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ahpeh

ahpeh

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2021-11-19

yeah!

Moderna Announces FDA Authorization of Booster Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for Adults 18 Years and Older<blockquote>Moderna宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种新冠疫苗加强剂量</blockquote>

2021-11-09

$Novavax(NVAX)$go go...more good news pls

2021-11-08

$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$steadily moving up. Holidays ahead :)

2021-11-08

$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$continue to run up pls

2021-11-05

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$goodness drop so much

2021-11-05

$Novavax(NVAX)$back down again [捂脸]

2021-11-02

$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$finally gg up abit

2021-08-27

$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$nicee...$1.13b project.https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/comfortdelgro-1-13-billion-contract-auckland-rail-services-new-zealand-2138806?cid=FBcna

2021-05-25

Niceeeee

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-13

Lol.. What shit.. Why did he even buy bitcoin in the first place.

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2021-05-08

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-05-08

Lol.. After he made tons

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2021-05-07

Please reply to my comment

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2021-05-06

Correction or crash?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-06

$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$ [流泪] [捂脸] gone case...

2021-05-04

$Netflix(NFLX)$ can only sit and watch it drop today... [流泪]

2021-05-03

$Silvergate Capital(SI)$ wondering when this will move again..

2021-05-01

Wow...

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-30

@comfortdelgro TTSH effect.. Hope the cluster will be contained

2021-04-29

Nice... Missed opportunity

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去老虎APP查看更多动态

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637327403,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138047553?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 21:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna Announces FDA Authorization of Booster Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for Adults 18 Years and Older<blockquote>Moderna宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种新冠疫苗加强剂量</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138047553","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Moderna stock surged 4% in premarket trading after announcing FDA authorization of booster dose of C","content":"<p>Moderna stock surged 4% in premarket trading&nbsp;after announcing FDA authorization of booster dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for adults 18 years and older.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种加强剂量的COVID-19疫苗后，Moderna股价在盘前交易中飙升4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8db683899273d344e819a53f4b3366b\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Moderna, Inc.&nbsp;today announced that theU.S. Food and Drug Administration(FDA) has extended the emergency use authorization of a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level to all adults aged 18 and older. This booster can be used in all individuals 18 years and older who have completed a primary vaccination with any other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna公司今天宣布，美国。美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)已将50µg剂量水平的Moderna COVID-19疫苗加强剂量的紧急使用授权扩大到所有18岁及以上的成年人。这种加强剂可用于所有18岁及以上已完成任何其他授权或批准的新冠肺炎疫苗初次接种的个人。</blockquote></p><p> “This emergency use authorization comes at a critical time as we enter the winter months and face increasing COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations across the country,” saidStéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer ofModerna. “We thank the FDA for their review, and are confident in the robust clinical evidence that a 50 µg booster dose of mRNA-1273 induces a strong immune response against COVID-19.”</p><p><blockquote>Moderna首席执行官Stéphane Bancel表示：“这项紧急使用授权是在我们进入冬季并面临全国范围内不断增加的COVID-19病例数和住院人数的关键时刻发布的。”“我们感谢FDA的审查，并对强有力的临床证据充满信心，即50µg加强剂量的mRNA-1273可诱导针对COVID-19的强烈免疫反应。”</blockquote></p><p> The booster dose is to be administered at least six months after completion of any primary series COVID-19 vaccination. OnOctober 20th, the FDAauthorizedfor emergency use a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level for people aged 65 and older as well as adults aged 18 to 64 who are at high risk of severe COVID-19; and people aged 18 to 64 with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The Moderna COVID-19 booster vaccine is authorized for adults ages 18 and above regardless of occupational risk factors in many international markets. This follows the earlier approval of the 100 µg mRNA 1273 third dose in immunocompromised individuals.</p><p><blockquote>加强剂量将在完成任何初级系列新冠肺炎疫苗接种后至少六个月进行。10月20日，FDA授权65岁及以上人群以及18至64岁严重COVID-19高风险成年人紧急使用50µg剂量水平的Moderna COVID-19疫苗加强剂量；以及经常在机构或职业上接触新型冠状病毒的18至64岁人群。在许多国际市场上，Moderna新冠肺炎加强疫苗被授权用于18岁及以上的成年人，无论职业风险因素如何。此前，100µg mRNA 1273第三剂在免疫功能低下个体中获得批准。</blockquote></p><p> The FDA based this EUA on the totality of scientific evidence shared by the company including a data analysis from the Phase 2 clinical study of mRNA-1273, which was amended to offer a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level to interested participants 6-8 months following their second dose (n=344). Neutralizing antibody titers had waned prior to boosting, particularly against variants of concern, at approximately 6 months. Notably, a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level boosted neutralizing titers significantly above the Phase 3 benchmark. The safety profile following the booster dose was similar to that observed previously for dose 2 of mRNA-1273.</p><p><blockquote>FDA根据该公司分享的全部科学证据制定了该EUA，包括mRNA-1273 2期临床研究的数据分析，该研究经过修订，以提供50µg剂量水平的mRNA-1273加强剂量。第二次给药后6-8个月感兴趣的参与者(n=344)。中和抗体滴度在加强之前减弱，特别是针对关注的变体，在大约6个月时。值得注意的是，50µg剂量水平的mRNA-1273加强剂量将中和滴度提高到显著高于3期基准。加强剂量后的安全性概况与先前针对mRNA-1273剂量2观察到的相似。</blockquote></p><p> As a next step, theU.S. Centers for Disease Controland Prevention’s (CDC)&nbsp;Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices(ACIP) will meet to discuss a potential recommendation for rollout of COVID-19 boosters to Americans.</p><p><blockquote>下一步，美国。美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）免疫实践咨询委员会（ACIP）将开会讨论向美国人推出新冠肺炎加强剂的潜在建议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna Announces FDA Authorization of Booster Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for Adults 18 Years and Older<blockquote>Moderna宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种新冠疫苗加强剂量</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna Announces FDA Authorization of Booster Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for Adults 18 Years and Older<blockquote>Moderna宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种新冠疫苗加强剂量</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-19 21:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Moderna stock surged 4% in premarket trading&nbsp;after announcing FDA authorization of booster dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for adults 18 years and older.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种加强剂量的COVID-19疫苗后，Moderna股价在盘前交易中飙升4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8db683899273d344e819a53f4b3366b\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Moderna, Inc.&nbsp;today announced that theU.S. Food and Drug Administration(FDA) has extended the emergency use authorization of a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level to all adults aged 18 and older. This booster can be used in all individuals 18 years and older who have completed a primary vaccination with any other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna公司今天宣布，美国。美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)已将50µg剂量水平的Moderna COVID-19疫苗加强剂量的紧急使用授权扩大到所有18岁及以上的成年人。这种加强剂可用于所有18岁及以上已完成任何其他授权或批准的新冠肺炎疫苗初次接种的个人。</blockquote></p><p> “This emergency use authorization comes at a critical time as we enter the winter months and face increasing COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations across the country,” saidStéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer ofModerna. “We thank the FDA for their review, and are confident in the robust clinical evidence that a 50 µg booster dose of mRNA-1273 induces a strong immune response against COVID-19.”</p><p><blockquote>Moderna首席执行官Stéphane Bancel表示：“这项紧急使用授权是在我们进入冬季并面临全国范围内不断增加的COVID-19病例数和住院人数的关键时刻发布的。”“我们感谢FDA的审查，并对强有力的临床证据充满信心，即50µg加强剂量的mRNA-1273可诱导针对COVID-19的强烈免疫反应。”</blockquote></p><p> The booster dose is to be administered at least six months after completion of any primary series COVID-19 vaccination. OnOctober 20th, the FDAauthorizedfor emergency use a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level for people aged 65 and older as well as adults aged 18 to 64 who are at high risk of severe COVID-19; and people aged 18 to 64 with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The Moderna COVID-19 booster vaccine is authorized for adults ages 18 and above regardless of occupational risk factors in many international markets. This follows the earlier approval of the 100 µg mRNA 1273 third dose in immunocompromised individuals.</p><p><blockquote>加强剂量将在完成任何初级系列新冠肺炎疫苗接种后至少六个月进行。10月20日，FDA授权65岁及以上人群以及18至64岁严重COVID-19高风险成年人紧急使用50µg剂量水平的Moderna COVID-19疫苗加强剂量；以及经常在机构或职业上接触新型冠状病毒的18至64岁人群。在许多国际市场上，Moderna新冠肺炎加强疫苗被授权用于18岁及以上的成年人，无论职业风险因素如何。此前，100µg mRNA 1273第三剂在免疫功能低下个体中获得批准。</blockquote></p><p> The FDA based this EUA on the totality of scientific evidence shared by the company including a data analysis from the Phase 2 clinical study of mRNA-1273, which was amended to offer a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level to interested participants 6-8 months following their second dose (n=344). Neutralizing antibody titers had waned prior to boosting, particularly against variants of concern, at approximately 6 months. Notably, a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level boosted neutralizing titers significantly above the Phase 3 benchmark. The safety profile following the booster dose was similar to that observed previously for dose 2 of mRNA-1273.