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LINFENG
2021-06-17
Hi
What lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote>
LINFENG
2021-06-17
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AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>
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See full story .\nGETTY IMAGES","content":"<p>Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品对股票有影响，但值得关注的是铂金。查看完整故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae56c9abdfe2e326972f59f852b6c04\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格经历了历史上最大、最快的暴跌之一——现货期货合约在短短25个交易日内下跌了670多美元，即40%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.</p><p><blockquote>试图从中找到意义是人类的天性，因为另一种选择是接受如此重大的价格变化只不过是随机波动。我们都不愿意接受我们的投资组合可能会遭受如此残酷的命运扭曲。</blockquote></p><p> One way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber to gold.One study found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.</p><p><blockquote>一些人发现木材下跌意义的一种方式是通过基于木材与黄金比率的市场时机指标。一项研究发现，当这一比率高于13周前的水平时，情况应该对美国股市有利。较低时，首选美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于木材最近的暴跌，该比率目前传达的信息对股市不利。（见下图。）为了帮助确定该消息的权重，我测试了1984年的比率——这是数据在FactSet上延伸的时间。从那以后的每一周，我都会计算这个比率是高于还是低于13周前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b4a71a21eea91205bffc083189f6a1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>下表报告了市场上涨的频率，作为木材-黄金比率13周变化是正还是负的函数。我使用Wilshire 5000的总回报指数作为市场基准。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87c08d2f35d4035d6679a53b43dad2d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"377\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，木材与黄金的比率对股市上涨的频率几乎没有影响。这表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷可能并不像看起来那么令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.</p><p><blockquote>当然，尽管当该比率的13周变化为负时，下降的可能性不大，但确实发生的下降可能会更加严重。下表报告了相关数据，讲述了与上表相似的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a25f2a5327104a15712a37d05c39479\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"265\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这次讨论并不是对木材-黄金比率潜在价值的详尽分析。可能还有其他方法来分割数据，以揭示数据对投资者有用的方式。然而，数据似乎表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷本身并不是一个令人震惊的巨大原因。</blockquote></p><p> None of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果都不能保证股市在未来几周内不会出现调整，甚至不会开始熊市。鉴于股市被高估的程度，任何时候都有可能发生这种情况。我的观点是，在我看来，木材与黄金比率的下降并不是预测这种低迷的额外原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold-platinum ratio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金铂比</b></blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that a peer-reviewed academic study has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，你可能想假定股市是无辜的。这是因为另一项基于大宗商品市场的比率，一项同行评审的学术研究发现，该比率在预测股市12个月回报方面有着出色的记录。另一个比率是黄金价格除以铂金价格。</blockquote></p><p> I most recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.</p><p><blockquote>我最近一次写这个比率是在二月份。尽管今天的这一比率远低于去年3月瀑布式下跌底部创下的多年高点，但仍高于长期平均水平。因此，尽管股市未来12个月的上涨潜力远不如一年前，但仍高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 08:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品对股票有影响，但值得关注的是铂金。查看完整故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae56c9abdfe2e326972f59f852b6c04\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格经历了历史上最大、最快的暴跌之一——现货期货合约在短短25个交易日内下跌了670多美元，即40%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.</p><p><blockquote>试图从中找到意义是人类的天性，因为另一种选择是接受如此重大的价格变化只不过是随机波动。我们都不愿意接受我们的投资组合可能会遭受如此残酷的命运扭曲。</blockquote></p><p> One way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber to gold.One study found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.</p><p><blockquote>一些人发现木材下跌意义的一种方式是通过基于木材与黄金比率的市场时机指标。一项研究发现，当这一比率高于13周前的水平时，情况应该对美国股市有利。较低时，首选美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于木材最近的暴跌，该比率目前传达的信息对股市不利。（见下图。）为了帮助确定该消息的权重，我测试了1984年的比率——这是数据在FactSet上延伸的时间。从那以后的每一周，我都会计算这个比率是高于还是低于13周前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b4a71a21eea91205bffc083189f6a1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>下表报告了市场上涨的频率，作为木材-黄金比率13周变化是正还是负的函数。我使用Wilshire 5000的总回报指数作为市场基准。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87c08d2f35d4035d6679a53b43dad2d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"377\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，木材与黄金的比率对股市上涨的频率几乎没有影响。这表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷可能并不像看起来那么令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.