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2021-09-21

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2021-09-20

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Nike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce和其他本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-09-19

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2021-09-11

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Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>

2021-09-08

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Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-05

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2021-09-05

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2021-09-02

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2021-09-01

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2021-09-01

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2021-08-25

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U.S. approves licenses for Huawei to buy auto chips - sources<blockquote>美国批准华为购买汽车芯片的许可证——消息人士</blockquote>

2021-08-23

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2021-08-12

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2021-08-05

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2021-08-04

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Most of Chinese stocks rally in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>

2021-08-03

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Google sets all-time records as search and YouTube profits soar<blockquote>随着搜索和YouTube利润飙升，谷歌创下历史纪录</blockquote>

2021-08-02

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2021-07-28

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2021-07-26

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2021-07-26

because asian stocks move too slowly

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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860939977","repostId":"1194891884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194891884","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632091615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194891884?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 06:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce和其他本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194891884","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also","content":"<p>The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.</p><p><blockquote>本周重头戏将是美联储9月政策会议。投资者还将关注几家公司的财报发布、投资者日和最新的经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report&nbsp;on Thursday. Investor days this week include&nbsp;Biogen on Tuesday,&nbsp;Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and&nbsp;Salesforce.com on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar将于周一公布季度收益，随后Adobe、AutoZone和FedEx将于周二公布业绩。通用磨坊周三上市，然后耐克、埃森哲、好市多批发和达顿餐厅周四上市。本周的投资者日包括周二的Biogen、周三的Weyerhaeuser和周四的Salesforce。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely&nbsp;to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s&nbsp;press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely&nbsp;watched.</p><p><blockquote>美联储货币政策委员会将于本周周二和周三召开会议。央行不太可能改变其目标利率区间，但可能会更新其开始减少每月资产购买的计划。周三下午美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’&nbsp;existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会8月份领先经济指数。美国房地产市场还将发布多项更新，包括周一全国住宅建筑商协会9月份住房市场指数、周二人口普查局8月份新住宅建设数据以及全国房地产经纪人协会现房销售数据。周三八月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar报告2021财年第三季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Merck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司在欧洲肿瘤内科学会2021年大会上展示了其癌症药物组合的数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了9月份的房地产市场指数。经济学家预测为73，比8月份的数据低两个百分点，这是一年多来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/21</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe、AutoZone和FedEx发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.</p><p><blockquote>百健(Biogen)举办投资者日活动，讨论其神经科学治疗产品线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>八月份新住宅建设报告。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为155万套，比7月份的水平高出1%。新屋开工量较今年3月达到的金融危机后172.5万套的峰值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/22星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The FOMC announces</b>&nbsp;its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>FOMC宣布</b>它的货币政策决定。美联储可能会将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平不变，但可能会暗示将在今年晚些时候削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> General Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.</p><p><blockquote>通用磨坊公布2022财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Boston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and&nbsp;Yum China Holdings&nbsp;host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿科学、惠好和百胜中国控股举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TheBank of Japan</b>&nbsp;announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b>日本银行</b>宣布其货币政策决定。市场普遍预计日本央行将把关键短期利率维持在负0.1%不变，因为由于Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株，东京都和其他地区在9月底之前仍处于紧急状态。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5%&nbsp;from July’s 599,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告8月份现房销售情况。预计经季节调整后的房屋销售量为578,000套，比7月份的599,000套下降3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/23</b></blockquote></p><p> Accenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Accenture、Costco Wholesale、Darden Restaurants和Nike在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com举办2021年投资者日。首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫和Slack首席执行官斯图尔特·巴特菲尔德将是参与者之一。Salesforce今年夏天完成了对Slack的280亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布8月份领先经济指数。经济学家预测环比增长0.5%，7月份增长0.9%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计2021年国内生产总值增长6%，2022年增长4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/24</b></blockquote></p><p> Kansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司召开特别股东大会，就与加拿大太平洋铁路公司的合并提案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce和其他本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Costco, FedEx, Salesforce, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、好市多、联邦快递、Salesforce和其他本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 06:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.</p><p><blockquote>本周重头戏将是美联储9月政策会议。投资者还将关注几家公司的财报发布、投资者日和最新的经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report&nbsp;on Thursday. Investor days this week include&nbsp;Biogen on Tuesday,&nbsp;Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and&nbsp;Salesforce.com on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar将于周一公布季度收益，随后Adobe、AutoZone和FedEx将于周二公布业绩。通用磨坊周三上市，然后耐克、埃森哲、好市多批发和达顿餐厅周四上市。本周的投资者日包括周二的Biogen、周三的Weyerhaeuser和周四的Salesforce。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely&nbsp;to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s&nbsp;press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely&nbsp;watched.</p><p><blockquote>美联储货币政策委员会将于本周周二和周三召开会议。央行不太可能改变其目标利率区间，但可能会更新其开始减少每月资产购买的计划。周三下午美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会将受到密切关注。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’&nbsp;existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括周四公布的世界大型企业联合会8月份领先经济指数。美国房地产市场还将发布多项更新，包括周一全国住宅建筑商协会9月份住房市场指数、周二人口普查局8月份新住宅建设数据以及全国房地产经纪人协会现房销售数据。周三八月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Lennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.</p><p><blockquote>Lennar报告2021财年第三季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Merck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司在欧洲肿瘤内科学会2021年大会上展示了其癌症药物组合的数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了9月份的房地产市场指数。经济学家预测为73，比8月份的数据低两个百分点，这是一年多来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/21</b></blockquote></p><p> Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe、AutoZone和FedEx发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.</p><p><blockquote>百健(Biogen)举办投资者日活动，讨论其神经科学治疗产品线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>八月份新住宅建设报告。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新屋开工年率为155万套，比7月份的水平高出1%。新屋开工量较今年3月达到的金融危机后172.5万套的峰值有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/22星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The FOMC announces</b>&nbsp;its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.</p><p><blockquote><b>FOMC宣布</b>它的货币政策决定。美联储可能会将联邦基金利率维持在接近零的水平不变，但可能会暗示将在今年晚些时候削减资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> General Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.</p><p><blockquote>通用磨坊公布2022财年第一季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Boston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and&nbsp;Yum China Holdings&nbsp;host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>波士顿科学、惠好和百胜中国控股举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TheBank of Japan</b>&nbsp;announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b>日本银行</b>宣布其货币政策决定。市场普遍预计日本央行将把关键短期利率维持在负0.1%不变，因为由于Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株，东京都和其他地区在9月底之前仍处于紧急状态。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b>&nbsp;of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5%&nbsp;from July’s 599,000.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告8月份现房销售情况。预计经季节调整后的房屋销售量为578,000套，比7月份的599,000套下降3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/23</b></blockquote></p><p> Accenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Accenture、Costco Wholesale、Darden Restaurants和Nike在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com举办2021年投资者日。首席执行官马克·贝尼奥夫和Slack首席执行官斯图尔特·巴特菲尔德将是参与者之一。