大跌之后,什么值得买?

美股市场上演惊魂一夜,美债收益率飙升打压了科技股,纳指跌近3%,创下3月以来最大单日跌幅,大型科技股悉数收跌,FAANMG六大科技股中,谷歌母公司Alphabet、Facebook和微软均跌超3%,苹果、亚马逊均跌超2%,奈飞跌约1.5%,还有半导体行业大跌,大家觉得哪些可以买?

用户讨论

avatar阳光财经
2022-12-06
美股基础:高股息策略是什么?我长期持有其中两只半。 From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIp8VGiVQIE
美股基础:高股息策略是什么?我长期持有其中两只半。
avatarProguy
2022-04-10

3 stocks to buy: April 2022

3 stocks to buy in April 2022Equity prices have fallen over the recent months on fears of high inflation and a hawkish Fed. The S&P 500 index has fallen 5.83% while the high-flying Nasdaq has fallen 12.24% year-to-date. For investors with a long time horizon, the recent market selloff may present an opportunity to purchase some high-quality stocks at reasonable prices. In this article, I highlight 3 stocks worth looking into for investors looking to buy high-quality companies at a reasonable price (GARP).Stock screenerTo screen for high-quality stocks trading at reasonable prices I used the following criteria: Large Market Cap (>$10B) Located in the US Low Debt-to-Equity ratio (<0.2) Inexpensive P/FCF (<30) High operating margin (>25%) Positive sales growth in the past 5 years (>0%) From this list of 13 stocks, I narrowed my focus down to 3 companies that I believe will continue to demonstrate strong operating results. In the next section, I will be elaborating on these 3 companies and how they can add value to investors' portfolios.Alphabet (GOOGL)$谷歌A(GOOGL)$ is the first stock to make this list due to its phenomenal growth and bulletproof balance sheet. Since 2010, the company has achieved tremendous growth in the areas of operating cash flow, free cash flow and net income. According to CEO Sundar Pichai, the company has been firing on all cylinders and in Q4 2021 "saw strong growth in Google's advertising business, a quarterly sales record for its Pixel phones despite supply constraints and a Cloud business which continues to grow strongly.” The company has continued to invest in AI technology which continues to drive extraordinary value for businesses and people. Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, has recently started offering self-driving robotaxi services for its employees and could potentially tap into a market of $40 billion by 2030.Taken from Google ImagesMicron (MU)$美光科技(MU)$ is an American semiconductor company that produces memory chips including dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), flash memory (NAND), and USB flash drives. Micron's chips are important components of hardware devices such as laptops, computers smartphones which have experienced tremendous growth since the start of the Covid 19 pandemic and the digitalisation of the global economy. Micron's revenue and profits have been rather cyclical in the past as prices of memory chips were tied to the amount of supply and demand in the economy. However, the recent boom in semiconductor sales, as well as the global supply chain constraints, are tailwinds for Micron's business in the medium term. Currently, the memory chip market is dominated by a few larger players such as Samsung and SK Hynix. Therefore, these firms, including Micron have pricing power and are able to raise their prices should they experience an increase in inflationary costs.Micron's end market continues to show strength (Source: Company presentation)Zoom (ZM)$Zoom(ZM)$ is said to be a major beneficiary of the Covid 19 pandemic as economies were shut and people were forced to work from home. However, just 2 years after the start of the pandemic, ZM's share price has fallen below its pre-pandemic levels as investors ditch their "pandemic plays". I disagree that ZM will become obsolete with the seeming end of the pandemic as I believe that the company has the potential to become a permanent platform for us to communicate through web conferencing. While Zoom has faced competition from rivals such as Microsoft Teams and Google Meet, a lot of businesses are sticking to using Zoom to host their online webinars and conferences as it is the method consumers are most accustomed to. The company is also investing aggressively in the customer experience market as it sees potential growth and opportunity in that area. I too believe that video conferencing is the future of customer experience as it is much more effective than communicating through a telephone.Zoom is targeting the contact center market (Source: Company presentation)ConclusionIn this article, I have highlighted 3 stocks that investors could look to own during the recent market selloff. All 3 of the companies have demonstrated excellent operational resilience, healthy financial positions and inexpensive valuations. During these tough times, it is important to stick to high-quality companies. As legendary investor, Warren Buffet once said: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.” @TigerStars 
3 stocks to buy: April 2022
avatarProguy
2022-04-04

