别买期权的个人主页 - 老虎社区

别买期权

别买期权

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IP属地：广东

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0勋章

04-01

$AMD 20260417 165.0 PUT$ 收菜

03-25

$特斯拉垂直价差 260424 PUT 340.0/PUT 310.0$ 新开 sellput 加一个小腿保护赚个菜钱

03-24

$GOOGL 20260618 320.0 CALL$ 回点血[捂脸]

03-18

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 做个点策略回点血😭

01-29

下次测记得发出来

01-15

$TSM 20260116 312.5 PUT$ 收租收租[财迷] [财迷]

01-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 每周收租赚个菜钱马斯克是最适合t的票子[开心] [开心] [开心]

01-13

不会的特特只是想赚钱

01-12

这保密做的不行啊

传脑机接口公司强脑科技据悉以保密形式提交香港IPO申请

01-09

$TSLA 20260109 420.0 PUT$ 上周sell440put 亏了不少这周有点不敢卖[捂脸] [捂脸]

2025-12-15

Replying to @目光之后:只看市盈率你基本错过了今天最猛的几只股//@目光之后:你有毒吧，特斯拉市盈率都上天了。

2025-12-06

$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$ 又到高点了 sell call 赚点小钱$TSLA 20251205 460.0 CALL$

2025-12-05

$摩尔线程(688795)$ 接下来就是等回本？

2025-12-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 空头怎么这么弱

2025-12-01

练习两年半[笑哭]

OpenAI大溃败！GPT-5“换皮”GPT-4o，两年半预训练0突破

2025-11-13

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 你是真能跌啊

2025-11-11

Replying to @哇咔哇咔哇咔:下次用//@哇咔哇咔哇咔:开盘前发这个不是晚了吗，期权也交易不了

2025-11-11

你不要过来啊

“大空头”切换“战斗模式”！Burry：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”

2025-11-08

$谷歌(GOOG)$ 要不要买两张put对冲有点担心[微笑]

