bzlim
2021-08-06
Still gonna buy more when it drops.
This Expert Sees Apple Stock Falling 10%<blockquote>这位专家预计苹果股价将下跌10%</blockquote>
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One analyst believes that t","content":"<p>Apple shares remain stuck in the mud following strong fiscal Q3 results. One analyst believes that things will get even worse for the stock before they get better.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的第三季度财报之后，苹果股价仍深陷泥潭。一位分析师认为，该股的情况在好转之前会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Applereported very solid fiscal Q3 numberson July 27, zipping past Wall Street’s most optimistic estimates once again. But as Apple stock failed to get traction after earnings season, not all analysts seem convinced that robust past performance will translate into higher share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司7月27日公布了非常稳健的第三季度财报，再次超出了华尔街最乐观的预期。但由于苹果股票在财报季后未能获得关注，并非所有分析师似乎都相信过去的强劲表现会转化为更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Take Bernstein Toni Sacconaghi, for instance. The Apple skeptic, who has a hold rating on the stock and price target of $132 apiece,believes that AAPL has 10% downside from current levels. The Apple Maven explores the reasons why shares might dip this much.</p><p><blockquote>以伯恩斯坦·托尼·萨科纳吉为例。这位苹果怀疑论者对该股给予持有评级，目标价为每股132美元，他认为AAPL较当前水平还有10%的下跌空间。这位苹果专家探讨了股价可能下跌如此之多的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78920b004c2e6135cfe065c8940151d\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple logo sign from an Apple store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果商店的苹果标志。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The case for a 10% loss</b></p><p><blockquote><b>损失10%的案例</b></blockquote></p><p> Toni begins his argument by recognizing that the bar had been set too high ahead of earnings season. This is reasonable, as Apple appreciated about 20% in the two months leading to its earnings day. Other Big Tech companies experienced similar “sell the news” pressure after reporting robust financial results –think of Microsoft(MSFT), for example.</p><p><blockquote>托尼在开始他的论点时承认，在财报季之前，标准设定得太高了。这是合理的，因为苹果在财报日之前的两个月内升值了约20%。其他大型科技公司在报告强劲的财务业绩后也经历了类似的“卖出新闻”压力——例如微软（MSFT）。</blockquote></p><p> But the analyst’s concerns do not end here. According to him, there is a belief on the Street that things cannot get much better for the Cupertino company. Apple will start facing very tough comps starting now (see chart below) while dealing with supply chain challenges, and growth deceleration is all but a certainty at this point.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师的担忧并没有就此结束。据他说，街上有一种信念，认为库比蒂诺公司的情况不会变得更好。苹果从现在开始将面临非常严峻的竞争（见下图），同时应对供应链挑战，目前增长减速几乎是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst thinks that revenue should be lighter than expected going forward and the iPhone, weaker through the next year. Apple is certainly more about services today than it used to be, but the iPhone remains a crucial component of the ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师认为，未来一年的收入应该会低于预期，iPhone的收入也会低于预期。今天的苹果当然比过去更注重服务，但iPhone仍然是生态系统的重要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6090b256d9235de5597bfd07f68fa7\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's total revenue growth.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果总收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Sacconaghi also thinks that valuations have stretched too thin. Historically, AAPL has been valued at a discount to the market. Today, the stock trades eight turns higher on a trailing twelve-month P/E basis, at 29 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉先生还认为估值过低。从历史上看，AAPL的估值一直低于市场。如今，该股的市盈率较过去12个月的市盈率上涨了8倍，达到29倍。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, Bernstein’s analyst believes that Apple deserves to be valued higher than the S&P 500 now, given the growth in the higher-margin and recurring revenue service businesses. But he questions how much is too much. The analyst thinks that a fair earnings multiple would be around 25 times.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，Bernstein的分析师认为，鉴于利润率较高和经常性收入服务业务的增长，苹果现在的估值应该高于标普500。但他质疑多少才算太多。分析师认为合理的市盈率约为25倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Bernstein’s analyst raises a few important points. Apple stock rallied ahead of earnings, which may explain a period of share price consolidation, even after strong earnings. It is also undeniable that comps will be very hard to beat immediately before, during and just after the 2021 holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，伯恩斯坦的分析师提出了几个重要观点。苹果股价在财报公布前上涨，这可能解释了即使在财报强劲之后股价仍会出现一段时间的盘整。同样不可否认的是，在2021年假期之前、期间和之后，comps将很难被击败。</blockquote></p><p> But I am not too concerned about the other points that Toni has raised. On valuation,I side with Wedbush’s Dan Ives in thinking that relying on P/E alone can be tricky. Apple stock has probably been re-rated for higher growth (5G cycle, wearables, mixed reality, Apple Car) and heavier service mix leading to stickier revenues and better margins.