takleee的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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0勋章

2021-08-24

nice

@小虎周报:美股周策略：QE减量渐行渐近，对美股、美债影响如何？

2021-08-01

$Pfizer(PFE)$@爱发红包的虎妞看不到财政报报告

2021-07-30

@爱发红包的虎妞看不到这个新闻。请帮忙

@节点财经:市值蒸发超6000亿，中国平安还能守住万亿市值吗？

2021-07-28

已投

@空军大队长:兄弟们麻烦给我们投一下票，在评论区截图奖金给你，分别是空间大队长，柳下惠的气质，少帅铁柱$好未来(TAL)$$新东方(EDU)$$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$@我是股神的小腿毛 @我是股神的小腿毛 @柳下惠的气质 @小虎通知

2021-07-28

@小虎活动你好

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-26

Nice

GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>

2021-07-10

Cool

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2021-07-10

Like and comment

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-02

nice please like and comment

Tesla Q2 2021 produced and delivered over 200,000 vehicles<blockquote>特斯拉2021年Q2生产交付超20万辆</blockquote>

2021-07-01

Thanks

2021-06-29

Please like n comment

Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>

2021-06-29

Nice

Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>

2021-06-25

Nice please like and comment

Luminar stock dips after mixed Q1 report with wider than exp<blockquote>Luminar股价在第一季度报告好坏参半且涨幅高于预期后下跌</blockquote>

2021-06-21

//@dandan_4896: Omg bb !!! I won the giveaway voucher again👍 nice

Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up<blockquote>普拉格能源：这只股票未能让我们充电</blockquote>

2021-06-20

Please like and comment

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-16

Do we get to buy the shares???

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2021-06-14

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$to the moon [财迷]

2021-06-14

Boring

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2021-06-14

Boring...

