Anh
2021-09-17
Maybe.
Palantir: An Investing Wildcard<blockquote>Palantir：投资通配符</blockquote>
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(PLTR) is perhaps one of the hardest companies to value and believe me I have tried. There are just too many uncertain variables when it comes to this company. What does Palantir even do? How profitable can it be? How much dilution can we expect? And what new and “unexpected” investments will the company make going forward?</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)可能是我尝试过的最难估值的公司之一，相信我。这家公司有太多不确定的变量。Palantir到底是做什么的？能有多大的利润？我们可以预期稀释多少？公司未来将进行哪些新的和“意想不到”的投资？</blockquote></p><p> All of these things make for a very uncertain investment, which, in many ways, isn't justified at today’s price. At the very least, investors should apply an uncertainty discount to Palantir, since their business remains a mystery. Also, there are significant risks beyond dilution that could severely damage the company’s reputation.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都导致了一项非常不确定的投资，从很多方面来说，以今天的价格来看，这是不合理的。至少，投资者应该对Palantir给予不确定性折扣，因为他们的业务仍然是个谜。此外，除了稀释之外，还存在可能严重损害公司声誉的重大风险。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe that while there are many compelling bearish points, a bull thesis can be built around the future growth of Foundry.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信，虽然有许多令人信服的看跌点，但可以围绕代工厂的未来增长构建看涨论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Palantir do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是做什么的？</b></blockquote></p><p> I won’t spend too much time discussing something which I’ve already talked about extensively in this article. The key point I made there is that Palantir relies on having an experienced team of salesmen that can act as consultants to the businesses/institutions that use Gotham/Foundry. Far from saying that the software is useless by itself, the point I’m making is that it is so specialized that it has to be used by experts. It requires deep collaboration between experts from the company using the software and experts from Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>我不会花太多时间来讨论我已经在本文中广泛讨论过的东西。我在那里提出的关键点是，Palantir依赖于拥有一支经验丰富的销售团队，他们可以充当使用Gotham/Foundry的企业/机构的顾问。我并不是说这个软件本身没用，我想说的是它太专业了，必须由专家来使用。它需要使用该软件的公司专家和Palantir专家之间的深度协作。</blockquote></p><p> The question then is just how much does Palantir rely on its employees and how much of the work is being done by its AI/software? In other words, what is the value split? And from a competitive standpoint, how easy would it be for former Palantir employees to create their own AI and compete with Palantir?</p><p><blockquote>接下来的问题是Palantir在多大程度上依赖其员工，有多少工作是由其AI/软件完成的？换句话说，什么是价值分割？从竞争的角度来看，Palantir前员工创建自己的人工智能并与Palantir竞争有多容易？</blockquote></p><p> To properly answer this question, requires a very in-depth understanding of the technology behind Gotham/Foundry and also the specific business practices of the company. Most investors and I include myself here, can only make an educated guess, but ultimately this could go either way.</p><p><blockquote>要正确回答这个问题，需要对Gotham/Foundry背后的技术以及公司的具体业务实践有非常深入的了解。大多数投资者和我，包括我自己，只能做出有根据的猜测，但最终情况可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> From a bullish perspective, one could say that Palantir’s AI is actually learning all the time, and perhaps this makes it much harder to replace than a more traditional SaaS. On the other hand, another favourable point would be to say that, in the future, as data analytics becomes much more prevalent, companies will have more experienced employees who can therefore take some of the “burden” away from Palantir. Of course, there is a thin line between this and Palantir becoming completely replaceable.</p><p><blockquote>从看涨的角度来看，可以说Palantir的人工智能实际上一直在学习，也许这使得它比更传统的SaaS更难被取代。另一方面，另一个有利的观点是，在未来，随着数据分析变得更加普遍，公司将拥有更多经验丰富的员工，因此可以减轻Palantir的一些“负担”。当然，这与Palantir变得完全可替代之间只有一线之隔。</blockquote></p><p> The more bearish perspective would be to argue that Palantir’s software is easily replaceable and not that cutting edge, and that the reliance on highly paid and specialized engineers will render the company unprofitable for years, which brings me to my next point.</p><p><blockquote>更悲观的观点是认为Palantir的软件很容易更换，而不是那么尖端，并且对高薪专业工程师的依赖将使公司多年无法盈利，这就引出了我的下一个观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An uncertain future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem with Palantir is that it is near impossible to achieve a valuation based on cash flow, or even valuation multiples. Palantir’s business is unique and it remains a mystery what kind of profit margins the company will be able to achieve moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的问题在于，几乎不可能实现基于现金流甚至估值倍数的估值。