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Wsoh

Wsoh

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2021-06-12

Tiger to break $30?

2021-05-05

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-02

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-28

Wow

AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>

2021-04-26

Highs will only get higher

The last Roaring Twenties ended in disaster. Should investors be worried?<blockquote>上一个咆哮的二十年代以灾难告终。投资者应该担心吗？</blockquote>

2021-04-22

Recovering market what u guys waiting for

S&P 500 is flat as market struggles for a direction<blockquote>市场苦苦寻找方向，标普500表现平淡</blockquote>

2021-04-21

No reason to fret

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2021-04-18

Wow//@xiaochan:Wow

Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>

2021-04-16

Wow

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2021-04-14

Wow that’s high

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-12

Wow

Crude Oil Price Hovers Around $60 – What Next?<blockquote>原油价格徘徊在60美元附近——接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-04-09

Of course when you are hitting new highs every other day

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2021-04-07

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Buy buy buy

2021-04-05

Unlikely

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-04-05

Nice nice!

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2021-04-04

Nice buy buy buy!

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2021-03-29

Wow//@xiaochan:Wow

Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>

2021-03-26

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-25

Sigh

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-23

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

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to break $30?","listText":"Tiger to break $30?","text":"Tiger to break 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619566832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187199105?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187199105","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in e","content":"<p>AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended session<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174cfb55080b96346856b267d6c023ed\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在创纪录的季度销售额后上调全年收入指引，股价在延长交易时段上涨逾3%芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices Inc.表示，数据中心收入增长了一倍多，推动了创纪录的季度销售额，并上调了今年的收入预期，该公司股价在周二的延长交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD&nbsp;Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在与分析师的看涨期权中表示：“第一季度，数据中心产品收入同比增长了一倍多，占我们总收入的比例很高。”“我们预计，在我们强大的新云、企业和[高性能计算]胜利渠道的推动下，数据中心产品收入将在今年大幅增长。”</blockquote></p><p>Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.</p><p><blockquote>企业嵌入式和半定制芯片（包括数据中心和游戏机收入）的销售额几乎翻了两番，达到13.5亿美元，而一年前为3.48亿美元。FactSet调查的分析师预计为13亿美元。苏关于数据中心收入的评论很有帮助，因为AMD不会将数据中心销售额与游戏销售额分开。</blockquote></p><p>“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们在第一季度看到了真正强烈的信号，表明今年对我们来说将是数据中心强劲的一年，”苏告诉分析师。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, Intel Corp&nbsp;said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英特尔公司表示，数据中心市场正处于“消化阶段”，导致数据中心销售额下降20%，但分析师指出，来自AMD和ARM Holdings PLC的竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度净利润为5.55亿美元，即每股45美分，而去年同期为1.62亿美元，即每股14美分。在调整股票薪酬和其他因素后，这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司报告每股收益为52美分，而去年同期为每股18美分。收入从去年同期的17.9亿美元增至34.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测调整后每股收益为44美分，营收为31.8亿美元，AMD预计在31亿至33亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度计算和图形芯片销售额为21亿美元，较去年的14.4亿美元增长46%，分析师预期为18.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>高管们还提高了AMD全年销售额指引，从之前指引的约37%增长至约50%。AMD去年营收为96.7亿美元，暗示今年销售额约为146.5亿美元；FactSet的数据显示，分析师此前预测营收为134.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，AMD预计第二季度营收为35亿至37亿美元，而分析师此前预计为32.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.</p><p><blockquote>该股在常规交易中下跌0.2%，收于85.21美元，在盘后交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p>AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲盈利是在满足全球行业需求的微芯片持续短缺的情况下出现的，而制造芯片设计所用硅片的公司正在努力清理长达数月的等待名单。</blockquote></p><p>More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业如何应对供应短缺的更多信息将于本周公布，高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.QCOM)周三盈利-0.68%，KLA Corp.KLAC(KLAC)周四盈利-1.58%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;is up 61%.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，AMD股价上涨了51%。相比之下，PHLX半导体指数SOX,-0.76%上涨87%，标普500指数上涨54%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨61%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 07:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended session<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174cfb55080b96346856b267d6c023ed\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在创纪录的季度销售额后上调全年收入指引，股价在延长交易时段上涨逾3%芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices Inc.表示，数据中心收入增长了一倍多，推动了创纪录的季度销售额，并上调了今年的收入预期，该公司股价在周二的延长交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD&nbsp;Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在与分析师的看涨期权中表示：“第一季度，数据中心产品收入同比增长了一倍多，占我们总收入的比例很高。”“我们预计，在我们强大的新云、企业和[高性能计算]胜利渠道的推动下，数据中心产品收入将在今年大幅增长。”</blockquote></p><p>Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.</p><p><blockquote>企业嵌入式和半定制芯片（包括数据中心和游戏机收入）的销售额几乎翻了两番，达到13.5亿美元，而一年前为3.48亿美元。FactSet调查的分析师预计为13亿美元。苏关于数据中心收入的评论很有帮助，因为AMD不会将数据中心销售额与游戏销售额分开。</blockquote></p><p>“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们在第一季度看到了真正强烈的信号，表明今年对我们来说将是数据中心强劲的一年，”苏告诉分析师。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, Intel Corp&nbsp;said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英特尔公司表示，数据中心市场正处于“消化阶段”，导致数据中心销售额下降20%，但分析师指出，来自AMD和ARM Holdings PLC的竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度净利润为5.55亿美元，即每股45美分，而去年同期为1.62亿美元，即每股14美分。在调整股票薪酬和其他因素后，这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司报告每股收益为52美分，而去年同期为每股18美分。收入从去年同期的17.9亿美元增至34.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测调整后每股收益为44美分，营收为31.8亿美元，AMD预计在31亿至33亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度计算和图形芯片销售额为21亿美元，较去年的14.4亿美元增长46%，分析师预期为18.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>高管们还提高了AMD全年销售额指引，从之前指引的约37%增长至约50%。AMD去年营收为96.7亿美元，暗示今年销售额约为146.5亿美元；FactSet的数据显示，分析师此前预测营收为134.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，AMD预计第二季度营收为35亿至37亿美元，而分析师此前预计为32.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.</p><p><blockquote>该股在常规交易中下跌0.2%，收于85.21美元，在盘后交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p>AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲盈利是在满足全球行业需求的微芯片持续短缺的情况下出现的，而制造芯片设计所用硅片的公司正在努力清理长达数月的等待名单。</blockquote></p><p>More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业如何应对供应短缺的更多信息将于本周公布，高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.QCOM)周三盈利-0.68%，KLA Corp.KLAC(KLAC)周四盈利-1.58%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;is up 61%.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，AMD股价上涨了51%。相比之下，PHLX半导体指数SOX,-0.76%上涨87%，标普500指数上涨54%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨61%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187199105","content_text":"AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended sessionAdvanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.Last week, Intel Corp said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&P 500 index has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up 61%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374033803,"gmtCreate":1619400958302,"gmtModify":1634273790127,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Highs will only get higher","listText":"Highs will only get higher","text":"Highs will only get higher","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374033803","repostId":"1136207293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136207293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619400431,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136207293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The last Roaring Twenties ended in disaster. Should investors be worried?<blockquote>上一个咆哮的二十年代以灾难告终。投资者应该担心吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136207293","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - If this is a new Roaring Twenties for stocks and the economy, do we need t","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;If this is a new Roaring Twenties for&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;and the&nbsp;economy, do we need to worry about how the 1920s ended?</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>——如果这是股市和经济新的咆哮的20年代，我们是否需要担心20年代是如何结束的？</blockquote></p><p> There has been a lot of talk about how the combination of massive economic&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;and&nbsp;vaccines for Covid-19&nbsp;could bring about a lengthy financial boom — just as there was during the 1920s after the end of the influenza pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>人们一直在谈论大规模经济刺激和Covid-19疫苗的结合如何带来长期的金融繁荣——就像大流行流感结束后的20世纪20年代一样。</blockquote></p><p> But if you follow this analogy to its conclusion, there could be a major cause for concern. After all, the 1920s ended with the Black Tuesday stock market crash in October 1929 — right at the onset of the Great Depression.</p><p><blockquote>但是如果你按照这个类比得出结论，可能会有一个令人担忧的主要原因。毕竟，20世纪20年代以1929年10月的黑色星期二股市崩盘而告终——就在大萧条开始的时候。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Roaring Twenties were a great period of time for investors but they didn't end well,\" said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Schwab Center for Financial Research.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财金融研究中心交易和衍生品副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克(Randy Frederick)表示：“对投资者来说，繁荣的二十年代是一段美好的时光，但结局并不好。”</blockquote></p><p> Some experts worry that similar excesses could be building now in the stock market and economy. You see it with the rise of meme stocks likeGameStop(GME), the surge in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and the unrelenting runup in US housing prices.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家担心，类似的过度行为现在可能正在股市和经济中积累。你可以从GameStop(GME)等模因股票的上涨、比特币和其他加密货币的飙升以及美国房价的持续上涨中看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Still, that doesn't necessarily mean it's time to panic and start preparing for another significant upheaval.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这并不一定意味着是时候恐慌并开始为另一场重大剧变做准备了。</blockquote></p><p> \"Another Great Depression scenario is hard to see,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官特洛伊·盖耶斯基(Troy Gayeski)表示：“很难看到另一场大萧条。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90351b7321b271e6cdd9cc103f29166\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>Traders rush in 1929 as the New York Stock Exchange crashes, sparking a run on banks.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>1929年，纽约证券交易所崩盘，引发银行挤兑，交易员蜂拥而至。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gayeski noted that many big businesses and consumers have stockpiled cash. The personal savings rate in the US is currently hovering just under 14% — compared to 7.6% in January 2020.</p><p><blockquote>盖耶斯基指出，许多大企业和消费者都储备了现金。美国的个人储蓄率目前徘徊在略低于14%，而2020年1月为7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This cushion should prevent the economy from going into free fall even if there is more volatility in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使股市波动更大，这种缓冲也应该可以防止经济陷入自由落体。</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't think a short-term hangover will lead to a multi-year downturn,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不认为短期的宿醉会导致多年的低迷，”盖耶斯基说。</blockquote></p><p> Frederick agreed that investors are not worrying about a meltdown, in part because stocks already took a massive hit last year due to the pandemic — and quickly recovered.</p><p><blockquote>弗雷德里克同意，投资者并不担心崩溃，部分原因是股市去年已经因疫情而遭受巨大打击，但很快就恢复了。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is also hopeful that economic policymakers, most notably Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen and current Fed chair Jerome Powell, will not do anything rash that risks jeopardizing the recovery of the economy or market.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街还希望经济政策制定者，尤其是财政部长（前美联储主席）珍妮特·耶伦和现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，不要做出任何可能危及经济或市场复苏的鲁莽行为。