WanEH
2021-09-17
Good
Buy Micron Before It's Too Late<blockquote>趁现在还来得及购买美光</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
3
6
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":884169199,"tweetId":"884169199","gmtCreate":1631868080311,"gmtModify":1632805693085,"author":{"id":4089383496572850,"idStr":"4089383496572850","authorId":4089383496572850,"authorIdStr":"4089383496572850","name":"WanEH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f13510c4daf7c6eff3a61591fdca817","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":27,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Good</p></body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884169199","repostId":1179511931,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179511931","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631867750,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179511931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 16:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy Micron Before It's Too Late<blockquote>趁现在还来得及购买美光</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179511931","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Micron just fell into negative territory for the year.\nBut, Micron’s revenues and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Micron just fell into negative territory for the year.</li> <li>But, Micron’s revenues and gross margins are still in a period of expansion.</li> <li>ASP growth in DRAM and NAND and increased bit shipments could push Micron’s margin closer to 50% in the fourth quarter.</li> <li>Micron’s growth is cheap.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6943b055b8a3f717a6e1f6c038c065\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美光的股价刚刚跌入今年的负值区域。</li><li>但是，美光的收入和毛利率仍处于扩张期。</li><li>DRAM 和 NAND 的平均售价增长以及比特出货量的增加可能会推动美光第四季度的利润率接近 50%。</li><li>美光的增长是廉价的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Micron Technology's (MU) commercial performance is excellent, the firm’s shares have trended downwards since April. But with Micron set to open its books for the fourth quarter at the end of September, the memory company could initiate a new upleg.<b>Micron’s growth has a discount valuation</b></p><p><blockquote>虽然美光科技（MU）的商业业绩非常出色，但该公司的股价自 4 月份以来一直呈下跌趋势。但随着美光将于 9 月底公布第四季度财务报表，这家内存公司可能会启动新的 upleg。<b>美光的增长有折扣估值</b></blockquote></p><p> There is a big disconnect between Micron’s business and stock performance. Although the memory firm has enjoyed strengthening revenue growth in its main DRAM business and higher gross margins in FY 2021, shares of Micron have not performed nearly as well. Micron now posts a negative return of 1.8% year to date, but the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings card, set to be put on the table on September 28, 2021, could re-energize the shares.</p><p><blockquote>美光的业务与股票表现之间存在很大的脱节。尽管这家内存公司在 2021 财年的主要 DRAM 业务收入增长强劲，毛利率也有所上升，但美光的股价表现却远不及此。美光公司今年迄今为止的负回报率为 1.8%，但该公司将于 2021 年 9 月 28 日公布的第四季度收益卡可能会给股价带来新的活力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c829571acfd54e941f1e37db53c201\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based off of Micron’s commercial scorecard for the third quarter, the memory firm is in its best shape in years. Micron’s third-quarter revenues soared 36% year over year to $7.4B. The big driver of Micron’s revenue growth this year has been the DRAM business which benefits from strong demand from end markets and increasing average selling prices/ASPs. Micron’s DRAM business generated revenues of $5.4B in the third quarter, showing an increase of 52% year over year and a 23% top line improvement over the prior quarter. DRAM revenues generated 73% of all revenues for the firm and while bit shipments increased only slightly in FQ3’21, average DRAM selling prices jumped 20% quarter over quarter, strongly supporting Micron’s revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据美光第三季度的商业记分卡，这家内存公司处于多年来的最佳状态。美光第三季度收入同比飙升 36%，达到 74 亿美元。