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2021-09-11
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One Small Step From Apple Could Mean A Giant Leap For GlobalStar<blockquote>苹果的一小步可能意味着 GlobalStar 的巨大飞跃</blockquote>
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Instead, the opportunities offered by Globalstar's Low Earth Orbit (\"LEO\") satellites are much better, especially in areas that don't have 4G or 5G cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>对我们大多数人来说，我们使用基于卫星的互联网的经验意味着连接很差，有时甚至不稳定，但这些大多是在远离地球表面的地球静止卫星上。相反，Globalstar的低地球轨道（“LEO”）卫星提供的机会要好得多，尤其是在没有4G或5G蜂窝覆盖的地区。</blockquote></p><p> To have an idea of the potential of LEO satellites, one can take a glance at Elon Musk’s SpaceX's (SPACE). These have been deployed at locations in the U.S and the U.K. with several customers already having signed up to the service. Bench-marking by Speedtest showed download speeds of 97.23 Mbps,or far superior than those for other traditional providers. This speed was lower than the 115.22 Mbps median speed for fixed broadband providers, but makes sense for \"disadvantaged locations\" where telcos find it uneconomical to lay down additional fiber or expand cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>要了解 LEO 卫星的潜力，可以看看埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX（SPACE）。这些已经部署在美国和英国的地点，一些客户已经注册了该服务。Speedtest的基准测试显示下载速度为97.23 Mbps， 远远优于其他传统提供商。这一速度低于固定宽带提供商115.22 Mbps的中值速度，但对于电信公司发现铺设额外光纤或扩大蜂窝覆盖范围不经济的“弱势位置”来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, given the enormous potential of the blending between the iPhone and satellite connectivity, news about Apple using Globalstar's network only for emergency purposes seems more aimed at not alarming its telco partners with whom it has been working since decades.</p><p><blockquote>因此，鉴于 iPhone 和卫星连接之间融合的巨大潜力，有关苹果仅将 Globalstar 网络用于紧急目的的消息似乎更多的是为了不惊动与之合作了几十年的电信合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> This blending is made possible by Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) inclusion of Globalstar's band n53 in its new 5G X65 modem. This should also expand the satellite operator's potential device ecosystem significantly to include smartphones, laptops and tablets.</p><p><blockquote>高通（纳斯达克股票代码：QCOM）在其新的5G X65调制解调器中加入了Globalstar的n53频段，使这种融合成为可能。这也将大大扩展卫星运营商的潜在设备生态系统，包括智能手机、笔记本电脑和平板电脑。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, the Snapdragon X65 will be released in the fall of 2022, most likely into next year’s iPhone. Better peak performance and other benefits should be there, but some will require carriers to upgrade their networks. On the other hand, with band n53, one can imagine the transformation of future mobility communications with a single operator plan anywhere in the world, without necessitating roaming, with no need to buy local SIM cards.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，骁龙 X65 将于 2022 年秋季发布，很可能会在明年的 iPhone 中发布。更好的峰值性能和其他好处应该会存在，但有些将要求运营商升级他们的网络。另一方面，有了n53频段，人们可以想象未来移动通信的转变，在世界任何地方，单一运营商计划，无需漫游，也无需购买本地SIM卡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Globalstar's differentiation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Globalstar 的差异化</b></blockquote></p><p> Thus, this is not just about emergency calls or messaging and in a way, shows Globalstar's edge as a satellite network operator over telco's mobile network operations.</p><p><blockquote>因此，这不仅仅是关于紧急评级或消息传递，在某种程度上，显示了Globalstar作为卫星网络运营商相对于电信移动网络运营的优势。</blockquote></p><p> Now, satellite communications is a huge industry, estimated at $56.01 billion in 2019 and expected to hit $99.58 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2027. Going deeper, there are several satellite operators and service providers, with Iridium (IRDM) and Orbcomm (ORBC). Other companies are involved in space technology like DISH Networks (DISH) and AT&T (T).</p><p><blockquote>现在，卫星通信是一个巨大的产业，2019年估计为560.1亿美元，预计到2027年将达到995.8亿美元，2020年至2027年的CAGR为9.2%。更深入地说，有几家卫星运营商和服务提供商，包括铱星公司（IRDM）和Orbcomm公司（ORBC）。其他公司也涉足太空技术，如 DISH Networks (DISH) 和 AT&T (T)。</blockquote></p><p> Here, GlobalStar seems to be having some key strengths with respect to peers.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，GlobalStar似乎比同行有一些关键优势。</blockquote></p><p> According to the company's website, its strategically placed gateways offer local network access and national numbering plans as opposed to other LEO systems that require expensive international dialing for all calls. Also, Globalstar has a unique design which allows it to offer the most attractive local dialing and pricing plans to customers.