Lest take and run along._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-09-09

Lest take and run along.

The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts<blockquote>华尔街六大银行发布市场红色警报</blockquote>

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Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.<blockquote>这些是华尔街一些最大的银行，在过去几天里对美国股市发出了“红色警报”警告，一些银行预计即将出现10-20%的调整，而另一些银行预计未来几个月将缓慢下跌。下面我们总结了他们令人惊讶的悲观观点的亮点。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley<blockquote>摩根士丹利</blockquote> We start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available forprofessional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a \"mid cycle transition\", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market \"generals\" - getting hit, \"which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500\" through October.<blockquote>我们从摩根士丹利开始，该公司昨天发布了最新的全球宏观论坛幻灯片（可供专业订阅者使用），该银行首席跨资产策略师安德鲁·希茨 (Andrew Sheets) 警告说，股票市场内部人士继续遵循“中期转型”，这一过程通常以优质股票（如 FAAMGs 市场“将军”）受到打击而告终，“这对高质量的标普500构成了巨大的风险“直到十月。</blockquote> Sheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:<blockquote>希茨通过披露他认为将定义年底市场的五个主题来阐述他的悲观观点。这些是：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Policy divergence and the start of tapering:MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.<blockquote><ol><li>政策分歧和缩减规模的开始：微软预计美联储将在9月份的会议上表明其缩减规模的意图。随着央行政策变得不那么宽松，也变得更加分化。这将为做多DXY、做空PLN/HUF、做空美国久期和黄金提供支撑，对美国和台湾股票持谨慎态度。</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>Vaccination divergence:The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.<blockquote><li>疫苗接种差异：世界有两种对抗新冠肺炎的策略——疫苗接种和抑制。德尔塔变异毒株使后者变得困难，增加了疫苗接种率低地区的增长风险。该银行认为这对欧盟股市有利。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Valuation divergence:2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: \"Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades.\"<blockquote><li>估值差异：2021年至今，估值出现了广泛调整。Sheets的建议：“重点关注估值调整水平较大的领域。我们将巴西与新兴市场股票添加到我们的首选交易中。”</li></blockquote></li> <li>Echoes of 2004:Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.<blockquote><li>2004年的回声：Sheets认为，2004年为“周期中期转型”提供了一个有用的指南。他建议承担违约风险而不是利差风险，在信贷中喜欢贷款而不是债券。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Doing things &gt; buying things:The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy &gt; metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.<blockquote><li>做事情&gt;买东西：疫情见证了商品需求的激增和服务需求的崩溃。随着复苏的继续，预计会出现逆转。我们认为这支持能源&gt;金属，并对美国非必需消费品持谨慎态度。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> While regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.<blockquote>虽然普通读者都知道摩根士丹利的长期主题，即美国经济正在经历周期中期转型，但对于那些不熟悉的人来说，以下是该银行首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 此前对其进行框定的一种方式，表明 ISM 制造业指数总是落后于支付的价格，而支付的价格最近发生了逆转（如下图所示），并表明他密切关注的指标存在重大下行。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89346c02440d5fab4a98e72d7d27ba1f\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> As part of this \"mid-cycle transition\", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...<blockquote>作为这种“周期中期转型”的一部分，几个月前，该银行敦促客户从小盘股转向优质股票……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2afd584db11f19b6b05031483d6f6c\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in \"fire,\" with amarket correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...<blockquote>...我们现在正处于结束周期中期转型的边缘，根据迈克尔·威尔逊的说法，这一转型要么在“火”中结束，由于利率上升，市场调整了10-20%……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... or\"ice\"as consumer spending grinds to a halt.<blockquote>...或者“冰”随着消费者支出陷入停滞。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:<blockquote>综上所述，Andrew Sheets 列出了以下 5 个关键市场要点：</blockquote> <ol> <li>September and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals:The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a resultMorgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight.<blockquote><ol><li>9月和10月是央行沟通、经济数据和市场技术面的棘手时期：鉴于目前的估值，该银行认为美国股票和美国债券都存在风险，因此摩根士丹利将美国股市评级下调至跑输大盘，全球股市评级下调至同等权重.</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>For the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country.On growth, the bank believes that \"we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US,but the end of the cycle is not nigh.\"<blockquote><li>对于全球经济，摩根士丹利认为，当前的许多通胀压力都是暂时的，但通胀见顶的时间因地区和国家而异。关于增长，世行认为“我们已经过了活动高峰，8 月份在美国尤其疲软、但周期的结束还没有临近。”</li></blockquote></li> <li>In rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22,after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.<blockquote><li>在利率方面，毫不奇怪，微软认为核心利率已经触底，并将在2021年第四季度和 2022 年下半年走高，毕竟，这是华尔街最大的共识交易（因此可能是错误的）：央行退出政策宽松和近期经济数据低谷都应该有助于推高收益率。Sheets 还认为美元也将在年底走高。</li></blockquote></li> <li>For equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’:That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500.Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.<blockquote><li>对于股票，Sheets 警告说，市场内部人士继续遵循 “周期中期转型”：如上所述，这一过程通常以优质股票受到打击而告终，这给优质标普500带来了巨大风险。“火”（利率上升）和 “冰”（增长放缓比预期更严重）都给今年迄今为止几乎没有下调评级的市场带来了风险。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> Putting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening\"adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”<blockquote>综上所述，《周三早间床单》在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我们将在 9 月份经历一段数据疲软的时期，届时德尔塔变异毒株和学校重新开放的风险将会增加”他还补充说，“如果数据确实保持疲软，那么市场估值就不会像市场其他部分那样进行调整”。</blockquote> Bank of America<blockquote>美国银行</blockquote> Regular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his \"Bear Case In 12 \"Charts Of Darkness\"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&amp;P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.<blockquote>老读者都知道，美国银行一直是 2021 年最悲观的大银行之一，其首席投资官每周都会喷出一剂火和硫磺（例如，请参阅他在 12 张“黑暗图表”中的“熊市案例”），而该银行的首席股票策略师萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚 (Savita Subramanian) 将 2021 年底标准普尔股价目标维持在 3,800 点，与 Stifel 的 Barry Bannister 并列最悲观的策略师。</blockquote> Well that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&amp;P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is \"marking our models to market\", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that \"downside risks remain\"and asking \"what good news is left?\" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&amp;P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.<blockquote>今天情况发生了变化，就像几周前的迈克尔·威尔逊一样，她最终将标准普尔年终目标股价从3800点上调至4250点，并承认她正在“将我们的模型推向市场”，也就是说，仅仅是追赶股票，即美联储的资产负债表，但在此之前，她警告说“下行风险依然存在”并问“还有什么好消息?“事实上，虽然更高，但她的新价格目标仍然意味着比当前价格下跌 6%。下表揭示了她是如何达到这个特定价格的，以及 Subramanian 是如何达到 2022 年底 S&amp;P 目标价 4,600 点的……仅比现货高出 2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90219af90e39133a9a8eb66d0c0b8b5e\" tg-width=\"1208\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> But far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled \"Should you keep dancing if the music slows down?\" (available forprofessional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&amp;P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.<blockquote>但她今天上午发表的题为“如果音乐慢了，你应该继续跳舞吗?“（可供专业订户使用）是对一切与市场脱节的东西的严厉批评，也是对任何认为在 4,500 点的历史高点买入标准普尔指数是个好主意的人的警示。</blockquote> Next, Subramanian warns that \"sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007\"...