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寻找未被市场了解的价值股

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

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寻找未被市场了解的价值股

01-22 07:57

$ASTRAL RESOURCES NL(AAR.AU)$ 产能为10万盎司每年

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

01-20

$DRONESHIELD LTD(DRO.AU)$ 反无人机公司，股价波动大

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

01-17

$Chesapeake Gold Corp.(CHPGF)$ 储量大，品位低，矿权有纠纷！

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

01-15

$EnviroGold Global Limited(ESGLF)$ 这是个采矿技术服务公司

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

01-13

$AUSTRAL GOLD LTD(AGD.AU)$ 雪球有球友推荐这个股，我还没研究，大家有什么见解可以发表一下！

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

01-02

这么多好东西，得慢慢研究看看哪个更好

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Fall Amid Year-End Slowdown; Gold, Silver Miners' Stocks in Focus as Prices Hit Record Highs<blockquote>澳大利亚证券交易所前瞻：澳大利亚股市将在年底放缓中下跌；随着价格创下历史新高，黄金和白银矿商的股票成为焦点</blockquote>

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-12-23

2026.1.8起商品基金会重新调整持仓权重，要被动卖出因涨太多而导致的仓位！买进因下跌权重降低的其他商品仓位$紫金矿业(02899)$ $山东黄金(01787)$ $招金矿业(01818)$

疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-11-06

$B2Gold(BTG)$ 在马里存在着许多政治风险，估值就是低，所以不要重仓操作！

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-10-18

$Steppe Gold Limited(STPGF)$ 关键在于未来几年的扩产至14万盎司，看能否顺利实现

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-09-28

$TANAMI GOLD NL(TAM.AU)$ 亚太资源是大股东

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-09-26

$SUNRISE ENERGY METALS LTD(SRL.AU)$ 稀土矿太猛啦

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-09-19

$ALKANE RESOURCES LTD(ALK.AU)$ 尾盘是指数基金买的吧？！

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-09-12

$AURUM RESOURCES LIMITED(AUE.AU)$ 招金是大股东

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-09-12

$LOCKSLEY RESOURCES LTD(LKY.AU)$ 锑矿是稀土之一，价格波动大

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-07-29

京东全面布局衣食住行各环节的服务

资本丨抢占香港餐桌，京东40亿港元收购佳宝

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-03-04

$久泰邦达能源(02798)$ 2019/2020年都有盈利每年二个亿左右，今年煤价还比2020年高，难道今年就要亏损了？股价这么跌

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-03-03

$扬子江船业(BS6.SI)$ 是美国拟出台中国造的船只停靠美国码头每条船收一百万美元的政策影响而下跌？

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2025-02-27

$Acm Research Inc.(ACMR)$ 这股波动很大，经常几个月时间就腰斩或者翻倍，十分适合做交易！

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2024-06-17

这么多大牛股

台积电的日本供应商，大涨1000%

寻找未被市场了解的价值股

2024-05-31

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 下跌是被赛富时的财报所带动$赛富时(CRM)$

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反无人机公司，股价波动大","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DRO.AU\">$DRONESHIELD LTD(DRO.AU)$&nbsp;</a> 反无人机公司，股价波动大","text":"$DRONESHIELD LTD(DRO.AU)$ 反无人机公司，股价波动大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/523594741867904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":522468197249480,"gmtCreate":1768579203368,"gmtModify":1768579206531,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPGF\">$Chesapeake Gold Corp.(CHPGF)$</a> 储量大，品位低，矿权有纠纷！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPGF\">$Chesapeake Gold Corp.(CHPGF)$</a> 储量大，品位低，矿权有纠纷！","text":"$Chesapeake Gold Corp.(CHPGF)$ 储量大，品位低，矿权有纠纷！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/522468197249480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521842125967680,"gmtCreate":1768438820855,"gmtModify":1768438823058,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESGLF\">$EnviroGold Global Limited(ESGLF)$</a> 这是个采矿技术服务公司","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESGLF\">$EnviroGold Global Limited(ESGLF)$</a> 这是个采矿技术服务公司","text":"$EnviroGold Global Limited(ESGLF)$ 这是个采矿技术服务公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521842125967680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521035144520464,"gmtCreate":1768234550051,"gmtModify":1768235319190,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGD.AU\">$AUSTRAL GOLD LTD(AGD.AU)$</a> 雪球有球友推荐这个股，我还没研究，大家有什么见解可以发表一下！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGD.AU\">$AUSTRAL GOLD LTD(AGD.AU)$</a> 雪球有球友推荐这个股，我还没研究，大家有什么见解可以发表一下！","text":"$AUSTRAL GOLD LTD(AGD.AU)$ 雪球有球友推荐这个股，我还没研究，大家有什么见解可以发表一下！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521035144520464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":517262038287568,"gmtCreate":1767313963882,"gmtModify":1767313966500,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这么多好东西，得慢慢研究看看哪个更好","listText":"这么多好东西，得慢慢研究看看哪个更好","text":"这么多好东西，得慢慢研究看看哪个更好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/517262038287568","repostId":"2595682274","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2595682274","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The most recognized names in North America, Europe and Asia rely on MT Newswires to power their applications. Better news, better service, better price.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"MT Newswires Live","id":"1092851196","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e"},"pubTimestamp":1766964486,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2595682274?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-29 07:28","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Fall Amid Year-End Slowdown; Gold, Silver Miners' Stocks in Focus as Prices Hit Record Highs<blockquote>澳大利亚证券交易所前瞻：澳大利亚股市将在年底放缓中下跌；随着价格创下历史新高，黄金和白银矿商的股票成为焦点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2595682274","media":"MT Newswires Live","summary":"Australian shares are poised to fall on Monday as year-end trading slows, after US stocks showed little movement and Asian futures pointed lower despite record-setting rallies in global equities and precious metals.On Dec. 26, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.03%, 0.1%, and 0.04%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, the final S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index report is scheduled for release on Friday.In corporate news, Newmont , Northern Star Resources , and Evolution Mining  are in focus as bullion hits record highs due to safe-haven demand.Andean Silver  and Sun Silver  are also drawing attention as silver prices surge to record levels amid a market deficit.Australia's benchmark index fell 0.4% or 33 points to close at 8,762.70 on Dec. 24.","content":"<p><html><body> Australian shares are poised to fall on Monday as year-end trading slows, after US stocks showed little movement and Asian futures pointed lower despite record-setting rallies in global equities and precious metals.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>随着年终交易放缓，澳大利亚股市周一可能下跌，此前尽管全球股市和贵金属创纪录上涨，但美国股市几乎没有波动，亚洲期货走低。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>On Dec. 26, the S&amp;P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.03%, 0.1%, and 0.04%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>12月26日，标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别下跌0.03%、0.1%和0.04%。</blockquote></p><p>In the macroeconomy, the final S&amp;P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index report is scheduled for release on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>宏观经济方面，标普全球制造业采购经理人指数最终报告定于周五发布。</blockquote></p><p>In corporate news, Newmont (ASX:NEM), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STIC.U\">Northern Star</a> Resources (ASX:NST), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVN.AU\">Evolution Mining</a> (ASX:EVN) are in focus as bullion hits record highs due to safe-haven demand.</p><p><blockquote>企业新闻方面，纽蒙特(ASX：NEM)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STIC.U\">北极星</a>资源（ASX：NST），以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVN.AU\">进化挖掘</a>由于避险需求，金价创下历史新高，(ASX：EVN)成为焦点。</blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASL.AU\">Andean Silver</a> (ASX:ASL) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SS1.AU\">Sun Silver</a> (ASX:SS1) are also drawing attention as silver prices surge to record levels amid a market deficit.