OldMan69
2021-09-10
To the moon!
Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值上涨潜力巨大</blockquote>
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The company has two mode","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.</li> <li>The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.</li> <li>XPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.</li> <li>I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.</li> <li>I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f094bec5a7e731c30721c91e342c6b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型，一款是运动型多用途车G3，另一款是名为P7的智能轿车。</li><li>该公司的汽车配备了XPILOT 2.5，但很快将纳入XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0。这项新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。</li><li>XPEV很可能在未来九年内实现近30%-25%的销售增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。</li><li>我设计了一个DCF模型，包括2026-2030年FCF/销售额8%-7%，销售额增长30%-28%。隐含股价等于114-157美元。</li><li>我使用6.7%的WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性将显着下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔值。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对股票的需求并降低波动性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>随着数十亿美元投资于新的XPILOT技术，当管理层推出新技术时，小鹏汽车(XPEV)可能会给驾驶员带来惊喜。该公司还拥有大量现金用于投资中国和国际营销。考虑到这一点，并假设XPEV在未来看起来会像特斯拉(TSLA)，我设计了一个DCF模型。从2026年到2030年，我使用的FCF/销售额为8-7%，销售额增长率为30-28%。该公司的隐含估值接近114-157美元。公司估值有很大的上行潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务：新XPILOT技术和国际扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7:</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型：运动型多用途车G3和名为P 7的智能轿车：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acabdc3dd5b0d0c462eba459a9e1e1bb\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company’s Website</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司网站</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的汽车配备了XPILOT 2.5，但很快将纳入XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0。这项新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。在我看来，当投资者了解到XPEV即将发布的新技术时，对该股的需求将会增加：</blockquote></p><p> The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube In my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in Europe and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:</p><p><blockquote>新架构包括32个感知传感器（包括2个激光雷达单元、12个超声波传感器、5个毫米波雷达和13个高分辨率摄像头）和1个高精度定位单元（GNSS+IMU），集成到360°双感知融合中，为感知传感器提供足够的冗余，以应对具有挑战性和复杂的路况。来源：YouTube在我看来，该股的另一个催化剂是该公司的国际扩张。我认为投资者没有考虑到XPEV最近出售股权的净收益中有近5%被用于扩大公司在欧洲和其他地方的业务。如果考虑到中国以外的市场机会，XPEV未来的自由现金流会爆炸式增长：</blockquote></p><p> Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus <b>Financial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash</b></p><p><blockquote>所得款项净额约5%（约689.0百万港元）预期将用于策略性地建立及扩大我们于国际市场的业务，首先是若干欧洲市场。资料来源：招股章程<b>财务状况：大量现金</b></blockquote></p><p> In June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:</p><p><blockquote>2021年6月，XPEV报告总资产为70亿美元，其中现金和短期存款43亿美元，负债价值20亿美元。有了这些财务数据，我相信公司有财力投资于研发和营销工作。该公司拥有促进销售增长所需的一切：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e2abf76887014f48a87c9c7a7029035\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，XPEV报告的长期借款为2.47亿美元。该公司的长期借款似乎并不令人担忧。这还不是全部。XPEV报告了大量递延收入，这意味着客户需要提前付款才能获得该公司的产品。这意味着两件事。首先，该公司可能不必与银行家交谈，因为客户为汽车的开发提供资金。其次，XPEV的产品需求巨大：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397f5fd8052072ff7a3b46566ef81f21\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Base Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本情况</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，如果公司继续提供创新技术，销售增长将保持较高水平。在基本情况下，我假设该公司将推出XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0来支持下一代自动驾驶硬件。此外，我还假设该公司将成功重新设计其动力总成和E/E架构，以提供成本效率，并与蔚来（蔚来）或特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的汽车竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c3ebcbc58030fe748c5eada31f3b2c\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"763\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPILOT - YouTube</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Xpilot-YouTube</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.</p><p><blockquote>我还希望XPEV能够增加软件和内容产品的货币化，就像该公司通过XPILOT工具货币化所做的那样。此外，如果该公司成功与第三方应用程序开发商合作，我预计XPEV会找到更多的盈利模式。</blockquote></p><p> In my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，根据这些假设，XPEV将能够在未来九年内实现接近30%-25%的销量增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。这家美国公司从2012年到2014年的销售额增长了240%以上，然后从2016年到2021年增长了29-33%左右：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1c352dfb330231a94c71f9fcdb2ff9\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:</p><p><blockquote>我还研究了特斯拉的盈利能力，以了解XPEV何时可以开始提供运营现金流。