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claire0215

claire0215

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2021-11-19

$Apple(AAPL)$yeah

2021-07-27

Keep ask me.leave comment. After left, nvr give me coin?

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2021-07-27

Comment at where?

Hershey Earnings: What to Watch<blockquote>好时盈利：值得关注</blockquote>

2021-07-27

What is this?

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2021-07-27

What will happen?

Goldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote>

2021-07-27

What.does.it.mean

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2021-07-27

gogogo$MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$

2021-07-27

Share my.position

2021-07-27

Gogogo

2021-07-16

$Apple(AAPL)$ go go go

2021-07-16

Go go go

2021-07-16

Like please

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

Why

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2021-07-15

Crash that last for how long? 1 day?

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2021-07-13

Gogogo

2021-07-11

Roblox

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2021-07-11

Help like please

XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>

2021-07-11

Nice future

2021-07-11

Help like please🙏🙏🙏

The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>

2021-07-11

Yessss

Could The iPad Be Apple’s Best Performer in Fiscal Q3?<blockquote>iPad会成为苹果第三财季表现最好的产品吗？</blockquote>

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After left, nvr give me coin?","listText":"Keep ask me.leave comment. After left, nvr give me coin?","text":"Keep ask me.leave comment. After left, nvr give me coin?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809662961","repostId":"2154309969","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809860340,"gmtCreate":1627358314580,"gmtModify":1633765744238,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937406888157","idStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment at where?","listText":"Comment at where?","text":"Comment at where?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809860340","repostId":"1124522176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124522176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627355553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124522176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 11:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hershey Earnings: What to Watch<blockquote>好时盈利：值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124522176","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Hershey(NYSE:HSY)shareholders are in for a treat. The confectioner is set to announce earnings resul","content":"<p><b>Hershey</b>(NYSE:HSY)shareholders are in for a treat. The confectioner is set to announce earnings results for the second quarter on Thursday, July 29. And if its recent momentum is any guide, that report might include strong sales and earnings growth, along with another upgrade to management's 2021 forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>赫尔希</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HSY）股东们将享受到一份享受。该糖果制造商将于7月29日星期四公布第二季度盈利结果。如果其最近的势头有任何指导意义的话，该报告可能包括强劲的销售和盈利增长，以及管理层对2021年预测的再次升级。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> More mobility</p><p><blockquote>更多机动性</blockquote></p><p> There's every reason to expect big sales numbers in Thursday's announcement. Hershey said back in April that its portfolio was resonating with consumers, especially as they increased mobility following the lifting of COVID-19 social distancing efforts. Its baking products continued to sell well through early April, but on-the-go purchases like candies, mints, and gums started booming. Overall organic sales were up 13% last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>有充分的理由期待周四的公告中的大销售数字。好时早在4月份就表示，其产品组合引起了消费者的共鸣，特别是在COVID-19社交距离措施解除后，他们增加了流动性。其烘焙产品在四月初继续畅销，但糖果、薄荷糖和口香糖等移动购买开始蓬勃发展。上季度整体有机销售额增长了13%。</blockquote></p><p> Look for slower, but still impressive, gains on Thursday. Most investors who follow the stock are expecting sales to rise about 5% to $1.8 billion. That performance would keep Hershey near the top of the snack food niche.<b>PepsiCo</b>, for context, just announced a6% boostin its U.S. snack segment through mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>期待周四的涨幅放缓，但仍令人印象深刻。大多数关注该股的投资者预计销售额将增长约5%，达到18亿美元。这一表现将使好时在休闲食品领域保持领先地位。<b>百事可乐</b>就背景而言，该公司刚刚宣布截至6月中旬其美国零食业务增长6%。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that headline sales figure, watch for Hershey's comments on market share and on the balance between rising sales volumes and prices. Ideally, volume will lead the way higher even as prices increase.</p><p><blockquote>除了总体销售数据之外，请关注好时对市场份额以及销量增长与价格之间平衡的评论。理想情况下，即使价格上涨，成交量也会领先。</blockquote></p><p> Profit check-in</p><p><blockquote>利润签到</blockquote></p><p> Most globalconsumer staplespeers, including PepsiCo, are posting higher margins right now, but Hershey hasn't yet cashed in on that trend. Gross profit dipped slightly in the second quarter, in fact, which held bottom-line profitability in check.</p><p><blockquote>包括百事可乐在内的大多数全球消费必需品公司目前都公布了更高的利润率，但好时尚未从这一趋势中获利。事实上，第二季度毛利润略有下降，这抑制了底线盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> That situation likely improved in recent months thanks to rising prices and a demand tilt toward higher-margin, on-the-go candies and snacks. Most packaged food peers, from<b>Coca-Cola</b>, to<b>McCormick</b>, are seeing a lift from these shifts. Hershey won't be left out of the party.</p><p><blockquote>由于价格上涨以及需求向利润更高、移动糖果和零食倾斜，这种情况近几个月可能有所改善。大多数包装食品同行，来自<b>可口可乐</b>，到<b>麦考密克</b>，正在从这些转变中看到提升。好时不会被排除在派对之外。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8a32471591d4b0092cce99e3766887\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>HSY OPERATING MARGIN (TTM)DATA BYYCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HSY营业利润率(TTM)数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Most investors are looking for earnings to jump to $1.44 per share from $1.31 per share a year ago. But the bigger question is whether Hershey can return to setting record operating margins by late 2021.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者预计每股收益将从一年前的每股1.31美元跃升至1.44美元。但更大的问题是好时能否在2021年底前恢复创纪录的营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> The new outlook</p><p><blockquote>新展望</blockquote></p><p> Heading into this report, CEO Michele Buck and her team's outlook is calling for sales to rise by between 4% and 6% this year, up from their prior forecast of a 2% to 4% uptick. A strong Q2 outing for the business might spur another modest increase to that prediction on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>在这份报告中，首席执行官米歇尔·巴克(Michele Buck)和她的团队的展望是，今年的销售额将增长4%至6%，高于他们之前预测的2%至4%。该业务第二季度的强劲表现可能会刺激周四这一预测再次小幅上调。</blockquote></p><p> The earnings outlook was also lifted in April and might get another boost this week, especially if consumers don't balk at Hershey's latest round of price increases.</p><p><blockquote>四月份的盈利前景也被上调，本周可能会再次提振，特别是如果消费者不回避好时最新一轮的价格上涨的话。</blockquote></p><p> Looking further out, the company can reasonably target accelerating sales and earnings growth this year following modest increases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hershey isn't the cheapest or fastest-growing stock in its niche with those kinds of prospects. McCormick and PepsiCo have lower valuations even though they're expanding sales and earnings at a faster clip.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，在COVID-19大流行期间略有增长后，该公司可以合理地设定今年加速销售和盈利增长的目标。好时并不是具有此类前景的利基市场中最便宜或增长最快的股票。尽管味好美和百事可乐正在以更快的速度扩大销售额和盈利，但它们的估值较低。</blockquote></p><p> But investors still might want to follow Hershey's report this week for signs that the business is on a sustainably stronger path. That's the surest way the company can earn the stock price rally that's seen it outperform most of its rivals over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者可能仍希望关注好时本周的报告，以寻找该业务正在走上可持续强劲道路的迹象。这是该公司赢得股价上涨的最可靠方式，过去一年该公司的表现优于大多数竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hershey Earnings: What to Watch<blockquote>好时盈利：值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHershey Earnings: What to Watch<blockquote>好时盈利：值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 11:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Hershey</b>(NYSE:HSY)shareholders are in for a treat. The confectioner is set to announce earnings results for the second quarter on Thursday, July 29. And if its recent momentum is any guide, that report might include strong sales and earnings growth, along with another upgrade to management's 2021 forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>赫尔希</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HSY）股东们将享受到一份享受。该糖果制造商将于7月29日星期四公布第二季度盈利结果。如果其最近的势头有任何指导意义的话，该报告可能包括强劲的销售和盈利增长，以及管理层对2021年预测的再次升级。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> More mobility</p><p><blockquote>更多机动性</blockquote></p><p> There's every reason to expect big sales numbers in Thursday's announcement. Hershey said back in April that its portfolio was resonating with consumers, especially as they increased mobility following the lifting of COVID-19 social distancing efforts. Its baking products continued to sell well through early April, but on-the-go purchases like candies, mints, and gums started booming. Overall organic sales were up 13% last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>有充分的理由期待周四的公告中的大销售数字。好时早在4月份就表示，其产品组合引起了消费者的共鸣，特别是在COVID-19社交距离措施解除后，他们增加了流动性。其烘焙产品在四月初继续畅销，但糖果、薄荷糖和口香糖等移动购买开始蓬勃发展。上季度整体有机销售额增长了13%。</blockquote></p><p> Look for slower, but still impressive, gains on Thursday. Most investors who follow the stock are expecting sales to rise about 5% to $1.8 billion. That performance would keep Hershey near the top of the snack food niche.<b>PepsiCo</b>, for context, just announced a6% boostin its U.S. snack segment through mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>期待周四的涨幅放缓，但仍令人印象深刻。大多数关注该股的投资者预计销售额将增长约5%，达到18亿美元。这一表现将使好时在休闲食品领域保持领先地位。<b>百事可乐</b>就背景而言，该公司刚刚宣布截至6月中旬其美国零食业务增长6%。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that headline sales figure, watch for Hershey's comments on market share and on the balance between rising sales volumes and prices. Ideally, volume will lead the way higher even as prices increase.</p><p><blockquote>除了总体销售数据之外，请关注好时对市场份额以及销量增长与价格之间平衡的评论。理想情况下，即使价格上涨，成交量也会领先。</blockquote></p><p> Profit check-in</p><p><blockquote>利润签到</blockquote></p><p> Most globalconsumer staplespeers, including PepsiCo, are posting higher margins right now, but Hershey hasn't yet cashed in on that trend. Gross profit dipped slightly in the second quarter, in fact, which held bottom-line profitability in check.</p><p><blockquote>包括百事可乐在内的大多数全球消费必需品公司目前都公布了更高的利润率，但好时尚未从这一趋势中获利。事实上，第二季度毛利润略有下降，这抑制了底线盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> That situation likely improved in recent months thanks to rising prices and a demand tilt toward higher-margin, on-the-go candies and snacks. Most packaged food peers, from<b>Coca-Cola</b>, to<b>McCormick</b>, are seeing a lift from these shifts. Hershey won't be left out of the party.</p><p><blockquote>由于价格上涨以及需求向利润更高、移动糖果和零食倾斜，这种情况近几个月可能有所改善。大多数包装食品同行，来自<b>可口可乐</b>，到<b>麦考密克</b>，正在从这些转变中看到提升。好时不会被排除在派对之外。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8a32471591d4b0092cce99e3766887\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>HSY OPERATING MARGIN (TTM)DATA BYYCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HSY营业利润率(TTM)数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Most investors are looking for earnings to jump to $1.44 per share from $1.31 per share a year ago. But the bigger question is whether Hershey can return to setting record operating margins by late 2021.