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CLT224

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2021-08-30

Wrong bet.

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2021-08-29

Good prospect.

Intel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>

2021-08-25

Higher and higher.

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2021-08-25

More years.

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2021-08-25

Consistent.

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2021-08-25

Finally. Afghan for afghans.

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2021-08-25

Wow.

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2021-08-23

Yes.

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2021-08-23

Great.

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2021-08-23

Great.

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2021-08-23

Great

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2021-08-23

Yeah. Continuity.

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2021-08-13

Food is the new black.

Olam looking to raise about $3 bln via food ingredients London IPO - sources<blockquote>Olam希望通过food ingredients伦敦IPO筹集约30亿美元-消息人士</blockquote>

2021-07-18

Multiverses are here.

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2021-07-18

Contents contents contents

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2021-07-17

Correction

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2021-07-04

In the clouds

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2021-07-04

Up

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2021-07-04

Be afraid

5 wise money moves before the Fed starts raising interest rates again<blockquote>美联储再次开始加息前的5项明智资金举措</blockquote>

2021-07-04

Wait

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bet.","listText":"Wrong bet.","text":"Wrong bet.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811661652","repostId":"1179773136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813627404,"gmtCreate":1630200234808,"gmtModify":1704956893811,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good prospect.","listText":"Good prospect.","text":"Good prospect.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813627404","repostId":"1190647001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190647001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630069423,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190647001?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 21:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190647001","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWhile most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was appare","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>While most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.</li>  <li>During the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.</li>  <li>The question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b0d1e3cc9b919c60cd62c91975b386\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹，但英特尔显然没有被邀请参加派对。</li><li>在过去的六个月里，英特尔实际上下跌了15%。</li><li>问题仍然是该股是一个价值陷阱还是一个随时会弹出的螺旋弹簧。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.</p><p><blockquote>正如福特汽车公司(F)、卡特彼勒(CAT)和3M公司（3M）等工业巨头在20世纪初通过重大工业创新推动美国（和世界）前进一样，半导体制造商也在推动21世纪的技术革命。</blockquote></p><p> It seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>如今，似乎所有东西都需要芯片，人们面临着让芯片变得更快、更小、更便宜的压力。</blockquote></p><p> That said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹（有充分的理由），但英特尔公司。（INTC）显然没有被邀请参加聚会（或者可能只是太晚了？）.</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，在过去的6个月里，该领域的赢家和输家之间的分歧已经变得相当明显。NVIDIA Corp.(NVDA)和Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)等芯片宠儿分别上涨52.9%和24.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，英特尔下跌14.9%，美光科技(MU)下跌超过20%！</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/197282917802a0c939a75f60ec792487\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we have recently penned our thoughts about&nbsp;Micron,NVIDIA, and&nbsp;Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们最近写下了对美光、NVIDIA和Advanced Micro Devices的想法，但现在也是时候深入挖掘英特尔了。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，尽管行业普遍有利（即芯片需求远远超过供应），但英特尔今年仍面临着相当多的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔有一些有据可查的制造失误，导致了重大延误（并失去了一些市场份额）。这引发了投资者的担忧，即该股现在可能是一个潜在的“价值陷阱”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我绝对相信这位行业资深人士仍然可能是一个准备好的螺旋弹簧，有潜力缩小与一些赢家（如NVDA和AMD）的差距。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我认为我们还没有接近芯片需求的峰值，我相信英特尔的制造能力在未来几年是（并将继续是）该公司的巨大优势。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:</p><p><blockquote>本文的其余部分将对英特尔进行定量研究，以证实我的定性假设，即该股应该从这里开始走高：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>  <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>  <li>Upside Target</li>  <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>  <li>Downside Considerations</li>  <li>Conclusion</li> </ul> <i>Sources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</li><li>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</li><li>上行目标</li><li>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</li><li>不利因素</li><li>结论</li></ul><i>以下所有数据和表格的来源：Option Income Advisor和YCharts</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel Corp.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔公司。</b></blockquote></p><p>   Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors    Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.  <i>(Source:</i>  <i>YCharts</i>  <i>)</i>  <b>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</b></p><p><blockquote>部门/行业：科技/半导体英特尔是全球最大的芯片制造商。它为全球个人电脑和数据中心市场设计和制造微处理器。英特尔开创了微处理器x86架构。它是半导体制造进步摩尔定律的主要支持者，尽管该公司最近面临制造延误。虽然英特尔的服务器处理器业务受益于向云的转变，但随着个人电脑市场停滞不前，该公司也一直在向新的领域扩张。其中包括物联网、人工智能和汽车等领域。英特尔在并购方面一直很活跃，收购了Altera、Mobileye和Habana Labs，以加强这些在非PC领域的努力。<i>（来源：</i><i>YCharts</i><i>)</i><b>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我们对股票的高水平长期投资论点本质上更多的是定量而不是定性。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，英特尔目前在我们的关键长期排名指标中排名非常好：股息(7)、安全性(8)、价值(10)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409ba12610069e477e6973a53eabf653\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>请注意，我们的排名是从1（最低）到10（最高）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>红利</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在过去七年中每年都提高了股息，目前的收益率为2.6%，派息率相当低，为29.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b59d73a44d9e1f67468b8fdd556e45d\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司的年度派息一直在稳步增长，1年、5年和10年复合年增长率分别为4.8%、6.6%和7.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> Up until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>直到2020年，英特尔的销售额和每股收益增长相对稳定。然而，过去一年左右的生产延迟导致销售额和每股收益下降。管理层确实预计2022年和2023年运营将趋于稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ce38e4effa43f86f74784d75217bf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor / YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Option Income Advisor/YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司的资产负债表仍然强劲，拥有250亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的历史股票波动性较低，五年标准差为29%，贝塔值为0.60，这也增加了其相对较高的安全排名。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前的估值最高评级为10。如下表所示，与我们关注的所有4个估值倍数的历史平均水平相比，该公司的交易价格均有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7036b246d6d8630a59b53041a502b8e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Intel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p><p><blockquote>英特尔的股东收益率也非常有吸引力，为8.3%。<i>请注意，股东收益率是回购收益率和股息收益率的组合。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长远观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述数据和我们的各种排名，我们长期看好英特尔。尽管销售额和每股收益刚刚从近期的下跌中开始企稳，但该公司的估值和波动性非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</b></blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对英特尔的打击区为47.00美元至51.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01b1ac65c7cbccb50edf71635ab87c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>正如上面的安全排名分析中所讨论的，英特尔在股票波动性/风险方面的相对排名为正。此外，该股已从近期高点回调超过21%（因此其回调指标也排名为正）。这两个打击区因素都有助于将所需的最低安全裕度保持在5.3%的合理水平。</blockquote></p><p> Also, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，英特尔的下一次每股收益公告还有58天，因此我们短期内无需担心任何每股收益风险。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股的上升趋势已被打破，股价均低于50日移动平均线（蓝线）和200日移动平均线（红线）。也就是说，我们认为该股几天前可能会在52.00美元左右触底，我们将寻找该水平作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322a2276f8f4edb75ed9e614f7a547e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期观点</b></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区47.00美元至51.00美元的高端附近似乎有一些不错的技术支撑，这显然让我们对持有股票感觉相对良好，如果可以的话，可能会在执行区出售额外的现金担保看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Upside Considerations (Target Price)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上行考虑（目标价）</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>尽管42名华尔街分析师中有26名对该股给予“持有”或更低评级，但英特尔的一致目标价仍为63.00美元（较当前水平上涨超过17%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于目前有如此多的分析师处于“持有”或以下，这为未来的一系列升级打开了大门（这通常也伴随着价格目标的上调）。这种催化剂可能是重要的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们也认为，随着公司盈利的稳定，英特尔短期内肯定有一定的利润率扩张空间。</blockquote></p><p> If you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>如果您将每股4.50美元的预期收益仅按15倍计算，则相当于股价为67.50美元（较当前水平上涨超过25%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> Although we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们已经持有该股票，但我们认为现在是增加头寸并利用上涨机会的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> For new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于新投资者来说，我们认为该股在当前水平上确实很有吸引力，建议买入。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25fe478b0167c759cd88403a036f0f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li>  <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>  <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是呈负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英特尔的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是将于21年9月17日到期的9月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca238403b1a39eadf67d5459adca855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>  <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>  <li>Delta &lt; 30</li> </ul> The INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ&lt;30</li></ul>INTC 9月17日52.00美元看跌期权@约0.50美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.3%，安全边际为3.4%，Delta为26。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（52.50美元执行）或更保守（50.00美元执行）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们以0.50美元的价格出售INTC 9月17日52.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取50.00美元的权利金。作为溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以52.00美元的执行价为每份出售的合约购买100股INTC股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在52.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留0.50美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于52.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以52.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是51.50美元（52.00美元-0.50美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在管理三重收入轮时，您应该期望接受5%-10%的现金担保看跌交易的转让（购买股票）。</blockquote></p><p> But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and&nbsp;sell some covered calls on our stock position&nbsp;to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p><p><blockquote>但当这种情况发生时，我们可以进入上图中的第3步，出售我们股票头寸上的一些担保评级，以再次开始收入流动并立即开始降低我们的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英特尔的长期和短期看法，我们认为该股在当前水平上值得买入，但如果您能够以51.50美元的成本基础增加您的英特尔头寸，那将是更大的胜利（并坐下来）当股票上涨时领取股息）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 21:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>While most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.</li>  <li>During the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.</li>  <li>The question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b0d1e3cc9b919c60cd62c91975b386\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹，但英特尔显然没有被邀请参加派对。