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的网站，其战略性放置的网关提供本地网络接入和国家编号计划，而其他LEO系统则需要为所有评级进行昂贵的国际拨号。此外，Globalstar有一个独特的设计，使其能够为客户提供最具吸引力的本地拨号和定价计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Pursuing further, Globalstar’s 24 ground stations also serve as a bridge between LEO satellites and traditional communications infrastructure on six continents, with coverage spanning across over 120 countries throughout the world. Furthermore, the second generation ground infrastructure is based on the Internet protocol multimedia subsystem (\"IMS\") protocol, which facilitates the use of IP (Internet Protocol) for packet communications over wireless or landline.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Globalstar 的 24 个地面站还充当了 LEO 卫星与六大洲传统通信基础设施之间的桥梁，覆盖全球 120 多个国家。此外，第二代地面基础设施基于互联网协议多媒体子系统(“IMS”)协议，这有助于使用IP（互联网协议）通过无线或固定电话进行分组通信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ab07af4d39eb03b1776e870748b773f\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: globalstar.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：globalstar.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Globalstar brings some attractive metrics for a behemoth like Apple looking to penetrate new markets. In this respect, according to a source, more than five billion mobile subscribers constantly move in and out of wireless coverage, representing a huge TAM.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Globalstar为苹果这样寻求打入新市场的巨头带来了一些有吸引力的指标。在这方面，据一位消息人士透露，超过50亿移动用户不断进出无线覆盖范围，代表了一个巨大的TAM。</blockquote></p><p> Bagging a contract with Apple, even a partial one, or in partnership with another peer would increase the volume of new subscribers, which should in turn more than offset the current revenue impact from lower ARPU (Average Revenue per User).</p><p><blockquote>与苹果签订合同，即使是部分合同，或者与另一个同行合作，都会增加新用户的数量，这反过来应该会抵消当前ARPU（每用户平均收入）较低带来的收入影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The revenues</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall sales have gone down in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year as higher revenue generated from subscriber equipment related to SPOT (the largest segment) was offset by lower service revenues. For investors, SPOT is a GPS tracking device that uses Globalstar's satellite network to provide text messaging and GPS tracking.</p><p><blockquote>与去年相比，2021 年第二季度的整体销售额有所下降，因为与 SPOT（最大的细分市场）相关的用户设备产生的更高收入被较低的服务收入所抵消。对于投资者来说，SPOT是一款GPS跟踪设备，它使用Globalstar的卫星网络提供短信和GPS跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> Looking deeper, service revenue also decreased over the prior year's quarter due to fewer Duplex subscribers, with the decline expected to continue as Globalstar focuses resources on other revenue streams, like IoT-enabled devices. This is done in light of the shift in demand across the MSS (mobile satellite services) industry.</p><p><blockquote>更深层次地看，由于双工用户减少，服务收入也比上年季度有所下降，随着 Globalstar 将资源集中在其他收入流（例如支持物联网的设备）上，预计下降将继续。这样做是考虑到整个MSS（移动卫星服务）行业需求的变化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e8b74a670c927d2d84f1751cfd4a148\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"457\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, service revenues generated from commercial IoT subscribers increased 5% in the second quarter of 2021 driven by higher ARPU compared to the prior year's quarter. Additionally, IoT equipment sales were up significantly from the prior year period, which is a key indication of future service revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，在ARPU高于去年同期的推动下，2021年第二季度商业物联网用户产生的服务收入增长了5%。此外，物联网设备销售额较去年同期大幅增长，这是未来服务收入增长的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Thinking aloud, lower ARPU for SPOT also points to competition, with Globalstar competing aggressively on price in the industrial, governmental and consumer markets. Looking at satellite phones and communication gadgets, some of the competitors include Garmin's (GRMN) InReach, Iridium Go and the Thuraya X5-Touch, which is a dual-SIM Android smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>大声思考，SPOT 较低的 ARPU 也表明存在竞争，Globalstar 在工业、政府和消费市场的价格竞争非常激烈。