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WinSum
2021-12-19
多谢分享
创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ,投资者正在“逃离”市场
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2021-12-18
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德银:美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退
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$丰益国际(F34.SI)$
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耐人寻味
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$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$
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干一杯
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2021-11-19
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盘前:欧美疫情重来?道指期货跌200点,中概股反弹
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2021-11-15
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2021-11-13
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2021-11-12
通货膨胀 [回头]
美国将会“日本化”?前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储
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2021-11-11
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2021-11-09
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"多谢分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699718048","repostId":"1109268210","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109268210","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639884741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109268210?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-19 11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ,投资者正在“逃离”市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109268210","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在截至12月15日的一周内,全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出。","content":"<p>作者:韩旭阳</p>\n<p>在截至12月15日的一周内,全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出,是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。</p>\n<p>部分是由于通胀飙升的压力,使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向,而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。</p>\n<p>债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出</p>\n<p>数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示,在这一周,投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金,这是自2020年4月8日以来最大的周净抛售规模。</p>\n<p>根据美国银行的Michael Hartnett编制的最新EPFR数据,上周也出现了自2020年7月以来规模最大的被视为“安全区”的美国国债的资金流入,达到36亿美元;同时,IG债券也出现了自今年3月以来的最大规模资金流出,达到64亿美元;HY&EM债券出现了自去年4月以来的最大规模的资金流出,达到29亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/972878dfd3eaffb1b73c951adcd4659e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据还显示,全球政府债券基金在连续七周流入后净流出8.09亿美元,但通胀保护基金净流入13.2亿美元,较前一周增加39%。</p>\n<p><b>股票基金也出现了类似的趋势。</b></p>\n<p>尽管在前几周,受万亿刺激措施的推动,大量资金进入了股票基金,规模达到了前所未有的高峰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95cd302e00ba93302ae605efc519da90\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>但随着股市进入长期动荡时期,并伴随着剧烈的下跌,美联储再次启动了加息周期,使得这种大规模的资金流入趋势终于开始“退潮”。</b></p>\n<p>数据显示,在上一周,全球股票基金流出规模为131.4亿美元,而前一周的净流入量为34.3亿美元。</p>\n<p>最重要的是,上周只做多的发达市场股票基金也出现了自2020年4月以来最大的资金流出,流出规模达到260亿美元,这是一个明显的信号,表明市场情绪可能已经达到顶峰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117ccb3f28de1456b8cea95cf60d92b7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在细分板块中,科技资金流入19.1亿美元,而前一周则为净流出;自今年2月以来,科技资金曾达到过44亿美元规模的净流入。自去年12月以来,消费股的最大净流入量为25亿美元。</p>\n<p>医疗保健和材料基金流入超过了4亿美元,但公用事业基金净流出达5.88亿美元。</p>\n<p>高盛对流动数据的进一步细分发现,由于对美国专用产品的需求激增,在截至12月15日的一周内,所有全球基金的净流动出现逆转趋势。</p>\n<p>不包括美国专用产品的全球股票流入量为负值,新兴市场基准产品的抛售速度加快,而西欧股票的流出正在放缓。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0773d0c7a313bc222c7df83b7e233b5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>路透对24070只新兴市场基金的分析显示,新兴市场的债券基金流出44.9亿美元,为2020年3月25日以来最大,而股票基金净流出达到15.1亿美元。</p>\n<p>货币市场基金也出现了净流出:在连续八周净流入后,全球货币市场基金在这一周净流出达到了204.6亿美元;但它在全球股市总市值中所占比例仍相对较小。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89144ff44308afe14c6d7dacfb73a54\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0b5d9eb8e83b71ccc21a13623d7322\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>在商品基金中,贵金属基金净流出4.02亿美元,为连续第二周净流出。能源基金也出现了9600万美元的净流出,此前出现连续两周的净流入。</p>\n<p>货币政策转向</p>\n<p>这是在通胀压力下,市场对各国央行进行货币政策转向作出的反应。</p>\n<p>最新数据显示,美国11月CPI同比上涨6.8%,为1982年6月以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>美东时间12月15日周三,美联储在政策会议后宣布,将加快Taper的速度,每月减少购买200亿美元的美国国债和100亿美元的机构住房抵押贷款支持证券(MBS),并暗示明年将加息三次。</p>\n<p>与此同时,欧洲央行也削减了购债步伐,宣布下个季度放缓紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP),在明年3月底彻底结束PEPP下的净债券购买。</p>\n<p>而在通胀压力下,英国央行选择升息,将基准利率上调15个基点至0.25%,同时维持购债规模不变。