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2021-09-08

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Is SoFi Stock A Buy Or Sell After Its Recent Dip?<blockquote>SoFi股票在最近下跌后是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":889096872,"tweetId":"889096872","gmtCreate":1631088966496,"gmtModify":1631891657337,"author":{"id":3585495612404250,"idStr":"3585495612404250","authorId":3585495612404250,"authorIdStr":"3585495612404250","name":"Bbex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9742a298df2a05cd66c61894a464d3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Tell me your opinion about this news...</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Tell me your opinion about this news...</body></html>","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889096872","repostId":1181361598,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181361598","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631086911,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181361598?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 15:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is SoFi Stock A Buy Or Sell After Its Recent Dip?<blockquote>SoFi股票在最近下跌后是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181361598","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSoFi has traded down by about 35% since it completed its reverse SPAC merger IPO in early J","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>SoFi has traded down by about 35% since it completed its reverse SPAC merger IPO in early June.</li> <li>The downward price pressures come as a result of the stock’s lock-up expiration, and management’s soft revenue outlook due to lower student loan refinancing volumes until 2022.</li> <li>However, the recent volatility is expected to be transitory, with significant upside realization to resume in the near-term ahead of material catalysts on which SoFi’s long-term growth is built on.</li> <li>The anticipated approval of a national bank charter for SoFi is expected to materialize within the next 12 months, which will materially transform the company's overall growth prospects.</li> <li>Combined with its cost-efficient multi-product business model and ongoing digital transformation tailwinds for the industry, SoFi is well-positioned for upside realization of as much as 38% in the near-term.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c2bba1f1a887679a1564715476d92ea\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Brian Ach/Getty Images Entertainment<blockquote><ul><li>自6月初完成反向SPAC合并IPO以来，SoFi的股价已下跌约35%。</li><li>价格下行压力来自于股票禁售期到期，以及由于2022年之前学生贷款再融资量下降而导致管理层收入前景疲软。</li><li>然而，最近的波动预计将是暂时的，在SoFi长期增长所依赖的物质催化剂出现之前，短期内将恢复显着的上行空间。</li><li>SoFi的国家银行牌照预计将在未来12个月内获得批准，这将极大地改变该公司的整体增长前景。</li><li>结合其具有成本效益的多产品业务模式和行业持续的数字化转型推动力，SoFi处于有利地位，在短期内实现高达38%的上涨空间。</li></ul>布莱恩·Ach/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</blockquote> SoFi (Nasdaq:SOFI) has been traded down about 35% since it completed its reverse SPAC merger IPO in early June. The downward price pressures observed in recent months come as a result of the stock’s lock-up expiration, as well as management’s soft revenue guidance issued as a result of lower student loan refinancing volumes for the rest of the year.<blockquote>SoFi（纳斯达克股票代码：SOFI）自6月初完成反向SPAC合并IPO以来，股价已下跌约35%。近几个月观察到的价格下行压力是由于该股禁售期到期，以及管理层因今年剩余时间学生贷款再融资量下降而发布的软收入指引。</blockquote> However, the recent volatility is expected to be transitory, with significant upside realization to resume in the near-term ahead of material catalysts on which SoFi’s long-term growth is built on. The advent of innovative technology, combined with COVID-related disruptions experienced in the last 18 months have accelerated the global transition to digital. This makes strong tailwinds for SoFi as it looks to disrupt a long-standing traditional industry like banking. The company’s multi-product business model, combined with the anticipated approval for a national bank charter is expected to further its operations by extending its lending capabilities and financial service offerings. The developments will also allow for greater cost-efficiencies, which underpins greater growth and margin expansion in the long-run. Consistent with our&nbsp;recent coverage&nbsp;on the stock, our outlook remains bullish with a 12-month price target set at $20.96. This represents upside potential of more than 38% based on the last traded price of $15.16 on September 3rd.<blockquote>然而，最近的波动预计将是暂时的，在SoFi长期增长所依赖的物质催化剂出现之前，短期内将恢复显着的上行空间。创新技术的出现，加上过去18个月中经历的与COVID相关的中断，加速了全球向数字化的过渡。这为SoFi带来了强劲的推动力，因为它希望颠覆银行业等历史悠久的传统行业。该公司的多产品业务模式，加上国家银行执照的预期批准，预计将通过扩大其贷款能力和金融服务产品来进一步推进其运营。这些发展还将提高成本效率，从长远来看，这将支撑更大的增长和利润率扩张。与我们最近对该股的报道一致，我们的前景仍然看涨，12个月目标价定为20.96美元。基于9月3日15.16美元的最后交易价格，这意味着上涨潜力超过38%。</blockquote> Why Did SoFi Stock Plunge?<blockquote>SoFi股价为何暴跌？</blockquote> SoFi closed at almost $23 on June 1stupon its debut on the Nasdaq following the&nbsp;completion of its reverse SPAC merger&nbsp;with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V. The stock’s performance remained range-bound at the $20-level for the month before plummeting by almost 20% in July. This marked the first wave of the stock’s price plunge, triggered by the lock-up expiration on shares held by early investors in the company. According to the stock’s prospectus filing, the lock-up period was equivalent to the earlier of i) 180 trading days for all shares held by early investors, or 2) when the stock trades above $12.50 for 20 of 30 trading days for 33% of shares held by early investors, and when the stock trades above $15.00 for 20 or 30 trading days for an additional 50% of shares held by early investors. Because SoFi traded above both the $12.50 and $15.00 threshold throughout June, it triggered an early lock-up period expiration for 83% of shares held by early investors. This allowed some to offload their positions and realize gains at market value throughout July. And because of the additional SoFi shares pushed into the market, the stock experienced significant price dilution throughout the month before stabilizing at $15 to $16 apiece at the end of July.<blockquote>SoFi在完成与Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp.V的反向SPAC合并后，于6月1日在纳斯达克首次亮相，收盘价接近23美元。该股当月表现维持在20美元水平区间波动，随后暴跌7月份几乎20%。这标志着该股第一波价格暴跌，是由该公司早期投资者持有的股票锁定到期引发的。根据该股的招股说明书文件，锁定期相当于i)早期投资者持有的所有股票的180个交易日，或2)当股票在30个交易日中有20个交易日的交易价格高于12.50美元时，对于33%的股票。早期投资者持有的股份，以及当股票在20或30个交易日的交易价格高于15.00美元时，对于早期投资者持有的另外50%的股份。由于SoFi整个6月份的交易价格均高于12.50美元和15.00美元的门槛，因此引发了早期投资者持有的83%股份的提前锁定期到期。这使得一些人能够在整个7月份抛售头寸并以市场价值实现收益。由于额外的SoFi股票被推入市场，该股整个月的价格经历了显着的稀释，然后在7月底稳定在每股15至16美元。</blockquote> The stock plummeted by another 14% from about $18 to $15 in mid-August following SoFi’s second quarter earnings call, despite&nbsp;topping Q2 sales estimates&nbsp;and more than doubling its membership base. This marked the second wave of the stock’s price plunge, triggered by management’s warning of reduced student loan refinancing volumes through the end of the year due to the&nbsp;extension of the U.S. government’s student loan moratorium.<blockquote>8月中旬，SoFi公布第二季度盈利看涨期权后，该股又暴跌14%，从约18美元跌至15美元，尽管第二季度销售额超出预期，会员基础也增加了一倍多。这标志着该股价格的第二波暴跌，原因是管理层警告称，由于美国政府延长学生贷款暂停期，到年底学生贷款再融资量将减少。</blockquote> Material Catalysts for a Valuation Boost Ahead<blockquote>未来估值提升的物质催化剂</blockquote> To date, the stock has traded down by approximately 35% since it went IPO three months ago, and has largely remained range-bound at the $14- to $15-level in recent weeks. However, SoFi’s share price is not expected to stay staggered for long. The company’s multi-product business model, combined with the anticipated approval of a national bank charter, are expected to be material catalysts for a valuation boost ahead. The developments are also expected to help SoFi drive higher capitalization on global digital transformation tailwinds, which the broader fintech sector has continued to benefit from.<blockquote>迄今为止，该股自三个月前首次公开募股以来已下跌约35%，最近几周基本保持在14至15美元的区间波动。然而，SoFi的股价预计不会长期保持交错状态。该公司的多产品商业模式，加上国家银行牌照的预期批准，预计将成为未来估值提升的重要催化剂。这些发展预计还将帮助SoFi在全球数字化转型的推动下推动更高的资本化，更广泛的金融科技行业继续从中受益。