Why you should own AMZN, GOOGL

Why now might be the time to buy AMZN and GOOGL shares?(Taken from Google Images)2022 has not been a very good year for investors as the stock market pulled back on fears of high inflation and a more hawkish Fed. Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2019 as economic and inflation data continues to disappoint. Fearing a deeper correction in the stock market, I believe that now is the time for investors to rebalance their portfolios into high-quality names. With healthy balance sheets, strong operating cash flows and a wide economic moat, I believe that the FAANG stocks offer investors hope in a period of uncertainty. More specifically, after delving into the fundamentals of Facebook (Meta), $苹果(AAPL)$$亚马逊(AMZN)$ , Netflix and $谷歌A(GOOGL)$, I posit that Amazon and Google offer the most value to investors and have the highest potential investment returns among the FAANG names.Meta (FB)Mark Zuckerberg introduces the Metaverse (Taken from Google Images)In one of my previous articles, I initiated a HOLD rating on Meta due to cyclical weakness in its advertising revenue and uncertainty surrounding the profitability of its investments in the Metaverse. I continue to believe that Meta is facing an uncertain future as it embroils in battles regarding user privacy and is facing a mass exodus among its higher-level executives in its Metaverse space. These issues could become a thorn in the side of management and provide distractions from Meta's grand scheme of being the dominant platform in the Metaverse.Apple (AAPL)Apple's latest iPhone 13 (Taken from Google Images)Following the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, Apple has performed tremendously well as customers rushed to upgrade their devices to work from home. Two years later, analysts predict that Apple's revenue growth is likely to slow down as people return to normalcy. Analysts are only predicting an 8% revenue growth in 2022 down a massive 33% in 2021. This highlights that Apple's main business, the smartphone market is becoming saturated and may not have much room for growth. Thus, Apple has to rely on its other services: streaming, music, iCloud, etc to fuel its growth. As it becomes more difficult to grow, the rise of Apple's share price is likely to slow in tandem.Amazon (AMZN)AWS solutions (Taken from Google Images)Amazon was another beneficiary of the Covid-19 pandemic as lockdowns meant that customers were forced to turn to e-commerce to purchase their goods. However, as the global economy reopened and people returned to normalcy, e-commerce sales have slowed. Last quarter, Amazon's revenue grew only by 9% compared to 44% the previous year. While e-commerce sales may have a drag on its profitability short-term, Amazon has been investing in the future of its business and venturing into new markets with high-profit margins. Its AWS business grew operating income by 48% last quarter and is expected to continue its current trajectory. I too believe that AWS has tremendous growth potential due to its scalability and solutions which increase business productivity.Netflix(NFLX)Netflix launches its gaming services (Taken from Google Images)Similar to Meta, Netflix's investors have not been impressed with its operating results as competition in the streaming industry heats up. Companies such as Disney, HBO and Apple have launched their own streaming services which directly compete with Netflix. Furthermore, Netflix faces indirect competition from other entertainment services such as theme parks, cruises and cinemas as the economy reopens and people start spending more time outdoors. Coupled with the fact that Netflix has been spending aggressively to produce new content, free cash flows have fallen significantly. In an attempt to fight its competition, Netflix has ventured into gaming. However, there are also many players in the mobile and tablet gaming industry and Netflix has to distinguish itself from competitors such as Apple which is not an easy task.Alphabet (GOOGL)Waymo's driverless robotaxi (Taken from Google Images)Google's parent company, Alphabet is another behemoth in the tech industry and owns lots of businesses across different industries including YouTube, Google Cloud and Waymo. Just like Amazon, Google has found ways to diversify its sources of revenue away from its core search engine business. Recently, it was announced that Waymo, which offers self-driving taxi services started offering driverless robotaxi rides to employees in California. Soon, Alphabet will be able to charge customers for robotaxi services, providing it with a new exclusive stream of income. With the potential to tap into new markets, I believe that Alphabet will be able to continue to deliver excellent growth for investors.ValuationSource: Analyst forecasts and my estimatesUsing the sales estimates from analysts, I forecasted the revenue for each FAANG name for the next five years. I then assigned them a P/S multiple based on their historical average and calculated their intrinsic value based on a discount rate of 10%. Comparing the FAANG names to their current market value, it can be seen that Amazon is the most undervalued followed by Alphabet. Meta is slightly undervalued after its recent selloff but carries uncertainty regarding the future of its Metaverse business. Although Apple is a very good company, it is slightly overvalued at the moment while Netflix is the most overvalued after adjusting for its cash-burning streaming business. ConclusionWith Amazon and Google both announcing a 20-1 stock split, I believe that this presents an opportunity for investors who have yet to own these stocks. Both these companies are excellent businesses that have a higher Return on Invested Capital and investments that are likely to pay off in the long run. Owning high-quality names will allow investors to weather the storm that is the stock market and come out with positive returns in the future.Disclaimer: This article is for educational/informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and seek financial counsel before making any investment decisions.
Why you should own AMZN, GOOGL
avatarProguy
2022-04-02

ADBE: Poised for future growth

ADBE: Poised for secular growthSource: Google ImagesInvestment ThesisTech stocks have underperformed in 2022 as investors ditch their risk assets and rotate into more defensive positions. Even large-cap tech stocks with strong balance sheets such as $Adobe(ADBE)$ have not been spared from the sell-off, the company's shares falling over 20% from its peak. As valuation multiples contract, these tech stocks have become cheaper for investors to own. I believe that now could be the time for investors to go shopping for some of the beaten-down tech names which are in a position of secular growth as the risk of a US economic recession increases.ADBE is the global leader in digital media and digital marketing solutions. Its Digital Media Offerings include applications such as PhotoShop and Lightroom which allow creative professionals and enthusiasts to express themselves through apps and services for photography, video and more. It also operates Document Cloud which is a cloud-based subscription offering that enables digital document and signature workflows to drive business productivity. Document Cloud includes Acrobat DC which enables users to create secure, reliable and compact PDF documents and enables automated, collaborative workflows with a rich set of commenting, editing and sharing tools and direct integration with Adobe Sign. Lastly, its Digital Experience segment comprises a comprehensive collection of best-in-class products and solutions to manage the customer experience, all integrated onto a cloud platform, along with service, support and an open ecosystem.With the digitization of the global economy, ADBE has become an essential enterprise system used by businesses to drive productivity. Its solutions are used not only for digital design but also as a cloud platform for companies to store their information and digital assets. As the market leader, ADBE has pricing power and is able to increase the prices of its solutions to offset the effects of inflation. Therefore, I believe that in a high-inflation environment, brands such as ADBE will be able to achieve secular growth through their best-in-class products which provide innovative solutions to customers.Why did ADBE's shares sink?In December 2021, ADBE provided FY2022 guidance which missed analyst estimates, causing its shares to slide 10% together with other software companies. For fiscal 2022, Adobe forecast adjusted earnings of $13.70 per share on sales of $17.9 billion. Wall Street was targeting earnings of $14.26 a share on sales of $18.16 billion. For its fiscal first quarter in 2022, Adobe expected to earn an adjusted $3.35 per share on sales of $4.23 billion. Analysts had predicted Adobe earnings of $3.39 a share on sales of $4.33 billion. Investors were quick to write off the company’s growth on expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Fed.However, in its most recent quarterly report, ADBE beat analyst estimates earning an adjusted $3.37 per share vs estimates of $3.34. While the company did not beat expectations by a large margin, it shows that management has been conservative on its guidance and has executed well despite the challenging macroeconomic conditions.Forecasting future cash flowsADBE's FCFF from 2017-2026 (Source: My estimates)I first forecasted ADBE’s future revenue by making a slight positive adjustment to analyst estimates based on my bullish thesis. I then calculated operating income (EBIT) using an operating margin of 46% which is again similar to what analysts have forecasted. I then projected Depreciation and Amortisation expense and CapEx as a percentage of revenue based on a historical figure. I used these figures to calculate the predicted future cash flows for ADBE from FY2022 to 2026.ValuationWACC calculation (Source: My estimates)I used a 5 Year DCF Model to calculate the intrinsic value of ADBE’s shares at present. Firstly, I used ADBE’s WACC to derive a discount rate of 8.17% based on a cost of equity of 8.30% which was derived using the CAPM equation and an after-tax cost of debt of 1.91% which was then used to discount future cash flows to present value. I used a terminal EV/EBITDA multiple of 27.81x which is the mean EV/EBITDA the company has been trading at. Based on these inputs, ADBE’s intrinsic value is $665 per share which is 45% higher than what it is currently trading at ($460). Therefore, I would assign a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $665 per share.ADBE Market Value vs Intrinsic Value (Source: My estimates)ConclusionADBE has become an integral component of the enterprise software infrastructure and is expected to experience secular growth as companies continue to leverage its innovative media and cloud solutions. The recent sell-off in the technology sector presents investors with a good opportunity to buy shares at a discount to their intrinsic value. By holding these shares in the long run, investors are likely to compound their returns over time and achieve positive capital returns.Disclaimer: This article is for educational/informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Perform your own due diligence and seek financial counsel before making any investment decisions.
ADBE: Poised for future growth
avatar赖禹州_Larry
2022-03-18
avatar赖禹州_Larry
2022-03-18
$道琼斯(.DJI)$$道琼斯指数主连 2203(YMmain)$  [开心] 只有买“股指期货”最靠谱...
avatar梅姨求索记
2022-03-07