从卫星电话和通信设备来看，一些竞争对手包括 Garmin (GRMN) 的 InReach、Iridium Go 和 Thuraya X5-Touch，后者是一款双卡 Android 智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the company has to cut prices with its “competitively-priced service plans being lower than historic rates”. Therefore, SPOT revenues should continue to decline in the near term, with higher volumes of activations not being able to offset the effects of lower ARPU on sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司不得不降价，其 “价格有竞争力的服务计划低于历史费率”。因此，短期内现货收入应继续下降，较高的激活量无法抵消ARPU下降对销售的影响。</blockquote></p><p> A comparison with rival Iridium shows contrasting revenue trends, with Globalstar being on a fluctuating trend since the end of 2019, coinciding with more competition.</p><p><blockquote>与竞争对手 Iridium 的比较显示了截然不同的收入趋势，Globalstar 自 2019 年底以来一直处于波动趋势，同时竞争也更加激烈。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be74c4a607fae52a664620ba3cf9d68\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Charts built through data from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：通过Seeking Alpha的数据构建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, adopting a cautionary posture, a change in the revenue-generating model geared towards IoT may take time to execute, whereby sales figures could drop further. This may in turn lead to missing topline expectations during the third quarter results, causing the share price to dip. For this matter, as I had pointed out in my previousthesis, one of the risks in investing in Globalstar is its dependence on the fortunes of the oil and gas industry.</p><p><blockquote>因此，采取谨慎态度，面向物联网的创收模式的改变可能需要时间来执行，因此销售数字可能会进一步下降。这反过来可能导致第三季度业绩未达营收预期，导致股价下跌。就此而言，正如我在之前的论文中指出的，投资 Globalstar 的风险之一是它对石油和天然气行业命运的依赖。</blockquote></p><p> On the positive side, the company continues to reduce leverage, with less than $50 million of net first lien principal outstanding at the end of Q2-2021.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的一面来看，该公司继续降低杠杆率，截至 2021 年第二季度末，未偿还的净第一留置权本金不到 5000 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, the company held $15.7 million and $51.0 million of cash and restricted cash respectively. Globalstar has received an additional $37.5 million in advance payment from a customer. The new payment is under \"substantially the same terms\" as a similar $37.5 million payment received on June 9. As with the other payment, Globalstar will use the new $37.5 million in proceeds to pay down indebtedness under its first-lien credit facility. In the last report, the company had $313.4 million in long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，该公司分别持有1570万美元和5100万美元的现金和受限制现金。Globalstar 已从客户处收到额外 3750 万美元预付款。新付款的条款与 6 月 9 日收到的类似 3750 万美元付款“基本相同”。与其他付款一样，Globalstar 将使用新的 3750 万美元收益来偿还其第一留置权信贷安排下的债务。在上一份报告中，该公司有3.134亿美元的长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations and key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值和主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As much as 16% of revenues were derived from IoT in the first six months of 2021, up from 14% in the same period last year. Now, in a market growing at 10.1% from 2019 to 2025, there is a lot of scope, but it will also depend on Globalstar's ability to meaningfully identify, pursue and close large deals. This should contribute to further diversify its revenue base away from full Duplex.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年前六个月，多达 16% 的收入来自物联网，高于去年同期的 14%。现在，在一个从2019年到2025年以10.1%的速度增长的市场中，有很大的空间，但这也将取决于Globalstar有意义地识别、追求和完成大型交易的能力。这将有助于其收入基础进一步多元化，摆脱完全复式。</blockquote></p><p> The company has also performed successful field testing for remote monitoring in the alternative energy industry, which it expects to materialize into future sales, but without mentioning a timeline.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在替代能源行业进行了成功的远程监控现场测试，预计这将转化为未来的销售，但没有提及时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, this is a loss-making company with losses from operations having increased by $0.6 million during the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year. Earnings per share which was -$0.01 for the second quarter is expected to be the same in the third one. This compares to positive figures for the communications sector, which boasts forward Price to Earnings multiples of 20x. This signifies no buying opportunity based on fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这是一家亏损公司，2021年第二季度的运营亏损比去年增加了60万美元。第二季度每股收益为-0.01美元，预计第三季度将持平。相比之下，通信行业的预期市盈率为 20 倍。