2025-10-23

什么意思？预计支出90亿实际2亿？

特斯拉预计2025年的资本支出约90亿美元，低于市场预期

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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&nbsp;做个点策略 &nbsp;回点血😭","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 做个点策略 回点血😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1d3a8bdf9450ca191c4a0c59a960","width":"933","height":"1543"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543857927386464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4224929348980560","authorId":"4224929348980560","name":"Lukse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d0b8ca69f47d8212f2a47761730ba6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4224929348980560","authorIdStr":"4224929348980560"},"content":"哥 币圈也玩吗 [流泪]","text":"哥 币圈也玩吗 [流泪]","html":"哥 币圈也玩吗 [流泪]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":527114301281528,"gmtCreate":1769698153622,"gmtModify":1769698155934,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"下次测记得发出来","listText":"下次测记得发出来","text":"下次测记得发出来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527114301281528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":522047269478968,"gmtCreate":1768488908165,"gmtModify":1768488911149,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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14:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月12日，杭州“六小龙”之一脑机接口公司强脑科技据悉以保密形式提交香港IPO申请。（彭博）</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b737852f586e2640047e4e68a010a4","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144828344","content_text":"1月12日，杭州“六小龙”之一脑机接口公司强脑科技据悉以保密形式提交香港IPO申请。（彭博）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520142039839368,"gmtCreate":1767971011065,"gmtModify":1767971023504,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7a8378209b3148a977e799ce1d9378","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507594752094808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000497","authorId":"9000000000000497","name":"MabelReed","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000497","authorIdStr":"9000000000000497"},"content":"高位sell call稳赚，这波操作可以！[强]","text":"高位sell call稳赚，这波操作可以！[强]","html":"高位sell call稳赚，这波操作可以！[强]"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507595168088240,"gmtCreate":1764901560217,"gmtModify":1764901562178,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688795\">$摩尔线程(688795)$ </a> 接下来就是等回本？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688795\">$摩尔线程(688795)$ </a> 接下来就是等回本？","text":"$摩尔线程(688795)$ 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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48a85ba896dc71539eae0ffe7640c8fd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"163\"/></p><p>文章中，高级分析师强调：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>正手持TPUv7这把利剑，向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>王座发起冲锋，或将终结CUDA护城河。</p><p>众所周知，OpenAI全栈模型是在纯英伟达GPU上炼出的。</p><p>然而，圈内人的焦点，大都放在了大模型“推理”和“后训练”的硬件之上。</p><p>殊不知，没有前沿模型的预训练，一切皆是“无米之炊”。恰恰这一环节，成为了AI硬件里最难、最耗资源的一关。</p><p>如今，一个不为人知的内幕爆出了：</p><p>事实证明，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>TPU彻底经受住了这一考验；</p><p>相较之下，自2024年5月GPT-4o诞生之后，OpenAI的预训练却毫无进展.....</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96925999a2f079cdc34c93805d99a3ec\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"284\"/></p><p>过去，两年半的时间，OpenAI没有真正Scaling预训练的规模。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02adb07ec4500dfb06d8f57e9a419fc0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"682\"/></p><p>GPT的预训练，或许在GPT-4o之后触及了天花板，由此也解释了GPT-5性能未达业界预期的关键原因。</p><p>有网友表示，那不正是Ilya离开的时候吗.....</p><p>恰在昨天，Ilya最新发文称，Scaling不会停，但某个重要的东西仍然会缺失。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7332362c7b866ea1b461ba37aa58e2b9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"153\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a4cc533e69b244512a4aa8458b68b1b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"420\"/></p><p><strong>OpenAI预训练，大溃败</strong></p><p>还记得去年底，那场铺天盖地的“Orion”传闻吗？</p><p>这一秘密项目，原定以GPT-5面世，但因训练未达预期，最终被降级为GPT-4.5发布。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a7e9650c9b0c237429ef77db04b2410\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"350\"/></p><p>在前沿模型预训练上，OpenAI的研发似乎陷入了僵局——</p><p>如今第五代旗舰模型GPT-5，包括最新GPT-5.1，其“技术根基”本质或仍未突破GPT-4o的范畴。</p><p>SemiAnalysis去年底一篇文章，曾对外公开了Orion训练的困境。</p><p>当前，算法的进步使得模型每年所需的物理计算量减少约三分之一，因此，训练运行时间很少超过3个月。</p><p>甚至，行业中大多数预训练通常仅需要1-2个月。</p><p>然而，OpenAI的Orion大规模预训练，却打破了这一常规，其训练时间超过了3个月。</p><p>另据Information同一时间爆出，Orion不会像前代实现巨大的飞跃，相较于从GPT-3到GPT-4的迭代，改进幅度要小得多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1286f5442a0b9b02f8d2b0c7628caa7f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p>不仅如此，Orion性能提升也基本局限在——语言能力上，其代码能力甚至不如旧模型，且成本更高。</p><p>如今再回看2月，GPT-4.5的诞生，基于代号Orion的模型，OpenAI追求的是：</p><p>更强的语言能力+更稳的对话体验+更大知识库</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4db88e04bca5ddff4684dcf0281db961\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"190\"/></p><p>情商，成为了GPT-4.5的关键词。代码虽有提升，但并非主菜。</p><p>这一切的一切，从侧面印证了，此前外媒关于“Orion遇挫”爆料的准确性——</p><p><strong>LLM有提升，但不大。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6921884c3cb5ce3f00bafde300764e6c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"660\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b88a4b3e7a3c48111d7ed25362dabf\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"292\" tg-height=\"73\"/></p><p><strong>GPT-4o，成Scaling主线？</strong></p><p>今年8月，GPT-5的那场发布，奥特曼将其定调为“博士级AI，是通往AGI又一里程碑”。</p><p>实则，业界对于GPT-5的反响，唏嘘一片。