这种跌法,无关信仰,只信概率!

今天的行情,就一个词,哀鸿遍野!(或者是不是叫哀绿遍野更合适?)创业板直接跌超4%!你说A股跌的猛吧,没想到港股跌的更猛!恒生指数直接刷新了近5年多来的新低!这种时刻,有朋友高喊,“不要怕,为了信仰充值,加仓!”咳咳咳,先冷静!不过,这种跌法,无关信仰,咱们应该只信概率!不知道有多少人还记得,你当年开通股票账户时,有这样一个问题:你现在再回头看看这个问题,是不是灵魂拷问?首先第一点,你觉得现在的恒生指数也好,中概互联也好,是不是挺像上面说的投资品B的?“虽然未来有可能面临25%甚至更高的亏损,但是长期来看,也更可能获得20%甚至更多的收益”。那么,对于这样的投资品,你当初的选择是会投资它吗?经过今天这样的跌法,长期来看,未来你觉得是下跌的概率大,还是上涨的概率更大呢?第二,如果你当初的选择是会投资B,那么你又选择了多少比例投资B呢?“是大部分投资于B?还是少部分投资于B呢?”所以,你看,搞了这么多年投资,最终还是要回到自己的初心啊!就比如今天的恒生指数,今天盘中直接创下了自2016年7月8日以来5年多的新低!5年多的新低呀,你觉得现在的位置,是下跌的概率大呢,还是上涨的概率大呢?反正我是觉得未来上涨的概率大的~但是,就像梅姨在《你真的会加仓吗?举例聊聊加仓节奏~》《中概股,还继续定投吗?青瓷游戏招股,敢打吗?》中说的,哪怕你坚持定投,也一定要计算你所能承受的单个标的的投入上限!比如,如果单只标的你能接受的最大亏损是1万,最近一年中概互联已经跌了52.07%,假设你悲观的觉得这货没准能跌70%,那么你就可以倒推一下,你最大能承受的中概互联的仓位是多少!即1万/70%=1.43万,所以1.43万就是你能承受的最大仓位。一旦加到这个数就卧倒躺平,别再加仓了!当然,你也可以直接规定一个单只标的投资上限。比如你有10万元可进行投资,为了分散风险,你给自己制定的纪律就是单个标的的最大持仓是10%。那么,你投资恒生指数的最大仓位就是1万,加到1万后同样不要再加了。总之,最近这种跌法,对我们普通人来说最重要的,就是仓位控制!还有就是加仓节奏的控制!毕竟我们都是抗风险能力有限,子弹有限的普通人~延伸阅读你真的会加仓吗?举例聊聊加仓节奏~大跌了,怎么加仓?如何正确加仓?如何计算最大跌幅?中概互联还能定投吗?$中概互联网ETF(513050)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $恒生指数ETF(513600)$ 
这种跌法,无关信仰,只信概率!
avatar梅姨求索记
2022-02-28

双创50 PK 科创50,现在谁更适合定投?

前几天梅姨聊了科创50指数后《中国核心产业的代表,科创50指数,可以定投了吗?》,有朋友留言说“双创50不是更好吗?”其实2021年6月梅姨聊过双创50《双创50 ETF发行,要不要认购?》,今天还是再简单说说~一、双创50 指数关于科创50指数,我们前面讲的比较多了,下面重点聊聊双创50指数。双创50指数,全称中证科创创业50指数,一看就是中证指数,所以我们可以去中证指数官网查看。我们只要记住这样几个关键词就可以了。-所谓的双创,是指科创板和创业板;-按什么选的呢?按股票市值大小选的,只选前50名;另外,双创50指数对于个股的权重做了限制,个股权重不能超过10%。所以,我们来看看,这样选下来这个指数到底包含了哪些个股呢?可以看到其前10大权重股,总权重占比52.43%;前10权重股中,只有中芯国际1家是科创板公司;扣除掉中芯国际4.66%的权重,也就是说,双创50指数哪怕只统计前10成分股,创业板公司的权重就已经占到了47.77%!其实,即使我们统计完整的50只成分股,也会发现其科创板公司权重也不过23.39%。所以,虽然说双创50名义上是聚焦创业板和科创板,但其实还是重仓在创业板,甚至你说它是一个创业板指数也不为过!那么好了,双创50更偏向创业板,科创50聚焦科创板,到底谁优谁劣呢?二、谁优谁劣?我们可以在中证指数官网对这两个指数的历史收益进行比较,由于双创50和科创50的指数基日都是2019年12月31日,可以看到自该基日起,两者的历史业绩如下:从历史收益来说,双创50确实是大幅跑赢科创50的,收益方面更胜一筹;但从指数编制规则来看,这两个指数其实各有侧重,谁优谁劣完全看你个人更看重哪个板块。如果你更想投资创业板,但也想沾一下科创板的光,就买偏创业板的双创50;如果你更看重科创板的话,就买纯度更高的科创50。就是这么简单~那为什么,梅姨在《中国核心产业的代表,科创50指数,可以定投了吗?》并没有说要定投双创50呢?三、现在谁更适合定投?其实坦率地说,这两个指数成立的时间都太短了,长期来看还都需要市场验证。科创50指数发布于2020年7月23日;双创50指数还要晚一年,发布于2021年6月1日,截止到今天连一年时间都没到。所以,梅姨觉得对于成立时间还不足一年的双创50指数,还是先观察观察吧,此其一。其二,前面我们说了,双创50有76.61%的权重是创业板公司。而创业板成立时间已经比较久了,那我们就可以简单粗暴地用创业板估值来判断双创50到底贵不贵。创业板PE目前处于57.68%的位置,也就是说只比历史上42.32%的时候要低。遥想2018、2019年时创业板的PE连30倍都不到。所以现在55.15倍的PE真的不算便宜,确实处于历史估值的中间水平。而科创50成立时间也不长,如果看历史估值也没啥参考性。单从估值绝对值来说,梅姨觉得也没有很便宜,毕竟也有45.06倍的PE呢。不过,矮子里面拔长子,现在科创50绝对估值好歹比创业板要便宜点。总体来说,双创50指数和科创50指数都是聚焦科技创新型企业,虽然成立时间都比较短,但估值从高点也都回撤了不少,性价比正慢慢凸显。对于没有开通创业板、科创板的朋友,同时也愿意承受高波动的话,这两个指数其实都是不错的投资标的,小仓位少量定投未尝不可。但还是要提醒一点,这两个指数的波动都比较大,风险承受能力低的朋友还请谨慎投资!$科创创业(159781)$ $科创50(000688.SH)$ 
双创50 PK 科创50,现在谁更适合定投?
avatar梅姨求索记
2022-02-23

