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2021-09-15
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Wall Street Expects the S&P 500 to Fall. Even the Optimists Aren't Very Upbeat.<blockquote>华尔街预计标普500将下跌。即使是乐观主义者也不是很乐观。</blockquote>
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Even the Optimists Aren't Very Upbeat.<blockquote>华尔街预计标普500将下跌。即使是乐观主义者也不是很乐观。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133293397","media":"Barrons","summary":"The stock market hasn’t had a formal correction all year and many strategists are now calling for on","content":"<p>The stock market hasn’t had a formal correction all year and many strategists are now calling for one. One bank still sees gains ahead because companies’ earnings are too good to ignore, but the rally it has penciled in would be far from spectacular.</p><p><blockquote>股市全年都没有出现正式调整，许多策略师现在都在呼吁进行正式调整。一家银行仍然认为未来会有收益，因为公司的盈利太好了，不容忽视，但它所预测的涨势远非惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Several strategists are now looking for a negative return on the S&P 500 by the end of the year. Some are calling for a correction, defined as a drawdown of at least 10%. The largest decline in the market benchmark so far this year was just 5%.</p><p><blockquote>几位策略师现在正在寻找今年年底前标普500的负回报。一些人呼吁进行修正，定义为至少下调10%。今年迄今为止，市场基准的最大跌幅仅为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Several factors, including valuations, could trigger the drop. The average stock on the S&P 500 currently trades at just under 21 times the earnings per share expected for the next 12 months. That is more than 35% higher than the long-term average.</p><p><blockquote>包括估值在内的几个因素可能会引发下跌。目前，标普500股票的平均交易价格略低于未来 12 个月预期每股收益的 21 倍。这比长期平均水平高出35%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Falling bond yields, which make future profits worth more in current terms, have lifted valuations. But with the yield on 10-year Treasury debt currently at 1.31%— well below long-term inflation expectations of above 2%, a rare occurrence in the bond market—the decline could easily be over.Morgan Stanley‘s chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson, sees the 10-year yield hitting 1.8% by year-end, and the S&P 500’s earnings multiple falling to 19 times.</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率下降使得未来利润以当前价格计算更有价值，从而推高了估值。但由于10年期国债收益率目前为1.31%——远低于2%以上的长期通胀预期，这在债券市场上是罕见的——下跌很容易结束。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson预计，到年底，10年期国债收益率将达到1.8%，标普500的市盈率将降至19倍。</blockquote></p><p> Even assuming corporate earnings are unaffected, this would mean severe downside for stocks. Wilson’s call on the level of the S&P 500 relative to the aggregate per-share earnings of the companies included would bring the index down 9%.</p><p><blockquote>即使假设企业盈利不受影响，这也意味着股市将面临严重的下跌。威尔逊在标普500水平上的看涨期权相对于被纳入公司的每股收益总额将使该指数下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Stifel’s head of institutional equity strategy, Barry Bannister, said in a recent research note that lower earnings multiples resulting from higher bond yields could mean the S&P 500 could fall 10% to 15%.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel 机构股票策略主管 Barry Bannister 在最近的一份研究报告中说，债券收益率上升导致市盈率下降，这可能意味着标普500可能会下跌 10% 到 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Profits are another potential trouble spot, not least because of supply-chain issues. Already, several companies have lowered their forecasts for sales and earnings for the current quarter because problems getting parts are lowering their customers’—and their own—production. Analysts and management teams expect strong demand to lift profits when the supply problems ease and inventory levels climb again, but it isn’t clear when that might happen, or how bad the shortages of parts and finished goods could become.</p><p><blockquote>利润是另一个潜在的麻烦点，尤其是因为供应链问题。已经有几家公司下调了本季度的销售额和盈利预期，因为零部件采购问题降低了客户和自己的产量。分析师和管理团队预计，当供应问题缓解、库存水平再次攀升时，强劲的需求将提高利润，但目前还不清楚这种情况何时会发生，也不清楚零部件和成品短缺会变得多严重。</blockquote></p><p> “This [supply constraints] will be a more substantial risk to the rally we’ll need to watch for,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Prolonged trouble could mean unexpectedly severe damage to profits.</p><p><blockquote>“Sevens Report Research 创始人汤姆-埃萨耶（Tom Essaye）写道：”这种（供应限制）将对我们需要密切关注的反弹构成更大的风险。长期的麻烦可能意味着利润遭受意想不到的严重损害。</blockquote></p><p> Higher corporate taxes would also bring earnings down, but stock prices don’t seem to be reflecting that risk.Goldman Sachs strategists said earlier this year that S&P 500 EPS could fall 5% if the corporate tax rate rises to 25% from 21% — and House Democrats proposed an increase to 26.5% on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师今年早些时候表示，如果公司税率从21%提高到25%，标普500的每股收益可能会下降5%--众议院民主党人周一提议将公司税率提高到26.