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者预计每股收益将从一年前的每股1.31美元跃升至1.44美元。但更大的问题是好时能否在2021年底前恢复创纪录的营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> The new outlook</p><p><blockquote>新展望</blockquote></p><p> Heading into this report, CEO Michele Buck and her team's outlook is calling for sales to rise by between 4% and 6% this year, up from their prior forecast of a 2% to 4% uptick. A strong Q2 outing for the business might spur another modest increase to that prediction on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>在这份报告中，首席执行官米歇尔·巴克(Michele Buck)和她的团队的展望是，今年的销售额将增长4%至6%，高于他们之前预测的2%至4%。该业务第二季度的强劲表现可能会刺激周四这一预测再次小幅上调。</blockquote></p><p> The earnings outlook was also lifted in April and might get another boost this week, especially if consumers don't balk at Hershey's latest round of price increases.</p><p><blockquote>四月份的盈利前景也被上调，本周可能会再次提振，特别是如果消费者不回避好时最新一轮的价格上涨的话。</blockquote></p><p> Looking further out, the company can reasonably target accelerating sales and earnings growth this year following modest increases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hershey isn't the cheapest or fastest-growing stock in its niche with those kinds of prospects. McCormick and PepsiCo have lower valuations even though they're expanding sales and earnings at a faster clip.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，在COVID-19大流行期间略有增长后，该公司可以合理地设定今年加速销售和盈利增长的目标。好时并不是具有此类前景的利基市场中最便宜或增长最快的股票。尽管味好美和百事可乐正在以更快的速度扩大销售额和盈利，但它们的估值较低。</blockquote></p><p> But investors still might want to follow Hershey's report this week for signs that the business is on a sustainably stronger path. That's the surest way the company can earn the stock price rally that's seen it outperform most of its rivals over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者可能仍希望关注好时本周的报告，以寻找该业务正在走上可持续强劲道路的迹象。这是该公司赢得股价上涨的最可靠方式，过去一年该公司的表现优于大多数竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/hershey-earnings-what-to-watch/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSY":"好时"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/hershey-earnings-what-to-watch/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124522176","content_text":"Hershey(NYSE:HSY)shareholders are in for a treat. The confectioner is set to announce earnings results for the second quarter on Thursday, July 29. And if its recent momentum is any guide, that report might include strong sales and earnings growth, along with another upgrade to management's 2021 forecast.\nLet's take a closer look.\nMore mobility\nThere's every reason to expect big sales numbers in Thursday's announcement. Hershey said back in April that its portfolio was resonating with consumers, especially as they increased mobility following the lifting of COVID-19 social distancing efforts. Its baking products continued to sell well through early April, but on-the-go purchases like candies, mints, and gums started booming. Overall organic sales were up 13% last quarter.\nLook for slower, but still impressive, gains on Thursday. Most investors who follow the stock are expecting sales to rise about 5% to $1.8 billion. That performance would keep Hershey near the top of the snack food niche.PepsiCo, for context, just announced a6% boostin its U.S. snack segment through mid-June.\nBeyond that headline sales figure, watch for Hershey's comments on market share and on the balance between rising sales volumes and prices. Ideally, volume will lead the way higher even as prices increase.\nProfit check-in\nMost globalconsumer staplespeers, including PepsiCo, are posting higher margins right now, but Hershey hasn't yet cashed in on that trend. Gross profit dipped slightly in the second quarter, in fact, which held bottom-line profitability in check.\nThat situation likely improved in recent months thanks to rising prices and a demand tilt toward higher-margin, on-the-go candies and snacks. Most packaged food peers, fromCoca-Cola, toMcCormick, are seeing a lift from these shifts. Hershey won't be left out of the party.\nHSY OPERATING MARGIN (TTM)DATA BYYCHARTS\nMost investors are looking for earnings to jump to $1.44 per share from $1.31 per share a year ago. But the bigger question is whether Hershey can return to setting record operating margins by late 2021.\nThe new outlook\nHeading into this report, CEO Michele Buck and her team's outlook is calling for sales to rise by between 4% and 6% this year, up from their prior forecast of a 2% to 4% uptick. A strong Q2 outing for the business might spur another modest increase to that prediction on Thursday.\nThe earnings outlook was also lifted in April and might get another boost this week, especially if consumers don't balk at Hershey's latest round of price increases.\nLooking further out, the company can reasonably target accelerating sales and earnings growth this year following modest increases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hershey isn't the cheapest or fastest-growing stock in its niche with those kinds of prospects. McCormick and PepsiCo have lower valuations even though they're expanding sales and earnings at a faster clip.\nBut investors still might want to follow Hershey's report this week for signs that the business is on a sustainably stronger path. That's the surest way the company can earn the stock price rally that's seen it outperform most of its rivals over the past year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809887055,"gmtCreate":1627358278277,"gmtModify":1633765745519,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937406888157","idStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What is this?","listText":"What is this?","text":"What is this?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809887055","repostId":"2154998458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809882423,"gmtCreate":1627358119362,"gmtModify":1633765747335,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937406888157","idStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What will happen?","listText":"What will happen?","text":"What will happen?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809882423","repostId":"1103996297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103996297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627357394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103996297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103996297","media":"CNN","summary":"New York Goldman Sachs  slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.During the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.That's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said G","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）高盛（GS）大幅下调了对美国下半年经济活动的预测，指出消费者服务业支出低迷以及Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株带来的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情和复苏开始期间，美国人在商品上花了很多钱：二手车价格飙升，家具和其他家居用品的价格也是如此，以应对需求激增和材料短缺。</blockquote></p><p> But in normal times, consumers spend much more on services like concerts or dining out —and the big spending on goods that has defined the pandemic recovery so far isn't sustainable to keep the US economy growing.</p><p><blockquote>但在正常情况下，消费者在音乐会或外出就餐等服务上的支出要多得多，而迄今为止，疫情复苏的大宗商品支出无法持续保持美国经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> That's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker on Monday in a note to clients. But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家罗尼·沃克周一在给客户的一份报告中表示，这就是为什么人们使用现金的方式需要轮换。但对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧正在压低服务支出。</blockquote></p><p> \"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沃克写道：“支出仍然低迷的服务类别通常要么与高病毒风险有关，例如现场娱乐活动，要么与办公室工作有关，例如地面交通或干洗店。”</blockquote></p><p> In response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.</p><p><blockquote>作为回应，高盛将第三季度和第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期下调了一个百分点，这是衡量经济活动的最广泛指标。</blockquote></p><p> Between July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>7月至9月期间，这家华尔街银行预计年化增长率为8.5%，然后在今年最后三个月降至5%。高盛预测全年GDP增长6.6%。</blockquote></p><p> From 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>从2022年开始，扩张步伐将进一步放缓，回到疫情之前该国通常看到的1.5%至2%的年化增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Even though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大约一半的美国人完全接种了疫苗，但病例仍在上升。约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，在48个州，过去一周新增Covid-19病例的比率比前一周上升了至少10%。在其中34个州，新病例率增加了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>通过该变种感染的上升来得不合时宜：经济仍未恢复正常，感染的死灰复燃可能会使人们无法充分参与经济。</blockquote></p><p> \"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"</p><p><blockquote>沃克说：“虽然大多数消费者似乎对重返高接触服务感到满意，但有些人仍然犹豫不决。”“他们目前可能会保持谨慎，因为德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延使人们对新冠病毒的担忧持续存在，从而推迟了全面复苏。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker wrote.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛的经济学家认为，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的影响将在一定程度上有限：“对政府强制实施的新限制措施的兴趣似乎很低；早期的州级证据显示，到目前为止，对消费者支出的影响很小；而且病毒情况在英国和其他传播最早的国家似乎正在改善，”沃克写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）高盛（GS）大幅下调了对美国下半年经济活动的预测，指出消费者服务业支出低迷以及Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株带来的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情和复苏开始期间，美国人在商品上花了很多钱：二手车价格飙升，家具和其他家居用品的价格也是如此，以应对需求激增和材料短缺。</blockquote></p><p> But in normal times, consumers spend much more on services like concerts or dining out —and the big spending on goods that has defined the pandemic recovery so far isn't sustainable to keep the US economy growing.</p><p><blockquote>但在正常情况下，消费者在音乐会或外出就餐等服务上的支出要多得多，而迄今为止，疫情复苏的大宗商品支出无法持续保持美国经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> That's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker on Monday in a note to clients. But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家罗尼·沃克周一在给客户的一份报告中表示，这就是为什么人们使用现金的方式需要轮换。但对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧正在压低服务支出。</blockquote></p><p> \"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沃克写道：“支出仍然低迷的服务类别通常要么与高病毒风险有关，例如现场娱乐活动，要么与办公室工作有关，例如地面交通或干洗店。”</blockquote></p><p> In response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.</p><p><blockquote>作为回应，高盛将第三季度和第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期下调了一个百分点，这是衡量经济活动的最广泛指标。</blockquote></p><p> Between July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>7月至9月期间，这家华尔街银行预计年化增长率为8.5%，然后在今年最后三个月降至5%。高盛预测全年GDP增长6.6%。</blockquote></p><p> From 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>从2022年开始，扩张步伐将进一步放缓，回到疫情之前该国通常看到的1.5%至2%的年化增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Even though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大约一半的美国人完全接种了疫苗，但病例仍在上升。约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，在48个州，过去一周新增Covid-19病例的比率比前一周上升了至少10%。在其中34个州，新病例率增加了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>通过该变种感染的上升来得不合时宜：经济仍未恢复正常，感染的死灰复燃可能会使人们无法充分参与经济。</blockquote></p><p> \"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"</p><p><blockquote>沃克说：“虽然大多数消费者似乎对重返高接触服务感到满意，但有些人仍然犹豫不决。”“他们目前可能会保持谨慎，因为德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延使人们对新冠病毒的担忧持续存在，从而推迟了全面复苏。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker wrote.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛的经济学家认为，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的影响将在一定程度上有限：“对政府强制实施的新限制措施的兴趣似乎很低；早期的州级证据显示，到目前为止，对消费者支出的影响很小；而且病毒情况在英国和其他传播最早的国家似乎正在改善，”沃克写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/26/economy/goldman-sachs-services-economy-delta/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/26/economy/goldman-sachs-services-economy-delta/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103996297","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.\nDuring the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.