</p><p>大家原本以为，GPT-5会是全面超越前代的一次飞跃，但实际发布后，更像是GPT-4.5的进一步优化版，不是“颠覆版”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/877c420235c2765936cefa6b68976418\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"261\"/></p><p>但至于GPT-5真正基于哪一款GPT打造，还有待证实。</p><p>正如之前传闻的猜测，有可能是GPT-4o，还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDDT\">Reddit</a>网友称是GPT-4.1....</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519913614c83d5cfd2e45812c5779712\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"310\"/></p><p>但不论是哪一款，都证明了GPT-5，没有在全新前沿模型的大规模预训练上淬炼。</p><p>搞笑的，那个曾将OpenAI三颗????????????“焊在”名字中的大佬，如今改成了三个????????????。</p><p>他表示，这已经不是什么秘密了——</p><p>GPT-4.5将预训练推向极致之后，OpenAI加倍投入了推理范式，主打o系列+RL。</p><p>不同的是，谷歌和Anthropic仍在Scaling预训练，并增强了强化学习。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723129e431e6721ce0dc4559751fb026\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"757\"/></p><p>OpenAI主动放弃了这一范式，为劲敌让出了一条速通道。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e200950fd36f1cb9ff7b28189c45c9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"193\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1704e104ceef163448365c26ab87c150\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"156\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/612407691c118a53eda673fc15662d7f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"353\"/></p><p><strong>奥特曼：这事儿瞒不住了！</strong></p><p>Gemini 3发布后，谷歌和OpenAI攻守之势易形——</p><p>Gemini 3来势汹汹，而OpenAI这次终于坐不住了！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2513583f1a36406cc833dbd45d5f1b06\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"455\"/></p><p>据泄露的内部备忘录，奥特曼坦言：“近期， 从各方面来看，谷歌在大语言模型表现出色”，特别是预训练。</p><p>这番表态标志OpenAI的重大转变——它终于承认，一个重新崛起的竞争对手与逐渐降温的企业需求，已彻底打破了其“天下无敌”的光环。</p><p>所谓预训练，是训练生成式AI模型（无论是文本还是图像）过程中的第一阶段。在这一阶段，研究人员会用网页等大量数据“投喂”模型，让它掌握数据之间的各种关联。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67af68aad0c888ff9a44df3ff97dc271\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"351\"/></p><p>大语言模型（LLM）开发与训练流程概述：预训练和后训练是关键</p><p>在预训练领域，谷歌取得了新突破，给Gemini 3带来了空前的推理深度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfd09777725c8ba9c83e359f71534b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"935\"/></p><p>这让不少AI研究者颇感意外——</p><p>毕竟，OpenAI去年曾屡屡碰壁，而谷歌自己过去也曾陷入瓶颈。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2d39f20abcbf0ca8a09b75fe93e7d6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"738\"/></p><p>正因如此，在一段时间内，OpenAI选择将更多精力转向另一种新型AI架构——“推理模型”，这种模型虽然计算量更大，但有望输出更优质的回答。</p><p>在推出GPT-5之前，OpenAI团队曾尝试对预训练阶段做出一系列调整，这些方法在小模型上有效，一旦模型变大就失效了。</p><p>GPT-5发布第二天，西班牙与波兰Talan公司AI应用负责人Javier Alba de Alba表示：</p><p>(GPT-5）整体观感颇为失望：</p><p>这是个优秀的模型——响应迅捷、价格亲民、能力全面，但远非人们基于OpenAI过往发布会所预期的代际飞跃。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/733e8aa6a1de749e77b4ae2d5fc36241\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"347\"/></p><p>GPT-5带来了不少提升——</p><p>编程能力显著提升、推理能力进阶、幻觉现象减少、医疗领域表现优化，甚至免费用户也享有更长的默认使用时长。此外命名体系全面简化：GPT-4o/4.1/turbo/mini等繁杂名称悉数消失，统一更名为GPT-5。</p><p>不过，Javier Alba de Alba提醒：“千万不要被名称迷惑：GPT-5并非新一代产品。”他解释道：</p><p>技术层面而言，它更像是GPT-4o的功能增强版，即便命名为GPT-4.2也毫不违和。</p><p>OpenAI此举虽完成了必要的名称统一，但整场发布会未能达到预期，让技术社区颇感失落。</p><p>GPT-5发布后，Epoch AI也发现了其中的异常：</p><p>相比前代GPT-4.5，GPT-5很可能消耗了更少的训练算力。</p><p>虽然具体数值尚未公开，但GPT-4.5使用的训练算力极有可能超过GPT-5。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d718b394a2db766bce08136b6bc7820a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"768\"/></p><p>预训练并未消亡，它依然是胜负关键。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ccaae7cb8157d43abeb1c182f453f6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"4357\"/></p><p>在内部会议中，奥特曼鼓舞士气，称在未来几个月，OpenAI将重新夺回优势。其中关键举措之一，就是打造一款代号为“Shallotpeat”的新一代大语言模型。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/426ef21c21851844e4005686c5f0d509\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"656\"/></p><p>据知情人士透露，该模型的设计目标之一，就是专门修复OpenAI在预训练过程中遇到的种种“疑难杂症”。</p><p><strong>OpenAI：内部的风向变了</strong></p><p>GPT-5发布的实质是什么？</p><p>对现有ChatGPT用户而言，GPT-5是个好消息，但这并未开启<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>。</p><p>它只是进化历程中的一小步，而非革命性飞跃。</p><p>既然更多算力通常意味着更强性能，为何OpenAI会反其道而行？这对未来模型发展意味着什么？</p><p>在与a16z合伙人Martin Casado对话中，OpenAI平台工程负责人Sherwin Wu，深度拆解了OpenAI当前平台架构、定价逻辑与未来方向。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c40b2ba267dde1f05f4ec328eeb02c6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p>在这次访谈中，他们深入探讨了为何开发者往往会长期依赖某个“值得信赖”的模型系列，信任感是如何建立的，以及为什么行业已经逐步放弃了“一个模型通吃所有任务”的幻想。</p><p>Sherwin还讲解了从提示词工程到上下文设计的演变过程，以及企业如何借助OpenAI的微调（fine-tuning）和RFT API，利用自有数据定制模型行为。</p><p><strong>共识已变</strong></p><p>几年前，OpenAI内部认为：未来会有一个“统治一切”的超级模型。但现在行业共识已经转变为“模型的专业化和多样化”。</p><p>虽然会有强大的通用模型，但也需要针对特定任务（如编程Codex、视频Sora）的专用模型。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ffb70725eae1fb889e3782b87239bba\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"591\"/></p><p>文本、图像、视频背后的技术堆栈各不同。目前，在后台。这些模型往往是分开优化的独立系统，很难简单地“一锅炖”。</p><p>顺便提一句，正是DALL-E 2的出现让Sherwin决定加入OpenAI，因为那是他第一次感受到AI的魔力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e12233fa906f34344941cdb25a9810\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"934\"/></p><p><strong>而微调（Fine-tuning）也悄然进化——</strong></p><p>早期的微调，主要用于调整“语气”或“指令遵循”。 现在的重头戏，是强化学习微调（Reinforcement Fine-Tuning） 。</p><p>这允许企业利用其庞大的专有数据（Data Treasure Troves），将较小的模型在特定领域训练至SOTA水平。这是解锁企业数据的关键。</p><p>也就是说，企业拥有大量内部数据，但与ChatGPT“毫无关系”，对企业专属AI而言却是黄金。</p><p>他们多次提到AI代码编辑器Cursor作为建立在 OpenAI API 之上的成功产品案例，证明了：</p><p>即使OpenAI自己有竞品，开发者依然可以建立伟大的垂直应用。</p><p><strong>Agent开发模式</strong></p><p>从第一天起，奥特曼和Greg Brockman就确立了“App+ API”的双轨战略。</p><p>这样做是为了尽可能广泛地分发AGI的利益——</p><p>如果只做 API，你就无法触达普通消费者；如果只做应用，你就无法赋能各行各业的开发者。</p><p>在这次对话中，他们重点谈论了智能体开发工具“Agent Builder”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201dfae6a43449d8005d3da7970dee23\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"619\"/></p><p>Sherwin认为，智能体（Agent）并非一种全新的模态，而是AI的一种新使用方式。