葡萄基金的个人主页 - 老虎社区

葡萄基金

葡萄基金

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0勋章

12-05 23:57

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 买了两年收益为零[笑哭]

08-15

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 这玩意真闹心

08-06

段永平真的高手

港股期权｜腾讯涨至四年多新高，获连续买入，中国神华认购合约价格飙升

07-17

这是什么生意

台积电Q2净利润同比暴增近61%，超出市场预期并创历史新高

06-14

$三倍做多FANG+指数-MicroSectors(FNGA)$ 退市就再也没有了吗

06-11

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 大爷，快熬不住了

05-23

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 没想到，能跌这么惨

04-11

$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 跌成球毛了啊[开心] [开心] [开心]

04-10

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 跌起来这么恐怖？

04-04

$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 不敢想象[开心]

02-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

乐观情绪消退，美国2月服务业PMI初值意外陷入萎缩

02-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

潘功胜：中国政府将实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策

02-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

但斌四季度海外持仓曝光！大笔减持英伟达，加仓特斯拉

02-08

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎周报:【一周科技动态】资本开支中的细节讨论：谁最利好？

02-05

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

01-29

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

华尔街深度研究：DeepSeek真能击败美国AI界吗？

01-29

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

DeepSeek创始人梁文锋：我们不过是给国产大模型多拧了几颗螺丝

01-28

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

特朗普突袭！或将对半导体征收关税，叠加DeepSeek冲击，多个亚太市场芯片股崩跌

01-26

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

全球掀DeepSeek复现狂潮！硅谷巨头神话崩塌，30刀见证啊哈时刻

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$&nbsp;</a> 这玩意真闹心","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$&nbsp;</a> 这玩意真闹心","text":"$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 这玩意真闹心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467991725003272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464621468356816,"gmtCreate":1754458085190,"gmtModify":1754458086978,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"段永平真的高手","listText":"段永平真的高手","text":"段永平真的高手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464621468356816","repostId":"1167235155","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167235155","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1754455318,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167235155?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-06 12:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股期权｜腾讯涨至四年多新高，获连续买入，中国神华认购合约价格飙升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167235155","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"港股期权半日成交383955张。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>一、股票期权成交量</strong></p><p>8月6日周三，港股三大指数上午走势震荡，涨跌不一。截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨0.18%，国企指数微跌0.03%，恒生科技指数微涨0.03%。大型科技股中， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a> 涨超2%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a> 涨1.79%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a> 涨0.41%；美团、百度集团跌超1%。“反内卷”相关板块强势，玖龙纸业大涨超11%，马鞍山钢铁续刷阶段新高，中国神华更是创下历史新高。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b636c0ac1d449cb201cbb85361f253c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>港股期权半日成交383955张。其中，腾讯控股成交量位于榜首，期权成交达105556张，占成交总量的近三分之一。阿里巴巴、美团、中国石油股份、小米集团等紧随其后。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8b3375c978daa4f2f98035628b3c25\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"854\"/></p><p><strong>腾讯午盘涨1.79%，盘中摸高570港元，股价创4年多以来新高。数据显示，腾讯获南向资金连续9天净买入，累计净买入金额超44亿港元。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0c1abbcd56bc3c170f2c8d8a8a0440\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>期权方面，两份8月28日到期的认购合约，行权价分别为600及610港元，较现价有5%以上的涨幅空间。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e0abb192a617f2e042d8a9a80796f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"769\"/></p><p>CALL单的价格随行情走高，最高涨幅超86%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d100e24714835a776c72a61c4d632ae5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p><strong>二、异动观察：中国神华创新高，部分认购合约翻倍大涨</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a> 上午盘中涨5%，近三个交易日涨超9%，股价创历史新高。中国神华控股股东国家能源集团拟发行股份及支付现金，购买国家能源集团持有的煤炭等相关资产。中国神华强调，此次交易可增厚EPS，且高回报、可持续分红政策不变。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890452a4acfed6c70706457a348ce84d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>中国神华的认购合约成交价格同步走高，部分合约涨幅超100%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fabc8e473e802833f6081f090f25073\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"155\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股期权｜腾讯涨至四年多新高，获连续买入，中国神华认购合约价格飙升</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股期权｜腾讯涨至四年多新高，获连续买入，中国神华认购合约价格飙升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-06 12:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>一、股票期权成交量</strong></p><p>8月6日周三，港股三大指数上午走势震荡，涨跌不一。截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨0.18%，国企指数微跌0.03%，恒生科技指数微涨0.03%。大型科技股中， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a> 涨超2%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a> 涨1.79%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a> 涨0.41%；美团、百度集团跌超1%。“反内卷”相关板块强势，玖龙纸业大涨超11%，马鞍山钢铁续刷阶段新高，中国神华更是创下历史新高。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b636c0ac1d449cb201cbb85361f253c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>港股期权半日成交383955张。其中，腾讯控股成交量位于榜首，期权成交达105556张，占成交总量的近三分之一。阿里巴巴、美团、中国石油股份、小米集团等紧随其后。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8b3375c978daa4f2f98035628b3c25\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"854\"/></p><p><strong>腾讯午盘涨1.79%，盘中摸高570港元，股价创4年多以来新高。数据显示，腾讯获南向资金连续9天净买入，累计净买入金额超44亿港元。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0c1abbcd56bc3c170f2c8d8a8a0440\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>期权方面，两份8月28日到期的认购合约，行权价分别为600及610港元，较现价有5%以上的涨幅空间。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e0abb192a617f2e042d8a9a80796f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"769\"/></p><p>CALL单的价格随行情走高，最高涨幅超86%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d100e24714835a776c72a61c4d632ae5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p><strong>二、异动观察：中国神华创新高，部分认购合约翻倍大涨</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a> 上午盘中涨5%，近三个交易日涨超9%，股价创历史新高。中国神华控股股东国家能源集团拟发行股份及支付现金，购买国家能源集团持有的煤炭等相关资产。中国神华强调，此次交易可增厚EPS，且高回报、可持续分红政策不变。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890452a4acfed6c70706457a348ce84d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>中国神华的认购合约成交价格同步走高，部分合约涨幅超100%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fabc8e473e802833f6081f090f25073\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"155\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"01088":"中国神华","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167235155","content_text":"一、股票期权成交量8月6日周三，港股三大指数上午走势震荡，涨跌不一。截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨0.18%，国企指数微跌0.03%，恒生科技指数微涨0.03%。大型科技股中， 阿里巴巴-W 涨超2%， 腾讯控股 涨1.79%， 京东集团-SW 涨0.41%；美团、百度集团跌超1%。“反内卷”相关板块强势，玖龙纸业大涨超11%，马鞍山钢铁续刷阶段新高，中国神华更是创下历史新高。港股期权半日成交383955张。其中，腾讯控股成交量位于榜首，期权成交达105556张，占成交总量的近三分之一。阿里巴巴、美团、中国石油股份、小米集团等紧随其后。腾讯午盘涨1.79%，盘中摸高570港元，股价创4年多以来新高。数据显示，腾讯获南向资金连续9天净买入，累计净买入金额超44亿港元。期权方面，两份8月28日到期的认购合约，行权价分别为600及610港元，较现价有5%以上的涨幅空间。CALL单的价格随行情走高，最高涨幅超86%。二、异动观察：中国神华创新高，部分认购合约翻倍大涨中国神华 上午盘中涨5%，近三个交易日涨超9%，股价创历史新高。中国神华控股股东国家能源集团拟发行股份及支付现金，购买国家能源集团持有的煤炭等相关资产。中国神华强调，此次交易可增厚EPS，且高回报、可持续分红政策不变。中国神华的认购合约成交价格同步走高，部分合约涨幅超100%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.1,"01088":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":457500722373096,"gmtCreate":1752731198243,"gmtModify":1752731199287,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是什么生意","listText":"这是什么生意","text":"这是什么生意","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/457500722373096","repostId":"1115936621","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1115936621","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1752730262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115936621?