特斯拉花了近14-16年的时间才从运营中提供了积极且可观的现金流。XPEV很可能会更快，因为它可能会从蔚来和特斯拉的车辆中获得某些战略信息。因此，我假设公司成立14-16年后，XPEV的现金流将为正：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268a9c3e5020079c07fc78fdf0bb2948\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:</p><p><blockquote>我的现金流数据如下表所示。我预计2021年至2027年运营现金流为负，2028年至2030年将逐渐增加。2030年，我假设销售额增长25%，资本支出/销售额增长4%，自由现金流/销售额增长6%。特斯拉的自由现金流/销售额目前等于8%。然而，我使用了低于特斯拉的自由现金流利润率，因为我预计电动汽车行业会有许多新进入者：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e70c302478a243eabc9687737d71948\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I assumed a WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:</p><p><blockquote>我假设WACC为7.26%，与中国其他汽车制造商的WACC非常接近。我没有变得非常保守或非常乐观。我使用的是市场对XPEV风险的看法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea2f16d5b605e6c3a231c197b1e9a8\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：小鹏汽车WACC%|XPEV-GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:</p><p><blockquote>2031年自由现金流为180亿元人民币，退出倍数为67倍，净债务接近-270亿元人民币，股数为7.96亿股，隐含股价等于796元人民币。如果我们使用美元，公允价值接近114美元。交易员目前以39美元的大幅折扣购买股票。出于某种原因，考虑到最近的价格动态，我想说投资者正在以36-40美元的价格积累股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5237646731308cc5239ea12ad336e3e3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a625f99f6ab5e57589f74eee5d0738\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Optimistic Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乐观情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Under my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.</p><p><blockquote>在我乐观的情况下，XPEV将大幅扩大其在城市实体店的业务，因此该公司的电动汽车将会找到需求。此外，公司将加大营销力度，小鹏品牌超级充电站网络将大幅扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Besides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在这种情况下，该公司将能够在中国境外销售。2020年，该公司在挪威交付了首批G3。如果XPEV能卖遍欧洲，相信销量增长还会保持高位：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus With these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:</p><p><blockquote>我们计划继续扩展到其他国际市场，首先是某些欧洲市场。我们旨在建立及提升我们的海外销售及服务能力，并调整我们软件系统的用户界面，以优化我们为海外市场消费者提供的产品及服务。资料来源：招股书有了这些新的假设，我相信公司2026年至2030年的销售额增长将接近30-28%。我还假设2028年至2030年CFO/销售额为5%-11%，FCF/销售额为8%-7%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c9943f75ddd7cff700777aa946436fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Under this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在该案例情景下，公司的销售额增长幅度大于基准案例情景下的销售额增长幅度。自由现金流利润率和首席财务官利润率也更为重要。因此，我使用了87倍的退出倍数，这比基本情况下的要大。</blockquote></p><p> I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.</p><p><blockquote>我使用6.7%的WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性将显着下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔值。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对股票的需求并降低波动性。把所有的东西放在一起，我得到了157美元的股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ffa20f2e1a2f66bbad67c59ef709f7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>R&D Activities May Not Be Successful</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发活动未必成功</b></blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，XPEV的主要战略来自于对研发的投资。该公司在自动驾驶、动力总成和E/E架构方面的创新将很可能决定该公司未来的成功。因此，如果公司的研发努力未能与竞争对手相比，公司的声誉可能会受到损害。因此，我预计收入会下降。在这种情况下，对自由现金流的预期会下降，这可能会导致公司估值下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Autonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自动驾驶技术和事故</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV很可能会像特斯拉一样遭受与自动驾驶系统相关的事故。这些事件可能会对公众认知产生负面影响，并很可能引发政府审查和进一步监管。中国、欧洲或美国的法规可能会损害公司的收入线或降低XPEV的自由现金流利润率。但这还不是全部。XPEV还可能取消客户已经下的订单，这很可能会导致自由现金流预期下降。因此，公司的公允价值可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV正在投入大量资金进行研发，以提供新的XPILOT技术和E/E架构。该公司还拥有大量现金来资助中国和中国以外的营销工作。我相信该公司的财务数字将接近特斯拉。考虑到这一点，我设计了一个DCF模型，包括2026年至2030年FCF/销售额增长8-7%，销售额增长30-28%。隐含股价等于114-157美元，高于公司当前股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Significant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值上涨潜力巨大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSignificant Upside Potential In XPeng's Valuation<blockquote>小鹏汽车估值上涨潜力巨大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 11:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.</li> <li>The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.</li> <li>XPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.</li> <li>I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.</li> <li>I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f094bec5a7e731c30721c91e342c6b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型，一款是运动型多用途车G3，另一款是名为P7的智能轿车。</li><li>该公司的汽车配备了XPILOT 2.5，但很快将纳入XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0。这项新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。