</p><p>本质上，智能体是一个能够代表用户、在<strong>较长的时间跨度</strong>（Long Time Horizons）内执行一系列操作并完成任务的AI系统。</p><p>OpenAI曾推出了可视化的“Agent Builder”（节点式构建），但发现对于开发者而言，这种方式可能过于受限。</p><p>访谈中，Sherwin和Martin将智能体清晰地划分为两类，这解释了为什么目前市面上的Agent产品形态各异——</p><p>探索型/非定向工作 (Undirected/Exploratory Work)</p><p>流程型/SOP导向工作 (Procedural/SOP-oriented Work)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60688c8a0e1f7ff3a88cde86be9dc509\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"1168\"/></p><p><strong>在对话中，第二类</strong>Agent开发可能更像传统的软件工程或游戏开发中的<strong>NPC（非玩家角色）逻辑</strong>。</p><p>与其让模型完全自由发挥，不如通过代码给予它明确的逻辑框架和标准操作程序（SOP），特别是在受监管的行业（如客户支持、金融）。</p><p>也就是说，<strong>逻辑必须写死在代码里，而不是提示词里。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0febfd6f41c50dad6d657fa232544d55\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"573\"/></p><p>这就是Agent Builder想要解决的问题：为那些必须控制智能体行为的行业和场景，提供一个简单、清晰、可验证的解决方案。</p><p><strong>One More Thing</strong></p><p>2025年度压轴大戏，谷歌Gemini 3 Pro无疑打了一场胜仗，但OpenAI不会袖手旁观。</p><p>内部已确认，圣诞节前夕，一连串发布连番轰炸。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/068139b0bfd7eab3ce6848402d785da0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><p>据传，一系列新模型，在路上了——</p><p>Image Gen v2</p><p>IMO和IOI金牌多模态模型</p><p>GPT-5.2 Codex</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7469baa6b21e416b62badf3a90092a1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"358\"/></p><p>12月，AI圈一定非常热闹。</p><p> </p></body></html>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>OpenAI大溃败！GPT-5“换皮”GPT-4o，两年半预训练0突破</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpenAI大溃败！GPT-5“换皮”GPT-4o，两年半预训练0突破\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-30 14:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Y4nvwCeB8xXXPD4-MEeNeg><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>OpenAI被曝陷入严重技术停滞——其最新发布的GPT-5实质仍是基于GPT-4o架构的优化版本，自2022年GPT-4发布后长达两年半期间未能实现预训练技术的实质性突破。与此同时，谷歌凭借TPUv7在预训练领域突飞猛进，迫使OpenAI紧急启动新模型研发计划以应对技术落后危机。OpenAI核心预训练，接连翻车？传言称，GPT-5的基石仍是GPT-4o，且GPT-4.5之后的预训练版本，都被...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Y4nvwCeB8xXXPD4-MEeNeg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf31e5a2ea5c40f9fab4d1b4548dc76d","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Y4nvwCeB8xXXPD4-MEeNeg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2587795167","content_text":"OpenAI被曝陷入严重技术停滞——其最新发布的GPT-5实质仍是基于GPT-4o架构的优化版本，自2022年GPT-4发布后长达两年半期间未能实现预训练技术的实质性突破。与此同时，谷歌凭借TPUv7在预训练领域突飞猛进，迫使OpenAI紧急启动新模型研发计划以应对技术落后危机。OpenAI核心预训练，接连翻车？传言称，GPT-5的基石仍是GPT-4o，且GPT-4.5之后的预训练版本，都被OpenAI放弃了！这么说并非空穴来风，核心爆料恰恰来自权威SemiAnalysis的最新一文——OpenAI顶尖团队自GPT-4o发布之后，迄今尚未完成一次完整的，为下一代前沿模型设计的大规模预训练。文章中，高级分析师强调：谷歌正手持TPUv7这把利剑，向英伟达王座发起冲锋，或将终结CUDA护城河。众所周知，OpenAI全栈模型是在纯英伟达GPU上炼出的。然而，圈内人的焦点，大都放在了大模型“推理”和“后训练”的硬件之上。殊不知，没有前沿模型的预训练，一切皆是“无米之炊”。恰恰这一环节，成为了AI硬件里最难、最耗资源的一关。如今，一个不为人知的内幕爆出了：事实证明，谷歌TPU彻底经受住了这一考验；相较之下，自2024年5月GPT-4o诞生之后，OpenAI的预训练却毫无进展.....过去，两年半的时间，OpenAI没有真正Scaling预训练的规模。GPT的预训练，或许在GPT-4o之后触及了天花板，由此也解释了GPT-5性能未达业界预期的关键原因。有网友表示，那不正是Ilya离开的时候吗.....恰在昨天，Ilya最新发文称，Scaling不会停，但某个重要的东西仍然会缺失。OpenAI预训练，大溃败还记得去年底，那场铺天盖地的“Orion”传闻吗？这一秘密项目，原定以GPT-5面世，但因训练未达预期，最终被降级为GPT-4.5发布。在前沿模型预训练上，OpenAI的研发似乎陷入了僵局——如今第五代旗舰模型GPT-5，包括最新GPT-5.1，其“技术根基”本质或仍未突破GPT-4o的范畴。SemiAnalysis去年底一篇文章，曾对外公开了Orion训练的困境。当前，算法的进步使得模型每年所需的物理计算量减少约三分之一，因此，训练运行时间很少超过3个月。甚至，行业中大多数预训练通常仅需要1-2个月。然而，OpenAI的Orion大规模预训练，却打破了这一常规，其训练时间超过了3个月。另据Information同一时间爆出，Orion不会像前代实现巨大的飞跃，相较于从GPT-3到GPT-4的迭代，改进幅度要小得多。不仅如此，Orion性能提升也基本局限在——语言能力上，其代码能力甚至不如旧模型，且成本更高。如今再回看2月，GPT-4.5的诞生，基于代号Orion的模型，OpenAI追求的是：更强的语言能力+更稳的对话体验+更大知识库情商，成为了GPT-4.5的关键词。代码虽有提升，但并非主菜。这一切的一切，从侧面印证了，此前外媒关于“Orion遇挫”爆料的准确性——LLM有提升，但不大。GPT-4o，成Scaling主线？今年8月，GPT-5的那场发布，奥特曼将其定调为“博士级AI，是通往AGI又一里程碑”。实则，业界对于GPT-5的反响，唏嘘一片。大家原本以为，GPT-5会是全面超越前代的一次飞跃，但实际发布后，更像是GPT-4.5的进一步优化版，不是“颠覆版”。但至于GPT-5真正基于哪一款GPT打造，还有待证实。正如之前传闻的猜测，有可能是GPT-4o，还有Reddit网友称是GPT-4.1....但不论是哪一款，都证明了GPT-5，没有在全新前沿模型的大规模预训练上淬炼。搞笑的，那个曾将OpenAI三颗????????????“焊在”名字中的大佬，如今改成了三个????????????。他表示，这已经不是什么秘密了——GPT-4.5将预训练推向极致之后，OpenAI加倍投入了推理范式，主打o系列+RL。不同的是，谷歌和Anthropic仍在Scaling预训练，并增强了强化学习。OpenAI主动放弃了这一范式，为劲敌让出了一条速通道。奥特曼：这事儿瞒不住了！Gemini 3发布后，谷歌和OpenAI攻守之势易形——Gemini 3来势汹汹，而OpenAI这次终于坐不住了！据泄露的内部备忘录，奥特曼坦言：“近期， 从各方面来看，谷歌在大语言模型表现出色”，特别是预训练。这番表态标志OpenAI的重大转变——它终于承认，一个重新崛起的竞争对手与逐渐降温的企业需求，已彻底打破了其“天下无敌”的光环。所谓预训练，是训练生成式AI模型（无论是文本还是图像）过程中的第一阶段。在这一阶段，研究人员会用网页等大量数据“投喂”模型，让它掌握数据之间的各种关联。大语言模型（LLM）开发与训练流程概述：预训练和后训练是关键在预训练领域，谷歌取得了新突破，给Gemini 3带来了空前的推理深度。这让不少AI研究者颇感意外——毕竟，OpenAI去年曾屡屡碰壁，而谷歌自己过去也曾陷入瓶颈。正因如此，在一段时间内，OpenAI选择将更多精力转向另一种新型AI架构——“推理模型”，这种模型虽然计算量更大，但有望输出更优质的回答。在推出GPT-5之前，OpenAI团队曾尝试对预训练阶段做出一系列调整，这些方法在小模型上有效，一旦模型变大就失效了。GPT-5发布第二天，西班牙与波兰Talan公司AI应用负责人Javier Alba de Alba表示：(GPT-5）整体观感颇为失望：这是个优秀的模型——响应迅捷、价格亲民、能力全面，但远非人们基于OpenAI过往发布会所预期的代际飞跃。GPT-5带来了不少提升——编程能力显著提升、推理能力进阶、幻觉现象减少、医疗领域表现优化，甚至免费用户也享有更长的默认使用时长。此外命名体系全面简化：GPT-4o/4.1/turbo/mini等繁杂名称悉数消失，统一更名为GPT-5。不过，Javier Alba de Alba提醒：“千万不要被名称迷惑：GPT-5并非新一代产品。”他解释道：技术层面而言，它更像是GPT-4o的功能增强版，即便命名为GPT-4.2也毫不违和。OpenAI此举虽完成了必要的名称统一，但整场发布会未能达到预期，让技术社区颇感失落。GPT-5发布后，Epoch AI也发现了其中的异常：相比前代GPT-4.5，GPT-5很可能消耗了更少的训练算力。虽然具体数值尚未公开，但GPT-4.5使用的训练算力极有可能超过GPT-5。预训练并未消亡，它依然是胜负关键。在内部会议中，奥特曼鼓舞士气，称在未来几个月，OpenAI将重新夺回优势。其中关键举措之一，就是打造一款代号为“Shallotpeat”的新一代大语言模型。据知情人士透露，该模型的设计目标之一，就是专门修复OpenAI在预训练过程中遇到的种种“疑难杂症”。OpenAI：内部的风向变了GPT-5发布的实质是什么？对现有ChatGPT用户而言，GPT-5是个好消息，但这并未开启新时代。它只是进化历程中的一小步，而非革命性飞跃。既然更多算力通常意味着更强性能，为何OpenAI会反其道而行？这对未来模型发展意味着什么？在与a16z合伙人Martin Casado对话中，OpenAI平台工程负责人Sherwin Wu，深度拆解了OpenAI当前平台架构、定价逻辑与未来方向。在这次访谈中，他们深入探讨了为何开发者往往会长期依赖某个“值得信赖”的模型系列，信任感是如何建立的，以及为什么行业已经逐步放弃了“一个模型通吃所有任务”的幻想。Sherwin还讲解了从提示词工程到上下文设计的演变过程，以及企业如何借助OpenAI的微调（fine-tuning）和RFT API，利用自有数据定制模型行为。共识已变几年前，OpenAI内部认为：未来会有一个“统治一切”的超级模型。但现在行业共识已经转变为“模型的专业化和多样化”。