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2021-12-16

Appl Where will it rise to? Will it hit $200?

2021-12-16

Great for the long term investors.

Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan<blockquote>Visa宣布120亿美元股票回购计划后盘前交易上涨逾1%</blockquote>

2021-08-03

Great results

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-19

Great..

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2021-07-15

Good

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2021-07-09

Nice😊

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2021-07-05

China companies so much uncertainty.

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2021-07-02

Great

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2021-07-01

Very informative

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2021-07-01

Very informative

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2021-06-30

Zoom is nice to use.

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2021-06-30

Tech monopoly fight again.

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2021-06-18

Waiting for it to breakout.

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-05-18

Chong Tencent...

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-16

Apple cheong time.....

Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>

2021-04-07

Great...

Tencent ADR tumbled 9% in morning trading<blockquote>腾讯控股ADR早盘下跌9%</blockquote>

2021-03-25

Correction.. Good for long termbuyers.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-24

Good, opportunity to buy.

TSMC shares slide, as Taiwan plays down Intel's $20 billion expansion challenge<blockquote>台积电股价下跌，台湾淡化英特尔200亿美元的扩张挑战</blockquote>

2021-03-17

Good!

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will it rise to?&nbsp;Will it hit $200?","listText":"Appl&nbsp;Where will it rise to?&nbsp;Will it hit $200?","text":"Appl Where will it rise to? Will it hit $200?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690846226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690848634,"gmtCreate":1639658349040,"gmtModify":1639658349095,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great for the long term investors.&nbsp;","listText":"Great for the long term investors.&nbsp;","text":"Great for the long term investors.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690848634","repostId":"1121846161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121846161","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639646008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121846161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 17:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan<blockquote>Visa宣布120亿美元股票回购计划后盘前交易上涨逾1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121846161","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan.It disclos","content":"<p>Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a&nbsp;$12 billion shares buyback plan.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b22c0cdacdc85cff29eebaf6e84e297\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It&nbsp;disclosed a new $12 billion share buyback mandate, bringing the total number of future share buybacks to about $13.2 billion. It is reported that in the previous stock repurchase authorization, as of September 30, 2021, the authorized funds were 4.7 billion US dollars, and as of December 15, 2021, about 3.5 billion US dollars had been used.</p><p><blockquote>Visa在宣布120亿美元的股票回购计划后，盘前交易中上涨超过1%。它披露了一项新的120亿美元股票回购授权，使未来股票回购总数达到约132亿美元。据悉，在此前的股票回购授权中，截至2021年9月30日，授权资金为47亿美元，截至2021年12月15日，已使用约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan<blockquote>Visa宣布120亿美元股票回购计划后盘前交易上涨逾1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan<blockquote>Visa宣布120亿美元股票回购计划后盘前交易上涨逾1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 17:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a&nbsp;$12 billion shares buyback plan.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b22c0cdacdc85cff29eebaf6e84e297\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It&nbsp;disclosed a new $12 billion share buyback mandate, bringing the total number of future share buybacks to about $13.2 billion. It is reported that in the previous stock repurchase authorization, as of September 30, 2021, the authorized funds were 4.7 billion US dollars, and as of December 15, 2021, about 3.5 billion US dollars had been used.</p><p><blockquote>Visa在宣布120亿美元的股票回购计划后，盘前交易中上涨超过1%。它披露了一项新的120亿美元股票回购授权，使未来股票回购总数达到约132亿美元。据悉，在此前的股票回购授权中，截至2021年9月30日，授权资金为47亿美元，截至2021年12月15日，已使用约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121846161","content_text":"Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan.It disclosed a new $12 billion share buyback mandate, bringing the total number of future share buybacks to about $13.2 billion. 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companies so much uncertainty.&nbsp;","listText":"China companies so much uncertainty.&nbsp;","text":"China companies so much 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informative&nbsp;","listText":"Very informative&nbsp;","text":"Very informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158948466","repostId":"1110727851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158941087,"gmtCreate":1625126258649,"gmtModify":1633944520091,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very informative&nbsp;","listText":"Very informative&nbsp;","text":"Very informative","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158941087","repostId":"1110727851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153824982,"gmtCreate":1625018222546,"gmtModify":1631883958240,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zoom is nice to use.&nbsp;","listText":"Zoom is nice to use.&nbsp;","text":"Zoom is nice to use.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153824982","repostId":"1199181554","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153828516,"gmtCreate":1625018082835,"gmtModify":1633945793877,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tech monopoly fight again.&nbsp;","listText":"Tech monopoly fight again.&nbsp;","text":"Tech monopoly fight again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153828516","repostId":"2147395895","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166148223,"gmtCreate":1623998857062,"gmtModify":1634024341024,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for it to breakout.&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for it to breakout.&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for it to breakout.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166148223","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195209283,"gmtCreate":1621295347242,"gmtModify":1634192756003,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Chong Tencent...