</p><p><blockquote>FDA根据该公司分享的全部科学证据制定了该EUA，包括mRNA-1273 2期临床研究的数据分析，该研究经过修订，以提供50µg剂量水平的mRNA-1273加强剂量。第二次给药后6-8个月感兴趣的参与者(n=344)。中和抗体滴度在加强之前减弱，特别是针对关注的变体，在大约6个月时。值得注意的是，50µg剂量水平的mRNA-1273加强剂量将中和滴度提高到显著高于3期基准。加强剂量后的安全性概况与先前针对mRNA-1273剂量2观察到的相似。</blockquote></p><p> As a next step, theU.S. Centers for Disease Controland Prevention’s (CDC)&nbsp;Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices(ACIP) will meet to discuss a potential recommendation for rollout of COVID-19 boosters to Americans.</p><p><blockquote>下一步，美国。美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）免疫实践咨询委员会（ACIP）将开会讨论向美国人推出新冠肺炎加强剂的潜在建议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138047553","content_text":"Moderna stock surged 4% in premarket trading after announcing FDA authorization of booster dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for adults 18 years and older.\n\nModerna, Inc. today announced that theU.S. Food and Drug Administration(FDA) has extended the emergency use authorization of a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level to all adults aged 18 and older. This booster can be used in all individuals 18 years and older who have completed a primary vaccination with any other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccine.\n“This emergency use authorization comes at a critical time as we enter the winter months and face increasing COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations across the country,” saidStéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer ofModerna. “We thank the FDA for their review, and are confident in the robust clinical evidence that a 50 µg booster dose of mRNA-1273 induces a strong immune response against COVID-19.”\nThe booster dose is to be administered at least six months after completion of any primary series COVID-19 vaccination. OnOctober 20th, the FDAauthorizedfor emergency use a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level for people aged 65 and older as well as adults aged 18 to 64 who are at high risk of severe COVID-19; and people aged 18 to 64 with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The Moderna COVID-19 booster vaccine is authorized for adults ages 18 and above regardless of occupational risk factors in many international markets. This follows the earlier approval of the 100 µg mRNA 1273 third dose in immunocompromised individuals.\nThe FDA based this EUA on the totality of scientific evidence shared by the company including a data analysis from the Phase 2 clinical study of mRNA-1273, which was amended to offer a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level to interested participants 6-8 months following their second dose (n=344). Neutralizing antibody titers had waned prior to boosting, particularly against variants of concern, at approximately 6 months. Notably, a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level boosted neutralizing titers significantly above the Phase 3 benchmark. The safety profile following the booster dose was similar to that observed previously for dose 2 of mRNA-1273.\nAs a next step, theU.S. Centers for Disease Controland Prevention’s (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices(ACIP) will meet to discuss a potential recommendation for rollout of COVID-19 boosters to Americans.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847035387,"gmtCreate":1636467495242,"gmtModify":1636467784596,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$Novavax(NVAX)$</a>go go...more good news pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$Novavax(NVAX)$</a>go go...more good news pls","text":"$Novavax(NVAX)$go go...more good news pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81d5981107b84ad33e88ff1ad8681ce2","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847035387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845536633,"gmtCreate":1636349224058,"gmtModify":1636349224508,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>steadily moving up. Holidays ahead :)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>steadily moving up. Holidays ahead :)","text":"$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$steadily moving up. Holidays ahead :)","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae1c1d9c4e91f1402303ff820460210","width":"1080","height":"3511"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845536633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845536080,"gmtCreate":1636349169246,"gmtModify":1636349169805,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>continue to run up pls","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIY.SI\">$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$</a>continue to run up pls","text":"$IFAST CORPORATION LTD.(AIY.SI)$continue to run up pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b1e51931e093b64e13b1102353c593","width":"1080","height":"3511"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845536080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842000744,"gmtCreate":1636118942525,"gmtModify":1636119493542,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>goodness drop so much","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>goodness drop so much","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$goodness drop so much","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88de9d072d4f5999d4e58ffbd8bef2e7","width":"1080","height":"3610"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842000744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846774620,"gmtCreate":1636118788279,"gmtModify":1636119019762,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$Novavax(NVAX)$</a>back down again&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$Novavax(NVAX)$</a>back down again&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$Novavax(NVAX)$back down again [捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efba8326693d981d021472db6b879d00","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846774620","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843447001,"gmtCreate":1635854485550,"gmtModify":1635854485703,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>finally gg up abit","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>finally gg up abit","text":"$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$finally gg up abit","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5f9b85875863199c6c9e34baab9783e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843447001","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":819319271,"gmtCreate":1630033391693,"gmtModify":1704954928257,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>nicee...$1.13b project.https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/comfortdelgro-1-13-billion-contract-auckland-rail-services-new-zealand-2138806?cid=FBcna","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>nicee...$1.13b project.https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/comfortdelgro-1-13-billion-contract-auckland-rail-services-new-zealand-2138806?cid=FBcna","text":"$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$nicee...$1.13b project.https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/comfortdelgro-1-13-billion-contract-auckland-rail-services-new-zealand-2138806?cid=FBcna","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819319271","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138276232,"gmtCreate":1621946927926,"gmtModify":1634185269281,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niceeeee","listText":"Niceeeee","text":"Niceeeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138276232","repostId":"1196961143","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191117580,"gmtCreate":1620864027940,"gmtModify":1634195825152,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol.. What shit.. Why did he even buy bitcoin in the first place.&nbsp;","listText":"Lol.. What shit.. Why did he even buy bitcoin in the first place.&nbsp;","text":"Lol.. What shit.. Why did he even buy bitcoin in the first place.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191117580","repostId":"1123539919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107676122,"gmtCreate":1620489249366,"gmtModify":1634198436046,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107676122","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122089368?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于流通中的所有美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与一些隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于流通中的所有美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与一些隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104463725,"gmtCreate":1620403910167,"gmtModify":1634205455822,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol.. After he made tons","listText":"Lol.. After he made tons","text":"Lol.. After he made tons","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104463725","repostId":"1185474113","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105482909,"gmtCreate":1620316926501,"gmtModify":1634206111074,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please reply to my comment","listText":"Please reply to my comment","text":"Please reply to my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105482909","repostId":"2133387578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105433234,"gmtCreate":1620314994928,"gmtModify":1634206124801,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correction or crash?&nbsp;","listText":"Correction or crash?&nbsp;","text":"Correction or crash?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105433234","repostId":"2133387578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102488360,"gmtCreate":1620230803050,"gmtModify":1631886789613,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;gone case...","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;gone case...","text":"$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$ [流泪] [捂脸] gone case...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102488360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106791533,"gmtCreate":1620143419522,"gmtModify":1631886136744,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a>&nbsp;can only sit and watch it drop today...