Aiyo I m waiting to let go. Do_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-09-13

Aiyo I m waiting to let go. Don’t know when is the best time

Risk of 'hard' stock-market valuation correction is growing, says Deutsche Bank -- here's why<blockquote>德意志银行表示，“硬”股市估值修正的风险正在增加——原因如下</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":888172024,"tweetId":"888172024","gmtCreate":1631469076368,"gmtModify":1631892582319,"author":{"id":4091101047149840,"idStr":"4091101047149840","authorId":4091101047149840,"authorIdStr":"4091101047149840","name":"Power1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a46b190be5bdc3ed9183051f9036c1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Aiyo I m waiting to let go. Don’t know when is the best time</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Aiyo I m waiting to let go. Don’t know when is the best time</body></html>","text":"Aiyo I m waiting to let go. Don’t know when is the best time","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888172024","repostId":2166537600,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166537600","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631318207,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2166537600?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 07:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Risk of 'hard' stock-market valuation correction is growing, says Deutsche Bank -- here's why<blockquote>德意志银行表示，“硬”股市估值修正的风险正在增加——原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166537600","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"High multiples reflect 'market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle': Chadha\nLost in th","content":"High multiples reflect 'market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle': Chadha<blockquote>高市盈率反映了“市场对我们在盈利周期中所处位置的困惑”：Chadha</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4dd275ed18f5023ec5874e9d6d56ce\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Lost in the earnings cycle?<blockquote>迷失在盈利周期中？</blockquote> Stock-market valuations are \"historically extreme\" by almost every measure. And while valuation corrections don't necessarily result in market pullbacks, the risk of a \"hard\" correction is growing, warned a top Wall Street strategist.<blockquote>从几乎所有指标来看，股市估值都是“历史极端”的。华尔街一位顶级策略师警告说，虽然估值调整不一定会导致市场回调，但“硬”调整的风险正在增加。</blockquote> \"With the current cycle advancing very quickly, the risk that the correction is hard is growing,\" wrote Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>德意志银行首席策略师 Binky Chadha 在周四的一份报告中写道：“随着当前周期进展非常迅速，调整困难的风险正在增加。”</blockquote> The warning comes as Wall Street firms have expressed nervousness as equities continue to rally, pushing major indexes to all-time highs, without any significant pullbacks. Including Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has gone 214 trading days without a 5% pullback, rising more than 33% over that stretch. That's the longest run without a pullback since a 404-day run that ended on Feb. 2, ,2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<blockquote>发出这一警告之际，华尔街公司表示紧张，因为股市继续上涨，将主要股指推至历史高点，但没有任何重大回调。包括周五在内，标普500已经连续 214 个交易日没有回调 5%，在此期间上涨超过 33%。根据道琼斯市场数据，这是自 2018 年 2 月 2 日结束的 404 天运行以来最长的没有回调的运行。</blockquote> Major indexes were on track to lose ground for the week Friday, with the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average threatening to extend a losing streak to five sessions. The S&amp;P 500 is down just 1% from a record close hit on Sept. 3 and has more than doubled from its March 2020 pandemic low.<blockquote>周五，主要股指本周有望下跌，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数有可能将连跌延长至五个交易日。标普500仅较 9 月 3 日创纪录的收盘下跌 1%，较 2020 年 3 月大流行低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote> Chadha noted that while equities are \"very expensive,\" that fact alone doesn't require a large market correction. That's because valuations can fall if rising stock prices are outpaced by earnings growth, shrinking the price-to-earnings ratio even as share prices rise.<blockquote>查达指出，虽然股票“非常昂贵”，但这一事实本身并不需要市场进行大幅调整。这是因为如果股价上涨超过盈利增长，估值可能会下降，即使股价上涨，市盈率也会缩小。</blockquote> Those types of soft valuation corrections are typically seen early in a recovery when earnings growth is rapid, he said. During this recovery, however, the \"compression\" in earnings multiples has been slow and uneven, Chadha observed.<blockquote>他说，这些类型的软估值调整通常出现在复苏初期，此时盈利增长迅速。然而，查达观察到，在这次复苏期间，市盈率的“压缩”是缓慢且不均匀的。