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-14

Hello please like and cooment

抱歉，原内容已删除

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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 不过，关于减量并非没有分歧。曾最早喊出缩减QE、并呼吁明年就加息的达拉斯联储行长卡普兰，就在上周谈到不排除因新冠变异毒株Delta病毒而调整他对未来货币政策看法。 此前，卡普兰呼吁，美联储应该尽早以渐进方式缩减资产购买计划，大规模购债可能导致过度冒险。我们从疫情演变来看，过去一个月，美国新冠确诊新增人数整体还在攀升，经济复苏路径不确定性升温后，确实不排除会打乱美联储原本的缩表节奏。这意味着QE减量的话题，无论其最终如何演变，大概率都会是接下来影响资产波动的主要因素。从预期角度来看，本周五开始的全球央行年会（含鲍威尔讲话），9月初的非农数据窗口，9月底FOMC会议都有可能是投资者观察QE减量预期变化的重要窗口。减量对美股、美债的影响如何？ 虽然这次减量预期，未来只是增量的减少，并非绝对量的下降（可以预见，从目前每月1200亿美元的债券购买规模开始缩减，美联储还是会继续缓慢扩大8.2万亿美元的资产负债表），但对资产价格的影响仍不能忽视。 我们注意到，自从08年金融危机后，在QE退出阶段，随着流动性的逐步抽离，美股大多都经历了一定长时间的震荡。（如下图所示）关于减量对美债收益率的影响，我们认为可能先扬后抑。 因为一旦减量，随着美联储对债券规模购买下","text":"未来一个月将会是减量预期影响美股的重要窗口期 上周联邦公开市场委员会发布了7月27-28日会议纪要显示：“多数美联储官员上月认为，今年晚些时候可以开始放慢债券购买速度，并判断在实现通胀目标方面已取得足够进展，在实现就业目标上也有了进步。”这算是第一次明确提出减量操作可能在不远的未来进行。 我们反看近期的美股市场也几乎进入盘整格局，这也初步验证了我们对于随着美股季报结束，盈利上修已难以支撑市场的判断。$标普500(.SPX)$ 不过，关于减量并非没有分歧。曾最早喊出缩减QE、并呼吁明年就加息的达拉斯联储行长卡普兰，就在上周谈到不排除因新冠变异毒株Delta病毒而调整他对未来货币政策看法。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞</a>看不到财政报报告","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞</a>看不到财政报报告","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$@爱发红包的虎妞看不到财政报报告","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805097606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":808270767,"gmtCreate":1627598980759,"gmtModify":1633758022012,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞</a>看不到这个新闻。请帮忙","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞</a>看不到这个新闻。请帮忙","text":"@爱发红包的虎妞看不到这个新闻。请帮忙","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808270767","repostId":"800939315","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":800939315,"gmtCreate":1627270255537,"gmtModify":1627271143778,"author":{"id":"3539674289973208","authorId":"3539674289973208","name":"节点财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc4a2c77823eb34200081e30d39a4d3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539674289973208","idStr":"3539674289973208"},"themes":[],"title":"市值蒸发超6000亿，中国平安还能守住万亿市值吗？","htmlText":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经最近一段时间，不管是大盘是涨是跌，中国平安（601318.SH）的表现都相当稳定，那就是不断的下跌。从去年11月30日高点的94.62元/股算起，中国平安累计跌幅近40%，市值蒸发超6000亿元，占同期申万保险板块市值缩水量的一半以上，相当于跌没了一个海康威视！图源：WIND数据随着中国平安股价一路走低，投资者们坐不住了，类似“中国平安股票现在可以买吗？”、“中国平安还有下跌空间吗？”、“平安还有投资价值吗？”的讨论日渐激烈。作为大金融保险龙头标杆之一，市场倚重的白马股，中国平安咋就不香了？风起于青萍之末，浪成于微澜之间，一切亦有迹可循。/ 01 /从千亿资产到万亿资产平安在不涨和大涨间摇摆时间拨回到上世纪80年代，将近而立之年的马明哲跟着淘金大潮来到了深圳蛇口——中国改革开放最早的“试验田”。在这里，他当过工人，做过通讯员，最终落脚社保公司，为日后的职业生涯积累经验。经过两年多打拼，马明哲越发意识到当时我国保险制度的不合时宜和滞后性，他提出模仿香港，走商业保险的路子，将雇主责任险转变为工伤保险，从新的险种入手，避免原来雇主缴纳的保险金贬值。但这一提议很快就被以“工伤保险属于商业保险模式，不在社保公司的经营范围”为由遭到拒绝。彼时，开创一家新型保险公司的念头在马明哲心里扎下了根。此后几年，他忙于递交申请，修改材料，奔波于让想法成为现实。1988年，改革开放带来保险业政策松动的机会，在时任蛇口工业区总指挥袁庚的支持下，以及马明哲不懈的沟通与努力下，中国第一家股份制、地方性的保险企业，即深圳平安保险公司成立，马明哲担任总经理。1994年，平安引入外部投资者高盛和摩根士丹利，借助外资更加精细的管理方式和市场化原则，业务规模迅速扩大，寿险业务超越友邦，证券、信托、期货业务逐步组建和营运。到2001年，中国平安总资产已达1087亿元，营收415.47亿元","listText":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经最近一段时间，不管是大盘是涨是跌，中国平安（601318.SH）的表现都相当稳定，那就是不断的下跌。从去年11月30日高点的94.62元/股算起，中国平安累计跌幅近40%，市值蒸发超6000亿元，占同期申万保险板块市值缩水量的一半以上，相当于跌没了一个海康威视！图源：WIND数据随着中国平安股价一路走低，投资者们坐不住了，类似“中国平安股票现在可以买吗？”、“中国平安还有下跌空间吗？”、“平安还有投资价值吗？”的讨论日渐激烈。作为大金融保险龙头标杆之一，市场倚重的白马股，中国平安咋就不香了？风起于青萍之末，浪成于微澜之间，一切亦有迹可循。/ 01 /从千亿资产到万亿资产平安在不涨和大涨间摇摆时间拨回到上世纪80年代，将近而立之年的马明哲跟着淘金大潮来到了深圳蛇口——中国改革开放最早的“试验田”。在这里，他当过工人，做过通讯员，最终落脚社保公司，为日后的职业生涯积累经验。经过两年多打拼，马明哲越发意识到当时我国保险制度的不合时宜和滞后性，他提出模仿香港，走商业保险的路子，将雇主责任险转变为工伤保险，从新的险种入手，避免原来雇主缴纳的保险金贬值。但这一提议很快就被以“工伤保险属于商业保险模式，不在社保公司的经营范围”为由遭到拒绝。彼时，开创一家新型保险公司的念头在马明哲心里扎下了根。此后几年，他忙于递交申请，修改材料，奔波于让想法成为现实。1988年，改革开放带来保险业政策松动的机会，在时任蛇口工业区总指挥袁庚的支持下，以及马明哲不懈的沟通与努力下，中国第一家股份制、地方性的保险企业，即深圳平安保险公司成立，马明哲担任总经理。1994年，平安引入外部投资者高盛和摩根士丹利，借助外资更加精细的管理方式和市场化原则，业务规模迅速扩大，寿险业务超越友邦，证券、信托、期货业务逐步组建和营运。到2001年，中国平安总资产已达1087亿元，营收415.47亿元","text":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经最近一段时间，不管是大盘是涨是跌，中国平安（601318.SH）的表现都相当稳定，那就是不断的下跌。从去年11月30日高点的94.62元/股算起，中国平安累计跌幅近40%，市值蒸发超6000亿元，占同期申万保险板块市值缩水量的一半以上，相当于跌没了一个海康威视！图源：WIND数据随着中国平安股价一路走低，投资者们坐不住了，类似“中国平安股票现在可以买吗？”、“中国平安还有下跌空间吗？”、“平安还有投资价值吗？”的讨论日渐激烈。作为大金融保险龙头标杆之一，市场倚重的白马股，中国平安咋就不香了？风起于青萍之末，浪成于微澜之间，一切亦有迹可循。/ 01 /从千亿资产到万亿资产平安在不涨和大涨间摇摆时间拨回到上世纪80年代，将近而立之年的马明哲跟着淘金大潮来到了深圳蛇口——中国改革开放最早的“试验田”。在这里，他当过工人，做过通讯员，最终落脚社保公司，为日后的职业生涯积累经验。经过两年多打拼，马明哲越发意识到当时我国保险制度的不合时宜和滞后性，他提出模仿香港，走商业保险的路子，将雇主责任险转变为工伤保险，从新的险种入手，避免原来雇主缴纳的保险金贬值。但这一提议很快就被以“工伤保险属于商业保险模式，不在社保公司的经营范围”为由遭到拒绝。彼时，开创一家新型保险公司的念头在马明哲心里扎下了根。此后几年，他忙于递交申请，修改材料，奔波于让想法成为现实。1988年，改革开放带来保险业政策松动的机会，在时任蛇口工业区总指挥袁庚的支持下，以及马明哲不懈的沟通与努力下，中国第一家股份制、地方性的保险企业，即深圳平安保险公司成立，马明哲担任总经理。1994年，平安引入外部投资者高盛和摩根士丹利，借助外资更加精细的管理方式和市场化原则，业务规模迅速扩大，寿险业务超越友邦，证券、信托、期货业务逐步组建和营运。到2001年，中国平安总资产已达1087亿元，营收415.47亿元","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dba1335fb343c1d06e07bb41b94f73b"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45eba3f480847d05dc0d8eebca3bbfb"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34ee0a0c54d217fff8f60226dab08398"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800939315","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801957557,"gmtCreate":1627480778279,"gmtModify":1633764602763,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已投","listText":"已投","text":"已投","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801957557","repostId":"803570349","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":803570349,"gmtCreate":1627452190981,"gmtModify":1627457774578,"author":{"id":"74125836878304","authorId":"74125836878304","name":"空军大队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491ac6b2de4e6f00b0c07853ca1c186b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"74125836878304","idStr":"74125836878304"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"兄弟们麻烦给我们投一下票，在评论区截图奖金给你，分别是空间大队长，柳下惠的气质，少帅铁柱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YANG\">$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20733756400840\">@我是股神的小腿毛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20733756400840\">@我是股神的小腿毛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/27853154588556\">@柳下惠的气质</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/37000856390400\">@小虎通知</a>","listText":"兄弟们麻烦给我们投一下票，在评论区截图奖金给你，分别是空间大队长，柳下惠的气质，少帅铁柱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YANG\">$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20733756400840\">@我是股神的小腿毛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20733756400840\">@我是股神的小腿毛</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/27853154588556\">@柳下惠的气质</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/37000856390400\">@小虎通知</a>","text":"兄弟们麻烦给我们投一下票，在评论区截图奖金给你，分别是空间大队长，柳下惠的气质，少帅铁柱$好未来(TAL)$$新东方(EDU)$$三倍做空FTSE中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$@我是股神的小腿毛@我是股神的小腿毛@柳下惠的气质@小虎通知","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3da36756264472532e5ffa8a71116576","width":"1131","height":"1093"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803570349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801922474,"gmtCreate":1627480320398,"gmtModify":1633764611276,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36984908995200\">@小虎活动</a>你好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/36984908995200\">@小虎活动</a>你好","text":"@小虎活动你好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801922474","repostId":"1193811590","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800649063,"gmtCreate":1627300979052,"gmtModify":1633766387431,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800649063","repostId":"1193811590","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193811590","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627298505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193811590?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193811590","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.</li>  <li>The influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.</li>  <li>But GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.</li>  <li>Unless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef42c790928444bac7fd163c42e706\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Brandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站利用其臭名昭著的轧空机会，通过发行股票筹集了超过15亿美元的资金。</li><li>现金的涌入和激进投资者的参与让该股的基本面重新燃起了一些希望。</li><li>但游戏驿站的最终灭亡只是被推迟了。物理媒体正在衰落，无盘游戏机不可避免，该公司未能多元化进入任何增长行业。</li><li>除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则请远离。任何预计游戏驿站股价在两年多后会大幅上涨的人都在希望出现奇迹。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>布兰迪·里昂摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GME狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> The short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.</p><p><blockquote>1月份游戏驿站(GME)从20美元升至480美元高点的轧空持续时间令人印象深刻。在跌至50美元区间后，近5个月来一直保持在100美元以上。迄今为止，游戏驿站已利用这一优势筹集了15亿美元现金。</blockquote></p><p> That's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;they raised.</p><p><blockquote>这超过了他们年初的全部市值，所以他们的地位确实有了显着改善。他们偿还了大部分长期债务，下面的图表甚至没有反映他们最近筹集的11亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2494b2f5466e9ef18884e8a5cf42531b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Their immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.</p><p><blockquote>他们眼前的未来已经确定，但长期前景没有改变。除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则没有理由认为GME的基本面价值可以走高。他们拥有的约20亿美元现金远不及他们130亿美元的市值。为了弥补这一差距，你需要相信他们的业务价值数十亿美元，但它目前正在消亡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务</b></blockquote></p><p> GameStop's&nbsp;core business&nbsp;is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站的核心业务是视频游戏硬件和软件（主要是实体光盘），其余11%的收入来自收藏品。</blockquote></p><p> Physical videogame discs have been&nbsp;in decline&nbsp;for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the&nbsp;start&nbsp;of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).</p><p><blockquote>实体视频游戏光盘的衰落与DVD电影的原因相同——直接数字下载正在取代它们。在2013年PS4/Xbox One一代开始时，大约10%的游戏机销售是数字的。到2017年，这一比例为50/50，到2019年为63%，到2020年为72%（可能受到疫情的推动）。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.</p><p><blockquote>他们的收入趋势似乎跟随实体游戏的下降。你还可以看到在疫情关闭商店之前，业绩就在恶化。你可以将这种表现归咎于游戏机周期的季节性（2013年推出第四代，2020年推出第五代），但尽管毛利率萎缩，收入仍低于上一个后期游戏机周期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57826163b427cb331296fa83656d0ab5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not Exactly Like Blockbuster</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不太像百视达</b></blockquote></p><p> The trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.</p><p><blockquote>实体游戏的趋势是游戏驿站未来的最大因素，因此值得分析消费者和游戏机制造商转向数字游戏的动机。索尼(SONY)的PlayStation和微软(MSFT)的Xbox都在最新一代游戏机中首次发布了无光盘版本。它们比标准版本便宜100美元，并有可能为所有游戏机都放弃光盘驱动器的未来打开大门。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2de24c967d3874247ed82241f996ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: PlayStation.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：PlayStation.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们应该考虑对消费者的好处。他们转向数字游戏的速度可能已经显示了他们的偏好，但实体游戏仍然有优势。与下载不同，您可以将光盘转售或赠送给他人。对于二手游戏，游戏驿站提供退货服务，这样你就可以尝试一款游戏，如果你不喜欢它，可以在7天内退货。PlayStation和Xbox通常不允许他们的数字商店退货，除非有购买错误。最后一个好处是光盘存储数据，这节省了控制台硬盘上的一些空间。</blockquote></p><p> The case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.</p><p><blockquote>数字游戏的情况类似于流媒体和DVD。避开商店，直接从你的主机下载游戏。虽然下载时间可能会抵消这种好处，但有新的改进允许玩家在游戏发布前一天晚上下载或预下载游戏时访问游戏的一部分。您也不必担心存储和切换物理光盘，可以登录您的帐户，从不同的主机访问您的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Console Makers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏机制造商</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Console developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机开发者比消费者更有动力推动数字下载。他们可以通过游戏机上的数字商店向消费者销售游戏，这将游戏驿站等零售商排除在外。他们可以保留更多利润或为游戏玩家提供更好的折扣。还有一个考虑是，价格低100美元的游戏机与PC或任天堂Switch等替代品相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> A significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month&nbsp;Xbox Game Pass&nbsp;that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.</p><p><blockquote>对实体游戏的一个重大但被忽视的威胁是PlayStation和Xbox都提供的负担得起的游戏订阅服务。二手游戏的最大优势是，它们可以卖给第一个消费者，所以你可以找到大量负担得起的、稍微旧一点的二手游戏，并在完成后从中赚钱。但我建议，像每月15美元的Xbox Game Pass这样的服务可以比二手游戏更好地满足以价值为导向的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcff87c4810c6ece2b99d70a7dd05ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.</p><p><blockquote>如果开发者提供对他们的旧目录的负担得起的访问，游戏玩家就不需要担心负担得起的二手游戏。这对开发商来说是有意义的，因为他们无论如何都不会从二手游戏销售中赚钱。通过让玩家玩旧游戏，他们可能会被说服购买最新的续集或付费DLC。</blockquote></p><p> Another argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.</p><p><blockquote>磁盘驱动器的另一个论点是向后兼容以前的控制台。这一点完全不成立，因为新一代游戏机是数字向后兼容的，允许用户将他们从老一代购买的游戏转移到新游戏机上。</blockquote></p><p> An additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.</p><p><blockquote>另一个争论是，光盘驱动器将继续存在，因为它们也可以用作蓝光播放器。事实是，DVD/蓝光远不如实体游戏重要。从Q2 2020年开始的过去四个季度，DVD/蓝光销售额从2010年的100亿美元下降到不到30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，购买一台数字游戏机的100美元折扣足以购买一台独立的蓝光播放器，这样观众就可以去其他地方，如果他们不想要游戏机，就不会有动力去购买游戏机。另一种说法是，失去蓝光功能不应该影响对游戏机的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都没有放弃光盘驱动器，也可能不会放弃下一代光盘驱动器，最大的原因是他们担心竞争会接管零售分销渠道。2020年，72%的主机软件销售额是数字化的，这一数字只会随着时间的推移而增长，但即使是剩下的28%也仍然有意义。如果他们中只有一个放弃了光盘驱动器，竞争对手可以保留它，并成为唯一在游戏驿站和其他零售商销售的人。因此，这两款游戏机都有可能保留光盘驱动器，直到物理光盘真正成为市场的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uncertain Future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站面临的问题是，即使游戏机制造商不试图在新一代中淘汰光盘，市场也在萎缩，而且已经萎缩了十多年。游戏驿站在他们的市场上也不是唯一的，因为你可以在沃尔玛、塔吉特、百思买、亚马逊买同样的产品（二手游戏除外），甚至在易贝和其他网站上买到二手游戏。</blockquote></p><p> With so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此多的竞争对手，游戏驿站试图通过提供更好的服务和拥有知识渊博的员工来脱颖而出。但他们自己的激进投资者瑞安·科恩(Ryan Cohen)发现商店的货架上布满灰尘，客户服务差，货架空空如也。听起来，游戏驿站将不得不花钱让她们的零售体验达到标准。当这么多优秀的零售商以同样的价格销售同样的产品时，很难脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> Even thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.</p><p><blockquote>即使是2020年三分之一的销售额来自电子商务，也必须与亚马逊和所有其他电子商务平台竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfc710890a2903c5e849489bb962a26\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd6b6ac51b05627bb8d471a954b385c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.</p><p><blockquote>你可以在亚马逊或Walmart.com上找到完全相同的游戏，与游戏驿站的2-5天运输相比，这两个游戏实际上有1天和2天运输。在线销售的护城河甚至可能不如零售，因为购买体验非常相似，而游戏驿站永远不会拥有亚马逊那样的分销和营销规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base could<i>become</i>since they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于游戏驿站的零售店基础<i>成为</i>因为他们是最大的专门从事视频游戏的零售品牌，仍然拥有4000多家商店。问题是，自2014年开始关闭商店以来，游戏驿站有多年的尝试，当时的首席执行官表示，他们将扩展到“与游戏相关的技术领域”。这些年来，他们试图销售复古/经典视频游戏，但未能推出游戏订阅服务，并做出了许多改变业务的承诺。2019年，即将离任的首席执行官George Sherman表示，他的游戏驿站2.0计划将把商店变成一种“文化体验”，一个“在购买前闲逛和尝试游戏”的地方。Ryan Cohen关于糟糕的零售体验和销售额持续下降的报告表明，到目前为止，他们的尝试都没有奏效。如果有一种方法可以改变他们的商店，以应对视频游戏数字化的挑战，你会认为他们的一位首席执行官在过去十年中找到了这种方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> A long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站这样成功的希望渺茫的公司在深度价值价格下具有投资潜力，但180美元/股的情况显然并非如此。他们的企业价值为11B美元，但自2018年以来没有显着的FCF或EBITDA，并且随着时间的推移，他们的市场将继续萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141ee00d085dd23d918a860df10739d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站的交易价格是大多数可比股票估值的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> Best Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.</p><p><blockquote>百思买(BBY)多年来一直在增长，盈利稳定，但EV/销售额为0.5，而游戏驿站为2.1。塔吉特(TGT)和其他零售业领导者的EV/销售额低于1.5，显然不像游戏驿站那样对其业务构成生存威胁。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站需要盈利能力大幅好转才能证明这一估值的合理性。随着他们的核心市场迅速萎缩，迄今为止每一次多元化尝试都失败了，该股似乎被严重高估，如果他们不能盈利，该业务可能几乎一文不值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Still Isn't A Short</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GME仍然不是空头</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该股的高估令人信服，但它似乎并不是一个令人信服的空头。根据其业务状况，游戏驿站的估值没有理由高于每股100美元，但这并没有阻止其在最初的挤压后几个月内保持在该范围以上。如果没有明确的催化剂或想法来最终使股价符合其业务现实（这可能需要数年时间），我将远离空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> If GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.</p><p><blockquote>如果游戏驿站在股价高企时巧妙地增加股票发行次数，他们可能会带来数十亿美元的额外现金。自6月份发行10亿美元ATM以来，股价一直保持不变，因此他们或许能够更进一步。以180美元/股的价格，每出售10亿美元的股票可带来每股约14美元的现金，而目前每股约为27美元。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，足够多的股票发行可能会压低股价，但如果该股同时飙升至400美元以上或以上的高点，任何做空该股的人都有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Even if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.</p><p><blockquote>即使GME股价不再达到这些高点，它们也可能会在当前水平附近停留一段时间。出于我在关于Robinhood的文章中概述的原因，越来越多的赌徒进入股市。GME仍然是最臭名昭著的模因股票，纯粹的投机兴趣可能会使股价在很长一段时间内保持在这个范围内。耐心而谨慎的卖空者也许能够管理头寸以获得可观的回报，但不确定性和波动性应该会鼓励大多数投资者远离任何一方的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.</p><p><blockquote>GME股票的模因将在某个时候遇到游戏驿站业务恶化和估值过高的现实。股票发行带来的数十亿美元将偿还他们的债务并使他们在短期内继续经营，但几乎不可能证明目前130亿美元的估值是合理的。各方面的竞争以及在衰退的市场中缺乏任何差异化将阻止他们获得可观的资本回报。该业务最终将被定价为生存受到威胁且几乎无法盈利的零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> If you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.</p><p><blockquote>如果你不同意，欢迎在下面分享你的想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 19:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.</li>  <li>The influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.</li>  <li>But GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.</li>  <li>Unless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef42c790928444bac7fd163c42e706\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Brandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站利用其臭名昭著的轧空机会，通过发行股票筹集了超过15亿美元的资金。</li><li>现金的涌入和激进投资者的参与让该股的基本面重新燃起了一些希望。</li><li>但游戏驿站的最终灭亡只是被推迟了。物理媒体正在衰落，无盘游戏机不可避免，该公司未能多元化进入任何增长行业。</li><li>除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则请远离。任何预计游戏驿站股价在两年多后会大幅上涨的人都在希望出现奇迹。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>布兰迪·里昂摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GME狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> The short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.</p><p><blockquote>1月份游戏驿站(GME)从20美元升至480美元高点的轧空持续时间令人印象深刻。在跌至50美元区间后，近5个月来一直保持在100美元以上。迄今为止，游戏驿站已利用这一优势筹集了15亿美元现金。</blockquote></p><p> That's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;they raised.</p><p><blockquote>这超过了他们年初的全部市值，所以他们的地位确实有了显着改善。他们偿还了大部分长期债务，下面的图表甚至没有反映他们最近筹集的11亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2494b2f5466e9ef18884e8a5cf42531b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Their immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.</p><p><blockquote>他们眼前的未来已经确定，但长期前景没有改变。除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则没有理由认为GME的基本面价值可以走高。他们拥有的约20亿美元现金远不及他们130亿美元的市值。为了弥补这一差距，你需要相信他们的业务价值数十亿美元，但它目前正在消亡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务</b></blockquote></p><p> GameStop's&nbsp;core business&nbsp;is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站的核心业务是视频游戏硬件和软件（主要是实体光盘），其余11%的收入来自收藏品。</blockquote></p><p> Physical videogame discs have been&nbsp;in decline&nbsp;for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the&nbsp;start&nbsp;of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).</p><p><blockquote>实体视频游戏光盘的衰落与DVD电影的原因相同——直接数字下载正在取代它们。在2013年PS4/Xbox One一代开始时，大约10%的游戏机销售是数字的。到2017年，这一比例为50/50，到2019年为63%，到2020年为72%（可能受到疫情的推动）。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.</p><p><blockquote>他们的收入趋势似乎跟随实体游戏的下降。你还可以看到在疫情关闭商店之前，业绩就在恶化。你可以将这种表现归咎于游戏机周期的季节性（2013年推出第四代，2020年推出第五代），但尽管毛利率萎缩，收入仍低于上一个后期游戏机周期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57826163b427cb331296fa83656d0ab5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not Exactly Like Blockbuster</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不太像百视达</b></blockquote></p><p> The trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.</p><p><blockquote>实体游戏的趋势是游戏驿站未来的最大因素，因此值得分析消费者和游戏机制造商转向数字游戏的动机。索尼(SONY)的PlayStation和微软(MSFT)的Xbox都在最新一代游戏机中首次发布了无光盘版本。它们比标准版本便宜100美元，并有可能为所有游戏机都放弃光盘驱动器的未来打开大门。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2de24c967d3874247ed82241f996ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: PlayStation.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：PlayStation.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们应该考虑对消费者的好处。他们转向数字游戏的速度可能已经显示了他们的偏好，但实体游戏仍然有优势。与下载不同，您可以将光盘转售或赠送给他人。对于二手游戏，游戏驿站提供退货服务，这样你就可以尝试一款游戏，如果你不喜欢它，可以在7天内退货。PlayStation和Xbox通常不允许他们的数字商店退货，除非有购买错误。最后一个好处是光盘存储数据，这节省了控制台硬盘上的一些空间。</blockquote></p><p> The case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.</p><p><blockquote>数字游戏的情况类似于流媒体和DVD。避开商店，直接从你的主机下载游戏。虽然下载时间可能会抵消这种好处，但有新的改进允许玩家在游戏发布前一天晚上下载或预下载游戏时访问游戏的一部分。您也不必担心存储和切换物理光盘，可以登录您的帐户，从不同的主机访问您的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Console Makers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏机制造商</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Console developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机开发者比消费者更有动力推动数字下载。他们可以通过游戏机上的数字商店向消费者销售游戏，这将游戏驿站等零售商排除在外。他们可以保留更多利润或为游戏玩家提供更好的折扣。还有一个考虑是，价格低100美元的游戏机与PC或任天堂Switch等替代品相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> A significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month&nbsp;Xbox Game Pass&nbsp;that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.</p><p><blockquote>对实体游戏的一个重大但被忽视的威胁是PlayStation和Xbox都提供的负担得起的游戏订阅服务。二手游戏的最大优势是，它们可以卖给第一个消费者，所以你可以找到大量负担得起的、稍微旧一点的二手游戏，并在完成后从中赚钱。但我建议，像每月15美元的Xbox Game Pass这样的服务可以比二手游戏更好地满足以价值为导向的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcff87c4810c6ece2b99d70a7dd05ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.</p><p><blockquote>如果开发者提供对他们的旧目录的负担得起的访问，游戏玩家就不需要担心负担得起的二手游戏。这对开发商来说是有意义的，因为他们无论如何都不会从二手游戏销售中赚钱。通过让玩家玩旧游戏，他们可能会被说服购买最新的续集或付费DLC。</blockquote></p><p> Another argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.</p><p><blockquote>磁盘驱动器的另一个论点是向后兼容以前的控制台。这一点完全不成立，因为新一代游戏机是数字向后兼容的，允许用户将他们从老一代购买的游戏转移到新游戏机上。</blockquote></p><p> An additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.</p><p><blockquote>另一个争论是，光盘驱动器将继续存在，因为它们也可以用作蓝光播放器。事实是，DVD/蓝光远不如实体游戏重要。从Q2 2020年开始的过去四个季度，DVD/蓝光销售额从2010年的100亿美元下降到不到30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，购买一台数字游戏机的100美元折扣足以购买一台独立的蓝光播放器，这样观众就可以去其他地方，如果他们不想要游戏机，就不会有动力去购买游戏机。另一种说法是，失去蓝光功能不应该影响对游戏机的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都没有放弃光盘驱动器，也可能不会放弃下一代光盘驱动器，最大的原因是他们担心竞争会接管零售分销渠道。2020年，72%的主机软件销售额是数字化的，这一数字只会随着时间的推移而增长，但即使是剩下的28%也仍然有意义。如果他们中只有一个放弃了光盘驱动器，竞争对手可以保留它，并成为唯一在游戏驿站和其他零售商销售的人。因此，这两款游戏机都有可能保留光盘驱动器，直到物理光盘真正成为市场的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uncertain Future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站面临的问题是，即使游戏机制造商不试图在新一代中淘汰光盘，市场也在萎缩，而且已经萎缩了十多年。游戏驿站在他们的市场上也不是唯一的，因为你可以在沃尔玛、塔吉特、百思买、亚马逊买同样的产品（二手游戏除外），甚至在易贝和其他网站上买到二手游戏。</blockquote></p><p> With so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此多的竞争对手，游戏驿站试图通过提供更好的服务和拥有知识渊博的员工来脱颖而出。但他们自己的激进投资者瑞安·科恩(Ryan Cohen)发现商店的货架上布满灰尘，客户服务差，货架空空如也。听起来，游戏驿站将不得不花钱让她们的零售体验达到标准。当这么多优秀的零售商以同样的价格销售同样的产品时，很难脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> Even thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.</p><p><blockquote>即使是2020年三分之一的销售额来自电子商务，也必须与亚马逊和所有其他电子商务平台竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfc710890a2903c5e849489bb962a26\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd6b6ac51b05627bb8d471a954b385c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.</p><p><blockquote>你可以在亚马逊或Walmart.com上找到完全相同的游戏，与游戏驿站的2-5天运输相比，这两个游戏实际上有1天和2天运输。在线销售的护城河甚至可能不如零售，因为购买体验非常相似，而游戏驿站永远不会拥有亚马逊那样的分销和营销规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base could<i>become</i>since they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于游戏驿站的零售店基础<i>成为</i>因为他们是最大的专门从事视频游戏的零售品牌，仍然拥有4000多家商店。问题是，自2014年开始关闭商店以来，游戏驿站有多年的尝试，当时的首席执行官表示，他们将扩展到“与游戏相关的技术领域”。这些年来，他们试图销售复古/经典视频游戏，但未能推出游戏订阅服务，并做出了许多改变业务的承诺。2019年，即将离任的首席执行官George Sherman表示，他的游戏驿站2.0计划将把商店变成一种“文化体验”，一个“在购买前闲逛和尝试游戏”的地方。