&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix(NFLX)$</a>&nbsp;can only sit and watch it drop today...&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$Netflix(NFLX)$ can only sit and watch it drop today... [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106791533","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":108556098,"gmtCreate":1620044525814,"gmtModify":1631889062597,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">$Silvergate Capital(SI)$</a>&nbsp;wondering when this will move again..&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">$Silvergate Capital(SI)$</a>&nbsp;wondering when this will move again..&nbsp;","text":"$Silvergate Capital(SI)$ wondering when this will move again..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108556098","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101834951,"gmtCreate":1619874994573,"gmtModify":1634209361687,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow...","listText":"Wow...","text":"Wow...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101834951","repostId":"1142063705","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103974208,"gmtCreate":1619745701104,"gmtModify":1631884328459,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"@comfortdelgro TTSH effect.. Hope the cluster will be contained","listText":"@comfortdelgro TTSH effect.. Hope the cluster will be contained","text":"@comfortdelgro TTSH effect.. Hope the cluster will be contained","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103974208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109100779,"gmtCreate":1619669692291,"gmtModify":1634210848316,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice... Missed opportunity","listText":"Nice... Missed opportunity","text":"Nice... Missed opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109100779","repostId":"1132578048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":345161113,"gmtCreate":1618288565332,"gmtModify":1634293920942,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Look out for grab ipo!&nbsp;Https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/ipo/grab-attracts-backing-t-rowe-temasek-record-spac-deal","listText":"Look out for grab ipo!&nbsp;Https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/ipo/grab-attracts-backing-t-rowe-temasek-record-spac-deal","text":"Look out for grab ipo! Https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/ipo/grab-attracts-backing-t-rowe-temasek-record-spac-deal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345161113","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379369539,"gmtCreate":1618677029821,"gmtModify":1634291448399,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls! Thank u!&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls! Thank u!&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls! Thank u!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379369539","repostId":"1159260950","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103974208,"gmtCreate":1619745701104,"gmtModify":1631884328459,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"@comfortdelgro TTSH effect.. Hope the cluster will be contained","listText":"@comfortdelgro TTSH effect.. Hope the cluster will be contained","text":"@comfortdelgro TTSH effect.. Hope the cluster will be contained","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103974208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346976928,"gmtCreate":1617984521464,"gmtModify":1634295360166,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment! Thanks in advance :)&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment! Thanks in advance :)&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment! Thanks in advance :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346976928","repostId":"1168300924","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168300924","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617955250,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168300924?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Next Week’s IPO Lineup Is Growing. It Could Be Busy.<blockquote>下周IPO阵容不断壮大。可能会很忙。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168300924","media":"barrons","summary":"The second week of April is shaping up to be a relatively strong time for the IPO market. As many as four more companies are making their stock-market debuts, bringing the total to at least six.Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange,is slated to open for trading on Wednesday, April 14. Applovin and TuSimple are listing the next day, three people familiar with the situation said. Agilon Health ismaking its debut that Thursday.And Alkami Technology,a bank software company, and Karat Pa","content":"<p>The second week of April is shaping up to be a relatively strong time for the IPO market. As many as four more companies are making their stock-market debuts, bringing the total to at least six.</p><p><blockquote>4月的第二周将成为IPO市场相对强劲的时期。又有多达四家公司在股市首次亮相，使总数至少达到六家。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange,is slated to open for trading on Wednesday, April 14. Applovin and TuSimple are listing the next day, three people familiar with the situation said. Agilon Health ismaking its debut that Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的加密货币交易所Coinbase定于4月14日星期三开业交易。三位知情人士表示，Applovin和图森未来将于第二天上市。Agilon Health将于周四首次亮相。</blockquote></p><p>And Alkami Technology,a bank software company, and Karat Packaging, whichmakes environmentally-friendly disposable food service products, are also reportedly going public.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，银行软件公司Alkami Technology和生产环保一次性食品服务产品的Karat Packaging也将上市。</blockquote></p><p>This week, by way of contrast, two companies, Reneo Pharmaceuticals and VectivBio Holding, are listing. Both are small biotech companies that areslated to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，本周有两家公司Reneo Pharmaceuticals和VectivBio Holding上市。这两家公司都是小型生物技术公司，预计将于周五在纳斯达克开始交易。</blockquote></p><p>Applovin on Wednesday set terms for its initial public offering. It is offering 25 million shares at $75 to $85 each, which means it could raise as much as $2.13 billion if the stock sells at the high end of that range. The company plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol APP.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin周三设定了首次公开募股的条款。该公司将以每股75至85美元的价格发行2500万股股票，这意味着如果该股票以该区间的高端出售，它可以筹集高达21.3亿美元的资金。该公司计划在纳斯达克以APP为代码进行交易。</blockquote></p><p>Eighteen underwriters are listed in the Applovin prospectus, includingMorgan Stanley(ticker: MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM),KKR,&nbsp;Bank of America‘s (BAC) BofA Securities, andCitigroup(C).</p><p><blockquote>Applovin招股说明书中列出了18家承销商，包括摩根士丹利（股票代码：MS）、摩根大通(JPM)、KKR、美国银行(BAC)美银证券和花旗集团(C)。</blockquote></p><p>Founded in 2012, Applovin&nbsp;provides software&nbsp;used by mobile-game developers to grow their businesses.&nbsp; Some 410 million people a day open apps that contain Applovin software, according to the company. Applovin also has a portfolio of more than 200 free-to-play mobile games with 32 million daily users.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin成立于2012年，提供手机游戏开发商用来发展业务的软件。据该公司称，每天约有4.1亿人打开包含Applovin软件的应用程序。Applovin还拥有200多款免费手机游戏，日用户达3200万。</blockquote></p><p>In 2018, KKRbought a minority stakein Applovin for $400 million, valuing Applovin at $2 billion at the time. Applovin in February acquired Adjust, a firm that helps mobile-app developers measure the performance of apps and prevent fraud, for $1 billion. KKR will own 67.4% of the company after the IPO, theprospectus said.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，KKR以4亿美元收购了Applovin的少数股权，当时Applovin的估值为20亿美元。Applovin今年2月以10亿美元收购了Adjust，这是一家帮助移动应用开发者衡量应用性能和防止欺诈的公司。招股说明书称，IPO后KKR将拥有该公司67.4%的股份。</blockquote></p><p>With 357,955,309 shares outstanding, Applovin’s market capitalization could hit $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin的流通股为357,955,309股，市值可能达到300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple also set terms for its IPO. The self-driving technology company could raise as much as $1.3 billion; it is offering nearly 34 million shares at $35 to $39 each. It will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker TSP.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来还设定了IPO条款。这家自动驾驶技术公司可能筹集高达13亿美元的资金；该公司以每股35至39美元的价格发行近3400万股股票。它将在纳斯达克交易，股票代码为TSP。</blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley(MS),Citigroup,and J.P. Morgan (JPM) are lead bookrunners on the deal.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（MS）、花旗集团和摩根大通（JPM）是该交易的牵头账簿管理人。</blockquote></p><p>Founded in 2015, TuSimple is looking to transform the $800 billion trucking industry. The San Diego company, which has plants in Tucson, Shanghai, and Beijing, in addition to operations in Japan, is developing an autonomous freight network for long-haul, semi-trucks that it says will increase efficiency and safety on the road, while cutting operating costs.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来成立于2015年，旨在改变价值8000亿美元的卡车运输业。这家圣地亚哥公司除了在日本开展业务外，还在图森、上海和北京设有工厂，正在为长途半挂卡车开发自动货运网络，据称这将提高道路效率和安全性，同时削减运营成本。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple develops software for the Level 4 self-driving, long-haul trucks, which can see up to 1,000 meters away, equivalent to 30 seconds of driving time. High-definition maps provide accuracy within five centimeters.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来为4级自动驾驶长途卡车开发软件，可以看到1000米以外的地方，相当于30秒的驾驶时间。高清地图提供了五厘米以内的精度。</blockquote></p><p>The company is partnering withNavistar(NAV) to develop trucks for the North American market by 2024,its prospectus said. TuSimple has another partnership withVolkswagensubsidiary TRATON for trucks in Europe. Navistar, TRATON, and United Parcel Service (UPS) are all investors.</p><p><blockquote>招股说明书称，该公司正在与Navistar(NAV)合作，到2024年为北美市场开发卡车。图森未来与大众汽车子公司TRATON在欧洲建立了卡车合作伙伴关系。Navistar、TRATON和联合包裹服务公司(UPS)都是投资者。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple has raised $800 million in funding, including a $350 million round in November led by VectoIQ.BlackRock(BR), Fidelity Management &amp; Research Co and Capital Group are in talks to buy up to 10.1 million TuSimple shares at the IPO price, the prospectus said.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来已筹集8亿美元资金，其中包括11月份由VectoIQ领投的3.5亿美元融资。