中国核心产业的代表,科创50指数,可以定投了吗?

今天在半导体芯片的带动下,科创50指数大涨4%!有朋友就问了,“梅姨,科创50指数是个什么指数啊?”是呢,梅姨上次写到它,还是2020年7月,科创50指数刚发布的时候,时间过得可真快啊!关于科创50指数,梅姨之前写过几篇文章,感兴趣的朋友可以回看:《定投又多了一个选择~虽然她今天暴跌7%!》《新发的科创50指数基金要买吗?ETF基金和ETF联接基金再科普~》《科创50ETF正式上市~》一、什么是科创50指数?其实前面几篇文章都有介绍过哈,这里就简单说下:“科创50指数选取的是科创板中市值大、流动性好的50只证券组成,反映最具市场代表性的一批科创企业的整体表现。”简单来说,科创50指数基本是选取了科创板的50只龙头股,汇集了一众中国科技创新的龙头企业。那这些企业都有哪些呢?芯片巨头中芯国际、光伏龙头天合光能、软件龙头金山办公、半导体龙头中微公司……全都是中国未来重点发展的核心产业龙头。而且前10大权重股合计占比48.25%,龙头集中度也相对较高。真真是一个汇聚了中国核心产业的核心企业的指数呢!插一句,写到这,没准有朋友不好意思的问,“梅姨,弱弱的问一下,什么是科创板啊?总是分不清它和创业板、新三板之间的关系呢!”哈哈,没事,梅姨写文章尽量照顾到不同程度的朋友哈~关于创业板、科创板、新三板、北交所等等几个板板的关系,梅姨之前写过两篇文章哈,详细可以回看:《新三板、中小板、创业板、科创板傻傻分不清?!》《北交所打新,值得参与吗?》简单来说,就像梅姨总结的下图,了解了这张图你就了解了他们之间的关系了。当然更详细的还是回看上面两篇文章哈,这里不赘诉了。二、科创50指数业绩表现如何?既然说科创50指数这么优质,事实真的如此吗?我们来看一下它的历史业绩表现~之前有说过,科创50指数是2020年7月23日发布的,2020年9月28日才成立了对应的4只ETF,2020年11月才正式上市。我们以规模最大的华夏上证科创板50ETF(588000)为例,来看一下其历史业绩。梅姨选取了近1年的业绩表现:我们看到近1年来科创50指数大幅跑赢沪深300!虽然最近半年科创50也发生了大幅回落,最近6个月的收益率为-3.66%,但同期沪深300收益率却为-22.41%。不过曾经有朋友问过这样一个类似的问题,正好借今天解答一下。比如,梅姨选取的是最近1年的业绩表现,如果选取最近3年的业绩表现,你会惊奇地发现沪深300居然跑赢了科创50?!这又是为什么呢?不能这样看哦!因为上图反映的是基金累计收益的情况。简单说来,如果你选取3年这个区间,那表现的就是这3年内基金累计的盈利。你想啊,科创50ETF是2020年9月才成立的,你用人家一年多的盈利去PK别人3年的盈利,这肯定PK 不过呀!类似的问题,梅姨曾经在基金科普系列中解释过,感兴趣的可以回看:《基金科普(八)谁代表了基金真正的赚钱能力?》《基金科普(九)基金分红后买入,真买便宜了吗?》《基金收益翻了20倍,净值为什么不是从1涨到20呢?》虽然科创50过往业绩大幅跑赢沪深300,但高收益也意味着高风险。梅姨在《借这轮杀跌,看看几个医药基金的表现~》中说过,看一个基金的抗风险能力,主要看最大回撤、波动率、夏普比率,至于这几个指标的含义,可以回看那篇哈我们看到,科创50的波动率为24.32%,比沪深300的17.41%要高出不少,这说明科创50收益其实并不稳定,波动还是要大一些的;不过,科创50夏普比率-0.65却比沪深300的-1.05要高,说明科创50单位风险的回报反而要高一些,难怪会有超越沪深300的业绩表现呢。总之吧,以上这些说明科创50指数是一只具有高波动、高收益的指数,所以想要追求高收益,但却不想承受高波动的朋友,还是谨慎投资哈~风险和收益永远都是成正比的~三、科创50指数现在可以定投了吗?从曲线上来看,科创50确实调整了不少。可不是嘛,梅姨2020年写文的时候,科创50的PE高达88%,你再看现在呢?PE只有44.85了,估值已经下降了很多了!有朋友可能看到,目前其PE百分位只有0.39%,貌似很低了。但其实,这个指数成立的时间实在太短了,历史百分位并不具有参考性。我们只能大概来判断,目前创业板的PE是52.26,起码相比创业板来说,科创板是要便宜一些的。科创板毕竟被誉为中国版的纳斯达克,梅姨打算在现在的位置,小仓位定投一下。当然毕竟科创50是高波动、高收益的指数,所以不能承受风险的朋友,还请谨慎投资!$科创50(000688.SH)$ $博时科创50-R(82832)$ $中芯国际(688981)$ 
中国核心产业的代表,科创50指数,可以定投了吗?
avatarJU说
2021-12-27

SENS:2022年翻几番?

