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2021-08-11

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Fed's Barkin: U.S. "closing in" on taper, but could still take a few months<blockquote>美联储巴尔金：美国“接近”taper，但仍可能需要几个月</blockquote>

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I don’t know exactly when that will be. When we do close in on it I am very supportive of tapering and moving back toward a normal environment as quickly as the economy allows us,” Barkin said.<blockquote>“我们正在接近……我不知道具体什么时候。当我们确实接近时，我非常支持缩减规模，并在经济允许的情况下尽快回到正常环境，”巴尔金说。</blockquote> But he added he was not ready to commit to a timetable, arguing the Fed should stick to what it has promised: buying bonds until the labor market has more fully healed.<blockquote>但他补充说，他还没有准备好承诺时间表，认为美联储应该坚持其承诺：购买债券，直到劳动力市场更加完全愈合。</blockquote> It is credible to think “we will get there in the next few months,” said Barkin, who spoke amid a debate at the Fed in which some of his colleagues call for reducing the bond purchases perhaps as early as October.<blockquote>巴尔金在美联储的一场辩论中表示，“我们将在未来几个月内实现这一目标”的想法是可信的，他的一些同事在辩论中为最早可能在10月份减少债券购买看涨期权。</blockquote> “I would like to be at a normal level of participation in the asset markets and a normal level of (interest) rates,” Barkin said. But “I also think that as a committee, when you put out forward guidance you think about it carefully and then do your best to live to that.”<blockquote>巴尔金表示：“我希望资产市场的参与水平和（利率）正常水平。”但“我也认为，作为一个委员会，当你提出指导意见时，你会仔细考虑，然后尽最大努力做到这一点。”</blockquote> The Fed in December said it would wait for “substantial further progress” in the jobs recovery before reducing its asset purchases, a precursor to eventual interest rate hikes.<blockquote>美联储去年12月表示，将等待就业复苏取得“实质性进一步进展”，然后再减少资产购买，这是最终加息的前兆。</blockquote> INFLATION HAS ‘CRESTED’?<blockquote>通货膨胀已经“达到顶峰”？</blockquote> Where others have since introduced financial stability concerns or the need to prepare for rate hikes as part of the case for an earlier bond taper, Barkin said he remained focused on employment and not the calendar.<blockquote>此后，其他人提出了金融稳定担忧或为加息做准备的必要性，作为提前缩减债券规模的一部分，巴尔金表示，他仍然关注就业，而不是日历。</blockquote> In particular he wants to see the employment-to-population ratio rises perhaps another half a percentage point to around 59%, a benchmark he regards as a “holistic” measure of job market health. That could be met in short order or take months to climb higher.<blockquote>特别是，他希望看到就业人口比率再上升半个百分点，达到59%左右，他认为这是衡量就业市场健康状况的“整体”基准。这可能会在短时间内实现，也可能需要几个月的时间才能攀升。</blockquote> Barkin’s comments represent a middle ground that could help shape whatever consensus emerges about the Fed’s next steps. They also show the divergent views emerging among Fed officials about what data deserves emphasis as they plan their exit from emergency monetary policies set at the start of the pandemic.<blockquote>巴尔金的评论代表了一种中间立场，可能有助于形成有关美联储下一步措施的任何共识。它们还显示了美联储官员在计划退出疫情开始时制定的紧急货币政策时，对于哪些数据值得强调存在分歧。</blockquote> Some officials in recent days, for example, have said they feel the current year’s high rate of inflation, at around 3.5% by one of the Fed’s preferred measures, is arguably enough to meet the Fed’s current pledge to keep average inflation consistently at 2%, and perhaps slightly above it for a time.<blockquote>例如，一些官员最近几天表示，他们认为今年的高通胀率（根据美联储首选措施之一计算约为3.5%）足以实现美联储目前将平均通胀率持续保持在2%的承诺，并且可能会在一段时间内略高于该水平。</blockquote> Barkin said he was not ready to commit to that sort of stricter view of inflation averaging, but neither does he dismiss the risk that higher prices may persist.<blockquote>巴尔金表示，他还没有准备好接受这种更严格的通胀平均观点，但他也不排除物价可能持续上涨的风险。</blockquote> Similarly, he said it remains an open question whether this fall will see millions return to the job market as schools reopen and programs like enhanced unemployment insurance end, or whether the pandemic, and its now dominant Delta variant, have changed life and occupational choices to a degree that labor remains scarce.