雪崩的个人主页 - 老虎社区

雪崩LV5 才子虎

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IP属地：重庆

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24勋章

聆听者

2022-11-10

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 应该会再次挑战年线

2022-10-29

$吉利德科学(GILD)$无话可说

2022-10-29

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$今天3个点？

2022-10-07

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$传统艺能大a.开市前暴跌

2022-10-05

$TWTR 20221216 50.0 CALL$$Twitter(TWTR)$虽然有点事后诸葛，这个call 6月炒作收购就关注了，后面传出不收购了，就想肯定是推后了。

2022-09-13

$NQ100指数主连 2212(NQmain)$中秋？

2022-08-16

$苹果(AAPL)$这苹果最近2月斜45度拉升啊

2022-08-13

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$最近10年 789月没有假期拉升概率极大，只有19年8月川普一个推特，把股市打入恐慌，其他年这些时候都很积极。 20 21都是猛爆空头，只涨不跌。

2022-08-10

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$789 月没有假期生产拉满。通胀转折。

2022-08-05

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$这盘后波动

2022-07-31

买预期卖事实该反弹一下了。

@果子哥家老汉:$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$我实在看不懂了，明明陷入经济衰退了，为什么还能涨？不符合常理。$道琼斯(.DJI)$$标普500(.SPX)$$半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$

2022-07-29

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$这个月涨了12个点。终于反弹了。高于5月收盘价的话，就是一次重要反转了。差不多7 8 9反弹三个月。然后到10月国庆。再说

@雪崩:$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$该反弹下了，再次向120线冲一波。最近3个月不会有假期了。总不能一直下跌吧，超卖继续超卖，全年猛跌。这样不是美股的风格。太单调了

2022-07-05

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$最近3个月都是垃圾时间。而大a却走了一波连续反弹。虽有诱多的嫌疑，但好歹是可观的客观的上去了。美股就是玩命往下砸，超卖接着超卖，连续单调下跌，指标都钝化麻木了，cnn恐惧指数超期低位，然后没有超过3周的反弹，上涨的时候极端超买，下跌的时候亦是如此。

2022-06-24

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$好不容易有次反弹，实际没弹多少

2022-06-22

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$该反弹下了，再次向120线冲一波。最近3个月不会有假期了。总不能一直下跌吧，超卖继续超卖，全年猛跌。这样不是美股的风格。太单调了

2022-06-22

当然要反弹了，最近3个月都没有假期了。下次要接近10月了。

@Owen交易室:我是这么看美股目前的走势的

2022-06-16

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$又是4个点

2022-06-16

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$悲剧的一天

2022-06-14

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$加息只会把股市砸下去，对供需没有任何影响。因为疫情封控，生产率下降了，然后供应减少，无论怎么加息，回流的钱无法改善供需，不会投到实业进行生产，物资依旧短缺，继续通胀。如果装装样子，就硬拖，等封控结束，生产恢复，物资短缺就改善了，局面会更好。无论是否加息，都与此次通胀无关。倒是来军舰过来威胁还能有用些，威胁赶紧开放自由贸易接受通胀更能解决问题