</li><li>在过去的六个月里，英特尔实际上下跌了15%。</li><li>问题仍然是该股是一个价值陷阱还是一个随时会弹出的螺旋弹簧。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.</p><p><blockquote>正如福特汽车公司(F)、卡特彼勒(CAT)和3M公司（3M）等工业巨头在20世纪初通过重大工业创新推动美国（和世界）前进一样，半导体制造商也在推动21世纪的技术革命。</blockquote></p><p> It seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>如今，似乎所有东西都需要芯片，人们面临着让芯片变得更快、更小、更便宜的压力。</blockquote></p><p> That said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹（有充分的理由），但英特尔公司。（INTC）显然没有被邀请参加聚会（或者可能只是太晚了？）.</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，在过去的6个月里，该领域的赢家和输家之间的分歧已经变得相当明显。NVIDIA Corp.(NVDA)和Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)等芯片宠儿分别上涨52.9%和24.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，英特尔下跌14.9%，美光科技(MU)下跌超过20%！</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/197282917802a0c939a75f60ec792487\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we have recently penned our thoughts about&nbsp;Micron,NVIDIA, and&nbsp;Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们最近写下了对美光、NVIDIA和Advanced Micro Devices的想法，但现在也是时候深入挖掘英特尔了。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，尽管行业普遍有利（即芯片需求远远超过供应），但英特尔今年仍面临着相当多的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔有一些有据可查的制造失误，导致了重大延误（并失去了一些市场份额）。这引发了投资者的担忧，即该股现在可能是一个潜在的“价值陷阱”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我绝对相信这位行业资深人士仍然可能是一个准备好的螺旋弹簧，有潜力缩小与一些赢家（如NVDA和AMD）的差距。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我认为我们还没有接近芯片需求的峰值，我相信英特尔的制造能力在未来几年是（并将继续是）该公司的巨大优势。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:</p><p><blockquote>本文的其余部分将对英特尔进行定量研究，以证实我的定性假设，即该股应该从这里开始走高：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>  <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>  <li>Upside Target</li>  <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>  <li>Downside Considerations</li>  <li>Conclusion</li> </ul> <i>Sources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</li><li>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</li><li>上行目标</li><li>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</li><li>不利因素</li><li>结论</li></ul><i>以下所有数据和表格的来源：Option Income Advisor和YCharts</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel Corp.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔公司。</b></blockquote></p><p>   Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors    Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.  <i>(Source:</i>  <i>YCharts</i>  <i>)</i>  <b>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</b></p><p><blockquote>部门/行业：科技/半导体英特尔是全球最大的芯片制造商。它为全球个人电脑和数据中心市场设计和制造微处理器。英特尔开创了微处理器x86架构。它是半导体制造进步摩尔定律的主要支持者，尽管该公司最近面临制造延误。虽然英特尔的服务器处理器业务受益于向云的转变，但随着个人电脑市场停滞不前，该公司也一直在向新的领域扩张。其中包括物联网、人工智能和汽车等领域。英特尔在并购方面一直很活跃，收购了Altera、Mobileye和Habana Labs，以加强这些在非PC领域的努力。<i>（来源：</i><i>YCharts</i><i>)</i><b>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我们对股票的高水平长期投资论点本质上更多的是定量而不是定性。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，英特尔目前在我们的关键长期排名指标中排名非常好：股息(7)、安全性(8)、价值(10)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409ba12610069e477e6973a53eabf653\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>请注意，我们的排名是从1（最低）到10（最高）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>红利</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在过去七年中每年都提高了股息，目前的收益率为2.6%，派息率相当低，为29.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b59d73a44d9e1f67468b8fdd556e45d\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司的年度派息一直在稳步增长，1年、5年和10年复合年增长率分别为4.8%、6.6%和7.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> Up until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>直到2020年，英特尔的销售额和每股收益增长相对稳定。然而，过去一年左右的生产延迟导致销售额和每股收益下降。管理层确实预计2022年和2023年运营将趋于稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ce38e4effa43f86f74784d75217bf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor / YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Option Income Advisor/YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司的资产负债表仍然强劲，拥有250亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的历史股票波动性较低，五年标准差为29%，贝塔值为0.60，这也增加了其相对较高的安全排名。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前的估值最高评级为10。如下表所示，与我们关注的所有4个估值倍数的历史平均水平相比，该公司的交易价格均有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7036b246d6d8630a59b53041a502b8e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Intel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p><p><blockquote>英特尔的股东收益率也非常有吸引力，为8.3%。<i>请注意，股东收益率是回购收益率和股息收益率的组合。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长远观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述数据和我们的各种排名，我们长期看好英特尔。尽管销售额和每股收益刚刚从近期的下跌中开始企稳，但该公司的估值和波动性非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</b></blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对英特尔的打击区为47.00美元至51.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01b1ac65c7cbccb50edf71635ab87c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>正如上面的安全排名分析中所讨论的，英特尔在股票波动性/风险方面的相对排名为正。此外，该股已从近期高点回调超过21%（因此其回调指标也排名为正）。这两个打击区因素都有助于将所需的最低安全裕度保持在5.3%的合理水平。</blockquote></p><p> Also, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，英特尔的下一次每股收益公告还有58天，因此我们短期内无需担心任何每股收益风险。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股的上升趋势已被打破，股价均低于50日移动平均线（蓝线）和200日移动平均线（红线）。也就是说，我们认为该股几天前可能会在52.00美元左右触底，我们将寻找该水平作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322a2276f8f4edb75ed9e614f7a547e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期观点</b></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区47.00美元至51.00美元的高端附近似乎有一些不错的技术支撑，这显然让我们对持有股票感觉相对良好，如果可以的话，可能会在执行区出售额外的现金担保看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Upside Considerations (Target Price)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上行考虑（目标价）</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>尽管42名华尔街分析师中有26名对该股给予“持有”或更低评级，但英特尔的一致目标价仍为63.00美元（较当前水平上涨超过17%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于目前有如此多的分析师处于“持有”或以下，这为未来的一系列升级打开了大门（这通常也伴随着价格目标的上调）。这种催化剂可能是重要的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们也认为，随着公司盈利的稳定，英特尔短期内肯定有一定的利润率扩张空间。</blockquote></p><p> If you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>如果您将每股4.50美元的预期收益仅按15倍计算，则相当于股价为67.50美元（较当前水平上涨超过25%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> Although we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们已经持有该股票，但我们认为现在是增加头寸并利用上涨机会的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> For new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于新投资者来说，我们认为该股在当前水平上确实很有吸引力，建议买入。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25fe478b0167c759cd88403a036f0f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li>  <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>  <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是呈负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英特尔的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是将于21年9月17日到期的9月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca238403b1a39eadf67d5459adca855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>  <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>  <li>Delta &lt; 30</li> </ul> The INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ&lt;30</li></ul>INTC 9月17日52.00美元看跌期权@约0.50美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.3%，安全边际为3.4%，Delta为26。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（52.50美元执行）或更保守（50.00美元执行）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们以0.50美元的价格出售INTC 9月17日52.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取50.00美元的权利金。作为溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以52.00美元的执行价为每份出售的合约购买100股INTC股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在52.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留0.50美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于52.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以52.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是51.50美元（52.00美元-0.50美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在管理三重收入轮时，您应该期望接受5%-10%的现金担保看跌交易的转让（购买股票）。</blockquote></p><p> But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and&nbsp;sell some covered calls on our stock position&nbsp;to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p><p><blockquote>但当这种情况发生时，我们可以进入上图中的第3步，出售我们股票头寸上的一些担保评级，以再次开始收入流动并立即开始降低我们的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英特尔的长期和短期看法，我们认为该股在当前水平上值得买入，但如果您能够以51.50美元的成本基础增加您的英特尔头寸，那将是更大的胜利（并坐下来）当股票上涨时领取股息）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452025-intel-value-trap-or-buy-the-dip\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452025-intel-value-trap-or-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190647001","content_text":"Summary\n\nWhile most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.\nDuring the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.\nThe question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.\n\nNodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images\nJust as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.\nIt seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.\nThat said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).\nAs shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.\nMeanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!\nData by YCharts\nWhile we have recently penned our thoughts about Micron,NVIDIA, and Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.\nTo be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).\nSpecifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.\nAll that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).\nPersonally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.\nThe rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nUpside Target\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nDownside Considerations\nConclusion\n\nSources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts\nIntel Corp.\n\n Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors\n\n\n Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.\n (Source:\nYCharts\n)\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nIn general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.\nThat said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)\nNote that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).\nDividend\nIntel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.\n\nIn addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.\nSafety\nUp until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.\nSource: Option Income Advisor / YCharts\nThat said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.\nIntel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.\nValuation\nIntel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.\n\nIntel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.\nLong-Term View\nBased on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.\n\nAs discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.\nAlso, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.\n\nShort-Term View\nThere appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.\nUpside Considerations (Target Price)\nDespite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).\nAlso, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.\nThat said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.\nIf you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nAlthough we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.\nFor new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nWe have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).Please listen to the video above for further details.\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.\nIf the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).\nAll that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.\nBut when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837992008,"gmtCreate":1629851343204,"gmtModify":1633681999443,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Higher and higher.","listText":"Higher and higher.","text":"Higher and higher.