这意味着基于基本面没有买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The only way Globalstar's loss status could change rapidly is commercialization of its n53 spectrum in the U.S. and other countries through presence in the iPhone ecosystem. A partnership with Apple will permit expansion of the satellite communications business, more effective utilization of network assets and enable Globalstar to leapfrog rivals. The fact that both companies work with Qualcomm is a positive for Globalstar.</p><p><blockquote>Globalstar的损失状况可能迅速改变的唯一方法是通过在iPhone生态系统中的存在，在美国和其他国家将其n53频谱商业化。与苹果的合作将扩大卫星通信业务，更有效地利用网络资产，并使Globalstar超越竞争对手。两家公司都与高通合作的事实对 Globalstar 来说是一个积极因素。</blockquote></p><p> This said, in absence of corporate announcements, Globalstar's stock has been surging amid ongoing speculation that its satellite communication technology may be included in Apple's new iPhone models, resulting in high Price to Sales multiples of over 2000% with respect to the communications sector.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在没有公司公告的情况下，Globalstar 的股价一直在飙升，因为人们一直猜测其卫星通信技术可能会包含在苹果的新款 iPhone 机型中，导致通信行业的市销率超过 2000%。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, for rational investors, it is preferable to wait for an update at the\"California Streaming\" event on September 14 before making a decision. In the meantime, the stock could drop to the $2 support level.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于理性的投资者来说，最好等待9月14日“加州流媒体”活动的更新后再做决定。与此同时，该股可能会跌至 2 美元的支撑位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Small Step From Apple Could Mean A Giant Leap For GlobalStar<blockquote>苹果的一小步可能意味着 GlobalStar 的巨大飞跃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Small Step From Apple Could Mean A Giant Leap For GlobalStar<blockquote>苹果的一小步可能意味着 GlobalStar 的巨大飞跃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 09:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>At first sight, Globalstar is just one more satellite communications play.</li> <li>Looking deeper, its Band n53, which offers secure and reliable connectivity in any environment, is now included into Qualcomm's latest 5G modems for smartphones.</li> <li>Being selected by Apple could mean a lot for Globalstar in its strategy to boost and diversify revenues, as well as change the current loss-making status.</li> <li>Even without Apple, the company merits interest, but only as a long-term beneficiary of IoT amid fierce competition and ability to reduce debt.</li> <li>Valuations are sky-high in light of all the news hitting the market and, it is better to wait for some concrete news at Apple's event next week before investing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6c50a6d200b5d8c35f4d14498600c9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>metamorworks/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>乍一看，Globalstar 只是又一家卫星通信公司。</li><li>更深入地看，其波段n53可在任何环境下提供安全可靠的连接，现已包含在高通最新的智能手机5G调制解调器中。</li><li>被苹果选中对于 Globalstar 增加收入和实现收入多元化以及改变目前亏损状况的战略来说可能意义重大。</li><li>即使没有苹果，该公司也值得关注，但只能在激烈的竞争和减少债务的能力中作为物联网的长期受益者。</li><li>鉴于所有冲击市场的消息，估值非常高，最好在投资前等待下周苹果发布会上的一些具体消息。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>metamorworks/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Globalstar's (GSAT) shares soared 40% on August 30 after a report by MacRumors which cited expert Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities, about iPhone 13 using satellite connectivity so that users can make calls and texts in areas without cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>8 月 30 日，MacRumors 的一份报告援引天风国际证券专家苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）分析师郭明𫓹的话说，iPhone 13 使用卫星连接，以便用户可以在没有蜂窝覆盖的地区进行评级和文本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd859c3544ffd37de25d5bc8dfe3166\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Soon afterwards, there were some further clarification by Bloomberg specifying that those features aren't due soon, but rather for future iPhones and should allow users to issue crash reports or text messages in areas without cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>不久之后，彭博进一步澄清了这些功能，指出这些功能不会很快推出，而是针对未来的iPhone，应该允许用户在没有蜂窝覆盖的地区发布崩溃报告或短信。</blockquote></p><p> Now, for Apple to even consider adding any satellite-based feature to its global brand would mean a lot for Globalstar, but first, for investors, I make sense of it all.