</blockquote> Using trailing 12-month earnings, the price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio for the S&amp;P 500 moved from a low of 14 at the depths of the pandemic 27 at the start of 2021. It has subsequently compressed to 23.1, a decline of 14%, as earnings outpaced the rise in prices, but remains 15% above its historical range of 10 to 20, he noted.<blockquote>根据过去 12 个月的收益，标普500的市盈率 (P/E) 从 2021 年初大流行 27 时的低点 14 升至 14。他指出，由于盈利超过了价格上涨，该指数随后压缩至 23.1，下降了 14%，但仍比 10 至 20 的历史区间高出 15%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee77cba9751ddd0cb4c42c1d02ed436d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote> Multiples based on forward earnings estimates have been going sideways at an elevated level. Other ratios, such as enterprise value, or EV, relative to EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and EV/EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) are down modestly from record highs but remain above their tech bubble peaks, Chadha said, while cash-flow based valuations have continued to rise.<blockquote>基于远期盈利预测的市盈率一直在较高水平上横盘整理。Chadha 表示，相对于 EBIT（息税前利润）和 EV/EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）的其他比率（例如企业价值或 EV）较历史高点略有下降，但仍高于科技泡沫峰值，而基于现金流的估值则持续上升。</blockquote> Chadha said a \"surprisingly rapid rebound\" in earnings is the most likely explanation for the extreme valuations, noting that S&amp;P 500 earnings have topped the bottom-up analyst consensus estimate by an unprecedented 15 to 20 percentage points for five consecutive quarters. But that dynamic appears set to end, he said, noting the analyst consensus appears to have caught up, while the pace of earnings beats and upgrades, a key driver of equity upside, is set to slow.<blockquote>查达表示，盈利“令人惊讶的快速反弹”是极端估值的最可能解释，并指出标普500盈利已连续五个季度史无前例地超出分析师自下而上的一致预期 15 至 20 个百分点。但他表示，这种动态似乎即将结束，并指出分析师的共识似乎已经赶上，而股市上涨的关键驱动力——盈利超出和升级的步伐将会放缓。</blockquote> \"At a fundamental level, we believe the key reason multiples are high is market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle, in part reflecting the speed and surprise with which the economic recovery has unfolded and the large persistent beats this generated,\" he wrote.<blockquote>“从基本面来看，我们认为市盈率较高的关键原因是市场对我们所处的盈利周期感到困惑，这在一定程度上反映了经济复苏的速度和意外，以及由此产生的巨大持续打击，”他写道。</blockquote> And since gross domestic product is still well below trend, there is a popular view that the best of the recovery has yet to come, Chadha said. The problem is that the parts of the economy that S&amp;P 500 companies are most exposed to are already significantly above trend, he said, with 2/3 of S&amp;P 500 industry groups showing activity levels that are one standard deviation or more above trend (see chart below).<blockquote>查达说，由于国内生产总值仍远低于趋势，人们普遍认为复苏的最佳时期尚未到来。他说，问题在于，标普500公司接触最多的经济领域已经明显高于趋势，2/3的标普500行业集团的活动水平比趋势高出一个标准差或更多（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff72fc4d219104d5d04ba1768dce6f5a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote> \" So the cycle is much more advanced and the risk is that activity begins to slow, while the market is priced for most of the recovery as yet to come and large beats to continue,\" he said.<blockquote>“因此，周期要先进得多，风险在于经济活动开始放缓，而市场对复苏的大部分时间尚未到来以及大幅上涨的预期仍在继续，”他表示。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Risk of 'hard' stock-market valuation correction is growing, says Deutsche Bank -- here's why<blockquote>德意志银行表示，“硬”股市估值修正的风险正在增加——原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRisk of 'hard' stock-market valuation correction is growing, says Deutsche Bank -- here's why<blockquote>德意志银行表示，“硬”股市估值修正的风险正在增加——原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-09-11 07:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHigh multiples reflect 'market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle': Chadha<blockquote>高市盈率反映了“市场对我们在盈利周期中所处位置的困惑”：Chadha</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4dd275ed18f5023ec5874e9d6d56ce\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Lost in the earnings cycle?<blockquote>迷失在盈利周期中？</blockquote> Stock-market valuations are \"historically extreme\" by almost every measure. And while valuation corrections don't necessarily result in market pullbacks, the risk of a \"hard\" correction is growing, warned a top Wall Street strategist.<blockquote>从几乎所有指标来看，股市估值都是“历史极端”的。华尔街一位顶级策略师警告说，虽然估值调整不一定会导致市场回调，但“硬”调整的风险正在增加。</blockquote> \"With the current cycle advancing very quickly, the risk that the correction is hard is growing,\" wrote Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Thursday note.<blockquote>德意志银行首席策略师 Binky Chadha 在周四的一份报告中写道：“随着当前周期进展非常迅速，调整困难的风险正在增加。”