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837992008","repostId":"1118026600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837999476,"gmtCreate":1629851149095,"gmtModify":1633682003357,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More years.","listText":"More years.","text":"More years.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837999476","repostId":"1167446644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837907228,"gmtCreate":1629851046764,"gmtModify":1633682004753,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Consistent.","listText":"Consistent.","text":"Consistent.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837907228","repostId":"2161081224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837901632,"gmtCreate":1629850824926,"gmtModify":1633682009236,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally. 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Continuity.","listText":"Yeah. Continuity.","text":"Yeah. Continuity.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835069349","repostId":"2161741461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894543958,"gmtCreate":1628842707274,"gmtModify":1633689060291,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Food is the new black.","listText":"Food is the new black.","text":"Food is the new black.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894543958","repostId":"1166024136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166024136","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628837415,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166024136?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 14:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Olam looking to raise about $3 bln via food ingredients London IPO - sources<blockquote>Olam希望通过food ingredients伦敦IPO筹集约30亿美元-消息人士</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166024136","media":"Reuters","summary":"SINGAPORE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Olam International(OLAM.SI), one of the world's biggest agricultural c","content":"<p>SINGAPORE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Olam International(OLAM.SI), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's biggest agricultural commodity traders, is considering raising about 2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) through the IPO of its food ingredients unit in London, which is set to take place next year, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>路透新加坡8月13日-奥兰国际(OLAM.SI)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>知情人士周五告诉路透社，全球最大的农产品贸易商之一，正在考虑通过其食品配料部门定于明年在伦敦进行的首次公开募股筹集约20亿英镑（28亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The company backed by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings (TEM.UL) and Mitsubishi Corp(8058.T)has appointed five global banks on the IPO, which is likely to rank among the biggest such offerings in London in the last few years, the sources said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股(TEM.UL)和三菱商事(8058.T)的支持，已指定五家全球银行进行IPO，这可能是过去几年伦敦最大的此类发行之一，消息人士称。</blockquote></p><p> Olam declined to comment on the fundraising amount but said on Friday that it would seek a primary listing for its food ingredients business in London and a concurrent secondary listing in Singapore by the first half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰拒绝就融资金额置评，但周五表示，将寻求其食品配料业务在伦敦首次上市，并在明年上半年同时在新加坡二次上市。</blockquote></p><p> The listing is part of a restructuring plan flagged last year, under which Olam is splitting its portfolio of diverse products into two new operating businesses as it aims to better position itself to a different set of global investors.</p><p><blockquote>此次上市是去年宣布的重组计划的一部分，根据该计划，奥兰将其多元化产品组合拆分为两个新的运营业务，旨在更好地向不同的全球投资者定位。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> of the sources said Olam had appointed <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>, Credit Suisse, HSBC, JPMorgan and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> to work on the IPO.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>奥兰任命的消息来源<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>、瑞士信贷、汇丰银行、摩根大通和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>致力于首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> Citi and JPMorgan declined to comment and there was no immediate response from the other banks.</p><p><blockquote>花旗和摩根大通拒绝置评，其他银行也没有立即做出回应。</blockquote></p><p> Olam Food Ingredients includes Olam's cocoa, coffee and edible nuts businesses, and Olam Global Agri comprises grains and animal feed, edible oils, rice and cotton, among others.</p><p><blockquote>Olam Food Ingredients包括Olam的可可、咖啡和食用坚果业务，Olam Global Agri包括谷物和动物饲料、食用油、大米和棉花等。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 0.7242 pounds)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=0.7242英镑）</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Olam looking to raise about $3 bln via food ingredients London IPO - sources<blockquote>Olam希望通过food ingredients伦敦IPO筹集约30亿美元-消息人士</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOlam looking to raise about $3 bln via food ingredients London IPO - sources<blockquote>Olam希望通过food ingredients伦敦IPO筹集约30亿美元-消息人士</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 14:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SINGAPORE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Olam International(OLAM.SI), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's biggest agricultural commodity traders, is considering raising about 2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) through the IPO of its food ingredients unit in London, which is set to take place next year, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>路透新加坡8月13日-奥兰国际(OLAM.SI)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>知情人士周五告诉路透社，全球最大的农产品贸易商之一，正在考虑通过其食品配料部门定于明年在伦敦进行的首次公开募股筹集约20亿英镑（28亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The company backed by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings (TEM.UL) and Mitsubishi Corp(8058.T)has appointed five global banks on the IPO, which is likely to rank among the biggest such offerings in London in the last few years, the sources said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股(TEM.UL)和三菱商事(8058.T)的支持，已指定五家全球银行进行IPO，这可能是过去几年伦敦最大的此类发行之一，消息人士称。</blockquote></p><p> Olam declined to comment on the fundraising amount but said on Friday that it would seek a primary listing for its food ingredients business in London and a concurrent secondary listing in Singapore by the first half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰拒绝就融资金额置评，但周五表示，将寻求其食品配料业务在伦敦首次上市，并在明年上半年同时在新加坡二次上市。</blockquote></p><p> The listing is part of a restructuring plan flagged last year, under which Olam is splitting its portfolio of diverse products into two new operating businesses as it aims to better position itself to a different set of global investors.</p><p><blockquote>此次上市是去年宣布的重组计划的一部分，根据该计划，奥兰将其多元化产品组合拆分为两个新的运营业务，旨在更好地向不同的全球投资者定位。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> of the sources said Olam had appointed <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>, Credit Suisse, HSBC, JPMorgan and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> to work on the IPO.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>奥兰任命的消息来源<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>、瑞士信贷、汇丰银行、摩根大通和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>致力于首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> Citi and JPMorgan declined to comment and there was no immediate response from the other banks.</p><p><blockquote>花旗和摩根大通拒绝置评，其他银行也没有立即做出回应。</blockquote></p><p> Olam Food Ingredients includes Olam's cocoa, coffee and edible nuts businesses, and Olam Global Agri comprises grains and animal feed, edible oils, rice and cotton, among others.</p><p><blockquote>Olam Food Ingredients包括Olam的可可、咖啡和食用坚果业务，Olam Global Agri包括谷物和动物饲料、食用油、大米和棉花等。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 0.7242 pounds)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=0.7242英镑）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-olam-considering-raising-2-bln-pounds-via-food-ingredients-london-ipo-2021-08-13/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-olam-considering-raising-2-bln-pounds-via-food-ingredients-london-ipo-2021-08-13/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166024136","content_text":"SINGAPORE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Olam International(OLAM.SI), one of the world's biggest agricultural commodity traders, is considering raising about 2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) through the IPO of its food ingredients unit in London, which is set to take place next year, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.\nThe company backed by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings (TEM.UL) and Mitsubishi Corp(8058.T)has appointed five global banks on the IPO, which is likely to rank among the biggest such offerings in London in the last few years, the sources said.\nOlam declined to comment on the fundraising amount but said on Friday that it would seek a primary listing for its food ingredients business in London and a concurrent secondary listing in Singapore by the first half of next year.\nThe listing is part of a restructuring plan flagged last year, under which Olam is splitting its portfolio of diverse products into two new operating businesses as it aims to better position itself to a different set of global investors.\nTwo of the sources said Olam had appointed Citigroup, Credit Suisse, HSBC, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to work on the IPO.\nCiti and JPMorgan declined to comment and there was no immediate response from the other banks.\nOlam Food Ingredients includes Olam's cocoa, coffee and edible nuts businesses, and Olam Global Agri comprises grains and animal feed, edible oils, rice and cotton, among others.\n($1 = 0.7242 pounds)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179423013,"gmtCreate":1626572698832,"gmtModify":1633925814640,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Multiverses are here.","listText":"Multiverses are here.","text":"Multiverses are 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the clouds","listText":"In the clouds","text":"In the clouds","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155071322","repostId":"2148803897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155073307,"gmtCreate":1625366132410,"gmtModify":1633941236136,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155073307","repostId":"1153929434","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155047952,"gmtCreate":1625365923876,"gmtModify":1633941239215,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be afraid","listText":"Be afraid","text":"Be afraid","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155047952","repostId":"1171891885","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171891885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276733,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171891885?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 wise money moves before the Fed starts raising interest rates again<blockquote>美联储再次开始加息前的5项明智资金举措</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171891885","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) and his colleagues have said the central bank will","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) and his colleagues have said the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for the time being, despite gains made by the U.S. economy in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（如图）及其同事表示，尽管美国经济近几个月有所增长，但美联储将暂时将基准利率维持在接近零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> But rates won’t stay low forever. As the economy recovers from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation is rising and more people are getting back to work. This has led the Fed to indicate a rate hike could come as soon as 2023 — moved up from its previous plan to wait until 2024.