Ew_SG
2021-08-06
What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?
ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会导致即将到来的投资者日更高的收入预期</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":893921827,"tweetId":"893921827","gmtCreate":1628231036869,"gmtModify":1633752381205,"author":{"id":4091249718205820,"idStr":"4091249718205820","authorId":4091249718205820,"authorIdStr":"4091249718205820","name":"Ew_SG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?</p></body></html>","text":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893921827","repostId":1123853854,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123853854","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628045254,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123853854?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 10:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会导致即将到来的投资者日更高的收入预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123853854","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was im","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.</li> <li>My medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.</li> <li>The stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 最近公布的 2021 年第二季度收益相当不错，订单量也令人印象深刻，并宣布了一项新的股票回购计划。</li><li>我对 EUV 销售的中期预期得到了公司的证实，这意味着 ASML 肯定会在即将到来的投资者日上调 2025 年的收入预期。</li><li>该股近几个月连续创下历史新高，但短期内仍有上涨空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>ASMLNV</b>(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.</p><p><blockquote><b>ASMLNV</b>(ASML) 仍然是长期投资者最好的半导体股票之一，即将到来的投资者日可能是股价上涨的重要催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> I have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.</p><p><blockquote>自从去年 3 月我发表了第一篇关于 ASML 的文章以来，我一直看好该公司，尽管我最近获利了结，因为这只股票是我持有的最大股票，我想稍微分散一下我的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该公司公布了与 2021 年第二季度相关的收益，继续显示出出色的经营业绩，由于该公司的乐观评论，我的增长预期被上调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度，ASML报告了强劲的收入和盈利增长，表明其运营势头仍然相当强劲。其收入同比增长 21%，达到 40 亿欧元，略低于预期，而净利润约为 10 亿欧元，每股收益为 2.52 欧元（同比增长 41%），超出卖方预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，ASML 的系统净销售额为 29 亿欧元，而安装的基础管理销售额为 11 亿欧元。基于安装的管理收入高于公司约 9 亿欧元的指导值，半导体行业的现状（芯片短缺）促使客户进行软件升级，以提高系统的生产力，这也是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一个季度，ASML 确认了 NineEUV 装置的收入，而上一季度为 7 台，尽管它已向客户交付了 10 台装置，并将在下一季度确认剩余装置的收入。EUV 收入占本季度系统销售额的 45%，而上一季度为 36%，表明 EUV 应该是其未来几个季度的主要增长来源。</blockquote></p><p> At this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>按照这个速度，与上一年相比，ASML 应该会增加 2020 年交付的 EUV 装置数量（交付了 31 台 EUV 装置），但如果交付量不增加一点，它可能会低于我今年交付约 38 台的预期未来两个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a48a69a3ba61e82df997470af977ae5\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的毛利率为 50.9%，高于之前的指导值，主要原因是软件升级出乎意料。其全年毛利率前景在 51-52% 之间，而 2020 年报告的毛利率为 48.6%，这为未来几个季度的盈利增长提供了另一个支撑。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers <b>TSMC</b>(TSM) and <b>Intel</b>(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.</p><p><blockquote>至于其净预订量，接近83亿欧元，其中49亿欧元与EUV系统有关，这反映了半导体行业目前存在的强劲需求。与上一季度（第一季度为 47 亿欧元）相比，这意味着预订量大幅增加，考虑到其主要客户最近的公告，这并不完全令人惊讶<b>台积电</b>（TSM）和<b>英特尔</b>（INTC）新工厂和未来几年增加资本支出计划，其中光刻机是关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from <b>Micron Technology</b>(MU) and <b>SK Hynix</b>(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，虽然 EUV 单元的大部分订单来自逻辑客户，但本季度 ASML 来自存储器客户的订单量最大，很可能来自<b>美光科技</b>（MU）和<b>SK海力士</b>（场外交易代码：HXSCF），这对于实现其客户群多元化非常重要，该客户群仍然相对集中于 EUV 装置。此外，投资者还应该意识到，ASML 不会在中国出售 EUV 装置，如果最终中美政治关系改善，这可能代表未来的另一个增长来源，尽管我认为现阶段不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，该公司上调了 2021 年指引，目前预计净收入增长约 35%（此前预期年收入增长 30%），毛利率在 51-52% 之间。ASML 还预计 EUV 收入同比增长约 35%，相当于约 39-40 台，因此该公司预计下半年交付的设备数量将高于前六个月，其推动提高其制造和供应链能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇文章中所讨论的，ASML 在增加 EUV 产量方面受到了一定的限制，并在未来几年为提高产量做出了一些努力。财报看涨期权证实了这一点，该公司表示预计 2022 年交付约 55 辆，2023 年将增至 60 多辆。</blockquote></p><p> I’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.</p><p><blockquote>我在之前的分析中预测，2022 年后，ASML 的 EUV 销量将每年增长约 5 台，到 2025 年将达到 70 台左右。这现在似乎是一个保守的估计，到 2025 年，ASML 可能会轻松超出我的预期，即 70 台 EUV 的收入约为 110 亿欧元，因为目前对其系统的需求显然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed697ade2047cb8381d563726e9a0864\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML and author’s calculations.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML 和作者的计算。