&nbsp;","listText":"Chong Tencent...&nbsp;","text":"Chong Tencent...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195209283","repostId":"2136954804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370358094,"gmtCreate":1618555717318,"gmtModify":1634292104777,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple cheong time.....&nbsp;","listText":"Apple cheong time.....&nbsp;","text":"Apple cheong time.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370358094","repostId":"1142633815","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>First piece of the puzzle: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一块拼图：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.</p><p><blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote></p><p> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果的市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li>  <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li>  <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li>  <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second piece of the puzzle: earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二块拼图：收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote></p><p> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.</p><p><blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li>  <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li>  <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li>  <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li>  <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 13:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>First piece of the puzzle: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一块拼图：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.</p><p><blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote></p><p> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果的市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li>  <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li>  <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li>  <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second piece of the puzzle: earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二块拼图：收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote></p><p> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.</p><p><blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li>  <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li>  <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li>  <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li>  <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341846268,"gmtCreate":1617804910954,"gmtModify":1634296405297,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great...&nbsp;","listText":"Great...&nbsp;","text":"Great...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341846268","repostId":"1115195821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115195821","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617803804,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115195821?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-07 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tencent ADR tumbled 9% in morning trading<blockquote>腾讯控股ADR早盘下跌9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115195821","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tencent ADR tumbled 9% in morning trading on Tencent top holder Prosus to sell up to $14.6 billion s","content":"<p>Tencent&nbsp;ADR&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;9%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;on&nbsp;Tencent top holder Prosus to sell up to $14.6 billion stake.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股最大股东Prosus出售高达146亿美元的股份，腾讯控股ADR早盘下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e5785836356611f7a2d82148113186\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Prosus NV&nbsp;plans to raise as much as $14.6 billion from the sale of shares in Chinese internet giant&nbsp;Tencent Holdings Ltd., further growing its war chest for new e-commerce deals.</p><p><blockquote>Prosus NV计划通过出售中国互联网巨头腾讯控股控股有限公司的股份筹集至多146亿美元，进一步增加其用于新电子商务交易的资金。</blockquote></p><p>The Amsterdam-listed firm will sell a 2% stake in Tencent, reducing its holding to just under 29% while remaining the biggest shareholder, according to a&nbsp;statement&nbsp;on Wednesday. The price range was set at HK$575.00 to HK$595.00, a discount to the last trading price of HK$629.50.</p><p><blockquote>根据周三的一份声明，这家在阿姆斯特丹上市的公司将出售腾讯控股2%的股份，将其持股比例降至略低于29%，同时仍是最大股东。价格区间定为575.00港元至595.00港元，较上次成交价629.50港元有折让。</blockquote></p><p>The deal will more than quadruple Prosus’s cash reserves from $4.6 billion as of the end of September.</p><p><blockquote>该交易将使Prosus的现金储备从截至9月底的46亿美元增加四倍多。</blockquote></p><p>Prosus is cashing on one of the all-time great venture-capital deals.Naspers Ltd., the company’s Cape-Town-based parent, invested just $32 million in Tencent in 2001, when it was an obscure internet firm. The shares are now worth about $239 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Prosus正在兑现有史以来最伟大的风险投资交易之一。该公司位于开普敦的母公司Naspers Ltd.2001年仅向腾讯控股投资了3200万美元，当时该公司还是一家默默无闻的互联网公司。这些股票目前价值约2390亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>While the decision has made Naspers the most valuable company in Africa, its market capitalization of about $109 billion lags well behind the value of the Tencent holding. The creation of Prosus was partly designed to narrow that discount, but the Amsterdam-based company too is dwarfed by the size of the stake in the WeChat creator.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一决定使Naspers成为非洲最有价值的公司，但其约1090亿美元的市值远远落后于腾讯控股控股公司的价值。Prosus的创建在一定程度上是为了缩小折扣，但这家总部位于阿姆斯特丹的公司与微信创建者的股份规模相比也相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p>Prosus has committed not to sell any further Tencent shares for at least the next three years, the company said. Naspers sold a similar size stake in 2018, a year before spinning off the shareholding and most of its other businesses into what is now Prosus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，Prosus已承诺至少在未来三年内不再出售任何腾讯控股股票。Naspers在2018年出售了类似规模的股份，一年前将股权和大部分其他业务分拆为现在的Prosus。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent ADR tumbled 9% in morning trading<blockquote>腾讯控股ADR早盘下跌9%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent ADR tumbled 9% in morning trading<blockquote>腾讯控股ADR早盘下跌9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-07 21:56</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tencent&nbsp;ADR&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;9%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;on&nbsp;Tencent top holder Prosus to sell up to $14.6 billion stake.