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-17 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电Q2净利润同比暴增近61%，超出市场预期并创历史新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115936621","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月17日，$台积电(TSM)$第二季度净利润3,983亿元新台币，市场预估3,764.2亿元新台币。财报发布后，台积电美股夜盘拉升，现涨超2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>【直播】<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/live/1837262338804345/?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22%3A%221837262338804345%22%2C%22type%22%3A2%7D\" title=\"台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议</a></strong></p><p>7月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>发布2025年第二季度业绩。财报显示，第二季度营收9337.9亿新台币，去年同期6735.1亿新台币；净利润3983亿元台币，市场预估3764.2亿新台币，去年同期2478.45亿新台币；第二季毛利率58.6%，市场预估57.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7304bce88d8d154615518098737492\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p>第二季度收入同比增长38.6%，净利润和稀释每股收益均增长60.7%；与2025年第一季度相比，第二季度收入增长11.3%，净利润增长10.2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a7f05aea4b40b9901182c528acc2a8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p>第二季度，3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的24%，5纳米占36%，7纳米占14%。先进技术（定义为7纳米及更先进的技术）占晶圆总收入的74%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4391846804ed6cde95dc74092efd345e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1333\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3264540865\">业绩电话会要点：</h2><p>台积电预计第三季度销售额318亿美元至330亿美元，市场预估317.2亿美元；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">预计第三季度毛利率55.5％至57.5％，市场预估57.2％；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">预计第三季度营业利益率45.5％至47.5％，市场预估46.9％；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">仍然预测全年资本支出380亿美元至420亿美元；</p><p>预计2025年以美元计算的销售额将增长30%左右，高于此前“接近20%中段”的增长预期。</p><p>财报发布后，台积电美股夜盘拉升，现涨幅扩大至逾4%，待开盘股价势将再创历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d9cff74264cd4a274a0daa156827e73\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电Q2净利润同比暴增近61%，超出市场预期并创历史新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电Q2净利润同比暴增近61%，超出市场预期并创历史新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-17 13:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>【直播】<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/live/1837262338804345/?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22%3A%221837262338804345%22%2C%22type%22%3A2%7D\" title=\"台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议</a></strong></p><p>7月17日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>发布2025年第二季度业绩。财报显示，第二季度营收9337.9亿新台币，去年同期6735.1亿新台币；净利润3983亿元台币，市场预估3764.2亿新台币，去年同期2478.45亿新台币；第二季毛利率58.6%，市场预估57.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7304bce88d8d154615518098737492\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p>第二季度收入同比增长38.6%，净利润和稀释每股收益均增长60.7%；与2025年第一季度相比，第二季度收入增长11.3%，净利润增长10.2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a7f05aea4b40b9901182c528acc2a8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p>第二季度，3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的24%，5纳米占36%，7纳米占14%。先进技术（定义为7纳米及更先进的技术）占晶圆总收入的74%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4391846804ed6cde95dc74092efd345e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1333\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3264540865\">业绩电话会要点：</h2><p>台积电预计第三季度销售额318亿美元至330亿美元，市场预估317.2亿美元；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">预计第三季度毛利率55.5％至57.5％，市场预估57.2％；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">预计第三季度营业利益率45.5％至47.5％，市场预估46.9％；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">仍然预测全年资本支出380亿美元至420亿美元；</p><p>预计2025年以美元计算的销售额将增长30%左右，高于此前“接近20%中段”的增长预期。</p><p>财报发布后，台积电美股夜盘拉升，现涨幅扩大至逾4%，待开盘股价势将再创历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d9cff74264cd4a274a0daa156827e73\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab46ee73bd1bbc4ed7da6a69f14e5d5","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4605":"半导体精选","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU0094547139.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","TSM":"台积电","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115936621","content_text":"【直播】台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议7月17日，台积电发布2025年第二季度业绩。财报显示，第二季度营收9337.9亿新台币，去年同期6735.1亿新台币；净利润3983亿元台币，市场预估3764.2亿新台币，去年同期2478.45亿新台币；第二季毛利率58.6%，市场预估57.9%。第二季度收入同比增长38.6%，净利润和稀释每股收益均增长60.7%；与2025年第一季度相比，第二季度收入增长11.3%，净利润增长10.2%。第二季度，3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的24%，5纳米占36%，7纳米占14%。先进技术（定义为7纳米及更先进的技术）占晶圆总收入的74%。业绩电话会要点：台积电预计第三季度销售额318亿美元至330亿美元，市场预估317.2亿美元；预计第三季度毛利率55.5％至57.5％，市场预估57.2％；预计第三季度营业利益率45.5％至47.5％，市场预估46.9％；仍然预测全年资本支出380亿美元至420亿美元；预计2025年以美元计算的销售额将增长30%左右，高于此前“接近20%中段”的增长预期。财报发布后，台积电美股夜盘拉升，现涨幅扩大至逾4%，待开盘股价势将再创历史新高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445765127775032,"gmtCreate":1749835442896,"gmtModify":1749835444081,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> 跌起来这么恐怖？","text":"$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 跌起来这么恐怖？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/422975257506168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":420838687781104,"gmtCreate":1743775032527,"gmtModify":1743775033859,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> 不敢想象[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOXL\">$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$&nbsp;</a> 不敢想象[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ 不敢想象[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/420838687781104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":406203036004952,"gmtCreate":1740197368922,"gmtModify":1740197370767,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406203036004952","repostId":"1196368014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196368014","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1740149491,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196368014?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-21 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"乐观情绪消退，美国2月服务业PMI初值意外陷入萎缩","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196368014","media":"智通财经网","summary":"创2023年1月以来新低。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周五，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国2月服务业PMI初值意外陷入萎缩，创2023年1月以来新低；此前诸多时间都疲软的制造业继续改善，再度扩张，且好于预期；受服务业拖累，2月Markit综合PMI初值创下2023年9月以来的最低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国2月Markit制造业PMI初值51.6，为连续第二个月录得扩张，预期51.4，前值51.2。50为荣枯分水岭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国2月Markit服务业PMI初值49.7，预期53，前值52.9。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国2月Markit综合PMI初值50.4，为17个月以来的最低水平，预期53.2，前值52.7。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析称，制造业的增长可能是暂时的，部分工厂为了抢在关税生效前提升产量，从而带动了短期增长。与此同时，作为美国经济主要驱动力的服务业指数两年来首次出现收缩。美国2月Markit综合PMI创一年多新低，反映出特朗普政府政策的不确定性对订单和商业预期产生了影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次数据扭转了此前诸多时间服务业强劲、制造业衰退的局面。这是自2022年10月以来首次出现制造业扩张、但服务业收缩的情形。事实上，直到去年年底，美国服务业一直表现出稳健增长，但该指数已连续两个月走弱。新业务流入几乎陷入停滞，虽然仍在扩张，但扩张幅度为10个月以来的最小。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson在一份声明中表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">年初美国企业的乐观情绪已经消散。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>乐观情绪消退，美国2月服务业PMI初值意外陷入萎缩</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n乐观情绪消退，美国2月服务业PMI初值意外陷入萎缩\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-21 22:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1253062.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国2月服务业PMI初值意外陷入萎缩，创2023年1月以来新低；此前诸多时间都疲软的制造业继续改善，再度扩张，且好于预期；受服务业拖累，2月Markit综合PMI初值创下2023年9月以来的最低。美国2月Markit制造业PMI初值51.6，为连续第二个月录得扩张，预期51.4，前值51.2。50为荣枯分水岭。美国2月Markit服务业PMI初值49.7，预期53，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1253062.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c95bdb75bbd57d223ce4095a2f438cc","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1253062.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1196368014","content_text":"周五，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国2月服务业PMI初值意外陷入萎缩，创2023年1月以来新低；此前诸多时间都疲软的制造业继续改善，再度扩张，且好于预期；受服务业拖累，2月Markit综合PMI初值创下2023年9月以来的最低。美国2月Markit制造业PMI初值51.6，为连续第二个月录得扩张，预期51.4，前值51.2。50为荣枯分水岭。