</p><p><blockquote>但利率不会永远保持在低位。随着经济从COVID-19大流行最严重的时期中复苏，通货膨胀正在上升，更多的人正在重返工作岗位。这导致美联储表示最早可能在2023年加息——高于此前等到2024年的计划。</blockquote></p><p> For consumers, that means now may be the time tosplurge on a fun purchaseor take out a loan for something they need.</p><p><blockquote>对于消费者来说，这意味着现在可能是花钱购买有趣的买家或贷款购买他们需要的东西的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five money moves you should make before rates rise.</p><p><blockquote>以下是您在利率上升之前应该采取的五项资金举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Refinance your home loan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为您的房屋贷款再融资</b></blockquote></p><p> Mortgage rates fell to record-breaking lows during the pandemic, but they’re slowly creeping up as the economy continues to recover from COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，抵押贷款利率跌至创纪录低点，但随着经济继续从COVID-19中复苏，抵押贷款利率正在缓慢上升。</blockquote></p><p> While rates are currently at historically low levels, experts predict they will rise to 4% this year — which means now's the time to act if you’ve been mulling a refinance.</p><p><blockquote>虽然利率目前处于历史低位，但专家预测今年将升至4%——这意味着如果您一直在考虑再融资，现在是采取行动的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> An estimated 14.1 million Americans have the opportunity to refi andsave an average $287 a month, according to recent research from mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight.</p><p><blockquote>根据抵押贷款技术和数据提供商Black Knight最近的研究，估计有1410万美国人有机会进行再融资，平均每月节省287美元。</blockquote></p><p> Alternatively, rising house prices offer homeowners an opportunity to leverage their home equity to fund home improvement projects, pay down debt or cover their children’s education funds.</p><p><blockquote>或者，房价上涨为房主提供了利用房屋净值为家居装修项目提供资金、偿还债务或支付孩子教育资金的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consolidate your debt</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合并您的债务</b></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic made it difficult for Americans to travel, eat in restaurants or spend on retail purchases, and many used the money they didn't spend on those activities to increase their savings and pay down debt.</p><p><blockquote>疫情使美国人难以旅行、在餐馆吃饭或进行零售购物，许多人用他们没有花在这些活动上的钱来增加储蓄和偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> The number of consumers who paid off their credit card balances in full every month reached an all-time high of 35.1% late last year, according to a report from the American Bankers Association.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国银行家协会的一份报告，去年年底，每月全额还清信用卡余额的消费者数量达到了35.1%的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many households are struggling to make ends meet. And, with unemployment benefits ending in many states across the country, those still out of work or living on reduced incomes may have had to give up their debt repayment plans to focus on immediate needs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多家庭仍在努力维持生计。而且，随着全国许多州失业救济金的结束，那些仍然失业或收入减少的人可能不得不放弃债务偿还计划，专注于眼前的需求。</blockquote></p><p> If you’ve been relying on your credit cards to carry you through, the expensive interest is going to add up quickly.</p><p><blockquote>如果你一直依靠信用卡度过难关，昂贵的利息会很快增加。</blockquote></p><p> For those who can’t borrow from their home equity to pay off card balances, adebt consolidation loancould help you get rid of debt sooner and save you a ton on expensive interest.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些无法从房屋净值中借款来偿还卡余额的人来说，债务合并贷款可以帮助您更快摆脱债务，并为您节省大量昂贵的利息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Work on your credit score</b></p><p><blockquote><b>提高您的信用评分</b></blockquote></p><p> While today's low rates make it easier to take out loans, you'll find it more expensive to borrow when rates do go up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天的低利率使贷款变得更容易，但当利率上升时，你会发现借贷成本更高。</blockquote></p><p> Today, it's easy to take afree peek at your credit score. So now’s the time to work on improving that score to ensure you’ll continue to be able to borrow at the lowest-possible rates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，很容易免费查看您的信用评分。因此，现在是时候努力提高该分数，以确保您能够继续以尽可能低的利率借款。</blockquote></p><p> Boosting your credit scorea few hundred pointswill make you a more attractive borrower to all types of lenders – from credit-card issuers to those offering mortgages.</p><p><blockquote>将您的信用评分提高几百分将使您成为对所有类型贷方（从信用卡发卡机构到提供抵押贷款的机构）更具吸引力的借款人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Refinance your student loans</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为您的学生贷款再融资</b></blockquote></p><p> Federal student loan payments are paused until October but some prominent Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are pushing the president to provide more relief for borrowers and forgive up to $50,000 per person.</p><p><blockquote>联邦学生贷款支付暂停至10月份，但包括参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)在内的一些著名民主党议员正在敦促总统为借款人提供更多救济，并免除每人最多5万美元。</blockquote></p><p> But those with debt from private student loans are still on the hook for their regular monthly minimum payments.</p><p><blockquote>但那些背负私人学生贷款债务的人仍然需要支付每月最低还款额。</blockquote></p><p> If you're one of those borrowers, refinancing to a lower rate or shorter term could save you thousands in interest fees and shave years off your debt.</p><p><blockquote>如果您是这些借款人之一，以较低利率或较短期限进行再融资可以为您节省数千美元的利息费用，并减少数年的债务。</blockquote></p><p> According to online loan marketplace, Credible, refinancing could slash your interest rate by more than 2 full percentage points and add up to substantial interest savings over the life of the loan.</p><p><blockquote>根据在线贷款市场，可信，再融资可以削减你的利率超过2个百分点，并在贷款期限内节省大量利息。</blockquote></p><p> To maximize your savings,compare loan offers from multiple lendersto lock in the lowest refinance rate possible.</p><p><blockquote>为了最大限度地提高您的储蓄，请比较多个贷方的贷款报价，以锁定尽可能低的再融资利率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ride the red-hot stock market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>驾驭火热的股市</b></blockquote></p><p> Current low interest rates mean you won't earn much if you put money in a savings account. If you’ve got the appetite to take on a bit more risk, you could consider putting your money in investments.</p><p><blockquote>目前的低利率意味着如果你把钱存入储蓄账户，你赚不了多少钱。如果您愿意承担更多风险，您可以考虑将资金投入投资。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you don’t have much to put aside, you can download a popular app that allows you toinvest with your “spare change”, and turn your pennies into a diversified portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>即使你没有太多钱可以存，你也可以下载一个流行的应用程序，让你用你的“零钱”进行投资，把你的便士变成一个多元化的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Or, if you’re still apprehensive about the stock market, you could look intoinvesting in farmland. This stable, profitable asset has been known to offer better returns than real estate and stocks, according to data from the investing platform FarmTogether.</p><p><blockquote>或者，如果您仍然对股市感到担忧，您可以考虑投资农田。根据投资平台FarmTogether的数据，众所周知，这种稳定、盈利的资产比房地产和股票提供更好的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 wise money moves before the Fed starts raising interest rates again<blockquote>美联储再次开始加息前的5项明智资金举措</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 wise money moves before the Fed starts raising interest rates again<blockquote>美联储再次开始加息前的5项明智资金举措</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) and his colleagues have said the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for the time being, despite gains made by the U.S. economy in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（如图）及其同事表示，尽管美国经济近几个月有所增长，但美联储将暂时将基准利率维持在接近零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> But rates won’t stay low forever. As the economy recovers from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation is rising and more people are getting back to work. This has led the Fed to indicate a rate hike could come as soon as 2023 — moved up from its previous plan to wait until 2024.</p><p><blockquote>但利率不会永远保持在低位。随着经济从COVID-19大流行最严重的时期中复苏，通货膨胀正在上升，更多的人正在重返工作岗位。这导致美联储表示最早可能在2023年加息——高于此前等到2024年的计划。</blockquote></p><p> For consumers, that means now may be the time tosplurge on a fun purchaseor take out a loan for something they need.</p><p><blockquote>对于消费者来说，这意味着现在可能是花钱购买有趣的买家或贷款购买他们需要的东西的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five money moves you should make before rates rise.</p><p><blockquote>以下是您在利率上升之前应该采取的五项资金举措。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Refinance your home loan</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为您的房屋贷款再融资</b></blockquote></p><p> Mortgage rates fell to record-breaking lows during the pandemic, but they’re slowly creeping up as the economy continues to recover from COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，抵押贷款利率跌至创纪录低点，但随着经济继续从COVID-19中复苏，抵押贷款利率正在缓慢上升。</blockquote></p><p> While rates are currently at historically low levels, experts predict they will rise to 4% this year — which means now's the time to act if you’ve been mulling a refinance.</p><p><blockquote>虽然利率目前处于历史低位，但专家预测今年将升至4%——这意味着如果您一直在考虑再融资，现在是采取行动的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> An estimated 14.1 million Americans have the opportunity to refi andsave an average $287 a month, according to recent research from mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight.</p><p><blockquote>根据抵押贷款技术和数据提供商Black Knight最近的研究，估计有1410万美国人有机会进行再融资，平均每月节省287美元。</blockquote></p><p> Alternatively, rising house prices offer homeowners an opportunity to leverage their home equity to fund home improvement projects, pay down debt or cover their children’s education funds.</p><p><blockquote>或者，房价上涨为房主提供了利用房屋净值为家居装修项目提供资金、偿还债务或支付孩子教育资金的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consolidate your debt</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合并您的债务</b></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic made it difficult for Americans to travel, eat in restaurants or spend on retail purchases, and many used the money they didn't spend on those activities to increase their savings and pay down debt.</p><p><blockquote>疫情使美国人难以旅行、在餐馆吃饭或进行零售购物，许多人用他们没有花在这些活动上的钱来增加储蓄和偿还债务。</blockquote></p><p> The number of consumers who paid off their credit card balances in full every month reached an all-time high of 35.1% late last year, according to a report from the American Bankers Association.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国银行家协会的一份报告，去年年底，每月全额还清信用卡余额的消费者数量达到了35.1%的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Still, many households are struggling to make ends meet. And, with unemployment benefits ending in many states across the country, those still out of work or living on reduced incomes may have had to give up their debt repayment plans to focus on immediate needs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，许多家庭仍在努力维持生计。而且，随着全国许多州失业救济金的结束，那些仍然失业或收入减少的人可能不得不放弃债务偿还计划，专注于眼前的需求。</blockquote></p><p> If you’ve been relying on your credit cards to carry you through, the expensive interest is going to add up quickly.</p><p><blockquote>如果你一直依靠信用卡度过难关，昂贵的利息会很快增加。</blockquote></p><p> For those who can’t borrow from their home equity to pay off card balances, adebt consolidation loancould help you get rid of debt sooner and save you a ton on expensive interest.