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股最大股东Prosus出售高达146亿美元的股份，腾讯控股ADR早盘下跌9%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e5785836356611f7a2d82148113186\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Prosus NV&nbsp;plans to raise as much as $14.6 billion from the sale of shares in Chinese internet giant&nbsp;Tencent Holdings Ltd., further growing its war chest for new e-commerce deals.</p><p><blockquote>Prosus NV计划通过出售中国互联网巨头腾讯控股控股有限公司的股份筹集至多146亿美元，进一步增加其用于新电子商务交易的资金。</blockquote></p><p>The Amsterdam-listed firm will sell a 2% stake in Tencent, reducing its holding to just under 29% while remaining the biggest shareholder, according to a&nbsp;statement&nbsp;on Wednesday. The price range was set at HK$575.00 to HK$595.00, a discount to the last trading price of HK$629.50.</p><p><blockquote>根据周三的一份声明，这家在阿姆斯特丹上市的公司将出售腾讯控股2%的股份，将其持股比例降至略低于29%，同时仍是最大股东。价格区间定为575.00港元至595.00港元，较上次成交价629.50港元有折让。</blockquote></p><p>The deal will more than quadruple Prosus’s cash reserves from $4.6 billion as of the end of September.</p><p><blockquote>该交易将使Prosus的现金储备从截至9月底的46亿美元增加四倍多。</blockquote></p><p>Prosus is cashing on one of the all-time great venture-capital deals.Naspers Ltd., the company’s Cape-Town-based parent, invested just $32 million in Tencent in 2001, when it was an obscure internet firm. The shares are now worth about $239 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Prosus正在兑现有史以来最伟大的风险投资交易之一。该公司位于开普敦的母公司Naspers Ltd.2001年仅向腾讯控股投资了3200万美元，当时该公司还是一家默默无闻的互联网公司。这些股票目前价值约2390亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>While the decision has made Naspers the most valuable company in Africa, its market capitalization of about $109 billion lags well behind the value of the Tencent holding. The creation of Prosus was partly designed to narrow that discount, but the Amsterdam-based company too is dwarfed by the size of the stake in the WeChat creator.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这一决定使Naspers成为非洲最有价值的公司，但其约1090亿美元的市值远远落后于腾讯控股控股公司的价值。Prosus的创建在一定程度上是为了缩小折扣，但这家总部位于阿姆斯特丹的公司与微信创建者的股份规模相比也相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p>Prosus has committed not to sell any further Tencent shares for at least the next three years, the company said. Naspers sold a similar size stake in 2018, a year before spinning off the shareholding and most of its other businesses into what is now Prosus.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，Prosus已承诺至少在未来三年内不再出售任何腾讯控股股票。Naspers在2018年出售了类似规模的股份，一年前将股权和大部分其他业务分拆为现在的Prosus。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115195821","content_text":"Tencent ADR tumbled 9% in morning trading on Tencent top holder Prosus to sell up to $14.6 billion stake.Prosus NV plans to raise as much as $14.6 billion from the sale of shares in Chinese internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd., further growing its war chest for new e-commerce deals.The Amsterdam-listed firm will sell a 2% stake in Tencent, reducing its holding to just under 29% while remaining the biggest shareholder, according to a statement on Wednesday. The price range was set at HK$575.00 to HK$595.00, a discount to the last trading price of HK$629.50.The deal will more than quadruple Prosus’s cash reserves from $4.6 billion as of the end of September.Prosus is cashing on one of the all-time great venture-capital deals.Naspers Ltd., the company’s Cape-Town-based parent, invested just $32 million in Tencent in 2001, when it was an obscure internet firm. The shares are now worth about $239 billion.While the decision has made Naspers the most valuable company in Africa, its market capitalization of about $109 billion lags well behind the value of the Tencent holding. The creation of Prosus was partly designed to narrow that discount, but the Amsterdam-based company too is dwarfed by the size of the stake in the WeChat creator.Prosus has committed not to sell any further Tencent shares for at least the next three years, the company said. Naspers sold a similar size stake in 2018, a year before spinning off the shareholding and most of its other businesses into what is now Prosus.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358049512,"gmtCreate":1616644488636,"gmtModify":1634524759947,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correction.. Good for long termbuyers.&nbsp;","listText":"Correction.. Good for long termbuyers.&nbsp;","text":"Correction.. Good for long termbuyers.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358049512","repostId":"1193689570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351171598,"gmtCreate":1616579625514,"gmtModify":1634525106549,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good, opportunity to buy.&nbsp;","listText":"Good, opportunity to buy.&nbsp;","text":"Good, opportunity to buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351171598","repostId":"1101214616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101214616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616575902,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101214616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC shares slide, as Taiwan plays down Intel's $20 billion expansion challenge<blockquote>台积电股价下跌，台湾淡化英特尔200亿美元的扩张挑战</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101214616","media":"reuters","summary":"TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) shares fell nearly 3% on Wednesda","content":"<p>TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) shares fell nearly 3% on Wednesday after Intel Corp announced a $20 billion plan to expand its advanced chip manufacturing capacity, even as Taiwan’s economy minister sought to downplay the impact.</p><p><blockquote>台北（路透社）-台积电股份有限公司（TSMC）股价周三下跌近3%，此前英特尔公司宣布了一项200亿美元的计划来扩大其先进芯片制造能力，尽管台湾经济部长试图淡化这一影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c2607f9c15869e7dfab9310342a994\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"649\">Intel said on Tuesday it will build two factories in Arizona and open its plants to outside customers, directly challenging the two other companies in the world that can make the most advanced chips - TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔周二表示，将在亚利桑那州建设两家工厂，并向外部客户开放工厂，直接挑战全球另外两家能够制造最先进芯片的公司——台积电和韩国三星电子有限公司。</blockquote></p><p> Shares in TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer with clients including Apple Inc and Qualcomm Inc, fell as much as 3.9% on Wednesday morning, compared with a drop of around 1% on the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>台积电是全球最大的代工芯片制造商，其客户包括苹果公司和高通公司，其股价周三上午下跌了3.9%，而大盘的跌幅约为1%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC announced plans in May to build its own $12 billion factory in Arizona, in an apparent win by the then-Trump administration in its push to wrestle global tech supply chains back from China.</p><p><blockquote>台积电今年5月宣布计划在亚利桑那州建造自己的工厂，耗资120亿美元，这显然是当时的特朗普政府在从中国夺回全球科技供应链方面取得的胜利。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said Intel’s plan was “not a challenge” to the island’s formidable semiconductor industry.