Tygress
2021-09-20
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Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time<blockquote>Alphabet股票：这次不要错过</blockquote>
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At the time, the stock was trading for $2,451, and it has since risen about 15% to new highs. I take credit for my bad calls and losses, so permit me to spike the ball in the endzone here for a good one.</p><p><blockquote>早在6月份，我就说搜索传奇<b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)（纳斯达克：GOOGL）在突破新高之前值得买入。当时，该股交易价格为2451美元，此后已上涨约15%至新高。我认为我糟糕的评级和损失是我的功劳，所以请允许我在端区扣球，这是一个好的。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks that have soared like Alphabet tend to take breathers from time to time, and right now, I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Selling was rampant across the whole market last week, but it appears to me Alphabet is setting up for another pause that refreshes before continuing its run higher.</p><p><blockquote>像Alphabet这样飙升的股票往往会时不时地喘口气，现在，我认为这正是我们所看到的。上周整个市场抛售猖獗，但在我看来，Alphabet正在准备再次暂停，然后再继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eebf692d507eedac08fd13298641399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, the price chart looks like it is almost made up; that’s how excellent Alphabet has been at moving from lower-left to upper-right. Any chart that looks like this has to catch your attention, and it has certainly caught mine.</p><p><blockquote>首先，价格图表看起来几乎是编造的；这就是Alphabet从左下到右上的出色表现。任何看起来像这样的图表都必须引起你的注意，当然也引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p> We can see the moving averages have been moving higher, completely uninterrupted by whatever the news of the day has been over the past year, and simply chugging ever higher. The current move down, while small, represents what I think is another chance to pick up Alphabet at a small discount before it makes yet more highs, which I am quite sure it will.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到移动平均线一直在走高，完全不受过去一年当天新闻的干扰，只是越来越高。目前的下跌虽然幅度很小，但我认为这是在Alphabet创下更多高点之前以小幅折扣买入的另一个机会，我很确定它会的。</blockquote></p><p> I said back in June that any test of the 50-day moving average would be a massive buying chance, and I still wholeheartedly believe that. We haven’t seen one since May, but it looks like we may get one this week with the stock having sliced through its 20-day exponential moving average. I’ll repeat what I said three months ago: if we get a test of the 50-day moving average, back up the truck.</p><p><blockquote>我早在6月份就说过，对50日移动平均线的任何测试都将是一个巨大的买入机会，我仍然全心全意地相信这一点。自5月份以来，我们还没有看到过这样的情况，但随着该股突破20日指数移动平均线，本周我们可能会看到这样的情况。我将重复我三个月前说过的话：如果我们测试了50天移动平均线，请备份卡车。</blockquote></p><p> The accumulation/distribution line remains bullish, but the high volume selling we saw last week has caused it to decline a bit. I’m not bothered with that because the trend is still higher, but it is something to watch.</p><p><blockquote>累积/分配线仍然看涨，但我们上周看到的大量抛售导致其略有下降。我对此并不感到困扰，因为趋势仍然更高，但这是值得关注的。</blockquote></p><p> Momentum is telling a similar story where we’ve seen a pullback with the share price, but the PPO is still well into positive territory and the 14-day RSI remains at the centerline. Unless something drastically changes, I see Alphabet’s selling as a pause that refreshes, and not the end of the uptrend.</p><p><blockquote>Momentum讲述了一个类似的故事，我们看到股价回落，但PPO仍处于正值区域，14天RSI仍处于中心线。除非发生巨大变化，否则我认为Alphabet的抛售是一种刷新的暂停，而不是上升趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, I’ve annotated instances of high volume selling that have occurred this year on the chart, and each one of them has been a great chance to pick up Alphabet for a discount. Like all the rest of the evidence I’ve presented, that doesn’t make a guarantee, but it sure looks like another chance to pick up the stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我在图表上注释了今年发生的大量销售实例，每一个实例都是以折扣价购买Alphabet的绝佳机会。就像我提出的所有其他证据一样，这并不能保证，但它看起来确实是另一个买入股票的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alphabet is still winning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet仍在获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> I laid out some of the fundamental cases in the linked article and nothing has changed on that front, so I won’t reiterate points I’ve already made. But let’s take a look at another piece of the puzzle that points to higher prices ahead, and that is with respect to margins.</p><p><blockquote>我在链接的文章中列出了一些基本案例，在这方面没有任何变化，所以我不会重申我已经提出的观点。