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03-27 23:44

完蛋了

伊朗媒体：以美袭击伊朗核设施

03-23

$皇家黄金(RGLD)$ 太狠了，从300到200，直接跌33%

03-05

$微软(MSFT)$ 微软是最有希望 Ai 变现的

03-04

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 完全没下限啊，奔120去了

01-26

$携程网(TCOM)$ 这货居然涨回来了？和这两天局势有关系？

01-14

$携程网(TCOM)$ 电诈合伙人

01-13

都来蹭AI提升市值

卡特彼勒创新高，此前宣布与英伟达扩大合作，通过AI推动创新发展

01-12

$MoonLake Immunotherapeutics(MLTX)$ 两天翻倍[开心] [开心]

01-09

阿里又要挨打了

美团：坚决拥护国家开展外卖市场竞争调查评估

2025-12-09

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 滑滑梯呢？

2025-11-28

$Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$ 随着电动车/机器人行业爆发，电池需求井喷

2025-11-19

大摩说增持，那就该减持了

明天凌晨，决定全球市场命运的财报来了！

2025-11-18

赶紧买三倍做空

谷歌CEO警告：AI泡沫破裂时，无一家公司能够幸免

2025-11-18

$Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$ 这个像是洗钱股

2025-11-14

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 逼空行情

2025-11-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 风大浪大，回家躲躲

2025-11-12

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 开盘就暴跌😂😂

2025-11-04

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 一支穿云箭

2025-11-04

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ AI泡沫破裂了

2025-11-04

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 股灾来了，快跑！！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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23:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月27日，据伊朗媒体报道，以色列和美国袭击了伊朗的洪达卜核设施，该设施内有一座重水反应堆。（新华社）</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/492921a71a46ed6d9ca9d4d0824455f2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164135258","content_text":"3月27日，据伊朗媒体报道，以色列和美国袭击了伊朗的洪达卜核设施，该设施内有一座重水反应堆。（新华社）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MGCmain":2,"1OZmain":2,"GCmain":2,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"MGC2602":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545807574636504,"gmtCreate":1774263232768,"gmtModify":1774263234744,"author":{"id":"3509624102527832","authorId":"3509624102527832","name":"6f253c13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3509624102527832","idStr":"3509624102527832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 微软是最有希望 Ai 变现的","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 微软是最有希望 Ai 变现的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539468633867128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":538955312505104,"gmtCreate":1772601858053,"gmtModify":1772601860708,"author":{"id":"3509624102527832","authorId":"3509624102527832","name":"6f253c13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3509624102527832","idStr":"3509624102527832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a> 完全没下限啊，奔120去了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a> 完全没下限啊，奔120去了","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 完全没下限啊，奔120去了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/538955312505104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":525990156391600,"gmtCreate":1769440452119,"gmtModify":1769440454622,"author":{"id":"3509624102527832","authorId":"3509624102527832","name":"6f253c13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3509624102527832","idStr":"3509624102527832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 这货居然涨回来了？和这两天局势有关系？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 这货居然涨回来了？