</blockquote> SoFi’s “Financial Services Productivity Loop” Business Model<blockquote>SoFi的“金融服务生产力循环”商业模式</blockquote> The company’s multi-product business model has continued to attract new sign-ups and drive surging revenue growth across the business, while maintaining cost-efficiencies to facilitate additional margin expansion. Through its “Financial Services Productivity Loop” (“FSPL”) business model, SoFi is gradually achieving a “flywheel” effect in its operations. The FSPL business model is essentially a multi-product business model that promotes cross-selling opportunities, while minimizing customer acquisition costs. For instance, SoFi’s commission-free investing platform, “SoFi Invest”, may not be making large profits for the company, but it helps to build its membership base and increase engagement. And over time, when SoFi Invest members start to use additional SoFi products, such as its higher-margin lending services, SoFi’s sales will increase while having incurred zero incremental customer acquisition costs. This strategy helps the company generate sufficient funds for reinvesting into further expansion of its offerings, and subsequently lowering costs through scale that can be passed on to customers to attract higher engagement. It also becomes a “self-reinforcing virtuous cycle” for facilitating the company’s continued growth.<blockquote>该公司的多产品业务模式继续吸引新注册用户并推动整个业务的收入激增，同时保持成本效率以促进额外的利润扩张。通过其“金融服务生产力循环”（“FSPL”）业务模式，SoFi正在逐步实现其运营的“飞轮”效应。FSPL商业模式本质上是一种多产品商业模式，促进交叉销售机会，同时最大限度地降低客户获取成本。例如，SoFi的免佣金投资平台“SoFi Invest”可能不会为公司带来巨额利润，但它有助于建立会员基础并提高参与度。随着时间的推移，当SoFi Invest会员开始使用额外的SoFi产品（例如其利润率更高的贷款服务）时，SoFi的销售额将会增加，同时零增量客户获取成本。这一战略有助于公司产生足够的资金，用于再投资于进一步扩展其产品，并随后通过可转嫁给客户以吸引更高参与度的规模来降低成本。这也成为促进公司持续增长的“自我强化的良性循环”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af66a56a2b9174a618c1ecabed296bf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: SoFi Investor Presentation.<blockquote>资料来源：SoFi投资者介绍。</blockquote> The strategy has continued to underpin SoFi’s robust sales and membership growth momentum achieved over the years. SoFi currently serves more than 1.85 million members, up 90% from the prior year, and is expected to reach three million members by the end of the year. And from a sales standpoint, each of its lending, financial services and technology business segments have achieved high double- to triple-digit growth in recent quarters, a testament to the effectiveness of its FSPL business model. SoFi’s most profitable lending segment grew 47% year-over-year during the second quarter, while its lower-margin technology and financial services segments soared 119% and close to seven-fold, respectively.<blockquote>该战略继续支撑SoFi多年来实现的强劲销售和会员增长势头。SoFi目前为超过185万会员提供服务，比上年增长90%，预计到今年年底会员人数将达到300万。从销售角度来看，其贷款、金融服务和技术业务部门最近几个季度都实现了两位数到三位数的高增长，这证明了其FSPL业务模式的有效性。SoFi最赚钱的贷款部门第二季度同比增长47%，而利润率较低的技术和金融服务部门分别飙升119%和近七倍。</blockquote> Circling back to management’s warning of lower student loan refinancing volumes for the rest of the year, the adverse impact that the news had on SoFi’s share price is not expected to persist for long. SoFi’s FSPL business model has continued to propel demand for its other lending products, such as personal loans and mortgages. During the second quarter, the volume of refinanced student loans handled by SoFi had already dropped by more than half compared to pre-CARES Act levels. Yet, the lending segment’s total funded volume across all lending products still grew by 66% to $2.9 billion, resulting in strong double-digit year-over-year growth in the segment’s revenues. Despite management’s expectations to lose out on another $40 million in student-loan refinancing later this year due to the U.S. government’s&nbsp;extension of student loan relief&nbsp;to January 31st, 2022, it is clear that SoFi’s lending business will continue to post unstoppable growth ahead regardless. And this is especially true when student loan refinancing volumes pick up again in 2022, thanks to the self-reinforcing virtuous cycle of growth that SoFi’s FSPL business model has bolstered.<blockquote>回到管理层关于今年剩余时间学生贷款再融资额下降的警告，该消息对SoFi股价的不利影响预计不会持续太久。SoFi的FSPL商业模式继续推动对其其他贷款产品（例如个人贷款和抵押贷款）的需求。第二季度，SoFi处理的再融资学生贷款数量与CARES法案之前的水平相比已经下降了一半以上。然而，贷款部门所有贷款产品的融资总额仍增长了66%，达到29亿美元，导致该部门的收入同比强劲增长两位数。尽管管理层预计，由于美国政府将学生贷款减免延长至2022年1月31日，今年晚些时候将再损失4000万美元的学生贷款再融资，但很明显，无论如何，SoFi的贷款业务将继续实现不可阻挡的增长。由于SoFi的FSPL商业模式所支持的自我强化的良性增长循环，当学生贷款再融资量在2022年再次回升时尤其如此。</blockquote> National Bank Charter<blockquote>国家银行章程</blockquote> SoFi’s announcement to&nbsp;acquire Golden Pacific Bancorp(“GPB”) in March is also expected to accelerate its process in obtaining a national bank charter, which is another key catalyst to boosting the stock’s valuation. For context, SoFi had already applied for a national bank charter last summer, and received conditional approval in October. And the acquisition of GPB, which is expected to close before the end of the year, will likely fast-track the full approval process for SoFi’s national bank charter as soon as this year. A similar strategy has been proven effective for some of SoFi’s fintech peers, including Square and LendingClub, which obtained approval for a national banking charter shortly after their respective acquisitions of smaller community banks.<blockquote>SoFi在3月份宣布收购Golden Pacific Bancorp（“GPB”），预计也将加速其获得国家银行牌照的进程，这是提振该股估值的另一个关键催化剂。就背景而言，SoFi已于去年夏天申请国家银行牌照，并于10月获得有条件批准。对GPB的收购预计将于今年年底前完成，最快可能会在今年加快SoFi国家银行牌照的全面审批流程。类似的策略已被证明对SoFi的一些金融科技同行有效，包括Square和LendingClub，它们在各自收购较小的社区银行后不久就获得了国家银行牌照的批准。</blockquote> A national bank charter will be critical to taking SoFi’s growth to the next level, especially for its lending business. SoFi’s lending platform has always been at the forefront of its business, accounting for 86% of the company’s revenues in 2020. It is also currently SoFi’s most profitable business segment, with a contribution margin of close to 54%. A national bank charter will allow SoFi to further its lending capabilities by allowing loans made with member deposits instead of capital borrowed from third-party banks. This accordingly lowers the business’ overall costs of capital, allowing for greater margin expansion over time.<blockquote>国家银行牌照对于将SoFi的增长提升到一个新的水平至关重要，尤其是对其贷款业务而言。SoFi的借贷平台一直走在业务前列，2020年占公司收入的86%。也是目前SoFi最赚钱的业务板块，贡献率接近54%。国家银行章程将允许SoFi通过允许用会员存款而不是从第三方银行借入的资本发放贷款来进一步增强其贷款能力。这相应地降低了企业的总体资本成本，从而随着时间的推移实现更大的利润率扩张。</blockquote> A national bank charter would also be important for expanding SoFi’s financial services business segment, which is currently operating at a loss. The acquisition of GPB, combined with having a national bank charter, is expected to encourage further member deposits through SoFi. This is a critical step to achieving the company’s goal of becoming its members’ “primary bank account”. It would also help SoFi increase its market penetration rate into the 500 million retail personal banking accounts currently housed in traditional American megabanks that have yet to experience virtual banking. The bank charter is expected to help SoFi drive greater membership growth and engagement across its financial services platforms, and enable additional cost-efficiencies and margin expansion through scale in the long-run.<blockquote>国家银行牌照对于扩大SoFi的金融服务业务部门也很重要，该业务目前处于亏损状态。收购GPB，加上拥有国家银行牌照，预计将鼓励更多会员通过SoFi存款。这是实现公司成为其成员“主要银行账户”目标的关键一步。它还将帮助SoFi提高其对5亿零售个人银行账户的市场渗透率，这些账户目前存放在尚未体验虚拟银行业务的美国传统大型银行中。该银行章程预计将帮助SoFi推动其金融服务平台的会员增长和参与度，并从长远来看通过规模实现额外的成本效率和利润扩张。</blockquote> Obtaining a national bank charter would also work hand in hand with SoFi’s payment solutions infrastructure platform, Galileo. Galileo already enables profit-sharing for SoFi, as the payment solutions platform primarily services&nbsp;SoFi’s competition, such as Robinhood. The platform also provides the payment solutions infrastructure for SoFi Money, driving cost synergies through vertical integration. Together with a national bank charter, it would become easier for SoFi to engage in strategic partnerships with other companies to offer additional products such as “sweep accounts, FDIC insurance warehouse facilities, etc.”, and drive greater sales for the business segment going forward.