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些无法从房屋净值中借款来偿还卡余额的人来说，债务合并贷款可以帮助您更快摆脱债务，并为您节省大量昂贵的利息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Work on your credit score</b></p><p><blockquote><b>提高您的信用评分</b></blockquote></p><p> While today's low rates make it easier to take out loans, you'll find it more expensive to borrow when rates do go up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天的低利率使贷款变得更容易，但当利率上升时，你会发现借贷成本更高。</blockquote></p><p> Today, it's easy to take afree peek at your credit score. So now’s the time to work on improving that score to ensure you’ll continue to be able to borrow at the lowest-possible rates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，很容易免费查看您的信用评分。因此，现在是时候努力提高该分数，以确保您能够继续以尽可能低的利率借款。</blockquote></p><p> Boosting your credit scorea few hundred pointswill make you a more attractive borrower to all types of lenders – from credit-card issuers to those offering mortgages.</p><p><blockquote>将您的信用评分提高几百分将使您成为对所有类型贷方（从信用卡发卡机构到提供抵押贷款的机构）更具吸引力的借款人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Refinance your student loans</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为您的学生贷款再融资</b></blockquote></p><p> Federal student loan payments are paused until October but some prominent Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are pushing the president to provide more relief for borrowers and forgive up to $50,000 per person.</p><p><blockquote>联邦学生贷款支付暂停至10月份，但包括参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)在内的一些著名民主党议员正在敦促总统为借款人提供更多救济，并免除每人最多5万美元。</blockquote></p><p> But those with debt from private student loans are still on the hook for their regular monthly minimum payments.</p><p><blockquote>但那些背负私人学生贷款债务的人仍然需要支付每月最低还款额。</blockquote></p><p> If you're one of those borrowers, refinancing to a lower rate or shorter term could save you thousands in interest fees and shave years off your debt.</p><p><blockquote>如果您是这些借款人之一，以较低利率或较短期限进行再融资可以为您节省数千美元的利息费用，并减少数年的债务。</blockquote></p><p> According to online loan marketplace, Credible, refinancing could slash your interest rate by more than 2 full percentage points and add up to substantial interest savings over the life of the loan.</p><p><blockquote>根据在线贷款市场，可信，再融资可以削减你的利率超过2个百分点，并在贷款期限内节省大量利息。</blockquote></p><p> To maximize your savings,compare loan offers from multiple lendersto lock in the lowest refinance rate possible.</p><p><blockquote>为了最大限度地提高您的储蓄，请比较多个贷方的贷款报价，以锁定尽可能低的再融资利率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ride the red-hot stock market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>驾驭火热的股市</b></blockquote></p><p> Current low interest rates mean you won't earn much if you put money in a savings account. If you’ve got the appetite to take on a bit more risk, you could consider putting your money in investments.</p><p><blockquote>目前的低利率意味着如果你把钱存入储蓄账户，你赚不了多少钱。如果您愿意承担更多风险，您可以考虑将资金投入投资。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you don’t have much to put aside, you can download a popular app that allows you toinvest with your “spare change”, and turn your pennies into a diversified portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>即使你没有太多钱可以存，你也可以下载一个流行的应用程序，让你用你的“零钱”进行投资，把你的便士变成一个多元化的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Or, if you’re still apprehensive about the stock market, you could look intoinvesting in farmland. This stable, profitable asset has been known to offer better returns than real estate and stocks, according to data from the investing platform FarmTogether.</p><p><blockquote>或者，如果您仍然对股市感到担忧，您可以考虑投资农田。根据投资平台FarmTogether的数据，众所周知，这种稳定、盈利的资产比房地产和股票提供更好的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-wise-money-moves-fed-160000889.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-wise-money-moves-fed-160000889.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171891885","content_text":"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (pictured) and his colleagues have said the central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for the time being, despite gains made by the U.S. economy in recent months.\nBut rates won’t stay low forever. As the economy recovers from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation is rising and more people are getting back to work. This has led the Fed to indicate a rate hike could come as soon as 2023 — moved up from its previous plan to wait until 2024.\nFor consumers, that means now may be the time tosplurge on a fun purchaseor take out a loan for something they need.\nHere are five money moves you should make before rates rise.\nRefinance your home loan\nMortgage rates fell to record-breaking lows during the pandemic, but they’re slowly creeping up as the economy continues to recover from COVID-19.\nWhile rates are currently at historically low levels, experts predict they will rise to 4% this year — which means now's the time to act if you’ve been mulling a refinance.\nAn estimated 14.1 million Americans have the opportunity to refi andsave an average $287 a month, according to recent research from mortgage technology and data provider Black Knight.\nAlternatively, rising house prices offer homeowners an opportunity to leverage their home equity to fund home improvement projects, pay down debt or cover their children’s education funds.\nConsolidate your debt\nThe pandemic made it difficult for Americans to travel, eat in restaurants or spend on retail purchases, and many used the money they didn't spend on those activities to increase their savings and pay down debt.\nThe number of consumers who paid off their credit card balances in full every month reached an all-time high of 35.1% late last year, according to a report from the American Bankers Association.\nStill, many households are struggling to make ends meet. And, with unemployment benefits ending in many states across the country, those still out of work or living on reduced incomes may have had to give up their debt repayment plans to focus on immediate needs.\nIf you’ve been relying on your credit cards to carry you through, the expensive interest is going to add up quickly.\nFor those who can’t borrow from their home equity to pay off card balances, adebt consolidation loancould help you get rid of debt sooner and save you a ton on expensive interest.\nWork on your credit score\nWhile today's low rates make it easier to take out loans, you'll find it more expensive to borrow when rates do go up.\nToday, it's easy to take afree peek at your credit score. So now’s the time to work on improving that score to ensure you’ll continue to be able to borrow at the lowest-possible rates.\nBoosting your credit scorea few hundred pointswill make you a more attractive borrower to all types of lenders – from credit-card issuers to those offering mortgages.\nRefinance your student loans\nFederal student loan payments are paused until October but some prominent Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are pushing the president to provide more relief for borrowers and forgive up to $50,000 per person.\nBut those with debt from private student loans are still on the hook for their regular monthly minimum payments.\nIf you're one of those borrowers, refinancing to a lower rate or shorter term could save you thousands in interest fees and shave years off your debt.\nAccording to online loan marketplace, Credible, refinancing could slash your interest rate by more than 2 full percentage points and add up to substantial interest savings over the life of the loan.\nTo maximize your savings,compare loan offers from multiple lendersto lock in the lowest refinance rate possible.\nRide the red-hot stock market\nCurrent low interest rates mean you won't earn much if you put money in a savings account. If you’ve got the appetite to take on a bit more risk, you could consider putting your money in investments.\nEven if you don’t have much to put aside, you can download a popular app that allows you toinvest with your “spare change”, and turn your pennies into a diversified portfolio.\nOr, if you’re still apprehensive about the stock market, you could look intoinvesting in farmland. This stable, profitable asset has been known to offer better returns than real estate and stocks, according to data from the investing platform FarmTogether.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155044938,"gmtCreate":1625365849124,"gmtModify":1633941240043,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait","listText":"Wait","text":"Wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155044938","repostId":"1140994998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":179205074,"gmtCreate":1626528070398,"gmtModify":1633926040245,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correction","listText":"Correction","text":"Correction","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179205074","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835069349,"gmtCreate":1629681254981,"gmtModify":1633683292703,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah. Continuity.","listText":"Yeah. Continuity.","text":"Yeah. Continuity.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835069349","repostId":"2161741461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179481136,"gmtCreate":1626571454525,"gmtModify":1633925831729,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Contents contents contents","listText":"Contents contents contents","text":"Contents contents contents","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179481136","repostId":"2152897876","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837999476,"gmtCreate":1629851149095,"gmtModify":1633682003357,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More years.","listText":"More years.","text":"More years.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837999476","repostId":"1167446644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837900732,"gmtCreate":1629850683526,"gmtModify":1633682010937,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow.","listText":"Wow.","text":"Wow.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837900732","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155042293,"gmtCreate":1625365768212,"gmtModify":1633941241666,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay safe","listText":"Stay safe","text":"Stay safe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155042293","repostId":"1188153141","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188153141","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188153141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188153141","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th","content":"<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188153141","content_text":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.\nThat clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.\nAnd a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.\nHere’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.\nWhat does Suze Orman think?\nMediapunch/Shutterstock\nSuze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.\n“I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”\nWhile investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.\nAnd even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.\nWhat's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.\n“This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.\nThe Buffett Indicator\nLarry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock\nOne metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.\nBut the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.\nAnd those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.\nHow to prepare for a crashFreedomz / Shutterstock\nOrman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.\n1. Buy low\nPart of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.