</li><li>XPEV很可能在未来九年内实现近30%-25%的销售增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。</li><li>我设计了一个DCF模型，包括2026-2030年FCF/销售额8%-7%，销售额增长30%-28%。隐含股价等于114-157美元。</li><li>我使用6.7%的WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性将显着下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔值。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对股票的需求并降低波动性。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SimonSkafar/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>随着数十亿美元投资于新的XPILOT技术，当管理层推出新技术时，小鹏汽车(XPEV)可能会给驾驶员带来惊喜。该公司还拥有大量现金用于投资中国和国际营销。考虑到这一点，并假设XPEV在未来看起来会像特斯拉(TSLA)，我设计了一个DCF模型。从2026年到2030年，我使用的FCF/销售额为8-7%，销售额增长率为30-28%。该公司的隐含估值接近114-157美元。公司估值有很大的上行潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务：新XPILOT技术和国际扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7:</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车成立于2014年，是一家中国电动汽车制造商。该公司有两款车型：运动型多用途车G3和名为P 7的智能轿车：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acabdc3dd5b0d0c462eba459a9e1e1bb\" tg-width=\"1238\" tg-height=\"828\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company’s Website</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司网站</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的汽车配备了XPILOT 2.5，但很快将纳入XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0。这项新技术将包括更多的感知传感器，包括雷达和高分辨率摄像头。在我看来，当投资者了解到XPEV即将发布的新技术时，对该股的需求将会增加：</blockquote></p><p> The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube In my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in Europe and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:</p><p><blockquote>新架构包括32个感知传感器（包括2个激光雷达单元、12个超声波传感器、5个毫米波雷达和13个高分辨率摄像头）和1个高精度定位单元（GNSS+IMU），集成到360°双感知融合中，为感知传感器提供足够的冗余，以应对具有挑战性和复杂的路况。来源：YouTube在我看来，该股的另一个催化剂是该公司的国际扩张。我认为投资者没有考虑到XPEV最近出售股权的净收益中有近5%被用于扩大公司在欧洲和其他地方的业务。如果考虑到中国以外的市场机会，XPEV未来的自由现金流会爆炸式增长：</blockquote></p><p> Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus <b>Financial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash</b></p><p><blockquote>所得款项净额约5%（约689.0百万港元）预期将用于策略性地建立及扩大我们于国际市场的业务，首先是若干欧洲市场。资料来源：招股章程<b>财务状况：大量现金</b></blockquote></p><p> In June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:</p><p><blockquote>2021年6月，XPEV报告总资产为70亿美元，其中现金和短期存款43亿美元，负债价值20亿美元。有了这些财务数据，我相信公司有财力投资于研发和营销工作。该公司拥有促进销售增长所需的一切：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e2abf76887014f48a87c9c7a7029035\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，XPEV报告的长期借款为2.47亿美元。该公司的长期借款似乎并不令人担忧。这还不是全部。XPEV报告了大量递延收入，这意味着客户需要提前付款才能获得该公司的产品。这意味着两件事。首先，该公司可能不必与银行家交谈，因为客户为汽车的开发提供资金。其次，XPEV的产品需求巨大：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397f5fd8052072ff7a3b46566ef81f21\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"545\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 10-Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：10-Q</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Base Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本情况</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，如果公司继续提供创新技术，销售增长将保持较高水平。在基本情况下，我假设该公司将推出XPILOT 3.5和XPILOT 4.0来支持下一代自动驾驶硬件。此外，我还假设该公司将成功重新设计其动力总成和E/E架构，以提供成本效率，并与蔚来（蔚来）或特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的汽车竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c3ebcbc58030fe748c5eada31f3b2c\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"763\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPILOT - YouTube</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Xpilot-YouTube</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.</p><p><blockquote>我还希望XPEV能够增加软件和内容产品的货币化，就像该公司通过XPILOT工具货币化所做的那样。此外，如果该公司成功与第三方应用程序开发商合作，我预计XPEV会找到更多的盈利模式。</blockquote></p><p> In my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，根据这些假设，XPEV将能够在未来九年内实现接近30%-25%的销量增长。请注意，我的数据与特斯拉的销售增长相差不远。这家美国公司从2012年到2014年的销售额增长了240%以上，然后从2016年到2021年增长了29-33%左右：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b1c352dfb330231a94c71f9fcdb2ff9\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:</p><p><blockquote>我还研究了特斯拉的盈利能力，以了解XPEV何时可以开始提供运营现金流。特斯拉花了近14-16年的时间才从运营中提供了积极且可观的现金流。XPEV很可能会更快，因为它可能会从蔚来和特斯拉的车辆中获得某些战略信息。因此，我假设公司成立14-16年后，XPEV的现金流将为正：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268a9c3e5020079c07fc78fdf0bb2948\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"537\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> My cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:</p><p><blockquote>我的现金流数据如下表所示。我预计2021年至2027年运营现金流为负，2028年至2030年将逐渐增加。2030年，我假设销售额增长25%，资本支出/销售额增长4%，自由现金流/销售额增长6%。特斯拉的自由现金流/销售额目前等于8%。