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ,投资者正在“逃离”市场</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n创纪录的资金流入开始“退潮” ,投资者正在“逃离”市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-19 11:32 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:韩旭阳\n在截至12月15日的一周内,全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出,是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。\n部分是由于通胀飙升的压力,使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向,而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。\n债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出\n数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示,在这一周,投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金,这是自...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f61931a0d39e3cccfd6e5e3b0ef5e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647634","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109268210","content_text":"作者:韩旭阳\n在截至12月15日的一周内,全球债券基金出现巨额资金流出,是自2020年4月上旬以来的规模最大的一次。\n部分是由于通胀飙升的压力,使得全球主要央行在本周的主要政策会议上改变了原来的货币政策方向,而投资者纷纷对此做出了反应。\n债券基金、股票基金均出现大规模资金流出\n数据提供商Refinitiv Lipper的数据显示,在这一周,投资者共计抛售了69.1亿美元的全球债券基金,这是自2020年4月8日以来最大的周净抛售规模。\n根据美国银行的Michael Hartnett编制的最新EPFR数据,上周也出现了自2020年7月以来规模最大的被视为“安全区”的美国国债的资金流入,达到36亿美元;同时,IG债券也出现了自今年3月以来的最大规模资金流出,达到64亿美元;HY&EM债券出现了自去年4月以来的最大规模的资金流出,达到29亿美元。\n\n数据还显示,全球政府债券基金在连续七周流入后净流出8.09亿美元,但通胀保护基金净流入13.2亿美元,较前一周增加39%。\n股票基金也出现了类似的趋势。\n尽管在前几周,受万亿刺激措施的推动,大量资金进入了股票基金,规模达到了前所未有的高峰。\n\n但随着股市进入长期动荡时期,并伴随着剧烈的下跌,美联储再次启动了加息周期,使得这种大规模的资金流入趋势终于开始“退潮”。\n数据显示,在上一周,全球股票基金流出规模为131.4亿美元,而前一周的净流入量为34.3亿美元。\n最重要的是,上周只做多的发达市场股票基金也出现了自2020年4月以来最大的资金流出,流出规模达到260亿美元,这是一个明显的信号,表明市场情绪可能已经达到顶峰。\n\n在细分板块中,科技资金流入19.1亿美元,而前一周则为净流出;自今年2月以来,科技资金曾达到过44亿美元规模的净流入。自去年12月以来,消费股的最大净流入量为25亿美元。\n医疗保健和材料基金流入超过了4亿美元,但公用事业基金净流出达5.88亿美元。\n高盛对流动数据的进一步细分发现,由于对美国专用产品的需求激增,在截至12月15日的一周内,所有全球基金的净流动出现逆转趋势。\n不包括美国专用产品的全球股票流入量为负值,新兴市场基准产品的抛售速度加快,而西欧股票的流出正在放缓。\n\n路透对24070只新兴市场基金的分析显示,新兴市场的债券基金流出44.9亿美元,为2020年3月25日以来最大,而股票基金净流出达到15.1亿美元。\n货币市场基金也出现了净流出:在连续八周净流入后,全球货币市场基金在这一周净流出达到了204.6亿美元;但它在全球股市总市值中所占比例仍相对较小。\n\n\n在商品基金中,贵金属基金净流出4.02亿美元,为连续第二周净流出。能源基金也出现了9600万美元的净流出,此前出现连续两周的净流入。\n货币政策转向\n这是在通胀压力下,市场对各国央行进行货币政策转向作出的反应。\n最新数据显示,美国11月CPI同比上涨6.8%,为1982年6月以来的最高水平。\n美东时间12月15日周三,美联储在政策会议后宣布,将加快Taper的速度,每月减少购买200亿美元的美国国债和100亿美元的机构住房抵押贷款支持证券(MBS),并暗示明年将加息三次。\n与此同时,欧洲央行也削减了购债步伐,宣布下个季度放缓紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP),在明年3月底彻底结束PEPP下的净债券购买。\n而在通胀压力下,英国央行选择升息,将基准利率上调15个基点至0.25%,同时维持购债规模不变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699867283,"gmtCreate":1639782916514,"gmtModify":1639782916935,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699867283","repostId":"2192597888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2192597888","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639746069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2192597888?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 21:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"德银:美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2192597888","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国银行绘制的一张图表显示,美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”(这里指结束宽松的货币政策),市场都会崩溃,并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候,经济往往已经","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>绘制的一张图表显示,美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”(这里指结束宽松的货币政策),市场都会崩溃,并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候,经济往往已经陷入了衰退。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bb37445a1cdae8f50952b817bd784c3\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>那么问题来了,本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>的吉姆•里德(Jim Reid)表示,<b>美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。</b></p>\n<p>在11月份的利率决议上,美联储宣布加快缩减购债规模,实际上也在为本周期中的第一次加息铺平道路。目前市场上普遍预测美联储将在3月加息,但里德认为加息时间在6月,并将基于这一假设预测本轮经济衰退的起止时间。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>的数据显示,在美联储自1955年以来的13个独立加息周期中,从宣布加息当天开始计算,经济衰退平均会在36-42个月后出现,其中中位数和平均水平为首次加息后的37个月和42个月。</p>\n<p>以史为鉴,本轮经济衰退出现的时间可能在2025年7月或12月。在此前的经济衰退周期中,经济衰退最快在加息过后的11个月出现,也就是说本轮经济衰退最早有可能在2023年5月发生。</p>\n<p>从美债收益率曲线来看,首次加息过后,美国2年期和10年期国债收益率曲线几乎都会趋平,在加息后的一年内平均利差为80个基点。假设从现在到明年6月收益率曲线都是平坦的,鉴于美国2年期和10年期国债收益率利差目前已低于80个基点,2022年6月的首次加息可能会使收益率曲线在2023年6月出现倒挂。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6ce8bdb3b5842534a919795f00719b\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>根据上图,平均来说,经济衰退会在收益率曲线倒挂后的第18个月发生,由此可以推算出本轮经济将在2024年12月左右开始衰退。</p>\n<p>在新冠疫情爆发之前,经济衰退最快在曲线倒挂后的9个月发生,以此最快速度推测,经济衰退将在2023年3月发生。