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is a lot of confidence in Yellen. She knows what she's doing. And the Fed won't raise rates aggressively,\" said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of Navellier &amp; Associates.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates首席投资官Louis Navellier表示：“人们对耶伦很有信心。她知道自己在做什么。而且美联储不会大幅加息。”</blockquote></p><p> That should keep the economy and financial markets humming along. Of course, there will likely be corrections along the way. That's only natural.</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让经济和金融市场保持繁荣。当然，一路上可能会有修正。那是很自然的。</blockquote></p><p> But Gayeski said it's hard to imagine inflation roaring back in such dramatic fashion that it would lead the Fed, which meets again on Wednesday, to change course.</p><p><blockquote>但盖耶斯基表示，很难想象通胀会以如此戏剧性的方式反弹，以至于导致周三再次开会的美联储改变方针。</blockquote></p><p> Absent that, the Fed can stay on hold and investors won't have to worry that the central bank will grind the economy to a halt with big rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有这一点，美联储可以按兵不动，投资者也不必担心央行会通过大幅加息使经济陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> \"Covid dealt such a massive body blow to the economy but there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and the markets have responded to that. At some point, the Fed may have to gradually let up on the accelerator. But not right now,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“新冠疫情对经济造成了如此巨大的打击，但出现了前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，市场也对此做出了反应。在某个时候，美联储可能不得不逐渐放松油门。但不是现在，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The last Roaring Twenties ended in disaster. Should investors be worried?<blockquote>上一个咆哮的二十年代以灾难告终。投资者应该担心吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe last Roaring Twenties ended in disaster. Should investors be worried?<blockquote>上一个咆哮的二十年代以灾难告终。投资者应该担心吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 09:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;If this is a new Roaring Twenties for&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;and the&nbsp;economy, do we need to worry about how the 1920s ended?</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>——如果这是股市和经济新的咆哮的20年代，我们是否需要担心20年代是如何结束的？</blockquote></p><p> There has been a lot of talk about how the combination of massive economic&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;and&nbsp;vaccines for Covid-19&nbsp;could bring about a lengthy financial boom — just as there was during the 1920s after the end of the influenza pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>人们一直在谈论大规模经济刺激和Covid-19疫苗的结合如何带来长期的金融繁荣——就像大流行流感结束后的20世纪20年代一样。</blockquote></p><p> But if you follow this analogy to its conclusion, there could be a major cause for concern. After all, the 1920s ended with the Black Tuesday stock market crash in October 1929 — right at the onset of the Great Depression.</p><p><blockquote>但是如果你按照这个类比得出结论，可能会有一个令人担忧的主要原因。毕竟，20世纪20年代以1929年10月的黑色星期二股市崩盘而告终——就在大萧条开始的时候。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Roaring Twenties were a great period of time for investors but they didn't end well,\" said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Schwab Center for Financial Research.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财金融研究中心交易和衍生品副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克(Randy Frederick)表示：“对投资者来说，繁荣的二十年代是一段美好的时光，但结局并不好。”</blockquote></p><p> Some experts worry that similar excesses could be building now in the stock market and economy. You see it with the rise of meme stocks likeGameStop(GME), the surge in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and the unrelenting runup in US housing prices.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家担心，类似的过度行为现在可能正在股市和经济中积累。你可以从GameStop(GME)等模因股票的上涨、比特币和其他加密货币的飙升以及美国房价的持续上涨中看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Still, that doesn't necessarily mean it's time to panic and start preparing for another significant upheaval.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这并不一定意味着是时候恐慌并开始为另一场重大剧变做准备了。</blockquote></p><p> \"Another Great Depression scenario is hard to see,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官特洛伊·盖耶斯基(Troy Gayeski)表示：“很难看到另一场大萧条。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90351b7321b271e6cdd9cc103f29166\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>Traders rush in 1929 as the New York Stock Exchange crashes, sparking a run on banks.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>1929年，纽约证券交易所崩盘，引发银行挤兑，交易员蜂拥而至。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gayeski noted that many big businesses and consumers have stockpiled cash. The personal savings rate in the US is currently hovering just under 14% — compared to 7.6% in January 2020.</p><p><blockquote>盖耶斯基指出，许多大企业和消费者都储备了现金。美国的个人储蓄率目前徘徊在略低于14%，而2020年1月为7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This cushion should prevent the economy from going into free fall even if there is more volatility in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使股市波动更大，这种缓冲也应该可以防止经济陷入自由落体。</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't think a short-term hangover will lead to a multi-year downturn,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不认为短期的宿醉会导致多年的低迷，”盖耶斯基说。</blockquote></p><p> Frederick agreed that investors are not worrying about a meltdown, in part because stocks already took a massive hit last year due to the pandemic — and quickly recovered.</p><p><blockquote>弗雷德里克同意，投资者并不担心崩溃，部分原因是股市去年已经因疫情而遭受巨大打击，但很快就恢复了。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is also hopeful that economic policymakers, most notably Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen and current Fed chair Jerome Powell, will not do anything rash that risks jeopardizing the recovery of the economy or market.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街还希望经济政策制定者，尤其是财政部长（前美联储主席）珍妮特·耶伦和现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，不要做出任何可能危及经济或市场复苏的鲁莽行为。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is a lot of confidence in Yellen. She knows what she's doing. And the Fed won't raise rates aggressively,\" said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of Navellier &amp; Associates.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates首席投资官Louis Navellier表示：“人们对耶伦很有信心。她知道自己在做什么。而且美联储不会大幅加息。”</blockquote></p><p> That should keep the economy and financial markets humming along. Of course, there will likely be corrections along the way. That's only natural.</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让经济和金融市场保持繁荣。当然，一路上可能会有修正。那是很自然的。</blockquote></p><p> But Gayeski said it's hard to imagine inflation roaring back in such dramatic fashion that it would lead the Fed, which meets again on Wednesday, to change course.</p><p><blockquote>但盖耶斯基表示，很难想象通胀会以如此戏剧性的方式反弹，以至于导致周三再次开会的美联储改变方针。</blockquote></p><p> Absent that, the Fed can stay on hold and investors won't have to worry that the central bank will grind the economy to a halt with big rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有这一点，美联储可以按兵不动，投资者也不必担心央行会通过大幅加息使经济陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> \"Covid dealt such a massive body blow to the economy but there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and the markets have responded to that. At some point, the Fed may have to gradually let up on the accelerator. But not right now,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“新冠疫情对经济造成了如此巨大的打击，但出现了前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，市场也对此做出了反应。在某个时候，美联储可能不得不逐渐放松油门。但不是现在，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/25/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/25/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136207293","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - If this is a new Roaring Twenties for stocks and the economy, do we need to worry about how the 1920s ended?\nThere has been a lot of talk about how the combination of massive economic stimulus and vaccines for Covid-19 could bring about a lengthy financial boom — just as there was during the 1920s after the end of the influenza pandemic.\nBut if you follow this analogy to its conclusion, there could be a major cause for concern. After all, the 1920s ended with the Black Tuesday stock market crash in October 1929 — right at the onset of the Great Depression.\n\"The Roaring Twenties were a great period of time for investors but they didn't end well,\" said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Schwab Center for Financial Research.\nSome experts worry that similar excesses could be building now in the stock market and economy. You see it with the rise of meme stocks likeGameStop(GME), the surge in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and the unrelenting runup in US housing prices.\nStill, that doesn't necessarily mean it's time to panic and start preparing for another significant upheaval.\n\"Another Great Depression scenario is hard to see,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital.\nTraders rush in 1929 as the New York Stock Exchange crashes, sparking a run on banks.\nGayeski noted that many big businesses and consumers have stockpiled cash. The personal savings rate in the US is currently hovering just under 14% — compared to 7.6% in January 2020.\nThis cushion should prevent the economy from going into free fall even if there is more volatility in stocks.\n\"I don't think a short-term hangover will lead to a multi-year downturn,\" Gayeski said.\nFrederick agreed that investors are not worrying about a meltdown, in part because stocks already took a massive hit last year due to the pandemic — and quickly recovered.\nWall Street is also hopeful that economic policymakers, most notably Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen and current Fed chair Jerome Powell, will not do anything rash that risks jeopardizing the recovery of the economy or market.\n\"There is a lot of confidence in Yellen. She knows what she's doing. And the Fed won't raise rates aggressively,\" said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of Navellier & Associates.\nThat should keep the economy and financial markets humming along. Of course, there will likely be corrections along the way. That's only natural.\nBut Gayeski said it's hard to imagine inflation roaring back in such dramatic fashion that it would lead the Fed, which meets again on Wednesday, to change course.\nAbsent that, the Fed can stay on hold and investors won't have to worry that the central bank will grind the economy to a halt with big rate hikes.\n\"Covid dealt such a massive body blow to the economy but there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and the markets have responded to that. At some point, the Fed may have to gradually let up on the accelerator. But not right now,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376128641,"gmtCreate":1619098877983,"gmtModify":1634288579285,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recovering market what u guys waiting for&nbsp;","listText":"Recovering market what u guys waiting for&nbsp;","text":"Recovering market what u guys waiting for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376128641","repostId":"1141448708","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141448708","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619098339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141448708?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-22 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 is flat as market struggles for a direction<blockquote>市场苦苦寻找方向，标普500表现平淡</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141448708","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S stocks were muted on Thursday following a strong day of gains as the market struggled for a dire","content":"<p>U.S stocks were muted on Thursday following a strong day of gains as the market struggled for a direction after a big rally to start the year.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市在经历了一天的强劲上涨后，周四表现低迷，市场在年初大幅上涨后难以找到方向。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 dipped just 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 56 points, while the Nasdaq Composite traded around the flatline.