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2021-09-14
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Apple, Google Could Still Win From App Store Loss<blockquote>苹果和谷歌仍有可能从 App Store 的损失中受益</blockquote>
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Ironically, their ability to do so could also prove their critics’ point.</p><p><blockquote><b>用户摩擦、开发商营销需求可以抵消支付排他性的损失。</b>AppleInc.AAPL0.39% 和谷歌有办法减轻上周有关其应用商店业务的破坏性法律裁决。具有讽刺意味的是，他们这样做的能力也可以证明批评者的观点。</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s ruling, in a federal case brought by Epic Games, found that Apple’s policy of preventing alternative payment systems within apps on its devices qualified as “anticompetitive conduct” under California law. Thepresiding judge orderedApple to halt the practice, which could in theoryeat significantly into the revenuegenerated by its App Store from the commissions paid on in-app purchases. Google wasn’t involved in the lawsuit, but investors figured the same fate would eventually befall the company’s Google Play store. Apple shares slid 3% while Google-parentAlphabetInc.fell nearly 2% on Friday following the ruling.</p><p><blockquote>上周，Epic Games 提起的一起联邦案件的裁决认定，根据加州法律，苹果阻止其设备应用程序中使用替代支付系统的政策属于 “反竞争行为”。主审法官命令苹果公司停止这种做法，理论上，这种做法可能会大幅影响其应用商店从应用内购买支付的佣金中产生的收入。谷歌没有卷入诉讼，但投资者认为，同样的命运最终也会降临到该公司的谷歌 Play 商店身上。裁决后，苹果股价周五下跌 3%，而谷歌母公司 PhabetInc. 股价周五下跌近 2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e6653bb213d502972b519902b2c7f39\" tg-width=\"330\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Now Wall Street isn’t so sure. Both stocks regained some ground Monday after several analysts noted both thelikely length of timefor the ruling to take effect and the ways the two tech titans could offset at least some of the presumed loss. The upshot is that few observers see much near-term risk for the two mobile app stores expected to generate a combined $34.7 billion in revenue this calendar year, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.</p><p><blockquote>现在华尔街不太确定了。在几位分析师指出裁决可能需要很长时间才能生效，以及两家科技巨头可以抵消至少部分预期损失的方式后，两家股市周一均收复了一些涨幅。结果是，根据 Visible Alpha 的一致估计，很少有观察家认为这两家移动应用商店的近期风险有太大，这两家移动应用商店预计今年的总收入将达到 347 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has 90 days to implement changes before the ruling takes effect. The company could choose to appeal the decision and seek a stay of the ruling while the matter works through the courts. Apple hasn’t said it would do so: It has focused its public comments so far on the parts of the case where it prevailed, such as the judge’s determination that Apple doesn’t qualify as a legal monopoly. Paul Gallant of Cowen thinks Apple has a strong case for appeal given the trial judge’s “nationwide application of a California state law.”</p><p><blockquote>在裁决生效之前，苹果有90天的时间实施变革。该公司可以选择对该决定提出上诉，并在此事通过法院审理期间寻求暂缓执行裁决。苹果尚未表示会这样做： 迄今为止，它的公开评论主要集中在案件中占上风的部分，如法官认定苹果不符合合法垄断的条件。考恩的保罗-加兰特（Paul Gallant）认为，鉴于初审法官 “在全国范围内适用加州法律”，苹果有充分的上诉理由。</blockquote></p><p> And if the ruling stands, several analysts expressed doubt that every Apple device user would switch to using different payment methods. Kyle McNealy of Jefferies cited “consumer aversion to entering payment details for a high volume of apps separately,” while Katy Huberty ofMorgan Stanleysaid changes from the ruling “would require consumers to manage disparate accounts across many developers, creating more friction than the current App Store model.” Ms. Huberty estimates that, if Apple were to lose all revenue from the 20 largest app developers globally, the loss would equate to about 2% of revenue and 5% of EPS in Apple’s 2022 fiscal year “in a worst-case scenario.”</p><p><blockquote>如果裁决成立，几位分析师对每个苹果设备用户是否会转而使用不同的支付方式表示怀疑。