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2021-09-17
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AMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD 股票：强劲势头和实现强劲复合年回报的道路</blockquote>
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CEO Lisa Su took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of positive press for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices，Inc.，更广为人知的名字是AMD，是过去几年最受年轻投资者欢迎的纳斯达克股票之一，其中许多人对加密货币和/或游戏感兴趣。首席执行官Lisa Su于2014年接任，为公司带来了世界一流的工程知识和商业街智慧。AMD 迅速多元化开发新的产品线，此后因其以合理的价格提供性能而获得了大量正面评价。如果你看一下 AMD 的长期价格图表，你会发现它是一只非常繁荣和萧条的股票，显然，半导体业务是周期性的，但前任管理层有过度杠杆化公司的习惯，导致回报低于其他情况，因为大部分回报流向了债权人而不是股东。现在，AMD 在股价和业务方面都有很多积极的势头。AMD会继续获胜吗？我相信是的，我会解释为什么。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d63abb98a3a3779a37169300fade7a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>In the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company now has an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.</li> <li>AMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.</li> <li>The party may just be getting started. A recent piece in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.</li> <li>Management may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has crushed earnings estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.</li> <li>AMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.</li> <li>AMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.</li> <li>Intel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.</li> <li>There are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去，缺乏多元化和过多的杠杆迫使 AMD 在经济衰退期间通过垃圾债券（通常是通过可转换债务）筹集资金。可转换债务价格昂贵，因为它通常支付利息并稀释股东。一般来说，可转换债券通常受到精明的高净值投资者和机构的青睐，而散户投资者则倾向于认为普通股代表整个公司（事实并非如此），并允许华尔街对它们进行自由射击。可转换债务往往由信用评级较低和/或投机性商业前景的公司发行。随着时间的推移，AMD 和美光 (MU) 等其他芯片公司的财务状况大大改善，导致在许多情况下不再需要可转换债务。半导体的新一代管理团队已经弄清楚了如何更好地管理风险和利用杠杆，使他们能够牢牢抓住21世纪任何行业最大的增长机会之一。一般来说，你可以通过投资至少具有投资级信用评级的公司的股票来解决过度杠杆问题（研究表明，信用评级高的公司的回报往往更好）。AMD在业务多元化和减少债务方面的努力得到了回报，该公司现在拥有投资级信用评级。我预计市场将以相对于整个市场越来越低的利率提供 AMD capital，从而形成一个良性循环，这将成为未来的巨大推动力。</li><li>AMD已经宣布他们正在收购芯片制造商赛灵思（XLNX），一致的意见似乎是从战略角度来看，这是一笔不错的交易（这里有一些交易分析）。不过，这笔交易实际上可能会也可能不会完成，中国监管机构需要批准这笔交易。如果交易没有完成，我不认为它会给 AMD 带来很大的价格风险，但这将是一个很好的机会。</li><li>派对可能才刚刚开始。《巴伦周刊》最近的一篇文章表明，如果 AMD 将部分利润再投资于该业务，那么该公司在 2024 年的每股收益可能会超过 7 美元。</li><li>管理层对盈利指引可能相当保守，该公司最近几个季度的盈利预期大幅下调就证明了这一点。大多数分析师只对 2023 年做出了预测，但他们确实认为 AMD 的盈利每年增长 20% 以上。我认为这些估计太低了，AMD 股票的升值应该或多或少与盈利增长保持一致。2022 年收益为 3.50 美元，市盈率为 36 倍，这意味着 AMD 的 12 个月目标价约为 126 美元（上涨 20%），如果他们能够赶上供应链，还有更多上涨空间。</li><li>AMD 认为数据中心是一个每年超过 300 亿美元的潜在市场机会。正如最近的电话会议所指出的，AMD 正在稳步拉动服务器类别（包括数据中心）的市场份额。这里的想法是，AMD在过去几年里打造了比英特尔（INTC）更优越的技术，迫使英特尔迎头赶上（这在技术领域需要很长时间），给了AMD一个压制优势的机会。</li><li>AMD将制造外包给台湾，如果中国大陆/台湾地缘政治局势发生变化，这确实会给公司带来风险。此外，赛灵思的收购需要中国的批准，这意味着AMD面临着来自中国几个不同角度的风险。到目前为止，芯片短缺在一定程度上限制了 AMD 供应市场的能力，其交货时间高于竞争对手。另一方面，如果芯片短缺确实有所缓解，这可能是该公司的积极催化剂。</li><li>英特尔是半导体行业的大象，但自苏黎世接手以来，AMD 处处击败英特尔。英特尔股票的市盈率比 AMD 低得多，但增长前景较低。最近有消息称，英特尔愿意降低服务器CPU价格以赢回业务，但AMD芯片在性能和能耗方面比较有利。赢得半导体市场份额不仅仅是降价，如果你销售低效的廉价芯片，导致你的客户不得不在电力上花费更多，那么降价对你的帮助就不会像你想象的那么大。由于数据中心持续的运营成本，无论竞争对手采取何种定价策略，AMD都可以单独通过构建技术来赢得市场份额。</li><li>AMD 存在宏观和微观风险。宏观风险是众所周知的，主要与地缘政治、供应链问题和全球经济有关。AMD的微观问题通常与其作为失败者的永久地位有关。例如，英特尔拥有更大的市场份额和更多的研发资源，但AMD在技术上获得了相对于他们的优势。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Academic research generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.</p><p><blockquote>学术研究普遍认为，投资者在为成功企业的股票定价时，对成功的反应不足。