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Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>👊🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>👊🏻","text":"$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$👊🏻","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5933d4bfdb1220aebe4cf9a23b6396e2","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894140751","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893720087,"gmtCreate":1628301734749,"gmtModify":1633751838767,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574646370578928","idStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🔥","listText":"🔥","text":"🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893720087","repostId":"1124487485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124487485","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628258241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124487485?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 21:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124487485","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.\n\nThe U.S. stock market is nearing a to","content":"<p> <b>S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.</b> The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.</p><p><blockquote><b>标普500板块相对强弱排名亮红灯。</b>根据基于标普500 SPX过去三个月回报率的领先指标，美国股市已接近顶部，+0.08%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.</p><p><blockquote>在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月里，出现了一种相当可预测的模式，即哪些行业表现最好，哪些行业表现最差。目前，这些行业近期相对实力的排名与这种模式相当接近。</blockquote></p><p> This is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.</p><p><blockquote>自5月中旬以来，这是一个很大的变化，正如我所报道的，当时这一领先指标没有检测到任何即将出现麻烦的迹象。当时过去三个月回报最好的行业并不是那些通常在顶部之前领先市场的行业，而过去三个月回报最差的行业也不是那些通常滞后的行业。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，这些行业的相对实力排名与过去顶部出现的典型模式之间存在明显的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research进行的研究，公用事业、能源和金融是自1970年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最差的标普500板块。如下图所示，这三个行业目前在过去三个月的回报率排名中处于或接近底部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8465aa12910238871b10168546466b1f\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"1272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，根据Ned Davis Research的数据，必需消费品、医疗保健和非必需消费品是在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月内平均表现最好的行业。如图所示，这三者在过去三个月的表现相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> To quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化行业相对强弱排名向看跌方向转变的程度，请考虑我计算的相关系数。这一统计数据的范围从1.0的高点（这意味着行业近期回报的排名与历史模式之间存在完美的一一对应关系）到负1.0（这意味着完美的负相关）。系数为零意味着不存在可检测的关系。</blockquote></p><p> In mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.</p><p><blockquote>5月中旬，这一系数为负0.66。相比之下，今天它是正的0.67。这一最新读数是我在定期监测该指标时看到的较高系数之一。</blockquote></p><p> Needless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这两者（就此而言，任何指标都不能保证有效。有一次它是准确的，是在2015年4月，当时我关于该指标的专栏以“领先指标标志着市场顶部”为标题。根据内德·戴维斯研究公司维护的熊市日历，一个月后熊市开始了。当时盛行的相对强度排名与历史格局的相关系数为0.43；目前的读数更高，因此更加看跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 21:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.</b> The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.</p><p><blockquote><b>标普500板块相对强弱排名亮红灯。</b>根据基于标普500 SPX过去三个月回报率的领先指标，美国股市已接近顶部，+0.08%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.</p><p><blockquote>在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月里，出现了一种相当可预测的模式，即哪些行业表现最好，哪些行业表现最差。目前，这些行业近期相对实力的排名与这种模式相当接近。</blockquote></p><p> This is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.</p><p><blockquote>自5月中旬以来，这是一个很大的变化，正如我所报道的，当时这一领先指标没有检测到任何即将出现麻烦的迹象。当时过去三个月回报最好的行业并不是那些通常在顶部之前领先市场的行业，而过去三个月回报最差的行业也不是那些通常滞后的行业。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，这些行业的相对实力排名与过去顶部出现的典型模式之间存在明显的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research进行的研究，公用事业、能源和金融是自1970年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最差的标普500板块。如下图所示，这三个行业目前在过去三个月的回报率排名中处于或接近底部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8465aa12910238871b10168546466b1f\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"1272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，根据Ned Davis Research的数据，必需消费品、医疗保健和非必需消费品是在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月内平均表现最好的行业。如图所示，这三者在过去三个月的表现相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> To quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化行业相对强弱排名向看跌方向转变的程度，请考虑我计算的相关系数。这一统计数据的范围从1.0的高点（这意味着行业近期回报的排名与历史模式之间存在完美的一一对应关系）到负1.0（这意味着完美的负相关）。系数为零意味着不存在可检测的关系。</blockquote></p><p> In mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.</p><p><blockquote>5月中旬，这一系数为负0.66。相比之下，今天它是正的0.67。这一最新读数是我在定期监测该指标时看到的较高系数之一。