\n“All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”\nShe points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.\nBecause you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.\n2. Invest on a schedule\nkatjen / Shutterstock\nWhile she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.\nShe wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.\nIn fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.\n“When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”\nShe suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.\nThis kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.\nThere are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.\n3. Diversify with fractional shares\nTo help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.\nOrman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.\nWith the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.\n“The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”\n“And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”\nWhat else you can do\ngoodluz / Shutterstock\nWhether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.\nFirst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.\nThen, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.\nThat will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.\nIf you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.\nWhile everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811661652,"gmtCreate":1630317645976,"gmtModify":1704958335676,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wrong bet.","listText":"Wrong bet.","text":"Wrong bet.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811661652","repostId":"1179773136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837901632,"gmtCreate":1629850824926,"gmtModify":1633682009236,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally. Afghan for afghans.","listText":"Finally. Afghan for afghans.","text":"Finally. Afghan for afghans.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837901632","repostId":"2162080258","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155071322,"gmtCreate":1625366223466,"gmtModify":1633941235467,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In the clouds","listText":"In the clouds","text":"In the clouds","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155071322","repostId":"2148803897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155044938,"gmtCreate":1625365849124,"gmtModify":1633941240043,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait","listText":"Wait","text":"Wait","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155044938","repostId":"1140994998","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835024293,"gmtCreate":1629681744912,"gmtModify":1633683281577,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes.","listText":"Yes.","text":"Yes.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835024293","repostId":"2161741461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835067316,"gmtCreate":1629681480035,"gmtModify":1633683287097,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835067316","repostId":"2161745814","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894543958,"gmtCreate":1628842707274,"gmtModify":1633689060291,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Food is the new black.","listText":"Food is the new black.","text":"Food is the new black.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894543958","repostId":"1166024136","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166024136","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628837415,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166024136?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 14:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Olam looking to raise about $3 bln via food ingredients London IPO - sources<blockquote>Olam希望通过food ingredients伦敦IPO筹集约30亿美元-消息人士</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166024136","media":"Reuters","summary":"SINGAPORE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Olam International(OLAM.SI), one of the world's biggest agricultural c","content":"<p>SINGAPORE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Olam International(OLAM.SI), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's biggest agricultural commodity traders, is considering raising about 2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) through the IPO of its food ingredients unit in London, which is set to take place next year, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>路透新加坡8月13日-奥兰国际(OLAM.SI)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>知情人士周五告诉路透社，全球最大的农产品贸易商之一，正在考虑通过其食品配料部门定于明年在伦敦进行的首次公开募股筹集约20亿英镑（28亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The company backed by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings (TEM.UL) and Mitsubishi Corp(8058.T)has appointed five global banks on the IPO, which is likely to rank among the biggest such offerings in London in the last few years, the sources said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股(TEM.UL)和三菱商事(8058.T)的支持，已指定五家全球银行进行IPO，这可能是过去几年伦敦最大的此类发行之一，消息人士称。</blockquote></p><p> Olam declined to comment on the fundraising amount but said on Friday that it would seek a primary listing for its food ingredients business in London and a concurrent secondary listing in Singapore by the first half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰拒绝就融资金额置评，但周五表示，将寻求其食品配料业务在伦敦首次上市，并在明年上半年同时在新加坡二次上市。</blockquote></p><p> The listing is part of a restructuring plan flagged last year, under which Olam is splitting its portfolio of diverse products into two new operating businesses as it aims to better position itself to a different set of global investors.</p><p><blockquote>此次上市是去年宣布的重组计划的一部分，根据该计划，奥兰将其多元化产品组合拆分为两个新的运营业务，旨在更好地向不同的全球投资者定位。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> of the sources said Olam had appointed <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>, Credit Suisse, HSBC, JPMorgan and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> to work on the IPO.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>奥兰任命的消息来源<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>、瑞士信贷、汇丰银行、摩根大通和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>致力于首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> Citi and JPMorgan declined to comment and there was no immediate response from the other banks.</p><p><blockquote>花旗和摩根大通拒绝置评，其他银行也没有立即做出回应。</blockquote></p><p> Olam Food Ingredients includes Olam's cocoa, coffee and edible nuts businesses, and Olam Global Agri comprises grains and animal feed, edible oils, rice and cotton, among others.</p><p><blockquote>Olam Food Ingredients包括Olam的可可、咖啡和食用坚果业务，Olam Global Agri包括谷物和动物饲料、食用油、大米和棉花等。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 0.7242 pounds)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=0.7242英镑）</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Olam looking to raise about $3 bln via food ingredients London IPO - sources<blockquote>Olam希望通过food ingredients伦敦IPO筹集约30亿美元-消息人士</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOlam looking to raise about $3 bln via food ingredients London IPO - sources<blockquote>Olam希望通过food ingredients伦敦IPO筹集约30亿美元-消息人士</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 14:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>SINGAPORE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Olam International(OLAM.SI), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the world's biggest agricultural commodity traders, is considering raising about 2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) through the IPO of its food ingredients unit in London, which is set to take place next year, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>路透新加坡8月13日-奥兰国际(OLAM.SI)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>知情人士周五告诉路透社，全球最大的农产品贸易商之一，正在考虑通过其食品配料部门定于明年在伦敦进行的首次公开募股筹集约20亿英镑（28亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> The company backed by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings (TEM.UL) and Mitsubishi Corp(8058.T)has appointed five global banks on the IPO, which is likely to rank among the biggest such offerings in London in the last few years, the sources said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司得到了新加坡国有投资者淡马锡控股(TEM.UL)和三菱商事(8058.T)的支持，已指定五家全球银行进行IPO，这可能是过去几年伦敦最大的此类发行之一，消息人士称。</blockquote></p><p> Olam declined to comment on the fundraising amount but said on Friday that it would seek a primary listing for its food ingredients business in London and a concurrent secondary listing in Singapore by the first half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>奥兰拒绝就融资金额置评，但周五表示，将寻求其食品配料业务在伦敦首次上市，并在明年上半年同时在新加坡二次上市。</blockquote></p><p> The listing is part of a restructuring plan flagged last year, under which Olam is splitting its portfolio of diverse products into two new operating businesses as it aims to better position itself to a different set of global investors.</p><p><blockquote>此次上市是去年宣布的重组计划的一部分，根据该计划，奥兰将其多元化产品组合拆分为两个新的运营业务，旨在更好地向不同的全球投资者定位。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> of the sources said Olam had appointed <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>, Credit Suisse, HSBC, JPMorgan and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> to work on the IPO.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">两个</a>奥兰任命的消息来源<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>、瑞士信贷、汇丰银行、摩根大通和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>致力于首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> Citi and JPMorgan declined to comment and there was no immediate response from the other banks.</p><p><blockquote>花旗和摩根大通拒绝置评，其他银行也没有立即做出回应。</blockquote></p><p> Olam Food Ingredients includes Olam's cocoa, coffee and edible nuts businesses, and Olam Global Agri comprises grains and animal feed, edible oils, rice and cotton, among others.</p><p><blockquote>Olam Food Ingredients包括Olam的可可、咖啡和食用坚果业务，Olam Global Agri包括谷物和动物饲料、食用油、大米和棉花等。</blockquote></p><p> ($1 = 0.7242 pounds)</p><p><blockquote>（1美元=0.7242英镑）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-olam-considering-raising-2-bln-pounds-via-food-ingredients-london-ipo-2021-08-13/\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/exclusive-olam-considering-raising-2-bln-pounds-via-food-ingredients-london-ipo-2021-08-13/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166024136","content_text":"SINGAPORE, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Olam International(OLAM.SI), one of the world's biggest agricultural commodity traders, is considering raising about 2 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) through the IPO of its food ingredients unit in London, which is set to take place next year, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.\nThe company backed by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings (TEM.UL) and Mitsubishi Corp(8058.T)has appointed five global banks on the IPO, which is likely to rank among the biggest such offerings in London in the last few years, the sources said.\nOlam declined to comment on the fundraising amount but said on Friday that it would seek a primary listing for its food ingredients business in London and a concurrent secondary listing in Singapore by the first half of next year.\nThe listing is part of a restructuring plan flagged last year, under which Olam is splitting its portfolio of diverse products into two new operating businesses as it aims to better position itself to a different set of global investors.\nTwo of the sources said Olam had appointed Citigroup, Credit Suisse, HSBC, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley to work on the IPO.