Donokane
2021-09-09
"Chipping" all the way to the bank
Micron Is Too Cheap To Ignore<blockquote>美光太便宜了，不容忽视</blockquote>
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The company is focused on the memory and storage products segment, through its DRAM, NAND and NOR technologies. By technology, DRAM is by far the most important one, being responsible for more than two thirds of Micron's revenues.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技是世界上最大的半导体公司之一，去年的收入超过210亿美元。该公司通过其DRAM、NAND和NOR技术专注于内存和存储产品领域。就技术而言，DRAM是迄今为止最重要的技术，占美光收入的三分之二以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be545bd7d6fd523fcb30ebd5c8171d1\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Micron.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：美光。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Micron was founded in 1978 and is nowadays present in some 17 countries around the world and has 13 manufacturing sites and 14 customer labs in the U.S., China Mainland, Taiwan and other areas. It is traded on the NASDAQ and has a market value of about $83 billion.</p><p><blockquote>美光成立于1978年，目前业务遍及全球约17个国家，在美国、中国大陆、台湾和其他地区拥有13个制造基地和14个客户实验室。它在纳斯达克交易，市值约为830亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The semiconductor industry faces fierce competition and this means that for Micron to remain competitive it must invest continuously in new products and technologies to differentiate itself from other players. Its closest competitors are <b>Samsung Electronics</b>(OTC:SSNLF) and SK Hynix, two companies based in South Korea, thus manufacturing costs is also an important factor for Micron to be competitive in the marketplace. According to Statista, Samsung is the largest player in this market segment, followed by SK and Micron, while other players have much smaller market shares.</p><p><blockquote>半导体行业面临激烈的竞争，这意味着美光科技要保持竞争力，必须不断投资于新产品和技术，以使自己与其他参与者区分开来。它最接近的竞争对手是<b>三星电子</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）和SK海力士这两家总部位于韩国的公司，因此制造成本也是美光在市场上具有竞争力的重要因素。根据Statista的数据，三星是该细分市场的最大参与者，其次是SK和美光，而其他参与者的市场份额要小得多。</blockquote></p><p> Even though the semiconductor industry is generally considered to be a cyclical industry, its prospects are quite good due to new technologies that are expected to boost demand over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体行业通常被认为是一个周期性行业，但由于新技术有望在未来几年提振需求，其前景相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长</b></blockquote></p><p> As I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前关于“ASML：一家适合长期投资者的出色公司”的文章中所分析的那样，半导体行业具有非常好的长期增长前景，因为有几个创新来源应该会支持未来许多年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Modern technology is constantly changing and new developments are constantly pushing for new applications of microchips, including memory and storage. The volume of data is expected to grow strongly over the coming years, through technological advances like 5G, Big Data, autonomous vehicles, the internet of things, beyond others. This backdrop is very positive for Micron's growth, being specifically exposed to secular growth trends of AI, 5G, machine learning and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>现代技术不断变化，新的发展不断推动微芯片的新应用，包括存储器和存储。通过5G、大数据、自动驾驶汽车、物联网等技术进步，预计未来几年数据量将强劲增长。这种背景对美光科技的增长非常积极，特别是受到人工智能、5G、机器学习和自动驾驶汽车的长期增长趋势的影响。</blockquote></p><p> This means that Micron is directly exposed to several growth sources over the coming years and its total addressable market is expected to increase substantially over the next decade. This secular growth trend was even accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic, with demand for gaming, laptops and other products increasing rapidly, being a strong cyclical support for Micron's growth beyond its secular growth tailwinds.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着美光科技在未来几年将直接面临多种增长来源，预计其总目标市场将在未来十年大幅增长。冠状病毒大流行甚至加速了这种长期增长趋势，对游戏、笔记本电脑和其他产品的需求迅速增加，为美光科技的增长提供了强大的周期性支持，超出了其长期增长的顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to MarketWatch, the semiconductor memory market is expected to be around $134 in annual sales by 2027, a compounded annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2021-27. Even though this is a positive backdrop, the overall semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% during 2021-28, thus the memory market may not be the best sub-sector to be exposed to secular growth trends supporting this industry over the coming years. However, Micron has a higher estimate of the total available market for memory and storage by 2024, thus growth opportunities for the company may be higher than what the market is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketWatch的数据，预计到2027年，半导体存储器市场的年销售额将在134美元左右，2021-27年的复合年增长率为5.9%。尽管这是一个积极的背景，但整个半导体行业预计在2021-28年期间将以8.6%的CAGR增长，因此内存市场可能不是未来几年支持该行业的长期增长趋势的最佳子行业。然而，美光对2024年内存和存储总可用市场的估计更高，因此该公司的增长机会可能高于市场目前的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58b60021e186ca242433f7923d10fbb7\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Micron.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：美光。