真的已经到来，然后长线持仓。玩过几年股票的都明白，股市里每隔一段时间都会经历一次划时代的“工业革命”，千万不要激动。不就是革命嘛，有什么稀奇的？这不，今天下午又来了“医药革命”。它的命更短，2.5个小时就结束了。03室温超导这个概念，实在是太美好了。也无怪乎它炒作了一次又一次，热度永不衰减。因为，在现代国际政治博弈中，有两个角色永不缺席：1. 能源；2. 能运运输。谁能把这俩货解决了，世界至少比现在和平90%。谁能？超导材料能。还是上面的原理，随手举几个例子。数码产品基本不会坏，一辆雅迪电动车就能飙到法拉利怀疑人生，发电机一个抵得上过去的十个.....而且，还能产生一些新的应用，比如如超导储能。可以把电流储存在超导线圈里，相比电池电容有独到的优势。另外，电和磁，实际上是一回事，有了电就等于有了磁。一旦磁场技术有新的突破，可控核聚变也提上日程，那人类将进入无限能源时代。（相对人类族群的体量而言）什么外太空旅行、火星殖民，都是水到渠成的事。甚至，房子可以飘在空中，飞机可以装刹车挂倒挡，你也可以坐着魔毯去上上班....全世界都刷新了一圈。有能源，就是任性！总之，超导前途棒棒的。要是真的就好了！只可惜人类现有的理论模型，对高温超导来说都是连皮毛都算不上，更别说常温超导了。那怎么办?遇事不决量子力学?量子力学羞愧地低下了头，这事不归我管，去找找相对论?可相对论也压根就没进过超导的门。现有的理论物理是帮不上什么忙了。对科学家而言，只能像古代炼丹师一样，继续拿各种材料，苦逼地碰运气。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMSC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":520445547556880,"gmtCreate":1768036368049,"gmtModify":1768039013414,"author":{"id":"36010612269100","authorId":"36010612269100","name":"日光城的幸运游侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1588d68611f6c690b11b1b57e60cc7a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36010612269100","idStr":"36010612269100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"微软如果没有OpenAI这个云业务超级大客，其实也并没有什么想象空间了","listText":"微软如果没有OpenAI这个云业务超级大客，其实也并没有什么想象空间了","text":"微软如果没有OpenAI这个云业务超级大客，其实也并没有什么想象空间了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520445547556880","repostId":"2602300583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2602300583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1768006200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602300583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-10 08:50","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”迈克尔・伯里披露持有甲骨文看跌期权，称不会做空Meta、谷歌和微软","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602300583","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"因抨击人工智能热潮而在近几个月备受关注的“大空头”、知名投资人迈克尔·伯里，目前正做空$甲骨文$公司。伯里于周五收盘后在Substack专栏发文称，自己持有甲骨文的看跌期权。通常而言，标的资产价格下跌时，看跌期权的价值便会随之上涨。他没有透露有关看跌期权的细节。伯里此番表态的背景，是甲骨文股价过去一年的剧烈波动。截至年末，甲骨文股价较 9 月的峰值已下跌约 40%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>因抨击人工智能热潮而在近几个月备受关注的“大空头”、知名投资人迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），目前正做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>公司。</p><p>伯里于周五收盘后在Substack专栏发文称，自己持有甲骨文的看跌期权。通常而言，标的资产价格下跌时，看跌期权的价值便会随之上涨。伯里还提到，除期权持仓外，过去六个月他也直接做空了甲骨文的股票。早在去年 11 月，他就曾公开披露过对人工智能芯片制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>公司及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> Technologies Inc． 的看空持仓。</p><p>甲骨文公司素以数据库软件业务闻名，如今正大举进军云计算服务领域。该业务需要投入巨额成本扩建数据中心，为此甲骨文背负了高额债务。</p><p>针对有读者询问其为何选择做空英伟达而非甲骨文，伯里在专栏中写道：“我不看好该公司当前的业务布局与投资方向。它本不必采取这样的战略，我也无法理解其背后的动因，或许只是出于自负吧。”他没有透露有关看跌期权的细节。</p><p>伯里此番表态的背景，是甲骨文股价过去一年的剧烈波动。去年 9 月，该公司发布了一份乐观的云计算业务展望报告，释放出人工智能相关需求激增的信号，其股价也因此在一个交易日内暴涨 36%。然而，随着投资者将关注点转向企业不断攀升的资本开支、部分云计算交易的结构争议，以及因数据中心扩张而日益高企的债务规模，这些涨幅很快便化为泡影。截至年末，甲骨文股价较 9 月的峰值已下跌约 40%。</p><p>目前，甲骨文的未偿债务规模约达 950 亿美元，在彭博高评级指数的非金融企业发行人中，其债务体量位居榜首。</p><p>伯里曾因在 2008 年金融危机期间做空美国房地产市场声名大噪。