Salesforce今年夏天完成了对Slack的280亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b>&nbsp;releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布8月份领先经济指数。经济学家预测环比增长0.5%，7月份增长0.9%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计2021年国内生产总值增长6%，2022年增长4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/24</b></blockquote></p><p> Kansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司召开特别股东大会，就与加拿大太平洋铁路公司的合并提案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-costco-fedex-salesforce-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51632078208?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FDX":"联邦快递","COST":"好市多",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CRM":"赛富时","NKE":"耐克",".DJI":"道琼斯","ADBE":"Adobe",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-costco-fedex-salesforce-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51632078208?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194891884","content_text":"The main event this week will be the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Investors will also be watching for several corporate earnings releases, investor days, and the latest economic data.\nLennar reports quarterly earnings on Monday, followed by results from Adobe, AutoZone, and FedEx on Tuesday. General Mills goes on Wednesday, then Nike, Accenture, Costco Wholesale, and Darden Restaurants report on Thursday. Investor days this week include Biogen on Tuesday, Weyerhaeuser on Wednesday, and Salesforce.com on Thursday.\nThe Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The central bank is unlikely to change its target interest rate range, but could give an update on its plans to begin reducing its monthly asset purchases. Wednesday afternoon’s press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched.\nEconomic data out this week include the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for August on Thursday. There will also be several updates on the U.S. housing market including the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index for September on Monday, the Census Bureau’s new residential construction data for August on Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home sales for August on Wednesday.\nMonday 9/20\nLennar reports third-quarter fiscal-2021 results.\nMerck presents data on its portfolio of cancer drugs, in conjunction with the European Society for Medical Oncology’s 2021 Congress.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index for September. Economists forecast a 73 reading, two points below August’s figure, which was the lowest in more than a year.\nTuesday 9/21\nAdobe, AutoZone, and FedEx release earnings.\nBiogen hosts an investor day to discuss its pipeline of neuroscience therapeutics.\nThe Census Bureau reports on new residential construction for August. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.55 million housing starts, 1% higher than the July level. Housing starts are down from their post–financial crisis peak of 1.725 million, reached in March of this year.\nWednesday 9/22\nThe FOMC announces its monetary-policy decision. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at near zero, but might signal that it will pare its asset purchases later this year.\nGeneral Mills reports first-quarter fiscal-2022 results.\nBoston Scientific,Weyerhaeuser, and Yum China Holdings host their 2021 investor days.\nTheBank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The BOJ is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1%, as Tokyo and other regions remain in a state of emergency through the end of September due to the Covid-19 Delta variant.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for August. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 578,000 homes sold, down 3.5% from July’s 599,000.\nThursday 9/23\nAccenture, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss their quarterly results.\nSalesforce.com holds its 2021 investor day. CEO Marc Benioff and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield will be among the participants. Salesforce completed its $28 billion acquisition of Slack this summer.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for August. Economists forecast a 0.5% month-over-month rise, after a 0.9% increase in July. The Conference Board currently projects 6% gross-domestic-product growth for 2021, and 4% for 2022.\nFriday 9/24\nKansas City Southernhosts a special shareholder meeting to vote on a proposed merger withCanadian Pacific Railway.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"NKE":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"CRM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"COST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887595292,"gmtCreate":1632060207916,"gmtModify":1632803084912,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887595292","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881240734,"gmtCreate":1631350394728,"gmtModify":1631889871031,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881240734","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880855586,"gmtCreate":1631039007645,"gmtModify":1631889871034,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880855586","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814433437,"gmtCreate":1630856435829,"gmtModify":1631889871035,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814433437","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814497854,"gmtCreate":1630856009978,"gmtModify":1631889871047,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!","listText":"Pls like!","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814497854","repostId":"2164803577","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812883894,"gmtCreate":1630573140318,"gmtModify":1631889871043,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like!&nbsp;","listText":"pls like!&nbsp;","text":"pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812883894","repostId":"2164898846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816522207,"gmtCreate":1630508330909,"gmtModify":1631889871051,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816522207","repostId":"2164187628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816522151,"gmtCreate":1630508317573,"gmtModify":1631891793016,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816522151","repostId":"2164180358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837318055,"gmtCreate":1629856847877,"gmtModify":1631891793017,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like!","listText":"pls like!","text":"pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837318055","repostId":"1115060367","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115060367","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629855417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115060367?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-25 09:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"U.S. approves licenses for Huawei to buy auto chips - sources<blockquote>美国批准华为购买汽车芯片的许可证——消息人士</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115060367","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - U.S. officials have approved license applications worth hundreds of millions of dollars ","content":"<p>(Reuters) - U.S. officials have approved license applications worth hundreds of millions of dollars for China's blacklisted telecom company Huawei to buy chips for its growing auto component business, two people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-两位知情人士称，美国官员已批准被列入黑名单的中国电信公司华为价值数亿美元的许可证申请，为其不断增长的汽车零部件业务购买芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Huawei, the world's largest telecommunications equipment maker, has been hobbled by trade restrictions&nbsp;imposed by the Trump administration on the sale of chips and other components used in its network gear and smartphones businesses. The Biden administration has been reinforcing the hard line&nbsp;on exports to Huawei, denying licenses to sell chips to Huawei for use in or with 5g devices.</p><p><blockquote>全球最大的电信设备制造商华为因特朗普政府对其网络设备和智能手机业务中使用的芯片和其他组件销售实施的贸易限制而陷入困境。拜登政府一直在强化对华为出口的强硬路线，拒绝向华为出售用于5g设备或与5g设备一起使用的芯片的许可。</blockquote></p><p> But in recent weeks and months, people familiar with the application process told Reuters the U.S. has granted licenses authorizing suppliers to sell chips to Huawei for such vehicle components as video screens and sensors. The approvals come as Huawei pivots its business toward items that are less susceptible to U.S. trade bans.</p><p><blockquote>但最近几周和几个月，熟悉申请流程的人士告诉路透社，美国已授予许可证，授权供应商向华为出售视频屏幕和传感器等汽车零部件的芯片。这些批准是在华为将业务转向不太容易受到美国贸易禁令影响的产品之际进行的。</blockquote></p><p> Auto chips are generally not considered sophisticated, lowering the bar for approval. One person close to the license approvals said the government is granting licenses for chips in vehicles that may have other components with 5g capability.</p><p><blockquote>汽车芯片通常不被认为是复杂的，降低了批准的门槛。一位接近许可审批的人士表示，政府正在为可能具有5g功能的其他组件的车辆芯片发放许可。</blockquote></p><p> Asked about the automotive licenses, a U.S. Department of Commerce spokesperson said the government continues to consistently apply licensing policies \"to restrict Huawei's access to commodities, software, or technology for activities that could harm U.S. national security and foreign policy interests.\"</p><p><blockquote>当被问及汽车执照时，一名美国人。商务部发言人表示，政府继续一贯实施许可政策，“限制华为获取商品、软件或技术，从事可能损害美国国家安全和外交政策利益的活动”。</blockquote></p><p> The Commerce Department is prohibited from disclosing license approvals or denials, the person added.</p><p><blockquote>该人士补充说，商务部被禁止披露许可证批准或拒绝。