这与行为金融因素有关，例如投资者在持有亏损股票的同时获取利润并将其花掉（称为处置效应），以及商业因素（良好的管理层往往会不断获胜）。在许多情况下，这导致赢得股票的年回报率超过 20%。虽然半导体业务具有周期性，这意味着当周期不可避免地再次转变时，AMD 股东可能希望出售，但 AMD 是目前市场上最干净的动量股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.</p><p><blockquote>如果该公司在未来 12 个月内再上涨 20-25%，我一点也不会感到惊讶。如果《巴伦周刊》的盈利看涨期权正确，如果市盈率至少能保持在 28-30 倍范围内，到 2024 年，AMD 的交易价格应该会接近 200 美元，年复合回报率约为 25%。尽管存在与半导体周期、地缘政治和竞争相关的风险，但 AMD 似乎是当今科技领域最值得购买的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD 股票：强劲势头和实现强劲复合年回报的道路</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Stock: Strong Momentum And Path To Strong Compounded Annual Returns<blockquote>AMD 股票：强劲势头和实现强劲复合年回报的道路</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 15:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In the dark days of 2015 and 2016, AMD traded for less than $3 and the company was loaded down with junk bonds.</li> <li>Today, AMD's tech is getting positive reviews, the balance sheet is cleaned up, and there are big opportunities to continue grabbing market share in data centers.</li> <li>AMD just raised revenue and margin guidance, with some analysts expecting AMD to earn as much as $7 per share by 2024.</li> <li>Why momentum investing works and how to execute it with AMD.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vchal/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在2015年和2016年的黑暗日子里，AMD的交易价格不到3美元，该公司充斥着垃圾债券。</li><li>如今，AMD的技术正在获得积极的评价，资产负债表正在被清理，并且有很大的机会继续抢占数据中心的市场份额。</li><li>AMD 刚刚上调了收入和利润率指引，一些分析师预计 AMD 到 2024 年每股收益将高达 7 美元。</li><li>为什么动量投资有效，以及如何使用AMD执行它。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vchal/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., better known as AMD, is one of the most popular NASDAQ stocks over the past few years with young investors, many of whom are into cryptocurrency and/or gaming. CEO Lisa Su took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of positive press for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices，Inc.，更广为人知的名字是AMD，是过去几年最受年轻投资者欢迎的纳斯达克股票之一，其中许多人对加密货币和/或游戏感兴趣。首席执行官Lisa Su于2014年接任，为公司带来了世界一流的工程知识和商业街智慧。AMD 迅速多元化开发新的产品线，此后因其以合理的价格提供性能而获得了大量正面评价。如果你看一下 AMD 的长期价格图表，你会发现它是一只非常繁荣和萧条的股票，显然，半导体业务是周期性的，但前任管理层有过度杠杆化公司的习惯，导致回报低于其他情况，因为大部分回报流向了债权人而不是股东。现在，AMD 在股价和业务方面都有很多积极的势头。AMD会继续获胜吗？我相信是的，我会解释为什么。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d63abb98a3a3779a37169300fade7a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>In the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company now has an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.</li> <li>AMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.</li> <li>The party may just be getting started. A recent piece in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.</li> <li>Management may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has crushed earnings estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.</li> <li>AMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.</li> <li>AMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.</li> <li>Intel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.</li> <li>There are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>过去，缺乏多元化和过多的杠杆迫使 AMD 在经济衰退期间通过垃圾债券（通常是通过可转换债务）筹集资金。可转换债务价格昂贵，因为它通常支付利息并稀释股东。一般来说，可转换债券通常受到精明的高净值投资者和机构的青睐，而散户投资者则倾向于认为普通股代表整个公司（事实并非如此），并允许华尔街对它们进行自由射击。可转换债务往往由信用评级较低和/或投机性商业前景的公司发行。随着时间的推移，AMD 和美光 (MU) 等其他芯片公司的财务状况大大改善，导致在许多情况下不再需要可转换债务。半导体的新一代管理团队已经弄清楚了如何更好地管理风险和利用杠杆，使他们能够牢牢抓住21世纪任何行业最大的增长机会之一。