\nBut in normal times, consumers spend much more on services like concerts or dining out —and the big spending on goods that has defined the pandemic recovery so far isn't sustainable to keep the US economy growing.\nThat's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker on Monday in a note to clients. But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.\n\"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.\nIn response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.\nBetween July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.\nFrom 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.\nEven though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.\nThe rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.\n\"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"\nAt the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker 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like please","listText":"Help like please","text":"Help like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148509675","repostId":"1184476863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184476863","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625967744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184476863?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184476863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，它生产一款名为G3的SUV和一款名为P7的轿车。此外，该公司计划在9月份发布一款名为G3i的SUV升级版，并在年底发布一款新的家庭友好型轿车P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间都跑赢了标普500指数，自我们6月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在提高交付量方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在6月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的6,565辆汽车，同比增长617%。此外，其第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，而第一季度交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到大流行的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超出了15,500-16,000辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这种势头很可能至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势是在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将其制造或销售外包到其他国家，因为它拥有巨大的当地市场可以销往国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同资助的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉建成第三家制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，2020年特斯拉(TSLA)在华仅售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，运力增加到如此可观的数量表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争并提高其在大陆的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要事实是，小鹏在国内的技术比特斯拉等更先进。其近一半的研发人员从事自动驾驶软件工作，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果最新版本的软件记得车辆所在的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库中。之前停过。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了其中的一些。首先，XPengTrade的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值计算，可以被认为估值很高。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合投资于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，潜在的中美贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所以双重主要上市结构进行了另一次IPO，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者能够通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务在外部市场没有重大敞口，潜在贸易战的影响将很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，但我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以肯定的是，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的推动增长空间，考虑到其第二季度的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测表明，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从2020财年的90万美元增长364%至2022财年的41.8亿美元，而其每股收益损失预计也将从21年第二季度的-0.33美元降至第三季度和第四季度的-0.06美元。除此之外，该公司截至第一季度末拥有51.2亿美元现金，长期债务仅为4.97亿美元，由于最近香港的发行，其流动性状况已达到70亿美元左右。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能需要通过发行新股来筹集新债务或稀释股东权益来为其扩张提供资金。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长股，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为交付量和产能可能会增加，以及未来几个月即将推出的P5轿车可能会推动其股票上涨更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，它生产一款名为G3的SUV和一款名为P7的轿车。此外，该公司计划在9月份发布一款名为G3i的SUV升级版，并在年底发布一款新的家庭友好型轿车P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间都跑赢了标普500指数，自我们6月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在提高交付量方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在6月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的6,565辆汽车，同比增长617%。此外，其第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，而第一季度交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到大流行的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超出了15,500-16,000辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这种势头很可能至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势是在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将其制造或销售外包到其他国家，因为它拥有巨大的当地市场可以销往国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同资助的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉建成第三家制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，2020年特斯拉(TSLA)在华仅售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，运力增加到如此可观的数量表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争并提高其在大陆的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要事实是，小鹏在国内的技术比特斯拉等更先进。其近一半的研发人员从事自动驾驶软件工作，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果最新版本的软件记得车辆所在的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库中。之前停过。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了其中的一些。首先，XPengTrade的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值计算，可以被认为估值很高。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合投资于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，潜在的中美贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所以双重主要上市结构进行了另一次IPO，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者能够通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务在外部市场没有重大敞口，潜在贸易战的影响将很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，但我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以肯定的是，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的推动增长空间，考虑到其第二季度的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测表明，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从2020财年的90万美元增长364%至2022财年的41.8亿美元，而其每股收益损失预计也将从21年第二季度的-0.33美元降至第三季度和第四季度的-0.06美元。除此之外，该公司截至第一季度末拥有51.2亿美元现金，长期债务仅为4.97亿美元，由于最近香港的发行，其流动性状况已达到70亿美元左右。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能需要通过发行新股来筹集新债务或稀释股东权益来为其扩张提供资金。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长股，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为交付量和产能可能会增加，以及未来几个月即将推出的P5轿车可能会推动其股票上涨更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184476863","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.\nBy being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.\nWe continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\n\nRobert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\nFiring On All Cylinders\nXPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest article about its business was published in June.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nOne of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.\nSource:InsideEVs\nThe biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.\nAnother important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.\nRisks\nAs for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.\nIn addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.\nTakeaway\nDespite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.\nThe latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.\nWith all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148509391,"gmtCreate":1625983752413,"gmtModify":1633931093974,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937406888157","idStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice future","listText":"Nice future","text":"Nice future","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a4c9e07ae3a50f60ea7bc6277afbe91","width":"1080","height":"3699"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148509391","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148277211,"gmtCreate":1625983697233,"gmtModify":1633931095593,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937406888157","idStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like please🙏🙏🙏","listText":"Help like please🙏🙏🙏","text":"Help like please🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148277211","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SCHW":"嘉信理财","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","GME":"游戏驿站","BB":"黑莓","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"BB":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"GME":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148814348,"gmtCreate":1625966738384,"gmtModify":1633931337246,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586937406888157","idStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yessss","listText":"Yessss","text":"Yessss","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148814348","repostId":"1176789091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176789091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966668,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176789091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could The iPad Be Apple’s Best Performer in Fiscal Q3?<blockquote>iPad会成为苹果第三财季表现最好的产品吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176789091","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The Apple Maven believes that the iPad could be Apple’s best performer in fiscal Q3. Here is why.\nTh","content":"<p>The Apple Maven believes that the iPad could be Apple’s best performer in fiscal Q3. Here is why.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家认为，iPad可能是苹果第三财季表现最好的产品。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven continues its preview of the Cupertino company’s fiscal third quarter earnings day. So far, we have discussed (1)Wall Street’s expectationsfor revenues and earnings and (2) the expected performance of the iPhone in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果专家继续预览库比蒂诺公司第三财季财报日。到目前为止，我们已经讨论了(1)华尔街对收入和盈利的预期，以及(2)iPhone本季度的预期表现。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we address what could be Apple’s most successful product category in the third fiscal period of 2021: the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们将讨论苹果在2021年第三财年最成功的产品类别：iPad。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544b629337019373222b755bf493104b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"630\"><span>Figure 1: The latest iPad Pro model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：最新的iPad Pro型号。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 2020 pandemic has made winners of tech companies that managed to capitalize on shifting consumer behavior – also known as the “stay at home” trends. This partially explains why iPad revenues have shot through the roof in the past several quarters: growth of at least 30% since fiscal Q2 last year.</p><p><blockquote>2020年的疫情让成功利用消费者行为转变（也称为“呆在家里”趋势）的科技公司成为赢家。这部分解释了为什么iPad收入在过去几个季度飙升：自去年第二财季以来增长了至少30%。</blockquote></p><p> For starters,it has become increasingly obviousthat consumers are not returning to old spending habits, even as the COVID-19 crisis gets closer to an end. Therefore, I see no reason to doubt that iPad sales will impress once again this time, although the growth rate will be partially eclipsed by tough 2020 comps.</p><p><blockquote>首先，越来越明显的是，即使新冠肺炎危机即将结束，消费者也不会恢复旧的消费习惯。因此，我认为没有理由怀疑iPad的销量这次将再次令人印象深刻，尽管增长率将被2020年的强劲业绩部分掩盖。</blockquote></p><p> But the story does not end with the effects of the pandemic. The chart below shows that, since around 2017, Apple has been able to reignite demand for its tablets. Even in 2019, before the pandemic turned the world upside down, iPad sales had already been growing at a respectable 13% pace.</p><p><blockquote>但故事并没有随着疫情的影响而结束。下图显示，自2017年左右以来，苹果已经能够重新点燃对其平板电脑的需求。即使在2019年，在疫情颠覆世界之前，iPad的销量也已经以13%的可观速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b463e314374d0f90f3cedbd13430a0ae\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Figure 2: iPad revenue in millions U.S dollars.