</blockquote></p><p> A Huawei spokeswoman declined to comment on the licenses, but said: \"We are positioning ourselves as a new component provider for intelligent connected vehicles, and our aim is to help car OEMs (manufacturers) build better vehicles.\"</p><p><blockquote>华为发言人拒绝就这些许可证发表评论，但表示：“我们将自己定位为智能网联汽车的新零部件提供商，我们的目标是帮助汽车OEM（制造商）制造更好的汽车。”</blockquote></p><p> Citing threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests, the U.S. has gone to great lengths to slow the growth of Huawei's key communications-related business.</p><p><blockquote>美国以威胁美国国家安全和外交政策利益为由，不遗余力地减缓华为关键通信相关业务的增长。</blockquote></p><p> After placing Huawei on a U.S. Commerce Department trade blacklist in 2019, which banned sales of U.S. goods and technology to the company without special licenses, the U.S. last year ratcheted up restrictions to limit the sale of chips made abroad with U.S. equipment. It also campaigned to get allies to exclude Huawei from their 5G networks over spying concerns. Huawei has denied the allegations.</p><p><blockquote>继2019年将华为列入美国商务部贸易黑名单，禁止在没有特殊许可证的情况下向该公司销售美国商品和技术后，美国去年加大了限制力度，限制销售使用美国设备在国外制造的芯片。它还发起运动，让盟友出于间谍活动的担忧将华为排除在其5G网络之外。华为否认了这些指控。</blockquote></p><p> Huawei reported its biggest ever revenue drop in the first half of 2021, after the U.S. restrictions drove it to sell a chunk of its once-dominant handset business and before new growth areas have fully matured.</p><p><blockquote>华为报告称，2021年上半年营收出现有史以来最大降幅，此前美国的限制措施迫使其出售了大部分曾经占据主导地位的手机业务，而且在新的增长领域完全成熟之前。</blockquote></p><p> Underscoring the shift into smart cars, the company's rotating chairman Eric Xu announced pacts with three state-owned Chinese carmakers, including BAIC Group, to supply \"Huawei Inside\", a smart vehicle operating system, at the Shanghai Auto Show earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司轮值董事长徐在今年早些时候的上海车展上宣布与包括北汽集团在内的三家中国国有汽车制造商达成协议，为智能汽车操作系统“Huawei Inside”供货，这突显了向智能汽车的转变。</blockquote></p><p> In another sign of Huawei's ambition in the space, after suppliers have received licenses authorizing the sale of tens of millions of dollars of chips to Huawei, the company has requested they apply again and request higher values such as one or two billion, one source said. Licenses are generally good for four years.</p><p><blockquote>一位消息人士称，华为在该领域雄心的另一个迹象是，在供应商获得授权向华为出售数千万美元芯片的许可证后，该公司要求他们再次申请，并要求更高的价值，如10亿或20亿美元。执照一般有效期为四年。</blockquote></p><p> Richard Barnett, chief marketing officer at a global electronics consultancy called Supply Frame, said Huawei is in the \"early innings\" of trying to invest in the $5 trillion automotive market that has large potential growth both inside and outside of China.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子咨询公司Supply Frame的首席营销官理查德·巴尼特(Richard Barnett)表示，华为正处于试图投资价值5万亿美元的汽车市场的“早期阶段”，该市场在中国国内外都具有巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Cars and trucks are now computers on wheels,\" said Barnett, \"That convergence is what's driving Huawei's strategic focus to be a bigger player in that area.\"</p><p><blockquote>“汽车和卡车现在是轮子上的计算机，”巴尼特说，“这种融合推动了华为的战略重点，成为该领域的更大参与者。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. approves licenses for Huawei to buy auto chips - sources<blockquote>美国批准华为购买汽车芯片的许可证——消息人士</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. approves licenses for Huawei to buy auto chips - sources<blockquote>美国批准华为购买汽车芯片的许可证——消息人士</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 09:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - U.S. officials have approved license applications worth hundreds of millions of dollars for China's blacklisted telecom company Huawei to buy chips for its growing auto component business, two people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-两位知情人士称，美国官员已批准被列入黑名单的中国电信公司华为价值数亿美元的许可证申请，为其不断增长的汽车零部件业务购买芯片。</blockquote></p><p> Huawei, the world's largest telecommunications equipment maker, has been hobbled by trade restrictions&nbsp;imposed by the Trump administration on the sale of chips and other components used in its network gear and smartphones businesses. The Biden administration has been reinforcing the hard line&nbsp;on exports to Huawei, denying licenses to sell chips to Huawei for use in or with 5g devices.</p><p><blockquote>全球最大的电信设备制造商华为因特朗普政府对其网络设备和智能手机业务中使用的芯片和其他组件销售实施的贸易限制而陷入困境。拜登政府一直在强化对华为出口的强硬路线，拒绝向华为出售用于5g设备或与5g设备一起使用的芯片的许可。</blockquote></p><p> But in recent weeks and months, people familiar with the application process told Reuters the U.S. has granted licenses authorizing suppliers to sell chips to Huawei for such vehicle components as video screens and sensors. The approvals come as Huawei pivots its business toward items that are less susceptible to U.S. trade bans.</p><p><blockquote>但最近几周和几个月，熟悉申请流程的人士告诉路透社，美国已授予许可证，授权供应商向华为出售视频屏幕和传感器等汽车零部件的芯片。这些批准是在华为将业务转向不太容易受到美国贸易禁令影响的产品之际进行的。</blockquote></p><p> Auto chips are generally not considered sophisticated, lowering the bar for approval. One person close to the license approvals said the government is granting licenses for chips in vehicles that may have other components with 5g capability.</p><p><blockquote>汽车芯片通常不被认为是复杂的，降低了批准的门槛。一位接近许可审批的人士表示，政府正在为可能具有5g功能的其他组件的车辆芯片发放许可。</blockquote></p><p> Asked about the automotive licenses, a U.S. Department of Commerce spokesperson said the government continues to consistently apply licensing policies \"to restrict Huawei's access to commodities, software, or technology for activities that could harm U.S. national security and foreign policy interests.\"</p><p><blockquote>当被问及汽车执照时，一名美国人。商务部发言人表示，政府继续一贯实施许可政策，“限制华为获取商品、软件或技术，从事可能损害美国国家安全和外交政策利益的活动”。</blockquote></p><p> The Commerce Department is prohibited from disclosing license approvals or denials, the person added.</p><p><blockquote>该人士补充说，商务部被禁止披露许可证批准或拒绝。</blockquote></p><p> A Huawei spokeswoman declined to comment on the licenses, but said: \"We are positioning ourselves as a new component provider for intelligent connected vehicles, and our aim is to help car OEMs (manufacturers) build better vehicles.\"</p><p><blockquote>华为发言人拒绝就这些许可证发表评论，但表示：“我们将自己定位为智能网联汽车的新零部件提供商，我们的目标是帮助汽车OEM（制造商）制造更好的汽车。”</blockquote></p><p> Citing threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests, the U.S. has gone to great lengths to slow the growth of Huawei's key communications-related business.</p><p><blockquote>美国以威胁美国国家安全和外交政策利益为由，不遗余力地减缓华为关键通信相关业务的增长。</blockquote></p><p> After placing Huawei on a U.S. Commerce Department trade blacklist in 2019, which banned sales of U.S. goods and technology to the company without special licenses, the U.S. last year ratcheted up restrictions to limit the sale of chips made abroad with U.S. equipment. It also campaigned to get allies to exclude Huawei from their 5G networks over spying concerns. Huawei has denied the allegations.</p><p><blockquote>继2019年将华为列入美国商务部贸易黑名单，禁止在没有特殊许可证的情况下向该公司销售美国商品和技术后，美国去年加大了限制力度，限制销售使用美国设备在国外制造的芯片。它还发起运动，让盟友出于间谍活动的担忧将华为排除在其5G网络之外。华为否认了这些指控。</blockquote></p><p> Huawei reported its biggest ever revenue drop in the first half of 2021, after the U.S. restrictions drove it to sell a chunk of its once-dominant handset business and before new growth areas have fully matured.</p><p><blockquote>华为报告称，2021年上半年营收出现有史以来最大降幅，此前美国的限制措施迫使其出售了大部分曾经占据主导地位的手机业务，而且在新的增长领域完全成熟之前。</blockquote></p><p> Underscoring the shift into smart cars, the company's rotating chairman Eric Xu announced pacts with three state-owned Chinese carmakers, including BAIC Group, to supply \"Huawei Inside\", a smart vehicle operating system, at the Shanghai Auto Show earlier this year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司轮值董事长徐在今年早些时候的上海车展上宣布与包括北汽集团在内的三家中国国有汽车制造商达成协议，为智能汽车操作系统“Huawei Inside”供货，这突显了向智能汽车的转变。</blockquote></p><p> In another sign of Huawei's ambition in the space, after suppliers have received licenses authorizing the sale of tens of millions of dollars of chips to Huawei, the company has requested they apply again and request higher values such as one or two billion, one source said. Licenses are generally good for four years.</p><p><blockquote>一位消息人士称，华为在该领域雄心的另一个迹象是，在供应商获得授权向华为出售数千万美元芯片的许可证后，该公司要求他们再次申请，并要求更高的价值，如10亿或20亿美元。执照一般有效期为四年。</blockquote></p><p> Richard Barnett, chief marketing officer at a global electronics consultancy called Supply Frame, said Huawei is in the \"early innings\" of trying to invest in the $5 trillion automotive market that has large potential growth both inside and outside of China.</p><p><blockquote>全球电子咨询公司Supply Frame的首席营销官理查德·巴尼特(Richard Barnett)表示，华为正处于试图投资价值5万亿美元的汽车市场的“早期阶段”，该市场在中国国内外都具有巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Cars and trucks are now computers on wheels,\" said Barnett, \"That convergence is what's driving Huawei's strategic focus to be a bigger player in that area.\"</p><p><blockquote>“汽车和卡车现在是轮子上的计算机，”巴尼特说，“这种融合推动了华为的战略重点，成为该领域的更大参与者。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-approves-licenses-huawei-010549866.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-u-approves-licenses-huawei-010549866.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115060367","content_text":"(Reuters) - U.S. officials have approved license applications worth hundreds of millions of dollars for China's blacklisted telecom company Huawei to buy chips for its growing auto component business, two people familiar with the matter said.\nHuawei, the world's largest telecommunications equipment maker, has been hobbled by trade restrictions imposed by the Trump administration on the sale of chips and other components used in its network gear and smartphones businesses. The Biden administration has been reinforcing the hard line on exports to Huawei, denying licenses to sell chips to Huawei for use in or with 5g devices.