虽然会有强大的通用模型，但也需要针对特定任务（如编程Codex、视频Sora）的专用模型。文本、图像、视频背后的技术堆栈各不同。目前，在后台。这些模型往往是分开优化的独立系统，很难简单地“一锅炖”。顺便提一句，正是DALL-E 2的出现让Sherwin决定加入OpenAI，因为那是他第一次感受到AI的魔力。而微调（Fine-tuning）也悄然进化——早期的微调，主要用于调整“语气”或“指令遵循”。 现在的重头戏，是强化学习微调（Reinforcement Fine-Tuning） 。这允许企业利用其庞大的专有数据（Data Treasure Troves），将较小的模型在特定领域训练至SOTA水平。这是解锁企业数据的关键。也就是说，企业拥有大量内部数据，但与ChatGPT“毫无关系”，对企业专属AI而言却是黄金。他们多次提到AI代码编辑器Cursor作为建立在 OpenAI API 之上的成功产品案例，证明了：即使OpenAI自己有竞品，开发者依然可以建立伟大的垂直应用。Agent开发模式从第一天起，奥特曼和Greg Brockman就确立了“App+ API”的双轨战略。这样做是为了尽可能广泛地分发AGI的利益——如果只做 API，你就无法触达普通消费者；如果只做应用，你就无法赋能各行各业的开发者。在这次对话中，他们重点谈论了智能体开发工具“Agent Builder”。Sherwin认为，智能体（Agent）并非一种全新的模态，而是AI的一种新使用方式。本质上，智能体是一个能够代表用户、在较长的时间跨度（Long Time Horizons）内执行一系列操作并完成任务的AI系统。OpenAI曾推出了可视化的“Agent Builder”（节点式构建），但发现对于开发者而言，这种方式可能过于受限。访谈中，Sherwin和Martin将智能体清晰地划分为两类，这解释了为什么目前市面上的Agent产品形态各异——探索型/非定向工作 (Undirected/Exploratory Work)流程型/SOP导向工作 (Procedural/SOP-oriented Work)在对话中，第二类Agent开发可能更像传统的软件工程或游戏开发中的NPC（非玩家角色）逻辑。与其让模型完全自由发挥，不如通过代码给予它明确的逻辑框架和标准操作程序（SOP），特别是在受监管的行业（如客户支持、金融）。也就是说，逻辑必须写死在代码里，而不是提示词里。这就是Agent Builder想要解决的问题：为那些必须控制智能体行为的行业和场景，提供一个简单、清晰、可验证的解决方案。One More Thing2025年度压轴大戏，谷歌Gemini 3 Pro无疑打了一场胜仗，但OpenAI不会袖手旁观。内部已确认，圣诞节前夕，一连串发布连番轰炸。据传，一系列新模型，在路上了——Image Gen v2IMO和IOI金牌多模态模型GPT-5.2 Codex12月，AI圈一定非常热闹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499621841084480,"gmtCreate":1763003097093,"gmtModify":1763003098819,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a> 你是真能跌啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a> 你是真能跌啊","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 你是真能跌啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499621841084480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499003349836608,"gmtCreate":1762852667936,"gmtModify":1762852670922,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4091694951342570\">@哇咔哇咔哇咔</a>:下次用//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4091694951342570\">@哇咔哇咔哇咔</a>:开盘前发这个不是晚了吗，期权也交易不了","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4091694951342570\">@哇咔哇咔哇咔</a>:下次用//<a 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@哇咔哇咔哇咔:下次用//@哇咔哇咔哇咔:开盘前发这个不是晚了吗，期权也交易不了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/499003349836608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":498934341182256,"gmtCreate":1762835374510,"gmtModify":1762835376840,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你不要过来啊","listText":"你不要过来啊","text":"你不要过来啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/498934341182256","repostId":"2582333868","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2582333868","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1762829144,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2582333868?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-11 10:45","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”切换“战斗模式”！Burry：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582333868","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>&#34;大空头&#34;Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以预测2008年金融危机而闻名的“大空头”Michael Burry再次将矛头对准科技巨头。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">11月11日，Michael Burry在其社交平台发帖称，<strong>科技巨头通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益</strong>。<strong>他估计从2026年到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry承诺将在11月25日披露更多细节。他特别指出，<strong>到2028年，甲骨文的利润可能被夸大26.9%，而Meta的利润可能被夸大20.8%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，此前他曾披露持有英伟达和Palantir看跌期权，这再度引发市场对其看空AI行业立场的关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，摩根士丹利和美国银行等华尔街投行也已发出警告，认为<strong>市场严重低估了当前AI投资的真实规模，且对未来折旧费用的冲击准备不足，这可能导致科技巨头的真实盈利能力远低于市场预期。</strong></p><h2 id=\"efffd80b\">会计“戏法”，延长硬件寿命以平滑成本</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burry认为科技巨头正在会计处理上玩“把戏”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他在其X平台的帖子中指出，科技巨头们通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益，而这是“现代最常见的欺诈之一”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，<strong>在科技公司大规模采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力的背景下，这些通常只有2至3年产品周期的计算设备，其折旧年限不应被延长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，包括Meta、Alphabet、微软、甲骨文和亚马逊在内的“超大规模”玩家们却正是这么做的，一些公司甚至将折旧周期延长至6年。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad289aa18c6e902f42ae0de3dac53393\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"411\"/></p><p>(科技巨头每年关于服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命)</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，亚马逊在2025年第一季度已将部分服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命从六年缩短至五年，理由正是AI技术发展的加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一旦这种趋势逆转并扩大，将导致折旧费用被加速确认，对短期盈利造成冲击。</strong></p><h2 id=\"3f62a55b\">折旧“定时炸弹”，市场尚未消化未来的盈利冲击</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>此前美银也曾认为，华尔街对未来折旧费用的增长速度“反应迟钝”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美银分析师Justin Post在报告中指出，随着谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据其测算，到2027年，仅这三家公司的折旧费用，<strong>市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来的实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>此外，AI资产的“短寿”问题加剧了这一风险。</strong>用于AI计算的GPU等硬件技术迭代快、负荷高，有效寿命可能仅为三到五年。这一趋势与科技巨头延长设备使用年限的做法背道而驰。</p><h2 id=\"a34dfe99\">华尔街的警钟，被低估的资本开支与“表外”扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利的研究则强调科技巨头AI资本开支强度正逼近互联网泡沫时期的峰值水平，但公开数据并未完全反映投资全貌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>摩根士丹利强调，两大因素导致了实际投资规模被低估。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先</strong>是融资租赁的兴起。微软和甲骨文等公司正越来越多地通过此种“表外”工具建设数据中心，其初始投资不计入传统的资本支出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据该行估算，计入融资租赁后，微软2026财年的资本支出与销售额之比将从28%跃升至38%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其次</strong>是“在建工程（CIP）”的延迟效应，大量已支出的资本沉淀在资产负债表上，尚未开始计提折旧，其对利润的冲击才刚刚开始。