 数据显示,2021年全球成年糖尿病患者人数达到5.37亿(10.5%),相比2019年,糖尿病患者增加了7400万,增幅达16%,突显出全球糖尿病患病率的惊人增长。据IDF推测,到2045年这一数字将达到7.83亿,46%的增幅是同期估计人口增长(20%)的两倍多,成年人的患病比例可能达到八分之一。中国糖尿病患者已近1.3亿。《健康中国饮料食品减糖行动白皮书》显示,北上广一线城市糖尿病患病率超10%,每10人中就有1个患糖尿病。超过10% 的美国人口患有某种形式的糖尿病。另有 8800 万人有糖尿病前期症状。对于任何公司来说,这都是一个巨大的潜在市场。关于 SENSSenseonics Holdings, Inc. 是一家医疗技术公司,为美国、欧洲、中东和非洲的糖尿病患者开发和商业化连续血糖监测 (CGM) 系统。该公司的产品包括 Eversense 和 Eversense XL,它们是可植入的 CGM 系统,通过皮下传感器、可拆卸和可充电的智能发射器以及用于实时糖尿病监测和管理的便捷应用程序来测量糖尿病患者的血糖水平最长 90 天和 180 天。它通过分销商和战略履行合作伙伴网络为医疗保健提供者和患者提供服务。Senseonics 是世界上第一个也是唯一一个长期植入式 CGM 的创造者。如果你患有严重的糖尿病,那么 Eversense 很酷,植入手臂的传感器并不比一粒粗米大多少。发射器位于手臂外。它是可拆卸、可充电和防水的。Eversense CGM 系统通过皮下传感器、可拆卸和可充电智能发射器以及用于实时糖尿病监测和管理的便捷应用程序提供长达 90 天的连续血糖监测。使用 Eversense 90 天 CGM 系统,你可以简单而自信地积极管理你的糖尿病。SENS的产品Eversense 系统由三个主要组件组成:由医疗保健提供者皮下插入的传感器;一个外部可移动智能发射器;用于接收、评估和中继来自传感器的数据并提供振动警报的appEversense适用人群如果还未开始使用 CGM 系统: 想要长达 90 天的便利性而不更换传感器吗? 是否正在寻找前所未有的高精度来帮助您将血糖水平保持在安全范围内,并改善您的 A1c(糖化血红蛋白)? 除了音频和视觉警报之外,是否还希望身体振动警报的额外安全性,即使在睡眠、驾驶或您的移动设备不在附近时也能通知你? 想要易于阅读并与您的医生或亲人分享的实时数据吗? 如果已经在使用传统的 CGM 系统: 是否发现频繁插入传感器不方便和/或痛苦? 是否遇到过烦人的警报问题? 当锻炼或与孩子玩耍时,是否担心传感器脱落? 是否发现自己担心是否有足够的传感器和耗材? Eversense好处 没有其他CGM系统可以给你这么长的穿戴时间!临床证明,80%或更多时间佩戴CGM传感器可以改善糖尿病的控制。 数据精准的赋予你力量:在临床试验中,Eversense被证明可以帮助患者保持血糖水平更稳定,并且平均降低Alc水平0.5%。 只要跟换4个传感器:将不可预测的血糖测量次数从每年26-52次减少到4次。告别频繁而痛苦的自我插入传感器。 15分钟内准确的检测:95%的低血糖事件发生率和99%的高血糖事件发生率。 SENS Stock通过以上我们基本了解了sens是做什么的。那么sens是一个好的投资标的吗?Senseonics 是在过去一年中表现出巨大增长的股票(自今年年初以来,Senseonics 股价已上涨约 346.2%,而标准普尔 500 指数上涨 25.2%)。低股价和高空头兴趣吸引了散户投资者。然而,该公司正在等待美国食品和药物管理局 (FDA)对其连续血糖管理 (CGM) 系统的180 天版本的批准。这可能会完全改变 SENS 股票的价值。也就是说sens目前的产品是90天版本,使用90天就需要更换,而其180天版本的血糖监测设备已经在欧洲被批准使用。一旦FDA通过其180天的版本,市场预测股价将会是巨大的涨幅,虽然等待批准的消息已经持续了一年多。公司受疫情影响。许多患者和潜在患者无法在医生办公室和医疗机构获得护理。Senseonics 也被迫停止向新患者和医疗机构销售。管理层现在看好 2022 年的收入可能是 2020 年的两倍,分析师似乎也同意这一点。SENS 股票甚至达到了其共识价格目标。然而,最近的分析师评级赋予该股更高的上行空间。SENS 股票的空头兴趣仍然很高,因此如果正在考虑建仓,请注意波动性可能仍然存在。2021 年 9 月 30 日的季度财务业绩 2021 年第三季度的收入为 350 万美元 FDA 继续积极审查 Eversense® 180 天 PMA 补充申请 在欧洲糖尿病研究协会年会、糖尿病护理与教育专家协会年会和糖尿病技术会议上展示了 Eversense 安全性和准确性的临床数据 2021年财务展望:COVID-19继续对公司的整体业务和 FDA 对我们 180 天产品 PMA 补充申请的审查构成不确定性风险。因此,Senseonics 目前预计其 2021 年全年全球净收入将处于收入指导范围 1200 万美元至 1500 万美元的中间。真正能影响 sens 股价的是: FDA 批准 欧洲对 180 的需求强劲 竞争对手仍然没有任何可与 180 或 360天 竞争的产品 我相信一旦获得批准,价格会在 5-7 美元(更像是 5 美元)之间跳跃。然后回撤至3 美元,同时可以卖出并获得一点利润或等待更好的涨幅。 $Senseonics Holdings,Inc.(SENS)$ 
SENS:2022年翻几番?
avatar宝新金融
2021-12-13