\nBut in recent weeks and months, people familiar with the application process told Reuters the U.S. has granted licenses authorizing suppliers to sell chips to Huawei for such vehicle components as video screens and sensors. The approvals come as Huawei pivots its business toward items that are less susceptible to U.S. trade bans.\nAuto chips are generally not considered sophisticated, lowering the bar for approval. One person close to the license approvals said the government is granting licenses for chips in vehicles that may have other components with 5g capability.\nAsked about the automotive licenses, a U.S. Department of Commerce spokesperson said the government continues to consistently apply licensing policies \"to restrict Huawei's access to commodities, software, or technology for activities that could harm U.S. national security and foreign policy interests.\"\nThe Commerce Department is prohibited from disclosing license approvals or denials, the person added.\nA Huawei spokeswoman declined to comment on the licenses, but said: \"We are positioning ourselves as a new component provider for intelligent connected vehicles, and our aim is to help car OEMs (manufacturers) build better vehicles.\"\nCiting threats to U.S. national security and foreign policy interests, the U.S. has gone to great lengths to slow the growth of Huawei's key communications-related business.\nAfter placing Huawei on a U.S. Commerce Department trade blacklist in 2019, which banned sales of U.S. goods and technology to the company without special licenses, the U.S. last year ratcheted up restrictions to limit the sale of chips made abroad with U.S. equipment. It also campaigned to get allies to exclude Huawei from their 5G networks over spying concerns. Huawei has denied the allegations.\nHuawei reported its biggest ever revenue drop in the first half of 2021, after the U.S. restrictions drove it to sell a chunk of its once-dominant handset business and before new growth areas have fully matured.\nUnderscoring the shift into smart cars, the company's rotating chairman Eric Xu announced pacts with three state-owned Chinese carmakers, including BAIC Group, to supply \"Huawei Inside\", a smart vehicle operating system, at the Shanghai Auto Show earlier this year.\nIn another sign of Huawei's ambition in the space, after suppliers have received licenses authorizing the sale of tens of millions of dollars of chips to Huawei, the company has requested they apply again and request higher values such as one or two billion, one source said. Licenses are generally good for four years.\nRichard Barnett, chief marketing officer at a global electronics consultancy called Supply Frame, said Huawei is in the \"early innings\" of trying to invest in the $5 trillion automotive market that has large potential growth both inside and outside of China.\n\"Cars and trucks are now computers on wheels,\" said Barnett, \"That convergence is what's driving Huawei's strategic focus to be a bigger player in that area.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835555740,"gmtCreate":1629728529580,"gmtModify":1631891793022,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835555740","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895723957,"gmtCreate":1628774931779,"gmtModify":1631891793023,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like!&nbsp;","listText":"please like!&nbsp;","text":"please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895723957","repostId":"2158433257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899635699,"gmtCreate":1628177176211,"gmtModify":1631891793026,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like","listText":"please like","text":"please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899635699","repostId":"1175346944","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890049768,"gmtCreate":1628070233954,"gmtModify":1631891793031,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like!&nbsp;","listText":"please like!&nbsp;","text":"please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890049768","repostId":"1138278557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138278557","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628069771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138278557?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 17:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Most of Chinese stocks rally in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138278557","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 4) Most of Chinese stocks rally in premarket trading.","content":"<p>(Aug&nbsp;4)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月4日）大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e20b3f08685e4cdc45bf7c333cb5e6f\" tg-width=\"373\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Most of Chinese stocks rally in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost of Chinese stocks rally in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-04 17:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug&nbsp;4)&nbsp;Most&nbsp;of&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;rally&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月4日）大多数中国股市在盘前交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e20b3f08685e4cdc45bf7c333cb5e6f\" tg-width=\"373\" tg-height=\"729\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138278557","content_text":"(Aug 4) Most of Chinese stocks rally in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804523371,"gmtCreate":1627965849293,"gmtModify":1631891793033,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please help to like!","listText":"please help to like!","text":"please help to like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804523371","repostId":"1119293992","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119293992","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627963162,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119293992?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Google sets all-time records as search and YouTube profits soar<blockquote>随着搜索和YouTube利润飙升，谷歌创下历史纪录</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119293992","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Google delivered turbocharged sales growth in the past quarter, underscoring its status as the world","content":"<p>Google delivered turbocharged sales growth in the past quarter, underscoring its status as the world’s most potent advertising engine. The internet giant took advantage of an uneven pandemic reopening, catering to homebound users spending more time on screens as well as consumers venturing out to shop and travel.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌在过去一个季度实现了强劲的销售增长，凸显了其作为全球最强大广告引擎的地位。这家互联网巨头利用了疫情重新开放不均衡的机会，迎合了花更多时间在屏幕上的居家用户以及冒险外出购物和旅行的消费者。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter sales for Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent, surged past Wall Street estimates, due to a swell of ads from retail marketers eager to encourage consumer spending -- through e-commerce on YouTube and by physically returning to stores.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌母公司Alphabet第二季度销售额飙升，超出了华尔街的预期，原因是零售营销人员急于通过YouTube上的电子商务和实体店重返商店来鼓励消费者支出。</blockquote></p><p> The company brought in US$61.9 billion in revenue, up from $38.3 billion in Q2 2020, and reported an operating income of $19.4 billion, up from $6.4 billion in Q2 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的收入为619亿美元，高于2020年第二季度的383亿美元，营业收入为194亿美元，高于2020年第二季度的64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Income (expenses) also rose to $2.6 billion, up from $1.9 billion, while net income reached $18.5 billion, up from $7 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>收入（支出）也从19亿美元增至26亿美元，而净利润则从2021年的70亿美元增至185亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Diluted EPS for the quarter was $27.26, up from $10.13 in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>本季度摊薄后每股收益为27.26美元，高于去年同期的10.13美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Our strong second quarter revenues of $61.9 billion reflect elevated consumer online activity and broad-based strength in advertiser spend. Again, we benefited from excellent execution across the board by our teams,” comments Alphabet and Google chief financial officer Ruth Porat.</p><p><blockquote>“我们第二季度619亿美元的强劲收入反映了消费者在线活动的增加和广告商支出的广泛实力。我们再次受益于我们团队的全面出色执行，”Alphabet和谷歌首席财务官露丝·波拉特(Ruth Porat)评论道。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet, which owns and operates Google, also published additional financials related to Google’s performance.</p><p><blockquote>拥有并运营谷歌的Alphabet还公布了与谷歌业绩相关的其他财务数据。</blockquote></p><p> Google advertising: Search brought in US$35.8 billion in Q2 2021, up from $21.3 billion in Q2 2020. YouTube ad revenue totalled $7 billion, up from $3.8 billion, and Google Network totalled $7.6 billion, up from $4.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌广告：搜索在Q2 2021年带来了358亿美元的收入，高于Q2 2020年的213亿美元。YouTube广告收入总计70亿美元，高于38亿美元，谷歌网络总计76亿美元，高于47亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In total, Google Services brought in $57 billion, up from $35 billion for the same period last year. Google Services include ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Revenue generation comes from advertising; sales of apps, in-app purchases, digital content products, and hardware; and fees received for subscription-based products such as YouTube Premium and YouTube TV.