</blockquote></p><p> Needless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这两者（就此而言，任何指标都不能保证有效。有一次它是准确的，是在2015年4月，当时我关于该指标的专栏以“领先指标标志着市场顶部”为标题。根据内德·戴维斯研究公司维护的熊市日历，一个月后熊市开始了。当时盛行的相对强度排名与历史格局的相关系数为0.43；目前的读数更高，因此更加看跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-another-sign-the-bull-market-is-near-a-peak-and-this-one-bears-watching-11628233932?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-another-sign-the-bull-market-is-near-a-peak-and-this-one-bears-watching-11628233932?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124487485","content_text":"S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.\n\nThe U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.\nOver the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.\nThis is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.\nNow, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.\nAccording to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.\n\nIn contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.\nTo quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.\nIn mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.\nNeedless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893767822,"gmtCreate":1628301684166,"gmtModify":1631884384631,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574646370578928","idStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>☀️","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>☀️","text":"$Atossa 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Genetics(ATOS)$💰","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/621f0a9209809be793116a78c417eab4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890227641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145777894,"gmtCreate":1626250500018,"gmtModify":1633928636540,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574646370578928","authorIdStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145777894","repostId":"2151959761","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893720087,"gmtCreate":1628301734749,"gmtModify":1633751838767,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574646370578928","authorIdStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🔥","listText":"🔥","text":"🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893720087","repostId":"1124487485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124487485","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628258241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124487485?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 21:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124487485","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.\n\nThe U.S. stock market is nearing a to","content":"<p> <b>S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.</b> The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.</p><p><blockquote><b>标普500板块相对强弱排名亮红灯。</b>根据基于标普500 SPX过去三个月回报率的领先指标，美国股市已接近顶部，+0.08%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.</p><p><blockquote>在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月里，出现了一种相当可预测的模式，即哪些行业表现最好，哪些行业表现最差。目前，这些行业近期相对实力的排名与这种模式相当接近。</blockquote></p><p> This is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.</p><p><blockquote>自5月中旬以来，这是一个很大的变化，正如我所报道的，当时这一领先指标没有检测到任何即将出现麻烦的迹象。当时过去三个月回报最好的行业并不是那些通常在顶部之前领先市场的行业，而过去三个月回报最差的行业也不是那些通常滞后的行业。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，这些行业的相对实力排名与过去顶部出现的典型模式之间存在明显的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research进行的研究，公用事业、能源和金融是自1970年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最差的标普500板块。如下图所示，这三个行业目前在过去三个月的回报率排名中处于或接近底部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8465aa12910238871b10168546466b1f\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"1272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，根据Ned Davis Research的数据，必需消费品、医疗保健和非必需消费品是在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月内平均表现最好的行业。如图所示，这三者在过去三个月的表现相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> To quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化行业相对强弱排名向看跌方向转变的程度，请考虑我计算的相关系数。这一统计数据的范围从1.0的高点（这意味着行业近期回报的排名与历史模式之间存在完美的一一对应关系）到负1.0（这意味着完美的负相关）。系数为零意味着不存在可检测的关系。</blockquote></p><p> In mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.</p><p><blockquote>5月中旬，这一系数为负0.66。相比之下，今天它是正的0.67。这一最新读数是我在定期监测该指标时看到的较高系数之一。</blockquote></p><p> Needless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这两者（就此而言，任何指标都不能保证有效。有一次它是准确的，是在2015年4月，当时我关于该指标的专栏以“领先指标标志着市场顶部”为标题。根据内德·戴维斯研究公司维护的熊市日历，一个月后熊市开始了。