宝新金融荐龙源电力,看好风电龙头

美国通胀持续加剧,11月份消费物价指数(CPI)按年升幅由10月的6.2%加快至6.8%,虽创1982年来最大升幅,但符合市场预期。投资者揣测联储局无必要急速收紧货币政策,刺激美股周五造好,道指先低后高,收市涨216点或0.6%报35970点;标指升0.95%,收市报4712点;纳指收市涨0.73%报15630点。$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 倒升1.3%;行政总裁马斯克续减持9.63亿美元股份,其后在Twitter贴文称考虑辞职,转当全职网红,但没有透露详情。$思科(CSCO)$ 抽高2.95%,为升幅最大道指成份股。全个星期三大指数以道指攀升4%表现最好,亦终止了过去4周连跌局面。美国劳工部公布,11月CPI按月升0.8%,略高于预期的0.7%;扣除食品和能源的核心CPI按年及按月分别涨4.9%和0.5%,均属预期之内,前者创1991年以来最快增速。11月物价上涨主要由汽油、住屋、食品和汽车价格上升带动,其中占整体CPI约三分之一组成部分的住屋成本,按月升0.5%,按年却急涨3.8%,属2007年最大升幅。其他民生物价上月亦录得显着升幅,食品价格按年飙6.4%,是2008年以来最急,汽油价格则连续两个月按月上扬6.1%。美国财政部公布,11月财赤为1913亿美元,较去年同期升32%,是有纪录以来最高的11月财赤数字,但较市场预期的1950亿美元低。财政部官员分析称,财赤反映政府收入上升抵消不了开支强劲增长。美国总统拜登表示,美国通胀升至近40年新高,但相信物价升势已经见顶,较后时间将显着下滑。美国前财长萨默斯称,决策者纵容经济过热,可能导致通胀率牢固在4%或更高水平。上周五闭幕的中央经济工作会议指出,面对需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱的三重压力,要着力稳定宏观经济大盘,保证财政支出强度并加快支出进度,跨周期和逆周期宏观调控政策要有机结合。会议指出新增可再生能源和原料用能不纳入能源消费总量控制、要适度超前开展基础设施投资、全面实行股票发行注册制、深入实施种业振兴行动,提高农机装备水平。市场观望本周联储局及多国央行议息,华尔街策略师普遍估计,联储局周三公布议息结果,将加速在明年3月结束买债,也会暗示最快明年中开始加息;联储局也会公布最新经济预测,而主席鲍威尔则会举行记者会,有关内容同样引起市场关注。市场第二焦点将是英伦银行与欧洲央行周四的议息会。市场关注Omicron新变种病毒可能让英伦银行推迟加息决定至2月。个股方面,根据联交所数据显示,$联想控股(03396)$ (03396)于上周五减持中国玻璃(03300)2633万股或1.44%,每股平均价1.95元,套现5134.4万元,最新持股量降至16.83%。根据联交所数据显示,$信义玻璃(00868)$行政总裁董清世于上周四(9日)增持该公司75万股或0.02%,每股平均价20.3379元,涉资1525.3万元,最新持股量增至11.99%。平安好医生公布,董事会批准回购计划,在市场上回购公司于股东周年大会当日已发行股份最高10%股份,最多可回购5600万股,最高资金总额13.8亿元人民币。杭州顺丰同城(09699)公布招股结果。顺丰同城以每股16.42元定价,为招股价范围16.42至17.96元的下限定价,集资净额20.3亿元,一手中签率50%,抽3手(600股)即可稳获一手。顺丰同城将于12月14日挂牌。百心安今日(13日)起至16日招股,计划发行2393.7万股,集资最多5.9亿元,发售价将不超过每股24.79元,每手500股,一手入场费12519.9元。百心安预计于12月23日挂牌。港股连升三日累弹905点后,上周五收市吐259点,失守两万四关,收市报23,995点。本周市场焦点为联储局及多国央行议息,港股今日上试20天线,留意国策板块。焦点股份推介-$龙源电力(00916)$|行业:供电供热利好因素如下:受惠电价市场化进程加速:10月12日,国家发改委发布《关于进一步深化燃煤发电上网电价市场化改革的通知》,将燃煤发电交易价格浮动范围由10%-15%,扩大为20%,有力推动电力市场化进程。煤电电价上浮有利促进绿电需求及溢价上升,进一步增强新能源运营商的盈利能力。长远而言,绿色电力交易试点工作启动有利新能源运营商价值重估。新能源概念持续领跑:龙源电力为全球最大的风力发电企业和行业领先的新能源发电企业,在全国32个省市区和加拿大、南非、乌克兰等国家拥有300多个风电场,以及光伏、生物质、潮汐、地热和火电等发电项目。截至2021年首10月,龙源完成发电量近5,109万兆瓦时,按年增长20%,其中风电增长18%。受风电输出量增加及绿色金融举措影响,集团盈利能力持续向好,首三季的纯利按年升近30%。在碳中和碳达峰的国策下,龙源电力作为新能源概念中的风电龙头可看高一线。投资者可继续持有龙源电力(00916),目标价18.5港元,暂不设止蚀价。
宝新金融荐龙源电力,看好风电龙头
复盘了昨天的交易,包含对大盘的看法,选股的策略以及进场点的个人向分析.没有空间,也不需要付费,不知道有没有人愿意看纯分享向的技术贴[你懂的] 
今天怎么这么卡,行情分时看不到
上周五的大跌很出乎意料,因为:1. Omicron ,看欧洲的数字,明显死亡率比Delta低很多,并且1个半月前已经传播开了,只是没人敢报,感谢南非提交基因报告。2. SEC只是说对3年不好好交作业的同学,我可能开除哦。 但是要不要开除SEC还有选择权。然后就被某博社炒作成中概都要被开除,气愤。所以下跌属于情绪波动+情绪波动,然后买了2张qqq的call。
avatar宝新金融
2021-12-07