Ryan Cohen关于糟糕的零售体验和销售额持续下降的报告表明，到目前为止，他们的尝试都没有奏效。如果有一种方法可以改变他们的商店，以应对视频游戏数字化的挑战，你会认为他们的一位首席执行官在过去十年中找到了这种方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> A long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站这样成功的希望渺茫的公司在深度价值价格下具有投资潜力，但180美元/股的情况显然并非如此。他们的企业价值为11B美元，但自2018年以来没有显着的FCF或EBITDA，并且随着时间的推移，他们的市场将继续萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141ee00d085dd23d918a860df10739d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站的交易价格是大多数可比股票估值的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> Best Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.</p><p><blockquote>百思买(BBY)多年来一直在增长，盈利稳定，但EV/销售额为0.5，而游戏驿站为2.1。塔吉特(TGT)和其他零售业领导者的EV/销售额低于1.5，显然不像游戏驿站那样对其业务构成生存威胁。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站需要盈利能力大幅好转才能证明这一估值的合理性。随着他们的核心市场迅速萎缩，迄今为止每一次多元化尝试都失败了，该股似乎被严重高估，如果他们不能盈利，该业务可能几乎一文不值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Still Isn't A Short</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GME仍然不是空头</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该股的高估令人信服，但它似乎并不是一个令人信服的空头。根据其业务状况，游戏驿站的估值没有理由高于每股100美元，但这并没有阻止其在最初的挤压后几个月内保持在该范围以上。如果没有明确的催化剂或想法来最终使股价符合其业务现实（这可能需要数年时间），我将远离空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> If GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.</p><p><blockquote>如果游戏驿站在股价高企时巧妙地增加股票发行次数，他们可能会带来数十亿美元的额外现金。自6月份发行10亿美元ATM以来，股价一直保持不变，因此他们或许能够更进一步。以180美元/股的价格，每出售10亿美元的股票可带来每股约14美元的现金，而目前每股约为27美元。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，足够多的股票发行可能会压低股价，但如果该股同时飙升至400美元以上或以上的高点，任何做空该股的人都有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Even if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.</p><p><blockquote>即使GME股价不再达到这些高点，它们也可能会在当前水平附近停留一段时间。出于我在关于Robinhood的文章中概述的原因，越来越多的赌徒进入股市。GME仍然是最臭名昭著的模因股票，纯粹的投机兴趣可能会使股价在很长一段时间内保持在这个范围内。耐心而谨慎的卖空者也许能够管理头寸以获得可观的回报，但不确定性和波动性应该会鼓励大多数投资者远离任何一方的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.</p><p><blockquote>GME股票的模因将在某个时候遇到游戏驿站业务恶化和估值过高的现实。股票发行带来的数十亿美元将偿还他们的债务并使他们在短期内继续经营，但几乎不可能证明目前130亿美元的估值是合理的。各方面的竞争以及在衰退的市场中缺乏任何差异化将阻止他们获得可观的资本回报。该业务最终将被定价为生存受到威胁且几乎无法盈利的零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> If you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.</p><p><blockquote>如果你不同意，欢迎在下面分享你的想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193811590","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.\nThe influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.\nBut GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.\nUnless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.\n\nBrandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGME Mania\nThe short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.\nThat's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent $1.1 billion they raised.\nData by YCharts\nTheir immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.\nThe Business\nGameStop's core business is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.\nPhysical videogame discs have been in decline for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the start of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).\nThe trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.\nData by YCharts\nNot Exactly Like Blockbuster\nThe trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.\nSource: PlayStation.com\nFirst, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.\nThe case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.\nConsole Makers\nConsole developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.\nA significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month Xbox Game Pass that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.\nMicrosoft.com\nGamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.\nAnother argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.\nAn additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.\nOn top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.\nThe biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.\nUncertain Future\nThe problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.\nWith so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.\nEven thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.\nGameStop.com\nAmazon.com\nYou can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.\nA lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base couldbecomesince they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.\nValuation\nA long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.\nData by YCharts\nGameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.\nBest Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.\nGameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.\nGME Still Isn't A Short\nEven though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.\nIf GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.\nAt some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.\nEven if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.\nConclusion\nThe meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.\nIf you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141201840,"gmtCreate":1625873050780,"gmtModify":1633936608728,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141201840","repostId":"2150030193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141209192,"gmtCreate":1625872941116,"gmtModify":1633936610533,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141209192","repostId":"1191131157","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156520176,"gmtCreate":1625231350995,"gmtModify":1633942306942,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice please like and comment","listText":"nice please like and comment","text":"nice please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156520176","repostId":"1120069636","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120069636","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625229204,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120069636?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 20:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q2 2021 produced and delivered over 200,000 vehicles<blockquote>特斯拉2021年Q2生产交付超20万辆</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120069636","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla Inc on Friday posted a record 201,250 vehicle deliveries for the second quarter, beating Wall ","content":"<p>Tesla Inc on Friday posted a record 201,250 vehicle deliveries for the second quarter, beating Wall Street estimates, despite Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk's earlier warnings about a shortage of chips and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司周五公布第二季度汽车交付量达到创纪录的201,250辆，超出华尔街预期，尽管首席执行官Elon Musk早些时候警告芯片和原材料短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 200,258 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付200,258辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9611b4752891866d4583a65f27b75163\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.64%&nbsp;in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌0。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737a9e557f3d740246a28b0faa8fcc42\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q2 2021 produced and delivered over 200,000 vehicles<blockquote>特斯拉2021年Q2生产交付超20万辆</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q2 2021 produced and delivered over 200,000 vehicles<blockquote>特斯拉2021年Q2生产交付超20万辆</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-02 20:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla Inc on Friday posted a record 201,250 vehicle deliveries for the second quarter, beating Wall Street estimates, despite Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk's earlier warnings about a shortage of chips and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司周五公布第二季度汽车交付量达到创纪录的201,250辆，超出华尔街预期，尽管首席执行官Elon Musk早些时候警告芯片和原材料短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 200,258 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付200,258辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9611b4752891866d4583a65f27b75163\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.64%&nbsp;in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌0。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/737a9e557f3d740246a28b0faa8fcc42\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120069636","content_text":"Tesla Inc on Friday posted a record 201,250 vehicle deliveries for the second quarter, beating Wall Street estimates, despite Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk's earlier warnings about a shortage of chips and raw materials.\nAnalysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 200,258 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.\n\nTesla shares fell 0.64% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158845149,"gmtCreate":1625146361381,"gmtModify":1633944303278,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fde4cc42da670abb0864b107dfc9f11","width":"750","height":"1238"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158845149","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150281529,"gmtCreate":1624907404761,"gmtModify":1633947207394,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like n comment","listText":"Please like n comment","text":"Please like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150281529","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150281660,"gmtCreate":1624907383950,"gmtModify":1633947207516,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150281660","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122271683,"gmtCreate":1624625617442,"gmtModify":1633950391725,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice please like and comment","listText":"Nice please like and comment","text":"Nice please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122271683","repostId":"1100486329","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100486329","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620952330,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100486329?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 08:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Luminar stock dips after mixed Q1 report with wider than exp<blockquote>Luminar股价在第一季度报告好坏参半且涨幅高于预期后下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100486329","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Luminar Technologies, Inc. (\"Luminar\" or the \"Company\") (NASDAQ: LAZR), the global leader in automot","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">Luminar Technologies, Inc.</a> (\"Luminar\" or the \"Company\") (NASDAQ: LAZR), the global leader in automotive lidar hardware and software technology, today announced a quarterly business update and financials for the first quarter ended March 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">卢米纳技术公司。</a>（“Luminar”或“公司”）（纳斯达克：LAZR），全球汽车激光雷达硬件和软件技术的领导者，今天宣布了截至2021年3月31日的第一季度季度业务更新和财务数据。</blockquote></p><p>\"We’ve remained relentlessly focused on execution, hitting our key product, commercial, production and financial targets so far. This puts Luminar on track to meet or beat our 2021 company-level milestones from the beginning of the year, as we continue to extend our technology, product, and market leadership positions.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，我们一直坚持不懈地专注于执行，实现了我们的关键产品、商业、生产和财务目标。随着我们继续扩大我们的技术、产品和市场领导地位。”</blockquote></p><p>— Austin Russell, Founder &amp; CEO</p><p><blockquote>—Austin Russell，创始人兼首席执行官</blockquote></p><p><b>Execution: Product, Industrialization, and Series Production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>执行：产品化、产业化、系列化生产</b></blockquote></p><p>Luminar continues to scale its series production capabilities. Today, Luminar officially announced its manufacturing partners Celestica and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FN\">Fabrinet</a>, while the first Iris units were produced on Luminar’s automated line in Celestica’s automotive-certified facility in Monterrey, Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar继续扩大其系列生产能力。今日，Luminar正式宣布其制造合作伙伴Celestica和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FN\">法布里内特</a>，而第一批虹膜装置是在Luminar位于墨西哥蒙特雷的Celestica汽车认证工厂的自动化生产线上生产的。</blockquote></p><p>Luminar also continues to advance validation of Iris and development of its Sentinel software as it moves up and beyond the foundation of lidar, reinforcing the Company’s transition to a system-level autonomous vehicle company. Following the introduction of Sentinel last quarter, Luminar kicked off the next phase of its software development through its partnership with Zenseact. Iris lidar data has been collected to train and optimize the performance of Luminar’s perception software, and Luminar received the green light from German authorities to proceed with Sentinel full-stack solution development and testing on public German roads.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar还继续推进Iris的验证和Sentinel软件的开发，超越了激光雷达的基础，加强了公司向系统级自动驾驶汽车公司的转型。继上季度推出Sentinel后，Luminar通过与Zenseact的合作启动了下一阶段的软件开发。已经收集了Iris激光雷达数据来训练和优化Luminar感知软件的性能，Luminar获得了德国当局的批准，可以继续在德国公共道路上进行Sentinel全栈解决方案开发和测试。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Adoption: Commercial Wins from the Ground to the Sky</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户采用：从地面到天空的商业胜利</b></blockquote></p><p>Since the 2020 year-end business update less than two months ago in March, where Luminar announced SAIC and detailed its new partnership with Zensact, Luminar achieved commercial wins with two new customers:</p><p><blockquote>自不到两个月前的3月份2020年年终业务更新以来，Luminar宣布了SAIC并详细介绍了与Zensact的新合作伙伴关系，Luminar与两个新客户取得了商业胜利：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Airbus UpNext:</b> Airbus SE’s subsidiary UpNext – which was created to give future flight technologies a development fast-track by building, evaluating, maturing and validating new products and services that encompass radical technological breakthroughs – is integrating Luminar’s lidar technology into its Vertex platform to enable safe, autonomous flight. This partnership marks Luminar’s first foray into the nearly $1 trillion aviation industry and is aimed at increasing air safety and enabling autonomous operation with automatic obstacle detection.</li><li><b>Pony.ai:</b> Luminar’s Iris will be seamlessly integrated into Pony.ai’s next-generation autonomous driving platform, featuring a multi-sensor 360-degree configuration and enabling the vehicles to operate safely and reliably in complex urban environments. Pony.ai is set to start deployment of a 200-vehicle robo-taxi fleet in urban settings across five cities in China and the U.S. The partnership is developing a new integrated sensor design that signals a shift from vehicle testing to advanced development and production scale.</li></ul><b>Major 2021 Milestones: On Track of Ahead of Schedule for Each High-Level Milestone</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>空客UpNext：</b>空中客车公司的子公司UpNext旨在通过构建、评估、成熟和验证包含根本性技术突破的新产品和服务，为未来的飞行技术提供快速发展通道，该公司正在将Luminar的激光雷达技术集成到其Vertex平台中，以实现安全、自主的飞行。此次合作标志着Luminar首次进军价值近1万亿美元的航空业，旨在提高航空安全并通过自动障碍物检测实现自主操作。</li><li><b>小马智行：</b>Luminar的Iris将无缝集成到小马智行的下一代自动驾驶平台中，具有多传感器360度配置，使车辆能够在复杂的城市环境中安全可靠地运行。小马智行将开始在中国和美国五个城市的城市环境中部署200辆机器人出租车车队。该合作伙伴正在开发一种新的集成传感器设计，标志着从车辆测试向高级开发和生产规模的转变。</li></ul><b>2021年主要里程碑：每个高级里程碑都提前实现</b></blockquote></p><p>Luminar is on-track to meet or exceed each of its key 2021 milestones set forth at the beginning of the year and shared in its fourth quarter 2020 business update:</p><p><blockquote>Luminar有望达到或超过年初制定的2021年每个关键里程碑，并在2020年第四季度业务更新中分享：</blockquote></p><p><ol><li><b>Iris Industrialization for Series Production:</b>Luminar successfully hit its major industrialization milestone with manufacturing partners and producing the first Iris lidars off the line, and remains on track to hit the C-sample phase before year end.</li><li><b>Software Development</b>: Luminar collected Iris data and trained its perception software, enabling perception with Iris. Luminar also received approval from Germany for Sentinel development and testing on public German roads, and remains on track for its Sentinel alpha release at year-end.</li><li><b>Commercial Programs:</b>So far this year, Luminar has won more commercial programs than expected, with the recent Airbus UpNext, Pony.ai, Zensact, and SAIC wins in the past few months. Luminar expects to increase its \"major commercial win\" guidance at its next quarterly business update call.</li><li><b>Forward-Looking Order Book</b>: Luminar has been targeting growth of 40% from its year-end 2020 forward-looking order book of $1.3 billion, driven by major commercial wins. Luminar expects to increase this growth guidance at its next quarterly business update call.</li><li><b>Maintain Strong Liquidity and Cash Position:</b>Luminar remains on track for its target of achieving a cash position at year end 2021 equal to or higher than its position at year end 2020. This is enabled in part by Luminar successfully raising $154 million from warrants in the first quarter. Luminar’s cash position currently stands at $610 million.</li></ol><b>First Quarter 2021 Financials: Strong Revenue Growth and Efficient Cash Management</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>用于批量生产的虹膜产业化：</b>Luminar与制造合作伙伴成功实现了其重要的工业化里程碑，并生产了第一台下线的Iris激光雷达，并有望在年底前进入C样本阶段。</li><li><b>软件开发</b>：Luminar收集虹膜数据并训练其感知软件，实现了虹膜感知。Luminar还获得了德国的批准，可以在德国公共道路上进行Sentinel开发和测试，并有望在年底发布Sentinel alpha。</li><li><b>商业项目：</b>今年到目前为止，Luminar赢得的商业项目比预期的要多，最近的空客UpNext、Pony.ai、Zensact和SAIC在过去几个月中获胜。Luminar预计将在下一季度业务更新看涨期权中提高其“重大商业胜利”指引。</li><li><b>前瞻性订单簿</b>：在重大商业胜利的推动下，Luminar的目标是比2020年底13亿美元的前瞻性订单增长40%。Luminar预计在下一季度看涨期权业务更新中提高这一增长指引。</li><li><b>保持强劲的流动性和现金状况：</b>Luminar仍有望实现2021年底现金状况等于或高于2020年底现金状况的目标。这在一定程度上是由于Luminar在第一季度成功通过认股权证筹集了1.54亿美元。Luminar的现金头寸目前为6.1亿美元。</li></ol><b>2021年第一季度财务状况：强劲的收入增长和高效的现金管理</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Revenue</b> for the first quarter was $5.3 million, a year-over-year increase of 37% compared to the first quarter of 2020 and a sequential 118% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入</b>第一季度为530万美元，与2020年第一季度相比同比增长37%，与2020年第四季度相比环比增长118%。</blockquote></p><p><b>GAAP net loss</b> for the first quarter of 2021 was $(75.9) million, or $(0.23) per share, basic and diluted, compared to GAAP net loss of $(15.6) million, or $(0.12) per share, basic and diluted, for the first quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>GAAP净亏损</b>2021年第一季度为(7590万)美元，即每股基本和摊薄亏损(0.23)美元，而第一季度GAAP净亏损为(1560万)美元，即每股基本和摊薄亏损(0.12)美元。2020年第一季度。</blockquote></p><p><b>Non-GAAP net loss</b> for the first quarter of 2021 was $(27.0) million, or $(0.08) per share, basic and diluted, compared to non-GAAP net loss of $(14.1) million, or $(0.11) per share, basic and diluted, for the first quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>非公认会计准则净亏损</b>2021年第一季度的基本和摊薄亏损为(2700万)美元，即每股(0.08)美元，而2020年第一季度的非GAAP净亏损为(1410万)美元，即每股基本和摊薄亏损为(0.11)美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>Cash and investments</b> were $610.3 million as of March 31, 2021, compared to $485.7 million as of December 31, 2020, and included $154 million raised from exercises of warrants and a cash spend (operating cash flow less capital expenditures) of $28.9 million during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><b>现金及投资</b>截至2021年3月31日为6.103亿美元，而截至2020年12月31日为4.857亿美元，其中包括通过行使认股权证筹集的1.54亿美元和本季度现金支出（运营现金流减去资本支出）2890万美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Guidance:</b> Luminar remains on track to achieve its full-year 2021 guidance for revenue of $25 to $30 million and net cash spend of approximately $140 million.</p><p><blockquote><b>财务指导：</b>Luminar仍有望实现2021年全年收入25至3000万美元和净现金支出约1.4亿美元的指导。</blockquote></p><p>Luminar stock dips after mixed Q1 report.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度报告好坏参半后，Luminar股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e23634512ae92b7efff381e828ff18\" tg-width=\"1268\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLuminar stock dips after mixed Q1 report with wider than exp<blockquote>Luminar股价在第一季度报告好坏参半且涨幅高于预期后下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-14 08:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">Luminar Technologies, Inc.</a> (\"Luminar\" or the \"Company\") (NASDAQ: LAZR), the global leader in automotive lidar hardware and software technology, today announced a quarterly business update and financials for the first quarter ended March 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAZR\">卢米纳技术公司。</a>（“Luminar”或“公司”）（纳斯达克：LAZR），全球汽车激光雷达硬件和软件技术的领导者，今天宣布了截至2021年3月31日的第一季度季度业务更新和财务数据。</blockquote></p><p>\"We’ve remained relentlessly focused on execution, hitting our key product, commercial, production and financial targets so far. This puts Luminar on track to meet or beat our 2021 company-level milestones from the beginning of the year, as we continue to extend our technology, product, and market leadership positions.\"</p><p><blockquote>“到目前为止，我们一直坚持不懈地专注于执行，实现了我们的关键产品、商业、生产和财务目标。随着我们继续扩大我们的技术、产品和市场领导地位。”</blockquote></p><p>— Austin Russell, Founder &amp; CEO</p><p><blockquote>—Austin Russell，创始人兼首席执行官</blockquote></p><p><b>Execution: Product, Industrialization, and Series Production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>执行：产品化、产业化、系列化生产</b></blockquote></p><p>Luminar continues to scale its series production capabilities. Today, Luminar officially announced its manufacturing partners Celestica and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FN\">Fabrinet</a>, while the first Iris units were produced on Luminar’s automated line in Celestica’s automotive-certified facility in Monterrey, Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar继续扩大其系列生产能力。今日，Luminar正式宣布其制造合作伙伴Celestica和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FN\">法布里内特</a>，而第一批虹膜装置是在Luminar位于墨西哥蒙特雷的Celestica汽车认证工厂的自动化生产线上生产的。</blockquote></p><p>Luminar also continues to advance validation of Iris and development of its Sentinel software as it moves up and beyond the foundation of lidar, reinforcing the Company’s transition to a system-level autonomous vehicle company. Following the introduction of Sentinel last quarter, Luminar kicked off the next phase of its software development through its partnership with Zenseact. Iris lidar data has been collected to train and optimize the performance of Luminar’s perception software, and Luminar received the green light from German authorities to proceed with Sentinel full-stack solution development and testing on public German roads.</p><p><blockquote>Luminar还继续推进Iris的验证和Sentinel软件的开发，超越了激光雷达的基础，加强了公司向系统级自动驾驶汽车公司的转型。继上季度推出Sentinel后，Luminar通过与Zenseact的合作启动了下一阶段的软件开发。已经收集了Iris激光雷达数据来训练和优化Luminar感知软件的性能，Luminar获得了德国当局的批准，可以继续在德国公共道路上进行Sentinel全栈解决方案开发和测试。