杰富瑞（Jefferies）的凯尔-麦克尼利（Kyle McNealy）列举了 “消费者不愿意单独输入大量应用程序的支付细节”，而摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）则表示，裁决的变化 “将要求消费者管理许多开发者的不同账户，这比目前的应用商店模式产生更多的摩擦”。Huberty 女士估计，如果苹果失去全球 20 家最大应用开发商的所有收入，“在最坏的情况下”，损失将相当于苹果 2022 财年收入的 2% 和每股收益的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> And even if developers secure some savings on the commissions that they have to pay on in-app sales, at least some of that would likely be plowed back into user acquisition. That would likely mean a jump in advertising revenue for Apple, and especially Google, which dominates the online advertising market. Stephen Ju ofCredit Suisseleft his estimates for Google unchanged, writing that increased marketing spending by developers “will likely see Google recapture some lost fees as search/app install revenue.”</p><p><blockquote>即使开发者在应用内销售中节省了一些佣金，至少其中一部分可能会被重新用于用户获取。这可能意味着苹果的广告收入大幅增长，尤其是主导在线广告市场的谷歌。瑞士信贷银行的斯蒂芬-朱（Stephen Ju）维持对谷歌的预期不变，他写道，开发者营销支出的增加 “可能会让谷歌重新夺回一些搜索/应用安装收入损失的费用”。</blockquote></p><p> The rub is that such resilience on the part of two companies valued at a combined $4.4 trillion could further fuel the drive by lawmakers to take big tech down a few pegs. Apple and Google own the two operating systems that power nearly every smartphone on earth, but the mobile app stores for both are small relative to their core businesses at roughly 5% of annual revenues. The two might want to consider if every dollar is worth fighting for.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，两家总估值达 4.4 万亿美元的公司的这种弹性可能会进一步推动立法者降低大型科技公司的一些门槛。苹果和谷歌拥有为地球上几乎所有智能手机提供动力的两种操作系统，但相对于其核心业务，这两种操作系统的移动应用商店都很小，约占年收入的5%。两人可能要考虑一下每一美元是否值得为之奋斗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple, Google Could Still Win From App Store Loss<blockquote>苹果和谷歌仍有可能从 App Store 的损失中受益</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple, Google Could Still Win From App Store Loss<blockquote>苹果和谷歌仍有可能从 App Store 的损失中受益</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 19:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>User friction, developer marketing needs could offset loss of payment exclusivity.</b> AppleInc.AAPL0.39%and Google have ways to mitigate last week’s damaging legal ruling regarding their app store businesses. Ironically, their ability to do so could also prove their critics’ point.</p><p><blockquote><b>用户摩擦、开发商营销需求可以抵消支付排他性的损失。</b>AppleInc.AAPL0.39% 和谷歌有办法减轻上周有关其应用商店业务的破坏性法律裁决。具有讽刺意味的是，他们这样做的能力也可以证明批评者的观点。</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s ruling, in a federal case brought by Epic Games, found that Apple’s policy of preventing alternative payment systems within apps on its devices qualified as “anticompetitive conduct” under California law. Thepresiding judge orderedApple to halt the practice, which could in theoryeat significantly into the revenuegenerated by its App Store from the commissions paid on in-app purchases. Google wasn’t involved in the lawsuit, but investors figured the same fate would eventually befall the company’s Google Play store. Apple shares slid 3% while Google-parentAlphabetInc.fell nearly 2% on Friday following the ruling.</p><p><blockquote>上周，Epic Games 提起的一起联邦案件的裁决认定，根据加州法律，苹果阻止其设备应用程序中使用替代支付系统的政策属于 “反竞争行为”。主审法官命令苹果公司停止这种做法，理论上，这种做法可能会大幅影响其应用商店从应用内购买支付的佣金中产生的收入。谷歌没有卷入诉讼，但投资者认为，同样的命运最终也会降临到该公司的谷歌 Play 商店身上。裁决后，苹果股价周五下跌 3%，而谷歌母公司 PhabetInc. 股价周五下跌近 2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e6653bb213d502972b519902b2c7f39\" tg-width=\"330\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Now Wall Street isn’t so sure. Both stocks regained some ground Monday after several analysts noted both thelikely length of timefor the ruling to take effect and the ways the two tech titans could offset at least some of the presumed loss. The upshot is that few observers see much near-term risk for the two mobile app stores expected to generate a combined $34.7 billion in revenue this calendar year, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.