一般来说，你可以通过投资至少具有投资级信用评级的公司的股票来解决过度杠杆问题（研究表明，信用评级高的公司的回报往往更好）。AMD在业务多元化和减少债务方面的努力得到了回报，该公司现在拥有投资级信用评级。我预计市场将以相对于整个市场越来越低的利率提供 AMD capital，从而形成一个良性循环，这将成为未来的巨大推动力。</li><li>AMD已经宣布他们正在收购芯片制造商赛灵思（XLNX），一致的意见似乎是从战略角度来看，这是一笔不错的交易（这里有一些交易分析）。不过，这笔交易实际上可能会也可能不会完成，中国监管机构需要批准这笔交易。如果交易没有完成，我不认为它会给 AMD 带来很大的价格风险，但这将是一个很好的机会。</li><li>派对可能才刚刚开始。《巴伦周刊》最近的一篇文章表明，如果 AMD 将部分利润再投资于该业务，那么该公司在 2024 年的每股收益可能会超过 7 美元。</li><li>管理层对盈利指引可能相当保守，该公司最近几个季度的盈利预期大幅下调就证明了这一点。大多数分析师只对 2023 年做出了预测，但他们确实认为 AMD 的盈利每年增长 20% 以上。我认为这些估计太低了，AMD 股票的升值应该或多或少与盈利增长保持一致。2022 年收益为 3.50 美元，市盈率为 36 倍，这意味着 AMD 的 12 个月目标价约为 126 美元（上涨 20%），如果他们能够赶上供应链，还有更多上涨空间。</li><li>AMD 认为数据中心是一个每年超过 300 亿美元的潜在市场机会。正如最近的电话会议所指出的，AMD 正在稳步拉动服务器类别（包括数据中心）的市场份额。这里的想法是，AMD在过去几年里打造了比英特尔（INTC）更优越的技术，迫使英特尔迎头赶上（这在技术领域需要很长时间），给了AMD一个压制优势的机会。</li><li>AMD将制造外包给台湾，如果中国大陆/台湾地缘政治局势发生变化，这确实会给公司带来风险。此外，赛灵思的收购需要中国的批准，这意味着AMD面临着来自中国几个不同角度的风险。到目前为止，芯片短缺在一定程度上限制了 AMD 供应市场的能力，其交货时间高于竞争对手。另一方面，如果芯片短缺确实有所缓解，这可能是该公司的积极催化剂。</li><li>英特尔是半导体行业的大象，但自苏黎世接手以来，AMD 处处击败英特尔。英特尔股票的市盈率比 AMD 低得多，但增长前景较低。最近有消息称，英特尔愿意降低服务器CPU价格以赢回业务，但AMD芯片在性能和能耗方面比较有利。赢得半导体市场份额不仅仅是降价，如果你销售低效的廉价芯片，导致你的客户不得不在电力上花费更多，那么降价对你的帮助就不会像你想象的那么大。由于数据中心持续的运营成本，无论竞争对手采取何种定价策略，AMD都可以单独通过构建技术来赢得市场份额。</li><li>AMD 存在宏观和微观风险。宏观风险是众所周知的，主要与地缘政治、供应链问题和全球经济有关。AMD的微观问题通常与其作为失败者的永久地位有关。例如，英特尔拥有更大的市场份额和更多的研发资源，但AMD在技术上获得了相对于他们的优势。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Academic research generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.</p><p><blockquote>学术研究普遍认为，投资者在为成功企业的股票定价时，对成功的反应不足。这与行为金融因素有关，例如投资者在持有亏损股票的同时获取利润并将其花掉（称为处置效应），以及商业因素（良好的管理层往往会不断获胜）。在许多情况下，这导致赢得股票的年回报率超过 20%。虽然半导体业务具有周期性，这意味着当周期不可避免地再次转变时，AMD 股东可能希望出售，但 AMD 是目前市场上最干净的动量股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.</p><p><blockquote>如果该公司在未来 12 个月内再上涨 20-25%，我一点也不会感到惊讶。如果《巴伦周刊》的盈利看涨期权正确，如果市盈率至少能保持在 28-30 倍范围内，到 2024 年，AMD 的交易价格应该会接近 200 美元，年复合回报率约为 25%。尽管存在与半导体周期、地缘政治和竞争相关的风险，但 AMD 似乎是当今科技领域最值得购买的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455692-amd-stock-strong-momentum-and-path-to-strong-compounded-annual-returns\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455692-amd-stock-strong-momentum-and-path-to-strong-compounded-annual-returns","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189843549","content_text":"Summary\n\nIn the dark days of 2015 and 2016, AMD traded for less than $3 and the company was loaded down with junk bonds.\nToday, AMD's tech is getting positive reviews, the balance sheet is cleaned up, and there are big opportunities to continue grabbing market share in data centers.\nAMD just raised revenue and margin guidance, with some analysts expecting AMD to earn as much as $7 per share by 2024.\nWhy momentum investing works and how to execute it with AMD.\n\nvchal/iStock via Getty Images\nAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc., better known as AMD, is one of the most popular NASDAQ stocks over the past few years with young investors, many of whom are into cryptocurrency and/or gaming. CEO Lisa Su took over in 2014, bringing both world-class engineering knowledge and business street smarts to the company. AMD quickly diversified into new product lines and has since gotten plenty of positive press for offering performance at a reasonable price. If you look at a long-run price graph of AMD, you'll see that it's a very boom and bust stock, obviously, the semiconductor business is cyclical, but the previous management had a habit of overleveraging the company, causing returns to be lower than they would be otherwise because much of the return went to creditors and not shareholders. Now AMD has a bunch of positive momentum, both in the share price and the business. Will AMD keep winning? I believe so, and I'll explain why.