他表示，自己会避免做空那些业务版图远超人工智能领域的大型科技企业，并以元宇宙平台公司（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司字母表公司以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>公司为例进行说明。</p><p>伯里在专栏中写道：“如果我做空元宇宙平台公司，就等同于同时做空其在社交媒体与广告领域的霸主地位；如果我做空字母表公司，就相当于做空了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>各类搜索服务、安卓操作系统以及韦莫自动驾驶等一系列业务；如果我做空微软公司，就是在做空这家全球办公生产力软件即服务巨头。这些大型企业的股票，绝非单纯押注人工智能领域的做空标的。”</p><p>他指出，上述三家企业或许会逐步收紧开支，消化因产能过剩产生的亏损，甚至可能对资产进行减记，但它们在各自核心业务领域的主导地位仍将稳固。“这三家公司绝不会就此衰落。” 伯里补充道。</p><p>伯里还表示，若人工智能公司 OpenAI 的估值达到 5000 亿美元，他将会选择做空该公司。此番言论也凸显出，他对于人工智能产业的发展节奏及其商业经济价值，秉持着更为广泛的质疑态度。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“大空头”迈克尔・伯里披露持有甲骨文看跌期权，称不会做空Meta、谷歌和微软</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”迈克尔・伯里披露持有甲骨文看跌期权，称不会做空Meta、谷歌和微软\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-10 08:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-10/doc-inhfukyv2241442.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>因抨击人工智能热潮而在近几个月备受关注的“大空头”、知名投资人迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），目前正做空甲骨文公司。伯里于周五收盘后在Substack专栏发文称，自己持有甲骨文的看跌期权。通常而言，标的资产价格下跌时，看跌期权的价值便会随之上涨。伯里还提到，除期权持仓外，过去六个月他也直接做空了甲骨文的股票。早在去年 11 月，他就曾公开披露过对人工智能芯片制造商英伟达公司及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-10/doc-inhfukyv2241442.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"LU0757359954.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC MF","BK4097":"系统软件","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","SG9999015341.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD-H","LU0347712357.USD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF 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Plus","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-01-10/doc-inhfukyv2241442.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2602300583","content_text":"因抨击人工智能热潮而在近几个月备受关注的“大空头”、知名投资人迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry），目前正做空甲骨文公司。伯里于周五收盘后在Substack专栏发文称，自己持有甲骨文的看跌期权。通常而言，标的资产价格下跌时，看跌期权的价值便会随之上涨。伯里还提到，除期权持仓外，过去六个月他也直接做空了甲骨文的股票。早在去年 11 月，他就曾公开披露过对人工智能芯片制造商英伟达公司及Palantir Technologies Inc． 的看空持仓。甲骨文公司素以数据库软件业务闻名，如今正大举进军云计算服务领域。该业务需要投入巨额成本扩建数据中心，为此甲骨文背负了高额债务。针对有读者询问其为何选择做空英伟达而非甲骨文，伯里在专栏中写道：“我不看好该公司当前的业务布局与投资方向。它本不必采取这样的战略，我也无法理解其背后的动因，或许只是出于自负吧。”他没有透露有关看跌期权的细节。伯里此番表态的背景，是甲骨文股价过去一年的剧烈波动。去年 9 月，该公司发布了一份乐观的云计算业务展望报告，释放出人工智能相关需求激增的信号，其股价也因此在一个交易日内暴涨 36%。然而，随着投资者将关注点转向企业不断攀升的资本开支、部分云计算交易的结构争议，以及因数据中心扩张而日益高企的债务规模，这些涨幅很快便化为泡影。截至年末，甲骨文股价较 9 月的峰值已下跌约 40%。目前，甲骨文的未偿债务规模约达 950 亿美元，在彭博高评级指数的非金融企业发行人中，其债务体量位居榜首。伯里曾因在 2008 年金融危机期间做空美国房地产市场声名大噪。他表示，自己会避免做空那些业务版图远超人工智能领域的大型科技企业，并以元宇宙平台公司（Meta）、谷歌母公司字母表公司以及微软公司为例进行说明。伯里在专栏中写道：“如果我做空元宇宙平台公司，就等同于同时做空其在社交媒体与广告领域的霸主地位；如果我做空字母表公司，就相当于做空了谷歌各类搜索服务、安卓操作系统以及韦莫自动驾驶等一系列业务；如果我做空微软公司，就是在做空这家全球办公生产力软件即服务巨头。这些大型企业的股票，绝非单纯押注人工智能领域的做空标的。”他指出，上述三家企业或许会逐步收紧开支，消化因产能过剩产生的亏损，甚至可能对资产进行减记，但它们在各自核心业务领域的主导地位仍将稳固。“这三家公司绝不会就此衰落。” 伯里补充道。伯里还表示，若人工智能公司 OpenAI 的估值达到 5000 亿美元，他将会选择做空该公司。此番言论也凸显出，他对于人工智能产业的发展节奏及其商业经济价值，秉持着更为广泛的质疑态度。