WSS的个人主页 - 老虎社区

WSS

WSS

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

11关注

8粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-04-09

Yes baba undervalued

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-31

Buy

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-29

They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-26

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-25

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$drop to $70 also possible

2021-03-23

$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$Below $100 to start buying

2021-03-19

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-18

No, too expensive

Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>

2021-03-17

Crash and burn

What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>

2021-03-17

Drop to $15 then consider

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-17

$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$will drop more before going up in next few days due to lockup shares

2021-03-15

Lets go

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-15

Tesla

Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>

2021-03-08

$XIAOMI-W(01810)$waiting for 15-18 to buy more!!!

2021-03-07

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$looking at $68

2021-03-07

Looking at $20-25

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-28

Very good well done

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-25

Buy some Put option?

Here's Why GameStop Stock Just Exploded Higher<blockquote>这就是游戏驿站股价暴涨的原因</blockquote>

2021-02-24

Nice

The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>

2021-02-24

Buy the dip

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3572665963519262","uuid":"3572665963519262","gmtCreate":1609573593094,"gmtModify":1612576873064,"name":"WSS","pinyin":"wss","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":8,"headSize":11,"tweetSize":29,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.23","exceedPercentage":"80.57%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.69%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":348801207,"gmtCreate":1617899062909,"gmtModify":1634295858898,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes baba undervalued","listText":"Yes baba undervalued","text":"Yes baba undervalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348801207","repostId":"2125770926","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354155225,"gmtCreate":1617153698867,"gmtModify":1634522385047,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354155225","repostId":"1165607470","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352253009,"gmtCreate":1616980209701,"gmtModify":1634523343459,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","listText":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","text":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352253009","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358447463,"gmtCreate":1616725680252,"gmtModify":1634524338935,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358447463","repostId":"1176747936","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351524538,"gmtCreate":1616606285924,"gmtModify":1631883800829,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>drop to $70 also possible","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>drop to $70 also possible","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$drop to $70 also possible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351524538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353289995,"gmtCreate":1616501004317,"gmtModify":1634525510881,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>Below $100 to start buying","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>Below $100 to start buying","text":"$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$Below $100 to start buying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353289995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327445643,"gmtCreate":1616120218082,"gmtModify":1634527129210,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327445643","repostId":"2120933161","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327942143,"gmtCreate":1616054873882,"gmtModify":1703496941098,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No, too expensive","listText":"No, too expensive","text":"No, too expensive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327942143","repostId":"2119971630","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2119971630","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616054515,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119971630?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119971630","media":"Insider Monkey","summary":"We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitati","content":"<p>We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square, Inc</a>. (NYSE:SQ).</p><p><blockquote>我们知道，从长远来看，对冲基金会产生强劲的、经过风险调整的回报，因此模仿他们共同看好的选择对于散户投资者来说可能是一种有利可图的策略。聪明的投资者拥有数十亿美元的资产，必须进行复杂的分析，花费大量资源，并使用普通大众并不总是可用的工具。这并不意味着他们没有偶尔的巨大损失；确实如此（就像Melvin Capital最近在游戏驿站的损失一样）。然而，密切关注对冲基金活动仍然是一个好主意。考虑到这一点，由于本轮13F备案刚刚结束，让我们来看看聪明资金对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">广场公司</a>.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell?</b>&nbsp;Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的股票是买入还是卖出？</b>知名投资者变得更加乐观。近几个月看涨对冲基金持仓数量增加了16个。截至2020年第四季度末，Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）参与了89家对冲基金的投资组合。这一统计数据的历史最高值此前是73。这意味着对冲基金对该股的看涨头寸数量目前处于历史最高水平。我们的计算还显示，SQ并未跻身对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</h2>At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote><h2>对冲基金认为SQ是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</h2>截至第四季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有89家看好该股，较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>季度前。相比之下，一年前有56家对冲基金持有SQ的股票或看涨看涨期权期权。随着对冲基金情绪的波动，著名对冲基金经理的“上层”正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fe39e494f0228e0898f738c1f67842\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.