\nData by YCharts\n\nIn the past, lack of diversification and too much leverage forced AMD to raise capital during down cycles through junk bonds, often via convertible debt. Convertible debt is expensive because it generally pays interest and dilutes shareholders. As a general rule, convertible debt is generally preferred by savvy high-net-worth investors and institutions while retail investors tend to assume the common stock represents the whole company (it doesn't) and allow Wall Street to take free shots at them. Convertible debt tends to be issued by companies with low credit ratings and/or speculative business prospects. AMD and other chip companies like Micron (MU) have greatly improved their financial position over time, leading to the convertible debt no longer being necessary in many cases. The new generation of management teams at semiconductors has figured out how to manage risk and leverage better, allowing them to firmly take advantage of one of the biggest growth opportunities for any industry in the 21st century. You can get around the problem of overleverage, in general, by investing in the stocks of companies that have at least investment-grade credit ratings (research showst he returns tend to be better anyway for companies with strong credit ratings). AMD's hard work in diversifying the business and reducing debt has paid off, and the company now has an investment-grade credit rating. I would expect the markets to offer AMD capital at lower and lower rates relative to the market at large, bringing a virtuous circle that should act as a great tailwind going forward.\nAMD has announced that they are acquiring chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX), and the consensus opinion seems to be that it's a good deal from a strategic standpoint (some deal analysis here). The deal may or may not actually close though, and Chinese regulators need to approve the deal. If the deal doesn't close, I don't view it as posing a large price risk to AMD, but it would be a nice kicker.\nThe party may just be getting started. A recent piece in Barron's suggested that AMD could earn over $7 per share in 2024 if the company reinvests some of its profit in the business.\nManagement may be being fairly conservative with their earnings guidance, as evidenced by how much the company has crushed earnings estimates in recent quarters. Most analysts only have estimates going out to 2023, but they do have AMD growing earnings by 20+ percent annually each year. I think these estimates are too low, and AMD stock should appreciate more or less in line with earnings growth. $3.50 in 2022 earnings and a 36x multiple would imply a 12-month price target of roughly $126 for AMD (20 percent upside), with more upside to come if they can get the supply chain caught up.\nAMD believes data centers are a $30 billion-plus annual total-addressable-market opportunity. As was noted on the mostrecent conference call, AMD is steadily pulling market share for the server category, which includes data centers. The idea here is that AMD has built superior technology than Intel (INTC) over the past few years, forcing Intel to play catch-up (which takes a long time in the tech space) and giving AMD a chance to press its advantage.