Hee_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-08-06

Hee

The S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，今年标普500可能再上涨 6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":899748767,"tweetId":"899748767","gmtCreate":1628217319859,"gmtModify":1633752500957,"author":{"id":3554935180693279,"idStr":"3554935180693279","authorId":3554935180693279,"authorIdStr":"3554935180693279","name":"chefbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75bcdd1d22221ef3b8f10c64b73ea420","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hee</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hee</body></html>","text":"Hee","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899748767","repostId":1188253337,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188253337","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628216944,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188253337?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 10:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，今年标普500可能再上涨 6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188253337","media":"Barrons","summary":"Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&P 500, saying corporate earnings have been t","content":"Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&amp;P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.<blockquote>高盛策略师上调了标普500的目标，称企业盈利过于强劲，不容忽视，债券收益率仍然顽固地处于低位。</blockquote> The investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.<blockquote>该投资银行现在表示，到年底，市场基准可能会达到 4700，高于之前的看涨期权 4300。这意味着该指数将比目前的水平上涨 6% 多一点。</blockquote> One of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations&nbsp;by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.<blockquote>更加乐观的前景背后的主要因素之一是第二季度盈利远高于预期，超出预期的幅度创历史新高。高盛策略师目前预计标普500公司今年的每股总收益将为 207 美元，高于之前预测的 193 美元。2022 年，他们预计每股收益总额为 212 美元，高于 202 美元。</blockquote> The forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.<blockquote>预计同比增长率分别为 45% 和 2%，因为被压抑的需求将推动今年的利润超过 2019 年的水平，2022 年增长将放缓。策略师们将企业税率的提高纳入了他们的2022年利润预测，略有降低。</blockquote> The other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because&nbsp;bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.<blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是，由于债券收益率仍然很低，估值可能仍然相当高。高盛预计该指数中的股票平均交易价格为 2022 年预期每股收益的 22.1 倍，略高于目前的 21 倍。低债券收益率降低了投资固定收益证券的吸引力，并增加了未来利润的现值。</blockquote> “Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.<blockquote>“高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫-科斯汀（David Kostin）写道：”低于预期的利率支撑了22倍的稳定远期市盈率。</blockquote> The strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.<blockquote>策略师将年底前 10 年期国债收益率预测从 1.9% 下调至 1.6%。尽管通胀预期上升，一些市场参与者认为购买债务是一项不错的交易，但收益率目前仍为 1.2%。</blockquote> Inflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were&nbsp;piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.<blockquote>我根据圣路易斯联储的数据，长期通胀率预计将略高于 2%，债券投资者通常要求高于通胀率的回报。但10年期国债收益率仍远低于预期通胀，即使在此期间一些投资者大量买入债务，导致价格上涨，收益率下降。</blockquote> Goldman’s 2021 target for the S&amp;P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.<blockquote>高盛2021年的标普500目标意味着股票的收益率将比投资者从债券中获得的1.6%高出3个百分点。这使得股票估值看起来合理。</blockquote> The current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.<blockquote>当前的金发姑娘环境——经济强劲，但债券收益率较低——让股市保持青睐。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，今年标普500可能再上涨 6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Can Rise Another 6% This Year, Goldman Sachs Says. Why It’s So Upbeat.<blockquote>高盛表示，今年标普500可能再上涨 6%。为什么这么乐观。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-08-06 10:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nGoldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&amp;P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.<blockquote>高盛策略师上调了标普500的目标，称企业盈利过于强劲，不容忽视，债券收益率仍然顽固地处于低位。</blockquote> The investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.<blockquote>该投资银行现在表示，到年底，市场基准可能会达到 4700，高于之前的看涨期权 4300。这意味着该指数将比目前的水平上涨 6% 多一点。</blockquote> One of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations&nbsp;by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.<blockquote>更加乐观的前景背后的主要因素之一是第二季度盈利远高于预期，超出预期的幅度创历史新高。高盛策略师目前预计标普500公司今年的每股总收益将为 207 美元，高于之前预测的 193 美元。2022 年，他们预计每股收益总额为 212 美元，高于 202 美元。