<blockquote>接下来，苏布拉马尼亚警告说，“我们的卖方指标（见 SSI）比 2007 年以来的任何时候都更接近卖出信号，市场情绪几乎令人振奋”……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cceedf36db75a0f6e084d6dcd15450b5\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&amp;P500 returns...<blockquote>...解释标准普尔500后续25%回报的指标……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bba5b54c4c953c1b807b2ade30989a8\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.<blockquote>...而工资/投入成本通胀和供应链转变开始对利润率造成压力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7359b080cc5e60ad6723c32b74c68b70\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"976\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high,with S&amp;P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline. Finally, \"valuations leave no margin for error.\"<blockquote>美国银行策略师还计算出利率风险处于历史高位，标普500股票期限相当于36年期零息债券，贴现率每增加10个基点相当于下降4%最后，“估值不容许出错。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aef25e2e8272798285ebdeeeb692671\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Having reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that \"this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly.\"<blockquote>苏布拉马尼亚和威尔逊一样，不情愿地提高了目标价，但他很快警告说，“这可能不会结束。但当它结束时，结局可能会很糟糕。”</blockquote> If taper means no upside to the S&amp;P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping – PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&amp;P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99. As noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&amp;P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&amp;P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates thatthe 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, \"represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble.\" In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.<blockquote>如果缩减规模对标普500没有好处，那么紧缩政策将会更糟。金丝雀在鸣叫——工业活动晴雨表 PPG 放弃了对供应链困境的指导；信用利差悄然扩大，我们的估值模型（标准普尔10年期回报率的约80%解释力）现在显示负回报率（每年-0.8%），这是自1999年以来的首次。如上所述，Subramanian 还研究了她最喜欢的指标之一——价格与正常化收益——该指标与后续的长期标普500回报有着非常密切的关系。由于标普500目前的标准化市盈率为 29 倍，美国银行策略师计算出10年期12个月年化价格回报率为-0.8%，“代表了自科技泡沫以来的首次负回报率。”换句话说，十年后股票将……比现在低。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4da5e585ef1b82a957e348d35e1e959b\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote> While not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available forprofessional subscribers), titled \"The New World: Moving Beyond Covid\", the bank writes that \"the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations.This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases.\"<blockquote>虽然不像摩根士丹利（及其股票跑输大盘评级）或美国银行（其悲观的近期和 10 年预测）那样悲观，但德意志银行也加入了看跌的行列，在该银行最新的房屋观点中（可供专业订户使用），题为“新世界：超越新冠疫情”，该银行写道，“全球经济在夏季表现强劲，但 delta 变体导致数据错误与预期相比越来越频繁。这导致我们下调了美国近期增长前景，而高通胀数据已将注意力转移到央行何时缩减资产购买上。”</blockquote> Looking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but\"September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair.\"<blockquote>展望未来，DB指出，虽然缩减规模的讨论将增加美联储和欧洲央行本月决策的风险，但“9月份还将出现其他对前景至关重要的事件。德国大选形势明显紧张，民意调查显示只有三党联盟才能形成多数席位，这意味着谈判可能需要几个月的时间。美国政府资金将于9月30日用完，债务上限问题的潜在斗争即将到来。此外，众议院将于 9 月 27 日对两党基础设施法案进行投票，我们应该很快就会找到下一任美联储主席。”</blockquote> ANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists \"expect an imminent correction\" even though they see the S&amp;P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.<blockquote>尽管金融市场依然活跃，股票指数屡创新高，但德意志银行的策略师们表示，预计即将出现修正尽管他们预计标普500将在年底前回升至目前的水平。</blockquote> Some more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&amp;P drop 6%-10%:<blockquote>有关即将到来的市场回调的更多细节，DB 认为标准普尔指数将下跌 6%-10%：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Indicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative<blockquote><ul><li>宏观周期性增长指标见顶，数据惊喜现为负面</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Earnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.<blockquote><li>随着自下而上的共识显着上调了前瞻性预期，盈利可能会上调。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Inflation risks are rising.<blockquote><li>通胀风险正在上升。</li></blockquote></li> <li>And overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.<blockquote><li>尽管回购和资金流入仍然强劲，但散户投资者却在撤退，但整体仓位较高。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> But, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.<blockquote>但是，如上所述，为了打破超级熊市，DB 指出，它随后看到股市反弹，因为其基线仍然是强劲增长，但通胀只是逐渐温和上升。</blockquote> The summary of the bank's market views is below:<blockquote>本行的市场观点摘要如下：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/393a1c149faa0a0ba4b5a163c46f0615\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛</blockquote> Perhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what wefirst observed a few weeks ago,namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that \"if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”<blockquote>也许最令人愉快的观点来自高盛的克里斯蒂安·穆勒-格里斯曼，他在接受彭博社采访时呼应了我们几周前首次观察到的观点，即 “高估值增加了市场的脆弱性”，并补充说 “如果出现新的负面事态发展，可能会产生增长冲击，从而导致快速去风险化”。</blockquote> “The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.<blockquote>“穆勒-格里斯曼说：”这里的关键在于，如果你遇到巨大的负面意外，剩下的缓冲空间就所剩无几了。</blockquote> Writing in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available forprofessional subscribers)Mueller-Glissman said that \"the S&amp;P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns.After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&amp;P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter.\"<blockquote>Mueller-Glissman 在周二的 GOAL Kickstart 笔记中写道（专业订阅者可用），“尽管宏观经济疲软，标普500仍继续创下历史新高。事实上，夏季实际交易量降至 8%，表明新的低交易量制度，导致特别强劲的风险调整回报。继第一季度明显的‘好消息就是好消息’之后，对于标普500来说，上季度‘坏消息’再次变成了‘好消息’。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938dbf6f7ed7bb36b78a422b7829b9b7\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This, the Goldman strategist notes, \"is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks.\"<blockquote>高盛策略师指出，这“与鸽派‘货币政策’或追求收益率的更多支持是一致的：长期长期成长型股票因实际收益率下降而受到提振，这有助于目前在这些股票中权重较大的广泛指数。”</blockquote> Meanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop.<blockquote>与此同时，剖析宏观意外显示，虽然全球地图得分直到最近仍为正值，但在劳动力数据的带动下，美国地图转为负值，而消费者和制造业表现更好。总而言之，这支持了美联储鸽派政策预期，创造了“金发姑娘”的背景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cefc2563977601840609b214886ffe6\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, as Goldman warns,\"more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board.\"During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&amp;P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&amp;P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&amp;P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.<blockquote>然而，正如高盛警告的那样，“最近的宏观意外也全面变得更加负面。”在宏观经济出现负面意外的时期，股票的右尾风险历来较为有限——标普500的平均回报率和命中率往往较低。期权市场已经反映了这一点——未来 3 个月，标普500回报率非常正（高于 8%）的可能性定价低于正常水平，甚至低于经济放缓阶段。另一方面，Mueller-Glissman 指出，与低成交量制度下的平均水平相比，标普500上涨 5% 的可能性仍然较高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5b78b4707ec4beeb36ba3bde0c12e4\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Meanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.<blockquote>与此同时，近期较低的已实现波动率已将波动率风险溢价推至接近 2000 年代后的高点，高盛期权研究团队预计年底前的已实现波动率将低于暗示的水平。</blockquote> The conclusion: \"With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay.\"<blockquote>结论是：“由于股市接近历史高点、股票估值上升以及近期不太有利的增长/通胀组合，看涨期权超售作为套利叠加仍然具有吸引力。”