Palantir的业务是独一无二的，该公司未来能够实现什么样的利润率仍然是个谜。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have tried to value Palantir in such a way, by forecasting its profitability to approximate that of its peers in the coming decade. However, this yielded a target price of around $16/share, once dilution was taken into account.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾试图以这种方式对Palantir进行估值，预测其未来十年的盈利能力接近同行。然而，一旦考虑到稀释因素，目标价约为16美元/股。</blockquote></p><p> The only way one could justify an investment in Palantir would be if share dilution is drastically reduced and the company continues to grow at a rate that justifies much higher valuation multiples than the industry.In this article,I calculated what this could look like, reaching a price target of around $116 by 2030, but this uses a P/E ratio of 66, which is double the industry average.</p><p><blockquote>证明投资Palantir合理的唯一方法是股票稀释大幅减少，并且该公司继续以远高于行业估值倍数的速度增长。在本文中，我计算了这可能是什么样子，到2030年达到116美元左右的目标价格，但这使用的市盈率为66，是行业平均水平的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The point I am trying to make is that very different price targets can be obtained under reasonable assumptions. It just really depends on your interpretation of the business and its prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我想说的是，在合理的假设下，可以获得非常不同的价格目标。这真的取决于你对业务及其前景的解读。</blockquote></p><p> Another issue with Palantir is the fact that it is so susceptible to news and marketing. Palantir works with sensitive data, and any hint at the fact that this data might not be safe, as the recent FBI glitch, might spook prospective clients and investors.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个问题是它非常容易受到新闻和营销的影响。Palantir处理敏感数据，任何暗示这些数据可能不安全的事实，例如最近的FBI故障，都可能会吓坏潜在客户和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, as many bulls argue, Palantir’s true addressable market can’t even be quantified yet. So how exactly can we quantify ROI?</p><p><blockquote>最终，正如许多多头所认为的那样，Palantir真正的潜在市场甚至还无法量化。那么，我们如何准确量化投资回报率呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>A “diversified” Balance Sheet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“多元化”的资产负债表</b></blockquote></p><p> To make matters even more complex, Palantir has been making a series of investments that don’t seem to necessarily be based on logic. Last month it was revealed that Palantir invested around $50 million in gold bars. Why exactly? A proper explanation hasn’t been offered. Of course, this investment represents a little over 2% of Palantir’s available cash, but it still makes a clear statement: Palantir is not afraid to do unexpected things.</p><p><blockquote>让事情变得更加复杂的是，Palantir一直在进行一系列似乎不一定基于逻辑的投资。上个月有消息称Palantir投资了约5000万美元购买金条。到底为什么？还没有给出适当的解释。当然，这笔投资只占Palantir可用现金的2%多一点，但它仍然明确声明：Palantir不怕做意想不到的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Most notably though, Palantir has invested in numerous SPACS in the last year, which again just adds to the uncertainty of investing in Palantir. Some of these investments include Sarcos Robotics, Roivant Sciences and Celularity. Of course, there is a common theme underpinning these investments. All the above-mentioned companies use or have committed to using Palantir’s software in the future. More recently, Palantir has partnered with BlackSky, a geospatial intelligence company following a successful partnership with this company.</p><p><blockquote>但最值得注意的是，Palantir去年投资了众多SPAC，这再次增加了投资Palantir的不确定性。其中一些投资包括Sarcos Robotics、Roivant Sciences和Celularity。当然，这些投资有一个共同的主题。上述所有公司都使用或承诺在未来使用Palantir的软件。最近，Palantir与地理空间情报公司BlackSky成功合作。</blockquote></p><p> The question is, are these good investments that the company is making from a position of privilege since it knows these companies well? Or is Palantir simply investing to guarantee future demand? Whichever it is, one thing is clear, the fact that Palantir is so happy to spend the money it has raised at the expense of shareholders might concern some.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，既然公司非常了解这些公司，那么这些投资是出于特权地位而进行的吗？还是Palantir只是为了保证未来的需求而投资？无论是哪一种，有一点是明确的，Palantir如此乐意以牺牲股东利益为代价来花费筹集的资金，这一事实可能会让一些人感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir’s road to success</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的成功之路</b></blockquote></p><p> With all of the uncertainty baked into the Palantir mix, there is only, in my opinion, one argument that can justify a position in Palantir, and that is growth. To justify its price, Palantir has to grow to become much more than it is today. Most significantly, Palantir’s Foundry, which serves commercial enterprises, has to become a staple in the business world.