</p><p><blockquote>现在华尔街不太确定了。在几位分析师指出裁决可能需要很长时间才能生效，以及两家科技巨头可以抵消至少部分预期损失的方式后，两家股市周一均收复了一些涨幅。结果是，根据 Visible Alpha 的一致估计，很少有观察家认为这两家移动应用商店的近期风险有太大，这两家移动应用商店预计今年的总收入将达到 347 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has 90 days to implement changes before the ruling takes effect. The company could choose to appeal the decision and seek a stay of the ruling while the matter works through the courts. Apple hasn’t said it would do so: It has focused its public comments so far on the parts of the case where it prevailed, such as the judge’s determination that Apple doesn’t qualify as a legal monopoly. Paul Gallant of Cowen thinks Apple has a strong case for appeal given the trial judge’s “nationwide application of a California state law.”</p><p><blockquote>在裁决生效之前，苹果有90天的时间实施变革。该公司可以选择对该决定提出上诉，并在此事通过法院审理期间寻求暂缓执行裁决。苹果尚未表示会这样做： 迄今为止，它的公开评论主要集中在案件中占上风的部分，如法官认定苹果不符合合法垄断的条件。考恩的保罗-加兰特（Paul Gallant）认为，鉴于初审法官 “在全国范围内适用加州法律”，苹果有充分的上诉理由。</blockquote></p><p> And if the ruling stands, several analysts expressed doubt that every Apple device user would switch to using different payment methods. Kyle McNealy of Jefferies cited “consumer aversion to entering payment details for a high volume of apps separately,” while Katy Huberty ofMorgan Stanleysaid changes from the ruling “would require consumers to manage disparate accounts across many developers, creating more friction than the current App Store model.” Ms. Huberty estimates that, if Apple were to lose all revenue from the 20 largest app developers globally, the loss would equate to about 2% of revenue and 5% of EPS in Apple’s 2022 fiscal year “in a worst-case scenario.”</p><p><blockquote>如果裁决成立，几位分析师对每个苹果设备用户是否会转而使用不同的支付方式表示怀疑。杰富瑞（Jefferies）的凯尔-麦克尼利（Kyle McNealy）列举了 “消费者不愿意单独输入大量应用程序的支付细节”，而摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凯蒂-休伯蒂（Katy Huberty）则表示，裁决的变化 “将要求消费者管理许多开发者的不同账户，这比目前的应用商店模式产生更多的摩擦”。Huberty 女士估计，如果苹果失去全球 20 家最大应用开发商的所有收入，“在最坏的情况下”，损失将相当于苹果 2022 财年收入的 2% 和每股收益的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> And even if developers secure some savings on the commissions that they have to pay on in-app sales, at least some of that would likely be plowed back into user acquisition. That would likely mean a jump in advertising revenue for Apple, and especially Google, which dominates the online advertising market. Stephen Ju ofCredit Suisseleft his estimates for Google unchanged, writing that increased marketing spending by developers “will likely see Google recapture some lost fees as search/app install revenue.”</p><p><blockquote>即使开发者在应用内销售中节省了一些佣金，至少其中一部分可能会被重新用于用户获取。这可能意味着苹果的广告收入大幅增长，尤其是主导在线广告市场的谷歌。瑞士信贷银行的斯蒂芬-朱（Stephen Ju）维持对谷歌的预期不变，他写道，开发者营销支出的增加 “可能会让谷歌重新夺回一些搜索/应用安装收入损失的费用”。</blockquote></p><p> The rub is that such resilience on the part of two companies valued at a combined $4.4 trillion could further fuel the drive by lawmakers to take big tech down a few pegs. Apple and Google own the two operating systems that power nearly every smartphone on earth, but the mobile app stores for both are small relative to their core businesses at roughly 5% of annual revenues. The two might want to consider if every dollar is worth fighting for.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，两家总估值达 4.4 万亿美元的公司的这种弹性可能会进一步推动立法者降低大型科技公司的一些门槛。苹果和谷歌拥有为地球上几乎所有智能手机提供动力的两种操作系统，但相对于其核心业务，这两种操作系统的移动应用商店都很小，约占年收入的5%。