</blockquote> Citigroup<blockquote>花旗集团</blockquote> The threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&amp;P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view,half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%.And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.<blockquote>花旗的 Chris Montagu 也谈到了市场日益脆弱的威胁，他在最新的观点报告中写道，投资者的头寸已经变得极度看涨，标普500的多头数量几乎是空头数量的 10 比 1。在他看来，如果指数跌幅低至 2.2%，其中一半的赌注可能会面临损失。即使是很小的调整也可能被强制多头平仓放大。</blockquote> As Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.<blockquote>正如蒙塔古所观察到的，主要股指继续创下新高，但不同地区的基本定位差异很大。美国股票仓位扩大且非常片面的净多头，这导致仓位不对称风险放大任何小幅市场调整。投资者继续加剧这种长期偏见。与此同时，欧洲的定位要轻得多，不太可能在短期内显着推动价格走势。在日本，日经 225 指数最近的上涨最初仅看到有限的投资者参与，但有迹象表明，尽管 ETF 继续出现适度流出，但期货投资者流动正在加速。</blockquote> Focusing just on the US, Montagu writes that \"investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer\" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as \"investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer.\"<blockquote>蒙塔古仅关注美国，他写道，“整个夏天，投资者一直在稳步增加净多头敞口”，并且仍然非常多头。与此同时，如果包括 “传统 ”头寸，特别是在 6 月 FOMC 会议前后向净多头的大幅波动，那么头寸看起来就更长了，因为 “投资者上周继续加大多头偏好，但只是在整个夏季剩余时间里以温和的稳定速度出现”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880354e695a0e0b3140c297256f35a1\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">WIth that in mind, Montagu warns that \"risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1.\"According to his calculations \"these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction).That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down.\"<blockquote>考虑到这一点，蒙塔古警告说“下行风险是不对称的，多头数量几乎比空头多 10 比 1 多。”根据他的计算，“当价格低于 4,435 点时，这些多头平均获利 2.4%，一半头寸亏损（约 2.2% 修正）。这意味着小幅调整可能会因强制多头清算而放大，从而进一步推动市场下跌。\"</blockquote> Finally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, \"nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer.\"<blockquote>最后，纳斯达克同样捉襟见肘，多头头寸的集中使得市场更容易遭受抛售，而较老的头寸则能获得巨额利润，从而缓冲小幅波动，”近四分之一的头寸是最近的，没有利润缓冲。”</blockquote> In short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.<blockquote>简而言之，一次严重的昏迷可能会很快变成溃败。</blockquote> Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷</blockquote> We round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist&nbsp;Andrew Garthwaite who while turnedbearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.<blockquote>我们通过浏览瑞士信贷股票策略师安德鲁·加斯韦特 (Andrew Garthwaite) 的最新笔记来完善悲观的银行概要，他虽然转向看跌美国股市，同时预测债券收益率和通胀预期上升可能会帮助欧洲股市跑赢地区同行。</blockquote> Europe’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is \"small underweight\" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.<blockquote>加斯韦特说，欧洲的 PMI 势头 “比美国好得多，市场与美国异常脱钩”，同时指出他是美国股市的 “小跑输大盘”，因为税收和监管带来的风险高于其他地区，并指出美国股市的 “极端 ”估值。</blockquote> * * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> So is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.<blockquote>那么，调整，甚至熊市，有保证吗？当然不是，除了美联储之外，还有两个关键催化剂可以阻止这种结果。一方面，当股市即将突破 4,350 点的关键支撑位时，银行可以像三周前那样再次发起创纪录的股票回购。然后，散户投资者的风险偏好持续存在。</blockquote> In his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.<blockquote>摩根大通量化师 Nick Panigirtzoglou 在最新的流动和流动性报告中认为散户投资者是近期上涨背后的关键力量，并指出他们在 7 月和 8 月向美国股票和 ETF 投入了近 300 亿美元现金，这是两个月来最多的一次。摩根大通表示，只要宽松的货币政策持续下去，这些散户投资者的表现在过去两年中超过了对冲基金，他们也可能成为保持市场稳定的支柱。</blockquote> “Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”<blockquote>“包括尼古拉斯-帕尼吉尔佐格鲁（Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou）在内的摩根大通全球策略师在9月1日的一份报告中写道：”散户投资者一直在以如此稳定和强劲的速度购买股票和股票基金，这使得股票回调的可能性看起来相当小。“即将到来的美联储政策变化是否会改变散户投资者对股票的态度还有待观察。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7624eef20d4b231aad9ebb3afc2e3e10\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely\" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that \"whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.\"<blockquote>Panigirtzoglou 写道：“今年到目前为止，散户投资者一直在以如此稳定和强劲的速度购买股票和股票基金，这使得股票回调看起来不太可能。”他补充说，“即将到来的美联储政策变化是否会改变散户投资者对股票的态度还有待观察”。</blockquote> At the same time, he also concedes the counter argument \"that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018\".<blockquote>与此同时，他也承认了反驳论点，“散户流量的强劲推高了股票，使全球投资者更多的跑赢大盘股票，其中许多人不愿意，获利了结的风险自然应该很高。事实上，为了支持这一反驳论点，更新我们最全面的股票头寸指标，即全球非银行投资者的隐含股票配置，表明目前的股票配置为46%，仅略低于2018年雷曼危机后47.6%的高点”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1854fc59f780452d1b297f29f0f8fc05\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter&nbsp; argument, \"in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.\" As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward \"is key to the equity market outlook.\"<blockquote>尽管摩根大通量化专家承认他同情这种反驳论点，但“在零售流入股票的速度没有大幅放缓的情况下，股票调整的风险仍然很低。”因此，他认为，未来每天和每周监控这种零售流量“是股市前景的关键”。</blockquote> And since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.<blockquote>既然摩根大通知道这一点，美联储当然也知道这一点，我们相信，即使是最小的市场小插曲也会引发马里纳·埃克尔斯大厦的愤怒反应，因为我们现在已经远远超过了不归路，杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的公司根本无法承受哪怕是最小的股价下跌，而不冒着市场全面崩溃的风险，这让上述预测这一点的银行非常懊恼。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts<blockquote>华尔街六大银行发布市场红色警报</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-09 14:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nMorgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.<blockquote>摩根士丹利、美国银行、德意志银行、花旗集团、瑞士信贷和高盛。</blockquote> These are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued \"red alert\" warnings on the US stock market in just the past few days, with some expecting an imminent correction of 10-20%, while others expect a slow burning drift lower over the next few months. Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.<blockquote>这些是华尔街一些最大的银行，在过去几天里对美国股市发出了“红色警报”警告，一些银行预计即将出现10-20%的调整，而另一些银行预计未来几个月将缓慢下跌。下面我们总结了他们令人惊讶的悲观观点的亮点。</blockquote> Morgan Stanley<blockquote>摩根士丹利</blockquote> We start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available forprofessional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a \"mid cycle transition\", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market \"generals\" - getting hit, \"which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500\" through October.<blockquote>我们从摩根士丹利开始，该公司昨天发布了最新的全球宏观论坛幻灯片（可供专业订阅者使用），该银行首席跨资产策略师安德鲁·希茨 (Andrew Sheets) 警告说，股票市场内部人士继续遵循“中期转型”，这一过程通常以优质股票（如 FAAMGs 市场“将军”）受到打击而告终，“这对高质量的标普500构成了巨大的风险“直到十月。</blockquote> Sheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:<blockquote>希茨通过披露他认为将定义年底市场的五个主题来阐述他的悲观观点。这些是：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Policy divergence and the start of tapering:MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.<blockquote><ol><li>政策分歧和缩减规模的开始：微软预计美联储将在9月份的会议上表明其缩减规模的意图。随着央行政策变得不那么宽松，也变得更加分化。这将为做多DXY、做空PLN/HUF、做空美国久期和黄金提供支撑，对美国和台湾股票持谨慎态度。</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>Vaccination divergence:The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.<blockquote><li>疫苗接种差异：世界有两种对抗新冠肺炎的策略——疫苗接种和抑制。德尔塔变异毒株使后者变得困难，增加了疫苗接种率低地区的增长风险。该银行认为这对欧盟股市有利。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Valuation divergence:2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: \"Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades.\"<blockquote><li>估值差异：2021年至今，估值出现了广泛调整。Sheets的建议：“重点关注估值调整水平较大的领域。我们将巴西与新兴市场股票添加到我们的首选交易中。”</li></blockquote></li> <li>Echoes of 2004:Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.<blockquote><li>2004年的回声：Sheets认为，2004年为“周期中期转型”提供了一个有用的指南。他建议承担违约风险而不是利差风险，在信贷中喜欢贷款而不是债券。