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.95}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":204630850797816,"gmtCreate":1690990040476,"gmtModify":1690990358244,"author":{"id":"36010612269100","authorId":"36010612269100","name":"日光城的幸运游侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1588d68611f6c690b11b1b57e60cc7a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36010612269100","idStr":"36010612269100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"从未开始，何来结束？","listText":"从未开始，何来结束？","text":"从未开始，何来结束？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/204630850797816","repostId":"1124454060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124454060","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"早报天天读，汇集天下事，做最好听的有声财经播报。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇APP","id":"11","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d"},"pubTimestamp":1690986144,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124454060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-02 22:22","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"第四次工业革命，18个小时就结束了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124454060","media":"格隆汇APP","summary":"很明显，从第三次工业革命开始，技术爆发从主干发散到了各个分支。所以第三次工业革命，既没有明确定义，也没有明确标志。那么，接下来的第四次工业革命，该怎么走？瓜都吃了这么久了，第四次工业革命啊，不来赌一把？没想到，被寄予厚望的第四次工业革命，才18个小时就结束了……总之，可千万不要认为第四次工业革命真的已经到来，然后长线持仓。它的命更短，2.5个小时就结束了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSC\">美国超导</a>盘中一度跌超24%，最低触及12.2美元，意味着周一超过60%的涨幅回吐大约一半。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8595c92b1feaeaa27fddb004cb47a0af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>人类历史上，有过3次重大技术革命。</p><p><strong><em>第一次，蒸汽革命，机械替代人力，直接颠覆了几千年的劳动力市场。</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>第二次，电气革命，机械工作的效率，进入高速增长期。</em></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>第三次，计算机、互联网、生物技术、航天技术、纳米技术等等。</em></strong></p><p>很明显，从第三次工业革命开始，技术爆发从主干发散到了各个分支。</p><p>所以第三次工业革命，既没有明确定义，也没有明确标志。</p><p>那么，接下来的第四次工业革命，该怎么走？</p><p>是像前两次，直接出现一种划时代的超重磅技术，撼动整棵科技树？</p><p>还是像第三次，把什么新能源、3D打印、AI一锅乱炖？</p><p>如果想要飞跃式的进步，当然是像前两次技术革命那样，直接改变最底层的能源。</p><p>能源技术不突破，任何先进工业，都是不切实际的幻想。</p><p>合计一下，目前人类社会台面上的技术，AI、新能源这些，还不够格成为主干。</p><p>除了大名鼎鼎的可控核聚变，大概也只有普适的超导，才能担此重任。</p><p>凭什么？因为电。</p><p>电，妙不可言。</p><p>想当年，法拉第发现电磁感应现象，折腾出发电机的时候，还许多人嘲笑，说这种只会在导体里流动的东西有什么用？</p><p>如今任何人都知道，电革了蒸汽的命，成为现代科技最重要的载体。</p><p>今时今日，我们只有再革了电的命，才能革了现代科技的命，进入未来世界。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01</strong></p><p>最近几天，室温超导——这个对大众比较陌生的概念，频频霸榜热搜。</p><p>中国网民，什么时候这么爱学习了？</p><p>先简单回顾下事件的发展轨迹。</p><p>7月22日，韩国量子能源研究中心科学家Sukbae Lee，在arXiv上发表了两篇论文，宣布发现超导材料LK-99，并公开合成技术。</p><p>材料的合成方法极其简单，高中实验就能搞定。</p><p>可能有人不知道这是啥概念。</p><p><strong>这就好比，一个连话都不会说的猿人，比划着告诉你，他能造核弹。</strong></p><p>所以我的第一反应，就是离谱他妈给离谱开门——离谱到家了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/661eed085206fbc3ad2f362954627454\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p>超导材料是什么？</p><p>顾名思义，就是电阻率为0的超级导体。</p><p>做个不太形象的比喻。</p><p>游乐园里的滑滑梯，如果是用水泥做的粗糙面，小孩坐着根本滑不下去，必须要有人在后面推。</p><p>只有在表面铺一层光滑的铁皮，或者换成其他阻力小的材料，才能顺畅地滑下去。</p><p>超导差不多就是这么个意思。</p><p>从前，它只存在于理论中，需要极低温的条件才能实现，成本远高于经济价值。