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, RBC strategists raised their S&P 500 price target to 4,500 on Monday. They now see S&P 500 earnings per share for 2022 coming in at $222, only slightly above the consensus call of $218 among analysts. While RBC acknowledges the average multiple may fall to just above 20 times, its call implies a gain of just 0.7% relative to Monday’s closing level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，加拿大皇家银行策略师周一仍将标普500目标股价上调至 4,500 美元。他们现在预计标普500 2022 年每股收益为 222 美元，仅略高于分析师普遍预期的 218 美元看涨期权。虽然加拿大皇家银行承认平均市盈率可能会降至 20 倍以上，但其看涨期权显示，与周一收盘价相比，市盈率仅上涨 0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the more bullish observers aren’t forecasting anything exciting for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使是比较乐观的观察家也没有预测股市会有什么令人兴奋的事情发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Expects the S&P 500 to Fall. Even the Optimists Aren't Very Upbeat.<blockquote>华尔街预计标普500将下跌。即使是乐观主义者也不是很乐观。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Expects the S&P 500 to Fall. Even the Optimists Aren't Very Upbeat.<blockquote>华尔街预计标普500将下跌。即使是乐观主义者也不是很乐观。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 15:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market hasn’t had a formal correction all year and many strategists are now calling for one. One bank still sees gains ahead because companies’ earnings are too good to ignore, but the rally it has penciled in would be far from spectacular.</p><p><blockquote>股市全年都没有出现正式调整，许多策略师现在都在呼吁进行正式调整。一家银行仍然认为未来会有收益，因为公司的盈利太好了，不容忽视，但它所预测的涨势远非惊人。</blockquote></p><p> Several strategists are now looking for a negative return on the S&P 500 by the end of the year. Some are calling for a correction, defined as a drawdown of at least 10%. The largest decline in the market benchmark so far this year was just 5%.</p><p><blockquote>几位策略师现在正在寻找今年年底前标普500的负回报。一些人呼吁进行修正，定义为至少下调10%。今年迄今为止，市场基准的最大跌幅仅为 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Several factors, including valuations, could trigger the drop. The average stock on the S&P 500 currently trades at just under 21 times the earnings per share expected for the next 12 months. That is more than 35% higher than the long-term average.</p><p><blockquote>包括估值在内的几个因素可能会引发下跌。目前，标普500股票的平均交易价格略低于未来 12 个月预期每股收益的 21 倍。这比长期平均水平高出35%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Falling bond yields, which make future profits worth more in current terms, have lifted valuations. But with the yield on 10-year Treasury debt currently at 1.31%— well below long-term inflation expectations of above 2%, a rare occurrence in the bond market—the decline could easily be over.Morgan Stanley‘s chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson, sees the 10-year yield hitting 1.8% by year-end, and the S&P 500’s earnings multiple falling to 19 times.</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率下降使得未来利润以当前价格计算更有价值，从而推高了估值。但由于10年期国债收益率目前为1.31%——远低于2%以上的长期通胀预期，这在债券市场上是罕见的——下跌很容易结束。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson预计，到年底，10年期国债收益率将达到1.8%，标普500的市盈率将降至19倍。</blockquote></p><p> Even assuming corporate earnings are unaffected, this would mean severe downside for stocks. Wilson’s call on the level of the S&P 500 relative to the aggregate per-share earnings of the companies included would bring the index down 9%.</p><p><blockquote>即使假设企业盈利不受影响，这也意味着股市将面临严重的下跌。威尔逊在标普500水平上的看涨期权相对于被纳入公司的每股收益总额将使该指数下跌 9%。</blockquote></p><p> Stifel’s head of institutional equity strategy, Barry Bannister, said in a recent research note that lower earnings multiples resulting from higher bond yields could mean the S&P 500 could fall 10% to 15%.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel 机构股票策略主管 Barry Bannister 在最近的一份研究报告中说，债券收益率上升导致市盈率下降，这可能意味着标普500可能会下跌 10% 到 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Profits are another potential trouble spot, not least because of supply-chain issues. Already, several companies have lowered their forecasts for sales and earnings for the current quarter because problems getting parts are lowering their customers’—and their own—production. Analysts and management teams expect strong demand to lift profits when the supply problems ease and inventory levels climb again, but it isn’t clear when that might happen, or how bad the shortages of parts and finished goods could become.</p><p><blockquote>利润是另一个潜在的麻烦点，尤其是因为供应链问题。已经有几家公司下调了本季度的销售额和盈利预期，因为零部件采购问题降低了客户和自己的产量。分析师和管理团队预计，当供应问题缓解、库存水平再次攀升时，强劲的需求将提高利润，但目前还不清楚这种情况何时会发生，也不清楚零部件和成品短缺会变得多严重。</blockquote></p><p> “This [supply constraints] will be a more substantial risk to the rally we’ll need to watch for,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Prolonged trouble could mean unexpectedly severe damage to profits.</p><p><blockquote>“Sevens Report Research 创始人汤姆-埃萨耶（Tom Essaye）写道：”这种（供应限制）将对我们需要密切关注的反弹构成更大的风险。长期的麻烦可能意味着利润遭受意想不到的严重损害。