\nCiti and JPMorgan declined to comment and there was no immediate response from the other banks.\nOlam Food Ingredients includes Olam's cocoa, coffee and edible nuts businesses, and Olam Global Agri comprises grains and animal feed, edible oils, rice and cotton, among others.\n($1 = 0.7242 pounds)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164491073,"gmtCreate":1624232508792,"gmtModify":1634009306880,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164491073","repostId":"1156696708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813627404,"gmtCreate":1630200234808,"gmtModify":1704956893811,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good prospect.","listText":"Good prospect.","text":"Good prospect.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813627404","repostId":"1190647001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190647001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630069423,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190647001?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 21:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190647001","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWhile most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was appare","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>While most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.</li>  <li>During the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.</li>  <li>The question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b0d1e3cc9b919c60cd62c91975b386\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹，但英特尔显然没有被邀请参加派对。</li><li>在过去的六个月里，英特尔实际上下跌了15%。</li><li>问题仍然是该股是一个价值陷阱还是一个随时会弹出的螺旋弹簧。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.</p><p><blockquote>正如福特汽车公司(F)、卡特彼勒(CAT)和3M公司（3M）等工业巨头在20世纪初通过重大工业创新推动美国（和世界）前进一样，半导体制造商也在推动21世纪的技术革命。</blockquote></p><p> It seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>如今，似乎所有东西都需要芯片，人们面临着让芯片变得更快、更小、更便宜的压力。</blockquote></p><p> That said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹（有充分的理由），但英特尔公司。（INTC）显然没有被邀请参加聚会（或者可能只是太晚了？）.</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，在过去的6个月里，该领域的赢家和输家之间的分歧已经变得相当明显。NVIDIA Corp.(NVDA)和Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)等芯片宠儿分别上涨52.9%和24.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，英特尔下跌14.9%，美光科技(MU)下跌超过20%！</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/197282917802a0c939a75f60ec792487\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we have recently penned our thoughts about&nbsp;Micron,NVIDIA, and&nbsp;Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们最近写下了对美光、NVIDIA和Advanced Micro Devices的想法，但现在也是时候深入挖掘英特尔了。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，尽管行业普遍有利（即芯片需求远远超过供应），但英特尔今年仍面临着相当多的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔有一些有据可查的制造失误，导致了重大延误（并失去了一些市场份额）。这引发了投资者的担忧，即该股现在可能是一个潜在的“价值陷阱”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我绝对相信这位行业资深人士仍然可能是一个准备好的螺旋弹簧，有潜力缩小与一些赢家（如NVDA和AMD）的差距。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我认为我们还没有接近芯片需求的峰值，我相信英特尔的制造能力在未来几年是（并将继续是）该公司的巨大优势。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:</p><p><blockquote>本文的其余部分将对英特尔进行定量研究，以证实我的定性假设，即该股应该从这里开始走高：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>  <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>  <li>Upside Target</li>  <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>  <li>Downside Considerations</li>  <li>Conclusion</li> </ul> <i>Sources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</li><li>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</li><li>上行目标</li><li>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</li><li>不利因素</li><li>结论</li></ul><i>以下所有数据和表格的来源：Option Income Advisor和YCharts</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel Corp.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔公司。</b></blockquote></p><p>   Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors    Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.  <i>(Source:</i>  <i>YCharts</i>  <i>)</i>  <b>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</b></p><p><blockquote>部门/行业：科技/半导体英特尔是全球最大的芯片制造商。它为全球个人电脑和数据中心市场设计和制造微处理器。英特尔开创了微处理器x86架构。它是半导体制造进步摩尔定律的主要支持者，尽管该公司最近面临制造延误。虽然英特尔的服务器处理器业务受益于向云的转变，但随着个人电脑市场停滞不前，该公司也一直在向新的领域扩张。其中包括物联网、人工智能和汽车等领域。英特尔在并购方面一直很活跃，收购了Altera、Mobileye和Habana Labs，以加强这些在非PC领域的努力。<i>（来源：</i><i>YCharts</i><i>)</i><b>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我们对股票的高水平长期投资论点本质上更多的是定量而不是定性。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，英特尔目前在我们的关键长期排名指标中排名非常好：股息(7)、安全性(8)、价值(10)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409ba12610069e477e6973a53eabf653\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>请注意，我们的排名是从1（最低）到10（最高）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>红利</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在过去七年中每年都提高了股息，目前的收益率为2.6%，派息率相当低，为29.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b59d73a44d9e1f67468b8fdd556e45d\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司的年度派息一直在稳步增长，1年、5年和10年复合年增长率分别为4.8%、6.6%和7.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> Up until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>直到2020年，英特尔的销售额和每股收益增长相对稳定。然而，过去一年左右的生产延迟导致销售额和每股收益下降。管理层确实预计2022年和2023年运营将趋于稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ce38e4effa43f86f74784d75217bf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor / YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Option Income Advisor/YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司的资产负债表仍然强劲，拥有250亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的历史股票波动性较低，五年标准差为29%，贝塔值为0.60，这也增加了其相对较高的安全排名。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前的估值最高评级为10。如下表所示，与我们关注的所有4个估值倍数的历史平均水平相比，该公司的交易价格均有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7036b246d6d8630a59b53041a502b8e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Intel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p><p><blockquote>英特尔的股东收益率也非常有吸引力，为8.3%。<i>请注意，股东收益率是回购收益率和股息收益率的组合。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长远观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述数据和我们的各种排名，我们长期看好英特尔。尽管销售额和每股收益刚刚从近期的下跌中开始企稳，但该公司的估值和波动性非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</b></blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对英特尔的打击区为47.00美元至51.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01b1ac65c7cbccb50edf71635ab87c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>正如上面的安全排名分析中所讨论的，英特尔在股票波动性/风险方面的相对排名为正。此外，该股已从近期高点回调超过21%（因此其回调指标也排名为正）。这两个打击区因素都有助于将所需的最低安全裕度保持在5.3%的合理水平。</blockquote></p><p> Also, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，英特尔的下一次每股收益公告还有58天，因此我们短期内无需担心任何每股收益风险。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股的上升趋势已被打破，股价均低于50日移动平均线（蓝线）和200日移动平均线（红线）。也就是说，我们认为该股几天前可能会在52.00美元左右触底，我们将寻找该水平作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322a2276f8f4edb75ed9e614f7a547e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期观点</b></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区47.00美元至51.00美元的高端附近似乎有一些不错的技术支撑，这显然让我们对持有股票感觉相对良好，如果可以的话，可能会在执行区出售额外的现金担保看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Upside Considerations (Target Price)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上行考虑（目标价）</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>尽管42名华尔街分析师中有26名对该股给予“持有”或更低评级，但英特尔的一致目标价仍为63.00美元（较当前水平上涨超过17%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于目前有如此多的分析师处于“持有”或以下，这为未来的一系列升级打开了大门（这通常也伴随着价格目标的上调）。这种催化剂可能是重要的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们也认为，随着公司盈利的稳定，英特尔短期内肯定有一定的利润率扩张空间。</blockquote></p><p> If you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>如果您将每股4.50美元的预期收益仅按15倍计算，则相当于股价为67.50美元（较当前水平上涨超过25%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> Although we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们已经持有该股票，但我们认为现在是增加头寸并利用上涨机会的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> For new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于新投资者来说，我们认为该股在当前水平上确实很有吸引力，建议买入。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25fe478b0167c759cd88403a036f0f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li>  <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>  <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是呈负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英特尔的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是将于21年9月17日到期的9月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca238403b1a39eadf67d5459adca855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>  <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>  <li>Delta &lt; 30</li> </ul> The INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ&lt;30</li></ul>INTC 9月17日52.00美元看跌期权@约0.50美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.3%，安全边际为3.4%，Delta为26。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（52.50美元执行）或更保守（50.00美元执行）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们以0.50美元的价格出售INTC 9月17日52.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取50.00美元的权利金。作为溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以52.00美元的执行价为每份出售的合约购买100股INTC股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在52.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留0.50美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于52.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以52.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是51.50美元（52.00美元-0.50美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在管理三重收入轮时，您应该期望接受5%-10%的现金担保看跌交易的转让（购买股票）。</blockquote></p><p> But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and&nbsp;sell some covered calls on our stock position&nbsp;to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p><p><blockquote>但当这种情况发生时，我们可以进入上图中的第3步，出售我们股票头寸上的一些担保评级，以再次开始收入流动并立即开始降低我们的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英特尔的长期和短期看法，我们认为该股在当前水平上值得买入，但如果您能够以51.50美元的成本基础增加您的英特尔头寸，那将是更大的胜利（并坐下来）当股票上涨时领取股息）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 21:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>While most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.</li>  <li>During the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.</li>  <li>The question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b0d1e3cc9b919c60cd62c91975b386\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹，但英特尔显然没有被邀请参加派对。</li><li>在过去的六个月里，英特尔实际上下跌了15%。</li><li>问题仍然是该股是一个价值陷阱还是一个随时会弹出的螺旋弹簧。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.</p><p><blockquote>正如福特汽车公司(F)、卡特彼勒(CAT)和3M公司（3M）等工业巨头在20世纪初通过重大工业创新推动美国（和世界）前进一样，半导体制造商也在推动21世纪的技术革命。</blockquote></p><p> It seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>如今，似乎所有东西都需要芯片，人们面临着让芯片变得更快、更小、更便宜的压力。</blockquote></p><p> That said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹（有充分的理由），但英特尔公司。（INTC）显然没有被邀请参加聚会（或者可能只是太晚了？）.</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，在过去的6个月里，该领域的赢家和输家之间的分歧已经变得相当明显。NVIDIA Corp.(NVDA)和Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)等芯片宠儿分别上涨52.9%和24.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，英特尔下跌14.9%，美光科技(MU)下跌超过20%！</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/197282917802a0c939a75f60ec792487\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we have recently penned our thoughts about&nbsp;Micron,NVIDIA, and&nbsp;Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们最近写下了对美光、NVIDIA和Advanced Micro Devices的想法，但现在也是时候深入挖掘英特尔了。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，尽管行业普遍有利（即芯片需求远远超过供应），但英特尔今年仍面临着相当多的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔有一些有据可查的制造失误，导致了重大延误（并失去了一些市场份额）。这引发了投资者的担忧，即该股现在可能是一个潜在的“价值陷阱”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我绝对相信这位行业资深人士仍然可能是一个准备好的螺旋弹簧，有潜力缩小与一些赢家（如NVDA和AMD）的差距。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我认为我们还没有接近芯片需求的峰值，我相信英特尔的制造能力在未来几年是（并将继续是）该公司的巨大优势。