<blockquote>获得国家银行执照还将与SoFi的支付解决方案基础设施平台Galileo携手合作。Galileo已经为SoFi实现了利润分享，因为该支付解决方案平台主要为SoFi的竞争对手（例如Robinhood）提供服务。该平台还为SoFi Money提供支付解决方案基础设施，通过垂直整合推动成本协同效应。再加上国家银行章程，SoFi将更容易与其他公司建立战略合作伙伴关系，提供“清扫账户、FDIC保险仓库设施等”等额外产品，并推动该业务部门未来的更大销售额。</blockquote> Having a national bank charter is expected to drive material benefits to SoFi’s financial performance as well. Due to the cost-efficiencies and growth synergies achievable through having a national bank charter, SoFi’s projected adjusted EBITDA in 2022 is expected to jump by 76% from $254 million to $447 million. And over the next five years, obtaining a national bank charter is expected to drive cumulative incremental EBITDA of more than $1 billion for SoFi. This would make a material bump to the company’s intrinsic value, which should be reflected as upside realization for the stock in the near-term.<blockquote>拥有国家银行执照预计也将为SoFi的财务业绩带来实质性好处。由于拥有国家银行牌照可实现成本效率和增长协同效应，SoFi预计2022年调整后EBITDA预计将增长76%，从2.54亿美元增至4.47亿美元。未来五年，获得国家银行牌照预计将为SoFi带来超过10亿美元的累计增量EBITDA。这将对公司的内在价值产生重大影响，这应该反映在该股短期内的上涨实现上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c58c360b20e4c03b3b171b74eea059\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: SoFi Investor Presentation.<blockquote>资料来源：SoFi投资者介绍。</blockquote> Digital Transformation Tailwinds<blockquote>数字化转型顺风</blockquote> The advent of innovative technology, combined with COVID-related disruptions experienced in the last 18 months, have accelerated demands for convenient and easy-to-use virtual banking platforms. According to&nbsp;Adjust’s&nbsp;global app trends report, fintech app usage grew by 85% year-over-year during the pandemic, and has continued to surge by another 49% in the first half of 2021. More than 45% of fintech app users indicated that their banking habits have “permanently changed” since the onset of the pandemic. This has created a strong foundation of high-growth opportunities within the fintech scene, which SoFi is well-positioned to capitalize on with its multi-product business model. The company’s ability to keep prices at competitive levels compared to traditional banks is also expected to drive greater appeal to the younger generation, which is currently the dominant demographic of virtual banking app users. Out of more than 30% of Americans who either have an account or are planning to open an account with a virtual bank,56% are under the age of 40.<blockquote>创新技术的出现，加上过去18个月中经历的与COVID相关的中断，加速了对方便易用的虚拟银行平台的需求。根据Adjust的全球应用趋势报告，金融科技应用的使用量在疫情期间同比增长了85%，并在2021年上半年继续飙升49%。超过45%的金融科技应用用户表示，自疫情爆发以来，他们的银行习惯已经“永久改变”。这为金融科技领域的高增长机会奠定了坚实的基础，SoFi有能力通过其多产品商业模式充分利用这一机会。与传统银行相比，该公司将价格保持在有竞争力的水平的能力预计也将对年轻一代产生更大的吸引力，年轻一代是目前虚拟银行应用程序用户的主要人群。在超过30%拥有虚拟银行账户或计划开设虚拟银行账户的美国人中，56%的人年龄在40岁以下。</blockquote> Obtaining a national bank charter also comes at an opportune time for SoFi. The global digital lending industry is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of at least 25% through to 2025, and at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2030. Meanwhile, the broader digital banking sector is forecasted to keep growing at a CAGR of at least&nbsp;13.8%&nbsp;up to&nbsp;29.9%&nbsp;through to 2030. The additional growth opportunities available to SoFi, combined with the cost synergies enabled by a national bank charter, is expected to set the stage for profitability sooner than expected. A national bank charter would also enable SoFi to maximize capitalization on the high-growth opportunities ahead, creating additional upside for the stock in the near-term.<blockquote>对于SoFi来说，获得国家银行牌照也恰逢其时。预计到2025年，全球数字借贷行业的复合年增长率（“CAGR”）至少为25%，2025年至2030年的复合年增长率为5.5%。与此同时，更广泛的数字银行业预计将以至少13.8%至29.9%的复合年增长率保持增长。SoFi获得的额外增长机会，加上国家银行章程带来的成本协同效应，预计将比预期更快地实现盈利。国家银行章程还将使SoFi能够最大限度地利用未来的高增长机会，从而在短期内为该股创造额外的上涨空间。</blockquote> Financial Prospects Recap<blockquote>财务前景回顾</blockquote> The growth catalysts will underpin SoFi’s financial performance over the next ten years as the global transition to digital continues to take place. As analyzed in detail by business segment in our&nbsp;recent coverage&nbsp;on the stock, SoFi is expected to generate total net revenue of $968.8 million by the end of the year, representing year-over-year growth of 56%. The top-line is projected to experience further accelerated growth at a CAGR of 19.3% towards $5.7 billion by 2030 as a result of increasing adoption of virtual banking channels.<blockquote>随着全球向数字化转型的持续进行，增长催化剂将支撑SoFi未来十年的财务业绩。正如我们最近对该股的报道中按业务部门详细分析的那样，SoFi预计到今年年底将产生9.688亿美元的总净收入，同比增长56%。由于虚拟银行渠道的采用越来越多，预计到2030年，营收将以19.3%的复合年增长率进一步加速增长，达到57亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fdc65293620b1295cb42ed09128f1f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (SoFi_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测(SoFi_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf)。</blockquote> Total non-interest expenses, which consist of technology and product development, sales and marketing, cost of operations, general and administrative, and other nominal spending, are forecasted at $1.6 billion by the end of the year. Related cost items are expected to represent a higher percentage of total revenues through to 2025 to support SoFi’s ongoing growth initiatives, which include further development to its portfolio of service offering and overseas expansion. Yet, these expenses will be partially offset by cost-savings achieved through the FSPL business model and synergies realizable after obtaining a national bank charter, which would accordingly lead to narrowing losses through to 2023.<blockquote>预计到今年年底，非利息支出总额（包括技术和产品开发、销售和营销、运营成本、一般和管理以及其他名义支出）为16亿美元。预计到2025年，相关成本项目将占总收入的更高比例，以支持SoFi持续的增长计划，其中包括进一步发展其服务组合和海外扩张。然而，这些费用将被通过FSPL业务模式实现的成本节约以及获得国家银行牌照后可实现的协同效应部分抵消，这将相应地导致到2023年亏损收窄。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a7f2b3bde0cb99d79b6ab908c61372\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> SoFi is expected to generate profits of $402.3 million as soon as 2024, with growth at a CAGR of 27.6% towards $1.7 billion by 2030.<blockquote>SoFi预计最早将在2024年产生4.023亿美元的利润，复合年增长率为27.6%，到2030年将达到17亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0390c07005e43ce9bebef7346f0cf26d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecast:<blockquote>i.基本情况财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bca21d0fa161c8fb2a9ff60eda96b8c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a720544b7678e2991cf1e17d3edacb5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"197\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> Our bullish outlook on SoFi remains unchanged from our previous coverage, with a 12-month price target of $20.96 despite recent price pressures on the stock. This represents upside potential of more than 38% based on the last traded price of $15.16 on September 3rd.<blockquote>尽管该股最近面临价格压力，但我们对SoFi的看涨前景与之前的报道保持不变，12个月目标价为20.96美元。基于9月3日15.16美元的最后交易价格，这意味着上涨潜力超过38%。</blockquote> The price target is derived using a multiples-based valuation approach. We have applied a price-to-sales multiple of 17.3x to projected total net revenues per share for 2021 to determine the 12-month price target. The multiple is consistent with those of SoFi’s industry peers, as well as market expectations on the company’s near-term valuation based on its current operating environment, business developments, and growth trajectory.<blockquote>价格目标是使用基于倍数的估值方法得出的。我们对2021年预计每股净收入总额应用了17.3倍的市销率，以确定12个月的价格目标。该倍数与SoFi行业同行的倍数一致，也与市场基于其当前运营环境、业务发展和增长轨迹对公司近期估值的预期一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cdea4d655a868c9515c98e2c0149a47\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"70\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> The stock’s recent pullback makes an attractive buying opportunity. This rings especially true with the anticipated approval of a national bank charter that is expected to materialize within the next 12 months, which will materially transform SoFi’s overall growth prospects. SoFi’s differentiated business model also makes it well-positioned to capitalize on the significant additional growth opportunities ahead as retail customers look to add reliable and affordable virtual platforms to their banking routines.