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：iPad营收百万美元。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The rebirth of the tablet business, I will be frank,caught me by surprise. The phenomenon can be probably attributed to technological advancements allowing products like the iPad to better replace personal computers (more storage, better graphics, fast processor speed) and even smartphones (wider range of screen sizes, better cameras, introduction of 5G capability).</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，平板电脑业务的重生让我大吃一惊。这种现象可能归因于技术进步，使iPad等产品能够更好地取代个人电脑（更大的存储空间、更好的图形、更快的处理器速度）甚至智能手机（更广泛的屏幕尺寸、更好的摄像头、5G功能的引入）。</blockquote></p><p> Case in point, Research and Marketsbelievesthat tablet revenues across the industry will continue to grow at a CAGR of over 10% through 2023. This is quite an improvement from the days that iPad sales were declining sharply, between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，Research and Markets认为，到2023年，整个行业的平板电脑收入将继续以超过10%的复合年增长率增长。与2014年至2018年间iPad销量急剧下降的日子相比，这是一个很大的进步。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Apple may have performed even better than its tablet competitors in the most recent quarter. First, the company has provenmore capable of managing its supply chain, which could be a plus during times of component shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最后，苹果最近一个季度的表现可能甚至比平板电脑竞争对手还要好。首先，该公司有能力管理其供应链，这在零部件短缺时期可能是一个优势。</blockquote></p><p> But also, Applereleased its new M1-equipped iPad Pro in April. Consumers have been more willing to pay up for better mobile devices lately, which might bode well for Apple’s top-of-the-line tablet. In fact, the iPad’s two percentage pointgainin market share in June could be explained by this product launch.</p><p><blockquote>而且，苹果在4月份发布了搭载M1的新款iPad Pro。消费者最近更愿意为更好的移动设备付费，这对苹果的顶级平板电脑来说可能是个好兆头。事实上，iPad 6月份市场份额增长了两个百分点可以用这次产品发布来解释。</blockquote></p><p> With the most recent tablet release, the entire iPad lineup (except for the less relevant mini version) is only about nine months old today. On the back of a strong product portfolio, the iPad could very well be the brightest star on Apple’s fiscal third quarter earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>随着最新平板电脑的发布，整个iPad系列（除了不太相关的迷你版本）今天只有大约九个月的历史。凭借强大的产品组合，iPad很可能成为苹果第三财季财报日最耀眼的明星。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could The iPad Be Apple’s Best Performer in Fiscal Q3?<blockquote>iPad会成为苹果第三财季表现最好的产品吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould The iPad Be Apple’s Best Performer in Fiscal Q3?<blockquote>iPad会成为苹果第三财季表现最好的产品吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Apple Maven believes that the iPad could be Apple’s best performer in fiscal Q3. Here is why.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家认为，iPad可能是苹果第三财季表现最好的产品。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven continues its preview of the Cupertino company’s fiscal third quarter earnings day. So far, we have discussed (1)Wall Street’s expectationsfor revenues and earnings and (2) the expected performance of the iPhone in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果专家继续预览库比蒂诺公司第三财季财报日。到目前为止，我们已经讨论了(1)华尔街对收入和盈利的预期，以及(2)iPhone本季度的预期表现。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we address what could be Apple’s most successful product category in the third fiscal period of 2021: the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们将讨论苹果在2021年第三财年最成功的产品类别：iPad。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544b629337019373222b755bf493104b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"630\"><span>Figure 1: The latest iPad Pro model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：最新的iPad Pro型号。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 2020 pandemic has made winners of tech companies that managed to capitalize on shifting consumer behavior – also known as the “stay at home” trends. This partially explains why iPad revenues have shot through the roof in the past several quarters: growth of at least 30% since fiscal Q2 last year.</p><p><blockquote>2020年的疫情让成功利用消费者行为转变（也称为“呆在家里”趋势）的科技公司成为赢家。这部分解释了为什么iPad收入在过去几个季度飙升：自去年第二财季以来增长了至少30%。</blockquote></p><p> For starters,it has become increasingly obviousthat consumers are not returning to old spending habits, even as the COVID-19 crisis gets closer to an end. Therefore, I see no reason to doubt that iPad sales will impress once again this time, although the growth rate will be partially eclipsed by tough 2020 comps.</p><p><blockquote>首先，越来越明显的是，即使新冠肺炎危机即将结束，消费者也不会恢复旧的消费习惯。因此，我认为没有理由怀疑iPad的销量这次将再次令人印象深刻，尽管增长率将被2020年的强劲业绩部分掩盖。</blockquote></p><p> But the story does not end with the effects of the pandemic. The chart below shows that, since around 2017, Apple has been able to reignite demand for its tablets. Even in 2019, before the pandemic turned the world upside down, iPad sales had already been growing at a respectable 13% pace.</p><p><blockquote>但故事并没有随着疫情的影响而结束。下图显示，自2017年左右以来，苹果已经能够重新点燃对其平板电脑的需求。即使在2019年，在疫情颠覆世界之前，iPad的销量也已经以13%的可观速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b463e314374d0f90f3cedbd13430a0ae\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Figure 2: iPad revenue in millions U.S dollars.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：iPad营收百万美元。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The rebirth of the tablet business, I will be frank,caught me by surprise. The phenomenon can be probably attributed to technological advancements allowing products like the iPad to better replace personal computers (more storage, better graphics, fast processor speed) and even smartphones (wider range of screen sizes, better cameras, introduction of 5G capability).</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，平板电脑业务的重生让我大吃一惊。这种现象可能归因于技术进步，使iPad等产品能够更好地取代个人电脑（更大的存储空间、更好的图形、更快的处理器速度）甚至智能手机（更广泛的屏幕尺寸、更好的摄像头、5G功能的引入）。</blockquote></p><p> Case in point, Research and Marketsbelievesthat tablet revenues across the industry will continue to grow at a CAGR of over 10% through 2023. This is quite an improvement from the days that iPad sales were declining sharply, between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，Research and Markets认为，到2023年，整个行业的平板电脑收入将继续以超过10%的复合年增长率增长。与2014年至2018年间iPad销量急剧下降的日子相比，这是一个很大的进步。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Apple may have performed even better than its tablet competitors in the most recent quarter. First, the company has provenmore capable of managing its supply chain, which could be a plus during times of component shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最后，苹果最近一个季度的表现可能甚至比平板电脑竞争对手还要好。首先，该公司有能力管理其供应链，这在零部件短缺时期可能是一个优势。</blockquote></p><p> But also, Applereleased its new M1-equipped iPad Pro in April. Consumers have been more willing to pay up for better mobile devices lately, which might bode well for Apple’s top-of-the-line tablet. In fact, the iPad’s two percentage pointgainin market share in June could be explained by this product launch.</p><p><blockquote>而且，苹果在4月份发布了搭载M1的新款iPad Pro。消费者最近更愿意为更好的移动设备付费，这对苹果的顶级平板电脑来说可能是个好兆头。事实上，iPad 6月份市场份额增长了两个百分点可以用这次产品发布来解释。</blockquote></p><p> With the most recent tablet release, the entire iPad lineup (except for the less relevant mini version) is only about nine months old today. On the back of a strong product portfolio, the iPad could very well be the brightest star on Apple’s fiscal third quarter earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>随着最新平板电脑的发布，整个iPad系列（除了不太相关的迷你版本）今天只有大约九个月的历史。凭借强大的产品组合，iPad很可能成为苹果第三财季财报日最耀眼的明星。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/other-products/could-the-ipad-be-apples-best-performer-in-fiscal-q3\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/other-products/could-the-ipad-be-apples-best-performer-in-fiscal-q3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176789091","content_text":"The Apple Maven believes that the iPad could be Apple’s best performer in fiscal Q3. Here is why.\nThe Apple Maven continues its preview of the Cupertino company’s fiscal third quarter earnings day. So far, we have discussed (1)Wall Street’s expectationsfor revenues and earnings and (2) the expected performance of the iPhone in the quarter.\nToday, we address what could be Apple’s most successful product category in the third fiscal period of 2021: the iPad.\nFigure 1: The latest iPad Pro model.\nThe 2020 pandemic has made winners of tech companies that managed to capitalize on shifting consumer behavior – also known as the “stay at home” trends. This partially explains why iPad revenues have shot through the roof in the past several quarters: growth of at least 30% since fiscal Q2 last year.\nFor starters,it has become increasingly obviousthat consumers are not returning to old spending habits, even as the COVID-19 crisis gets closer to an end. Therefore, I see no reason to doubt that iPad sales will impress once again this time, although the growth rate will be partially eclipsed by tough 2020 comps.\nBut the story does not end with the effects of the pandemic. The chart below shows that, since around 2017, Apple has been able to reignite demand for its tablets. Even in 2019, before the pandemic turned the world upside down, iPad sales had already been growing at a respectable 13% pace.\nFigure 2: iPad revenue in millions U.S dollars.\nThe rebirth of the tablet business, I will be frank,caught me by surprise. The phenomenon can be probably attributed to technological advancements allowing products like the iPad to better replace personal computers (more storage, better graphics, fast processor speed) and even smartphones (wider range of screen sizes, better cameras, introduction of 5G capability).\nCase in point, Research and Marketsbelievesthat tablet revenues across the industry will continue to grow at a CAGR of over 10% through 2023. This is quite an improvement from the days that iPad sales were declining sharply, between 2014 and 2018.\nLastly, Apple may have performed even better than its tablet competitors in the most recent quarter. First, the company has provenmore capable of managing its supply chain, which could be a plus during times of component shortages.\nBut also, Applereleased its new M1-equipped iPad Pro in April. Consumers have been more willing to pay up for better mobile devices lately, which might bode well for Apple’s top-of-the-line tablet. In fact, the iPad’s two percentage pointgainin market share in June could be explained by this product launch.\nWith the most recent tablet release, the entire iPad lineup (except for the less relevant mini version) is only about nine months old today. On the back of a strong product portfolio, the iPad could very well be the brightest star on Apple’s fiscal third quarter earnings day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":148277211,"gmtCreate":1625983697233,"gmtModify":1633931095593,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like please🙏🙏🙏","listText":"Help like please🙏🙏🙏","text":"Help like please🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148277211","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SCHW":"嘉信理财","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","GME":"游戏驿站","BB":"黑莓","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"BB":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"GME":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147257359,"gmtCreate":1626360886871,"gmtModify":1633927485145,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crash that last for how long? 1 day?&nbsp;","listText":"Crash that last for how long? 1 day?&nbsp;","text":"Crash that last for how long? 1 day?