</p><p><blockquote>由于Palantir组合中存在所有不确定性，在我看来，只有一个论据可以证明Palantir的地位是合理的，那就是增长。为了证明其价格合理，Palantir必须发展到比现在更大的水平。最重要的是，Palantir为商业企业提供服务的代工厂必须成为商界的主要产品。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is trying to do just this, and it is getting started by launching Foundry for Builders, which aims to target smaller companies.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir正试图做到这一点，它首先推出了Foundry for Builders，旨在针对较小的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Under Foundry for Builders, Palantir will sell Foundry to start-ups under a subscription model, first to companies connected to Palantir alumni, before expanding the initiative to other early stage companies. Source:Yahoo Finance</p><p><blockquote>根据Foundry for Builders，Palantir将以订阅模式向初创企业出售Foundry，首先向与Palantir校友有联系的公司出售，然后将该计划扩展到其他早期公司。资料来源：雅虎财经</blockquote></p><p> This is where Palantir investors should be looking to determine the future success of the company. If Palantir’s Foundry can prove itself useful to these early-stage companies, perhaps there is a chance that the company can grow into its valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这是Palantir投资者应该关注的决定公司未来成功的地方。如果Palantir的代工厂能够证明自己对这些早期公司有用，也许该公司有机会增长到其估值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The data analytics business will be one of the fastest-growing industries in the coming years. However, this space is incredibly competitive, and there’s a reasonable chance that successful companies today won’t be the winners of tomorrow. The data segment is comparable to the CRM and ERP business back in the 90s. In the coming years, a great majority of companies will be leveraging the power of data. But will they be using Palantir? The answer lies in which of these companies has the best “system” behind them. Palantir has shown a lot of promise, but at this price, I believe the uncertainty is too high to hold on to a significant position.</p><p><blockquote>数据分析业务将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。然而，这个领域竞争异常激烈，今天成功的公司很有可能不会成为明天的赢家。数据部门可与90年代的CRM和ERP业务相媲美。在未来几年，绝大多数公司将利用数据的力量。但他们会使用Palantir吗？答案就在于这些公司中，哪家背后的“体系”最好。Palantir已经显示出很大的前景，但在这个价格下，我认为不确定性太高，无法持有重要头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: An Investing Wildcard<blockquote>Palantir：投资通配符</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: An Investing Wildcard<blockquote>Palantir：投资通配符</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 15:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir offers a great service, but future profitability and growth remain a mystery.</li> <li>Furthermore, an investment in Palantir also means owning a variety of SPACs and even gold bars.</li> <li>With all this uncertainty baked into Palantir's future, I find it hard to value the company and justify owning a significant position.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bb60fe633f55b29d5a1b94157845f3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>GOCMEN/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir提供优质服务，但未来的盈利能力和增长仍然是个谜。</li><li>此外，投资Palantir还意味着拥有各种SPAC甚至金条。</li><li>由于Palantir的未来充满了所有这些不确定性，我发现很难评估该公司的价值并证明拥有重要职位的合理性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>GOCMEN/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文摘要</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is perhaps one of the hardest companies to value and believe me I have tried. There are just too many uncertain variables when it comes to this company. What does Palantir even do? How profitable can it be? How much dilution can we expect? And what new and “unexpected” investments will the company make going forward?</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)可能是我尝试过的最难估值的公司之一，相信我。这家公司有太多不确定的变量。Palantir到底是做什么的？能有多大的利润？我们可以预期稀释多少？公司未来将进行哪些新的和“意想不到”的投资？</blockquote></p><p> All of these things make for a very uncertain investment, which, in many ways, isn't justified at today’s price. At the very least, investors should apply an uncertainty discount to Palantir, since their business remains a mystery. Also, there are significant risks beyond dilution that could severely damage the company’s reputation.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都导致了一项非常不确定的投资，从很多方面来说，以今天的价格来看，这是不合理的。至少，投资者应该对Palantir给予不确定性折扣，因为他们的业务仍然是个谜。此外，除了稀释之外，还存在可能严重损害公司声誉的重大风险。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe that while there are many compelling bearish points, a bull thesis can be built around the future growth of Foundry.