美国2月Markit服务业PMI初值49.7，预期53，前值52.9。美国2月Markit综合PMI初值50.4，为17个月以来的最低水平，预期53.2，前值52.7。分析称，制造业的增长可能是暂时的，部分工厂为了抢在关税生效前提升产量，从而带动了短期增长。与此同时，作为美国经济主要驱动力的服务业指数两年来首次出现收缩。美国2月Markit综合PMI创一年多新低，反映出特朗普政府政策的不确定性对订单和商业预期产生了影响。本次数据扭转了此前诸多时间服务业强劲、制造业衰退的局面。这是自2022年10月以来首次出现制造业扩张、但服务业收缩的情形。事实上，直到去年年底，美国服务业一直表现出稳健增长，但该指数已连续两个月走弱。新业务流入几乎陷入停滞，虽然仍在扩张，但扩张幅度为10个月以来的最小。标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson在一份声明中表示：年初美国企业的乐观情绪已经消散。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":404918818492856,"gmtCreate":1739881589126,"gmtModify":1739881590369,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/404918818492856","repostId":"1105810612","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105810612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1739880216,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105810612?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-18 20:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"潘功胜：中国政府将实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105810612","media":"中国人民银行","summary":"巩固和增强经济回升向好势头。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2025年2月16日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜应邀出席由国际货币基金组织与沙特联合主办的新兴市场经济体研讨会，并作主旨发言。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">潘功胜指出，近年来，许多新兴市场经济体在货币政策框架、外汇储备管理、债务结构等方面取得明显进展，抵御外部风险能力持续增强，经济韧性明显提升。新兴市场经济体已成为全球经济增长的重要引擎，全球影响力持续提升。与此同时，当前世界格局正在经历深刻变革，存在诸多不确定性，新兴市场经济体也面临诸多挑战，比如地缘政治和经济碎片化风险、贸易保护主义上升、全球经济中期增长动能不足、金融市场波动和跨境资本流动压力以及全球公共债务风险等。面对挑战，新兴市场经济体应进一步提升自身韧性，继续完善货币政策框架，提升汇率弹性，加强公共债务管理，强化宏观审慎管理和金融监管。同时新兴市场经济体要坚持多边主义，坚持合作共赢，在更大范围、更广领域、更深层次开展南南合作，加强国际宏观经济政策协调，共同促进全球经济增长，维护本国和区域金融稳定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中方愿与基金组织继续加强合作，共同推进全球金融治理改革。基金组织应增加对发展中国家的支持，持续提升双边和多边监督有效性，努力消除贸易、投资与供给方面的限制，推动全球治理朝着公正合理的方向发展。同时，份额占比调整对于基金组织治理、代表性和合法性至关重要。当前份额占比已难以反映新兴市场经济体在全球经济中的实际地位，基金组织应加快改革进程。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">潘功胜指出，2024年，中国经济持续回升向好，实现了全年5%的经济增长目标。特别是去年9月下旬以来，中国政府推出了一揽子增量政策，有效提振社会信心，经济明显回升。<strong>下一步，中国政府将实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化宏观经济政策的逆周期调节，持续推动中国经济增长模式转型，巩固和增强经济回升向好势头。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ec94d065c17663c1d4e09e95c3bd04\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"600\"/></p></body></html>","source":"111133","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>潘功胜：中国政府将实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n潘功胜：中国政府将实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-18 20:03 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5595753/index.html><strong>中国人民银行</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年2月16日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜应邀出席由国际货币基金组织与沙特联合主办的新兴市场经济体研讨会，并作主旨发言。潘功胜指出，近年来，许多新兴市场经济体在货币政策框架、外汇储备管理、债务结构等方面取得明显进展，抵御外部风险能力持续增强，经济韧性明显提升。新兴市场经济体已成为全球经济增长的重要引擎，全球影响力持续提升。与此同时，当前世界格局正在经历深刻变革，存在诸多不确定性，新兴市场经济体也...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5595753/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34c809115b2b1d82a068ba5bc69d6e0","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5595753/index.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105810612","content_text":"2025年2月16日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜应邀出席由国际货币基金组织与沙特联合主办的新兴市场经济体研讨会，并作主旨发言。潘功胜指出，近年来，许多新兴市场经济体在货币政策框架、外汇储备管理、债务结构等方面取得明显进展，抵御外部风险能力持续增强，经济韧性明显提升。新兴市场经济体已成为全球经济增长的重要引擎，全球影响力持续提升。与此同时，当前世界格局正在经历深刻变革，存在诸多不确定性，新兴市场经济体也面临诸多挑战，比如地缘政治和经济碎片化风险、贸易保护主义上升、全球经济中期增长动能不足、金融市场波动和跨境资本流动压力以及全球公共债务风险等。面对挑战，新兴市场经济体应进一步提升自身韧性，继续完善货币政策框架，提升汇率弹性，加强公共债务管理，强化宏观审慎管理和金融监管。同时新兴市场经济体要坚持多边主义，坚持合作共赢，在更大范围、更广领域、更深层次开展南南合作，加强国际宏观经济政策协调，共同促进全球经济增长，维护本国和区域金融稳定。中方愿与基金组织继续加强合作，共同推进全球金融治理改革。基金组织应增加对发展中国家的支持，持续提升双边和多边监督有效性，努力消除贸易、投资与供给方面的限制，推动全球治理朝着公正合理的方向发展。同时，份额占比调整对于基金组织治理、代表性和合法性至关重要。当前份额占比已难以反映新兴市场经济体在全球经济中的实际地位，基金组织应加快改革进程。潘功胜指出，2024年，中国经济持续回升向好，实现了全年5%的经济增长目标。特别是去年9月下旬以来，中国政府推出了一揽子增量政策，有效提振社会信心，经济明显回升。下一步，中国政府将实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化宏观经济政策的逆周期调节，持续推动中国经济增长模式转型，巩固和增强经济回升向好势头。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":402139625910608,"gmtCreate":1739196988701,"gmtModify":1739196990550,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/402139625910608","repostId":"2510857795","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2510857795","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1739196645,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2510857795?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-10 22:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"但斌四季度海外持仓曝光！大笔减持英伟达，加仓特斯拉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2510857795","media":"智通财经","summary":"四季度其大笔减持英伟达，同时加仓特斯拉。此外，截至2024年底，东方港湾海外基金共持有14只标的，前五大重仓标的分别为：英伟达、FNGU、Meta、微软、苹果。大笔减持英伟达 加仓特斯拉具体来看，2024年四季度，东方港湾海外基金新买入3只股票，分别是Palantir、台积电、SoundHound AI;加仓特斯拉;减持英伟达和FNGU。与减持英伟达形成鲜明对比的是，东方港湾在此期间加仓特斯拉。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月10日，但斌旗下东方港湾海外基金ORIENTAL HARBOR INVESTMENT FUND向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)最新提交的美股持仓数据显示，截至2024年四季度末，该基金持仓总市值为9.95亿美元，较三季度的9.69亿美元小幅增加。四季度其大笔减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)，同时加仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)。</p><p>此外，截至2024年底，东方港湾海外基金共持有14只标的，前五大重仓标的分别为：英伟达、FNGU(3倍做多FANG+指数ETN)、Meta(META.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL.US)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2ba4e1f8f38cba313d3e770a417cd8\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><p>此前但斌表示，展望未来，目前从全球来看，最大的机遇仍然是人工智能。环顾全球，没有一个产业能像人工智能这样，有潜力创造巨大的、颠覆性的财富变革。未来五到十年，人工智能都是一个非常好的选择方向。它的崛起，不仅仅是技术的进步，更是人类智慧与机器智能完美结合的体现。它正在深刻地改变着我们的生产方式、生活方式乃至思维方式。从无人驾驶到智能家居，从智能制造到智慧医疗，人工智能的应用场景正在不断扩展，其潜力几乎无法估量。</p><p><strong>大笔减持英伟达，加仓特斯拉</strong></p><p>具体来看，2024年四季度，东方港湾海外基金新买入3只股票，分别是Palantir、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、SoundHound AI;加仓特斯拉;减持英伟达和FNGU。此外，该基金对Meta、微软、苹果、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>C、TQQQ(3倍做多纳斯达克100ETF)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、NVDL(2倍做多英伟达ETF)、TNA(3倍做多小盘股ETF)的持仓保持不变。</p><p>值得注意的是，东方港湾对英伟达的持股在第四季度中经历了显著的减持，减幅达到67.6万股，持股量从208.23万股降至140.63万股，转折后的市值依然高达1.89亿美元，依旧稳居该基金的第一大重仓股。显然，英伟达的表现仍然是东方港湾的投资信心所在，尽管减持的决策显示出但斌对市场变化的审慎思考。</p><p>与减持英伟达形成鲜明对比的是，东方港湾在此期间加仓特斯拉。数据显示，基金对特斯拉的持股量从5.62万股增至12.15万股，显示出对电动车行业未来发展的强烈看好。这个变化不仅反映出特斯拉在全球范围内的成长潜力，同时也显示出东方港湾在新能源汽车领域的战略布局。</p><p>截至2024年底，东方港湾海外基金共持有14只标的，前五大重仓标的分别为：英伟达、FNGU、Meta、微软、苹果。</p><p>对于2024年取得的成绩，但斌本人在社交媒体发文表示：“即便在全球资产管理的舞台上，中国人也是能参与竞争的，当然，这仅仅是一年的情况，来日方长，希望持续努力奋斗。”</p><p>此外，在2024年，东方港湾旗下的多只产品也表现优异，有不少产品的收益率超过50%，在百亿私募中名列前茅。从但斌公开的发言来看，其管理的多只产品均选择了重仓美股的英伟达，而英伟达在2024年涨幅超170%，或是东方港湾业绩亮眼的主要原因。</p><p>这无疑是但斌投资理念的集中体现，尤其是在智能科技的不断发展中，人工智能无疑是最大的投资机会之一。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>但斌四季度海外持仓曝光！大笔减持英伟达，加仓特斯拉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n但斌四季度海外持仓曝光！大笔减持英伟达，加仓特斯拉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-10 22:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1248041.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月10日，但斌旗下东方港湾海外基金ORIENTAL HARBOR INVESTMENT FUND向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)最新提交的美股持仓数据显示，截至2024年四季度末，该基金持仓总市值为9.95亿美元，较三季度的9.69亿美元小幅增加。四季度其大笔减持英伟达(NVDA.US)，同时加仓特斯拉(TSLA.US)。此外，截至2024年底，东方港湾海外基金共持有14只标的，前五大重仓标的分别...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1248041.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0203202063.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A2X\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) 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ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2361045086.USD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1248041.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2510857795","content_text":"2月10日，但斌旗下东方港湾海外基金ORIENTAL HARBOR INVESTMENT FUND向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)最新提交的美股持仓数据显示，截至2024年四季度末，该基金持仓总市值为9.95亿美元，较三季度的9.69亿美元小幅增加。四季度其大笔减持英伟达(NVDA.US)，同时加仓特斯拉(TSLA.US)。此外，截至2024年底，东方港湾海外基金共持有14只标的，前五大重仓标的分别为：英伟达、FNGU(3倍做多FANG+指数ETN)、Meta(META.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、苹果(AAPL.US)。此前但斌表示，展望未来，目前从全球来看，最大的机遇仍然是人工智能。环顾全球，没有一个产业能像人工智能这样，有潜力创造巨大的、颠覆性的财富变革。未来五到十年，人工智能都是一个非常好的选择方向。