<blockquote>该股最近的回调是一个有吸引力的买入机会。随着国家银行章程的批准预计将在未来12个月内实现，这一点尤其正确，这将极大地改变SoFi的整体增长前景。随着零售客户希望在其银行业务中添加可靠且经济实惠的虚拟平台，SoFi的差异化业务模式也使其能够充分利用未来重大的额外增长机会。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is SoFi Stock A Buy Or Sell After Its Recent Dip?<blockquote>SoFi股票在最近下跌后是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs SoFi Stock A Buy Or Sell After Its Recent Dip?<blockquote>SoFi股票在最近下跌后是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-08 15:41\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>SoFi has traded down by about 35% since it completed its reverse SPAC merger IPO in early June.</li> <li>The downward price pressures come as a result of the stock’s lock-up expiration, and management’s soft revenue outlook due to lower student loan refinancing volumes until 2022.</li> <li>However, the recent volatility is expected to be transitory, with significant upside realization to resume in the near-term ahead of material catalysts on which SoFi’s long-term growth is built on.</li> <li>The anticipated approval of a national bank charter for SoFi is expected to materialize within the next 12 months, which will materially transform the company's overall growth prospects.</li> <li>Combined with its cost-efficient multi-product business model and ongoing digital transformation tailwinds for the industry, SoFi is well-positioned for upside realization of as much as 38% in the near-term.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c2bba1f1a887679a1564715476d92ea\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Brian Ach/Getty Images Entertainment<blockquote><ul><li>自6月初完成反向SPAC合并IPO以来，SoFi的股价已下跌约35%。</li><li>价格下行压力来自于股票禁售期到期，以及由于2022年之前学生贷款再融资量下降而导致管理层收入前景疲软。</li><li>然而，最近的波动预计将是暂时的，在SoFi长期增长所依赖的物质催化剂出现之前，短期内将恢复显着的上行空间。</li><li>SoFi的国家银行牌照预计将在未来12个月内获得批准，这将极大地改变该公司的整体增长前景。</li><li>结合其具有成本效益的多产品业务模式和行业持续的数字化转型推动力，SoFi处于有利地位，在短期内实现高达38%的上涨空间。</li></ul>布莱恩·Ach/盖蒂图片社娱乐公司</blockquote> SoFi (Nasdaq:SOFI) has been traded down about 35% since it completed its reverse SPAC merger IPO in early June. The downward price pressures observed in recent months come as a result of the stock’s lock-up expiration, as well as management’s soft revenue guidance issued as a result of lower student loan refinancing volumes for the rest of the year.<blockquote>SoFi（纳斯达克股票代码：SOFI）自6月初完成反向SPAC合并IPO以来，股价已下跌约35%。近几个月观察到的价格下行压力是由于该股禁售期到期，以及管理层因今年剩余时间学生贷款再融资量下降而发布的软收入指引。</blockquote> However, the recent volatility is expected to be transitory, with significant upside realization to resume in the near-term ahead of material catalysts on which SoFi’s long-term growth is built on. The advent of innovative technology, combined with COVID-related disruptions experienced in the last 18 months have accelerated the global transition to digital. This makes strong tailwinds for SoFi as it looks to disrupt a long-standing traditional industry like banking. The company’s multi-product business model, combined with the anticipated approval for a national bank charter is expected to further its operations by extending its lending capabilities and financial service offerings. The developments will also allow for greater cost-efficiencies, which underpins greater growth and margin expansion in the long-run. Consistent with our&nbsp;recent coverage&nbsp;on the stock, our outlook remains bullish with a 12-month price target set at $20.96. This represents upside potential of more than 38% based on the last traded price of $15.16 on September 3rd.<blockquote>然而，最近的波动预计将是暂时的，在SoFi长期增长所依赖的物质催化剂出现之前，短期内将恢复显着的上行空间。创新技术的出现，加上过去18个月中经历的与COVID相关的中断，加速了全球向数字化的过渡。这为SoFi带来了强劲的推动力，因为它希望颠覆银行业等历史悠久的传统行业。该公司的多产品业务模式，加上国家银行执照的预期批准，预计将通过扩大其贷款能力和金融服务产品来进一步推进其运营。这些发展还将提高成本效率，从长远来看，这将支撑更大的增长和利润率扩张。与我们最近对该股的报道一致，我们的前景仍然看涨，12个月目标价定为20.96美元。基于9月3日15.16美元的最后交易价格，这意味着上涨潜力超过38%。</blockquote> Why Did SoFi Stock Plunge?<blockquote>SoFi股价为何暴跌？</blockquote> SoFi closed at almost $23 on June 1stupon its debut on the Nasdaq following the&nbsp;completion of its reverse SPAC merger&nbsp;with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V. The stock’s performance remained range-bound at the $20-level for the month before plummeting by almost 20% in July. This marked the first wave of the stock’s price plunge, triggered by the lock-up expiration on shares held by early investors in the company. According to the stock’s prospectus filing, the lock-up period was equivalent to the earlier of i) 180 trading days for all shares held by early investors, or 2) when the stock trades above $12.50 for 20 of 30 trading days for 33% of shares held by early investors, and when the stock trades above $15.00 for 20 or 30 trading days for an additional 50% of shares held by early investors. Because SoFi traded above both the $12.50 and $15.00 threshold throughout June, it triggered an early lock-up period expiration for 83% of shares held by early investors. This allowed some to offload their positions and realize gains at market value throughout July. And because of the additional SoFi shares pushed into the market, the stock experienced significant price dilution throughout the month before stabilizing at $15 to $16 apiece at the end of July.<blockquote>SoFi在完成与Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp.V的反向SPAC合并后，于6月1日在纳斯达克首次亮相，收盘价接近23美元。该股当月表现维持在20美元水平区间波动，随后暴跌7月份几乎20%。这标志着该股第一波价格暴跌，是由该公司早期投资者持有的股票锁定到期引发的。根据该股的招股说明书文件，锁定期相当于i)早期投资者持有的所有股票的180个交易日，或2)当股票在30个交易日中有20个交易日的交易价格高于12.50美元时，对于33%的股票。早期投资者持有的股份，以及当股票在20或30个交易日的交易价格高于15.00美元时，对于早期投资者持有的另外50%的股份。由于SoFi整个6月份的交易价格均高于12.50美元和15.00美元的门槛，因此引发了早期投资者持有的83%股份的提前锁定期到期。这使得一些人能够在整个7月份抛售头寸并以市场价值实现收益。由于额外的SoFi股票被推入市场，该股整个月的价格经历了显着的稀释，然后在7月底稳定在每股15至16美元。</blockquote> The stock plummeted by another 14% from about $18 to $15 in mid-August following SoFi’s second quarter earnings call, despite&nbsp;topping Q2 sales estimates&nbsp;and more than doubling its membership base. This marked the second wave of the stock’s price plunge, triggered by management’s warning of reduced student loan refinancing volumes through the end of the year due to the&nbsp;extension of the U.S. government’s student loan moratorium.<blockquote>8月中旬，SoFi公布第二季度盈利看涨期权后，该股又暴跌14%，从约18美元跌至15美元，尽管第二季度销售额超出预期，会员基础也增加了一倍多。这标志着该股价格的第二波暴跌，原因是管理层警告称，由于美国政府延长学生贷款暂停期，到年底学生贷款再融资量将减少。</blockquote> Material Catalysts for a Valuation Boost Ahead<blockquote>未来估值提升的物质催化剂</blockquote> To date, the stock has traded down by approximately 35% since it went IPO three months ago, and has largely remained range-bound at the $14- to $15-level in recent weeks. However, SoFi’s share price is not expected to stay staggered for long. The company’s multi-product business model, combined with the anticipated approval of a national bank charter, are expected to be material catalysts for a valuation boost ahead. The developments are also expected to help SoFi drive higher capitalization on global digital transformation tailwinds, which the broader fintech sector has continued to benefit from.<blockquote>迄今为止，该股自三个月前首次公开募股以来已下跌约35%，最近几周基本保持在14至15美元的区间波动。然而，SoFi的股价预计不会长期保持交错状态。该公司的多产品商业模式，加上国家银行牌照的预期批准，预计将成为未来估值提升的重要催化剂。这些发展预计还将帮助SoFi在全球数字化转型的推动下推动更高的资本化，更广泛的金融科技行业继续从中受益。</blockquote> SoFi’s “Financial Services Productivity Loop” Business Model<blockquote>SoFi的“金融服务生产力循环”商业模式</blockquote> The company’s multi-product business model has continued to attract new sign-ups and drive surging revenue growth across the business, while maintaining cost-efficiencies to facilitate additional margin expansion. Through its “Financial Services Productivity Loop” (“FSPL”) business model, SoFi is gradually achieving a “flywheel” effect in its operations. The FSPL business model is essentially a multi-product business model that promotes cross-selling opportunities, while minimizing customer acquisition costs. For instance, SoFi’s commission-free investing platform, “SoFi Invest”, may not be making large profits for the company, but it helps to build its membership base and increase engagement. And over time, when SoFi Invest members start to use additional SoFi products, such as its higher-margin lending services, SoFi’s sales will increase while having incurred zero incremental customer acquisition costs. This strategy helps the company generate sufficient funds for reinvesting into further expansion of its offerings, and subsequently lowering costs through scale that can be passed on to customers to attract higher engagement. It also becomes a “self-reinforcing virtuous cycle” for facilitating the company’s continued growth.