</p><p><blockquote>台湾经济部长王美华表示，英特尔的计划对台湾强大的半导体行业“不是挑战”。</blockquote></p><p> “First of all I believe that our whole semiconductor ecosystem is very good, and secondly our manufacturers are awesome, and are continually advancing their technology,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“首先，我相信我们的整个半导体生态系统非常好，其次我们的制造商很棒，并且不断进步他们的技术，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Wang said she would be happy to see Taiwan-U.S. cooperation on semiconductors “but of course we still hope they can increase their investment in Taiwan”.</p><p><blockquote>王说，她很高兴看到台美关系。半导体方面的合作，“但我们当然还是希望他们能增加对台投资”。</blockquote></p><p> LONG-TERM IMPACT?</p><p><blockquote>长期影响？</blockquote></p><p> The move by Intel’s new Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger aims to restore Intel’s reputation after manufacturing stumbles sent shares plunging last year.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)此举旨在恢复英特尔在去年制造业失误导致股价暴跌后的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> Sherman Shang, a research analyst at Fubon Securities Investment Services in Taipei, said Intel had tried to do this before without much success and that “fundamentally” the new plan was no different, meaning TSMC should be unaffected, and its advanced technology was difficult to match in any case.</p><p><blockquote>台北富邦证券投资服务公司（Fubon Securities Investment Services）的研究分析师Sherman Shang表示，英特尔以前曾尝试过这样做，但没有取得多大成功，“从根本上”新计划没有什么不同，这意味着台积电应该不会受到影响，而且其先进技术很难在任何情况下都能匹配。</blockquote></p><p> “The Intel CEO is living in a previous era, and it’s quite hard for them to catch up on manufacturing,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“英特尔首席执行官生活在一个以前的时代，他们很难赶上制造业，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> But Mega International Investment Services analyst Alex Huang was more circumspect.</p><p><blockquote>但Mega International Investment Services分析师Alex Huang更为谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “As Intel’s new chip fabs come online, TSMC will be under pressure to evaluate its future operating prospects and this will affect TSMC’s long-term competitiveness,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“随着英特尔新芯片工厂的上线，台积电将面临评估其未来运营前景的压力，这将影响台积电的长期竞争力，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC, like other technology firms, has benefited from the work-and-study-from-home trend globally during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people rushed to buy laptops, tablets and other equipment.</p><p><blockquote>与其他科技公司一样，台积电受益于COVID-19大流行期间全球在家工作和学习的趋势，因为人们争相购买笔记本电脑、平板电脑和其他设备。</blockquote></p><p> In January it posted its best-ever quarterly profit, for the fourth quarter of last year, and hiked revenue and capital spending estimates to record levels as it forecast “multiple years of growth opportunities”.</p><p><blockquote>一月份，该公司公布了去年第四季度有史以来最好的季度利润，并将收入和资本支出预期上调至创纪录水平，因为它预测“多年的增长机会”。</blockquote></p><p> It is hugely profitable thanks to its gold standard foundry technology, with a gross profit margin of more than 50%, and plans record capital spending on the production and development of advanced chips of between $25 billion-$28 billion this year, as much as 60% higher than the amount it spent in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>由于其黄金标准代工技术，该公司利润丰厚，毛利率超过50%，并计划今年在先进芯片的生产和开发上创纪录的资本支出在250亿至280亿美元之间，高达60%比2020年的支出金额高出60%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s shares have gained almost 10% so far this year, giving it a market value of about $542 billion.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，台积电股价已上涨近10%，市值约为5420亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC shares slide, as Taiwan plays down Intel's $20 billion expansion challenge<blockquote>台积电股价下跌，台湾淡化英特尔200亿美元的扩张挑战</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC shares slide, as Taiwan plays down Intel's $20 billion expansion challenge<blockquote>台积电股价下跌，台湾淡化英特尔200亿美元的扩张挑战</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-24 16:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) shares fell nearly 3% on Wednesday after Intel Corp announced a $20 billion plan to expand its advanced chip manufacturing capacity, even as Taiwan’s economy minister sought to downplay the impact.</p><p><blockquote>台北（路透社）-台积电股份有限公司（TSMC）股价周三下跌近3%，此前英特尔公司宣布了一项200亿美元的计划来扩大其先进芯片制造能力，尽管台湾经济部长试图淡化这一影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c2607f9c15869e7dfab9310342a994\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"649\">Intel said on Tuesday it will build two factories in Arizona and open its plants to outside customers, directly challenging the two other companies in the world that can make the most advanced chips - TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔周二表示，将在亚利桑那州建设两家工厂，并向外部客户开放工厂，直接挑战全球另外两家能够制造最先进芯片的公司——台积电和韩国三星电子有限公司。</blockquote></p><p> Shares in TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer with clients including Apple Inc and Qualcomm Inc, fell as much as 3.9% on Wednesday morning, compared with a drop of around 1% on the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>台积电是全球最大的代工芯片制造商，其客户包括苹果公司和高通公司，其股价周三上午下跌了3.9%，而大盘的跌幅约为1%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC announced plans in May to build its own $12 billion factory in Arizona, in an apparent win by the then-Trump administration in its push to wrestle global tech supply chains back from China.</p><p><blockquote>台积电今年5月宣布计划在亚利桑那州建造自己的工厂，耗资120亿美元，这显然是当时的特朗普政府在从中国夺回全球科技供应链方面取得的胜利。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said Intel’s plan was “not a challenge” to the island’s formidable semiconductor industry.</p><p><blockquote>台湾经济部长王美华表示，英特尔的计划对台湾强大的半导体行业“不是挑战”。</blockquote></p><p> “First of all I believe that our whole semiconductor ecosystem is very good, and secondly our manufacturers are awesome, and are continually advancing their technology,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“首先，我相信我们的整个半导体生态系统非常好，其次我们的制造商很棒，并且不断进步他们的技术，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Wang said she would be happy to see Taiwan-U.S. cooperation on semiconductors “but of course we still hope they can increase their investment in Taiwan”.</p><p><blockquote>王说，她很高兴看到台美关系。半导体方面的合作，“但我们当然还是希望他们能增加对台投资”。</blockquote></p><p> LONG-TERM IMPACT?</p><p><blockquote>长期影响？</blockquote></p><p> The move by Intel’s new Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger aims to restore Intel’s reputation after manufacturing stumbles sent shares plunging last year.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)此举旨在恢复英特尔在去年制造业失误导致股价暴跌后的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> Sherman Shang, a research analyst at Fubon Securities Investment Services in Taipei, said Intel had tried to do this before without much success and that “fundamentally” the new plan was no different, meaning TSMC should be unaffected, and its advanced technology was difficult to match in any case.