长兹特的个人主页 - 老虎社区

长兹特

长兹特

伯克利环境经济学

IP属地：山东

38关注

11粉丝

5主题

0勋章

2022-05-10

先别盘活线下，盘活你自个再说吧$36氪(KRKR)$脸都不要了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-02-10

[得意]

@期权小班长:过年应该怎么办，推荐3个锦囊策略

2022-02-10

冲啊兄弟们，年底十倍[财迷] $水滴(WDH)$

2022-01-29

$水滴(WDH)$ 好起来了兄弟们[财迷]

2021-12-22

$蔚来(NIO)$$水滴(WDH)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$遥想19年蔚来股价还是1块多的时候，没敢上车现在决不能错过一年内十倍股的机会现在水滴被严重低估，而且未来国家更加注重保民生，明年水滴有很大概率可能会起飞

2021-01-28

$AMC院线(AMC)$从此不碰妖股

2021-01-28

$AMC院线(AMC)$股市都玩不赢，还做什么他妈的大事，全仓空！

2021-01-20

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$冲啊！

2020-12-28

芒果就是社会的蛆虫，看看把青少年都毒害成什么样了$蔚来(NIO)$

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-25

什么阿猫阿狗都要来上市$蔚来(NIO)$$老虎证券(TIGR)$$美国航空(AAL)$

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-18

$AMC院线(AMC)$跌30个点割肉离场[难过]

2020-12-17

$AMC院线(AMC)$割肉吗[可怜]

2020-12-16

$AMC院线(AMC)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$给老子冲！

2020-12-14

$美国航空(AAL)$冲啊！

2020-12-11

$美国航空(AAL)$德意志银行真是脑瘫，美国航空现在资产怎么着都能会到以前的高点，现在疫苗已经出来了。蔚来汽车一直都是高点还是建议买入，这个就说美国航空价格高了？就这种情况怎么可能破产？反观蔚来有多大的可能能击败积累几百年技术的各大汽车企业？真是屁股决定脑袋，大家不要相信这个玩意

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-11-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$有大单进入了，财报后可能能稳住。在股市中千万不要凭经验做事，就如硬币，它经历了100次反面到你抛第101次的时候中一次的几率反面还是百分之50

2020-11-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@点拾投资:从冥率分布到不确定性，塔勒布的哲学宇宙

2020-11-13

$老虎证券(TIGR)$冲啊，小老虎🐯

2020-11-09

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$$蔚来(NIO)$$老虎证券(TIGR)$我已经把ACB换成老虎了，老虎财报快出了，我本来今天想压一把奥罗拉，但是奥罗拉这个公司烂的很，接近破产状态，而且盘前一瞬间直接拉到四十个点，想入手的时候只能在高价和买彩票没啥区别，随时大机构获利套出老虎财报快出了，这时候入场到财报前最低涨到7

2020-11-07

$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$这个公司绝逼是要涨的，以前关注的人不多，现在因为特殊事件，机构也会重新认识这个公司，随着不断的有大机构加持，这个股价是掉不下去的。这个跟柯达或者一些事件股不一样，拜登当选直接把它的销路打开了，怎么能不涨另外问一个问题，在购买期权的时候怎么才能在开盘的时候抢到，几乎就是开盘几秒就抢光了