当时盛行的相对强度排名与历史格局的相关系数为0.43；目前的读数更高，因此更加看跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s another sign the bull market is near a peak, and this one bears watching<blockquote>这是牛市接近顶峰的另一个迹象，值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 21:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.</b> The U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.</p><p><blockquote><b>标普500板块相对强弱排名亮红灯。</b>根据基于标普500 SPX过去三个月回报率的领先指标，美国股市已接近顶部，+0.08%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.</p><p><blockquote>在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月里，出现了一种相当可预测的模式，即哪些行业表现最好，哪些行业表现最差。目前，这些行业近期相对实力的排名与这种模式相当接近。</blockquote></p><p> This is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.</p><p><blockquote>自5月中旬以来，这是一个很大的变化，正如我所报道的，当时这一领先指标没有检测到任何即将出现麻烦的迹象。当时过去三个月回报最好的行业并不是那些通常在顶部之前领先市场的行业，而过去三个月回报最差的行业也不是那些通常滞后的行业。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，这些行业的相对实力排名与过去顶部出现的典型模式之间存在明显的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> According to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research进行的研究，公用事业、能源和金融是自1970年以来所有牛市最后三个月平均表现最差的标普500板块。如下图所示，这三个行业目前在过去三个月的回报率排名中处于或接近底部。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8465aa12910238871b10168546466b1f\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"1272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，根据Ned Davis Research的数据，必需消费品、医疗保健和非必需消费品是在过去牛市顶部之前的三个月内平均表现最好的行业。如图所示，这三者在过去三个月的表现相对较好。</blockquote></p><p> To quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化行业相对强弱排名向看跌方向转变的程度，请考虑我计算的相关系数。这一统计数据的范围从1.0的高点（这意味着行业近期回报的排名与历史模式之间存在完美的一一对应关系）到负1.0（这意味着完美的负相关）。系数为零意味着不存在可检测的关系。</blockquote></p><p> In mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.</p><p><blockquote>5月中旬，这一系数为负0.66。相比之下，今天它是正的0.67。这一最新读数是我在定期监测该指标时看到的较高系数之一。</blockquote></p><p> Needless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这两者（就此而言，任何指标都不能保证有效。有一次它是准确的，是在2015年4月，当时我关于该指标的专栏以“领先指标标志着市场顶部”为标题。根据内德·戴维斯研究公司维护的熊市日历，一个月后熊市开始了。当时盛行的相对强度排名与历史格局的相关系数为0.43；目前的读数更高，因此更加看跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-another-sign-the-bull-market-is-near-a-peak-and-this-one-bears-watching-11628233932?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-another-sign-the-bull-market-is-near-a-peak-and-this-one-bears-watching-11628233932?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124487485","content_text":"S&P 500 sectors’ relative strength rankings are flashing red.\n\nThe U.S. stock market is nearing a top, according to a leading indicator that is based on the trailing three-month returns of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.08% sectors.\nOver the three months prior to past bull-market tops, a fairly predictable pattern emerged of which sectors performed best and which fared worst. Currently, a ranking of the sectors’ recent relative strength lines up fairly close with that pattern.\nThis is a big change since mid-May when, as I reported, this leading indicator was not detecting any signs of imminent trouble. The sectors with the best trailing three-month returns at that time were not those that typically lead the market prior to tops, and the sectors with the worst trailing three-month returns were not those that typically lag.\nNow, in contrast, there is a distinct correlation between the sectors’ relative strength ranking and the typical pattern that appeared in past tops.\nAccording to research conducted by Ned Davis Research, Utilities, Energy and Financials are the S&P 500 sectors that have performed the worst, on average, in the final three months of all bull markets since 1970. As is clear in the chart below, these three sectors now are at or near the bottom in a ranking of trailing three-month returns.\n\nIn contrast, according to Ned Davis Research, Consumer Staples, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary are the sectors that have performed the best, on average, over the three months prior to past bull market tops. As the chart shows, these three have performed relatively well over the past three months.\nTo quantify how much the sector relative strength rankings have shifted in a bearish direction, consider the correlation coefficients that I calculated. This statistic ranges from a high of 1.0 (which would mean that there is a perfect one-to-one correspondence between a ranking of the sectors’ recent returns and the historical pattern) to minus 1.0 (which would mean a perfectly inverse correlation). A coefficient of zero would mean that there is no detectable relationship.\nIn mid-May, this coefficient stood at a significantly negative minus 0.66. Today, in contrast, it is a positive 0.67. This latest reading is one of the higher coefficients I’ve seen from my periodic monitoring of this indicator.