</p><p><blockquote>当然，尽管当该比率的13周变化为负时，下降的可能性不大，但确实发生的下降可能会更加严重。下表报告了相关数据，讲述了与上表相似的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a25f2a5327104a15712a37d05c39479\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"265\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这次讨论并不是对木材-黄金比率潜在价值的详尽分析。可能还有其他方法来分割数据，以揭示数据对投资者有用的方式。然而，数据似乎表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷本身并不是一个令人震惊的巨大原因。</blockquote></p><p> None of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果都不能保证股市在未来几周内不会出现调整，甚至不会开始熊市。鉴于股市被高估的程度，任何时候都有可能发生这种情况。我的观点是，在我看来，木材与黄金比率的下降并不是预测这种低迷的额外原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold-platinum ratio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金铂比</b></blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that a peer-reviewed academic study has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，你可能想假定股市是无辜的。这是因为另一项基于大宗商品市场的比率，一项同行评审的学术研究发现，该比率在预测股市12个月回报方面有着出色的记录。另一个比率是黄金价格除以铂金价格。</blockquote></p><p> I most recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.</p><p><blockquote>我最近一次写这个比率是在二月份。尽管今天的这一比率远低于去年3月瀑布式下跌底部创下的多年高点，但仍高于长期平均水平。因此，尽管股市未来12个月的上涨潜力远不如一年前，但仍高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-lumber-and-gold-prices-tell-us-about-the-stock-markets-next-move-11623811154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-lumber-and-gold-prices-tell-us-about-the-stock-markets-next-move-11623811154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144713396","content_text":"Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .\nGETTY IMAGES\nLumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.\nIt’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.\nOne way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber to gold.One study found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.\nNot surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.\n\nThe table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.\n\nNotice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.\nOf course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.\n\nTo be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.\nNone of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.\nGold-platinum ratio\nIn the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that a peer-reviewed academic study has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.\nI most recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161972553,"gmtCreate":1623903118972,"gmtModify":1634026082157,"author":{"id":"3585217603600010","authorId":"3585217603600010","name":"LINFENG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585217603600010","authorIdStr":"3585217603600010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161972553","repostId":"1157739738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157739738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623891796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157739738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157739738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.When I look at AMC’s cha","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li> <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li> <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试约45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下在GME下跌的过程中，搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近如何以类似的方式突破其价格。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续走强。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li> <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li> <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试约45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下在GME下跌的过程中，搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近如何以类似的方式突破其价格。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续走强。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157739738","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.\nImportant short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.\nGiven the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.\n\nBCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nOver the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.