它的崛起，不仅仅是技术的进步，更是人类智慧与机器智能完美结合的体现。它正在深刻地改变着我们的生产方式、生活方式乃至思维方式。从无人驾驶到智能家居，从智能制造到智慧医疗，人工智能的应用场景正在不断扩展，其潜力几乎无法估量。大笔减持英伟达，加仓特斯拉具体来看，2024年四季度，东方港湾海外基金新买入3只股票，分别是Palantir、台积电、SoundHound AI;加仓特斯拉;减持英伟达和FNGU。此外，该基金对Meta、微软、苹果、谷歌C、TQQQ(3倍做多纳斯达克100ETF)、亚马逊、NVDL(2倍做多英伟达ETF)、TNA(3倍做多小盘股ETF)的持仓保持不变。值得注意的是，东方港湾对英伟达的持股在第四季度中经历了显著的减持，减幅达到67.6万股，持股量从208.23万股降至140.63万股，转折后的市值依然高达1.89亿美元，依旧稳居该基金的第一大重仓股。显然，英伟达的表现仍然是东方港湾的投资信心所在，尽管减持的决策显示出但斌对市场变化的审慎思考。与减持英伟达形成鲜明对比的是，东方港湾在此期间加仓特斯拉。数据显示，基金对特斯拉的持股量从5.62万股增至12.15万股，显示出对电动车行业未来发展的强烈看好。这个变化不仅反映出特斯拉在全球范围内的成长潜力，同时也显示出东方港湾在新能源汽车领域的战略布局。截至2024年底，东方港湾海外基金共持有14只标的，前五大重仓标的分别为：英伟达、FNGU、Meta、微软、苹果。对于2024年取得的成绩，但斌本人在社交媒体发文表示：“即便在全球资产管理的舞台上，中国人也是能参与竞争的，当然，这仅仅是一年的情况，来日方长，希望持续努力奋斗。”此外，在2024年，东方港湾旗下的多只产品也表现优异，有不少产品的收益率超过50%，在百亿私募中名列前茅。从但斌公开的发言来看，其管理的多只产品均选择了重仓美股的英伟达，而英伟达在2024年涨幅超170%，或是东方港湾业绩亮眼的主要原因。这无疑是但斌投资理念的集中体现，尤其是在智能科技的不断发展中，人工智能无疑是最大的投资机会之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1,"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":401295379816784,"gmtCreate":1738980047974,"gmtModify":1738980050024,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/401295379816784","repostId":"400983600341040","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":400983600341040,"gmtCreate":1738921295110,"gmtModify":1745202047347,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"【一周科技动态】资本开支中的细节讨论：谁最利好？","htmlText":"涨跌纷纭——一周大科技表现DeepSeek——Trump关税——科技公司财报，这是这几周美股市场的交易主旋律。今年以来的市场波动明显提升，宏观层面既有对美联储“降息”的忧虑，又有对Trump关税下强美元的担心。美债收益率是不出意外的回调了，甚至还早于美联储的议息会议，因DeepSeek的影响反意外提早触发了避险性的回调；Trump的关税倒不是个新鲜事，在1.0时期就有，市场虽然介意，但更明白它的意义更多在谈判(Bargain)，因此也跟容易被消化；倒是大科技的财报对市场的指引性影响更大。科技公司中，除了META一直是开源，相应的用户也更多，DeepSeek这样突破性的开源模型反而对它有帮助；AAPL因为在AI上落后太多，反而被认为是受益者；倒是对MSFT的打击相对更大一些。从MSFT/GOOG/AMZN的Q4财报中也能发现，至少在Q4云服务的增速都低于市场预期，且一致口径都是AI需求较大反而产能面临挑战，按这个逻辑，他们也给出了更高的资本开支指引。至2月6日收盘，过去一周，大科技公司走势仍然出现分化。其中 AAPL-1.84%，NVDA+3.23%，MSFT+0.20%，AMZN+1.79%，GOOG-4.61%，META+3.64%，TSLA-6.49%。影响资产组合的核心交易策略——一周大科技核心观点Q4大科技财报中资本开支提升中的一些细节META\\AMZN\\GOOGL这三家公司的Q4财报整体趋势表现得比较相似，都是主营业务稍超预期（广告、电商，得益于经济软着陆），且利润率有所提升（边际效益增加），但AI变现方面的云服务相对比Consensus差一些，都表示是云计算的产能问题，因此理所当然地提升Capex。Capex的预期管理方面，GOOGL因为此前鲜有预期，所以提升后市场Surprise成都深，也就跌的多些；反观META则非常圆滑，财报前就与市场沟通了Capex上涨至","listText":"涨跌纷纭——一周大科技表现DeepSeek——Trump关税——科技公司财报，这是这几周美股市场的交易主旋律。今年以来的市场波动明显提升，宏观层面既有对美联储“降息”的忧虑，又有对Trump关税下强美元的担心。美债收益率是不出意外的回调了，甚至还早于美联储的议息会议，因DeepSeek的影响反意外提早触发了避险性的回调；Trump的关税倒不是个新鲜事，在1.0时期就有，市场虽然介意，但更明白它的意义更多在谈判(Bargain)，因此也跟容易被消化；倒是大科技的财报对市场的指引性影响更大。科技公司中，除了META一直是开源，相应的用户也更多，DeepSeek这样突破性的开源模型反而对它有帮助；AAPL因为在AI上落后太多，反而被认为是受益者；倒是对MSFT的打击相对更大一些。从MSFT/GOOG/AMZN的Q4财报中也能发现，至少在Q4云服务的增速都低于市场预期，且一致口径都是AI需求较大反而产能面临挑战，按这个逻辑，他们也给出了更高的资本开支指引。至2月6日收盘，过去一周，大科技公司走势仍然出现分化。其中 AAPL-1.84%，NVDA+3.23%，MSFT+0.20%，AMZN+1.79%，GOOG-4.61%，META+3.64%，TSLA-6.49%。影响资产组合的核心交易策略——一周大科技核心观点Q4大科技财报中资本开支提升中的一些细节META\\AMZN\\GOOGL这三家公司的Q4财报整体趋势表现得比较相似，都是主营业务稍超预期（广告、电商，得益于经济软着陆），且利润率有所提升（边际效益增加），但AI变现方面的云服务相对比Consensus差一些，都表示是云计算的产能问题，因此理所当然地提升Capex。Capex的预期管理方面，GOOGL因为此前鲜有预期，所以提升后市场Surprise成都深，也就跌的多些；反观META则非常圆滑，财报前就与市场沟通了Capex上涨至","text":"涨跌纷纭——一周大科技表现DeepSeek——Trump关税——科技公司财报，这是这几周美股市场的交易主旋律。今年以来的市场波动明显提升，宏观层面既有对美联储“降息”的忧虑，又有对Trump关税下强美元的担心。美债收益率是不出意外的回调了，甚至还早于美联储的议息会议，因DeepSeek的影响反意外提早触发了避险性的回调；Trump的关税倒不是个新鲜事，在1.0时期就有，市场虽然介意，但更明白它的意义更多在谈判(Bargain)，因此也跟容易被消化；倒是大科技的财报对市场的指引性影响更大。科技公司中，除了META一直是开源，相应的用户也更多，DeepSeek这样突破性的开源模型反而对它有帮助；AAPL因为在AI上落后太多，反而被认为是受益者；倒是对MSFT的打击相对更大一些。从MSFT/GOOG/AMZN的Q4财报中也能发现，至少在Q4云服务的增速都低于市场预期，且一致口径都是AI需求较大反而产能面临挑战，按这个逻辑，他们也给出了更高的资本开支指引。至2月6日收盘，过去一周，大科技公司走势仍然出现分化。其中 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23:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街深度研究：DeepSeek真能击败美国AI界吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129375603","media":"硬AI","summary":"“500万美元复制OpenAI”是误读。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>春节期间，DeepSeek新一代开源模型以惊人的低成本和高性能引发热议，在全球投资界引发剧震。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场上甚至出现了DeepSeek&#34;仅用500万美元就复制OpenAI&#34;的说法，认为这将给整个AI基础设施产业带来“末日”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对此，华尔街知名投行伯恩斯坦在详细研究DeepSeek技术文档后发布报告称，<strong>这种市场恐慌情绪明显过度，DeepSeek用“500万美元复制OpenAI”是市场误读。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，该行认为，虽然DeepSeek的效率提升显著，但从技术角度看，并非奇迹。而且，即便DeepSeek确实实现了10倍的效率提升，这也仅相当于当前AI模型每年的成本增长幅度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该行还表示，目前AI计算需求远未触及天花板，新增算力很可能会被不断增长的使用需求吸收，因此对AI板块保持乐观。</p><h2 id=\"id_3058056930\" style=\"text-align: start;\">“500万美元复制OpenAI”是误读</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于“500万美元复制OpenAI”的说法，伯恩斯坦认为，实际上是对DeepSeek V3模型训练成本的片面解读，简单将GPU租用成本计算等同于了总投入：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这500万美元仅仅是基于每GPU小时2美元的租赁价格估算的V3模型训练成本，并未包括前期研发投入、数据成本以及其他相关费用</strong>。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1352850676\" style=\"text-align: start;\">技术创新：效率大幅提升但非颠覆性突破</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">接着，伯恩斯坦在报告中详细分析了DeepSeek发布的两大模型V3、R1详细技术特点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>（1）V3模型的效率革命</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该行表示，V3模型采用专家混合架构，用2048块NVIDIA H800 GPU、约270万GPU小时就达到了可与主流大模型媲美的性能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">具体而言，V3模型采用了<strong>混合专家（MoE）架构</strong>，这一架构本身就旨在降低训练和运行成本。在此基础上，V3还结合了<strong>多头潜在注意力（MHLA）技术</strong>，显著降低了缓存大小和内存使用。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，<strong>FP8混合精度训练</strong>的运用进一步优化了性能表现。这些技术的综合运用，使得V3模型在训练时仅需同等规模开源模型约9%的算力，便能达到甚至超越其性能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">例如，V3预训练仅需约270万GPU小时，而同样规模的开源LLaMA模型则需要约3000万GPU小时。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>MoE架构:</strong> 每次只激活部分参数，减少计算量。</p></li><li><p><strong>MHLA技术:</strong> 降低内存占用，提升效率。</p></li><li><p><strong>FP8混合精度训练:</strong> 在保证性能的同时，进一步提升计算效率。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4543f9f116cb4ba8201679ceafb04db\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1221\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谈及V3模型带来的效率提升，伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>与业界3-7倍的常见效率提升相比并非颠覆性突破：</strong></p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">MoE架构的重点是显著降低训练和运行的成本，因为在任何一次只有一部分参数集是活动的（例如，当训练V3时，只有671B个参数中的37B为任何一个令牌更新，而密集模型中所有参数都被更新）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对其他MoE比较的调查表明，典型的效率是3-7倍，而类似大小的密度模型具有类似的性能；</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">V3看起来甚至比这个更好（10倍以上），可能考虑到该公司在模型中带来的其他一些创新，但认为这是完全革命性的想法似乎有点夸张，并且不值得歇斯底里。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>（2）R1模型的推理能力与“蒸馏”策略</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">DeepSeek的R1模型则在V3的基础上，通过强化学习（RL）等创新技术，显著提升了推理能力，使其能够与OpenAI的o1模型相媲美。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8785cd3b64cf48b0d974e20351aa9c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"706\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，DeepSeek还采用了“<strong>模型蒸馏</strong>”策略，利用R1模型作为“教师”，生成数据来微调更小的模型，这些小模型在性能上可以与OpenAI的o1-mini等竞争模型相媲美。这种策略不仅降低了成本，也为AI技术的普及提供了新的思路。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>强化学习（RL）：</strong> 提升模型推理能力。</p></li><li><p><strong>模型蒸馏:</strong> 利用大模型训练小模型，降低成本。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1334363986\" style=\"text-align: start;\">对AI板块保持乐观</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>即便DeepSeek确实实现了10倍的效率提升，这也仅相当于当前AI模型每年的成本增长幅度。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，<strong>在“模型规模定律”不断推动成本上升的背景下，像MoE、模型蒸馏、混合精度计算等创新对AI发展至关重要。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据杰文斯悖论，效率提升通常会带来更大的需求，而非削减开支。<strong>该行认为，目前AI计算需求远未触及天花板，新增算力很可能会被不断增长的使用需求吸收。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于以上分析，伯恩斯坦对AI板块保持乐观。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1690508328926","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街深度研究：DeepSeek真能击败美国AI界吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街深度研究：DeepSeek真能击败美国AI界吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-29 23:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3740193><strong>硬AI</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>春节期间，DeepSeek新一代开源模型以惊人的低成本和高性能引发热议，在全球投资界引发剧震。市场上甚至出现了DeepSeek\"仅用500万美元就复制OpenAI\"的说法，认为这将给整个AI基础设施产业带来“末日”。对此，华尔街知名投行伯恩斯坦在详细研究DeepSeek技术文档后发布报告称，这种市场恐慌情绪明显过度，DeepSeek用“500万美元复制OpenAI”是市场误读。