</p><p><blockquote>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的最大股份由ARK Investment Management持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值15.414亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是Coatue Management，头寸为13.352亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Bares Capital Management、Lone Pine Capital和Whale Rock Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Bares Capital Management将最大的权重分配给了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ），约占其13F投资组合的21.35%。Tekne Capital Management也相对非常看好该股，将其13F股票投资组合的16.68%指定为SQ。</blockquote></p><p>As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>随着总利息的增加，特定的基金经理已经一头扎进了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。由蔡斯·科尔曼(Chase Coleman)管理的老虎全球管理有限责任公司(Tiger Global Management LLC)在Square，Inc.(NYSE：SQ)建立了最大的头寸。截至本季度末，Tiger Global Management LLC向该公司投资了8890万美元。Renaissance Technologies本季度还对该股进行了5990万美元的投资。以下基金也在新的SQ投资者之列：Christopher Lyle的SCGE Management、Paul Marshall和Ian Wace的Marshall Wace LLP，以及Michael Kharitonov和Jon David McAuliffe的Voleon Capital。</blockquote></p><p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc (NYSE:SNOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下与Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）类似的其他股票的对冲基金活动。这些股票包括奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MO）、京东公司（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）、KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">雪花</a>公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）和Crown Castle International Corp.(REIT)（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCI）。这组股票的市值最接近SQ的市值。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125cad2d7e35d8c0582071c4dd3626c9\" tg-width=\"1154\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有58.7个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为55.24亿美元。SQ的这一数字为88.19亿美元。Booking Holdings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有30个看涨对冲基金头寸。Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）不是这一组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对SQ的总体对冲基金情绪得分为77.8。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。我们的计算显示，对冲基金最受欢迎的前30只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为81.2%，跑赢标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）26个百分点。截至3月12日，这些股票在2021年上涨了7%，仍跑赢大盘1.6个百分点。对冲基金押注SQ也是正确的，因为该股自第四季度末（截至3/12）以来回报率为11.2%，表现优于市场。对冲基金因其相对看涨而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606273129822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Square (SQ) Stock A Buy Or Sell?<blockquote>Square(SQ)股票是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Insider Monkey</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square, Inc</a>. (NYSE:SQ).</p><p><blockquote>我们知道，从长远来看，对冲基金会产生强劲的、经过风险调整的回报，因此模仿他们共同看好的选择对于散户投资者来说可能是一种有利可图的策略。聪明的投资者拥有数十亿美元的资产，必须进行复杂的分析，花费大量资源，并使用普通大众并不总是可用的工具。这并不意味着他们没有偶尔的巨大损失；确实如此（就像Melvin Capital最近在游戏驿站的损失一样）。然而，密切关注对冲基金活动仍然是一个好主意。考虑到这一点，由于本轮13F备案刚刚结束，让我们来看看聪明资金对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">广场公司</a>.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell?</b>&nbsp;Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote><b>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的股票是买入还是卖出？</b>知名投资者变得更加乐观。近几个月看涨对冲基金持仓数量增加了16个。截至2020年第四季度末，Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）参与了89家对冲基金的投资组合。这一统计数据的历史最高值此前是73。这意味着对冲基金对该股的看涨头寸数量目前处于历史最高水平。我们的计算还显示，SQ并未跻身对冲基金最受欢迎的30只股票之列。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?</h2>At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).</p><p><blockquote><h2>对冲基金认为SQ是现在值得买入的好股票吗？</h2>截至第四季度末，Insider Monkey追踪的对冲基金中共有89家看好该股，较<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>季度前。相比之下，一年前有56家对冲基金持有SQ的股票或看涨看涨期权期权。随着对冲基金情绪的波动，著名对冲基金经理的“上层”正在大幅增持（或已经积累了大量头寸）。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fe39e494f0228e0898f738c1f67842\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.</p><p><blockquote>Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）的最大股份由ARK Investment Management持有，该公司报告截至12月底持有价值15.414亿美元的股票。紧随其后的是Coatue Management，头寸为13.352亿美元。其他看好该公司的投资者包括Bares Capital Management、Lone Pine Capital和Whale Rock Capital Management。就分配给每个头寸的投资组合权重而言，Bares Capital Management将最大的权重分配给了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ），约占其13F投资组合的21.35%。Tekne Capital Management也相对非常看好该股，将其13F股票投资组合的16.68%指定为SQ。</blockquote></p><p>As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.</p><p><blockquote>随着总利息的增加，特定的基金经理已经一头扎进了Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）。由蔡斯·科尔曼(Chase Coleman)管理的老虎全球管理有限责任公司(Tiger Global Management LLC)在Square，Inc.(NYSE：SQ)建立了最大的头寸。截至本季度末，Tiger Global Management LLC向该公司投资了8890万美元。Renaissance Technologies本季度还对该股进行了5990万美元的投资。以下基金也在新的SQ投资者之列：Christopher Lyle的SCGE Management、Paul Marshall和Ian Wace的Marshall Wace LLP，以及Michael Kharitonov和Jon David McAuliffe的Voleon Capital。</blockquote></p><p>Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a> Inc (NYSE:SNOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们回顾一下与Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）类似的其他股票的对冲基金活动。这些股票包括奥驰亚集团公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MO）、京东公司（纳斯达克股票代码：JD）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated（纳斯达克股票代码：VRTX）、KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">雪花</a>公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNOW），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">预订控股</a>Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）和Crown Castle International Corp.(REIT)（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CCI）。这组股票的市值最接近SQ的市值。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125cad2d7e35d8c0582071c4dd3626c9\" tg-width=\"1154\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些股票平均有58.7个对冲基金持有看涨头寸，这些股票的平均投资金额为55.24亿美元。SQ的这一数字为88.19亿美元。Booking Holdings Inc.（纳斯达克股票代码：BKNG）是此表中最受欢迎的股票。另一方面，KE Holdings Inc（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BEKE）是最不受欢迎的公司，只有30个看涨对冲基金头寸。Square，Inc.（纽约证券交易所代码：SQ）不是这一组中最受欢迎的股票，但对冲基金的兴趣仍高于平均水平。我们对SQ的总体对冲基金情绪得分为77.8。相对于其他股票以及相对于其历史范围，对冲基金头寸数量较多的股票获得较高的情绪得分。我们的计算显示，对冲基金最受欢迎的前30只股票在2019年和2020年的回报率为81.2%，跑赢标普500 ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）26个百分点。截至3月12日，这些股票在2021年上涨了7%，仍跑赢大盘1.6个百分点。对冲基金押注SQ也是正确的，因为该股自第四季度末（截至3/12）以来回报率为11.2%，表现优于市场。