</blockquote> The warning comes as Wall Street firms have expressed nervousness as equities continue to rally, pushing major indexes to all-time highs, without any significant pullbacks. Including Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has gone 214 trading days without a 5% pullback, rising more than 33% over that stretch. That's the longest run without a pullback since a 404-day run that ended on Feb. 2, ,2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data.<blockquote>发出这一警告之际，华尔街公司表示紧张，因为股市继续上涨，将主要股指推至历史高点，但没有任何重大回调。包括周五在内，标普500已经连续 214 个交易日没有回调 5%，在此期间上涨超过 33%。根据道琼斯市场数据，这是自 2018 年 2 月 2 日结束的 404 天运行以来最长的没有回调的运行。</blockquote> Major indexes were on track to lose ground for the week Friday, with the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average threatening to extend a losing streak to five sessions. The S&amp;P 500 is down just 1% from a record close hit on Sept. 3 and has more than doubled from its March 2020 pandemic low.<blockquote>周五，主要股指本周有望下跌，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数有可能将连跌延长至五个交易日。标普500仅较 9 月 3 日创纪录的收盘下跌 1%，较 2020 年 3 月大流行低点上涨了一倍多。</blockquote> Chadha noted that while equities are \"very expensive,\" that fact alone doesn't require a large market correction. That's because valuations can fall if rising stock prices are outpaced by earnings growth, shrinking the price-to-earnings ratio even as share prices rise.<blockquote>查达指出，虽然股票“非常昂贵”，但这一事实本身并不需要市场进行大幅调整。这是因为如果股价上涨超过盈利增长，估值可能会下降，即使股价上涨，市盈率也会缩小。</blockquote> Those types of soft valuation corrections are typically seen early in a recovery when earnings growth is rapid, he said. During this recovery, however, the \"compression\" in earnings multiples has been slow and uneven, Chadha observed.<blockquote>他说，这些类型的软估值调整通常出现在复苏初期，此时盈利增长迅速。然而，查达观察到，在这次复苏期间，市盈率的“压缩”是缓慢且不均匀的。</blockquote> Using trailing 12-month earnings, the price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio for the S&amp;P 500 moved from a low of 14 at the depths of the pandemic 27 at the start of 2021. It has subsequently compressed to 23.1, a decline of 14%, as earnings outpaced the rise in prices, but remains 15% above its historical range of 10 to 20, he noted.<blockquote>根据过去 12 个月的收益，标普500的市盈率 (P/E) 从 2021 年初大流行 27 时的低点 14 升至 14。他指出，由于盈利超过了价格上涨，该指数随后压缩至 23.1，下降了 14%，但仍比 10 至 20 的历史区间高出 15%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee77cba9751ddd0cb4c42c1d02ed436d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote> Multiples based on forward earnings estimates have been going sideways at an elevated level. Other ratios, such as enterprise value, or EV, relative to EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and EV/EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) are down modestly from record highs but remain above their tech bubble peaks, Chadha said, while cash-flow based valuations have continued to rise.<blockquote>基于远期盈利预测的市盈率一直在较高水平上横盘整理。Chadha 表示，相对于 EBIT（息税前利润）和 EV/EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）的其他比率（例如企业价值或 EV）较历史高点略有下降，但仍高于科技泡沫峰值，而基于现金流的估值则持续上升。</blockquote> Chadha said a \"surprisingly rapid rebound\" in earnings is the most likely explanation for the extreme valuations, noting that S&amp;P 500 earnings have topped the bottom-up analyst consensus estimate by an unprecedented 15 to 20 percentage points for five consecutive quarters. But that dynamic appears set to end, he said, noting the analyst consensus appears to have caught up, while the pace of earnings beats and upgrades, a key driver of equity upside, is set to slow.<blockquote>查达表示，盈利“令人惊讶的快速反弹”是极端估值的最可能解释，并指出标普500盈利已连续五个季度史无前例地超出分析师自下而上的一致预期 15 至 20 个百分点。但他表示，这种动态似乎即将结束，并指出分析师的共识似乎已经赶上，而股市上涨的关键驱动力——盈利超出和升级的步伐将会放缓。</blockquote> \"At a fundamental level, we believe the key reason multiples are high is market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle, in part reflecting the speed and surprise with which the economic recovery has unfolded and the large persistent beats this generated,\" he wrote.<blockquote>“从基本面来看，我们认为市盈率较高的关键原因是市场对我们所处的盈利周期感到困惑，这在一定程度上反映了经济复苏的速度和意外，以及由此产生的巨大持续打击，”他写道。</blockquote> And since gross domestic product is still well below trend, there is a popular view that the best of the recovery has yet to come, Chadha said. The problem is that the parts of the economy that S&amp;P 500 companies are most exposed to are already significantly above trend, he said, with 2/3 of S&amp;P 500 industry groups showing activity levels that are one standard deviation or more above trend (see chart below).<blockquote>查达说，由于国内生产总值仍远低于趋势，人们普遍认为复苏的最佳时期尚未到来。他说，问题在于，标普500公司接触最多的经济领域已经明显高于趋势，2/3的标普500行业集团的活动水平比趋势高出一个标准差或更多（见下图）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff72fc4d219104d5d04ba1768dce6f5a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote> \" So the cycle is much more advanced and the risk is that activity begins to slow, while the market is priced for most of the recovery as yet to come and large beats to continue,\" he said.