</p>\n<p>尽管上述猜测只是根据过往历史进行的,但也提供了一个大致的框架。</p>\n<p>众所周知,每一次经济衰退周期都有不同之处。许多人认为,在此次周期中,美联储已经落后于市场,导致如今我们可能将面临一个更激进的紧缩周期。</p>\n<p>20世纪60年代中期,美联储就犯过同样的错误。当时美联储维持过于宽松的货币政策,将经济衰退推迟到了1969年末,但最终通胀在1970年失控,随后的能源冲击更是火上浇油。</p>\n<p>就连美联储超级鸽派前明尼阿波利斯联储主席——赫拉科塔都在反对这种放纵通胀而维持经济增长的政策。</p>\n<p>历史表明,在其他条件相同的情况下,美国在2024年或2025年之间出现经济衰退是一种比较现实的假设,衰退不可避免,但也有望更早结束。</p>\n<p>德意志央行的最新市场调查显示,64%的受访者认为经济衰退将在2024年发生;31%的受访者认为是2024年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aecdec87eec04e9b590c674ed64271a\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>市场似乎也普遍认同上述调查中大多数人的观点。由下图可见,交易员们正在消化4y/1y-2y/1y远期掉期曲线倒挂的预期,<b>这意味着2025年的美联储联邦基金利率将低于2023年,表明在此期间的某个时间点,美联储将开启下一个宽松周期。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12f0667f911532e2a56e514a89752e3b\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>德银:美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n德银:美联储或让美国在2024年陷入经济衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-17 21:01 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行绘制的一张图表显示,美联储的每一个紧缩周期都以危机告终。几乎每一次美联储撤走“潘趣酒碗”(这里指结束宽松的货币政策),市场都会崩溃,并且当美联储意识到紧缩的货币政策是个错误的时候,经济往往已经陷入了衰退。\n\n那么问题来了,本轮紧缩周期何时开始呢?德意志银行的吉姆•里德(Jim Reid)表示,美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。\n在11月份的利率决议上,美联储宣布加快缩减购债...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=87546&type=news\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Reid)表示,美联储的政策决定将影响到下一次经济衰退开始的时间。\n在11月份的利率决议上,美联储宣布加快缩减购债规模,实际上也在为本周期中的第一次加息铺平道路。目前市场上普遍预测美联储将在3月加息,但里德认为加息时间在6月,并将基于这一假设预测本轮经济衰退的起止时间。\n德意志银行的数据显示,在美联储自1955年以来的13个独立加息周期中,从宣布加息当天开始计算,经济衰退平均会在36-42个月后出现,其中中位数和平均水平为首次加息后的37个月和42个月。\n以史为鉴,本轮经济衰退出现的时间可能在2025年7月或12月。在此前的经济衰退周期中,经济衰退最快在加息过后的11个月出现,也就是说本轮经济衰退最早有可能在2023年5月发生。\n从美债收益率曲线来看,首次加息过后,美国2年期和10年期国债收益率曲线几乎都会趋平,在加息后的一年内平均利差为80个基点。假设从现在到明年6月收益率曲线都是平坦的,鉴于美国2年期和10年期国债收益率利差目前已低于80个基点,2022年6月的首次加息可能会使收益率曲线在2023年6月出现倒挂。\n\n根据上图,平均来说,经济衰退会在收益率曲线倒挂后的第18个月发生,由此可以推算出本轮经济将在2024年12月左右开始衰退。\n在新冠疫情爆发之前,经济衰退最快在曲线倒挂后的9个月发生,以此最快速度推测,经济衰退将在2023年3月发生。\n尽管上述猜测只是根据过往历史进行的,但也提供了一个大致的框架。\n众所周知,每一次经济衰退周期都有不同之处。许多人认为,在此次周期中,美联储已经落后于市场,导致如今我们可能将面临一个更激进的紧缩周期。\n20世纪60年代中期,美联储就犯过同样的错误。当时美联储维持过于宽松的货币政策,将经济衰退推迟到了1969年末,但最终通胀在1970年失控,随后的能源冲击更是火上浇油。\n就连美联储超级鸽派前明尼阿波利斯联储主席——赫拉科塔都在反对这种放纵通胀而维持经济增长的政策。\n历史表明,在其他条件相同的情况下,美国在2024年或2025年之间出现经济衰退是一种比较现实的假设,衰退不可避免,但也有望更早结束。\n德意志央行的最新市场调查显示,64%的受访者认为经济衰退将在2024年发生;31%的受访者认为是2024年。\n\n市场似乎也普遍认同上述调查中大多数人的观点。由下图可见,交易员们正在消化4y/1y-2y/1y远期掉期曲线倒挂的预期,这意味着2025年的美联储联邦基金利率将低于2023年,表明在此期间的某个时间点,美联储将开启下一个宽松周期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699020673,"gmtCreate":1639725049060,"gmtModify":1639725049258,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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20:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前:欧美疫情重来?道指期货跌200点,中概股反弹","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120958755","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"欧洲疫情再度恶化,拖累周期性股票,而科技股相对风险较低。","content":"<p>11月19日(周五),美股三大指数期货涨跌不一,纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化,拖累周期性股票,而科技股相对风险较低。</p>\n<p>奥地利今日直接宣布下周一(22日)起将实施全国封锁,并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌,此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施,而非封国。</p>\n<p>而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高,首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例,法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。</p>\n<p>目前,美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁,但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料,截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分,过去24小时里,美国新增确诊病例110269例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e5d2824c8eb166acffd566bee8c301\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>【<b>中概股】</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期,周四大跌超11%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果,京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股,二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%, 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度,新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元,同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元,而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>盘前涨2.36%,第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元,同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨1.33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨1.05%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨2.33%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元),逊于公司自身预期;不按美国公认会计准则计,净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元),环比扩大。