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Adoption: Commercial Wins from the Ground to the Sky</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户采用：从地面到天空的商业胜利</b></blockquote></p><p>Since the 2020 year-end business update less than two months ago in March, where Luminar announced SAIC and detailed its new partnership with Zensact, Luminar achieved commercial wins with two new customers:</p><p><blockquote>自不到两个月前的3月份2020年年终业务更新以来，Luminar宣布了SAIC并详细介绍了与Zensact的新合作伙伴关系，Luminar与两个新客户取得了商业胜利：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Airbus UpNext:</b> Airbus SE’s subsidiary UpNext – which was created to give future flight technologies a development fast-track by building, evaluating, maturing and validating new products and services that encompass radical technological breakthroughs – is integrating Luminar’s lidar technology into its Vertex platform to enable safe, autonomous flight. This partnership marks Luminar’s first foray into the nearly $1 trillion aviation industry and is aimed at increasing air safety and enabling autonomous operation with automatic obstacle detection.</li><li><b>Pony.ai:</b> Luminar’s Iris will be seamlessly integrated into Pony.ai’s next-generation autonomous driving platform, featuring a multi-sensor 360-degree configuration and enabling the vehicles to operate safely and reliably in complex urban environments. Pony.ai is set to start deployment of a 200-vehicle robo-taxi fleet in urban settings across five cities in China and the U.S. The partnership is developing a new integrated sensor design that signals a shift from vehicle testing to advanced development and production scale.</li></ul><b>Major 2021 Milestones: On Track of Ahead of Schedule for Each High-Level Milestone</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>空客UpNext：</b>空中客车公司的子公司UpNext旨在通过构建、评估、成熟和验证包含根本性技术突破的新产品和服务，为未来的飞行技术提供快速发展通道，该公司正在将Luminar的激光雷达技术集成到其Vertex平台中，以实现安全、自主的飞行。此次合作标志着Luminar首次进军价值近1万亿美元的航空业，旨在提高航空安全并通过自动障碍物检测实现自主操作。</li><li><b>小马智行：</b>Luminar的Iris将无缝集成到小马智行的下一代自动驾驶平台中，具有多传感器360度配置，使车辆能够在复杂的城市环境中安全可靠地运行。小马智行将开始在中国和美国五个城市的城市环境中部署200辆机器人出租车车队。该合作伙伴正在开发一种新的集成传感器设计，标志着从车辆测试向高级开发和生产规模的转变。</li></ul><b>2021年主要里程碑：每个高级里程碑都提前实现</b></blockquote></p><p>Luminar is on-track to meet or exceed each of its key 2021 milestones set forth at the beginning of the year and shared in its fourth quarter 2020 business update:</p><p><blockquote>Luminar有望达到或超过年初制定的2021年每个关键里程碑，并在2020年第四季度业务更新中分享：</blockquote></p><p><ol><li><b>Iris Industrialization for Series Production:</b>Luminar successfully hit its major industrialization milestone with manufacturing partners and producing the first Iris lidars off the line, and remains on track to hit the C-sample phase before year end.</li><li><b>Software Development</b>: Luminar collected Iris data and trained its perception software, enabling perception with Iris. Luminar also received approval from Germany for Sentinel development and testing on public German roads, and remains on track for its Sentinel alpha release at year-end.</li><li><b>Commercial Programs:</b>So far this year, Luminar has won more commercial programs than expected, with the recent Airbus UpNext, Pony.ai, Zensact, and SAIC wins in the past few months. Luminar expects to increase its \"major commercial win\" guidance at its next quarterly business update call.</li><li><b>Forward-Looking Order Book</b>: Luminar has been targeting growth of 40% from its year-end 2020 forward-looking order book of $1.3 billion, driven by major commercial wins. Luminar expects to increase this growth guidance at its next quarterly business update call.</li><li><b>Maintain Strong Liquidity and Cash Position:</b>Luminar remains on track for its target of achieving a cash position at year end 2021 equal to or higher than its position at year end 2020. This is enabled in part by Luminar successfully raising $154 million from warrants in the first quarter. Luminar’s cash position currently stands at $610 million.</li></ol><b>First Quarter 2021 Financials: Strong Revenue Growth and Efficient Cash Management</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>用于批量生产的虹膜产业化：</b>Luminar与制造合作伙伴成功实现了其重要的工业化里程碑，并生产了第一台下线的Iris激光雷达，并有望在年底前进入C样本阶段。</li><li><b>软件开发</b>：Luminar收集虹膜数据并训练其感知软件，实现了虹膜感知。Luminar还获得了德国的批准，可以在德国公共道路上进行Sentinel开发和测试，并有望在年底发布Sentinel alpha。</li><li><b>商业项目：</b>今年到目前为止，Luminar赢得的商业项目比预期的要多，最近的空客UpNext、Pony.ai、Zensact和SAIC在过去几个月中获胜。Luminar预计将在下一季度业务更新看涨期权中提高其“重大商业胜利”指引。</li><li><b>前瞻性订单簿</b>：在重大商业胜利的推动下，Luminar的目标是比2020年底13亿美元的前瞻性订单增长40%。Luminar预计在下一季度看涨期权业务更新中提高这一增长指引。</li><li><b>保持强劲的流动性和现金状况：</b>Luminar仍有望实现2021年底现金状况等于或高于2020年底现金状况的目标。这在一定程度上是由于Luminar在第一季度成功通过认股权证筹集了1.54亿美元。Luminar的现金头寸目前为6.1亿美元。</li></ol><b>2021年第一季度财务状况：强劲的收入增长和高效的现金管理</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Revenue</b> for the first quarter was $5.3 million, a year-over-year increase of 37% compared to the first quarter of 2020 and a sequential 118% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入</b>第一季度为530万美元，与2020年第一季度相比同比增长37%，与2020年第四季度相比环比增长118%。</blockquote></p><p><b>GAAP net loss</b> for the first quarter of 2021 was $(75.9) million, or $(0.23) per share, basic and diluted, compared to GAAP net loss of $(15.6) million, or $(0.12) per share, basic and diluted, for the first quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>GAAP净亏损</b>2021年第一季度为(7590万)美元，即每股基本和摊薄亏损(0.23)美元，而第一季度GAAP净亏损为(1560万)美元，即每股基本和摊薄亏损(0.12)美元。2020年第一季度。</blockquote></p><p><b>Non-GAAP net loss</b> for the first quarter of 2021 was $(27.0) million, or $(0.08) per share, basic and diluted, compared to non-GAAP net loss of $(14.1) million, or $(0.11) per share, basic and diluted, for the first quarter of 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>非公认会计准则净亏损</b>2021年第一季度的基本和摊薄亏损为(2700万)美元，即每股(0.08)美元，而2020年第一季度的非GAAP净亏损为(1410万)美元，即每股基本和摊薄亏损为(0.11)美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>Cash and investments</b> were $610.3 million as of March 31, 2021, compared to $485.7 million as of December 31, 2020, and included $154 million raised from exercises of warrants and a cash spend (operating cash flow less capital expenditures) of $28.9 million during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote><b>现金及投资</b>截至2021年3月31日为6.103亿美元，而截至2020年12月31日为4.857亿美元，其中包括通过行使认股权证筹集的1.54亿美元和本季度现金支出（运营现金流减去资本支出）2890万美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Guidance:</b> Luminar remains on track to achieve its full-year 2021 guidance for revenue of $25 to $30 million and net cash spend of approximately $140 million.</p><p><blockquote><b>财务指导：</b>Luminar仍有望实现2021年全年收入25至3000万美元和净现金支出约1.4亿美元的指导。</blockquote></p><p>Luminar stock dips after mixed Q1 report.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度报告好坏参半后，Luminar股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e23634512ae92b7efff381e828ff18\" tg-width=\"1268\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LAZR":"Luminar Technologies, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100486329","content_text":"Luminar Technologies, Inc. (\"Luminar\" or the \"Company\") (NASDAQ: LAZR), the global leader in automotive lidar hardware and software technology, today announced a quarterly business update and financials for the first quarter ended March 31, 2021.\"We’ve remained relentlessly focused on execution, hitting our key product, commercial, production and financial targets so far. This puts Luminar on track to meet or beat our 2021 company-level milestones from the beginning of the year, as we continue to extend our technology, product, and market leadership positions.\"— Austin Russell, Founder & CEOExecution: Product, Industrialization, and Series ProductionLuminar continues to scale its series production capabilities. Today, Luminar officially announced its manufacturing partners Celestica and Fabrinet, while the first Iris units were produced on Luminar’s automated line in Celestica’s automotive-certified facility in Monterrey, Mexico.Luminar also continues to advance validation of Iris and development of its Sentinel software as it moves up and beyond the foundation of lidar, reinforcing the Company’s transition to a system-level autonomous vehicle company. Following the introduction of Sentinel last quarter, Luminar kicked off the next phase of its software development through its partnership with Zenseact. Iris lidar data has been collected to train and optimize the performance of Luminar’s perception software, and Luminar received the green light from German authorities to proceed with Sentinel full-stack solution development and testing on public German roads.Customer Adoption: Commercial Wins from the Ground to the SkySince the 2020 year-end business update less than two months ago in March, where Luminar announced SAIC and detailed its new partnership with Zensact, Luminar achieved commercial wins with two new customers:Airbus UpNext: Airbus SE’s subsidiary UpNext – which was created to give future flight technologies a development fast-track by building, evaluating, maturing and validating new products and services that encompass radical technological breakthroughs – is integrating Luminar’s lidar technology into its Vertex platform to enable safe, autonomous flight. This partnership marks Luminar’s first foray into the nearly $1 trillion aviation industry and is aimed at increasing air safety and enabling autonomous operation with automatic obstacle detection.Pony.ai: Luminar’s Iris will be seamlessly integrated into Pony.ai’s next-generation autonomous driving platform, featuring a multi-sensor 360-degree configuration and enabling the vehicles to operate safely and reliably in complex urban environments. Pony.ai is set to start deployment of a 200-vehicle robo-taxi fleet in urban settings across five cities in China and the U.S. The partnership is developing a new integrated sensor design that signals a shift from vehicle testing to advanced development and production scale.Major 2021 Milestones: On Track of Ahead of Schedule for Each High-Level MilestoneLuminar is on-track to meet or exceed each of its key 2021 milestones set forth at the beginning of the year and shared in its fourth quarter 2020 business update:Iris Industrialization for Series Production:Luminar successfully hit its major industrialization milestone with manufacturing partners and producing the first Iris lidars off the line, and remains on track to hit the C-sample phase before year end.Software Development: Luminar collected Iris data and trained its perception software, enabling perception with Iris. Luminar also received approval from Germany for Sentinel development and testing on public German roads, and remains on track for its Sentinel alpha release at year-end.Commercial Programs:So far this year, Luminar has won more commercial programs than expected, with the recent Airbus UpNext, Pony.ai, Zensact, and SAIC wins in the past few months. Luminar expects to increase its \"major commercial win\" guidance at its next quarterly business update call.Forward-Looking Order Book: Luminar has been targeting growth of 40% from its year-end 2020 forward-looking order book of $1.3 billion, driven by major commercial wins. Luminar expects to increase this growth guidance at its next quarterly business update call.Maintain Strong Liquidity and Cash Position:Luminar remains on track for its target of achieving a cash position at year end 2021 equal to or higher than its position at year end 2020. This is enabled in part by Luminar successfully raising $154 million from warrants in the first quarter. Luminar’s cash position currently stands at $610 million.First Quarter 2021 Financials: Strong Revenue Growth and Efficient Cash ManagementRevenue for the first quarter was $5.3 million, a year-over-year increase of 37% compared to the first quarter of 2020 and a sequential 118% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.GAAP net loss for the first quarter of 2021 was $(75.9) million, or $(0.23) per share, basic and diluted, compared to GAAP net loss of $(15.6) million, or $(0.12) per share, basic and diluted, for the first quarter of 2020.Non-GAAP net loss for the first quarter of 2021 was $(27.0) million, or $(0.08) per share, basic and diluted, compared to non-GAAP net loss of $(14.1) million, or $(0.11) per share, basic and diluted, for the first quarter of 2020.Cash and investments were $610.3 million as of March 31, 2021, compared to $485.7 million as of December 31, 2020, and included $154 million raised from exercises of warrants and a cash spend (operating cash flow less capital expenditures) of $28.9 million during the quarter.Financial Guidance: Luminar remains on track to achieve its full-year 2021 guidance for revenue of $25 to $30 million and net cash spend of approximately $140 million.Luminar stock dips after mixed Q1 report.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LAZR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167221096,"gmtCreate":1624272161915,"gmtModify":1634008615385,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3576232257279797\">@dandan_4896</a>: Omg bb !!! I won the giveaway voucher again👍 nice","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3576232257279797\">@dandan_4896</a>: Omg bb !!! I won the giveaway voucher again👍 nice","text":"//@dandan_4896: Omg bb !!! I won the giveaway voucher again👍 nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167221096","repostId":"1196746626","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196746626","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624268221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196746626?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up<blockquote>普拉格能源：这只股票未能让我们充电</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196746626","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Plug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.</li>  <li>Despite experiencing a renaissance in the 2020 tech and growth surge, the stock appears to be re-rating back to its earlier valuation multiple as investor optimism falters.</li>  <li>Management has high hopes for the future, with an impressive slide-deck published in the fall of 2020 laying out how they see the company developing in the near future.</li>  <li>While forecasts are impressive to read, investors should consider whether there is enough substance in the numbers to back them up.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd52b10176701b73dd7d557921bfd29e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"480\"><span>3alexd/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>氢燃料电池解决方案生产商普拉格能源的历史动荡，其股价仅为1999年科技繁荣时期价格的一小部分。</li><li>尽管经历了2020年科技和增长激增的复兴，但随着投资者乐观情绪动摇，该股似乎正在重新评级至之前的估值倍数。</li><li>管理层对未来寄予厚望，2020年秋季发布了一份令人印象深刻的幻灯片，阐述了他们对公司在不久的将来发展的看法。</li><li>虽然预测令人印象深刻，但投资者应该考虑这些数字是否有足够的实质内容来支持它们。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>3alexd/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite a strong end to 2020, fuelled by investor optimism for all things linked to our clean and green future, this stock appears to be re-rating back to its former valuation multiple.While there are many factors investors will point towards to support a bull thesis, in our opinion many forward-looking projections are overly ambitious and may ultimately be out of reach. We question whether the total addressable market is significant enough for Plug to prosper, particularly in the light of strong competition.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2020年底表现强劲，但在投资者对与我们清洁和绿色未来相关的所有事物的乐观情绪的推动下，该股似乎正在重新评级至之前的估值倍数。虽然投资者会指出许多因素来支持牛市论点，但我们认为许多前瞻性预测过于雄心勃勃，最终可能遥不可及。我们质疑整个潜在市场是否足以让Plug繁荣，特别是在竞争激烈的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Background to our thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们论文的背景</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power (PLUG) was a roaring success in the latter part of 2020, increasing by over 400% to its January 2021 peak, before crashing back down to earth as the stock was hit by an&nbsp;accounting scandal.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源(PLUG)在2020年下半年取得了巨大成功，股价上涨了400%以上，达到2021年1月的峰值，随后因该股受到会计丑闻的打击而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c03000d0db7000dd850fad52fdd9068\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The accounting issues have been covered in detail in the article linked above, so we won’t pore over them in too much detail here, except to say we are big believers in the old adage - “if in doubt, get out.\" An accounting scandal and a restatement of prior year figures is perhaps not the wisest foundations with which to build an investment decision in our opinion.</p><p><blockquote>上面链接的文章已经详细介绍了会计问题，所以我们不会在这里详细讨论它们，只是说我们非常相信这句古老的格言——“如果有疑问，就滚出去。”在我们看来，会计丑闻和对上一年数据的重述可能不是做出投资决策的最明智的基础。</blockquote></p><p> Whether an accounting scandal is considered a red flag from an investment thesis or not, most investors would baulk at the thought of investing in a firm with legal concerns and unknown liabilities. Unfortunately, for PLUG stockholders, that is exactly what is laid out in the company’s most recent&nbsp;annual report, with a flurry of legal proceedings being filed in early 2021 off the back of the accounting scandal, adding to earlier proceedings from staff involved in an accident which is yet to be resolved. For many investors, these flags would be enough to deter them from an investment. However, a contrary argument may be that these factors are already priced in and the company's future may be rosier. Let's consider what the future holds for Plug Power.</p><p><blockquote>无论会计丑闻是否被视为投资论文中的危险信号，大多数投资者都会拒绝投资一家存在法律问题和未知负债的公司。不幸的是，对于PLUG股东来说，这正是该公司最新年度报告中所阐述的内容，由于会计丑闻，2021年初提起了一系列法律诉讼，增加了参与事故的员工早些时候提起的诉讼尚未解决。对于许多投资者来说，这些标志足以阻止他们投资。然而，相反的论点可能是，这些因素已经被定价，公司的未来可能会更加乐观。让我们考虑一下普拉格能源的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Considering Plug Power's Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑到普拉格能源的估值</b></blockquote></p><p> As long-term growth investors, the consideration of valuation is not normally the first port of call when considering an investment decision. We’ve previously laid out our belief that what seems expensive, often is so for good reason, when laying out a bull thesis for other stocks. However, in this case we think it paints a very different story. When considering the valuation of Plug Power, we note a current enterprise value of $16.1 billion, being a $16.8 billion market cap, deducting $1.3 billion cash and adding $0.6 billion in debt. This gives us a forward looking EV/Sales figure for the next twelve months of 36.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期成长型投资者，在考虑投资决策时，通常不会首先考虑估值。我们之前曾阐述过我们的信念，即在为其他股票制定牛市论点时，看似昂贵的东西往往是有充分理由的。然而，在这种情况下，我们认为它描绘了一个非常不同的故事。在考虑普拉格能源的估值时，我们注意到目前的企业价值为161亿美元，即168亿美元的市值，扣除13亿美元的现金并增加6亿美元的债务。这为我们提供了未来12个月36的前瞻性EV/销售数据。</blockquote></p><p> While the multiple itself is high by most gauges, as we’ve outlined, the number itself is not really our primary concern. If we delve a little deeper into the valuation story, what we can see is a company that traded at 3.8 times its next twelve-month revenues in September 2019 (using the same metrics outlined above). This multiple increased gradually to 12.3 by June 2020, before exploding as high as 56 times next twelve-month sales in December 2020.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所概述的，虽然从大多数标准来看，倍数本身都很高，但数字本身并不是我们真正关心的主要问题。如果我们更深入地研究估值故事，我们可以看到一家公司在2019年9月的交易价格是其未来12个月收入的3.8倍（使用上述相同的指标）。到2020年6月，这一倍数逐渐增加至12.3，然后在2020年12月的未来12个月销售额中飙升至56倍。</blockquote></p><p> This incredible volatility in valuation multiple does not appear to have been triggered by developing sales or profitability. PLUG's quarter-on-quarter last twelve-month sales increased a modest 50% between September 2019 and September 2020 ($198 million September 2019 and $308 million September 2020). Thereafter a large decline, caused by their accounting irregularities, led to a December 2020 loss of $94 million.</p><p><blockquote>估值倍数的这种令人难以置信的波动似乎并不是由销售或盈利能力的发展引发的。2019年9月至2020年9月期间，PLUG过去12个月的季度销售额小幅增长了50%（2019年9月为1.98亿美元，2020年9月为3.08亿美元）。此后，由于会计违规行为导致大幅下降，导致2020年12月亏损9400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> It's our thesis that the stock price surge was not built on any solid financial foundation, more likely linked to investor appetite for exposure to companies that may benefit from future environmental trends, and potentially the strong forecasts from management. As the projections have not yet played out in the numbers, the share price has suffered and this is a trend we expect to continue to see.</p><p><blockquote>我们的论点是，股价飙升并非建立在任何坚实的财务基础之上，更有可能与投资者对可能受益于未来环境趋势的公司的投资兴趣以及管理层潜在的强劲预测有关。由于预测尚未体现在数字上，股价受到了影响，我们预计这一趋势将继续出现。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One positive case that can be made for PLUG's future from a valuation perspective is that despite negatively trending income statement features, the company appears to have a strong balance sheet. The considerable cash and cash equivalent balance ($1.3 billion) by far surpasses their current and long-term liabilities ($784 million), meaning PLUG should have no issues in withstanding short-term poor performance.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，PLUG未来的一个积极案例是，尽管损益表特征呈负面趋势，但该公司似乎拥有强劲的资产负债表。可观的现金和现金等价物余额（13亿美元）远远超过了其当前和长期负债（7.84亿美元），这意味着PLUG在承受短期业绩不佳方面应该没有问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02d2db1e6065bc1e3501e02da38a16a\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"229\"><span>(Source: PLUG's 2020 Annual report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：普拉格2020年年报）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's current ratio of 7.21, being current assets divided by current liabilities, suggests a company more than able to continue operations despite being in a loss-making position.While this is encouraging from a bull thesis perspective, our core investment strategy is more revenue and growth orientated. PLUG certainly appears to be well capitalized, yet that alone will not enable the company to drive returns for investors. One obvious option for PLUG would be to deploy their cash into projects that would develop new revenue streams and enhance their earnings position.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的流动比率为7.21，即流动资产除以流动负债，表明该公司尽管处于亏损状态，但仍有能力继续运营。虽然从牛市论点的角度来看，这是令人鼓舞的，但我们的核心投资策略更加以收入和增长为导向。PLUG看起来资本充足，但仅此一点并不能使该公司为投资者带来回报。对于PLUG来说，一个显而易见的选择是将现金部署到开发新收入来源并提高盈利状况的项目中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consideration of growth opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑增长机会</b></blockquote></p><p> Since we deviated from our normal order of assessment, let’s now return to where the thesis normally begins, that is the story of the company itself. Do we consider this investment story to paint a positive picture of future growth, with products that will change the company fortunes and lead to a prosperous future? If we’re honest, right now, no. Let’s assess why that is the case.</p><p><blockquote>由于我们偏离了正常的评估顺序，现在让我们回到论文通常开始的地方，那就是公司本身的故事。我们是否认为这个投资故事描绘了未来增长的积极图景，其产品将改变公司的命运并带来繁荣的未来？如果我们诚实的话，现在，不。让我们评估一下为什么会这样。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, PLUG is a producer of hydrogen powered fuel cell solutions, outlining in their recent&nbsp;annual report&nbsp;that they see their products in “material handling vehicles and industrial trucks.\" This is the first factor that investors should be acutely aware of. The hype of 2020 may have gotten some investors carried away with this “battery producer” for electric vehicles, without understanding its position in the market.