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信，虽然有许多令人信服的看跌点，但可以围绕代工厂的未来增长构建看涨论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Palantir do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是做什么的？</b></blockquote></p><p> I won’t spend too much time discussing something which I’ve already talked about extensively in this article. The key point I made there is that Palantir relies on having an experienced team of salesmen that can act as consultants to the businesses/institutions that use Gotham/Foundry. Far from saying that the software is useless by itself, the point I’m making is that it is so specialized that it has to be used by experts. It requires deep collaboration between experts from the company using the software and experts from Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>我不会花太多时间来讨论我已经在本文中广泛讨论过的东西。我在那里提出的关键点是，Palantir依赖于拥有一支经验丰富的销售团队，他们可以充当使用Gotham/Foundry的企业/机构的顾问。我并不是说这个软件本身没用，我想说的是它太专业了，必须由专家来使用。它需要使用该软件的公司专家和Palantir专家之间的深度协作。</blockquote></p><p> The question then is just how much does Palantir rely on its employees and how much of the work is being done by its AI/software? In other words, what is the value split? And from a competitive standpoint, how easy would it be for former Palantir employees to create their own AI and compete with Palantir?</p><p><blockquote>接下来的问题是Palantir在多大程度上依赖其员工，有多少工作是由其AI/软件完成的？换句话说，什么是价值分割？从竞争的角度来看，Palantir前员工创建自己的人工智能并与Palantir竞争有多容易？</blockquote></p><p> To properly answer this question, requires a very in-depth understanding of the technology behind Gotham/Foundry and also the specific business practices of the company. Most investors and I include myself here, can only make an educated guess, but ultimately this could go either way.</p><p><blockquote>要正确回答这个问题，需要对Gotham/Foundry背后的技术以及公司的具体业务实践有非常深入的了解。大多数投资者和我，包括我自己，只能做出有根据的猜测，但最终情况可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> From a bullish perspective, one could say that Palantir’s AI is actually learning all the time, and perhaps this makes it much harder to replace than a more traditional SaaS. On the other hand, another favourable point would be to say that, in the future, as data analytics becomes much more prevalent, companies will have more experienced employees who can therefore take some of the “burden” away from Palantir. Of course, there is a thin line between this and Palantir becoming completely replaceable.</p><p><blockquote>从看涨的角度来看，可以说Palantir的人工智能实际上一直在学习，也许这使得它比更传统的SaaS更难被取代。另一方面，另一个有利的观点是，在未来，随着数据分析变得更加普遍，公司将拥有更多经验丰富的员工，因此可以减轻Palantir的一些“负担”。当然，这与Palantir变得完全可替代之间只有一线之隔。</blockquote></p><p> The more bearish perspective would be to argue that Palantir’s software is easily replaceable and not that cutting edge, and that the reliance on highly paid and specialized engineers will render the company unprofitable for years, which brings me to my next point.</p><p><blockquote>更悲观的观点是认为Palantir的软件很容易更换，而不是那么尖端，并且对高薪专业工程师的依赖将使公司多年无法盈利，这就引出了我的下一个观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An uncertain future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不确定的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem with Palantir is that it is near impossible to achieve a valuation based on cash flow, or even valuation multiples. Palantir’s business is unique and it remains a mystery what kind of profit margins the company will be able to achieve moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的问题在于，几乎不可能实现基于现金流甚至估值倍数的估值。Palantir的业务是独一无二的，该公司未来能够实现什么样的利润率仍然是个谜。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have tried to value Palantir in such a way, by forecasting its profitability to approximate that of its peers in the coming decade. However, this yielded a target price of around $16/share, once dilution was taken into account.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾试图以这种方式对Palantir进行估值，预测其未来十年的盈利能力接近同行。然而，一旦考虑到稀释因素，目标价约为16美元/股。</blockquote></p><p> The only way one could justify an investment in Palantir would be if share dilution is drastically reduced and the company continues to grow at a rate that justifies much higher valuation multiples than the industry.In this article,I calculated what this could look like, reaching a price target of around $116 by 2030, but this uses a P/E ratio of 66, which is double the industry average.</p><p><blockquote>证明投资Palantir合理的唯一方法是股票稀释大幅减少，并且该公司继续以远高于行业估值倍数的速度增长。在本文中，我计算了这可能是什么样子，到2030年达到116美元左右的目标价格，但这使用的市盈率为66，是行业平均水平的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The point I am trying to make is that very different price targets can be obtained under reasonable assumptions. It just really depends on your interpretation of the business and its prospects.