</p>\n<p>【<b>重要美股】</b></p>\n<p>“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive Inc</a>涨超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>跌超1%。而老“王者”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前微涨0.57%。</p>\n<p>美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬,Hexo涨6%,Tilray涨4.95%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>涨3%,Sundial Grower涨2.12%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前涨1.51%,据报道,Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针,目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>盘前涨超4%,季度业绩超华尔街预期,小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期,但没有上调盈利预期。</p>\n<p>在线奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch Ltd</a>盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后,Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示,公司当季营收为5.83亿美元,低于市场预期,上年同期为4.38亿美元;税后利润7.69亿美元,上年同期亏损5.37亿美元;经调整后每股亏损0.14美元,上年同期亏损0.17美元。</p>\n<p>【<b>大宗商品】</b></p>\n<p>国际油价大跌。截至发稿,WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶,跌幅3.35%;布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶,跌幅3.40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a9907c40a01d7cd5283858e1628510\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势,限制了金价升幅,因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速,美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>截至发稿,纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司,涨幅0.14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90d9d7a33007ec0255a59544aa82ebd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前:欧美疫情重来?道指期货跌200点,中概股反弹</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-19 20:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月19日(周五),美股三大指数期货涨跌不一,纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化,拖累周期性股票,而科技股相对风险较低。</p>\n<p>奥地利今日直接宣布下周一(22日)起将实施全国封锁,并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌,此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施,而非封国。</p>\n<p>而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高,首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例,法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。</p>\n<p>目前,美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁,但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料,截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分,过去24小时里,美国新增确诊病例110269例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e5d2824c8eb166acffd566bee8c301\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>【<b>中概股】</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期,周四大跌超11%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>盘前涨1.59%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果,京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股,二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%, 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度,新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元,同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元,而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YI\">1药网</a>盘前涨2.36%,第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元,同比增长42%。</p>\n<p>部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨1.33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨1.05%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨2.33%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUO\">房多多</a>大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元),逊于公司自身预期;不按美国公认会计准则计,净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元),环比扩大。</p>\n<p>【<b>重要美股】</b></p>\n<p>“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian Automotive Inc</a>涨超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">Lucid Group Inc</a>跌超1%。而老“王者”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前微涨0.57%。</p>\n<p>美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬,Hexo涨6%,Tilray涨4.95%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>涨3%,Sundial Grower涨2.12%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna</a>盘前涨1.51%,据报道,Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针,目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>盘前涨超4%,季度业绩超华尔街预期,小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期,但没有上调盈利预期。</p>\n<p>在线奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTCH\">Farfetch Ltd</a>盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后,Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示,公司当季营收为5.83亿美元,低于市场预期,上年同期为4.38亿美元;税后利润7.69亿美元,上年同期亏损5.37亿美元;经调整后每股亏损0.14美元,上年同期亏损0.17美元。