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2021-09-14

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Apple, Google Could Still Win From App Store Loss<blockquote>苹果、谷歌仍可能从App Store的损失中获胜</blockquote>

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AppleInc.AAPL0.39%and Google have ways to mitigate last week’s damaging legal ruling regarding their app store businesses. Ironically, their ability to do so could also prove their critics’ point.<blockquote>用户摩擦、开发者营销需求可能会抵消支付排他性的损失。苹果公司(AppleInc.AAPL)和谷歌有办法减轻上周有关其应用商店业务的破坏性法律裁决。具有讽刺意味的是，他们这样做的能力也可能证明他们的批评者的观点。</blockquote> Last week’s ruling, in a federal case brought by Epic Games, found that Apple’s policy of preventing alternative payment systems within apps on its devices qualified as “anticompetitive conduct” under California law. Thepresiding judge orderedApple to halt the practice, which could in theoryeat significantly into the revenuegenerated by its App Store from the commissions paid on in-app purchases. Google wasn’t involved in the lawsuit, but investors figured the same fate would eventually befall the company’s Google Play store. Apple shares slid 3% while Google-parentAlphabetInc.fell nearly 2% on Friday following the ruling.<blockquote>上周Epic Games提起的联邦案件中的裁决发现，根据加州法律，苹果阻止其设备上的应用程序中使用替代支付系统的政策符合“反竞争行为”。主审法官命令苹果停止这种做法，理论上这可能会严重影响其应用商店从应用内购买支付的佣金中产生的收入。谷歌没有卷入这起诉讼，但投资者认为同样的命运最终会降临到该公司的谷歌Play商店身上。裁决公布后，苹果股价下跌3%，而谷歌母公司AlphabetInc.周五下跌近2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e6653bb213d502972b519902b2c7f39\" tg-width=\"330\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Now Wall Street isn’t so sure. Both stocks regained some ground Monday after several analysts noted both thelikely length of timefor the ruling to take effect and the ways the two tech titans could offset at least some of the presumed loss. The upshot is that few observers see much near-term risk for the two mobile app stores expected to generate a combined $34.7 billion in revenue this calendar year, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.<blockquote>现在华尔街不太确定了。在几位分析师指出裁决生效的可能时间以及两家科技巨头至少可以抵消部分假定损失的方式后，这两只股票周一都收复了一些失地。结果是，根据Visible Alpha的一致估计，很少有观察家认为这两家移动应用商店预计今年将产生347亿美元的总收入，近期会有太大风险。</blockquote> Apple has 90 days to implement changes before the ruling takes effect. The company could choose to appeal the decision and seek a stay of the ruling while the matter works through the courts. Apple hasn’t said it would do so: It has focused its public comments so far on the parts of the case where it prevailed, such as the judge’s determination that Apple doesn’t qualify as a legal monopoly. Paul Gallant of Cowen thinks Apple has a strong case for appeal given the trial judge’s “nationwide application of a California state law.”<blockquote>在裁决生效之前，苹果有90天的时间实施变更。该公司可以选择对该决定提出上诉，并在此事通过法院审理期间寻求暂缓裁决。苹果尚未表示会这样做：迄今为止，它的公开评论主要集中在该案中获胜的部分，例如法官认定苹果不符合合法垄断资格。考恩的保罗·加兰特认为，鉴于初审法官“在全国范围内适用加州法律”，苹果有充分的上诉理由。</blockquote> And if the ruling stands, several analysts expressed doubt that every Apple device user would switch to using different payment methods. Kyle McNealy of Jefferies cited “consumer aversion to entering payment details for a high volume of apps separately,” while Katy Huberty ofMorgan Stanleysaid changes from the ruling “would require consumers to manage disparate accounts across many developers, creating more friction than the current App Store model.” Ms. Huberty estimates that, if Apple were to lose all revenue from the 20 largest app developers globally, the loss would equate to about 2% of revenue and 5% of EPS in Apple’s 2022 fiscal year “in a worst-case scenario.”<blockquote>如果裁决成立，几位分析师对每个苹果设备用户是否会改用不同的支付方式表示怀疑。