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1月份还有1个交易日就结束了，很多人可能对这一个月的交易不是很满意，除了割肉和抄底以外都没有很好的应对策略，寄希望于之后的反弹能够弥补亏损，也希望反弹就发生在下个月。 我在之前的文章：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630475341\" target=\"_blank\">权重股跌破关键支撑位，要等多久才会反弹？</a>里分析过，如此这般大跌的恢复期，短则3个月，长则1年。可能有人觉得我有些夸张，而且对比历史的推测有些刻舟求剑，但结合马斯克之前推特上的预言考虑，金融危机之所以叫做危机，周期理论上不会只持续1个月吧？ 我们可以很乐观的看待全球经济，也可以很期待美联储能站出来救市，但从目前的回调趋势，我们需要先下调对未来的预期，脚踏实地保留后路再乐观展望。 那么请思考一个问题：如果今年大盘收益率是-6%，在保住本金的基础上有所收益需要怎样的策略呢？ 这几天我整理了一下思路，从长线考虑给大家分享三个锦囊，从结构划分可以分为收益有限策略和亏损有限策略。 马斯克和段永平交易背后的逻辑 首先不考虑纯抄底策略。给希望抄底做长线的朋友一个买入点提示：什么时候新闻传出马斯克入场买东西了，什么时候就可以建底仓了。 如果是技术派短期抄底做反弹可以忽略上面的建议，这也引入社区第二类流派，每天追涨杀跌派。不得不说现在很适合做短线，因为涨跌波动剧烈，一天来回十几个点。但对于上班族来说没时间盯盘，而且这也是我不擅长的，所以这类策略的提供建议关注其他人。 由于加息导致估值逻辑转换，所以转换至受益行业或者金融产品也是一个思路，不过我依旧不擅长，但会考虑持续关注这个思路，说不定会有第四个锦囊。 马斯克在抛售股票后预言金融危机，段永平认为2023年170块的苹果是低估值，都指向了同一件事，那就是股价增长的","listText":"春节就不更新了，结合最近的大盘形式给没什么时间看盘的朋友们推荐三个省心长线操作。 1月份还有1个交易日就结束了，很多人可能对这一个月的交易不是很满意，除了割肉和抄底以外都没有很好的应对策略，寄希望于之后的反弹能够弥补亏损，也希望反弹就发生在下个月。 我在之前的文章：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630475341\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>有大单进入了，财报后可能能稳住。在股市中千万不要凭经验做事，就如硬币，它经历了100次反面到你抛第101次的时候中一次的几率反面还是百分之50","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>有大单进入了，财报后可能能稳住。在股市中千万不要凭经验做事，就如硬币，它经历了100次反面到你抛第101次的时候中一次的几率反面还是百分之50","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$有大单进入了，财报后可能能稳住。在股市中千万不要凭经验做事，就如硬币，它经历了100次反面到你抛第101次的时候中一次的几率反面还是百分之50","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebd64cfe5849eee875b546456ac1c09e","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399326255","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566858650737514","authorId":"3566858650737514","name":"Sbsbsb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a36033533b906c860b2f9ac8a3998be","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566858650737514","authorIdStr":"3566858650737514"},"content":"下周财报股价看到多少楼主？","text":"下周财报股价看到多少楼主？","html":"下周财报股价看到多少楼主？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307913233,"gmtCreate":1605394225622,"gmtModify":1703837634868,"author":{"id":"3561788772736906","authorId":"3561788772736906","name":"长兹特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c1a6f671ba6be394f13b513b31a5fa","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561788772736906","authorIdStr":"3561788772736906"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307913233","repostId":"304156546","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":304156546,"gmtCreate":1605182972753,"gmtModify":1703836608641,"author":{"id":"3479274735268971","authorId":"3479274735268971","name":"点拾投资","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/189eb18dedae63fcaf90109b4d16d559","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479274735268971","authorIdStr":"3479274735268971"},"themes":[],"title":"从冥率分布到不确定性，塔勒布的哲学宇宙","htmlText":"导读：塔勒布是我特别喜欢的作者，他的哲学思想包含了一整套对尾部风险的认知框架，名为“INCERTO”，就是意大利语的不确定性。不确定性宇宙横跨五个与极端尾部风险相关的领域：数学、哲学、社会科学、契约论和决策论。基于塔勒布的随机性宇宙，他出版了一系列颠覆常识性思维的书籍：《随机漫步的傻瓜》、《黑天鹅》、《反脆弱》、《非对称风险》等。 近期，我们的志愿者戴国晨精译了塔勒布的硬核新书《Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails》。