</p><p><blockquote>台北富邦证券投资服务公司（Fubon Securities Investment Services）的研究分析师Sherman Shang表示，英特尔以前曾尝试过这样做，但没有取得多大成功，“从根本上”新计划没有什么不同，这意味着台积电应该不会受到影响，而且其先进技术很难在任何情况下都能匹配。</blockquote></p><p> “The Intel CEO is living in a previous era, and it’s quite hard for them to catch up on manufacturing,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“英特尔首席执行官生活在一个以前的时代，他们很难赶上制造业，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> But Mega International Investment Services analyst Alex Huang was more circumspect.</p><p><blockquote>但Mega International Investment Services分析师Alex Huang更为谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “As Intel’s new chip fabs come online, TSMC will be under pressure to evaluate its future operating prospects and this will affect TSMC’s long-term competitiveness,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“随着英特尔新芯片工厂的上线，台积电将面临评估其未来运营前景的压力，这将影响台积电的长期竞争力，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC, like other technology firms, has benefited from the work-and-study-from-home trend globally during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people rushed to buy laptops, tablets and other equipment.</p><p><blockquote>与其他科技公司一样，台积电受益于COVID-19大流行期间全球在家工作和学习的趋势，因为人们争相购买笔记本电脑、平板电脑和其他设备。</blockquote></p><p> In January it posted its best-ever quarterly profit, for the fourth quarter of last year, and hiked revenue and capital spending estimates to record levels as it forecast “multiple years of growth opportunities”.</p><p><blockquote>一月份，该公司公布了去年第四季度有史以来最好的季度利润，并将收入和资本支出预期上调至创纪录水平，因为它预测“多年的增长机会”。</blockquote></p><p> It is hugely profitable thanks to its gold standard foundry technology, with a gross profit margin of more than 50%, and plans record capital spending on the production and development of advanced chips of between $25 billion-$28 billion this year, as much as 60% higher than the amount it spent in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>由于其黄金标准代工技术，该公司利润丰厚，毛利率超过50%，并计划今年在先进芯片的生产和开发上创纪录的资本支出在250亿至280亿美元之间，高达60%比2020年的支出金额高出60%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s shares have gained almost 10% so far this year, giving it a market value of about $542 billion.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，台积电股价已上涨近10%，市值约为5420亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-intel-manufacturing-taiwan/tsmc-shares-slide-as-taiwan-plays-down-intels-20-billion-expansion-challenge-idUSKBN2BG09F?il=0\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-intel-manufacturing-taiwan/tsmc-shares-slide-as-taiwan-plays-down-intels-20-billion-expansion-challenge-idUSKBN2BG09F?il=0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101214616","content_text":"TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) shares fell nearly 3% on Wednesday after Intel Corp announced a $20 billion plan to expand its advanced chip manufacturing capacity, even as Taiwan’s economy minister sought to downplay the impact.\nIntel said on Tuesday it will build two factories in Arizona and open its plants to outside customers, directly challenging the two other companies in the world that can make the most advanced chips - TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.\nShares in TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer with clients including Apple Inc and Qualcomm Inc, fell as much as 3.9% on Wednesday morning, compared with a drop of around 1% on the broader market.\nTSMC announced plans in May to build its own $12 billion factory in Arizona, in an apparent win by the then-Trump administration in its push to wrestle global tech supply chains back from China.\nTaiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said Intel’s plan was “not a challenge” to the island’s formidable semiconductor industry.\n“First of all I believe that our whole semiconductor ecosystem is very good, and secondly our manufacturers are awesome, and are continually advancing their technology,” she said.\nWang said she would be happy to see Taiwan-U.S. cooperation on semiconductors “but of course we still hope they can increase their investment in Taiwan”.\nLONG-TERM IMPACT?\nThe move by Intel’s new Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger aims to restore Intel’s reputation after manufacturing stumbles sent shares plunging last year.\nSherman Shang, a research analyst at Fubon Securities Investment Services in Taipei, said Intel had tried to do this before without much success and that “fundamentally” the new plan was no different, meaning TSMC should be unaffected, and its advanced technology was difficult to match in any case.\n“The Intel CEO is living in a previous era, and it’s quite hard for them to catch up on manufacturing,” he said.\nBut Mega International Investment Services analyst Alex Huang was more circumspect.\n“As Intel’s new chip fabs come online, TSMC will be under pressure to evaluate its future operating prospects and this will affect TSMC’s long-term competitiveness,” he said.\nTSMC, like other technology firms, has benefited from the work-and-study-from-home trend globally during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people rushed to buy laptops, tablets and other equipment.\nIn January it posted its best-ever quarterly profit, for the fourth quarter of last year, and hiked revenue and capital spending estimates to record levels as it forecast “multiple years of growth opportunities”.\nIt is hugely profitable thanks to its gold standard foundry technology, with a gross profit margin of more than 50%, and plans record capital spending on the production and development of advanced chips of between $25 billion-$28 billion this year, as much as 60% higher than the amount it spent in 2020.\nTSMC’s shares have gained almost 10% so far this year, giving it a market value of about $542 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324265370,"gmtCreate":1615995812290,"gmtModify":1703496195363,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555369166820250","authorIdStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good!&nbsp;","listText":"Good!&nbsp;","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324265370","repostId":"1167332168","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":195209283,"gmtCreate":1621295347242,"gmtModify":1634192756003,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Chong Tencent...&nbsp;","listText":"Chong Tencent...&nbsp;","text":"Chong Tencent...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195209283","repostId":"2136954804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":690848634,"gmtCreate":1639658349040,"gmtModify":1639658349095,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great for the long term investors.&nbsp;","listText":"Great for the long term investors.&nbsp;","text":"Great for the long term investors.