\nTechnical Analysis\nSource: CNBC(GameStop)\nConsider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.\nInterestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.\nSource: CNBC [AMC]\nWhen I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.\nSimilarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.This scenario offers ~60% downside.Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.\nGoogle Search Interest: The Momentum Story\nSource: Google Search Trends (GameStop)\nAs these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.\nSource: Google Search Trends [AMC]\nWhen you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.\nCross-Analysis\nWhen you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.\nSource: ValueMan\nWhen considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.\nSource: ValueMan\nAMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.\nWhile this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.\nMany have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.\nI think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.\nRisks\nThe risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.\nConclusion\nAfter writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":161975076,"gmtCreate":1623903131795,"gmtModify":1634026081812,"author":{"id":"3585217603600010","authorId":"3585217603600010","name":"LINFENG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585217603600010","idStr":"3585217603600010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161975076","repostId":"2144713396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144713396","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623889510,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144713396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144713396","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .\nGETTY IMAGES","content":"<p>Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品对股票有影响，但值得关注的是铂金。查看完整故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae56c9abdfe2e326972f59f852b6c04\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格经历了历史上最大、最快的暴跌之一——现货期货合约在短短25个交易日内下跌了670多美元，即40%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.</p><p><blockquote>试图从中找到意义是人类的天性，因为另一种选择是接受如此重大的价格变化只不过是随机波动。我们都不愿意接受我们的投资组合可能会遭受如此残酷的命运扭曲。</blockquote></p><p> One way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber to gold.One study found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.</p><p><blockquote>一些人发现木材下跌意义的一种方式是通过基于木材与黄金比率的市场时机指标。一项研究发现，当这一比率高于13周前的水平时，情况应该对美国股市有利。较低时，首选美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于木材最近的暴跌，该比率目前传达的信息对股市不利。（见下图。）为了帮助确定该消息的权重，我测试了1984年的比率——这是数据在FactSet上延伸的时间。从那以后的每一周，我都会计算这个比率是高于还是低于13周前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b4a71a21eea91205bffc083189f6a1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>下表报告了市场上涨的频率，作为木材-黄金比率13周变化是正还是负的函数。我使用Wilshire 5000的总回报指数作为市场基准。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87c08d2f35d4035d6679a53b43dad2d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"377\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，木材与黄金的比率对股市上涨的频率几乎没有影响。这表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷可能并不像看起来那么令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.</p><p><blockquote>当然，尽管当该比率的13周变化为负时，下降的可能性不大，但确实发生的下降可能会更加严重。下表报告了相关数据，讲述了与上表相似的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a25f2a5327104a15712a37d05c39479\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"265\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这次讨论并不是对木材-黄金比率潜在价值的详尽分析。可能还有其他方法来分割数据，以揭示数据对投资者有用的方式。然而，数据似乎表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷本身并不是一个令人震惊的巨大原因。</blockquote></p><p> None of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果都不能保证股市在未来几周内不会出现调整，甚至不会开始熊市。鉴于股市被高估的程度，任何时候都有可能发生这种情况。我的观点是，在我看来，木材与黄金比率的下降并不是预测这种低迷的额外原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold-platinum ratio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金铂比</b></blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that a peer-reviewed academic study has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，你可能想假定股市是无辜的。这是因为另一项基于大宗商品市场的比率，一项同行评审的学术研究发现，该比率在预测股市12个月回报方面有着出色的记录。另一个比率是黄金价格除以铂金价格。</blockquote></p><p> I most recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.