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:</p><p><blockquote>本文的其余部分将对英特尔进行定量研究，以证实我的定性假设，即该股应该从这里开始走高：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>  <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>  <li>Upside Target</li>  <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>  <li>Downside Considerations</li>  <li>Conclusion</li> </ul> <i>Sources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</li><li>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</li><li>上行目标</li><li>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</li><li>不利因素</li><li>结论</li></ul><i>以下所有数据和表格的来源：Option Income Advisor和YCharts</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel Corp.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔公司。</b></blockquote></p><p>   Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors    Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.  <i>(Source:</i>  <i>YCharts</i>  <i>)</i>  <b>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</b></p><p><blockquote>部门/行业：科技/半导体英特尔是全球最大的芯片制造商。它为全球个人电脑和数据中心市场设计和制造微处理器。英特尔开创了微处理器x86架构。它是半导体制造进步摩尔定律的主要支持者，尽管该公司最近面临制造延误。虽然英特尔的服务器处理器业务受益于向云的转变，但随着个人电脑市场停滞不前，该公司也一直在向新的领域扩张。其中包括物联网、人工智能和汽车等领域。英特尔在并购方面一直很活跃，收购了Altera、Mobileye和Habana Labs，以加强这些在非PC领域的努力。<i>（来源：</i><i>YCharts</i><i>)</i><b>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我们对股票的高水平长期投资论点本质上更多的是定量而不是定性。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，英特尔目前在我们的关键长期排名指标中排名非常好：股息(7)、安全性(8)、价值(10)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409ba12610069e477e6973a53eabf653\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>请注意，我们的排名是从1（最低）到10（最高）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>红利</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在过去七年中每年都提高了股息，目前的收益率为2.6%，派息率相当低，为29.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b59d73a44d9e1f67468b8fdd556e45d\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司的年度派息一直在稳步增长，1年、5年和10年复合年增长率分别为4.8%、6.6%和7.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> Up until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>直到2020年，英特尔的销售额和每股收益增长相对稳定。然而，过去一年左右的生产延迟导致销售额和每股收益下降。管理层确实预计2022年和2023年运营将趋于稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ce38e4effa43f86f74784d75217bf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor / YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Option Income Advisor/YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司的资产负债表仍然强劲，拥有250亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的历史股票波动性较低，五年标准差为29%，贝塔值为0.60，这也增加了其相对较高的安全排名。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前的估值最高评级为10。如下表所示，与我们关注的所有4个估值倍数的历史平均水平相比，该公司的交易价格均有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7036b246d6d8630a59b53041a502b8e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Intel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p><p><blockquote>英特尔的股东收益率也非常有吸引力，为8.3%。<i>请注意，股东收益率是回购收益率和股息收益率的组合。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长远观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述数据和我们的各种排名，我们长期看好英特尔。尽管销售额和每股收益刚刚从近期的下跌中开始企稳，但该公司的估值和波动性非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</b></blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对英特尔的打击区为47.00美元至51.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01b1ac65c7cbccb50edf71635ab87c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>正如上面的安全排名分析中所讨论的，英特尔在股票波动性/风险方面的相对排名为正。此外，该股已从近期高点回调超过21%（因此其回调指标也排名为正）。这两个打击区因素都有助于将所需的最低安全裕度保持在5.3%的合理水平。</blockquote></p><p> Also, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，英特尔的下一次每股收益公告还有58天，因此我们短期内无需担心任何每股收益风险。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股的上升趋势已被打破，股价均低于50日移动平均线（蓝线）和200日移动平均线（红线）。也就是说，我们认为该股几天前可能会在52.00美元左右触底，我们将寻找该水平作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322a2276f8f4edb75ed9e614f7a547e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期观点</b></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区47.00美元至51.00美元的高端附近似乎有一些不错的技术支撑，这显然让我们对持有股票感觉相对良好，如果可以的话，可能会在执行区出售额外的现金担保看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Upside Considerations (Target Price)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上行考虑（目标价）</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>尽管42名华尔街分析师中有26名对该股给予“持有”或更低评级，但英特尔的一致目标价仍为63.00美元（较当前水平上涨超过17%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于目前有如此多的分析师处于“持有”或以下，这为未来的一系列升级打开了大门（这通常也伴随着价格目标的上调）。这种催化剂可能是重要的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们也认为，随着公司盈利的稳定，英特尔短期内肯定有一定的利润率扩张空间。</blockquote></p><p> If you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>如果您将每股4.50美元的预期收益仅按15倍计算，则相当于股价为67.50美元（较当前水平上涨超过25%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> Although we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们已经持有该股票，但我们认为现在是增加头寸并利用上涨机会的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> For new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于新投资者来说，我们认为该股在当前水平上确实很有吸引力，建议买入。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25fe478b0167c759cd88403a036f0f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li>  <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>  <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是呈负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英特尔的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是将于21年9月17日到期的9月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca238403b1a39eadf67d5459adca855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>  <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>  <li>Delta &lt; 30</li> </ul> The INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ&lt;30</li></ul>INTC 9月17日52.00美元看跌期权@约0.50美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.3%，安全边际为3.4%，Delta为26。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（52.50美元执行）或更保守（50.00美元执行）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们以0.50美元的价格出售INTC 9月17日52.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取50.00美元的权利金。作为溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以52.00美元的执行价为每份出售的合约购买100股INTC股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在52.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留0.50美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于52.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以52.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是51.50美元（52.00美元-0.50美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在管理三重收入轮时，您应该期望接受5%-10%的现金担保看跌交易的转让（购买股票）。</blockquote></p><p> But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and&nbsp;sell some covered calls on our stock position&nbsp;to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p><p><blockquote>但当这种情况发生时，我们可以进入上图中的第3步，出售我们股票头寸上的一些担保评级，以再次开始收入流动并立即开始降低我们的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英特尔的长期和短期看法，我们认为该股在当前水平上值得买入，但如果您能够以51.50美元的成本基础增加您的英特尔头寸，那将是更大的胜利（并坐下来）当股票上涨时领取股息）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452025-intel-value-trap-or-buy-the-dip\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452025-intel-value-trap-or-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190647001","content_text":"Summary\n\nWhile most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.\nDuring the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.\nThe question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.\n\nNodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images\nJust as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.\nIt seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.\nThat said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).\nAs shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.\nMeanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!\nData by YCharts\nWhile we have recently penned our thoughts about Micron,NVIDIA, and Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.\nTo be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).\nSpecifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.\nAll that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).\nPersonally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.\nThe rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nUpside Target\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nDownside Considerations\nConclusion\n\nSources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts\nIntel Corp.\n\n Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors\n\n\n Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.\n (Source:\nYCharts\n)\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nIn general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.\nThat said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)\nNote that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).\nDividend\nIntel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.\n\nIn addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.\nSafety\nUp until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.\nSource: Option Income Advisor / YCharts\nThat said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.\nIntel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.\nValuation\nIntel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.\n\nIntel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.\nLong-Term View\nBased on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.\n\nAs discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.\nAlso, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.\n\nShort-Term View\nThere appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.\nUpside Considerations (Target Price)\nDespite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).\nAlso, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.\nThat said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.\nIf you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nAlthough we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.\nFor new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nWe have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).Please listen to the video above for further details.\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.\nIf the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).\nAll that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.\nBut when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837992008,"gmtCreate":1629851343204,"gmtModify":1633681999443,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Higher and higher.","listText":"Higher and higher.","text":"Higher and higher.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837992008","repostId":"1118026600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837907228,"gmtCreate":1629851046764,"gmtModify":1633682004753,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Consistent.","listText":"Consistent.","text":"Consistent.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837907228","repostId":"2161081224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835026822,"gmtCreate":1629681672666,"gmtModify":1633683284003,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great.","listText":"Great.","text":"Great.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835026822","repostId":"1192930157","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835021375,"gmtCreate":1629681618197,"gmtModify":1633683284951,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great.","listText":"Great.","text":"Great.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835021375","repostId":"1192930157","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179423013,"gmtCreate":1626572698832,"gmtModify":1633925814640,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Multiverses are here.","listText":"Multiverses are here.","text":"Multiverses are here.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179423013","repostId":"2151892500","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}