杰富瑞(Jefferies)的凯尔·麦克尼利(Kyle McNealy)表示，“消费者不愿意单独输入大量应用程序的支付详细信息”，而摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的凯蒂·休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)表示，该裁决的变化“将要求消费者管理许多开发商的不同账户，从而比当前的应用程序商店模式造成更多摩擦。”Huberty女士估计，如果苹果失去全球20家最大应用开发商的所有收入，“在最坏的情况下”，损失将相当于苹果2022财年收入的2%左右和每股收益的5%。</blockquote> And even if developers secure some savings on the commissions that they have to pay on in-app sales, at least some of that would likely be plowed back into user acquisition. That would likely mean a jump in advertising revenue for Apple, and especially Google, which dominates the online advertising market. Stephen Ju ofCredit Suisseleft his estimates for Google unchanged, writing that increased marketing spending by developers “will likely see Google recapture some lost fees as search/app install revenue.”<blockquote>即使开发者节省了一些应用内销售佣金，至少其中一部分可能会重新投入到用户获取中。这可能意味着苹果广告收入的大幅增长，尤其是在在线广告市场占据主导地位的谷歌。瑞士信贷的Stephen Ju维持对谷歌的预期不变，他写道，开发者增加营销支出“可能会让谷歌夺回一些损失的费用，作为搜索/应用安装收入。”</blockquote> The rub is that such resilience on the part of two companies valued at a combined $4.4 trillion could further fuel the drive by lawmakers to take big tech down a few pegs. Apple and Google own the two operating systems that power nearly every smartphone on earth, but the mobile app stores for both are small relative to their core businesses at roughly 5% of annual revenues. The two might want to consider if every dollar is worth fighting for.<blockquote>问题在于，两家总价值4.4万亿美元的公司的这种弹性可能会进一步推动立法者降低大型科技公司的一些挂钩。苹果和谷歌拥有两种操作系统，几乎为地球上的每一部智能手机提供支持，但两者的移动应用商店相对于其核心业务来说都很小，约占年收入的5%。两人可能要考虑是否每一块钱都值得为之奋斗。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple, Google Could Still Win From App Store Loss<blockquote>苹果、谷歌仍可能从App Store的损失中获胜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple, Google Could Still Win From App Store Loss<blockquote>苹果、谷歌仍可能从App Store的损失中获胜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Wall Street Journal2021-09-14 19:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n User friction, developer marketing needs could offset loss of payment exclusivity. AppleInc.AAPL0.39%and Google have ways to mitigate last week’s damaging legal ruling regarding their app store businesses. Ironically, their ability to do so could also prove their critics’ point.<blockquote>用户摩擦、开发者营销需求可能会抵消支付排他性的损失。苹果公司(AppleInc.AAPL)和谷歌有办法减轻上周有关其应用商店业务的破坏性法律裁决。具有讽刺意味的是，他们这样做的能力也可能证明他们的批评者的观点。</blockquote> Last week’s ruling, in a federal case brought by Epic Games, found that Apple’s policy of preventing alternative payment systems within apps on its devices qualified as “anticompetitive conduct” under California law. Thepresiding judge orderedApple to halt the practice, which could in theoryeat significantly into the revenuegenerated by its App Store from the commissions paid on in-app purchases. Google wasn’t involved in the lawsuit, but investors figured the same fate would eventually befall the company’s Google Play store. Apple shares slid 3% while Google-parentAlphabetInc.fell nearly 2% on Friday following the ruling.<blockquote>上周Epic Games提起的联邦案件中的裁决发现，根据加州法律，苹果阻止其设备上的应用程序中使用替代支付系统的政策符合“反竞争行为”。主审法官命令苹果停止这种做法，理论上这可能会严重影响其应用商店从应用内购买支付的佣金中产生的收入。谷歌没有卷入这起诉讼，但投资者认为同样的命运最终会降临到该公司的谷歌Play商店身上。裁决公布后，苹果股价下跌3%，而谷歌母公司AlphabetInc.周五下跌近2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e6653bb213d502972b519902b2c7f39\" tg-width=\"330\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Now Wall Street isn’t so sure. Both stocks regained some ground Monday after several analysts noted both thelikely length of timefor the ruling to take effect and the ways the two tech titans could offset at least some of the presumed loss. The upshot is that few observers see much near-term risk for the two mobile app stores expected to generate a combined $34.7 billion in revenue this calendar year, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.