<blockquote>该公司的多产品业务模式继续吸引新注册用户并推动整个业务的收入激增，同时保持成本效率以促进额外的利润扩张。通过其“金融服务生产力循环”（“FSPL”）业务模式，SoFi正在逐步实现其运营的“飞轮”效应。FSPL商业模式本质上是一种多产品商业模式，促进交叉销售机会，同时最大限度地降低客户获取成本。例如，SoFi的免佣金投资平台“SoFi Invest”可能不会为公司带来巨额利润，但它有助于建立会员基础并提高参与度。随着时间的推移，当SoFi Invest会员开始使用额外的SoFi产品（例如其利润率更高的贷款服务）时，SoFi的销售额将会增加，同时零增量客户获取成本。这一战略有助于公司产生足够的资金，用于再投资于进一步扩展其产品，并随后通过可转嫁给客户以吸引更高参与度的规模来降低成本。这也成为促进公司持续增长的“自我强化的良性循环”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af66a56a2b9174a618c1ecabed296bf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: SoFi Investor Presentation.<blockquote>资料来源：SoFi投资者介绍。</blockquote> The strategy has continued to underpin SoFi’s robust sales and membership growth momentum achieved over the years. SoFi currently serves more than 1.85 million members, up 90% from the prior year, and is expected to reach three million members by the end of the year. And from a sales standpoint, each of its lending, financial services and technology business segments have achieved high double- to triple-digit growth in recent quarters, a testament to the effectiveness of its FSPL business model. SoFi’s most profitable lending segment grew 47% year-over-year during the second quarter, while its lower-margin technology and financial services segments soared 119% and close to seven-fold, respectively.<blockquote>该战略继续支撑SoFi多年来实现的强劲销售和会员增长势头。SoFi目前为超过185万会员提供服务，比上年增长90%，预计到今年年底会员人数将达到300万。从销售角度来看，其贷款、金融服务和技术业务部门最近几个季度都实现了两位数到三位数的高增长，这证明了其FSPL业务模式的有效性。SoFi最赚钱的贷款部门第二季度同比增长47%，而利润率较低的技术和金融服务部门分别飙升119%和近七倍。</blockquote> Circling back to management’s warning of lower student loan refinancing volumes for the rest of the year, the adverse impact that the news had on SoFi’s share price is not expected to persist for long. SoFi’s FSPL business model has continued to propel demand for its other lending products, such as personal loans and mortgages. During the second quarter, the volume of refinanced student loans handled by SoFi had already dropped by more than half compared to pre-CARES Act levels. Yet, the lending segment’s total funded volume across all lending products still grew by 66% to $2.9 billion, resulting in strong double-digit year-over-year growth in the segment’s revenues. Despite management’s expectations to lose out on another $40 million in student-loan refinancing later this year due to the U.S. government’s&nbsp;extension of student loan relief&nbsp;to January 31st, 2022, it is clear that SoFi’s lending business will continue to post unstoppable growth ahead regardless. And this is especially true when student loan refinancing volumes pick up again in 2022, thanks to the self-reinforcing virtuous cycle of growth that SoFi’s FSPL business model has bolstered.<blockquote>回到管理层关于今年剩余时间学生贷款再融资额下降的警告，该消息对SoFi股价的不利影响预计不会持续太久。SoFi的FSPL商业模式继续推动对其其他贷款产品（例如个人贷款和抵押贷款）的需求。第二季度，SoFi处理的再融资学生贷款数量与CARES法案之前的水平相比已经下降了一半以上。然而，贷款部门所有贷款产品的融资总额仍增长了66%，达到29亿美元，导致该部门的收入同比强劲增长两位数。尽管管理层预计，由于美国政府将学生贷款减免延长至2022年1月31日，今年晚些时候将再损失4000万美元的学生贷款再融资，但很明显，无论如何，SoFi的贷款业务将继续实现不可阻挡的增长。由于SoFi的FSPL商业模式所支持的自我强化的良性增长循环，当学生贷款再融资量在2022年再次回升时尤其如此。</blockquote> National Bank Charter<blockquote>国家银行章程</blockquote> SoFi’s announcement to&nbsp;acquire Golden Pacific Bancorp(“GPB”) in March is also expected to accelerate its process in obtaining a national bank charter, which is another key catalyst to boosting the stock’s valuation. For context, SoFi had already applied for a national bank charter last summer, and received conditional approval in October. And the acquisition of GPB, which is expected to close before the end of the year, will likely fast-track the full approval process for SoFi’s national bank charter as soon as this year. A similar strategy has been proven effective for some of SoFi’s fintech peers, including Square and LendingClub, which obtained approval for a national banking charter shortly after their respective acquisitions of smaller community banks.<blockquote>SoFi在3月份宣布收购Golden Pacific Bancorp（“GPB”），预计也将加速其获得国家银行牌照的进程，这是提振该股估值的另一个关键催化剂。就背景而言，SoFi已于去年夏天申请国家银行牌照，并于10月获得有条件批准。对GPB的收购预计将于今年年底前完成，最快可能会在今年加快SoFi国家银行牌照的全面审批流程。类似的策略已被证明对SoFi的一些金融科技同行有效，包括Square和LendingClub，它们在各自收购较小的社区银行后不久就获得了国家银行牌照的批准。</blockquote> A national bank charter will be critical to taking SoFi’s growth to the next level, especially for its lending business. SoFi’s lending platform has always been at the forefront of its business, accounting for 86% of the company’s revenues in 2020. It is also currently SoFi’s most profitable business segment, with a contribution margin of close to 54%. A national bank charter will allow SoFi to further its lending capabilities by allowing loans made with member deposits instead of capital borrowed from third-party banks. This accordingly lowers the business’ overall costs of capital, allowing for greater margin expansion over time.<blockquote>国家银行牌照对于将SoFi的增长提升到一个新的水平至关重要，尤其是对其贷款业务而言。SoFi的借贷平台一直走在业务前列，2020年占公司收入的86%。也是目前SoFi最赚钱的业务板块，贡献率接近54%。国家银行章程将允许SoFi通过允许用会员存款而不是从第三方银行借入的资本发放贷款来进一步增强其贷款能力。这相应地降低了企业的总体资本成本，从而随着时间的推移实现更大的利润率扩张。</blockquote> A national bank charter would also be important for expanding SoFi’s financial services business segment, which is currently operating at a loss. The acquisition of GPB, combined with having a national bank charter, is expected to encourage further member deposits through SoFi. This is a critical step to achieving the company’s goal of becoming its members’ “primary bank account”. It would also help SoFi increase its market penetration rate into the 500 million retail personal banking accounts currently housed in traditional American megabanks that have yet to experience virtual banking. The bank charter is expected to help SoFi drive greater membership growth and engagement across its financial services platforms, and enable additional cost-efficiencies and margin expansion through scale in the long-run.<blockquote>国家银行牌照对于扩大SoFi的金融服务业务部门也很重要，该业务目前处于亏损状态。收购GPB，加上拥有国家银行牌照，预计将鼓励更多会员通过SoFi存款。这是实现公司成为其成员“主要银行账户”目标的关键一步。它还将帮助SoFi提高其对5亿零售个人银行账户的市场渗透率，这些账户目前存放在尚未体验虚拟银行业务的美国传统大型银行中。该银行章程预计将帮助SoFi推动其金融服务平台的会员增长和参与度，并从长远来看通过规模实现额外的成本效率和利润扩张。</blockquote> Obtaining a national bank charter would also work hand in hand with SoFi’s payment solutions infrastructure platform, Galileo. Galileo already enables profit-sharing for SoFi, as the payment solutions platform primarily services&nbsp;SoFi’s competition, such as Robinhood. The platform also provides the payment solutions infrastructure for SoFi Money, driving cost synergies through vertical integration. Together with a national bank charter, it would become easier for SoFi to engage in strategic partnerships with other companies to offer additional products such as “sweep accounts, FDIC insurance warehouse facilities, etc.”, and drive greater sales for the business segment going forward.<blockquote>获得国家银行执照还将与SoFi的支付解决方案基础设施平台Galileo携手合作。Galileo已经为SoFi实现了利润分享，因为该支付解决方案平台主要为SoFi的竞争对手（例如Robinhood）提供服务。该平台还为SoFi Money提供支付解决方案基础设施，通过垂直整合推动成本协同效应。再加上国家银行章程，SoFi将更容易与其他公司建立战略合作伙伴关系，提供“清扫账户、FDIC保险仓库设施等”等额外产品，并推动该业务部门未来的更大销售额。</blockquote> Having a national bank charter is expected to drive material benefits to SoFi’s financial performance as well. Due to the cost-efficiencies and growth synergies achievable through having a national bank charter, SoFi’s projected adjusted EBITDA in 2022 is expected to jump by 76% from $254 million to $447 million. And over the next five years, obtaining a national bank charter is expected to drive cumulative incremental EBITDA of more than $1 billion for SoFi. This would make a material bump to the company’s intrinsic value, which should be reflected as upside realization for the stock in the near-term.<blockquote>拥有国家银行执照预计也将为SoFi的财务业绩带来实质性好处。由于拥有国家银行牌照可实现成本效率和增长协同效应，SoFi预计2022年调整后EBITDA预计将增长76%，从2.54亿美元增至4.47亿美元。