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690848634","repostId":"1121846161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121846161","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639646008,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121846161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 17:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan<blockquote>Visa宣布120亿美元股票回购计划后盘前交易上涨逾1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121846161","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan.It disclos","content":"<p>Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a&nbsp;$12 billion shares buyback plan.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b22c0cdacdc85cff29eebaf6e84e297\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It&nbsp;disclosed a new $12 billion share buyback mandate, bringing the total number of future share buybacks to about $13.2 billion. It is reported that in the previous stock repurchase authorization, as of September 30, 2021, the authorized funds were 4.7 billion US dollars, and as of December 15, 2021, about 3.5 billion US dollars had been used.</p><p><blockquote>Visa在宣布120亿美元的股票回购计划后，盘前交易中上涨超过1%。它披露了一项新的120亿美元股票回购授权，使未来股票回购总数达到约132亿美元。据悉，在此前的股票回购授权中，截至2021年9月30日，授权资金为47亿美元，截至2021年12月15日，已使用约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan<blockquote>Visa宣布120亿美元股票回购计划后盘前交易上涨逾1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan<blockquote>Visa宣布120亿美元股票回购计划后盘前交易上涨逾1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 17:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a&nbsp;$12 billion shares buyback plan.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b22c0cdacdc85cff29eebaf6e84e297\" tg-width=\"767\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It&nbsp;disclosed a new $12 billion share buyback mandate, bringing the total number of future share buybacks to about $13.2 billion. It is reported that in the previous stock repurchase authorization, as of September 30, 2021, the authorized funds were 4.7 billion US dollars, and as of December 15, 2021, about 3.5 billion US dollars had been used.</p><p><blockquote>Visa在宣布120亿美元的股票回购计划后，盘前交易中上涨超过1%。它披露了一项新的120亿美元股票回购授权，使未来股票回购总数达到约132亿美元。据悉，在此前的股票回购授权中，截至2021年9月30日，授权资金为47亿美元，截至2021年12月15日，已使用约35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121846161","content_text":"Visa rose over 1% in premarket trading after announcing a $12 billion shares buyback plan.It disclosed a new $12 billion share buyback mandate, bringing the total number of future share buybacks to about $13.2 billion. It is reported that in the previous stock repurchase authorization, as of September 30, 2021, the authorized funds were 4.7 billion US dollars, and as of December 15, 2021, about 3.5 billion US dollars had been used.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153824982,"gmtCreate":1625018222546,"gmtModify":1631883958240,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zoom is nice to use.&nbsp;","listText":"Zoom is nice to use.&nbsp;","text":"Zoom is nice to use.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153824982","repostId":"1199181554","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155447349,"gmtCreate":1625450842381,"gmtModify":1631884665659,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"China companies so much uncertainty.&nbsp;","listText":"China companies so much uncertainty.&nbsp;","text":"China companies so much uncertainty.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155447349","repostId":"1169840279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153828516,"gmtCreate":1625018082835,"gmtModify":1633945793877,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tech monopoly fight again.&nbsp;","listText":"Tech monopoly fight again.&nbsp;","text":"Tech monopoly fight again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153828516","repostId":"2147395895","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807051920,"gmtCreate":1627990981560,"gmtModify":1633754605806,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great results","listText":"Great results","text":"Great results","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807051920","repostId":"2156443128","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351171598,"gmtCreate":1616579625514,"gmtModify":1634525106549,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good, opportunity to buy.&nbsp;","listText":"Good, opportunity to buy.&nbsp;","text":"Good, opportunity to buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351171598","repostId":"1101214616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101214616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616575902,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101214616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC shares slide, as Taiwan plays down Intel's $20 billion expansion challenge<blockquote>台积电股价下跌，台湾淡化英特尔200亿美元的扩张挑战</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101214616","media":"reuters","summary":"TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) shares fell nearly 3% on Wednesda","content":"<p>TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) shares fell nearly 3% on Wednesday after Intel Corp announced a $20 billion plan to expand its advanced chip manufacturing capacity, even as Taiwan’s economy minister sought to downplay the impact.</p><p><blockquote>台北（路透社）-台积电股份有限公司（TSMC）股价周三下跌近3%，此前英特尔公司宣布了一项200亿美元的计划来扩大其先进芯片制造能力，尽管台湾经济部长试图淡化这一影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c2607f9c15869e7dfab9310342a994\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"649\">Intel said on Tuesday it will build two factories in Arizona and open its plants to outside customers, directly challenging the two other companies in the world that can make the most advanced chips - TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔周二表示，将在亚利桑那州建设两家工厂，并向外部客户开放工厂，直接挑战全球另外两家能够制造最先进芯片的公司——台积电和韩国三星电子有限公司。</blockquote></p><p> Shares in TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer with clients including Apple Inc and Qualcomm Inc, fell as much as 3.9% on Wednesday morning, compared with a drop of around 1% on the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>台积电是全球最大的代工芯片制造商，其客户包括苹果公司和高通公司，其股价周三上午下跌了3.9%，而大盘的跌幅约为1%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC announced plans in May to build its own $12 billion factory in Arizona, in an apparent win by the then-Trump administration in its push to wrestle global tech supply chains back from China.</p><p><blockquote>台积电今年5月宣布计划在亚利桑那州建造自己的工厂，耗资120亿美元，这显然是当时的特朗普政府在从中国夺回全球科技供应链方面取得的胜利。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said Intel’s plan was “not a challenge” to the island’s formidable semiconductor industry.</p><p><blockquote>台湾经济部长王美华表示，英特尔的计划对台湾强大的半导体行业“不是挑战”。