<blockquote>同样，他表示，随着学校重新开放和增强失业保险等计划的结束，今年秋天是否会有数百万人重返就业市场，或者疫情及其现在占主导地位的德尔塔变异毒株是否已经改变了生活和职业选择，这仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。劳动力仍然稀缺的程度。</blockquote> “If we don’t get a big increase of people going back into the work force when unemployment insurance expires, kids are back in school, summer is over, then I am going to have to ask myself some questions about my assumptions,” Barkin said.<blockquote>“如果当失业保险到期、孩子们重返校园、夏天结束时，重返劳动力市场的人数没有大幅增加，那么我将不得不问自己一些关于我的假设的问题，”巴尔金说。</blockquote> Likewise he feels inflation “seems to have crested,” and should revert in coming months. But how far and how fast are uncertain, and he noted that some of the dynamics, from supply chain disruptions to strained U.S. relations with China, could keep the pace of price increases higher for longer.<blockquote>同样，他认为通胀“似乎已经达到顶峰”，应该会在未来几个月内恢复。但程度和速度尚不确定，他指出，从供应链中断到美国与中国关系紧张等一些动态可能会使价格上涨速度在更长时间内保持较高水平。</blockquote> “Supply chain pressures are real. You have compensation pressures. I don’t know where it is going to go. There will be reversion in a number of places. But the world is not static,” he said. “It is not credible if Wal-Mart says screw it I am going to China because they could not get stuff off a boat,” given the global shortage of shipping containers.<blockquote>“供应链压力是真实存在的。你有薪酬压力。我不知道它会走向何方。很多地方都会出现逆转。但世界不是一成不变的，”他说。鉴于全球集装箱短缺，“如果沃尔玛说去他的，我要去中国，因为他们无法从船上卸货，这是不可信的”。</blockquote> That uncertainty is why Barkin says he is comfortable with the Fed’s current approach downplaying forecasts and waiting for the data to show what impacts of the pandemic persist, and which ones ease.<blockquote>这种不确定性就是为什么巴尔金表示，他对美联储目前淡化预测并等待数据显示大流行的哪些影响持续存在以及哪些影响缓解的做法感到满意。</blockquote> “On the employment side you have a hypothesis that you are going to bring a lot more back in. On inflation you have a hypothesis that these things are transitory,” he said. “I need to test both of these.”<blockquote>“在就业方面，你有一个假设，你将带来更多的回报。在通胀方面，你有一个假设，这些事情是暂时的，”他说。“这两个我都要测试一下。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Barkin: U.S. \"closing in\" on taper, but could still take a few months<blockquote>美联储巴尔金：美国“接近”taper，但仍可能需要几个月</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Barkin: U.S. \"closing in\" on taper, but could still take a few months<blockquote>美联储巴尔金：美国“接近”taper，但仍可能需要几个月</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nReuters2021-08-11 20:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nASHEVILLE, N.C., Aug 11 (Reuters) - It may take a few months more for the U.S. job market to recover enough that the Federal Reserve can reduce its crisis-era support for the economy, according to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin, who added a centrist voice to the open debate about when to trim the central bank’s $120 billion in monthly bond purchases.<blockquote>路透北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔8月11日-里士满联邦储备银行行长托马斯·巴尔金(Thomas Barkin)表示，美国就业市场可能还需要几个月的时间才能恢复到足以让美联储减少危机时期对经济的支持。他在关于何时削减央行每月1200亿美元债券购买规模的公开辩论中加入了中间派的声音。</blockquote> Several of Barkin’s colleagues have argued the purchases should be phased out fast to put monetary policy on a more normal footing, prepare for eventual interest rate increases as a guard against inflation, and temper housing and other asset price increases that may be boosted by the Fed’s bond buying.<blockquote>巴尔金的几位同事认为，应该迅速逐步取消购买，以使货币政策建立在更正常的基础上，为最终加息做好准备，以防范通胀，并抑制美联储可能推动的住房和其他资产价格上涨。债券购买。</blockquote> In an interview on Monday with Reuters, Barkin, a current voting member of the Fed’s policy setting committee, agreed the country was making progress toward the level of labor market progress the Fed has said it wants before scaling back the monthly purchases and eventually ending the program.