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Doing things &gt; buying things:The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy &gt; metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.<blockquote><li>做事情&gt;买东西：疫情见证了商品需求的激增和服务需求的崩溃。随着复苏的继续，预计会出现逆转。我们认为这支持能源&gt;金属，并对美国非必需消费品持谨慎态度。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> While regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.<blockquote>虽然普通读者都知道摩根士丹利的长期主题，即美国经济正在经历周期中期转型，但对于那些不熟悉的人来说，以下是该银行首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 此前对其进行框定的一种方式，表明 ISM 制造业指数总是落后于支付的价格，而支付的价格最近发生了逆转（如下图所示），并表明他密切关注的指标存在重大下行。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89346c02440d5fab4a98e72d7d27ba1f\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> As part of this \"mid-cycle transition\", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...<blockquote>作为这种“周期中期转型”的一部分，几个月前，该银行敦促客户从小盘股转向优质股票……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2afd584db11f19b6b05031483d6f6c\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in \"fire,\" with amarket correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...<blockquote>...我们现在正处于结束周期中期转型的边缘，根据迈克尔·威尔逊的说法，这一转型要么在“火”中结束，由于利率上升，市场调整了10-20%……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ed4becb4b4add1c291379068668ca7\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... or\"ice\"as consumer spending grinds to a halt.<blockquote>...或者“冰”随着消费者支出陷入停滞。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83d20b93fac562ec12c5371ce0cec674\" tg-width=\"1130\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Putting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:<blockquote>综上所述，Andrew Sheets 列出了以下 5 个关键市场要点：</blockquote> <ol> <li>September and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals:The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a resultMorgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight.<blockquote><ol><li>9月和10月是央行沟通、经济数据和市场技术面的棘手时期：鉴于目前的估值，该银行认为美国股票和美国债券都存在风险，因此摩根士丹利将美国股市评级下调至跑输大盘，全球股市评级下调至同等权重.</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>For the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country.On growth, the bank believes that \"we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US,but the end of the cycle is not nigh.\"<blockquote><li>对于全球经济，摩根士丹利认为，当前的许多通胀压力都是暂时的，但通胀见顶的时间因地区和国家而异。关于增长，世行认为“我们已经过了活动高峰，8 月份在美国尤其疲软、但周期的结束还没有临近。”</li></blockquote></li> <li>In rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22,after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.<blockquote><li>在利率方面，毫不奇怪，微软认为核心利率已经触底，并将在2021年第四季度和 2022 年下半年走高，毕竟，这是华尔街最大的共识交易（因此可能是错误的）：央行退出政策宽松和近期经济数据低谷都应该有助于推高收益率。Sheets 还认为美元也将在年底走高。</li></blockquote></li> <li>For equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’:That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&amp;P 500.Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.<blockquote><li>对于股票，Sheets 警告说，市场内部人士继续遵循 “周期中期转型”：如上所述，这一过程通常以优质股票受到打击而告终，这给优质标普500带来了巨大风险。“火”（利率上升）和 “冰”（增长放缓比预期更严重）都给今年迄今为止几乎没有下调评级的市场带来了风险。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> Putting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening\"adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”<blockquote>综上所述，《周三早间床单》在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“我们将在 9 月份经历一段数据疲软的时期，届时德尔塔变异毒株和学校重新开放的风险将会增加”他还补充说，“如果数据确实保持疲软，那么市场估值就不会像市场其他部分那样进行调整”。</blockquote> Bank of America<blockquote>美国银行</blockquote> Regular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his \"Bear Case In 12 \"Charts Of Darkness\"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&amp;P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.<blockquote>老读者都知道，美国银行一直是 2021 年最悲观的大银行之一，其首席投资官每周都会喷出一剂火和硫磺（例如，请参阅他在 12 张“黑暗图表”中的“熊市案例”），而该银行的首席股票策略师萨维塔·苏布拉马尼亚 (Savita Subramanian) 将 2021 年底标准普尔股价目标维持在 3,800 点，与 Stifel 的 Barry Bannister 并列最悲观的策略师。</blockquote> Well that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&amp;P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is \"marking our models to market\", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that \"downside risks remain\"and asking \"what good news is left?\" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&amp;P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.<blockquote>今天情况发生了变化，就像几周前的迈克尔·威尔逊一样，她最终将标准普尔年终目标股价从3800点上调至4250点，并承认她正在“将我们的模型推向市场”，也就是说，仅仅是追赶股票，即美联储的资产负债表，但在此之前，她警告说“下行风险依然存在”并问“还有什么好消息?“事实上，虽然更高，但她的新价格目标仍然意味着比当前价格下跌 6%。下表揭示了她是如何达到这个特定价格的，以及 Subramanian 是如何达到 2022 年底 S&amp;P 目标价 4,600 点的……仅比现货高出 2%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90219af90e39133a9a8eb66d0c0b8b5e\" tg-width=\"1208\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> But far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled \"Should you keep dancing if the music slows down?\" (available forprofessional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&amp;P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.<blockquote>但她今天上午发表的题为“如果音乐慢了，你应该继续跳舞吗?“（可供专业订户使用）是对一切与市场脱节的东西的严厉批评，也是对任何认为在 4,500 点的历史高点买入标准普尔指数是个好主意的人的警示。</blockquote> Next, Subramanian warns that \"sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007\"...<blockquote>接下来，苏布拉马尼亚警告说，“我们的卖方指标（见 SSI）比 2007 年以来的任何时候都更接近卖出信号，市场情绪几乎令人振奋”……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cceedf36db75a0f6e084d6dcd15450b5\" tg-width=\"1177\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&amp;P500 returns...<blockquote>...解释标准普尔500后续25%回报的指标……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bba5b54c4c953c1b807b2ade30989a8\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.<blockquote>...而工资/投入成本通胀和供应链转变开始对利润率造成压力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7359b080cc5e60ad6723c32b74c68b70\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"976\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> The BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high,with S&amp;P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline. Finally, \"valuations leave no margin for error.\"<blockquote>美国银行策略师还计算出利率风险处于历史高位，标普500股票期限相当于36年期零息债券，贴现率每增加10个基点相当于下降4%最后，“估值不容许出错。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9aef25e2e8272798285ebdeeeb692671\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Having reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that \"this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly.\"<blockquote>苏布拉马尼亚和威尔逊一样，不情愿地提高了目标价，但他很快警告说，“这可能不会结束。但当它结束时，结局可能会很糟糕。”</blockquote> If taper means no upside to the S&amp;P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping – PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&amp;P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99. As noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&amp;P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&amp;P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates thatthe 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, \"represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble.\" In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.<blockquote>如果缩减规模对标普500没有好处，那么紧缩政策将会更糟。金丝雀在鸣叫——工业活动晴雨表 PPG 放弃了对供应链困境的指导；信用利差悄然扩大，我们的估值模型（标准普尔10年期回报率的约80%解释力）现在显示负回报率（每年-0.8%），这是自1999年以来的首次。如上所述，Subramanian 还研究了她最喜欢的指标之一——价格与正常化收益——该指标与后续的长期标普500回报有着非常密切的关系。