美光今年收入增长的主要驱动力是 DRAM 业务，该业务受益于终端市场的强劲需求和平均售价/平均售价的不断提高。美光的 DRAM 业务第三季度营收为 54 亿美元，同比增长 52%，营收比上一季度提高 23%。DRAM 收入占公司总收入的 73%，虽然 21 年第三季度比特出货量仅略有增长，但 DRAM 平均售价环比跃升 20%，有力地支撑了美光的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s second business, the NAND segment, saw relatively moderate revenue growth of 9% year over year to $1.8B in the third quarter and it is not nearly as important as the DRAM business regarding revenue contribution. The NAND segment represents just 24% of Micron’s total revenues, but the percentage is set to increase going forward as the firm accelerates the roll-out of its new 176-layer NAND node which promises better performance and higher read/write speeds compared to previous gen technology.</p><p><blockquote>美光的第二项业务 NAND 业务第三季度收入同比增长 9%，达到 18 亿美元，相对温和，在收入贡献方面远不及 DRAM 业务。NAND 部门仅占美光总收入的 24%，但随着该公司加快推出新的 176 层 NAND 节点，这一比例将继续上升，与上一代技术相比，该节点有望提供更好的性能和更高的读/写速度。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s earnings card for the fourth quarter is just three weeks away, which makes this a good time to discuss what we can expect from Micron’s last fiscal quarter of the year.</p><p><blockquote>距离美光第四季度的收益卡只有三周时间了，这是讨论美光今年最后一个财季的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Based off of Micron’s guidance, the firm expects sustained business momentum in the fourth-quarter, with revenues expected to shoot up to $8.2B +/- $200 million and gross margins to grow to 47.0% +/- 1%. If Micron hits the base-case forecast, the memory firm is set to increase its revenues 10% quarter over quarter and expand its gross margin by 4.1 PP. In the high case, Micron could generate $8.4B in fourth-quarter revenues (13% quarter over quarter growth) and gross margins of 48.0%, signaling an increase of 5.1 PP, quarter over quarter.</p><p><blockquote>根据美光的指导，该公司预计第四季度的业务势头将持续，收入预计将飙升至 82 亿美元 +/- 2 亿美元，毛利率将增长至 47.0% +/- 1%。如果美光达到基本情况预测，这家内存公司的收入将环比增长 10%，毛利率将扩大 4.1 个百分点。在高情况下，美光第四季度收入可能达到 8.4B 美元（环比增长 13%），毛利率为 48.0%，环比增长 5.1 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d89b8802b7996741e4b60b54a54845\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Micron</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美光</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is likely that end markets remained strong in Micron’s fourth quarter - Samsung and SK Hynix forecasted strong memory chip demand for the second half of the year (Source 1 and Source 2) - and, because of this, that both DRAM and NAND ASPs continued to see quarter over quarter growth. Samsung is the world's largest DRAM memory chip manufacturer by sales and market share, followed by SK Hynix and then Micron. All three companies saw a boost to their earnings in FY 2021 due to strong market conditions in memory chip markets.</p><p><blockquote>美光第四季度终端市场很可能保持强劲--三星和SK海力士预测下半年内存芯片需求强劲（来源 1 和来源 2）--正因为如此，DRAM 和 NAND 平均售价均继续环比增长。按销售额和市场份额计算，三星是全球最大的DRAM存储芯片制造商，其次是SK海力士，然后是美光。由于存储芯片市场的强劲市场状况，这三家公司在 2021 财年的盈利均有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e283b9bc8c553794392443dd078baf1f\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TrendForce, Pulsenews</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TrendForce、Pulsenews</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The DRAM market is still in a severe supply shortage which is why Micron's average selling prices surged 20% in the last quarter. Micron has said that it expects the chip supply crunch is going to drag into 2022. The supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic and resulted when a quicker than expected rebound in chip demand from the auto industry coincided with surging demand for consumer electronics. By some estimates, the supply shortage could last until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>DRAM市场仍然严重供应短缺，这就是为什么美光的平均售价在上一季度飙升了20%。美光表示，预计芯片供应紧缩将持续到 2022 年。供应短缺源于 COVID-19 大流行，其原因是汽车行业芯片需求反弹速度快于预期，同时消费电子产品需求激增。