</p><p><blockquote>标普500仅下跌0.1%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌56点，而纳斯达克综合指数则在持平线附近交易。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62d23a87f9d782585bf07d2007a7b057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Shares of Southwest Airlines rose 1.6% after the carrier&nbsp;said leisure travel bookings continue to rise and that it expects to&nbsp;break even \"or better\" by June.Southwest also posted a narrower-than-expected loss for the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空股价上涨1.6%，此前该航空公司表示，休闲旅游预订量继续上升，预计到6月份将“或更好”实现收支平衡。西南航空还公布了第一季度的亏损窄于预期。</blockquote></p><p>American Airlines rallied 3% after the company said its cash flow turned positive by the end of the quarter, excluding debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>美国航空(American Airlines)股价上涨3%，此前该公司表示，不包括债务支付，其现金流在本季度末转为正值。</blockquote></p><p>The market remained little changed after a better-than-expected reading on weekly jobless claims. The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment insurance&nbsp;totaled 547,000,which was below the Dow Jones estimate for 603,000.</p><p><blockquote>在每周初请失业金人数好于预期后，市场变化不大。美国劳工部周四表示，首次申请失业保险的人数总计547,000人，低于道琼斯预期的603,000人。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks rose on Wednesday&nbsp;during regular trading hours, snapping a two-day losing streak, as companies tied to the economy reopening led the way higher. The Dow advanced 316 points, or 0.93%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.93%. The Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer of the major indices, rallying 1.19%.</p><p><blockquote>周三，股市在常规交易时间上涨，结束了连续两天的下跌，与经济重新开放相关的公司领涨。道指上涨316点，涨幅0.93%，标普500上涨0.93%。纳斯达克综合指数相对跑赢主要指数，上涨1.19%。</blockquote></p><p>Small caps were a particular point of strength during the session, with the Russell 2000 ending the day 2.35% higher for its best day since March 1.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股是盘中的一个特别强项，罗素2000指数收盘上涨2.35%，为3月1日以来的最佳单日表现。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow and S&amp;P 500 are less than 1% away from reclaiming their record highs, reached last Friday, amid ongoing optimism over the pace of the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>由于人们对经济复苏步伐持续乐观，道琼斯指数和标普500指数距离收复上周五创下的历史高点不到1%。</blockquote></p><p>“Stocks continue to fire on almost ‘all cylinders’ and remain in a strong position as the bull expands across the cyclical, secular, and increasingly the defensive [sector] with an economy on the offensive,” noted strategists at Evercore ISI. “The sum of which in conjunction with rising metals and materials, a milquetoast dollar, and a 10-year at 1.55%, offers the technical definition of ‘Goldilocks’ as we consolidate the powerful rally atop key support,” the firm said.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI的策略师指出：“随着经济处于进攻性，周期性、长期和防御性日益增强的[行业]牛市继续几乎‘全速运转’，并保持强势地位。”该公司表示：“当我们巩固关键支撑位上方的强劲反弹时，再加上金属和材料的上涨、最脆弱的美元以及1.55%的10年期国债，提供了‘金发姑娘’的技术定义。”</blockquote></p><p>A busy week of earnings season continued on Thursday with a host of companies set to report quarterly results.Intel,Snap,Mattel,Boston Beer&nbsp;and&nbsp;Seagate Technology&nbsp;will report after the market closes.</p><p><blockquote>周四，财报季繁忙的一周仍在继续，许多公司将公布季度业绩。英特尔、Snap、美泰、波士顿啤酒和希捷科技将在收盘后发布报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 is flat as market struggles for a direction<blockquote>市场苦苦寻找方向，标普500表现平淡</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 is flat as market struggles for a direction<blockquote>市场苦苦寻找方向，标普500表现平淡</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-22 21:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S stocks were muted on Thursday following a strong day of gains as the market struggled for a direction after a big rally to start the year.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市在经历了一天的强劲上涨后，周四表现低迷，市场在年初大幅上涨后难以找到方向。</blockquote></p><p>The S&amp;P 500 dipped just 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 56 points, while the Nasdaq Composite traded around the flatline.</p><p><blockquote>标普500仅下跌0.1%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌56点，而纳斯达克综合指数则在持平线附近交易。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62d23a87f9d782585bf07d2007a7b057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Shares of Southwest Airlines rose 1.6% after the carrier&nbsp;said leisure travel bookings continue to rise and that it expects to&nbsp;break even \"or better\" by June.Southwest also posted a narrower-than-expected loss for the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>西南航空股价上涨1.6%，此前该航空公司表示，休闲旅游预订量继续上升，预计到6月份将“或更好”实现收支平衡。西南航空还公布了第一季度的亏损窄于预期。</blockquote></p><p>American Airlines rallied 3% after the company said its cash flow turned positive by the end of the quarter, excluding debt payments.</p><p><blockquote>美国航空(American Airlines)股价上涨3%，此前该公司表示，不包括债务支付，其现金流在本季度末转为正值。</blockquote></p><p>The market remained little changed after a better-than-expected reading on weekly jobless claims. The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment insurance&nbsp;totaled 547,000,which was below the Dow Jones estimate for 603,000.</p><p><blockquote>在每周初请失业金人数好于预期后，市场变化不大。美国劳工部周四表示，首次申请失业保险的人数总计547,000人，低于道琼斯预期的603,000人。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks rose on Wednesday&nbsp;during regular trading hours, snapping a two-day losing streak, as companies tied to the economy reopening led the way higher. The Dow advanced 316 points, or 0.93%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.93%. The Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer of the major indices, rallying 1.19%.</p><p><blockquote>周三，股市在常规交易时间上涨，结束了连续两天的下跌，与经济重新开放相关的公司领涨。道指上涨316点，涨幅0.93%，标普500上涨0.93%。纳斯达克综合指数相对跑赢主要指数，上涨1.19%。</blockquote></p><p>Small caps were a particular point of strength during the session, with the Russell 2000 ending the day 2.35% higher for its best day since March 1.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股是盘中的一个特别强项，罗素2000指数收盘上涨2.35%，为3月1日以来的最佳单日表现。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow and S&amp;P 500 are less than 1% away from reclaiming their record highs, reached last Friday, amid ongoing optimism over the pace of the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>由于人们对经济复苏步伐持续乐观，道琼斯指数和标普500指数距离收复上周五创下的历史高点不到1%。</blockquote></p><p>“Stocks continue to fire on almost ‘all cylinders’ and remain in a strong position as the bull expands across the cyclical, secular, and increasingly the defensive [sector] with an economy on the offensive,” noted strategists at Evercore ISI. “The sum of which in conjunction with rising metals and materials, a milquetoast dollar, and a 10-year at 1.55%, offers the technical definition of ‘Goldilocks’ as we consolidate the powerful rally atop key support,” the firm said.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI的策略师指出：“随着经济处于进攻性，周期性、长期和防御性日益增强的[行业]牛市继续几乎‘全速运转’，并保持强势地位。”该公司表示：“当我们巩固关键支撑位上方的强劲反弹时，再加上金属和材料的上涨、最脆弱的美元以及1.55%的10年期国债，提供了‘金发姑娘’的技术定义。”</blockquote></p><p>A busy week of earnings season continued on Thursday with a host of companies set to report quarterly results.Intel,Snap,Mattel,Boston Beer&nbsp;and&nbsp;Seagate Technology&nbsp;will report after the market closes.</p><p><blockquote>周四，财报季繁忙的一周仍在继续，许多公司将公布季度业绩。英特尔、Snap、美泰、波士顿啤酒和希捷科技将在收盘后发布报告。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141448708","content_text":"U.S stocks were muted on Thursday following a strong day of gains as the market struggled for a direction after a big rally to start the year.The S&P 500 dipped just 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 56 points, while the Nasdaq Composite traded around the flatline.Shares of Southwest Airlines rose 1.6% after the carrier said leisure travel bookings continue to rise and that it expects to break even \"or better\" by June.Southwest also posted a narrower-than-expected loss for the first quarter.American Airlines rallied 3% after the company said its cash flow turned positive by the end of the quarter, excluding debt payments.The market remained little changed after a better-than-expected reading on weekly jobless claims. The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 547,000,which was below the Dow Jones estimate for 603,000.Stocks rose on Wednesday during regular trading hours, snapping a two-day losing streak, as companies tied to the economy reopening led the way higher. The Dow advanced 316 points, or 0.93%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.93%. The Nasdaq Composite was the relative outperformer of the major indices, rallying 1.19%.Small caps were a particular point of strength during the session, with the Russell 2000 ending the day 2.35% higher for its best day since March 1.The Dow and S&P 500 are less than 1% away from reclaiming their record highs, reached last Friday, amid ongoing optimism over the pace of the economic recovery.“Stocks continue to fire on almost ‘all cylinders’ and remain in a strong position as the bull expands across the cyclical, secular, and increasingly the defensive [sector] with an economy on the offensive,” noted strategists at Evercore ISI. “The sum of which in conjunction with rising metals and materials, a milquetoast dollar, and a 10-year at 1.55%, offers the technical definition of ‘Goldilocks’ as we consolidate the powerful rally atop key support,” the firm said.A busy week of earnings season continued on Thursday with a host of companies set to report quarterly results.Intel,Snap,Mattel,Boston Beer and Seagate Technology will report after the market closes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371777875,"gmtCreate":1618976301997,"gmtModify":1634289467433,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No reason to fret&nbsp;","listText":"No reason to fret&nbsp;","text":"No reason to fret","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371777875","repostId":"2129289138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379244308,"gmtCreate":1618753103004,"gmtModify":1634291098840,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570343633899015\">@xiaochan</a>:Wow","listText":"Wow//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570343633899015\">@xiaochan</a>:Wow","text":"Wow//@xiaochan:Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379244308","repostId":"1155509413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155509413","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618587639,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155509413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155509413","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories  accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd .Taiwan","content":"<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧持续的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆底座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗组件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆厂（FAB）占全球制造能力的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水资源储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年风暴的缺乏导致供水中断，促使政府开始对100多万企业和居民实行水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于得克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易代码：RNECF）日本工厂因二月地震和三月火灾而受到阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>负责大部分芯片制造设施的台湾三个科学工业园区不得不限制用水量，但迄今为止并未停工。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>表示，在减少对其一个芯片工厂的供应后，替代水源和加速节约将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中和桃园设有设施。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>新竹TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM还试图利用他们建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM估计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为这些芯片的生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月引入了干旱灾害响应机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM的目标是到2030年将单位用水量比2010年的水平减少30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，TSM约占台湾GDP的4.5%，过去五年芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的帮助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM股价持平于118.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>《华尔街日报》：台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-16 23:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧持续的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆底座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗组件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆厂（FAB）占全球制造能力的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水资源储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年风暴的缺乏导致供水中断，促使政府开始对100多万企业和居民实行水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于得克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易代码：RNECF）日本工厂因二月地震和三月火灾而受到阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>负责大部分芯片制造设施的台湾三个科学工业园区不得不限制用水量，但迄今为止并未停工。