<blockquote>美联储政策制定委员会现任投票成员巴尔金周一在接受路透社采访时同意，美国正在朝着美联储在缩减每月购买规模并最终结束该计划之前所说的劳动力市场进步水平取得进展。</blockquote> “We are closing in ... I don’t know exactly when that will be. When we do close in on it I am very supportive of tapering and moving back toward a normal environment as quickly as the economy allows us,” Barkin said.<blockquote>“我们正在接近……我不知道具体什么时候。当我们确实接近时，我非常支持缩减规模，并在经济允许的情况下尽快回到正常环境，”巴尔金说。</blockquote> But he added he was not ready to commit to a timetable, arguing the Fed should stick to what it has promised: buying bonds until the labor market has more fully healed.<blockquote>但他补充说，他还没有准备好承诺时间表，认为美联储应该坚持其承诺：购买债券，直到劳动力市场更加完全愈合。</blockquote> It is credible to think “we will get there in the next few months,” said Barkin, who spoke amid a debate at the Fed in which some of his colleagues call for reducing the bond purchases perhaps as early as October.<blockquote>巴尔金在美联储的一场辩论中表示，“我们将在未来几个月内实现这一目标”的想法是可信的，他的一些同事在辩论中为最早可能在10月份减少债券购买看涨期权。</blockquote> “I would like to be at a normal level of participation in the asset markets and a normal level of (interest) rates,” Barkin said. But “I also think that as a committee, when you put out forward guidance you think about it carefully and then do your best to live to that.”<blockquote>巴尔金表示：“我希望资产市场的参与水平和（利率）正常水平。”但“我也认为，作为一个委员会，当你提出指导意见时，你会仔细考虑，然后尽最大努力做到这一点。”</blockquote> The Fed in December said it would wait for “substantial further progress” in the jobs recovery before reducing its asset purchases, a precursor to eventual interest rate hikes.<blockquote>美联储去年12月表示，将等待就业复苏取得“实质性进一步进展”，然后再减少资产购买，这是最终加息的前兆。</blockquote> INFLATION HAS ‘CRESTED’?<blockquote>通货膨胀已经“达到顶峰”？</blockquote> Where others have since introduced financial stability concerns or the need to prepare for rate hikes as part of the case for an earlier bond taper, Barkin said he remained focused on employment and not the calendar.<blockquote>此后，其他人提出了金融稳定担忧或为加息做准备的必要性，作为提前缩减债券规模的一部分，巴尔金表示，他仍然关注就业，而不是日历。</blockquote> In particular he wants to see the employment-to-population ratio rises perhaps another half a percentage point to around 59%, a benchmark he regards as a “holistic” measure of job market health. That could be met in short order or take months to climb higher.<blockquote>特别是，他希望看到就业人口比率再上升半个百分点，达到59%左右，他认为这是衡量就业市场健康状况的“整体”基准。这可能会在短时间内实现，也可能需要几个月的时间才能攀升。</blockquote> Barkin’s comments represent a middle ground that could help shape whatever consensus emerges about the Fed’s next steps. They also show the divergent views emerging among Fed officials about what data deserves emphasis as they plan their exit from emergency monetary policies set at the start of the pandemic.<blockquote>巴尔金的评论代表了一种中间立场，可能有助于形成有关美联储下一步措施的任何共识。它们还显示了美联储官员在计划退出疫情开始时制定的紧急货币政策时，对于哪些数据值得强调存在分歧。</blockquote> Some officials in recent days, for example, have said they feel the current year’s high rate of inflation, at around 3.5% by one of the Fed’s preferred measures, is arguably enough to meet the Fed’s current pledge to keep average inflation consistently at 2%, and perhaps slightly above it for a time.<blockquote>例如，一些官员最近几天表示，他们认为今年的高通胀率（根据美联储首选措施之一计算约为3.5%）足以实现美联储目前将平均通胀率持续保持在2%的承诺，并且可能会在一段时间内略高于该水平。</blockquote> Barkin said he was not ready to commit to that sort of stricter view of inflation averaging, but neither does he dismiss the risk that higher prices may persist.<blockquote>巴尔金表示，他还没有准备好接受这种更严格的通胀平均观点，但他也不排除物价可能持续上涨的风险。</blockquote> Similarly, he said it remains an open question whether this fall will see millions return to the job market as schools reopen and programs like enhanced unemployment insurance end, or whether the pandemic, and its now dominant Delta variant, have changed life and occupational choices to a degree that labor remains scarce.