但让我们来看看另一块表明未来价格上涨的难题，那就是利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet continues to see rising amounts of search and ad activity from both businesses and consumers as the world’s economy continues to heal from the pandemic. The company even continues to see gains from forex translation, although a recently strengthened US dollar may put a lid on that for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>随着世界经济继续从疫情中恢复，Alphabet企业和消费者的搜索和广告活动持续增加。该公司甚至继续从外汇换算中获得收益，尽管最近美元走强可能会暂时限制这一收益。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet continues to see rising ad spending, which is what you’d expect to see in a strengthening economy, and the only real risk to that would be another lockdown phase from the virus. I personally don’t think we’re in the position to need to lockdown again, given the world is infinitely better prepared for a COVID outbreak today than it was 18 months ago. Lockdown was the only option when the virus spread initially, but with vaccines nearly everywhere, masks, social distancing, etc., there simply isn’t a need for that any longer. That means the economic recovery should continue, all else equal, and that means ad spending should continue to be robust for Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的广告支出继续上升，这是你在经济走强中所期望看到的，而唯一真正的风险是病毒的另一个封锁阶段。我个人认为我们不需要再次封锁，因为今天世界对COVID爆发的准备比18个月前要好得多。当病毒最初传播时，封锁是唯一的选择，但疫苗几乎无处不在，口罩，社交距离等。，再也没有必要了。这意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，经济复苏应该会继续，这意味着Alphabet的广告支出应该会继续强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also doing things like using free cash flow to buy back stock, which is the sign of a maturing tech company. It also is a sign that the company’s profitability has reached such massive heights that the Board literally cannot find a use for it, and is therefore buying back its own stock. Other titans like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)are in a similar boat, and it’s a<i>very</i>nice boat to be in.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet也在做一些事情，比如利用自由现金流回购股票，这是一家成熟科技公司的标志。这也是一个迹象，表明该公司的盈利能力已经达到如此巨大的高度，以至于董事会实际上找不到它的用途，因此正在回购自己的股票。苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）等其他巨头也处于类似的境地，这是一个<i>非常</i>这是一艘不错的船。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company’s YouTube business continues to be a consistent winner, but to be honest, there are no segments within Alphabet that<i>aren’t</i>winners. Search is going to continue to be the elephant in the room for the years to come, but the fact that Alphabet can grow so consistently in so many ways is astounding, and why its share price keeps rising.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的YouTube业务仍然是持续的赢家，但说实话，Alphabet内部没有任何细分市场<i>不是</i>赢家。未来几年，搜索将继续成为房间里的大象，但Alphabet能够在许多方面如此持续增长的事实令人震惊，也是其股价持续上涨的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s take a look at margins given we’ve gotten a backdrop on why revenue is growing, and should continue to grow. Below, I’ve plotted trailing-twelve-months operating margins to get us going.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看利润率，因为我们已经了解了为什么收入在增长，并且应该继续增长。下面，我绘制了过去12个月的营业利润率，以帮助我们继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37002f4add35ef73fb8d1a36c7b661f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the growth in operating margins coming out of the pandemic has been<i>enormous</i>. Operating margins bottomed in the area of 20% of revenue, but have risen by nearly half in the quarters since. Keep in mind we’re looking at a four-quarter average above; the growth Alphabet is seeing in margins is absolutely outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到大流行后营业利润率的增长<i>巨大的</i>营业利润率在收入的20%左右触底，但此后几个季度增长了近一半。请记住，我们看到的是高于四分之三的平均值；Alphabet的利润率增长绝对出色。</blockquote></p><p> How is this happening? In short, it is happening with operating leverage. That is the impact of rising revenue, along with stagnant or declining expenses. In practice, it means that each incremental dollar of revenue means a higher amount of profit per dollar of revenue, which is what you see above because the incremental revenue carries with it lower relative expenses. If we look at the company’s gross margins and SG&A costs below, we can see this at work.</p><p><blockquote>这是怎么发生的？简而言之，这是通过运营杠杆发生的。这就是收入增长以及支出停滞或下降的影响。在实践中，这意味着每一美元收入的增量意味着每一美元收入的更高利润，这就是你在上面看到的，因为增量收入带来了更低的相对费用。