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行则警告称，<strong>AI基础设施市场可能重演历史上因激进投资导致产能过剩和价格战的模式</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美银认为，如果供应增长持续超过需求，最早在2027年，行业内可能会爆发更激进的定价策略</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>届时，为了维持数据中心的利用率，超大规模厂商可能被迫降价，从而侵蚀其盈利能力。这一预测，也为Burry关于科技巨头盈利能力虚高的观点提供了另一层面的佐证。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“大空头”切换“战斗模式”！Burry：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”切换“战斗模式”！Burry：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-11 10:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>&#34;大空头&#34;Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">以预测2008年金融危机而闻名的“大空头”Michael Burry再次将矛头对准科技巨头。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">11月11日，Michael Burry在其社交平台发帖称，<strong>科技巨头通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益</strong>。<strong>他估计从2026年到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Burry承诺将在11月25日披露更多细节。他特别指出，<strong>到2028年，甲骨文的利润可能被夸大26.9%，而Meta的利润可能被夸大20.8%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，此前他曾披露持有英伟达和Palantir看跌期权，这再度引发市场对其看空AI行业立场的关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前，摩根士丹利和美国银行等华尔街投行也已发出警告，认为<strong>市场严重低估了当前AI投资的真实规模，且对未来折旧费用的冲击准备不足，这可能导致科技巨头的真实盈利能力远低于市场预期。</strong></p><h2 id=\"efffd80b\">会计“戏法”，延长硬件寿命以平滑成本</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Burry认为科技巨头正在会计处理上玩“把戏”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他在其X平台的帖子中指出，科技巨头们通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益，而这是“现代最常见的欺诈之一”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，<strong>在科技公司大规模采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力的背景下，这些通常只有2至3年产品周期的计算设备，其折旧年限不应被延长。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，包括Meta、Alphabet、微软、甲骨文和亚马逊在内的“超大规模”玩家们却正是这么做的，一些公司甚至将折旧周期延长至6年。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad289aa18c6e902f42ae0de3dac53393\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"411\"/></p><p>(科技巨头每年关于服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命)</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，亚马逊在2025年第一季度已将部分服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命从六年缩短至五年，理由正是AI技术发展的加速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>一旦这种趋势逆转并扩大，将导致折旧费用被加速确认，对短期盈利造成冲击。</strong></p><h2 id=\"3f62a55b\">折旧“定时炸弹”，市场尚未消化未来的盈利冲击</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>此前美银也曾认为，华尔街对未来折旧费用的增长速度“反应迟钝”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美银分析师Justin Post在报告中指出，随着谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据其测算，到2027年，仅这三家公司的折旧费用，<strong>市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来的实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>此外，AI资产的“短寿”问题加剧了这一风险。</strong>用于AI计算的GPU等硬件技术迭代快、负荷高，有效寿命可能仅为三到五年。这一趋势与科技巨头延长设备使用年限的做法背道而驰。</p><h2 id=\"a34dfe99\">华尔街的警钟，被低估的资本开支与“表外”扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利的研究则强调科技巨头AI资本开支强度正逼近互联网泡沫时期的峰值水平，但公开数据并未完全反映投资全貌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>摩根士丹利强调，两大因素导致了实际投资规模被低估。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>首先</strong>是融资租赁的兴起。微软和甲骨文等公司正越来越多地通过此种“表外”工具建设数据中心，其初始投资不计入传统的资本支出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据该行估算，计入融资租赁后，微软2026财年的资本支出与销售额之比将从28%跃升至38%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其次</strong>是“在建工程（CIP）”的延迟效应，大量已支出的资本沉淀在资产负债表上，尚未开始计提折旧，其对利润的冲击才刚刚开始。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行则警告称，<strong>AI基础设施市场可能重演历史上因激进投资导致产能过剩和价格战的模式</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美银认为，如果供应增长持续超过需求，最早在2027年，行业内可能会爆发更激进的定价策略</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>届时，为了维持数据中心的利用率，超大规模厂商可能被迫降价，从而侵蚀其盈利能力。这一预测，也为Burry关于科技巨头盈利能力虚高的观点提供了另一层面的佐证。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759101","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2582333868","content_text":"\"大空头\"Michael Burry指出AI芯片等设备实际寿命仅2-3年，但部分公司将折旧周期延长至6年。他预计从2026到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。摩根士丹利和美银也曾发出警告，未来折旧费用激增将严重冲击科技巨头盈利能力。以预测2008年金融危机而闻名的“大空头”Michael Burry再次将矛头对准科技巨头。11月11日，Michael Burry在其社交平台发帖称，科技巨头通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益。他估计从2026年到2028年，大型科技公司将因低估折旧而虚增1760亿美元的利润。Burry承诺将在11月25日披露更多细节。他特别指出，到2028年，甲骨文的利润可能被夸大26.9%，而Meta的利润可能被夸大20.8%。值得注意的是，此前他曾披露持有英伟达和Palantir看跌期权，这再度引发市场对其看空AI行业立场的关注。此前，摩根士丹利和美国银行等华尔街投行也已发出警告，认为市场严重低估了当前AI投资的真实规模，且对未来折旧费用的冲击准备不足，这可能导致科技巨头的真实盈利能力远低于市场预期。会计“戏法”，延长硬件寿命以平滑成本Burry认为科技巨头正在会计处理上玩“把戏”。他在其X平台的帖子中指出，科技巨头们通过延长资产的“有效使用寿命”来低估折旧，从而人为地抬高收益，而这是“现代最常见的欺诈之一”。他认为，在科技公司大规模采购英伟达芯片和服务器以扩充算力的背景下，这些通常只有2至3年产品周期的计算设备，其折旧年限不应被延长。然而，包括Meta、Alphabet、微软、甲骨文和亚马逊在内的“超大规模”玩家们却正是这么做的，一些公司甚至将折旧周期延长至6年。(科技巨头每年关于服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命)不过，亚马逊在2025年第一季度已将部分服务器和网络设备的预计使用寿命从六年缩短至五年，理由正是AI技术发展的加速。一旦这种趋势逆转并扩大，将导致折旧费用被加速确认，对短期盈利造成冲击。折旧“定时炸弹”，市场尚未消化未来的盈利冲击此前美银也曾认为，华尔街对未来折旧费用的增长速度“反应迟钝”。美银分析师Justin Post在报告中指出，随着谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的资本支出在2024年和2025年大幅增长，其折旧费用必然会在2026年后加速。据其测算，到2027年，仅这三家公司的折旧费用，市场普遍预测就可能比实际情况低了近164亿美元，这意味着它们未来的实际盈利能力或远低于当前的市场共识。此外，AI资产的“短寿”问题加剧了这一风险。用于AI计算的GPU等硬件技术迭代快、负荷高，有效寿命可能仅为三到五年。这一趋势与科技巨头延长设备使用年限的做法背道而驰。华尔街的警钟，被低估的资本开支与“表外”扩张摩根士丹利的研究则强调科技巨头AI资本开支强度正逼近互联网泡沫时期的峰值水平，但公开数据并未完全反映投资全貌。摩根士丹利强调，两大因素导致了实际投资规模被低估。首先是融资租赁的兴起。微软和甲骨文等公司正越来越多地通过此种“表外”工具建设数据中心，其初始投资不计入传统的资本支出。据该行估算，计入融资租赁后，微软2026财年的资本支出与销售额之比将从28%跃升至38%。其次是“在建工程（CIP）”的延迟效应，大量已支出的资本沉淀在资产负债表上，尚未开始计提折旧，其对利润的冲击才刚刚开始。美国银行则警告称，AI基础设施市场可能重演历史上因激进投资导致产能过剩和价格战的模式。美银认为，如果供应增长持续超过需求，最早在2027年，行业内可能会爆发更激进的定价策略。届时，为了维持数据中心的利用率，超大规模厂商可能被迫降价，从而侵蚀其盈利能力。这一预测，也为Burry关于科技巨头盈利能力虚高的观点提供了另一层面的佐证。