</p><p>比如我们曾经看到的磁悬浮列车，基本也就烧钱示范一下，没见到哪个国家真全面推广开了。</p><p>如果真能做出常温超导材料，第二次工业革命以来，上百年建立起来的工业格局，都将被重塑。</p><p>拿韩国这次的LK99来说，如果被证实是真的，别看落地需要个五年十年，那都不算个啥。</p><p>后面五十年都是它的舞台。</p><p>你想想，输电环节0损耗，那是个什么概念？</p><p>北非、沙特、中国新疆的广大沙漠，完全可以铺满光伏板，然后原封不动把电力传输到全世界。</p><p><strong>什么能源危机，都不再是个事。</strong></p><p>除了能源，在具体应用层面，想象力也很大。</p><p>比如现有的电动汽车，全部升级成超导汽车，不再有能源损耗，再在车顶再装个光伏板，那直接接近永动机了。</p><p>充电半小时，跑一年。</p><p>总之，就是爽，要是真的就好了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8e892ac22cdd3ec4509a425d2d79d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"/></p><p><strong>超导材料这玩意，因为过于颠覆，再加上最近一些年，造假的案例太多。</strong></p><p>所以再看到类似的新闻，第一反应就是又来了个科学骗子。</p><p>但是呢，在没有证伪之前，它会一直是全球关注焦点中的焦点。</p><p>验证时间至少需要一周，所以这几天全球吃瓜群众的心都提到嗓子眼上。</p><p>就等着看看这事是瞎扯淡还是真靠谱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ad7fcaaa6a46cc05fb6e98b58990dec\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\"/></p><p>7月31日，北航研究员在arXiv上提交论文，称未发现LK-99的超导性。</p><p>美国劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室研究员也在arXiv提交论文，认为LK-99可能存在超导性。</p><p>几乎同时，俄罗斯科学家宣布，成功制备出具备常温抗磁性的LK-99晶体，但结果显示比目前常用的热解石墨，只是抗磁性强很多。</p><p>但是，这也不能证明，LK99具有0电阻的特性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10cad86b5c8118cae5d909b1b3630195\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"555\"/></p><p>就在真相扑朔迷离之际，美国公司Taj Quantum公布照片，生成新发现一种易碎的石墨烯泡沫材料，也是室温超导材料。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70b1c1635a48264486c5b513212b48f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"804\"/></p><p>尽管该材料还没有经过同行评审，也没有第三方实验室评估，更没有提供性能数据。</p><p>但是，投资市场才不管你。</p><p>瓜都吃了这么久了，第四次工业革命啊，不来赌一把？</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>要说这两天什么板块最火，那肯定是常温超导啊。</p><p>隔夜，跟超导一毛钱关系，实际只是个电网公司的美国超导，因为有了这两个关键字，股票直接拉升60%，盘前一度涨超150%，比国内股民还懂追题材。</p><p>这么火热，股民们想不关注都难。</p><p>先捋一捋啊。</p><p>如果这玩意儿正成了，这种堪比工业革命的大事件，除了火力等传统能源，各行各业都会受益。</p><p>在A股，按规律来说，第一个被炒的通常是材料方向，比如这波实验的合成材料，氧化铅、硫酸铅、铜和磷涉及的材料公司，其次是室温超导的产品端公司。</p><p>基金方面，上游的有色ETF，其次电气工业得重造一遍，那么就是光伏ETF、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/561560\">电力ETF</a>，机床ETF，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/562910\">高端制造ETF</a>、新能源车ETF等等。</p><p>好像到处都是钱，从哪里先捡呢？</p><p>可惜，想法很美满，现实很骨感。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed86be0c97e6b428ea0fbd158175d186\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>昨天超导板块大涨7%，今天又继续高开。</p><p>今天被忽悠进去的散户，本以为能捡钱。</p><p>没想到啊，韩国团队居然主动辟谣了：</p><p><strong>论文存在缺陷，系一名成员擅自发布。</strong></p><p>A股超导板块，应声下跌，从开盘的8个点，到收盘只有3.3个点。</p><p>今天买进去的，全部套牢！</p><p>可能这几个家伙，就是美国超导的股东，昨天借拉高出货，赚麻了？</p><p>我废了这么大劲做实验，全世界几十亿人吃瓜，你居然说发错了？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/998df4c58a8a71f351f2aac5c9bff60d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p>从昨天收盘，到今天开盘。</p><p>没想到，被寄予厚望的第四次工业革命，才18个小时就结束了……</p><p>难怪有人说：<strong>现在最大的矛盾，就是科学进步太慢，而A股投资者学习速度太快。</strong></p><p>科学家都还一知半解呢，A股股民已经都要手搓LK-99了。</p><p>但搓出来了又怎么样？</p><p>别说A股的这些公司了，就是那家美国超导，跟超导材料也没几毛钱关系。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52aa95aeedd0887a6f47726eb2009ae1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p>目前，超导板块相关公司已经有20多家。