\nNeedless to say, neither this (nor any indicator, for that matter) is guaranteed to work. One time that it was accurate was in April 2015, when my column on this indicator ran under the headline “leading indicators signal a market top.” A bear market began one month later, according to the bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. The correlation coefficient between the relative strength ranking that then prevailed and the historical pattern stood at 0.43; the current reading is higher and so even more bearish.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178595102,"gmtCreate":1626826507406,"gmtModify":1633770694571,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574646370578928","authorIdStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤑","listText":"🤑","text":"🤑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178595102","repostId":"2153694773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174994933,"gmtCreate":1627055955822,"gmtModify":1631884384790,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574646370578928","authorIdStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>🔥","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>🔥","text":"$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$🔥","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2189737c2776d28a4206e3afddb48b","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174994933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894140751,"gmtCreate":1628813434473,"gmtModify":1631884384616,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574646370578928","authorIdStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>Cmon🤭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>Cmon🤭","text":"$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$Cmon🤭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2947fa46d7067833f4d3e568de57c1d2","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800636837","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171415748,"gmtCreate":1626755929384,"gmtModify":1631884384843,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574646370578928","authorIdStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>🤮","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATOS\">$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$</a>🤮","text":"$Atossa Genetics(ATOS)$🤮","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c22b863f8834c267a51035d22ad04c9b","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171415748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171415963,"gmtCreate":1626755847752,"gmtModify":1633771316346,"author":{"id":"3574646370578928","authorId":"3574646370578928","name":"BryanAGX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae84f1b2ced261b8f6d4dc6f27782bf","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574646370578928","authorIdStr":"3574646370578928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😵💫","listText":"😵💫","text":"😵💫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171415963","repostId":"1149818409","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149818409","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626746165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149818409?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 09:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This the Long-Awaited Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>这是期待已久的股灾吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149818409","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investors are always trying to anticipate the next stock market crash. Those searching for signs of ","content":"<p>Investors are always trying to anticipate the next stock market crash. Those searching for signs of the next major downturn for the market got some evidence supporting the idea that it could come sooner rather than later, with investors continuing to worry about the sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and in other areas of the world. As of 11:15 a.m. EDT, the <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)was down 767 points to 33,921. The <b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)had dropped 65 points to 4,262, and the <b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)was lower by 143 points to 14,284.</p><p><blockquote>投资者总是试图预测下一次股市崩盘。那些寻找市场下一次重大低迷迹象的人得到了一些证据支持这样一种观点，即它可能来得早而不是晚，投资者继续担心美国和世界其他地区的COVID-19病例急剧增加。截至美国东部时间上午11:15，<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES：^DJI)下跌767点，至33,921点。