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2021-09-09

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Companies are now issuing more stock than they did at top of the internet bubble and here’s why that matters<blockquote>公司现在发行的股票比互联网泡沫顶峰时还要多，这就是为什么这很重要</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":889587603,"tweetId":"889587603","gmtCreate":1631158824202,"gmtModify":1632884232216,"author":{"id":3581644759078400,"idStr":"3581644759078400","authorId":3581644759078400,"authorIdStr":"3581644759078400","name":"Marvin88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3dcf0e15ad150fb70b24cceb4262b6c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[开心]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[开心]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[开心]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889587603","repostId":1140374706,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140374706","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631157615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140374706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Companies are now issuing more stock than they did at top of the internet bubble and here’s why that matters<blockquote>公司现在发行的股票比互联网泡沫顶峰时还要多，这就是为什么这很重要</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140374706","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or ","content":"Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&amp;A activity <blockquote>如果创纪录的股票发行伴随着高水平的回购或并购活动，则不一定是悲观的</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f7568de316094fa33ca16baac11bdc7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto<blockquote>MarketWatch 照片插图/iStockphoto</blockquote> Stock market bulls are needlessly worrying about the recent record pace of new stock issuance. In fact, when viewed properly, the current pace of stock issuance is actually neutral for the stock market — if not slightly bullish.<blockquote>股市多头对最近创纪录的新股发行速度感到不必要的担忧。事实上，如果正确看待，目前的股票发行节奏实际上对股市来说是中性的——如果不是略微看涨的话。</blockquote> In other words, what appears to some to be a sign of a bubble about to burst may actually mean something closer to its opposite.<blockquote>换句话说，在一些人看来是泡沫即将破裂的迹象，实际上可能意味着更接近其相反的东西。</blockquote> Let’s start with the numbers. According to the Federal Reserve, new stock issuance has totaled $582 billion over the past four quarters from non-financial U.S. corporations. That’s far and away a record. The previous record came at the top of the late 1990s’ internet bubble, when the comparable total was $354 billion. The recent pace is more than 60% higher than the pace then.<blockquote>让我们从数字开始。根据美联储的数据，过去四个季度，美国非金融企业的新股发行总额为 5,820 亿美元。这远远创下了纪录。此前的纪录是在 20 世纪 90 年代末互联网泡沫鼎盛时期创下的，当时的可比总额为 3540 亿美元。最近的速度比当时的速度高了60%以上。</blockquote> Merely matching records set at the top of the internet bubble would be scary enough, much less breaking those records by 60%. And it makes sense that high levels of stock issuance would be bearish: companies have a better sense than the rest of us when their shares are overvalued, so it’s a warning sign when they are eagerly issuing new shares.<blockquote>仅仅追平互联网泡沫顶端创下的记录就足够可怕了，更不用说打破这些记录60%了。高水平的股票发行量会带来利空，这是有道理的： 当股票被高估时，公司比我们其他人更清楚，因此当它们急于发行新股时，这是一个警告信号。</blockquote> The reason record share issuance may not actually be bearish is that there has been a heavy volume of stock buybacks (or repurchases), as well as of mergers and acquisitions. Each of these other activities represents the opposite of new stock issuance, since they reduce the number of shares outstanding. Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&amp;A activity.<blockquote>创纪录的股票发行实际上可能并不悲观的原因是，出现了大量的股票回购（或回购）以及并购。这些其他活动中的每一项都与新股发行相反，因为它们减少了已发行股票的数量。如果创纪录的股票发行伴随着高水平的回购或并购活动，则不一定是看跌的。</blockquote> That means we need to focus on net, rather than gross, issuance. When we do that, a far different picture emerges. In fact, according to data from the Federal Reserve through the first quarter of 2021, as well as more recent data from TrimTabs, net issuance for non-financial corporations is negative — just as it’s been for many years now. That means that non-financial corporations on balance are retiring more shares than they are issuing.<blockquote>这意味着我们需要关注净发行量，而不是总发行量。当我们这样做时，一幅截然不同的画面就会出现。事实上，根据美联储截至 2021 年第一季度的数据以及 TrimTabs 的最新数据，非金融企业的净发行量为负--就像多年来一样。