</p><p><blockquote>首先，PLUG是氢动力燃料电池解决方案的生产商，在他们最近的年度报告中概述了他们在“物料搬运车辆和工业卡车”中看到的产品这是投资者应该敏锐意识到的第一个因素。2020年的炒作可能让一些投资者被这家电动汽车的“电池生产商”冲昏了头脑，没有了解它在市场上的地位。</blockquote></p><p> The vehicle battery market is well laid out by this&nbsp;IHS Markit report, which considers the future prospects for hydrogen fuel cells. If you’re bullish on PLUG, this report will give some encouragement, showing that there is a strong increase expected in both vehicles and charging stations in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>这份IHS Markit报告很好地布局了车用电池市场，该报告考虑了氢燃料电池的未来前景。如果您看好PLUG，这份报告将会给您一些鼓励，表明未来几年车辆和充电站预计都会强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c627200e94e6301508a5f09d5381a43b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"><span>(Source:IHS Markit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：IHS Markit）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it’s not the headline numbers that caught our eye in this report, but the description of where exactly hydrogen-powered batteries sit within the marketplace. According to the report, while there are clear benefits of hydrogen over the lithium batteries used by Tesla and others, the downside is that they use “more complex processes” and have “about half the wheel to wheel efficiency of battery electric,” concluding that they are more suitable for vehicles with heavier weights and longer trip times – think industrial vehicles and buses.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这份报告中引起我们注意的并不是标题数字，而是对氢动力电池在市场中的确切位置的描述。根据该报告，虽然氢比特斯拉和其他公司使用的锂电池有明显的好处，但缺点是它们使用“更复杂的工艺”，并且“轮对轮效率约为电池电动的一半”，得出的结论是它们更适合重量较重和行程时间较长的车辆——想想工业车辆和公共汽车。</blockquote></p><p> In our consideration of the story, this dramatically reduces the total addressable market (\"TAM\"). Yes, there are a lot of industrial vehicles in the world, but there is a significantly larger market for standard lighter automobiles, boats, light-aircraft and drones.</p><p><blockquote>在我们对这个故事的考虑中，这极大地减少了总目标市场（“TAM”）。是的，世界上有很多工业车辆，但标准轻型汽车、船只、轻型飞机和无人机的市场要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Our assessment of the story is enhanced further by reporting from the International Energy Agency, who lay out their future projections for electric light duty vehicles (“LDV”) in the graph below – electric cars essentially. With projections for up to 200 million units expected to be on the road in 2030, up from 22 million today. In our opinion, if investing in the clean and green future of electric vehicles, the LDV space is far more appealing, and the smaller TAM in the hydrogen fuel cell space is a concern to the company's long-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署的报告进一步增强了我们对这一情况的评估，该机构在下图中列出了他们对电动轻型汽车（“LDV”）的未来预测——主要是电动汽车。预计2030年将有多达2亿辆上路，高于目前的2200万辆。我们认为，如果投资电动汽车的清洁和绿色未来，LDV领域更具吸引力，而氢燃料电池领域较小的TAM是对公司长期前景的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59bfbab3f6732c318b381f6832adfd3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>(Source :IEA 2021 Report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：IEA 2021年报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The contrary thesis for PLUG</b></p><p><blockquote><b>插头的相反论点</b></blockquote></p><p> We should also consider the counter argument to our thesis on the PLUG story. The bulls will be screaming that despite the smaller market, many companies have been highly profitable while cornering a certain segment of a larger market. That would undoubtedly be a fair assessment to make overall; however, do we consider that PLUG is best placed to do so?</p><p><blockquote>我们还应该考虑对我们关于插头故事的论点的反驳。看多者会尖叫，尽管市场较小，但许多公司在垄断更大市场的某一部分的同时获得了高额利润。总体而言，这无疑是一个公平的评估；然而，我们认为插头的最佳位置是这样做的吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In the heavy duty vehicle and hydrogen power market, there are already firms such as Proterra (PTRA), who have proof of concept and regular sales in electric buses. Plus it has become apparent that heavyweight competitors are entering the space, with General Motors' (GM&nbsp;)plans to supply&nbsp;fuel cells for locomotive trains. With this in mind, it is difficult to see PLUG capturing a significant portion of the smaller TAM that we defined earlier. Our thesis is that they may get squeezed out by this competition in the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>在重型汽车和氢动力市场，已经有Proterra(PTRA)等公司在电动公交车方面进行了概念验证和定期销售。此外，很明显，重量级竞争对手正在进入这一领域，通用汽车(GM)计划为机车列车提供燃料电池。考虑到这一点，很难看到PLUG捕获我们之前定义的较小TAM的很大一部分。我们的论点是，从长远来看，他们可能会被这场竞争挤出市场。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, the company management clearly forecasts a bright future. Their impressive September 2020&nbsp;slide deck&nbsp;highlights their forecasts of an incredible surge in revenue growth to $1.2 billion in annual sales and $250 billion in operating EBITDA. This impressive growth will be fuelled by expansion of their existing operations and development of new market segments, such as hydrogen power plants, refueling stations, heavy duty electric vehicles, airplanes and even a \"gigafactory.\"</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，公司管理层清楚地预测了光明的未来。他们令人印象深刻的2020年9月幻灯片强调了他们对年收入增长惊人的预测，年销售额将达到12亿美元，营业EBITDA将达到2500亿美元。这一令人印象深刻的增长将受到现有业务扩张和新细分市场开发的推动，例如氢发电厂、加油站、重型电动汽车、飞机甚至“超级工厂”。</blockquote></p><p> The coining of a phrase synonymous with Tesla, via their gigafactory plans, may have whet the appetite of some investors. However, we are firmly in the let’s wait and see camp here. Firstly, on the revenue side, even excluding the 2020 annual loss and writing off to the restatement issues mentioned earlier, it’s hard to gather where the $1 billion figure comes from. That would be an approximate 6.5-fold increase on the 2019 annual revenues ($150 million) in a two and a half year period; pretty ambitious? Not quite as ambitious as doing so while increasing EBITDA to $250 million from a historic loss-making position, while presumably also increasing capital expenditure to fund their gigafactory, hydrogen plant, plane and truck expansions? Unfortunately, we are struggling to see the math.</p><p><blockquote>通过他们的超级工厂计划，创造了一个与特斯拉同义的短语，可能激起了一些投资者的兴趣。然而，我们在这里坚定地站在让我们拭目以待的阵营。首先，在收入方面，即使排除2020年年度亏损并冲销前面提到的重述问题，也很难收集10亿美元的数字从何而来。这将在两年半内比2019年年收入（1.5亿美元）增长约6.5倍；很有野心？没有那么雄心勃勃，同时将EBITDA从历史性的亏损状况增加到2.5亿美元，同时可能还增加资本支出来资助他们的超级工厂、制氢厂、飞机和卡车扩张？不幸的是，我们很难看到数学。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our conclusions on Plug Power</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们对普拉格能源的结论</b></blockquote></p><p> In a global environment currently shifting toward a greener and cleaner world, fuelled by more carbon efficient vehicles, it is no surprise that investors have high hopes for a stock such as PLUG. It is easy to read their marketing material and fall in love with the story and the projections. It's encouraging to see the bold plans that management have for the company; however, we would like to see more results before assuming that these can be executed.</p><p><blockquote>在目前全球环境正在向更绿色、更清洁的世界转变的情况下，在碳效率更高的车辆的推动下，投资者对PLUG这样的股票寄予厚望也就不足为奇了。很容易阅读他们的营销材料，并爱上故事和预测。看到管理层为公司制定的大胆计划令人鼓舞；然而，在假设这些可以执行之前，我们希望看到更多的结果。</blockquote></p><p> From the research we have undertaken, we believe that the total addressable market for PLUG is smaller than currently perceived by the bulls. Long-term trends suggest that lithium batteries will be the clear leader in fuelling our greener future and we believe the hydrogen market will be considerably smaller, impacting PLUG's ability to grow. When considering this, alongside the strong competition within their subsector, the accounting and litigation red flags we noted earlier, we believe that PLUG may continue to see multiple contraction and a reduction in market cap - hence our bearish outlook at this point in time.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们进行的研究，我们认为PLUG的总潜在市场比多头目前认为的要小。长期趋势表明，锂电池将成为推动我们绿色未来的明显领导者，我们相信氢市场将会小得多，从而影响PLUG的增长能力。考虑到这一点，以及我们之前提到的其子行业内的激烈竞争、会计和诉讼危险信号，我们认为PLUG可能会继续出现多重收缩和市值减少，因此我们目前对前景持悲观态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up<blockquote>普拉格能源：这只股票未能让我们充电</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up<blockquote>普拉格能源：这只股票未能让我们充电</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 17:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Plug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.</li>  <li>Despite experiencing a renaissance in the 2020 tech and growth surge, the stock appears to be re-rating back to its earlier valuation multiple as investor optimism falters.</li>  <li>Management has high hopes for the future, with an impressive slide-deck published in the fall of 2020 laying out how they see the company developing in the near future.</li>  <li>While forecasts are impressive to read, investors should consider whether there is enough substance in the numbers to back them up.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd52b10176701b73dd7d557921bfd29e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"480\"><span>3alexd/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>氢燃料电池解决方案生产商普拉格能源的历史动荡，其股价仅为1999年科技繁荣时期价格的一小部分。</li><li>尽管经历了2020年科技和增长激增的复兴，但随着投资者乐观情绪动摇，该股似乎正在重新评级至之前的估值倍数。</li><li>管理层对未来寄予厚望，2020年秋季发布了一份令人印象深刻的幻灯片，阐述了他们对公司在不久的将来发展的看法。</li><li>虽然预测令人印象深刻，但投资者应该考虑这些数字是否有足够的实质内容来支持它们。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>3alexd/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite a strong end to 2020, fuelled by investor optimism for all things linked to our clean and green future, this stock appears to be re-rating back to its former valuation multiple.While there are many factors investors will point towards to support a bull thesis, in our opinion many forward-looking projections are overly ambitious and may ultimately be out of reach. We question whether the total addressable market is significant enough for Plug to prosper, particularly in the light of strong competition.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2020年底表现强劲，但在投资者对与我们清洁和绿色未来相关的所有事物的乐观情绪的推动下，该股似乎正在重新评级至之前的估值倍数。虽然投资者会指出许多因素来支持牛市论点，但我们认为许多前瞻性预测过于雄心勃勃，最终可能遥不可及。我们质疑整个潜在市场是否足以让Plug繁荣，特别是在竞争激烈的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Background to our thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们论文的背景</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power (PLUG) was a roaring success in the latter part of 2020, increasing by over 400% to its January 2021 peak, before crashing back down to earth as the stock was hit by an&nbsp;accounting scandal.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源(PLUG)在2020年下半年取得了巨大成功，股价上涨了400%以上，达到2021年1月的峰值，随后因该股受到会计丑闻的打击而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c03000d0db7000dd850fad52fdd9068\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The accounting issues have been covered in detail in the article linked above, so we won’t pore over them in too much detail here, except to say we are big believers in the old adage - “if in doubt, get out.\" An accounting scandal and a restatement of prior year figures is perhaps not the wisest foundations with which to build an investment decision in our opinion.</p><p><blockquote>上面链接的文章已经详细介绍了会计问题，所以我们不会在这里详细讨论它们，只是说我们非常相信这句古老的格言——“如果有疑问，就滚出去。”在我们看来，会计丑闻和对上一年数据的重述可能不是做出投资决策的最明智的基础。</blockquote></p><p> Whether an accounting scandal is considered a red flag from an investment thesis or not, most investors would baulk at the thought of investing in a firm with legal concerns and unknown liabilities. Unfortunately, for PLUG stockholders, that is exactly what is laid out in the company’s most recent&nbsp;annual report, with a flurry of legal proceedings being filed in early 2021 off the back of the accounting scandal, adding to earlier proceedings from staff involved in an accident which is yet to be resolved. For many investors, these flags would be enough to deter them from an investment. However, a contrary argument may be that these factors are already priced in and the company's future may be rosier. Let's consider what the future holds for Plug Power.</p><p><blockquote>无论会计丑闻是否被视为投资论文中的危险信号，大多数投资者都会拒绝投资一家存在法律问题和未知负债的公司。不幸的是，对于PLUG股东来说，这正是该公司最新年度报告中所阐述的内容，由于会计丑闻，2021年初提起了一系列法律诉讼，增加了参与事故的员工早些时候提起的诉讼尚未解决。对于许多投资者来说，这些标志足以阻止他们投资。然而，相反的论点可能是，这些因素已经被定价，公司的未来可能会更加乐观。让我们考虑一下普拉格能源的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Considering Plug Power's Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑到普拉格能源的估值</b></blockquote></p><p> As long-term growth investors, the consideration of valuation is not normally the first port of call when considering an investment decision. We’ve previously laid out our belief that what seems expensive, often is so for good reason, when laying out a bull thesis for other stocks. However, in this case we think it paints a very different story. When considering the valuation of Plug Power, we note a current enterprise value of $16.1 billion, being a $16.8 billion market cap, deducting $1.3 billion cash and adding $0.6 billion in debt. This gives us a forward looking EV/Sales figure for the next twelve months of 36.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期成长型投资者，在考虑投资决策时，通常不会首先考虑估值。我们之前曾阐述过我们的信念，即在为其他股票制定牛市论点时，看似昂贵的东西往往是有充分理由的。然而，在这种情况下，我们认为它描绘了一个非常不同的故事。在考虑普拉格能源的估值时，我们注意到目前的企业价值为161亿美元，即168亿美元的市值，扣除13亿美元的现金并增加6亿美元的债务。这为我们提供了未来12个月36的前瞻性EV/销售数据。</blockquote></p><p> While the multiple itself is high by most gauges, as we’ve outlined, the number itself is not really our primary concern. If we delve a little deeper into the valuation story, what we can see is a company that traded at 3.8 times its next twelve-month revenues in September 2019 (using the same metrics outlined above). This multiple increased gradually to 12.3 by June 2020, before exploding as high as 56 times next twelve-month sales in December 2020.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所概述的，虽然从大多数标准来看，倍数本身都很高，但数字本身并不是我们真正关心的主要问题。如果我们更深入地研究估值故事，我们可以看到一家公司在2019年9月的交易价格是其未来12个月收入的3.8倍（使用上述相同的指标）。到2020年6月，这一倍数逐渐增加至12.3，然后在2020年12月的未来12个月销售额中飙升至56倍。</blockquote></p><p> This incredible volatility in valuation multiple does not appear to have been triggered by developing sales or profitability. PLUG's quarter-on-quarter last twelve-month sales increased a modest 50% between September 2019 and September 2020 ($198 million September 2019 and $308 million September 2020). Thereafter a large decline, caused by their accounting irregularities, led to a December 2020 loss of $94 million.</p><p><blockquote>估值倍数的这种令人难以置信的波动似乎并不是由销售或盈利能力的发展引发的。2019年9月至2020年9月期间，PLUG过去12个月的季度销售额小幅增长了50%（2019年9月为1.98亿美元，2020年9月为3.08亿美元）。此后，由于会计违规行为导致大幅下降，导致2020年12月亏损9400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> It's our thesis that the stock price surge was not built on any solid financial foundation, more likely linked to investor appetite for exposure to companies that may benefit from future environmental trends, and potentially the strong forecasts from management. As the projections have not yet played out in the numbers, the share price has suffered and this is a trend we expect to continue to see.</p><p><blockquote>我们的论点是，股价飙升并非建立在任何坚实的财务基础之上，更有可能与投资者对可能受益于未来环境趋势的公司的投资兴趣以及管理层潜在的强劲预测有关。由于预测尚未体现在数字上，股价受到了影响，我们预计这一趋势将继续出现。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One positive case that can be made for PLUG's future from a valuation perspective is that despite negatively trending income statement features, the company appears to have a strong balance sheet. The considerable cash and cash equivalent balance ($1.3 billion) by far surpasses their current and long-term liabilities ($784 million), meaning PLUG should have no issues in withstanding short-term poor performance.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，PLUG未来的一个积极案例是，尽管损益表特征呈负面趋势，但该公司似乎拥有强劲的资产负债表。可观的现金和现金等价物余额（13亿美元）远远超过了其当前和长期负债（7.84亿美元），这意味着PLUG在承受短期业绩不佳方面应该没有问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02d2db1e6065bc1e3501e02da38a16a\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"229\"><span>(Source: PLUG's 2020 Annual report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：普拉格2020年年报）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's current ratio of 7.21, being current assets divided by current liabilities, suggests a company more than able to continue operations despite being in a loss-making position.While this is encouraging from a bull thesis perspective, our core investment strategy is more revenue and growth orientated. PLUG certainly appears to be well capitalized, yet that alone will not enable the company to drive returns for investors. One obvious option for PLUG would be to deploy their cash into projects that would develop new revenue streams and enhance their earnings position.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的流动比率为7.21，即流动资产除以流动负债，表明该公司尽管处于亏损状态，但仍有能力继续运营。虽然从牛市论点的角度来看，这是令人鼓舞的，但我们的核心投资策略更加以收入和增长为导向。PLUG看起来资本充足，但仅此一点并不能使该公司为投资者带来回报。对于PLUG来说，一个显而易见的选择是将现金部署到开发新收入来源并提高盈利状况的项目中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consideration of growth opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>考虑增长机会</b></blockquote></p><p> Since we deviated from our normal order of assessment, let’s now return to where the thesis normally begins, that is the story of the company itself. Do we consider this investment story to paint a positive picture of future growth, with products that will change the company fortunes and lead to a prosperous future? If we’re honest, right now, no. Let’s assess why that is the case.</p><p><blockquote>由于我们偏离了正常的评估顺序，现在让我们回到论文通常开始的地方，那就是公司本身的故事。我们是否认为这个投资故事描绘了未来增长的积极图景，其产品将改变公司的命运并带来繁荣的未来？如果我们诚实的话，现在，不。让我们评估一下为什么会这样。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, PLUG is a producer of hydrogen powered fuel cell solutions, outlining in their recent&nbsp;annual report&nbsp;that they see their products in “material handling vehicles and industrial trucks.\" This is the first factor that investors should be acutely aware of. The hype of 2020 may have gotten some investors carried away with this “battery producer” for electric vehicles, without understanding its position in the market.</p><p><blockquote>首先，PLUG是氢动力燃料电池解决方案的生产商，在他们最近的年度报告中概述了他们在“物料搬运车辆和工业卡车”中看到的产品这是投资者应该敏锐意识到的第一个因素。2020年的炒作可能让一些投资者被这家电动汽车的“电池生产商”冲昏了头脑，没有了解它在市场上的地位。</blockquote></p><p> The vehicle battery market is well laid out by this&nbsp;IHS Markit report, which considers the future prospects for hydrogen fuel cells. If you’re bullish on PLUG, this report will give some encouragement, showing that there is a strong increase expected in both vehicles and charging stations in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>这份IHS Markit报告很好地布局了车用电池市场，该报告考虑了氢燃料电池的未来前景。如果您看好PLUG，这份报告将会给您一些鼓励，表明未来几年车辆和充电站预计都会强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c627200e94e6301508a5f09d5381a43b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"><span>(Source:IHS Markit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：IHS Markit）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it’s not the headline numbers that caught our eye in this report, but the description of where exactly hydrogen-powered batteries sit within the marketplace. According to the report, while there are clear benefits of hydrogen over the lithium batteries used by Tesla and others, the downside is that they use “more complex processes” and have “about half the wheel to wheel efficiency of battery electric,” concluding that they are more suitable for vehicles with heavier weights and longer trip times – think industrial vehicles and buses.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在这份报告中引起我们注意的并不是标题数字，而是对氢动力电池在市场中的确切位置的描述。根据该报告，虽然氢比特斯拉和其他公司使用的锂电池有明显的好处，但缺点是它们使用“更复杂的工艺”，并且“轮对轮效率约为电池电动的一半”，得出的结论是它们更适合重量较重和行程时间较长的车辆——想想工业车辆和公共汽车。</blockquote></p><p> In our consideration of the story, this dramatically reduces the total addressable market (\"TAM\"). Yes, there are a lot of industrial vehicles in the world, but there is a significantly larger market for standard lighter automobiles, boats, light-aircraft and drones.</p><p><blockquote>在我们对这个故事的考虑中，这极大地减少了总目标市场（“TAM”）。是的，世界上有很多工业车辆，但标准轻型汽车、船只、轻型飞机和无人机的市场要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Our assessment of the story is enhanced further by reporting from the International Energy Agency, who lay out their future projections for electric light duty vehicles (“LDV”) in the graph below – electric cars essentially. With projections for up to 200 million units expected to be on the road in 2030, up from 22 million today. In our opinion, if investing in the clean and green future of electric vehicles, the LDV space is far more appealing, and the smaller TAM in the hydrogen fuel cell space is a concern to the company's long-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署的报告进一步增强了我们对这一情况的评估，该机构在下图中列出了他们对电动轻型汽车（“LDV”）的未来预测——主要是电动汽车。预计2030年将有多达2亿辆上路，高于目前的2200万辆。我们认为，如果投资电动汽车的清洁和绿色未来，LDV领域更具吸引力，而氢燃料电池领域较小的TAM是对公司长期前景的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59bfbab3f6732c318b381f6832adfd3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>(Source :IEA 2021 Report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：IEA 2021年报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The contrary thesis for PLUG</b></p><p><blockquote><b>插头的相反论点</b></blockquote></p><p> We should also consider the counter argument to our thesis on the PLUG story. The bulls will be screaming that despite the smaller market, many companies have been highly profitable while cornering a certain segment of a larger market. That would undoubtedly be a fair assessment to make overall; however, do we consider that PLUG is best placed to do so?</p><p><blockquote>我们还应该考虑对我们关于插头故事的论点的反驳。看多者会尖叫，尽管市场较小，但许多公司在垄断更大市场的某一部分的同时获得了高额利润。总体而言，这无疑是一个公平的评估；然而，我们认为插头的最佳位置是这样做的吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In the heavy duty vehicle and hydrogen power market, there are already firms such as Proterra (PTRA), who have proof of concept and regular sales in electric buses. Plus it has become apparent that heavyweight competitors are entering the space, with General Motors' (GM&nbsp;)plans to supply&nbsp;fuel cells for locomotive trains. With this in mind, it is difficult to see PLUG capturing a significant portion of the smaller TAM that we defined earlier. Our thesis is that they may get squeezed out by this competition in the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>在重型汽车和氢动力市场，已经有Proterra(PTRA)等公司在电动公交车方面进行了概念验证和定期销售。此外，很明显，重量级竞争对手正在进入这一领域，通用汽车(GM)计划为机车列车提供燃料电池。考虑到这一点，很难看到PLUG捕获我们之前定义的较小TAM的很大一部分。我们的论点是，从长远来看，他们可能会被这场竞争挤出市场。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, the company management clearly forecasts a bright future. Their impressive September 2020&nbsp;slide deck&nbsp;highlights their forecasts of an incredible surge in revenue growth to $1.2 billion in annual sales and $250 billion in operating EBITDA. This impressive growth will be fuelled by expansion of their existing operations and development of new market segments, such as hydrogen power plants, refueling stations, heavy duty electric vehicles, airplanes and even a \"gigafactory.\"</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，公司管理层清楚地预测了光明的未来。他们令人印象深刻的2020年9月幻灯片强调了他们对年收入增长惊人的预测，年销售额将达到12亿美元，营业EBITDA将达到2500亿美元。这一令人印象深刻的增长将受到现有业务扩张和新细分市场开发的推动，例如氢发电厂、加油站、重型电动汽车、飞机甚至“超级工厂”。