对冲基金因其相对看涨而获得回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-square-sq-stock-a-buy-or-sell-924395/\">Insider Monkey</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-square-sq-stock-a-buy-or-sell-924395/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119971630","content_text":"We know that hedge funds generate strong, risk-adjusted returns over the long run, therefore imitating the picks that they are collectively bullish on can be a profitable strategy for retail investors. With billions of dollars in assets, smart money investors have to conduct complex analyses, spend many resources and use tools that are not always available for the general crowd. This doesn't mean that they don't have occasional colossal losses; they do (like Melvin Capital's recent GameStop losses). However, it is still a good idea to keep an eye on hedge fund activity. With this in mind, as the current round of 13F filings has just ended, let’s examine the smart money sentiment towards Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ).Is Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) stock a buy or sell? Prominent investors were getting more bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund positions increased by 16 in recent months. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was in 89 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The all time high for this statistic was previously 73. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that SQ isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds.Do Hedge Funds Think SQ Is A Good Stock To Buy Now?At Q4's end, a total of 89 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were bullish on this stock, a change of 22% from one quarter earlier. By comparison, 56 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in SQ a year ago. With hedge funds' sentiment swirling, there exists an \"upper tier\" of notable hedge fund managers who were adding to their holdings considerably (or already accumulated large positions).The largest stake in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) was held by ARK Investment Management, which reported holding $1541.4 million worth of stock at the end of December. It was followed by Coatue Management with a $1335.2 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Bares Capital Management, Lone Pine Capital, and Whale Rock Capital Management. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position Bares Capital Management allocated the biggest weight to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ), around 21.35% of its 13F portfolio. Tekne Capital Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 16.68 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to SQ.As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have jumped into Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) headfirst. Tiger Global Management LLC, managed by Chase Coleman, initiated the biggest position in Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). Tiger Global Management LLC had $88.9 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Renaissance Technologies also made a $59.9 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The following funds were also among the new SQ investors: Christopher Lyle's SCGE Management, Paul Marshall and Ian Wace's Marshall Wace LLP, and Michael Kharitonov and Jon David McAuliffe's Voleon Capital.Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ). These stocks are Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO), JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE), Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW), Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Crown Castle International Corp. (REIT) (NYSE:CCI). This group of stocks' market caps are closest to SQ's market cap.As you can see these stocks had an average of 58.7 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $5524 million. That figure was $8819 million in SQ's case. Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:BKNG) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand KE Holdings Inc (NYSE:BEKE) is the least popular one with only 30 bullish hedge fund positions. Square, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) is not the most popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still above average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for SQ is 77.8. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 81.2% in 2019 and 2020, and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 26 percentage points. These stocks gained 7% in 2021 through March 12th and still beat the market by 1.6 percentage points. Hedge funds were also right about betting on SQ as the stock returned 11.2% since the end of Q4 (through 3/12) and outperformed the market. Hedge funds were rewarded for their relative bullishness.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324640640,"gmtCreate":1615991108080,"gmtModify":1703496083732,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Crash and burn","listText":"Crash and burn","text":"Crash and burn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324640640","repostId":"1139863038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139863038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615985802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139863038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 20:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139863038","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The ra","content":"<p><ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>十年期美国国债收益率为1.61%。</li><li>10年期优质公司债收益率2.09%。</li><li>30年期抵押贷款利率为3.05%。</li></ul>尽管最近有所上升，但利率仍徘徊在历史低点附近。我们不会轻易使用“历史性”这个词。我们所说的“历史性”是指自1776年美国诞生以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.</p><p><blockquote>下图由视觉资本家提供，强调了我们的观点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.</p><p><blockquote>尽管利率处于300年来的低点，但投资者正变得焦虑，因为利率正在上升。最近的历史表明他们应该担心。对过去40年的回顾表明，利率突然飙升和金融问题齐头并进。</blockquote></p><p>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?</p><p><blockquote>所有投资者面临的问题是，在谚语再次击中风扇之前，峰值会有多大？</blockquote></p><p><b>Debt-Driven Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务驱动型经济</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的40年里，债务越来越多地推动了经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法本身并没有告诉我们任何关于经济健康状况的信息。