</p><p><blockquote>我最近一次写这个比率是在二月份。尽管今天的这一比率远低于去年3月瀑布式下跌底部创下的多年高点，但仍高于长期平均水平。因此，尽管股市未来12个月的上涨潜力远不如一年前，但仍高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 08:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品对股票有影响，但值得关注的是铂金。查看完整故事。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae56c9abdfe2e326972f59f852b6c04\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.</p><p><blockquote>木材价格经历了历史上最大、最快的暴跌之一——现货期货合约在短短25个交易日内下跌了670多美元，即40%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.</p><p><blockquote>试图从中找到意义是人类的天性，因为另一种选择是接受如此重大的价格变化只不过是随机波动。我们都不愿意接受我们的投资组合可能会遭受如此残酷的命运扭曲。</blockquote></p><p> One way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber to gold.One study found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.</p><p><blockquote>一些人发现木材下跌意义的一种方式是通过基于木材与黄金比率的市场时机指标。一项研究发现，当这一比率高于13周前的水平时，情况应该对美国股市有利。较低时，首选美国国债。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于木材最近的暴跌，该比率目前传达的信息对股市不利。（见下图。）为了帮助确定该消息的权重，我测试了1984年的比率——这是数据在FactSet上延伸的时间。从那以后的每一周，我都会计算这个比率是高于还是低于13周前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b4a71a21eea91205bffc083189f6a1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.</p><p><blockquote>下表报告了市场上涨的频率，作为木材-黄金比率13周变化是正还是负的函数。我使用Wilshire 5000的总回报指数作为市场基准。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87c08d2f35d4035d6679a53b43dad2d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"377\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Notice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，木材与黄金的比率对股市上涨的频率几乎没有影响。这表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷可能并不像看起来那么令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.</p><p><blockquote>当然，尽管当该比率的13周变化为负时，下降的可能性不大，但确实发生的下降可能会更加严重。下表报告了相关数据，讲述了与上表相似的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a25f2a5327104a15712a37d05c39479\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"265\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这次讨论并不是对木材-黄金比率潜在价值的详尽分析。可能还有其他方法来分割数据，以揭示数据对投资者有用的方式。然而，数据似乎表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷本身并不是一个令人震惊的巨大原因。</blockquote></p><p> None of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果都不能保证股市在未来几周内不会出现调整，甚至不会开始熊市。鉴于股市被高估的程度，任何时候都有可能发生这种情况。我的观点是，在我看来，木材与黄金比率的下降并不是预测这种低迷的额外原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Gold-platinum ratio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金铂比</b></blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that a peer-reviewed academic study has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，你可能想假定股市是无辜的。这是因为另一项基于大宗商品市场的比率，一项同行评审的学术研究发现，该比率在预测股市12个月回报方面有着出色的记录。另一个比率是黄金价格除以铂金价格。</blockquote></p><p> I most recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.</p><p><blockquote>我最近一次写这个比率是在二月份。尽管今天的这一比率远低于去年3月瀑布式下跌底部创下的多年高点，但仍高于长期平均水平。因此，尽管股市未来12个月的上涨潜力远不如一年前，但仍高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-lumber-and-gold-prices-tell-us-about-the-stock-markets-next-move-11623811154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-lumber-and-gold-prices-tell-us-about-the-stock-markets-next-move-11623811154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144713396","content_text":"Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .\nGETTY IMAGES\nLumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.\nIt’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.\nOne way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber to gold.One study found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.\nNot surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.\n\nThe table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.\n\nNotice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.\nOf course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.\n\nTo be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.\nNone of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.\nGold-platinum ratio\nIn the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that a peer-reviewed academic study has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.