招股说明书称，贝莱德(BR)、富达管理与研究公司和资本集团正在洽谈以IPO价格购买最多1010万股图森未来股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company will have 212,263,328 shares outstanding, meaning TuSimple’s market cap could climb to $8.3 billion. TuSimple, however, is not profitable. Losses widened to $177.9 million in 2020 from $84.9 million in 2019. Revenue jumped nearly 160% to $1.8 million in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将拥有212,263,328股已发行股票，这意味着图森未来的市值可能攀升至83亿美元。然而，图森未来并未盈利。亏损从2019年的8490万美元扩大至2020年的1.779亿美元。2020年收入增长近160%至180万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next Week’s IPO Lineup Is Growing. It Could Be Busy.<blockquote>下周IPO阵容不断壮大。可能会很忙。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext Week’s IPO Lineup Is Growing. It Could Be Busy.<blockquote>下周IPO阵容不断壮大。可能会很忙。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-09 16:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The second week of April is shaping up to be a relatively strong time for the IPO market. As many as four more companies are making their stock-market debuts, bringing the total to at least six.</p><p><blockquote>4月的第二周将成为IPO市场相对强劲的时期。又有多达四家公司在股市首次亮相，使总数至少达到六家。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange,is slated to open for trading on Wednesday, April 14. Applovin and TuSimple are listing the next day, three people familiar with the situation said. Agilon Health ismaking its debut that Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的加密货币交易所Coinbase定于4月14日星期三开业交易。三位知情人士表示，Applovin和图森未来将于第二天上市。Agilon Health将于周四首次亮相。</blockquote></p><p>And Alkami Technology,a bank software company, and Karat Packaging, whichmakes environmentally-friendly disposable food service products, are also reportedly going public.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，银行软件公司Alkami Technology和生产环保一次性食品服务产品的Karat Packaging也将上市。</blockquote></p><p>This week, by way of contrast, two companies, Reneo Pharmaceuticals and VectivBio Holding, are listing. Both are small biotech companies that areslated to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，本周有两家公司Reneo Pharmaceuticals和VectivBio Holding上市。这两家公司都是小型生物技术公司，预计将于周五在纳斯达克开始交易。</blockquote></p><p>Applovin on Wednesday set terms for its initial public offering. It is offering 25 million shares at $75 to $85 each, which means it could raise as much as $2.13 billion if the stock sells at the high end of that range. The company plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol APP.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin周三设定了首次公开募股的条款。该公司将以每股75至85美元的价格发行2500万股股票，这意味着如果该股票以该区间的高端出售，它可以筹集高达21.3亿美元的资金。该公司计划在纳斯达克以APP为代码进行交易。</blockquote></p><p>Eighteen underwriters are listed in the Applovin prospectus, includingMorgan Stanley(ticker: MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM),KKR,&nbsp;Bank of America‘s (BAC) BofA Securities, andCitigroup(C).</p><p><blockquote>Applovin招股说明书中列出了18家承销商，包括摩根士丹利（股票代码：MS）、摩根大通(JPM)、KKR、美国银行(BAC)美银证券和花旗集团(C)。</blockquote></p><p>Founded in 2012, Applovin&nbsp;provides software&nbsp;used by mobile-game developers to grow their businesses.&nbsp; Some 410 million people a day open apps that contain Applovin software, according to the company. Applovin also has a portfolio of more than 200 free-to-play mobile games with 32 million daily users.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin成立于2012年，提供手机游戏开发商用来发展业务的软件。据该公司称，每天约有4.1亿人打开包含Applovin软件的应用程序。Applovin还拥有200多款免费手机游戏，日用户达3200万。</blockquote></p><p>In 2018, KKRbought a minority stakein Applovin for $400 million, valuing Applovin at $2 billion at the time. Applovin in February acquired Adjust, a firm that helps mobile-app developers measure the performance of apps and prevent fraud, for $1 billion. KKR will own 67.4% of the company after the IPO, theprospectus said.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，KKR以4亿美元收购了Applovin的少数股权，当时Applovin的估值为20亿美元。Applovin今年2月以10亿美元收购了Adjust，这是一家帮助移动应用开发者衡量应用性能和防止欺诈的公司。招股说明书称，IPO后KKR将拥有该公司67.4%的股份。</blockquote></p><p>With 357,955,309 shares outstanding, Applovin’s market capitalization could hit $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin的流通股为357,955,309股，市值可能达到300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple also set terms for its IPO. The self-driving technology company could raise as much as $1.3 billion; it is offering nearly 34 million shares at $35 to $39 each. It will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker TSP.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来还设定了IPO条款。这家自动驾驶技术公司可能筹集高达13亿美元的资金；该公司以每股35至39美元的价格发行近3400万股股票。它将在纳斯达克交易，股票代码为TSP。</blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley(MS),Citigroup,and J.P. Morgan (JPM) are lead bookrunners on the deal.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（MS）、花旗集团和摩根大通（JPM）是该交易的牵头账簿管理人。</blockquote></p><p>Founded in 2015, TuSimple is looking to transform the $800 billion trucking industry. The San Diego company, which has plants in Tucson, Shanghai, and Beijing, in addition to operations in Japan, is developing an autonomous freight network for long-haul, semi-trucks that it says will increase efficiency and safety on the road, while cutting operating costs.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来成立于2015年，旨在改变价值8000亿美元的卡车运输业。这家圣地亚哥公司除了在日本开展业务外，还在图森、上海和北京设有工厂，正在为长途半挂卡车开发自动货运网络，据称这将提高道路效率和安全性，同时削减运营成本。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple develops software for the Level 4 self-driving, long-haul trucks, which can see up to 1,000 meters away, equivalent to 30 seconds of driving time. High-definition maps provide accuracy within five centimeters.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来为4级自动驾驶长途卡车开发软件，可以看到1000米以外的地方，相当于30秒的驾驶时间。高清地图提供了五厘米以内的精度。</blockquote></p><p>The company is partnering withNavistar(NAV) to develop trucks for the North American market by 2024,its prospectus said. TuSimple has another partnership withVolkswagensubsidiary TRATON for trucks in Europe. Navistar, TRATON, and United Parcel Service (UPS) are all investors.</p><p><blockquote>招股说明书称，该公司正在与Navistar(NAV)合作，到2024年为北美市场开发卡车。图森未来与大众汽车子公司TRATON在欧洲建立了卡车合作伙伴关系。Navistar、TRATON和联合包裹服务公司(UPS)都是投资者。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple has raised $800 million in funding, including a $350 million round in November led by VectoIQ.BlackRock(BR), Fidelity Management &amp; Research Co and Capital Group are in talks to buy up to 10.1 million TuSimple shares at the IPO price, the prospectus said.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来已筹集8亿美元资金，其中包括11月份由VectoIQ领投的3.5亿美元融资。招股说明书称，贝莱德(BR)、富达管理与研究公司和资本集团正在洽谈以IPO价格购买最多1010万股图森未来股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company will have 212,263,328 shares outstanding, meaning TuSimple’s market cap could climb to $8.3 billion. TuSimple, however, is not profitable. Losses widened to $177.9 million in 2020 from $84.9 million in 2019. Revenue jumped nearly 160% to $1.8 million in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将拥有212,263,328股已发行股票，这意味着图森未来的市值可能攀升至83亿美元。然而，图森未来并未盈利。亏损从2019年的8490万美元扩大至2020年的1.779亿美元。2020年收入增长近160%至180万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/next-weeks-ipo-lineup-is-growing-it-could-be-busy-51617907448?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KRT":"Karat Packaging Inc.","ALKT":"Alkami Technology, Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","APP":"AppLovin Corporation"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/next-weeks-ipo-lineup-is-growing-it-could-be-busy-51617907448?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168300924","content_text":"The second week of April is shaping up to be a relatively strong time for the IPO market. As many as four more companies are making their stock-market debuts, bringing the total to at least six.Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange,is slated to open for trading on Wednesday, April 14. Applovin and TuSimple are listing the next day, three people familiar with the situation said. Agilon Health ismaking its debut that Thursday.And Alkami Technology,a bank software company, and Karat Packaging, whichmakes environmentally-friendly disposable food service products, are also reportedly going public.This week, by way of contrast, two companies, Reneo Pharmaceuticals and VectivBio Holding, are listing. Both are small biotech companies that areslated to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday.Applovin on Wednesday set terms for its initial public offering. It is offering 25 million shares at $75 to $85 each, which means it could raise as much as $2.13 billion if the stock sells at the high end of that range. The company plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol APP.Eighteen underwriters are listed in the Applovin prospectus, includingMorgan Stanley(ticker: MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM),KKR, Bank of America‘s (BAC) BofA Securities, andCitigroup(C).Founded in 2012, Applovin provides software used by mobile-game developers to grow their businesses.  