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌服务总共带来了570亿美元的收入，高于去年同期的350亿美元。谷歌服务包括广告、Android、Chrome、硬件、谷歌地图、Google Play、搜索和YouTube。创收来自广告；应用程序、应用内购买、数字内容产品和硬件的销售；以及YouTube Premium和YouTube TV等基于订阅的产品收取的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Google Cloud reported revenue of $4.6 billion, up from $3 billion for the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌云报告营收为46亿美元，高于去年同期的30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Google’s total number of employees also rose from 127,498 in Q2 2020 to 144,056 in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌的员工总数也从2020年Q2的127,498人上升到2021年Q2的144,056人。</blockquote></p><p> “In Q2, there was a rising tide of online activity in many parts of the world, and we’re proud that our services helped so many consumers and businesses. Our long-term investments in AI and Google Cloud are helping us drive significant improvements in everyone’s digital experience,” comments Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pinchai.</p><p><blockquote>“第二季度，世界许多地区的在线活动激增，我们很自豪我们的服务帮助了如此多的消费者和企业。我们对人工智能和谷歌云的长期投资正在帮助我们推动重大改进每个人的数字体验，”Alphabet和谷歌首席执行官Sundar Pinchai评论道。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>YouTube is a proven juggernaut</h4> When we talk about the winners and losers in the streaming wars, the focus is primarily on the subscription services like Disney+, Netflix and HBO Max. But ever since Alphabet started breaking out YouTube's performance early last year, it's become clear it should be right there in the mix with the rest.</p><p><blockquote><h4>YouTube是一个久经考验的巨头</h4>当我们谈论流媒体战争中的赢家和输家时，焦点主要是迪士尼+、网飞和HBO Max等订阅服务。但自从Alphabet去年初开始突破YouTube的表现以来，很明显它应该与其他公司融为一体。</blockquote></p><p> YouTube is not only a streaming video juggernaut that continues to report mind-bending growth, it is also turning into a key rival to the paid services that dominate the conversation around the future of television. And it has plenty of room to grow.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube不仅是一个流媒体视频巨头，继续报告令人难以置信的增长，它也正在成为主导电视未来对话的付费服务的主要竞争对手。而且它还有很大的成长空间。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at some of the key points we've learned about YouTube's growth recently:</p><p><blockquote>看看我们最近了解到的有关YouTube增长的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> Quarterly revenue is on a par with Netflix, and it's growing at a faster rate. Alphabet said YouTube booked $7 billion in ad revenue last quarter. That's up 83% from the year-ago quarter. Compare that to the $7.34 billion in revenue Netflix booked during the same period. Netflix's revenue grew 19.4% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>季度收入与Netflix相当，而且增长速度更快。Alphabet表示，YouTube上季度的广告收入为70亿美元。这比去年同期增长了83%。相比之下，Netflix同期的收入为73.4亿美元。Netflix的收入同比增长19.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Also, practically all of Netflix's revenue comes from subscriptions. Alphabet only reports YouTube's advertising revenue, not revenue from subscription products like YouTube TV and YouTube Premium.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Netflix几乎所有的收入都来自订阅。Alphabet只报告YouTube的广告收入，不报告YouTube TV和YouTube Premium等订阅产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> YouTube's television viewing is growing faster than ever. While the vast majority of YouTube consumption happens on phones, computers and tablets, Alphabet reported huge growth over the past year in people watching on television sets.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube的电视观看量增长速度比以往任何时候都快。虽然绝大多数YouTube消费发生在手机、电脑和平板电脑上，但Alphabet报告称，过去一年在电视机上观看的人数大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said 120 million people watched YouTube on a TV last month, up from 100 million per month last year. Philipp Schindler, Google's chief business officer, said on the company's earnings call Tuesday YouTube on TV is \"the fastest growing consumer surface that we have.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，上个月有1.2亿人在电视上观看YouTube，高于去年每月1亿人。谷歌首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒(Philipp Schindler)周二在公司财报看涨期权上表示，电视上的YouTube是“我们拥有的增长最快的消费者平台”。</blockquote></p><p> It’s the strongest signal yet that YouTube is encroaching on Netflix (209 million subscribers as of the end of June) and Disney+’s (103.6 million subscribers as of April 3) territory in the living room.</p><p><blockquote>这是迄今为止最强烈的信号，表明YouTube正在蚕食Netflix（截至6月底拥有2.09亿订阅者）和Disney+（截至4月3日拥有1.036亿订阅者）在客厅的领地。</blockquote></p><p> Nielsen says more people are watching YouTube and Netflix than any other streaming service. Research firm Nielsen released a fascinating study last month showing far more people still watch traditional television than streaming video.</p><p><blockquote>尼尔森表示，观看YouTube和网飞的人比任何其他流媒体服务都多。研究公司尼尔森上个月发布了一项有趣的研究，显示观看传统电视的人远远多于观看流媒体视频的人。</blockquote></p><p> But Nielsen’s data also had an interesting ranking of time spent streaming on various services. YouTube and Netflix were the top two streamers, with each service accounting for 6% of time spent watching television.</p><p><blockquote>但尼尔森的数据也对在各种服务上花费的时间进行了有趣的排名。YouTube和网飞是排名前两位的流媒体，每项服务都占看电视时间的6%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> YouTube’s TikTok rival is also growing. Short-form video is the dominant trend on social media today, with TikTok leading the charge. YouTube has its own short-form video service, YouTube Shorts, designed to compete with TikTok. Alphabet didn’t disclose how many people are using YouTube shorts but said viewing metrics jumped from 6.5 billion views per day in March to 15 billion views per day by the end of last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube的竞争对手TikTok也在不断壮大。短视频是当今社交媒体的主导趋势，抖音处于领先地位。YouTube有自己的短视频服务YouTube Shorts，旨在与抖音竞争。Alphabet没有透露有多少人在使用YouTube短片，但表示观看指标从3月份的每天65亿次观看跃升至上季度末的每天150亿次观看。</blockquote></p><p> More room to grow. Nielsen’s report last month showed there’s still plenty of room for all streamers to grow as more people migrate away from traditional linear TV. Streaming is still just about a quarter of all television viewing. A rising tide lifts all boats. YouTube is poised to be one of the streaming wars winners thanks to its early lead.</p><p><blockquote>更大的成长空间。尼尔森上个月的报告显示，随着越来越多的人远离传统的线性电视，所有流媒体仍有很大的增长空间。流媒体仍仅占所有电视观看量的四分之一左右。水涨船高。由于早期的领先优势，YouTube有望成为流媒体战争的赢家之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google sets all-time records as search and YouTube profits soar<blockquote>随着搜索和YouTube利润飙升，谷歌创下历史纪录</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle sets all-time records as search and YouTube profits soar<blockquote>随着搜索和YouTube利润飙升，谷歌创下历史纪录</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-03 11:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Google delivered turbocharged sales growth in the past quarter, underscoring its status as the world’s most potent advertising engine. The internet giant took advantage of an uneven pandemic reopening, catering to homebound users spending more time on screens as well as consumers venturing out to shop and travel.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌在过去一个季度实现了强劲的销售增长，凸显了其作为全球最强大广告引擎的地位。这家互联网巨头利用了疫情重新开放不均衡的机会，迎合了花更多时间在屏幕上的居家用户以及冒险外出购物和旅行的消费者。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter sales for Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent, surged past Wall Street estimates, due to a swell of ads from retail marketers eager to encourage consumer spending -- through e-commerce on YouTube and by physically returning to stores.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌母公司Alphabet第二季度销售额飙升，超出了华尔街的预期，原因是零售营销人员急于通过YouTube上的电子商务和实体店重返商店来鼓励消费者支出。</blockquote></p><p> The company brought in US$61.9 billion in revenue, up from $38.3 billion in Q2 2020, and reported an operating income of $19.4 billion, up from $6.4 billion in Q2 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的收入为619亿美元，高于2020年第二季度的383亿美元，营业收入为194亿美元，高于2020年第二季度的64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Income (expenses) also rose to $2.6 billion, up from $1.9 billion, while net income reached $18.5 billion, up from $7 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>收入（支出）也从19亿美元增至26亿美元，而净利润则从2021年的70亿美元增至185亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Diluted EPS for the quarter was $27.26, up from $10.13 in the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>本季度摊薄后每股收益为27.26美元，高于去年同期的10.13美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Our strong second quarter revenues of $61.9 billion reflect elevated consumer online activity and broad-based strength in advertiser spend. Again, we benefited from excellent execution across the board by our teams,” comments Alphabet and Google chief financial officer Ruth Porat.</p><p><blockquote>“我们第二季度619亿美元的强劲收入反映了消费者在线活动的增加和广告商支出的广泛实力。我们再次受益于我们团队的全面出色执行，”Alphabet和谷歌首席财务官露丝·波拉特(Ruth Porat)评论道。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet, which owns and operates Google, also published additional financials related to Google’s performance.</p><p><blockquote>拥有并运营谷歌的Alphabet还公布了与谷歌业绩相关的其他财务数据。</blockquote></p><p> Google advertising: Search brought in US$35.8 billion in Q2 2021, up from $21.3 billion in Q2 2020. YouTube ad revenue totalled $7 billion, up from $3.8 billion, and Google Network totalled $7.6 billion, up from $4.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌广告：搜索在Q2 2021年带来了358亿美元的收入，高于Q2 2020年的213亿美元。YouTube广告收入总计70亿美元，高于38亿美元，谷歌网络总计76亿美元，高于47亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In total, Google Services brought in $57 billion, up from $35 billion for the same period last year. Google Services include ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Revenue generation comes from advertising; sales of apps, in-app purchases, digital content products, and hardware; and fees received for subscription-based products such as YouTube Premium and YouTube TV.