和这两天局势有关系？","text":"$携程网(TCOM)$ 这货居然涨回来了？和这两天局势有关系？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525990156391600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521678949601640,"gmtCreate":1768399075648,"gmtModify":1768399078805,"author":{"id":"3509624102527832","authorId":"3509624102527832","name":"6f253c13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3509624102527832","idStr":"3509624102527832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 电诈合伙人","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 电诈合伙人","text":"$携程网(TCOM)$ 电诈合伙人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521678949601640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521326505631960,"gmtCreate":1768316977554,"gmtModify":1768316979776,"author":{"id":"3509624102527832","authorId":"3509624102527832","name":"6f253c13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3509624102527832","idStr":"3509624102527832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"都来蹭AI提升市值","listText":"都来蹭AI提升市值","text":"都来蹭AI提升市值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521326505631960","repostId":"1147962694","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147962694","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1768315450,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147962694?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-13 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滑滑梯呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/508966453838168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505141712651056,"gmtCreate":1764344871757,"gmtModify":1764344873821,"author":{"id":"3509624102527832","authorId":"3509624102527832","name":"6f253c13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3509624102527832","idStr":"3509624102527832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAC\">$Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 随着电动车/机器人行业爆发，电池需求井喷","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAC\">$Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 随着电动车/机器人行业爆发，电池需求井喷","text":"$Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$ 随着电动车/机器人行业爆发，电池需求井喷","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505141712651056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3566290818801808","authorId":"3566290818801808","name":"亿千","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8074aa8994a90800980e41658344389","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566290818801808","idStr":"3566290818801808"},"content":"锂矿的逻辑看A股就好. 基本上A股锂矿涨 它就涨","text":"锂矿的逻辑看A股就好. 基本上A股锂矿涨 它就涨","html":"锂矿的逻辑看A股就好. 基本上A股锂矿涨 它就涨"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":501933608382896,"gmtCreate":1763561251853,"gmtModify":1763561254185,"author":{"id":"3509624102527832","authorId":"3509624102527832","name":"6f253c13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3509624102527832","idStr":"3509624102527832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"大摩说增持，那就该减持了","listText":"大摩说增持，那就该减持了","text":"大摩说增持，那就该减持了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501933608382896","repostId":"2584915170","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2584915170","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1763539533,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584915170?