未来五年，获得国家银行牌照预计将为SoFi带来超过10亿美元的累计增量EBITDA。这将对公司的内在价值产生重大影响，这应该反映在该股短期内的上涨实现上。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c58c360b20e4c03b3b171b74eea059\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: SoFi Investor Presentation.<blockquote>资料来源：SoFi投资者介绍。</blockquote> Digital Transformation Tailwinds<blockquote>数字化转型顺风</blockquote> The advent of innovative technology, combined with COVID-related disruptions experienced in the last 18 months, have accelerated demands for convenient and easy-to-use virtual banking platforms. According to&nbsp;Adjust’s&nbsp;global app trends report, fintech app usage grew by 85% year-over-year during the pandemic, and has continued to surge by another 49% in the first half of 2021. More than 45% of fintech app users indicated that their banking habits have “permanently changed” since the onset of the pandemic. This has created a strong foundation of high-growth opportunities within the fintech scene, which SoFi is well-positioned to capitalize on with its multi-product business model. The company’s ability to keep prices at competitive levels compared to traditional banks is also expected to drive greater appeal to the younger generation, which is currently the dominant demographic of virtual banking app users. Out of more than 30% of Americans who either have an account or are planning to open an account with a virtual bank,56% are under the age of 40.<blockquote>创新技术的出现，加上过去18个月中经历的与COVID相关的中断，加速了对方便易用的虚拟银行平台的需求。根据Adjust的全球应用趋势报告，金融科技应用的使用量在疫情期间同比增长了85%，并在2021年上半年继续飙升49%。超过45%的金融科技应用用户表示，自疫情爆发以来，他们的银行习惯已经“永久改变”。这为金融科技领域的高增长机会奠定了坚实的基础，SoFi有能力通过其多产品商业模式充分利用这一机会。与传统银行相比，该公司将价格保持在有竞争力的水平的能力预计也将对年轻一代产生更大的吸引力，年轻一代是目前虚拟银行应用程序用户的主要人群。在超过30%拥有虚拟银行账户或计划开设虚拟银行账户的美国人中，56%的人年龄在40岁以下。</blockquote> Obtaining a national bank charter also comes at an opportune time for SoFi. The global digital lending industry is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of at least 25% through to 2025, and at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2030. Meanwhile, the broader digital banking sector is forecasted to keep growing at a CAGR of at least&nbsp;13.8%&nbsp;up to&nbsp;29.9%&nbsp;through to 2030. The additional growth opportunities available to SoFi, combined with the cost synergies enabled by a national bank charter, is expected to set the stage for profitability sooner than expected. A national bank charter would also enable SoFi to maximize capitalization on the high-growth opportunities ahead, creating additional upside for the stock in the near-term.<blockquote>对于SoFi来说，获得国家银行牌照也恰逢其时。预计到2025年，全球数字借贷行业的复合年增长率（“CAGR”）至少为25%，2025年至2030年的复合年增长率为5.5%。与此同时，更广泛的数字银行业预计将以至少13.8%至29.9%的复合年增长率保持增长。SoFi获得的额外增长机会，加上国家银行章程带来的成本协同效应，预计将比预期更快地实现盈利。国家银行章程还将使SoFi能够最大限度地利用未来的高增长机会，从而在短期内为该股创造额外的上涨空间。</blockquote> Financial Prospects Recap<blockquote>财务前景回顾</blockquote> The growth catalysts will underpin SoFi’s financial performance over the next ten years as the global transition to digital continues to take place. As analyzed in detail by business segment in our&nbsp;recent coverage&nbsp;on the stock, SoFi is expected to generate total net revenue of $968.8 million by the end of the year, representing year-over-year growth of 56%. The top-line is projected to experience further accelerated growth at a CAGR of 19.3% towards $5.7 billion by 2030 as a result of increasing adoption of virtual banking channels.<blockquote>随着全球向数字化转型的持续进行，增长催化剂将支撑SoFi未来十年的财务业绩。正如我们最近对该股的报道中按业务部门详细分析的那样，SoFi预计到今年年底将产生9.688亿美元的总净收入，同比增长56%。由于虚拟银行渠道的采用越来越多，预计到2030年，营收将以19.3%的复合年增长率进一步加速增长，达到57亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fdc65293620b1295cb42ed09128f1f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (SoFi_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测(SoFi_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf)。</blockquote> Total non-interest expenses, which consist of technology and product development, sales and marketing, cost of operations, general and administrative, and other nominal spending, are forecasted at $1.6 billion by the end of the year. Related cost items are expected to represent a higher percentage of total revenues through to 2025 to support SoFi’s ongoing growth initiatives, which include further development to its portfolio of service offering and overseas expansion. Yet, these expenses will be partially offset by cost-savings achieved through the FSPL business model and synergies realizable after obtaining a national bank charter, which would accordingly lead to narrowing losses through to 2023.<blockquote>预计到今年年底，非利息支出总额（包括技术和产品开发、销售和营销、运营成本、一般和管理以及其他名义支出）为16亿美元。预计到2025年，相关成本项目将占总收入的更高比例，以支持SoFi持续的增长计划，其中包括进一步发展其服务组合和海外扩张。然而，这些费用将被通过FSPL业务模式实现的成本节约以及获得国家银行牌照后可实现的协同效应部分抵消，这将相应地导致到2023年亏损收窄。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a7f2b3bde0cb99d79b6ab908c61372\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> SoFi is expected to generate profits of $402.3 million as soon as 2024, with growth at a CAGR of 27.6% towards $1.7 billion by 2030.<blockquote>SoFi预计最早将在2024年产生4.023亿美元的利润，复合年增长率为27.6%，到2030年将达到17亿美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0390c07005e43ce9bebef7346f0cf26d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> i. Base Case Financial Forecast:<blockquote>i.基本情况财务预测：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bca21d0fa161c8fb2a9ff60eda96b8c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</blockquote> Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a720544b7678e2991cf1e17d3edacb5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"197\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> Our bullish outlook on SoFi remains unchanged from our previous coverage, with a 12-month price target of $20.96 despite recent price pressures on the stock. This represents upside potential of more than 38% based on the last traded price of $15.16 on September 3rd.<blockquote>尽管该股最近面临价格压力，但我们对SoFi的看涨前景与之前的报道保持不变，12个月目标价为20.96美元。基于9月3日15.16美元的最后交易价格，这意味着上涨潜力超过38%。</blockquote> The price target is derived using a multiples-based valuation approach. We have applied a price-to-sales multiple of 17.3x to projected total net revenues per share for 2021 to determine the 12-month price target. The multiple is consistent with those of SoFi’s industry peers, as well as market expectations on the company’s near-term valuation based on its current operating environment, business developments, and growth trajectory.<blockquote>价格目标是使用基于倍数的估值方法得出的。我们对2021年预计每股净收入总额应用了17.3倍的市销率，以确定12个月的价格目标。该倍数与SoFi行业同行的倍数一致，也与市场基于其当前运营环境、业务发展和增长轨迹对公司近期估值的预期一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cdea4d655a868c9515c98e2c0149a47\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"70\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.<blockquote>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</blockquote> Conclusion<blockquote>结论</blockquote> The stock’s recent pullback makes an attractive buying opportunity. This rings especially true with the anticipated approval of a national bank charter that is expected to materialize within the next 12 months, which will materially transform SoFi’s overall growth prospects. SoFi’s differentiated business model also makes it well-positioned to capitalize on the significant additional growth opportunities ahead as retail customers look to add reliable and affordable virtual platforms to their banking routines.<blockquote>该股最近的回调是一个有吸引力的买入机会。随着国家银行章程的批准预计将在未来12个月内实现，这一点尤其正确，这将极大地改变SoFi的整体增长前景。随着零售客户希望在其银行业务中添加可靠且经济实惠的虚拟平台，SoFi的差异化业务模式也使其能够充分利用未来重大的额外增长机会。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453893-sofi-stock-buy-sell-after-recent-dip\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453893-sofi-stock-buy-sell-after-recent-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181361598","content_text":"Summary\n\nSoFi has traded down by about 35% since it completed its reverse SPAC merger IPO in early June.\nThe downward price pressures come as a result of the stock’s lock-up expiration, and management’s soft revenue outlook due to lower student loan refinancing volumes until 2022.