Some 410 million people a day open apps that contain Applovin software, according to the company. Applovin also has a portfolio of more than 200 free-to-play mobile games with 32 million daily users.In 2018, KKRbought a minority stakein Applovin for $400 million, valuing Applovin at $2 billion at the time. Applovin in February acquired Adjust, a firm that helps mobile-app developers measure the performance of apps and prevent fraud, for $1 billion. KKR will own 67.4% of the company after the IPO, theprospectus said.With 357,955,309 shares outstanding, Applovin’s market capitalization could hit $30 billion.TuSimple also set terms for its IPO. The self-driving technology company could raise as much as $1.3 billion; it is offering nearly 34 million shares at $35 to $39 each. It will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker TSP.Morgan Stanley(MS),Citigroup,and J.P. Morgan (JPM) are lead bookrunners on the deal.Founded in 2015, TuSimple is looking to transform the $800 billion trucking industry. The San Diego company, which has plants in Tucson, Shanghai, and Beijing, in addition to operations in Japan, is developing an autonomous freight network for long-haul, semi-trucks that it says will increase efficiency and safety on the road, while cutting operating costs.TuSimple develops software for the Level 4 self-driving, long-haul trucks, which can see up to 1,000 meters away, equivalent to 30 seconds of driving time. High-definition maps provide accuracy within five centimeters.The company is partnering withNavistar(NAV) to develop trucks for the North American market by 2024,its prospectus said. TuSimple has another partnership withVolkswagensubsidiary TRATON for trucks in Europe. Navistar, TRATON, and United Parcel Service (UPS) are all investors.TuSimple has raised $800 million in funding, including a $350 million round in November led by VectoIQ.BlackRock(BR), Fidelity Management & Research Co and Capital Group are in talks to buy up to 10.1 million TuSimple shares at the IPO price, the prospectus said.The company will have 212,263,328 shares outstanding, meaning TuSimple’s market cap could climb to $8.3 billion. TuSimple, however, is not profitable. Losses widened to $177.9 million in 2020 from $84.9 million in 2019. Revenue jumped nearly 160% to $1.8 million in 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSP":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"APP":0.9,"RPHM":0.9,"ALKT":0.9,"KRT":0.9,"VECT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348744786,"gmtCreate":1617968481345,"gmtModify":1634295471396,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wahhh","listText":"Wahhh","text":"Wahhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348744786","repostId":"2125577903","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191117580,"gmtCreate":1620864027940,"gmtModify":1634195825152,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol.. What shit.. Why did he even buy bitcoin in the first place.&nbsp;","listText":"Lol.. What shit.. Why did he even buy bitcoin in the first place.&nbsp;","text":"Lol.. What shit.. Why did he even buy bitcoin in the first place.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191117580","repostId":"1123539919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105482909,"gmtCreate":1620316926501,"gmtModify":1634206111074,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please reply to my comment","listText":"Please reply to my comment","text":"Please reply to my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105482909","repostId":"2133387578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370256532,"gmtCreate":1618589506526,"gmtModify":1634291873415,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like my comment!&nbsp;","listText":"Please like my comment!&nbsp;","text":"Please like my comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370256532","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341890084,"gmtCreate":1617800314848,"gmtModify":1634296448375,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment :) thanks!!!&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment :) thanks!!!&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment :) thanks!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341890084","repostId":"1130533248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130533248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617799885,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130533248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-07 20:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The GameStop Frenzy Appears to be Over. What Retail Investors Are Buying Instead.<blockquote>游戏驿站的狂热似乎已经结束。散户投资者正在购买什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130533248","media":"Barrons","summary":"The much-vaunted stimulus-driven boom in stock trading is turning out to be something of a bust.\nWit","content":"<p>The much-vaunted stimulus-driven boom in stock trading is turning out to be something of a bust.</p><p><blockquote>被大肆吹嘘的刺激措施推动的股票交易繁荣被证明是一场萧条。</blockquote></p><p> With the major averages steadily setting records, individual investors still appear to be pouring money into equities. But it appears they’re now investing in traditional mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. At the same time, they have slowed their previous manic buying of single stocks that sent once-obscure names such as GameStop (ticker: GME) soaring earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>随着主要股指稳步创下纪录，个人投资者似乎仍在向股市投入资金。但他们现在似乎正在投资传统的共同基金和交易所交易基金。与此同时，他们放缓了之前对单一股票的疯狂购买，这些股票导致游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）等曾经默默无闻的股票在今年早些时候飙升。</blockquote></p><p> According to a new report from J.P. Morgan’s global market strategy team, some of the most recent federal stimulus checks might have been deployed into funds rather than into individual stocks or options, as had been the case for much of the past year. Individual investors appear to be reverting to their pre-pandemic practice of buying funds.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通全球市场策略团队的一份新报告，最近的一些联邦刺激支票可能被部署到基金中，而不是像过去一年大部分时间的情况那样部署到个股或期权中。个人投资者似乎正在恢复大流行前购买基金的做法。</blockquote></p><p> A month ago, this column&nbsp;highlighted research&nbsp;from&nbsp;Deutsche Bankthat found younger recipients of the $1,400 payments from Uncle Sam planned to put as much as half of the checks into stocks. The&nbsp;New York Times&nbsp;noted the same datamore than two weeks later, which, as it turns out, was just after individual investors’ trading activity appeared to peak, according to the J.P. Morgan report lead-authored by Nikolaos Panigirtzgolou.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，本专栏重点介绍了德意志银行的研究，该研究发现，收到山姆大叔1,400美元付款的年轻接受者计划将多达一半的支票投资于股票。根据尼古拉斯·帕尼吉尔茨戈卢(Nikolaos Panigirtzgolou)牵头撰写的摩根大通报告，两周多后，《纽约时报》也注意到了同样的数据，事实证明，就在个人投资者的交易活动似乎达到顶峰之后。</blockquote></p><p> While fund buying has been strong,small trades in call options(10 contracts or less) have fallen off sharply from their peak in January, according to Options Clearing data cited by the bank. At the same time, a basket of stocks favored on retail trading platforms such as Robinhood has been moving sideways overall while theS&amp;P 500has continued to rise to records.</p><p><blockquote>根据该行援引的期权清算数据，尽管基金买盘强劲，但看涨期权期权的小额交易（10份或更少）已从1月份的峰值大幅下降。与此同时，Robinhood等零售交易平台青睐的一篮子股票整体横盘整理，而标准普尔500指数则继续上涨至创纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, retail flows into U.S. equities and exchange-traded funds have fallen to a five-day average of $380 million, based on estimates from J.P. Morgan’s global quantitative and derivatives strategy team. That’s down from the peak of $670 million a day in the five days ended March 16, but still above the 12-month daily average of $250 million.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据摩根大通全球量化和衍生品策略团队的估计，流入美国股票和交易所交易基金的散户资金已降至五天平均3.8亿美元。这低于截至3月16日的五天内每天6.7亿美元的峰值，但仍高于12个月的日均2.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This marks a switch back to individuals’ preference to their pre-pandemic buying of traditional equity funds from single stocks and options. Stock ETFs drew $199 billion in the first quarter, compared with $231.8 billion for all of 2020, according toMorningstar.</p><p><blockquote>这标志着个人对大流行前购买传统股票基金的偏好从单一股票和期权转向。根据晨星公司的数据，股票ETF在第一季度筹集了1,990亿美元，而2020年全年为2,318亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Why the switch back from stocks to funds? Here are a few guesses. Americans are getting back to work, as evidenced by the 916,000 jump in nonfarm payrolls in March reported last week. That would leave people with less time to play the market but still wanting to invest via ETFs. Or maybe some of them got caught up in their brackets for NCAA basketball March Madness. Or perhaps some saw their previous gains slip away as the favorite meme stocks rolled over.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要从股票转回基金？这里有一些猜测。美国人正在重返工作岗位，上周报告的3月份非农就业人数增加916,000人就证明了这一点。这将使人们参与市场的时间减少，但仍希望通过ETF进行投资。或者也许他们中的一些人陷入了NCAA篮球疯狂三月的行列。或者，随着最受欢迎的模因股票的滚动，一些人可能看到他们之前的涨幅消失了。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever avenue they took, U.S. investors are fully invested in the stock market based on several other indicators cited by the bank. Equity holdings of hybrid mutual funds have rebounded to over 60%, in line with highs at previous market peaks in 2018, 2007, and 2000. U.S. households’ equity allocations of their financial assets are also at a record, according to the latest Federal Reserve data, topping the 2000 dot-com era peak. Meanwhile, net margin debt also is elevated by historical standards.</p><p><blockquote>无论采取何种途径，根据该行引用的其他几项指标，美国投资者都会全力投资股市。混合型共同基金的股票持有量已反弹至60%以上，与2018年、2007年和2000年之前市场峰值的高点一致。根据美联储的最新数据，美国家庭对金融资产的股票配置也创历史新高，超过了2000年互联网时代的峰值。与此同时，按照历史标准，净利润率债务也有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Taking into account those three factors, “there appears clear evidence of elevated equity positioning by retail investors and thus a vulnerability for the equity market going forward,” the report said. When the public is all-in, that’s a signal for contrarians to take some chips off the table.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，考虑到这三个因素，“有明确的证据表明散户投资者的股票仓位增加，因此股市未来存在脆弱性”。当公众全押时，这是逆向投资者拿走一些筹码的信号。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The GameStop Frenzy Appears to be Over. What Retail Investors Are Buying Instead.<blockquote>游戏驿站的狂热似乎已经结束。散户投资者正在购买什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe GameStop Frenzy Appears to be Over. What Retail Investors Are Buying Instead.<blockquote>游戏驿站的狂热似乎已经结束。散户投资者正在购买什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-07 20:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The much-vaunted stimulus-driven boom in stock trading is turning out to be something of a bust.</p><p><blockquote>被大肆吹嘘的刺激措施推动的股票交易繁荣被证明是一场萧条。</blockquote></p><p> With the major averages steadily setting records, individual investors still appear to be pouring money into equities. But it appears they’re now investing in traditional mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. At the same time, they have slowed their previous manic buying of single stocks that sent once-obscure names such as GameStop (ticker: GME) soaring earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>随着主要股指稳步创下纪录，个人投资者似乎仍在向股市投入资金。但他们现在似乎正在投资传统的共同基金和交易所交易基金。与此同时，他们放缓了之前对单一股票的疯狂购买，这些股票导致游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）等曾经默默无闻的股票在今年早些时候飙升。</blockquote></p><p> According to a new report from J.P. Morgan’s global market strategy team, some of the most recent federal stimulus checks might have been deployed into funds rather than into individual stocks or options, as had been the case for much of the past year. Individual investors appear to be reverting to their pre-pandemic practice of buying funds.