另外，该行认为，虽然...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3740193\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4e1ff8a8f3ef9b71959d07d4048d2e","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3740193","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129375603","content_text":"春节期间，DeepSeek新一代开源模型以惊人的低成本和高性能引发热议，在全球投资界引发剧震。市场上甚至出现了DeepSeek\"仅用500万美元就复制OpenAI\"的说法，认为这将给整个AI基础设施产业带来“末日”。对此，华尔街知名投行伯恩斯坦在详细研究DeepSeek技术文档后发布报告称，这种市场恐慌情绪明显过度，DeepSeek用“500万美元复制OpenAI”是市场误读。另外，该行认为，虽然DeepSeek的效率提升显著，但从技术角度看，并非奇迹。而且，即便DeepSeek确实实现了10倍的效率提升，这也仅相当于当前AI模型每年的成本增长幅度。该行还表示，目前AI计算需求远未触及天花板，新增算力很可能会被不断增长的使用需求吸收，因此对AI板块保持乐观。“500万美元复制OpenAI”是误读对于“500万美元复制OpenAI”的说法，伯恩斯坦认为，实际上是对DeepSeek V3模型训练成本的片面解读，简单将GPU租用成本计算等同于了总投入：这500万美元仅仅是基于每GPU小时2美元的租赁价格估算的V3模型训练成本，并未包括前期研发投入、数据成本以及其他相关费用。技术创新：效率大幅提升但非颠覆性突破接着，伯恩斯坦在报告中详细分析了DeepSeek发布的两大模型V3、R1详细技术特点。（1）V3模型的效率革命该行表示，V3模型采用专家混合架构，用2048块NVIDIA H800 GPU、约270万GPU小时就达到了可与主流大模型媲美的性能。具体而言，V3模型采用了混合专家（MoE）架构，这一架构本身就旨在降低训练和运行成本。在此基础上，V3还结合了多头潜在注意力（MHLA）技术，显著降低了缓存大小和内存使用。同时，FP8混合精度训练的运用进一步优化了性能表现。这些技术的综合运用，使得V3模型在训练时仅需同等规模开源模型约9%的算力，便能达到甚至超越其性能。例如，V3预训练仅需约270万GPU小时，而同样规模的开源LLaMA模型则需要约3000万GPU小时。MoE架构: 每次只激活部分参数，减少计算量。MHLA技术: 降低内存占用，提升效率。FP8混合精度训练: 在保证性能的同时，进一步提升计算效率。谈及V3模型带来的效率提升，伯恩斯坦认为，与业界3-7倍的常见效率提升相比并非颠覆性突破：MoE架构的重点是显著降低训练和运行的成本，因为在任何一次只有一部分参数集是活动的（例如，当训练V3时，只有671B个参数中的37B为任何一个令牌更新，而密集模型中所有参数都被更新）。对其他MoE比较的调查表明，典型的效率是3-7倍，而类似大小的密度模型具有类似的性能；V3看起来甚至比这个更好（10倍以上），可能考虑到该公司在模型中带来的其他一些创新，但认为这是完全革命性的想法似乎有点夸张，并且不值得歇斯底里。（2）R1模型的推理能力与“蒸馏”策略DeepSeek的R1模型则在V3的基础上，通过强化学习（RL）等创新技术，显著提升了推理能力，使其能够与OpenAI的o1模型相媲美。值得一提的是，DeepSeek还采用了“模型蒸馏”策略，利用R1模型作为“教师”，生成数据来微调更小的模型，这些小模型在性能上可以与OpenAI的o1-mini等竞争模型相媲美。这种策略不仅降低了成本，也为AI技术的普及提供了新的思路。强化学习（RL）： 提升模型推理能力。模型蒸馏: 利用大模型训练小模型，降低成本。对AI板块保持乐观伯恩斯坦认为，即便DeepSeek确实实现了10倍的效率提升，这也仅相当于当前AI模型每年的成本增长幅度。事实上，在“模型规模定律”不断推动成本上升的背景下，像MoE、模型蒸馏、混合精度计算等创新对AI发展至关重要。根据杰文斯悖论，效率提升通常会带来更大的需求，而非削减开支。该行认为，目前AI计算需求远未触及天花板，新增算力很可能会被不断增长的使用需求吸收。基于以上分析，伯恩斯坦对AI板块保持乐观。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.1,"GOOG":1.1,"NVDA":1.1,"META":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397594246599232,"gmtCreate":1738091514982,"gmtModify":1738091517061,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397594246599232","repostId":"1119272545","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119272545","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738075603,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119272545?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-01-28 22:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"DeepSeek创始人梁文锋：我们不过是给国产大模型多拧了几颗螺丝","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119272545","media":"新浪美股","summary":"站在开源社区巨人们的肩膀上。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>　　近日，国内游戏科学领域的领军人物冯骥在游戏科学官方平台上，对DeepSeek大模型表达了高度赞赏，称其为“国运级别的科技成果”。这一评价迅速在游戏及科技圈内引起了广泛关注。冯骥在发文中详细列举了DeepSeek的六大卓越特性，每一项都堪称业界突破。在知乎相关的问题下，幻方和深度求索（DeepSeek）两家公司的创始人梁文锋回答道：我们不过是站在开源社区巨人们的肩膀上，给国产大模型这栋大厦多拧了几颗螺丝。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　<strong>以下为梁文锋回应全文：</strong></p><p>　　各位知乎的年轻朋友好，我是深度求索（DeepSeek）的梁文锋，刚回答了一个问题，又看到这个问题，除夕之夜忍不住回复一些。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　前几天看到冯总这篇长文时，我正在调试新模型的损失函数，手边的咖啡直接洒在了键盘上——既因为被行业前辈认可的惶恐，更因为冯总这些灼热的文字让我想起十二年前在浙大实验室第一次跑通神经网络时的颤栗。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　必须坦白，团队读到“国运级”这个形容时所有人头皮都是麻的。我们不过是站在开源社区巨人们的肩膀上，给国产大模型这栋大厦多拧了几颗螺丝。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　您提到的六大突破，其实每一环都凝结着更动人的故事：那个能在手机上跑的mini模型，灵感来自甘肃一位中学老师在GitHub提的issue；支持联网搜索的功能，是内测用户连续三十天凌晨三点提交错误日志喂出来的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　特别想分享个细节：上周有位视障开发者用我们的API做了个“气味导航”应用，当他演示如何通过不同频率的震动识别街道商铺时整个会议室安静得能听见显卡风扇的嗡鸣，那一刻我突然眼眶发热，终于理解了您说的“水与电”一一<strong>真正伟大的从不是某个模型，而是千万普通人用它创造的善意涟漪。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　冯总说“知识和信息平权”，这正是我们夜夜啃论文的动力。三年前在余杭塘路的小仓库里，我们曾用马克笔在玻璃墙上写下：“让最偏远山村的孩童，能和硅谷工程师用上同样聪明的AI助教”。虽然离这个梦想还很远但每次看到网友们分享的对话截图，就觉得那些熬掉的头发都值得，</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　最后想对所有人说：请把掌声留给正在改写规则的每个中国开发者。当你在公交车上调试模型，在早餐摊前画架构图，在产房里突深明级“的瞬间。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　DeepSeek愿做大家代码荒野里的火柴，但真正点燃AI火种的，永远是你们眼底不灭的好奇与坚持，说来特别巧，上周在云栖小镇的创业者夜宵摊上，我还和宇树科技的王总蹲在马路牙子啃烧烤一一他们给四足机器人装的那个动态平衡算法，看得我们团队直拍大腿。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　后来强脑科技的韩总过来拼桌，三句话不离脑机接口与具身智能的融合可能，烤茄子还没上桌，我们已经开始在白纸上画异构计算架构了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　这就是杭州最迷人的地方吧，所谓“六小龙”从来不是六个孤岛。上个月游科的艺术总监还帮我们调试过3D场景生成模型，而群核的渲染引擎正在让我们的数字人拥有更生动的微表情。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　或许在不远的未来，当宇树的机器人踩着云深处的步态算法走来，搭载着强脑的神经接口，运行着DeepSeek的认知引擎，用群核构建的虚拟世界作为训练场——那个我们幻想中的具身智能，就会从西溪湿地的晨雾里跌跌撞撞地走向人间。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　记得那晚分别时，冯总把竹签子往啤酒瓶里一插，说了句：“你们搞AI的得把灵魂价格打下来啊。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　现在想来，<strong>真正的“国运”或许就藏在这些街边摊的油烟气里：一群不信邪的傻子，用代码当砖瓦，拿算法做钢筋，在资本与质疑的裂缝中，硬生生垒出通向未来的栈桥。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　最后补充一个招聘，欢迎大家加入我们。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　祝大家除夕快乐，来年期待我们的更多模型。</p></body></html>","source":"xlmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DeepSeek创始人梁文锋：我们不过是给国产大模型多拧了几颗螺丝</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDeepSeek创始人梁文锋：我们不过是给国产大模型多拧了几颗螺丝\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-28 22:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2025-01-28/doc-inehpyiu6546187.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，国内游戏科学领域的领军人物冯骥在游戏科学官方平台上，对DeepSeek大模型表达了高度赞赏，称其为“国运级别的科技成果”。这一评价迅速在游戏及科技圈内引起了广泛关注。冯骥在发文中详细列举了DeepSeek的六大卓越特性，每一项都堪称业界突破。在知乎相关的问题下，幻方和深度求索（DeepSeek）两家公司的创始人梁文锋回答道：我们不过是站在开源社区巨人们的肩膀上，给国产大模型这栋大厦多拧了几颗...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2025-01-28/doc-inehpyiu6546187.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86241243ddbd652db965dc9cb039188a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2025-01-28/doc-inehpyiu6546187.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119272545","content_text":"近日，国内游戏科学领域的领军人物冯骥在游戏科学官方平台上，对DeepSeek大模型表达了高度赞赏，称其为“国运级别的科技成果”。这一评价迅速在游戏及科技圈内引起了广泛关注。冯骥在发文中详细列举了DeepSeek的六大卓越特性，每一项都堪称业界突破。在知乎相关的问题下，幻方和深度求索（DeepSeek）两家公司的创始人梁文锋回答道：我们不过是站在开源社区巨人们的肩膀上，给国产大模型这栋大厦多拧了几颗螺丝。　　以下为梁文锋回应全文：　　各位知乎的年轻朋友好，我是深度求索（DeepSeek）的梁文锋，刚回答了一个问题，又看到这个问题，除夕之夜忍不住回复一些。　　前几天看到冯总这篇长文时，我正在调试新模型的损失函数，手边的咖啡直接洒在了键盘上——既因为被行业前辈认可的惶恐，更因为冯总这些灼热的文字让我想起十二年前在浙大实验室第一次跑通神经网络时的颤栗。　　必须坦白，团队读到“国运级”这个形容时所有人头皮都是麻的。我们不过是站在开源社区巨人们的肩膀上，给国产大模型这栋大厦多拧了几颗螺丝。　　您提到的六大突破，其实每一环都凝结着更动人的故事：那个能在手机上跑的mini模型，灵感来自甘肃一位中学老师在GitHub提的issue；支持联网搜索的功能，是内测用户连续三十天凌晨三点提交错误日志喂出来的。　　特别想分享个细节：上周有位视障开发者用我们的API做了个“气味导航”应用，当他演示如何通过不同频率的震动识别街道商铺时整个会议室安静得能听见显卡风扇的嗡鸣，那一刻我突然眼眶发热，终于理解了您说的“水与电”一一真正伟大的从不是某个模型，而是千万普通人用它创造的善意涟漪。　　冯总说“知识和信息平权”，这正是我们夜夜啃论文的动力。三年前在余杭塘路的小仓库里，我们曾用马克笔在玻璃墙上写下：“让最偏远山村的孩童，能和硅谷工程师用上同样聪明的AI助教”。虽然离这个梦想还很远但每次看到网友们分享的对话截图，就觉得那些熬掉的头发都值得，　　最后想对所有人说：请把掌声留给正在改写规则的每个中国开发者。当你在公交车上调试模型，在早餐摊前画架构图，在产房里突深明级“的瞬间。　　DeepSeek愿做大家代码荒野里的火柴，但真正点燃AI火种的，永远是你们眼底不灭的好奇与坚持，说来特别巧，上周在云栖小镇的创业者夜宵摊上，我还和宇树科技的王总蹲在马路牙子啃烧烤一一他们给四足机器人装的那个动态平衡算法，看得我们团队直拍大腿。　　后来强脑科技的韩总过来拼桌，三句话不离脑机接口与具身智能的融合可能，烤茄子还没上桌，我们已经开始在白纸上画异构计算架构了。　　这就是杭州最迷人的地方吧，所谓“六小龙”从来不是六个孤岛。上个月游科的艺术总监还帮我们调试过3D场景生成模型，而群核的渲染引擎正在让我们的数字人拥有更生动的微表情。　　或许在不远的未来，当宇树的机器人踩着云深处的步态算法走来，搭载着强脑的神经接口，运行着DeepSeek的认知引擎，用群核构建的虚拟世界作为训练场——那个我们幻想中的具身智能，就会从西溪湿地的晨雾里跌跌撞撞地走向人间。　　记得那晚分别时，冯总把竹签子往啤酒瓶里一插，说了句：“你们搞AI的得把灵魂价格打下来啊。”　　现在想来，真正的“国运”或许就藏在这些街边摊的油烟气里：一群不信邪的傻子，用代码当砖瓦，拿算法做钢筋，在资本与质疑的裂缝中，硬生生垒出通向未来的栈桥。　　最后补充一个招聘，欢迎大家加入我们。　　祝大家除夕快乐，来年期待我们的更多模型。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397379210285680,"gmtCreate":1738038981656,"gmtModify":1738038983699,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397379210285680","repostId":"1189477926","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189477926","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1738034997,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189477926?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-01-28 11:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普突袭！或将对半导体征收关税，叠加DeepSeek冲击，多个亚太市场芯片股崩跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189477926","media":"券商中国","summary":"刚刚，消息传来，美国总统特朗普表示，将很快对半导体征收关税。特朗普表示，将美国制造产品的税率降低至15%；将考虑对药品、钢铁、铝、铜征收关税。特朗普当地时间周一在演讲中表示：“在不久的将来，我们将对美国之外生产的计算机芯片、半导体和药品征收关税，以将这些必需品的生产转移回美国。”