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Despite good growth prospects over the coming years, the memory and storage segment is usually considered more cyclical than other segments and costumers are structurally reluctant to enter into long-term, fixed-price commitments. This means that Micron is highly exposed to the supply/demand situation in the market and its pricing power is somewhat low over the medium to long term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来几年增长前景良好，但内存和存储领域通常被认为比其他领域更具周期性，客户在结构上不愿意做出长期、固定价格的承诺。这意味着美光科技很容易受到市场供需状况的影响，从中长期来看，其定价能力较低。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, the company also accepts orders that may be adjusted in terms of pricing by the time of shipment, showing that even in the short-term its pricing power is rather low. This is also why the company does not consider its order backlog to be a good indicator of future sales, which means that forecasting Micron's revenues and earnings in a time frame of 3-5 years is a tough exercise that most likely will be incorrect compared to the actual numbers the company will report in the succeeding periods.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，该公司还接受发货时可能会调整定价的订单，这表明即使在短期内其定价能力也相当低。这也是为什么该公司不认为其积压订单是未来销售的良好指标，这意味着预测美光科技在3-5年内的收入和收益是一项艰巨的任务，与相比很可能是不正确的。公司将在后续期间报告的实际数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its financial performance, Micron has a mixed history showing that its business is clearly cyclical and can report strong swings on an annual basis. Indeed, even though Micron's revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% from fiscal years (FY) 2016-20 (which end s in September), its revenues declined by 23% in FY 2019 and 8.4% in FY 2020. Moreover, its net income is also highly volatile, reporting $14 billion in FY 2018 and only $2.7 billion in FY 2020.</p><p><blockquote>关于其财务业绩，美光科技的历史好坏参半，表明其业务具有明显的周期性，并且每年都会出现强劲的波动。事实上，尽管美光科技的收入较2016-20财年（9月结束）以17.4%的复合年增长率(CAGR)增长，但其收入在2019财年下降了23%，在2020财年下降了8.4%。此外，其净利润也波动很大，2018财年为140亿美元，2020财年仅为27亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that Micron is highly exposed to the ups and downs of the market, which can change quite dramatically in a short period of time. This can also be seen by Micron's long-term trend of its EBITDA margin, which is highly volatile even though it has consistently improved over the years.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，美光科技很容易受到市场波动的影响，而市场波动可能在短时间内发生相当剧烈的变化。这也可以从美光的EBITDA利润率的长期趋势中看出，尽管多年来一直在改善，但该利润率波动很大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459155c1caccc19e677c71474158f979\" tg-width=\"291\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Micron.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：美光。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> More recently, Micron's business has been on a better operating momentum, to some extent driven by the pandemic, with demand for consumer electronics increasing substantially across the globe, which was a strong tailwind for the memory and storage chip market, while other segments reported lower demand, such as automotive.</p><p><blockquote>最近，美光科技的业务在一定程度上受到疫情的推动，全球对消费电子产品的需求大幅增长，这对内存和存储芯片市场来说是一个强劲的推动力，而其他细分市场则报告较低需求，例如汽车。</blockquote></p><p> This mixed backdrop resulted in lower revenues during the FY 2020, due to a large extent from lower DRAM prices that impacted negatively Micron's revenues and gross margin, Its revenues amounted to $21.4 billion (-8.4% YoY) and its gross margin declined to 31% (vs. 46% in FY 2019). Sales of NAND products increased during the year, boosted by data center customers, but were not enough to offset weakness in the DRAM segment. Regarding costs and R&D, Micron has a good discipline and these costs did not increase significantly compared to the previous year. Micron's bottom-line declined by 57% YoY to $2.7 billion, and its EPS was $2.37 (vs. $5.51 per share in FY 2019).</p><p><blockquote>这种复杂的背景导致2020财年收入下降，这在很大程度上是由于DRAM价格下降对美光的收入和毛利率产生了负面影响，其收入达214亿美元（同比-8.4%），毛利率下降至31%（2019财年为46%）。在数据中心客户的推动下，NAND产品的销售额在年内有所增长，但不足以抵消DRAM细分市场的疲软。关于成本和研发，美光有很好的纪律性，这些成本与前一年相比没有明显增加。美光科技的净利润同比下降57%至27亿美元，每股收益为2.37美元（2019财年为每股5.51美元）。</blockquote></p><p> During the first nine months of FY 2021, Micron has reported a very strong operating momentum which has enabled it to offset the loss of Huawei as a costumer due to U.S. sanctions (it represented about 12% of Micron's revenues in FY 2019).</p><p><blockquote>在2021财年的前九个月，美光科技报告了非常强劲的运营势头，这使其能够抵消华为因美国制裁而失去的客户（华为约占美光科技2019财年收入的12%）。</blockquote></p><p> In the third quarter of FY 2021, its revenues were 7.4 billion (+36% YoY) boosted by DRAM that reported revenue growth of 52% YoY, due to higher volumes and prices, while NAND's revenues were up by 9% YoY. Its net income more than double from the third quarter of FY 2020, to $2.17 billion, and its net profit margin improved to 29% (vs. 17% in the same quarter of last year). Its free cash flow was $1.5 billion in the quarter, a very good level of cash flow generation compared to accounting profit.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年第三季度，DRAM的收入为74亿美元（同比增长36%），由于销量和价格上涨，DRAM的收入同比增长52%，而NAND的收入同比增长9%。其净利润较2020财年第三季度增长了一倍多，达到21.7亿美元，净利润率提高至29%（去年同期为17%）。该季度的自由现金流为15亿美元，与会计利润相比，现金流生成水平非常好。