\nI most recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161972553,"gmtCreate":1623903118972,"gmtModify":1634026082157,"author":{"id":"3585217603600010","authorId":"3585217603600010","name":"LINFENG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585217603600010","idStr":"3585217603600010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161972553","repostId":"1157739738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157739738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623891796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157739738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 09:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157739738","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.When I look at AMC’s cha","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li> <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li> <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试约45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下在GME下跌的过程中，搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近如何以类似的方式突破其价格。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续走强。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Take Profits<blockquote>AMC：获利了结</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.</li> <li>Important short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.</li> <li>Given the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd621cec481d173c0f0d3b9be49ed335\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1241\"><span>BCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在成为第二波“模因”或动量股的领头羊后，AMC的举动与游戏驿站一月份的举动类似，表明可能会出现大幅下跌。</li><li>技术面、动量和搜索兴趣等重要短期指标开始形成类似于1月下旬GME的看跌模式。</li><li>鉴于7日和50日移动平均线之间的巨大差距，风险/回报似乎建议获利了结，启动对冲或空头/看跌头寸。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BCFC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>在过去两周左右的时间里，AMC（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）的股价经历了历史性的上涨。部分由于空头兴趣水平上升、期权的使用以及AMC采取的行动，股价在上个月上涨了约485%。今年，AMC上涨了约763.5%，至每股约55美元，市值为$28.4 B，尽管这一年对公司及其长期业务前景来说是根本性的破坏性。在今年早些时候游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME和其他“reddit”推动的股票的空头和伽马挤压中上涨后，AMC再次获得了动力，并以其表现从该集团中脱颖而出。这篇文章将比较GME在2月份惨败中的领导地位与AMC目前的领导地位，并将评估推动这些举措的催化剂及其寿命。鉴于这种股票价格走势的性质，不断重新考虑你的投资论点并重新评估是什么推动了价格走势是很重要的。在我看来，在这些情况下，技术分析占据了主导地位，我将指出许多因素表明现在可能是获利了结或在预期抛售的情况下建仓的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d813be28f7a34550ff50814b55a68e45\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>Source: CNBC(GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.</p><p><blockquote>想想今年早些时候GME的上涨，当时它在一群动量或“模因”股票中处于领先地位。图表上顶部的红色带表示7日移动平均线，蓝色表示50日移动平均线，绿色表示200日移动平均线。从图表中可以看出，突破7日移动平均线之后总是会出现两个方向的大幅波动。在这些剧烈波动的情况下，7日移动平均线似乎是价格走势最有用的指标。正如您在图表中看到的，在2月、3月和6月，当GME价格突破7日移动平均线时，随之而来的是大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，50日移动平均线（蓝线）似乎在这一上升趋势中提供了一定程度的一致支撑，为走势中的几次反弹提供了一定程度的支撑。随着这种上升趋势的持续，50天和7天之间的差距已经缩小，从而在阻力和支撑位方面提供了更小的波动性和更大的可预测性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a18cedd2df4fa0530b6c94859b3021\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"><span>Source: CNBC [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.</p><p><blockquote>当我看AMC的图表时，它让我想起了2021年2月的GME。上涨迅速而明显（约23天内上涨约350%），类似于GME 2月份的上涨（约21天内上涨约1,525%）。两者都导致短期内7日移动平均线和50日移动平均线之间存在较大差异，因此在上行和下行方面都提供了较高的波动潜力。从GME的图表中可以看出，在前一周触及约350美元后，它最终测试了约45-50美元附近的50日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.<i>This scenario offers ~60% downside.</i>Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.</p><p><blockquote>与GME类似，AMC在此次上涨后也在7日均线附近盘整，并使其能够赶上价格走势。如果AMC无法突破62.55美元并呈现新的动能，则有双重见顶的风险，向下突破7日均线，并重新测试20美元附近的50日均线。<i>这种情况会带来约60%的负面影响。</i>尽管我通常不会通过观察时间段来评估未来潜在的价格走势，但我认为重要的是要注意两种走势在时间段方面的相似性，并对GME走势后端的情况保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Google Search Interest: The Momentum Story</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谷歌搜索兴趣：动量故事</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dda9563f56dc1df868212408e969418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"181\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends (GameStop)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势（游戏驿站）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些举措在很大程度上基于势头，谷歌搜索兴趣可能值得考虑。从图表中可以看出，GME的搜索兴趣在1月底2月初迅速上升和下降，与其股票表现非常一致。它的利息峰值几乎与价格峰值完全一致，利息下降与价格下降完全一致。同样，在测试约45美元左右的50日移动平均线后，其利息反弹跟随价格反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fba476b389598252d5156f43d0962f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\"><span>Source: Google Search Trends [AMC]</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：谷歌搜索趋势[AMC]</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>当您查看AMC的谷歌搜索兴趣时，您还可以看到它在短时间内急剧飙升，然后随后急剧下降。