由于标普500目前的标准化市盈率为 29 倍，美国银行策略师计算出10年期12个月年化价格回报率为-0.8%，“代表了自科技泡沫以来的首次负回报率。”换句话说，十年后股票将……比现在低。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4da5e585ef1b82a957e348d35e1e959b\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote> While not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available forprofessional subscribers), titled \"The New World: Moving Beyond Covid\", the bank writes that \"the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations.This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases.\"<blockquote>虽然不像摩根士丹利（及其股票跑输大盘评级）或美国银行（其悲观的近期和 10 年预测）那样悲观，但德意志银行也加入了看跌的行列，在该银行最新的房屋观点中（可供专业订户使用），题为“新世界：超越新冠疫情”，该银行写道，“全球经济在夏季表现强劲，但 delta 变体导致数据错误与预期相比越来越频繁。这导致我们下调了美国近期增长前景，而高通胀数据已将注意力转移到央行何时缩减资产购买上。”</blockquote> Looking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but\"September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair.\"<blockquote>展望未来，DB指出，虽然缩减规模的讨论将增加美联储和欧洲央行本月决策的风险，但“9月份还将出现其他对前景至关重要的事件。德国大选形势明显紧张，民意调查显示只有三党联盟才能形成多数席位，这意味着谈判可能需要几个月的时间。美国政府资金将于9月30日用完，债务上限问题的潜在斗争即将到来。此外，众议院将于 9 月 27 日对两党基础设施法案进行投票，我们应该很快就会找到下一任美联储主席。”</blockquote> ANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists \"expect an imminent correction\" even though they see the S&amp;P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.<blockquote>尽管金融市场依然活跃，股票指数屡创新高，但德意志银行的策略师们表示，预计即将出现修正尽管他们预计标普500将在年底前回升至目前的水平。</blockquote> Some more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&amp;P drop 6%-10%:<blockquote>有关即将到来的市场回调的更多细节，DB 认为标准普尔指数将下跌 6%-10%：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Indicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative<blockquote><ul><li>宏观周期性增长指标见顶，数据惊喜现为负面</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Earnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.<blockquote><li>随着自下而上的共识显着上调了前瞻性预期，盈利可能会上调。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Inflation risks are rising.<blockquote><li>通胀风险正在上升。</li></blockquote></li> <li>And overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.<blockquote><li>尽管回购和资金流入仍然强劲，但散户投资者却在撤退，但整体仓位较高。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> But, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.<blockquote>但是，如上所述，为了打破超级熊市，DB 指出，它随后看到股市反弹，因为其基线仍然是强劲增长，但通胀只是逐渐温和上升。</blockquote> The summary of the bank's market views is below:<blockquote>本行的市场观点摘要如下：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/393a1c149faa0a0ba4b5a163c46f0615\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Goldman Sachs<blockquote>高盛</blockquote> Perhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what wefirst observed a few weeks ago,namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that \"if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”<blockquote>也许最令人愉快的观点来自高盛的克里斯蒂安·穆勒-格里斯曼，他在接受彭博社采访时呼应了我们几周前首次观察到的观点，即 “高估值增加了市场的脆弱性”，并补充说 “如果出现新的负面事态发展，可能会产生增长冲击，从而导致快速去风险化”。</blockquote> “The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.<blockquote>“穆勒-格里斯曼说：”这里的关键在于，如果你遇到巨大的负面意外，剩下的缓冲空间就所剩无几了。</blockquote> Writing in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available forprofessional subscribers)Mueller-Glissman said that \"the S&amp;P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns.After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&amp;P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter.\"<blockquote>Mueller-Glissman 在周二的 GOAL Kickstart 笔记中写道（专业订阅者可用），“尽管宏观经济疲软，标普500仍继续创下历史新高。事实上，夏季实际交易量降至 8%，表明新的低交易量制度，导致特别强劲的风险调整回报。继第一季度明显的‘好消息就是好消息’之后，对于标普500来说，上季度‘坏消息’再次变成了‘好消息’。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938dbf6f7ed7bb36b78a422b7829b9b7\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This, the Goldman strategist notes, \"is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks.\"<blockquote>高盛策略师指出，这“与鸽派‘货币政策’或追求收益率的更多支持是一致的：长期长期成长型股票因实际收益率下降而受到提振，这有助于目前在这些股票中权重较大的广泛指数。”</blockquote> Meanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop.<blockquote>与此同时，剖析宏观意外显示，虽然全球地图得分直到最近仍为正值，但在劳动力数据的带动下，美国地图转为负值，而消费者和制造业表现更好。总而言之，这支持了美联储鸽派政策预期，创造了“金发姑娘”的背景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cefc2563977601840609b214886ffe6\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, as Goldman warns,\"more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board.\"During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&amp;P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&amp;P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&amp;P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.<blockquote>然而，正如高盛警告的那样，“最近的宏观意外也全面变得更加负面。”在宏观经济出现负面意外的时期，股票的右尾风险历来较为有限——标普500的平均回报率和命中率往往较低。期权市场已经反映了这一点——未来 3 个月，标普500回报率非常正（高于 8%）的可能性定价低于正常水平，甚至低于经济放缓阶段。另一方面，Mueller-Glissman 指出，与低成交量制度下的平均水平相比，标普500上涨 5% 的可能性仍然较高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5b78b4707ec4beeb36ba3bde0c12e4\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Meanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.<blockquote>与此同时，近期较低的已实现波动率已将波动率风险溢价推至接近 2000 年代后的高点，高盛期权研究团队预计年底前的已实现波动率将低于暗示的水平。</blockquote> The conclusion: \"With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay.\"<blockquote>结论是：“由于股市接近历史高点、股票估值上升以及近期不太有利的增长/通胀组合，看涨期权超售作为套利叠加仍然具有吸引力。”</blockquote> Citigroup<blockquote>花旗集团</blockquote> The threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&amp;P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view,half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%.And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.<blockquote>花旗的 Chris Montagu 也谈到了市场日益脆弱的威胁，他在最新的观点报告中写道，投资者的头寸已经变得极度看涨，标普500的多头数量几乎是空头数量的 10 比 1。在他看来，如果指数跌幅低至 2.2%，其中一半的赌注可能会面临损失。即使是很小的调整也可能被强制多头平仓放大。</blockquote> As Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.<blockquote>正如蒙塔古所观察到的，主要股指继续创下新高，但不同地区的基本定位差异很大。美国股票仓位扩大且非常片面的净多头，这导致仓位不对称风险放大任何小幅市场调整。投资者继续加剧这种长期偏见。与此同时，欧洲的定位要轻得多，不太可能在短期内显着推动价格走势。在日本，日经 225 指数最近的上涨最初仅看到有限的投资者参与，但有迹象表明，尽管 ETF 继续出现适度流出，但期货投资者流动正在加速。</blockquote> Focusing just on the US, Montagu writes that \"investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer\" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as \"investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer.\"<blockquote>蒙塔古仅关注美国，他写道，“整个夏天，投资者一直在稳步增加净多头敞口”，并且仍然非常多头。与此同时，如果包括 “传统 ”头寸，特别是在 6 月 FOMC 会议前后向净多头的大幅波动，那么头寸看起来就更长了，因为 “投资者上周继续加大多头偏好，但只是在整个夏季剩余时间里以温和的稳定速度出现”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880354e695a0e0b3140c297256f35a1\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">WIth that in mind, Montagu warns that \"risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1.\"According to his calculations \"these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction).That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down.\"<blockquote>考虑到这一点，蒙塔古警告说“下行风险是不对称的，多头数量几乎比空头多 10 比 1 多。”根据他的计算，“当价格低于 4,435 点时，这些多头平均获利 2.4%，一半头寸亏损（约 2.2% 修正）。这意味着小幅调整可能会因强制多头清算而放大，从而进一步推动市场下跌。\"</blockquote> Finally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, \"nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer.\"<blockquote>最后，纳斯达克同样捉襟见肘，多头头寸的集中使得市场更容易遭受抛售，而较老的头寸则能获得巨额利润，从而缓冲小幅波动，”近四分之一的头寸是最近的，没有利润缓冲。”</blockquote> In short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.<blockquote>简而言之，一次严重的昏迷可能会很快变成溃败。