</p><p><blockquote>但是我不太关心托尼提出的其他观点。在估值方面，我同意Wedbush的Dan Ives的观点，认为仅依靠市盈率可能会很棘手。苹果股票可能因更高的增长（5G周期、可穿戴设备、混合现实、苹果汽车）和更丰富的服务组合而被重新评级，从而带来更高的收入和更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> As AAPL hovers within two percentage points of its all-time high, I understand that investors should not expect outsized returns in the next 12 to 18 months. But I continue to find the stock a good buy-and-hold investment for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>由于AAPL徘徊在历史高点的两个百分点以内，我理解投资者不应期望在未来12至18个月内获得巨额回报。但我仍然认为该股票是一项不错的长期买入并持有投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Expert Sees Apple Stock Falling 10%<blockquote>这位专家预计苹果股价将下跌10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Expert Sees Apple Stock Falling 10%<blockquote>这位专家预计苹果股价将下跌10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 09:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares remain stuck in the mud following strong fiscal Q3 results. One analyst believes that things will get even worse for the stock before they get better.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的第三季度财报之后，苹果股价仍深陷泥潭。一位分析师认为，该股的情况在好转之前会变得更糟。</blockquote></p><p> Applereported very solid fiscal Q3 numberson July 27, zipping past Wall Street’s most optimistic estimates once again. But as Apple stock failed to get traction after earnings season, not all analysts seem convinced that robust past performance will translate into higher share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司7月27日公布了非常稳健的第三季度财报，再次超出了华尔街最乐观的预期。但由于苹果股票在财报季后未能获得关注，并非所有分析师似乎都相信过去的强劲表现会转化为更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Take Bernstein Toni Sacconaghi, for instance. The Apple skeptic, who has a hold rating on the stock and price target of $132 apiece,believes that AAPL has 10% downside from current levels. The Apple Maven explores the reasons why shares might dip this much.</p><p><blockquote>以伯恩斯坦·托尼·萨科纳吉为例。这位苹果怀疑论者对该股给予持有评级，目标价为每股132美元，他认为AAPL较当前水平还有10%的下跌空间。这位苹果专家探讨了股价可能下跌如此之多的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78920b004c2e6135cfe065c8940151d\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple logo sign from an Apple store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果商店的苹果标志。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The case for a 10% loss</b></p><p><blockquote><b>损失10%的案例</b></blockquote></p><p> Toni begins his argument by recognizing that the bar had been set too high ahead of earnings season. This is reasonable, as Apple appreciated about 20% in the two months leading to its earnings day. Other Big Tech companies experienced similar “sell the news” pressure after reporting robust financial results –think of Microsoft(MSFT), for example.</p><p><blockquote>托尼在开始他的论点时承认，在财报季之前，标准设定得太高了。这是合理的，因为苹果在财报日之前的两个月内升值了约20%。其他大型科技公司在报告强劲的财务业绩后也经历了类似的“卖出新闻”压力——例如微软（MSFT）。</blockquote></p><p> But the analyst’s concerns do not end here. According to him, there is a belief on the Street that things cannot get much better for the Cupertino company. Apple will start facing very tough comps starting now (see chart below) while dealing with supply chain challenges, and growth deceleration is all but a certainty at this point.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师的担忧并没有就此结束。据他说，街上有一种信念，认为库比蒂诺公司的情况不会变得更好。苹果从现在开始将面临非常严峻的竞争（见下图），同时应对供应链挑战，目前增长减速几乎是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst thinks that revenue should be lighter than expected going forward and the iPhone, weaker through the next year. Apple is certainly more about services today than it used to be, but the iPhone remains a crucial component of the ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师认为，未来一年的收入应该会低于预期，iPhone的收入也会低于预期。今天的苹果当然比过去更注重服务，但iPhone仍然是生态系统的重要组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b6090b256d9235de5597bfd07f68fa7\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's total revenue growth.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果总收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Mr. Sacconaghi also thinks that valuations have stretched too thin. Historically, AAPL has been valued at a discount to the market. Today, the stock trades eight turns higher on a trailing twelve-month P/E basis, at 29 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉先生还认为估值过低。从历史上看，AAPL的估值一直低于市场。如今，该股的市盈率较过去12个月的市盈率上涨了8倍，达到29倍。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, Bernstein’s analyst believes that Apple deserves to be valued higher than the S&P 500 now, given the growth in the higher-margin and recurring revenue service businesses. But he questions how much is too much. The analyst thinks that a fair earnings multiple would be around 25 times.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，Bernstein的分析师认为，鉴于利润率较高和经常性收入服务业务的增长，苹果现在的估值应该高于标普500。但他质疑多少才算太多。