</p><p>可以肯定的说，这20多家公司没有一个是研发常温超导的，他们研发的顶多就是高温高压超导，与这次炒作的概念完全是牛头不对马嘴。</p><p>所以，别想着会有真实的业绩支撑。</p><p>比如，股价处在历史最低点的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300647\">超频三</a>。</p><p>这家公司就是做散热器的，跟超导没有任何关系。</p><p><strong>只不过因为散热器里要用到导电材料，就莫名其妙被编入超导概念股。</strong></p><p>也就是说，它是冒牌货中的冒牌货。</p><p>即便最正宗的超导概念股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688122\">西部超导</a>，前两年才刚被爆炒过，涨幅一度高达四倍，哪有傻子去给别人抬轿子。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b540f681d9164daf942a13f739f374\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"873\"/></p><p>总之，可千万不要认为第四次工业革命真的已经到来，然后长线持仓。</p><p>玩过几年股票的都明白，股市里每隔一段时间都会经历一次划时代的“工业革命”，千万不要激动。</p><p>不就是革命嘛，有什么稀奇的？</p><p>这不，今天下午又来了“<strong>医药革命</strong>”。</p><p>它的命更短，2.5个小时就结束了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a19928d3c36fe99fcbea6fb7fc9f10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"1280\"/></p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>室温超导这个概念，实在是太美好了。</p><p>也无怪乎它炒作了一次又一次，热度永不衰减。</p><p>因为，在现代国际政治博弈中，有两个角色永不缺席：</p><p><strong>1. 能源；2. 能运运输。</strong></p><p>谁能把这俩货解决了，世界至少比现在和平90%。</p><p>谁能？超导材料能。</p><p>还是上面的原理，随手举几个例子。</p><p>数码产品基本不会坏，一辆雅迪电动车就能飙到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>怀疑人生，发电机一个抵得上过去的十个.....</p><p>而且，还能产生一些新的应用，比如如超导储能。</p><p>可以把电流储存在超导线圈里，相比电池电容有独到的优势。</p><p>另外，电和磁，实际上是一回事，有了电就等于有了磁。</p><p>一旦磁场技术有新的突破，可控核聚变也提上日程，那人类将进入无限能源时代。（相对人类族群的体量而言）</p><p>什么外太空旅行、火星殖民，都是水到渠成的事。</p><p>甚至，房子可以飘在空中，飞机可以装刹车挂倒挡，你也可以坐着魔毯去上上班....全世界都刷新了一圈。</p><p>有能源，就是任性！</p><p>总之，超导前途棒棒的。</p><p>要是真的就好了！</p><p>只可惜人类现有的理论模型，对高温超导来说都是连皮毛都算不上，更别说常温超导了。</p><p>那怎么办?遇事不决量子力学?</p><p>量子力学羞愧地低下了头，这事不归我管，去找找相对论?</p><p>可相对论也压根就没进过超导的门。</p><p>现有的理论物理是帮不上什么忙了。</p><p>对科学家而言，只能像古代炼丹师一样，继续拿各种材料，苦逼地碰运气。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>第四次工业革命，18个小时就结束了？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n第四次工业革命，18个小时就结束了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/11\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d06797dbcc3b4b9e839c351ca5a14e4d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-08-02 22:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSC\">美国超导</a>盘中一度跌超24%，最低触及12.2美元，意味着周一超过60%的涨幅回吐大约一半。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8595c92b1feaeaa27fddb004cb47a0af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>人类历史上，有过3次重大技术革命。</p><p><strong><em>第一次，蒸汽革命，机械替代人力，直接颠覆了几千年的劳动力市场。</em></strong></p><p><strong><em>第二次，电气革命，机械工作的效率，进入高速增长期。</em></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>第三次，计算机、互联网、生物技术、航天技术、纳米技术等等。</em></strong></p><p>很明显，从第三次工业革命开始，技术爆发从主干发散到了各个分支。</p><p>所以第三次工业革命，既没有明确定义，也没有明确标志。</p><p>那么，接下来的第四次工业革命，该怎么走？</p><p>是像前两次，直接出现一种划时代的超重磅技术，撼动整棵科技树？</p><p>还是像第三次，把什么新能源、3D打印、AI一锅乱炖？</p><p>如果想要飞跃式的进步，当然是像前两次技术革命那样，直接改变最底层的能源。</p><p>能源技术不突破，任何先进工业，都是不切实际的幻想。</p><p>合计一下，目前人类社会台面上的技术，AI、新能源这些，还不够格成为主干。</p><p>除了大名鼎鼎的可控核聚变，大概也只有普适的超导，才能担此重任。</p><p>凭什么？因为电。</p><p>电，妙不可言。</p><p>想当年，法拉第发现电磁感应现象，折腾出发电机的时候，还许多人嘲笑，说这种只会在导体里流动的东西有什么用？</p><p>如今任何人都知道，电革了蒸汽的命，成为现代科技最重要的载体。</p><p>今时今日，我们只有再革了电的命，才能革了现代科技的命，进入未来世界。