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, Micron is very positive about the demand outlook in the memory segment, supported by data center costumers and new product developments that should support volume growth in the coming years. On the other hand, there is some negative sentiment in the market about future memory prices, which would be negative for the company's revenue growth in the coming quarters. For instance, a <b>Morgan Stanley</b>(MS) analyst has recently downgraded Micron because he expect s DRAM prices to be in a late stage cycle has the supply-demand situation is becoming more balanced.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，美光科技对内存领域的需求前景非常乐观，这得益于数据中心客户和新产品开发，这将支持未来几年的销量增长。另一方面，市场对未来内存价格存在一些负面情绪，这将不利于公司未来几个季度的收入增长。例如，a<b>摩根士丹利</b>(MS)分析师最近下调了美光的评级，因为他预计随着供需形势变得更加平衡，s DRAM价格将处于周期的后期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, according to analysts' estimates, Micron should report higher revenues in FY 2022 and FY 2023 (to $36.7 billion and $40 billion, respectively) and the business is only expected to slow down thereafter. Its bottom-line is estimated to go up by 86% YoY in FY 2022, but to drop in the following years, which show to some extent that Micron's current strong growth may not be sustainable over the medium term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，根据分析师的估计，美光科技在2022财年和2023财年的收入应该会更高（分别达到367亿美元和400亿美元），预计此后业务只会放缓。预计2022财年其利润将同比增长86%，但随后几年将下降，这在一定程度上表明美光科技目前的强劲增长在中期内可能无法持续。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its balance sheet, Micron has a good situation, given that its net cash position was around $3.1 billion at the end of last quarter, thus its financial profile is strong and it can return excess capital to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>关于其资产负债表，美光科技的情况良好，因为其上季度末的净现金头寸约为31亿美元，因此其财务状况强劲，可以向股东返还多余的资本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, Micron has performed historically share buybacks, but more recently decided to start distributing a dividend, which shows some confidence about the company's future business prospects and its ability to return capital to shareholders in a recurring basis. Its quarterly dividend was set at only $0.10 per share, which lead to a modest dividend yield, but the goal is to gradually increase the dividend over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，美光科技历史上曾进行过股票回购，但最近决定开始分配股息，这表明人们对公司未来的业务前景及其定期向股东返还资本的能力充满信心。其季度股息仅定为每股0.10美元，这导致股息收益率适中，但目标是在未来几年内逐步增加股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron is reporting strong growth and medium-term prospects are good due to several growth trends of AI, 5G and others. However, the memory market is highly cyclical and there are some worries that its current strong trend may not last much.</p><p><blockquote>由于人工智能、5G等的几个增长趋势，美光科技报告强劲增长，中期前景良好。然而，内存市场具有很强的周期性，有人担心其目前的强劲趋势可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> The semiconductor industry has secular long-term growth prospects, but in my opinion the best way to invest in this theme is through companies that have some sort of competitive advantage and pricing power, such as <b>ASML</b>(ASML) that has a monopoly in the EUV technology. Micron does not fit that criteria and for that reason I was inclined to avoid it.</p><p><blockquote>半导体行业具有长期增长前景，但在我看来，投资该主题的最佳方式是通过具有某种竞争优势和定价能力的公司，例如<b>ASML</b>（ASML）在EUV技术上拥有垄断地位。美光不符合这个标准，因此我倾向于避免它。</blockquote></p><p> However, I find its valuation as ridiculously cheap, given that based on 2022 and 2023 earnings it is currently trading at less than 7x forward earnings. This is extremely undemanding and even if earnings estimates come down somewhat, Micron would still be trading at a much lower valuation than its peers and its own historical average (about 11.5x over the past five years).</p><p><blockquote>然而，我发现它的估值低得离谱，因为根据2022年和2023年的收益，目前它的交易价格还不到远期收益的7倍。这要求极低，即使盈利预期有所下降，美光科技的估值仍将远低于同行及其历史平均水平（过去五年约为11.5倍）。</blockquote></p><p> This means that even though Micron is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry (my investment approach is to buy mainly secular growth companies), its valuation is too much cheap to ignore and upside potential looks good if pricing in the memory market remains strong. I have bought a small stake in Micron (about 3% of my portfolio) and intend to hold it for a while, but if pricing in the memory market starts to show weakness I most likely will sell my stake.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，尽管美光是半导体行业内的周期性公司（我的投资方法是主要购买长期增长型公司），但其估值太便宜，不容忽视，如果内存市场的定价保持强劲，上涨潜力看起来不错。我已经购买了美光科技的少量股份（约占我投资组合的3%）并打算持有一段时间，但如果内存市场的定价开始显示疲软，我很可能会出售我的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Is Too Cheap To Ignore<blockquote>美光太便宜了，不容忽视</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Is Too Cheap To Ignore<blockquote>美光太便宜了，不容忽视</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 11:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>I invest mainly in secular growth companies and would, therefore, avoid Micron because the memory and storage segment is highly cyclical.</li> <li>Micron is reporting strong growth in the past few quarters and this trend is expected to remain positive over the next couple of years.</li> <li>Its valuation at less than 7x forward earnings is very undemanding and makes it a good cyclical play in the semiconductor industry.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6943b055b8a3f717a6e1f6c038c065\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我主要投资于长期增长型公司，因此会避开美光科技，因为内存和存储领域具有高度周期性。</li><li>美光科技报告称，过去几个季度增长强劲，预计这一趋势将在未来几年保持积极势头。