</blockquote> The forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.<blockquote>预计同比增长率分别为 45% 和 2%，因为被压抑的需求将推动今年的利润超过 2019 年的水平，2022 年增长将放缓。策略师们将企业税率的提高纳入了他们的2022年利润预测，略有降低。</blockquote> The other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because&nbsp;bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.<blockquote>另一个关键考虑因素是，由于债券收益率仍然很低，估值可能仍然相当高。高盛预计该指数中的股票平均交易价格为 2022 年预期每股收益的 22.1 倍，略高于目前的 21 倍。低债券收益率降低了投资固定收益证券的吸引力，并增加了未来利润的现值。</blockquote> “Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.<blockquote>“高盛首席美国股票策略师大卫-科斯汀（David Kostin）写道：”低于预期的利率支撑了22倍的稳定远期市盈率。</blockquote> The strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.<blockquote>策略师将年底前 10 年期国债收益率预测从 1.9% 下调至 1.6%。尽管通胀预期上升，一些市场参与者认为购买债务是一项不错的交易，但收益率目前仍为 1.2%。</blockquote> Inflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were&nbsp;piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.<blockquote>我根据圣路易斯联储的数据，长期通胀率预计将略高于 2%，债券投资者通常要求高于通胀率的回报。但10年期国债收益率仍远低于预期通胀，即使在此期间一些投资者大量买入债务，导致价格上涨，收益率下降。</blockquote> Goldman’s 2021 target for the S&amp;P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.<blockquote>高盛2021年的标普500目标意味着股票的收益率将比投资者从债券中获得的1.6%高出3个百分点。这使得股票估值看起来合理。</blockquote> The current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.<blockquote>当前的金发姑娘环境——经济强劲，但债券收益率较低——让股市保持青睐。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sp-500-more-gains-goldman-sachs-51628182610?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-sp-500-more-gains-goldman-sachs-51628182610?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188253337","content_text":"Goldman Sachs strategists raised their target for the S&P 500, saying corporate earnings have been too strong to ignore and that bond yields are remaining stubbornly low.\nThe investment bank now says the market benchmark could reach 4700 by year-end, up from its previous call of 4300. That implies a gain of just over 6% from the index’s current level.\nOne of the main factors behind the more upbeat view is that second-quarter earnings are coming in far higher than expected, exceeding expectations by historically wide margins. The Goldman strategists now expect aggregate earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 will be $207 this year, up from a previous forecast of $193. For 2022, they are expecting aggregate EPS of $212, up from $202.\nThe forecasts represent respective year-over-year growth of 45% and 2%, as pent-up demand drives this year’s profits past 2019 levels, before growth moderates in 2022. The strategists incorporated a corporate tax-rate increase into their 2022 profit projection, reducing it slightly.\nThe other key consideration is that valuations could remain fairly high because bond yields remain low. Goldman sees stocks in the index trading at an average of 22.1 times the per-share earnings expected for the 2022, slightly higher than the current 21 times. Low bond yields reduce the appeal of investing in fixed-income securities, as well as increasing the current value of future profits.\n“Lower interest rates than expected support a stable forward P/E multiple of 22x,” wrote David Kostin, Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. equity strategist.\nThe strategists lowered their forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.6% from 1.9% by year-end. Yields are now at 1.2%, even as inflation expectations have risen and some market participants have seen buying the debt as a good trade.\nInflation is expected to be a bit over 2% for the long term, according to St. Louis Fed data, and bond investors usually demand a return greater than the rate of inflation. But the 10-year Treasury yield has remained far below expected inflation, even after a period during which some investors were piling into the debt, sending the price up and the yield down.\nGoldman’s 2021 target for the S&P 500 implies an earnings yield for stocks that would be 3 percentage points higher than what investors can get from bonds at 1.6%. And that makes stock valuations look reasonable.\nThe current Goldilocks environment—a sturdy economy, but with low bond yields—is keeping stocks in favor.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/899748767"}