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASL.AU\">安第斯银</a>（ASX：ASL）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SS1.AU\">太阳银</a>(ASX：SS1)也引起了人们的关注，因为白银价格在市场赤字的情况下飙升至创纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p>Australia's benchmark index fell 0.4% or 33 points to close at 8,762.70 on Dec. 24.</p><p><blockquote>12月24日，澳大利亚基准指数下跌0.4%或33点，收于8,762.70点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"mtnewswires_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Fall Amid Year-End Slowdown; Gold, Silver Miners' Stocks in Focus as Prices Hit Record Highs<blockquote>澳大利亚证券交易所前瞻：澳大利亚股市将在年底放缓中下跌；随着价格创下历史新高，黄金和白银矿商的股票成为焦点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Fall Amid Year-End Slowdown; Gold, Silver Miners' Stocks in Focus as Prices Hit Record Highs<blockquote>澳大利亚证券交易所前瞻：澳大利亚股市将在年底放缓中下跌；随着价格创下历史新高，黄金和白银矿商的股票成为焦点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1092851196\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3002d84abbd5ace3c99397c7f95b8d4e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">MT Newswires Live </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2025-12-29 07:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body> Australian shares are poised to fall on Monday as year-end trading slows, after US stocks showed little movement and Asian futures pointed lower despite record-setting rallies in global equities and precious metals.</p><p><blockquote><html><body>随着年终交易放缓，澳大利亚股市周一可能下跌，此前尽管全球股市和贵金属创纪录上涨，但美国股市几乎没有波动，亚洲期货走低。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>On Dec. 26, the S&amp;P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.03%, 0.1%, and 0.04%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>12月26日，标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别下跌0.03%、0.1%和0.04%。</blockquote></p><p>In the macroeconomy, the final S&amp;P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index report is scheduled for release on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>宏观经济方面，标普全球制造业采购经理人指数最终报告定于周五发布。</blockquote></p><p>In corporate news, Newmont (ASX:NEM), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STIC.U\">Northern Star</a> Resources (ASX:NST), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVN.AU\">Evolution Mining</a> (ASX:EVN) are in focus as bullion hits record highs due to safe-haven demand.</p><p><blockquote>企业新闻方面，纽蒙特(ASX：NEM)，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STIC.U\">北极星</a>资源（ASX：NST），以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVN.AU\">进化挖掘</a>由于避险需求，金价创下历史新高，(ASX：EVN)成为焦点。</blockquote></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASL.AU\">Andean Silver</a> (ASX:ASL) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SS1.AU\">Sun Silver</a> (ASX:SS1) are also drawing attention as silver prices surge to record levels amid a market deficit.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASL.AU\">安第斯银</a>（ASX：ASL）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SS1.AU\">太阳银</a>(ASX：SS1)也引起了人们的关注，因为白银价格在市场赤字的情况下飙升至创纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p>Australia's benchmark index fell 0.4% or 33 points to close at 8,762.70 on Dec. 24.</p><p><blockquote>12月24日，澳大利亚基准指数下跌0.4%或33点，收于8,762.70点。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SS1.AU":"Sun Silver Ltd","NST.AU":"NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","NEM.AU":"NEWMONT CORP-CDI","ASL.AU":"Andean Silver Ltd","BK7138":"白银","EVN.AU":"EVOLUTION MINING LTD","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK7104":"黄金","BK7506":"金矿股","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数"},"source_url":"https://www.mtnewswires.com/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2595682274","content_text":"Australian shares are poised to fall on Monday as year-end trading slows, after US stocks showed little movement and Asian futures pointed lower despite record-setting rallies in global equities and precious metals.On Dec. 26, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.03%, 0.1%, and 0.04%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, the final S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index report is scheduled for release on Friday.In corporate news, Newmont (ASX:NEM), Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), and Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) are in focus as bullion hits record highs due to safe-haven demand.Andean Silver (ASX:ASL) and Sun Silver (ASX:SS1) are also drawing attention as silver prices surge to record levels amid a market deficit.Australia's benchmark index fell 0.4% or 33 points to close at 8,762.70 on Dec. 24.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NST.AU":1,"XAO.AU":1.5,"ASL.AU":1,"XKO.AU":1.5,"SS1.AU":1,"EVN.AU":1,"XJO.AU":1.5,"NEM.AU":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":513890267766960,"gmtCreate":1766460595365,"gmtModify":1766460597302,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"2026.1.8起商品基金会重新调整持仓权重，要被动卖出因涨太多而导致的仓位！买进因下跌权重降低的其他商品仓位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02899\">$紫金矿业(02899)$&nbsp;</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01787\">$山东黄金(01787)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01818\">$招金矿业(01818)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"2026.1.8起商品基金会重新调整持仓权重，要被动卖出因涨太多而导致的仓位！买进因下跌权重降低的其他商品仓位<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02899\">$紫金矿业(02899)$&nbsp;</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01787\">$山东黄金(01787)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01818\">$招金矿业(01818)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"2026.1.8起商品基金会重新调整持仓权重，要被动卖出因涨太多而导致的仓位！买进因下跌权重降低的其他商品仓位$紫金矿业(02899)$ $山东黄金(01787)$ $招金矿业(01818)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/513890267766960","repostId":"2593946882","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2593946882","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1766459732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2593946882?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-23 11:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2593946882","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"贵金属全线飙升，金银创新高，国内铂钯双涨停，而广期所贵金属持仓激增与活跃交易或助推了此轮行情。但狂欢也伴随着风险，摩根大通警告高昂的银价正侵蚀光伏需求。同时，需高度警惕1月8日起彭博商品指数再平衡引发的技术性抛压：预计白银抛售规模占期货持仓9%，黄金占3%，这股巨量强制卖盘或打破新年季节性利好。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>贵金属全线飙升，金银创新高，国内铂钯双涨停，而广期所贵金属持仓激增与活跃交易或助推了此轮行情。但狂欢也伴随着风险，摩根大通警告高昂的银价正侵蚀光伏需求。同时，需高度警惕1月8日起彭博商品指数再平衡引发的技术性抛压：预计白银抛售规模占期货持仓9%，黄金占3%，这股巨量强制卖盘或打破新年季节性利好。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周二，现货黄金、白银均在创下新高后快速回落，盘中转跌。