</blockquote></p><p> “First of all I believe that our whole semiconductor ecosystem is very good, and secondly our manufacturers are awesome, and are continually advancing their technology,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“首先，我相信我们的整个半导体生态系统非常好，其次我们的制造商很棒，并且不断进步他们的技术，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Wang said she would be happy to see Taiwan-U.S. cooperation on semiconductors “but of course we still hope they can increase their investment in Taiwan”.</p><p><blockquote>王说，她很高兴看到台美关系。半导体方面的合作，“但我们当然还是希望他们能增加对台投资”。</blockquote></p><p> LONG-TERM IMPACT?</p><p><blockquote>长期影响？</blockquote></p><p> The move by Intel’s new Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger aims to restore Intel’s reputation after manufacturing stumbles sent shares plunging last year.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)此举旨在恢复英特尔在去年制造业失误导致股价暴跌后的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> Sherman Shang, a research analyst at Fubon Securities Investment Services in Taipei, said Intel had tried to do this before without much success and that “fundamentally” the new plan was no different, meaning TSMC should be unaffected, and its advanced technology was difficult to match in any case.</p><p><blockquote>台北富邦证券投资服务公司（Fubon Securities Investment Services）的研究分析师Sherman Shang表示，英特尔以前曾尝试过这样做，但没有取得多大成功，“从根本上”新计划没有什么不同，这意味着台积电应该不会受到影响，而且其先进技术很难在任何情况下都能匹配。</blockquote></p><p> “The Intel CEO is living in a previous era, and it’s quite hard for them to catch up on manufacturing,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“英特尔首席执行官生活在一个以前的时代，他们很难赶上制造业，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> But Mega International Investment Services analyst Alex Huang was more circumspect.</p><p><blockquote>但Mega International Investment Services分析师Alex Huang更为谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “As Intel’s new chip fabs come online, TSMC will be under pressure to evaluate its future operating prospects and this will affect TSMC’s long-term competitiveness,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“随着英特尔新芯片工厂的上线，台积电将面临评估其未来运营前景的压力，这将影响台积电的长期竞争力，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC, like other technology firms, has benefited from the work-and-study-from-home trend globally during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people rushed to buy laptops, tablets and other equipment.</p><p><blockquote>与其他科技公司一样，台积电受益于COVID-19大流行期间全球在家工作和学习的趋势，因为人们争相购买笔记本电脑、平板电脑和其他设备。</blockquote></p><p> In January it posted its best-ever quarterly profit, for the fourth quarter of last year, and hiked revenue and capital spending estimates to record levels as it forecast “multiple years of growth opportunities”.</p><p><blockquote>一月份，该公司公布了去年第四季度有史以来最好的季度利润，并将收入和资本支出预期上调至创纪录水平，因为它预测“多年的增长机会”。</blockquote></p><p> It is hugely profitable thanks to its gold standard foundry technology, with a gross profit margin of more than 50%, and plans record capital spending on the production and development of advanced chips of between $25 billion-$28 billion this year, as much as 60% higher than the amount it spent in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>由于其黄金标准代工技术，该公司利润丰厚，毛利率超过50%，并计划今年在先进芯片的生产和开发上创纪录的资本支出在250亿至280亿美元之间，高达60%比2020年的支出金额高出60%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s shares have gained almost 10% so far this year, giving it a market value of about $542 billion.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，台积电股价已上涨近10%，市值约为5420亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC shares slide, as Taiwan plays down Intel's $20 billion expansion challenge<blockquote>台积电股价下跌，台湾淡化英特尔200亿美元的扩张挑战</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC shares slide, as Taiwan plays down Intel's $20 billion expansion challenge<blockquote>台积电股价下跌，台湾淡化英特尔200亿美元的扩张挑战</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-24 16:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) shares fell nearly 3% on Wednesday after Intel Corp announced a $20 billion plan to expand its advanced chip manufacturing capacity, even as Taiwan’s economy minister sought to downplay the impact.</p><p><blockquote>台北（路透社）-台积电股份有限公司（TSMC）股价周三下跌近3%，此前英特尔公司宣布了一项200亿美元的计划来扩大其先进芯片制造能力，尽管台湾经济部长试图淡化这一影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c2607f9c15869e7dfab9310342a994\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"649\">Intel said on Tuesday it will build two factories in Arizona and open its plants to outside customers, directly challenging the two other companies in the world that can make the most advanced chips - TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔周二表示，将在亚利桑那州建设两家工厂，并向外部客户开放工厂，直接挑战全球另外两家能够制造最先进芯片的公司——台积电和韩国三星电子有限公司。</blockquote></p><p> Shares in TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer with clients including Apple Inc and Qualcomm Inc, fell as much as 3.9% on Wednesday morning, compared with a drop of around 1% on the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>台积电是全球最大的代工芯片制造商，其客户包括苹果公司和高通公司，其股价周三上午下跌了3.9%，而大盘的跌幅约为1%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC announced plans in May to build its own $12 billion factory in Arizona, in an apparent win by the then-Trump administration in its push to wrestle global tech supply chains back from China.</p><p><blockquote>台积电今年5月宣布计划在亚利桑那州建造自己的工厂，耗资120亿美元，这显然是当时的特朗普政府在从中国夺回全球科技供应链方面取得的胜利。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said Intel’s plan was “not a challenge” to the island’s formidable semiconductor industry.</p><p><blockquote>台湾经济部长王美华表示，英特尔的计划对台湾强大的半导体行业“不是挑战”。</blockquote></p><p> “First of all I believe that our whole semiconductor ecosystem is very good, and secondly our manufacturers are awesome, and are continually advancing their technology,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“首先，我相信我们的整个半导体生态系统非常好，其次我们的制造商很棒，并且不断进步他们的技术，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Wang said she would be happy to see Taiwan-U.S. cooperation on semiconductors “but of course we still hope they can increase their investment in Taiwan”.</p><p><blockquote>王说，她很高兴看到台美关系。半导体方面的合作，“但我们当然还是希望他们能增加对台投资”。</blockquote></p><p> LONG-TERM IMPACT?</p><p><blockquote>长期影响？</blockquote></p><p> The move by Intel’s new Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger aims to restore Intel’s reputation after manufacturing stumbles sent shares plunging last year.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔新任首席执行官帕特·基辛格(Pat Gelsinger)此举旨在恢复英特尔在去年制造业失误导致股价暴跌后的声誉。</blockquote></p><p> Sherman Shang, a research analyst at Fubon Securities Investment Services in Taipei, said Intel had tried to do this before without much success and that “fundamentally” the new plan was no different, meaning TSMC should be unaffected, and its advanced technology was difficult to match in any case.</p><p><blockquote>台北富邦证券投资服务公司（Fubon Securities Investment Services）的研究分析师Sherman Shang表示，英特尔以前曾尝试过这样做，但没有取得多大成功，“从根本上”新计划没有什么不同，这意味着台积电应该不会受到影响，而且其先进技术很难在任何情况下都能匹配。