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>表示，在减少对其一个芯片工厂的供应后，替代水源和加速节约将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中和桃园设有设施。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>新竹TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM还试图利用他们建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM估计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为这些芯片的生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月引入了干旱灾害响应机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM的目标是到2030年将单位用水量比2010年的水平减少30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，TSM约占台湾GDP的4.5%，过去五年芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的帮助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM股价持平于118.35美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","TSM":"台积电"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155509413","content_text":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.\nTaiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (NYSE: TSM).\nTaiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.\nSamsung Electronics Co Ltd (OTC: SSNLF) had to temporarily shut down two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer Renesas Electronics Corp’s (OTC: RNECF) Japanese plant was hampered by the February earthquake and a March fire.\nTaiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.\nAlternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.\nHsinchu-based TSM and United Microelectronics Corp (NYSE: UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.\nTSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.\nHowever, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.\nTaiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.\nThe government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.\nTSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.\nGermany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.\nPrice action: TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370100261,"gmtCreate":1618558800253,"gmtModify":1634292089366,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370100261","repostId":"1113132904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344861866,"gmtCreate":1618397889955,"gmtModify":1634293239335,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow that’s high&nbsp;","listText":"Wow that’s high&nbsp;","text":"Wow that’s high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344861866","repostId":"2127045633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342566563,"gmtCreate":1618233018452,"gmtModify":1634294292279,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342566563","repostId":"1163281187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163281187","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618231959,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163281187?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 20:52","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Crude Oil Price Hovers Around $60 – What Next?<blockquote>原油价格徘徊在60美元附近——接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163281187","media":"VantagePoint","summary":"The price of oil had the best start of the year in more than three decades. Since the crude oil futu","content":"<p><b>The price of oil had the best start of the year in more than three decades. Since the crude oil futures settled below zero in 2020, the market reversed sharply, fueled by hopes of a return to pre-crisis demand levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>油价迎来了三十多年来最好的开局。自2020年原油期货结算价低于零以来，在需求恢复到危机前水平的希望推动下，市场大幅逆转。</b></blockquote></p><p>If one considers the move from negative $40 to positive $60, the hundred dollar’s move in the price of oil is the largest one ever recorded. The market, however, found strong resistance at the $60 level, despite optimism about vaccines’ efficacy and, thus, the end of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>如果考虑到从负40美元到正60美元的波动，油价100美元的波动是有记录以来最大的一次。然而，尽管人们对疫苗的功效以及大流行的结束持乐观态度，但市场在60美元的水平遇到了强劲阻力。</blockquote></p><p>What next for the price of oil?</p><p><blockquote>石油价格的下一步是什么？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d3f578c78fc6e6a1e98266d7855ca5\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Fossil Fuels Use Expected to Decline Dramatically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>化石燃料使用量预计将大幅下降</b></blockquote></p><p>The world shifts away from fossil fuels. It has no other choice, as pointed by rising temperatures and extreme meteorological phenomena.</p><p><blockquote>世界正在远离化石燃料。正如气温上升和极端气象现象所表明的那样，它别无选择。</blockquote></p><p>Yet, oil still represents a big part of the current energy mix. Nations around the world promised to reduce their CO2 emissions in the next decades, and big action was already taken. As seen in the European Union, join efforts do pay off, as the CO2 levels in the European Union declined in the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油仍然是当前能源结构的重要组成部分。世界各国承诺在未来几十年减少二氧化碳排放，并且已经采取了重大行动。正如在欧盟看到的那样，共同努力确实得到了回报，因为欧盟的二氧化碳水平在过去十年中有所下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/429f1e28de3d757ef23e112f7a6d9766\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the world as we know it today remains dependent on oil. The price of oil dictates inflation expectations, and there is literally no other alternative to oil’s use at such scale.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们今天所知的世界仍然依赖石油。石油价格决定了通胀预期，除了如此大规模的石油使用之外，几乎没有其他选择。</blockquote></p><p>The period ahead looks extremely interesting for the price of oil and oil traders. On the one hand, the world’s economies are opening up as vaccination campaigns are ongoing. This means more demand for oil, thus bullish for prices. On the other hand, OPEC may intervene, as it did so many times in the past, trying to influence the price of oil.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油价格和石油交易商来说，未来一段时间看起来非常有趣。一方面，随着疫苗接种运动的进行，世界经济正在开放。这意味着对石油的需求增加，从而看涨价格。另一方面，欧佩克可能会进行干预，就像它过去多次做的那样，试图影响石油价格。</blockquote></p><p>Despite the general public’s belief, OPEC’s main interest is not higher oil prices – but stable ones. Just like a central bank, OPEC aims at “price stability,” and it uses its tools at hand to make sure it gets the price it targets.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公众普遍认为，欧佩克的主要兴趣不是更高的油价，而是稳定的油价。就像中央银行一样，欧佩克的目标是“价格稳定”，它使用手头的工具来确保获得目标价格。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09604665431b3580d92c4f350bf43f07\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"919\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So far, the $60 level seems to be that price. Everyone is happy with oil at $60 – central banks like to see some stability so that inflation expectations remain anchored, and OPEC is delighted with the move from negative $40 to positive $60.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，60美元的水平似乎就是这个价格。每个人都对60美元的石油感到高兴——各国央行希望看到一些稳定，从而保持通胀预期，欧佩克也对从负40美元转变为正60美元感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p>While governments will push for greener policies in the near future, oil will still have its role in the energy mix. As long as it consolidates around $60, the bias is that it will push for even higher levels.</p><p><blockquote>尽管各国政府将在不久的将来推动更环保的政策，但石油仍将在能源结构中发挥作用。只要它在60美元附近盘整，人们就会认为它将推动更高的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1615437168461","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crude Oil Price Hovers Around $60 – What Next?<blockquote>原油价格徘徊在60美元附近——接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrude Oil Price Hovers Around $60 – What Next?<blockquote>原油价格徘徊在60美元附近——接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">VantagePoint</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 20:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The price of oil had the best start of the year in more than three decades. Since the crude oil futures settled below zero in 2020, the market reversed sharply, fueled by hopes of a return to pre-crisis demand levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>油价迎来了三十多年来最好的开局。自2020年原油期货结算价低于零以来，在需求恢复到危机前水平的希望推动下，市场大幅逆转。</b></blockquote></p><p>If one considers the move from negative $40 to positive $60, the hundred dollar’s move in the price of oil is the largest one ever recorded. The market, however, found strong resistance at the $60 level, despite optimism about vaccines’ efficacy and, thus, the end of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>如果考虑到从负40美元到正60美元的波动，油价100美元的波动是有记录以来最大的一次。然而，尽管人们对疫苗的功效以及大流行的结束持乐观态度，但市场在60美元的水平遇到了强劲阻力。</blockquote></p><p>What next for the price of oil?</p><p><blockquote>石油价格的下一步是什么？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d3f578c78fc6e6a1e98266d7855ca5\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Fossil Fuels Use Expected to Decline Dramatically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>化石燃料使用量预计将大幅下降</b></blockquote></p><p>The world shifts away from fossil fuels. It has no other choice, as pointed by rising temperatures and extreme meteorological phenomena.</p><p><blockquote>世界正在远离化石燃料。正如气温上升和极端气象现象所表明的那样，它别无选择。</blockquote></p><p>Yet, oil still represents a big part of the current energy mix. Nations around the world promised to reduce their CO2 emissions in the next decades, and big action was already taken. As seen in the European Union, join efforts do pay off, as the CO2 levels in the European Union declined in the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油仍然是当前能源结构的重要组成部分。世界各国承诺在未来几十年减少二氧化碳排放，并且已经采取了重大行动。正如在欧盟看到的那样，共同努力确实得到了回报，因为欧盟的二氧化碳水平在过去十年中有所下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/429f1e28de3d757ef23e112f7a6d9766\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the world as we know it today remains dependent on oil. The price of oil dictates inflation expectations, and there is literally no other alternative to oil’s use at such scale.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们今天所知的世界仍然依赖石油。石油价格决定了通胀预期，除了如此大规模的石油使用之外，几乎没有其他选择。</blockquote></p><p>The period ahead looks extremely interesting for the price of oil and oil traders. On the one hand, the world’s economies are opening up as vaccination campaigns are ongoing. This means more demand for oil, thus bullish for prices. On the other hand, OPEC may intervene, as it did so many times in the past, trying to influence the price of oil.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油价格和石油交易商来说，未来一段时间看起来非常有趣。一方面，随着疫苗接种运动的进行，世界经济正在开放。这意味着对石油的需求增加，从而看涨价格。另一方面，欧佩克可能会进行干预，就像它过去多次做的那样，试图影响石油价格。</blockquote></p><p>Despite the general public’s belief, OPEC’s main interest is not higher oil prices – but stable ones. Just like a central bank, OPEC aims at “price stability,” and it uses its tools at hand to make sure it gets the price it targets.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公众普遍认为，欧佩克的主要兴趣不是更高的油价，而是稳定的油价。就像中央银行一样，欧佩克的目标是“价格稳定”，它使用手头的工具来确保获得目标价格。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09604665431b3580d92c4f350bf43f07\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"919\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So far, the $60 level seems to be that price. Everyone is happy with oil at $60 – central banks like to see some stability so that inflation expectations remain anchored, and OPEC is delighted with the move from negative $40 to positive $60.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，60美元的水平似乎就是这个价格。每个人都对60美元的石油感到高兴——各国央行希望看到一些稳定，从而保持通胀预期，欧佩克也对从负40美元转变为正60美元感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p>While governments will push for greener policies in the near future, oil will still have its role in the energy mix. As long as it consolidates around $60, the bias is that it will push for even higher levels.</p><p><blockquote>尽管各国政府将在不久的将来推动更环保的政策，但石油仍将在能源结构中发挥作用。