招商银行--初心如雪,匠心依旧

隔晚美股反弹,三大指数收市全线上升。新变种病毒Omicron感染个案的病情大都较为温和,令投资者稍为放心,买盘入市增加。能源股、工业股和航空股造好,主要受惠经济活动重启,利好美股气氛。道指最多升超过700点,收报35227点,升646点或1.87%;纳指收报15225点,升139点或0.93%;标普500指数收报4591点,升53点或1.17%。$Meta Platforms(FB)$ 股价上周插水7.9%后,周一反复回升3.59%;英特尔攀高3.62%,苹果涨2.22%;药房股Walgreens回升3.69%,为表现最强道指成份股;$威瑞森(VZ)$ 回吐0.84%,为跌幅最大的道指成份股;中概股回升,金龙中国指数上涨3%,报9163点。截至刚过去的周日,美国已约有16个州出现Omicron确诊病例,但美国白宫疫情首席顾问福西(Anthony Fauci)仍认为虽然Omicron传播迅速,但染疫者多为轻症。来自南非一个小型研究也指出,相较于前几轮疫情,Omicron引发的症状较轻微,且初步迹象显示,其危险性没有Delta变种病毒高,但还需要更多信息才能判断Omicron的确切危险性。昨日人民银行宣布,下周三(15日)划一下调金融机构存款准备金率(RRR)0.5个百分点,合共释放长期资金约1.2万亿元人民币。油市对新变种病毒Omicron打击原油需求的忧虑纾缓,加上沙地阿拉伯调高官方售价(OSP),被视为对市场前景有信心的表现,国际油价反弹超过4%。纽约期油周一收市升4.87%,每桶报69.49美元。伦敦布兰特期油收市升4.58%,每桶报73.08美元。金市观望美国本周通胀数据,交投偏淡静,加上美汇呈强及金价上周五急升后出现获利回吐,国际金价周一轻微低收。纽约期金收市跌4.4美元或0.3%,每盎斯报1779.5美元。现货金收市跌0.23%,报每盎斯1778.5美元。个股方面,龙光地产(03380)以先旧后新方式配售1.72亿股,每股作价6.8元,集资11.7亿元。每股作价较今日收市价7.55元,折让9.9%。世茂集团(00813)公布,以先旧后新方式配售1.45亿股股份,集资净额11.7亿元,用于偿还公司债务及用作集团一般企业用途,每股配售价8.14元,较上日收市价折让约8.54%。配售股份相当于经扩大后已发行股本约3.82%。内地社交媒体平台$微博-SW(09898)$ 公布招股结果,全球发售1,100万股(包括550万股新股及550万销售股份(为售股股东新浪公司配售),当中9成为国际发售,1成为香港公开发售,国际发售项已获超额认购,相当于国际发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数的约5.5倍。每股发售价定为272.8元,较最高定价388元低29.7%,香港公开发售部分录得超额认购约1.67倍,甲组每手20股计,一手中签比率为47.24%,要认购3手即60股才可稳获一手,而乙组一手中签比率为31.3%。该股将于明日(8日)挂牌。人工智能公司$商汤-W(00020)$ ,今日(12月7日)开始招股,据销售文件,商汤科技全球发售15亿股,招股价介乎3.85至3.99元,最高集资59.85亿元,一手1000股,入场费4030.2元。商汤科技预计将在本周五(12月10日)截止认购,12月17日挂牌。恒指昨日收报23349点,跌417点或1.76%,创逾14个月收市新低。ADR港股比例指数较周一恒指收市高386点或1.63%。人行降准,中概股反弹,港股今日有望挑战10天线。焦点股份推介-招商银行 (03968)|行业:内银利好因素如下:财富管理业务持续优化:截至上半年,招商银行的零售客户1.69亿户,管理零售客户总资产(AUM)时点规模突破10万亿元,金葵花及以上客户资产保持快速增长。非利息净收入占比于行业内属高水平,代理费用收入录强劲增长,并成功构建「大生态」,形成业务飞轮效应,全面的产品特性有助满足客户多元需求。风险可控:截至报告期末,集团不良贷款余额513.02亿元,较上年末减少23.13亿元;不良贷款率0.93%,较上年末下降0.14个百分点;拨备覆盖率443.14%,较上年末上升5.46个百分点;贷款拨备率4.13%,较上年末下降0.54个百分点。随着国内疫情逐步缓解,来自各行业的贷款资产质量趋于稳定,招商银行整体来看风险可控。投资者可继续持有$招商银行(03968)$,目标价86港元,暂不设止蚀价。
招商银行--初心如雪,匠心依旧
avatarWuX
2021-12-05
$滴滴(DIDI)$证监会:中美监管合作取得积极进展!
avatarOrca_JL
2021-12-02
肯定不是因为疫情跳水的
avatar宝新金融
2021-12-01

股价可以回到原点,但小米已不像从前

哲学界有一艘忒修斯之船。请问一艘船出海数年,木头烂了就换,最后所有木头都换新的,那么这艘船还是原来的船吗?同样的灵魂问题也在拷问$小米集团-W(01810)$ 。上市三年半,股价又回到招股价附近。但投资小米的逻辑已彻底改变。刚上市时,小米的关键字是“线上”,“手机”。线下门店重点在品牌展示,2015年开始算,五年时间,开了两千多家门店,不紧不慢。但2020年11月开始,小米之家突然一脚油门踩到底,一年开出了八千多家门店。2021年,小米的关键字突然变成了“线下”,“汽车”。这是什么逻辑?或许,小米正在向几大宗教学习,毕竟他们成功的时间是以千年为单位。第一,要有教堂,有寺庙(小米体验店)。第二,要有神职人员(小米员工基本都是深度米粉)。第三,要有固定的仪式,比如礼拜,烧香。(小米年会)至于造车,厦门大学赵燕菁教授提出一个思路,真正决定互联网企业市值的,是他拥有什么量级的大数据。目前,收集用户行为的大数据硬件端口,是手机。但下一个端口,将是智能汽车。甚至有人认为,智能汽车就是加了四个轮子的大号智能手机。其中一个辅助的证据是,过去十年,$腾讯控股(00700)$ 的营业额增速和利润增速都在逐渐下降,但市盈率始终维持23倍附近。其中一个重要原因是腾讯的微信,获得了十亿中国人的大数据。撑起了市值。那么,目前小米股价跌停了吗?如果入场应该怎么止损?小米是否值得长期持有?请看$宝新金融(01282)$ Ryan最新视频。
股价可以回到原点,但小米已不像从前
avatar邱秋球
2021-11-29
这个变异只是雷声大,雨点小。因为这个变异可能就传染性强,但致命性低,因为南非这么多案例,但暂时都没有致死案例报$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$
avatarJU说
2021-11-28

SNDL是一只潜力股吗?