</blockquote></p><p> “The Intel CEO is living in a previous era, and it’s quite hard for them to catch up on manufacturing,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“英特尔首席执行官生活在一个以前的时代，他们很难赶上制造业，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> But Mega International Investment Services analyst Alex Huang was more circumspect.</p><p><blockquote>但Mega International Investment Services分析师Alex Huang更为谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> “As Intel’s new chip fabs come online, TSMC will be under pressure to evaluate its future operating prospects and this will affect TSMC’s long-term competitiveness,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“随着英特尔新芯片工厂的上线，台积电将面临评估其未来运营前景的压力，这将影响台积电的长期竞争力，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC, like other technology firms, has benefited from the work-and-study-from-home trend globally during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people rushed to buy laptops, tablets and other equipment.</p><p><blockquote>与其他科技公司一样，台积电受益于COVID-19大流行期间全球在家工作和学习的趋势，因为人们争相购买笔记本电脑、平板电脑和其他设备。</blockquote></p><p> In January it posted its best-ever quarterly profit, for the fourth quarter of last year, and hiked revenue and capital spending estimates to record levels as it forecast “multiple years of growth opportunities”.</p><p><blockquote>一月份，该公司公布了去年第四季度有史以来最好的季度利润，并将收入和资本支出预期上调至创纪录水平，因为它预测“多年的增长机会”。</blockquote></p><p> It is hugely profitable thanks to its gold standard foundry technology, with a gross profit margin of more than 50%, and plans record capital spending on the production and development of advanced chips of between $25 billion-$28 billion this year, as much as 60% higher than the amount it spent in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>由于其黄金标准代工技术，该公司利润丰厚，毛利率超过50%，并计划今年在先进芯片的生产和开发上创纪录的资本支出在250亿至280亿美元之间，高达60%比2020年的支出金额高出60%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s shares have gained almost 10% so far this year, giving it a market value of about $542 billion.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，台积电股价已上涨近10%，市值约为5420亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-intel-manufacturing-taiwan/tsmc-shares-slide-as-taiwan-plays-down-intels-20-billion-expansion-challenge-idUSKBN2BG09F?il=0\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-intel-manufacturing-taiwan/tsmc-shares-slide-as-taiwan-plays-down-intels-20-billion-expansion-challenge-idUSKBN2BG09F?il=0","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101214616","content_text":"TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) shares fell nearly 3% on Wednesday after Intel Corp announced a $20 billion plan to expand its advanced chip manufacturing capacity, even as Taiwan’s economy minister sought to downplay the impact.\nIntel said on Tuesday it will build two factories in Arizona and open its plants to outside customers, directly challenging the two other companies in the world that can make the most advanced chips - TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.\nShares in TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer with clients including Apple Inc and Qualcomm Inc, fell as much as 3.9% on Wednesday morning, compared with a drop of around 1% on the broader market.\nTSMC announced plans in May to build its own $12 billion factory in Arizona, in an apparent win by the then-Trump administration in its push to wrestle global tech supply chains back from China.\nTaiwan Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua said Intel’s plan was “not a challenge” to the island’s formidable semiconductor industry.\n“First of all I believe that our whole semiconductor ecosystem is very good, and secondly our manufacturers are awesome, and are continually advancing their technology,” she said.\nWang said she would be happy to see Taiwan-U.S. cooperation on semiconductors “but of course we still hope they can increase their investment in Taiwan”.\nLONG-TERM IMPACT?\nThe move by Intel’s new Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger aims to restore Intel’s reputation after manufacturing stumbles sent shares plunging last year.\nSherman Shang, a research analyst at Fubon Securities Investment Services in Taipei, said Intel had tried to do this before without much success and that “fundamentally” the new plan was no different, meaning TSMC should be unaffected, and its advanced technology was difficult to match in any case.\n“The Intel CEO is living in a previous era, and it’s quite hard for them to catch up on manufacturing,” he said.\nBut Mega International Investment Services analyst Alex Huang was more circumspect.\n“As Intel’s new chip fabs come online, TSMC will be under pressure to evaluate its future operating prospects and this will affect TSMC’s long-term competitiveness,” he said.\nTSMC, like other technology firms, has benefited from the work-and-study-from-home trend globally during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people rushed to buy laptops, tablets and other equipment.\nIn January it posted its best-ever quarterly profit, for the fourth quarter of last year, and hiked revenue and capital spending estimates to record levels as it forecast “multiple years of growth opportunities”.\nIt is hugely profitable thanks to its gold standard foundry technology, with a gross profit margin of more than 50%, and plans record capital spending on the production and development of advanced chips of between $25 billion-$28 billion this year, as much as 60% higher than the amount it spent in 2020.\nTSMC’s shares have gained almost 10% so far this year, giving it a market value of about $542 billion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175769269,"gmtCreate":1627049466551,"gmtModify":1633768436074,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175769269","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173788236,"gmtCreate":1626687056125,"gmtModify":1633924935062,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great..&nbsp;","listText":"Great..&nbsp;","text":"Great..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173788236","repostId":"2152492639","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166148223,"gmtCreate":1623998857062,"gmtModify":1634024341024,"author":{"id":"3555369166820250","authorId":"3555369166820250","name":"TiggyTrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3a767c22416849fe76f2e38a327e6c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555369166820250","idStr":"3555369166820250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for it to breakout.&nbsp;","listText":"Waiting for it to breakout.&nbsp;","text":"Waiting for it to breakout.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166148223","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，当时BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}