\nAMD outsources manufacturing to Taiwan, which does create risk for the company if the China/Taiwan geopolitical situation changes. Additionally, the Xilinx acquisition requires Chinese approval, meaning that AMD has risk from a couple of different angles from China. So far, thechip shortage has somewhat constrained AMD's ability to supply the market, with lead times higher there than with their competitors. On the flip side, if the chip shortage does ease, this could be a positive catalyst for the company.\nIntel is the elephant in the semiconductor industry, but AMD has outmaneuvered Intel at every turn so far since Lisa Su took over. Intel stock offers a much lower price to earnings multiple than AMD, but lower growth prospects.Recent newsis that Intel is willing to cut server CPU prices to win business back, but the AMD chips compare favorably on performance and energy consumption. Winning semiconductor market share is more than cutting prices, if you sell cheap chips that are inefficient and cause your customers to have to spend more on electricity, then cutting prices isn't going to help you as much as you think. Due to the ongoing carrying costs of data centers, AMD can win market share by building technology alone, no matter what pricing strategy their competitors do.\nThere are macro and micro risks to AMD. The macro risks are well-known and mainly relate to geopolitics, supply chain issues, and the global economy at large. The micro issues with AMD often relate to its perpetual status as the underdog. Intel, for example, has a greater market share and more R&D resources, but AMD has gained an advantage in technology over them. To win in the market, AMD must press this advantage and reinvest in R&D. After all, investing in technology is high-risk, high-reward. Winning tech companies make fortunes for their investors while losing ones tend to be forgotten to history. This is one reason why momentum investing and technology stocks go hand in hand.\n\nAMD Stock Forecast\nAcademic research generally holds that investors underreact to success when pricing the stocks of winning businesses. This has to do with behavioral finance factors, like investors taking their profits and spending them while holding losing stocks (known as the disposition effect), as well as business factors (good managements tend to keep winning). This leads to returns above 20 percent annually for winning stocks in many cases. While the semiconductor business is cyclical, meaning that AMD shareholders may want to sell when the cycle inevitably turns again, AMD is one of the cleanest momentum stocks on the market right now.\nI wouldn't be surprised in the least if the company rises another 20-25 percent from here in the next 12 months. If the Barron's earnings call is correct, AMD should trade close to $200 by 2024 if the PE can remain at least in the 28-30x range, for an annual compound return of roughly 25 percent. While there are risks related to the semiconductor cycle, geopolitics, and competition, AMD seems to be one of the best buys in tech today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2492,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/884189044"}
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