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌服务总共带来了570亿美元的收入，高于去年同期的350亿美元。谷歌服务包括广告、Android、Chrome、硬件、谷歌地图、Google Play、搜索和YouTube。创收来自广告；应用程序、应用内购买、数字内容产品和硬件的销售；以及YouTube Premium和YouTube TV等基于订阅的产品收取的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Google Cloud reported revenue of $4.6 billion, up from $3 billion for the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌云报告营收为46亿美元，高于去年同期的30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Google’s total number of employees also rose from 127,498 in Q2 2020 to 144,056 in Q2 2021.</p><p><blockquote>谷歌的员工总数也从2020年Q2的127,498人上升到2021年Q2的144,056人。</blockquote></p><p> “In Q2, there was a rising tide of online activity in many parts of the world, and we’re proud that our services helped so many consumers and businesses. Our long-term investments in AI and Google Cloud are helping us drive significant improvements in everyone’s digital experience,” comments Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pinchai.</p><p><blockquote>“第二季度，世界许多地区的在线活动激增，我们很自豪我们的服务帮助了如此多的消费者和企业。我们对人工智能和谷歌云的长期投资正在帮助我们推动重大改进每个人的数字体验，”Alphabet和谷歌首席执行官Sundar Pinchai评论道。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>YouTube is a proven juggernaut</h4> When we talk about the winners and losers in the streaming wars, the focus is primarily on the subscription services like Disney+, Netflix and HBO Max. But ever since Alphabet started breaking out YouTube's performance early last year, it's become clear it should be right there in the mix with the rest.</p><p><blockquote><h4>YouTube是一个久经考验的巨头</h4>当我们谈论流媒体战争中的赢家和输家时，焦点主要是迪士尼+、网飞和HBO Max等订阅服务。但自从Alphabet去年初开始突破YouTube的表现以来，很明显它应该与其他公司融为一体。</blockquote></p><p> YouTube is not only a streaming video juggernaut that continues to report mind-bending growth, it is also turning into a key rival to the paid services that dominate the conversation around the future of television. And it has plenty of room to grow.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube不仅是一个流媒体视频巨头，继续报告令人难以置信的增长，它也正在成为主导电视未来对话的付费服务的主要竞争对手。而且它还有很大的成长空间。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at some of the key points we've learned about YouTube's growth recently:</p><p><blockquote>看看我们最近了解到的有关YouTube增长的一些要点：</blockquote></p><p> Quarterly revenue is on a par with Netflix, and it's growing at a faster rate. Alphabet said YouTube booked $7 billion in ad revenue last quarter. That's up 83% from the year-ago quarter. Compare that to the $7.34 billion in revenue Netflix booked during the same period. Netflix's revenue grew 19.4% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>季度收入与Netflix相当，而且增长速度更快。Alphabet表示，YouTube上季度的广告收入为70亿美元。这比去年同期增长了83%。相比之下，Netflix同期的收入为73.4亿美元。Netflix的收入同比增长19.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Also, practically all of Netflix's revenue comes from subscriptions. Alphabet only reports YouTube's advertising revenue, not revenue from subscription products like YouTube TV and YouTube Premium.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Netflix几乎所有的收入都来自订阅。Alphabet只报告YouTube的广告收入，不报告YouTube TV和YouTube Premium等订阅产品的收入。</blockquote></p><p> YouTube's television viewing is growing faster than ever. While the vast majority of YouTube consumption happens on phones, computers and tablets, Alphabet reported huge growth over the past year in people watching on television sets.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube的电视观看量增长速度比以往任何时候都快。虽然绝大多数YouTube消费发生在手机、电脑和平板电脑上，但Alphabet报告称，过去一年在电视机上观看的人数大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said 120 million people watched YouTube on a TV last month, up from 100 million per month last year. Philipp Schindler, Google's chief business officer, said on the company's earnings call Tuesday YouTube on TV is \"the fastest growing consumer surface that we have.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，上个月有1.2亿人在电视上观看YouTube，高于去年每月1亿人。谷歌首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒(Philipp Schindler)周二在公司财报看涨期权上表示，电视上的YouTube是“我们拥有的增长最快的消费者平台”。</blockquote></p><p> It’s the strongest signal yet that YouTube is encroaching on Netflix (209 million subscribers as of the end of June) and Disney+’s (103.6 million subscribers as of April 3) territory in the living room.</p><p><blockquote>这是迄今为止最强烈的信号，表明YouTube正在蚕食Netflix（截至6月底拥有2.09亿订阅者）和Disney+（截至4月3日拥有1.036亿订阅者）在客厅的领地。</blockquote></p><p> Nielsen says more people are watching YouTube and Netflix than any other streaming service. Research firm Nielsen released a fascinating study last month showing far more people still watch traditional television than streaming video.</p><p><blockquote>尼尔森表示，观看YouTube和网飞的人比任何其他流媒体服务都多。研究公司尼尔森上个月发布了一项有趣的研究，显示观看传统电视的人远远多于观看流媒体视频的人。</blockquote></p><p> But Nielsen’s data also had an interesting ranking of time spent streaming on various services. YouTube and Netflix were the top two streamers, with each service accounting for 6% of time spent watching television.</p><p><blockquote>但尼尔森的数据也对在各种服务上花费的时间进行了有趣的排名。YouTube和网飞是排名前两位的流媒体，每项服务都占看电视时间的6%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> YouTube’s TikTok rival is also growing. Short-form video is the dominant trend on social media today, with TikTok leading the charge. YouTube has its own short-form video service, YouTube Shorts, designed to compete with TikTok. Alphabet didn’t disclose how many people are using YouTube shorts but said viewing metrics jumped from 6.5 billion views per day in March to 15 billion views per day by the end of last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube的竞争对手TikTok也在不断壮大。短视频是当今社交媒体的主导趋势，抖音处于领先地位。YouTube有自己的短视频服务YouTube Shorts，旨在与抖音竞争。Alphabet没有透露有多少人在使用YouTube短片，但表示观看指标从3月份的每天65亿次观看跃升至上季度末的每天150亿次观看。</blockquote></p><p> More room to grow. Nielsen’s report last month showed there’s still plenty of room for all streamers to grow as more people migrate away from traditional linear TV. Streaming is still just about a quarter of all television viewing. A rising tide lifts all boats. YouTube is poised to be one of the streaming wars winners thanks to its early lead.</p><p><blockquote>更大的成长空间。尼尔森上个月的报告显示，随着越来越多的人远离传统的线性电视，所有流媒体仍有很大的增长空间。流媒体仍仅占所有电视观看量的四分之一左右。水涨船高。由于早期的领先优势，YouTube有望成为流媒体战争的赢家之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119293992","content_text":"Google delivered turbocharged sales growth in the past quarter, underscoring its status as the world’s most potent advertising engine. The internet giant took advantage of an uneven pandemic reopening, catering to homebound users spending more time on screens as well as consumers venturing out to shop and travel.\nSecond-quarter sales for Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent, surged past Wall Street estimates, due to a swell of ads from retail marketers eager to encourage consumer spending -- through e-commerce on YouTube and by physically returning to stores.\nThe company brought in US$61.9 billion in revenue, up from $38.3 billion in Q2 2020, and reported an operating income of $19.4 billion, up from $6.4 billion in Q2 2020.\nIncome (expenses) also rose to $2.6 billion, up from $1.9 billion, while net income reached $18.5 billion, up from $7 billion in 2021.\nDiluted EPS for the quarter was $27.26, up from $10.13 in the same period last year.\n“Our strong second quarter revenues of $61.9 billion reflect elevated consumer online activity and broad-based strength in advertiser spend. Again, we benefited from excellent execution across the board by our teams,” comments Alphabet and Google chief financial officer Ruth Porat.\nAlphabet, which owns and operates Google, also published additional financials related to Google’s performance.\nGoogle advertising: Search brought in US$35.8 billion in Q2 2021, up from $21.3 billion in Q2 2020. YouTube ad revenue totalled $7 billion, up from $3.8 billion, and Google Network totalled $7.6 billion, up from $4.7 billion.\nIn total, Google Services brought in $57 billion, up from $35 billion for the same period last year. Google Services include ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. Revenue generation comes from advertising; sales of apps, in-app purchases, digital content products, and hardware; and fees received for subscription-based products such as YouTube Premium and YouTube TV.\nGoogle Cloud reported revenue of $4.6 billion, up from $3 billion for the same period last year.\nGoogle’s total number of employees also rose from 127,498 in Q2 2020 to 144,056 in Q2 2021.\n“In Q2, there was a rising tide of online activity in many parts of the world, and we’re proud that our services helped so many consumers and businesses. Our long-term investments in AI and Google Cloud are helping us drive significant improvements in everyone’s digital experience,” comments Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pinchai.\nYouTube is a proven juggernaut\nWhen we talk about the winners and losers in the streaming wars, the focus is primarily on the subscription services like Disney+, Netflix and HBO Max. But ever since Alphabet started breaking out YouTube's performance early last year, it's become clear it should be right there in the mix with the rest.\nYouTube is not only a streaming video juggernaut that continues to report mind-bending growth, it is also turning into a key rival to the paid services that dominate the conversation around the future of television. And it has plenty of room to grow.