与此同时，日元大幅杀跌，美元指数再度飙升。图片图片分析人士认为，除了特朗普的“突袭”之外，DeepSeek亦是半导体等板块巨震的重要因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>刚刚，消息传来，美国总统特朗普表示，将很快对半导体征收关税。特朗普表示，将美国制造产品的税率降低至15%；将考虑对药品、钢铁、铝、铜征收关税。摆脱关税的唯一办法是在美国建厂。与此同时，美国财长贝森特正在推动起点为2.5%并逐步提高的新关税普征计划。</p><p>受此影响，并叠加DeepSeek冲击。今天早盘，日本股市继续大幅杀跌，软银跌幅一度达5%，东京电子跌超5%。与此同时，汇市也于今天早上大幅震荡，美元兑日元和美元兑人民币皆大幅走高，美元指数亦开启反攻。</p><p>此外，与数据中心相关的亚洲股票重挫。澳大利亚的嘉民集团（Goodman Group）一度跌8.4%，NEXTDC跌9.3%，HMC Capital跌6.7%，DigiCo REIT跌14%。日本上市的英伟达测试机供应商Advantest一度下跌10%，迪斯科跌9.4%，古河电工跌8.5%，藤仓跌9.2%。马来西亚YTL 电力国际股价一度下挫9.0% ，YTL下跌5.7%， IJM Corp.跌6.6%，Gamuda跌2.7%， Sunway跌3.3%。</p><p><strong>特朗普动手</strong></p><p>北京时间今天早上，外媒传来消息，特朗普表示，在不久的将来，对美国之外生产的芯片等产品征收关税。</p><p>特朗普当地时间周一在演讲中表示：“在不久的将来，我们将对美国之外生产的计算机芯片、半导体和药品征收关税，以将这些必需品的生产转移回美国。”</p><p>许多美国领先科技公司一直在从台积电采购处理器，虽然台积电在亚利桑那州建立了一家工厂，但其大部分芯片生产仍在中国台湾进行，该公司一直为苹果、英伟达、高通和AMD等客户提供服务。 </p><p>特朗普在猛烈批评美国的《芯片与科学法案》时表示：“我们希望他们回来。”该法案由他的前任总统拜登签署，旨在投资超过520亿美元用于国内芯片制造业。“我们不想给他们数十亿美元，就像拜登给每个人的这个荒谬计划一样。他们已经有数十亿美元了，”特朗普说。“他们除了钱什么都没有。他们不需要钱。他们需要激励。激励就是他们不想支付25%、50%甚至100%的税。他们会用自己的钱建工厂，我们不必给他们钱。”特朗普补充道：“给了他们钱，他们却不知道要用这笔钱做什么。”</p><p>去年，英特尔从《芯片与科学法案》中获得了79亿美元，这笔钱将用于扩建其在亚利桑那州、新墨西哥州、俄勒冈州和俄亥俄州的工厂，该公司正在这些地方建设一个新的芯片制造中心。</p><p>即便如此，特朗普仍认为他的关税威胁将促使更多美国科技公司将芯片制造转移到美国。然而，建造一家芯片工厂需要数年时间，这意味着对美国之外生产的芯片征收任何关税都可能导致许多计算机产品价格上涨，例如英伟达的显卡、苹果电脑、手机和AMD处理器，这些产品都来自台积电工厂。另外，台积电制造的芯片通常不会直接出口到美国，而是运往其他地区，然后在那里组装成运往美国的消费电子产品。</p><p>另据英国《金融时报》当地时间周一报道，特朗普挑选的财政部长贝森特一直在推动对美国进口产品征收新的普遍关税，起始税率为2.5%，并每月以相同的幅度逐步上调。</p><p><strong>双重冲击</strong></p><p>今早，日本股市动荡，东京电子一度崩跌超5%，软银续跌5%。日经指数一度大跌超1.3%。与此同时，日元大幅杀跌，美元指数再度飙升。</p><p> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/edf1a759ec8624079d6de929afd60df8\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"378\"/><span>图片</span></p><p><br/></p><p>分析人士认为，除了特朗普的“突袭”之外，DeepSeek亦是半导体等板块巨震的重要因素。DeepSeek在没有投入同样数额的资金的情况下在人工智能方面取得进展，导致美股AI板块大幅杀估值，并有可能冲击美国上周推出的由OpenAI、甲骨文和软银共同投资的5000亿美元人工智能项目。</p><p>日本上市的英伟达测试机供应商Advantest股价一度下跌超10%。</p><p> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a7a3a17fa282d353130e901677153eb0\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"393\"/><span>图片</span></p><p>比较有意思的是特朗普的态度。他于当地时间周一在迈阿密对众议院共和党人发表讲话时表示，关于DeepSeek的消息是“积极的”，因为“你不需要花费太多，就能得到同样的结果”。特朗普表示，这也是“对我们行业的一个警钟，我们需要全神贯注于竞争才能取胜。”</p><p>昨晚大跌近17%之后，英伟达亦表示，DeepSeek是一项卓越的人工智能进展，也是测试时扩展的绝佳范例。DeepSeek的研究展示了如何运用该技术，借助广泛可用的模型以及完全符合出口管制规定的算力，创建新模型。推理过程需要大量英伟达GPU和高性能网络。如今英伟达有三条扩展定律：持续适用的预训练和后训练定律，以及新的测试时扩展定律。美股盘后，英伟达股价一度涨超3%，但随后仍有所回落。</p><p>DeepSeek的冲击波可能仍未结束。人工智能社区HuggingFace显示，DeepSeek刚刚发布了开源多模态人工智能模型Janus-Pro。其中Janus-Pro-7B在GenEval和DPG-Bench基准测试中击败了OpenAl的DALL-E3和StableDiffusion。资料显示，Janus-Pro是DeepSeek最新升级的多模态大模型，不仅能生成图像，也能对图片进行描述、识别图像中的文字、知名景点，并对图片内容进行解读；目前该模型已经开放下载，70亿和15亿的参数量，意味着普通消费级电脑也能跑得动。</p><p><br/></p></body></html>","source":"cszg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普突袭！或将对半导体征收关税，叠加DeepSeek冲击，多个亚太市场芯片股崩跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-28 11:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u7VdmAOmZvtvI3O1mm2pNg><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>刚刚，消息传来，美国总统特朗普表示，将很快对半导体征收关税。特朗普表示，将美国制造产品的税率降低至15%；将考虑对药品、钢铁、铝、铜征收关税。摆脱关税的唯一办法是在美国建厂。与此同时，美国财长贝森特正在推动起点为2.5%并逐步提高的新关税普征计划。受此影响，并叠加DeepSeek冲击。今天早盘，日本股市继续大幅杀跌，软银跌幅一度达5%，东京电子跌超5%。与此同时，汇市也于今天早上大幅震荡，美元兑...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u7VdmAOmZvtvI3O1mm2pNg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6b349024c9e1ab5b9d5e7f56a0c3cf","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u7VdmAOmZvtvI3O1mm2pNg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189477926","content_text":"刚刚，消息传来，美国总统特朗普表示，将很快对半导体征收关税。特朗普表示，将美国制造产品的税率降低至15%；将考虑对药品、钢铁、铝、铜征收关税。摆脱关税的唯一办法是在美国建厂。与此同时，美国财长贝森特正在推动起点为2.5%并逐步提高的新关税普征计划。受此影响，并叠加DeepSeek冲击。今天早盘，日本股市继续大幅杀跌，软银跌幅一度达5%，东京电子跌超5%。与此同时，汇市也于今天早上大幅震荡，美元兑日元和美元兑人民币皆大幅走高，美元指数亦开启反攻。此外，与数据中心相关的亚洲股票重挫。澳大利亚的嘉民集团（Goodman Group）一度跌8.4%，NEXTDC跌9.3%，HMC Capital跌6.7%，DigiCo REIT跌14%。日本上市的英伟达测试机供应商Advantest一度下跌10%，迪斯科跌9.4%，古河电工跌8.5%，藤仓跌9.2%。马来西亚YTL 电力国际股价一度下挫9.0% ，YTL下跌5.7%， IJM Corp.跌6.6%，Gamuda跌2.7%， Sunway跌3.3%。特朗普动手北京时间今天早上，外媒传来消息，特朗普表示，在不久的将来，对美国之外生产的芯片等产品征收关税。特朗普当地时间周一在演讲中表示：“在不久的将来，我们将对美国之外生产的计算机芯片、半导体和药品征收关税，以将这些必需品的生产转移回美国。”许多美国领先科技公司一直在从台积电采购处理器，虽然台积电在亚利桑那州建立了一家工厂，但其大部分芯片生产仍在中国台湾进行，该公司一直为苹果、英伟达、高通和AMD等客户提供服务。 特朗普在猛烈批评美国的《芯片与科学法案》时表示：“我们希望他们回来。”该法案由他的前任总统拜登签署，旨在投资超过520亿美元用于国内芯片制造业。“我们不想给他们数十亿美元，就像拜登给每个人的这个荒谬计划一样。他们已经有数十亿美元了，”特朗普说。“他们除了钱什么都没有。他们不需要钱。他们需要激励。激励就是他们不想支付25%、50%甚至100%的税。他们会用自己的钱建工厂，我们不必给他们钱。”特朗普补充道：“给了他们钱，他们却不知道要用这笔钱做什么。”去年，英特尔从《芯片与科学法案》中获得了79亿美元，这笔钱将用于扩建其在亚利桑那州、新墨西哥州、俄勒冈州和俄亥俄州的工厂，该公司正在这些地方建设一个新的芯片制造中心。即便如此，特朗普仍认为他的关税威胁将促使更多美国科技公司将芯片制造转移到美国。然而，建造一家芯片工厂需要数年时间，这意味着对美国之外生产的芯片征收任何关税都可能导致许多计算机产品价格上涨，例如英伟达的显卡、苹果电脑、手机和AMD处理器，这些产品都来自台积电工厂。另外，台积电制造的芯片通常不会直接出口到美国，而是运往其他地区，然后在那里组装成运往美国的消费电子产品。另据英国《金融时报》当地时间周一报道，特朗普挑选的财政部长贝森特一直在推动对美国进口产品征收新的普遍关税，起始税率为2.5%，并每月以相同的幅度逐步上调。双重冲击今早，日本股市动荡，东京电子一度崩跌超5%，软银续跌5%。日经指数一度大跌超1.3%。与此同时，日元大幅杀跌，美元指数再度飙升。 图片分析人士认为，除了特朗普的“突袭”之外，DeepSeek亦是半导体等板块巨震的重要因素。DeepSeek在没有投入同样数额的资金的情况下在人工智能方面取得进展，导致美股AI板块大幅杀估值，并有可能冲击美国上周推出的由OpenAI、甲骨文和软银共同投资的5000亿美元人工智能项目。日本上市的英伟达测试机供应商Advantest股价一度下跌超10%。 图片比较有意思的是特朗普的态度。他于当地时间周一在迈阿密对众议院共和党人发表讲话时表示，关于DeepSeek的消息是“积极的”，因为“你不需要花费太多，就能得到同样的结果”。特朗普表示，这也是“对我们行业的一个警钟，我们需要全神贯注于竞争才能取胜。”昨晚大跌近17%之后，英伟达亦表示，DeepSeek是一项卓越的人工智能进展，也是测试时扩展的绝佳范例。DeepSeek的研究展示了如何运用该技术，借助广泛可用的模型以及完全符合出口管制规定的算力，创建新模型。推理过程需要大量英伟达GPU和高性能网络。如今英伟达有三条扩展定律：持续适用的预训练和后训练定律，以及新的测试时扩展定律。美股盘后，英伟达股价一度涨超3%，但随后仍有所回落。DeepSeek的冲击波可能仍未结束。人工智能社区HuggingFace显示，DeepSeek刚刚发布了开源多模态人工智能模型Janus-Pro。其中Janus-Pro-7B在GenEval和DPG-Bench基准测试中击败了OpenAl的DALL-E3和StableDiffusion。资料显示，Janus-Pro是DeepSeek最新升级的多模态大模型，不仅能生成图像，也能对图片进行描述、识别图像中的文字、知名景点，并对图片内容进行解读；目前该模型已经开放下载，70亿和15亿的参数量，意味着普通消费级电脑也能跑得动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396802225595008,"gmtCreate":1737897782229,"gmtModify":1737897783784,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396802225595008","repostId":"1161961252","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161961252","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737873715,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161961252?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-01-26 14:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"全球掀DeepSeek复现狂潮！硅谷巨头神话崩塌，30刀见证啊哈时刻","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161961252","media":"新智元","summary":"就在这当口，全球复现DeepSeek的一波狂潮也来了。更令人兴奋的是，成本不到30美金，就可以亲眼见证「啊哈」时刻。7B模型复刻，结果令人惊讶港科大助理教授何俊贤的团队，只用了8K个样本，就在7B模型上复刻出了DeepSeek-R1-Zero和DeepSeek-R1的训练。与DeepSeek R1类似，研究者的强化学习方案极其简单，没有使用奖励模型或MCTS类技术。随后，生成长度开始再次增加，此时出现了自我反思机制。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>这些天，硅谷彻底处于中国公司带来的大地震余波中。</p><p>全美都在恐慌：是否全球人工智能的中心已经转移到了中国？</p><p>就在这当口，全球复现DeepSeek的一波狂潮也来了。</p><p>诚如LeCun所言：「这一次，正是开源对闭源的胜利！」</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96443f59328eead1fb03ccf0f6e8b4a7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><blockquote><p>在没有顶级芯片的情况下，以极低成本芯片训出突破性模型的DeepSeek，或将威胁到美国的AI霸权。</p><p>大模型比拼的不再是动辄千万亿美元的算力战。</p><p>OpenAI、Meta、谷歌这些大公司引以为傲的技术优势和高估值将会瓦解，英伟达的股价将开始动摇。</p></blockquote><p>种种这些观点和讨论，让人不禁怀疑：数百亿美元支出，对这个行业真的必要吗？甚至有人说，中国量化基金的一群天才，将导致纳斯达克崩盘。</p><p>从此，大模型时代很可能会进入一个分水岭：超强性能的模型不再独属于算力巨头，而是属于每个人。</p><h2 id=\"id_1782456954\">30美金，就能看到「啊哈」时刻</h2><p>来自UC伯克利博士生潘家怡和另两位研究人员，在CountDown游戏中复现了DeepSeek R1-Zero。</p><p>他们表示，结果相当出色！</p><p>实验中，团队验证了通过强化学习RL，3B的基础语言模型也能够自我验证和搜索。</p><p>更令人兴奋的是，成本不到30美金（约217元），就可以亲眼见证「啊哈」时刻。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5c66f649972cc1dcc1b64ac9e2312a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"468\"/></p><p>这个项目叫做TinyZero，采用了R1-Zero算法——给定一个基础语言模型、提示和真实奖励信号，运行强化学习。</p><p>然后，团队将其应用在CountDown游戏中（这是一个玩家使用基础算术运算，将数字组合以达到目标数字的游戏）。</p><p>模型从最初的简单输出开始，逐步进化出自我纠正和搜索的策略。</p><p>在以下示例中，模型提出了解决方案，自我验证，并反复纠正，直到解决问题为止。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdc1973cccfff685657e93776b421a6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"645\"/></p><p>在消融实验中，研究人员运行了Qwen-2.5-Base（0.5B、1.5B、3B、7B四种参数规模）。</p><p>结果发现，0.5B模型仅仅是猜测一个解决方案然后停止。而从1.5B开始，模型学会了搜索、自我验证和修正其解决方案，从而能够获得更高的分数。</p><p>他们认为，在这个过程，基础模型的是性能的关键。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5bf9a119224a98c43e0746453632356\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"872\"/></p><p>他们还验证了，额外的指令微调（SFT）并非是必要的，这也印证了R1-Zero的设计决策。