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/160a6390c3fc7f992dde92cc2012f63e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1155\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c87ac6dc6f2d90c86f20a825606cae7f\" tg-width=\"1161\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">贵金属市场正以一场数十年未见的狂热行情为2025年收官，但在这场由宽松预期和地缘政治风险点燃的盛宴背后，一个可预见的重大风险已悄然临近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摩根大通在最新的研究报告中发出警告，由于金银价格连续三年大幅跑赢大市，其在彭博商品指数（BCOM）中的权重已严重超标。这几乎注定了在即将到来的2026年1月指数再平衡期间，跟踪该指数的被动型基金将被迫进行大规模的“技术性抛售”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于市场而言，这意味着一场多空因素的激烈博弈即将上演。一方面是创纪录的价格、强劲的上涨势头和传统的年初季节性利好；另一方面则是一股可预见的、规模庞大的强制性卖盘。这一短期风险“近在眼前”，可能在新年伊始就给高歌猛进的贵金属市场带来剧烈波动。</p><h2 id=\"id_2112313706\" style=\"text-align: left;\">贵金属全线飙升，创数十年未见之涨幅</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">进入“圣诞周”，贵金属市场全线走高，多项品种正迈向自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据BullionVault周一发布的数据，金银价格的年度涨幅为46年来之最。截至年底仅剩几个交易日，黄金年内涨幅已接近70%，白银更是飙升近140%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8effd0458fc4f3f64feb72ecefae83\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">铂族金属同样表现惊人：铂金周一大涨5.1%至每盎司2075美元的逾16年高位，全年涨幅近130%，是自1990年有伦敦基准价以来最大年度涨幅；钯金也一度上涨4.6%至每盎司1802美元的近4年高位，全年涨幅有望超过95%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9ba8263c53f3fd2d48be7a7761fcd3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"568\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此轮上涨的宏观背景包括美元走软，以及市场对美联储2026年将降息两次的普遍预期，尽管联储官员预测仅有一次。此外，美国在委内瑞拉沿海的军事行动也为市场增添了地缘政治风险溢价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至12月9日的数据，对冲基金等投机者在Comex黄金和白银期货及期权中的净多头头寸一直保持在相对温和的水平，并未完全跟上此轮价格的迅猛涨势。</p><h2 id=\"id_200120758\" style=\"text-align: left;\">中国资金助燃铂金狂热</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在铂金的惊人涨势背后，来自中国的交易活动起到了助推作用。摩根大通在12月18日的报告中指出，铂金价格从每盎司1700美元区间跃升至1900美元以上，主要驱动力似乎是中国广州期货交易所（GFEX）“强劲的”期货交易活动和持仓量激增。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告数据显示，自11月27日广州期货交易所推出铂金和钯金期货以来，其铂金合约的日均总成交量已增至近500万盎司，近期甚至超过了纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）的成交量。同时，广州期货交易所的总未平仓合约也飙升至超过100万盎司，约为纽约商品交易所的四分之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">为应对过热的交易，广州期货交易所已于12月18日宣布，将非期货公司会员或客户的铂金和钯金合约持仓限额设定为500手。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19046fd645057d3a534b60d75022f018\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"466\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_741103284\" style=\"text-align: left;\">白银的“双刃剑”：高价侵蚀光伏需求</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于今年涨幅最为惊人的白银而言，其凌厉的涨势正成为一把双刃剑，长期需求破坏的风险日益凸显，尤其是在光伏领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer分析师团队认为，白银年内近130%的涨幅，已将其在太阳能组件总售价中的成本份额从2024年以前通常低于5%的水平，大幅推高至近20%。这严重挤压了光伏组件制造商本已“微薄”的利润空间。高昂的成本正迫使行业加速“节银”（thrifting），即通过技术手段减少银的使用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告估计，如果镀银铜浆粉和零主栅（0BB）等节银技术加速普及，未来几年可能导致多达5000万至6000万盎司的白银需求受到威胁。尽管短期内，因美国“232条款”关税不确定性导致的实物市场紧张掩盖了这一长期风险，但一旦市场紧张状况缓解，需求破坏的风险可能导致白银相对于黄金的强势表现出现“更急剧的逆转”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b39e32091d37306991ad69dd40ef81\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2871405849\" style=\"text-align: left;\">技术风暴将至：1月指数再平衡恐引发金银集中抛售</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于贵金属投资者而言，最直接的短期风险来自即将到来的重要商品指数年度再平衡。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻写道，据摩根大通在12月发布的报告警告，备受关注的彭博商品指数（BCOM）将在2026年1月8日开始进行年度权重调整。由于黄金和白银在过去三年中表现出色，其在指数中的权重已远超目标水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，<strong>追踪该指数的被动型基金（资产管理规模超600亿美元）将被迫在1月8日至14日期间集中卖出黄金和白银期货，以完成再平衡。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告对抛售规模给出了明确预测：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>白银</strong>：将面临最沉重的抛压，预计卖盘规模将占其期货市场总未平仓合约的约9%。报告特别强调，今年白银的抛售压力“比去年更为突出”。</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>黄金</strong>：预计将面临相当于其总未平仓合约约3%的卖盘。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一可预见的技术性卖盘，将与黄金年初的传统季节性强势（过去10年有8年在年初上涨）形成直接对冲。投资者需要高度警惕，这股强大的资金流出是否会打破历史规律，在新年第一周就给市场带来剧烈震荡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2027aa66c40323cb42b1269f39267fb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n疯狂的贵金属！金银一色，铂钯齐飞，短期一个大风险“近在眼前”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-23 11:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761886><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>贵金属全线飙升，金银创新高，国内铂钯双涨停，而广期所贵金属持仓激增与活跃交易或助推了此轮行情。但狂欢也伴随着风险，摩根大通警告高昂的银价正侵蚀光伏需求。同时，需高度警惕1月8日起彭博商品指数再平衡引发的技术性抛压：预计白银抛售规模占期货持仓9%，黄金占3%，这股巨量强制卖盘或打破新年季节性利好。周二，现货黄金、白银均在创下新高后快速回落，盘中转跌。贵金属市场正以一场数十年未见的狂热行情为2025年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761886\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e59b88731b8c06f5f2f331abdc0376b0","relate_stocks":{"CDE":"科尔黛伦矿业","HMY":"哈莫尼黄金","GFI":"金田"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761886","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2593946882","content_text":"贵金属全线飙升，金银创新高，国内铂钯双涨停，而广期所贵金属持仓激增与活跃交易或助推了此轮行情。但狂欢也伴随着风险，摩根大通警告高昂的银价正侵蚀光伏需求。同时，需高度警惕1月8日起彭博商品指数再平衡引发的技术性抛压：预计白银抛售规模占期货持仓9%，黄金占3%，这股巨量强制卖盘或打破新年季节性利好。周二，现货黄金、白银均在创下新高后快速回落，盘中转跌。贵金属市场正以一场数十年未见的狂热行情为2025年收官，但在这场由宽松预期和地缘政治风险点燃的盛宴背后，一个可预见的重大风险已悄然临近。摩根大通在最新的研究报告中发出警告，由于金银价格连续三年大幅跑赢大市，其在彭博商品指数（BCOM）中的权重已严重超标。这几乎注定了在即将到来的2026年1月指数再平衡期间，跟踪该指数的被动型基金将被迫进行大规模的“技术性抛售”。对于市场而言，这意味着一场多空因素的激烈博弈即将上演。一方面是创纪录的价格、强劲的上涨势头和传统的年初季节性利好；另一方面则是一股可预见的、规模庞大的强制性卖盘。这一短期风险“近在眼前”，可能在新年伊始就给高歌猛进的贵金属市场带来剧烈波动。贵金属全线飙升，创数十年未见之涨幅进入“圣诞周”，贵金属市场全线走高，多项品种正迈向自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现。根据BullionVault周一发布的数据，金银价格的年度涨幅为46年来之最。截至年底仅剩几个交易日，黄金年内涨幅已接近70%，白银更是飙升近140%。铂族金属同样表现惊人：铂金周一大涨5.1%至每盎司2075美元的逾16年高位，全年涨幅近130%，是自1990年有伦敦基准价以来最大年度涨幅；钯金也一度上涨4.6%至每盎司1802美元的近4年高位，全年涨幅有望超过95%。此轮上涨的宏观背景包括美元走软，以及市场对美联储2026年将降息两次的普遍预期，尽管联储官员预测仅有一次。此外，美国在委内瑞拉沿海的军事行动也为市场增添了地缘政治风险溢价。值得注意的是，据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至12月9日的数据，对冲基金等投机者在Comex黄金和白银期货及期权中的净多头头寸一直保持在相对温和的水平，并未完全跟上此轮价格的迅猛涨势。中国资金助燃铂金狂热在铂金的惊人涨势背后，来自中国的交易活动起到了助推作用。摩根大通在12月18日的报告中指出，铂金价格从每盎司1700美元区间跃升至1900美元以上，主要驱动力似乎是中国广州期货交易所（GFEX）“强劲的”期货交易活动和持仓量激增。报告数据显示，自11月27日广州期货交易所推出铂金和钯金期货以来，其铂金合约的日均总成交量已增至近500万盎司，近期甚至超过了纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）的成交量。同时，广州期货交易所的总未平仓合约也飙升至超过100万盎司，约为纽约商品交易所的四分之一。为应对过热的交易，广州期货交易所已于12月18日宣布，将非期货公司会员或客户的铂金和钯金合约持仓限额设定为500手。白银的“双刃剑”：高价侵蚀光伏需求对于今年涨幅最为惊人的白银而言，其凌厉的涨势正成为一把双刃剑，长期需求破坏的风险日益凸显，尤其是在光伏领域。摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer分析师团队认为，白银年内近130%的涨幅，已将其在太阳能组件总售价中的成本份额从2024年以前通常低于5%的水平，大幅推高至近20%。这严重挤压了光伏组件制造商本已“微薄”的利润空间。高昂的成本正迫使行业加速“节银”（thrifting），即通过技术手段减少银的使用。报告估计，如果镀银铜浆粉和零主栅（0BB）等节银技术加速普及，未来几年可能导致多达5000万至6000万盎司的白银需求受到威胁。尽管短期内，因美国“232条款”关税不确定性导致的实物市场紧张掩盖了这一长期风险，但一旦市场紧张状况缓解，需求破坏的风险可能导致白银相对于黄金的强势表现出现“更急剧的逆转”。技术风暴将至：1月指数再平衡恐引发金银集中抛售对于贵金属投资者而言，最直接的短期风险来自即将到来的重要商品指数年度再平衡。华尔街见闻写道，据摩根大通在12月发布的报告警告，备受关注的彭博商品指数（BCOM）将在2026年1月8日开始进行年度权重调整。由于黄金和白银在过去三年中表现出色，其在指数中的权重已远超目标水平。因此，追踪该指数的被动型基金（资产管理规模超600亿美元）将被迫在1月8日至14日期间集中卖出黄金和白银期货，以完成再平衡。报告对抛售规模给出了明确预测：白银：将面临最沉重的抛压，预计卖盘规模将占其期货市场总未平仓合约的约9%。报告特别强调，今年白银的抛售压力“比去年更为突出”。黄金：预计将面临相当于其总未平仓合约约3%的卖盘。这一可预见的技术性卖盘，将与黄金年初的传统季节性强势（过去10年有8年在年初上涨）形成直接对冲。