<blockquote>“因此，周期要先进得多，风险在于经济活动开始放缓，而市场对复苏的大部分时间尚未到来以及大幅上涨的预期仍在继续，”他表示。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/risk-of-hard-stock-market-valuation-correction-is-growing-says-deutsche-bank-heres-why-11631292209?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/risk-of-hard-stock-market-valuation-correction-is-growing-says-deutsche-bank-heres-why-11631292209?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166537600","content_text":"High multiples reflect 'market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle': Chadha\nLost in the earnings cycle?\nStock-market valuations are \"historically extreme\" by almost every measure. And while valuation corrections don't necessarily result in market pullbacks, the risk of a \"hard\" correction is growing, warned a top Wall Street strategist.\n\"With the current cycle advancing very quickly, the risk that the correction is hard is growing,\" wrote Binky Chadha, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Thursday note.\nThe warning comes as Wall Street firms have expressed nervousness as equities continue to rally, pushing major indexes to all-time highs, without any significant pullbacks. Including Friday, the S&P 500 has gone 214 trading days without a 5% pullback, rising more than 33% over that stretch. That's the longest run without a pullback since a 404-day run that ended on Feb. 2, ,2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMajor indexes were on track to lose ground for the week Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average threatening to extend a losing streak to five sessions. The S&P 500 is down just 1% from a record close hit on Sept. 3 and has more than doubled from its March 2020 pandemic low.\nChadha noted that while equities are \"very expensive,\" that fact alone doesn't require a large market correction. That's because valuations can fall if rising stock prices are outpaced by earnings growth, shrinking the price-to-earnings ratio even as share prices rise.\nThose types of soft valuation corrections are typically seen early in a recovery when earnings growth is rapid, he said. During this recovery, however, the \"compression\" in earnings multiples has been slow and uneven, Chadha observed.\nUsing trailing 12-month earnings, the price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio for the S&P 500 moved from a low of 14 at the depths of the pandemic 27 at the start of 2021. It has subsequently compressed to 23.1, a decline of 14%, as earnings outpaced the rise in prices, but remains 15% above its historical range of 10 to 20, he noted.\nDeutsche Bank\nMultiples based on forward earnings estimates have been going sideways at an elevated level. Other ratios, such as enterprise value, or EV, relative to EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and EV/EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) are down modestly from record highs but remain above their tech bubble peaks, Chadha said, while cash-flow based valuations have continued to rise.\nChadha said a \"surprisingly rapid rebound\" in earnings is the most likely explanation for the extreme valuations, noting that S&P 500 earnings have topped the bottom-up analyst consensus estimate by an unprecedented 15 to 20 percentage points for five consecutive quarters. But that dynamic appears set to end, he said, noting the analyst consensus appears to have caught up, while the pace of earnings beats and upgrades, a key driver of equity upside, is set to slow.\n\"At a fundamental level, we believe the key reason multiples are high is market confusion over where we are in the earnings cycle, in part reflecting the speed and surprise with which the economic recovery has unfolded and the large persistent beats this generated,\" he wrote.\nAnd since gross domestic product is still well below trend, there is a popular view that the best of the recovery has yet to come, Chadha said. The problem is that the parts of the economy that S&P 500 companies are most exposed to are already significantly above trend, he said, with 2/3 of S&P 500 industry groups showing activity levels that are one standard deviation or more above trend (see chart below).\nDeutsche Bank\n\" So the cycle is much more advanced and the risk is that activity begins to slow, while the market is priced for most of the recovery as yet to come and large beats to continue,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":47,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/888172024"}