2022-06-13

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$又是4个点

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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该反弹一下了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/682787465","repostId":"682254242","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":682254242,"gmtCreate":1659025715991,"gmtModify":1659067808909,"author":{"id":"38637229394370","authorId":"38637229394370","name":"果子哥家老汉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d5c82e54917164a75cf6baa009bf55","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>我实在看不懂了，明明陷入经济衰退了，为什么还能涨？不符合常理。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMH\">$半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>我实在看不懂了，明明陷入经济衰退了，为什么还能涨？不符合常理。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMH\">$半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$</a>","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$我实在看不懂了，明明陷入经济衰退了，为什么还能涨？不符合常理。$道琼斯(.DJI)$$标普500(.SPX)$$半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs(SMH)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4f8846ad2f2337ee394c7ba93d477b9","width":"720","height":"1307"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/682254242","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":682524370,"gmtCreate":1659079479795,"gmtModify":1659079479795,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$</a>这个月涨了12个点。 终于反弹了。高于5月收盘价的话，就是一次重要反转了。&nbsp; 差不多7&nbsp; 8&nbsp; 9反弹三个月。 然后到10月国庆。&nbsp; 再说","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$</a>这个月涨了12个点。 终于反弹了。高于5月收盘价的话，就是一次重要反转了。&nbsp; 差不多7&nbsp; 8&nbsp; 9反弹三个月。 然后到10月国庆。&nbsp; 再说","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$这个月涨了12个点。 终于反弹了。高于5月收盘价的话，就是一次重要反转了。 差不多7 8 9反弹三个月。 然后到10月国庆。 再说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/682524370","repostId":"683003143","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":683003143,"gmtCreate":1655872488584,"gmtModify":1655872488584,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$</a>该反弹下了，再次向120线冲一波。最近3个月不会有假期了。总不能一直下跌吧，超卖继续超卖，全年猛跌。这样不是美股的风格。太单调了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$</a>该反弹下了，再次向120线冲一波。最近3个月不会有假期了。总不能一直下跌吧，超卖继续超卖，全年猛跌。这样不是美股的风格。太单调了","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$该反弹下了，再次向120线冲一波。最近3个月不会有假期了。总不能一直下跌吧，超卖继续超卖，全年猛跌。这样不是美股的风格。太单调了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/683003143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":681207769,"gmtCreate":1656997087153,"gmtModify":1656997207466,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>最近3个月都是垃圾时间。而大a却走了一波连续反弹。&nbsp; &nbsp; 虽有诱多的嫌疑，但好歹是可观的客观的上去了。&nbsp; 美股就是玩命往下砸，超卖接着超卖，连续单调下跌，指标都钝化麻木了，cnn恐惧指数超期低位，然后没有超过3周的反弹，上涨的时候极端超买，下跌的时候亦是如此。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>最近3个月都是垃圾时间。而大a却走了一波连续反弹。&nbsp; &nbsp; 虽有诱多的嫌疑，但好歹是可观的客观的上去了。&nbsp; 美股就是玩命往下砸，超卖接着超卖，连续单调下跌，指标都钝化麻木了，cnn恐惧指数超期低位，然后没有超过3周的反弹，上涨的时候极端超买，下跌的时候亦是如此。