投资者需要高度警惕，这股强大的资金流出是否会打破历史规律，在新年第一周就给市场带来剧烈震荡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CDE":2,"SImain":2,"GCmain":2,"HMY":2,"GFI":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497290908590080,"gmtCreate":1762431766383,"gmtModify":1762433895038,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTG\">$B2Gold(BTG)$</a> 在马里存在着许多政治风险，估值就是低，所以不要重仓操作！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTG\">$B2Gold(BTG)$</a> 在马里存在着许多政治风险，估值就是低，所以不要重仓操作！","text":"$B2Gold(BTG)$ 在马里存在着许多政治风险，估值就是低，所以不要重仓操作！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497290908590080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":490369190416768,"gmtCreate":1760746689937,"gmtModify":1760746691952,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STPGF\">$Steppe Gold Limited(STPGF)$</a> 关键在于未来几年的扩产至14万盎司，看能否顺利实现","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STPGF\">$Steppe Gold Limited(STPGF)$</a> 关键在于未来几年的扩产至14万盎司，看能否顺利实现","text":"$Steppe Gold Limited(STPGF)$ 关键在于未来几年的扩产至14万盎司，看能否顺利实现","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/490369190416768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":483378715546368,"gmtCreate":1759041091272,"gmtModify":1759041093013,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAM.AU\">$TANAMI GOLD NL(TAM.AU)$</a> 亚太资源是大股东","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAM.AU\">$TANAMI 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锑矿是稀土之一，价格波动大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477865866465368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":461739772645680,"gmtCreate":1753748077546,"gmtModify":1753753020834,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"京东全面布局衣食住行各环节的服务","listText":"京东全面布局衣食住行各环节的服务","text":"京东全面布局衣食住行各环节的服务","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/461739772645680","repostId":"2555708253","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2555708253","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1753707649,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2555708253?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-28 21:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"资本丨 抢占香港餐桌，京东40亿港元收购佳宝","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2555708253","media":"IP财经","summary":"京东集团被曝以40亿港元收购香港本地超市品牌佳宝食品超级市场约70%股权。这家由京东与林晓毅共同持有的新实体，将于8月1日正式承接所有业务。尽管京东官方回应称“实际交易金额远未达40亿”，但承认将通过“供应链优势丰富香港零售市场供给”。京东旗下钱大妈在香港的50余家门店，与佳宝在冻肉品类上形成天然互补。京东技术人员已秘密进驻葵涌仓库，测试智能分拣系统；钱大妈的配送车开始出现在佳宝后仓，测试生鲜中转流程。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/Jvtq1ibibkib2udiblylrj3f7plialU7txjjcbxEMJ3GVJotVjtibubN5nP28Is8ich8C3FWnJt9DsAeJDu586fqBf2yQ/640?wx_fmt=png\"/><p>7月22日，一则收购消息震动香港零售市场。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>集团被曝以40亿港元收购香港本地超市品牌佳宝食品超级市场约70%股权。据消息人士透露，双方早在四个月前便已秘密签约，交易涵盖佳宝的零售网络及自有物业<span>资产</span>，资金将分批支付。</p><p>更耐人寻味的是交易设置了三年过渡期条款——京东不会立即接管业务，佳宝创始人林晓毅团队将继续管理公司直至2028年。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250728235212718v163lvbxxc26ehq\"/><p>交易细节，三年过渡期的战略缓冲</p><p>根据网络流传的佳宝母公司公告文件，其超市运营及批发业务将转移至新成立的“佳宝超级市场（香港）有限公司”。这家由京东与林晓毅共同持有的新实体，将于8月1日正式承接所有业务。</p><p>尽管京东官方回应称“实际交易金额远未达40亿”，但承认将通过“供应链优势丰富香港零售市场供给”。市场分析指出，40亿估值包含了对佳宝2030间自置商铺的溢价，这些物业早年购入成本约10亿港元，如今已成为稀缺资产。而从另外一个侧面来说，年过渡期设计显露京东的谨慎。在此期间，现有管理团队维持运营，避免文化冲突与人才流失，同时为京东赢得整合钱大妈等现有资源的缓冲期。</p><p>草根传奇，从街头小贩到超市大王</p><p>佳宝的故事堪称香港商业传奇的经典样本。1980年，18岁的林晓毅从汕尾偷渡抵港，在柴湾街头推着水果车当无牌小贩。凭借每日约2000港元收入的积累，1991年他与朋友合资3万港元在筲箕湾街市开设“泽兴肉食店”，专卖冻肉。1997年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">亚洲金融</a>风暴期间，林晓毅逆势创立“佳宝”，寓意为“街市的一块宝”。他砍掉中间环节，直接向厂家采购冻肉，通过自行分装将成本降至传统渠道的四分之一。</p><p>当代理商联合封杀时，林晓毅坚持薄利多销策略：“从不做赔本生意，只是少赚一点”。这种模式穿透香港零售市场壁垒，到2025年发展为90间分店、超千名员工的连锁网络。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250728235214553v163dqy8ainv46h\"/><p>双轨驱动，商超与地产的共生模式</p><p>回顾企业的发展，我们可以发现佳宝的核心竞争力在于构建了独特的“供应链+地产”双轮驱动模型。</p><p>在商品运营端，佳宝实现全流程自主管控：80%货品由厂家直供，自有物流完成分货上架，将中间成本压缩至传统超市的1/4。这使得其冻肉价格常年低于百佳、惠康等巨头20%30%，成为打工族和家庭主妇的“平价灯塔”。更精妙的是资产运作。2007年起，林晓毅将利润持续投入商铺收购，累计购入67处物业，包括门店及仓储设施。2010年以3.48亿购入葵涌工业大厦作总部，2021年以14.35亿转手，净赚近11亿港元。</p><p>这种“核心铺自持+边缘铺租赁”模式，既锁定运营成本又获取资产增值。据美联工商铺统计，佳宝新界北门店因靠近公屋区，人流密集度超同业30%，成为京东京东最看重的线下流量入口。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250728235226034v163mfbgzicc3wb\"/><p>京东棋局，大湾区生鲜供应链的关键落子</p><p>对京东而言，此次收购绝非简单的资产扩充，而是其粤港澳大湾区战略的关键拼图。</p><p>线下流量入口价值凸显。香港线上购物渗透率不足内地一半，实体渠道仍是消费主力场景。佳宝90家门店日均服务数十万家庭主妇和打工族，为京东提供天然用户教育场景。京东计划在300家旗舰店设立“宠物鲜食智取柜”，在其余门店增设“毛孩专区”。</p><p>供应链整合空间巨大。京东旗下钱大妈在香港的50余家门店，与佳宝在冻肉品类上形成天然互补。通过统一采购体系，预计可降低生鲜损耗率15%，这正是京东七鲜超市当前12.8%损耗率的痛点。</p><p>跨境物流枢纽功能强化。佳宝在葵涌、青衣的仓储设施，将升级为自动化冷库。香港冷库容量缺口达30万立方米，空置率长期低于5%。京东计划整合其投资的机器人公司，推动工厦的自动化冷链仓储升级。</p><p>挑战犹存，传统零售的数字化转型难题</p><p>收购完成只是长征第一步，京东面临三重整合挑战：</p><p>盈利模式重塑迫在眉睫。佳宝赖以生存的薄利模式面临极限挤压，2025年Q1香港冻肉进口价上涨13%，但其售价仅调高3%。京东需通过规模采购消化成本压力，这要求其快速打通大湾区采购体系。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>协同考验运营智慧。京东计划将佳宝接入“小时达”服务体系，但香港冷藏配送成本高达内地2.3倍。是否将配送成本转嫁消费者，将成为体验与盈利的艰难平衡。</p><p>团队文化融合暗藏风险。创始团队与京东互联网基因的碰撞已在过渡期条款中埋下伏笔。林晓毅曾对媒体坦言：“我做生意信直觉，数据报表看不明白”。两种思维模式能否共生，决定整合成败。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250728235238384v163vcgc6q3vvbt\"/><p>新界主妇们还未意识到，她们每周光顾的佳宝超市即将迎来巨变。京东技术人员已秘密进驻葵涌仓库，测试智能分拣系统；钱大妈的配送车开始出现在佳宝后仓，测试生鲜中转流程。</p><p>而三年过渡期后，当林晓毅真正交棒时，香港街坊手中的购物袋或许已变成京东智能柜取货码。这场40亿港元的收购，终将改变香港人餐桌的模样。</p><p>注：本公众号所刊发稿件及图片来源于网络，仅用于交流使用，如有侵权请联系回复，我们收到信息后会在24小时内处理</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>资本丨 抢占香港餐桌，京东40亿港元收购佳宝</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250728235324a6c6403c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89618":"京东集团-SWR","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0463099449.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","09618":"京东集团-SW","BK4558":"双十一","LU1188198961.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) INC QV","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","IE00BGV7N243.SGD":"FSSA Global Emerging Markets Focus I Acc SGD","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1688375341.USD":"贝莱德中国灵活股票基金","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","BK4614":"Manus概念股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc 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这股波动很大，经常几个月时间就腰斩或者翻倍，十分适合做交易！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407847302890096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317842632302640,"gmtCreate":1718636838771,"gmtModify":1718636840759,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这么多大牛股","listText":"这么多大牛股","text":"这么多大牛股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317842632302640","repostId":"2444180457","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2444180457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1718599445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2444180457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-17 12:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电的日本供应商，大涨1000%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2444180457","media":"半导体行业观察","summary":"日本工业用水公司 Organo 是台湾半导体制造公司的主要供应商，在技术实力和对芯片市场波动的抵抗力的推动下，该公司股价在五年内上涨了约 10 倍。