</blockquote></p><p> The coining of a phrase synonymous with Tesla, via their gigafactory plans, may have whet the appetite of some investors. However, we are firmly in the let’s wait and see camp here. Firstly, on the revenue side, even excluding the 2020 annual loss and writing off to the restatement issues mentioned earlier, it’s hard to gather where the $1 billion figure comes from. That would be an approximate 6.5-fold increase on the 2019 annual revenues ($150 million) in a two and a half year period; pretty ambitious? Not quite as ambitious as doing so while increasing EBITDA to $250 million from a historic loss-making position, while presumably also increasing capital expenditure to fund their gigafactory, hydrogen plant, plane and truck expansions? Unfortunately, we are struggling to see the math.</p><p><blockquote>通过他们的超级工厂计划，创造了一个与特斯拉同义的短语，可能激起了一些投资者的兴趣。然而，我们在这里坚定地站在让我们拭目以待的阵营。首先，在收入方面，即使排除2020年年度亏损并冲销前面提到的重述问题，也很难收集10亿美元的数字从何而来。这将在两年半内比2019年年收入（1.5亿美元）增长约6.5倍；很有野心？没有那么雄心勃勃，同时将EBITDA从历史性的亏损状况增加到2.5亿美元，同时可能还增加资本支出来资助他们的超级工厂、制氢厂、飞机和卡车扩张？不幸的是，我们很难看到数学。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our conclusions on Plug Power</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们对普拉格能源的结论</b></blockquote></p><p> In a global environment currently shifting toward a greener and cleaner world, fuelled by more carbon efficient vehicles, it is no surprise that investors have high hopes for a stock such as PLUG. It is easy to read their marketing material and fall in love with the story and the projections. It's encouraging to see the bold plans that management have for the company; however, we would like to see more results before assuming that these can be executed.</p><p><blockquote>在目前全球环境正在向更绿色、更清洁的世界转变的情况下，在碳效率更高的车辆的推动下，投资者对PLUG这样的股票寄予厚望也就不足为奇了。很容易阅读他们的营销材料，并爱上故事和预测。看到管理层为公司制定的大胆计划令人鼓舞；然而，在假设这些可以执行之前，我们希望看到更多的结果。</blockquote></p><p> From the research we have undertaken, we believe that the total addressable market for PLUG is smaller than currently perceived by the bulls. Long-term trends suggest that lithium batteries will be the clear leader in fuelling our greener future and we believe the hydrogen market will be considerably smaller, impacting PLUG's ability to grow. When considering this, alongside the strong competition within their subsector, the accounting and litigation red flags we noted earlier, we believe that PLUG may continue to see multiple contraction and a reduction in market cap - hence our bearish outlook at this point in time.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们进行的研究，我们认为PLUG的总潜在市场比多头目前认为的要小。长期趋势表明，锂电池将成为推动我们绿色未来的明显领导者，我们相信氢市场将会小得多，从而影响PLUG的增长能力。考虑到这一点，以及我们之前提到的其子行业内的激烈竞争、会计和诉讼危险信号，我们认为PLUG可能会继续出现多重收缩和市值减少，因此我们目前对前景持悲观态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435786-plug-power-this-stock-fails-to-get-us-charged-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435786-plug-power-this-stock-fails-to-get-us-charged-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196746626","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.\nDespite experiencing a renaissance in the 2020 tech and growth surge, the stock appears to be re-rating back to its earlier valuation multiple as investor optimism falters.\nManagement has high hopes for the future, with an impressive slide-deck published in the fall of 2020 laying out how they see the company developing in the near future.\nWhile forecasts are impressive to read, investors should consider whether there is enough substance in the numbers to back them up.\n\n3alexd/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nDespite a strong end to 2020, fuelled by investor optimism for all things linked to our clean and green future, this stock appears to be re-rating back to its former valuation multiple.While there are many factors investors will point towards to support a bull thesis, in our opinion many forward-looking projections are overly ambitious and may ultimately be out of reach. We question whether the total addressable market is significant enough for Plug to prosper, particularly in the light of strong competition.\nThe Background to our thesis\nPlug Power (PLUG) was a roaring success in the latter part of 2020, increasing by over 400% to its January 2021 peak, before crashing back down to earth as the stock was hit by an accounting scandal.\nData by YCharts\nThe accounting issues have been covered in detail in the article linked above, so we won’t pore over them in too much detail here, except to say we are big believers in the old adage - “if in doubt, get out.\" An accounting scandal and a restatement of prior year figures is perhaps not the wisest foundations with which to build an investment decision in our opinion.\nWhether an accounting scandal is considered a red flag from an investment thesis or not, most investors would baulk at the thought of investing in a firm with legal concerns and unknown liabilities. Unfortunately, for PLUG stockholders, that is exactly what is laid out in the company’s most recent annual report, with a flurry of legal proceedings being filed in early 2021 off the back of the accounting scandal, adding to earlier proceedings from staff involved in an accident which is yet to be resolved. For many investors, these flags would be enough to deter them from an investment. However, a contrary argument may be that these factors are already priced in and the company's future may be rosier. Let's consider what the future holds for Plug Power.\nConsidering Plug Power's Valuation\nAs long-term growth investors, the consideration of valuation is not normally the first port of call when considering an investment decision. We’ve previously laid out our belief that what seems expensive, often is so for good reason, when laying out a bull thesis for other stocks. However, in this case we think it paints a very different story. When considering the valuation of Plug Power, we note a current enterprise value of $16.1 billion, being a $16.8 billion market cap, deducting $1.3 billion cash and adding $0.6 billion in debt. This gives us a forward looking EV/Sales figure for the next twelve months of 36.\nWhile the multiple itself is high by most gauges, as we’ve outlined, the number itself is not really our primary concern. If we delve a little deeper into the valuation story, what we can see is a company that traded at 3.8 times its next twelve-month revenues in September 2019 (using the same metrics outlined above). This multiple increased gradually to 12.3 by June 2020, before exploding as high as 56 times next twelve-month sales in December 2020.\nThis incredible volatility in valuation multiple does not appear to have been triggered by developing sales or profitability. PLUG's quarter-on-quarter last twelve-month sales increased a modest 50% between September 2019 and September 2020 ($198 million September 2019 and $308 million September 2020). Thereafter a large decline, caused by their accounting irregularities, led to a December 2020 loss of $94 million.\nIt's our thesis that the stock price surge was not built on any solid financial foundation, more likely linked to investor appetite for exposure to companies that may benefit from future environmental trends, and potentially the strong forecasts from management. As the projections have not yet played out in the numbers, the share price has suffered and this is a trend we expect to continue to see.\nOne positive case that can be made for PLUG's future from a valuation perspective is that despite negatively trending income statement features, the company appears to have a strong balance sheet. The considerable cash and cash equivalent balance ($1.3 billion) by far surpasses their current and long-term liabilities ($784 million), meaning PLUG should have no issues in withstanding short-term poor performance.\n(Source: PLUG's 2020 Annual report)\nThe company's current ratio of 7.21, being current assets divided by current liabilities, suggests a company more than able to continue operations despite being in a loss-making position.While this is encouraging from a bull thesis perspective, our core investment strategy is more revenue and growth orientated. PLUG certainly appears to be well capitalized, yet that alone will not enable the company to drive returns for investors. One obvious option for PLUG would be to deploy their cash into projects that would develop new revenue streams and enhance their earnings position.\nConsideration of growth opportunities\nSince we deviated from our normal order of assessment, let’s now return to where the thesis normally begins, that is the story of the company itself. Do we consider this investment story to paint a positive picture of future growth, with products that will change the company fortunes and lead to a prosperous future? If we’re honest, right now, no. Let’s assess why that is the case.\nFirstly, PLUG is a producer of hydrogen powered fuel cell solutions, outlining in their recent annual report that they see their products in “material handling vehicles and industrial trucks.\" This is the first factor that investors should be acutely aware of. The hype of 2020 may have gotten some investors carried away with this “battery producer” for electric vehicles, without understanding its position in the market.\nThe vehicle battery market is well laid out by this IHS Markit report, which considers the future prospects for hydrogen fuel cells. If you’re bullish on PLUG, this report will give some encouragement, showing that there is a strong increase expected in both vehicles and charging stations in the coming years.\n(Source:IHS Markit)\nHowever, it’s not the headline numbers that caught our eye in this report, but the description of where exactly hydrogen-powered batteries sit within the marketplace. According to the report, while there are clear benefits of hydrogen over the lithium batteries used by Tesla and others, the downside is that they use “more complex processes” and have “about half the wheel to wheel efficiency of battery electric,” concluding that they are more suitable for vehicles with heavier weights and longer trip times – think industrial vehicles and buses.\nIn our consideration of the story, this dramatically reduces the total addressable market (\"TAM\"). Yes, there are a lot of industrial vehicles in the world, but there is a significantly larger market for standard lighter automobiles, boats, light-aircraft and drones.\nOur assessment of the story is enhanced further by reporting from the International Energy Agency, who lay out their future projections for electric light duty vehicles (“LDV”) in the graph below – electric cars essentially. With projections for up to 200 million units expected to be on the road in 2030, up from 22 million today. In our opinion, if investing in the clean and green future of electric vehicles, the LDV space is far more appealing, and the smaller TAM in the hydrogen fuel cell space is a concern to the company's long-term prospects.\n(Source :IEA 2021 Report)\nThe contrary thesis for PLUG\nWe should also consider the counter argument to our thesis on the PLUG story. The bulls will be screaming that despite the smaller market, many companies have been highly profitable while cornering a certain segment of a larger market. That would undoubtedly be a fair assessment to make overall; however, do we consider that PLUG is best placed to do so?\nIn the heavy duty vehicle and hydrogen power market, there are already firms such as Proterra (PTRA), who have proof of concept and regular sales in electric buses. Plus it has become apparent that heavyweight competitors are entering the space, with General Motors' (GM )plans to supply fuel cells for locomotive trains. With this in mind, it is difficult to see PLUG capturing a significant portion of the smaller TAM that we defined earlier. Our thesis is that they may get squeezed out by this competition in the longer term.\nThat being said, the company management clearly forecasts a bright future. Their impressive September 2020 slide deck highlights their forecasts of an incredible surge in revenue growth to $1.2 billion in annual sales and $250 billion in operating EBITDA. This impressive growth will be fuelled by expansion of their existing operations and development of new market segments, such as hydrogen power plants, refueling stations, heavy duty electric vehicles, airplanes and even a \"gigafactory.\"\nThe coining of a phrase synonymous with Tesla, via their gigafactory plans, may have whet the appetite of some investors. However, we are firmly in the let’s wait and see camp here. Firstly, on the revenue side, even excluding the 2020 annual loss and writing off to the restatement issues mentioned earlier, it’s hard to gather where the $1 billion figure comes from. That would be an approximate 6.5-fold increase on the 2019 annual revenues ($150 million) in a two and a half year period; pretty ambitious? Not quite as ambitious as doing so while increasing EBITDA to $250 million from a historic loss-making position, while presumably also increasing capital expenditure to fund their gigafactory, hydrogen plant, plane and truck expansions? Unfortunately, we are struggling to see the math.\nOur conclusions on Plug Power\nIn a global environment currently shifting toward a greener and cleaner world, fuelled by more carbon efficient vehicles, it is no surprise that investors have high hopes for a stock such as PLUG. It is easy to read their marketing material and fall in love with the story and the projections. It's encouraging to see the bold plans that management have for the company; however, we would like to see more results before assuming that these can be executed.\nFrom the research we have undertaken, we believe that the total addressable market for PLUG is smaller than currently perceived by the bulls. Long-term trends suggest that lithium batteries will be the clear leader in fuelling our greener future and we believe the hydrogen market will be considerably smaller, impacting PLUG's ability to grow. When considering this, alongside the strong competition within their subsector, the accounting and litigation red flags we noted earlier, we believe that PLUG may continue to see multiple contraction and a reduction in market cap - hence our bearish outlook at this point in time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164156609,"gmtCreate":1624183954801,"gmtModify":1634009697919,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and 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please like and cooment","listText":"Hello please like and cooment","text":"Hello please like and cooment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185573855","repostId":"1147529363","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":141201840,"gmtCreate":1625873050780,"gmtModify":1633936608728,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141201840","repostId":"2150030193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150281529,"gmtCreate":1624907404761,"gmtModify":1633947207394,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like n comment","listText":"Please like n comment","text":"Please like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150281529","repostId":"1182036516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182036516","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624892087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182036516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182036516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\n","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价涨超5%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 22:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称三大芯片制造商支持收购Arm，英伟达股价上涨逾5%，创新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05201fd147f1f824ea42bb1d0bcac789\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Three major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support&nbsp;Nvidia‘s&nbsp;proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，三大芯片制造商已出面表示，他们支持英伟达收购英国芯片设计公司Arm的提议。</blockquote></p><p> Last September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from&nbsp;SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.</p><p><blockquote>去年9月，英伟达（股票代码：NVDA）宣布以400亿美元现金和股票从软银集团（SFTBY）手中收购Arm，这笔交易将使软银成为英伟达的最大投资者。鉴于Arm作为芯片行业微处理器设计领先供应商的地位，该交易吸引了监管机构和其他芯片公司的广泛审查。几乎所有的智能手机都使用基于Arm设计的处理器。</blockquote></p><p> But the U.K.’s&nbsp;<i>Sunday Times</i>&nbsp;over the weekend&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based&nbsp;MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.</p><p><blockquote>但英国的<i>星期日泰晤士报</i>周末有报道称，Arm的三个重要客户——博通(AVGO)、Marvell(MRVL)和台湾联发科(2454.TW)——已批准该交易。记者无法立即联系到任何相关公司置评。</blockquote></p><p> Citi analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.</p><p><blockquote>花旗分析师Atif Malk周日在一份研究报告中写道，该报告是拟议交易向前迈出的一大步。他认为，鉴于英伟达公开承诺加大对Arm英国业务的投资，英国可能会批准此次合并。但他仍然看到了相当大的障碍，尤其是在中国。</blockquote></p><p> “With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道：“随着美国继续积极反对中国在科技竞赛中获胜，我们认为中国不太可能支持一项可能导致他们失去Arm准入权的交易。”“如果英伟达找到一种方法，将Arm中国子公司保留为一个独立实体，而无法访问任何[图形处理器或人工智能]IP，那么就有办法获得美国和中国监管机构的批准。”</blockquote></p><p> Malik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.</p><p><blockquote>马利克说，他认为获得批准的道路仍然狭窄。他现在认为获得批准的可能性为30%，高于之前估计的10%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182036516","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 5% to a new high on Report Three Key Chip Makers Endorse Bid for Arm.\n\nThree major chip makers have reportedly stepped up to say they support Nvidia‘s proposed acquisition of the U.K.-based chip-design house Arm.\nLast September, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) announced a deal to acquire Arm from SoftBank Group(SFTBY) for $40 billion in cash and stock in a transaction that would make SoftBank the largest investor in Nvidia. The deal has attracted considerable scrutiny from both regulators and other chip companies, given Arm’s position as a leading provider of microprocessor designs to the chip industry. Almost all smartphones use processors based on Arm designs.\nBut the U.K.’s Sunday Times over the weekend reported that three important Arm customers—Broadcom(AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), and Taiwan-based MediaTek(2454.TW)—have endorsed the transaction. None of the companies involved could immediately be reached for comment.\nCiti analyst Atif Malk wrote in a research note Sunday that the report is a big step forward for the proposed deal. He thinks the U.K. likely will approve the combination, given Nvidia’s public commitment to investing more in Arm’s U.K. operations. But he still sees considerable hurdles, in particular in China.\n“With the U.S. continuing to be aggressive against China winning in a tech race, we see China less likely to support a deal that would see them potentially losing access to Arm,” he wrote in a research note. “If Nvidia finds a way to keep the Arm China subsidiary as a separate entity without access to any [graphics processor or artificial intelligence] IP then there is a path to get both U.S. and China regulatory approval.”\nMalik says he says the path to approval remains narrow. He now sees a 30% chance of approval, up from a previous estimate of 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164156609,"gmtCreate":1624183954801,"gmtModify":1634009697919,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and 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[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c8610437489a04fc5a86bc088f6afd","width":"1080","height":"580"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386779649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185573855,"gmtCreate":1623663305677,"gmtModify":1634030490292,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello please like and cooment","listText":"Hello please like and cooment","text":"Hello please like and cooment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185573855","repostId":"1147529363","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347510258,"gmtCreate":1618500807674,"gmtModify":1634292470917,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347510258","repostId":"347662734","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":347662734,"gmtCreate":1618493888228,"gmtModify":1618493888228,"author":{"id":"3575000374358363","authorId":"3575000374358363","name":"Borui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22e73c6d20840bd1baa9e6791b7fce7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575000374358363","idStr":"3575000374358363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>割肉离场 关注价格 等机会再进","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>割肉离场 关注价格 等机会再进","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$割肉离场 关注价格 等机会再进","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347662734","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346765559,"gmtCreate":1618114974371,"gmtModify":1634294829251,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice ariticles. Please&nbsp; like","listText":"Nice ariticles. Please&nbsp; like","text":"Nice ariticles. Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346765559","repostId":"2126038125","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":304048192,"gmtCreate":1605099037916,"gmtModify":1703836216171,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>这个是wave什么?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>这个是wave什么?","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$这个是wave什么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304048192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","idStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184910613,"gmtCreate":1623680497332,"gmtModify":1634030163726,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>to the moon&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>to the moon&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$to the moon [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184910613","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198510846,"gmtCreate":1620969118485,"gmtModify":1634194866598,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198510846","repostId":"1149765041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149765041","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620948199,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149765041?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase revenue tripled from last quarter,To Offer Dogecoin In 6 To 8 Weeks<blockquote>Coinbase收入较上季度增长两倍，将在6至8周内提供狗狗币</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149765041","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Coinbase shares were once up about 4% in after-hours trading Thursday, after reporting that revenue ","content":"<p>Coinbase&nbsp;shares were&nbsp;once up about 4% in after-hours trading Thursday, after reporting that revenue and net income skyrocketed in the first quarter of 2021 as the cryptocurrency trading platform capitalized on a boom in crypto prices and corresponding interest from investors. The results largely matched estimates that Coinbasedelivered on April 6, about a week before its public debut.