</p><p><blockquote>现在，苹果甚至考虑在其全球品牌中添加任何基于卫星的功能对 Globalstar 来说意义重大，但首先，对于投资者来说，我理解这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reasons for Apple to choose Globalstar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果选择环球之星的理由</b></blockquote></p><p> For most of us, our experience with satellite-based internet has meant poor or sometimes erratic connectivity, but these were mostly with the geostationary satellites located far above the earth's surface. Instead, the opportunities offered by Globalstar's Low Earth Orbit (\"LEO\") satellites are much better, especially in areas that don't have 4G or 5G cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>对我们大多数人来说，我们使用基于卫星的互联网的经验意味着连接很差，有时甚至不稳定，但这些大多是在远离地球表面的地球静止卫星上。相反，Globalstar的低地球轨道（“LEO”）卫星提供的机会要好得多，尤其是在没有4G或5G蜂窝覆盖的地区。</blockquote></p><p> To have an idea of the potential of LEO satellites, one can take a glance at Elon Musk’s SpaceX's (SPACE). These have been deployed at locations in the U.S and the U.K. with several customers already having signed up to the service. Bench-marking by Speedtest showed download speeds of 97.23 Mbps,or far superior than those for other traditional providers. This speed was lower than the 115.22 Mbps median speed for fixed broadband providers, but makes sense for \"disadvantaged locations\" where telcos find it uneconomical to lay down additional fiber or expand cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>要了解 LEO 卫星的潜力，可以看看埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的 SpaceX（SPACE）。这些已经部署在美国和英国的地点，一些客户已经注册了该服务。Speedtest的基准测试显示下载速度为97.23 Mbps， 远远优于其他传统提供商。这一速度低于固定宽带提供商115.22 Mbps的中值速度，但对于电信公司发现铺设额外光纤或扩大蜂窝覆盖范围不经济的“弱势位置”来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, given the enormous potential of the blending between the iPhone and satellite connectivity, news about Apple using Globalstar's network only for emergency purposes seems more aimed at not alarming its telco partners with whom it has been working since decades.</p><p><blockquote>因此，鉴于 iPhone 和卫星连接之间融合的巨大潜力，有关苹果仅将 Globalstar 网络用于紧急目的的消息似乎更多的是为了不惊动与之合作了几十年的电信合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> This blending is made possible by Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) inclusion of Globalstar's band n53 in its new 5G X65 modem. This should also expand the satellite operator's potential device ecosystem significantly to include smartphones, laptops and tablets.</p><p><blockquote>高通（纳斯达克股票代码：QCOM）在其新的5G X65调制解调器中加入了Globalstar的n53频段，使这种融合成为可能。这也将大大扩展卫星运营商的潜在设备生态系统，包括智能手机、笔记本电脑和平板电脑。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, the Snapdragon X65 will be released in the fall of 2022, most likely into next year’s iPhone. Better peak performance and other benefits should be there, but some will require carriers to upgrade their networks. On the other hand, with band n53, one can imagine the transformation of future mobility communications with a single operator plan anywhere in the world, without necessitating roaming, with no need to buy local SIM cards.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，骁龙 X65 将于 2022 年秋季发布，很可能会在明年的 iPhone 中发布。更好的峰值性能和其他好处应该会存在，但有些将要求运营商升级他们的网络。另一方面，有了n53频段，人们可以想象未来移动通信的转变，在世界任何地方，单一运营商计划，无需漫游，也无需购买本地SIM卡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Globalstar's differentiation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Globalstar 的差异化</b></blockquote></p><p> Thus, this is not just about emergency calls or messaging and in a way, shows Globalstar's edge as a satellite network operator over telco's mobile network operations.</p><p><blockquote>因此，这不仅仅是关于紧急评级或消息传递，在某种程度上，显示了Globalstar作为卫星网络运营商相对于电信移动网络运营的优势。</blockquote></p><p> Now, satellite communications is a huge industry, estimated at $56.01 billion in 2019 and expected to hit $99.58 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2027. Going deeper, there are several satellite operators and service providers, with Iridium (IRDM) and Orbcomm (ORBC). Other companies are involved in space technology like DISH Networks (DISH) and AT&T (T).</p><p><blockquote>现在，卫星通信是一个巨大的产业，2019年估计为560.1亿美元，预计到2027年将达到995.8亿美元，2020年至2027年的CAGR为9.2%。更深入地说，有几家卫星运营商和服务提供商，包括铱星公司（IRDM）和Orbcomm公司（ORBC）。其他公司也涉足太空技术，如 DISH Networks (DISH) 和 AT&T (T)。</blockquote></p><p> Here, GlobalStar seems to be having some key strengths with respect to peers.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，GlobalStar似乎比同行有一些关键优势。