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.5,"META":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497709703349088,"gmtCreate":1762534000122,"gmtModify":1762534032356,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 要不要买两张put对冲 有点担心[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 要不要买两张put对冲 有点担心[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$ 要不要买两张put对冲 有点担心[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497709703349088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":492323352846400,"gmtCreate":1761216834714,"gmtModify":1761216837091,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574718097407891","authorIdStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么意思？ 预计支出90亿 实际2亿？","listText":"什么意思？ 预计支出90亿 实际2亿？","text":"什么意思？ 预计支出90亿 实际2亿？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492323352846400","repostId":"1192268016","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192268016","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1761214272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192268016?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-23 18:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉预计2025年的资本支出约90亿美元，低于市场预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192268016","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月23日，$特斯拉(TSLA)$：目前预计2025年的资本支出约为90亿美元，此前预计超过90亿美元，市场预期为99.6亿美元。现行关税制度对能源生产与储能业务的影响将相对大于对汽车业务的影响。第三季度确认了2.38亿美元的费用支出，这些费用与汽车部门的超级计算机资产、合同终止和员工解聘相关。消息发布后，特斯拉美股盘前维持3%的跌幅。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>：目前预计2025年的资本支出约为90亿美元，此前预计超过90亿美元，市场预期为99.6亿美元。</p><p>现行关税制度对能源生产与储能业务的影响将相对大于对汽车业务的影响。</p><p>第三季度确认了2.38亿美元的费用支出，这些费用与汽车部门的超级计算机资产、合同终止和员工解聘相关。</p><p>消息发布后，特斯拉美股盘前维持3%的跌幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92c6a4306a30f1af3a9b5aa03357c8e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉预计2025年的资本支出约90亿美元，低于市场预期</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉预计2025年的资本支出约90亿美元，低于市场预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-23 18:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>：目前预计2025年的资本支出约为90亿美元，此前预计超过90亿美元，市场预期为99.6亿美元。</p><p>现行关税制度对能源生产与储能业务的影响将相对大于对汽车业务的影响。</p><p>第三季度确认了2.38亿美元的费用支出，这些费用与汽车部门的超级计算机资产、合同终止和员工解聘相关。</p><p>消息发布后，特斯拉美股盘前维持3%的跌幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92c6a4306a30f1af3a9b5aa03357c8e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" 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20260417 165.0 PUT$</a> 收菜","text":"$AMD 20260417 165.0 PUT$ 收菜","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae933878ccfa6865317f36d3ad0333a","width":"933","height":"1543"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548990128772344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":480349658272232,"gmtCreate":1758296947638,"gmtModify":1758296950029,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574718097407891","idStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"open&nbsp; 这么有钱？ 又是给甲骨文大单又是千亿服务器","listText":"open&nbsp; 这么有钱？ 又是给甲骨文大单又是千亿服务器","text":"open 这么有钱？ 又是给甲骨文大单又是千亿服务器","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/480349658272232","repostId":"1185605690","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185605690","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1758294683,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185605690?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-19 23:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"预防算力危机！OpenAI计划投入1000亿美元租备用服务器","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185605690","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"OpenAI因严重算力短缺，计划五年内投入高达1000亿美元用于租用备用服务器。她表示，OpenAI目前面临“严重的算力限制”。为了解决这一问题，公司高管向部分股东透露，未来五年内，OpenAI计划在租用云服务商的备用服务器上花费约1000亿美元。届时，OpenAI的营收将超过过去12个月中英伟达或Meta的收入水平。OpenAI高管预测，该公司在备用服务器上的年度支出将在2028年达到峰值，为400亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>OpenAI因严重算力短缺，计划五年内投入高达1000亿美元用于租用备用服务器。Altman和他的管理团队认为，将来可能出现的新爆款产品或AI技术突破，将带来难以预料的算力需求激增。分析认为，虽然此举有利于OpenAI在抢占市场上占据有利位置，但这一“囤积”策略也引发是否垄断GPU资源的担忧。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体报道，今年3月，当OpenAI推出可将照片转为动画角色的ChatGPT新功能时，使用量激增，迫使该公司不得不暂时限制该功能的使用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这并不是第一次发生类似情况。根据媒体，OpenAI首席财务官Sarah Friar上周在高盛的一次会议上向投资者透露，由于算力资源短缺，公司经常被迫推迟新功能或新模型的发布，或者有意让部分产品运行变慢。她表示，OpenAI目前面临“严重的算力限制”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为了解决这一问题，<strong>公司高管向部分股东透露，未来五年内，OpenAI计划在租用云服务商的备用服务器上花费约1000亿美元。这是此前预计到2030年间为租用服务器所支出的3500亿美元之外的额外开支。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为，这个备用服务器计划反映了首席执行官Sam Altman的一个核心信念：<strong>谁掌握更多服务器，谁就在AI竞赛中拥有决定性优势。</strong>他曾告诉同事，未来OpenAI所需的算力甚至可能超过整个美国电网的供电能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据多位与OpenAI高管交流过的人士对媒体透露，Altman和他的管理团队认为，<strong>未来可能出现的新爆款产品或AI技术突破，将带来难以预料的算力需求激增。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_767373558\">算力支出大增为抢占市场</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体分析称，从Altman和Friar的公开言论来看，OpenAI已经将手中所有大型英伟达GPU集群用得满满当当。<strong>如果未来再出现一个热门功能，导致算力资源吃紧，或者因为缺乏足够服务器而无法训练有潜力的新模型，OpenAI可能会因此失去用户或业务，转而被谷歌或Meta等在算力上不那么受限的竞争对手抢占市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据公司的内部预测，算上备用服务器，OpenAI未来五年平均每年将在租用服务器上花费约850亿美元。作为对比，去年亚马逊AWS、微软、谷歌云和甲骨文这四大云服务商的客户加起来在服务器租赁上总共花费了大约2000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，OpenAI的备用服务器支出（1000亿美元）也是其长期现金流预测达1150亿美元（截至2029年）的一个重要原因。根据媒体此前的报道，公司可能需要筹集相应规模的资金。而按照目前的内部预估，公司将于2030年开始实现现金流转正。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管这笔备用服务器的支出不小，但OpenAI高管表示，这些服务器“具有变现潜力”。一位与公司高层有过交流的人士对媒体透露，这些备用算力要么可以推动技术突破、要么可以应对产品使用激增，因此有助于带来额外收入，而这部分收入目前还未被纳入公司财务预测。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据OpenAI的预测，公司营收将在2030年增长到大约2000亿美元，而今年的营收预计为130亿美元。