这意味着总体而言，非金融公司退出的股票多于其发行的股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91353b37c3edb42e77bf90089e6c6931\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The recent chart plots the Federal Reserve data. Notice that the last time there was positive net issuance was in early 2009, at the bottom of the bear market that accompanied the Global Financial Crisis. These two series came close to being in balance during the economic lockdown a year ago, but that was short lived and net issuance is now back solidly in negative territory.<blockquote>最近的图表绘制了美联储的数据。请注意，上一次出现正净发行量是在 2009 年初，当时正值全球金融危机带来的熊市底部。在一年前的经济封锁期间，这两个系列接近平衡，但这是短暂的，净发行量现在已稳步回到负区域。</blockquote> Is it a good sign for equities that net issuance is negative? Perhaps, according to a 2018 study in the Financial Analysts Journal entitled “Net Buybacks and the Seven Dwarfs.” The authors of that study found that net issuance explains the bulk of the difference in different countries’ stock returns over the last several decades.<blockquote>净发行量为负对股票来说是个好兆头吗？也许，根据2018年的一项研究金融分析师杂志标题为“净回购和七个小矮人该研究的作者发现，净发行量解释了过去几十年不同国家股票回报率差异的主要原因。</blockquote> Note carefully that the authors didn’t investigate whether net issuance has any explanatory power for the short term. To help fill in that gap, I measured the correlation between net issuance and the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;subsequent total real return. I focused on issuance over periods as short as the trailing quarter to as long as the trailing three years, and on the S&amp;P 500’s subsequent return over periods as short as one quarter and as long as three years. My database covered all years since 1988.<blockquote>请注意，作者并没有调查净发行量在短期内是否有任何解释力。为了帮助填补这一空白，我测量了净发行量与标普500随后的实际总回报率之间的相关性。我关注的是短至过去一个季度到长达过去三年的发行量，以及标普500随后在短至一个季度到长达三年的期限内的回报。我的数据库涵盖了1988年以来的所有年份。</blockquote> I came up empty in my search for statistically significant correlations, regardless of the length of the periods measured.<blockquote>无论测量的时间段长短，我在寻找具有统计学意义的相关性时一无所获。</blockquote> The conclusion I draw: It would be going too far to interpret recent net issuance trends as outright bullish for the stock market’s prospects. But the bulls at least can take some solace in knowing that the share issuance data are not screaming that a bubble is about to burst.<blockquote>我得出的结论是：如果将最近的净发行趋势解释为完全看好股市前景，那就太过分了。但多头至少可以得到一些安慰，因为他们知道股票发行数据并没有尖叫着泡沫即将破裂。</blockquote> Let me hasten to add that the stock market may nevertheless be forming a bubble. Net issuance is not the only indicator out there, needless to say. The point of this column is that share issuance is not an additional reason, above and beyond others, for believing that such a bubble is forming. But it is curious that some of those who believe a bubble is forming are relying on an argument that is so obviously misleading.<blockquote>让我赶紧补充一点，股市可能正在形成泡沫。不用说，净发行量并不是唯一的指标。本专栏的观点是，股票发行并不是相信这种泡沫正在形成的另一个原因。但奇怪的是，一些相信泡沫正在形成的人所依赖的论点如此明显具有误导性。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Companies are now issuing more stock than they did at top of the internet bubble and here’s why that matters<blockquote>公司现在发行的股票比互联网泡沫顶峰时还要多，这就是为什么这很重要</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCompanies are now issuing more stock than they did at top of the internet bubble and here’s why that matters<blockquote>公司现在发行的股票比互联网泡沫顶峰时还要多，这就是为什么这很重要</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-09 11:20\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRecord stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&amp;A activity <blockquote>如果创纪录的股票发行伴随着高水平的回购或并购活动，则不一定是悲观的</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f7568de316094fa33ca16baac11bdc7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto<blockquote>MarketWatch 照片插图/iStockphoto</blockquote> Stock market bulls are needlessly worrying about the recent record pace of new stock issuance. In fact, when viewed properly, the current pace of stock issuance is actually neutral for the stock market — if not slightly bullish.<blockquote>股市多头对最近创纪录的新股发行速度感到不必要的担忧。事实上，如果正确看待，目前的股票发行节奏实际上对股市来说是中性的——如果不是略微看涨的话。</blockquote> In other words, what appears to some to be a sign of a bubble about to burst may actually mean something closer to its opposite.<blockquote>换句话说，在一些人看来是泡沫即将破裂的迹象，实际上可能意味着更接近其相反的东西。</blockquote> Let’s start with the numbers. According to the Federal Reserve, new stock issuance has totaled $582 billion over the past four quarters from non-financial U.S. corporations. That’s far and away a record. The previous record came at the top of the late 1990s’ internet bubble, when the comparable total was $354 billion. The recent pace is more than 60% higher than the pace then.<blockquote>让我们从数字开始。根据美联储的数据，过去四个季度，美国非金融企业的新股发行总额为 5,820 亿美元。这远远创下了纪录。此前的纪录是在 20 世纪 90 年代末互联网泡沫鼎盛时期创下的，当时的可比总额为 3540 亿美元。最近的速度比当时的速度高了60%以上。