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通全球市场策略团队的一份新报告，最近的一些联邦刺激支票可能被部署到基金中，而不是像过去一年大部分时间的情况那样部署到个股或期权中。个人投资者似乎正在恢复大流行前购买基金的做法。</blockquote></p><p> A month ago, this column&nbsp;highlighted research&nbsp;from&nbsp;Deutsche Bankthat found younger recipients of the $1,400 payments from Uncle Sam planned to put as much as half of the checks into stocks. The&nbsp;New York Times&nbsp;noted the same datamore than two weeks later, which, as it turns out, was just after individual investors’ trading activity appeared to peak, according to the J.P. Morgan report lead-authored by Nikolaos Panigirtzgolou.</p><p><blockquote>一个月前，本专栏重点介绍了德意志银行的研究，该研究发现，收到山姆大叔1,400美元付款的年轻接受者计划将多达一半的支票投资于股票。根据尼古拉斯·帕尼吉尔茨戈卢(Nikolaos Panigirtzgolou)牵头撰写的摩根大通报告，两周多后，《纽约时报》也注意到了同样的数据，事实证明，就在个人投资者的交易活动似乎达到顶峰之后。</blockquote></p><p> While fund buying has been strong,small trades in call options(10 contracts or less) have fallen off sharply from their peak in January, according to Options Clearing data cited by the bank. At the same time, a basket of stocks favored on retail trading platforms such as Robinhood has been moving sideways overall while theS&amp;P 500has continued to rise to records.</p><p><blockquote>根据该行援引的期权清算数据，尽管基金买盘强劲，但看涨期权期权的小额交易（10份或更少）已从1月份的峰值大幅下降。与此同时，Robinhood等零售交易平台青睐的一篮子股票整体横盘整理，而标准普尔500指数则继续上涨至创纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, retail flows into U.S. equities and exchange-traded funds have fallen to a five-day average of $380 million, based on estimates from J.P. Morgan’s global quantitative and derivatives strategy team. That’s down from the peak of $670 million a day in the five days ended March 16, but still above the 12-month daily average of $250 million.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据摩根大通全球量化和衍生品策略团队的估计，流入美国股票和交易所交易基金的散户资金已降至五天平均3.8亿美元。这低于截至3月16日的五天内每天6.7亿美元的峰值，但仍高于12个月的日均2.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This marks a switch back to individuals’ preference to their pre-pandemic buying of traditional equity funds from single stocks and options. Stock ETFs drew $199 billion in the first quarter, compared with $231.8 billion for all of 2020, according toMorningstar.</p><p><blockquote>这标志着个人对大流行前购买传统股票基金的偏好从单一股票和期权转向。根据晨星公司的数据，股票ETF在第一季度筹集了1,990亿美元，而2020年全年为2,318亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Why the switch back from stocks to funds? Here are a few guesses. Americans are getting back to work, as evidenced by the 916,000 jump in nonfarm payrolls in March reported last week. That would leave people with less time to play the market but still wanting to invest via ETFs. Or maybe some of them got caught up in their brackets for NCAA basketball March Madness. Or perhaps some saw their previous gains slip away as the favorite meme stocks rolled over.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要从股票转回基金？这里有一些猜测。美国人正在重返工作岗位，上周报告的3月份非农就业人数增加916,000人就证明了这一点。这将使人们参与市场的时间减少，但仍希望通过ETF进行投资。或者也许他们中的一些人陷入了NCAA篮球疯狂三月的行列。或者，随着最受欢迎的模因股票的滚动，一些人可能看到他们之前的涨幅消失了。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever avenue they took, U.S. investors are fully invested in the stock market based on several other indicators cited by the bank. Equity holdings of hybrid mutual funds have rebounded to over 60%, in line with highs at previous market peaks in 2018, 2007, and 2000. U.S. households’ equity allocations of their financial assets are also at a record, according to the latest Federal Reserve data, topping the 2000 dot-com era peak. Meanwhile, net margin debt also is elevated by historical standards.</p><p><blockquote>无论采取何种途径，根据该行引用的其他几项指标，美国投资者都会全力投资股市。混合型共同基金的股票持有量已反弹至60%以上，与2018年、2007年和2000年之前市场峰值的高点一致。根据美联储的最新数据，美国家庭对金融资产的股票配置也创历史新高，超过了2000年互联网时代的峰值。与此同时，按照历史标准，净利润率债务也有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Taking into account those three factors, “there appears clear evidence of elevated equity positioning by retail investors and thus a vulnerability for the equity market going forward,” the report said. When the public is all-in, that’s a signal for contrarians to take some chips off the table.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，考虑到这三个因素，“有明确的证据表明散户投资者的股票仓位增加，因此股市未来存在脆弱性”。当公众全押时，这是逆向投资者拿走一些筹码的信号。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-gamestop-frenzy-appears-to-be-over-what-retail-investors-are-buying-instead-51617797462?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-gamestop-frenzy-appears-to-be-over-what-retail-investors-are-buying-instead-51617797462?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130533248","content_text":"The much-vaunted stimulus-driven boom in stock trading is turning out to be something of a bust.\nWith the major averages steadily setting records, individual investors still appear to be pouring money into equities. But it appears they’re now investing in traditional mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. At the same time, they have slowed their previous manic buying of single stocks that sent once-obscure names such as GameStop (ticker: GME) soaring earlier in the year.\nAccording to a new report from J.P. Morgan’s global market strategy team, some of the most recent federal stimulus checks might have been deployed into funds rather than into individual stocks or options, as had been the case for much of the past year. Individual investors appear to be reverting to their pre-pandemic practice of buying funds.\nA month ago, this column highlighted research from Deutsche Bankthat found younger recipients of the $1,400 payments from Uncle Sam planned to put as much as half of the checks into stocks. The New York Times noted the same datamore than two weeks later, which, as it turns out, was just after individual investors’ trading activity appeared to peak, according to the J.P. Morgan report lead-authored by Nikolaos Panigirtzgolou.\nWhile fund buying has been strong,small trades in call options(10 contracts or less) have fallen off sharply from their peak in January, according to Options Clearing data cited by the bank. At the same time, a basket of stocks favored on retail trading platforms such as Robinhood has been moving sideways overall while theS&P 500has continued to rise to records.\nMeanwhile, retail flows into U.S. equities and exchange-traded funds have fallen to a five-day average of $380 million, based on estimates from J.P. Morgan’s global quantitative and derivatives strategy team. That’s down from the peak of $670 million a day in the five days ended March 16, but still above the 12-month daily average of $250 million.\nThis marks a switch back to individuals’ preference to their pre-pandemic buying of traditional equity funds from single stocks and options. Stock ETFs drew $199 billion in the first quarter, compared with $231.8 billion for all of 2020, according toMorningstar.\nWhy the switch back from stocks to funds? Here are a few guesses. Americans are getting back to work, as evidenced by the 916,000 jump in nonfarm payrolls in March reported last week. That would leave people with less time to play the market but still wanting to invest via ETFs. Or maybe some of them got caught up in their brackets for NCAA basketball March Madness. Or perhaps some saw their previous gains slip away as the favorite meme stocks rolled over.\nWhatever avenue they took, U.S. investors are fully invested in the stock market based on several other indicators cited by the bank. Equity holdings of hybrid mutual funds have rebounded to over 60%, in line with highs at previous market peaks in 2018, 2007, and 2000. U.S. households’ equity allocations of their financial assets are also at a record, according to the latest Federal Reserve data, topping the 2000 dot-com era peak. Meanwhile, net margin debt also is elevated by historical standards.\nTaking into account those three factors, “there appears clear evidence of elevated equity positioning by retail investors and thus a vulnerability for the equity market going forward,” the report said. When the public is all-in, that’s a signal for contrarians to take some chips off the table.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"GME":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":876508890,"gmtCreate":1637328211573,"gmtModify":1637328212077,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yeah!","listText":"yeah!","text":"yeah!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876508890","repostId":"1138047553","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138047553","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637327403,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138047553?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 21:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna Announces FDA Authorization of Booster Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for Adults 18 Years and Older<blockquote>Moderna宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种新冠疫苗加强剂量</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138047553","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Moderna stock surged 4% in premarket trading after announcing FDA authorization of booster dose of C","content":"<p>Moderna stock surged 4% in premarket trading&nbsp;after announcing FDA authorization of booster dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for adults 18 years and older.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种加强剂量的COVID-19疫苗后，Moderna股价在盘前交易中飙升4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8db683899273d344e819a53f4b3366b\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Moderna, Inc.&nbsp;today announced that theU.S. Food and Drug Administration(FDA) has extended the emergency use authorization of a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level to all adults aged 18 and older. This booster can be used in all individuals 18 years and older who have completed a primary vaccination with any other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna公司今天宣布，美国。美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)已将50µg剂量水平的Moderna COVID-19疫苗加强剂量的紧急使用授权扩大到所有18岁及以上的成年人。这种加强剂可用于所有18岁及以上已完成任何其他授权或批准的新冠肺炎疫苗初次接种的个人。</blockquote></p><p> “This emergency use authorization comes at a critical time as we enter the winter months and face increasing COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations across the country,” saidStéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer ofModerna. “We thank the FDA for their review, and are confident in the robust clinical evidence that a 50 µg booster dose of mRNA-1273 induces a strong immune response against COVID-19.”