\nTake a look at some of the key points we've learned about YouTube's growth recently:\nQuarterly revenue is on a par with Netflix, and it's growing at a faster rate. Alphabet said YouTube booked $7 billion in ad revenue last quarter. That's up 83% from the year-ago quarter. Compare that to the $7.34 billion in revenue Netflix booked during the same period. Netflix's revenue grew 19.4% from a year ago.\nAlso, practically all of Netflix's revenue comes from subscriptions. Alphabet only reports YouTube's advertising revenue, not revenue from subscription products like YouTube TV and YouTube Premium.\nYouTube's television viewing is growing faster than ever. While the vast majority of YouTube consumption happens on phones, computers and tablets, Alphabet reported huge growth over the past year in people watching on television sets.\nThe company said 120 million people watched YouTube on a TV last month, up from 100 million per month last year. Philipp Schindler, Google's chief business officer, said on the company's earnings call Tuesday YouTube on TV is \"the fastest growing consumer surface that we have.\"\nIt’s the strongest signal yet that YouTube is encroaching on Netflix (209 million subscribers as of the end of June) and Disney+’s (103.6 million subscribers as of April 3) territory in the living room.\nNielsen says more people are watching YouTube and Netflix than any other streaming service. Research firm Nielsen released a fascinating study last month showing far more people still watch traditional television than streaming video.\nBut Nielsen’s data also had an interesting ranking of time spent streaming on various services. YouTube and Netflix were the top two streamers, with each service accounting for 6% of time spent watching television.\nYouTube’s TikTok rival is also growing. Short-form video is the dominant trend on social media today, with TikTok leading the charge. YouTube has its own short-form video service, YouTube Shorts, designed to compete with TikTok. Alphabet didn’t disclose how many people are using YouTube shorts but said viewing metrics jumped from 6.5 billion views per day in March to 15 billion views per day by the end of last quarter.\nMore room to grow. Nielsen’s report last month showed there’s still plenty of room for all streamers to grow as more people migrate away from traditional linear TV. Streaming is still just about a quarter of all television viewing. A rising tide lifts all boats. YouTube is poised to be one of the streaming wars winners thanks to its early lead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804302549,"gmtCreate":1627919421081,"gmtModify":1631891793037,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like!&nbsp;","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804302549","repostId":"1172320411","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801941369,"gmtCreate":1627480895951,"gmtModify":1631891793046,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like!!","listText":"pls like!!","text":"pls like!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801941369","repostId":"1102507343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800204257,"gmtCreate":1627302993579,"gmtModify":1631891793047,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!!","listText":"Pls like!!","text":"Pls like!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800204257","repostId":"1184014483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177785682,"gmtCreate":1627262036946,"gmtModify":1633766788769,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"because asian stocks move too slowly","listText":"because asian stocks move too slowly","text":"because asian stocks move too slowly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177785682","repostId":"2154589937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":101981011,"gmtCreate":1619836847133,"gmtModify":1634209583792,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"first alibaba then meituan now apple","listText":"first alibaba then meituan now apple","text":"first alibaba then meituan now apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101981011","repostId":"1142063705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816522151,"gmtCreate":1630508317573,"gmtModify":1631891793016,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816522151","repostId":"2164180358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837318055,"gmtCreate":1629856847877,"gmtModify":1631891793017,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like!","listText":"pls like!","text":"pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837318055","repostId":"1115060367","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175718191,"gmtCreate":1627049013213,"gmtModify":1633768444559,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like!&nbsp;","listText":"pls like!&nbsp;","text":"pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175718191","repostId":"1183078855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124447595,"gmtCreate":1624785917717,"gmtModify":1633948627784,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"it’s too expensive right now, if it plunges its scary","listText":"it’s too expensive right now, if it plunges its scary","text":"it’s too expensive right now, if it plunges its scary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124447595","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887595292,"gmtCreate":1632060207916,"gmtModify":1632803084912,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887595292","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176887362,"gmtCreate":1626876315156,"gmtModify":1633770195414,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like!","listText":"pls like!","text":"pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176887362","repostId":"1161684365","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171915741,"gmtCreate":1626702275483,"gmtModify":1633924816891,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like and comment!&nbsp;","listText":"pls like and comment!&nbsp;","text":"pls like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171915741","repostId":"1144010116","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147576169,"gmtCreate":1626368699751,"gmtModify":1633927402810,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"meme have expirations!","listText":"meme have expirations!","text":"meme have expirations!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147576169","repostId":"1164987892","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164987892","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626362690,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164987892?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 23:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC and Verb Tech Rise, GameStop Slips Among Meme Stocks in Focus<blockquote>AMC和Verb Tech上涨，游戏驿站在模因股中下滑成为焦点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164987892","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Shares of meme-stock veteran AMC Entertainment (AMC) and business software provider Verb Technology ","content":"<p>Shares of meme-stock veteran AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;and&nbsp;business software provider Verb Technology&nbsp;(<b>VERB</b>)&nbsp;rose on Thursday, while&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;declined.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票资深人士AMC院线的股票（<b>AMC</b>)和商业软件提供商Verb Technology(<b>动词</b>)周四上涨，而游戏驿站(<b>GME</b>）谢绝了。</blockquote></p><p> AMC, Leawood, Kan., the country’s largest owner of movie theaters and&nbsp;perhaps the second-most-popular meme stock, at last check traded at $34.80, up 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯州利伍德的AMC。是美国最大的电影院所有者，也可能是第二大最受欢迎的meme股票，最新交易价格为34.80美元，上涨4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The granddaddy of meme stocks, the Grapevine, Texas, videogame retailer GameStop,&nbsp;recently traded at $166.96, off 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票的鼻祖、德克萨斯葡萄藤的视频游戏零售商游戏驿站最近的交易价格为166.96美元，下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> And Verb Technology, American Fork, Utah, recently traded at $2.99, up 20%. It has jumped 32% in the six months through Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>犹他州American Fork的Verb Technology最近交易价格为2.99美元，上涨20%。截至周三的六个月内，该指数已上涨32%。</blockquote></p><p> Mediaco Holding MDIA, the Indianapolis radio station owner, traded at $7.29, down 9.3%.</p><p><blockquote>印第安纳波利斯广播电台所有者Mediaco Holding MDIA股价为7.29美元，下跌9.3%。</blockquote></p><p> James “Rev Shark” DePorre says in Real Moneythat the meme trading movement is hardly new and not nearly as efficient as the media have led average investors to believe.</p><p><blockquote>James“Rev Shark”DePorre用真钱表示，模因交易运动并不新鲜，也不像媒体让普通投资者相信的那么有效。</blockquote></p><p> \"Learn how to pick your own stocks,” he says. “Social media trading is surprisingly uncreative in finding new stock ideas.\"</p><p><blockquote>“学会如何挑选自己的股票，”他说，“社交媒体交易在寻找新的股票创意方面出奇的缺乏创造性。”</blockquote></p><p> Further, \"The business media likes to portray meme trading as something new, but this sort of trading has been part of markets from their very beginning hundreds of years ago,” DePorre says.</p><p><blockquote>此外，“商业媒体喜欢将模因交易描绘成一种新事物，但这种交易从数百年前一开始就是市场的一部分，”DePorre说。</blockquote></p><p> “There will also be groups that question the conventional wisdom of the professionals that control the market. It is no surprise at all that there are small traders with limited capital who have no interest in the idea that they should hold a diversified portfolio of stocks for the long term.