\nHowever, the recent volatility is expected to be transitory, with significant upside realization to resume in the near-term ahead of material catalysts on which SoFi’s long-term growth is built on.\nThe anticipated approval of a national bank charter for SoFi is expected to materialize within the next 12 months, which will materially transform the company's overall growth prospects.\nCombined with its cost-efficient multi-product business model and ongoing digital transformation tailwinds for the industry, SoFi is well-positioned for upside realization of as much as 38% in the near-term.\n\nBrian Ach/Getty Images Entertainment\nSoFi (Nasdaq:SOFI) has been traded down about 35% since it completed its reverse SPAC merger IPO in early June. The downward price pressures observed in recent months come as a result of the stock’s lock-up expiration, as well as management’s soft revenue guidance issued as a result of lower student loan refinancing volumes for the rest of the year.\nHowever, the recent volatility is expected to be transitory, with significant upside realization to resume in the near-term ahead of material catalysts on which SoFi’s long-term growth is built on. The advent of innovative technology, combined with COVID-related disruptions experienced in the last 18 months have accelerated the global transition to digital. This makes strong tailwinds for SoFi as it looks to disrupt a long-standing traditional industry like banking. The company’s multi-product business model, combined with the anticipated approval for a national bank charter is expected to further its operations by extending its lending capabilities and financial service offerings. The developments will also allow for greater cost-efficiencies, which underpins greater growth and margin expansion in the long-run. Consistent with our recent coverage on the stock, our outlook remains bullish with a 12-month price target set at $20.96. This represents upside potential of more than 38% based on the last traded price of $15.16 on September 3rd.\nWhy Did SoFi Stock Plunge?\nSoFi closed at almost $23 on June 1stupon its debut on the Nasdaq following the completion of its reverse SPAC merger with Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp. V. The stock’s performance remained range-bound at the $20-level for the month before plummeting by almost 20% in July. This marked the first wave of the stock’s price plunge, triggered by the lock-up expiration on shares held by early investors in the company. According to the stock’s prospectus filing, the lock-up period was equivalent to the earlier of i) 180 trading days for all shares held by early investors, or 2) when the stock trades above $12.50 for 20 of 30 trading days for 33% of shares held by early investors, and when the stock trades above $15.00 for 20 or 30 trading days for an additional 50% of shares held by early investors. Because SoFi traded above both the $12.50 and $15.00 threshold throughout June, it triggered an early lock-up period expiration for 83% of shares held by early investors. This allowed some to offload their positions and realize gains at market value throughout July. And because of the additional SoFi shares pushed into the market, the stock experienced significant price dilution throughout the month before stabilizing at $15 to $16 apiece at the end of July.\nThe stock plummeted by another 14% from about $18 to $15 in mid-August following SoFi’s second quarter earnings call, despite topping Q2 sales estimates and more than doubling its membership base. This marked the second wave of the stock’s price plunge, triggered by management’s warning of reduced student loan refinancing volumes through the end of the year due to the extension of the U.S. government’s student loan moratorium.\nMaterial Catalysts for a Valuation Boost Ahead\nTo date, the stock has traded down by approximately 35% since it went IPO three months ago, and has largely remained range-bound at the $14- to $15-level in recent weeks. However, SoFi’s share price is not expected to stay staggered for long. The company’s multi-product business model, combined with the anticipated approval of a national bank charter, are expected to be material catalysts for a valuation boost ahead. The developments are also expected to help SoFi drive higher capitalization on global digital transformation tailwinds, which the broader fintech sector has continued to benefit from.\nSoFi’s “Financial Services Productivity Loop” Business Model\nThe company’s multi-product business model has continued to attract new sign-ups and drive surging revenue growth across the business, while maintaining cost-efficiencies to facilitate additional margin expansion. Through its “Financial Services Productivity Loop” (“FSPL”) business model, SoFi is gradually achieving a “flywheel” effect in its operations. The FSPL business model is essentially a multi-product business model that promotes cross-selling opportunities, while minimizing customer acquisition costs. For instance, SoFi’s commission-free investing platform, “SoFi Invest”, may not be making large profits for the company, but it helps to build its membership base and increase engagement. And over time, when SoFi Invest members start to use additional SoFi products, such as its higher-margin lending services, SoFi’s sales will increase while having incurred zero incremental customer acquisition costs. This strategy helps the company generate sufficient funds for reinvesting into further expansion of its offerings, and subsequently lowering costs through scale that can be passed on to customers to attract higher engagement. It also becomes a “self-reinforcing virtuous cycle” for facilitating the company’s continued growth.\nSource: SoFi Investor Presentation.\nThe strategy has continued to underpin SoFi’s robust sales and membership growth momentum achieved over the years. SoFi currently serves more than 1.85 million members, up 90% from the prior year, and is expected to reach three million members by the end of the year. And from a sales standpoint, each of its lending, financial services and technology business segments have achieved high double- to triple-digit growth in recent quarters, a testament to the effectiveness of its FSPL business model. SoFi’s most profitable lending segment grew 47% year-over-year during the second quarter, while its lower-margin technology and financial services segments soared 119% and close to seven-fold, respectively.\nCircling back to management’s warning of lower student loan refinancing volumes for the rest of the year, the adverse impact that the news had on SoFi’s share price is not expected to persist for long. SoFi’s FSPL business model has continued to propel demand for its other lending products, such as personal loans and mortgages. During the second quarter, the volume of refinanced student loans handled by SoFi had already dropped by more than half compared to pre-CARES Act levels. Yet, the lending segment’s total funded volume across all lending products still grew by 66% to $2.9 billion, resulting in strong double-digit year-over-year growth in the segment’s revenues. Despite management’s expectations to lose out on another $40 million in student-loan refinancing later this year due to the U.S. government’s extension of student loan relief to January 31st, 2022, it is clear that SoFi’s lending business will continue to post unstoppable growth ahead regardless. And this is especially true when student loan refinancing volumes pick up again in 2022, thanks to the self-reinforcing virtuous cycle of growth that SoFi’s FSPL business model has bolstered.\nNational Bank Charter\nSoFi’s announcement to acquire Golden Pacific Bancorp(“GPB”) in March is also expected to accelerate its process in obtaining a national bank charter, which is another key catalyst to boosting the stock’s valuation. For context, SoFi had already applied for a national bank charter last summer, and received conditional approval in October. And the acquisition of GPB, which is expected to close before the end of the year, will likely fast-track the full approval process for SoFi’s national bank charter as soon as this year. A similar strategy has been proven effective for some of SoFi’s fintech peers, including Square and LendingClub, which obtained approval for a national banking charter shortly after their respective acquisitions of smaller community banks.