</p><p><blockquote>Moderna首席执行官Stéphane Bancel表示：“这项紧急使用授权是在我们进入冬季并面临全国范围内不断增加的COVID-19病例数和住院人数的关键时刻发布的。”“我们感谢FDA的审查，并对强有力的临床证据充满信心，即50µg加强剂量的mRNA-1273可诱导针对COVID-19的强烈免疫反应。”</blockquote></p><p> The booster dose is to be administered at least six months after completion of any primary series COVID-19 vaccination. OnOctober 20th, the FDAauthorizedfor emergency use a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level for people aged 65 and older as well as adults aged 18 to 64 who are at high risk of severe COVID-19; and people aged 18 to 64 with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The Moderna COVID-19 booster vaccine is authorized for adults ages 18 and above regardless of occupational risk factors in many international markets. This follows the earlier approval of the 100 µg mRNA 1273 third dose in immunocompromised individuals.</p><p><blockquote>加强剂量将在完成任何初级系列新冠肺炎疫苗接种后至少六个月进行。10月20日，FDA授权65岁及以上人群以及18至64岁严重COVID-19高风险成年人紧急使用50µg剂量水平的Moderna COVID-19疫苗加强剂量；以及经常在机构或职业上接触新型冠状病毒的18至64岁人群。在许多国际市场上，Moderna新冠肺炎加强疫苗被授权用于18岁及以上的成年人，无论职业风险因素如何。此前，100µg mRNA 1273第三剂在免疫功能低下个体中获得批准。</blockquote></p><p> The FDA based this EUA on the totality of scientific evidence shared by the company including a data analysis from the Phase 2 clinical study of mRNA-1273, which was amended to offer a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level to interested participants 6-8 months following their second dose (n=344). Neutralizing antibody titers had waned prior to boosting, particularly against variants of concern, at approximately 6 months. Notably, a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level boosted neutralizing titers significantly above the Phase 3 benchmark. The safety profile following the booster dose was similar to that observed previously for dose 2 of mRNA-1273.</p><p><blockquote>FDA根据该公司分享的全部科学证据制定了该EUA，包括mRNA-1273 2期临床研究的数据分析，该研究经过修订，以提供50µg剂量水平的mRNA-1273加强剂量。第二次给药后6-8个月感兴趣的参与者(n=344)。中和抗体滴度在加强之前减弱，特别是针对关注的变体，在大约6个月时。值得注意的是，50µg剂量水平的mRNA-1273加强剂量将中和滴度提高到显著高于3期基准。加强剂量后的安全性概况与先前针对mRNA-1273剂量2观察到的相似。</blockquote></p><p> As a next step, theU.S. Centers for Disease Controland Prevention’s (CDC)&nbsp;Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices(ACIP) will meet to discuss a potential recommendation for rollout of COVID-19 boosters to Americans.</p><p><blockquote>下一步，美国。美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）免疫实践咨询委员会（ACIP）将开会讨论向美国人推出新冠肺炎加强剂的潜在建议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna Announces FDA Authorization of Booster Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for Adults 18 Years and Older<blockquote>Moderna宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种新冠疫苗加强剂量</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna Announces FDA Authorization of Booster Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for Adults 18 Years and Older<blockquote>Moderna宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种新冠疫苗加强剂量</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-19 21:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Moderna stock surged 4% in premarket trading&nbsp;after announcing FDA authorization of booster dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for adults 18 years and older.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布FDA授权美国18岁及以上成年人接种加强剂量的COVID-19疫苗后，Moderna股价在盘前交易中飙升4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8db683899273d344e819a53f4b3366b\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Moderna, Inc.&nbsp;today announced that theU.S. Food and Drug Administration(FDA) has extended the emergency use authorization of a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level to all adults aged 18 and older. This booster can be used in all individuals 18 years and older who have completed a primary vaccination with any other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna公司今天宣布，美国。美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)已将50µg剂量水平的Moderna COVID-19疫苗加强剂量的紧急使用授权扩大到所有18岁及以上的成年人。这种加强剂可用于所有18岁及以上已完成任何其他授权或批准的新冠肺炎疫苗初次接种的个人。</blockquote></p><p> “This emergency use authorization comes at a critical time as we enter the winter months and face increasing COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations across the country,” saidStéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer ofModerna. “We thank the FDA for their review, and are confident in the robust clinical evidence that a 50 µg booster dose of mRNA-1273 induces a strong immune response against COVID-19.”</p><p><blockquote>Moderna首席执行官Stéphane Bancel表示：“这项紧急使用授权是在我们进入冬季并面临全国范围内不断增加的COVID-19病例数和住院人数的关键时刻发布的。”“我们感谢FDA的审查，并对强有力的临床证据充满信心，即50µg加强剂量的mRNA-1273可诱导针对COVID-19的强烈免疫反应。”</blockquote></p><p> The booster dose is to be administered at least six months after completion of any primary series COVID-19 vaccination. OnOctober 20th, the FDAauthorizedfor emergency use a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level for people aged 65 and older as well as adults aged 18 to 64 who are at high risk of severe COVID-19; and people aged 18 to 64 with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The Moderna COVID-19 booster vaccine is authorized for adults ages 18 and above regardless of occupational risk factors in many international markets. This follows the earlier approval of the 100 µg mRNA 1273 third dose in immunocompromised individuals.</p><p><blockquote>加强剂量将在完成任何初级系列新冠肺炎疫苗接种后至少六个月进行。10月20日，FDA授权65岁及以上人群以及18至64岁严重COVID-19高风险成年人紧急使用50µg剂量水平的Moderna COVID-19疫苗加强剂量；以及经常在机构或职业上接触新型冠状病毒的18至64岁人群。在许多国际市场上，Moderna新冠肺炎加强疫苗被授权用于18岁及以上的成年人，无论职业风险因素如何。此前，100µg mRNA 1273第三剂在免疫功能低下个体中获得批准。</blockquote></p><p> The FDA based this EUA on the totality of scientific evidence shared by the company including a data analysis from the Phase 2 clinical study of mRNA-1273, which was amended to offer a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level to interested participants 6-8 months following their second dose (n=344). Neutralizing antibody titers had waned prior to boosting, particularly against variants of concern, at approximately 6 months. Notably, a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level boosted neutralizing titers significantly above the Phase 3 benchmark. The safety profile following the booster dose was similar to that observed previously for dose 2 of mRNA-1273.</p><p><blockquote>FDA根据该公司分享的全部科学证据制定了该EUA，包括mRNA-1273 2期临床研究的数据分析，该研究经过修订，以提供50µg剂量水平的mRNA-1273加强剂量。第二次给药后6-8个月感兴趣的参与者(n=344)。中和抗体滴度在加强之前减弱，特别是针对关注的变体，在大约6个月时。值得注意的是，50µg剂量水平的mRNA-1273加强剂量将中和滴度提高到显著高于3期基准。加强剂量后的安全性概况与先前针对mRNA-1273剂量2观察到的相似。</blockquote></p><p> As a next step, theU.S. Centers for Disease Controland Prevention’s (CDC)&nbsp;Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices(ACIP) will meet to discuss a potential recommendation for rollout of COVID-19 boosters to Americans.</p><p><blockquote>下一步，美国。美国疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）免疫实践咨询委员会（ACIP）将开会讨论向美国人推出新冠肺炎加强剂的潜在建议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138047553","content_text":"Moderna stock surged 4% in premarket trading after announcing FDA authorization of booster dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in the U.S. for adults 18 years and older.\n\nModerna, Inc. today announced that theU.S. Food and Drug Administration(FDA) has extended the emergency use authorization of a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level to all adults aged 18 and older. This booster can be used in all individuals 18 years and older who have completed a primary vaccination with any other authorized or approved COVID-19 vaccine.\n“This emergency use authorization comes at a critical time as we enter the winter months and face increasing COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations across the country,” saidStéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer ofModerna. “We thank the FDA for their review, and are confident in the robust clinical evidence that a 50 µg booster dose of mRNA-1273 induces a strong immune response against COVID-19.”\nThe booster dose is to be administered at least six months after completion of any primary series COVID-19 vaccination. OnOctober 20th, the FDAauthorizedfor emergency use a booster dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the 50 µg dose level for people aged 65 and older as well as adults aged 18 to 64 who are at high risk of severe COVID-19; and people aged 18 to 64 with frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The Moderna COVID-19 booster vaccine is authorized for adults ages 18 and above regardless of occupational risk factors in many international markets. This follows the earlier approval of the 100 µg mRNA 1273 third dose in immunocompromised individuals.\nThe FDA based this EUA on the totality of scientific evidence shared by the company including a data analysis from the Phase 2 clinical study of mRNA-1273, which was amended to offer a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level to interested participants 6-8 months following their second dose (n=344). Neutralizing antibody titers had waned prior to boosting, particularly against variants of concern, at approximately 6 months. Notably, a booster dose of mRNA-1273 at the 50 µg dose level boosted neutralizing titers significantly above the Phase 3 benchmark. The safety profile following the booster dose was similar to that observed previously for dose 2 of mRNA-1273.\nAs a next step, theU.S. Centers for Disease Controland Prevention’s (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices(ACIP) will meet to discuss a potential recommendation for rollout of COVID-19 boosters to Americans.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":819319271,"gmtCreate":1630033391693,"gmtModify":1704954928257,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>nicee...$1.13b project.https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/comfortdelgro-1-13-billion-contract-auckland-rail-services-new-zealand-2138806?cid=FBcna","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>nicee...$1.13b project.https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/comfortdelgro-1-13-billion-contract-auckland-rail-services-new-zealand-2138806?cid=FBcna","text":"$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$nicee...