为了更好地量化债务的好处或后果，我们需要了解它是如何被使用的。</blockquote></p><p>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.</p><p><blockquote>当债务得到有效利用时，利息和本金就会被更高的利润和持续的经济活动所覆盖。更好的是，超过债务成本的收入使国家更加繁荣。</blockquote></p><p>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.</p><p><blockquote>相反，非生产性债务可能会为经济活动提供一次性火花，但它几乎不会产生甚至没有剩余收入来为未来服务。最终，它会造成经济阻力，因为未来的偿债取代了生产性投资和/或消费。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了未偿债务总额与GDP的比率稳步上升。如果债务总体上是生产性的，那么无论债务金额多少，该比率都会下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. Economic Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国经济脆弱性</b></blockquote></p><p>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，美国经济过度依赖非生产性债务。毫不奇怪，三十年来，长期增长率一直呈下降趋势。去年增加的大量不良债务只会进一步降低未来的增长率。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.</p><p><blockquote>美联储敏锐地意识到这一弱点，但拒绝承认问题或激励生产性债务。相反，他们以极低的利率吹捧更多债务的暂时经济效益。这样做，他们助长了投机和消费，而不是生产性债务。</blockquote></p><p>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;<i>“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”</i></p><p><blockquote>在Wicksell的优雅模型中，我们指出：<i>“另一方面，如果市场利率异常地保持在自然利率以下，那么资本配置决策就不是基于边际效率而是根据投资资本的平均回报率来做出的。这就解释了为什么在那些时期，股票和房地产等投机性资产会蓬勃发展。”</i></blockquote></p><p><i>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“但当短期市场利率低于自然利率时，聪明的投资者会做出适当的反应。他们以低利率大量借贷，购买回报可预测、期限较短的现有资产。金融资产价值飙升，而长期、现金流驱动、风险较高的投资则萎靡不振。”</i></blockquote></p><p>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.</p><p><blockquote>简单地说，美联储的政策是让派对继续进行，而不用担心明天的宿醉。正如他们所展示的，狗的毛发——更多的债务——有助于明天的派对继续进行。不幸的是，这种鲁莽政策的代价是国家的财政脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这种情况的证据非常明显。目前，投资者对利率上升感到担忧，尽管利率仅升至过去300年来的最低水平。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Measuring Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>测量脆性</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.</p><p><blockquote>回顾过去的40年，揭示了一个令人不安的问题。每当利率达到下降趋势的上限时，就会发生某种金融危机。下图显示了利率和GDP的稳步下降，以及利率暂时上升时发生的各种危机。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis</b>. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.</p><p><blockquote><b>鉴于利率急剧上升时经常发生危机，我们应该考虑在下一次危机之前利率可以上升到多高</b>请注意，随着时间的推移，产生问题的速率增加越来越少。如前所述，原因是债务的增长超过了偿还能力。</blockquote></p><p>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化利率还能上升多少，我们展示了下图。图表中的红色阴影区域是所有债务利息支出变化的代理计算。我们使用未偿债务、一年期利率变化和GDP来计算变化。我们将数据归一化到经济规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.</p><p><blockquote>目前代理利息支出的一年变化比一年前增长了3.50%。如图所示，最近两次重大危机（2000年和2008年）以及一些小危机都发生在代理指数上涨3%到4%的时候。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST收益率到5月份升至2.0%（目前为1.60%），该指标将升至5.25%，远高于互联网和房地产泡沫破裂时的4.0%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.</p><p><blockquote>代理利息支出模型远非完美，但它提供了承受更高利率的痛苦阈值很小的证据。</blockquote></p><p>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST利率到4月份升至1.75%，代理利息支出将超过1990年以来的所有峰值水平。然而，这一次，大规模的财政刺激、货币操作和经济重新开放可能会暂时掩盖利率的上升，使其进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.</p><p><blockquote>就像其他时候利率上升“太多”一样，如果利率继续上升，就会发生危机。似乎唯一的问题是美联储何时会像往常一样出手救援。</blockquote></p><p><b>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>系好安全带，数学表明危机可能比任何人想象的都要近。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 20:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>十年期美国国债收益率为1.61%。</li><li>10年期优质公司债收益率2.09%。</li><li>30年期抵押贷款利率为3.05%。</li></ul>尽管最近有所上升，但利率仍徘徊在历史低点附近。我们不会轻易使用“历史性”这个词。我们所说的“历史性”是指自1776年美国诞生以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.</p><p><blockquote>下图由视觉资本家提供，强调了我们的观点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.</p><p><blockquote>尽管利率处于300年来的低点，但投资者正变得焦虑，因为利率正在上升。最近的历史表明他们应该担心。对过去40年的回顾表明，利率突然飙升和金融问题齐头并进。</blockquote></p><p>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?</p><p><blockquote>所有投资者面临的问题是，在谚语再次击中风扇之前，峰值会有多大？</blockquote></p><p><b>Debt-Driven Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务驱动型经济</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的40年里，债务越来越多地推动了经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法本身并没有告诉我们任何关于经济健康状况的信息。为了更好地量化债务的好处或后果，我们需要了解它是如何被使用的。</blockquote></p><p>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.</p><p><blockquote>当债务得到有效利用时，利息和本金就会被更高的利润和持续的经济活动所覆盖。更好的是，超过债务成本的收入使国家更加繁荣。</blockquote></p><p>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.</p><p><blockquote>相反，非生产性债务可能会为经济活动提供一次性火花，但它几乎不会产生甚至没有剩余收入来为未来服务。最终，它会造成经济阻力，因为未来的偿债取代了生产性投资和/或消费。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了未偿债务总额与GDP的比率稳步上升。如果债务总体上是生产性的，那么无论债务金额多少，该比率都会下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. Economic Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国经济脆弱性</b></blockquote></p><p>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，美国经济过度依赖非生产性债务。毫不奇怪，三十年来，长期增长率一直呈下降趋势。去年增加的大量不良债务只会进一步降低未来的增长率。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.</p><p><blockquote>美联储敏锐地意识到这一弱点，但拒绝承认问题或激励生产性债务。相反，他们以极低的利率吹捧更多债务的暂时经济效益。这样做，他们助长了投机和消费，而不是生产性债务。</blockquote></p><p>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;<i>“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”</i></p><p><blockquote>在Wicksell的优雅模型中，我们指出：<i>“另一方面，如果市场利率异常地保持在自然利率以下，那么资本配置决策就不是基于边际效率而是根据投资资本的平均回报率来做出的。这就解释了为什么在那些时期，股票和房地产等投机性资产会蓬勃发展。”</i></blockquote></p><p><i>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“但当短期市场利率低于自然利率时，聪明的投资者会做出适当的反应。他们以低利率大量借贷，购买回报可预测、期限较短的现有资产。金融资产价值飙升，而长期、现金流驱动、风险较高的投资则萎靡不振。”</i></blockquote></p><p>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.</p><p><blockquote>简单地说，美联储的政策是让派对继续进行，而不用担心明天的宿醉。正如他们所展示的，狗的毛发——更多的债务——有助于明天的派对继续进行。不幸的是，这种鲁莽政策的代价是国家的财政脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这种情况的证据非常明显。目前，投资者对利率上升感到担忧，尽管利率仅升至过去300年来的最低水平。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Measuring Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>测量脆性</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.</p><p><blockquote>回顾过去的40年，揭示了一个令人不安的问题。每当利率达到下降趋势的上限时，就会发生某种金融危机。下图显示了利率和GDP的稳步下降，以及利率暂时上升时发生的各种危机。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis</b>. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.</p><p><blockquote><b>鉴于利率急剧上升时经常发生危机，我们应该考虑在下一次危机之前利率可以上升到多高</b>请注意，随着时间的推移，产生问题的速率增加越来越少。如前所述，原因是债务的增长超过了偿还能力。</blockquote></p><p>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化利率还能上升多少，我们展示了下图。图表中的红色阴影区域是所有债务利息支出变化的代理计算。我们使用未偿债务、一年期利率变化和GDP来计算变化。我们将数据归一化到经济规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.</p><p><blockquote>目前代理利息支出的一年变化比一年前增长了3.50%。