</p>\n<p>【<b>大宗商品】</b></p>\n<p>国际油价大跌。截至发稿,WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶,跌幅3.35%;布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶,跌幅3.40%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5a9907c40a01d7cd5283858e1628510\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势,限制了金价升幅,因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速,美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。</p>\n<p>截至发稿,纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司,涨幅0.14%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b90d9d7a33007ec0255a59544aa82ebd\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120958755","content_text":"11月19日(周五),美股三大指数期货涨跌不一,纳指期货走高。主要由于欧洲疫情再度恶化,拖累周期性股票,而科技股相对风险较低。\n奥地利今日直接宣布下周一(22日)起将实施全国封锁,并将于将于2022年2月1日起强制接种新冠疫苗。突发的封国消息令市场恐慌,此前欧洲多国只是加强了部分限制措施,而非封国。\n而欧洲最大经济体周四的新增确诊病例创历史新高,首次突破6.5万。波兰、匈牙利、等国新增确诊病例数也在近日陆续创下新高。英国也报告新增确诊病例超过4.6万例,法国报告新增确诊病例超2万例。\n目前,美国疫情虽未引发欧洲一样的封锁,但也不容乐观。根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学统计资料,截至北京时间2021年11月19日6时21分,过去24小时里,美国新增确诊病例110269例。\n\n【中概股】\n阿里巴巴盘前跌0.76%。阿里二季度营收、盈利均不及预期,周四大跌超11%。\n京东盘前涨1.59%,网易盘前涨3.61%。此前恒指公司公布季检结果,京东、网易H股获纳入恒指成份股,二者在恒指中的权重分别为1.54%和0.64%, 所有变动将于2021年12月6日(星期一)起生效。\n新氧盘前涨2%。2021年第三季度,新氧总营收为人民币4.315亿元,同比增长20%。归属于新氧科技的净利润为人民币680万元,而上年同期净利润为人民币90万元。\n1药网盘前涨2.36%,第三季度公司营收达33.46亿元,同比增长42%。\n部分热门中概股在盘前反弹。哔哩哔哩涨1.33%,腾讯音乐涨1.05%,贝壳涨2.33%。\n房多多大跌14%。第三季度营收环比下降57.8%至1.692亿元人民币(2630万美元),逊于公司自身预期;不按美国公认会计准则计,净亏损3.344亿元人民币(5330万美元),环比扩大。\n【重要美股】\n“电车新贵”盘前涨跌不一,Rivian Automotive Inc涨超3%,Lucid Group Inc跌超1%。而老“王者”特斯拉盘前微涨0.57%。\n美股工业大麻板块盘前上扬,Hexo涨6%,Tilray涨4.95%,奥罗拉大麻公司涨3%,Sundial Grower涨2.12%。\nModerna盘前涨1.51%,据报道,Moderna向美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)申请全面批准旗下疫苗加强针,目前FDA只允许高危或免疫功能低下的人群接种Moderna加强针。\nPalo Alto Networks盘前涨超4%,季度业绩超华尔街预期,小幅上调全年订单额和营收预期,但没有上调盈利预期。\n在线奢侈品零售商Farfetch Ltd盘前大跌22%。周四美股盘后,Farfetch公佈2021财年Q3业绩报告。报告显示,公司当季营收为5.83亿美元,低于市场预期,上年同期为4.38亿美元;税后利润7.69亿美元,上年同期亏损5.37亿美元;经调整后每股亏损0.14美元,上年同期亏损0.17美元。\n【大宗商品】\n国际油价大跌。截至发稿,WTI原油期货价格报75.78美元/桶,跌幅3.35%;布伦特原油期货价格报78.48美元/桶,跌幅3.40%。\n\n国际金价小幅震荡。美元指数收复前两个交易日全部跌势,限制了金价升幅,因随着通胀继续飙升和经济提速,美联储决策高层正在考虑更早加息的可能性。\n截至发稿,纽约市场黄金期货价格报1864.05美元/盎司,涨幅0.14%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871159458,"gmtCreate":1637040040582,"gmtModify":1637040040688,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871159458","repostId":"1139856601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871159634,"gmtCreate":1637039982459,"gmtModify":1637039982528,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read ","listText":"Good read ","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871159634","repostId":"2183079091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873479255,"gmtCreate":1636982312323,"gmtModify":1636982786804,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">$星巴克(SBUX)$</a>[开心] ","text":"$星巴克(SBUX)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf706efaa37b62838da76a082dd67c8","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873479255","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873071005,"gmtCreate":1636813889947,"gmtModify":1636813890052,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阅[微笑] ","listText":"阅[微笑] ","text":"阅[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873071005","repostId":"1119009229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879676258,"gmtCreate":1636724496711,"gmtModify":1636724496805,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"通货膨胀 [回头] ","listText":"通货膨胀 [回头] ","text":"通货膨胀 [回头]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879676258","repostId":"2182093443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2182093443","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1636697812,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2182093443?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 14:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国将会“日本化”?前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2182093443","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"萨默斯表示,当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍,这会使美国经济回归长期停滞状态,通货膨胀上行风险加大。","content":"<p>11月10日,美国前财长拉里 萨默斯(Larry Summers)在伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)举行的演讲中,<b>对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击,并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时,萨默斯预计,未来若干年,全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。