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1a78e6cf55328c051693886f074ca0\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"352\"/></p><p>这是首个验证LLM推理能力的实现可以纯粹通过RL，无需监督微调的开源研究</p><p>基础模型和指令模型两者区别：</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p>指令模型运行速度快，但最终表现与基础模型相当</p></li><li><p>指令输出的模型更具结构性和可读性</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f32389410d6e5ede00b75380edf87e07\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"891\"/></p><p>此外，他们还发现，具体的RL算法并不重要。PPO、GRPO、PRIME这些算法中，长思维链（Long CoT）都能够涌现，且带来不错的性能表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/617d02e3d20394695f5f569d5f74c0d8\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1128\"/></p><p>而且，模型在推理行为中非常依赖于具体的任务：</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p>对于Countdow任务，模型学习进行搜索和自我验证</p></li><li><p>对于数字乘法任务，模型反而学习使用分布规则分解问题，并逐步解决</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96b4239d735ae442de73323b5bd4c965\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"643\"/></p><p>苹果机器学习科学家Yizhe Zhang对此表示，太酷了，小到1.5B的模型，也能通过RL涌现出自我验证的能力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f01a77c2fff63fd05ba3d19af0bfeab\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3291092331\">7B模型复刻，结果令人惊讶</h2><p>港科大助理教授何俊贤的团队（共同一作黄裕振、Weihao Zeng），只用了8K个样本，就在7B模型上复刻出了DeepSeek-R1-Zero和DeepSeek-R1的训练。</p><p>结果令人惊喜——模型在复杂的数学推理上取得了十分强劲结果。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51085fb73be2a72ee23054c18e6df557\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"185\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a612e8c7859f8429ee06ebe37234bb\" alt=\"项目地址：https://github.com/hkust-nlp/simpleRL-reason\" title=\"项目地址：https://github.com/hkust-nlp/simpleRL-reason\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"492\"/><span>项目地址：https://github.com/hkust-nlp/simpleRL-reason</span></p><p>他们以Qwen2.5-Math-7B（基础模型）为起点，直接对其进行强化学习。</p><p>整个过程中，没有进行监督微调（SFT），也没有使用奖励模型。</p><p>最终，模型在AIME基准上实现了33.3%的准确率，在AMC上为62.5%，在MATH上为77.2%。</p><p>这一表现不仅超越了Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct，并且还可以和使用超过50倍数据量和更复杂组件的PRIME和rStar-MATH相媲美！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc28abafaf1b99ce393cf71fc2cfb483\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00ddd59c6d8b6ab3b8d2cf89524b23c4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\"/></p><p>其中，Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL-Zero是在Qwen2.5-Math-7B基础模型上仅使用纯PPO方法训练的，仅采用了MATH数据集中的8K样本。</p><p>Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL则首先通过Long CoT监督微调（SFT）作为冷启动，然后再进行强化学习。</p><p>在这两种方法中，团队都只使用了相同的8K MATH样本，仅此而已。</p><p>大概在第44步的时候，「啊哈时刻」出现了！模型的响应中，出现了自我反思。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3aa0b8e2d94bdc891f49c30a47aa475\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p>并且，在这个过程中，模型还显现了更长的CoT推理能力和自我反思能力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3320ec58f4e229808d3520653e70da3d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"/></p><p>在博客中，研究者详细剖析了实验设置，以及在这个强化学习训练过程中所观察到的现象，例如长链式思考（CoT）和自我反思机制的自发形成。</p><p>与DeepSeek R1类似，研究者的强化学习方案极其简单，没有使用奖励模型或MCTS（蒙特卡洛树搜索）类技术。</p><p>他们使用的是PPO算法，并采用基于规则的奖励函数，根据生成输出的格式和正确性分配奖励：</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p>如果输出以指定格式提供最终答案且正确，获得+1的奖励</p></li><li><p>如果输出提供最终答案但不正确，奖励设为-0.5</p></li><li><p>如果输出未能提供最终答案，奖励设为-1</p></li></ul><p>该实现基于OpenRLHF。初步试验表明，这个奖励函数有助于策略模型快速收敛，产生符合期望格式的输出。</p><h3 id=\"id_1461976375\" style=\"text-align: center;\">第一部分：SimpleRL-Zero（从头开始的强化学习）</h3><p>接下来，研究者为我们分享了训练过程动态分析和一些有趣的涌现模式。</p><h4 id=\"id_606216327\">训练过程动态分析</h4><p>如下所示，所有基准测试的准确率在训练过程中都在稳步提高，而输出长度则呈现先减少后逐渐增加的趋势。</p><p>经过进一步调查，研究者发现，Qwen2.5-Math-7B基础模型在初始阶段倾向于生成大量代码，这可能源于模型原始训练数据的分布特征。</p><p>输出长度的首次下降，是因为强化学习训练逐渐消除了这种代码生成模式，转而学会使用自然语言进行推理。</p><p>随后，生成长度开始再次增加，此时出现了自我反思机制。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617c450f7e378da91201c2612d6b7dc\" alt=\"训练奖励和输出长度\" title=\"训练奖励和输出长度\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"432\"/><span>训练奖励和输出长度</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ef982da18a27da8c6263d647691fa7\" alt=\"基准测试准确率（pass@1）和输出长度\" title=\"基准测试准确率（pass@1）和输出长度\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"924\"/><span>基准测试准确率（pass@1）和输出长度</span></p><h4 id=\"id_224279804\">自我反思机制的涌现</h4><p>在训练到第 40 步左右时，研究者观察到：模型开始形成自我反思模式，这正是DeepSeek-R1论文中所描述的「aha moment」（顿悟时刻）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60580dff773b0a70b356c7267119e819\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"423\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_2889548553\" style=\"text-align: center;\">第二部分：SimpleRL（基于模仿预热的强化学习）</h3><p>如前所述，研究者在进行强化学习之前，先进行了long CoT SFT预热，使用了8,000个从QwQ-32B-Preview中提取的MATH示例响应作为SFT数据集。</p><p>这种冷启动的潜在优势在于：模型在开始强化学习时已具备long CoT思维模式和自我反思能力，从而可能在强化学习阶段实现更快更好的学习效果。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c761a6c0f0b865f5c1645cc06ad9869e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><p>与RL训练前的模型（Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Base + 8K QwQ知识蒸馏版本）相比，Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL的平均性能显著提升了6.9个百分点。</p><p>此外，Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL不仅持续优于Eurus-2-7B-PRIME，还在5个基准测试中的3个上超越了Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL-Zero。</p><h3 id=\"id_1405061093\">训练过程分析</h3><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ca73d0446fd6af825ac840bba4c7b14\" alt=\"训练奖励和输出长度\" title=\"训练奖励和输出长度\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>训练奖励和输出长度</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07444422d9115a8382ed0f8843badb5f\" alt=\"基准测试准确率（pass@1）和输出长度\" title=\"基准测试准确率（pass@1）和输出长度\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"638\"/><span>基准测试准确率（pass@1）和输出长度</span></p><p>Qwen2.5-SimpleRL的训练动态表现与Qwen2.5-SimpleRL-Zero相似。</p><p>有趣的是，尽管研究者先进行了long CoT SFT，但在强化学习初期仍然观察到输出长度减少的现象。</p><p>他们推测，这可能是因为从QwQ提取的推理模式不适合小型策略模型，或超出了其能力范围。</p><p>因此，模型选择放弃这种模式，转而自主发展新的长链式推理方式。</p><p>最后，研究者用达芬奇的一句话，对这项研究做了总结——</p><p>简约，便是最终极的精致。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0031e63d9296afb7d700bb6315dbce70\" alt=\"图片\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"437\" tg-height=\"72\"/><span>图片</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2367102810\">完全开源复刻，HuggingFace下场了</h2><p>甚至，就连全球最大开源平台HuggingFace团队，今天官宣复刻DeepSeek R1所有pipeline。</p><p>复刻完成后，所有的训练数据、训练脚本等等，将全部开源。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b6a0735cb87c3f66a56724b33c3f08c\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"436\"/></p><p>这个项目叫做Open R1，当前还在进行中。发布到一天，星标冲破1.9k，斩获142个fork。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/883546a6427f0ae894da543e70c593aa\" alt=\"项目地址：https://github.com/huggingface/open-r1\" title=\"项目地址：https://github.com/huggingface/open-r1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\"/><span>项目地址：https://github.com/huggingface/open-r1</span></p><p>研究团队以DeepSeek-R1技术报告为指导，将整个复刻过程划分为三个关键步骤。</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p><strong>步骤 1：</strong>通过从DeepSeek-R1蒸馏高质量语料库，复现R1-Distill模型。</p></li><li><p><strong>步骤 2：</strong>复现DeepSeek用于创建R1-Zero的纯强化学习（RL）流程。这可能需要为数学、推理和代码任务策划新的大规模数据集。</p></li><li><p><strong>步骤 3：</strong>展示我们如何通过多阶段训练，从基础模型发展到经过RL调优的模型。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b5e37647b6df05c2e00fdcae31c20a1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1238\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1672370884\">从斯坦福到MIT，R1成为首选</h2><p>一个副业项目，让全世界科技大厂为之惶恐。</p><p>DeepSeek这波成功，也成为业界的神话，网友最新截图显示，这款应用已经在APP Store「效率」应用榜单中挤进前三。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26a66723d3b3a6b69f68a1478db0112\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"1200\"/></p><p>在Hugging Face中，R1下载量直接登顶，另外3个模型也霸占着热榜。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a17a15963d44d09684758a53d9f16d6e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p>a16z合伙人Anjney Midha称，一夜之间，从斯坦福到MIT，DeepSeek R1已经成为美国顶尖高校研究人员「首选模型」。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d7a12d8352525e938ddde62a68ba77\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"237\"/></p><p>还有研究人员表示，DeepSeek基本上取代了我用ChatGPT的需求。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aef5ecd49dffdc200d6f1bd7a0647528\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>中国AI，这一次真的震撼了世界。