如果我们看看下面公司的毛利率和SG&A成本，我们可以看到这在起作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235c19723a62ea20f74e0cb5d16f2f51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that while gross margins have rebounded some, the real growth has come from declining SG&A costs. Remember that it is the combination of these two factors that drives profitability, and right now, Alphabet has both going in the right direction. We don’t have to necessarily see massive growth in gross margins so long as revenue continues to rise, because SG&A costs should continue to decline. This means higher revenue begets higher profits in a virtuous cycle, which is exactly what Alphabet has been able to do.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，虽然毛利率有所反弹，但真正的增长来自于SG&A成本的下降。请记住，正是这两个因素的结合推动了盈利能力，而目前，Alphabet这两个因素都在朝着正确的方向发展。只要收入继续增长，我们就不一定会看到毛利率大幅增长，因为SG&A成本应该会继续下降。这意味着更高的收入会带来更高的利润，形成良性循环，这正是Alphabet能够做到的。</blockquote></p><p> If I’m right that ad spending will continue to grow due to a strengthening global economy, we should see more and more operating leverage for Alphabet as the quarters come and go. And the great news is that operating leverage for Alphabet has essentially limitless potential. It already has the infrastructure needed to grow, so incremental revenue carries with it little to no incremental cost. That’s the beauty of the business model, and why the stock continues to rise.</p><p><blockquote>如果我是对的，由于全球经济走强，广告支出将继续增长，那么随着季度的到来，我们应该会看到Alphabet的运营杠杆越来越大。好消息是，Alphabet的运营杠杆本质上具有无限的潜力。它已经拥有增长所需的基础设施，因此增量收入几乎不会带来增量成本。这就是商业模式的美妙之处，也是股票持续上涨的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s value Alphabet stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们评估Alphabet股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, before we get to the actual valuation, let’s take a look at EPS revisions, which are plotted below.</p><p><blockquote>现在，在我们了解实际估值之前，让我们来看看每股收益修正，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a67e6104c6d1ff35dba38d9c29f11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the overwhelming bullishness in these estimates, particularly in the past few months. Revisions have been coming in often and in big chunks higher, and for all years. What that means is that these gains are sustainable, not one-time boosts from the pandemic. In other words, Alphabet’s growth trajectory has been permanently improved, not temporarily. This is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see from a stock’s estimates because it supports higher valuations and higher share prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以在这些估计中看到压倒性的看涨，特别是在过去几个月。多年来，修订经常出现，而且幅度很大。这意味着这些收益是可持续的，而不是疫情的一次性推动。换句话说，Alphabet的增长轨迹得到了永久改善，而不是暂时改善。这正是我希望从股票的估计中看到的行为，因为它支持更高的估值和更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of the valuation, that’s where it gets juicy for Alphabet. Below, we have the price to forward earnings for the past five years for some historical context.</p><p><blockquote>说到估值，这就是Alphabet的优势所在。下面，我们根据一些历史背景对过去五年的收益进行了展望。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f1e36c6e62741bfe00fffac533d904\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares go today for 29X forward earnings, which is slightly above its historical average, but well below the peak set last year of 35X forward earnings. Keep in mind we’ve just seen that Alphabet’s profit margins are much better than they were a year ago – and continue to rise – while revenue is soaring. In other words, I think it’s pretty easy to make the argument that Alphabet is a much better company for investors today than it was when it was priced at 35X forward earnings, but goes for 29X. That makes the stock pretty cheap in my mind and just fuels the bullish argument for yet more highs.</p><p><blockquote>今天该股的预期市盈率为29倍，略高于历史平均水平，但远低于去年创下的35倍预期市盈率的峰值。请记住，我们刚刚看到Alphabet的利润率比一年前好得多，并且还在继续上升，而收入却在飙升。换句话说，我认为很容易证明，对于今天的投资者来说，Alphabet是一家比它的预期市盈率为35倍时好得多的公司，但现在的市盈率为29倍。这使得该股在我看来相当便宜，并且只会助长看涨更多高点的论点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that this is one of the best companies in the world and will almost certainly remain that way for the foreseeable future. The chart looks like it is going higher, and the fundamental situation continues to improve as well. I don’t see anything that’s not to like here, and for that reason, you have to consider owning Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，这是世界上最好的公司之一，而且在可预见的未来几乎肯定会保持这种状态。图表看起来正在走高，基本面也在继续改善。我看不出这里有什么不喜欢的，因此，你必须考虑拥有Alphabet。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time<blockquote>Alphabet股票：这次不要错过</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet Stock: Don't Miss Out This Time<blockquote>Alphabet股票：这次不要错过</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 09:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>GOOG is pulling back.