据估计，供应短缺可能会持续到2023年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I don’t expect strengthening DRAM ASP growth for the fourth quarter, but Micron could still see mid-single digit ASP growth in its core DRAM market. For that reason, I estimate that Micron will see an increase in the percentage of revenues generated from DRAM product sales. In FQ3’21, Micron generated 73% of sales from DRAM shipments and this percentage is poised to rise even higher in FQ4’21. Depending on how resilient DRAM product pricing was in Micron’s fourth quarter, the firm could move closer to a 50% gross margin and issue a new, strong forecast for FQ1’22.</p><p><blockquote>我预计第四季度 DRAM 平均售价增长不会加强，但美光在其核心 DRAM 市场的平均售价仍有可能实现中个位数的增长。因此，我估计美光将看到 DRAM 产品销售产生的收入百分比增加。2021 年第三季度，美光 73% 的销售额来自 DRAM 出货量，2021 年第四季度这一比例还会更高。根据美光第四季度 DRAM 产品定价的弹性，该公司可能会接近 50% 的毛利率，并对 22 年第一季度发布新的强劲预测。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes will likely have seen higher shipment volumes in the fourth quarter. Longer term, I expect Micron’s NAND business to see stronger growth and Micron’s DRAM business to decelerate as the supply shortage in the DRAM market gets resolved and Micron accelerates shipments of its new 176-layer NAND node. Because of Micron’s investments in NAND innovation, Micron could grow the share of NAND-generated revenues from 24% in FQ3’21 to 30-35% over the next 1 or 2 years.</p><p><blockquote>美光的 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 层 NAND 节点在第四季度的出货量可能会更高。从长远来看，随着 DRAM 市场供应短缺的问题得到解决，以及美光加速新的 176 层 NAND 节点的出货，我预计美光的 NAND 业务将实现更强劲的增长，而美光的 DRAM 业务将放缓。由于美光在 NAND 创新方面的投资，美光在 NAND 收入中的份额可能会从 2021 年第三季度的 24% 增长到未来 1 到 2 年内的 30-35%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron is growing rapidly and there is no indication that this growth is slowing down. Micron is set to add one billion dollars to its top line in the fourth quarter alone, and growth, so far, is still strengthening. Estimates call for $37.0B in revenues (33% year over year growth) and $11.20 in EPS (87% year over year growth) for FY 2022, implying that Micron’s growth is undervalued at an earnings multiplier factor around seven. Micron’s estimates are rising and refreshed updates after the release of the FQ4’21 earnings card could create fertile ground for a new upleg.</p><p><blockquote>美光正在快速增长，没有迹象表明这种增长正在放缓。美光计划仅在第四季度就为其营收增加 10 亿美元，而且到目前为止，增长仍在加强。看涨期权预计 2022 财年的收入为 370 亿美元（同比增长 33%），每股收益为 11.20 美元（同比增长 87%），这意味着美光的增长被低估了，市盈率乘数系数约为 7。美光的预估正在上升，在发布 2021 年第四季度收益卡后，美光的更新可能会为新的上涨创造肥沃的土壤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d32e2254ff113771bc630708156433b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to risk, the supply shortage in Micron’s DRAM business fueled DRAM ASP growth this year, but as the market corrects this imbalance, DRAM prices could come down substantially... which is a risk for the stock. Since DRAM sales account for 73% of Micron’s total revenues, falling average DRAM selling prices are poised to weigh on Micron’s commercial performance more than a similar decrease in NAND ASPs would. However, Micron could, potentially, counter some of these DRAM pricing risks by increasing shipments of its newest NAND products. As the company gets ready to scale its NAND business, a decline in DRAM revenues could be counterbalanced by higher NAND revenues. Besides falling DRAM prices, a slowdown in revenue growth and lower gross margins would indicate the end of the current semiconductor cycle and lower capital/stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>转向风险，美光DRAM业务的供应短缺推动了今年DRAM平均售价的增长，但随着市场纠正这种不平衡，DRAM价格可能会大幅下降...这对股票来说是一个风险。由于 DRAM 销售额占美光总收入的 73%，DRAM 平均销售价格的下降将对美光商业业绩造成比 NAND ASP 的类似下降更大的压力。然而，美光有可能通过增加其最新 NAND 产品的出货量来抵消一些 DRAM 定价风险。随着该公司准备扩大其 NAND 业务，DRAM 收入的下降可能会被 NAND 收入的增加所抵消。除了 DRAM 价格下跌外，收入增长放缓和毛利率下降也预示着当前半导体周期的结束和资本/股票回报率的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> For the last fiscal quarter of the year, I expect Micron to table a very strong earnings card with revenues coming in at the top of guidance and gross margins potentially exceeding Micron’s own forecast… which could push shares of Micron into a new upleg.