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-19 16:05","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"明天凌晨，决定全球市场命运的财报来了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584915170","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"作为标普500最大权重股和AI交易中心，英伟达业绩的重要性前所未有。分析人士指出，如果投资者满意三季度业绩和指引，多头将推动全球市场在年末迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>作为标普500最大权重股和AI交易中心，英伟达业绩的重要性前所未有。分析人士指出，如果投资者满意三季度业绩和指引，多头将推动全球市场在年末迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全球市场正陷入一场危险的集体焦虑，而唯一能打破这种僵局的恐怕只有英伟达。这家市值4.5万亿美元的芯片巨头将于美东时间周三（北京时间周四凌晨）美股盘后公布三季度财报，这份财报将决定全球市场在今年最后几周的走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">眼下，市场的紧张情绪正在蔓延：从比特币到科技股，从黄金到国债，从私募市场到企业债券，几乎所有资产类别都遭遇抛售压力。<strong>在这样的背景下，投资者将目光聚焦在英伟达身上，这既是希望也是无奈。</strong>这家公司的业绩将直接反映科技巨头们数千亿美元AI投资的真实回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前，华尔街分析师普遍看好英伟达即将公布的财报，预计净利润和营收将双双增长超过50%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士指出，<strong>如果投资者满意英伟达的三季度业绩和四季度指引，多头将推动市场迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整</strong>。正如华尔街人士所言，<strong>&#34;这是一份英伟达走向如何，市场就走向如何的报告。&#34;</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，在市场高度集中风险下，英伟达作为标普500指数最大权重股和AI交易的中心，其业绩表现的重要性前所未有。但是有市场人士指出<strong>，集中度风险在市场上行时令人兴奋，但在下行时可能变成噩梦。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3228142257\" style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达：当前市场唯一的救赎者？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一种更为阴郁的情绪正在市场蔓延，而只有英伟达能够打破这种沉闷。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">金融市场中最具投机性的领域目前都面临压力。比特币——可能是衡量投机热情最纯粹的指标——已从高点下跌29%，今年转为负收益。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e0253a0f488a8283f803115c1bed5d\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"435\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">持有并存储比特币的公司股价更是陷入严重困境。其中规模最大的Strategy（前身为MicroStrategy）今年股价下跌超过30%，较夏季高点跌幅超过50%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b16df051845a8433a6e42edc4de5afb\" tg-width=\"689\" tg-height=\"520\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不盈利的美国科技公司股价已经萎靡数周，这表明投资者，甚至是冒险的散户投资者，都开始对炒作失去耐心。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更令人不安的是，动荡不仅限于科技股中较为激进的领域。<strong>Facebook母公司Meta的股价今年已经持平，自8月以来已抹去四分之一的市值，</strong>原因是投资者对其在人工智能上看似永无止境的支出感到不安。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b57566f00dc4924c03c1791b7de12479\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"524\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">私募市场的压力虽然不总是容易察觉，但过去几个月一连串的爆雷事件已经触动了市场神经。Absolute Strategy Research编制的跟踪黑石、KKR等公司的指数今年下跌了13%，与标普500指数形成了鲜明对比。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士指出，显然，基准美国股指的大幅上涨掩盖了诸多问题。在表面之下，投资者正变得难以取悦。明显的风险在于，这可能演变成对自今年春季以来一直充满希望的市场的全面清算。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在这种市场环境下，英伟达财报的重要性愈发凸显。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管近期遭遇抛售，英伟达股价今年仍上涨35%，是纳斯达克100指数约17%涨幅的两倍多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff84606b6e184f4ebf4700c9975e96a8\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"619\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时，股价下跌使该公司的估值相对具有吸引力。英伟达目前的远期市盈率约为29倍，远低于其10年平均水平35倍，略高于纳斯达克100指数约26倍的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;考虑到英伟达的增长速度，30倍市盈率似乎一点也不过分，&#34;资管公司Kingsview Wealth Management首席投资官Scott Martin表示。