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球掀DeepSeek复现狂潮！硅谷巨头神话崩塌，30刀见证啊哈时刻</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球掀DeepSeek复现狂潮！硅谷巨头神话崩塌，30刀见证啊哈时刻\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-26 14:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/o41vPh9eJCVjCRUE4u5npA><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这些天，硅谷彻底处于中国公司带来的大地震余波中。全美都在恐慌：是否全球人工智能的中心已经转移到了中国？就在这当口，全球复现DeepSeek的一波狂潮也来了。诚如LeCun所言：「这一次，正是开源对闭源的胜利！」在没有顶级芯片的情况下，以极低成本芯片训出突破性模型的DeepSeek，或将威胁到美国的AI霸权。大模型比拼的不再是动辄千万亿美元的算力战。OpenAI、Meta、谷歌这些大公司引以为傲的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/o41vPh9eJCVjCRUE4u5npA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4abae3de7bed37b48c01721c28c51931","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/o41vPh9eJCVjCRUE4u5npA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161961252","content_text":"这些天，硅谷彻底处于中国公司带来的大地震余波中。全美都在恐慌：是否全球人工智能的中心已经转移到了中国？就在这当口，全球复现DeepSeek的一波狂潮也来了。诚如LeCun所言：「这一次，正是开源对闭源的胜利！」在没有顶级芯片的情况下，以极低成本芯片训出突破性模型的DeepSeek，或将威胁到美国的AI霸权。大模型比拼的不再是动辄千万亿美元的算力战。OpenAI、Meta、谷歌这些大公司引以为傲的技术优势和高估值将会瓦解，英伟达的股价将开始动摇。种种这些观点和讨论，让人不禁怀疑：数百亿美元支出，对这个行业真的必要吗？甚至有人说，中国量化基金的一群天才，将导致纳斯达克崩盘。从此，大模型时代很可能会进入一个分水岭：超强性能的模型不再独属于算力巨头，而是属于每个人。30美金，就能看到「啊哈」时刻来自UC伯克利博士生潘家怡和另两位研究人员，在CountDown游戏中复现了DeepSeek R1-Zero。他们表示，结果相当出色！实验中，团队验证了通过强化学习RL，3B的基础语言模型也能够自我验证和搜索。更令人兴奋的是，成本不到30美金（约217元），就可以亲眼见证「啊哈」时刻。这个项目叫做TinyZero，采用了R1-Zero算法——给定一个基础语言模型、提示和真实奖励信号，运行强化学习。然后，团队将其应用在CountDown游戏中（这是一个玩家使用基础算术运算，将数字组合以达到目标数字的游戏）。模型从最初的简单输出开始，逐步进化出自我纠正和搜索的策略。在以下示例中，模型提出了解决方案，自我验证，并反复纠正，直到解决问题为止。在消融实验中，研究人员运行了Qwen-2.5-Base（0.5B、1.5B、3B、7B四种参数规模）。结果发现，0.5B模型仅仅是猜测一个解决方案然后停止。而从1.5B开始，模型学会了搜索、自我验证和修正其解决方案，从而能够获得更高的分数。他们认为，在这个过程，基础模型的是性能的关键。他们还验证了，额外的指令微调（SFT）并非是必要的，这也印证了R1-Zero的设计决策。这是首个验证LLM推理能力的实现可以纯粹通过RL，无需监督微调的开源研究基础模型和指令模型两者区别：指令模型运行速度快，但最终表现与基础模型相当指令输出的模型更具结构性和可读性此外，他们还发现，具体的RL算法并不重要。PPO、GRPO、PRIME这些算法中，长思维链（Long CoT）都能够涌现，且带来不错的性能表现。而且，模型在推理行为中非常依赖于具体的任务：对于Countdow任务，模型学习进行搜索和自我验证对于数字乘法任务，模型反而学习使用分布规则分解问题，并逐步解决苹果机器学习科学家Yizhe Zhang对此表示，太酷了，小到1.5B的模型，也能通过RL涌现出自我验证的能力。7B模型复刻，结果令人惊讶港科大助理教授何俊贤的团队（共同一作黄裕振、Weihao Zeng），只用了8K个样本，就在7B模型上复刻出了DeepSeek-R1-Zero和DeepSeek-R1的训练。结果令人惊喜——模型在复杂的数学推理上取得了十分强劲结果。项目地址：https://github.com/hkust-nlp/simpleRL-reason他们以Qwen2.5-Math-7B（基础模型）为起点，直接对其进行强化学习。整个过程中，没有进行监督微调（SFT），也没有使用奖励模型。最终，模型在AIME基准上实现了33.3%的准确率，在AMC上为62.5%，在MATH上为77.2%。这一表现不仅超越了Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct，并且还可以和使用超过50倍数据量和更复杂组件的PRIME和rStar-MATH相媲美！其中，Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL-Zero是在Qwen2.5-Math-7B基础模型上仅使用纯PPO方法训练的，仅采用了MATH数据集中的8K样本。Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL则首先通过Long CoT监督微调（SFT）作为冷启动，然后再进行强化学习。在这两种方法中，团队都只使用了相同的8K MATH样本，仅此而已。大概在第44步的时候，「啊哈时刻」出现了！模型的响应中，出现了自我反思。并且，在这个过程中，模型还显现了更长的CoT推理能力和自我反思能力。在博客中，研究者详细剖析了实验设置，以及在这个强化学习训练过程中所观察到的现象，例如长链式思考（CoT）和自我反思机制的自发形成。与DeepSeek R1类似，研究者的强化学习方案极其简单，没有使用奖励模型或MCTS（蒙特卡洛树搜索）类技术。他们使用的是PPO算法，并采用基于规则的奖励函数，根据生成输出的格式和正确性分配奖励：如果输出以指定格式提供最终答案且正确，获得+1的奖励如果输出提供最终答案但不正确，奖励设为-0.5如果输出未能提供最终答案，奖励设为-1该实现基于OpenRLHF。初步试验表明，这个奖励函数有助于策略模型快速收敛，产生符合期望格式的输出。第一部分：SimpleRL-Zero（从头开始的强化学习）接下来，研究者为我们分享了训练过程动态分析和一些有趣的涌现模式。训练过程动态分析如下所示，所有基准测试的准确率在训练过程中都在稳步提高，而输出长度则呈现先减少后逐渐增加的趋势。经过进一步调查，研究者发现，Qwen2.5-Math-7B基础模型在初始阶段倾向于生成大量代码，这可能源于模型原始训练数据的分布特征。输出长度的首次下降，是因为强化学习训练逐渐消除了这种代码生成模式，转而学会使用自然语言进行推理。随后，生成长度开始再次增加，此时出现了自我反思机制。训练奖励和输出长度基准测试准确率（pass@1）和输出长度自我反思机制的涌现在训练到第 40 步左右时，研究者观察到：模型开始形成自我反思模式，这正是DeepSeek-R1论文中所描述的「aha moment」（顿悟时刻）。第二部分：SimpleRL（基于模仿预热的强化学习）如前所述，研究者在进行强化学习之前，先进行了long CoT SFT预热，使用了8,000个从QwQ-32B-Preview中提取的MATH示例响应作为SFT数据集。这种冷启动的潜在优势在于：模型在开始强化学习时已具备long CoT思维模式和自我反思能力，从而可能在强化学习阶段实现更快更好的学习效果。与RL训练前的模型（Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Base + 8K QwQ知识蒸馏版本）相比，Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL的平均性能显著提升了6.9个百分点。此外，Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL不仅持续优于Eurus-2-7B-PRIME，还在5个基准测试中的3个上超越了Qwen2.5-7B-SimpleRL-Zero。训练过程分析训练奖励和输出长度基准测试准确率（pass@1）和输出长度Qwen2.5-SimpleRL的训练动态表现与Qwen2.5-SimpleRL-Zero相似。有趣的是，尽管研究者先进行了long CoT SFT，但在强化学习初期仍然观察到输出长度减少的现象。他们推测，这可能是因为从QwQ提取的推理模式不适合小型策略模型，或超出了其能力范围。因此，模型选择放弃这种模式，转而自主发展新的长链式推理方式。最后，研究者用达芬奇的一句话，对这项研究做了总结——简约，便是最终极的精致。图片完全开源复刻，HuggingFace下场了甚至，就连全球最大开源平台HuggingFace团队，今天官宣复刻DeepSeek R1所有pipeline。复刻完成后，所有的训练数据、训练脚本等等，将全部开源。这个项目叫做Open R1，当前还在进行中。发布到一天，星标冲破1.9k，斩获142个fork。项目地址：https://github.com/huggingface/open-r1研究团队以DeepSeek-R1技术报告为指导，将整个复刻过程划分为三个关键步骤。步骤 1：通过从DeepSeek-R1蒸馏高质量语料库，复现R1-Distill模型。步骤 2：复现DeepSeek用于创建R1-Zero的纯强化学习（RL）流程。这可能需要为数学、推理和代码任务策划新的大规模数据集。步骤 3：展示我们如何通过多阶段训练，从基础模型发展到经过RL调优的模型。从斯坦福到MIT，R1成为首选一个副业项目，让全世界科技大厂为之惶恐。DeepSeek这波成功，也成为业界的神话，网友最新截图显示，这款应用已经在APP Store「效率」应用榜单中挤进前三。在Hugging Face中，R1下载量直接登顶，另外3个模型也霸占着热榜。a16z合伙人Anjney Midha称，一夜之间，从斯坦福到MIT，DeepSeek R1已经成为美国顶尖高校研究人员「首选模型」。还有研究人员表示，DeepSeek基本上取代了我用ChatGPT的需求。中国AI，这一次真的震撼了世界。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":309306875629600,"gmtCreate":1716538910764,"gmtModify":1716538912034,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$&nbsp;</a>陆陆续续分几笔买了一年了，何时能轮到你呢？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$&nbsp;</a>陆陆续续分几笔买了一年了，何时能轮到你呢？","text":"$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 陆陆续续分几笔买了一年了，何时能轮到你呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309306875629600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4166193901661162","authorId":"4166193901661162","name":"透透气","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4166193901661162","idStr":"4166193901661162"},"content":"7月31日","text":"7月31日","html":"7月31日"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967617770,"gmtCreate":1584590388090,"gmtModify":1704355153592,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a>好想卖房入市，怕老婆不同意","text":"$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$好想卖房入市，怕老婆不同意","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967617770","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3525672317736316","authorId":"3525672317736316","name":"kdb德布劳内","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1ef8a1c008772070322fec5bf8481f3","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3525672317736316","idStr":"3525672317736316"},"content":"兄弟别冲动，不然后悔遇一辈子","text":"兄弟别冲动，不然后悔遇一辈子","html":"兄弟别冲动，不然后悔遇一辈子"},{"author":{"id":"3520001708802129","authorId":"3520001708802129","name":"BKK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39a38b999ab97ee67793fefaa14bb4de","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3520001708802129","idStr":"3520001708802129"},"content":"好想卖房入市，就是房东不同意","text":"好想卖房入市，就是房东不同意","html":"好想卖房入市，就是房东不同意"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":295648110530840,"gmtCreate":1713188678901,"gmtModify":1713188681004,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$&nbsp;</a>建仓的太早了，唉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$&nbsp;</a>建仓的太早了，唉","text":"$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 建仓的太早了，唉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/295648110530840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4109775125456630","authorId":"4109775125456630","name":"DA6","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e84c629b8b0b0ce1cfadadf6e6d70808","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4109775125456630","idStr":"4109775125456630"},"content":"55买的吗？","text":"55买的吗？","html":"55买的吗？"},{"author":{"id":"3499295903547472","authorId":"3499295903547472","name":"BoysBeSmile","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2852100dad571b7e3b6c123bdb3adc84","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3499295903547472","idStr":"3499295903547472"},"content":"是太早了[流泪]","text":"是太早了[流泪]","html":"是太早了[流泪]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367831691063480,"gmtCreate":1730820407245,"gmtModify":1730820473901,"author":{"id":"3462242473116216","authorId":"3462242473116216","name":"葡萄基金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1011b296ea7c5dd75b2ba181620ed957","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462242473116216","idStr":"3462242473116216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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