</p><p><blockquote>我想说的是，在合理的假设下，可以获得非常不同的价格目标。这真的取决于你对业务及其前景的解读。</blockquote></p><p> Another issue with Palantir is the fact that it is so susceptible to news and marketing. Palantir works with sensitive data, and any hint at the fact that this data might not be safe, as the recent FBI glitch, might spook prospective clients and investors.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的另一个问题是它非常容易受到新闻和营销的影响。Palantir处理敏感数据，任何暗示这些数据可能不安全的事实，例如最近的FBI故障，都可能会吓坏潜在客户和投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, as many bulls argue, Palantir’s true addressable market can’t even be quantified yet. So how exactly can we quantify ROI?</p><p><blockquote>最终，正如许多多头所认为的那样，Palantir真正的潜在市场甚至还无法量化。那么，我们如何准确量化投资回报率呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>A “diversified” Balance Sheet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“多元化”的资产负债表</b></blockquote></p><p> To make matters even more complex, Palantir has been making a series of investments that don’t seem to necessarily be based on logic. Last month it was revealed that Palantir invested around $50 million in gold bars. Why exactly? A proper explanation hasn’t been offered. Of course, this investment represents a little over 2% of Palantir’s available cash, but it still makes a clear statement: Palantir is not afraid to do unexpected things.</p><p><blockquote>让事情变得更加复杂的是，Palantir一直在进行一系列似乎不一定基于逻辑的投资。上个月有消息称Palantir投资了约5000万美元购买金条。到底为什么？还没有给出适当的解释。当然，这笔投资只占Palantir可用现金的2%多一点，但它仍然明确声明：Palantir不怕做意想不到的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Most notably though, Palantir has invested in numerous SPACS in the last year, which again just adds to the uncertainty of investing in Palantir. Some of these investments include Sarcos Robotics, Roivant Sciences and Celularity. Of course, there is a common theme underpinning these investments. All the above-mentioned companies use or have committed to using Palantir’s software in the future. More recently, Palantir has partnered with BlackSky, a geospatial intelligence company following a successful partnership with this company.</p><p><blockquote>但最值得注意的是，Palantir去年投资了众多SPAC，这再次增加了投资Palantir的不确定性。其中一些投资包括Sarcos Robotics、Roivant Sciences和Celularity。当然，这些投资有一个共同的主题。上述所有公司都使用或承诺在未来使用Palantir的软件。最近，Palantir与地理空间情报公司BlackSky成功合作。</blockquote></p><p> The question is, are these good investments that the company is making from a position of privilege since it knows these companies well? Or is Palantir simply investing to guarantee future demand? Whichever it is, one thing is clear, the fact that Palantir is so happy to spend the money it has raised at the expense of shareholders might concern some.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，既然公司非常了解这些公司，那么这些投资是出于特权地位而进行的吗？还是Palantir只是为了保证未来的需求而投资？无论是哪一种，有一点是明确的，Palantir如此乐意以牺牲股东利益为代价来花费筹集的资金，这一事实可能会让一些人感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir’s road to success</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的成功之路</b></blockquote></p><p> With all of the uncertainty baked into the Palantir mix, there is only, in my opinion, one argument that can justify a position in Palantir, and that is growth. To justify its price, Palantir has to grow to become much more than it is today. Most significantly, Palantir’s Foundry, which serves commercial enterprises, has to become a staple in the business world.</p><p><blockquote>由于Palantir组合中存在所有不确定性，在我看来，只有一个论据可以证明Palantir的地位是合理的，那就是增长。为了证明其价格合理，Palantir必须发展到比现在更大的水平。最重要的是，Palantir为商业企业提供服务的代工厂必须成为商界的主要产品。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is trying to do just this, and it is getting started by launching Foundry for Builders, which aims to target smaller companies.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir正试图做到这一点，它首先推出了Foundry for Builders，旨在针对较小的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Under Foundry for Builders, Palantir will sell Foundry to start-ups under a subscription model, first to companies connected to Palantir alumni, before expanding the initiative to other early stage companies. Source:Yahoo Finance</p><p><blockquote>根据Foundry for Builders，Palantir将以订阅模式向初创企业出售Foundry，首先向与Palantir校友有联系的公司出售，然后将该计划扩展到其他早期公司。资料来源：雅虎财经</blockquote></p><p> This is where Palantir investors should be looking to determine the future success of the company. If Palantir’s Foundry can prove itself useful to these early-stage companies, perhaps there is a chance that the company can grow into its valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这是Palantir投资者应该关注的决定公司未来成功的地方。