</blockquote></p><p> Higher corporate taxes would also bring earnings down, but stock prices don’t seem to be reflecting that risk.Goldman Sachs strategists said earlier this year that S&P 500 EPS could fall 5% if the corporate tax rate rises to 25% from 21% — and House Democrats proposed an increase to 26.5% on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师今年早些时候表示，如果公司税率从21%提高到25%，标普500的每股收益可能会下降5%--众议院民主党人周一提议将公司税率提高到26.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Still, RBC strategists raised their S&P 500 price target to 4,500 on Monday. They now see S&P 500 earnings per share for 2022 coming in at $222, only slightly above the consensus call of $218 among analysts. While RBC acknowledges the average multiple may fall to just above 20 times, its call implies a gain of just 0.7% relative to Monday’s closing level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，加拿大皇家银行策略师周一仍将标普500目标股价上调至 4,500 美元。他们现在预计标普500 2022 年每股收益为 222 美元，仅略高于分析师普遍预期的 218 美元看涨期权。虽然加拿大皇家银行承认平均市盈率可能会降至 20 倍以上，但其看涨期权显示，与周一收盘价相比，市盈率仅上涨 0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Even the more bullish observers aren’t forecasting anything exciting for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使是比较乐观的观察家也没有预测股市会有什么令人兴奋的事情发生。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-correction-outlook-strategists-51631632149?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-correction-outlook-strategists-51631632149?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133293397","content_text":"The stock market hasn’t had a formal correction all year and many strategists are now calling for one. One bank still sees gains ahead because companies’ earnings are too good to ignore, but the rally it has penciled in would be far from spectacular.\nSeveral strategists are now looking for a negative return on the S&P 500 by the end of the year. Some are calling for a correction, defined as a drawdown of at least 10%. The largest decline in the market benchmark so far this year was just 5%.\nSeveral factors, including valuations, could trigger the drop. The average stock on the S&P 500 currently trades at just under 21 times the earnings per share expected for the next 12 months. That is more than 35% higher than the long-term average.\nFalling bond yields, which make future profits worth more in current terms, have lifted valuations. But with the yield on 10-year Treasury debt currently at 1.31%— well below long-term inflation expectations of above 2%, a rare occurrence in the bond market—the decline could easily be over.Morgan Stanley‘s chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson, sees the 10-year yield hitting 1.8% by year-end, and the S&P 500’s earnings multiple falling to 19 times.\nEven assuming corporate earnings are unaffected, this would mean severe downside for stocks. Wilson’s call on the level of the S&P 500 relative to the aggregate per-share earnings of the companies included would bring the index down 9%.\nStifel’s head of institutional equity strategy, Barry Bannister, said in a recent research note that lower earnings multiples resulting from higher bond yields could mean the S&P 500 could fall 10% to 15%.\nProfits are another potential trouble spot, not least because of supply-chain issues. Already, several companies have lowered their forecasts for sales and earnings for the current quarter because problems getting parts are lowering their customers’—and their own—production. Analysts and management teams expect strong demand to lift profits when the supply problems ease and inventory levels climb again, but it isn’t clear when that might happen, or how bad the shortages of parts and finished goods could become.\n“This [supply constraints] will be a more substantial risk to the rally we’ll need to watch for,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Prolonged trouble could mean unexpectedly severe damage to profits.\nHigher corporate taxes would also bring earnings down, but stock prices don’t seem to be reflecting that risk.Goldman Sachs strategists said earlier this year that S&P 500 EPS could fall 5% if the corporate tax rate rises to 25% from 21% — and House Democrats proposed an increase to 26.5% on Monday.\nStill, RBC strategists raised their S&P 500 price target to 4,500 on Monday. They now see S&P 500 earnings per share for 2022 coming in at $222, only slightly above the consensus call of $218 among analysts. While RBC acknowledges the average multiple may fall to just above 20 times, its call implies a gain of just 0.7% relative to Monday’s closing level.\nEven the more bullish observers aren’t forecasting anything exciting for stocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2562,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/882203157"}
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