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$最近3个月都是垃圾时间。而大a却走了一波连续反弹。 虽有诱多的嫌疑，但好歹是可观的客观的上去了。 美股就是玩命往下砸，超卖接着超卖，连续单调下跌，指标都钝化麻木了，cnn恐惧指数超期低位，然后没有超过3周的反弹，上涨的时候极端超买，下跌的时候亦是如此。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/681207769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":683155310,"gmtCreate":1656079500032,"gmtModify":1656079500032,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>好不容易&nbsp; 有次反弹，实际没弹多少","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>好不容易&nbsp; 有次反弹，实际没弹多少","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$好不容易 有次反弹，实际没弹多少","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/683155310","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":683003143,"gmtCreate":1655872488584,"gmtModify":1655872488584,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$</a>该反弹下了，再次向120线冲一波。最近3个月不会有假期了。总不能一直下跌吧，超卖继续超卖，全年猛跌。这样不是美股的风格。太单调了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$</a>该反弹下了，再次向120线冲一波。最近3个月不会有假期了。总不能一直下跌吧，超卖继续超卖，全年猛跌。这样不是美股的风格。太单调了","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$该反弹下了，再次向120线冲一波。最近3个月不会有假期了。总不能一直下跌吧，超卖继续超卖，全年猛跌。这样不是美股的风格。太单调了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/683003143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>这个月涨了12个点。 终于反弹了。高于5月收盘价的话，就是一次重要反转了。&nbsp; 差不多7&nbsp; 8&nbsp; 9反弹三个月。 然后到10月国庆。&nbsp; 再说","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$ 这个月涨了12个点。 终于反弹了。高于5月收盘价的话，就是一次重要反转了。 差不多7 8 9反弹三个月。 然后到10月国庆。 再说","html":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$ &nbsp;</a>这个月涨了12个点。 终于反弹了。高于5月收盘价的话，就是一次重要反转了。&nbsp; 差不多7&nbsp; 8&nbsp; 9反弹三个月。 然后到10月国庆。&nbsp; 再说"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":683009884,"gmtCreate":1655872117753,"gmtModify":1655872117753,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然要反弹了，最近3个月都没有假期了。下次要接近10月了。","listText":"当然要反弹了，最近3个月都没有假期了。下次要接近10月了。","text":"当然要反弹了，最近3个月都没有假期了。下次要接近10月了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/683009884","repostId":"689747677","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":689747677,"gmtCreate":1655867552348,"gmtModify":1655962549649,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen交易室","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[{"themeId":"4acff6d67b634baaa687d55bb310a366","categoryId":"b76d3c59fc044df59779c041b25852a6","name":"期货达人俱乐部","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":4acff6d67b634baaa687d55bb310a366}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"期货讨论大本营，无论行情怎么波动，我们这边的盈利总是先人一步。","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb6e4b480d7725b744f497f0d18ad0f5","follow":false,"allowFollow":true,"jumpValue":""}],"title":"我是这么看美股目前的走势的","htmlText":"我们看下美股目前的位置标普和纳指的走势已经透露出近两年来最浓的熊市意味，但往往这个时候，却是一些风顶弄潮儿们最贪婪的时刻。标普：纳指标普和纳指的RIS指标都相当的超卖，两个指数超卖程度已经到了近两年来的最低值，这可能意味着一场超跌反弹即将出现，而从涨跌幅指标ROC来看，已经有不少抄底盘尝试低位买入了如果市场在未来几周尝试一个像样的反弹的话，这两个指标必须配合出现上涨：obv和Accum/Dist，如果这两个指标同时反弹，并配合指数走出几个阳线，就说明做多的人气已经回归，成交量也开始回升。