<blockquote>同样，他表示，随着学校重新开放和增强失业保险等计划的结束，今年秋天是否会有数百万人重返就业市场，或者疫情及其现在占主导地位的德尔塔变异毒株是否已经改变了生活和职业选择，这仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。劳动力仍然稀缺的程度。</blockquote> “If we don’t get a big increase of people going back into the work force when unemployment insurance expires, kids are back in school, summer is over, then I am going to have to ask myself some questions about my assumptions,” Barkin said.<blockquote>“如果当失业保险到期、孩子们重返校园、夏天结束时，重返劳动力市场的人数没有大幅增加，那么我将不得不问自己一些关于我的假设的问题，”巴尔金说。</blockquote> Likewise he feels inflation “seems to have crested,” and should revert in coming months. But how far and how fast are uncertain, and he noted that some of the dynamics, from supply chain disruptions to strained U.S. relations with China, could keep the pace of price increases higher for longer.<blockquote>同样，他认为通胀“似乎已经达到顶峰”，应该会在未来几个月内恢复。但程度和速度尚不确定，他指出，从供应链中断到美国与中国关系紧张等一些动态可能会使价格上涨速度在更长时间内保持较高水平。</blockquote> “Supply chain pressures are real. You have compensation pressures. I don’t know where it is going to go. There will be reversion in a number of places. But the world is not static,” he said. “It is not credible if Wal-Mart says screw it I am going to China because they could not get stuff off a boat,” given the global shortage of shipping containers.<blockquote>“供应链压力是真实存在的。你有薪酬压力。我不知道它会走向何方。很多地方都会出现逆转。但世界不是一成不变的，”他说。鉴于全球集装箱短缺，“如果沃尔玛说去他的，我要去中国，因为他们无法从船上卸货，这是不可信的”。</blockquote> That uncertainty is why Barkin says he is comfortable with the Fed’s current approach downplaying forecasts and waiting for the data to show what impacts of the pandemic persist, and which ones ease.<blockquote>这种不确定性就是为什么巴尔金表示，他对美联储目前淡化预测并等待数据显示大流行的哪些影响持续存在以及哪些影响缓解的做法感到满意。</blockquote> “On the employment side you have a hypothesis that you are going to bring a lot more back in. On inflation you have a hypothesis that these things are transitory,” he said. “I need to test both of these.”<blockquote>“在就业方面，你有一个假设，你将带来更多的回报。在通胀方面，你有一个假设，这些事情是暂时的，”他说。“这两个我都要测试一下。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-barkin/exclusive-feds-barkin-u-s-closing-in-on-taper-but-could-still-take-a-few-months-idUSL1N2PI029\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-barkin/exclusive-feds-barkin-u-s-closing-in-on-taper-but-could-still-take-a-few-months-idUSL1N2PI029","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150646508","content_text":"ASHEVILLE, N.C., Aug 11 (Reuters) - It may take a few months more for the U.S. job market to recover enough that the Federal Reserve can reduce its crisis-era support for the economy, according to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin, who added a centrist voice to the open debate about when to trim the central bank’s $120 billion in monthly bond purchases.\nSeveral of Barkin’s colleagues have argued the purchases should be phased out fast to put monetary policy on a more normal footing, prepare for eventual interest rate increases as a guard against inflation, and temper housing and other asset price increases that may be boosted by the Fed’s bond buying.\nIn an interview on Monday with Reuters, Barkin, a current voting member of the Fed’s policy setting committee, agreed the country was making progress toward the level of labor market progress the Fed has said it wants before scaling back the monthly purchases and eventually ending the program.\n“We are closing in ... I don’t know exactly when that will be. When we do close in on it I am very supportive of tapering and moving back toward a normal environment as quickly as the economy allows us,” Barkin said.\nBut he added he was not ready to commit to a timetable, arguing the Fed should stick to what it has promised: buying bonds until the labor market has more fully healed.