The<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)下跌65点至4,262点，而<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）下跌143点，至14,284点。</blockquote></p><p> You can always make a bearish case for why the stock market should stop going up, at least in the short run. However, investors spend too much time trying to figure out exact timing. If you're truly worried about your exposure to the stock market, then the time to take action is<i>before</i>the worst of the next bear market happens. Below, we'll take a closer look at what's hitting the market today and what response might be most appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>你总是可以悲观地解释为什么股市应该停止上涨，至少在短期内是这样。然而，投资者花了太多时间试图找出确切的时机。如果您确实担心自己在股市的敞口，那么现在是采取行动的时候了<i>以前</i>下一次熊市最糟糕的情况发生了。下面，我们将仔细看看今天市场上发生了什么，以及什么反应可能是最合适的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slowing down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>减速</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors couldn't understand the huge gains that the stock market has produced over the past 15 months. Even as the global economy struggled under the weight of pandemic-caused lockdowns, the stock market reflected a level of optimism that simply didn't seem to be there yet. Eventually, vaccines led to reopenings, which in turn started to help lift the prospects for companies hit hard by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者无法理解股市在过去15个月里取得的巨大涨幅。尽管全球经济在大流行导致的封锁的重压下苦苦挣扎，但股市反映出了一种似乎还没有的乐观情绪。最终，疫苗导致了重新开业，这反过来又开始帮助提升受疫情重创的公司的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Now, though, the fear among investors is that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves. As the delta variant helps stoke rising COVID-19 case counts, the idea that the pandemic would soon no longer be a major factor in the economy is starting to lose credibility.</p><p><blockquote>然而现在，投资者担心市场已经超前了。随着德尔塔变异毒株导致COVID-19病例数不断上升，这种流行病很快将不再是经济主要因素的想法开始失去可信度。</blockquote></p><p> That change of attitude is having dramatic impacts across the financial markets:</p><p><blockquote>这种态度的转变正在对整个金融市场产生巨大影响：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Bond yields have plunged as investors seek the reliable, though minuscule, returns available from fixed income securities. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped below 1.2% Monday morning, and after having seen some upward movement in recent months, international bond yields now appear likely to remain negative in many countries throughout Europe for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>The drop in long-term rates has hit financial stocks hard, with<b>Goldman Sachs</b>(NYSE:GS)leading big banks lower with a nearly 4% drop. Financials are playing a major role in pulling the Dow down by a larger percentage than other markets on Monday.</li> <li>Signs ofinflationary pressureare showing early signs of potentially reversing. Crude oil fell nearly $5 per barrel on Monday, falling to $67 per barrel and causing oil-related stocks to fall.<b>Chevron</b>(NYSE:CVX)was among the Dow's weakest performers, falling more than 3% Monday morning.</li> <li>Meanwhile, some stocks are benefiting.<b>Moderna</b>(NASDAQ:MRNA)shares rose, perhaps in anticipation ofgreater vaccine sales, while<b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON)also gained ground as some anticipate that more fitness enthusiasts might stay home if health risk levels increase.</li> </ul> Meanwhile, cyclical stocks in areas like industrials and materials are also particularly weak. The declines are coming after a generally strong performance over the past year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于投资者寻求从固定收益证券中获得可靠但微乎其微的回报，债券收益率暴跌。周一上午，十年期国债收益率跌破1.2%，在经历了近几个月的一些上行之后，在可预见的未来，欧洲许多国家的国际债券收益率现在似乎可能保持负值。</li><li>长期利率下降重创金融股，<b>高盛</b>(NYSE：GS)领跌大银行，跌幅近4%。周一，金融股在拖累道琼斯指数跌幅方面发挥了重要作用，跌幅大于其他市场。</li><li>通胀压力的迹象显示出可能逆转的早期迹象。原油周一每桶下跌近5美元，跌至每桶67美元，并导致石油相关股票下跌。<b>雪佛龙</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CVX）是道琼斯指数表现最弱的股票之一，周一上午下跌超过3%。</li><li>与此同时，一些股票正在受益。<b>现代</b>（纳斯达克：MRNA）股价上涨，或许是由于预期疫苗销量会增加，而<b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON）也取得了进展，因为一些人预计，如果健康风险水平上升，更多的健身爱好者可能会呆在家里。</li></ul>与此同时，工业和材料等领域的周期性股票也特别疲软。这些下降是在过去一年表现普遍强劲之后发生的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't panic -- but be ready for what might come next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不要惊慌——但要为接下来可能发生的事情做好准备</b></blockquote></p><p> It's always hard to deal with market downturns, and in particular, the long-term rise in the Dow makes declines seem worse than they really are. Drops of 2% have always been commonplace on Wall Street, but with the Dow having jumped as far as it has, the inevitable \"Dow Down 700+\" headlines always look more ominous.