这本书确实非常学术，好在戴国晨同学是纽约大学统计学研究生毕业，对于塔勒布的数学理论有深刻理解，并且写了上下两部分的读后感《塔勒布新书读后感：基于反脆弱的赔付关系》、《塔勒布量化开篇之作《肥尾分布的统计效应》（下）》。 今天，我们再次把戴国晨的读后感口语化一些，分享一个更加简单易懂的版本，从而让大家能更加理解塔勒布的随机性宇宙，包括：不确定性，冥率分布的世界，极端斯坦，赔率比概率更重要，真正有效的风险管理等等。相信这一篇文章，就能让大家看懂塔勒布的哲学和数学世界。 INCERTO谱系 正态分布和冥率分布 从人性的角度出发，我们都是接受一个正态分布世界，我们小时候学的统计学也是强调世界的正态分布。比如说身高，大部分人是在平均身高附近，在平均数两个标准差的身高人数就很少了，而且这个时间是没有什么极端身高的人存在（比如说身高50厘米的矮子和身高5米的巨人）。塔勒布又把正态分布叫做“平均斯坦”。 但是，这个世界并不完全有正态分布构成，冥率分布出现在许许多多的事情上，这让人觉得，黑天鹅远远比想象的多。比如说，在正态分布的时间，如果两天内市场下跌30%，应该是每天下跌15%左右。但是在冥率分布的时间，可能是一天下跌了29%，另一天下跌了1%。 关于这一点，我们在股票的投资收益上有很强的感受。股票的长期收益率，都是远超银行理财的，但是为什","listText":"导读：塔勒布是我特别喜欢的作者，他的哲学思想包含了一整套对尾部风险的认知框架，名为“INCERTO”，就是意大利语的不确定性。不确定性宇宙横跨五个与极端尾部风险相关的领域：数学、哲学、社会科学、契约论和决策论。基于塔勒布的随机性宇宙，他出版了一系列颠覆常识性思维的书籍：《随机漫步的傻瓜》、《黑天鹅》、《反脆弱》、《非对称风险》等。 近期，我们的志愿者戴国晨精译了塔勒布的硬核新书《Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails》。这本书确实非常学术，好在戴国晨同学是纽约大学统计学研究生毕业，对于塔勒布的数学理论有深刻理解，并且写了上下两部分的读后感《塔勒布新书读后感：基于反脆弱的赔付关系》、《塔勒布量化开篇之作《肥尾分布的统计效应》（下）》。 今天，我们再次把戴国晨的读后感口语化一些，分享一个更加简单易懂的版本，从而让大家能更加理解塔勒布的随机性宇宙，包括：不确定性，冥率分布的世界，极端斯坦，赔率比概率更重要，真正有效的风险管理等等。相信这一篇文章，就能让大家看懂塔勒布的哲学和数学世界。 INCERTO谱系 正态分布和冥率分布 从人性的角度出发，我们都是接受一个正态分布世界，我们小时候学的统计学也是强调世界的正态分布。比如说身高，大部分人是在平均身高附近，在平均数两个标准差的身高人数就很少了，而且这个时间是没有什么极端身高的人存在（比如说身高50厘米的矮子和身高5米的巨人）。塔勒布又把正态分布叫做“平均斯坦”。 但是，这个世界并不完全有正态分布构成，冥率分布出现在许许多多的事情上，这让人觉得，黑天鹅远远比想象的多。比如说，在正态分布的时间，如果两天内市场下跌30%，应该是每天下跌15%左右。但是在冥率分布的时间，可能是一天下跌了29%，另一天下跌了1%。 关于这一点，我们在股票的投资收益上有很强的感受。股票的长期收益率，都是远超银行理财的，但是为什","text":"导读：塔勒布是我特别喜欢的作者，他的哲学思想包含了一整套对尾部风险的认知框架，名为“INCERTO”，就是意大利语的不确定性。不确定性宇宙横跨五个与极端尾部风险相关的领域：数学、哲学、社会科学、契约论和决策论。基于塔勒布的随机性宇宙，他出版了一系列颠覆常识性思维的书籍：《随机漫步的傻瓜》、《黑天鹅》、《反脆弱》、《非对称风险》等。 近期，我们的志愿者戴国晨精译了塔勒布的硬核新书《Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails》。这本书确实非常学术，好在戴国晨同学是纽约大学统计学研究生毕业，对于塔勒布的数学理论有深刻理解，并且写了上下两部分的读后感《塔勒布新书读后感：基于反脆弱的赔付关系》、《塔勒布量化开篇之作《肥尾分布的统计效应》（下）》。 今天，我们再次把戴国晨的读后感口语化一些，分享一个更加简单易懂的版本，从而让大家能更加理解塔勒布的随机性宇宙，包括：不确定性，冥率分布的世界，极端斯坦，赔率比概率更重要，真正有效的风险管理等等。相信这一篇文章，就能让大家看懂塔勒布的哲学和数学世界。 INCERTO谱系 正态分布和冥率分布 从人性的角度出发，我们都是接受一个正态分布世界，我们小时候学的统计学也是强调世界的正态分布。比如说身高，大部分人是在平均身高附近，在平均数两个标准差的身高人数就很少了，而且这个时间是没有什么极端身高的人存在（比如说身高50厘米的矮子和身高5米的巨人）。塔勒布又把正态分布叫做“平均斯坦”。 但是，这个世界并不完全有正态分布构成，冥率分布出现在许许多多的事情上，这让人觉得，黑天鹅远远比想象的多。比如说，在正态分布的时间，如果两天内市场下跌30%，应该是每天下跌15%左右。但是在冥率分布的时间，可能是一天下跌了29%，另一天下跌了1%。 关于这一点，我们在股票的投资收益上有很强的感受。股票的长期收益率，都是远超银行理财的，但是为什","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7ac7149eb84acfba796c34e5e151f8","width":"365","height":"247"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5a52ba45684c7d85133ef785a1afe5","width":"554","height":"593"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769d19a36f474feba87996769ee9d6d9","width":"554","height":"613"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304156546","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304482646,"gmtCreate":1605280063685,"gmtModify":1703837249036,"author":{"id":"3561788772736906","authorId":"3561788772736906","name":"长兹特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c1a6f671ba6be394f13b513b31a5fa","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561788772736906","authorIdStr":"3561788772736906"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>冲啊，小老虎🐯","