</li><li>其预期市盈率不到7倍，要求非常低，使其成为半导体行业中良好的周期性股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b>(MU) is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry and I prefer to invest in secular growth companies, but its valuation is so cheap that it makes a very compelling investment right now.</p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b>(MU)是半导体行业中的周期性公司，我更喜欢投资长期增长型公司，但它的估值非常便宜，目前是一项非常引人注目的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Company Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, measured by its more than $21 billion in revenues generated last year. The company is focused on the memory and storage products segment, through its DRAM, NAND and NOR technologies. By technology, DRAM is by far the most important one, being responsible for more than two thirds of Micron's revenues.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技是世界上最大的半导体公司之一，去年的收入超过210亿美元。该公司通过其DRAM、NAND和NOR技术专注于内存和存储产品领域。就技术而言，DRAM是迄今为止最重要的技术，占美光收入的三分之二以上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be545bd7d6fd523fcb30ebd5c8171d1\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Micron.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：美光。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Micron was founded in 1978 and is nowadays present in some 17 countries around the world and has 13 manufacturing sites and 14 customer labs in the U.S., China Mainland, Taiwan and other areas. It is traded on the NASDAQ and has a market value of about $83 billion.</p><p><blockquote>美光成立于1978年，目前业务遍及全球约17个国家，在美国、中国大陆、台湾和其他地区拥有13个制造基地和14个客户实验室。它在纳斯达克交易，市值约为830亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The semiconductor industry faces fierce competition and this means that for Micron to remain competitive it must invest continuously in new products and technologies to differentiate itself from other players. Its closest competitors are <b>Samsung Electronics</b>(OTC:SSNLF) and SK Hynix, two companies based in South Korea, thus manufacturing costs is also an important factor for Micron to be competitive in the marketplace. According to Statista, Samsung is the largest player in this market segment, followed by SK and Micron, while other players have much smaller market shares.</p><p><blockquote>半导体行业面临激烈的竞争，这意味着美光科技要保持竞争力，必须不断投资于新产品和技术，以使自己与其他参与者区分开来。它最接近的竞争对手是<b>三星电子</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）和SK海力士这两家总部位于韩国的公司，因此制造成本也是美光在市场上具有竞争力的重要因素。根据Statista的数据，三星是该细分市场的最大参与者，其次是SK和美光，而其他参与者的市场份额要小得多。</blockquote></p><p> Even though the semiconductor industry is generally considered to be a cyclical industry, its prospects are quite good due to new technologies that are expected to boost demand over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体行业通常被认为是一个周期性行业，但由于新技术有望在未来几年提振需求，其前景相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长</b></blockquote></p><p> As I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在之前关于“ASML：一家适合长期投资者的出色公司”的文章中所分析的那样，半导体行业具有非常好的长期增长前景，因为有几个创新来源应该会支持未来许多年的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Modern technology is constantly changing and new developments are constantly pushing for new applications of microchips, including memory and storage. The volume of data is expected to grow strongly over the coming years, through technological advances like 5G, Big Data, autonomous vehicles, the internet of things, beyond others. This backdrop is very positive for Micron's growth, being specifically exposed to secular growth trends of AI, 5G, machine learning and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>现代技术不断变化，新的发展不断推动微芯片的新应用，包括存储器和存储。通过5G、大数据、自动驾驶汽车、物联网等技术进步，预计未来几年数据量将强劲增长。这种背景对美光科技的增长非常积极，特别是受到人工智能、5G、机器学习和自动驾驶汽车的长期增长趋势的影响。</blockquote></p><p> This means that Micron is directly exposed to several growth sources over the coming years and its total addressable market is expected to increase substantially over the next decade. This secular growth trend was even accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic, with demand for gaming, laptops and other products increasing rapidly, being a strong cyclical support for Micron's growth beyond its secular growth tailwinds.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着美光科技在未来几年将直接面临多种增长来源，预计其总目标市场将在未来十年大幅增长。冠状病毒大流行甚至加速了这种长期增长趋势，对游戏、笔记本电脑和其他产品的需求迅速增加，为美光科技的增长提供了强大的周期性支持，超出了其长期增长的顺风。</blockquote></p><p> According to MarketWatch, the semiconductor memory market is expected to be around $134 in annual sales by 2027, a compounded annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2021-27. Even though this is a positive backdrop, the overall semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% during 2021-28, thus the memory market may not be the best sub-sector to be exposed to secular growth trends supporting this industry over the coming years. However, Micron has a higher estimate of the total available market for memory and storage by 2024, thus growth opportunities for the company may be higher than what the market is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketWatch的数据，预计到2027年，半导体存储器市场的年销售额将在134美元左右，2021-27年的复合年增长率为5.9%。尽管这是一个积极的背景，但整个半导体行业预计在2021-28年期间将以8.6%的CAGR增长，因此内存市场可能不是未来几年支持该行业的长期增长趋势的最佳子行业。然而，美光对2024年内存和存储总可用市场的估计更高，因此该公司的增长机会可能高于市场目前的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58b60021e186ca242433f7923d10fbb7\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Micron.