只要它在60美元附近盘整，人们就会认为它将推动更高的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/crude-oil-price-hovers-around-60-what-next/\">VantagePoint</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/crude-oil-price-hovers-around-60-what-next/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163281187","content_text":"The price of oil had the best start of the year in more than three decades. Since the crude oil futures settled below zero in 2020, the market reversed sharply, fueled by hopes of a return to pre-crisis demand levels.If one considers the move from negative $40 to positive $60, the hundred dollar’s move in the price of oil is the largest one ever recorded. The market, however, found strong resistance at the $60 level, despite optimism about vaccines’ efficacy and, thus, the end of the pandemic.What next for the price of oil?Fossil Fuels Use Expected to Decline DramaticallyThe world shifts away from fossil fuels. It has no other choice, as pointed by rising temperatures and extreme meteorological phenomena.Yet, oil still represents a big part of the current energy mix. Nations around the world promised to reduce their CO2 emissions in the next decades, and big action was already taken. As seen in the European Union, join efforts do pay off, as the CO2 levels in the European Union declined in the last decade.However, the world as we know it today remains dependent on oil. The price of oil dictates inflation expectations, and there is literally no other alternative to oil’s use at such scale.The period ahead looks extremely interesting for the price of oil and oil traders. On the one hand, the world’s economies are opening up as vaccination campaigns are ongoing. This means more demand for oil, thus bullish for prices. On the other hand, OPEC may intervene, as it did so many times in the past, trying to influence the price of oil.Despite the general public’s belief, OPEC’s main interest is not higher oil prices – but stable ones. Just like a central bank, OPEC aims at “price stability,” and it uses its tools at hand to make sure it gets the price it targets.So far, the $60 level seems to be that price. Everyone is happy with oil at $60 – central banks like to see some stability so that inflation expectations remain anchored, and OPEC is delighted with the move from negative $40 to positive $60.While governments will push for greener policies in the near future, oil will still have its role in the energy mix. As long as it consolidates around $60, the bias is that it will push for even higher levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348461660,"gmtCreate":1617953975450,"gmtModify":1634295550822,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Of course when you are hitting new highs every other day","listText":"&nbsp;Of course when you are hitting new highs every other day","text":"Of course when you are hitting new highs every other day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348461660","repostId":"1131379513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341891463,"gmtCreate":1617800773852,"gmtModify":1634296446126,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Buy buy buy","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Buy buy buy","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Buy buy buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aab81a1d2c8a5cf1b8c3c18efb6ecb3","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341891463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349143794,"gmtCreate":1617583116518,"gmtModify":1634520473750,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unlikely","listText":"Unlikely","text":"Unlikely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349143794","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349143647,"gmtCreate":1617583089889,"gmtModify":1634520474261,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice!","listText":"Nice nice!","text":"Nice nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349143647","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349305850,"gmtCreate":1617535154170,"gmtModify":1634520611628,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice buy buy buy!","listText":"Nice buy buy buy!","text":"Nice buy buy buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349305850","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352216847,"gmtCreate":1616978014189,"gmtModify":1634523371059,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570343633899015\">@xiaochan</a>:Wow","listText":"Wow//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570343633899015\">@xiaochan</a>:Wow","text":"Wow//@xiaochan:Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352216847","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预期将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015年至2025年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预期将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015年至2025年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358553289,"gmtCreate":1616718059841,"gmtModify":1634524416158,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358553289","repostId":"1186949092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358131174,"gmtCreate":1616671374498,"gmtModify":1634524644687,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sigh","listText":"Sigh","text":"Sigh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358131174","repostId":"1167131291","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353875683,"gmtCreate":1616487581042,"gmtModify":1634525575449,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353875683","repostId":"2121175991","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":349143794,"gmtCreate":1617583116518,"gmtModify":1634520473750,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unlikely","listText":"Unlikely","text":"Unlikely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349143794","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349305850,"gmtCreate":1617535154170,"gmtModify":1634520611628,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice buy buy buy!","listText":"Nice buy buy buy!","text":"Nice buy buy buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349305850","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":367492144,"gmtCreate":1614960040788,"gmtModify":1703483653039,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367492144","repostId":"1169596583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169596583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614958557,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169596583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169596583","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.","content":"<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir plunged more than 13%<blockquote>Palantir暴跌超13%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-05 23:35</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 5)&nbsp;Palantir plunged more than 13%.</p><p><blockquote>（3月5日）Palantir暴跌超13%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f756ec57cca85c31b6be070941d7c1\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169596583","content_text":"(March 5) Palantir plunged more than 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619566832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187199105?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187199105","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in e","content":"<p>AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended session<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174cfb55080b96346856b267d6c023ed\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在创纪录的季度销售额后上调全年收入指引，股价在延长交易时段上涨逾3%芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices Inc.表示，数据中心收入增长了一倍多，推动了创纪录的季度销售额，并上调了今年的收入预期，该公司股价在周二的延长交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD&nbsp;Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在与分析师的看涨期权中表示：“第一季度，数据中心产品收入同比增长了一倍多，占我们总收入的比例很高。”“我们预计，在我们强大的新云、企业和[高性能计算]胜利渠道的推动下，数据中心产品收入将在今年大幅增长。”</blockquote></p><p>Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.</p><p><blockquote>企业嵌入式和半定制芯片（包括数据中心和游戏机收入）的销售额几乎翻了两番，达到13.5亿美元，而一年前为3.48亿美元。FactSet调查的分析师预计为13亿美元。苏关于数据中心收入的评论很有帮助，因为AMD不会将数据中心销售额与游戏销售额分开。</blockquote></p><p>“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们在第一季度看到了真正强烈的信号，表明今年对我们来说将是数据中心强劲的一年，”苏告诉分析师。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, Intel Corp&nbsp;said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英特尔公司表示，数据中心市场正处于“消化阶段”，导致数据中心销售额下降20%，但分析师指出，来自AMD和ARM Holdings PLC的竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度净利润为5.55亿美元，即每股45美分，而去年同期为1.62亿美元，即每股14美分。在调整股票薪酬和其他因素后，这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司报告每股收益为52美分，而去年同期为每股18美分。收入从去年同期的17.9亿美元增至34.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测调整后每股收益为44美分，营收为31.8亿美元，AMD预计在31亿至33亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度计算和图形芯片销售额为21亿美元，较去年的14.4亿美元增长46%，分析师预期为18.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>高管们还提高了AMD全年销售额指引，从之前指引的约37%增长至约50%。AMD去年营收为96.7亿美元，暗示今年销售额约为146.5亿美元；FactSet的数据显示，分析师此前预测营收为134.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，AMD预计第二季度营收为35亿至37亿美元，而分析师此前预计为32.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.</p><p><blockquote>该股在常规交易中下跌0.2%，收于85.21美元，在盘后交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p>AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲盈利是在满足全球行业需求的微芯片持续短缺的情况下出现的，而制造芯片设计所用硅片的公司正在努力清理长达数月的等待名单。</blockquote></p><p>More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业如何应对供应短缺的更多信息将于本周公布，高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.QCOM)周三盈利-0.68%，KLA Corp.KLAC(KLAC)周四盈利-1.58%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;is up 61%.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，AMD股价上涨了51%。相比之下，PHLX半导体指数SOX,-0.76%上涨87%，标普500指数上涨54%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨61%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD stock rises after earnings show data-center sales more than doubling<blockquote>财报显示数据中心销售额增长一倍多后，AMD股价上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 07:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended session<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174cfb55080b96346856b267d6c023ed\" tg-width=\"706\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在创纪录的季度销售额后上调全年收入指引，股价在延长交易时段上涨逾3%芯片制造商Advanced Micro Devices Inc.表示，数据中心收入增长了一倍多，推动了创纪录的季度销售额，并上调了今年的收入预期，该公司股价在周二的延长交易中上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD&nbsp;Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”</p><p><blockquote>AMD首席执行官苏姿丰在与分析师的看涨期权中表示：“第一季度，数据中心产品收入同比增长了一倍多，占我们总收入的比例很高。”“我们预计，在我们强大的新云、企业和[高性能计算]胜利渠道的推动下，数据中心产品收入将在今年大幅增长。”</blockquote></p><p>Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.</p><p><blockquote>企业嵌入式和半定制芯片（包括数据中心和游戏机收入）的销售额几乎翻了两番，达到13.5亿美元，而一年前为3.48亿美元。FactSet调查的分析师预计为13亿美元。苏关于数据中心收入的评论很有帮助，因为AMD不会将数据中心销售额与游戏销售额分开。</blockquote></p><p>“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为我们在第一季度看到了真正强烈的信号，表明今年对我们来说将是数据中心强劲的一年，”苏告诉分析师。</blockquote></p><p>Last week, Intel Corp&nbsp;said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英特尔公司表示，数据中心市场正处于“消化阶段”，导致数据中心销售额下降20%，但分析师指出，来自AMD和ARM Holdings PLC的竞争加剧。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度净利润为5.55亿美元，即每股45美分，而去年同期为1.62亿美元，即每股14美分。在调整股票薪酬和其他因素后，这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的公司报告每股收益为52美分，而去年同期为每股18美分。收入从去年同期的17.9亿美元增至34.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测调整后每股收益为44美分，营收为31.8亿美元，AMD预计在31亿至33亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p>AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD公布第一季度计算和图形芯片销售额为21亿美元，较去年的14.4亿美元增长46%，分析师预期为18.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>高管们还提高了AMD全年销售额指引，从之前指引的约37%增长至约50%。AMD去年营收为96.7亿美元，暗示今年销售额约为146.5亿美元；FactSet的数据显示，分析师此前预测营收为134.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，AMD预计第二季度营收为35亿至37亿美元，而分析师此前预计为32.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.</p><p><blockquote>该股在常规交易中下跌0.2%，收于85.21美元，在盘后交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p>AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲盈利是在满足全球行业需求的微芯片持续短缺的情况下出现的，而制造芯片设计所用硅片的公司正在努力清理长达数月的等待名单。</blockquote></p><p>More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业如何应对供应短缺的更多信息将于本周公布，高通公司(Qualcomm Inc.QCOM)周三盈利-0.68%，KLA Corp.KLAC(KLAC)周四盈利-1.58%。</blockquote></p><p>Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;is up 61%.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，AMD股价上涨了51%。