如图所示，最近两次重大危机（2000年和2008年）以及一些小危机都发生在代理指数上涨3%到4%的时候。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST收益率到5月份升至2.0%（目前为1.60%），该指标将升至5.25%，远高于互联网和房地产泡沫破裂时的4.0%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.</p><p><blockquote>代理利息支出模型远非完美，但它提供了承受更高利率的痛苦阈值很小的证据。</blockquote></p><p>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST利率到4月份升至1.75%，代理利息支出将超过1990年以来的所有峰值水平。然而，这一次，大规模的财政刺激、货币操作和经济重新开放可能会暂时掩盖利率的上升，使其进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.</p><p><blockquote>就像其他时候利率上升“太多”一样，如果利率继续上升，就会发生危机。似乎唯一的问题是美联储何时会像往常一样出手救援。</blockquote></p><p><b>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>系好安全带，数学表明危机可能比任何人想象的都要近。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139863038","content_text":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows.  We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?Debt-Driven EconomyOver the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.U.S. Economic FragilityAs shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.In Wicksell’s Elegant Model we stated: “On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.Measuring FragilityLooking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.SummaryThe proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.  However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324657813,"gmtCreate":1615991040632,"gmtModify":1703496081648,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Drop to $15 then consider","listText":"Drop to $15 then consider","text":"Drop to $15 then consider","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324657813","repostId":"1179894269","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324388778,"gmtCreate":1615963939494,"gmtModify":1703495598838,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>will drop more before going up in next few days due to lockup shares","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>will drop more before going up in next few days due to lockup shares","text":"$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$will drop more before going up in next few days due to lockup shares","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324388778","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322338410,"gmtCreate":1615772774030,"gmtModify":1703492716186,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lets go","listText":"Lets go","text":"Lets go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322338410","repostId":"2119999509","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322338252,"gmtCreate":1615772748676,"gmtModify":1703492715840,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla","listText":"Tesla","text":"Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322338252","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港证券交易所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港证券交易所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329995953,"gmtCreate":1615196267372,"gmtModify":1703485490081,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>waiting for 15-18 to buy more!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>waiting for 15-18 to buy more!!!","text":"$XIAOMI-W(01810)$waiting for 15-18 to buy more!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329995953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320257832,"gmtCreate":1615125527026,"gmtModify":1703484872621,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>looking at $68","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>looking at $68","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$looking at $68","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320257832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320252083,"gmtCreate":1615124855742,"gmtModify":1703484868022,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looking at $20-25","listText":"Looking at $20-25","text":"Looking at $20-25","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320252083","repostId":"1102082323","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366251018,"gmtCreate":1614494089334,"gmtModify":1703477845180,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Very good well done","listText":"Very good well done","text":"Very good well done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366251018","repostId":"2114371822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361672189,"gmtCreate":1614233534141,"gmtModify":1634550560596,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy some Put option?","listText":"Buy some Put option?","text":"Buy some Put option?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361672189","repostId":"1162365074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162365074","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614230811,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162365074?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-25 13:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why GameStop Stock Just Exploded Higher<blockquote>这就是游戏驿站股价暴涨的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162365074","media":"Motley Fool ","summary":"Everyone is gearing up for short squeeze 2.0.\nWhat happened\nShares of GameStop were trading moderate","content":"<p>Everyone is gearing up for short squeeze 2.0.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在为轧空2.0做准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;were trading moderately higher on Wednesday until about 1 p.m. EST, when they started gaining a little momentum. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, the stock absolutely exploded higher. Trading was halted several times as it rapidly climbed to finish 104% higher for the day. And it's still climbing after hours.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午1点左右，游戏驿站股价小幅走高。美国东部时间，当他们开始获得一点动力时。然后，似乎不知从哪里冒出来的，该股绝对飙升。由于股价迅速攀升，当天收盘上涨104%，交易多次暂停。而且下班后还在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, GameStop stock had an epic short squeeze, orchestrated by a group on Reddit called Wallstreetbets. This group noticed that&nbsp;short interest&nbsp;for GameStop stock was over 100%. With a clever combination of buying common shares and call options (called a&nbsp;gamma squeeze), the group was able to cause the price per share to go up, forcing many short-sellers to close their positions for massive losses.