该公司于 2000 年成为台积电供应商，并于 2005 年在台湾设立分公司。受日元汇率影响，该公司截至 2025 年 3 月的全年净利润预计将下降 7%。一些市场观察人士认为 Organo 的股本回报率将提高到 20% 左右。该银行预计，到 2027 年，这一比例可能会上升到 13%，即 1160 亿美元。自 2022 年底以来，其股价已上涨了五倍多。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>日本工业用水公司 Organo 是台湾半导体制造公司的主要供应商，在技术实力和对芯片市场波动的抵抗力的推动下，该公司股价在五年内上涨了约 10 倍。</p><p>尽管投资者对此很感兴趣，但进一步的增长取决于该公司提高资产效率的能力。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>位于日本西南部熊本县的尖端晶圆厂的中央公用设施控制着流入生产设施的水和电。Organo 正是在这里生产对芯片制造过程至关重要的超纯水 (UPW)。</p><p>半导体级 UPW 所含杂质不能超过万亿分之一——比奥林匹克游泳池里的一撮还少。Organo 使用树脂膜和化学品去除污垢、金属离子和细菌等污染物，将水处理到这种高纯度。</p><p>Organo 成立于 1946 年，1957 年开始为电子产品制造商提供超纯水。该公司于 2000 年成为台积电供应商，并于 2005 年在台湾设立分公司。在台积电进入美国市场后，该公司也在美国设立了分公司。</p><p>随着半导体的发展，超纯水的标准也在不断提高。市售设备无法测量尖端芯片制造所需的纯度水平。Organo 使用专有膜，成为世界上第一个检测 10 纳米颗粒的公司。</p><p>Organo 持续的技术进步使它与许多主要芯片制造商开展业务，并在用于先进半导体的超纯水市场中占有领先份额。</p><p>该公司还参与了日本国有芯片制造商 Rapidus 在北海道建造的一家新尖端工厂。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师 Takeru Adachi 表示，Organo“可以选择有利可图的合同，因为它的产能还没有赶上需求”。</p><p>受日元汇率影响，该公司截至 2025 年 3 月的全年净利润预计将下降 7%。但过去十年，营业利润增长了 9 倍多，预计本财年将再增长 2%，达到 230 亿日元（1.46 亿美元）。</p><p>Organo 的股价在 5 月底达到 8,860 日元——考虑到股票分割后创下历史新高。除了公司的增长潜力外，投资者还被其在一个容易出现繁荣和萧条的行业中的盈利稳定性所吸引。</p><p>根据过去 10 年的营业利润，Organo 的变异系数 (CV) 为 0.67，与日经半导体股票指数中的其他 26 家公司相比被认为是稳定的。</p><p>过去十年，只有包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SONY\">索尼</a>集团在内的四家公司的营业利润增长超过了 Organo。在这四家公司中，只有索尼的 CV 小于 Organo。</p><p>功率半导体制造商三垦电气和芯片设备制造商 Screen Holdings 的 CV 值与 Organo 相似，分别为 0.68 和 0.62。但 Sanken 的 10 年营业利润增长了两倍，Screen 的 10 年营业利润增长了六倍。</p><p>Organo 保持稳定的收益，很大程度上是因为没有接触硅循环。如果芯片制造商缩减运营规模，该公司仍必须在其工艺过程中使用水进行净化。水系统的维护为 Organo 带来了稳定的收入。</p><p>在股本回报率方面，Organo 在上一财年的股本回报率为 18.4%，优于国内竞争对手 Kurita Water Industries。但该指标落后于日本竞争对手野村微科学的 32.1% 的股本回报率。Organo 和野村微科学的营业利润率徘徊在 15% 左右，栗田微科学紧随其后。</p><p>野村微科学的股价在五年内上涨了约 30 倍，尽管自春季以来其股价已失去动力。日经价值搜索显示，其资产周转率为 1.3，高于 Organo 的 0.87，该比率衡量一家公司的资产产生了多少收入。</p><p>Organo 很难达到与不拥有自己设施的野村微电子相同的比率。不过，Organo 正在努力提高效率，包括使用人工智能。</p><p>目标是实现其水处理厂设计和运行过程的部分自动化，并优化过程中化学品的使用。更高的效率可能会为新的商机打开大门。</p><p>一些市场观察人士认为 Organo 的股本回报率将提高到 20% 左右。该公司还计划审查其房地产和股权持有情况。</p><h2 id=\"id_1797388991\">设备大厂，两年大涨500%</h2><p>人工智能需要越来越快的芯片，但制造这些芯片的成本却越来越高。因此先进封装已成为半导体行业的最新热点，许多企业从中受益，其中包括一家名不见经传的日本设备制造商。</p><p>芯片封装（将芯片放入保护壳并将其与电源和其他组件连接起来）过去相对次要。制造芯片本身的速度更快、体积更小需要付出更多努力。大多数芯片封装（半导体制造的最后一步）都外包给专门从事组装和测试的公司，成本是主要考虑因素。</p><p>因此，这并不是一个特别有吸引力的行业。例如，全球最大的芯片封装和测试公司台湾日月光科技去年的毛利率为 16%，而台湾半导体制造股份有限公司的毛利率为 54%。</p><p>但随着芯片尺寸接近原子级，进一步缩小芯片尺寸的成本越来越高。因此，最近的人工智能热潮让先进封装备受关注。其理念很简单：将不同的芯片紧密集成在一个封装中可以减少数据传输时间和能耗。</p><p>一个特殊的用例是内存芯片，尤其是随着人工智能需求的激增。所谓的高带宽内存（HBM）将多层内存芯片堆叠在一起，并将它们放在靠近中央处理器的位置，以加快数据传输速度。</p><p>例如，Nvidia 的 H200 AI 芯片将六个 HBM 与自己的图形处理单元集成在一起。自 2022 年底以来，韩国内存芯片制造商 SK Hynix 的股价已上涨近三倍。它是 HBM 领域的早期领导者，领先于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>称，到 2023 年，先进封装占全球半导体收入的 9%。该银行预计，到 2027 年，这一比例可能会上升到 13%，即 1160 亿美元。</p><p>由于该工艺需要集成不同类型的芯片，因此它在芯片制造过程中变得越来越重要。制造芯片的代工厂必须与其他芯片制造商合作设计封装。</p><p>这也是台积电凭借其晶圆基板芯片封装技术（CoWoS）在业界处于领先地位的原因之一。这种先进封装技术的产能有限，一直是生产更多 AI 芯片的瓶颈。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>拥有类似的技术。SK海力士已与台积电联手开发下一代HBM和先进封装技术。</p><p>一家在幕后拼命赚钱的公司是日本半导体设备制造商 Disco。该公司生产用于研磨和切割印有芯片的硅片的工具。当芯片堆叠在一起时，更薄的晶圆变得更加重要。</p><p>摩根士丹利估计，Disco 约 40% 的收入来自先进封装。自 2022 年底以来，其股价已上涨了五倍多。</p><p>继续将芯片做得更小可能会更加困难，但更具创新性的封装方法仍能带来很多机会。</p></body></html>","source":"bdthygc","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电的日本供应商，大涨1000%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电的日本供应商，大涨1000%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-17 12:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2NDgzNTQ4MA%3D%3D&mid=2247741969&idx=5&sn=23703cca3b5f132ece03dba4906b36b8&chksm=ce6e30e6f919b9f0f4fd9da45644ac38eb93be24fcc2f4d4f94b58b502153e5ef1fcfb93a10b&mpshare=1&scene=23&sharer_shareinfo=1b1bc6e938627a2e3e03b4aff356744b&sharer_shareinfo_first=1b1bc6e938627a2e3e03b4aff356744b#rd><strong>半导体行业观察</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>日本工业用水公司 Organo 是台湾半导体制造公司的主要供应商，在技术实力和对芯片市场波动的抵抗力的推动下，该公司股价在五年内上涨了约 10 倍。尽管投资者对此很感兴趣，但进一步的增长取决于该公司提高资产效率的能力。台积电位于日本西南部熊本县的尖端晶圆厂的中央公用设施控制着流入生产设施的水和电。Organo 正是在这里生产对芯片制造过程至关重要的超纯水 (UPW)。半导体级 UPW 所含杂质不能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg2NDgzNTQ4MA%3D%3D&mid=2247741969&idx=5&sn=23703cca3b5f132ece03dba4906b36b8&chksm=ce6e30e6f919b9f0f4fd9da45644ac38eb93be24fcc2f4d4f94b58b502153e5ef1fcfb93a10b&mpshare=1&scene=23&sharer_shareinfo=1b1bc6e938627a2e3e03b4aff356744b&sharer_shareinfo_first=1b1bc6e938627a2e3e03b4aff356744b#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7d9b194d96e4c6db22f1b0ef0ddeb38","relate_stocks":{"LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU2491049909.HKD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 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年成为台积电供应商，并于 2005 年在台湾设立分公司。在台积电进入美国市场后，该公司也在美国设立了分公司。随着半导体的发展，超纯水的标准也在不断提高。市售设备无法测量尖端芯片制造所需的纯度水平。Organo 使用专有膜，成为世界上第一个检测 10 纳米颗粒的公司。Organo 持续的技术进步使它与许多主要芯片制造商开展业务，并在用于先进半导体的超纯水市场中占有领先份额。该公司还参与了日本国有芯片制造商 Rapidus 在北海道建造的一家新尖端工厂。高盛分析师 Takeru Adachi 表示，Organo“可以选择有利可图的合同，因为它的产能还没有赶上需求”。受日元汇率影响，该公司截至 2025 年 3 月的全年净利润预计将下降 7%。但过去十年，营业利润增长了 9 倍多，预计本财年将再增长 2%，达到 230 亿日元（1.46 亿美元）。Organo 的股价在 5 月底达到 8,860 日元——考虑到股票分割后创下历史新高。除了公司的增长潜力外，投资者还被其在一个容易出现繁荣和萧条的行业中的盈利稳定性所吸引。根据过去 10 年的营业利润，Organo 的变异系数 (CV) 为 0.67，与日经半导体股票指数中的其他 26 家公司相比被认为是稳定的。过去十年，只有包括索尼集团在内的四家公司的营业利润增长超过了 Organo。在这四家公司中，只有索尼的 CV 小于 Organo。功率半导体制造商三垦电气和芯片设备制造商 Screen Holdings 的 CV 值与 Organo 相似，分别为 0.68 和 0.62。但 Sanken 的 10 年营业利润增长了两倍，Screen 的 10 年营业利润增长了六倍。Organo 保持稳定的收益，很大程度上是因为没有接触硅循环。如果芯片制造商缩减运营规模，该公司仍必须在其工艺过程中使用水进行净化。水系统的维护为 Organo 带来了稳定的收入。在股本回报率方面，Organo 在上一财年的股本回报率为 18.4%，优于国内竞争对手 Kurita Water Industries。但该指标落后于日本竞争对手野村微科学的 32.1% 的股本回报率。Organo 和野村微科学的营业利润率徘徊在 15% 左右，栗田微科学紧随其后。野村微科学的股价在五年内上涨了约 30 倍，尽管自春季以来其股价已失去动力。日经价值搜索显示，其资产周转率为 1.3，高于 Organo 的 0.87，该比率衡量一家公司的资产产生了多少收入。Organo 很难达到与不拥有自己设施的野村微电子相同的比率。不过，Organo 正在努力提高效率，包括使用人工智能。目标是实现其水处理厂设计和运行过程的部分自动化，并优化过程中化学品的使用。更高的效率可能会为新的商机打开大门。一些市场观察人士认为 Organo 的股本回报率将提高到 20% 左右。该公司还计划审查其房地产和股权持有情况。设备大厂，两年大涨500%人工智能需要越来越快的芯片，但制造这些芯片的成本却越来越高。因此先进封装已成为半导体行业的最新热点，许多企业从中受益，其中包括一家名不见经传的日本设备制造商。芯片封装（将芯片放入保护壳并将其与电源和其他组件连接起来）过去相对次要。制造芯片本身的速度更快、体积更小需要付出更多努力。大多数芯片封装（半导体制造的最后一步）都外包给专门从事组装和测试的公司，成本是主要考虑因素。因此，这并不是一个特别有吸引力的行业。例如，全球最大的芯片封装和测试公司台湾日月光科技去年的毛利率为 16%，而台湾半导体制造股份有限公司的毛利率为 54%。但随着芯片尺寸接近原子级，进一步缩小芯片尺寸的成本越来越高。因此，最近的人工智能热潮让先进封装备受关注。其理念很简单：将不同的芯片紧密集成在一个封装中可以减少数据传输时间和能耗。一个特殊的用例是内存芯片，尤其是随着人工智能需求的激增。所谓的高带宽内存（HBM）将多层内存芯片堆叠在一起，并将它们放在靠近中央处理器的位置，以加快数据传输速度。例如，Nvidia 的 H200 AI 芯片将六个 HBM 与自己的图形处理单元集成在一起。自 2022 年底以来，韩国内存芯片制造商 SK Hynix 的股价已上涨近三倍。它是 HBM 领域的早期领导者，领先于三星电子和美光科技。摩根士丹利称，到 2023 年，先进封装占全球半导体收入的 9%。该银行预计，到 2027 年，这一比例可能会上升到 13%，即 1160 亿美元。由于该工艺需要集成不同类型的芯片，因此它在芯片制造过程中变得越来越重要。制造芯片的代工厂必须与其他芯片制造商合作设计封装。这也是台积电凭借其晶圆基板芯片封装技术（CoWoS）在业界处于领先地位的原因之一。这种先进封装技术的产能有限，一直是生产更多 AI 芯片的瓶颈。三星和英特尔拥有类似的技术。SK海力士已与台积电联手开发下一代HBM和先进封装技术。一家在幕后拼命赚钱的公司是日本半导体设备制造商 Disco。