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>01</strong></p><p>最近几天，室温超导——这个对大众比较陌生的概念，频频霸榜热搜。</p><p>中国网民，什么时候这么爱学习了？</p><p>先简单回顾下事件的发展轨迹。</p><p>7月22日，韩国量子能源研究中心科学家Sukbae Lee，在arXiv上发表了两篇论文，宣布发现超导材料LK-99，并公开合成技术。</p><p>材料的合成方法极其简单，高中实验就能搞定。</p><p>可能有人不知道这是啥概念。</p><p><strong>这就好比，一个连话都不会说的猿人，比划着告诉你，他能造核弹。</strong></p><p>所以我的第一反应，就是离谱他妈给离谱开门——离谱到家了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/661eed085206fbc3ad2f362954627454\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"/></p><p>超导材料是什么？</p><p>顾名思义，就是电阻率为0的超级导体。</p><p>做个不太形象的比喻。</p><p>游乐园里的滑滑梯，如果是用水泥做的粗糙面，小孩坐着根本滑不下去，必须要有人在后面推。</p><p>只有在表面铺一层光滑的铁皮，或者换成其他阻力小的材料，才能顺畅地滑下去。</p><p>超导差不多就是这么个意思。</p><p>从前，它只存在于理论中，需要极低温的条件才能实现，成本远高于经济价值。</p><p>比如我们曾经看到的磁悬浮列车，基本也就烧钱示范一下，没见到哪个国家真全面推广开了。</p><p>如果真能做出常温超导材料，第二次工业革命以来，上百年建立起来的工业格局，都将被重塑。</p><p>拿韩国这次的LK99来说，如果被证实是真的，别看落地需要个五年十年，那都不算个啥。</p><p>后面五十年都是它的舞台。</p><p>你想想，输电环节0损耗，那是个什么概念？</p><p>北非、沙特、中国新疆的广大沙漠，完全可以铺满光伏板，然后原封不动把电力传输到全世界。</p><p><strong>什么能源危机，都不再是个事。</strong></p><p>除了能源，在具体应用层面，想象力也很大。</p><p>比如现有的电动汽车，全部升级成超导汽车，不再有能源损耗，再在车顶再装个光伏板，那直接接近永动机了。</p><p>充电半小时，跑一年。</p><p>总之，就是爽，要是真的就好了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8e892ac22cdd3ec4509a425d2d79d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"/></p><p><strong>超导材料这玩意，因为过于颠覆，再加上最近一些年，造假的案例太多。</strong></p><p>所以再看到类似的新闻，第一反应就是又来了个科学骗子。</p><p>但是呢，在没有证伪之前，它会一直是全球关注焦点中的焦点。</p><p>验证时间至少需要一周，所以这几天全球吃瓜群众的心都提到嗓子眼上。</p><p>就等着看看这事是瞎扯淡还是真靠谱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ad7fcaaa6a46cc05fb6e98b58990dec\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\"/></p><p>7月31日，北航研究员在arXiv上提交论文，称未发现LK-99的超导性。</p><p>美国劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室研究员也在arXiv提交论文，认为LK-99可能存在超导性。</p><p>几乎同时，俄罗斯科学家宣布，成功制备出具备常温抗磁性的LK-99晶体，但结果显示比目前常用的热解石墨，只是抗磁性强很多。</p><p>但是，这也不能证明，LK99具有0电阻的特性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10cad86b5c8118cae5d909b1b3630195\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"555\"/></p><p>就在真相扑朔迷离之际，美国公司Taj Quantum公布照片，生成新发现一种易碎的石墨烯泡沫材料，也是室温超导材料。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70b1c1635a48264486c5b513212b48f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"804\"/></p><p>尽管该材料还没有经过同行评审，也没有第三方实验室评估，更没有提供性能数据。</p><p>但是，投资市场才不管你。</p><p>瓜都吃了这么久了，第四次工业革命啊，不来赌一把？</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>要说这两天什么板块最火，那肯定是常温超导啊。</p><p>隔夜，跟超导一毛钱关系，实际只是个电网公司的美国超导，因为有了这两个关键字，股票直接拉升60%，盘前一度涨超150%，比国内股民还懂追题材。</p><p>这么火热，股民们想不关注都难。</p><p>先捋一捋啊。</p><p>如果这玩意儿正成了，这种堪比工业革命的大事件，除了火力等传统能源，各行各业都会受益。</p><p>在A股，按规律来说，第一个被炒的通常是材料方向，比如这波实验的合成材料，氧化铅、硫酸铅、铜和磷涉及的材料公司，其次是室温超导的产品端公司。</p><p>基金方面，上游的有色ETF，其次电气工业得重造一遍，那么就是光伏ETF、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/561560\">电力ETF</a>，机床ETF，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/562910\">高端制造ETF</a>、新能源车ETF等等。</p><p>好像到处都是钱，从哪里先捡呢？</p><p>可惜，想法很美满，现实很骨感。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed86be0c97e6b428ea0fbd158175d186\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>昨天超导板块大涨7%，今天又继续高开。