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147257359","repostId":"1155093230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148509675,"gmtCreate":1625983791297,"gmtModify":1633931093611,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like please","listText":"Help like please","text":"Help like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148509675","repostId":"1184476863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184476863","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625967744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184476863?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184476863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，它生产一款名为G3的SUV和一款名为P7的轿车。此外，该公司计划在9月份发布一款名为G3i的SUV升级版，并在年底发布一款新的家庭友好型轿车P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间都跑赢了标普500指数，自我们6月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在提高交付量方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在6月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的6,565辆汽车，同比增长617%。此外，其第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，而第一季度交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到大流行的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超出了15,500-16,000辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这种势头很可能至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势是在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将其制造或销售外包到其他国家，因为它拥有巨大的当地市场可以销往国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同资助的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉建成第三家制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，2020年特斯拉(TSLA)在华仅售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，运力增加到如此可观的数量表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争并提高其在大陆的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要事实是，小鹏在国内的技术比特斯拉等更先进。其近一半的研发人员从事自动驾驶软件工作，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果最新版本的软件记得车辆所在的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库中。之前停过。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了其中的一些。首先，XPengTrade的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值计算，可以被认为估值很高。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合投资于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，潜在的中美贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所以双重主要上市结构进行了另一次IPO，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者能够通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务在外部市场没有重大敞口，潜在贸易战的影响将很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，但我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以肯定的是，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的推动增长空间，考虑到其第二季度的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测表明，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从2020财年的90万美元增长364%至2022财年的41.8亿美元，而其每股收益损失预计也将从21年第二季度的-0.33美元降至第三季度和第四季度的-0.06美元。除此之外，该公司截至第一季度末拥有51.2亿美元现金，长期债务仅为4.97亿美元，由于最近香港的发行，其流动性状况已达到70亿美元左右。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能需要通过发行新股来筹集新债务或稀释股东权益来为其扩张提供资金。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长股，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为交付量和产能可能会增加，以及未来几个月即将推出的P5轿车可能会推动其股票上涨更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，它生产一款名为G3的SUV和一款名为P7的轿车。此外，该公司计划在9月份发布一款名为G3i的SUV升级版，并在年底发布一款新的家庭友好型轿车P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间都跑赢了标普500指数，自我们6月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在提高交付量方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在6月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的6,565辆汽车，同比增长617%。此外，其第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，而第一季度交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到大流行的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超出了15,500-16,000辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这种势头很可能至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势是在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将其制造或销售外包到其他国家，因为它拥有巨大的当地市场可以销往国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同资助的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉建成第三家制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，2020年特斯拉(TSLA)在华仅售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，运力增加到如此可观的数量表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争并提高其在大陆的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要事实是，小鹏在国内的技术比特斯拉等更先进。其近一半的研发人员从事自动驾驶软件工作，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果最新版本的软件记得车辆所在的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库中。之前停过。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了其中的一些。首先，XPengTrade的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值计算，可以被认为估值很高。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合投资于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，潜在的中美贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所以双重主要上市结构进行了另一次IPO，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者能够通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务在外部市场没有重大敞口，潜在贸易战的影响将很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，但我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以肯定的是，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的推动增长空间，考虑到其第二季度的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测表明，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从2020财年的90万美元增长364%至2022财年的41.8亿美元，而其每股收益损失预计也将从21年第二季度的-0.33美元降至第三季度和第四季度的-0.06美元。除此之外，该公司截至第一季度末拥有51.2亿美元现金，长期债务仅为4.97亿美元，由于最近香港的发行，其流动性状况已达到70亿美元左右。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能需要通过发行新股来筹集新债务或稀释股东权益来为其扩张提供资金。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长股，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为交付量和产能可能会增加，以及未来几个月即将推出的P5轿车可能会推动其股票上涨更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184476863","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.\nBy being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.\nWe continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\n\nRobert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\nFiring On All Cylinders\nXPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest article about its business was published in June.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nOne of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.\nSource:InsideEVs\nThe biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.\nAnother important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.\nRisks\nAs for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.\nIn addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.\nTakeaway\nDespite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.\nThe latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.\nWith all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170560562,"gmtCreate":1626442866156,"gmtModify":1633926717610,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170560562","repostId":"1171115394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148814348,"gmtCreate":1625966738384,"gmtModify":1633931337246,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yessss","listText":"Yessss","text":"Yessss","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148814348","repostId":"1176789091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176789091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966668,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176789091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could The iPad Be Apple’s Best Performer in Fiscal Q3?<blockquote>iPad会成为苹果第三财季表现最好的产品吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176789091","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The Apple Maven believes that the iPad could be Apple’s best performer in fiscal Q3. Here is why.\nTh","content":"<p>The Apple Maven believes that the iPad could be Apple’s best performer in fiscal Q3. Here is why.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家认为，iPad可能是苹果第三财季表现最好的产品。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven continues its preview of the Cupertino company’s fiscal third quarter earnings day. So far, we have discussed (1)Wall Street’s expectationsfor revenues and earnings and (2) the expected performance of the iPhone in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果专家继续预览库比蒂诺公司第三财季财报日。到目前为止，我们已经讨论了(1)华尔街对收入和盈利的预期，以及(2)iPhone本季度的预期表现。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we address what could be Apple’s most successful product category in the third fiscal period of 2021: the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们将讨论苹果在2021年第三财年最成功的产品类别：iPad。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544b629337019373222b755bf493104b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"630\"><span>Figure 1: The latest iPad Pro model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：最新的iPad Pro型号。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 2020 pandemic has made winners of tech companies that managed to capitalize on shifting consumer behavior – also known as the “stay at home” trends. This partially explains why iPad revenues have shot through the roof in the past several quarters: growth of at least 30% since fiscal Q2 last year.</p><p><blockquote>2020年的疫情让成功利用消费者行为转变（也称为“呆在家里”趋势）的科技公司成为赢家。这部分解释了为什么iPad收入在过去几个季度飙升：自去年第二财季以来增长了至少30%。</blockquote></p><p> For starters,it has become increasingly obviousthat consumers are not returning to old spending habits, even as the COVID-19 crisis gets closer to an end. Therefore, I see no reason to doubt that iPad sales will impress once again this time, although the growth rate will be partially eclipsed by tough 2020 comps.</p><p><blockquote>首先，越来越明显的是，即使新冠肺炎危机即将结束，消费者也不会恢复旧的消费习惯。因此，我认为没有理由怀疑iPad的销量这次将再次令人印象深刻，尽管增长率将被2020年的强劲业绩部分掩盖。</blockquote></p><p> But the story does not end with the effects of the pandemic. The chart below shows that, since around 2017, Apple has been able to reignite demand for its tablets. Even in 2019, before the pandemic turned the world upside down, iPad sales had already been growing at a respectable 13% pace.</p><p><blockquote>但故事并没有随着疫情的影响而结束。下图显示，自2017年左右以来，苹果已经能够重新点燃对其平板电脑的需求。即使在2019年，在疫情颠覆世界之前，iPad的销量也已经以13%的可观速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b463e314374d0f90f3cedbd13430a0ae\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Figure 2: iPad revenue in millions U.S dollars.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：iPad营收百万美元。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The rebirth of the tablet business, I will be frank,caught me by surprise. The phenomenon can be probably attributed to technological advancements allowing products like the iPad to better replace personal computers (more storage, better graphics, fast processor speed) and even smartphones (wider range of screen sizes, better cameras, introduction of 5G capability).</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，平板电脑业务的重生让我大吃一惊。这种现象可能归因于技术进步，使iPad等产品能够更好地取代个人电脑（更大的存储空间、更好的图形、更快的处理器速度）甚至智能手机（更广泛的屏幕尺寸、更好的摄像头、5G功能的引入）。</blockquote></p><p> Case in point, Research and Marketsbelievesthat tablet revenues across the industry will continue to grow at a CAGR of over 10% through 2023. This is quite an improvement from the days that iPad sales were declining sharply, between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，Research and Markets认为，到2023年，整个行业的平板电脑收入将继续以超过10%的复合年增长率增长。与2014年至2018年间iPad销量急剧下降的日子相比，这是一个很大的进步。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Apple may have performed even better than its tablet competitors in the most recent quarter. First, the company has provenmore capable of managing its supply chain, which could be a plus during times of component shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最后，苹果最近一个季度的表现可能甚至比平板电脑竞争对手还要好。首先，该公司有能力管理其供应链，这在零部件短缺时期可能是一个优势。</blockquote></p><p> But also, Applereleased its new M1-equipped iPad Pro in April. Consumers have been more willing to pay up for better mobile devices lately, which might bode well for Apple’s top-of-the-line tablet. In fact, the iPad’s two percentage pointgainin market share in June could be explained by this product launch.