该公司生产用于研磨和切割印有芯片的硅片的工具。当芯片堆叠在一起时，更薄的晶圆变得更加重要。摩根士丹利估计，Disco 约 40% 的收入来自先进封装。自 2022 年底以来，其股价已上涨了五倍多。继续将芯片做得更小可能会更加困难，但更具创新性的封装方法仍能带来很多机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311598778404960,"gmtCreate":1717099857791,"gmtModify":1717099859148,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 下跌是被赛富时的财报所带动<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">$巴西石油公司(PBR)$&nbsp;</a>为什么派息0.55元除权后却价格低了1.1元？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">$巴西石油公司(PBR)$&nbsp;</a>为什么派息0.55元除权后却价格低了1.1元？","text":"$巴西石油公司(PBR)$ 为什么派息0.55元除权后却价格低了1.1元？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658597998","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3491812622453185","idStr":"3491812622453185"},"content":"还持有嘛？","text":"还持有嘛？","html":"还持有嘛？"},{"author":{"id":"3549260588182648","authorId":"3549260588182648","name":"qi118","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f49e7eddd6c91b5562682b263cfc9c8a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3549260588182648","idStr":"3549260588182648"},"content":"我认为是DR股比例1:2，这个我查了下不知道什么意思，是不是除权1.1，才分0.55？","text":"我认为是DR股比例1:2，这个我查了下不知道什么意思，是不是除权1.1，才分0.55？","html":"我认为是DR股比例1:2，这个我查了下不知道什么意思，是不是除权1.1，才分0.55？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857647268,"gmtCreate":1635524092580,"gmtModify":1635524092580,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RAAS\">$容联云(RAAS)$</a>最容易大幅亏损的做法就是买入新上市的热门股票：抄送<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">$百世集团(BEST)$</a>趣店、金山云","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RAAS\">$容联云(RAAS)$</a>最容易大幅亏损的做法就是买入新上市的热门股票：抄送<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">$贝壳(BEKE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">$百世集团(BEST)$</a>趣店、金山云","text":"$容联云(RAAS)$最容易大幅亏损的做法就是买入新上市的热门股票：抄送$贝壳(BEKE)$$百世集团(BEST)$趣店、金山云","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857647268","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468187075191879","authorId":"3468187075191879","name":"探戈儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d50f29ba586131a1b22c6a110b8581","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3468187075191879","idStr":"3468187075191879"},"content":"容联云 12的成本，贝壳37的成本，中概股不能玩","text":"容联云 12的成本，贝壳37的成本，中概股不能玩","html":"容联云 12的成本，贝壳37的成本，中概股不能玩"},{"author":{"id":"3532529402361896","authorId":"3532529402361896","name":"田泷Vincent","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48a012c7ffeae72353fd96936d87216","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3532529402361896","idStr":"3532529402361896"},"content":"我raas 跌幅90% 赔了20万刀","text":"我raas 跌幅90% 赔了20万刀","html":"我raas 跌幅90% 赔了20万刀"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":239838385561832,"gmtCreate":1699578107187,"gmtModify":1699578109118,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我觉得肯定还会加息，且加得比较多，最终息率可能达到10%以上","listText":"我觉得肯定还会加息，且加得比较多，最终息率可能达到10%以上","text":"我觉得肯定还会加息，且加得比较多，最终息率可能达到10%以上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/239838385561832","repostId":"2382827881","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2382827881","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1699577799,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2382827881?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-10 08:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔不会关闭“加息大门”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2382827881","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"北京时间周五，被视为“美联储喉舌”、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，美联储即使继续按兵不动，但在没有确切证据表明通胀进一步放缓的情况下，仍保留加息选项。美联储主席鲍威尔没有提出加息的理由，也不会关闭继续加息的大门。北京时间周五凌晨，鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织（IMF）的会议上表示，...","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>美联储即使继续按兵不动，但在没有确切证据表明通胀进一步放缓的情况下，仍保留加息选项。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">北京时间周五，被视为“美联储喉舌”、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，美联储即使继续按兵不动，但在没有确切证据表明通胀进一步放缓的情况下，仍保留加息选项。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美联储主席鲍威尔没有提出加息的理由，也不会关闭继续加息的大门。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">北京时间周五凌晨，鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织（IMF）的会议上表示，没有信心政策已收到足够紧的程度让通胀降至2%，重申保持谨慎，但如果合适，美联储将毫不迟疑地加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管最近物价和工资压力有所缓解，使更多投资者认为美联储加息已接近尾声，但鲍威尔隔夜的演讲中令人大失所望。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">虽然鲍威尔没有给出现在就加息的理由，但他提到了早期通胀“假象”，此前物价压力暂时减弱然后又出乎联储意料地反弹的例子。他说，美联储将密切监测经济状况，以避免被“几个月良好的数据所迷惑”，也要避免利率过高的风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为遏制通胀，美联储今年已将利率提高至22年来的最高点。在上周举行的议息会议上，美联储宣布维持当前5.25%-5.50%的联邦基金利率目标区间不变，这是美联储去年3月开启加息周期以来首次连续两次暂停加息，也是年内第三次暂停加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储将在12月12-13日举行年内的最后一次议息会议。对此，Timiraos表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>鲍威尔对12月继续维持利率不变或如果明年在经济和通胀没有如普遍预期的放缓，再次加息留下了充分空间。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在IMF会议上的预备言论中，鲍威尔说，美联储“不确定”是否已把利率提高到足以在未来两三年内将通胀降到2%的目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但是在问答环节中，<strong>鲍威尔承认通胀调整后的利率确实很高。</strong>他说:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们现在的政策是限制性的，可能是显著限制性的，我们正在仔细观察它对经济的影响。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美国劳工部上周公布的非农报告，10月份失业率从9月的3.8%略微上升至3.9%，但较4月的低点上涨超0.5个百分点，这表明劳动力市场仍很强劲，但近几个月对劳动力的需求有所放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，今年的通胀压力有所降温。根据美国商务部公布的数据，4-9月期间的核心通胀率为同比上升2.8%，比去年的近期峰值5.6%大幅回落。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔说，美联储对这一进展感到鼓舞，但预计稳定将通胀降至2%的过程不会轻松。受益于今年供应瓶颈的缓解和求职人数增加，美国通胀逐步放缓的同时经济保持一定韧性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但鲍威尔警告说，<strong>如果这些供应方面的有利条件已经过去，进一步降低通胀可能会更加困难。</strong>他说:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们知道，实现2%的通胀目标还远未确定。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔不会关闭“加息大门”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新美联储通讯社”：鲍威尔不会关闭“加息大门”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-10 08:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701718><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储即使继续按兵不动，但在没有确切证据表明通胀进一步放缓的情况下，仍保留加息选项。北京时间周五，被视为“美联储喉舌”、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，美联储即使继续按兵不动，但在没有确切证据表明通胀进一步放缓的情况下，仍保留加息选项。美联储主席鲍威尔没有提出加息的理由，也不会关闭继续加息的大门。北京时间周五凌晨，鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织（IMF）的会议上表示，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701718\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3701718","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2382827881","content_text":"美联储即使继续按兵不动，但在没有确切证据表明通胀进一步放缓的情况下，仍保留加息选项。北京时间周五，被视为“美联储喉舌”、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称，美联储即使继续按兵不动，但在没有确切证据表明通胀进一步放缓的情况下，仍保留加息选项。美联储主席鲍威尔没有提出加息的理由，也不会关闭继续加息的大门。北京时间周五凌晨，鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织（IMF）的会议上表示，没有信心政策已收到足够紧的程度让通胀降至2%，重申保持谨慎，但如果合适，美联储将毫不迟疑地加息。尽管最近物价和工资压力有所缓解，使更多投资者认为美联储加息已接近尾声，但鲍威尔隔夜的演讲中令人大失所望。