</li> <li>I see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.</li> <li>The fundamental picture continues to improve and all signs point to more highs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d4441cfb915dc5aa9a0e9e8ce1f215\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>谷歌正在撤退。</li><li>我认为这是一个刷新的暂停，而不是上升趋势的结束。</li><li>基本面继续改善，所有迹象都指向更多高点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in June, I said search legend <b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) was a buy before it broke out to new highs. At the time, the stock was trading for $2,451, and it has since risen about 15% to new highs. I take credit for my bad calls and losses, so permit me to spike the ball in the endzone here for a good one.</p><p><blockquote>早在6月份，我就说搜索传奇<b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)（纳斯达克：GOOGL）在突破新高之前值得买入。当时，该股交易价格为2451美元，此后已上涨约15%至新高。我认为我糟糕的评级和损失是我的功劳，所以请允许我在端区扣球，这是一个好的。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks that have soared like Alphabet tend to take breathers from time to time, and right now, I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Selling was rampant across the whole market last week, but it appears to me Alphabet is setting up for another pause that refreshes before continuing its run higher.</p><p><blockquote>像Alphabet这样飙升的股票往往会时不时地喘口气，现在，我认为这正是我们所看到的。上周整个市场抛售猖獗，但在我看来，Alphabet正在准备再次暂停，然后再继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eebf692d507eedac08fd13298641399\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, the price chart looks like it is almost made up; that’s how excellent Alphabet has been at moving from lower-left to upper-right. Any chart that looks like this has to catch your attention, and it has certainly caught mine.</p><p><blockquote>首先，价格图表看起来几乎是编造的；这就是Alphabet从左下到右上的出色表现。任何看起来像这样的图表都必须引起你的注意，当然也引起了我的注意。</blockquote></p><p> We can see the moving averages have been moving higher, completely uninterrupted by whatever the news of the day has been over the past year, and simply chugging ever higher. The current move down, while small, represents what I think is another chance to pick up Alphabet at a small discount before it makes yet more highs, which I am quite sure it will.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到移动平均线一直在走高，完全不受过去一年当天新闻的干扰，只是越来越高。目前的下跌虽然幅度很小，但我认为这是在Alphabet创下更多高点之前以小幅折扣买入的另一个机会，我很确定它会的。</blockquote></p><p> I said back in June that any test of the 50-day moving average would be a massive buying chance, and I still wholeheartedly believe that. We haven’t seen one since May, but it looks like we may get one this week with the stock having sliced through its 20-day exponential moving average. I’ll repeat what I said three months ago: if we get a test of the 50-day moving average, back up the truck.</p><p><blockquote>我早在6月份就说过，对50日移动平均线的任何测试都将是一个巨大的买入机会，我仍然全心全意地相信这一点。自5月份以来，我们还没有看到过这样的情况，但随着该股突破20日指数移动平均线，本周我们可能会看到这样的情况。我将重复我三个月前说过的话：如果我们测试了50天移动平均线，请备份卡车。</blockquote></p><p> The accumulation/distribution line remains bullish, but the high volume selling we saw last week has caused it to decline a bit. I’m not bothered with that because the trend is still higher, but it is something to watch.</p><p><blockquote>累积/分配线仍然看涨，但我们上周看到的大量抛售导致其略有下降。我对此并不感到困扰，因为趋势仍然更高，但这是值得关注的。</blockquote></p><p> Momentum is telling a similar story where we’ve seen a pullback with the share price, but the PPO is still well into positive territory and the 14-day RSI remains at the centerline. Unless something drastically changes, I see Alphabet’s selling as a pause that refreshes, and not the end of the uptrend.</p><p><blockquote>Momentum讲述了一个类似的故事，我们看到股价回落，但PPO仍处于正值区域，14天RSI仍处于中心线。除非发生巨大变化，否则我认为Alphabet的抛售是一种刷新的暂停，而不是上升趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, I’ve annotated instances of high volume selling that have occurred this year on the chart, and each one of them has been a great chance to pick up Alphabet for a discount. Like all the rest of the evidence I’ve presented, that doesn’t make a guarantee, but it sure looks like another chance to pick up the stock.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我在图表上注释了今年发生的大量销售实例，每一个实例都是以折扣价购买Alphabet的绝佳机会。就像我提出的所有其他证据一样，这并不能保证，但它看起来确实是另一个买入股票的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Alphabet is still winning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet仍在获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> I laid out some of the fundamental cases in the linked article and nothing has changed on that front, so I won’t reiterate points I’ve already made. But let’s take a look at another piece of the puzzle that points to higher prices ahead, and that is with respect to margins.