</p><p><blockquote>对于今年的最后一个财政季度，我预计美光将呈现出非常强劲的盈利状况，收入将高于指导值，毛利率可能会超过美光自己的预测.这可能会推动美光股价进入新的上升期。</blockquote></p><p> Due to strength in consumer end markets, ASPs in both DRAM and NAND segments likely grew at a positive rate in Micron’s fourth quarter. Increased bit shipments for 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes and a DRAM supply shortage all help to set Micron up for continual growth in FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>由于消费终端市场的强劲势头，美光第四季度 DRAM 和 NAND 部门的平均售价都可能实现正增长。1-alpha DRAM 和 176 层 NAND 节点的比特出货量增加以及 DRAM 供应短缺都有助于美光在 2022 财年实现持续增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy Micron Before It's Too Late<blockquote>趁现在还来得及购买美光</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy Micron Before It's Too Late<blockquote>趁现在还来得及购买美光</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 16:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Micron just fell into negative territory for the year.</li> <li>But, Micron’s revenues and gross margins are still in a period of expansion.</li> <li>ASP growth in DRAM and NAND and increased bit shipments could push Micron’s margin closer to 50% in the fourth quarter.</li> <li>Micron’s growth is cheap.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6943b055b8a3f717a6e1f6c038c065\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美光的股价刚刚跌入今年的负值区域。</li><li>但是，美光的收入和毛利率仍处于扩张期。</li><li>DRAM 和 NAND 的平均售价增长以及比特出货量的增加可能会推动美光第四季度的利润率接近 50%。</li><li>美光的增长是廉价的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While Micron Technology's (MU) commercial performance is excellent, the firm’s shares have trended downwards since April. But with Micron set to open its books for the fourth quarter at the end of September, the memory company could initiate a new upleg.<b>Micron’s growth has a discount valuation</b></p><p><blockquote>虽然美光科技（MU）的商业业绩非常出色，但该公司的股价自 4 月份以来一直呈下跌趋势。但随着美光将于 9 月底公布第四季度财务报表，这家内存公司可能会启动新的 upleg。<b>美光的增长有折扣估值</b></blockquote></p><p> There is a big disconnect between Micron’s business and stock performance. Although the memory firm has enjoyed strengthening revenue growth in its main DRAM business and higher gross margins in FY 2021, shares of Micron have not performed nearly as well. Micron now posts a negative return of 1.8% year to date, but the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings card, set to be put on the table on September 28, 2021, could re-energize the shares.</p><p><blockquote>美光的业务与股票表现之间存在很大的脱节。尽管这家内存公司在 2021 财年的主要 DRAM 业务收入增长强劲，毛利率也有所上升，但美光的股价表现却远不及此。美光公司今年迄今为止的负回报率为 1.8%，但该公司将于 2021 年 9 月 28 日公布的第四季度收益卡可能会给股价带来新的活力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c829571acfd54e941f1e37db53c201\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based off of Micron’s commercial scorecard for the third quarter, the memory firm is in its best shape in years. Micron’s third-quarter revenues soared 36% year over year to $7.4B. The big driver of Micron’s revenue growth this year has been the DRAM business which benefits from strong demand from end markets and increasing average selling prices/ASPs. Micron’s DRAM business generated revenues of $5.4B in the third quarter, showing an increase of 52% year over year and a 23% top line improvement over the prior quarter. DRAM revenues generated 73% of all revenues for the firm and while bit shipments increased only slightly in FQ3’21, average DRAM selling prices jumped 20% quarter over quarter, strongly supporting Micron’s revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据美光第三季度的商业记分卡，这家内存公司处于多年来的最佳状态。美光第三季度收入同比飙升 36%，达到 74 亿美元。美光今年收入增长的主要驱动力是 DRAM 业务，该业务受益于终端市场的强劲需求和平均售价/平均售价的不断提高。美光的 DRAM 业务第三季度营收为 54 亿美元，同比增长 52%，营收比上一季度提高 23%。