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>冲啊，小老虎🐯","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$冲啊，小老虎🐯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304482646","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305372829,"gmtCreate":1604921455861,"gmtModify":1703835131834,"author":{"id":"3561788772736906","authorId":"3561788772736906","name":"长兹特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c1a6f671ba6be394f13b513b31a5fa","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561788772736906","authorIdStr":"3561788772736906"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>我已经把ACB换成老虎了，老虎财报快出了，我本来今天想压一把奥罗拉，但是奥罗拉这个公司烂的很，接近破产状态，而且盘前一瞬间直接拉到四十个点，想入手的时候只能在高价和买彩票没啥区别，随时大机构获利套出&nbsp;老虎财报快出了，这时候入场到财报前最低涨到7","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>我已经把ACB换成老虎了，老虎财报快出了，我本来今天想压一把奥罗拉，但是奥罗拉这个公司烂的很，接近破产状态，而且盘前一瞬间直接拉到四十个点，想入手的时候只能在高价和买彩票没啥区别，随时大机构获利套出&nbsp;老虎财报快出了，这时候入场到财报前最低涨到7","text":"$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$$蔚来(NIO)$$老虎证券(TIGR)$我已经把ACB换成老虎了，老虎财报快出了，我本来今天想压一把奥罗拉，但是奥罗拉这个公司烂的很，接近破产状态，而且盘前一瞬间直接拉到四十个点，想入手的时候只能在高价和买彩票没啥区别，随时大机构获利套出 老虎财报快出了，这时候入场到财报前最低涨到7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305372829","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519036131541879","authorId":"3519036131541879","name":"lucky第一","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3519036131541879","authorIdStr":"3519036131541879"},"content":"蔚来一直在高位，然而每次刷新高位","text":"蔚来一直在高位，然而每次刷新高位","html":"蔚来一直在高位，然而每次刷新高位"},{"author":{"id":"3562888351616854","authorId":"3562888351616854","name":"Daisy独角兽","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca41842cf1b356161bca2ce01fa5565b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562888351616854","authorIdStr":"3562888351616854"},"content":"请问老虎🐯几号出财报？","text":"请问老虎🐯几号出财报？","html":"请问老虎🐯几号出财报？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302789944,"gmtCreate":1604726947188,"gmtModify":1703834657921,"author":{"id":"3561788772736906","authorId":"3561788772736906","name":"长兹特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c1a6f671ba6be394f13b513b31a5fa","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561788772736906","authorIdStr":"3561788772736906"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>跌30个点割肉离场[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>跌30个点割肉离场[难过]&nbsp;","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$跌30个点割肉离场[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397580894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557524781946327","authorId":"3557524781946327","name":"再饥饿也得忍着稳住","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab10e3ab6f588acfbd6e59d7018330d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557524781946327","idStr":"3557524781946327"},"content":"那意思就是，蒸发还要跌。2.81都已经很低了。再跌怕要到2.11。如果要封城到4/5月份 。amc估计很难挺过去，增发肯定还要跌。估计真要跌倒1块钱。但是只要能挺过去。那就不得了了。股价可以3天飚到8/9块。","text":"那意思就是，蒸发还要跌。2.81都已经很低了。再跌怕要到2.11。如果要封城到4/5月份 。amc估计很难挺过去，增发肯定还要跌。估计真要跌倒1块钱。但是只要能挺过去。那就不得了了。股价可以3天飚到8/9块。","html":"那意思就是，蒸发还要跌。2.81都已经很低了。再跌怕要到2.11。如果要封城到4/5月份 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