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：美光。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Despite good growth prospects over the coming years, the memory and storage segment is usually considered more cyclical than other segments and costumers are structurally reluctant to enter into long-term, fixed-price commitments. This means that Micron is highly exposed to the supply/demand situation in the market and its pricing power is somewhat low over the medium to long term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管未来几年增长前景良好，但内存和存储领域通常被认为比其他领域更具周期性，客户在结构上不愿意做出长期、固定价格的承诺。这意味着美光科技很容易受到市场供需状况的影响，从中长期来看，其定价能力较低。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond that, the company also accepts orders that may be adjusted in terms of pricing by the time of shipment, showing that even in the short-term its pricing power is rather low. This is also why the company does not consider its order backlog to be a good indicator of future sales, which means that forecasting Micron's revenues and earnings in a time frame of 3-5 years is a tough exercise that most likely will be incorrect compared to the actual numbers the company will report in the succeeding periods.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，该公司还接受发货时可能会调整定价的订单，这表明即使在短期内其定价能力也相当低。这也是为什么该公司不认为其积压订单是未来销售的良好指标，这意味着预测美光科技在3-5年内的收入和收益是一项艰巨的任务，与相比很可能是不正确的。公司将在后续期间报告的实际数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务概况</b></blockquote></p><p> Regarding its financial performance, Micron has a mixed history showing that its business is clearly cyclical and can report strong swings on an annual basis. Indeed, even though Micron's revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% from fiscal years (FY) 2016-20 (which end s in September), its revenues declined by 23% in FY 2019 and 8.4% in FY 2020. Moreover, its net income is also highly volatile, reporting $14 billion in FY 2018 and only $2.7 billion in FY 2020.</p><p><blockquote>关于其财务业绩，美光科技的历史好坏参半，表明其业务具有明显的周期性，并且每年都会出现强劲的波动。事实上，尽管美光科技的收入较2016-20财年（9月结束）以17.4%的复合年增长率(CAGR)增长，但其收入在2019财年下降了23%，在2020财年下降了8.4%。此外，其净利润也波动很大，2018财年为140亿美元，2020财年仅为27亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This clearly shows that Micron is highly exposed to the ups and downs of the market, which can change quite dramatically in a short period of time. This can also be seen by Micron's long-term trend of its EBITDA margin, which is highly volatile even though it has consistently improved over the years.</p><p><blockquote>这清楚地表明，美光科技很容易受到市场波动的影响，而市场波动可能在短时间内发生相当剧烈的变化。这也可以从美光的EBITDA利润率的长期趋势中看出，尽管多年来一直在改善，但该利润率波动很大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459155c1caccc19e677c71474158f979\" tg-width=\"291\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Micron.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：美光。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> More recently, Micron's business has been on a better operating momentum, to some extent driven by the pandemic, with demand for consumer electronics increasing substantially across the globe, which was a strong tailwind for the memory and storage chip market, while other segments reported lower demand, such as automotive.</p><p><blockquote>最近，美光科技的业务在一定程度上受到疫情的推动，全球对消费电子产品的需求大幅增长，这对内存和存储芯片市场来说是一个强劲的推动力，而其他细分市场则报告较低需求，例如汽车。</blockquote></p><p> This mixed backdrop resulted in lower revenues during the FY 2020, due to a large extent from lower DRAM prices that impacted negatively Micron's revenues and gross margin, Its revenues amounted to $21.4 billion (-8.4% YoY) and its gross margin declined to 31% (vs. 46% in FY 2019). Sales of NAND products increased during the year, boosted by data center customers, but were not enough to offset weakness in the DRAM segment. Regarding costs and R&D, Micron has a good discipline and these costs did not increase significantly compared to the previous year. Micron's bottom-line declined by 57% YoY to $2.7 billion, and its EPS was $2.37 (vs. $5.51 per share in FY 2019).</p><p><blockquote>这种复杂的背景导致2020财年收入下降，这在很大程度上是由于DRAM价格下降对美光的收入和毛利率产生了负面影响，其收入达214亿美元（同比-8.4%），毛利率下降至31%（2019财年为46%）。在数据中心客户的推动下，NAND产品的销售额在年内有所增长，但不足以抵消DRAM细分市场的疲软。关于成本和研发，美光有很好的纪律性，这些成本与前一年相比没有明显增加。美光科技的净利润同比下降57%至27亿美元，每股收益为2.37美元（2019财年为每股5.51美元）。</blockquote></p><p> During the first nine months of FY 2021, Micron has reported a very strong operating momentum which has enabled it to offset the loss of Huawei as a costumer due to U.S. sanctions (it represented about 12% of Micron's revenues in FY 2019).</p><p><blockquote>在2021财年的前九个月，美光科技报告了非常强劲的运营势头，这使其能够抵消华为因美国制裁而失去的客户（华为约占美光科技2019财年收入的12%）。</blockquote></p><p> In the third quarter of FY 2021, its revenues were 7.4 billion (+36% YoY) boosted by DRAM that reported revenue growth of 52% YoY, due to higher volumes and prices, while NAND's revenues were up by 9% YoY. Its net income more than double from the third quarter of FY 2020, to $2.17 billion, and its net profit margin improved to 29% (vs. 17% in the same quarter of last year). Its free cash flow was $1.5 billion in the quarter, a very good level of cash flow generation compared to accounting profit.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年第三季度，DRAM的收入为74亿美元（同比增长36%），由于销量和价格上涨，DRAM的收入同比增长52%，而NAND的收入同比增长9%。