但放眼美股长期走势看，仍旧不乐观，我们身处在一场罕见的熊市之中，任何的做多都是为了博取一次超跌反弹而已，区别在于幅度的大小而已。我们拉长视角，从月线上看，美股已经跨入熊市的事实已经是再明显不过了从1925年有数据记录以来，共有10个短暂的周期性熊市，3个长期震荡盘整的熊市，短期熊市的平均下跌幅度是27.4%，而3个长期熊市中，平均下跌深度有52.7%。如果从目前的位置，标普如果再持续向下探底，RSI持续跌破长期以来的支撑位的话，下方10%到30%的下跌空间就会被开启，但如果指数可以在目前这个点位附近止住跌幅的话，意味着目前是长期大熊市中的周期性小熊市，，未来反弹的空间也会很大。但很不幸的是，无论如何，从目前开始到2030年，美股很可能在一个大范围的空间里，做着“之”字形震荡动作，难以再现奥巴马和特朗普时代的市场辉煌。此外，全球股市的卖空量随着美股的暴跌也来到了自2009年以来的最大值，而在类似卖空的大量放出之后，很可能就是一波空头回补出现，更何况，上周五的四巫日，大量的期权单被平，本周的空头回补力量可能会更大，市场很可能会因此被挤压向上。如果我们把类似目前这样，在短时间内下跌20%的标普走势排列在一起的话，会发现，目前的跌势是历史数据中最迅速的一次了上图的统计图来自于高盛，橘黄色的走势是目前标普的走势，明蓝色的线是当下跌20%后，市场没有出现衰退时的走势，暗蓝色的是伴随着衰退出现的走势，灰色地带是1950年以来，所有类似走势的区间。我们可以看到，无论衰退发生与否，现在的美股也不是很值得恐慌的时候了。一个黄金大底正在构筑。那么能让美股近期反转的利好是什么呢？除了关税的松绑，很可能就是加息的放缓了。所以，原油的见顶与否，非常的重要。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a> &nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a>","listText":"我们看下美股目前的位置标普和纳指的走势已经透露出近两年来最浓的熊市意味，但往往这个时候，却是一些风顶弄潮儿们最贪婪的时刻。标普：纳指标普和纳指的RIS指标都相当的超卖，两个指数超卖程度已经到了近两年来的最低值，这可能意味着一场超跌反弹即将出现，而从涨跌幅指标ROC来看，已经有不少抄底盘尝试低位买入了如果市场在未来几周尝试一个像样的反弹的话，这两个指标必须配合出现上涨：obv和Accum/Dist，如果这两个指标同时反弹，并配合指数走出几个阳线，就说明做多的人气已经回归，成交量也开始回升。但放眼美股长期走势看，仍旧不乐观，我们身处在一场罕见的熊市之中，任何的做多都是为了博取一次超跌反弹而已，区别在于幅度的大小而已。我们拉长视角，从月线上看，美股已经跨入熊市的事实已经是再明显不过了从1925年有数据记录以来，共有10个短暂的周期性熊市，3个长期震荡盘整的熊市，短期熊市的平均下跌幅度是27.4%，而3个长期熊市中，平均下跌深度有52.7%。如果从目前的位置，标普如果再持续向下探底，RSI持续跌破长期以来的支撑位的话，下方10%到30%的下跌空间就会被开启，但如果指数可以在目前这个点位附近止住跌幅的话，意味着目前是长期大熊市中的周期性小熊市，，未来反弹的空间也会很大。但很不幸的是，无论如何，从目前开始到2030年，美股很可能在一个大范围的空间里，做着“之”字形震荡动作，难以再现奥巴马和特朗普时代的市场辉煌。此外，全球股市的卖空量随着美股的暴跌也来到了自2009年以来的最大值，而在类似卖空的大量放出之后，很可能就是一波空头回补出现，更何况，上周五的四巫日，大量的期权单被平，本周的空头回补力量可能会更大，市场很可能会因此被挤压向上。如果我们把类似目前这样，在短时间内下跌20%的标普走势排列在一起的话，会发现，目前的跌势是历史数据中最迅速的一次了上图的统计图来自于高盛，橘黄色的走势是目前标普的走势，明蓝色的线是当下跌20%后，市场没有出现衰退时的走势，暗蓝色的是伴随着衰退出现的走势，灰色地带是1950年以来，所有类似走势的区间。我们可以看到，无论衰退发生与否，现在的美股也不是很值得恐慌的时候了。一个黄金大底正在构筑。那么能让美股近期反转的利好是什么呢？除了关税的松绑，很可能就是加息的放缓了。所以，原油的见顶与否，非常的重要。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a> &nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a>","text":"我们看下美股目前的位置标普和纳指的走势已经透露出近两年来最浓的熊市意味，但往往这个时候，却是一些风顶弄潮儿们最贪婪的时刻。标普：纳指标普和纳指的RIS指标都相当的超卖，两个指数超卖程度已经到了近两年来的最低值，这可能意味着一场超跌反弹即将出现，而从涨跌幅指标ROC来看，已经有不少抄底盘尝试低位买入了如果市场在未来几周尝试一个像样的反弹的话，这两个指标必须配合出现上涨：obv和Accum/Dist，如果这两个指标同时反弹，并配合指数走出几个阳线，就说明做多的人气已经回归，成交量也开始回升。但放眼美股长期走势看，仍旧不乐观，我们身处在一场罕见的熊市之中，任何的做多都是为了博取一次超跌反弹而已，区别在于幅度的大小而已。我们拉长视角，从月线上看，美股已经跨入熊市的事实已经是再明显不过了从1925年有数据记录以来，共有10个短暂的周期性熊市，3个长期震荡盘整的熊市，短期熊市的平均下跌幅度是27.4%，而3个长期熊市中，平均下跌深度有52.7%。如果从目前的位置，标普如果再持续向下探底，RSI持续跌破长期以来的支撑位的话，下方10%到30%的下跌空间就会被开启，但如果指数可以在目前这个点位附近止住跌幅的话，意味着目前是长期大熊市中的周期性小熊市，，未来反弹的空间也会很大。但很不幸的是，无论如何，从目前开始到2030年，美股很可能在一个大范围的空间里，做着“之”字形震荡动作，难以再现奥巴马和特朗普时代的市场辉煌。此外，全球股市的卖空量随着美股的暴跌也来到了自2009年以来的最大值，而在类似卖空的大量放出之后，很可能就是一波空头回补出现，更何况，上周五的四巫日，大量的期权单被平，本周的空头回补力量可能会更大，市场很可能会因此被挤压向上。如果我们把类似目前这样，在短时间内下跌20%的标普走势排列在一起的话，会发现，目前的跌势是历史数据中最迅速的一次了上图的统计图来自于高盛，橘黄色的走势是目前标普的走势，明蓝色的线是当下跌20%后，市场没有出现衰退时的走势，暗蓝色的是伴随着衰退出现的走势，灰色地带是1950年以来，所有类似走势的区间。我们可以看到，无论衰退发生与否，现在的美股也不是很值得恐慌的时候了。一个黄金大底正在构筑。那么能让美股近期反转的利好是什么呢？除了关税的松绑，很可能就是加息的放缓了。所以，原油的见顶与否，非常的重要。