</b></p>\n<p>在演讲中,萨默斯表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍,如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策,使得从市场价格反映的情况看,经济将回归长期停滞状态。换种说法描述这个情况便是,日本化。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>“日本化”的第一表征为流动性陷阱的出现,这会导致货币政策的失灵。</b>这一词语经常被经济学家拿来<b>描述经济长期停滞和通货紧缩</b>的情况,通常伴随着<b>高失业率、实际利率接近于零、经济活动疲软以及央行刺激措施(包括量化宽松)</b>等表现。</p>\n<p>此前,在接受《国际经济》杂志的一次采访中,萨默斯就已对鲍威尔领导的美联储表达过不满,对美联储为了实现政府政策目标而延长宽松的货币政策,忽视通胀管理这一情况表达了强烈谴责。他表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “如今的美联储总是在讨论一些与通货膨胀或者失业无关的挑战,如气候变化等。这些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>的官员们拒绝采取措施,先发制人地对通胀进行管理,他们只知道等待,什么事情也不做,眼看着如今通胀发生。”\n</blockquote>\n<h2>萨默斯的警告</h2>\n<p>早在2013年,萨默斯就曾对如今的情况发出预警。他表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在金融危机的几年后,我得出了一个结论,工业化国家的主要问题之一将是储蓄过剩和投资不足”\n</blockquote>\n<p>同时,他解释道:<b>这种情况的发生将会导致极低的实际利率、经济低迷、高杠杆和资产价格膨胀</b>,<b>而极低的借贷成本又将增加另一场金融危机的风险。</b></p>\n<p>萨默斯称,2013年之后的情况也印证了他的假设。此后几年美国预算赤字大幅增加,利率大幅下降,资产价格远高于预期,然而增长却远低于预期。</p>\n<p>同时,<b>他还警告了因实际利率过低造成的资产泡沫和资本配置不当风险</b>:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “极低的利率为僵尸企业加杠杆和苟延残喘提供了极大的方便,也为资产泡沫的延续奠定了基础。现在我们就已经看到了很多投机风险的证据,极低或者负的实际利率是很有问题的。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>(华尔街见闻注:极低的实际利率使得借贷成本大幅降低甚至为负,会使得市场上充满大量投机性的“热钱”。)</p>\n<h2>美联储不作为,通胀过高引发众大佬抨击</h2>\n<p>从美联储的职责来看,<b>其首要职责就是促使通胀维持在2%左右,然而,今年美国通胀居高不下</b>。</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前提及,10月通胀CPI同比大涨6.2%,创31年以来新高;另一边,于2002年被美联储采纳为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标的核心PCE物价指数,在今年9月较去年同期上升3.6%,也位于近30年最高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34993af32ad8d03aa4f35d42235d9468\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>此前,美联储将通胀定性为“暂时的”,随后,由于美国通胀压力无法自行消解,美联储主席鲍威尔将对通胀的描述改为“令人沮丧的”。</p>\n<p>对于美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀的“不作为”的行为,众多大佬纷纷表达了不满。</p>\n<p>11月11日,<b>桥水基金的创始人 Ray Dalio 便向市场敲响了警钟</b>,在美国通胀创1990年以来新高之际他警告称:投资组合的价值增长并不真实地意味着财富的增长。人们误以为,资产价格上涨意味着自己正变得富裕,他们忽视了自己的购买力正在被(通胀)所侵蚀。他认为,认为,本轮通货膨胀的产生很简单,就是源于政府印钱。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “此时 1) 政府印制了更多的钱,2) 人们得到了更多的钱,3) 产生了更多的购买,从而导致了更多的通货膨胀。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>此前,<b>亚特兰大联储主席 Raphael Bostic</b> 就对美联储将通胀定性为“暂时性的”的说法颇为不满,他表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “用‘暂时性’来描述美国的通胀是一句脏话。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>绿光基金创始人 <b>David Einhorn</b> 就认为美联储没有胆量对抗通胀的原因是:鲍威尔没有胆量面对对抗通胀可能带来的新一轮衰退。对此,在10月20日,他猛烈地抨击到:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鲍威尔对通货膨胀毫无作为,他不仅没有努力对抗通胀,相反,他一直坚持制造通胀的政策。”\n</blockquote>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国将会“日本化”?前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国将会“日本化”?前财长萨默斯炮轰美联储\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-12 14:16 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月10日,美国前财长拉里 萨默斯(Larry Summers)在伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)举行的演讲中,对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击,并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时,萨默斯预计,未来若干年,全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。\n在演讲中,萨默斯表示:\n\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍,如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPY":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3644757","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2182093443","content_text":"11月10日,美国前财长拉里 萨默斯(Larry Summers)在伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)举行的演讲中,对美联储宽松的货币政策发出猛烈抨击,并对通胀上行风险发出警告。同时,萨默斯预计,未来若干年,全球金融市场都将在经济缓慢增长与实际利率走低的过程中表现挣扎。\n在演讲中,萨默斯表示:\n\n “当前美联储的放水规模是2008年金融危机后的5-10倍,如此大规模的财政刺激措施以及非同寻常的货币政策,使得从市场价格反映的情况看,经济将回归长期停滞状态。换种说法描述这个情况便是,日本化。”\n\n“日本化”的第一表征为流动性陷阱的出现,这会导致货币政策的失灵。这一词语经常被经济学家拿来描述经济长期停滞和通货紧缩的情况,通常伴随着高失业率、实际利率接近于零、经济活动疲软以及央行刺激措施(包括量化宽松)等表现。\n此前,在接受《国际经济》杂志的一次采访中,萨默斯就已对鲍威尔领导的美联储表达过不满,对美联储为了实现政府政策目标而延长宽松的货币政策,忽视通胀管理这一情况表达了强烈谴责。他表示:\n\n “如今的美联储总是在讨论一些与通货膨胀或者失业无关的挑战,如气候变化等。这些中央银行的官员们拒绝采取措施,先发制人地对通胀进行管理,他们只知道等待,什么事情也不做,眼看着如今通胀发生。”\n\n萨默斯的警告\n早在2013年,萨默斯就曾对如今的情况发出预警。他表示:\n\n “在金融危机的几年后,我得出了一个结论,工业化国家的主要问题之一将是储蓄过剩和投资不足”\n\n同时,他解释道:这种情况的发生将会导致极低的实际利率、经济低迷、高杠杆和资产价格膨胀,而极低的借贷成本又将增加另一场金融危机的风险。\n萨默斯称,2013年之后的情况也印证了他的假设。此后几年美国预算赤字大幅增加,利率大幅下降,资产价格远高于预期,然而增长却远低于预期。\n同时,他还警告了因实际利率过低造成的资产泡沫和资本配置不当风险:\n\n “极低的利率为僵尸企业加杠杆和苟延残喘提供了极大的方便,也为资产泡沫的延续奠定了基础。现在我们就已经看到了很多投机风险的证据,极低或者负的实际利率是很有问题的。”\n\n(华尔街见闻注:极低的实际利率使得借贷成本大幅降低甚至为负,会使得市场上充满大量投机性的“热钱”。)\n美联储不作为,通胀过高引发众大佬抨击\n从美联储的职责来看,其首要职责就是促使通胀维持在2%左右,然而,今年美国通胀居高不下。\n华尔街见闻此前提及,10月通胀CPI同比大涨6.2%,创31年以来新高;另一边,于2002年被美联储采纳为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标的核心PCE物价指数,在今年9月较去年同期上升3.6%,也位于近30年最高位。