</blockquote> Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷</blockquote> We round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist&nbsp;Andrew Garthwaite who while turnedbearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.<blockquote>我们通过浏览瑞士信贷股票策略师安德鲁·加斯韦特 (Andrew Garthwaite) 的最新笔记来完善悲观的银行概要，他虽然转向看跌美国股市，同时预测债券收益率和通胀预期上升可能会帮助欧洲股市跑赢地区同行。</blockquote> Europe’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is \"small underweight\" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.<blockquote>加斯韦特说，欧洲的 PMI 势头 “比美国好得多，市场与美国异常脱钩”，同时指出他是美国股市的 “小跑输大盘”，因为税收和监管带来的风险高于其他地区，并指出美国股市的 “极端 ”估值。</blockquote> * * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> So is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.<blockquote>那么，调整，甚至熊市，有保证吗？当然不是，除了美联储之外，还有两个关键催化剂可以阻止这种结果。一方面，当股市即将突破 4,350 点的关键支撑位时，银行可以像三周前那样再次发起创纪录的股票回购。然后，散户投资者的风险偏好持续存在。</blockquote> In his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.<blockquote>摩根大通量化师 Nick Panigirtzoglou 在最新的流动和流动性报告中认为散户投资者是近期上涨背后的关键力量，并指出他们在 7 月和 8 月向美国股票和 ETF 投入了近 300 亿美元现金，这是两个月来最多的一次。摩根大通表示，只要宽松的货币政策持续下去，这些散户投资者的表现在过去两年中超过了对冲基金，他们也可能成为保持市场稳定的支柱。</blockquote> “Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”<blockquote>“包括尼古拉斯-帕尼吉尔佐格鲁（Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou）在内的摩根大通全球策略师在9月1日的一份报告中写道：”散户投资者一直在以如此稳定和强劲的速度购买股票和股票基金，这使得股票回调的可能性看起来相当小。“即将到来的美联储政策变化是否会改变散户投资者对股票的态度还有待观察。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7624eef20d4b231aad9ebb3afc2e3e10\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely\" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that \"whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.\"<blockquote>Panigirtzoglou 写道：“今年到目前为止，散户投资者一直在以如此稳定和强劲的速度购买股票和股票基金，这使得股票回调看起来不太可能。”他补充说，“即将到来的美联储政策变化是否会改变散户投资者对股票的态度还有待观察”。</blockquote> At the same time, he also concedes the counter argument \"that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018\".<blockquote>与此同时，他也承认了反驳论点，“散户流量的强劲推高了股票，使全球投资者更多的跑赢大盘股票，其中许多人不愿意，获利了结的风险自然应该很高。事实上，为了支持这一反驳论点，更新我们最全面的股票头寸指标，即全球非银行投资者的隐含股票配置，表明目前的股票配置为46%，仅略低于2018年雷曼危机后47.6%的高点”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1854fc59f780452d1b297f29f0f8fc05\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter&nbsp; argument, \"in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.\" As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward \"is key to the equity market outlook.\"<blockquote>尽管摩根大通量化专家承认他同情这种反驳论点，但“在零售流入股票的速度没有大幅放缓的情况下，股票调整的风险仍然很低。”因此，他认为，未来每天和每周监控这种零售流量“是股市前景的关键”。</blockquote> And since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.<blockquote>既然摩根大通知道这一点，美联储当然也知道这一点，我们相信，即使是最小的市场小插曲也会引发马里纳·埃克尔斯大厦的愤怒反应，因为我们现在已经远远超过了不归路，杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的公司根本无法承受哪怕是最小的股价下跌，而不冒着市场全面崩溃的风险，这让上述预测这一点的银行非常懊恼。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/six-largest-wall-street-banks-issue-market-red-alerts\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/six-largest-wall-street-banks-issue-market-red-alerts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112626627","content_text":"Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs.\nThese are some of the biggest Wall Street banks that have issued \"red alert\" warnings on the US stock market in just the past few days, with some expecting an imminent correction of 10-20%, while others expect a slow burning drift lower over the next few months. Below we summarize the highlights of their surprisingly downbeat views.\nMorgan Stanley\nWe start with Morgan Stanley, which yesterday published its latest Global Macro Forum slide deck (available forprofessional subscribers), and where the bank's chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets warns that equity market internals have continued to follow a \"mid cycle transition\", a process which usually ends with quality stocks - like the FAAMGs market \"generals\" - getting hit, \"which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&P 500\" through October.\nSheets frames his pessimistic view by disclosing the five themes which he believes will define markets though year-end. These are:\n\nPolicy divergence and the start of tapering:MS expects the Fed to signal its intent to taper at the September meeting. As central bank policy becomes less easy, it also becomes more divergent. This will provide support for long DXY, short PLN/HUF, short US duration and gold, caution on US and Taiwan equities.\nVaccination divergence:The world has two strategies to combat COVID-19 – vaccination and suppression. The Delta variant has made the latter difficult, increasing risks to growth in regions with low vaccination rates. The bank sees this as bullish for EU equities.\nValuation divergence:2021 to date has seen a wide adjustment in valuations. Sheets' advice: \"Focus on areas with greater levels of valuation adjustment. We add Brazil versus EM equities to our top trades.\"\nEchoes of 2004:Sheets thinks that 2004 offers a useful guide for a 'mid-cycle transition’. He suggests taking default risk over spread risk and like loans over bonds in credit.\nDoing things > buying things:The pandemic saw demand for goods jump and demand for services collapse. As the recovery continues, expect a reversal. We think this supports energy > metals, and are cautious on US consumer discretionary.\n\nWhile regular readers are aware of Morgan Stanley's long-running theme that the US economy is undergoing a mid-cycle transition, for those unfamiliar, here is one way that the bank's chief equity strategist Michael Wilson has framed it previously, showing that the ISM Manufacturing Index always lags the Prices Paid, which has recently reversed (shown inverted on the chart below) and suggests of significant downside tot he closely watched indicator.\n\nAs part of this \"mid-cycle transition\", several months ago the bank urged clients to transition out of small caps and into quality stocks...\n\n... we are now on the verge of ending the mid-cycle transition, which according to Michael Wilson ends either in \"fire,\" with amarket correction of 10-20% as a result of higher rates...\n\n... or\"ice\"as consumer spending grinds to a halt.\nPutting it together, Andrew Sheets lists the following 5 key market takeaways:\n\nSeptember and October represents a tricky period for central bank communication, economic data and market technicals:The bank sees risks to both US equities and US bonds given current valuations, and as a resultMorgan Stanley is downgrading US stocks to Underweight and global equities to Equal Weight.\nFor the global economy, Morgan Stanley thinks that many current inflationary pressures are temporary, but the timing of peak inflation varies by region and country.On growth, the bank believes that \"we’ve passed the peak in activity, with August particularly weak in the US,but the end of the cycle is not nigh.\"\nIn rates, it will come as no surprise that MS thinks that core rates have bottomed and will move higher into 4Q21 and into 2H22,after all this is the biggest consensus trade across Wall Street (and is thus likely wrong): Central bank withdrawal of policy accommodation and a near-term trough in economic data should both help to push yields higher. Sheets also thinks USD also grinds higher into year-end.