</p><p>今天被忽悠进去的散户，本以为能捡钱。</p><p>没想到啊，韩国团队居然主动辟谣了：</p><p><strong>论文存在缺陷，系一名成员擅自发布。</strong></p><p>A股超导板块，应声下跌，从开盘的8个点，到收盘只有3.3个点。</p><p>今天买进去的，全部套牢！</p><p>可能这几个家伙，就是美国超导的股东，昨天借拉高出货，赚麻了？</p><p>我废了这么大劲做实验，全世界几十亿人吃瓜，你居然说发错了？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/998df4c58a8a71f351f2aac5c9bff60d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p>从昨天收盘，到今天开盘。</p><p>没想到，被寄予厚望的第四次工业革命，才18个小时就结束了……</p><p>难怪有人说：<strong>现在最大的矛盾，就是科学进步太慢，而A股投资者学习速度太快。</strong></p><p>科学家都还一知半解呢，A股股民已经都要手搓LK-99了。</p><p>但搓出来了又怎么样？</p><p>别说A股的这些公司了，就是那家美国超导，跟超导材料也没几毛钱关系。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52aa95aeedd0887a6f47726eb2009ae1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"300\"/></p><p>目前，超导板块相关公司已经有20多家。</p><p>可以肯定的说，这20多家公司没有一个是研发常温超导的，他们研发的顶多就是高温高压超导，与这次炒作的概念完全是牛头不对马嘴。</p><p>所以，别想着会有真实的业绩支撑。</p><p>比如，股价处在历史最低点的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300647\">超频三</a>。</p><p>这家公司就是做散热器的，跟超导没有任何关系。</p><p><strong>只不过因为散热器里要用到导电材料，就莫名其妙被编入超导概念股。</strong></p><p>也就是说，它是冒牌货中的冒牌货。</p><p>即便最正宗的超导概念股，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688122\">西部超导</a>，前两年才刚被爆炒过，涨幅一度高达四倍，哪有傻子去给别人抬轿子。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b540f681d9164daf942a13f739f374\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"873\"/></p><p>总之，可千万不要认为第四次工业革命真的已经到来，然后长线持仓。</p><p>玩过几年股票的都明白，股市里每隔一段时间都会经历一次划时代的“工业革命”，千万不要激动。</p><p>不就是革命嘛，有什么稀奇的？</p><p>这不，今天下午又来了“<strong>医药革命</strong>”。</p><p>它的命更短，2.5个小时就结束了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a19928d3c36fe99fcbea6fb7fc9f10\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"1280\"/></p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>室温超导这个概念，实在是太美好了。</p><p>也无怪乎它炒作了一次又一次，热度永不衰减。</p><p>因为，在现代国际政治博弈中，有两个角色永不缺席：</p><p><strong>1. 能源；2. 能运运输。</strong></p><p>谁能把这俩货解决了，世界至少比现在和平90%。</p><p>谁能？超导材料能。</p><p>还是上面的原理，随手举几个例子。</p><p>数码产品基本不会坏，一辆雅迪电动车就能飙到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">法拉利</a>怀疑人生，发电机一个抵得上过去的十个.....</p><p>而且，还能产生一些新的应用，比如如超导储能。</p><p>可以把电流储存在超导线圈里，相比电池电容有独到的优势。</p><p>另外，电和磁，实际上是一回事，有了电就等于有了磁。</p><p>一旦磁场技术有新的突破，可控核聚变也提上日程，那人类将进入无限能源时代。（相对人类族群的体量而言）</p><p>什么外太空旅行、火星殖民，都是水到渠成的事。</p><p>甚至，房子可以飘在空中，飞机可以装刹车挂倒挡，你也可以坐着魔毯去上上班....全世界都刷新了一圈。</p><p>有能源，就是任性！</p><p>总之，超导前途棒棒的。</p><p>要是真的就好了！</p><p>只可惜人类现有的理论模型，对高温超导来说都是连皮毛都算不上，更别说常温超导了。</p><p>那怎么办?遇事不决量子力学?</p><p>量子力学羞愧地低下了头，这事不归我管，去找找相对论?</p><p>可相对论也压根就没进过超导的门。</p><p>现有的理论物理是帮不上什么忙了。</p><p>对科学家而言，只能像古代炼丹师一样，继续拿各种材料，苦逼地碰运气。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10cad86b5c8118cae5d909b1b3630195","relate_stocks":{"AMSC":"美国超导"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124454060","content_text":"8月2日，美国超导盘中一度跌超24%，最低触及12.2美元，意味着周一超过60%的涨幅回吐大约一半。人类历史上，有过3次重大技术革命。第一次，蒸汽革命，机械替代人力，直接颠覆了几千年的劳动力市场。第二次，电气革命，机械工作的效率，进入高速增长期。第三次，计算机、互联网、生物技术、航天技术、纳米技术等等。很明显，从第三次工业革命开始，技术爆发从主干发散到了各个分支。所以第三次工业革命，既没有明确定义，也没有明确标志。那么，接下来的第四次工业革命，该怎么走？是像前两次，直接出现一种划时代的超重磅技术，撼动整棵科技树？还是像第三次，把什么新能源、3D打印、AI一锅乱炖？如果想要飞跃式的进步，当然是像前两次技术革命那样，直接改变最底层的能源。能源技术不突破，任何先进工业，都是不切实际的幻想。