</blockquote> Merely matching records set at the top of the internet bubble would be scary enough, much less breaking those records by 60%. And it makes sense that high levels of stock issuance would be bearish: companies have a better sense than the rest of us when their shares are overvalued, so it’s a warning sign when they are eagerly issuing new shares.<blockquote>仅仅追平互联网泡沫顶端创下的记录就足够可怕了，更不用说打破这些记录60%了。高水平的股票发行量会带来利空，这是有道理的： 当股票被高估时，公司比我们其他人更清楚，因此当它们急于发行新股时，这是一个警告信号。</blockquote> The reason record share issuance may not actually be bearish is that there has been a heavy volume of stock buybacks (or repurchases), as well as of mergers and acquisitions. Each of these other activities represents the opposite of new stock issuance, since they reduce the number of shares outstanding. Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&amp;A activity.<blockquote>创纪录的股票发行实际上可能并不悲观的原因是，出现了大量的股票回购（或回购）以及并购。这些其他活动中的每一项都与新股发行相反，因为它们减少了已发行股票的数量。如果创纪录的股票发行伴随着高水平的回购或并购活动，则不一定是看跌的。</blockquote> That means we need to focus on net, rather than gross, issuance. When we do that, a far different picture emerges. In fact, according to data from the Federal Reserve through the first quarter of 2021, as well as more recent data from TrimTabs, net issuance for non-financial corporations is negative — just as it’s been for many years now. That means that non-financial corporations on balance are retiring more shares than they are issuing.<blockquote>这意味着我们需要关注净发行量，而不是总发行量。当我们这样做时，一幅截然不同的画面就会出现。事实上，根据美联储截至 2021 年第一季度的数据以及 TrimTabs 的最新数据，非金融企业的净发行量为负--就像多年来一样。这意味着总体而言，非金融公司退出的股票多于其发行的股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91353b37c3edb42e77bf90089e6c6931\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The recent chart plots the Federal Reserve data. Notice that the last time there was positive net issuance was in early 2009, at the bottom of the bear market that accompanied the Global Financial Crisis. These two series came close to being in balance during the economic lockdown a year ago, but that was short lived and net issuance is now back solidly in negative territory.<blockquote>最近的图表绘制了美联储的数据。请注意，上一次出现正净发行量是在 2009 年初，当时正值全球金融危机带来的熊市底部。在一年前的经济封锁期间，这两个系列接近平衡，但这是短暂的，净发行量现在已稳步回到负区域。</blockquote> Is it a good sign for equities that net issuance is negative? Perhaps, according to a 2018 study in the Financial Analysts Journal entitled “Net Buybacks and the Seven Dwarfs.” The authors of that study found that net issuance explains the bulk of the difference in different countries’ stock returns over the last several decades.<blockquote>净发行量为负对股票来说是个好兆头吗？也许，根据2018年的一项研究金融分析师杂志标题为“净回购和七个小矮人该研究的作者发现，净发行量解释了过去几十年不同国家股票回报率差异的主要原因。</blockquote> Note carefully that the authors didn’t investigate whether net issuance has any explanatory power for the short term. To help fill in that gap, I measured the correlation between net issuance and the S&amp;P 500’s&nbsp;subsequent total real return. I focused on issuance over periods as short as the trailing quarter to as long as the trailing three years, and on the S&amp;P 500’s subsequent return over periods as short as one quarter and as long as three years. My database covered all years since 1988.<blockquote>请注意，作者并没有调查净发行量在短期内是否有任何解释力。为了帮助填补这一空白，我测量了净发行量与标普500随后的实际总回报率之间的相关性。我关注的是短至过去一个季度到长达过去三年的发行量，以及标普500随后在短至一个季度到长达三年的期限内的回报。我的数据库涵盖了1988年以来的所有年份。</blockquote> I came up empty in my search for statistically significant correlations, regardless of the length of the periods measured.<blockquote>无论测量的时间段长短，我在寻找具有统计学意义的相关性时一无所获。</blockquote> The conclusion I draw: It would be going too far to interpret recent net issuance trends as outright bullish for the stock market’s prospects. But the bulls at least can take some solace in knowing that the share issuance data are not screaming that a bubble is about to burst.<blockquote>我得出的结论是：如果将最近的净发行趋势解释为完全看好股市前景，那就太过分了。但多头至少可以得到一些安慰，因为他们知道股票发行数据并没有尖叫着泡沫即将破裂。</blockquote> Let me hasten to add that the stock market may nevertheless be forming a bubble. Net issuance is not the only indicator out there, needless to say. The point of this column is that share issuance is not an additional reason, above and beyond others, for believing that such a bubble is forming. But it is curious that some of those who believe a bubble is forming are relying on an argument that is so obviously misleading.<blockquote>让我赶紧补充一点，股市可能正在形成泡沫。不用说，净发行量并不是唯一的指标。本专栏的观点是，股票发行并不是相信这种泡沫正在形成的另一个原因。但奇怪的是，一些相信泡沫正在形成的人所依赖的论点如此明显具有误导性。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/companies-are-issuing-more-stock-than-they-did-at-top-of-the-internet-bubble-and-heres-why-that-matters-11631052165?