\nFor equities, Sheets warns that market internals have continued to follow a ‘mid-cycle transition’:That process, as noted above, usually ends with quality stocks getting hit, which poses outsized risk to the high-quality S&P 500.Both ‘fire’ (rates higher) and ‘ice’ (the growth slowdown is worse than expected) pose risk to a market that has barely de-rated year-to-date.\n\nPutting it all together, on Wednesday morning Sheets spoke to Bloomberg TV, saying that “we are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening\"adding that “If the data does stay soft, the market valuations just haven’t adjusted like other parts of the market have.”\nBank of America\nRegular readers will know that Bank of America has been one of the most bearish big banks in 2021, with its Chief Investment Officer spouting a weekly dose of fire and brimstone (as an example see his \"Bear Case In 12 \"Charts Of Darkness\"), while the bank's chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian having held to the lowest 2021 year-end S&P price target at just 3,800, tied with Stifel's Barry Bannister for most bearish strategist.\nWell that changed today, when just like Michael Wilson a few weeks ago, she finally hiked her year-end S&P price target to 4,250 from 3,800, admitting that she is \"marking our models to market\", i.e., merely catching up with stocks, i.e., the Fed's balance sheet, but not before warning that \"downside risks remain\"and asking \"what good news is left?\" Indeed, while higher, her new price target still implies 6% downside from current prices. The table below reveals how she got to that particular price, and also how Subramanian got her 2022 year-end S&P price target of 4,600... which is just 2% higher from spot.\n\nBut far from turning bullish, her note published this morning titled \"Should you keep dancing if the music slows down?\" (available forprofessional subscribers) is a scathing critique of everything that is broken with the market, and a cautionary tale to anyone who believes that buying the S&P at its all time high of 4,500 is a good idea.\nNext, Subramanian warns that \"sentiment is all but euphoric with our Sell Side Indicator (see SSI) closer to a sell signal than at any point since 2007\"...\n\n... an indicator which explains 25% of subsequent S&P500 returns...\n\n... while wage/input cost inflation and supply chain shifts are starting to weigh on margins.\n\nThe BofA strategist also calculates that interest rate risk is at a record high,with S&P 500 equity duration equivalent to a 36-year zero-coupon bond, where every 10bp increase in the discount rate equates to a 4% decline. Finally, \"valuations leave no margin for error.\"\n\nHaving reluctantly hiked the price target, Subramanian - like Wilson - is quick to caution that \"this may not end now. But when it ends, it could end badly.\"\n\n If taper means no upside to the S&P 500, tightening would be worse. Canaries are chirping – \n PPG, a barometer of industrial activity, aborted guidance on supply chain woes; credit spreads have stealthily widened, and our valuation model (~80% explanatory power for S&P 10yr returns) now indicates negative returns (-0.8% p.a.) for the first time since ‘99.\n\nAs noted above, Subramanian also looked at one of her favorite indicators - price to normalized earnings - which has a very strong relationship to subsequent S&P 500 returns over the long haul. With the S&P 500 current sporting a trailing normalized PE ratio of 29x, the BofA strategist calculates thatthe 10-year annual 12-month price return of -0.8%, \"represents the first negative returns since the Tech Bubble.\" In other words, ten years from now stocks will be... lower than where they are now.\nDeutsche Bank\nWhile not nearly as bearish as Morgan Stanley (and its equity Underweight rating) or Bank of America (with its gloomy near-term and 10 year forecasts), Deutsche Bank has also joined the bandwagon of bears, and in the bank's latest House View (available forprofessional subscribers), titled \"The New World: Moving Beyond Covid\", the bank writes that \"the global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations.This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases.\"\nLooking ahead, DB notes that while tapering discussions will raise the stakes for this month’s Fed and ECB decisions but\"September will see other pivotal events for the outlook too. The German election has tightened up significantly, and polls suggest that only three-party coalitions can form a majority, meaning negotiations could take some months. US government funding runs out on September 30, and a potential fight over the debt ceiling is approaching. Furthermore, the House will vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27, and we should soon find out the next Fed Chair.\"\nANd while financial markets have remained buoyant, and equity indices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, Deutsche Bank's strategists \"expect an imminent correction\" even though they see the S&P 500 rising back around current levels by year end.\nSome more details on the coming pullback in markets which DB believes will see the S&P drop 6%-10%:\n\nIndicators of macro cyclical growth are peaking and data surprises are now negative\nEarnings upgrades are likely done as the bottom up consensus has upgraded forward estimates significantly.\nInflation risks are rising.\nAnd overall positioning is high while the retail investor is in retreat, though buybacks and inflows are still strong.\n\nBut, as noted above, and in seeking to break from the uber-bears, DB notes that it then sees equities rallying back as its baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation.\nThe summary of the bank's market views is below:\n\nGoldman Sachs\nPerhaps the most cheerful take of all, came from Goldman's Christian Mueller-Glissmann, who in a Bloomberg interview echoed what wefirst observed a few weeks ago,namely that “High valuations have increased market fragility,” adding that \"if there is a new negative development, it could generate growth shocks that lead to rapid de-risking.”\n“The key point here is there is very little buffer left if you get large negative surprises,” said Mueller-Glissmann.\nWriting in a GOAL Kickstart note on Tuesday (available forprofessional subscribers)Mueller-Glissman said that \"the S&P 500 has continued to make all-time highs despite the weaker macro. In fact, realized vol dipped to 8% during the summer pointing towards a new low vol regime, resulting in particularly strong risk-adjusted returns.After the clear 'good news is good news' regime in Q1, for the S&P 500 'bad news' has become 'good news' again last quarter.\"\nThis, the Goldman strategist notes, \"is consistent with more support from dovish 'monetary policy' or search for yield: long-duration secular growth stocks have been boosted by the decline in real yields, helping broad indices which now have a larger weight in these stocks.