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Returns & Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本回报和投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> Beyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>除了强劲的增长和盈利能力之外，股价上涨的另一个积极因素是其资本回报政策，因为 ASML 在股息和股票回购方面都有着非常好的历史。</blockquote></p><p> This trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这一趋势预计不会有太大变化，并且最近得到了加强。事实上，正如我在上一篇文章中预测的那样，该公司将股票回购计划增加到 90 亿欧元，将于 2023 年底完成，立即取代之前的计划。</blockquote></p><p> This is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>这比其之前原定于今年完成的 60 亿欧元股票回购计划大幅增加（ASML 完成了该计划的 52 亿欧元），表明 ASML 拥有稳固的财务状况，使其能够通过研发和资本支出投资于未来的业务，但也向股东返还大量资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84129202a0103e8396a273c5740e57a1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 正在交付令人印象深刻的业绩，并向股东返还更多资本，导致其股价在过去几个月中连续创下历史新高。尽管如此，仍有上升空间，这可能会在即将到来的投资者日变得更加明显，届时该公司将向投资者通报有关收入和盈利的未来情景。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，ASML 已安排在 2021 年 9 月 29 日举行投资者日，届时与 2018 年设定的目标相比，它肯定会提高中期目标。其目前的收入目标是到 2025 年年收入达到 150 亿至 240 亿欧元，考虑到 ASML 今年的收入应达到约 190 亿欧元，这一目标显然已经过时。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所说，我预计 ASML 将到 2025 年将其收入目标提高到 300 亿欧元左右或更高的中等水平，远高于目前卖方对 2025 年的共识预期（261 亿欧元）。因此，这个投资者日可能是短期内股价上涨的另一个催化剂，因为这一事件后卖方的预期很可能会增加。这可能是未来3-6个月股价上涨的重要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 报告了另一个良好的季度，在我看来，强劲的订单量是最令人印象深刻的因素。这显然是 ASML 未来几年业务的一个非常看好的因素，也是中期更高收入预期的良好支撑。我预计 ASML 将在即将到来的投资者日扩大其收入范围，这可能是未来几个月其股价的积极催化剂，因此仍然看好 ASML。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会导致即将到来的投资者日更高的收入预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day<blockquote>ASML：强劲的势头应该会导致即将到来的投资者日更高的收入预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 10:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>ASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.</li> <li>My medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.</li> <li>The stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 最近公布的 2021 年第二季度收益相当不错，订单量也令人印象深刻，并宣布了一项新的股票回购计划。</li><li>我对 EUV 销售的中期预期得到了公司的证实，这意味着 ASML 肯定会在即将到来的投资者日上调 2025 年的收入预期。</li><li>该股近几个月连续创下历史新高，但短期内仍有上涨空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>ASMLNV</b>(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.</p><p><blockquote><b>ASMLNV</b>(ASML) 仍然是长期投资者最好的半导体股票之一，即将到来的投资者日可能是股价上涨的重要催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> I have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.</p><p><blockquote>自从去年 3 月我发表了第一篇关于 ASML 的文章以来，我一直看好该公司，尽管我最近获利了结，因为这只股票是我持有的最大股票，我想稍微分散一下我的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.</p><p><blockquote>此后，该公司公布了与 2021 年第二季度相关的收益，继续显示出出色的经营业绩，由于该公司的乐观评论，我的增长预期被上调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收益</b></blockquote></p><p> In Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第二季度，ASML报告了强劲的收入和盈利增长，表明其运营势头仍然相当强劲。其收入同比增长 21%，达到 40 亿欧元，略低于预期，而净利润约为 10 亿欧元，每股收益为 2.52 欧元（同比增长 41%），超出卖方预期。</blockquote></p><p> During the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.</p><p><blockquote>本季度，ASML 的系统净销售额为 29 亿欧元，而安装的基础管理销售额为 11 亿欧元。基于安装的管理收入高于公司约 9 亿欧元的指导值，半导体行业的现状（芯片短缺）促使客户进行软件升级，以提高系统的生产力，这也是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一个季度，ASML 确认了 NineEUV 装置的收入，而上一季度为 7 台，尽管它已向客户交付了 10 台装置，并将在下一季度确认剩余装置的收入。EUV 收入占本季度系统销售额的 45%，而上一季度为 36%，表明 EUV 应该是其未来几个季度的主要增长来源。</blockquote></p><p> At this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>按照这个速度，与上一年相比，ASML 应该会增加 2020 年交付的 EUV 装置数量（交付了 31 台 EUV 装置），但如果交付量不增加一点，它可能会低于我今年交付约 38 台的预期未来两个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a48a69a3ba61e82df997470af977ae5\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"252\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的毛利率为 50.9%，高于之前的指导值，主要原因是软件升级出乎意料。其全年毛利率前景在 51-52% 之间，而 2020 年报告的毛利率为 48.6%，这为未来几个季度的盈利增长提供了另一个支撑。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers <b>TSMC</b>(TSM) and <b>Intel</b>(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.</p><p><blockquote>至于其净预订量，接近83亿欧元，其中49亿欧元与EUV系统有关，这反映了半导体行业目前存在的强劲需求。与上一季度（第一季度为 47 亿欧元）相比，这意味着预订量大幅增加，考虑到其主要客户最近的公告，这并不完全令人惊讶<b>台积电</b>（TSM）和<b>英特尔</b>（INTC）新工厂和未来几年增加资本支出计划，其中光刻机是关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from <b>Micron Technology</b>(MU) and <b>SK Hynix</b>(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，虽然 EUV 单元的大部分订单来自逻辑客户，但本季度 ASML 来自存储器客户的订单量最大，很可能来自<b>美光科技</b>（MU）和<b>SK海力士</b>（场外交易代码：HXSCF），这对于实现其客户群多元化非常重要，该客户群仍然相对集中于 EUV 装置。