DRAM 收入占公司总收入的 73%，虽然 21 年第三季度比特出货量仅略有增长，但 DRAM 平均售价环比跃升 20%，有力地支撑了美光的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s second business, the NAND segment, saw relatively moderate revenue growth of 9% year over year to $1.8B in the third quarter and it is not nearly as important as the DRAM business regarding revenue contribution. The NAND segment represents just 24% of Micron’s total revenues, but the percentage is set to increase going forward as the firm accelerates the roll-out of its new 176-layer NAND node which promises better performance and higher read/write speeds compared to previous gen technology.</p><p><blockquote>美光的第二项业务 NAND 业务第三季度收入同比增长 9%，达到 18 亿美元，相对温和，在收入贡献方面远不及 DRAM 业务。NAND 部门仅占美光总收入的 24%，但随着该公司加快推出新的 176 层 NAND 节点，这一比例将继续上升，与上一代技术相比，该节点有望提供更好的性能和更高的读/写速度。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s earnings card for the fourth quarter is just three weeks away, which makes this a good time to discuss what we can expect from Micron’s last fiscal quarter of the year.</p><p><blockquote>距离美光第四季度的收益卡只有三周时间了，这是讨论美光今年最后一个财季的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Based off of Micron’s guidance, the firm expects sustained business momentum in the fourth-quarter, with revenues expected to shoot up to $8.2B +/- $200 million and gross margins to grow to 47.0% +/- 1%. If Micron hits the base-case forecast, the memory firm is set to increase its revenues 10% quarter over quarter and expand its gross margin by 4.1 PP. In the high case, Micron could generate $8.4B in fourth-quarter revenues (13% quarter over quarter growth) and gross margins of 48.0%, signaling an increase of 5.1 PP, quarter over quarter.</p><p><blockquote>根据美光的指导，该公司预计第四季度的业务势头将持续，收入预计将飙升至 82 亿美元 +/- 2 亿美元，毛利率将增长至 47.0% +/- 1%。如果美光达到基本情况预测，这家内存公司的收入将环比增长 10%，毛利率将扩大 4.1 个百分点。在高情况下，美光第四季度收入可能达到 8.4B 美元（环比增长 13%），毛利率为 48.0%，环比增长 5.1 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d89b8802b7996741e4b60b54a54845\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Micron</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美光</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is likely that end markets remained strong in Micron’s fourth quarter - Samsung and SK Hynix forecasted strong memory chip demand for the second half of the year (Source 1 and Source 2) - and, because of this, that both DRAM and NAND ASPs continued to see quarter over quarter growth. Samsung is the world's largest DRAM memory chip manufacturer by sales and market share, followed by SK Hynix and then Micron. All three companies saw a boost to their earnings in FY 2021 due to strong market conditions in memory chip markets.</p><p><blockquote>美光第四季度终端市场很可能保持强劲--三星和SK海力士预测下半年内存芯片需求强劲（来源 1 和来源 2）--正因为如此，DRAM 和 NAND 平均售价均继续环比增长。按销售额和市场份额计算，三星是全球最大的DRAM存储芯片制造商，其次是SK海力士，然后是美光。由于存储芯片市场的强劲市场状况，这三家公司在 2021 财年的盈利均有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e283b9bc8c553794392443dd078baf1f\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TrendForce, Pulsenews</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TrendForce、Pulsenews</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The DRAM market is still in a severe supply shortage which is why Micron's average selling prices surged 20% in the last quarter. Micron has said that it expects the chip supply crunch is going to drag into 2022. The supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic and resulted when a quicker than expected rebound in chip demand from the auto industry coincided with surging demand for consumer electronics. By some estimates, the supply shortage could last until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>DRAM市场仍然严重供应短缺，这就是为什么美光的平均售价在上一季度飙升了20%。美光表示，预计芯片供应紧缩将持续到 2022 年。供应短缺源于 COVID-19 大流行，其原因是汽车行业芯片需求反弹速度快于预期，同时消费电子产品需求激增。据估计，供应短缺可能会持续到2023年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I don’t expect strengthening DRAM ASP growth for the fourth quarter, but Micron could still see mid-single digit ASP growth in its core DRAM market. For that reason, I estimate that Micron will see an increase in the percentage of revenues generated from DRAM product sales. In FQ3’21, Micron generated 73% of sales from DRAM shipments and this percentage is poised to rise even higher in FQ4’21. Depending on how resilient DRAM product pricing was in Micron’s fourth quarter, the firm could move closer to a 50% gross margin and issue a new, strong forecast for FQ1’22.