由于搜索兴趣和交易量是GME 2月份下跌的领先指标，因此该图表可能表明如果无法反弹，可能会出现潜在的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cross-Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交叉分析</b></blockquote></p><p> When you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.</p><p><blockquote>当你将股票价格、搜索兴趣和交易量相互绘制图表时，它们之间的关系都会变得更加清晰，尽管在测量大量数字（如交易量与兴趣）时存在缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c144385e0530f21df9f305b4eef2f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑GME时，图表显示变量具有相关性，尤其是在剧烈波动的上下波动中。虽然他们可能会在波动相对较小的时候偏离，但当事情以波动的方式发展时，他们会保持一种关系。在股价上涨后，搜索兴趣和交易量似乎直接引领或下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c1aab35454d89a6f58f78341bf918b\" tg-width=\"592\" tg-height=\"375\"><span>Source: ValueMan</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ValueMan</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的图表实际上更清楚地展示了这些变量之间的关系和相关性。考虑一下在GME下跌的过程中，搜索兴趣和交易量实际上是如何先于价格的，以及AMC的搜索兴趣最近如何以类似的方式突破其价格。</blockquote></p><p> While this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种分析方法并不完美，但重要的是要记住你的头寸的催化剂是什么，并不断分析它们在市场中的影响持续时间和寿命。与所有短期波动一样，基本面很少提供太多指示或近期价格走势。通常，技术面、成交量和动量提供了对未来价格走势最准确的预测，因此对分析最有用。</blockquote></p><p> Many have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.</p><p><blockquote>许多人为推动这一举措提供了催化剂，包括重新开放的叙述、伽马或轧空，或者股票发行带来的新资本涌入。底线是所有这些催化剂的有效寿命都依赖于动量。即使它们是随着时间的推移而发生的催化剂，像这样的价格大幅上涨也会缩短催化剂每日动量的寿命，直到它们重新测试长期平均值并通过增加交易量建立稳定性。</blockquote></p><p> I think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.</p><p><blockquote>我认为谨慎的做法是在这里获利了结，或者至少暂时获利了结超过50%，对于那些感兴趣的人来说，在预期大幅下跌的情况下建仓似乎是明智的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.</p><p><blockquote>AMC看跌论点的风险包括新的动能和7日移动平均线上方的持续走强。正如我之前所阐述的，这似乎是这些情况下短期价格变动的最关键指标，并且一直是上行和下行剧烈波动的指标。如果AMC保持在该平均线之上并缩小7日与20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，它可能会保持这一较高的成交量和价格水平，并在触及新高之前进行盘整。我从根本上相信，虽然这里有催化剂在起作用，但当在这么短的时间内出现如此戏剧性的走势时，动量和技术因素就会接管决定未来的价格走势。因此，如果技术面崩溃，应该会有明显的下行空间。然而，如果技术面继续看涨，未来可能会有更多上涨空间。然而，AMC看起来与GME 2月份的走势类似，看跌双顶形态似乎正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> Conclusion</p><p><blockquote>结论</blockquote></p><p></p><p> After writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.</p><p><blockquote>在1月份写了一篇关于AMC的看涨文章后，我们现在看跌该股，认识到关键动量指标的恶化以及与GME 2月份上涨和回落的技术相似性。在这样的事件中，催化剂会变得不稳定，评估投资论文中要点的寿命非常重要。当股价大幅上涨时，通常会有一段获利了结的时间，市场会重新定价催化剂的价值。如果只是动力作为催化剂，那么重新定价往往是鲜明且不稳定的。如果是更长期的催化剂，获利了结可以更加温和。虽然推动AMC崛起的催化剂可能有很多，但毫无疑问，有一个催化剂比所有催化剂都更重要，那就是动量故事。根据我们对GME的研究，考虑到20日和50日移动平均线之间的差距，7日移动平均线似乎是大幅下跌之前值得关注的价格水平。随着谷歌搜索趋势、交易量和价格（双顶模式）似乎表明情况正在崩溃，至少与2月份的GME相似。人们应该考虑在这里获利了结，如果倾向于站在另一边，现在就考虑相应地建仓。虽然期权费很高，但我认为仍然有能力用一些短期期权（2周-4周）发起小仓位或对冲。如果价格走势向下，走势将会剧烈，因为下一个支撑位比当前价格低40美元。虽然我认为做空在这里可能是有意义的，而且借贷成本似乎没有那么高，因为做空股票的百分比不是GME的水平，但那里固有的风险更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435124-amc-stock-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157739738","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter emerging as the leader in the second wave of \"meme\" or momentum stocks, AMC's move resembles that of GameStop in January, indicating the potential for stark downside.\nImportant short-term indicators such as technicals, momentum, and search interest are beginning to form a bearish pattern similar to GME in late January.\nGiven the large gap between the 7 and 50-day moving average, the risk/reward seems to suggest taking profits, initiating a hedge or short/put position.\n\nBCFC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nOver the past two weeks or so, AMC(NYSE:AMC)has undergone a historic rise in its stock price. Due in part to elevated levels of short interest, the use of options, and actions taken by AMC, the equities price has risen ~485% in the last month. For the year, AMC has risen by ~763.5% to a price of ~$55 a share and a market cap of $28.4B, despite a fundamentally destructive year to the company and its long-term business prospects. After rising earlier this year amongst the short and gamma squeeze of GameStop(NYSE:GMEand other “reddit” fueled equities, AMC has gained momentum again and has separated itself from the group with its performance. This piece will compare GME’s leadership in the February fiasco with AMC’s current leadership and will evaluate the catalysts driving the moves and their lifespans. Given the nature of this equities price action, it is important to consistently reconsider your investment thesis and re-evaluate what is driving price action. In my opinion, technical analysis takes over in these scenarios, and I will point to many factors that indicate this might be the time to take profit or initiate a position in anticipation of a sell-off.