\nIt is credible to think “we will get there in the next few months,” said Barkin, who spoke amid a debate at the Fed in which some of his colleagues call for reducing the bond purchases perhaps as early as October.\n“I would like to be at a normal level of participation in the asset markets and a normal level of (interest) rates,” Barkin said. But “I also think that as a committee, when you put out forward guidance you think about it carefully and then do your best to live to that.”\nThe Fed in December said it would wait for “substantial further progress” in the jobs recovery before reducing its asset purchases, a precursor to eventual interest rate hikes.\nINFLATION HAS ‘CRESTED’?\nWhere others have since introduced financial stability concerns or the need to prepare for rate hikes as part of the case for an earlier bond taper, Barkin said he remained focused on employment and not the calendar.\nIn particular he wants to see the employment-to-population ratio rises perhaps another half a percentage point to around 59%, a benchmark he regards as a “holistic” measure of job market health. That could be met in short order or take months to climb higher.\nBarkin’s comments represent a middle ground that could help shape whatever consensus emerges about the Fed’s next steps. They also show the divergent views emerging among Fed officials about what data deserves emphasis as they plan their exit from emergency monetary policies set at the start of the pandemic.\nSome officials in recent days, for example, have said they feel the current year’s high rate of inflation, at around 3.5% by one of the Fed’s preferred measures, is arguably enough to meet the Fed’s current pledge to keep average inflation consistently at 2%, and perhaps slightly above it for a time.\nBarkin said he was not ready to commit to that sort of stricter view of inflation averaging, but neither does he dismiss the risk that higher prices may persist.\nSimilarly, he said it remains an open question whether this fall will see millions return to the job market as schools reopen and programs like enhanced unemployment insurance end, or whether the pandemic, and its now dominant Delta variant, have changed life and occupational choices to a degree that labor remains scarce.\n“If we don’t get a big increase of people going back into the work force when unemployment insurance expires, kids are back in school, summer is over, then I am going to have to ask myself some questions about my assumptions,” Barkin said.\nLikewise he feels inflation “seems to have crested,” and should revert in coming months. But how far and how fast are uncertain, and he noted that some of the dynamics, from supply chain disruptions to strained U.S. relations with China, could keep the pace of price increases higher for longer.\n“Supply chain pressures are real. You have compensation pressures. I don’t know where it is going to go. There will be reversion in a number of places. But the world is not static,” he said. “It is not credible if Wal-Mart says screw it I am going to China because they could not get stuff off a boat,” given the global shortage of shipping containers.\nThat uncertainty is why Barkin says he is comfortable with the Fed’s current approach downplaying forecasts and waiting for the data to show what impacts of the pandemic persist, and which ones ease.\n“On the employment side you have a hypothesis that you are going to bring a lot more back in. On inflation you have a hypothesis that these things are transitory,” he said. “I need to test both of these.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1377,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/892422802"}