</p><p><blockquote>我预计第四季度 DRAM 平均售价增长不会加强，但美光在其核心 DRAM 市场的平均售价仍有可能实现中个位数的增长。因此，我估计美光将看到 DRAM 产品销售产生的收入百分比增加。2021 年第三季度，美光 73% 的销售额来自 DRAM 出货量，2021 年第四季度这一比例还会更高。根据美光第四季度 DRAM 产品定价的弹性，该公司可能会接近 50% 的毛利率，并对 22 年第一季度发布新的强劲预测。</blockquote></p><p> Micron’s 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes will likely have seen higher shipment volumes in the fourth quarter. Longer term, I expect Micron’s NAND business to see stronger growth and Micron’s DRAM business to decelerate as the supply shortage in the DRAM market gets resolved and Micron accelerates shipments of its new 176-layer NAND node. Because of Micron’s investments in NAND innovation, Micron could grow the share of NAND-generated revenues from 24% in FQ3’21 to 30-35% over the next 1 or 2 years.</p><p><blockquote>美光的 1-alpha DRAM 和 176 层 NAND 节点在第四季度的出货量可能会更高。从长远来看，随着 DRAM 市场供应短缺的问题得到解决，以及美光加速新的 176 层 NAND 节点的出货，我预计美光的 NAND 业务将实现更强劲的增长，而美光的 DRAM 业务将放缓。由于美光在 NAND 创新方面的投资，美光在 NAND 收入中的份额可能会从 2021 年第三季度的 24% 增长到未来 1 到 2 年内的 30-35%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron is growing rapidly and there is no indication that this growth is slowing down. Micron is set to add one billion dollars to its top line in the fourth quarter alone, and growth, so far, is still strengthening. Estimates call for $37.0B in revenues (33% year over year growth) and $11.20 in EPS (87% year over year growth) for FY 2022, implying that Micron’s growth is undervalued at an earnings multiplier factor around seven. Micron’s estimates are rising and refreshed updates after the release of the FQ4’21 earnings card could create fertile ground for a new upleg.</p><p><blockquote>美光正在快速增长，没有迹象表明这种增长正在放缓。美光计划仅在第四季度就为其营收增加 10 亿美元，而且到目前为止，增长仍在加强。看涨期权预计 2022 财年的收入为 370 亿美元（同比增长 33%），每股收益为 11.20 美元（同比增长 87%），这意味着美光的增长被低估了，市盈率乘数系数约为 7。美光的预估正在上升，在发布 2021 年第四季度收益卡后，美光的更新可能会为新的上涨创造肥沃的土壤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d32e2254ff113771bc630708156433b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to risk, the supply shortage in Micron’s DRAM business fueled DRAM ASP growth this year, but as the market corrects this imbalance, DRAM prices could come down substantially... which is a risk for the stock. Since DRAM sales account for 73% of Micron’s total revenues, falling average DRAM selling prices are poised to weigh on Micron’s commercial performance more than a similar decrease in NAND ASPs would. However, Micron could, potentially, counter some of these DRAM pricing risks by increasing shipments of its newest NAND products. As the company gets ready to scale its NAND business, a decline in DRAM revenues could be counterbalanced by higher NAND revenues. Besides falling DRAM prices, a slowdown in revenue growth and lower gross margins would indicate the end of the current semiconductor cycle and lower capital/stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>转向风险，美光DRAM业务的供应短缺推动了今年DRAM平均售价的增长，但随着市场纠正这种不平衡，DRAM价格可能会大幅下降...这对股票来说是一个风险。由于 DRAM 销售额占美光总收入的 73%，DRAM 平均销售价格的下降将对美光商业业绩造成比 NAND ASP 的类似下降更大的压力。然而，美光有可能通过增加其最新 NAND 产品的出货量来抵消一些 DRAM 定价风险。随着该公司准备扩大其 NAND 业务，DRAM 收入的下降可能会被 NAND 收入的增加所抵消。除了 DRAM 价格下跌外，收入增长放缓和毛利率下降也预示着当前半导体周期的结束和资本/股票回报率的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> For the last fiscal quarter of the year, I expect Micron to table a very strong earnings card with revenues coming in at the top of guidance and gross margins potentially exceeding Micron’s own forecast… which could push shares of Micron into a new upleg.</p><p><blockquote>对于今年的最后一个财政季度，我预计美光将呈现出非常强劲的盈利状况，收入将高于指导值，毛利率可能会超过美光自己的预测.这可能会推动美光股价进入新的上升期。