如果Palantir的代工厂能够证明自己对这些早期公司有用，也许该公司有机会增长到其估值水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> The data analytics business will be one of the fastest-growing industries in the coming years. However, this space is incredibly competitive, and there’s a reasonable chance that successful companies today won’t be the winners of tomorrow. The data segment is comparable to the CRM and ERP business back in the 90s. In the coming years, a great majority of companies will be leveraging the power of data. But will they be using Palantir? The answer lies in which of these companies has the best “system” behind them. Palantir has shown a lot of promise, but at this price, I believe the uncertainty is too high to hold on to a significant position.</p><p><blockquote>数据分析业务将是未来几年增长最快的行业之一。然而，这个领域竞争异常激烈，今天成功的公司很有可能不会成为明天的赢家。数据部门可与90年代的CRM和ERP业务相媲美。在未来几年，绝大多数公司将利用数据的力量。但他们会使用Palantir吗？答案就在于这些公司中，哪家背后的“体系”最好。Palantir已经显示出很大的前景，但在这个价格下，我认为不确定性太高，无法持有重要头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455718-palantir-an-investing-wildcard\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455718-palantir-an-investing-wildcard","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183212407","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir offers a great service, but future profitability and growth remain a mystery.\nFurthermore, an investment in Palantir also means owning a variety of SPACs and even gold bars.\nWith all this uncertainty baked into Palantir's future, I find it hard to value the company and justify owning a significant position.\n\nGOCMEN/iStock via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nPalantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is perhaps one of the hardest companies to value and believe me I have tried. There are just too many uncertain variables when it comes to this company. What does Palantir even do? How profitable can it be? How much dilution can we expect? And what new and “unexpected” investments will the company make going forward?\nAll of these things make for a very uncertain investment, which, in many ways, isn't justified at today’s price. At the very least, investors should apply an uncertainty discount to Palantir, since their business remains a mystery. Also, there are significant risks beyond dilution that could severely damage the company’s reputation.\nUltimately, I believe that while there are many compelling bearish points, a bull thesis can be built around the future growth of Foundry.\nWhat does Palantir do?\nI won’t spend too much time discussing something which I’ve already talked about extensively in this article. The key point I made there is that Palantir relies on having an experienced team of salesmen that can act as consultants to the businesses/institutions that use Gotham/Foundry. Far from saying that the software is useless by itself, the point I’m making is that it is so specialized that it has to be used by experts. It requires deep collaboration between experts from the company using the software and experts from Palantir.\nThe question then is just how much does Palantir rely on its employees and how much of the work is being done by its AI/software? In other words, what is the value split? And from a competitive standpoint, how easy would it be for former Palantir employees to create their own AI and compete with Palantir?\nTo properly answer this question, requires a very in-depth understanding of the technology behind Gotham/Foundry and also the specific business practices of the company. Most investors and I include myself here, can only make an educated guess, but ultimately this could go either way.\nFrom a bullish perspective, one could say that Palantir’s AI is actually learning all the time, and perhaps this makes it much harder to replace than a more traditional SaaS. On the other hand, another favourable point would be to say that, in the future, as data analytics becomes much more prevalent, companies will have more experienced employees who can therefore take some of the “burden” away from Palantir. Of course, there is a thin line between this and Palantir becoming completely replaceable.\nThe more bearish perspective would be to argue that Palantir’s software is easily replaceable and not that cutting edge, and that the reliance on highly paid and specialized engineers will render the company unprofitable for years, which brings me to my next point.