\nTechnical Analysis\nSource: CNBC(GameStop)\nConsider the run-up in GME earlier this year when it had leadership amongst the pack of momentum or “meme” stocks. The top red band on the chart indicates the 7-day moving average, while the blue indicates the 50-day moving average and the green the 200-day moving average. As you can see from the chart, breakthroughs of the 7-day moving average are consistently followed by large moves in both directions. It seems, with these drastically volatile moves, the 7-day moving average is the most useful indicator for price action. As you can see in the chart, in February, March, and June, when GME’s price broke through the 7-day moving average, stark downside followed.\nInterestingly enough, the 50-day moving average (blue line) has seemed to provide some level of consistent support in this upward trend, providing a level of support for a couple bounces along the move. And as this upward trend has continued, the gap between the 50-day and the 7-day has contracted, thus providing less volatility and greater predictability in terms of levels of resistance and support.\nSource: CNBC [AMC]\nWhen I look at AMC’s chart, it reminds me of GME’s in February of 2021. The upward move has been quick and stark (~350% in ~23 days) similar to GME’s move in February (~1,525% in ~21 days). Both led to a large dispersion between the 7-day and 50-day moving averages in the short term and, thus, offered elevated potential for volatility both in terms of the upside and downside. As you can see from GME’s chart, it eventually tested the 50-day moving average around ~$45-50 after touching ~$350 the week prior.\nSimilarly to GME, AMC has also now consolidated around its 7-day average after this run-up and allowed it to catch up to the price action. If AMC is unable to break through $62.55 and present new momentum, it is at risk of double topping, breaking through its 7-day average on the downside and retesting the 50-day around $20.This scenario offers ~60% downside.Although I don’t usual look at time periods in an effort to evaluate potential future price action, I think it is important to note the similarity in terms of the time period of both moves and stay wary about what followed on the back end of GME’s move.\nGoogle Search Interest: The Momentum Story\nSource: Google Search Trends (GameStop)\nAs these moves are very much based upon momentum, Google search interest may be of value to consider. As you can see from the chart, GME’s search interest rose and fell quickly in late Jan. early Feb., pretty much in line with its equities performance. Its peak in interest pretty much aligned exactly with its peak in price, and its fall in interest aligned exactly with its fall in price. Similarly, its rebound in interest followed its rebound in price after testing the 50-day moving average around ~$45.\nSource: Google Search Trends [AMC]\nWhen you look at AMC’s Google Search Interest, you can also see its dramatic spike in a short period of time and then a subsequent stark decline. As search interest and volume were leading indicators for GME's move downward back in February, this chart might indicate a potential sell-off if it is not able to rebound.\nCross-Analysis\nWhen you chart stock price, search interest, and volume over each other, the relationship between them all becomes clearer, despite the imperfections in measuring a large number like volume to interest.\nSource: ValueMan\nWhen considering GME, the chart demonstrates that the variables have a correlation, especially in the stark and volatile moves upward and downward. While they may stray during times of relative muted volatility, they retain a relationship when things are moving in a volatile nature. Search interest and volume seemingly led or fell directly in line with the stock price following the move upward.