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase股价在周四盘后交易中一度上涨约4%，此前该加密货币交易平台报告称，由于加密货币价格的飙升和投资者的相应兴趣，2021年第一季度的收入和净利润飙升。这一结果与Coinbase4月6日（即其首次公开亮相前约一周）的预期基本相符。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d62b42f65e0e85aff0a649aaa0659e42\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here'show the cryptocurrency exchange didin its first earnings report since&nbsp;the company's direct listingin April:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该加密货币交易所自该公司四月份直接上市以来的首份收益报告：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>$3.05 per share</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$1.80 billion, up from $585 million in the previous quarter.</li></ul>The company's net profit for the quarter was over $771 million, more than fourfold over Q4 2020's figure of $177 million and more than 24 times higher than the year-ago quarter's profit.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股3.05美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>18亿美元，高于上一季度的5.85亿美元。</li></ul>该公司本季度净利润超过7.71亿美元，是2020年第四季度1.77亿美元的四倍多，是去年同期利润的24倍多。</blockquote></p><p>On the earnings call, the company said that it planned to list dogecoin in the next six to eight weeks. The meme-inspired cryptocurrency was up as much as 26,000% in the last six months, before falling after Elon Musk's \"Saturday Night Live\" hosting debut, in which he called dogecoin a \"hustle.\"</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，该公司表示，计划在未来六到八周内将狗狗币上市。这种受模因启发的加密货币在过去六个月内上涨了26,000%，但在埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)在《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)主持首次亮相后下跌，他在其中称狗狗币为“骗局”。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase's fate is tethered to the performance of digital assets like bitcoin. Roughly 94% of the company's net revenue in the first quarter came from transaction fees from trading. In an introductory note, the company noted that bitcoin prices nearly doubled during the quarter, and ether prices almost tripled.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase的命运与比特币等数字资产的表现息息相关。该公司第一季度大约94%的净收入来自交易的交易费用。该公司在介绍性说明中指出，本季度比特币价格几乎翻了一番，乙醚价格几乎翻了两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase fees, which account for the bulk sum of the company's revenue, are higher than some rivals. When asked about this, CFO Alesia Haas doubled down on the company's strategy, suggesting margins will remain high for the cryptocurrency exchange.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase的费用占该公司收入的大部分，高于一些竞争对手。当被问及此事时，首席财务官阿莱西亚·哈斯(Alesia Haas)加倍强调了公司的战略，暗示加密货币交易所的利润率将保持在高位。</blockquote></p><p>\"We're not trying to win on fees,\" said Haas. \"We're not trying to compete on fees. We're competing on being the most trusted.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们并不是想在费用上获胜，”哈斯说。“我们不是想在费用上竞争。我们是在竞争最值得信赖的人。”</blockquote></p><p>Haas told CNBC that the company's main focus in the first quarter was reliability. \"We are dealing with unprecedented growth in demand, and our focus was making sure that our exchange stayed up.\"</p><p><blockquote>哈斯告诉CNBC，该公司第一季度的主要关注点是可靠性。“我们正在应对前所未有的需求增长，我们的重点是确保我们的交易所保持运转。”</blockquote></p><p>Monthly transacting users more than doubled from the previous quarter, from 2.8 million to 6.1 million. Coinbase's 56 million verified users, along with record-breaking price moves in the crypto market, led trading volume to more than triple from the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>月度交易用户比上一季度增加了一倍多，从280万增加到610万。Coinbase拥有5600万经过验证的用户，加上加密货币市场破纪录的价格走势，导致交易量比上一季度增加了两倍多。</blockquote></p><p>In its release, Coinbase did not offer detailed revenue nor earnings guidance for either Q2 or the full year, warning that, \"As we have previously discussed, it is important for investors to remember that our business is inherently unpredictable.\" However, it offered guidance of between 5.5 million and 9.0 million monthly transacting users for the full year, depending on crypto prices, and predicted that annual average net revenue would exceed the historic mark of $35 to $45 that it's averaged for the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase在其新闻稿中没有提供第二季度或全年的详细收入或盈利指引，并警告说，“正如我们之前讨论的，投资者必须记住，我们的业务本质上是不可预测的。”然而，它提供了全年每月550万至900万交易用户的指导，具体取决于加密货币价格，并预测年平均净收入将超过过去两年平均35至45美元的历史大关。</blockquote></p><p>During last month's direct listing,&nbsp;Coinbase opened at $381 per share&nbsp;and was briefly valued atas much as $100 billion, a landmark event for the cryptocurrency industry.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的直接上市期间，Coinbase开盘价为每股381美元，估值一度高达1000亿美元，这是加密货币行业的里程碑式事件。</blockquote></p><p>Excluding the after-hours move, Coinbase stock has fallen about 30.4% since going public on April 14, while theNasdaqfell 5.3% over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>排除盘后走势，Coinbase股价自4月14日上市以来已下跌约30.4%，而纳斯达克指数同期下跌5.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase revenue tripled from last quarter,To Offer Dogecoin In 6 To 8 Weeks<blockquote>Coinbase收入较上季度增长两倍，将在6至8周内提供狗狗币</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase revenue tripled from last quarter,To Offer Dogecoin In 6 To 8 Weeks<blockquote>Coinbase收入较上季度增长两倍，将在6至8周内提供狗狗币</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-14 07:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Coinbase&nbsp;shares were&nbsp;once up about 4% in after-hours trading Thursday, after reporting that revenue and net income skyrocketed in the first quarter of 2021 as the cryptocurrency trading platform capitalized on a boom in crypto prices and corresponding interest from investors. The results largely matched estimates that Coinbasedelivered on April 6, about a week before its public debut.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase股价在周四盘后交易中一度上涨约4%，此前该加密货币交易平台报告称，由于加密货币价格的飙升和投资者的相应兴趣，2021年第一季度的收入和净利润飙升。这一结果与Coinbase4月6日（即其首次公开亮相前约一周）的预期基本相符。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d62b42f65e0e85aff0a649aaa0659e42\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Here'show the cryptocurrency exchange didin its first earnings report since&nbsp;the company's direct listingin April:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该加密货币交易所自该公司四月份直接上市以来的首份收益报告：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li><b>Earnings:</b>$3.05 per share</li><li><b>Revenue:</b>$1.80 billion, up from $585 million in the previous quarter.</li></ul>The company's net profit for the quarter was over $771 million, more than fourfold over Q4 2020's figure of $177 million and more than 24 times higher than the year-ago quarter's profit.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>每股3.05美元</li><li><b>收入：</b>18亿美元，高于上一季度的5.85亿美元。</li></ul>该公司本季度净利润超过7.71亿美元，是2020年第四季度1.77亿美元的四倍多，是去年同期利润的24倍多。</blockquote></p><p>On the earnings call, the company said that it planned to list dogecoin in the next six to eight weeks. The meme-inspired cryptocurrency was up as much as 26,000% in the last six months, before falling after Elon Musk's \"Saturday Night Live\" hosting debut, in which he called dogecoin a \"hustle.\"</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，该公司表示，计划在未来六到八周内将狗狗币上市。这种受模因启发的加密货币在过去六个月内上涨了26,000%，但在埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)在《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)主持首次亮相后下跌，他在其中称狗狗币为“骗局”。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase's fate is tethered to the performance of digital assets like bitcoin. Roughly 94% of the company's net revenue in the first quarter came from transaction fees from trading. In an introductory note, the company noted that bitcoin prices nearly doubled during the quarter, and ether prices almost tripled.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase的命运与比特币等数字资产的表现息息相关。该公司第一季度大约94%的净收入来自交易的交易费用。该公司在介绍性说明中指出，本季度比特币价格几乎翻了一番，乙醚价格几乎翻了两倍。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase fees, which account for the bulk sum of the company's revenue, are higher than some rivals. When asked about this, CFO Alesia Haas doubled down on the company's strategy, suggesting margins will remain high for the cryptocurrency exchange.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase的费用占该公司收入的大部分，高于一些竞争对手。当被问及此事时，首席财务官阿莱西亚·哈斯(Alesia Haas)加倍强调了公司的战略，暗示加密货币交易所的利润率将保持在高位。</blockquote></p><p>\"We're not trying to win on fees,\" said Haas. \"We're not trying to compete on fees. We're competing on being the most trusted.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们并不是想在费用上获胜，”哈斯说。“我们不是想在费用上竞争。我们是在竞争最值得信赖的人。”</blockquote></p><p>Haas told CNBC that the company's main focus in the first quarter was reliability. \"We are dealing with unprecedented growth in demand, and our focus was making sure that our exchange stayed up.\"</p><p><blockquote>哈斯告诉CNBC，该公司第一季度的主要关注点是可靠性。“我们正在应对前所未有的需求增长，我们的重点是确保我们的交易所保持运转。”</blockquote></p><p>Monthly transacting users more than doubled from the previous quarter, from 2.8 million to 6.1 million. Coinbase's 56 million verified users, along with record-breaking price moves in the crypto market, led trading volume to more than triple from the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>月度交易用户比上一季度增加了一倍多，从280万增加到610万。Coinbase拥有5600万经过验证的用户，加上加密货币市场破纪录的价格走势，导致交易量比上一季度增加了两倍多。</blockquote></p><p>In its release, Coinbase did not offer detailed revenue nor earnings guidance for either Q2 or the full year, warning that, \"As we have previously discussed, it is important for investors to remember that our business is inherently unpredictable.\" However, it offered guidance of between 5.5 million and 9.0 million monthly transacting users for the full year, depending on crypto prices, and predicted that annual average net revenue would exceed the historic mark of $35 to $45 that it's averaged for the last two years.</p><p><blockquote>Coinbase在其新闻稿中没有提供第二季度或全年的详细收入或盈利指引，并警告说，“正如我们之前讨论的，投资者必须记住，我们的业务本质上是不可预测的。”然而，它提供了全年每月550万至900万交易用户的指导，具体取决于加密货币价格，并预测年平均净收入将超过过去两年平均35至45美元的历史大关。</blockquote></p><p>During last month's direct listing,&nbsp;Coinbase opened at $381 per share&nbsp;and was briefly valued atas much as $100 billion, a landmark event for the cryptocurrency industry.</p><p><blockquote>在上个月的直接上市期间，Coinbase开盘价为每股381美元，估值一度高达1000亿美元，这是加密货币行业的里程碑式事件。</blockquote></p><p>Excluding the after-hours move, Coinbase stock has fallen about 30.4% since going public on April 14, while theNasdaqfell 5.3% over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>排除盘后走势，Coinbase股价自4月14日上市以来已下跌约30.4%，而纳斯达克指数同期下跌5.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149765041","content_text":"Coinbase shares were once up about 4% in after-hours trading Thursday, after reporting that revenue and net income skyrocketed in the first quarter of 2021 as the cryptocurrency trading platform capitalized on a boom in crypto prices and corresponding interest from investors. The results largely matched estimates that Coinbasedelivered on April 6, about a week before its public debut.Here'show the cryptocurrency exchange didin its first earnings report since the company's direct listingin April:Earnings:$3.05 per shareRevenue:$1.80 billion, up from $585 million in the previous quarter.The company's net profit for the quarter was over $771 million, more than fourfold over Q4 2020's figure of $177 million and more than 24 times higher than the year-ago quarter's profit.On the earnings call, the company said that it planned to list dogecoin in the next six to eight weeks. The meme-inspired cryptocurrency was up as much as 26,000% in the last six months, before falling after Elon Musk's \"Saturday Night Live\" hosting debut, in which he called dogecoin a \"hustle.\"Coinbase's fate is tethered to the performance of digital assets like bitcoin. Roughly 94% of the company's net revenue in the first quarter came from transaction fees from trading. In an introductory note, the company noted that bitcoin prices nearly doubled during the quarter, and ether prices almost tripled.Coinbase fees, which account for the bulk sum of the company's revenue, are higher than some rivals. When asked about this, CFO Alesia Haas doubled down on the company's strategy, suggesting margins will remain high for the cryptocurrency exchange.\"We're not trying to win on fees,\" said Haas. \"We're not trying to compete on fees. We're competing on being the most trusted.\"Haas told CNBC that the company's main focus in the first quarter was reliability. \"We are dealing with unprecedented growth in demand, and our focus was making sure that our exchange stayed up.\"Monthly transacting users more than doubled from the previous quarter, from 2.8 million to 6.1 million. Coinbase's 56 million verified users, along with record-breaking price moves in the crypto market, led trading volume to more than triple from the previous quarter.In its release, Coinbase did not offer detailed revenue nor earnings guidance for either Q2 or the full year, warning that, \"As we have previously discussed, it is important for investors to remember that our business is inherently unpredictable.\" However, it offered guidance of between 5.5 million and 9.0 million monthly transacting users for the full year, depending on crypto prices, and predicted that annual average net revenue would exceed the historic mark of $35 to $45 that it's averaged for the last two years.During last month's direct listing, Coinbase opened at $381 per share and was briefly valued atas much as $100 billion, a landmark event for the cryptocurrency industry.Excluding the after-hours move, Coinbase stock has fallen about 30.4% since going public on April 14, while theNasdaqfell 5.3% over the same period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346723132,"gmtCreate":1618115513626,"gmtModify":1634294825396,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Anyone tried their software and car??[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"Anyone tried their software and car??[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"Anyone tried their software and car??[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346723132","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":805097606,"gmtCreate":1627819615005,"gmtModify":1633756144229,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞</a>看不到财政报报告","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$Pfizer(PFE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞</a>看不到财政报报告","text":"$Pfizer(PFE)$@爱发红包的虎妞看不到财政报报告","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805097606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800649063,"gmtCreate":1627300979052,"gmtModify":1633766387431,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800649063","repostId":"1193811590","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193811590","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627298505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193811590?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193811590","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.</li>  <li>The influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.</li>  <li>But GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.</li>  <li>Unless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef42c790928444bac7fd163c42e706\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Brandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站利用其臭名昭著的轧空机会，通过发行股票筹集了超过15亿美元的资金。</li><li>现金的涌入和激进投资者的参与让该股的基本面重新燃起了一些希望。</li><li>但游戏驿站的最终灭亡只是被推迟了。物理媒体正在衰落，无盘游戏机不可避免，该公司未能多元化进入任何增长行业。</li><li>除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则请远离。任何预计游戏驿站股价在两年多后会大幅上涨的人都在希望出现奇迹。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>布兰迪·里昂摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GME狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> The short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.</p><p><blockquote>1月份游戏驿站(GME)从20美元升至480美元高点的轧空持续时间令人印象深刻。在跌至50美元区间后，近5个月来一直保持在100美元以上。迄今为止，游戏驿站已利用这一优势筹集了15亿美元现金。</blockquote></p><p> That's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;they raised.</p><p><blockquote>这超过了他们年初的全部市值，所以他们的地位确实有了显着改善。他们偿还了大部分长期债务，下面的图表甚至没有反映他们最近筹集的11亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2494b2f5466e9ef18884e8a5cf42531b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Their immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.</p><p><blockquote>他们眼前的未来已经确定，但长期前景没有改变。除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则没有理由认为GME的基本面价值可以走高。他们拥有的约20亿美元现金远不及他们130亿美元的市值。为了弥补这一差距，你需要相信他们的业务价值数十亿美元，但它目前正在消亡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务</b></blockquote></p><p> GameStop's&nbsp;core business&nbsp;is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站的核心业务是视频游戏硬件和软件（主要是实体光盘），其余11%的收入来自收藏品。</blockquote></p><p> Physical videogame discs have been&nbsp;in decline&nbsp;for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the&nbsp;start&nbsp;of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).</p><p><blockquote>实体视频游戏光盘的衰落与DVD电影的原因相同——直接数字下载正在取代它们。在2013年PS4/Xbox One一代开始时，大约10%的游戏机销售是数字的。到2017年，这一比例为50/50，到2019年为63%，到2020年为72%（可能受到疫情的推动）。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.</p><p><blockquote>他们的收入趋势似乎跟随实体游戏的下降。你还可以看到在疫情关闭商店之前，业绩就在恶化。你可以将这种表现归咎于游戏机周期的季节性（2013年推出第四代，2020年推出第五代），但尽管毛利率萎缩，收入仍低于上一个后期游戏机周期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57826163b427cb331296fa83656d0ab5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not Exactly Like Blockbuster</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不太像百视达</b></blockquote></p><p> The trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.</p><p><blockquote>实体游戏的趋势是游戏驿站未来的最大因素，因此值得分析消费者和游戏机制造商转向数字游戏的动机。索尼(SONY)的PlayStation和微软(MSFT)的Xbox都在最新一代游戏机中首次发布了无光盘版本。它们比标准版本便宜100美元，并有可能为所有游戏机都放弃光盘驱动器的未来打开大门。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2de24c967d3874247ed82241f996ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: PlayStation.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：PlayStation.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们应该考虑对消费者的好处。他们转向数字游戏的速度可能已经显示了他们的偏好，但实体游戏仍然有优势。与下载不同，您可以将光盘转售或赠送给他人。对于二手游戏，游戏驿站提供退货服务，这样你就可以尝试一款游戏，如果你不喜欢它，可以在7天内退货。PlayStation和Xbox通常不允许他们的数字商店退货，除非有购买错误。最后一个好处是光盘存储数据，这节省了控制台硬盘上的一些空间。</blockquote></p><p> The case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.</p><p><blockquote>数字游戏的情况类似于流媒体和DVD。避开商店，直接从你的主机下载游戏。虽然下载时间可能会抵消这种好处，但有新的改进允许玩家在游戏发布前一天晚上下载或预下载游戏时访问游戏的一部分。您也不必担心存储和切换物理光盘，可以登录您的帐户，从不同的主机访问您的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Console Makers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏机制造商</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Console developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机开发者比消费者更有动力推动数字下载。他们可以通过游戏机上的数字商店向消费者销售游戏，这将游戏驿站等零售商排除在外。他们可以保留更多利润或为游戏玩家提供更好的折扣。还有一个考虑是，价格低100美元的游戏机与PC或任天堂Switch等替代品相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> A significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month&nbsp;Xbox Game Pass&nbsp;that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.</p><p><blockquote>对实体游戏的一个重大但被忽视的威胁是PlayStation和Xbox都提供的负担得起的游戏订阅服务。二手游戏的最大优势是，它们可以卖给第一个消费者，所以你可以找到大量负担得起的、稍微旧一点的二手游戏，并在完成后从中赚钱。但我建议，像每月15美元的Xbox Game Pass这样的服务可以比二手游戏更好地满足以价值为导向的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcff87c4810c6ece2b99d70a7dd05ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.</p><p><blockquote>如果开发者提供对他们的旧目录的负担得起的访问，游戏玩家就不需要担心负担得起的二手游戏。这对开发商来说是有意义的，因为他们无论如何都不会从二手游戏销售中赚钱。通过让玩家玩旧游戏，他们可能会被说服购买最新的续集或付费DLC。</blockquote></p><p> Another argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.</p><p><blockquote>磁盘驱动器的另一个论点是向后兼容以前的控制台。这一点完全不成立，因为新一代游戏机是数字向后兼容的，允许用户将他们从老一代购买的游戏转移到新游戏机上。</blockquote></p><p> An additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.</p><p><blockquote>另一个争论是，光盘驱动器将继续存在，因为它们也可以用作蓝光播放器。事实是，DVD/蓝光远不如实体游戏重要。从Q2 2020年开始的过去四个季度，DVD/蓝光销售额从2010年的100亿美元下降到不到30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，购买一台数字游戏机的100美元折扣足以购买一台独立的蓝光播放器，这样观众就可以去其他地方，如果他们不想要游戏机，就不会有动力去购买游戏机。另一种说法是，失去蓝光功能不应该影响对游戏机的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都没有放弃光盘驱动器，也可能不会放弃下一代光盘驱动器，最大的原因是他们担心竞争会接管零售分销渠道。2020年，72%的主机软件销售额是数字化的，这一数字只会随着时间的推移而增长，但即使是剩下的28%也仍然有意义。如果他们中只有一个放弃了光盘驱动器，竞争对手可以保留它，并成为唯一在游戏驿站和其他零售商销售的人。因此，这两款游戏机都有可能保留光盘驱动器，直到物理光盘真正成为市场的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uncertain Future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站面临的问题是，即使游戏机制造商不试图在新一代中淘汰光盘，市场也在萎缩，而且已经萎缩了十多年。游戏驿站在他们的市场上也不是唯一的，因为你可以在沃尔玛、塔吉特、百思买、亚马逊买同样的产品（二手游戏除外），甚至在易贝和其他网站上买到二手游戏。</blockquote></p><p> With so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此多的竞争对手，游戏驿站试图通过提供更好的服务和拥有知识渊博的员工来脱颖而出。但他们自己的激进投资者瑞安·科恩(Ryan Cohen)发现商店的货架上布满灰尘，客户服务差，货架空空如也。听起来，游戏驿站将不得不花钱让她们的零售体验达到标准。当这么多优秀的零售商以同样的价格销售同样的产品时，很难脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> Even thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.</p><p><blockquote>即使是2020年三分之一的销售额来自电子商务，也必须与亚马逊和所有其他电子商务平台竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfc710890a2903c5e849489bb962a26\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd6b6ac51b05627bb8d471a954b385c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.</p><p><blockquote>你可以在亚马逊或Walmart.com上找到完全相同的游戏，与游戏驿站的2-5天运输相比，这两个游戏实际上有1天和2天运输。在线销售的护城河甚至可能不如零售，因为购买体验非常相似，而游戏驿站永远不会拥有亚马逊那样的分销和营销规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base could<i>become</i>since they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于游戏驿站的零售店基础<i>成为</i>因为他们是最大的专门从事视频游戏的零售品牌，仍然拥有4000多家商店。问题是，自2014年开始关闭商店以来，游戏驿站有多年的尝试，当时的首席执行官表示，他们将扩展到“与游戏相关的技术领域”。这些年来，他们试图销售复古/经典视频游戏，但未能推出游戏订阅服务，并做出了许多改变业务的承诺。2019年，即将离任的首席执行官George Sherman表示，他的游戏驿站2.0计划将把商店变成一种“文化体验”，一个“在购买前闲逛和尝试游戏”的地方。Ryan Cohen关于糟糕的零售体验和销售额持续下降的报告表明，到目前为止，他们的尝试都没有奏效。如果有一种方法可以改变他们的商店，以应对视频游戏数字化的挑战，你会认为他们的一位首席执行官在过去十年中找到了这种方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> A long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站这样成功的希望渺茫的公司在深度价值价格下具有投资潜力，但180美元/股的情况显然并非如此。他们的企业价值为11B美元，但自2018年以来没有显着的FCF或EBITDA，并且随着时间的推移，他们的市场将继续萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141ee00d085dd23d918a860df10739d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站的交易价格是大多数可比股票估值的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> Best Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.</p><p><blockquote>百思买(BBY)多年来一直在增长，盈利稳定，但EV/销售额为0.5，而游戏驿站为2.1。塔吉特(TGT)和其他零售业领导者的EV/销售额低于1.5，显然不像游戏驿站那样对其业务构成生存威胁。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站需要盈利能力大幅好转才能证明这一估值的合理性。随着他们的核心市场迅速萎缩，迄今为止每一次多元化尝试都失败了，该股似乎被严重高估，如果他们不能盈利，该业务可能几乎一文不值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Still Isn't A Short</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GME仍然不是空头</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该股的高估令人信服，但它似乎并不是一个令人信服的空头。根据其业务状况，游戏驿站的估值没有理由高于每股100美元，但这并没有阻止其在最初的挤压后几个月内保持在该范围以上。如果没有明确的催化剂或想法来最终使股价符合其业务现实（这可能需要数年时间），我将远离空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> If GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.</p><p><blockquote>如果游戏驿站在股价高企时巧妙地增加股票发行次数，他们可能会带来数十亿美元的额外现金。自6月份发行10亿美元ATM以来，股价一直保持不变，因此他们或许能够更进一步。以180美元/股的价格，每出售10亿美元的股票可带来每股约14美元的现金，而目前每股约为27美元。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，足够多的股票发行可能会压低股价，但如果该股同时飙升至400美元以上或以上的高点，任何做空该股的人都有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Even if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.</p><p><blockquote>即使GME股价不再达到这些高点，它们也可能会在当前水平附近停留一段时间。