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/companies-are-issuing-more-stock-than-they-did-at-top-of-the-internet-bubble-and-heres-why-that-matters-11631052165?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140374706","content_text":"Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&A activity \nMarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto\n\n\nStock market bulls are needlessly worrying about the recent record pace of new stock issuance. In fact, when viewed properly, the current pace of stock issuance is actually neutral for the stock market — if not slightly bullish.\nIn other words, what appears to some to be a sign of a bubble about to burst may actually mean something closer to its opposite.\nLet’s start with the numbers. According to the Federal Reserve, new stock issuance has totaled $582 billion over the past four quarters from non-financial U.S. corporations. That’s far and away a record. The previous record came at the top of the late 1990s’ internet bubble, when the comparable total was $354 billion. The recent pace is more than 60% higher than the pace then.\nMerely matching records set at the top of the internet bubble would be scary enough, much less breaking those records by 60%. And it makes sense that high levels of stock issuance would be bearish: companies have a better sense than the rest of us when their shares are overvalued, so it’s a warning sign when they are eagerly issuing new shares.\nThe reason record share issuance may not actually be bearish is that there has been a heavy volume of stock buybacks (or repurchases), as well as of mergers and acquisitions. Each of these other activities represents the opposite of new stock issuance, since they reduce the number of shares outstanding. Record stock issuance is not necessarily bearish if it is accompanied by high levels of buybacks or M&A activity.\n\nThat means we need to focus on net, rather than gross, issuance. When we do that, a far different picture emerges. In fact, according to data from the Federal Reserve through the first quarter of 2021, as well as more recent data from TrimTabs, net issuance for non-financial corporations is negative — just as it’s been for many years now. That means that non-financial corporations on balance are retiring more shares than they are issuing.\n\n\n\nThe recent chart plots the Federal Reserve data. Notice that the last time there was positive net issuance was in early 2009, at the bottom of the bear market that accompanied the Global Financial Crisis. These two series came close to being in balance during the economic lockdown a year ago, but that was short lived and net issuance is now back solidly in negative territory.\nIs it a good sign for equities that net issuance is negative? Perhaps, according to a 2018 study in the Financial Analysts Journal entitled “Net Buybacks and the Seven Dwarfs.” The authors of that study found that net issuance explains the bulk of the difference in different countries’ stock returns over the last several decades.\n\nNote carefully that the authors didn’t investigate whether net issuance has any explanatory power for the short term. To help fill in that gap, I measured the correlation between net issuance and the S&P 500’s subsequent total real return. I focused on issuance over periods as short as the trailing quarter to as long as the trailing three years, and on the S&P 500’s subsequent return over periods as short as one quarter and as long as three years. My database covered all years since 1988.\n\nI came up empty in my search for statistically significant correlations, regardless of the length of the periods measured.\nThe conclusion I draw: It would be going too far to interpret recent net issuance trends as outright bullish for the stock market’s prospects. But the bulls at least can take some solace in knowing that the share issuance data are not screaming that a bubble is about to burst.\nLet me hasten to add that the stock market may nevertheless be forming a bubble. Net issuance is not the only indicator out there, needless to say. The point of this column is that share issuance is not an additional reason, above and beyond others, for believing that such a bubble is forming. But it is curious that some of those who believe a bubble is forming are relying on an argument that is so obviously misleading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2499,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889587603"}