虽然鲍威尔没有给出现在就加息的理由，但他提到了早期通胀“假象”，此前物价压力暂时减弱然后又出乎联储意料地反弹的例子。他说，美联储将密切监测经济状况，以避免被“几个月良好的数据所迷惑”，也要避免利率过高的风险。为遏制通胀，美联储今年已将利率提高至22年来的最高点。在上周举行的议息会议上，美联储宣布维持当前5.25%-5.50%的联邦基金利率目标区间不变，这是美联储去年3月开启加息周期以来首次连续两次暂停加息，也是年内第三次暂停加息。美联储将在12月12-13日举行年内的最后一次议息会议。对此，Timiraos表示：鲍威尔对12月继续维持利率不变或如果明年在经济和通胀没有如普遍预期的放缓，再次加息留下了充分空间。在IMF会议上的预备言论中，鲍威尔说，美联储“不确定”是否已把利率提高到足以在未来两三年内将通胀降到2%的目标。但是在问答环节中，鲍威尔承认通胀调整后的利率确实很高。他说:我们现在的政策是限制性的，可能是显著限制性的，我们正在仔细观察它对经济的影响。根据美国劳工部上周公布的非农报告，10月份失业率从9月的3.8%略微上升至3.9%，但较4月的低点上涨超0.5个百分点，这表明劳动力市场仍很强劲，但近几个月对劳动力的需求有所放缓。与此同时，今年的通胀压力有所降温。根据美国商务部公布的数据，4-9月期间的核心通胀率为同比上升2.8%，比去年的近期峰值5.6%大幅回落。鲍威尔说，美联储对这一进展感到鼓舞，但预计稳定将通胀降至2%的过程不会轻松。受益于今年供应瓶颈的缓解和求职人数增加，美国通胀逐步放缓的同时经济保持一定韧性。但鲍威尔警告说，如果这些供应方面的有利条件已经过去，进一步降低通胀可能会更加困难。他说:我们知道，实现2%的通胀目标还远未确定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"US6M.BOND":1,"ESmain":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"US7Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"SSO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"US30Y.BOND":1,"SPY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187054156894232,"gmtCreate":1686691471215,"gmtModify":1686691473592,"author":{"id":"28157621219307","authorId":"28157621219307","name":"寻找未被市场了解的价值股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5ac23c1de3f9f7e6ede57af9eef027","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"28157621219307","idStr":"28157621219307"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国股市好像永远都不用考虑风险一样了！每次稍微跌下来一点，在低位也维持不了多久","listText":"美国股市好像永远都不用考虑风险一样了！每次稍微跌下来一点，在低位也维持不了多久","text":"美国股市好像永远都不用考虑风险一样了！每次稍微跌下来一点，在低位也维持不了多久","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187054156894232","repostId":"1194334875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194334875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1686646811,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194334875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-13 17:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"越看越像2008！美股本轮“牛市”实则暗藏杀机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194334875","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，市场可能需要上一门","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，<strong>市场可能需要上一门“历史补习课”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">负责管理坐拥7000亿美元资产的摩根大通CIO Bob Michele认为，<strong>当前的经济局势与2008年全球金融危机有太多相似之处</strong>，因此<strong>不能轻率地排除危机重演的可能性</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管美国已有四家大银行在今年春天倒闭，但事实证明，经济数据具有弹性，股票价格继续走高，这是因为人们认为，AI将使社会生产力大幅提高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">15年前，摩根大通收购了华尔街第五大投资银行贝尔斯登，以避免其破产，这与最近收购第一共和银行的做法如出一辙，后者似乎阻止了危机在地区银行业中的进一步蔓延。Michele在接受外媒采访时表示：</p><blockquote>“这确实让我想起2008年3-6月的那段时期（摩根大通收购贝尔斯登交易后三个月的市场涨势），市场认为出现了一场危机，但有了政策回应，市场以为危机得到了解决。”</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这位摩根大通CIO目前正在对自己的资产进行压力测试，以应对未来几个季度经济活动收缩3%至5%的情况</strong>，因为他不相信高盛的乐观预测，即美国甚至可以避免已经降临欧洲的那种温和衰退。他表示：“如果没有衰退，这将是一个奇迹”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Michele还兼任摩根大通资产管理部门固定收益业务的全球主管。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>风险“无处不在”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">庞大的经济规模往往意味着，当所谓的“建筑外墙”出现漏水时，内部早已出现了结构性损伤。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">许多华尔街资深人士在美国上一次面临如此高的通胀率时还没有开始他们的职业生涯，美联储的严厉紧缩政策可能还没有被他们感受到，这是因为实际利率，即使用美联储青睐的4.4%的年化通胀率进行调整后的利率，虽然不再为负，但还没有达到对经济增长构成实质性限制的程度。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管住宅地产已不再那么令人担忧，但随着人们转向远程办公，<strong>商业地产行业的空置率飙升</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据房地产数据提供商Trepp的数据，到2027年，美国将有超过<strong>1.4万亿美元</strong>的商业地产贷款到期，仅今年就有2700亿美元到期。<strong>这些债务中的大部分将不得不以更高的利率展期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“有很多公司坐拥非常低成本的资金”，Michele说。“当他们进行再融资时，债务将增加一倍、两倍，或者甚至无法展期，他们将不得不经历某种重组或违约”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对投资者来说，<strong>另一个危险信号是债务上限谈判的余震</strong>，即财政部需要补充其一般账户，因为此前的债务上限僵局，其一般账户已接近枯竭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在，一波价值1万亿美元的政府债券海啸预计将在9月前冲击市场，而此前Michele警告称，<strong>美联储已经通过量化紧缩每月抽走950亿美元的流动性</strong>，这些流动性是支撑资产价格的“氧气”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对此，去年最赚的对冲基金Citadel的CEO、亿万富翁Ken Griffin认为，<strong>以目前的估值来看，人工智能炒作更多的是泡沫</strong>，<strong>如果之后资金从风险较高的股票流向回报可观的更安全的债券，可能会打击股市。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>经济威胁一直被忽视，直到爆发</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">可能很少有人记得的是，次贷危机实际上是一辆行驶缓慢的“火车残骸”，当时<strong>很少有人能想象到2008年下半年将出现降临全球的灾难。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2007年3月底，当时的美联储主席伯南克告诉国会，次级抵押贷款市场对整体经济的溢出风险“可能得到控制”。在他发表讲话的时候，美国最大的向信用评分较差的购房者提供贷款的独立机构新世纪金融（New Century Financial）已经摇摇欲坠，一周后，它最终申请破产保护。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>贝尔斯登的问题直到次年6月才开始显现</strong>，当时这家投资银行策划了一项32亿美元的救援计划，以拯救其旗下从事美国房地产市场投机的对冲基金。2008年3月，它与摩根大通的“仓促联姻”似乎标志着危机的高潮，但又过了<strong>6个月</strong>，雷曼兄弟才破产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同样重要的是，雷曼兄弟虽然是最引人注目的受害者，但不是唯一一个。当时全球最大的保险公司美国国际集团（AIG Financial Products）要求纳税人提供惊人的1820亿美元援助，原因是AIG金融产品部门的一小部分伦敦雇员进行了高风险的押注。华盛顿互惠银行、美联银行和美林等大型银行要么倒闭，要么被廉价收购。Michele总结道：</p><blockquote>“有很多事情与2008年产生了共鸣。然而，在它发生之前，它在很大程度上被忽视了。”</blockquote></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>越看越像2008！美股本轮“牛市”实则暗藏杀机？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n越看越像2008！美股本轮“牛市”实则暗藏杀机？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-13 17:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114830><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，市场可能需要上一门“历史补习课”。负责管理坐拥7000亿美元资产的摩根大通CIO Bob Michele认为，当前的经济局势与2008年全球金融危机有太多相似之处，因此不能轻率地排除危机重演的可能性。尽管美国已有四家大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114830\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114830","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194334875","content_text":"小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，市场可能需要上一门“历史补习课”。负责管理坐拥7000亿美元资产的摩根大通CIO Bob Michele认为，当前的经济局势与2008年全球金融危机有太多相似之处，因此不能轻率地排除危机重演的可能性。尽管美国已有四家大银行在今年春天倒闭，但事实证明，经济数据具有弹性，股票价格继续走高，这是因为人们认为，AI将使社会生产力大幅提高。15年前，摩根大通收购了华尔街第五大投资银行贝尔斯登，以避免其破产，这与最近收购第一共和银行的做法如出一辙，后者似乎阻止了危机在地区银行业中的进一步蔓延。Michele在接受外媒采访时表示：“这确实让我想起2008年3-6月的那段时期（摩根大通收购贝尔斯登交易后三个月的市场涨势），市场认为出现了一场危机，但有了政策回应，市场以为危机得到了解决。”这位摩根大通CIO目前正在对自己的资产进行压力测试，以应对未来几个季度经济活动收缩3%至5%的情况，因为他不相信高盛的乐观预测，即美国甚至可以避免已经降临欧洲的那种温和衰退。他表示：“如果没有衰退，这将是一个奇迹”。Michele还兼任摩根大通资产管理部门固定收益业务的全球主管。风险“无处不在”庞大的经济规模往往意味着，当所谓的“建筑外墙”出现漏水时，内部早已出现了结构性损伤。许多华尔街资深人士在美国上一次面临如此高的通胀率时还没有开始他们的职业生涯，美联储的严厉紧缩政策可能还没有被他们感受到，这是因为实际利率，即使用美联储青睐的4.4%的年化通胀率进行调整后的利率，虽然不再为负，但还没有达到对经济增长构成实质性限制的程度。 尽管住宅地产已不再那么令人担忧，但随着人们转向远程办公，商业地产行业的空置率飙升。根据房地产数据提供商Trepp的数据，到2027年，美国将有超过1.4万亿美元的商业地产贷款到期，仅今年就有2700亿美元到期。这些债务中的大部分将不得不以更高的利率展期。“有很多公司坐拥非常低成本的资金”，Michele说。“当他们进行再融资时，债务将增加一倍、两倍，或者甚至无法展期，他们将不得不经历某种重组或违约”。对投资者来说，另一个危险信号是债务上限谈判的余震，即财政部需要补充其一般账户，因为此前的债务上限僵局，其一般账户已接近枯竭。现在，一波价值1万亿美元的政府债券海啸预计将在9月前冲击市场，而此前Michele警告称，美联储已经通过量化紧缩每月抽走950亿美元的流动性，这些流动性是支撑资产价格的“氧气”。对此，去年最赚的对冲基金Citadel的CEO、亿万富翁Ken 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