</p><p><blockquote>而且，苹果在4月份发布了搭载M1的新款iPad Pro。消费者最近更愿意为更好的移动设备付费，这对苹果的顶级平板电脑来说可能是个好兆头。事实上，iPad 6月份市场份额增长了两个百分点可以用这次产品发布来解释。</blockquote></p><p> With the most recent tablet release, the entire iPad lineup (except for the less relevant mini version) is only about nine months old today. On the back of a strong product portfolio, the iPad could very well be the brightest star on Apple’s fiscal third quarter earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>随着最新平板电脑的发布，整个iPad系列（除了不太相关的迷你版本）今天只有大约九个月的历史。凭借强大的产品组合，iPad很可能成为苹果第三财季财报日最耀眼的明星。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could The iPad Be Apple’s Best Performer in Fiscal Q3?<blockquote>iPad会成为苹果第三财季表现最好的产品吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould The iPad Be Apple’s Best Performer in Fiscal Q3?<blockquote>iPad会成为苹果第三财季表现最好的产品吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Apple Maven believes that the iPad could be Apple’s best performer in fiscal Q3. Here is why.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家认为，iPad可能是苹果第三财季表现最好的产品。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven continues its preview of the Cupertino company’s fiscal third quarter earnings day. So far, we have discussed (1)Wall Street’s expectationsfor revenues and earnings and (2) the expected performance of the iPhone in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果专家继续预览库比蒂诺公司第三财季财报日。到目前为止，我们已经讨论了(1)华尔街对收入和盈利的预期，以及(2)iPhone本季度的预期表现。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we address what could be Apple’s most successful product category in the third fiscal period of 2021: the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们将讨论苹果在2021年第三财年最成功的产品类别：iPad。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544b629337019373222b755bf493104b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"630\"><span>Figure 1: The latest iPad Pro model.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：最新的iPad Pro型号。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The 2020 pandemic has made winners of tech companies that managed to capitalize on shifting consumer behavior – also known as the “stay at home” trends. This partially explains why iPad revenues have shot through the roof in the past several quarters: growth of at least 30% since fiscal Q2 last year.</p><p><blockquote>2020年的疫情让成功利用消费者行为转变（也称为“呆在家里”趋势）的科技公司成为赢家。这部分解释了为什么iPad收入在过去几个季度飙升：自去年第二财季以来增长了至少30%。</blockquote></p><p> For starters,it has become increasingly obviousthat consumers are not returning to old spending habits, even as the COVID-19 crisis gets closer to an end. Therefore, I see no reason to doubt that iPad sales will impress once again this time, although the growth rate will be partially eclipsed by tough 2020 comps.</p><p><blockquote>首先，越来越明显的是，即使新冠肺炎危机即将结束，消费者也不会恢复旧的消费习惯。因此，我认为没有理由怀疑iPad的销量这次将再次令人印象深刻，尽管增长率将被2020年的强劲业绩部分掩盖。</blockquote></p><p> But the story does not end with the effects of the pandemic. The chart below shows that, since around 2017, Apple has been able to reignite demand for its tablets. Even in 2019, before the pandemic turned the world upside down, iPad sales had already been growing at a respectable 13% pace.</p><p><blockquote>但故事并没有随着疫情的影响而结束。下图显示，自2017年左右以来，苹果已经能够重新点燃对其平板电脑的需求。即使在2019年，在疫情颠覆世界之前，iPad的销量也已经以13%的可观速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b463e314374d0f90f3cedbd13430a0ae\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Figure 2: iPad revenue in millions U.S dollars.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：iPad营收百万美元。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The rebirth of the tablet business, I will be frank,caught me by surprise. The phenomenon can be probably attributed to technological advancements allowing products like the iPad to better replace personal computers (more storage, better graphics, fast processor speed) and even smartphones (wider range of screen sizes, better cameras, introduction of 5G capability).</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，平板电脑业务的重生让我大吃一惊。这种现象可能归因于技术进步，使iPad等产品能够更好地取代个人电脑（更大的存储空间、更好的图形、更快的处理器速度）甚至智能手机（更广泛的屏幕尺寸、更好的摄像头、5G功能的引入）。</blockquote></p><p> Case in point, Research and Marketsbelievesthat tablet revenues across the industry will continue to grow at a CAGR of over 10% through 2023. This is quite an improvement from the days that iPad sales were declining sharply, between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，Research and Markets认为，到2023年，整个行业的平板电脑收入将继续以超过10%的复合年增长率增长。与2014年至2018年间iPad销量急剧下降的日子相比，这是一个很大的进步。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Apple may have performed even better than its tablet competitors in the most recent quarter. First, the company has provenmore capable of managing its supply chain, which could be a plus during times of component shortages.</p><p><blockquote>最后，苹果最近一个季度的表现可能甚至比平板电脑竞争对手还要好。首先，该公司有能力管理其供应链，这在零部件短缺时期可能是一个优势。</blockquote></p><p> But also, Applereleased its new M1-equipped iPad Pro in April. Consumers have been more willing to pay up for better mobile devices lately, which might bode well for Apple’s top-of-the-line tablet. In fact, the iPad’s two percentage pointgainin market share in June could be explained by this product launch.</p><p><blockquote>而且，苹果在4月份发布了搭载M1的新款iPad Pro。消费者最近更愿意为更好的移动设备付费，这对苹果的顶级平板电脑来说可能是个好兆头。事实上，iPad 6月份市场份额增长了两个百分点可以用这次产品发布来解释。</blockquote></p><p> With the most recent tablet release, the entire iPad lineup (except for the less relevant mini version) is only about nine months old today. On the back of a strong product portfolio, the iPad could very well be the brightest star on Apple’s fiscal third quarter earnings day.</p><p><blockquote>随着最新平板电脑的发布，整个iPad系列（除了不太相关的迷你版本）今天只有大约九个月的历史。凭借强大的产品组合，iPad很可能成为苹果第三财季财报日最耀眼的明星。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/other-products/could-the-ipad-be-apples-best-performer-in-fiscal-q3\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/other-products/could-the-ipad-be-apples-best-performer-in-fiscal-q3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176789091","content_text":"The Apple Maven believes that the iPad could be Apple’s best performer in fiscal Q3. Here is why.\nThe Apple Maven continues its preview of the Cupertino company’s fiscal third quarter earnings day. So far, we have discussed (1)Wall Street’s expectationsfor revenues and earnings and (2) the expected performance of the iPhone in the quarter.\nToday, we address what could be Apple’s most successful product category in the third fiscal period of 2021: the iPad.\nFigure 1: The latest iPad Pro model.\nThe 2020 pandemic has made winners of tech companies that managed to capitalize on shifting consumer behavior – also known as the “stay at home” trends. This partially explains why iPad revenues have shot through the roof in the past several quarters: growth of at least 30% since fiscal Q2 last year.\nFor starters,it has become increasingly obviousthat consumers are not returning to old spending habits, even as the COVID-19 crisis gets closer to an end. Therefore, I see no reason to doubt that iPad sales will impress once again this time, although the growth rate will be partially eclipsed by tough 2020 comps.\nBut the story does not end with the effects of the pandemic. The chart below shows that, since around 2017, Apple has been able to reignite demand for its tablets. Even in 2019, before the pandemic turned the world upside down, iPad sales had already been growing at a respectable 13% pace.\nFigure 2: iPad revenue in millions U.S dollars.\nThe rebirth of the tablet business, I will be frank,caught me by surprise. The phenomenon can be probably attributed to technological advancements allowing products like the iPad to better replace personal computers (more storage, better graphics, fast processor speed) and even smartphones (wider range of screen sizes, better cameras, introduction of 5G capability).\nCase in point, Research and Marketsbelievesthat tablet revenues across the industry will continue to grow at a CAGR of over 10% through 2023. This is quite an improvement from the days that iPad sales were declining sharply, between 2014 and 2018.\nLastly, Apple may have performed even better than its tablet competitors in the most recent quarter. First, the company has provenmore capable of managing its supply chain, which could be a plus during times of component shortages.\nBut also, Applereleased its new M1-equipped iPad Pro in April. Consumers have been more willing to pay up for better mobile devices lately, which might bode well for Apple’s top-of-the-line tablet. In fact, the iPad’s two percentage pointgainin market share in June could be explained by this product launch.\nWith the most recent tablet release, the entire iPad lineup (except for the less relevant mini version) is only about nine months old today. On the back of a strong product portfolio, the iPad could very well be the brightest star on Apple’s fiscal third quarter earnings day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809882423,"gmtCreate":1627358119362,"gmtModify":1633765747335,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What will happen?","listText":"What will happen?","text":"What will happen?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809882423","repostId":"1103996297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103996297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627357394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103996297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103996297","media":"CNN","summary":"New York Goldman Sachs  slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.During the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.That's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said G","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）高盛（GS）大幅下调了对美国下半年经济活动的预测，指出消费者服务业支出低迷以及Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株带来的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情和复苏开始期间，美国人在商品上花了很多钱：二手车价格飙升，家具和其他家居用品的价格也是如此，以应对需求激增和材料短缺。</blockquote></p><p> But in normal times, consumers spend much more on services like concerts or dining out —and the big spending on goods that has defined the pandemic recovery so far isn't sustainable to keep the US economy growing.</p><p><blockquote>但在正常情况下，消费者在音乐会或外出就餐等服务上的支出要多得多，而迄今为止，疫情复苏的大宗商品支出无法持续保持美国经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> That's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker on Monday in a note to clients. But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家罗尼·沃克周一在给客户的一份报告中表示，这就是为什么人们使用现金的方式需要轮换。但对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧正在压低服务支出。</blockquote></p><p> \"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沃克写道：“支出仍然低迷的服务类别通常要么与高病毒风险有关，例如现场娱乐活动，要么与办公室工作有关，例如地面交通或干洗店。”</blockquote></p><p> In response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.</p><p><blockquote>作为回应，高盛将第三季度和第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期下调了一个百分点，这是衡量经济活动的最广泛指标。</blockquote></p><p> Between July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>7月至9月期间，这家华尔街银行预计年化增长率为8.5%，然后在今年最后三个月降至5%。高盛预测全年GDP增长6.6%。</blockquote></p><p> From 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>从2022年开始，扩张步伐将进一步放缓，回到疫情之前该国通常看到的1.5%至2%的年化增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Even though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大约一半的美国人完全接种了疫苗，但病例仍在上升。约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，在48个州，过去一周新增Covid-19病例的比率比前一周上升了至少10%。在其中34个州，新病例率增加了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>通过该变种感染的上升来得不合时宜：经济仍未恢复正常，感染的死灰复燃可能会使人们无法充分参与经济。