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，Reddit上一个名为Wallstreetbets的组织精心策划了游戏驿站股票的大规模轧空。该小组注意到游戏驿站股票的空头兴趣超过100%。通过购买普通股和看涨期权期权（称为伽马挤压）的巧妙组合，该集团能够导致每股价格上涨，迫使许多卖空者平仓，蒙受巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p> When the dust from the short squeeze settled, short interest for GameStop stock plummeted. Only about 40% of the float was shorted as of Jan. 29. More recent data isn't available yet to know what it is exactly today. But the decline in short interest appeared to mark the end of the GameStop saga. The stock fell roughly 90% from peak highs.</p><p><blockquote>当轧空尘埃落定后，游戏驿站股票的空头兴趣直线下降。截至1月29日，只有约40%的流通量被做空。目前还没有更多的数据来知道它今天到底是什么。但空头兴趣的下降似乎标志着游戏驿站传奇的结束。该股较峰值下跌约90%。</blockquote></p><p> Except, apparently, everyone simply regrouped for round two.</p><p><blockquote>除了，很明显，每个人都只是在第二轮重新集结。</blockquote></p><p> Traders were out in full force late this afternoon, bidding GameStop stock back up. To be clear, 40% short interest is still significant enough to spark a mini&nbsp;short squeeze. However, it's possible shorts decided to short GameStop again, thinking it was all over. After all, the stock was still trading more than 10 times where it traded before all of this began. If short interest has increased any since Jan. 29, then this could be a wild ride yet again.</p><p><blockquote>今天下午晚些时候，交易员全力以赴，竞标游戏驿站股票。需要明确的是，40%的空头兴趣仍然足以引发迷你轧空。然而，空头可能决定再次做空游戏驿站，认为一切都结束了。毕竟，该股的交易价格仍是这一切开始前的10倍以上。如果自1月29日以来空头兴趣有所增加，那么这可能会再次成为一场疯狂的旅程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Last time, many GameStop bulls felt cheated because of the trading restrictions Robinhood and other brokerages put on the stock. In a recent interview with Dave Portnoy, Robinhood's CEO said it moved to restrict trading because it feared an impending liquidity issue if it didn't act.&nbsp;Since then, the company has raised a lot of money, seemingly mitigating this risk. Considering all the negative press it received last time, it's fair to wonder if Robinhood would restrict the buying of GameStop stock again. If it doesn't, it will be interesting to watch just how high GameStop stock can fly.</p><p><blockquote>上次，由于Robinhood和其他券商对该股施加的交易限制，许多游戏驿站多头感到被骗了。在最近接受戴夫·波特诺伊（Dave Portnoy）采访时，Robinhood的首席执行官表示，它采取行动限制交易，因为它担心如果不采取行动，流动性问题即将到来。自那以后，该公司筹集了大量资金，似乎减轻了这种风险。考虑到上次收到的所有负面新闻，人们有理由怀疑罗宾汉是否会再次限制购买游戏驿站股票。如果没有，看看游戏驿站股票能飞多高将会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> For me, I'll be watching with interest. But I'm not a GameStop stock buyer today. When I invest, I'm looking for strong companies with long runways for growth. GameStop doesn't fit that description for me.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，我会饶有兴趣地观看。但我今天不是游戏驿站股票买家。当我投资时，我会寻找具有长期增长空间的强大公司。游戏驿站不符合我的描述。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why GameStop Stock Just Exploded Higher<blockquote>这就是游戏驿站股价暴涨的原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why GameStop Stock Just Exploded Higher<blockquote>这就是游戏驿站股价暴涨的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool </strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-25 13:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Everyone is gearing up for short squeeze 2.0.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在为轧空2.0做准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;were trading moderately higher on Wednesday until about 1 p.m. EST, when they started gaining a little momentum. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, the stock absolutely exploded higher. Trading was halted several times as it rapidly climbed to finish 104% higher for the day. And it's still climbing after hours.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午1点左右，游戏驿站股价小幅走高。美国东部时间，当他们开始获得一点动力时。然后，似乎不知从哪里冒出来的，该股绝对飙升。由于股价迅速攀升，当天收盘上涨104%，交易多次暂停。而且下班后还在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Earlier this year, GameStop stock had an epic short squeeze, orchestrated by a group on Reddit called Wallstreetbets. This group noticed that&nbsp;short interest&nbsp;for GameStop stock was over 100%. With a clever combination of buying common shares and call options (called a&nbsp;gamma squeeze), the group was able to cause the price per share to go up, forcing many short-sellers to close their positions for massive losses.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，Reddit上一个名为Wallstreetbets的组织精心策划了游戏驿站股票的大规模轧空。该小组注意到游戏驿站股票的空头兴趣超过100%。通过购买普通股和看涨期权期权（称为伽马挤压）的巧妙组合，该集团能够导致每股价格上涨，迫使许多卖空者平仓，蒙受巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p> When the dust from the short squeeze settled, short interest for GameStop stock plummeted. Only about 40% of the float was shorted as of Jan. 29. More recent data isn't available yet to know what it is exactly today. But the decline in short interest appeared to mark the end of the GameStop saga. The stock fell roughly 90% from peak highs.</p><p><blockquote>当轧空尘埃落定后，游戏驿站股票的空头兴趣直线下降。截至1月29日，只有约40%的流通量被做空。目前还没有更多的数据来知道它今天到底是什么。但空头兴趣的下降似乎标志着游戏驿站传奇的结束。该股较峰值下跌约90%。</blockquote></p><p> Except, apparently, everyone simply regrouped for round two.</p><p><blockquote>除了，很明显，每个人都只是在第二轮重新集结。</blockquote></p><p> Traders were out in full force late this afternoon, bidding GameStop stock back up. To be clear, 40% short interest is still significant enough to spark a mini&nbsp;short squeeze. However, it's possible shorts decided to short GameStop again, thinking it was all over. After all, the stock was still trading more than 10 times where it traded before all of this began. If short interest has increased any since Jan. 29, then this could be a wild ride yet again.</p><p><blockquote>今天下午晚些时候，交易员全力以赴，竞标游戏驿站股票。需要明确的是，40%的空头兴趣仍然足以引发迷你轧空。然而，空头可能决定再次做空游戏驿站，认为一切都结束了。毕竟，该股的交易价格仍是这一切开始前的10倍以上。如果自1月29日以来空头兴趣有所增加，那么这可能会再次成为一场疯狂的旅程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> Last time, many GameStop bulls felt cheated because of the trading restrictions Robinhood and other brokerages put on the stock. In a recent interview with Dave Portnoy, Robinhood's CEO said it moved to restrict trading because it feared an impending liquidity issue if it didn't act.