\"\nMeanwhile, dissecting macro surprises shows that while global MAP scores were still positive until recently, the US MAP turned negative, led by labor data while consumer and manufacturing held up better. All in all this has supported dovish Fed policy expectations creating a 'Goldilocks' backdrop.\nHowever, as Goldman warns,\"more recently macro surprises have also turned more negative across the board.\"During periods of negative macro surprises the right tail risk for equities has historically been more limited - average returns and hit ratios for the S&P 500 tend to be lower. Option markets have reflected this - for the next 3m the likelihood of very positive S&P 500 returns (above 8%) is priced lower than normal, even lower than during slowdown phases. On the other hand, Mueller-Glissman notes that the likelihood of a 5% S&P 500 rally is still elevated compared to the average during low vol regimes.\nMeanwhile, the recent low realized volatility has pushed the volatility risk premium close to the post-2000s highs and Goldman's options research team expects realized volatility until the end of the year to be lower than what is implied.\nThe conclusion: \"With equities close to all-time highs, elevated equity valuations and a less favorable growth/inflation mix near term, call overwriting can still be attractive as a carry overlay.\"\nCitigroup\nThe threat of growing market fragility was also touched upon by Citi's Chris Montagu who in his latest Viewpoint note, wrote that investor positioning has become ultra-bullish, with longs on the S&P 500 outnumbering shorts by nearly 10 to 1. In his view,half of those bets are likely to face losses on a drop in the index of as little as 2.2%.And even a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation.\nAs Montagu observes, the main equity indexes continue to set new highs, but the underlying positioning differs greatly by region. US equity positioning is extended and very one-sided net long, which leads to asymmetric risk of positioning amplifying any small market correction. Investors continue to add to this long bias. Meanwhile, positioning is much lighter in Europe and less likely to significantly drive price action near term. In Japan the recent rally in Nikkei 225 initially only saw limited investor participation, but there are signs that futures investor flows are accelerating even as ETFs continue to see modest outflows.\nFocusing just on the US, Montagu writes that \"investors have steadily been adding to net long exposure throughout the summer\" and remain very long. Meanwhile, if one includes “legacy” positions and in particular the large swing towards net longer around the June FOMC meeting, then positioning looks even more extended as \"investors continued to add to the long bias last week, but only at the moderate steady rate seen throughout the rest of the summer.\"\nWIth that in mind, Montagu warns that \"risk is asymmetric to the downside with crowded positioning in the form of longs outnumbering shorts nearly 10 to 1.\"According to his calculations \"these longs sit on an average 2.4% profit and half of positions in loss on a move below 4,435 (~2.2% correction).That means a small correction could be amplified by forced long liquidation pushing the market further down.\"\nFinally, the Nasdaq is similarly stretched with the concentration of long positions leaving the market more vulnerable on a sell-off, and while older positions sit on large profits which act as a buffer on minor volatility, \"nearly a quarter of positions are more recent and with no profit buffer.\"\nIn short, one serious swoon lower could quickly transform into a rout.\nCredit Suisse\nWe round out the gloomish bank compendium by skimming the latest note from Credit Suisse equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite who while turnedbearish on U.S. equities while predicting that rising bond yields and inflation expectations are likely to help European equities outperform their regional peers.\nEurope’s PMI momentum is “much better than in the U.S., and markets have unusually decoupled from this,” Garthwaite said, while noting that he is \"small underweight\" on U.S. equities as tax and regulations pose a higher risk than other regions, and points to “extreme” valuations.\n* * *\nSo is a correction, or perhaps even bear market, assured? Of course not, and there are two key catalysts that could prevent such an outcome, besides the Fed of course. On one hand, banks can unleash another record burst of stock buybacks as they did three weeks ago just as stocks were about to breach the key 4,350 support level. And then, there is the continued risk appetite among retail investors.\nIn his latest Flows and Liquidity notes, JPM quant Nick Panigirtzoglou saw retail investors as the key force behind recent gains, noting that they plowed almost $30 billion of cash into US stocks and ETFs in July and August, the most in a two-month period. And it is these retail investors - whose performance has trounced that of hedge funds in the past two years, that could also be the support pillar that keeps the market stable, as long as easy money policies persist, according to JPM.\n“Retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely,” JPMorgan global strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a Sept. 1 note. “Whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.”\n\"So far this year retail investors have been buying stocks and equity funds at such a steady and strong pace that makes an equity correction looking rather unlikely\" Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding that \"whether the coming Fed policy change changes retail investors’ attitude towards equities remains to be seen.\"\nAt the same time, he also concedes the counter argument \"that the strength of the retail flow has pushed equities up by so much and has made investors globally more overweight equities, many of them unwilling, that the risk of profit taking should be naturally high. Indeed, in support of this counter argument, updating our most holistic of our equity position indicators, i.e. the implied equity allocation of non-bank investors globally, points to an equity allocation of 46% currently, only slightly below the post Lehman crisis high of 47.6% seen in 2018\".\nAnd while the JPM quant admits that he is sympathetic to this counter  argument, \"in the absence of a material slowing in the retail flow into equities, the risk of an equity correction remains low.\" As such, in his view monitoring this retail flow on a daily and weekly basis going forward \"is key to the equity market outlook.\"\nAnd since JPMorgan knows this, the Fed certainly knows this, and we are confident that even the smallest market hiccup will prompt a furious response at the Marriner Eccles building, because we are now well beyond the point of no return and Jerome Powell and company simply can not afford even the smallest drop in stocks without risking a full-blown market meltdown, much to the chagrin of the banks above who are predicting just that.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2327,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/883051474"}