其净利润较2020财年第三季度增长了一倍多，达到21.7亿美元，净利润率提高至29%（去年同期为17%）。该季度的自由现金流为15亿美元，与会计利润相比，现金流生成水平非常好。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, Micron is very positive about the demand outlook in the memory segment, supported by data center costumers and new product developments that should support volume growth in the coming years. On the other hand, there is some negative sentiment in the market about future memory prices, which would be negative for the company's revenue growth in the coming quarters. For instance, a <b>Morgan Stanley</b>(MS) analyst has recently downgraded Micron because he expect s DRAM prices to be in a late stage cycle has the supply-demand situation is becoming more balanced.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，美光科技对内存领域的需求前景非常乐观，这得益于数据中心客户和新产品开发，这将支持未来几年的销量增长。另一方面，市场对未来内存价格存在一些负面情绪，这将不利于公司未来几个季度的收入增长。例如，a<b>摩根士丹利</b>(MS)分析师最近下调了美光的评级，因为他预计随着供需形势变得更加平衡，s DRAM价格将处于周期的后期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, according to analysts' estimates, Micron should report higher revenues in FY 2022 and FY 2023 (to $36.7 billion and $40 billion, respectively) and the business is only expected to slow down thereafter. Its bottom-line is estimated to go up by 86% YoY in FY 2022, but to drop in the following years, which show to some extent that Micron's current strong growth may not be sustainable over the medium term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，根据分析师的估计，美光科技在2022财年和2023财年的收入应该会更高（分别达到367亿美元和400亿美元），预计此后业务只会放缓。预计2022财年其利润将同比增长86%，但随后几年将下降，这在一定程度上表明美光科技目前的强劲增长在中期内可能无法持续。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding its balance sheet, Micron has a good situation, given that its net cash position was around $3.1 billion at the end of last quarter, thus its financial profile is strong and it can return excess capital to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>关于其资产负债表，美光科技的情况良好，因为其上季度末的净现金头寸约为31亿美元，因此其财务状况强劲，可以向股东返还多余的资本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, Micron has performed historically share buybacks, but more recently decided to start distributing a dividend, which shows some confidence about the company's future business prospects and its ability to return capital to shareholders in a recurring basis. Its quarterly dividend was set at only $0.10 per share, which lead to a modest dividend yield, but the goal is to gradually increase the dividend over the next few years.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，美光科技历史上曾进行过股票回购，但最近决定开始分配股息，这表明人们对公司未来的业务前景及其定期向股东返还资本的能力充满信心。其季度股息仅定为每股0.10美元，这导致股息收益率适中，但目标是在未来几年内逐步增加股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron is reporting strong growth and medium-term prospects are good due to several growth trends of AI, 5G and others. However, the memory market is highly cyclical and there are some worries that its current strong trend may not last much.</p><p><blockquote>由于人工智能、5G等的几个增长趋势，美光科技报告强劲增长，中期前景良好。然而，内存市场具有很强的周期性，有人担心其目前的强劲趋势可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p> The semiconductor industry has secular long-term growth prospects, but in my opinion the best way to invest in this theme is through companies that have some sort of competitive advantage and pricing power, such as <b>ASML</b>(ASML) that has a monopoly in the EUV technology. Micron does not fit that criteria and for that reason I was inclined to avoid it.</p><p><blockquote>半导体行业具有长期增长前景，但在我看来，投资该主题的最佳方式是通过具有某种竞争优势和定价能力的公司，例如<b>ASML</b>（ASML）在EUV技术上拥有垄断地位。美光不符合这个标准，因此我倾向于避免它。</blockquote></p><p> However, I find its valuation as ridiculously cheap, given that based on 2022 and 2023 earnings it is currently trading at less than 7x forward earnings. This is extremely undemanding and even if earnings estimates come down somewhat, Micron would still be trading at a much lower valuation than its peers and its own historical average (about 11.5x over the past five years).</p><p><blockquote>然而，我发现它的估值低得离谱，因为根据2022年和2023年的收益，目前它的交易价格还不到远期收益的7倍。这要求极低，即使盈利预期有所下降，美光科技的估值仍将远低于同行及其历史平均水平（过去五年约为11.5倍）。</blockquote></p><p> This means that even though Micron is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry (my investment approach is to buy mainly secular growth companies), its valuation is too much cheap to ignore and upside potential looks good if pricing in the memory market remains strong. I have bought a small stake in Micron (about 3% of my portfolio) and intend to hold it for a while, but if pricing in the memory market starts to show weakness I most likely will sell my stake.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着，尽管美光是半导体行业内的周期性公司（我的投资方法是主要购买长期增长型公司），但其估值太便宜，不容忽视，如果内存市场的定价保持强劲，上涨潜力看起来不错。我已经购买了美光科技的少量股份（约占我投资组合的3%）并打算持有一段时间，但如果内存市场的定价开始显示疲软，我很可能会出售我的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453997-micron-is-too-cheap-to-ignore\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453997-micron-is-too-cheap-to-ignore","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135345797","content_text":"Summary\n\nI invest mainly in secular growth companies and would, therefore, avoid Micron because the memory and storage segment is highly cyclical.\nMicron is reporting strong growth in the past few quarters and this trend is expected to remain positive over the next couple of years.