相比之下，PHLX半导体指数SOX,-0.76%上涨87%，标普500指数上涨54%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨61%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187199105","content_text":"AMD increases full-year revenue guidance after record quarterly sales, stock jumps more than 3% in extended sessionAdvanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker said data-center revenue more than doubled to fuel record quarterly sales, and increased its revenue forecast for the year.“In the first quarter, data-center product revenue more than doubled year-over-year and represented a high teens percentage of our overall revenue,” said AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su on a call with analysts. “We expect data-center product revenue to grow significantly as we go through the year driven by our strong pipeline of new cloud, enterprise and [high-performance computing] wins.”Sales from enterprise embedded and semi-custom chips — the unit that includes data-center and gaming-console revenue — nearly quadrupled to $1.35 billion, compared with $348 million a year ago. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.3 billion. Su’s comments about data-center revenue were helpful asAMD does not break out data-center sales from gaming sales.“I think we saw actually strong signals in the first quarter that it would be a strong data-center year for us,” Su told analysts.Last week, Intel Corp said the data-center market was in a“digestion phase,”contributing to a 20% drop in sales for data centers, yetanalysts pointed to increased competition from AMD and ARM Holdings PLC.AMD reported first-quarter net income of $555 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $162 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation and other factors, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company reported earnings of 52 cents a share, compared with 18 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.45 billion from $1.79 billion in the year-ago quarter.Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of $3.18 billion, and AMD projected between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion.AMD reported first-quarter sales of $2.1 billion for computing and graphics chips, up 46% from $1.44 billion last year, compared with analyst expectations of $1.89 billion.Executives also increased AMD’s guidance for the full year, to a sales increase of about 50% from previous guidance of a roughly 37% increase. AMD reported revenue of $9.67 billion last year, suggesting sales of about $14.65 billion this year; analysts had been forecasting revenue of $13.46 billion, according to FactSet.AMD expects second-quarter revenue of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion, while analysts had been projecting $3.23 billion, according to FactSet.Shares gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, following a 0.2% decline in the regular session to close at $85.21.AMD’s strong earnings come amid a continuing shortage of microchips to sate demand from global industries, and the companies that make the silicon wafers that chip designs use, work to clear waiting lists that span several months.More of how the chip sector is dealing with supply shortages will be revealed this week, with Qualcomm Inc.QCOM,-0.68%earnings on Wednesday and KLA Corp.KLAC,-1.58%earnings on Thursday.Over the past 12 months, AMD shares have gained 51%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor IndexSOX,-0.76%has gained 87%, the S&P 500 index has risen 54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is up 61%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342566563,"gmtCreate":1618233018452,"gmtModify":1634294292279,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342566563","repostId":"1163281187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163281187","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618231959,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163281187?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 20:52","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Crude Oil Price Hovers Around $60 – What Next?<blockquote>原油价格徘徊在60美元附近——接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163281187","media":"VantagePoint","summary":"The price of oil had the best start of the year in more than three decades. Since the crude oil futu","content":"<p><b>The price of oil had the best start of the year in more than three decades. Since the crude oil futures settled below zero in 2020, the market reversed sharply, fueled by hopes of a return to pre-crisis demand levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>油价迎来了三十多年来最好的开局。自2020年原油期货结算价低于零以来，在需求恢复到危机前水平的希望推动下，市场大幅逆转。</b></blockquote></p><p>If one considers the move from negative $40 to positive $60, the hundred dollar’s move in the price of oil is the largest one ever recorded. The market, however, found strong resistance at the $60 level, despite optimism about vaccines’ efficacy and, thus, the end of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>如果考虑到从负40美元到正60美元的波动，油价100美元的波动是有记录以来最大的一次。然而，尽管人们对疫苗的功效以及大流行的结束持乐观态度，但市场在60美元的水平遇到了强劲阻力。</blockquote></p><p>What next for the price of oil?</p><p><blockquote>石油价格的下一步是什么？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d3f578c78fc6e6a1e98266d7855ca5\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Fossil Fuels Use Expected to Decline Dramatically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>化石燃料使用量预计将大幅下降</b></blockquote></p><p>The world shifts away from fossil fuels. It has no other choice, as pointed by rising temperatures and extreme meteorological phenomena.</p><p><blockquote>世界正在远离化石燃料。正如气温上升和极端气象现象所表明的那样，它别无选择。</blockquote></p><p>Yet, oil still represents a big part of the current energy mix. Nations around the world promised to reduce their CO2 emissions in the next decades, and big action was already taken. As seen in the European Union, join efforts do pay off, as the CO2 levels in the European Union declined in the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油仍然是当前能源结构的重要组成部分。世界各国承诺在未来几十年减少二氧化碳排放，并且已经采取了重大行动。正如在欧盟看到的那样，共同努力确实得到了回报，因为欧盟的二氧化碳水平在过去十年中有所下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/429f1e28de3d757ef23e112f7a6d9766\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the world as we know it today remains dependent on oil. The price of oil dictates inflation expectations, and there is literally no other alternative to oil’s use at such scale.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们今天所知的世界仍然依赖石油。石油价格决定了通胀预期，除了如此大规模的石油使用之外，几乎没有其他选择。</blockquote></p><p>The period ahead looks extremely interesting for the price of oil and oil traders. On the one hand, the world’s economies are opening up as vaccination campaigns are ongoing. This means more demand for oil, thus bullish for prices. On the other hand, OPEC may intervene, as it did so many times in the past, trying to influence the price of oil.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油价格和石油交易商来说，未来一段时间看起来非常有趣。一方面，随着疫苗接种运动的进行，世界经济正在开放。这意味着对石油的需求增加，从而看涨价格。另一方面，欧佩克可能会进行干预，就像它过去多次做的那样，试图影响石油价格。</blockquote></p><p>Despite the general public’s belief, OPEC’s main interest is not higher oil prices – but stable ones. Just like a central bank, OPEC aims at “price stability,” and it uses its tools at hand to make sure it gets the price it targets.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公众普遍认为，欧佩克的主要兴趣不是更高的油价，而是稳定的油价。就像中央银行一样，欧佩克的目标是“价格稳定”，它使用手头的工具来确保获得目标价格。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09604665431b3580d92c4f350bf43f07\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"919\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So far, the $60 level seems to be that price. Everyone is happy with oil at $60 – central banks like to see some stability so that inflation expectations remain anchored, and OPEC is delighted with the move from negative $40 to positive $60.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，60美元的水平似乎就是这个价格。每个人都对60美元的石油感到高兴——各国央行希望看到一些稳定，从而保持通胀预期，欧佩克也对从负40美元转变为正60美元感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p>While governments will push for greener policies in the near future, oil will still have its role in the energy mix. As long as it consolidates around $60, the bias is that it will push for even higher levels.</p><p><blockquote>尽管各国政府将在不久的将来推动更环保的政策，但石油仍将在能源结构中发挥作用。只要它在60美元附近盘整，人们就会认为它将推动更高的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1615437168461","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crude Oil Price Hovers Around $60 – What Next?<blockquote>原油价格徘徊在60美元附近——接下来会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrude Oil Price Hovers Around $60 – What Next?<blockquote>原油价格徘徊在60美元附近——接下来会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">VantagePoint</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 20:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The price of oil had the best start of the year in more than three decades. Since the crude oil futures settled below zero in 2020, the market reversed sharply, fueled by hopes of a return to pre-crisis demand levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>油价迎来了三十多年来最好的开局。自2020年原油期货结算价低于零以来，在需求恢复到危机前水平的希望推动下，市场大幅逆转。</b></blockquote></p><p>If one considers the move from negative $40 to positive $60, the hundred dollar’s move in the price of oil is the largest one ever recorded. The market, however, found strong resistance at the $60 level, despite optimism about vaccines’ efficacy and, thus, the end of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>如果考虑到从负40美元到正60美元的波动，油价100美元的波动是有记录以来最大的一次。然而，尽管人们对疫苗的功效以及大流行的结束持乐观态度，但市场在60美元的水平遇到了强劲阻力。</blockquote></p><p>What next for the price of oil?</p><p><blockquote>石油价格的下一步是什么？</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d3f578c78fc6e6a1e98266d7855ca5\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Fossil Fuels Use Expected to Decline Dramatically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>化石燃料使用量预计将大幅下降</b></blockquote></p><p>The world shifts away from fossil fuels. It has no other choice, as pointed by rising temperatures and extreme meteorological phenomena.</p><p><blockquote>世界正在远离化石燃料。正如气温上升和极端气象现象所表明的那样，它别无选择。</blockquote></p><p>Yet, oil still represents a big part of the current energy mix. Nations around the world promised to reduce their CO2 emissions in the next decades, and big action was already taken. As seen in the European Union, join efforts do pay off, as the CO2 levels in the European Union declined in the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>然而，石油仍然是当前能源结构的重要组成部分。世界各国承诺在未来几十年减少二氧化碳排放，并且已经采取了重大行动。正如在欧盟看到的那样，共同努力确实得到了回报，因为欧盟的二氧化碳水平在过去十年中有所下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/429f1e28de3d757ef23e112f7a6d9766\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"705\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the world as we know it today remains dependent on oil. The price of oil dictates inflation expectations, and there is literally no other alternative to oil’s use at such scale.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们今天所知的世界仍然依赖石油。石油价格决定了通胀预期，除了如此大规模的石油使用之外，几乎没有其他选择。</blockquote></p><p>The period ahead looks extremely interesting for the price of oil and oil traders. On the one hand, the world’s economies are opening up as vaccination campaigns are ongoing. This means more demand for oil, thus bullish for prices. On the other hand, OPEC may intervene, as it did so many times in the past, trying to influence the price of oil.</p><p><blockquote>对于石油价格和石油交易商来说，未来一段时间看起来非常有趣。一方面，随着疫苗接种运动的进行，世界经济正在开放。这意味着对石油的需求增加，从而看涨价格。另一方面，欧佩克可能会进行干预，就像它过去多次做的那样，试图影响石油价格。</blockquote></p><p>Despite the general public’s belief, OPEC’s main interest is not higher oil prices – but stable ones. Just like a central bank, OPEC aims at “price stability,” and it uses its tools at hand to make sure it gets the price it targets.</p><p><blockquote>尽管公众普遍认为，欧佩克的主要兴趣不是更高的油价，而是稳定的油价。就像中央银行一样，欧佩克的目标是“价格稳定”，它使用手头的工具来确保获得目标价格。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09604665431b3580d92c4f350bf43f07\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"919\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So far, the $60 level seems to be that price. Everyone is happy with oil at $60 – central banks like to see some stability so that inflation expectations remain anchored, and OPEC is delighted with the move from negative $40 to positive $60.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，60美元的水平似乎就是这个价格。