</p><p><blockquote>我在链接的文章中列出了一些基本案例，在这方面没有任何变化，所以我不会重申我已经提出的观点。但让我们来看看另一块表明未来价格上涨的难题，那就是利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet continues to see rising amounts of search and ad activity from both businesses and consumers as the world’s economy continues to heal from the pandemic. The company even continues to see gains from forex translation, although a recently strengthened US dollar may put a lid on that for the time being.</p><p><blockquote>随着世界经济继续从疫情中恢复，Alphabet企业和消费者的搜索和广告活动持续增加。该公司甚至继续从外汇换算中获得收益，尽管最近美元走强可能会暂时限制这一收益。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet continues to see rising ad spending, which is what you’d expect to see in a strengthening economy, and the only real risk to that would be another lockdown phase from the virus. I personally don’t think we’re in the position to need to lockdown again, given the world is infinitely better prepared for a COVID outbreak today than it was 18 months ago. Lockdown was the only option when the virus spread initially, but with vaccines nearly everywhere, masks, social distancing, etc., there simply isn’t a need for that any longer. That means the economic recovery should continue, all else equal, and that means ad spending should continue to be robust for Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的广告支出继续上升，这是你在经济走强中所期望看到的，而唯一真正的风险是病毒的另一个封锁阶段。我个人认为我们不需要再次封锁，因为今天世界对COVID爆发的准备比18个月前要好得多。当病毒最初传播时，封锁是唯一的选择，但疫苗几乎无处不在，口罩，社交距离等。，再也没有必要了。这意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，经济复苏应该会继续，这意味着Alphabet的广告支出应该会继续强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Alphabet is also doing things like using free cash flow to buy back stock, which is the sign of a maturing tech company. It also is a sign that the company’s profitability has reached such massive heights that the Board literally cannot find a use for it, and is therefore buying back its own stock. Other titans like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)are in a similar boat, and it’s a<i>very</i>nice boat to be in.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet也在做一些事情，比如利用自由现金流回购股票，这是一家成熟科技公司的标志。这也是一个迹象，表明该公司的盈利能力已经达到如此巨大的高度，以至于董事会实际上找不到它的用途，因此正在回购自己的股票。苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）等其他巨头也处于类似的境地，这是一个<i>非常</i>这是一艘不错的船。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company’s YouTube business continues to be a consistent winner, but to be honest, there are no segments within Alphabet that<i>aren’t</i>winners. Search is going to continue to be the elephant in the room for the years to come, but the fact that Alphabet can grow so consistently in so many ways is astounding, and why its share price keeps rising.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的YouTube业务仍然是持续的赢家，但说实话，Alphabet内部没有任何细分市场<i>不是</i>赢家。未来几年，搜索将继续成为房间里的大象，但Alphabet能够在许多方面如此持续增长的事实令人震惊，也是其股价持续上涨的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s take a look at margins given we’ve gotten a backdrop on why revenue is growing, and should continue to grow. Below, I’ve plotted trailing-twelve-months operating margins to get us going.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看利润率，因为我们已经了解了为什么收入在增长，并且应该继续增长。下面，我绘制了过去12个月的营业利润率，以帮助我们继续前进。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37002f4add35ef73fb8d1a36c7b661f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"165\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the growth in operating margins coming out of the pandemic has been<i>enormous</i>. Operating margins bottomed in the area of 20% of revenue, but have risen by nearly half in the quarters since. Keep in mind we’re looking at a four-quarter average above; the growth Alphabet is seeing in margins is absolutely outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到大流行后营业利润率的增长<i>巨大的</i>营业利润率在收入的20%左右触底，但此后几个季度增长了近一半。请记住，我们看到的是高于四分之三的平均值；Alphabet的利润率增长绝对出色。</blockquote></p><p> How is this happening? In short, it is happening with operating leverage. That is the impact of rising revenue, along with stagnant or declining expenses. In practice, it means that each incremental dollar of revenue means a higher amount of profit per dollar of revenue, which is what you see above because the incremental revenue carries with it lower relative expenses. If we look at the company’s gross margins and SG&A costs below, we can see this at work.</p><p><blockquote>这是怎么发生的？简而言之，这是通过运营杠杆发生的。这就是收入增长以及支出停滞或下降的影响。