\nA national bank charter will be critical to taking SoFi’s growth to the next level, especially for its lending business. SoFi’s lending platform has always been at the forefront of its business, accounting for 86% of the company’s revenues in 2020. It is also currently SoFi’s most profitable business segment, with a contribution margin of close to 54%. A national bank charter will allow SoFi to further its lending capabilities by allowing loans made with member deposits instead of capital borrowed from third-party banks. This accordingly lowers the business’ overall costs of capital, allowing for greater margin expansion over time.\nA national bank charter would also be important for expanding SoFi’s financial services business segment, which is currently operating at a loss. The acquisition of GPB, combined with having a national bank charter, is expected to encourage further member deposits through SoFi. This is a critical step to achieving the company’s goal of becoming its members’ “primary bank account”. It would also help SoFi increase its market penetration rate into the 500 million retail personal banking accounts currently housed in traditional American megabanks that have yet to experience virtual banking. The bank charter is expected to help SoFi drive greater membership growth and engagement across its financial services platforms, and enable additional cost-efficiencies and margin expansion through scale in the long-run.\nObtaining a national bank charter would also work hand in hand with SoFi’s payment solutions infrastructure platform, Galileo. Galileo already enables profit-sharing for SoFi, as the payment solutions platform primarily services SoFi’s competition, such as Robinhood. The platform also provides the payment solutions infrastructure for SoFi Money, driving cost synergies through vertical integration. Together with a national bank charter, it would become easier for SoFi to engage in strategic partnerships with other companies to offer additional products such as “sweep accounts, FDIC insurance warehouse facilities, etc.”, and drive greater sales for the business segment going forward.\nHaving a national bank charter is expected to drive material benefits to SoFi’s financial performance as well. Due to the cost-efficiencies and growth synergies achievable through having a national bank charter, SoFi’s projected adjusted EBITDA in 2022 is expected to jump by 76% from $254 million to $447 million. And over the next five years, obtaining a national bank charter is expected to drive cumulative incremental EBITDA of more than $1 billion for SoFi. This would make a material bump to the company’s intrinsic value, which should be reflected as upside realization for the stock in the near-term.\nSource: SoFi Investor Presentation.\nDigital Transformation Tailwinds\nThe advent of innovative technology, combined with COVID-related disruptions experienced in the last 18 months, have accelerated demands for convenient and easy-to-use virtual banking platforms. According to Adjust’s global app trends report, fintech app usage grew by 85% year-over-year during the pandemic, and has continued to surge by another 49% in the first half of 2021. More than 45% of fintech app users indicated that their banking habits have “permanently changed” since the onset of the pandemic. This has created a strong foundation of high-growth opportunities within the fintech scene, which SoFi is well-positioned to capitalize on with its multi-product business model. The company’s ability to keep prices at competitive levels compared to traditional banks is also expected to drive greater appeal to the younger generation, which is currently the dominant demographic of virtual banking app users. Out of more than 30% of Americans who either have an account or are planning to open an account with a virtual bank,56% are under the age of 40.\nObtaining a national bank charter also comes at an opportune time for SoFi. The global digital lending industry is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of at least 25% through to 2025, and at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2030. Meanwhile, the broader digital banking sector is forecasted to keep growing at a CAGR of at least 13.8% up to 29.9% through to 2030. The additional growth opportunities available to SoFi, combined with the cost synergies enabled by a national bank charter, is expected to set the stage for profitability sooner than expected. A national bank charter would also enable SoFi to maximize capitalization on the high-growth opportunities ahead, creating additional upside for the stock in the near-term.\nFinancial Prospects Recap\nThe growth catalysts will underpin SoFi’s financial performance over the next ten years as the global transition to digital continues to take place. As analyzed in detail by business segment in our recent coverage on the stock, SoFi is expected to generate total net revenue of $968.8 million by the end of the year, representing year-over-year growth of 56%. The top-line is projected to experience further accelerated growth at a CAGR of 19.3% towards $5.7 billion by 2030 as a result of increasing adoption of virtual banking channels.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (SoFi_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nTotal non-interest expenses, which consist of technology and product development, sales and marketing, cost of operations, general and administrative, and other nominal spending, are forecasted at $1.6 billion by the end of the year. Related cost items are expected to represent a higher percentage of total revenues through to 2025 to support SoFi’s ongoing growth initiatives, which include further development to its portfolio of service offering and overseas expansion. Yet, these expenses will be partially offset by cost-savings achieved through the FSPL business model and synergies realizable after obtaining a national bank charter, which would accordingly lead to narrowing losses through to 2023.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\nSoFi is expected to generate profits of $402.3 million as soon as 2024, with growth at a CAGR of 27.6% towards $1.7 billion by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecast:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\nValuation\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOur bullish outlook on SoFi remains unchanged from our previous coverage, with a 12-month price target of $20.96 despite recent price pressures on the stock. This represents upside potential of more than 38% based on the last traded price of $15.16 on September 3rd.\nThe price target is derived using a multiples-based valuation approach. We have applied a price-to-sales multiple of 17.3x to projected total net revenues per share for 2021 to determine the 12-month price target. The multiple is consistent with those of SoFi’s industry peers, as well as market expectations on the company’s near-term valuation based on its current operating environment, business developments, and growth trajectory.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nThe stock’s recent pullback makes an attractive buying opportunity. This rings especially true with the anticipated approval of a national bank charter that is expected to materialize within the next 12 months, which will materially transform SoFi’s overall growth prospects. SoFi’s differentiated business model also makes it well-positioned to capitalize on the significant additional growth opportunities ahead as retail customers look to add reliable and affordable virtual platforms to their banking routines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":33,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/889096872"}