每个人都对60美元的石油感到高兴——各国央行希望看到一些稳定，从而保持通胀预期，欧佩克也对从负40美元转变为正60美元感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p>While governments will push for greener policies in the near future, oil will still have its role in the energy mix. As long as it consolidates around $60, the bias is that it will push for even higher levels.</p><p><blockquote>尽管各国政府将在不久的将来推动更环保的政策，但石油仍将在能源结构中发挥作用。只要它在60美元附近盘整，人们就会认为它将推动更高的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/crude-oil-price-hovers-around-60-what-next/\">VantagePoint</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://vantagepointtrading.com/news/crude-oil-price-hovers-around-60-what-next/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163281187","content_text":"The price of oil had the best start of the year in more than three decades. Since the crude oil futures settled below zero in 2020, the market reversed sharply, fueled by hopes of a return to pre-crisis demand levels.If one considers the move from negative $40 to positive $60, the hundred dollar’s move in the price of oil is the largest one ever recorded. The market, however, found strong resistance at the $60 level, despite optimism about vaccines’ efficacy and, thus, the end of the pandemic.What next for the price of oil?Fossil Fuels Use Expected to Decline DramaticallyThe world shifts away from fossil fuels. It has no other choice, as pointed by rising temperatures and extreme meteorological phenomena.Yet, oil still represents a big part of the current energy mix. Nations around the world promised to reduce their CO2 emissions in the next decades, and big action was already taken. As seen in the European Union, join efforts do pay off, as the CO2 levels in the European Union declined in the last decade.However, the world as we know it today remains dependent on oil. The price of oil dictates inflation expectations, and there is literally no other alternative to oil’s use at such scale.The period ahead looks extremely interesting for the price of oil and oil traders. On the one hand, the world’s economies are opening up as vaccination campaigns are ongoing. This means more demand for oil, thus bullish for prices. On the other hand, OPEC may intervene, as it did so many times in the past, trying to influence the price of oil.Despite the general public’s belief, OPEC’s main interest is not higher oil prices – but stable ones. Just like a central bank, OPEC aims at “price stability,” and it uses its tools at hand to make sure it gets the price it targets.So far, the $60 level seems to be that price. Everyone is happy with oil at $60 – central banks like to see some stability so that inflation expectations remain anchored, and OPEC is delighted with the move from negative $40 to positive $60.While governments will push for greener policies in the near future, oil will still have its role in the energy mix. As long as it consolidates around $60, the bias is that it will push for even higher levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374033803,"gmtCreate":1619400958302,"gmtModify":1634273790127,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Highs will only get higher","listText":"Highs will only get higher","text":"Highs will only get higher","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374033803","repostId":"1136207293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136207293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619400431,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136207293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The last Roaring Twenties ended in disaster. Should investors be worried?<blockquote>上一个咆哮的二十年代以灾难告终。投资者应该担心吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136207293","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - If this is a new Roaring Twenties for stocks and the economy, do we need t","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;If this is a new Roaring Twenties for&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;and the&nbsp;economy, do we need to worry about how the 1920s ended?</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>——如果这是股市和经济新的咆哮的20年代，我们是否需要担心20年代是如何结束的？</blockquote></p><p> There has been a lot of talk about how the combination of massive economic&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;and&nbsp;vaccines for Covid-19&nbsp;could bring about a lengthy financial boom — just as there was during the 1920s after the end of the influenza pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>人们一直在谈论大规模经济刺激和Covid-19疫苗的结合如何带来长期的金融繁荣——就像大流行流感结束后的20世纪20年代一样。</blockquote></p><p> But if you follow this analogy to its conclusion, there could be a major cause for concern. After all, the 1920s ended with the Black Tuesday stock market crash in October 1929 — right at the onset of the Great Depression.</p><p><blockquote>但是如果你按照这个类比得出结论，可能会有一个令人担忧的主要原因。毕竟，20世纪20年代以1929年10月的黑色星期二股市崩盘而告终——就在大萧条开始的时候。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Roaring Twenties were a great period of time for investors but they didn't end well,\" said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Schwab Center for Financial Research.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财金融研究中心交易和衍生品副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克(Randy Frederick)表示：“对投资者来说，繁荣的二十年代是一段美好的时光，但结局并不好。”</blockquote></p><p> Some experts worry that similar excesses could be building now in the stock market and economy. You see it with the rise of meme stocks likeGameStop(GME), the surge in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and the unrelenting runup in US housing prices.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家担心，类似的过度行为现在可能正在股市和经济中积累。你可以从GameStop(GME)等模因股票的上涨、比特币和其他加密货币的飙升以及美国房价的持续上涨中看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Still, that doesn't necessarily mean it's time to panic and start preparing for another significant upheaval.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这并不一定意味着是时候恐慌并开始为另一场重大剧变做准备了。</blockquote></p><p> \"Another Great Depression scenario is hard to see,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官特洛伊·盖耶斯基(Troy Gayeski)表示：“很难看到另一场大萧条。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90351b7321b271e6cdd9cc103f29166\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>Traders rush in 1929 as the New York Stock Exchange crashes, sparking a run on banks.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>1929年，纽约证券交易所崩盘，引发银行挤兑，交易员蜂拥而至。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gayeski noted that many big businesses and consumers have stockpiled cash. The personal savings rate in the US is currently hovering just under 14% — compared to 7.6% in January 2020.</p><p><blockquote>盖耶斯基指出，许多大企业和消费者都储备了现金。美国的个人储蓄率目前徘徊在略低于14%，而2020年1月为7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This cushion should prevent the economy from going into free fall even if there is more volatility in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使股市波动更大，这种缓冲也应该可以防止经济陷入自由落体。</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't think a short-term hangover will lead to a multi-year downturn,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不认为短期的宿醉会导致多年的低迷，”盖耶斯基说。</blockquote></p><p> Frederick agreed that investors are not worrying about a meltdown, in part because stocks already took a massive hit last year due to the pandemic — and quickly recovered.</p><p><blockquote>弗雷德里克同意，投资者并不担心崩溃，部分原因是股市去年已经因疫情而遭受巨大打击，但很快就恢复了。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is also hopeful that economic policymakers, most notably Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen and current Fed chair Jerome Powell, will not do anything rash that risks jeopardizing the recovery of the economy or market.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街还希望经济政策制定者，尤其是财政部长（前美联储主席）珍妮特·耶伦和现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，不要做出任何可能危及经济或市场复苏的鲁莽行为。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is a lot of confidence in Yellen. She knows what she's doing. And the Fed won't raise rates aggressively,\" said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of Navellier &amp; Associates.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates首席投资官Louis Navellier表示：“人们对耶伦很有信心。她知道自己在做什么。而且美联储不会大幅加息。”</blockquote></p><p> That should keep the economy and financial markets humming along. Of course, there will likely be corrections along the way. That's only natural.</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让经济和金融市场保持繁荣。当然，一路上可能会有修正。那是很自然的。</blockquote></p><p> But Gayeski said it's hard to imagine inflation roaring back in such dramatic fashion that it would lead the Fed, which meets again on Wednesday, to change course.</p><p><blockquote>但盖耶斯基表示，很难想象通胀会以如此戏剧性的方式反弹，以至于导致周三再次开会的美联储改变方针。</blockquote></p><p> Absent that, the Fed can stay on hold and investors won't have to worry that the central bank will grind the economy to a halt with big rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有这一点，美联储可以按兵不动，投资者也不必担心央行会通过大幅加息使经济陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> \"Covid dealt such a massive body blow to the economy but there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and the markets have responded to that. At some point, the Fed may have to gradually let up on the accelerator. But not right now,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“新冠疫情对经济造成了如此巨大的打击，但出现了前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，市场也对此做出了反应。在某个时候，美联储可能不得不逐渐放松油门。但不是现在，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The last Roaring Twenties ended in disaster. Should investors be worried?<blockquote>上一个咆哮的二十年代以灾难告终。投资者应该担心吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe last Roaring Twenties ended in disaster. Should investors be worried?<blockquote>上一个咆哮的二十年代以灾难告终。投资者应该担心吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 09:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;If this is a new Roaring Twenties for&nbsp;stocks&nbsp;and the&nbsp;economy, do we need to worry about how the 1920s ended?</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>——如果这是股市和经济新的咆哮的20年代，我们是否需要担心20年代是如何结束的？</blockquote></p><p> There has been a lot of talk about how the combination of massive economic&nbsp;stimulus&nbsp;and&nbsp;vaccines for Covid-19&nbsp;could bring about a lengthy financial boom — just as there was during the 1920s after the end of the influenza pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>人们一直在谈论大规模经济刺激和Covid-19疫苗的结合如何带来长期的金融繁荣——就像大流行流感结束后的20世纪20年代一样。</blockquote></p><p> But if you follow this analogy to its conclusion, there could be a major cause for concern. After all, the 1920s ended with the Black Tuesday stock market crash in October 1929 — right at the onset of the Great Depression.</p><p><blockquote>但是如果你按照这个类比得出结论，可能会有一个令人担忧的主要原因。毕竟，20世纪20年代以1929年10月的黑色星期二股市崩盘而告终——就在大萧条开始的时候。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Roaring Twenties were a great period of time for investors but they didn't end well,\" said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Schwab Center for Financial Research.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财金融研究中心交易和衍生品副总裁兰迪·弗雷德里克(Randy Frederick)表示：“对投资者来说，繁荣的二十年代是一段美好的时光，但结局并不好。”</blockquote></p><p> Some experts worry that similar excesses could be building now in the stock market and economy. You see it with the rise of meme stocks likeGameStop(GME), the surge in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and the unrelenting runup in US housing prices.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家担心，类似的过度行为现在可能正在股市和经济中积累。你可以从GameStop(GME)等模因股票的上涨、比特币和其他加密货币的飙升以及美国房价的持续上涨中看到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Still, that doesn't necessarily mean it's time to panic and start preparing for another significant upheaval.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，这并不一定意味着是时候恐慌并开始为另一场重大剧变做准备了。</blockquote></p><p> \"Another Great Depression scenario is hard to see,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital.</p><p><blockquote>SkyBridge Capital联席首席投资官特洛伊·盖耶斯基(Troy Gayeski)表示：“很难看到另一场大萧条。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90351b7321b271e6cdd9cc103f29166\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>Traders rush in 1929 as the New York Stock Exchange crashes, sparking a run on banks.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>1929年，纽约证券交易所崩盘，引发银行挤兑，交易员蜂拥而至。