\n\n此前,美联储将通胀定性为“暂时的”,随后,由于美国通胀压力无法自行消解,美联储主席鲍威尔将对通胀的描述改为“令人沮丧的”。\n对于美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀的“不作为”的行为,众多大佬纷纷表达了不满。\n11月11日,桥水基金的创始人 Ray Dalio 便向市场敲响了警钟,在美国通胀创1990年以来新高之际他警告称:投资组合的价值增长并不真实地意味着财富的增长。人们误以为,资产价格上涨意味着自己正变得富裕,他们忽视了自己的购买力正在被(通胀)所侵蚀。他认为,认为,本轮通货膨胀的产生很简单,就是源于政府印钱。\n\n “此时 1) 政府印制了更多的钱,2) 人们得到了更多的钱,3) 产生了更多的购买,从而导致了更多的通货膨胀。”\n\n此前,亚特兰大联储主席 Raphael Bostic 就对美联储将通胀定性为“暂时性的”的说法颇为不满,他表示:\n\n “用‘暂时性’来描述美国的通胀是一句脏话。”\n\n绿光基金创始人 David Einhorn 就认为美联储没有胆量对抗通胀的原因是:鲍威尔没有胆量面对对抗通胀可能带来的新一轮衰退。对此,在10月20日,他猛烈地抨击到:\n\n 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","text":"$泰国酿酒(Y92.SI)$[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ea4e951f8a8d9a3fe5b85a4f0abf9a","width":"750","height":"1174"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844598362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":816589707,"gmtCreate":1630507218609,"gmtModify":1631889990519,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No wonder ","listText":"No wonder ","text":"No wonder","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816589707","repostId":"1166477679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166477679","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630506475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166477679?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 22:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.<blockquote>Lucid股票正在下跌。原因与电动汽车制造无关。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166477679","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electr","content":"<p>Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat..</p><p><blockquote>Lucid的投资者将经历初创电动汽车公司中经常发生的艰难日子之一。该股早盘下跌16%,而标准普尔500指数上涨0.2%,道琼斯工业平均指数持平..</blockquote></p><p> Life can be tough for investors in these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with corporate fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于这些公司的投资者来说,生活可能会很艰难。很多事情都可以显着影响股价。其中很多与企业基本面无关。</blockquote></p><p> The issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三的问题是Lucid PIPE(即公共股权私人投资)投资者的股票销售禁令到期。管道锁定于周三到期。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid成为一家上市公司,并通过与一家特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)合并筹集了超过40亿美元。管道是SPAC合并的共同特征。Lucid PIPE筹集了该公司收到的44亿美元总额中的约25亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management & Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.</p><p><blockquote>PIPE投资者的质量(他们可以是大型机构)通常会改善投资者对SPAC合并的看法。Lucid的PIPE投资者包括贝莱德(BLK)、富达管理与研究、富兰克林邓普顿、路博迈、惠灵顿管理等管理的账户。</blockquote></p><p> PIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>根据最近提交的文件,PIPE投资者拥有该股约10%的股份。PIPE股票的售价约为每股15美元,因此这些投资者将获得可观的收益。Lucid股价早盘报16.84美元。</blockquote></p><p> Anytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.</p><p><blockquote>每当大量股票可供出售时,股价就可能疲软。投资者和交易员希望在大股东抛售之前退出。它会造成一种情况,即对销售的恐惧会导致实际销售。</blockquote></p><p> None of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.</p><p><blockquote>当然,PIPE股东都不必出售。他们现在可以卖了。Lucid没有立即就PIPE、投资者的计划或禁售期到期发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> Coming into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&P has gained about 8% over the same span.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三,Lucid股价在过去三个月内下跌了约7%。同期,标准普尔指数上涨了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> Other EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from General Motors(GM) regarding its second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.</p><p><blockquote>其他电动汽车股票也表现疲软。限制全球汽车生产的半导体短缺,加上通用汽车(GM)对其2021年下半年盈利的悲观预测,似乎让该行业失去了一些动力。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid plans to start making and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid计划于2021年晚些时候开始制造和交付其首款电动汽车Lucid Air。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.<blockquote>Lucid股票正在下跌。原因与电动汽车制造无关。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Stock is Tanking. The Reason Has Nothing to Do With EV Manufacturing.<blockquote>Lucid股票正在下跌。原因与电动汽车制造无关。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-01 22:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat..</p><p><blockquote>Lucid的投资者将经历初创电动汽车公司中经常发生的艰难日子之一。该股早盘下跌16%,而标准普尔500指数上涨0.2%,道琼斯工业平均指数持平..</blockquote></p><p> Life can be tough for investors in these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with corporate fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于这些公司的投资者来说,生活可能会很艰难。很多事情都可以显着影响股价。其中很多与企业基本面无关。