近期美股遇到周期性的震荡大跌,对于很多投资中概股的小伙伴来说已经跌到麻木的地步了,不仅仅中概股大跌,往往成长股在这种时候也好不到哪去,以下这段话与君共勉: “我们如果把炒股看成一辈子的投资,那么我们就不应该在意短期利空还是利多,任何事物都有周期性,我们应该多学习去判断周期性的走向,按照自己的计划操作而不是跟着市场的节奏走。” 近期的sndl波动太大了(Sundial Growers 是一家垂直整合的大麻公司),财报+回购的双重利好直接带动股价直线飙升,当我们都在期待它能顺利达到1美元每股时,却被结果狠狠的教训了一下。 先看看利好有多利好? 财报 • 2021 年第三季度的净收益为 1130 万美元,而去年第三季度为亏损 7140 万美元。 • 2021 年第三季度调整后 EBITDA 为 1,050 万美元,而 2020 年第三季度调整后 EBITDA 亏损为 440 万美元。 • 2021 年第三季度大麻部门的净收入为 1440 万美元,比 2021 年第二季度增长 57%,比 2020 年第三季度增长 12%。 大麻种植和生产:大麻种植和生产的净收入为 820 万美元,而上一季度为 920 万美元,下降了 11%。 大麻零售:在第三季度收购 Inner Spirit Holdings Inc和 Spiritleaf 零售网络后,大麻零售的净收入为 610 万美元。 • 大麻部门的毛利率为 180 万美元,其中大麻种植和生产亏损 190 万美元,而 2020 年第三季度该部门亏损 1950 万美元。 • 2021 年第三季度投资和费用收入为 330 万美元,有价证券实现收益为 600 万美元,日晷在股权投资中的利润份额为 990 万美元,而去年第三季度则为零。 • 2021 年9月30日的现金、有价证券和长期投资为 11 亿美元,2021 年11月9日为 12 亿美元,其中 5.71 亿美元不受限制的现金和无未偿债务。 • 于 2021 年 7 月 20 日收购 Inner Spirit,并于 2021 年 10 月 7 日(第三季度末后)达成协议,收购加拿大最大的私人酒类零售商 Alcanna Inc.,该公司经营 171 个门店。 “我们的第三季度业绩反映了过去 10 个月由 Sundial 团队领导的业务转型的初步影响,”Sundial 首席执行官 Zach George 说。“我们仍然专注于可持续盈利能力并持续改进我们运营的各个方面。尽管行业参与者面临着持续的挑战,但我们的财务状况从未如此强劲。由于我们力求取悦消费者并成为值得信赖的行业合作伙伴,因此与同行相比,日晷具有独特的优势。我们的资产负债表实力使我们的团队能够在努力提高决策质量的同时避免短期压力。我们预计,我们目标的实现将导致在 2022 年产生自由现金流的综合基础业务。” 回购 根据本月宣布的股份回购协议,日晷董事会批准该公司回购价值高达 1 亿加元的普通股。该协议最多涵盖 1.028 亿股,或截至公告日期(11 月 11 日)已发行股份数量的 5%。该协议将于 11 月 19 日生效,公司可以选择暂停或终止协议。 这一关键的运营举措应该会提高未来几个季度的每股收益,并结束公司稀释股东权益的倾向。 合法化 早在 2020 年,加拿大的大麻市场价值为 26 亿加元。到 2026 年,行业专家预计这一数字将达到 86.2 亿加元。根据 Grand View Research 的一份报告,预计到 2028 年全球合法大麻市场的销售额将达到 706 亿美元。实际上,预计未来七年合法大麻销售将以 26.7% 的复合年增长率增长。如果这个预测成真,大麻很容易成为世界上增长最快的行业之一。 加拿大于 2018 年 10 月 17 日将大麻合法化,而邻国美国也试图将大麻合法化。 2021 年 5 月 28 日星期五,众议员杰罗德·纳德勒 (D-NY) 在美国众议院重新引入了《大麻机会、再投资和清除 (MORE) 法案》。如果通过,该立法将结束**对大麻的禁令。众议院此前于 2020 年 12 月通过了 MORE 法案,但该法案并未在参议院取得进展。 该法案将在联邦范围内使大麻合法化并促进社会公平,确保那些因过去与大麻有关的犯罪而被定罪的人可以请愿删除或腾出他们的记录,以弥补失去的时间,有机会进入他们以前被取消资格的工作。 2021年 6 月 1 日,亚马逊的零售CEO戴夫·克拉克宣布该公司支持该法案,并将不再测试非运输工人的大麻使用情况。亚马逊还宣布将利用其“公共政策团队”(游说资源)支持该法案。亚马逊还呼吁其他企业支持该法案。 “我们希望其他雇主加入我们,政策制定者将迅速采取行动通过这项法律,”克拉克说。 风险 Sundial 的一个主要问题是它在任何业务领域都没有成功的经验。即使考虑到投资收益,其季度收入增长也相当缓慢。虽然收购加拿大最大的私人酒类零售商 Alcanna 将使其业务多样化,但 Sundial在酒类业务方面没有特别的竞争优势或特殊的敏锐度。 Sundial 的 1 亿加元的股票回购计划:虽然股票回购通常是一个好兆头,但这应该会引起投资者的不满。 当管理层将资金投入股票回购时,这对股东来说是一个很好的策略。不过,对于像 Sundial 这样的年轻公司来说,将手上的资金用于发展业务通常更有意义(这里很可能是Sundial 不能将其多余的现金投入到具有更好的收入增长业务中)。 良好的资产负债表和高增长潜力 “曾经有好几次机会摆在我的面前,我没有好好珍惜,直到失去后才后悔莫及,如果上天再给我一次机会,我会选择继续拥有!”
SNDL是一只潜力股吗?