合计一下，目前人类社会台面上的技术，AI、新能源这些，还不够格成为主干。除了大名鼎鼎的可控核聚变，大概也只有普适的超导，才能担此重任。凭什么？因为电。电，妙不可言。想当年，法拉第发现电磁感应现象，折腾出发电机的时候，还许多人嘲笑，说这种只会在导体里流动的东西有什么用？如今任何人都知道，电革了蒸汽的命，成为现代科技最重要的载体。今时今日，我们只有再革了电的命，才能革了现代科技的命，进入未来世界。01最近几天，室温超导——这个对大众比较陌生的概念，频频霸榜热搜。中国网民，什么时候这么爱学习了？先简单回顾下事件的发展轨迹。7月22日，韩国量子能源研究中心科学家Sukbae Lee，在arXiv上发表了两篇论文，宣布发现超导材料LK-99，并公开合成技术。材料的合成方法极其简单，高中实验就能搞定。可能有人不知道这是啥概念。这就好比，一个连话都不会说的猿人，比划着告诉你，他能造核弹。所以我的第一反应，就是离谱他妈给离谱开门——离谱到家了。超导材料是什么？顾名思义，就是电阻率为0的超级导体。做个不太形象的比喻。游乐园里的滑滑梯，如果是用水泥做的粗糙面，小孩坐着根本滑不下去，必须要有人在后面推。只有在表面铺一层光滑的铁皮，或者换成其他阻力小的材料，才能顺畅地滑下去。超导差不多就是这么个意思。从前，它只存在于理论中，需要极低温的条件才能实现，成本远高于经济价值。比如我们曾经看到的磁悬浮列车，基本也就烧钱示范一下，没见到哪个国家真全面推广开了。如果真能做出常温超导材料，第二次工业革命以来，上百年建立起来的工业格局，都将被重塑。拿韩国这次的LK99来说，如果被证实是真的，别看落地需要个五年十年，那都不算个啥。后面五十年都是它的舞台。你想想，输电环节0损耗，那是个什么概念？北非、沙特、中国新疆的广大沙漠，完全可以铺满光伏板，然后原封不动把电力传输到全世界。什么能源危机，都不再是个事。除了能源，在具体应用层面，想象力也很大。比如现有的电动汽车，全部升级成超导汽车，不再有能源损耗，再在车顶再装个光伏板，那直接接近永动机了。充电半小时，跑一年。总之，就是爽，要是真的就好了。超导材料这玩意，因为过于颠覆，再加上最近一些年，造假的案例太多。所以再看到类似的新闻，第一反应就是又来了个科学骗子。但是呢，在没有证伪之前，它会一直是全球关注焦点中的焦点。验证时间至少需要一周，所以这几天全球吃瓜群众的心都提到嗓子眼上。就等着看看这事是瞎扯淡还是真靠谱。7月31日，北航研究员在arXiv上提交论文，称未发现LK-99的超导性。美国劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室研究员也在arXiv提交论文，认为LK-99可能存在超导性。几乎同时，俄罗斯科学家宣布，成功制备出具备常温抗磁性的LK-99晶体，但结果显示比目前常用的热解石墨，只是抗磁性强很多。但是，这也不能证明，LK99具有0电阻的特性。就在真相扑朔迷离之际，美国公司Taj Quantum公布照片，生成新发现一种易碎的石墨烯泡沫材料，也是室温超导材料。尽管该材料还没有经过同行评审，也没有第三方实验室评估，更没有提供性能数据。但是，投资市场才不管你。瓜都吃了这么久了，第四次工业革命啊，不来赌一把？02要说这两天什么板块最火，那肯定是常温超导啊。隔夜，跟超导一毛钱关系，实际只是个电网公司的美国超导，因为有了这两个关键字，股票直接拉升60%，盘前一度涨超150%，比国内股民还懂追题材。这么火热，股民们想不关注都难。先捋一捋啊。如果这玩意儿正成了，这种堪比工业革命的大事件，除了火力等传统能源，各行各业都会受益。在A股，按规律来说，第一个被炒的通常是材料方向，比如这波实验的合成材料，氧化铅、硫酸铅、铜和磷涉及的材料公司，其次是室温超导的产品端公司。基金方面，上游的有色ETF，其次电气工业得重造一遍，那么就是光伏ETF、电力ETF，机床ETF，高端制造ETF、新能源车ETF等等。好像到处都是钱，从哪里先捡呢？可惜，想法很美满，现实很骨感。昨天超导板块大涨7%，今天又继续高开。今天被忽悠进去的散户，本以为能捡钱。没想到啊，韩国团队居然主动辟谣了：论文存在缺陷，系一名成员擅自发布。A股超导板块，应声下跌，从开盘的8个点，到收盘只有3.3个点。今天买进去的，全部套牢！可能这几个家伙，就是美国超导的股东，昨天借拉高出货，赚麻了？我废了这么大劲做实验，全世界几十亿人吃瓜，你居然说发错了？从昨天收盘，到今天开盘。没想到，被寄予厚望的第四次工业革命，才18个小时就结束了……难怪有人说：现在最大的矛盾，就是科学进步太慢，而A股投资者学习速度太快。科学家都还一知半解呢，A股股民已经都要手搓LK-99了。但搓出来了又怎么样？别说A股的这些公司了，就是那家美国超导，跟超导材料也没几毛钱关系。目前，超导板块相关公司已经有20多家。可以肯定的说，这20多家公司没有一个是研发常温超导的，他们研发的顶多就是高温高压超导，与这次炒作的概念完全是牛头不对马嘴。所以，别想着会有真实的业绩支撑。比如，股价处在历史最低点的超频三。这家公司就是做散热器的，跟超导没有任何关系。只不过因为散热器里要用到导电材料，就莫名其妙被编入超导概念股。也就是说，它是冒牌货中的冒牌货。即便最正宗的超导概念股，西部超导，前两年才刚被爆炒过，涨幅一度高达四倍，哪有傻子去给别人抬轿子。总之，可千万不要认为第四次工业革命真的已经到来，然后长线持仓。玩过几年股票的都明白，股市里每隔一段时间都会经历一次划时代的“工业革命”，千万不要激动。不就是革命嘛，有什么稀奇的？这不，今天下午又来了“医药革命”。它的命更短，2.5个小时就结束了。03室温超导这个概念，实在是太美好了。也无怪乎它炒作了一次又一次，热度永不衰减。因为，在现代国际政治博弈中，有两个角色永不缺席：1. 能源；2. 能运运输。谁能把这俩货解决了，世界至少比现在和平90%。谁能？超导材料能。还是上面的原理，随手举几个例子。数码产品基本不会坏，一辆雅迪电动车就能飙到法拉利怀疑人生，发电机一个抵得上过去的十个.....而且，还能产生一些新的应用，比如如超导储能。可以把电流储存在超导线圈里，相比电池电容有独到的优势。另外，电和磁，实际上是一回事，有了电就等于有了磁。一旦磁场技术有新的突破，可控核聚变也提上日程，那人类将进入无限能源时代。（相对人类族群的体量而言）什么外太空旅行、火星殖民，都是水到渠成的事。甚至，房子可以飘在空中，飞机可以装刹车挂倒挡，你也可以坐着魔毯去上上班....全世界都刷新了一圈。有能源，就是任性！总之，超导前途棒棒的。要是真的就好了！只可惜人类现有的理论模型，对高温超导来说都是连皮毛都算不上，更别说常温超导了。那怎么办?遇事不决量子力学?量子力学羞愧地低下了头，这事不归我管，去找找相对论?可相对论也压根就没进过超导的门。现有的理论物理是帮不上什么忙了。对科学家而言，只能像古代炼丹师一样，继续拿各种材料，苦逼地碰运气。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMSC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}