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gayeski noted that many big businesses and consumers have stockpiled cash. The personal savings rate in the US is currently hovering just under 14% — compared to 7.6% in January 2020.</p><p><blockquote>盖耶斯基指出，许多大企业和消费者都储备了现金。美国的个人储蓄率目前徘徊在略低于14%，而2020年1月为7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This cushion should prevent the economy from going into free fall even if there is more volatility in stocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使股市波动更大，这种缓冲也应该可以防止经济陷入自由落体。</blockquote></p><p> \"I don't think a short-term hangover will lead to a multi-year downturn,\" Gayeski said.</p><p><blockquote>“我不认为短期的宿醉会导致多年的低迷，”盖耶斯基说。</blockquote></p><p> Frederick agreed that investors are not worrying about a meltdown, in part because stocks already took a massive hit last year due to the pandemic — and quickly recovered.</p><p><blockquote>弗雷德里克同意，投资者并不担心崩溃，部分原因是股市去年已经因疫情而遭受巨大打击，但很快就恢复了。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is also hopeful that economic policymakers, most notably Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen and current Fed chair Jerome Powell, will not do anything rash that risks jeopardizing the recovery of the economy or market.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街还希望经济政策制定者，尤其是财政部长（前美联储主席）珍妮特·耶伦和现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，不要做出任何可能危及经济或市场复苏的鲁莽行为。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is a lot of confidence in Yellen. She knows what she's doing. And the Fed won't raise rates aggressively,\" said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of Navellier &amp; Associates.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates首席投资官Louis Navellier表示：“人们对耶伦很有信心。她知道自己在做什么。而且美联储不会大幅加息。”</blockquote></p><p> That should keep the economy and financial markets humming along. Of course, there will likely be corrections along the way. That's only natural.</p><p><blockquote>这应该会让经济和金融市场保持繁荣。当然，一路上可能会有修正。那是很自然的。</blockquote></p><p> But Gayeski said it's hard to imagine inflation roaring back in such dramatic fashion that it would lead the Fed, which meets again on Wednesday, to change course.</p><p><blockquote>但盖耶斯基表示，很难想象通胀会以如此戏剧性的方式反弹，以至于导致周三再次开会的美联储改变方针。</blockquote></p><p> Absent that, the Fed can stay on hold and investors won't have to worry that the central bank will grind the economy to a halt with big rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有这一点，美联储可以按兵不动，投资者也不必担心央行会通过大幅加息使经济陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> \"Covid dealt such a massive body blow to the economy but there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and the markets have responded to that. At some point, the Fed may have to gradually let up on the accelerator. But not right now,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“新冠疫情对经济造成了如此巨大的打击，但出现了前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，市场也对此做出了反应。在某个时候，美联储可能不得不逐渐放松油门。但不是现在，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/25/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/25/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136207293","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - If this is a new Roaring Twenties for stocks and the economy, do we need to worry about how the 1920s ended?\nThere has been a lot of talk about how the combination of massive economic stimulus and vaccines for Covid-19 could bring about a lengthy financial boom — just as there was during the 1920s after the end of the influenza pandemic.\nBut if you follow this analogy to its conclusion, there could be a major cause for concern. After all, the 1920s ended with the Black Tuesday stock market crash in October 1929 — right at the onset of the Great Depression.\n\"The Roaring Twenties were a great period of time for investors but they didn't end well,\" said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Schwab Center for Financial Research.\nSome experts worry that similar excesses could be building now in the stock market and economy. You see it with the rise of meme stocks likeGameStop(GME), the surge in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and the unrelenting runup in US housing prices.\nStill, that doesn't necessarily mean it's time to panic and start preparing for another significant upheaval.\n\"Another Great Depression scenario is hard to see,\" said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital.\nTraders rush in 1929 as the New York Stock Exchange crashes, sparking a run on banks.\nGayeski noted that many big businesses and consumers have stockpiled cash. The personal savings rate in the US is currently hovering just under 14% — compared to 7.6% in January 2020.\nThis cushion should prevent the economy from going into free fall even if there is more volatility in stocks.\n\"I don't think a short-term hangover will lead to a multi-year downturn,\" Gayeski said.\nFrederick agreed that investors are not worrying about a meltdown, in part because stocks already took a massive hit last year due to the pandemic — and quickly recovered.\nWall Street is also hopeful that economic policymakers, most notably Treasury Secretary (and former Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen and current Fed chair Jerome Powell, will not do anything rash that risks jeopardizing the recovery of the economy or market.\n\"There is a lot of confidence in Yellen. She knows what she's doing. And the Fed won't raise rates aggressively,\" said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer of Navellier & Associates.\nThat should keep the economy and financial markets humming along. Of course, there will likely be corrections along the way. That's only natural.\nBut Gayeski said it's hard to imagine inflation roaring back in such dramatic fashion that it would lead the Fed, which meets again on Wednesday, to change course.\nAbsent that, the Fed can stay on hold and investors won't have to worry that the central bank will grind the economy to a halt with big rate hikes.\n\"Covid dealt such a massive body blow to the economy but there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and the markets have responded to that. At some point, the Fed may have to gradually let up on the accelerator. But not right now,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352216847,"gmtCreate":1616978014189,"gmtModify":1634523371059,"author":{"id":"3573525450886902","authorId":"3573525450886902","name":"Wsoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b12bb5148684b6f69c79e4834e6183","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573525450886902","idStr":"3573525450886902"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570343633899015\">@xiaochan</a>:Wow","listText":"Wow//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570343633899015\">@xiaochan</a>:Wow","text":"Wow//@xiaochan:Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352216847","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预期将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015年至2025年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading<blockquote>知乎科技上市首日下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎科技股价周五开盘价为每股8.02美元，比该公司9.5美元的IPO价格低约15.6%。知乎IPO价格处于区间低端，公司估值约为53亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p><blockquote>知乎公司周五宣布其首次公开募股定价为每股美国存托股9.50美元，处于预期区间的低端。这家总部位于中国的在线内容公司在IPO中发行了5500万份ADS，筹集了5.225亿美元，而该公司的定价约为53.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><blockquote>知乎的商业模式与Quora相似，数百万人提问并交流他们的观点和经验。知乎已经成为国内最大的在线问答社区。</blockquote></p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。我们预计广告占收入的百分比将在未来五年内逐渐下降，因为它被更快增长的付费会员和内容商务解决方案所抵消。我们预计广告占销售额的百分比将在2021年下降至34.1%，在2025年下降至22.3%。</blockquote></p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。我们假设付费会员收入占总收入的百分比将在2021年和2025年分别增至31.5%和37.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划。我们假设内容商务解决方案占总收入的百分比将从2020年的10%跃升至2021年的17.8%和2025年的32.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利率</b></blockquote></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>在业务可扩展性整体提升的推动下，公司毛利率从2019年的46.6%提升至2020年的56.0%。我们假设毛利率在2021年和2025年进一步提高至57.4%和62.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总营业费用和营业利润率</b></blockquote></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><blockquote>总运营费用占收入的百分比由2019年的204.4%大幅下降至2020年的100.6%。我们预计这一比例将在2021年进一步提高至79%，2022年为69.2%，2025年为57.2%。运营费用的改善大部分来自未来五年SG&amp;A和R&amp;D费用占收入百分比的降低。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司背景</b></blockquote></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p><blockquote>2020年底，知乎累计有超过4310万内容创作者，贡献了3.15亿个问答。2020年第四季度，该公司平均月活跃用户为7570万，同比增长33%。该公司的关键优势之一是，它被公认为最值得信赖的在线内容社区之一，并被视为提供中国最优质的内容之一。知乎试图利用其庞大的用户群提供众多多媒体功能，包括直播、电子商务、在线教育和其他视频内容。</blockquote></p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2019年8月，知乎获得了包括百度和快手科技在内的领先投资者4.34亿美元的融资，公司估值为35亿美元。鉴于该公司2019年的销售额为9700万美元，这意味着市盈率估值倍数为36倍。如果我们将相同的市盈率倍数应用于该公司2020年2.07亿美元的销售额，这将表明隐含估值为75亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><blockquote>知乎最初是在2010年作为一个问答在线社区开发的。截至2020年底，共有3.15亿次问答，跨越1000多个垂直领域和57.1万个主题。按2020年平均移动月活跃用户数及收入计，知乎是中国五大综合在线内容社区之一。该公司使用人工智能、云和大数据算法来提高其内容和服务的优化。</blockquote></p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p><blockquote><b>知乎主要股东</b></blockquote></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>创始人兼首席执行官周元拥有该公司8.2%的股份（但拥有46.6%的投票权）。创新工场拥有知乎13.1%的股份，腾讯控股控股有限公司拥有知乎12.3%的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键人口统计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了知乎用户群的一些关键人口统计数据。男性用户占总用户的56.9%。30岁以下人群占其总用户群的78.7%。一线及新一线城市佔总用户群的52.6%。知乎的很多用户都是学生和白领专业人士。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入明细</b></blockquote></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>广告和付费会员占公司收入的最大部分。2019年和2020年，广告分别占总收入的86.1%和62.4%。该公司的广告收入主要由其月活跃用户数和每个月活跃用户数的广告收入推动。2020年，公司月活跃用户数同比增长42.7%至6850万。该公司于2016年开始在线广告业务，并于2018年引入付费内容。</blockquote></p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p><blockquote>付费会员占2019年总收入的13.1%，2020年增至总收入的23.7%。2020年，月均会员同比增长311.5%至236万，这证明越来越多的客户重视知乎上的优质内容。</blockquote></p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p><blockquote>2019年3月，公司推出Yan Selection会员计划，使其成为第一个基于付费的问答社区。它为会员提供了对约340万个付费内容的无限制访问，包括在线讲座、专栏、有声读物和电子期刊。这是该公司最大的优势之一，因为它显示了高质量的数据和内容如何能够产生大量收入，并且还提供了更稳定的每月收入流入。</blockquote></p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，内容商务解决方案和其他销售额也大幅增长。内容商务解决方案收入从2019年的60万元跃升至2020年的1.358亿元。2020年初，该公司推出了内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌提供一站式服务，满足其所有销售和营销需求，包括营销计划、为感兴趣的用户分配最相关的内容创作者以及促进内容创作。</blockquote></p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><blockquote>中国的内容商务解决方案市场预计将成为未来几年增长最快的行业之一。根据灼识谘询的资料，中国内容商务解决方案市场预期于2019年至2025年将享有46.4%的强劲复合年增长率（1,123亿元人民币）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容社区市场规模</b></blockquote></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p><blockquote>在线内容社区是指专注于UGC（用户生成内容）（包括PUGC（专业用户生成内容））的在线内容市场参与者，其中内容创作者也是用户，他们积极参与社区。与PGC（专业生成内容）玩家相比，内容社区通常可以激发更高水平的用户参与度、更具互动性的用户体验，并享受更低的内容成本。PGC是由品牌公司或组织创建的内容。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场规模由2015年的386亿元人民币增至2019年的2758亿元人民币，预期将进一步增至2025年的1.3万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为30.3%，高于整体在线内容市场增长。</blockquote></p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容社区市场拥有更多元化的变现渠道，包括在线广告、付费会员、内容电商、内容电商解决方案、直播虚拟礼品、在线游戏及在线教育服务。相比之下，美国在线内容社区的变现主要是通过广告。</blockquote></p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的一个主要积极因素是，越来越多的中国消费者愿意为更高质量的内容付费。预计2019年至2025年期间，中国在线内容社区的付费用户数量将以17.1%的复合年增长率增长，这意味着在线内容社区的额外付费用户将增加3.604亿至2025年的5.882亿。</blockquote></p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国在线内容市场</b></blockquote></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线内容市场较2015年增长两倍，2019年达到1.2万亿人民币。预计该市场将于2025年增至3.7万亿元人民币，2019年至2025年的复合年增长率为21.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2015年至2025年（估计）中国在线内容市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国在线内容社区的市场规模（按收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国付费会员市场规模（以收入计），2015年至2025年（估计）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内容商务解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><blockquote>为了提供整合营销服务，在线内容社区为内容创建、内容分发和内容转换提供内容商务解决方案。该公司提供综合内容商务解决方案，为商家和品牌的所有销售和营销需求提供一站式服务，从制定营销计划、促进内容创作、分配最相关的内容创作者，到向感兴趣的用户分发。中国内容商务解决方案市场预期将由2019年的人民币114亿元增长至2025年的人民币1123亿元，复合年增长率为46.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二零一五年至二零二五年（估计）中国内容商务解决方案市场规模（以收入计）</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}