分析师认为合理的市盈率约为25倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Bernstein’s analyst raises a few important points. Apple stock rallied ahead of earnings, which may explain a period of share price consolidation, even after strong earnings. It is also undeniable that comps will be very hard to beat immediately before, during and just after the 2021 holiday season.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，伯恩斯坦的分析师提出了几个重要观点。苹果股价在财报公布前上涨，这可能解释了即使在财报强劲之后股价仍会出现一段时间的盘整。同样不可否认的是，在2021年假期之前、期间和之后，comps将很难被击败。</blockquote></p><p> But I am not too concerned about the other points that Toni has raised. On valuation,I side with Wedbush’s Dan Ives in thinking that relying on P/E alone can be tricky. Apple stock has probably been re-rated for higher growth (5G cycle, wearables, mixed reality, Apple Car) and heavier service mix leading to stickier revenues and better margins.</p><p><blockquote>但是我不太关心托尼提出的其他观点。在估值方面，我同意Wedbush的Dan Ives的观点，认为仅依靠市盈率可能会很棘手。苹果股票可能因更高的增长（5G周期、可穿戴设备、混合现实、苹果汽车）和更丰富的服务组合而被重新评级，从而带来更高的收入和更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p> As AAPL hovers within two percentage points of its all-time high, I understand that investors should not expect outsized returns in the next 12 to 18 months. But I continue to find the stock a good buy-and-hold investment for the long term.</p><p><blockquote>由于AAPL徘徊在历史高点的两个百分点以内，我理解投资者不应期望在未来12至18个月内获得巨额回报。但我仍然认为该股票是一项不错的长期买入并持有投资。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/this-expert-sees-apple-stock-falling-10\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/this-expert-sees-apple-stock-falling-10","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127725180","content_text":"Apple shares remain stuck in the mud following strong fiscal Q3 results. One analyst believes that things will get even worse for the stock before they get better.\nApplereported very solid fiscal Q3 numberson July 27, zipping past Wall Street’s most optimistic estimates once again. But as Apple stock failed to get traction after earnings season, not all analysts seem convinced that robust past performance will translate into higher share price.\nTake Bernstein Toni Sacconaghi, for instance. The Apple skeptic, who has a hold rating on the stock and price target of $132 apiece,believes that AAPL has 10% downside from current levels. The Apple Maven explores the reasons why shares might dip this much.\nFigure 1: Apple logo sign from an Apple store.\nThe case for a 10% loss\nToni begins his argument by recognizing that the bar had been set too high ahead of earnings season. This is reasonable, as Apple appreciated about 20% in the two months leading to its earnings day. Other Big Tech companies experienced similar “sell the news” pressure after reporting robust financial results –think of Microsoft(MSFT), for example.\nBut the analyst’s concerns do not end here. According to him, there is a belief on the Street that things cannot get much better for the Cupertino company. Apple will start facing very tough comps starting now (see chart below) while dealing with supply chain challenges, and growth deceleration is all but a certainty at this point.\nThe analyst thinks that revenue should be lighter than expected going forward and the iPhone, weaker through the next year. Apple is certainly more about services today than it used to be, but the iPhone remains a crucial component of the ecosystem.\nFigure 2: Apple's total revenue growth.\nMr. Sacconaghi also thinks that valuations have stretched too thin. Historically, AAPL has been valued at a discount to the market. Today, the stock trades eight turns higher on a trailing twelve-month P/E basis, at 29 times earnings.\nTo be clear, Bernstein’s analyst believes that Apple deserves to be valued higher than the S&P 500 now, given the growth in the higher-margin and recurring revenue service businesses. But he questions how much is too much. The analyst thinks that a fair earnings multiple would be around 25 times.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nIn my view, Bernstein’s analyst raises a few important points. Apple stock rallied ahead of earnings, which may explain a period of share price consolidation, even after strong earnings. It is also undeniable that comps will be very hard to beat immediately before, during and just after the 2021 holiday season.\nBut I am not too concerned about the other points that Toni has raised. On valuation,I side with Wedbush’s Dan Ives in thinking that relying on P/E alone can be tricky. Apple stock has probably been re-rated for higher growth (5G cycle, wearables, mixed reality, Apple Car) and heavier service mix leading to stickier revenues and better margins.\nAs AAPL hovers within two percentage points of its all-time high, I understand that investors should not expect outsized returns in the next 12 to 18 months. But I continue to find the stock a good buy-and-hold investment for the long term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":895,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":29,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/899798105"}
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