此外，投资者还应该意识到，ASML 不会在中国出售 EUV 装置，如果最终中美政治关系改善，这可能代表未来的另一个增长来源，尽管我认为现阶段不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，该公司上调了 2021 年指引，目前预计净收入增长约 35%（此前预期年收入增长 30%），毛利率在 51-52% 之间。ASML 还预计 EUV 收入同比增长约 35%，相当于约 39-40 台，因此该公司预计下半年交付的设备数量将高于前六个月，其推动提高其制造和供应链能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇文章中所讨论的，ASML 在增加 EUV 产量方面受到了一定的限制，并在未来几年为提高产量做出了一些努力。财报看涨期权证实了这一点，该公司表示预计 2022 年交付约 55 辆，2023 年将增至 60 多辆。</blockquote></p><p> I’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.</p><p><blockquote>我在之前的分析中预测，2022 年后，ASML 的 EUV 销量将每年增长约 5 台，到 2025 年将达到 70 台左右。这现在似乎是一个保守的估计，到 2025 年，ASML 可能会轻松超出我的预期，即 70 台 EUV 的收入约为 110 亿欧元，因为目前对其系统的需求显然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed697ade2047cb8381d563726e9a0864\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML and author’s calculations.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML 和作者的计算。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Returns & Investor Day</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本回报和投资者日</b></blockquote></p><p> Beyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>除了强劲的增长和盈利能力之外，股价上涨的另一个积极因素是其资本回报政策，因为 ASML 在股息和股票回购方面都有着非常好的历史。</blockquote></p><p> This trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这一趋势预计不会有太大变化，并且最近得到了加强。事实上，正如我在上一篇文章中预测的那样，该公司将股票回购计划增加到 90 亿欧元，将于 2023 年底完成，立即取代之前的计划。</blockquote></p><p> This is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>这比其之前原定于今年完成的 60 亿欧元股票回购计划大幅增加（ASML 完成了该计划的 52 亿欧元），表明 ASML 拥有稳固的财务状况，使其能够通过研发和资本支出投资于未来的业务，但也向股东返还大量资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84129202a0103e8396a273c5740e57a1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"223\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 正在交付令人印象深刻的业绩，并向股东返还更多资本，导致其股价在过去几个月中连续创下历史新高。尽管如此，仍有上升空间，这可能会在即将到来的投资者日变得更加明显，届时该公司将向投资者通报有关收入和盈利的未来情景。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，ASML 已安排在 2021 年 9 月 29 日举行投资者日，届时与 2018 年设定的目标相比，它肯定会提高中期目标。其目前的收入目标是到 2025 年年收入达到 150 亿至 240 亿欧元，考虑到 ASML 今年的收入应达到约 190 亿欧元，这一目标显然已经过时。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前的文章中所说，我预计 ASML 将到 2025 年将其收入目标提高到 300 亿欧元左右或更高的中等水平，远高于目前卖方对 2025 年的共识预期（261 亿欧元）。因此，这个投资者日可能是短期内股价上涨的另一个催化剂，因为这一事件后卖方的预期很可能会增加。这可能是未来3-6个月股价上涨的重要驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 报告了另一个良好的季度，在我看来，强劲的订单量是最令人印象深刻的因素。这显然是 ASML 未来几年业务的一个非常看好的因素，也是中期更高收入预期的良好支撑。我预计 ASML 将在即将到来的投资者日扩大其收入范围，这可能是未来几个月其股价的积极催化剂，因此仍然看好 ASML。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123853854","content_text":"Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.\nMy medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.\nThe stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nASMLNV(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.\nI have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.\nSince then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.\nRecent Earnings\nIn Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.\nDuring the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.\nIn this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.\nAt this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.\nSource: ASML.\nASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.\nRegarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers TSMC(TSM) and Intel(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.\nBeyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from Micron Technology(MU) and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.\nGoing forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.\nAs I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.\nI’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.\nSource: ASML and author’s calculations.\nCapital Returns & Investor Day\nBeyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.\nThis trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.\nThis is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.\nSource: ASML.\nASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.\nIndeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.\nAs I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.\nConclusion\nASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":40,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/893921827"}
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