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于即将公布的业绩报道，华尔街分析师预计英伟达第三财季净利润和营收将双双增长超过50%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">彭博汇编的数据显示，微软、亚马逊、谷歌和Meta这四家公司合计占英伟达销售额的40%以上，预计未来12个月它们的AI支出将增长34%，达到4400亿美元。因此，这家公司的业绩将直接反映数千亿美元AI投资的真实回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士指出，如果投资者满意英伟达的三季度业绩，多头将推动市场迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整。正如Martin所言：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;这是一份&#39;英伟达的表现决定市场走向&#39;的财报。如果英伟达的业绩强劲，预计销售额和活动规模更大，那么一切都会好转。&#34;</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3233382638\" style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街押注财报&#34;再次超预期&#34;</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街投行对英伟达财报普遍持乐观态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据硬AI消息，摩根大通在最新研报中指出，英伟达极有可能再次上演&#34;业绩超预期并上调指引&#34;（Beat-and-Raise）的戏码。该行预计三季度营收将超过市场普遍预期的约550亿美元，并给出高达630亿至640亿美元的业绩指引，显著高于市场预期的615亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3b2c116f6c2378fc5d508a1b911918\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"508\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通称，当前决定英伟达增长速度的并非需求，而是其庞大供应链的产能极限。AI算力需求持续显著超过供应，英伟达最大客户群体包括超大规模云服务商、新兴云计算公司和AI实验室仍面临算力瓶颈。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">供应链产能正在快速扩张。摩根大通<strong>预计三季度的Blackwell/Blackwell Ultra机架出货量实现了约50%的季度环比增长，达到约10,000个机架的规模，这一增长势头有望在四季度延续</strong>。该行预计英伟达在整个2026财年的机架总出货量将达到28,000至30,000个。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，根据英伟达在10月GTC大会上披露的信息，其2026日历年的订单积压量已经超过70,000个机架，超过了明年全年的最大产能。基于此，摩根大通维持对英伟达的&#34;增持&#34;评级，目标价为215美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通还在研报中称，投资者应密切关注管理层如何回应四大核心关切：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>首先</strong>是Blackwell/Blackwell Ultra的产能爬坡轨迹，特别是进入2026年上半年（即英伟达的2027财年上半年）的产能扩张速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>其次</strong>是AI支出的可持续性。摩根大通全球团队近期报告的结论是，到2030年，AI领域的资金来源将保持充裕。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>第三</strong>是电力限制的影响。未来五年全球预计有约120吉瓦的数据中心电力容量上线，但新的天然气轮机交付周期已激增至3-4年，而核电站的建设周期则超过10年，电力已成为现实瓶颈。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>最后</strong>是零部件成本通胀对毛利率的影响。摩根大通认为，上涨的LPDDR内存价格是比HBM内存更大的压力点。尽管如此，该行相信英伟达仍有能力在2026财年末实现其设定的70%区间中段的毛利率目标。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利更为乐观，将英伟达目标价上调至220美元。分析师Joseph Moore在11月14日的报告中表示，行业调研显示需求出现实质性加速，英伟达已完全解决了早期机架相关问题，而需求持续激增。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩行业调研显示，英伟达客户和供应商在第三季度的需求信号都指向加速增长，这与市场普遍预期英伟达各项增长指标已见顶的观点形成鲜明对比。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>在客户层面，</strong>第三季度云服务资本支出预期上调1420亿美元，四大超大规模云服务商各自增加200亿美元以上。相比2025年的美元增长幅度目前达到1150亿美元，比一个季度前高出60%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>从供应商角度看，</strong>ODM厂商广达预计其AI服务器收入将在2026年第一季度加速增长，2026年同比增长超过100%。为支撑这一需求，广达计划明年将AI服务器产能翻倍，因为订单可见性已延伸至2027年。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>大摩将英伟达10月季营收预期从此前的544亿美元上调至550亿美元，明年1月季营收预期从612亿美元上调至631亿美元。</strong>分析师指出，10月季和1月季各实现80亿美元的季度环比增长将创下行业历史最高纪录。</p><h2 id=\"id_3977246170\" style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，市场的深层担忧难以消散</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管华尔街投行普遍看好英伟达财报，但市场对于AI投资的担忧正在加深，而且这些担忧已经反映在投资者行为上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据华尔街见闻此前文章，Peter Thiel的对冲基金在第三季度出售了其持有的全部英伟达股份。