</blockquote></p><p> Due to strength in consumer end markets, ASPs in both DRAM and NAND segments likely grew at a positive rate in Micron’s fourth quarter. Increased bit shipments for 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes and a DRAM supply shortage all help to set Micron up for continual growth in FY 2022.</p><p><blockquote>由于消费终端市场的强劲势头，美光第四季度 DRAM 和 NAND 部门的平均售价都可能实现正增长。1-alpha DRAM 和 176 层 NAND 节点的比特出货量增加以及 DRAM 供应短缺都有助于美光在 2022 财年实现持续增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455688-buy-micron-before-its-too-late\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455688-buy-micron-before-its-too-late","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179511931","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Micron just fell into negative territory for the year.\nBut, Micron’s revenues and gross margins are still in a period of expansion.\nASP growth in DRAM and NAND and increased bit shipments could push Micron’s margin closer to 50% in the fourth quarter.\nMicron’s growth is cheap.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nWhile Micron Technology's (MU) commercial performance is excellent, the firm’s shares have trended downwards since April. But with Micron set to open its books for the fourth quarter at the end of September, the memory company could initiate a new upleg.Micron’s growth has a discount valuation\nThere is a big disconnect between Micron’s business and stock performance. Although the memory firm has enjoyed strengthening revenue growth in its main DRAM business and higher gross margins in FY 2021, shares of Micron have not performed nearly as well. Micron now posts a negative return of 1.8% year to date, but the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings card, set to be put on the table on September 28, 2021, could re-energize the shares.\nData by YCharts\nBased off of Micron’s commercial scorecard for the third quarter, the memory firm is in its best shape in years. Micron’s third-quarter revenues soared 36% year over year to $7.4B. The big driver of Micron’s revenue growth this year has been the DRAM business which benefits from strong demand from end markets and increasing average selling prices/ASPs. Micron’s DRAM business generated revenues of $5.4B in the third quarter, showing an increase of 52% year over year and a 23% top line improvement over the prior quarter. DRAM revenues generated 73% of all revenues for the firm and while bit shipments increased only slightly in FQ3’21, average DRAM selling prices jumped 20% quarter over quarter, strongly supporting Micron’s revenue growth.\nMicron’s second business, the NAND segment, saw relatively moderate revenue growth of 9% year over year to $1.8B in the third quarter and it is not nearly as important as the DRAM business regarding revenue contribution. The NAND segment represents just 24% of Micron’s total revenues, but the percentage is set to increase going forward as the firm accelerates the roll-out of its new 176-layer NAND node which promises better performance and higher read/write speeds compared to previous gen technology.\nMicron’s earnings card for the fourth quarter is just three weeks away, which makes this a good time to discuss what we can expect from Micron’s last fiscal quarter of the year.\nBased off of Micron’s guidance, the firm expects sustained business momentum in the fourth-quarter, with revenues expected to shoot up to $8.2B +/- $200 million and gross margins to grow to 47.0% +/- 1%. If Micron hits the base-case forecast, the memory firm is set to increase its revenues 10% quarter over quarter and expand its gross margin by 4.1 PP. In the high case, Micron could generate $8.4B in fourth-quarter revenues (13% quarter over quarter growth) and gross margins of 48.0%, signaling an increase of 5.1 PP, quarter over quarter.