在实践中，这意味着每一美元收入的增量意味着每一美元收入的更高利润，这就是你在上面看到的，因为增量收入带来了更低的相对费用。如果我们看看下面公司的毛利率和SG&A成本，我们可以看到这在起作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235c19723a62ea20f74e0cb5d16f2f51\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that while gross margins have rebounded some, the real growth has come from declining SG&A costs. Remember that it is the combination of these two factors that drives profitability, and right now, Alphabet has both going in the right direction. We don’t have to necessarily see massive growth in gross margins so long as revenue continues to rise, because SG&A costs should continue to decline. This means higher revenue begets higher profits in a virtuous cycle, which is exactly what Alphabet has been able to do.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，虽然毛利率有所反弹，但真正的增长来自于SG&A成本的下降。请记住，正是这两个因素的结合推动了盈利能力，而目前，Alphabet这两个因素都在朝着正确的方向发展。只要收入继续增长，我们就不一定会看到毛利率大幅增长，因为SG&A成本应该会继续下降。这意味着更高的收入会带来更高的利润，形成良性循环，这正是Alphabet能够做到的。</blockquote></p><p> If I’m right that ad spending will continue to grow due to a strengthening global economy, we should see more and more operating leverage for Alphabet as the quarters come and go. And the great news is that operating leverage for Alphabet has essentially limitless potential. It already has the infrastructure needed to grow, so incremental revenue carries with it little to no incremental cost. That’s the beauty of the business model, and why the stock continues to rise.</p><p><blockquote>如果我是对的，由于全球经济走强，广告支出将继续增长，那么随着季度的到来，我们应该会看到Alphabet的运营杠杆越来越大。好消息是，Alphabet的运营杠杆本质上具有无限的潜力。它已经拥有增长所需的基础设施，因此增量收入几乎不会带来增量成本。这就是商业模式的美妙之处，也是股票持续上涨的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s value Alphabet stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们评估Alphabet股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, before we get to the actual valuation, let’s take a look at EPS revisions, which are plotted below.</p><p><blockquote>现在，在我们了解实际估值之前，让我们来看看每股收益修正，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06a67e6104c6d1ff35dba38d9c29f11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the overwhelming bullishness in these estimates, particularly in the past few months. Revisions have been coming in often and in big chunks higher, and for all years. What that means is that these gains are sustainable, not one-time boosts from the pandemic. In other words, Alphabet’s growth trajectory has been permanently improved, not temporarily. This is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see from a stock’s estimates because it supports higher valuations and higher share prices.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以在这些估计中看到压倒性的看涨，特别是在过去几个月。多年来，修订经常出现，而且幅度很大。这意味着这些收益是可持续的，而不是疫情的一次性推动。换句话说，Alphabet的增长轨迹得到了永久改善，而不是暂时改善。这正是我希望从股票的估计中看到的行为，因为它支持更高的估值和更高的股价。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of the valuation, that’s where it gets juicy for Alphabet. Below, we have the price to forward earnings for the past five years for some historical context.</p><p><blockquote>说到估值，这就是Alphabet的优势所在。下面，我们根据一些历史背景对过去五年的收益进行了展望。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f1e36c6e62741bfe00fffac533d904\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares go today for 29X forward earnings, which is slightly above its historical average, but well below the peak set last year of 35X forward earnings. Keep in mind we’ve just seen that Alphabet’s profit margins are much better than they were a year ago – and continue to rise – while revenue is soaring. In other words, I think it’s pretty easy to make the argument that Alphabet is a much better company for investors today than it was when it was priced at 35X forward earnings, but goes for 29X. That makes the stock pretty cheap in my mind and just fuels the bullish argument for yet more highs.</p><p><blockquote>今天该股的预期市盈率为29倍，略高于历史平均水平，但远低于去年创下的35倍预期市盈率的峰值。请记住，我们刚刚看到Alphabet的利润率比一年前好得多，并且还在继续上升，而收入却在飙升。换句话说，我认为很容易证明，对于今天的投资者来说，Alphabet是一家比它的预期市盈率为35倍时好得多的公司，但现在的市盈率为29倍。这使得该股在我看来相当便宜，并且只会助长看涨更多高点的论点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that this is one of the best companies in the world and will almost certainly remain that way for the foreseeable future. The chart looks like it is going higher, and the fundamental situation continues to improve as well. I don’t see anything that’s not to like here, and for that reason, you have to consider owning Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，这是世界上最好的公司之一，而且在可预见的未来几乎肯定会保持这种状态。图表看起来正在走高，基本面也在继续改善。我看不出这里有什么不喜欢的，因此，你必须考虑拥有Alphabet。