</blockquote></p><p> \"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"</p><p><blockquote>沃克说：“虽然大多数消费者似乎对重返高接触服务感到满意，但有些人仍然犹豫不决。”“他们目前可能会保持谨慎，因为德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延使人们对新冠病毒的担忧持续存在，从而推迟了全面复苏。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker wrote.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛的经济学家认为，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的影响将在一定程度上有限：“对政府强制实施的新限制措施的兴趣似乎很低；早期的州级证据显示，到目前为止，对消费者支出的影响很小；而且病毒情况在英国和其他传播最早的国家似乎正在改善，”沃克写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs slashes US economic growth forecast over weaker spending on services<blockquote>高盛因服务业支出疲软下调美国经济增长预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）高盛（GS）大幅下调了对美国下半年经济活动的预测，指出消费者服务业支出低迷以及Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株带来的威胁。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情和复苏开始期间，美国人在商品上花了很多钱：二手车价格飙升，家具和其他家居用品的价格也是如此，以应对需求激增和材料短缺。</blockquote></p><p> But in normal times, consumers spend much more on services like concerts or dining out —and the big spending on goods that has defined the pandemic recovery so far isn't sustainable to keep the US economy growing.</p><p><blockquote>但在正常情况下，消费者在音乐会或外出就餐等服务上的支出要多得多，而迄今为止，疫情复苏的大宗商品支出无法持续保持美国经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> That's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker on Monday in a note to clients. But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家罗尼·沃克周一在给客户的一份报告中表示，这就是为什么人们使用现金的方式需要轮换。但对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧正在压低服务支出。</blockquote></p><p> \"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沃克写道：“支出仍然低迷的服务类别通常要么与高病毒风险有关，例如现场娱乐活动，要么与办公室工作有关，例如地面交通或干洗店。”</blockquote></p><p> In response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.</p><p><blockquote>作为回应，高盛将第三季度和第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期下调了一个百分点，这是衡量经济活动的最广泛指标。</blockquote></p><p> Between July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>7月至9月期间，这家华尔街银行预计年化增长率为8.5%，然后在今年最后三个月降至5%。高盛预测全年GDP增长6.6%。</blockquote></p><p> From 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>从2022年开始，扩张步伐将进一步放缓，回到疫情之前该国通常看到的1.5%至2%的年化增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Even though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大约一半的美国人完全接种了疫苗，但病例仍在上升。约翰·霍普金斯大学的数据显示，在48个州，过去一周新增Covid-19病例的比率比前一周上升了至少10%。在其中34个州，新病例率增加了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>通过该变种感染的上升来得不合时宜：经济仍未恢复正常，感染的死灰复燃可能会使人们无法充分参与经济。</blockquote></p><p> \"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"</p><p><blockquote>沃克说：“虽然大多数消费者似乎对重返高接触服务感到满意，但有些人仍然犹豫不决。”“他们目前可能会保持谨慎，因为德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延使人们对新冠病毒的担忧持续存在，从而推迟了全面复苏。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker wrote.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛的经济学家认为，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的影响将在一定程度上有限：“对政府强制实施的新限制措施的兴趣似乎很低；早期的州级证据显示，到目前为止，对消费者支出的影响很小；而且病毒情况在英国和其他传播最早的国家似乎正在改善，”沃克写道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/26/economy/goldman-sachs-services-economy-delta/index.html\">CNN</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/26/economy/goldman-sachs-services-economy-delta/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103996297","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its forecast for US economic activity in the second half of the year, pointing to sluggish consumer spending on services as well as the threats posed by the Covid-19 Delta variant.\nDuring the pandemic and the start of the recovery, Americans spent big on goods: Used car prices soared, as did prices for furniture and other household items, in response to surging demand and shortages of materials.\nBut in normal times, consumers spend much more on services like concerts or dining out —and the big spending on goods that has defined the pandemic recovery so far isn't sustainable to keep the US economy growing.\nThat's why rotation is necessary in how people spend their cash, said Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker on Monday in a note to clients. But fears around the Delta variant are keeping services spending down.\n\"The services categories where spending remains depressed are generally either associated with high virus risk, such as live entertainment events, or connected to office-based work, such as ground transportation or dry cleaners,\" Walker wrote.\nIn response, Goldman slashed its gross domestic product growth forecast, the widest measure of economic activity, by one percentage point in both the third and fourth quarters.\nBetween July and September, the Wall Street bank expected 8.5% annualized growth, before dropping to 5% in the last three months of the year. For the full year, Goldman predicts 6.6% GDP growth.\nFrom 2022 on, the pace of expansion will slow further, trending back toward the 1.5% to 2% annualized growth what the nation typically saw before the pandemic.\nEven though roughly half of Americans are fully vaccinated, cases are rising. In 48 states, the rate of new Covid-19 cases in the past week jumped by at least 10% compared to the previous week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. In 34 of those states, the rate of new cases increased by more than 50%.\nThe rise of infections through the variant is coming at an inopportune time: The economy is still not back to normal, and the resurgence of infections could keep people from fully participating in the economy.\n\"While most consumers appear to be comfortable returning to high-contact services, some are still hesitant,\" said Walker. \"They are likely to remain cautious for now as the spread of the Delta variant keeps Covid fears alive, delaying a full recovery.\"\nAt the same time, Goldman's economists believe the Delta variant's impact on the economy will be somewhat limited: \"Appetite for new government-mandated restrictions appears low; early state-level evidence shows little impact on consumer spending so far; and the virus situation already appears to be improving in the United Kingdom and other countries where it spread earliest,\" Walker wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809662961,"gmtCreate":1627366581553,"gmtModify":1633765674091,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep ask me.leave comment. After left, nvr give me coin?","listText":"Keep ask me.leave comment. After left, nvr give me coin?","text":"Keep ask me.leave comment. After left, nvr give me coin?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809662961","repostId":"2154309969","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809860340,"gmtCreate":1627358314580,"gmtModify":1633765744238,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment at where?","listText":"Comment at where?","text":"Comment at where?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809860340","repostId":"1124522176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124522176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627355553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124522176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 11:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hershey Earnings: What to Watch<blockquote>好时盈利：值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124522176","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Hershey(NYSE:HSY)shareholders are in for a treat. The confectioner is set to announce earnings resul","content":"<p><b>Hershey</b>(NYSE:HSY)shareholders are in for a treat. The confectioner is set to announce earnings results for the second quarter on Thursday, July 29. And if its recent momentum is any guide, that report might include strong sales and earnings growth, along with another upgrade to management's 2021 forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>赫尔希</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HSY）股东们将享受到一份享受。该糖果制造商将于7月29日星期四公布第二季度盈利结果。如果其最近的势头有任何指导意义的话，该报告可能包括强劲的销售和盈利增长，以及管理层对2021年预测的再次升级。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> More mobility</p><p><blockquote>更多机动性</blockquote></p><p> There's every reason to expect big sales numbers in Thursday's announcement. Hershey said back in April that its portfolio was resonating with consumers, especially as they increased mobility following the lifting of COVID-19 social distancing efforts. Its baking products continued to sell well through early April, but on-the-go purchases like candies, mints, and gums started booming. Overall organic sales were up 13% last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>有充分的理由期待周四的公告中的大销售数字。好时早在4月份就表示，其产品组合引起了消费者的共鸣，特别是在COVID-19社交距离措施解除后，他们增加了流动性。其烘焙产品在四月初继续畅销，但糖果、薄荷糖和口香糖等移动购买开始蓬勃发展。上季度整体有机销售额增长了13%。</blockquote></p><p> Look for slower, but still impressive, gains on Thursday. Most investors who follow the stock are expecting sales to rise about 5% to $1.8 billion. That performance would keep Hershey near the top of the snack food niche.<b>PepsiCo</b>, for context, just announced a6% boostin its U.S. snack segment through mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>期待周四的涨幅放缓，但仍令人印象深刻。大多数关注该股的投资者预计销售额将增长约5%，达到18亿美元。这一表现将使好时在休闲食品领域保持领先地位。<b>百事可乐</b>就背景而言，该公司刚刚宣布截至6月中旬其美国零食业务增长6%。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that headline sales figure, watch for Hershey's comments on market share and on the balance between rising sales volumes and prices. Ideally, volume will lead the way higher even as prices increase.</p><p><blockquote>除了总体销售数据之外，请关注好时对市场份额以及销量增长与价格之间平衡的评论。理想情况下，即使价格上涨，成交量也会领先。</blockquote></p><p> Profit check-in</p><p><blockquote>利润签到</blockquote></p><p> Most globalconsumer staplespeers, including PepsiCo, are posting higher margins right now, but Hershey hasn't yet cashed in on that trend. Gross profit dipped slightly in the second quarter, in fact, which held bottom-line profitability in check.</p><p><blockquote>包括百事可乐在内的大多数全球消费必需品公司目前都公布了更高的利润率，但好时尚未从这一趋势中获利。事实上，第二季度毛利润略有下降，这抑制了底线盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> That situation likely improved in recent months thanks to rising prices and a demand tilt toward higher-margin, on-the-go candies and snacks. Most packaged food peers, from<b>Coca-Cola</b>, to<b>McCormick</b>, are seeing a lift from these shifts. Hershey won't be left out of the party.</p><p><blockquote>由于价格上涨以及需求向利润更高、移动糖果和零食倾斜，这种情况近几个月可能有所改善。大多数包装食品同行，来自<b>可口可乐</b>，到<b>麦考密克</b>，正在从这些转变中看到提升。好时不会被排除在派对之外。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8a32471591d4b0092cce99e3766887\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>HSY OPERATING MARGIN (TTM)DATA BYYCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HSY营业利润率(TTM)数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Most investors are looking for earnings to jump to $1.44 per share from $1.31 per share a year ago. But the bigger question is whether Hershey can return to setting record operating margins by late 2021.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者预计每股收益将从一年前的每股1.31美元跃升至1.44美元。但更大的问题是好时能否在2021年底前恢复创纪录的营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> The new outlook</p><p><blockquote>新展望</blockquote></p><p> Heading into this report, CEO Michele Buck and her team's outlook is calling for sales to rise by between 4% and 6% this year, up from their prior forecast of a 2% to 4% uptick. A strong Q2 outing for the business might spur another modest increase to that prediction on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>在这份报告中，首席执行官米歇尔·巴克(Michele Buck)和她的团队的展望是，今年的销售额将增长4%至6%，高于他们之前预测的2%至4%。该业务第二季度的强劲表现可能会刺激周四这一预测再次小幅上调。</blockquote></p><p> The earnings outlook was also lifted in April and might get another boost this week, especially if consumers don't balk at Hershey's latest round of price increases.</p><p><blockquote>四月份的盈利前景也被上调，本周可能会再次提振，特别是如果消费者不回避好时最新一轮的价格上涨的话。