\nIts valuation at less than 7x forward earnings is very undemanding and makes it a good cyclical play in the semiconductor industry.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nMicron Technology(MU) is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry and I prefer to invest in secular growth companies, but its valuation is so cheap that it makes a very compelling investment right now.\nCompany Overview\nMicron is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, measured by its more than $21 billion in revenues generated last year. The company is focused on the memory and storage products segment, through its DRAM, NAND and NOR technologies. By technology, DRAM is by far the most important one, being responsible for more than two thirds of Micron's revenues.\nSource: Micron.\nMicron was founded in 1978 and is nowadays present in some 17 countries around the world and has 13 manufacturing sites and 14 customer labs in the U.S., China Mainland, Taiwan and other areas. It is traded on the NASDAQ and has a market value of about $83 billion.\nThe semiconductor industry faces fierce competition and this means that for Micron to remain competitive it must invest continuously in new products and technologies to differentiate itself from other players. Its closest competitors are Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF) and SK Hynix, two companies based in South Korea, thus manufacturing costs is also an important factor for Micron to be competitive in the marketplace. According to Statista, Samsung is the largest player in this market segment, followed by SK and Micron, while other players have much smaller market shares.\nEven though the semiconductor industry is generally considered to be a cyclical industry, its prospects are quite good due to new technologies that are expected to boost demand over the next few years.\nGrowth\nAs I've analyzed in a previous article on \"ASML: A Fantastic Company For Long-Term Investors\", the semiconductor industry has very good long-term growth prospects due to several sources of innovation that should support growth for many years down the road.\nModern technology is constantly changing and new developments are constantly pushing for new applications of microchips, including memory and storage. The volume of data is expected to grow strongly over the coming years, through technological advances like 5G, Big Data, autonomous vehicles, the internet of things, beyond others. This backdrop is very positive for Micron's growth, being specifically exposed to secular growth trends of AI, 5G, machine learning and autonomous vehicles.\nThis means that Micron is directly exposed to several growth sources over the coming years and its total addressable market is expected to increase substantially over the next decade. This secular growth trend was even accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic, with demand for gaming, laptops and other products increasing rapidly, being a strong cyclical support for Micron's growth beyond its secular growth tailwinds.\nAccording to MarketWatch, the semiconductor memory market is expected to be around $134 in annual sales by 2027, a compounded annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2021-27. Even though this is a positive backdrop, the overall semiconductor industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% during 2021-28, thus the memory market may not be the best sub-sector to be exposed to secular growth trends supporting this industry over the coming years. However, Micron has a higher estimate of the total available market for memory and storage by 2024, thus growth opportunities for the company may be higher than what the market is currently expecting.\nSource: Micron.\nDespite good growth prospects over the coming years, the memory and storage segment is usually considered more cyclical than other segments and costumers are structurally reluctant to enter into long-term, fixed-price commitments. This means that Micron is highly exposed to the supply/demand situation in the market and its pricing power is somewhat low over the medium to long term.\nBeyond that, the company also accepts orders that may be adjusted in terms of pricing by the time of shipment, showing that even in the short-term its pricing power is rather low. This is also why the company does not consider its order backlog to be a good indicator of future sales, which means that forecasting Micron's revenues and earnings in a time frame of 3-5 years is a tough exercise that most likely will be incorrect compared to the actual numbers the company will report in the succeeding periods.\nFinancial Overview\nRegarding its financial performance, Micron has a mixed history showing that its business is clearly cyclical and can report strong swings on an annual basis. Indeed, even though Micron's revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% from fiscal years (FY) 2016-20 (which end s in September), its revenues declined by 23% in FY 2019 and 8.4% in FY 2020. Moreover, its net income is also highly volatile, reporting $14 billion in FY 2018 and only $2.7 billion in FY 2020.