$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ $道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ $黄金主连(GCmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $SP500指数主连(ESmain)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fca70f2d29e78e5ebc0d7ae3e54c02c","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc735d1bac4d8a00ae5c33fe6e02faea","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337b2efaedea87c6d81bfc05425c9875","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/689747677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":689346063,"gmtCreate":1655390900754,"gmtModify":1655390900754,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>又是4个点","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>又是4个点","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$又是4个点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/689346063","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":689356462,"gmtCreate":1655388221761,"gmtModify":1655388221761,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>悲剧的一天","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>悲剧的一天","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$悲剧的一天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/689356462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":680525773,"gmtCreate":1655168984597,"gmtModify":1655170173026,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$</a>加息只会把股市砸下去，对供需没有任何影响。因为疫情封控，生产率下降了，然后供应减少，无论怎么加息，回流的钱无法改善供需，不会投到实业进行生产，物资依旧短缺，继续通胀。&nbsp; 如果装装样子，就硬拖，等封控结束，生产恢复，物资短缺就改善了，局面会更好。无论是否加息，都与此次通胀无关。倒是来军舰过来威胁还能有用些，威胁赶紧开放&nbsp; 自由贸易&nbsp; 接受通胀&nbsp; 更能解决问题","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$</a>加息只会把股市砸下去，对供需没有任何影响。因为疫情封控，生产率下降了，然后供应减少，无论怎么加息，回流的钱无法改善供需，不会投到实业进行生产，物资依旧短缺，继续通胀。&nbsp; 如果装装样子，就硬拖，等封控结束，生产恢复，物资短缺就改善了，局面会更好。无论是否加息，都与此次通胀无关。倒是来军舰过来威胁还能有用些，威胁赶紧开放&nbsp; 自由贸易&nbsp; 接受通胀&nbsp; 更能解决问题","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$加息只会把股市砸下去，对供需没有任何影响。因为疫情封控，生产率下降了，然后供应减少，无论怎么加息，回流的钱无法改善供需，不会投到实业进行生产，物资依旧短缺，继续通胀。 如果装装样子，就硬拖，等封控结束，生产恢复，物资短缺就改善了，局面会更好。无论是否加息，都与此次通胀无关。倒是来军舰过来威胁还能有用些，威胁赶紧开放 自由贸易 接受通胀 更能解决问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/680525773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3444016586296070","authorId":"3444016586296070","name":"哈利波特長","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"中国不解封或者俄乌战争不结束，美国的通货膨胀都不会好，原油可能会到200快，美国经济衰退在所难免","text":"中国不解封或者俄乌战争不结束，美国的通货膨胀都不会好，原油可能会到200快，美国经济衰退在所难免","html":"中国不解封或者俄乌战争不结束，美国的通货膨胀都不会好，原油可能会到200快，美国经济衰退在所难免"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":680539654,"gmtCreate":1655130236180,"gmtModify":1655130236180,"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>又是4个点","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>又是4个点","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$又是4个点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/m/post/680539654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}