\nAn uncertain future\nThe problem with Palantir is that it is near impossible to achieve a valuation based on cash flow, or even valuation multiples. Palantir’s business is unique and it remains a mystery what kind of profit margins the company will be able to achieve moving forward.\nIn the past, I have tried to value Palantir in such a way, by forecasting its profitability to approximate that of its peers in the coming decade. However, this yielded a target price of around $16/share, once dilution was taken into account.\nThe only way one could justify an investment in Palantir would be if share dilution is drastically reduced and the company continues to grow at a rate that justifies much higher valuation multiples than the industry.In this article,I calculated what this could look like, reaching a price target of around $116 by 2030, but this uses a P/E ratio of 66, which is double the industry average.\nThe point I am trying to make is that very different price targets can be obtained under reasonable assumptions. It just really depends on your interpretation of the business and its prospects.\nAnother issue with Palantir is the fact that it is so susceptible to news and marketing. Palantir works with sensitive data, and any hint at the fact that this data might not be safe, as the recent FBI glitch, might spook prospective clients and investors.\nUltimately, as many bulls argue, Palantir’s true addressable market can’t even be quantified yet. So how exactly can we quantify ROI?\nA “diversified” Balance Sheet\nTo make matters even more complex, Palantir has been making a series of investments that don’t seem to necessarily be based on logic. Last month it was revealed that Palantir invested around $50 million in gold bars. Why exactly? A proper explanation hasn’t been offered. Of course, this investment represents a little over 2% of Palantir’s available cash, but it still makes a clear statement: Palantir is not afraid to do unexpected things.\nMost notably though, Palantir has invested in numerous SPACS in the last year, which again just adds to the uncertainty of investing in Palantir. Some of these investments include Sarcos Robotics, Roivant Sciences and Celularity. Of course, there is a common theme underpinning these investments. All the above-mentioned companies use or have committed to using Palantir’s software in the future. More recently, Palantir has partnered with BlackSky, a geospatial intelligence company following a successful partnership with this company.\nThe question is, are these good investments that the company is making from a position of privilege since it knows these companies well? Or is Palantir simply investing to guarantee future demand? Whichever it is, one thing is clear, the fact that Palantir is so happy to spend the money it has raised at the expense of shareholders might concern some.\nPalantir’s road to success\nWith all of the uncertainty baked into the Palantir mix, there is only, in my opinion, one argument that can justify a position in Palantir, and that is growth. To justify its price, Palantir has to grow to become much more than it is today. Most significantly, Palantir’s Foundry, which serves commercial enterprises, has to become a staple in the business world.\nPalantir is trying to do just this, and it is getting started by launching Foundry for Builders, which aims to target smaller companies.\n\n Under Foundry for Builders, Palantir will sell Foundry to start-ups under a subscription model, first to companies connected to Palantir alumni, before expanding the initiative to other early stage companies.\n\nSource:Yahoo Finance\nThis is where Palantir investors should be looking to determine the future success of the company. If Palantir’s Foundry can prove itself useful to these early-stage companies, perhaps there is a chance that the company can grow into its valuation.\nTakeaway\nThe data analytics business will be one of the fastest-growing industries in the coming years. However, this space is incredibly competitive, and there’s a reasonable chance that successful companies today won’t be the winners of tomorrow. The data segment is comparable to the CRM and ERP business back in the 90s. In the coming years, a great majority of companies will be leveraging the power of data. But will they be using Palantir? The answer lies in which of these companies has the best “system” behind them. Palantir has shown a lot of promise, but at this price, I believe the uncertainty is too high to hold on to a significant position.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/884138371"}
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