软银集团也退出了其持仓，以便为其他AI投资提供资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因做空2008年金融危机期间房地产市场而出名的“大空头”Michael Burry旗下的Scion Asset Management披露买入了英伟达的看跌期权，Burry警告称AI存在泡沫。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时，<strong>彭博对909家对冲基金13F文件的分析发现，在截至9月30日的三个月里，增持和减持英伟达头寸的基金数量几乎持平。</strong>Jonestrading首席市场策略师Michael O&#39;Rourke表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;AI领域的这些参与者一直在不遗余力地不断提高预期门槛，现在他们不仅必须兑现数字，还必须继续满足市场不断上升的预期，这对上市公司来说是一场危险的游戏。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而且，市场当前面临的关键风险在于，如果大型AI支出者，特别是非上市公司OpenAI，不得不收缩其承诺，这些数字可能变得不可靠。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Visible Alpha科技研究主管Melissa Otto指出：&#34;我认为市场目前真正纠结的是所有这些AI基础设施的总潜在市场规模。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Allspring Global Investments投资组合经理Jake Seltz表示，公司持有英伟达大量头寸，他将密切关注下季度指引，虽然营收指引可能高于市场预期，但&#34;<strong>很难知道他们会给出多保守的指引</strong>&#34;。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n明天凌晨，决定全球市场命运的财报来了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-19 16:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759693><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作为标普500最大权重股和AI交易中心，英伟达业绩的重要性前所未有。分析人士指出，如果投资者满意三季度业绩和指引，多头将推动全球市场在年末迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整。全球市场正陷入一场危险的集体焦虑，而唯一能打破这种僵局的恐怕只有英伟达。这家市值4.5万亿美元的芯片巨头将于美东时间周三（北京时间周四凌晨）美股盘后公布三季度财报，这份财报将决定全球市场在今年最后几周的走向。眼下...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759693\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759693","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2584915170","content_text":"作为标普500最大权重股和AI交易中心，英伟达业绩的重要性前所未有。分析人士指出，如果投资者满意三季度业绩和指引，多头将推动全球市场在年末迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整。全球市场正陷入一场危险的集体焦虑，而唯一能打破这种僵局的恐怕只有英伟达。这家市值4.5万亿美元的芯片巨头将于美东时间周三（北京时间周四凌晨）美股盘后公布三季度财报，这份财报将决定全球市场在今年最后几周的走向。眼下，市场的紧张情绪正在蔓延：从比特币到科技股，从黄金到国债，从私募市场到企业债券，几乎所有资产类别都遭遇抛售压力。在这样的背景下，投资者将目光聚焦在英伟达身上，这既是希望也是无奈。这家公司的业绩将直接反映科技巨头们数千亿美元AI投资的真实回报。目前，华尔街分析师普遍看好英伟达即将公布的财报，预计净利润和营收将双双增长超过50%。分析人士指出，如果投资者满意英伟达的三季度业绩和四季度指引，多头将推动市场迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整。正如华尔街人士所言，\"这是一份英伟达走向如何，市场就走向如何的报告。\"值得注意的是，在市场高度集中风险下，英伟达作为标普500指数最大权重股和AI交易的中心，其业绩表现的重要性前所未有。但是有市场人士指出，集中度风险在市场上行时令人兴奋，但在下行时可能变成噩梦。英伟达：当前市场唯一的救赎者？一种更为阴郁的情绪正在市场蔓延，而只有英伟达能够打破这种沉闷。金融市场中最具投机性的领域目前都面临压力。比特币——可能是衡量投机热情最纯粹的指标——已从高点下跌29%，今年转为负收益。持有并存储比特币的公司股价更是陷入严重困境。其中规模最大的Strategy（前身为MicroStrategy）今年股价下跌超过30%，较夏季高点跌幅超过50%。不盈利的美国科技公司股价已经萎靡数周，这表明投资者，甚至是冒险的散户投资者，都开始对炒作失去耐心。更令人不安的是，动荡不仅限于科技股中较为激进的领域。Facebook母公司Meta的股价今年已经持平，自8月以来已抹去四分之一的市值，原因是投资者对其在人工智能上看似永无止境的支出感到不安。私募市场的压力虽然不总是容易察觉，但过去几个月一连串的爆雷事件已经触动了市场神经。Absolute Strategy Research编制的跟踪黑石、KKR等公司的指数今年下跌了13%，与标普500指数形成了鲜明对比。分析人士指出，显然，基准美国股指的大幅上涨掩盖了诸多问题。在表面之下，投资者正变得难以取悦。明显的风险在于，这可能演变成对自今年春季以来一直充满希望的市场的全面清算。在这种市场环境下，英伟达财报的重要性愈发凸显。尽管近期遭遇抛售，英伟达股价今年仍上涨35%，是纳斯达克100指数约17%涨幅的两倍多。同时，股价下跌使该公司的估值相对具有吸引力。英伟达目前的远期市盈率约为29倍，远低于其10年平均水平35倍，略高于纳斯达克100指数约26倍的水平。\"考虑到英伟达的增长速度，30倍市盈率似乎一点也不过分，\"资管公司Kingsview Wealth Management首席投资官Scott Martin表示。对于即将公布的业绩报道，华尔街分析师预计英伟达第三财季净利润和营收将双双增长超过50%。彭博汇编的数据显示，微软、亚马逊、谷歌和Meta这四家公司合计占英伟达销售额的40%以上，预计未来12个月它们的AI支出将增长34%，达到4400亿美元。因此，这家公司的业绩将直接反映数千亿美元AI投资的真实回报。分析人士指出，如果投资者满意英伟达的三季度业绩，多头将推动市场迎来乐观收官；如果不满意，市场可能面临更深的调整。正如Martin所言：\"这是一份'英伟达的表现决定市场走向'的财报。如果英伟达的业绩强劲，预计销售额和活动规模更大，那么一切都会好转。\"华尔街押注财报\"再次超预期\"华尔街投行对英伟达财报普遍持乐观态度。据硬AI消息，摩根大通在最新研报中指出，英伟达极有可能再次上演\"业绩超预期并上调指引\"（Beat-and-Raise）的戏码。该行预计三季度营收将超过市场普遍预期的约550亿美元，并给出高达630亿至640亿美元的业绩指引，显著高于市场预期的615亿美元。