然而，我使用了低于特斯拉的自由现金流利润率，因为我预计电动汽车行业会有许多新进入者：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e70c302478a243eabc9687737d71948\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I assumed a WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:</p><p><blockquote>我假设WACC为7.26%，与中国其他汽车制造商的WACC非常接近。我没有变得非常保守或非常乐观。我使用的是市场对XPEV风险的看法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea2f16d5b605e6c3a231c197b1e9a8\" tg-width=\"494\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：小鹏汽车WACC%|XPEV-GuruFocus.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:</p><p><blockquote>2031年自由现金流为180亿元人民币，退出倍数为67倍，净债务接近-270亿元人民币，股数为7.96亿股，隐含股价等于796元人民币。如果我们使用美元，公允价值接近114美元。交易员目前以39美元的大幅折扣购买股票。出于某种原因，考虑到最近的价格动态，我想说投资者正在以36-40美元的价格积累股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5237646731308cc5239ea12ad336e3e3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a625f99f6ab5e57589f74eee5d0738\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Optimistic Case Scenario</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乐观情况</b></blockquote></p><p> Under my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.</p><p><blockquote>在我乐观的情况下，XPEV将大幅扩大其在城市实体店的业务，因此该公司的电动汽车将会找到需求。此外，公司将加大营销力度，小鹏品牌超级充电站网络将大幅扩张。</blockquote></p><p> Besides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在这种情况下，该公司将能够在中国境外销售。2020年，该公司在挪威交付了首批G3。如果XPEV能卖遍欧洲，相信销量增长还会保持高位：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus With these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:</p><p><blockquote>我们计划继续扩展到其他国际市场，首先是某些欧洲市场。我们旨在建立及提升我们的海外销售及服务能力，并调整我们软件系统的用户界面，以优化我们为海外市场消费者提供的产品及服务。资料来源：招股书有了这些新的假设，我相信公司2026年至2030年的销售额增长将接近30-28%。我还假设2028年至2030年CFO/销售额为5%-11%，FCF/销售额为8%-7%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c9943f75ddd7cff700777aa946436fa\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"271\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Under this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>在该案例情景下，公司的销售额增长幅度大于基准案例情景下的销售额增长幅度。自由现金流利润率和首席财务官利润率也更为重要。因此，我使用了87倍的退出倍数，这比基本情况下的要大。</blockquote></p><p> I used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.</p><p><blockquote>我使用6.7%的WACC，因为我预计公司的波动性将显着下降，这可能会降低公司的贝塔值。在我看来，更多的销售增长和更好的利润率很可能会增加对股票的需求并降低波动性。把所有的东西放在一起，我得到了157美元的股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ffa20f2e1a2f66bbad67c59ef709f7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"352\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：我的数据基于特斯拉的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>R&D Activities May Not Be Successful</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发活动未必成功</b></blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，XPEV的主要战略来自于对研发的投资。该公司在自动驾驶、动力总成和E/E架构方面的创新将很可能决定该公司未来的成功。因此，如果公司的研发努力未能与竞争对手相比，公司的声誉可能会受到损害。因此，我预计收入会下降。在这种情况下，对自由现金流的预期会下降，这可能会导致公司估值下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Autonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自动驾驶技术和事故</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV很可能会像特斯拉一样遭受与自动驾驶系统相关的事故。这些事件可能会对公众认知产生负面影响，并很可能引发政府审查和进一步监管。中国、欧洲或美国的法规可能会损害公司的收入线或降低XPEV的自由现金流利润率。但这还不是全部。XPEV还可能取消客户已经下的订单，这很可能会导致自由现金流预期下降。因此，公司的公允价值可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> XPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>XPEV正在投入大量资金进行研发，以提供新的XPILOT技术和E/E架构。该公司还拥有大量现金来资助中国和中国以外的营销工作。我相信该公司的财务数字将接近特斯拉。考虑到这一点，我设计了一个DCF模型，包括2026年至2030年FCF/销售额增长8-7%，销售额增长30-28%。隐含股价等于114-157美元，高于公司当前股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454414-xpeng-stock-significant-upside-potential-in-its-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109335825","content_text":"Summary\n\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7.\nThe company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras.\nXPEV will most likely deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla.\nI designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8%-7% and sales growth of 30%-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-$157.\nI used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility.\n\nSimonSkafar/E+ via Getty Images\nWith billions invested in new XPILOT technologies, XPeng (XPEV) could surprise drivers when the management delivers the new technology. The company also has a significant amount of cash to invest in marketing in China and internationally. With this in mind and assuming that XPEV will look like Tesla (TSLA) in the future, I designed a DCF model. I used FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The company’s implied valuation is close to $114-157. There is significant upside potential in the company’s valuation.