</blockquote></p><p> According to the company's website, its strategically placed gateways offer local network access and national numbering plans as opposed to other LEO systems that require expensive international dialing for all calls. Also, Globalstar has a unique design which allows it to offer the most attractive local dialing and pricing plans to customers.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的网站，其战略性放置的网关提供本地网络接入和国家编号计划，而其他LEO系统则需要为所有评级进行昂贵的国际拨号。此外，Globalstar有一个独特的设计，使其能够为客户提供最具吸引力的本地拨号和定价计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Pursuing further, Globalstar’s 24 ground stations also serve as a bridge between LEO satellites and traditional communications infrastructure on six continents, with coverage spanning across over 120 countries throughout the world. Furthermore, the second generation ground infrastructure is based on the Internet protocol multimedia subsystem (\"IMS\") protocol, which facilitates the use of IP (Internet Protocol) for packet communications over wireless or landline.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Globalstar 的 24 个地面站还充当了 LEO 卫星与六大洲传统通信基础设施之间的桥梁，覆盖全球 120 多个国家。此外，第二代地面基础设施基于互联网协议多媒体子系统(“IMS”)协议，这有助于使用IP（互联网协议）通过无线或固定电话进行分组通信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ab07af4d39eb03b1776e870748b773f\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: globalstar.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：globalstar.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Globalstar brings some attractive metrics for a behemoth like Apple looking to penetrate new markets. In this respect, according to a source, more than five billion mobile subscribers constantly move in and out of wireless coverage, representing a huge TAM.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Globalstar为苹果这样寻求打入新市场的巨头带来了一些有吸引力的指标。在这方面，据一位消息人士透露，超过50亿移动用户不断进出无线覆盖范围，代表了一个巨大的TAM。</blockquote></p><p> Bagging a contract with Apple, even a partial one, or in partnership with another peer would increase the volume of new subscribers, which should in turn more than offset the current revenue impact from lower ARPU (Average Revenue per User).</p><p><blockquote>与苹果签订合同，即使是部分合同，或者与另一个同行合作，都会增加新用户的数量，这反过来应该会抵消当前ARPU（每用户平均收入）较低带来的收入影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The revenues</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall sales have gone down in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year as higher revenue generated from subscriber equipment related to SPOT (the largest segment) was offset by lower service revenues. For investors, SPOT is a GPS tracking device that uses Globalstar's satellite network to provide text messaging and GPS tracking.</p><p><blockquote>与去年相比，2021 年第二季度的整体销售额有所下降，因为与 SPOT（最大的细分市场）相关的用户设备产生的更高收入被较低的服务收入所抵消。对于投资者来说，SPOT是一款GPS跟踪设备，它使用Globalstar的卫星网络提供短信和GPS跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> Looking deeper, service revenue also decreased over the prior year's quarter due to fewer Duplex subscribers, with the decline expected to continue as Globalstar focuses resources on other revenue streams, like IoT-enabled devices. This is done in light of the shift in demand across the MSS (mobile satellite services) industry.</p><p><blockquote>更深层次地看，由于双工用户减少，服务收入也比上年季度有所下降，随着 Globalstar 将资源集中在其他收入流（例如支持物联网的设备）上，预计下降将继续。这样做是考虑到整个MSS（移动卫星服务）行业需求的变化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e8b74a670c927d2d84f1751cfd4a148\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"457\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, service revenues generated from commercial IoT subscribers increased 5% in the second quarter of 2021 driven by higher ARPU compared to the prior year's quarter. Additionally, IoT equipment sales were up significantly from the prior year period, which is a key indication of future service revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，在ARPU高于去年同期的推动下，2021年第二季度商业物联网用户产生的服务收入增长了5%。此外，物联网设备销售额较去年同期大幅增长，这是未来服务收入增长的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Thinking aloud, lower ARPU for SPOT also points to competition, with Globalstar competing aggressively on price in the industrial, governmental and consumer markets. Looking at satellite phones and communication gadgets, some of the competitors include Garmin's (GRMN) InReach, Iridium Go and the Thuraya X5-Touch, which is a dual-SIM Android smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>大声思考，SPOT 较低的 ARPU 也表明存在竞争，Globalstar 在工业、政府和消费市场的价格竞争非常激烈。