\"</p><p><blockquote>“也会有一些团体质疑控制市场的专业人士的传统智慧。有资金有限的小交易者对他们应该长期持有多元化股票组合的想法不感兴趣，这一点也不奇怪。”</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet.com Founder&nbsp;Jim Cramer also expressed caution&nbsp;this week. Meme stocks “away from AMC and GameStop appear to be crooked,” he said. They seem to be pump and dumps.”</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet.com创始人吉姆·克莱默本周也表达了谨慎态度。他表示，“远离AMC和游戏驿站的模因股票似乎是弯曲的”。它们似乎是泵和转储。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC and Verb Tech Rise, GameStop Slips Among Meme Stocks in Focus<blockquote>AMC和Verb Tech上涨，游戏驿站在模因股中下滑成为焦点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC and Verb Tech Rise, GameStop Slips Among Meme Stocks in Focus<blockquote>AMC和Verb Tech上涨，游戏驿站在模因股中下滑成为焦点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 23:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of meme-stock veteran AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;and&nbsp;business software provider Verb Technology&nbsp;(<b>VERB</b>)&nbsp;rose on Thursday, while&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;declined.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票资深人士AMC院线的股票（<b>AMC</b>)和商业软件提供商Verb Technology(<b>动词</b>)周四上涨，而游戏驿站(<b>GME</b>）谢绝了。</blockquote></p><p> AMC, Leawood, Kan., the country’s largest owner of movie theaters and&nbsp;perhaps the second-most-popular meme stock, at last check traded at $34.80, up 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯州利伍德的AMC。是美国最大的电影院所有者，也可能是第二大最受欢迎的meme股票，最新交易价格为34.80美元，上涨4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The granddaddy of meme stocks, the Grapevine, Texas, videogame retailer GameStop,&nbsp;recently traded at $166.96, off 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票的鼻祖、德克萨斯葡萄藤的视频游戏零售商游戏驿站最近的交易价格为166.96美元，下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> And Verb Technology, American Fork, Utah, recently traded at $2.99, up 20%. It has jumped 32% in the six months through Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>犹他州American Fork的Verb Technology最近交易价格为2.99美元，上涨20%。截至周三的六个月内，该指数已上涨32%。</blockquote></p><p> Mediaco Holding MDIA, the Indianapolis radio station owner, traded at $7.29, down 9.3%.</p><p><blockquote>印第安纳波利斯广播电台所有者Mediaco Holding MDIA股价为7.29美元，下跌9.3%。</blockquote></p><p> James “Rev Shark” DePorre says in Real Moneythat the meme trading movement is hardly new and not nearly as efficient as the media have led average investors to believe.</p><p><blockquote>James“Rev Shark”DePorre用真钱表示，模因交易运动并不新鲜，也不像媒体让普通投资者相信的那么有效。</blockquote></p><p> \"Learn how to pick your own stocks,” he says. “Social media trading is surprisingly uncreative in finding new stock ideas.\"</p><p><blockquote>“学会如何挑选自己的股票，”他说，“社交媒体交易在寻找新的股票创意方面出奇的缺乏创造性。”</blockquote></p><p> Further, \"The business media likes to portray meme trading as something new, but this sort of trading has been part of markets from their very beginning hundreds of years ago,” DePorre says.</p><p><blockquote>此外，“商业媒体喜欢将模因交易描绘成一种新事物，但这种交易从数百年前一开始就是市场的一部分，”DePorre说。</blockquote></p><p> “There will also be groups that question the conventional wisdom of the professionals that control the market. It is no surprise at all that there are small traders with limited capital who have no interest in the idea that they should hold a diversified portfolio of stocks for the long term.\"</p><p><blockquote>“也会有一些团体质疑控制市场的专业人士的传统智慧。有资金有限的小交易者对他们应该长期持有多元化股票组合的想法不感兴趣，这一点也不奇怪。”</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet.com Founder&nbsp;Jim Cramer also expressed caution&nbsp;this week. Meme stocks “away from AMC and GameStop appear to be crooked,” he said. They seem to be pump and dumps.”</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet.com创始人吉姆·克莱默本周也表达了谨慎态度。他表示，“远离AMC和游戏驿站的模因股票似乎是弯曲的”。它们似乎是泵和转储。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meme-stocks-amc-and-verb-tech-rise-gamestop-falls?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meme-stocks-amc-and-verb-tech-rise-gamestop-falls?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164987892","content_text":"Shares of meme-stock veteran AMC Entertainment (AMC) and business software provider Verb Technology (VERB) rose on Thursday, while GameStop (GME) declined.\nAMC, Leawood, Kan., the country’s largest owner of movie theaters and perhaps the second-most-popular meme stock, at last check traded at $34.80, up 4.1%.\nThe granddaddy of meme stocks, the Grapevine, Texas, videogame retailer GameStop, recently traded at $166.96, off 0.4%.\nAnd Verb Technology, American Fork, Utah, recently traded at $2.99, up 20%. It has jumped 32% in the six months through Wednesday.\nMediaco Holding MDIA, the Indianapolis radio station owner, traded at $7.29, down 9.3%.\nJames “Rev Shark” DePorre says in Real Moneythat the meme trading movement is hardly new and not nearly as efficient as the media have led average investors to believe.\n\"Learn how to pick your own stocks,” he says. “Social media trading is surprisingly uncreative in finding new stock ideas.\"\nFurther, \"The business media likes to portray meme trading as something new, but this sort of trading has been part of markets from their very beginning hundreds of years ago,” DePorre says.\n“There will also be groups that question the conventional wisdom of the professionals that control the market. It is no surprise at all that there are small traders with limited capital who have no interest in the idea that they should hold a diversified portfolio of stocks for the long term.\"\nTheStreet.com Founder Jim Cramer also expressed caution this week. Meme stocks “away from AMC and GameStop appear to be crooked,” he said. They seem to be pump and dumps.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"VERB":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153416209,"gmtCreate":1625042122701,"gmtModify":1633945530176,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"seems like pre-market is dropping though...","listText":"seems like pre-market is dropping though...","text":"seems like pre-market is dropping though...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153416209","repostId":"2147892429","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137238253,"gmtCreate":1622348696272,"gmtModify":1634102127116,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this is such a vulnerable but important route","listText":"this is such a vulnerable but important route","text":"this is such a vulnerable but important route","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137238253","repostId":"2138488778","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342049184,"gmtCreate":1618137173048,"gmtModify":1634294736039,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fight covid!&nbsp;","listText":"fight covid!&nbsp;","text":"fight covid!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342049184","repostId":"2126038125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800204257,"gmtCreate":1627302993579,"gmtModify":1631891793047,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!!","listText":"Pls like!!","text":"Pls like!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800204257","repostId":"1184014483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804302549,"gmtCreate":1627919421081,"gmtModify":1631891793037,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like!&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like!&nbsp;","text":"Pls like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804302549","repostId":"1172320411","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159987208,"gmtCreate":1624936291704,"gmtModify":1633946764709,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tech stocks finally climbing again!&nbsp;","listText":"tech stocks finally climbing again!&nbsp;","text":"tech stocks finally climbing again!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159987208","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150334245,"gmtCreate":1624887053487,"gmtModify":1633947512648,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150334245","repostId":"1133469064","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107747905,"gmtCreate":1620544730807,"gmtModify":1634198109633,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"takes two hands to clap :,)","listText":"takes two hands to clap :,)","text":"takes two hands to clap :,)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107747905","repostId":"1170905579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881240734,"gmtCreate":1631350394728,"gmtModify":1631889871031,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881240734","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895723957,"gmtCreate":1628774931779,"gmtModify":1631891793023,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like!&nbsp;","listText":"please like!&nbsp;","text":"please like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895723957","repostId":"2158433257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145247895,"gmtCreate":1626227512917,"gmtModify":1633928838843,"author":{"id":"3575957490964285","authorId":"3575957490964285","name":"anqiju","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967f7f6ae6a869c2fcd0362a75de7cf4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575957490964285","idStr":"3575957490964285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"the daily fluctuation is real!","listText":"the daily fluctuation is real!","text":"the daily fluctuation is real!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145247895","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}