</blockquote></p><p> Looking further out, the company can reasonably target accelerating sales and earnings growth this year following modest increases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hershey isn't the cheapest or fastest-growing stock in its niche with those kinds of prospects. McCormick and PepsiCo have lower valuations even though they're expanding sales and earnings at a faster clip.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，在COVID-19大流行期间略有增长后，该公司可以合理地设定今年加速销售和盈利增长的目标。好时并不是具有此类前景的利基市场中最便宜或增长最快的股票。尽管味好美和百事可乐正在以更快的速度扩大销售额和盈利，但它们的估值较低。</blockquote></p><p> But investors still might want to follow Hershey's report this week for signs that the business is on a sustainably stronger path. That's the surest way the company can earn the stock price rally that's seen it outperform most of its rivals over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者可能仍希望关注好时本周的报告，以寻找该业务正在走上可持续强劲道路的迹象。这是该公司赢得股价上涨的最可靠方式，过去一年该公司的表现优于大多数竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hershey Earnings: What to Watch<blockquote>好时盈利：值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHershey Earnings: What to Watch<blockquote>好时盈利：值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 11:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Hershey</b>(NYSE:HSY)shareholders are in for a treat. The confectioner is set to announce earnings results for the second quarter on Thursday, July 29. And if its recent momentum is any guide, that report might include strong sales and earnings growth, along with another upgrade to management's 2021 forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>赫尔希</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HSY）股东们将享受到一份享受。该糖果制造商将于7月29日星期四公布第二季度盈利结果。如果其最近的势头有任何指导意义的话，该报告可能包括强劲的销售和盈利增长，以及管理层对2021年预测的再次升级。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> More mobility</p><p><blockquote>更多机动性</blockquote></p><p> There's every reason to expect big sales numbers in Thursday's announcement. Hershey said back in April that its portfolio was resonating with consumers, especially as they increased mobility following the lifting of COVID-19 social distancing efforts. Its baking products continued to sell well through early April, but on-the-go purchases like candies, mints, and gums started booming. Overall organic sales were up 13% last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>有充分的理由期待周四的公告中的大销售数字。好时早在4月份就表示，其产品组合引起了消费者的共鸣，特别是在COVID-19社交距离措施解除后，他们增加了流动性。其烘焙产品在四月初继续畅销，但糖果、薄荷糖和口香糖等移动购买开始蓬勃发展。上季度整体有机销售额增长了13%。</blockquote></p><p> Look for slower, but still impressive, gains on Thursday. Most investors who follow the stock are expecting sales to rise about 5% to $1.8 billion. That performance would keep Hershey near the top of the snack food niche.<b>PepsiCo</b>, for context, just announced a6% boostin its U.S. snack segment through mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>期待周四的涨幅放缓，但仍令人印象深刻。大多数关注该股的投资者预计销售额将增长约5%，达到18亿美元。这一表现将使好时在休闲食品领域保持领先地位。<b>百事可乐</b>就背景而言，该公司刚刚宣布截至6月中旬其美国零食业务增长6%。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that headline sales figure, watch for Hershey's comments on market share and on the balance between rising sales volumes and prices. Ideally, volume will lead the way higher even as prices increase.</p><p><blockquote>除了总体销售数据之外，请关注好时对市场份额以及销量增长与价格之间平衡的评论。理想情况下，即使价格上涨，成交量也会领先。</blockquote></p><p> Profit check-in</p><p><blockquote>利润签到</blockquote></p><p> Most globalconsumer staplespeers, including PepsiCo, are posting higher margins right now, but Hershey hasn't yet cashed in on that trend. Gross profit dipped slightly in the second quarter, in fact, which held bottom-line profitability in check.</p><p><blockquote>包括百事可乐在内的大多数全球消费必需品公司目前都公布了更高的利润率，但好时尚未从这一趋势中获利。事实上，第二季度毛利润略有下降，这抑制了底线盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> That situation likely improved in recent months thanks to rising prices and a demand tilt toward higher-margin, on-the-go candies and snacks. Most packaged food peers, from<b>Coca-Cola</b>, to<b>McCormick</b>, are seeing a lift from these shifts. Hershey won't be left out of the party.</p><p><blockquote>由于价格上涨以及需求向利润更高、移动糖果和零食倾斜，这种情况近几个月可能有所改善。大多数包装食品同行，来自<b>可口可乐</b>，到<b>麦考密克</b>，正在从这些转变中看到提升。好时不会被排除在派对之外。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f8a32471591d4b0092cce99e3766887\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>HSY OPERATING MARGIN (TTM)DATA BYYCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HSY营业利润率(TTM)数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Most investors are looking for earnings to jump to $1.44 per share from $1.31 per share a year ago. But the bigger question is whether Hershey can return to setting record operating margins by late 2021.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者预计每股收益将从一年前的每股1.31美元跃升至1.44美元。但更大的问题是好时能否在2021年底前恢复创纪录的营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> The new outlook</p><p><blockquote>新展望</blockquote></p><p> Heading into this report, CEO Michele Buck and her team's outlook is calling for sales to rise by between 4% and 6% this year, up from their prior forecast of a 2% to 4% uptick. A strong Q2 outing for the business might spur another modest increase to that prediction on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>在这份报告中，首席执行官米歇尔·巴克(Michele Buck)和她的团队的展望是，今年的销售额将增长4%至6%，高于他们之前预测的2%至4%。该业务第二季度的强劲表现可能会刺激周四这一预测再次小幅上调。</blockquote></p><p> The earnings outlook was also lifted in April and might get another boost this week, especially if consumers don't balk at Hershey's latest round of price increases.</p><p><blockquote>四月份的盈利前景也被上调，本周可能会再次提振，特别是如果消费者不回避好时最新一轮的价格上涨的话。</blockquote></p><p> Looking further out, the company can reasonably target accelerating sales and earnings growth this year following modest increases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hershey isn't the cheapest or fastest-growing stock in its niche with those kinds of prospects. McCormick and PepsiCo have lower valuations even though they're expanding sales and earnings at a faster clip.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，在COVID-19大流行期间略有增长后，该公司可以合理地设定今年加速销售和盈利增长的目标。好时并不是具有此类前景的利基市场中最便宜或增长最快的股票。尽管味好美和百事可乐正在以更快的速度扩大销售额和盈利，但它们的估值较低。</blockquote></p><p> But investors still might want to follow Hershey's report this week for signs that the business is on a sustainably stronger path. That's the surest way the company can earn the stock price rally that's seen it outperform most of its rivals over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者可能仍希望关注好时本周的报告，以寻找该业务正在走上可持续强劲道路的迹象。这是该公司赢得股价上涨的最可靠方式，过去一年该公司的表现优于大多数竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/hershey-earnings-what-to-watch/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSY":"好时"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/26/hershey-earnings-what-to-watch/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124522176","content_text":"Hershey(NYSE:HSY)shareholders are in for a treat. The confectioner is set to announce earnings results for the second quarter on Thursday, July 29. And if its recent momentum is any guide, that report might include strong sales and earnings growth, along with another upgrade to management's 2021 forecast.\nLet's take a closer look.\nMore mobility\nThere's every reason to expect big sales numbers in Thursday's announcement. Hershey said back in April that its portfolio was resonating with consumers, especially as they increased mobility following the lifting of COVID-19 social distancing efforts. Its baking products continued to sell well through early April, but on-the-go purchases like candies, mints, and gums started booming. Overall organic sales were up 13% last quarter.\nLook for slower, but still impressive, gains on Thursday. Most investors who follow the stock are expecting sales to rise about 5% to $1.8 billion. That performance would keep Hershey near the top of the snack food niche.PepsiCo, for context, just announced a6% boostin its U.S. snack segment through mid-June.\nBeyond that headline sales figure, watch for Hershey's comments on market share and on the balance between rising sales volumes and prices. Ideally, volume will lead the way higher even as prices increase.\nProfit check-in\nMost globalconsumer staplespeers, including PepsiCo, are posting higher margins right now, but Hershey hasn't yet cashed in on that trend. Gross profit dipped slightly in the second quarter, in fact, which held bottom-line profitability in check.\nThat situation likely improved in recent months thanks to rising prices and a demand tilt toward higher-margin, on-the-go candies and snacks. Most packaged food peers, fromCoca-Cola, toMcCormick, are seeing a lift from these shifts. Hershey won't be left out of the party.\nHSY OPERATING MARGIN (TTM)DATA BYYCHARTS\nMost investors are looking for earnings to jump to $1.44 per share from $1.31 per share a year ago. But the bigger question is whether Hershey can return to setting record operating margins by late 2021.\nThe new outlook\nHeading into this report, CEO Michele Buck and her team's outlook is calling for sales to rise by between 4% and 6% this year, up from their prior forecast of a 2% to 4% uptick. A strong Q2 outing for the business might spur another modest increase to that prediction on Thursday.\nThe earnings outlook was also lifted in April and might get another boost this week, especially if consumers don't balk at Hershey's latest round of price increases.\nLooking further out, the company can reasonably target accelerating sales and earnings growth this year following modest increases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hershey isn't the cheapest or fastest-growing stock in its niche with those kinds of prospects. McCormick and PepsiCo have lower valuations even though they're expanding sales and earnings at a faster clip.\nBut investors still might want to follow Hershey's report this week for signs that the business is on a sustainably stronger path. That's the surest way the company can earn the stock price rally that's seen it outperform most of its rivals over the past year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809882671,"gmtCreate":1627358092693,"gmtModify":1633765747580,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What.does.it.mean","listText":"What.does.it.mean","text":"What.does.it.mean","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809882671","repostId":"2154964378","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148815195,"gmtCreate":1625966675617,"gmtModify":1633931338098,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148815195","repostId":"1113530069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809886207,"gmtCreate":1627358044109,"gmtModify":1631889248535,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"gogogo<a 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LTD(5DD.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809886207","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148507067,"gmtCreate":1625984326359,"gmtModify":1631885218901,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roblox","listText":"Roblox","text":"Roblox","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148507067","repostId":"2150463301","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809887055,"gmtCreate":1627358278277,"gmtModify":1633765745519,"author":{"id":"3586937406888157","authorId":"3586937406888157","name":"claire0215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ec84f369b7613e51135c8c6dd29252","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586937406888157","authorIdStr":"3586937406888157"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What is this?","listText":"What is this?","text":"What is 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