出于我在关于Robinhood的文章中概述的原因，越来越多的赌徒进入股市。GME仍然是最臭名昭著的模因股票，纯粹的投机兴趣可能会使股价在很长一段时间内保持在这个范围内。耐心而谨慎的卖空者也许能够管理头寸以获得可观的回报，但不确定性和波动性应该会鼓励大多数投资者远离任何一方的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.</p><p><blockquote>GME股票的模因将在某个时候遇到游戏驿站业务恶化和估值过高的现实。股票发行带来的数十亿美元将偿还他们的债务并使他们在短期内继续经营，但几乎不可能证明目前130亿美元的估值是合理的。各方面的竞争以及在衰退的市场中缺乏任何差异化将阻止他们获得可观的资本回报。该业务最终将被定价为生存受到威胁且几乎无法盈利的零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> If you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.</p><p><blockquote>如果你不同意，欢迎在下面分享你的想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Is Likely An Eventual Zero - But You Still Shouldn't Short It<blockquote>游戏驿站最终可能为零——但你仍然不应该做空它</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 19:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>GameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.</li>  <li>The influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.</li>  <li>But GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.</li>  <li>Unless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53ef42c790928444bac7fd163c42e706\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Brandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站利用其臭名昭著的轧空机会，通过发行股票筹集了超过15亿美元的资金。</li><li>现金的涌入和激进投资者的参与让该股的基本面重新燃起了一些希望。</li><li>但游戏驿站的最终灭亡只是被推迟了。物理媒体正在衰落，无盘游戏机不可避免，该公司未能多元化进入任何增长行业。</li><li>除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则请远离。任何预计游戏驿站股价在两年多后会大幅上涨的人都在希望出现奇迹。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>布兰迪·里昂摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Mania</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GME狂热</b></blockquote></p><p> The short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.</p><p><blockquote>1月份游戏驿站(GME)从20美元升至480美元高点的轧空持续时间令人印象深刻。在跌至50美元区间后，近5个月来一直保持在100美元以上。迄今为止，游戏驿站已利用这一优势筹集了15亿美元现金。</blockquote></p><p> That's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent&nbsp;$1.1 billion&nbsp;they raised.</p><p><blockquote>这超过了他们年初的全部市值，所以他们的地位确实有了显着改善。他们偿还了大部分长期债务，下面的图表甚至没有反映他们最近筹集的11亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2494b2f5466e9ef18884e8a5cf42531b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Their immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.</p><p><blockquote>他们眼前的未来已经确定，但长期前景没有改变。除非您预计会再次出现空头挤压，否则没有理由认为GME的基本面价值可以走高。他们拥有的约20亿美元现金远不及他们130亿美元的市值。为了弥补这一差距，你需要相信他们的业务价值数十亿美元，但它目前正在消亡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务</b></blockquote></p><p> GameStop's&nbsp;core business&nbsp;is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站的核心业务是视频游戏硬件和软件（主要是实体光盘），其余11%的收入来自收藏品。</blockquote></p><p> Physical videogame discs have been&nbsp;in decline&nbsp;for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the&nbsp;start&nbsp;of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).</p><p><blockquote>实体视频游戏光盘的衰落与DVD电影的原因相同——直接数字下载正在取代它们。在2013年PS4/Xbox One一代开始时，大约10%的游戏机销售是数字的。到2017年，这一比例为50/50，到2019年为63%，到2020年为72%（可能受到疫情的推动）。</blockquote></p><p> The trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.</p><p><blockquote>他们的收入趋势似乎跟随实体游戏的下降。你还可以看到在疫情关闭商店之前，业绩就在恶化。你可以将这种表现归咎于游戏机周期的季节性（2013年推出第四代，2020年推出第五代），但尽管毛利率萎缩，收入仍低于上一个后期游戏机周期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57826163b427cb331296fa83656d0ab5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not Exactly Like Blockbuster</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不太像百视达</b></blockquote></p><p> The trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.</p><p><blockquote>实体游戏的趋势是游戏驿站未来的最大因素，因此值得分析消费者和游戏机制造商转向数字游戏的动机。索尼(SONY)的PlayStation和微软(MSFT)的Xbox都在最新一代游戏机中首次发布了无光盘版本。它们比标准版本便宜100美元，并有可能为所有游戏机都放弃光盘驱动器的未来打开大门。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2de24c967d3874247ed82241f996ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: PlayStation.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：PlayStation.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们应该考虑对消费者的好处。他们转向数字游戏的速度可能已经显示了他们的偏好，但实体游戏仍然有优势。与下载不同，您可以将光盘转售或赠送给他人。对于二手游戏，游戏驿站提供退货服务，这样你就可以尝试一款游戏，如果你不喜欢它，可以在7天内退货。PlayStation和Xbox通常不允许他们的数字商店退货，除非有购买错误。最后一个好处是光盘存储数据，这节省了控制台硬盘上的一些空间。</blockquote></p><p> The case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.</p><p><blockquote>数字游戏的情况类似于流媒体和DVD。避开商店，直接从你的主机下载游戏。虽然下载时间可能会抵消这种好处，但有新的改进允许玩家在游戏发布前一天晚上下载或预下载游戏时访问游戏的一部分。您也不必担心存储和切换物理光盘，可以登录您的帐户，从不同的主机访问您的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Console Makers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏机制造商</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Console developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.</p><p><blockquote>游戏机开发者比消费者更有动力推动数字下载。他们可以通过游戏机上的数字商店向消费者销售游戏，这将游戏驿站等零售商排除在外。他们可以保留更多利润或为游戏玩家提供更好的折扣。还有一个考虑是，价格低100美元的游戏机与PC或任天堂Switch等替代品相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> A significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month&nbsp;Xbox Game Pass&nbsp;that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.</p><p><blockquote>对实体游戏的一个重大但被忽视的威胁是PlayStation和Xbox都提供的负担得起的游戏订阅服务。二手游戏的最大优势是，它们可以卖给第一个消费者，所以你可以找到大量负担得起的、稍微旧一点的二手游戏，并在完成后从中赚钱。但我建议，像每月15美元的Xbox Game Pass这样的服务可以比二手游戏更好地满足以价值为导向的客户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcff87c4810c6ece2b99d70a7dd05ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Microsoft.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微软</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Gamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.</p><p><blockquote>如果开发者提供对他们的旧目录的负担得起的访问，游戏玩家就不需要担心负担得起的二手游戏。这对开发商来说是有意义的，因为他们无论如何都不会从二手游戏销售中赚钱。通过让玩家玩旧游戏，他们可能会被说服购买最新的续集或付费DLC。</blockquote></p><p> Another argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.</p><p><blockquote>磁盘驱动器的另一个论点是向后兼容以前的控制台。这一点完全不成立，因为新一代游戏机是数字向后兼容的，允许用户将他们从老一代购买的游戏转移到新游戏机上。</blockquote></p><p> An additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.</p><p><blockquote>另一个争论是，光盘驱动器将继续存在，因为它们也可以用作蓝光播放器。事实是，DVD/蓝光远不如实体游戏重要。从Q2 2020年开始的过去四个季度，DVD/蓝光销售额从2010年的100亿美元下降到不到30亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，购买一台数字游戏机的100美元折扣足以购买一台独立的蓝光播放器，这样观众就可以去其他地方，如果他们不想要游戏机，就不会有动力去购买游戏机。另一种说法是，失去蓝光功能不应该影响对游戏机的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都没有放弃光盘驱动器，也可能不会放弃下一代光盘驱动器，最大的原因是他们担心竞争会接管零售分销渠道。2020年，72%的主机软件销售额是数字化的，这一数字只会随着时间的推移而增长，但即使是剩下的28%也仍然有意义。如果他们中只有一个放弃了光盘驱动器，竞争对手可以保留它，并成为唯一在游戏驿站和其他零售商销售的人。因此，这两款游戏机都有可能保留光盘驱动器，直到物理光盘真正成为市场的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uncertain Future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站面临的问题是，即使游戏机制造商不试图在新一代中淘汰光盘，市场也在萎缩，而且已经萎缩了十多年。游戏驿站在他们的市场上也不是唯一的，因为你可以在沃尔玛、塔吉特、百思买、亚马逊买同样的产品（二手游戏除外），甚至在易贝和其他网站上买到二手游戏。</blockquote></p><p> With so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.</p><p><blockquote>面对如此多的竞争对手，游戏驿站试图通过提供更好的服务和拥有知识渊博的员工来脱颖而出。但他们自己的激进投资者瑞安·科恩(Ryan Cohen)发现商店的货架上布满灰尘，客户服务差，货架空空如也。听起来，游戏驿站将不得不花钱让她们的零售体验达到标准。当这么多优秀的零售商以同样的价格销售同样的产品时，很难脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> Even thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.</p><p><blockquote>即使是2020年三分之一的销售额来自电子商务，也必须与亚马逊和所有其他电子商务平台竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfc710890a2903c5e849489bb962a26\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>GameStop.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd6b6ac51b05627bb8d471a954b385c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"260\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.</p><p><blockquote>你可以在亚马逊或Walmart.com上找到完全相同的游戏，与游戏驿站的2-5天运输相比，这两个游戏实际上有1天和2天运输。在线销售的护城河甚至可能不如零售，因为购买体验非常相似，而游戏驿站永远不会拥有亚马逊那样的分销和营销规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base could<i>become</i>since they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于游戏驿站的零售店基础<i>成为</i>因为他们是最大的专门从事视频游戏的零售品牌，仍然拥有4000多家商店。问题是，自2014年开始关闭商店以来，游戏驿站有多年的尝试，当时的首席执行官表示，他们将扩展到“与游戏相关的技术领域”。这些年来，他们试图销售复古/经典视频游戏，但未能推出游戏订阅服务，并做出了许多改变业务的承诺。2019年，即将离任的首席执行官George Sherman表示，他的游戏驿站2.0计划将把商店变成一种“文化体验”，一个“在购买前闲逛和尝试游戏”的地方。Ryan Cohen关于糟糕的零售体验和销售额持续下降的报告表明，到目前为止，他们的尝试都没有奏效。如果有一种方法可以改变他们的商店，以应对视频游戏数字化的挑战，你会认为他们的一位首席执行官在过去十年中找到了这种方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> A long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.</p><p><blockquote>像游戏驿站这样成功的希望渺茫的公司在深度价值价格下具有投资潜力，但180美元/股的情况显然并非如此。他们的企业价值为11B美元，但自2018年以来没有显着的FCF或EBITDA，并且随着时间的推移，他们的市场将继续萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141ee00d085dd23d918a860df10739d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"478\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> GameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站的交易价格是大多数可比股票估值的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> Best Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.</p><p><blockquote>百思买(BBY)多年来一直在增长，盈利稳定，但EV/销售额为0.5，而游戏驿站为2.1。塔吉特(TGT)和其他零售业领导者的EV/销售额低于1.5，显然不像游戏驿站那样对其业务构成生存威胁。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站需要盈利能力大幅好转才能证明这一估值的合理性。随着他们的核心市场迅速萎缩，迄今为止每一次多元化尝试都失败了，该股似乎被严重高估，如果他们不能盈利，该业务可能几乎一文不值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GME Still Isn't A Short</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GME仍然不是空头</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该股的高估令人信服，但它似乎并不是一个令人信服的空头。根据其业务状况，游戏驿站的估值没有理由高于每股100美元，但这并没有阻止其在最初的挤压后几个月内保持在该范围以上。如果没有明确的催化剂或想法来最终使股价符合其业务现实（这可能需要数年时间），我将远离空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> If GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.</p><p><blockquote>如果游戏驿站在股价高企时巧妙地增加股票发行次数，他们可能会带来数十亿美元的额外现金。自6月份发行10亿美元ATM以来，股价一直保持不变，因此他们或许能够更进一步。以180美元/股的价格，每出售10亿美元的股票可带来每股约14美元的现金，而目前每股约为27美元。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，足够多的股票发行可能会压低股价，但如果该股同时飙升至400美元以上或以上的高点，任何做空该股的人都有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Even if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.</p><p><blockquote>即使GME股价不再达到这些高点，它们也可能会在当前水平附近停留一段时间。出于我在关于Robinhood的文章中概述的原因，越来越多的赌徒进入股市。GME仍然是最臭名昭著的模因股票，纯粹的投机兴趣可能会使股价在很长一段时间内保持在这个范围内。耐心而谨慎的卖空者也许能够管理头寸以获得可观的回报，但不确定性和波动性应该会鼓励大多数投资者远离任何一方的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> The meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.</p><p><blockquote>GME股票的模因将在某个时候遇到游戏驿站业务恶化和估值过高的现实。股票发行带来的数十亿美元将偿还他们的债务并使他们在短期内继续经营，但几乎不可能证明目前130亿美元的估值是合理的。各方面的竞争以及在衰退的市场中缺乏任何差异化将阻止他们获得可观的资本回报。该业务最终将被定价为生存受到威胁且几乎无法盈利的零售公司。</blockquote></p><p> If you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.</p><p><blockquote>如果你不同意，欢迎在下面分享你的想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441316-gamestop-is-likely-an-eventual-zero-but-you-still-shouldnt-short-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193811590","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has taken advantage of its infamous short squeeze to raise more than $1.5 billion by issuing shares.\nThe influx of cash and involvement of activist investors has revived some hope in the fundamental case for this stock.\nBut GameStop's eventual demise has only been delayed. Physical media is declining, disc-less consoles are inevitable, and the company has failed to diversify into any growing industry.\nUnless you expect another short squeeze, stay away. Anyone expecting GameStop shares to be much higher 2+ years from now is hoping for a miracle.\n\nBrandi Lyon Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nGME Mania\nThe short squeeze that sent GameStop (GME) from $20 to a high of $480 in January has been impressively long-lived. After a dip down to the $50 range, it has stayed above $100 for nearly 5 months. GameStop has taken advantage by raising $1.5B in cash so far.\nThat's more than their entire market cap at the beginning of the year, so it's true that their position has improved dramatically. They repaid most of their long-term debt and the charts below don't even reflect the most recent $1.1 billion they raised.\nData by YCharts\nTheir immediate future has been secured, but the long-term outlook hasn't changed. Unless you expect another short squeeze, there's no reason to think GME can go higher on fundamental value. The ~$2B they have in cash doesn't come close to their $13 billion dollar market cap. To make up that gap you would need to believe their business is worth billions, but it's currently in demise.\nThe Business\nGameStop's core business is video game hardware and software (mostly physical discs) and the remaining 11% of revenue comes from collectibles.\nPhysical videogame discs have been in decline for the same reason as DVD movies - direct digital downloads are replacing them. At the start of the PS4/Xbox One generation in 2013, about 10% of console sales were digital. By 2017 it was 50/50, 63% digital by 2019, and 72% during 2020 (probably boosted by the pandemic).\nThe trend in their revenue seems to track the decline in physical games. You can also see performance deteriorating before the pandemic ever closed stores. You could blame that performance on the seasonality of the console cycle (4th gen launched in 2013 and 5th in 2020), but revenue still fell below the previous late-stage console cycle even though gross margins shrunk.\nData by YCharts\nNot Exactly Like Blockbuster\nThe trend in physical games is the biggest factor in GameStop's future, so it's worth analyzing the incentives of both consumers and console makers to switch to digital. Both Sony's (SONY) PlayStation and Microsoft's (MSFT) Xbox have released disc-less versions of their consoles for the first time in the newest generation. They are $100 cheaper than the standard version and potentially open the door to a future where all consoles drop the disc drive.\nSource: PlayStation.com\nFirst, we should consider the benefits to consumers. The rate they've been switching to digital might already show their preference, but physical games still have advantages. Unlike a download, you can re-sell or give discs to another person. For used games, GameStop offers returns so that you can try a game and return it within 7 days if you don't like it. PlayStation and Xbox generally don't allowreturnsfor their digital stores unless there is a purchasing error. The last benefit is that discs store data which saves some space on the hard drive of the console.\nThe case for digital games is similar to streaming vs. DVDs. Avoid the store and download games straight from your console. Although download times could negate that benefit, there are new improvements that allow players to access a portion of a game as the rest downloads or pre-download a game the night before it releases. You also don't have to worry about storing and switching out physical discs, and can log into your account to access your games from a different console.\nConsole Makers\nConsole developers are more directly incentivized than consumers to push digital downloads. They can sell games to consumers through the digital store on their console, which cuts out retailers like GameStop. They could keep more profit or offer better discounts to gamers. There's also the consideration that a console that costs $100 less is more competitive with alternatives like a PC or Nintendo Switch.\nA significant but overlooked threat to physical games is the affordable game subscription services that both PlayStation and Xbox offer. The biggest advantage of used games is that they can be sold beyond the first consumer and so you can find plenty of affordable, slightly older used games and make money back from them when you're done. But I'd suggest services like the $15/month Xbox Game Pass that charge for access to a library of hundreds of games can address value-oriented customers even better than used games.\nMicrosoft.com\nGamers don't need to worry about affordable used games if developers are providing affordable access to their back catalog. It makes sense for the developer because they don't make money from used game sales anyway. By letting gamers play an older title they may be persuaded to purchase the newest sequel or paid DLC.\nAnother argument for the disc drive is backward compatibility with previous consoles. This point falls completely flat because the new generation of consoles is digitallybackward compatible, allowing users to transfer titles they purchased from the now old generation onto the new console.\nAn additional contention is that disc drives will stay because they can also be used as Blu-ray players. The truth is that DVD/Blu-Rays are much less relevant than physical games. DVD/Blu-raysaleshave dropped from $10 Billion in 2010 to less than $3B the past four quarters starting from Q2 2020.\nOn top of that, the $100 discount for buying a digital console is more than enough to buy a stand-alone Blu-ray player, so that audience can go elsewhere and isn't incentivized to buy a game console if they didn't want one already. Another way to put it is that losing Blu-ray capability shouldn't affect demand for consoles.\nThe biggest reason neither company has given up the disc drive yet, and might not next generation, is that they are worried about the competition taking over retail distribution channels. 72% of console software sales were digital in 2020 and that should only grow over time, but even the remaining 28% is still meaningful. If only one of them gave up the disc drive, the competitors could keep it and be the only ones selling in GameStop and other retailers. So it's possible that both consoles will keep disc drives until physical discs are a truly tiny portion of the market.\nUncertain Future\nThe problem for GameStop is that even if the console makers don't try to cut out discs in a new generation, the market is shrinking and has been for over a decade. GameStop isn't alone in their market either, since you can buy the same products (except used games) at Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Amazon, or even used games on eBay and other sites.\nWith so many competitors, GameStop tries to differentiate itself by offering better service and having knowledgeable staff. But their own activist investorRyan Cohendiscovered stores had dusty shelves, poor customer service, and empty racks. From how it sounds, GameStop will have to spend money just to bring their retail experience up to par. It is going to be hard to stand out when so many excellent retailers sell the same product at the same price.\nEven thethirdof sales that were from E-commerce in 2020 have to compete with Amazon and every other e-commerce platform.\nGameStop.com\nAmazon.com\nYou can find the exact same games on Amazon.com or Walmart.com and those two actually have 1-day and 2-day shipping compared to GameStop's 2-5 day shipping. Online sales might even have less of a moat than retail because the buying experience is so comparable and GameStop will never have the distribution and marketing scale that Amazon does.\nA lot is made of what GameStop's retail store base couldbecomesince they are the largest retail brand exclusively dedicated to video games and still have over 4,000 stores. The problem is that GameStop had years to make attempts since they startedclosing storesin 2014 and the then CEO said they would expand to \"gaming-adjacent tech fields”. Over these years they've attempted sellingretro/classicvideo games,failed to launcha game subscription service, and made many promises to change the business. In 2019, now departing CEO George Sherman said his GameStop 2.0 plan would turn stores into a \"cultural experience\" and a place to “hang out and try games before buying\". Ryan Cohen's report of the poor retail experience and a continuing decline in sales shows that none of their attempts have worked so far. If there was a way to transform their stores to compete as video games go digital, you would have expected one of their CEOs to have found it over the past decade.\nValuation\nA long shot for success like GameStop would have investment potential at a deep value price, but that obviously isn't the case at $180/share. They have an enterprise value of $11B but haven't had significant FCF or EBITDA since 2018 and their market will keep shrinking over time.\nData by YCharts\nGameStop trades at double the valuation of most comparable stocks.\nBest Buy (BBY) has been growing for years and is solidly profitable but trades at an EV/Sales of 0.5 compared to GameStop at 2.1. Target (TGT) and other leaders in retail trade at an EV/Sales below 1.5 and clearly don't have the existential threat to their business that GameStop does.\nGameStop would need a massive turnaround in profitability to ever justify this valuation. With their core market shrinking fast and every attempt to diversify having failed so far, it seems like the stock is massively overvalued and the business could be worth next to nothing if they can't turn a profit.\nGME Still Isn't A Short\nEven though the stock is convincingly overvalued, it's doesn't seem like a compelling short. There's no reason why GameStop should be valued above $100 per share based on the condition of their business, but that hasn't stopped it from staying above that range for months after the initial squeeze. Without a clear catalyst or idea as to what will eventually bring shares back in line with the reality of their business, which could take years, I'm going to stay away from a short position.\nIf GameStop deftly times more share offerings when prices are high, they could bring in additional billions of cash. The share price has held up since the $1 billionATM offeringin June, so they might be able to take it even further. At $180/share, each $1B of shares sold brings in about $14 in cash per share on top of the roughly ~$27/share they have now.\nAt some point, enough share offerings could tank the share price, but anyone who is short the stock risks taking a ride if it spikes back to the highs of $400+ or above in the meantime.\nEven if GME shares don't see those highs again, they could stay around the current level for a while. For reasons outlined in my article aboutRobinhood, gamblers are increasingly coming to the stock market. GME is still the most notorious meme stock, and pure speculative interest could keep shares in this range for an untold amount of time. A patient and careful short-seller might be able to manage a position for a decent return, but the uncertainty and volatility should encourage most investors to stay away from a position on either side.\nConclusion\nThe meme of GME stock is going to run into the reality of GameStop's deteriorating business and overvaluation at some point. The several billion dollars from share offerings will pay their debts and keep them in business short-term, but it will be near impossible to justify the current $13 billion valuation. Competition on all fronts and a lack of any differentiation in a declining market will prevent them from making substantial returns on their capital. The business will eventually be priced as the existentially threatened and hardly profitable retail company that it is.\nIf you disagree, feel free to share your thoughts below.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141209192,"gmtCreate":1625872941116,"gmtModify":1633936610533,"author":{"id":"3562130752693399","authorId":"3562130752693399","name":"takleee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14f28ca9ee99ff6f70d96d4f0056a4bc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562130752693399","idStr":"3562130752693399"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141209192","repostId":"1191131157","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}