$1.13b project.https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/comfortdelgro-1-13-billion-contract-auckland-rail-services-new-zealand-2138806?cid=FBcna","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819319271","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342062412,"gmtCreate":1618130641336,"gmtModify":1634294754609,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great! Reply to my comment pls.&nbsp;","listText":"Great! Reply to my comment pls.&nbsp;","text":"Great! Reply to my comment pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342062412","repostId":"2126038125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359618811,"gmtCreate":1616391593033,"gmtModify":1631888664382,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C31.SI\">$CAPITALAND LIMITED(C31.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when start trading???&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C31.SI\">$CAPITALAND LIMITED(C31.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when start trading???&nbsp;","text":"$CAPITALAND LIMITED(C31.SI)$ when start trading???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359618811","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109100779,"gmtCreate":1619669692291,"gmtModify":1634210848316,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice... Missed opportunity","listText":"Nice... Missed opportunity","text":"Nice... Missed opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109100779","repostId":"1132578048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138276232,"gmtCreate":1621946927926,"gmtModify":1634185269281,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niceeeee","listText":"Niceeeee","text":"Niceeeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138276232","repostId":"1196961143","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107676122,"gmtCreate":1620489249366,"gmtModify":1634198436046,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107676122","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122089368?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于流通中的所有美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与一些隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的东西。股票估值是自2000年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来的最低利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是一个驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中将利率维持在接近零的水平，并暗示利率至少在两年内不会改变。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀——即实际收益率深度为负——这是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取行动是为了应对一场疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候可能造成的损害甚至比2007-09年的金融危机还要大。然而，这在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会削弱利率如此之低的原因，威胁市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>与现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一起担任美联储理事的哈佛大学经济学家杰里米·斯坦表示：“假设利率将长期处于低位，股市的定价至少是完美的。”“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，‘一切都很好，我们不急于加息。’但虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但这是完全有可能的。我们将有几个季度的通胀热点数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持极低水平的情况下，股票估值才是合理的，因此如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通胀并且债券收益率上升1至1.5个百分点，股票如何重新定价。“资产价格可能会出现严重调整。”</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前也来过这里。20世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司几近崩溃，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为自己的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）会损害他们低失业率和通胀的主要目标，而且比让泡沫自行破灭造成的危害更大。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告称，资产“估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4月28日，鲍威尔承认市场看起来“有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一：“我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种有很大关系和经济重新开放。”但他没有暗示美联储将缩减刺激措施：“经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走。”劳工部周五的一份报告显示，4月份创造的就业机会远低于华尔街的预期，这突显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储当时将利率降至接近零的水平并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正面临强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储2%的目标以下。人口老龄化等深层次力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，一些人将这种组合称为“长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机还要严重。但两个月后，随着限制放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的更早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币的水龙头仍然敞开着。去年5月，民主党人首次提出额外3万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降6%。实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党在赢得白宫和国会后，继续推进同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场正常运转，它延长了该计划，同时将理由转向保持低债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于2%之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回到2%，而且更高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都稳定在2%。为此，它承诺在充分就业恢复、通胀率达到2%并走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在2024年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛节</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然盈利预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据FactSet的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的22倍，这一水平仅在2000年互联网繁荣的顶峰时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。根据彭博巴克莱的数据，投资者愿意以至少1995年以来的最低收益率以及自2007年以来与安全国债的最窄利差购买垃圾级公司的债券。经通胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更加合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策完全按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这有利于利润、住房需求和企业信誉；和风险偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率不再足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司估值较高。这些估值并不是优越的现金流或利润前景的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币，传统估值也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币作为交易媒介和价值储存手段。“加密货币有可能像互联网一样具有革命性并被广泛采用，”加密货币交易所Coinbase GlobalInc.首次公开募股的招股说明书称，其语言让人想起二十多年前与互联网相关的IPO。根据信息服务机构CoinDesk的数据，截至4月29日，加密货币的价值超过2万亿美元，大致相当于流通中的所有美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在1987年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20世纪90年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，而在21世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。今天的等价物是零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行组成的财团国际清算银行最近的一份报告，此类投资者越来越多地影响整体市场的走向。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，跟踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量却在攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基础业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票，例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测经常被归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激则不然。金融研究公司Bianco Research的负责人Jim Bianco表示，随着财政部发放1400美元的刺激支票，3月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“你用支票做的第一件事就是将其存入你的账户，到2021年，这就是你的经纪账户，”比安科先生说。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此：高价股票最终可能会赚取必要的利润来证明当今的估值是合理的，尤其是在经济目前处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机领域可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在，许多竞争对手也声称要做同样的事情。特斯拉公司曾经是你唯一可以购买来押注电动汽车的股票；现在有蔚来、NikolaCorp.和FiskerInc.，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是对经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。4月份的就业令人失望提醒人们经济前景仍然多么不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能发生。不能排除与一些隐藏的脆弱性相关的金融危机。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，而抵押贷款承销又如此紧张，以至于类似于2007-09年始于抵押贷款违约的金融危机似乎很遥远。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，其价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷方造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到他们的生存，也没有引发对处境相似的公司的蔓延。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿尔奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就剩下通货膨胀了。由于半导体、木材和工人的短缺都给价格和成本带来了上行压力，对通胀的担忧现在很普遍。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，常规债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的通胀率平均约为2.5%。这很难是20世纪70年代的重演，也符合美联储长期平均通胀率2%的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显打破过去十年低于2%的区间。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略高将导致美联储将短期利率也略高，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自20世纪90年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往朝着相反的方向波动。这是因为当通胀不是问题时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了抵御股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为一个问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，其收益率就会上升。前美联储经济学家、现就职于对冲基金D.E.的布莱恩·萨克(Brian Sack)表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股债相关性开始消失。肖公司。他将此部分归因于通胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融领域，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀再也不会产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地使经济摆脱了过去十年的模式，这种自满可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373482510,"gmtCreate":1618878247830,"gmtModify":1634290234923,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeahhh!&nbsp;","listText":"Yeahhh!&nbsp;","text":"Yeahhh!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373482510","repostId":"1114523776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326206362,"gmtCreate":1615645382556,"gmtModify":1703491866809,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;how will it go on monday","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;how will it go on monday","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ how will it go on monday","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfc28fa52226097dce82ceafc54fbef","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326206362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323494089,"gmtCreate":1615365317041,"gmtModify":1703487913842,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$</a>&nbsp;not much but nice.. Hold till dividend payout.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$</a>&nbsp;not much but nice.. Hold till dividend payout.&nbsp;","text":"$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$ not much but nice.. Hold till dividend payout.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2a96598b91d75937d7a38596d2bf36","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323494089","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366611834,"gmtCreate":1614472913928,"gmtModify":1703477658684,"author":{"id":"3573260346980588","authorId":"3573260346980588","name":"ahpeh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb528ffac1ff5abf9cb2e14ad86cf5a7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573260346980588","idStr":"3573260346980588"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great info","listText":"Great info","text":"Great info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366611834","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}