摩根大通称，当前决定英伟达增长速度的并非需求，而是其庞大供应链的产能极限。AI算力需求持续显著超过供应，英伟达最大客户群体包括超大规模云服务商、新兴云计算公司和AI实验室仍面临算力瓶颈。供应链产能正在快速扩张。摩根大通预计三季度的Blackwell/Blackwell Ultra机架出货量实现了约50%的季度环比增长，达到约10,000个机架的规模，这一增长势头有望在四季度延续。该行预计英伟达在整个2026财年的机架总出货量将达到28,000至30,000个。更重要的是，根据英伟达在10月GTC大会上披露的信息，其2026日历年的订单积压量已经超过70,000个机架，超过了明年全年的最大产能。基于此，摩根大通维持对英伟达的\"增持\"评级，目标价为215美元。摩根大通还在研报中称，投资者应密切关注管理层如何回应四大核心关切：首先是Blackwell/Blackwell Ultra的产能爬坡轨迹，特别是进入2026年上半年（即英伟达的2027财年上半年）的产能扩张速度。其次是AI支出的可持续性。摩根大通全球团队近期报告的结论是，到2030年，AI领域的资金来源将保持充裕。第三是电力限制的影响。未来五年全球预计有约120吉瓦的数据中心电力容量上线，但新的天然气轮机交付周期已激增至3-4年，而核电站的建设周期则超过10年，电力已成为现实瓶颈。最后是零部件成本通胀对毛利率的影响。摩根大通认为，上涨的LPDDR内存价格是比HBM内存更大的压力点。尽管如此，该行相信英伟达仍有能力在2026财年末实现其设定的70%区间中段的毛利率目标。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利更为乐观，将英伟达目标价上调至220美元。分析师Joseph Moore在11月14日的报告中表示，行业调研显示需求出现实质性加速，英伟达已完全解决了早期机架相关问题，而需求持续激增。大摩行业调研显示，英伟达客户和供应商在第三季度的需求信号都指向加速增长，这与市场普遍预期英伟达各项增长指标已见顶的观点形成鲜明对比。在客户层面，第三季度云服务资本支出预期上调1420亿美元，四大超大规模云服务商各自增加200亿美元以上。相比2025年的美元增长幅度目前达到1150亿美元，比一个季度前高出60%。从供应商角度看，ODM厂商广达预计其AI服务器收入将在2026年第一季度加速增长，2026年同比增长超过100%。为支撑这一需求，广达计划明年将AI服务器产能翻倍，因为订单可见性已延伸至2027年。大摩将英伟达10月季营收预期从此前的544亿美元上调至550亿美元，明年1月季营收预期从612亿美元上调至631亿美元。分析师指出，10月季和1月季各实现80亿美元的季度环比增长将创下行业历史最高纪录。然而，市场的深层担忧难以消散尽管华尔街投行普遍看好英伟达财报，但市场对于AI投资的担忧正在加深，而且这些担忧已经反映在投资者行为上。据华尔街见闻此前文章，Peter Thiel的对冲基金在第三季度出售了其持有的全部英伟达股份。软银集团也退出了其持仓，以便为其他AI投资提供资金。因做空2008年金融危机期间房地产市场而出名的“大空头”Michael Burry旗下的Scion Asset Management披露买入了英伟达的看跌期权，Burry警告称AI存在泡沫。同时，彭博对909家对冲基金13F文件的分析发现，在截至9月30日的三个月里，增持和减持英伟达头寸的基金数量几乎持平。Jonestrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke表示：\"AI领域的这些参与者一直在不遗余力地不断提高预期门槛，现在他们不仅必须兑现数字，还必须继续满足市场不断上升的预期，这对上市公司来说是一场危险的游戏。\"而且，市场当前面临的关键风险在于，如果大型AI支出者，特别是非上市公司OpenAI，不得不收缩其承诺，这些数字可能变得不可靠。Visible Alpha科技研究主管Melissa Otto指出：\"我认为市场目前真正纠结的是所有这些AI基础设施的总潜在市场规模。\"Allspring Global Investments投资组合经理Jake Seltz表示，公司持有英伟达大量头寸，他将密切关注下季度指引，虽然营收指引可能高于市场预期，但\"很难知道他们会给出多保守的指引\"。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDS":2,"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":501624949297448,"gmtCreate":1763475215882,"gmtModify":1763475218204,"author":{"id":"3509624102527832","authorId":"3509624102527832","name":"6f253c13","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3509624102527832","idStr":"3509624102527832"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赶紧买三倍做空","listText":"赶紧买三倍做空","text":"赶紧买三倍做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/501624949297448","repostId":"2584934780","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2584934780","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1763470508,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584934780?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-18 20:55","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"谷歌CEO警告：AI泡沫破裂时，无一家公司能够幸免","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584934780","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"谷歌CEO警告，当下AI热潮含有“非理性”成分，一旦泡沫破裂，没有任何公司能完全幸免。尽管AI被视为最深刻的技术并有望带来长期价值，但当前估值飙升与巨额投入已令人联想到互联网泡沫。谷歌凭借“全栈”技术具备抵御能力，但仍面临能源需求飙升、气候目标推迟及就业冲击等挑战。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>谷歌CEO警告，当下AI热潮含有“非理性”成分，一旦泡沫破裂，没有任何公司能完全幸免。尽管AI被视为最深刻的技术并有望带来长期价值，但当前估值飙升与巨额投入已令人联想到互联网泡沫。谷歌凭借“全栈”技术具备抵御能力，但仍面临能源需求飙升、气候目标推迟及就业冲击等挑战。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谷歌母公司Alphabet的首席执行官Sundar Pichai发出了一个罕见的警告：当前的人工智能热潮中存在“非理性”成分，一旦潜在的泡沫破裂，没有任何公司能够幸免，即便是谷歌也不例外。