\nBusiness: New XPILOT Technologies And International Expansion\nFounded in 2014, XPeng is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer. The company has two models, the G3, which is a sport utility vehicle, and a smart sedan called P7:\nSource: Company’s Website\nThe company’s cars come with XPILOT 2.5, but will soon incorporate XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0. The new technology will include many more perception sensors including radars and high-resolution cameras. In my opinion, when investors learn about the new technologies that XPEV is about to release, the demand for the stock will increase:\n\n The new architecture comprises 32 perception sensors (including 2 LiDAR units, 12 ultrasonic sensors, 5 millimeter-wave radars, and 13 high-resolution cameras) and 1 high-precision positioning unit (GNSS + IMU), integrated into 360° dual-perception fusion to provide sufficient redundancy across the perception sensors to handle challenging and complex road conditions. Source: YouTube\n\nIn my opinion, the other catalyst for the stock is the company’s international expansion. I don’t think investors are taking into account that close to 5% of XPEV’s net proceeds from recent sales of equity are being used for expanding the company’s presence in Europe and elsewhere. If you factor in the market opportunity outside China, XPEV’s future free cash flow explodes up:\n\n Approximately 5% (approximately HK$689.0 million) of the net proceeds is expected to be used for strategically building and expanding our presence in international markets, starting with certain European markets. Source:Prospectus\n\nFinancial Situation: Significant Amount Of Cash\nIn June 2021, XPEV reported $7 billion in total assets, including $4.3 billion in cash and short-term deposits, and liabilities worth $2 billion. With these financial figures, I believe that the company has the financial power to invest in research and developments as well as marketing efforts. The company has everything needed to enhance sales growth:\nSource: 10-Q\nAs of June 30, 2021, XPEV reported $247 million in long-term borrowings. The company’s long-term borrowings don’t seem worrying. That’s not all. XPEV reports a significant amount of deferred revenue, which means that clients pay in advance to have the company’s products. It means two things. First, the company may not have to talk to bankers because clients finance the development of cars. Second, there is a significant demand for XPEV’s products:\nSource: 10-Q\nBase Case Scenario\nIn my view, if the company continues to offer innovative technologies, sales growth will remain elevated. In the base case scenario, I assumed that the company will introduce its XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 4.0 to support the next-generation autonomous driving hardware. Besides, I also assumed that the company will successfully redesign its powertrain and E/E architecture to offer cost efficiency, and compete with vehicles of NIO (NIO) or Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).\nSource: XPILOT - YouTube\nI would also expect XPEV to increase the monetization of software and content offerings like the company has done in monetizing its XPILOT tools. Besides, if the company successfully collaborates with third-party app developers, I would be expecting XPEV to find many more monetization models.\nIn my view, with these assumptions, XPEV will be able to deliver sales growth of close to 30%-25% in the next nine years. Notice that my numbers are not far from the sales growth delivered by Tesla. The American company delivered more than 240% sales growth from 2012 to 2014, and then around 29-33% from 2016 to 2021:\nSource: YCharts\nI also looked at the profitability of Tesla to understand when XPEV could start delivering cash flow from operations. Tesla took close to 14-16 years to offer positive and significant cash flow from operations. XPEV will most likely be faster because it may obtain certain strategic information from the vehicles of NIO and Tesla. With that, I will be assuming that after 14-16 years of the creation of the company, XPEV’s cash flow will be positive:\nSource: YCharts\nMy cash flow figures are given in the table below. I expect negative cash flow from operations from 2021 to 2027 and a gradual increase from 2028 to 2030. In 2030, I assumed sales growth of 25%, Capex/sales of 4%, and FCF/Sales of 6%. Tesla’s FCF/Sales is currently equal to 8%. However, I used a free cash flow margin