</p><p><blockquote>应对市场低迷总是很困难的，特别是道琼斯指数的长期上涨让下跌看起来比实际情况更糟糕。下跌2%在华尔街一直是家常便饭，但随着道琼斯指数已经跳得如此之远，不可避免的“道琼斯指数下跌700+”的头条新闻看起来总是更加不祥。</blockquote></p><p> Panic-selling after a stock market crash almost never works out well, and that's why feeling comfortable with your current level of risk<i>before</i>a crash comes is so important. In particular, if you find your portfolio has a lot more invested in stocks than you thought after the big gains of the past year, it's not unreasonable to rebalance your portfolio and move some of that money out of the market before a crash. Many investors like to target certain percentages in various asset classes, and it's smart to periodically check in on your holdings to make sure gains in one area and losses in another haven't thrown your portfolio out of whack.</p><p><blockquote>股市崩盘后的恐慌性抛售几乎永远不会有好结果，这就是为什么对当前的风险水平感到满意<i>以前</i>崩溃的到来是如此重要。特别是，如果您发现在过去一年的大幅上涨之后，您的投资组合在股票上的投资比您想象的要多得多，那么在崩盘之前重新平衡您的投资组合并将部分资金撤出市场并非没有道理。许多投资者喜欢在各种资产类别中设定一定比例的目标，明智的做法是定期检查您的持股，以确保一个领域的收益和另一个领域的损失不会使您的投资组合陷入混乱。</blockquote></p><p> Monday morning's downward move doesn't count as a crash. That doesn't mean there won't be one later today, tomorrow, next week, or later this year. Regardless, though,having an investing strategythat acknowledges the inevitable fact that a crash will come at some point will definitely help you whenever that fateful day finally does arrive.</p><p><blockquote>周一上午的下跌不算崩盘。这并不意味着今天晚些时候、明天、下周或今年晚些时候不会有。不过，无论如何，拥有一个承认崩盘将在某个时候到来这一不可避免的事实的投资策略肯定会在那决定性的一天最终到来时对你有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This the Long-Awaited Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>这是期待已久的股灾吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This the Long-Awaited Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>这是期待已久的股灾吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 09:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors are always trying to anticipate the next stock market crash. Those searching for signs of the next major downturn for the market got some evidence supporting the idea that it could come sooner rather than later, with investors continuing to worry about the sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and in other areas of the world. As of 11:15 a.m. EDT, the <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)was down 767 points to 33,921. The <b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)had dropped 65 points to 4,262, and the <b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)was lower by 143 points to 14,284.</p><p><blockquote>投资者总是试图预测下一次股市崩盘。那些寻找市场下一次重大低迷迹象的人得到了一些证据支持这样一种观点，即它可能来得早而不是晚，投资者继续担心美国和世界其他地区的COVID-19病例急剧增加。截至美国东部时间上午11:15，<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES：^DJI)下跌767点，至33,921点。The<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)下跌65点至4,262点，而<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）下跌143点，至14,284点。</blockquote></p><p> You can always make a bearish case for why the stock market should stop going up, at least in the short run. However, investors spend too much time trying to figure out exact timing. If you're truly worried about your exposure to the stock market, then the time to take action is<i>before</i>the worst of the next bear market happens. Below, we'll take a closer look at what's hitting the market today and what response might be most appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>你总是可以悲观地解释为什么股市应该停止上涨，至少在短期内是这样。然而，投资者花了太多时间试图找出确切的时机。如果您确实担心自己在股市的敞口，那么现在是采取行动的时候了<i>以前</i>下一次熊市最糟糕的情况发生了。下面，我们将仔细看看今天市场上发生了什么，以及什么反应可能是最合适的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slowing down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>减速</b></blockquote></p><p> Many investors couldn't understand the huge gains that the stock market has produced over the past 15 months. Even as the global economy struggled under the weight of pandemic-caused lockdowns, the stock market reflected a level of optimism that simply didn't seem to be there yet. Eventually, vaccines led to reopenings, which in turn started to help lift the prospects for companies hit hard by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者无法理解股市在过去15个月里取得的巨大涨幅。尽管全球经济在大流行导致的封锁的重压下苦苦挣扎，但股市反映出了一种似乎还没有的乐观情绪。最终，疫苗导致了重新开业，这反过来又开始帮助提升受疫情重创的公司的前景。</blockquote></p><p> Now, though, the fear among investors is that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves. As the delta variant helps stoke rising COVID-19 case counts, the idea that the pandemic would soon no longer be a major factor in the economy is starting to lose credibility.