这一增幅主要得益于ChatGPT的快速发展。届时，OpenAI的营收将超过过去12个月中英伟达或Meta的收入水平。</p><h2 id=\"id_1882334469\">会被指“囤积”GPU？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体分析称，OpenAI也可能通过其他方式降低备用服务器的成本，或者将这些资源进行变现。例如，它可以将未使用的算力返还给微软、甲骨文等提供服务器的云服务商——前提是对方愿意接受。也可以尝试将这些服务器租给其他企业客户。但目前还不清楚有哪些公司愿意、也有能力承担如此高昂的费用，此外也不确定云服务商是否允许OpenAI转租其资源。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>如果OpenAI既无法自己用完这些服务器，也找不到其他客户，就可能被外界批评为“囤积GPU”。而几乎承载了OpenAI所有算力的英伟达，显然不希望出现这种情况，因为这将限制其他公司的GPU获取，从而促使它们转而使用竞争对手的AI芯片。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">OpenAI高管预测，该公司在备用服务器上的年度支出将在2028年达到峰值，为400亿美元。目前尚不清楚为何此后支出会明显下降，但OpenAI已表示，未来将自行开发数据中心和芯片，这可能有助于填补这一缺口。Friar在高盛会议上表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“我们希望OpenAI成为一家真正的全栈公司。”</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体表示，硅谷的创始人和高管们对“爆款产品导致服务器不足”这一风险非常熟悉。比如20多年前迅速走红的社交网站Friendster就因频繁宕机而让出市场，最终被竞争对手超越。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年里，OpenAI也多次出现服务中断，最长达数小时。但尽管如此，ChatGPT依然稳居聊天机器人市场领先地位。公司预计，到今年年底，ChatGPT的每周活跃用户将达到10亿人，而在7月，这一数字刚刚突破7亿。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1700700604709","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n预防算力危机！OpenAI计划投入1000亿美元租备用服务器\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-19 23:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755932><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>OpenAI因严重算力短缺，计划五年内投入高达1000亿美元用于租用备用服务器。Altman和他的管理团队认为，将来可能出现的新爆款产品或AI技术突破，将带来难以预料的算力需求激增。分析认为，虽然此举有利于OpenAI在抢占市场上占据有利位置，但这一“囤积”策略也引发是否垄断GPU资源的担忧。媒体报道，今年3月，当OpenAI推出可将照片转为动画角色的ChatGPT新功能时，使用量激增，迫使该公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755932\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db2623a0358500fd874194b4f9aef16b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755932","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185605690","content_text":"OpenAI因严重算力短缺，计划五年内投入高达1000亿美元用于租用备用服务器。Altman和他的管理团队认为，将来可能出现的新爆款产品或AI技术突破，将带来难以预料的算力需求激增。分析认为，虽然此举有利于OpenAI在抢占市场上占据有利位置，但这一“囤积”策略也引发是否垄断GPU资源的担忧。媒体报道，今年3月，当OpenAI推出可将照片转为动画角色的ChatGPT新功能时，使用量激增，迫使该公司不得不暂时限制该功能的使用。这并不是第一次发生类似情况。根据媒体，OpenAI首席财务官Sarah Friar上周在高盛的一次会议上向投资者透露，由于算力资源短缺，公司经常被迫推迟新功能或新模型的发布，或者有意让部分产品运行变慢。她表示，OpenAI目前面临“严重的算力限制”。为了解决这一问题，公司高管向部分股东透露，未来五年内，OpenAI计划在租用云服务商的备用服务器上花费约1000亿美元。这是此前预计到2030年间为租用服务器所支出的3500亿美元之外的额外开支。分析认为，这个备用服务器计划反映了首席执行官Sam Altman的一个核心信念：谁掌握更多服务器，谁就在AI竞赛中拥有决定性优势。他曾告诉同事，未来OpenAI所需的算力甚至可能超过整个美国电网的供电能力。据多位与OpenAI高管交流过的人士对媒体透露，Altman和他的管理团队认为，未来可能出现的新爆款产品或AI技术突破，将带来难以预料的算力需求激增。算力支出大增为抢占市场媒体分析称，从Altman和Friar的公开言论来看，OpenAI已经将手中所有大型英伟达GPU集群用得满满当当。如果未来再出现一个热门功能，导致算力资源吃紧，或者因为缺乏足够服务器而无法训练有潜力的新模型，OpenAI可能会因此失去用户或业务，转而被谷歌或Meta等在算力上不那么受限的竞争对手抢占市场。根据公司的内部预测，算上备用服务器，OpenAI未来五年平均每年将在租用服务器上花费约850亿美元。作为对比，去年亚马逊AWS、微软、谷歌云和甲骨文这四大云服务商的客户加起来在服务器租赁上总共花费了大约2000亿美元。此外，OpenAI的备用服务器支出（1000亿美元）也是其长期现金流预测达1150亿美元（截至2029年）的一个重要原因。根据媒体此前的报道，公司可能需要筹集相应规模的资金。而按照目前的内部预估，公司将于2030年开始实现现金流转正。尽管这笔备用服务器的支出不小，但OpenAI高管表示，这些服务器“具有变现潜力”。一位与公司高层有过交流的人士对媒体透露，这些备用算力要么可以推动技术突破、要么可以应对产品使用激增，因此有助于带来额外收入，而这部分收入目前还未被纳入公司财务预测。根据OpenAI的预测，公司营收将在2030年增长到大约2000亿美元，而今年的营收预计为130亿美元。这一增幅主要得益于ChatGPT的快速发展。届时，OpenAI的营收将超过过去12个月中英伟达或Meta的收入水平。会被指“囤积”GPU？媒体分析称，OpenAI也可能通过其他方式降低备用服务器的成本，或者将这些资源进行变现。例如，它可以将未使用的算力返还给微软、甲骨文等提供服务器的云服务商——前提是对方愿意接受。也可以尝试将这些服务器租给其他企业客户。但目前还不清楚有哪些公司愿意、也有能力承担如此高昂的费用，此外也不确定云服务商是否允许OpenAI转租其资源。如果OpenAI既无法自己用完这些服务器，也找不到其他客户，就可能被外界批评为“囤积GPU”。而几乎承载了OpenAI所有算力的英伟达，显然不希望出现这种情况，因为这将限制其他公司的GPU获取，从而促使它们转而使用竞争对手的AI芯片。OpenAI高管预测，该公司在备用服务器上的年度支出将在2028年达到峰值，为400亿美元。目前尚不清楚为何此后支出会明显下降，但OpenAI已表示，未来将自行开发数据中心和芯片，这可能有助于填补这一缺口。Friar在高盛会议上表示：“我们希望OpenAI成为一家真正的全栈公司。”媒体表示，硅谷的创始人和高管们对“爆款产品导致服务器不足”这一风险非常熟悉。比如20多年前迅速走红的社交网站Friendster就因频繁宕机而让出市场，最终被竞争对手超越。过去一年里，OpenAI也多次出现服务中断，最长达数小时。但尽管如此，ChatGPT依然稳居聊天机器人市场领先地位。公司预计，到今年年底，ChatGPT的每周活跃用户将达到10亿人，而在7月，这一数字刚刚突破7亿。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472532348212000","authorId":"3472532348212000","name":"chenx32401","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3472532348212000","idStr":"3472532348212000"},"content":"OpenAI跟微软签了新合约，每年可以不用再向爹进贡500亿","text":"OpenAI跟微软签了新合约，每年可以不用再向爹进贡500亿","html":"OpenAI跟微软签了新合约，每年可以不用再向爹进贡500亿"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507594752094808,"gmtCreate":1764955102848,"gmtModify":1765160790987,"author":{"id":"3574718097407891","authorId":"3574718097407891","name":"别买期权","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a2ae1e33f0e1037fc71be5a9dd2fc0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574718097407891","idStr":"3574718097407891"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLL\">$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$&nbsp;</a>又到高点了 sell call 赚点小钱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20251205 460.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20251205 460.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLL\">$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$&nbsp;</a>又到高点了 sell call 赚点小钱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20251205 460.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20251205 460.0 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$ 又到高点了 sell call 赚点小钱$TSLA 20251205 460.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b7a8378209b3148a977e799ce1d9378","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507594752094808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000497","authorId":"9000000000000497","name":"MabelReed","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000497","idStr":"9000000000000497"},"content":"高位sell call稳赚，这波操作可以！[强]","text":"高位sell call稳赚，这波操作可以！[强]","html":"高位sell call稳赚，这波操作可以！[强]"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}