<blockquote>现在华尔街不太确定了。在几位分析师指出裁决生效的可能时间以及两家科技巨头至少可以抵消部分假定损失的方式后，这两只股票周一都收复了一些失地。结果是，根据Visible Alpha的一致估计，很少有观察家认为这两家移动应用商店预计今年将产生347亿美元的总收入，近期会有太大风险。</blockquote> Apple has 90 days to implement changes before the ruling takes effect. The company could choose to appeal the decision and seek a stay of the ruling while the matter works through the courts. Apple hasn’t said it would do so: It has focused its public comments so far on the parts of the case where it prevailed, such as the judge’s determination that Apple doesn’t qualify as a legal monopoly. Paul Gallant of Cowen thinks Apple has a strong case for appeal given the trial judge’s “nationwide application of a California state law.”<blockquote>在裁决生效之前，苹果有90天的时间实施变更。该公司可以选择对该决定提出上诉，并在此事通过法院审理期间寻求暂缓裁决。苹果尚未表示会这样做：迄今为止，它的公开评论主要集中在该案中获胜的部分，例如法官认定苹果不符合合法垄断资格。考恩的保罗·加兰特认为，鉴于初审法官“在全国范围内适用加州法律”，苹果有充分的上诉理由。</blockquote> And if the ruling stands, several analysts expressed doubt that every Apple device user would switch to using different payment methods. Kyle McNealy of Jefferies cited “consumer aversion to entering payment details for a high volume of apps separately,” while Katy Huberty ofMorgan Stanleysaid changes from the ruling “would require consumers to manage disparate accounts across many developers, creating more friction than the current App Store model.” Ms. Huberty estimates that, if Apple were to lose all revenue from the 20 largest app developers globally, the loss would equate to about 2% of revenue and 5% of EPS in Apple’s 2022 fiscal year “in a worst-case scenario.”<blockquote>如果裁决成立，几位分析师对每个苹果设备用户是否会改用不同的支付方式表示怀疑。杰富瑞(Jefferies)的凯尔·麦克尼利(Kyle McNealy)表示，“消费者不愿意单独输入大量应用程序的支付详细信息”，而摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的凯蒂·休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)表示，该裁决的变化“将要求消费者管理许多开发商的不同账户，从而比当前的应用程序商店模式造成更多摩擦。”Huberty女士估计，如果苹果失去全球20家最大应用开发商的所有收入，“在最坏的情况下”，损失将相当于苹果2022财年收入的2%左右和每股收益的5%。</blockquote> And even if developers secure some savings on the commissions that they have to pay on in-app sales, at least some of that would likely be plowed back into user acquisition. That would likely mean a jump in advertising revenue for Apple, and especially Google, which dominates the online advertising market. Stephen Ju ofCredit Suisseleft his estimates for Google unchanged, writing that increased marketing spending by developers “will likely see Google recapture some lost fees as search/app install revenue.”<blockquote>即使开发者节省了一些应用内销售佣金，至少其中一部分可能会重新投入到用户获取中。这可能意味着苹果广告收入的大幅增长，尤其是在在线广告市场占据主导地位的谷歌。瑞士信贷的Stephen Ju维持对谷歌的预期不变，他写道，开发者增加营销支出“可能会让谷歌夺回一些损失的费用，作为搜索/应用安装收入。”</blockquote> The rub is that such resilience on the part of two companies valued at a combined $4.4 trillion could further fuel the drive by lawmakers to take big tech down a few pegs. Apple and Google own the two operating systems that power nearly every smartphone on earth, but the mobile app stores for both are small relative to their core businesses at roughly 5% of annual revenues. The two might want to consider if every dollar is worth fighting for.<blockquote>问题在于，两家总价值4.4万亿美元的公司的这种弹性可能会进一步推动立法者降低大型科技公司的一些挂钩。苹果和谷歌拥有两种操作系统，几乎为地球上的每一部智能手机提供支持，但两者的移动应用商店相对于其核心业务来说都很小，约占年收入的5%。两人可能要考虑是否每一块钱都值得为之奋斗。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-google-could-still-win-from-app-store-loss-11631617201?mod=rss_markets_main\">The Wall Street Journal</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-google-could-still-win-from-app-store-loss-11631617201?mod=rss_markets_main","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166249737","content_text":"User friction, developer marketing needs could offset loss of payment exclusivity.