</p><p><blockquote>然而现在，投资者担心市场已经超前了。随着德尔塔变异毒株导致COVID-19病例数不断上升，这种流行病很快将不再是经济主要因素的想法开始失去可信度。</blockquote></p><p> That change of attitude is having dramatic impacts across the financial markets:</p><p><blockquote>这种态度的转变正在对整个金融市场产生巨大影响：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Bond yields have plunged as investors seek the reliable, though minuscule, returns available from fixed income securities. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped below 1.2% Monday morning, and after having seen some upward movement in recent months, international bond yields now appear likely to remain negative in many countries throughout Europe for the foreseeable future.</li> <li>The drop in long-term rates has hit financial stocks hard, with<b>Goldman Sachs</b>(NYSE:GS)leading big banks lower with a nearly 4% drop. Financials are playing a major role in pulling the Dow down by a larger percentage than other markets on Monday.</li> <li>Signs ofinflationary pressureare showing early signs of potentially reversing. Crude oil fell nearly $5 per barrel on Monday, falling to $67 per barrel and causing oil-related stocks to fall.<b>Chevron</b>(NYSE:CVX)was among the Dow's weakest performers, falling more than 3% Monday morning.</li> <li>Meanwhile, some stocks are benefiting.<b>Moderna</b>(NASDAQ:MRNA)shares rose, perhaps in anticipation ofgreater vaccine sales, while<b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON)also gained ground as some anticipate that more fitness enthusiasts might stay home if health risk levels increase.</li> </ul> Meanwhile, cyclical stocks in areas like industrials and materials are also particularly weak. The declines are coming after a generally strong performance over the past year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于投资者寻求从固定收益证券中获得可靠但微乎其微的回报，债券收益率暴跌。周一上午，十年期国债收益率跌破1.2%，在经历了近几个月的一些上行之后，在可预见的未来，欧洲许多国家的国际债券收益率现在似乎可能保持负值。</li><li>长期利率下降重创金融股，<b>高盛</b>(NYSE：GS)领跌大银行，跌幅近4%。周一，金融股在拖累道琼斯指数跌幅方面发挥了重要作用，跌幅大于其他市场。</li><li>通胀压力的迹象显示出可能逆转的早期迹象。原油周一每桶下跌近5美元，跌至每桶67美元，并导致石油相关股票下跌。<b>雪佛龙</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：CVX）是道琼斯指数表现最弱的股票之一，周一上午下跌超过3%。</li><li>与此同时，一些股票正在受益。<b>现代</b>（纳斯达克：MRNA）股价上涨，或许是由于预期疫苗销量会增加，而<b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON）也取得了进展，因为一些人预计，如果健康风险水平上升，更多的健身爱好者可能会呆在家里。</li></ul>与此同时，工业和材料等领域的周期性股票也特别疲软。这些下降是在过去一年表现普遍强劲之后发生的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't panic -- but be ready for what might come next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不要惊慌——但要为接下来可能发生的事情做好准备</b></blockquote></p><p> It's always hard to deal with market downturns, and in particular, the long-term rise in the Dow makes declines seem worse than they really are. Drops of 2% have always been commonplace on Wall Street, but with the Dow having jumped as far as it has, the inevitable \"Dow Down 700+\" headlines always look more ominous.</p><p><blockquote>应对市场低迷总是很困难的，特别是道琼斯指数的长期上涨让下跌看起来比实际情况更糟糕。下跌2%在华尔街一直是家常便饭，但随着道琼斯指数已经跳得如此之远，不可避免的“道琼斯指数下跌700+”的头条新闻看起来总是更加不祥。</blockquote></p><p> Panic-selling after a stock market crash almost never works out well, and that's why feeling comfortable with your current level of risk<i>before</i>a crash comes is so important. In particular, if you find your portfolio has a lot more invested in stocks than you thought after the big gains of the past year, it's not unreasonable to rebalance your portfolio and move some of that money out of the market before a crash. Many investors like to target certain percentages in various asset classes, and it's smart to periodically check in on your holdings to make sure gains in one area and losses in another haven't thrown your portfolio out of whack.</p><p><blockquote>股市崩盘后的恐慌性抛售几乎永远不会有好结果，这就是为什么对当前的风险水平感到满意<i>以前</i>崩溃的到来是如此重要。特别是，如果您发现在过去一年的大幅上涨之后，您的投资组合在股票上的投资比您想象的要多得多，那么在崩盘之前重新平衡您的投资组合并将部分资金撤出市场并非没有道理。许多投资者喜欢在各种资产类别中设定一定比例的目标，明智的做法是定期检查您的持股，以确保一个领域的收益和另一个领域的损失不会使您的投资组合陷入混乱。</blockquote></p><p> Monday morning's downward move doesn't count as a crash. That doesn't mean there won't be one later today, tomorrow, next week, or later this year. Regardless, though,having an investing strategythat acknowledges the inevitable fact that a crash will come at some point will definitely help you whenever that fateful day finally does arrive.</p><p><blockquote>周一上午的下跌不算崩盘。这并不意味着今天晚些时候、明天、下周或今年晚些时候不会有。