&nbsp;Since then, the company has raised a lot of money, seemingly mitigating this risk. Considering all the negative press it received last time, it's fair to wonder if Robinhood would restrict the buying of GameStop stock again. If it doesn't, it will be interesting to watch just how high GameStop stock can fly.</p><p><blockquote>上次，由于Robinhood和其他券商对该股施加的交易限制，许多游戏驿站多头感到被骗了。在最近接受戴夫·波特诺伊（Dave Portnoy）采访时，Robinhood的首席执行官表示，它采取行动限制交易，因为它担心如果不采取行动，流动性问题即将到来。自那以后，该公司筹集了大量资金，似乎减轻了这种风险。考虑到上次收到的所有负面新闻，人们有理由怀疑罗宾汉是否会再次限制购买游戏驿站股票。如果没有，看看游戏驿站股票能飞多高将会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> For me, I'll be watching with interest. But I'm not a GameStop stock buyer today. When I invest, I'm looking for strong companies with long runways for growth. GameStop doesn't fit that description for me.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，我会饶有兴趣地观看。但我今天不是游戏驿站股票买家。当我投资时，我会寻找具有长期增长空间的强大公司。游戏驿站不符合我的描述。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/24/heres-why-gamestop-stock-just-exploded-higher/\">Motley Fool </a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/24/heres-why-gamestop-stock-just-exploded-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162365074","content_text":"Everyone is gearing up for short squeeze 2.0.\nWhat happened\nShares of GameStop were trading moderately higher on Wednesday until about 1 p.m. EST, when they started gaining a little momentum. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, the stock absolutely exploded higher. Trading was halted several times as it rapidly climbed to finish 104% higher for the day. And it's still climbing after hours.\nSo what\nEarlier this year, GameStop stock had an epic short squeeze, orchestrated by a group on Reddit called Wallstreetbets. This group noticed that short interest for GameStop stock was over 100%. With a clever combination of buying common shares and call options (called a gamma squeeze), the group was able to cause the price per share to go up, forcing many short-sellers to close their positions for massive losses.\nWhen the dust from the short squeeze settled, short interest for GameStop stock plummeted. Only about 40% of the float was shorted as of Jan. 29. More recent data isn't available yet to know what it is exactly today. But the decline in short interest appeared to mark the end of the GameStop saga. The stock fell roughly 90% from peak highs.\nExcept, apparently, everyone simply regrouped for round two.\nTraders were out in full force late this afternoon, bidding GameStop stock back up. To be clear, 40% short interest is still significant enough to spark a mini short squeeze. However, it's possible shorts decided to short GameStop again, thinking it was all over. After all, the stock was still trading more than 10 times where it traded before all of this began. If short interest has increased any since Jan. 29, then this could be a wild ride yet again.\nNow what\nLast time, many GameStop bulls felt cheated because of the trading restrictions Robinhood and other brokerages put on the stock. In a recent interview with Dave Portnoy, Robinhood's CEO said it moved to restrict trading because it feared an impending liquidity issue if it didn't act. Since then, the company has raised a lot of money, seemingly mitigating this risk. Considering all the negative press it received last time, it's fair to wonder if Robinhood would restrict the buying of GameStop stock again. If it doesn't, it will be interesting to watch just how high GameStop stock can fly.\nFor me, I'll be watching with interest. But I'm not a GameStop stock buyer today. When I invest, I'm looking for strong companies with long runways for growth. GameStop doesn't fit that description for me.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363273016,"gmtCreate":1614146902135,"gmtModify":1634550982664,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363273016","repostId":"1111682954","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111682954","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614143481,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111682954?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 13:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111682954","media":"Barrons","summary":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold","content":"<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近的盈利太好了，不容忽视，如果经济出现正确的发展，它们可能会比目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标普500指数2021年目标价从4,200美元上调至4,300美元。这意味着策略师预计该指数到今年年底将较当前水平上涨11%以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计将达到4,400美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但看涨有真正的价值。瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)写道：“随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，预计2021年GDP将比过去35年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。”，在笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度每股收益总额超出分析师预期17%，而且绝大多数公司已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>对盈利的较高预期通常会导致股票价格上涨。Golub将标普500每股收益的总体宏观预期从2021年的175美元上调至185美元，从2022年的200美元上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不关心公司对第四季度盈利的预期相形见绌。理由是，结果并不重要，因为如果Covid-19疫苗不能如期推出或不能充分免疫新毒株，当地经济将无法重新开放，收入将崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day&nbsp;and&nbsp;trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&amp;P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，疫苗每天都有数百万只手臂，预计还会有数万亿美元的额外财政刺激来支持需求。就在几周前，本季度的盈利预期还低于第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与Covid-19相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022年每股收益为198美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub预计，到今年年底，该指数的市盈率将略高于2022年总市盈率的20倍。这低于目前未来12个月盈利预期的约22倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。较高的收益率使得持有股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与可能推高股价的盈利改善是一致的。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，美联储加息过高、过快的决定将给经济和股票估值带来风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。由于股市在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 13:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近的盈利太好了，不容忽视，如果经济出现正确的发展，它们可能会比目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标普500指数2021年目标价从4,200美元上调至4,300美元。这意味着策略师预计该指数到今年年底将较当前水平上涨11%以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计将达到4,400美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但看涨有真正的价值。瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)写道：“随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，预计2021年GDP将比过去35年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。”，在笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度每股收益总额超出分析师预期17%，而且绝大多数公司已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>对盈利的较高预期通常会导致股票价格上涨。Golub将标普500每股收益的总体宏观预期从2021年的175美元上调至185美元，从2022年的200美元上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不关心公司对第四季度盈利的预期相形见绌。理由是，结果并不重要，因为如果Covid-19疫苗不能如期推出或不能充分免疫新毒株，当地经济将无法重新开放，收入将崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day&nbsp;and&nbsp;trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&amp;P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，疫苗每天都有数百万只手臂，预计还会有数万亿美元的额外财政刺激来支持需求。就在几周前，本季度的盈利预期还低于第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与Covid-19相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022年每股收益为198美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub预计，到今年年底，该指数的市盈率将略高于2022年总市盈率的20倍。这低于目前未来12个月盈利预期的约22倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。较高的收益率使得持有股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与可能推高股价的盈利改善是一致的。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，美联储加息过高、过快的决定将给经济和股票估值带来风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。由于股市在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111682954","content_text":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.\nCredit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.\nBut the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.\nHe argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.\nHigher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.\nAt first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.\nBut now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.\nThe next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.\nLower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.\nBut the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.\nNone of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.\nStill, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363279767,"gmtCreate":1614146882459,"gmtModify":1634550982784,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363279767","repostId":"1197530704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353289995,"gmtCreate":1616501004317,"gmtModify":1634525510881,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>Below $100 to start buying","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$</a>Below $100 to start buying","text":"$Futu Holdings Limited(FUTU)$Below $100 to start buying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353289995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320257832,"gmtCreate":1615125527026,"gmtModify":1703484872621,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>looking at $68","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>looking at $68","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$looking at $68","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320257832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351524538,"gmtCreate":1616606285924,"gmtModify":1631883800829,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>drop to $70 also possible","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>drop to $70 also possible","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$drop to $70 also possible","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351524538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358447463,"gmtCreate":1616725680252,"gmtModify":1634524338935,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358447463","repostId":"1176747936","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363279767,"gmtCreate":1614146882459,"gmtModify":1634550982784,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip","listText":"Buy the dip","text":"Buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363279767","repostId":"1197530704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":754,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384101092,"gmtCreate":1613621314316,"gmtModify":1634552907570,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I orefer gold and silver","listText":"I orefer gold and silver","text":"I orefer gold and silver","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384101092","repostId":"1188127819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324657813,"gmtCreate":1615991040632,"gmtModify":1703496081648,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Drop to $15 then consider","listText":"Drop to $15 then consider","text":"Drop to $15 then consider","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324657813","repostId":"1179894269","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322338252,"gmtCreate":1615772748676,"gmtModify":1703492715840,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tesla","listText":"Tesla","text":"Tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322338252","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港证券交易所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港证券交易所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352253009,"gmtCreate":1616980209701,"gmtModify":1634523343459,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","listText":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","text":"They should stop listing in US and just go to HKEX.Pls LIKE! Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352253009","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389950374,"gmtCreate":1612669592498,"gmtModify":1703764203942,"author":{"id":"3572665963519262","authorId":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorIdStr":"3572665963519262"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIK\">$Gigcapital3 Inc(GIK)$</a>On its way to merger!https://twitter.com/timreeser/status/1357204679575314438?s=19","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GIK\">$Gigcapital3 Inc(GIK)$</a>On its way to merger!https://twitter.com/timreeser/status/1357204679575314438?s=19","text":"$Gigcapital3 Inc(GIK)$On its way to merger!https://twitter.com/timreeser/status/1357204679575314438?s=19","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389950374","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}