\nSource: ValueMan\nAMC’s chart actually demonstrates the relationship and correlation between these variables more clearly. Consider how search interest and volume actually preceded price in GME’s move down and how AMC’s search interest recently broke through its price in a similar manner.\nWhile this method of analysis is not perfect, it is important to remember what the catalysts for your positions are and constantly analyze the duration of their impact and lifespan in the marketplace. As with all short-term volatile moves, fundamentals rarely provide too much of an indication or near term price action. Often, technicals, volume, and momentum provide the most accurate forecasts of future price action and, thus, are the most useful to analyze.\nMany have offered catalysts for what has driven this move, ranging from the re-opening narrative, a gamma or short squeeze, or the influx of new capital from shares issuances. The bottom line is all these catalysts depend upon momentum for their effective lifespan. Even if they are catalysts that will take place over time, dramatic price appreciation like this shortens the lifespan of the catalysts' daily momentum until they retest the longer term averages and establishes stability with heightened volume.\nI think it would be prudent to take profit here or at least take more than 50% off the table for the time being, and for those interested, a position in anticipation of a stark downside seems sensible.\nRisks\nThe risks to the bearish thesis on AMC involve renewed momentum and continued strength above the 7-day moving average. As I elaborated on earlier, that seems to be the most critical indicator of short-term price movement in these scenarios and consistently has been an indicator of a dramatic move to come both on the upside and downside. If AMC holds above this average and tightens the gap between the 7-day and the 20 and 50-day moving averages, it could potentially hold this heightened volume and price level and consolidate before making a move to new highs. I fundamentally believe that, while there are catalysts here at play, when a move is this dramatic in this short of a time frame momentum and technicals take over in determining future price action. And, thus, if the technicals break down, there should be stark downside. However, if the technicals continue to stay bullish, there may be more upside ahead. AMC looks to similar, however, to GME’s February move, and the bearish double top pattern seems to be forming.\nConclusion\nAfter writing a bullish article on AMC in January, we are now bearish on the equity, recognizing the deterioration of key momentum indicators and the technical similarity to the GME’s rise and fall back in February. In events like this, the catalysts get choppy, and it’s important to evaluate the lifespan of the main points to in your investment thesis. When things rise dramatically, there is often a time off profit taken in which the market re-prices just how valuable catalysts are. If it’s just momentum as a catalyst, the re-pricing is often stark and volatile. If it is a more long-term catalyst, the profit taking can be more muted. While there may be many catalysts driving AMC’s rise, there is without doubt one that takes precedent over them all, and that is the momentum story. Given our examination of GME, it seems the 7-day moving average is the price level to look at before dramatic downside, given the gap between the 20 and 50 day moving average. As Google search trends, volume, and price (double top pattern) seem to indicate things are breaking down and are similar at least to GME in February. One should consider taking profits here, and if inclined to take the other side, consider initiating a position accordingly now. While option premiums are high, I think there is still an ability to initiate a small position or a hedge with some short-term options (2 weeks-4 weeks). If price action were to head to the downside, the move would be drastic as the next level of support is $40 lower than the current price. While I think shorting could make sense here, and the cost to borrow doesn’t seem that high as the percentage of shares short is not GME’s level, there is inherently more risk there.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