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456044-alphabet-dont-miss-out-this-time\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4456044-alphabet-dont-miss-out-this-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109134681","content_text":"Summary\n\nGOOG is pulling back.\nI see this as a pause that refreshes, not the end of the uptrend.\nThe fundamental picture continues to improve and all signs point to more highs.\n\nSpencer Platt/Getty Images News\nBack in June, I said search legend Alphabet(GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) was a buy before it broke out to new highs. At the time, the stock was trading for $2,451, and it has since risen about 15% to new highs. I take credit for my bad calls and losses, so permit me to spike the ball in the endzone here for a good one.\nStocks that have soared like Alphabet tend to take breathers from time to time, and right now, I think that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Selling was rampant across the whole market last week, but it appears to me Alphabet is setting up for another pause that refreshes before continuing its run higher.\nSource: StockCharts\nFirst, the price chart looks like it is almost made up; that’s how excellent Alphabet has been at moving from lower-left to upper-right. Any chart that looks like this has to catch your attention, and it has certainly caught mine.\nWe can see the moving averages have been moving higher, completely uninterrupted by whatever the news of the day has been over the past year, and simply chugging ever higher. The current move down, while small, represents what I think is another chance to pick up Alphabet at a small discount before it makes yet more highs, which I am quite sure it will.\nI said back in June that any test of the 50-day moving average would be a massive buying chance, and I still wholeheartedly believe that. We haven’t seen one since May, but it looks like we may get one this week with the stock having sliced through its 20-day exponential moving average. I’ll repeat what I said three months ago: if we get a test of the 50-day moving average, back up the truck.\nThe accumulation/distribution line remains bullish, but the high volume selling we saw last week has caused it to decline a bit. I’m not bothered with that because the trend is still higher, but it is something to watch.\nMomentum is telling a similar story where we’ve seen a pullback with the share price, but the PPO is still well into positive territory and the 14-day RSI remains at the centerline. Unless something drastically changes, I see Alphabet’s selling as a pause that refreshes, and not the end of the uptrend.\nFinally, I’ve annotated instances of high volume selling that have occurred this year on the chart, and each one of them has been a great chance to pick up Alphabet for a discount. Like all the rest of the evidence I’ve presented, that doesn’t make a guarantee, but it sure looks like another chance to pick up the stock.\nAlphabet is still winning\nI laid out some of the fundamental cases in the linked article and nothing has changed on that front, so I won’t reiterate points I’ve already made. But let’s take a look at another piece of the puzzle that points to higher prices ahead, and that is with respect to margins.\nAlphabet continues to see rising amounts of search and ad activity from both businesses and consumers as the world’s economy continues to heal from the pandemic. The company even continues to see gains from forex translation, although a recently strengthened US dollar may put a lid on that for the time being.\nAlphabet continues to see rising ad spending, which is what you’d expect to see in a strengthening economy, and the only real risk to that would be another lockdown phase from the virus. I personally don’t think we’re in the position to need to lockdown again, given the world is infinitely better prepared for a COVID outbreak today than it was 18 months ago. Lockdown was the only option when the virus spread initially, but with vaccines nearly everywhere, masks, social distancing, etc., there simply isn’t a need for that any longer. That means the economic recovery should continue, all else equal, and that means ad spending should continue to be robust for Alphabet.\nAlphabet is also doing things like using free cash flow to buy back stock, which is the sign of a maturing tech company. It also is a sign that the company’s profitability has reached such massive heights that the Board literally cannot find a use for it, and is therefore buying back its own stock. Other titans like Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)are in a similar boat, and it’s averynice boat to be in.