</blockquote></p><p> The issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三的问题是Lucid PIPE(即公共股权私人投资)投资者的股票销售禁令到期。管道锁定于周三到期。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid成为一家上市公司,并通过与一家特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)合并筹集了超过40亿美元。管道是SPAC合并的共同特征。Lucid PIPE筹集了该公司收到的44亿美元总额中的约25亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management & Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.</p><p><blockquote>PIPE投资者的质量(他们可以是大型机构)通常会改善投资者对SPAC合并的看法。Lucid的PIPE投资者包括贝莱德(BLK)、富达管理与研究、富兰克林邓普顿、路博迈、惠灵顿管理等管理的账户。</blockquote></p><p> PIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>根据最近提交的文件,PIPE投资者拥有该股约10%的股份。PIPE股票的售价约为每股15美元,因此这些投资者将获得可观的收益。Lucid股价早盘报16.84美元。</blockquote></p><p> Anytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.</p><p><blockquote>每当大量股票可供出售时,股价就可能疲软。投资者和交易员希望在大股东抛售之前退出。它会造成一种情况,即对销售的恐惧会导致实际销售。</blockquote></p><p> None of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.</p><p><blockquote>当然,PIPE股东都不必出售。他们现在可以卖了。Lucid没有立即就PIPE、投资者的计划或禁售期到期发表评论。</blockquote></p><p> Coming into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&P has gained about 8% over the same span.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三,Lucid股价在过去三个月内下跌了约7%。同期,标准普尔指数上涨了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> Other EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from General Motors(GM) regarding its second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.</p><p><blockquote>其他电动汽车股票也表现疲软。限制全球汽车生产的半导体短缺,加上通用汽车(GM)对其2021年下半年盈利的悲观预测,似乎让该行业失去了一些动力。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid plans to start making and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid计划于2021年晚些时候开始制造和交付其首款电动汽车Lucid Air。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/lucid-stock-falls-pipe-sales-lockup-51630504671?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1166477679","content_text":"Investors in Lucid are set to have one of the difficult days that often happen among start-up electric-vehicle companies. The share were down 16% in early trading, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat..\nLife can be tough for investors in these companies.So many things can move the stock price significantly. Many of them have nothing to do with corporate fundamentals.\nThe issue Wednesday is the expiration of a stock-selling prohibition for investors inLucid’s PIPE, or private investment in public equity. The PIPE lockup expired Wednesday.\nLucid became a publicly traded company, and raised more than $4 billion, by merging with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. PIPEs are a common feature of SPAC mergers. The Lucid PIPE raised about $2.5 billion of the total $4.4 billion the company received.\nThe quality of the PIPE investors–they can be large institutions–often improves investors’ perceptions about a SPAC merger. Lucid’s PIPE investors included accounts managed by BlackRock(BLK), Fidelity Management & Research,Franklin Templeton,Neuberger Berman, Wellington Management, and others.\nPIPE investors own about 10% of the stock, based on recent filings. The PIPE stock was sold at about $15 a share, so those investors are sitting on nice gains. Lucid stock was at $16.84 in early trading.\nAnytime a large block of stock becomes available to sell, shares can be weak. Investors, and traders, look to get out ahead of any selling by large shareholders. It can create a situation, where the fear of selling creates actual selling.\nNone of the PIPE shareholders have to sell, of course. They simply can sell now. Lucid wasn’t immediately available to comment on the PIPE, investors’ plans, or the lockup expiration.\nComing into Wednesday, Lucid stock was down about 7% over the past three months. The S&P has gained about 8% over the same span.\nOther EV stocks have been weak too. The semiconductor shortage, which is constraining global auto production, together with a downbeat forecast from General Motors(GM) regarding its second-half 2021earnings, seem to have taken some of the wind out of the sails of the sector.\nLucid plans to start making and delivering its first EV, the Lucid Air, later in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164614346,"gmtCreate":1624200279685,"gmtModify":1634009555577,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582540923206106","idStr":"3582540923206106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read ","listText":"Good read ","text":"Good 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