\n\nAppleInc.AAPL0.39%and Google have ways to mitigate last week’s damaging legal ruling regarding their app store businesses. Ironically, their ability to do so could also prove their critics’ point.\nLast week’s ruling, in a federal case brought by Epic Games, found that Apple’s policy of preventing alternative payment systems within apps on its devices qualified as “anticompetitive conduct” under California law. Thepresiding judge orderedApple to halt the practice, which could in theoryeat significantly into the revenuegenerated by its App Store from the commissions paid on in-app purchases. Google wasn’t involved in the lawsuit, but investors figured the same fate would eventually befall the company’s Google Play store. Apple shares slid 3% while Google-parentAlphabetInc.fell nearly 2% on Friday following the ruling.\nNow Wall Street isn’t so sure. Both stocks regained some ground Monday after several analysts noted both thelikely length of timefor the ruling to take effect and the ways the two tech titans could offset at least some of the presumed loss. The upshot is that few observers see much near-term risk for the two mobile app stores expected to generate a combined $34.7 billion in revenue this calendar year, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.\nApple has 90 days to implement changes before the ruling takes effect. The company could choose to appeal the decision and seek a stay of the ruling while the matter works through the courts. Apple hasn’t said it would do so: It has focused its public comments so far on the parts of the case where it prevailed, such as the judge’s determination that Apple doesn’t qualify as a legal monopoly. Paul Gallant of Cowen thinks Apple has a strong case for appeal given the trial judge’s “nationwide application of a California state law.”\nAnd if the ruling stands, several analysts expressed doubt that every Apple device user would switch to using different payment methods. Kyle McNealy of Jefferies cited “consumer aversion to entering payment details for a high volume of apps separately,” while Katy Huberty ofMorgan Stanleysaid changes from the ruling “would require consumers to manage disparate accounts across many developers, creating more friction than the current App Store model.” Ms. Huberty estimates that, if Apple were to lose all revenue from the 20 largest app developers globally, the loss would equate to about 2% of revenue and 5% of EPS in Apple’s 2022 fiscal year “in a worst-case scenario.”\nAnd even if developers secure some savings on the commissions that they have to pay on in-app sales, at least some of that would likely be plowed back into user acquisition. That would likely mean a jump in advertising revenue for Apple, and especially Google, which dominates the online advertising market. Stephen Ju ofCredit Suisseleft his estimates for Google unchanged, writing that increased marketing spending by developers “will likely see Google recapture some lost fees as search/app install revenue.”\nThe rub is that such resilience on the part of two companies valued at a combined $4.4 trillion could further fuel the drive by lawmakers to take big tech down a few pegs. Apple and Google own the two operating systems that power nearly every smartphone on earth, but the mobile app stores for both are small relative to their core businesses at roughly 5% of annual revenues. 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