\nSource: Micron\nIt is likely that end markets remained strong in Micron’s fourth quarter - Samsung and SK Hynix forecasted strong memory chip demand for the second half of the year (Source 1 and Source 2) - and, because of this, that both DRAM and NAND ASPs continued to see quarter over quarter growth. Samsung is the world's largest DRAM memory chip manufacturer by sales and market share, followed by SK Hynix and then Micron. All three companies saw a boost to their earnings in FY 2021 due to strong market conditions in memory chip markets.\nSource: TrendForce, Pulsenews\nThe DRAM market is still in a severe supply shortage which is why Micron's average selling prices surged 20% in the last quarter. Micron has said that it expects the chip supply crunch is going to drag into 2022. The supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic and resulted when a quicker than expected rebound in chip demand from the auto industry coincided with surging demand for consumer electronics. By some estimates, the supply shortage could last until 2023.\nI don’t expect strengthening DRAM ASP growth for the fourth quarter, but Micron could still see mid-single digit ASP growth in its core DRAM market. For that reason, I estimate that Micron will see an increase in the percentage of revenues generated from DRAM product sales. In FQ3’21, Micron generated 73% of sales from DRAM shipments and this percentage is poised to rise even higher in FQ4’21. Depending on how resilient DRAM product pricing was in Micron’s fourth quarter, the firm could move closer to a 50% gross margin and issue a new, strong forecast for FQ1’22.\nMicron’s 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes will likely have seen higher shipment volumes in the fourth quarter. Longer term, I expect Micron’s NAND business to see stronger growth and Micron’s DRAM business to decelerate as the supply shortage in the DRAM market gets resolved and Micron accelerates shipments of its new 176-layer NAND node. Because of Micron’s investments in NAND innovation, Micron could grow the share of NAND-generated revenues from 24% in FQ3’21 to 30-35% over the next 1 or 2 years.\nMicron is growing rapidly and there is no indication that this growth is slowing down. Micron is set to add one billion dollars to its top line in the fourth quarter alone, and growth, so far, is still strengthening. Estimates call for $37.0B in revenues (33% year over year growth) and $11.20 in EPS (87% year over year growth) for FY 2022, implying that Micron’s growth is undervalued at an earnings multiplier factor around seven. Micron’s estimates are rising and refreshed updates after the release of the FQ4’21 earnings card could create fertile ground for a new upleg.\nData by YCharts\nTurning to risk, the supply shortage in Micron’s DRAM business fueled DRAM ASP growth this year, but as the market corrects this imbalance, DRAM prices could come down substantially... which is a risk for the stock. Since DRAM sales account for 73% of Micron’s total revenues, falling average DRAM selling prices are poised to weigh on Micron’s commercial performance more than a similar decrease in NAND ASPs would. However, Micron could, potentially, counter some of these DRAM pricing risks by increasing shipments of its newest NAND products. As the company gets ready to scale its NAND business, a decline in DRAM revenues could be counterbalanced by higher NAND revenues. Besides falling DRAM prices, a slowdown in revenue growth and lower gross margins would indicate the end of the current semiconductor cycle and lower capital/stock returns.\nConclusion\nFor the last fiscal quarter of the year, I expect Micron to table a very strong earnings card with revenues coming in at the top of guidance and gross margins potentially exceeding Micron’s own forecast… which could push shares of Micron into a new upleg.\nDue to strength in consumer end markets, ASPs in both DRAM and NAND segments likely grew at a positive rate in Micron’s fourth quarter. Increased bit shipments for 1-alpha DRAM and 176-layer NAND nodes and a DRAM supply shortage all help to set Micron up for continual growth in FY 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/884169199"}
精彩评论