\nThis clearly shows that Micron is highly exposed to the ups and downs of the market, which can change quite dramatically in a short period of time. This can also be seen by Micron's long-term trend of its EBITDA margin, which is highly volatile even though it has consistently improved over the years.\nSource: Micron.\nMore recently, Micron's business has been on a better operating momentum, to some extent driven by the pandemic, with demand for consumer electronics increasing substantially across the globe, which was a strong tailwind for the memory and storage chip market, while other segments reported lower demand, such as automotive.\nThis mixed backdrop resulted in lower revenues during the FY 2020, due to a large extent from lower DRAM prices that impacted negatively Micron's revenues and gross margin, Its revenues amounted to $21.4 billion (-8.4% YoY) and its gross margin declined to 31% (vs. 46% in FY 2019). Sales of NAND products increased during the year, boosted by data center customers, but were not enough to offset weakness in the DRAM segment. Regarding costs and R&D, Micron has a good discipline and these costs did not increase significantly compared to the previous year. Micron's bottom-line declined by 57% YoY to $2.7 billion, and its EPS was $2.37 (vs. $5.51 per share in FY 2019).\nDuring the first nine months of FY 2021, Micron has reported a very strong operating momentum which has enabled it to offset the loss of Huawei as a costumer due to U.S. sanctions (it represented about 12% of Micron's revenues in FY 2019).\nIn the third quarter of FY 2021, its revenues were 7.4 billion (+36% YoY) boosted by DRAM that reported revenue growth of 52% YoY, due to higher volumes and prices, while NAND's revenues were up by 9% YoY. Its net income more than double from the third quarter of FY 2020, to $2.17 billion, and its net profit margin improved to 29% (vs. 17% in the same quarter of last year). Its free cash flow was $1.5 billion in the quarter, a very good level of cash flow generation compared to accounting profit.\nGoing forward, Micron is very positive about the demand outlook in the memory segment, supported by data center costumers and new product developments that should support volume growth in the coming years. On the other hand, there is some negative sentiment in the market about future memory prices, which would be negative for the company's revenue growth in the coming quarters. For instance, a Morgan Stanley(MS) analyst has recently downgraded Micron because he expect s DRAM prices to be in a late stage cycle has the supply-demand situation is becoming more balanced.\nNevertheless, according to analysts' estimates, Micron should report higher revenues in FY 2022 and FY 2023 (to $36.7 billion and $40 billion, respectively) and the business is only expected to slow down thereafter. Its bottom-line is estimated to go up by 86% YoY in FY 2022, but to drop in the following years, which show to some extent that Micron's current strong growth may not be sustainable over the medium term.\nRegarding its balance sheet, Micron has a good situation, given that its net cash position was around $3.1 billion at the end of last quarter, thus its financial profile is strong and it can return excess capital to shareholders.\nIndeed, Micron has performed historically share buybacks, but more recently decided to start distributing a dividend, which shows some confidence about the company's future business prospects and its ability to return capital to shareholders in a recurring basis. Its quarterly dividend was set at only $0.10 per share, which lead to a modest dividend yield, but the goal is to gradually increase the dividend over the next few years.\nBottom Line\nMicron is reporting strong growth and medium-term prospects are good due to several growth trends of AI, 5G and others. However, the memory market is highly cyclical and there are some worries that its current strong trend may not last much.\nThe semiconductor industry has secular long-term growth prospects, but in my opinion the best way to invest in this theme is through companies that have some sort of competitive advantage and pricing power, such as ASML(ASML) that has a monopoly in the EUV technology. Micron does not fit that criteria and for that reason I was inclined to avoid it.\nHowever, I find its valuation as ridiculously cheap, given that based on 2022 and 2023 earnings it is currently trading at less than 7x forward earnings. This is extremely undemanding and even if earnings estimates come down somewhat, Micron would still be trading at a much lower valuation than its peers and its own historical average (about 11.5x over the past five years).\nThis means that even though Micron is a cyclical play within the semiconductor industry (my investment approach is to buy mainly secular growth companies), its valuation is too much cheap to ignore and upside potential looks good if pricing in the memory market remains strong. I have bought a small stake in Micron (about 3% of my portfolio) and intend to hold it for a while, but if pricing in the memory market starts to show weakness I most likely will sell my stake.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1271,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889580645"}
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