lower than that of Tesla because I expect many new entrants in the electric vehicle industry:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nI assumed a WACC of 7.26%, which is pretty much close to that of other vehicle manufacturers in China. I am not becoming very conservative or very optimistic. I am using what the market thinks about the XPEV’s risks:\nSource: XPeng WACC % | XPEV - GuruFocus.com\nWith a 2031 FCF of CNY18 billion, an exit multiple of 67x, net debt close to -CNY27 billion, and a share count of 796 million, the implied share price is equal to CNY796. If we use dollars, the fair value is close to $114. Traders are currently buying shares at a deep discount, at $39. For some reason, given the most recent price dynamics, I would say that investors are accumulating shares at $36-40:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOptimistic Case Scenario\nUnder my optimistic case scenario, XPEV would expand significantly its presence in physical stores in cities, so the company’s EVs will find demand. Besides, the company would increase its marketing efforts, and the network of XPeng-branded supercharging stations would substantially expand.\nBesides, under this case scenario, the company will be able to sell outside China. In 2020, the company delivered the first batch of the G3 in Norway. If XPEV can sell all over Europe, I believe that sales growth will remain high:\n\n We plan to continue to expand into other international markets, starting with certain European markets. We aim to build and enhance our overseas sales and services capability, and to adapt the user interfaces of our software systems to optimize our products and services for consumers in overseas markets. Source:Prospectus\n\nWith these new assumptions, I believe that the company’s sales growth would be close to 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. I also assumed CFO/Sales of 5%-11% from 2028 to 2030 and FCF/Sales of 8%-7%:\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nUnder this case scenario, the company’s sales growth is larger than that in the base case scenario. Both the free cash flow margin and the CFO margin are also more significant. Hence, I used an exit multiple of 87x, which is larger than that in the base case scenario.\nI used a WACC of 6.7% because I am expecting a significant decrease in the company’s volatility, which may diminish the company’s beta. In my view, more sales growth and better margins will most likely increase the demand for the stock and decrease volatility. Putting everything together, I obtained a share price of $157.\nSource: My Figures Based On Tesla’s Figures\nR&D Activities May Not Be Successful\nIn my opinion, XPEV’s main strategy comes from investments in research and development. The company’s innovations in autonomous driving, powertrain, and E/E architecture will most likely define the company’s future success. With that, if the company’s R&D efforts fail against that of competitors, the company’s reputation may be damaged. As a result, I would be expecting a decline in the revenue line. In this case scenario, the expectations for free cash flow will decline, which may lead to a reduction in the company’s valuation.\nAutonomous Driving Technologies And Accidents\nXPEV will most likely suffer, like Tesla, from accidents associated with autonomous driving systems. These events may negatively affect public perception, and will most likely trigger government scrutiny and further regulation. Regulations in China, Europe, or the United States could damage the company’s revenue line or diminish XPEV’s free cash flow margins. But that’s not all. XPEV may also cancel the orders already placed by the customers, which will most likely lead to a decrease in the free cash flow expectations. As a result, the company’s fair value could decline.\nConclusion\nXPEV is investing a significant amount of dollars in research and development to offer its new XPILOT technologies and E/E architecture. The company also has a significant amount of cash to finance marketing efforts in China and outside China. I believe that the company’s financial figures will be close to that of Tesla. With this in mind, I designed a DCF model including FCF/Sales of 8-7% and sales growth of 30-28% from 2026 to 2030. The implied stock price is equal to $114-157, which stands above the company’s current stock price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/883262336"}
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