\nThe company’s YouTube business continues to be a consistent winner, but to be honest, there are no segments within Alphabet thataren’twinners. Search is going to continue to be the elephant in the room for the years to come, but the fact that Alphabet can grow so consistently in so many ways is astounding, and why its share price keeps rising.\nNow, let’s take a look at margins given we’ve gotten a backdrop on why revenue is growing, and should continue to grow. Below, I’ve plotted trailing-twelve-months operating margins to get us going.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the growth in operating margins coming out of the pandemic has beenenormous. Operating margins bottomed in the area of 20% of revenue, but have risen by nearly half in the quarters since. Keep in mind we’re looking at a four-quarter average above; the growth Alphabet is seeing in margins is absolutely outstanding.\nHow is this happening? In short, it is happening with operating leverage. That is the impact of rising revenue, along with stagnant or declining expenses. In practice, it means that each incremental dollar of revenue means a higher amount of profit per dollar of revenue, which is what you see above because the incremental revenue carries with it lower relative expenses. If we look at the company’s gross margins and SG&A costs below, we can see this at work.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see that while gross margins have rebounded some, the real growth has come from declining SG&A costs. Remember that it is the combination of these two factors that drives profitability, and right now, Alphabet has both going in the right direction. We don’t have to necessarily see massive growth in gross margins so long as revenue continues to rise, because SG&A costs should continue to decline. This means higher revenue begets higher profits in a virtuous cycle, which is exactly what Alphabet has been able to do.\nIf I’m right that ad spending will continue to grow due to a strengthening global economy, we should see more and more operating leverage for Alphabet as the quarters come and go. And the great news is that operating leverage for Alphabet has essentially limitless potential. It already has the infrastructure needed to grow, so incremental revenue carries with it little to no incremental cost. That’s the beauty of the business model, and why the stock continues to rise.\nLet’s value Alphabet stock\nNow, before we get to the actual valuation, let’s take a look at EPS revisions, which are plotted below.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the overwhelming bullishness in these estimates, particularly in the past few months. Revisions have been coming in often and in big chunks higher, and for all years. What that means is that these gains are sustainable, not one-time boosts from the pandemic. In other words, Alphabet’s growth trajectory has been permanently improved, not temporarily. This is exactly the kind of behavior I want to see from a stock’s estimates because it supports higher valuations and higher share prices.\nSpeaking of the valuation, that’s where it gets juicy for Alphabet. Below, we have the price to forward earnings for the past five years for some historical context.\nSource: TIKR.com\nShares go today for 29X forward earnings, which is slightly above its historical average, but well below the peak set last year of 35X forward earnings. Keep in mind we’ve just seen that Alphabet’s profit margins are much better than they were a year ago – and continue to rise – while revenue is soaring. In other words, I think it’s pretty easy to make the argument that Alphabet is a much better company for investors today than it was when it was priced at 35X forward earnings, but goes for 29X. That makes the stock pretty cheap in my mind and just fuels the bullish argument for yet more highs.\nThe bottom line is that this is one of the best companies in the world and will almost certainly remain that way for the foreseeable future. The chart looks like it is going higher, and the fundamental situation continues to improve as well. I don’t see anything that’s not to like here, and for that reason, you have to consider owning Alphabet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/887757071"}
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