两人可能要考虑一下每一美元是否值得为之奋斗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-google-could-still-win-from-app-store-loss-11631617201?mod=rss_markets_main\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-google-could-still-win-from-app-store-loss-11631617201?mod=rss_markets_main","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166249737","content_text":"User friction, developer marketing needs could offset loss of payment exclusivity.\n\nAppleInc.AAPL0.39%and Google have ways to mitigate last week’s damaging legal ruling regarding their app store businesses. Ironically, their ability to do so could also prove their critics’ point.\nLast week’s ruling, in a federal case brought by Epic Games, found that Apple’s policy of preventing alternative payment systems within apps on its devices qualified as “anticompetitive conduct” under California law. Thepresiding judge orderedApple to halt the practice, which could in theoryeat significantly into the revenuegenerated by its App Store from the commissions paid on in-app purchases. Google wasn’t involved in the lawsuit, but investors figured the same fate would eventually befall the company’s Google Play store. Apple shares slid 3% while Google-parentAlphabetInc.fell nearly 2% on Friday following the ruling.\nNow Wall Street isn’t so sure. Both stocks regained some ground Monday after several analysts noted both thelikely length of timefor the ruling to take effect and the ways the two tech titans could offset at least some of the presumed loss. The upshot is that few observers see much near-term risk for the two mobile app stores expected to generate a combined $34.7 billion in revenue this calendar year, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha.\nApple has 90 days to implement changes before the ruling takes effect. The company could choose to appeal the decision and seek a stay of the ruling while the matter works through the courts. Apple hasn’t said it would do so: It has focused its public comments so far on the parts of the case where it prevailed, such as the judge’s determination that Apple doesn’t qualify as a legal monopoly. Paul Gallant of Cowen thinks Apple has a strong case for appeal given the trial judge’s “nationwide application of a California state law.”\nAnd if the ruling stands, several analysts expressed doubt that every Apple device user would switch to using different payment methods. Kyle McNealy of Jefferies cited “consumer aversion to entering payment details for a high volume of apps separately,” while Katy Huberty ofMorgan Stanleysaid changes from the ruling “would require consumers to manage disparate accounts across many developers, creating more friction than the current App Store model.” Ms. Huberty estimates that, if Apple were to lose all revenue from the 20 largest app developers globally, the loss would equate to about 2% of revenue and 5% of EPS in Apple’s 2022 fiscal year “in a worst-case scenario.”\nAnd even if developers secure some savings on the commissions that they have to pay on in-app sales, at least some of that would likely be plowed back into user acquisition. That would likely mean a jump in advertising revenue for Apple, and especially Google, which dominates the online advertising market. Stephen Ju ofCredit Suisseleft his estimates for Google unchanged, writing that increased marketing spending by developers “will likely see Google recapture some lost fees as search/app install revenue.”\nThe rub is that such resilience on the part of two companies valued at a combined $4.4 trillion could further fuel the drive by lawmakers to take big tech down a few pegs. Apple and Google own the two operating systems that power nearly every smartphone on earth, but the mobile app stores for both are small relative to their core businesses at roughly 5% of annual revenues. 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