不过，无论如何，拥有一个承认崩盘将在某个时候到来这一不可避免的事实的投资策略肯定会在那决定性的一天最终到来时对你有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/19/is-this-the-long-awaited-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/19/is-this-the-long-awaited-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149818409","content_text":"Investors are always trying to anticipate the next stock market crash. Those searching for signs of the next major downturn for the market got some evidence supporting the idea that it could come sooner rather than later, with investors continuing to worry about the sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and in other areas of the world. As of 11:15 a.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI)was down 767 points to 33,921. The S&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)had dropped 65 points to 4,262, and the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)was lower by 143 points to 14,284.\nYou can always make a bearish case for why the stock market should stop going up, at least in the short run. However, investors spend too much time trying to figure out exact timing. If you're truly worried about your exposure to the stock market, then the time to take action isbeforethe worst of the next bear market happens. Below, we'll take a closer look at what's hitting the market today and what response might be most appropriate.\nSlowing down\nMany investors couldn't understand the huge gains that the stock market has produced over the past 15 months. Even as the global economy struggled under the weight of pandemic-caused lockdowns, the stock market reflected a level of optimism that simply didn't seem to be there yet. Eventually, vaccines led to reopenings, which in turn started to help lift the prospects for companies hit hard by the pandemic.\nNow, though, the fear among investors is that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves. As the delta variant helps stoke rising COVID-19 case counts, the idea that the pandemic would soon no longer be a major factor in the economy is starting to lose credibility.\nThat change of attitude is having dramatic impacts across the financial markets:\n\nBond yields have plunged as investors seek the reliable, though minuscule, returns available from fixed income securities. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped below 1.2% Monday morning, and after having seen some upward movement in recent months, international bond yields now appear likely to remain negative in many countries throughout Europe for the foreseeable future.\nThe drop in long-term rates has hit financial stocks hard, withGoldman Sachs(NYSE:GS)leading big banks lower with a nearly 4% drop. Financials are playing a major role in pulling the Dow down by a larger percentage than other markets on Monday.\nSigns ofinflationary pressureare showing early signs of potentially reversing. Crude oil fell nearly $5 per barrel on Monday, falling to $67 per barrel and causing oil-related stocks to fall.Chevron(NYSE:CVX)was among the Dow's weakest performers, falling more than 3% Monday morning.\nMeanwhile, some stocks are benefiting.Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA)shares rose, perhaps in anticipation ofgreater vaccine sales, whilePeloton Interactive(NASDAQ:PTON)also gained ground as some anticipate that more fitness enthusiasts might stay home if health risk levels increase.\n\nMeanwhile, cyclical stocks in areas like industrials and materials are also particularly weak. The declines are coming after a generally strong performance over the past year.\nDon't panic -- but be ready for what might come next\nIt's always hard to deal with market downturns, and in particular, the long-term rise in the Dow makes declines seem worse than they really are. Drops of 2% have always been commonplace on Wall Street, but with the Dow having jumped as far as it has, the inevitable \"Dow Down 700+\" headlines always look more ominous.\nPanic-selling after a stock market crash almost never works out well, and that's why feeling comfortable with your current level of riskbeforea crash comes is so important. In particular, if you find your portfolio has a lot more invested in stocks than you thought after the big gains of the past year, it's not unreasonable to rebalance your portfolio and move some of that money out of the market before a crash. Many investors like to target certain percentages in various asset classes, and it's smart to periodically check in on your holdings to make sure gains in one area and losses in another haven't thrown your portfolio out of whack.\nMonday morning's downward move doesn't count as a crash. That doesn't mean there won't be one later today, tomorrow, next week, or later this year. 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