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在近日接受媒体的专访时，Pichai承认AI投资的增长是一个“非凡的时刻”，但也直言当前的繁荣中存在“非理性”的因素。这一表态正值硅谷内外对AI泡沫的担忧日益加剧之际。近几个月来，AI科技公司的估值一路飙升，企业在该领域的投入也达到了惊人的规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当被问及如果AI泡沫破裂，谷歌是否能免受冲击时，Pichai表示，这家科技巨头有能力抵御潜在的风暴，但也发出了警告：<strong>“我认为没有公司能够幸免，包括我们。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在这次内容广泛的专访中，Pichai还谈及了AI带来的巨大能源需求、公司气候目标的延期，以及这场技术革命对就业的深远影响，勾勒出一幅机遇与严峻挑战并存的复杂图景。</p><h2 id=\"id_230125411\">AI热潮中的“非理性”时刻</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对AI的狂热，已让人联想起上世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫。当时，对新技术的乐观情绪将早期互联网公司的估值推至高点，但泡沫最终在2000年初破裂，导致大量公司倒闭、股价崩盘，并冲击了人们的储蓄和养老基金。分析师们对围绕OpenAI进行的约1.4万亿美元的复杂交易表示怀疑，而该公司今年的预期收入不到计划投资额的千分之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pichai关于“非理性”的评论，呼应了前美联储主席格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）在1996年互联网泡沫破裂前提出的“非理性繁荣”的著名警告。Pichai表示，<strong>在这样的投资周期中，行业可能会出现“过度投资”。</strong>但他同时认为，“我们可以回顾一下互联网。当时显然有很多过度投资，但我们没有人会质疑互联网的意义是深远的。我预计AI也会是同样的情况。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这位谷歌掌门人的看法也得到了华尔街的呼应。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）上月曾表示，对AI的投资终将获得回报，但投入该行业的部分资金“可能会打水漂”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管Pichai警告“没有公司能够幸免”，但他表示，<strong>谷歌拥有独特的“全栈”技术模式，是其抵御风暴的信心来源。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一模式涵盖了从芯片到数据、再到模型和前沿科学的完整技术链条。具体而言，Alphabet正在开发可与英伟达竞争的AI专用超级芯片；同时，其拥有的YouTube等平台提供了海量数据资源。</p><h2 id=\"id_3923484950\">AI是人类迄今“最深刻的技术”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pichai将AI称为人类迄今为止研究的“最深刻的技术”，并预言它将重塑我们所熟知的工作模式。“我们将不得不经历社会的颠覆性变革，”他说，但这也会“创造新的机会”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他认为，AI将“演变和转变某些工作岗位，人们需要适应”。<strong>那些学会适应AI的人“会做得更好”。</strong>他强调：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“无论你想成为老师还是医生，所有这些职业都会继续存在，但在这些职业中表现出色的人，将是那些学会如何使用这些新工具的人。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，Alphabet也在加大对关键市场的战略布局。该公司已承诺在未来两年向英国投资50亿英镑，用于基础设施和研究。Pichai表示，Alphabet将在英国开展“最先进的”研究工作，其关键的AI部门DeepMind总部就设在伦敦。他还首次表示，谷歌将“随着时间的推移”在英国“训练我们的模型”，此举被英国政府视为巩固其作为仅次于美国和中国的全球第三大AI“超级大国”地位的关键一步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AI的飞速发展并非没有代价，其巨大的能源需求正成为一个日益严峻的挑战。Pichai警告称，AI的能源需求是“巨大的”，并指出需要采取行动，包括在英国，以开发新的能源并扩大能源基础设施的规模。“你不会希望因为能源问题而限制经济发展，我认为那会带来后果，”他表示。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌CEO警告：AI泡沫破裂时，无一家公司能够幸免\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-18 20:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759643><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>谷歌CEO警告，当下AI热潮含有“非理性”成分，一旦泡沫破裂，没有任何公司能完全幸免。尽管AI被视为最深刻的技术并有望带来长期价值，但当前估值飙升与巨额投入已令人联想到互联网泡沫。谷歌凭借“全栈”技术具备抵御能力，但仍面临能源需求飙升、气候目标推迟及就业冲击等挑战。谷歌母公司Alphabet的首席执行官Sundar Pichai发出了一个罕见的警告：当前的人工智能热潮中存在“非理性”成分，一旦潜在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759643\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"USJW.SI":"ALPHAB 3xLongSG261006","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU2463028550.USD":"AB SICAV I AMERICAN MULTI-ASSET 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Greenspan）在1996年互联网泡沫破裂前提出的“非理性繁荣”的著名警告。Pichai表示，在这样的投资周期中，行业可能会出现“过度投资”。但他同时认为，“我们可以回顾一下互联网。当时显然有很多过度投资，但我们没有人会质疑互联网的意义是深远的。我预计AI也会是同样的情况。”这位谷歌掌门人的看法也得到了华尔街的呼应。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie 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