从卫星电话和通信设备来看，一些竞争对手包括 Garmin (GRMN) 的 InReach、Iridium Go 和 Thuraya X5-Touch，后者是一款双卡 Android 智能手机。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the company has to cut prices with its “competitively-priced service plans being lower than historic rates”. Therefore, SPOT revenues should continue to decline in the near term, with higher volumes of activations not being able to offset the effects of lower ARPU on sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司不得不降价，其 “价格有竞争力的服务计划低于历史费率”。因此，短期内现货收入应继续下降，较高的激活量无法抵消ARPU下降对销售的影响。</blockquote></p><p> A comparison with rival Iridium shows contrasting revenue trends, with Globalstar being on a fluctuating trend since the end of 2019, coinciding with more competition.</p><p><blockquote>与竞争对手 Iridium 的比较显示了截然不同的收入趋势，Globalstar 自 2019 年底以来一直处于波动趋势，同时竞争也更加激烈。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be74c4a607fae52a664620ba3cf9d68\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Charts built through data from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：通过Seeking Alpha的数据构建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, adopting a cautionary posture, a change in the revenue-generating model geared towards IoT may take time to execute, whereby sales figures could drop further. This may in turn lead to missing topline expectations during the third quarter results, causing the share price to dip. For this matter, as I had pointed out in my previousthesis, one of the risks in investing in Globalstar is its dependence on the fortunes of the oil and gas industry.</p><p><blockquote>因此，采取谨慎态度，面向物联网的创收模式的改变可能需要时间来执行，因此销售数字可能会进一步下降。这反过来可能导致第三季度业绩未达营收预期，导致股价下跌。就此而言，正如我在之前的论文中指出的，投资 Globalstar 的风险之一是它对石油和天然气行业命运的依赖。</blockquote></p><p> On the positive side, the company continues to reduce leverage, with less than $50 million of net first lien principal outstanding at the end of Q2-2021.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的一面来看，该公司继续降低杠杆率，截至 2021 年第二季度末，未偿还的净第一留置权本金不到 5000 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, the company held $15.7 million and $51.0 million of cash and restricted cash respectively. Globalstar has received an additional $37.5 million in advance payment from a customer. The new payment is under \"substantially the same terms\" as a similar $37.5 million payment received on June 9. As with the other payment, Globalstar will use the new $37.5 million in proceeds to pay down indebtedness under its first-lien credit facility. In the last report, the company had $313.4 million in long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，该公司分别持有1570万美元和5100万美元的现金和受限制现金。Globalstar 已从客户处收到额外 3750 万美元预付款。新付款的条款与 6 月 9 日收到的类似 3750 万美元付款“基本相同”。与其他付款一样，Globalstar 将使用新的 3750 万美元收益来偿还其第一留置权信贷安排下的债务。在上一份报告中，该公司有3.134亿美元的长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations and key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值和主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As much as 16% of revenues were derived from IoT in the first six months of 2021, up from 14% in the same period last year. Now, in a market growing at 10.1% from 2019 to 2025, there is a lot of scope, but it will also depend on Globalstar's ability to meaningfully identify, pursue and close large deals. This should contribute to further diversify its revenue base away from full Duplex.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年前六个月，多达 16% 的收入来自物联网，高于去年同期的 14%。现在，在一个从2019年到2025年以10.1%的速度增长的市场中，有很大的空间，但这也将取决于Globalstar有意义地识别、追求和完成大型交易的能力。这将有助于其收入基础进一步多元化，摆脱完全复式。</blockquote></p><p> The company has also performed successful field testing for remote monitoring in the alternative energy industry, which it expects to materialize into future sales, but without mentioning a timeline.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在替代能源行业进行了成功的远程监控现场测试，预计这将转化为未来的销售，但没有提及时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, this is a loss-making company with losses from operations having increased by $0.6 million during the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year. Earnings per share which was -$0.01 for the second quarter is expected to be the same in the third one. This compares to positive figures for the communications sector, which boasts forward Price to Earnings multiples of 20x. This signifies no buying opportunity based on fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这是一家亏损公司，2021年第二季度的运营亏损比去年增加了60万美元。第二季度每股收益为-0.01美元，预计第三季度将持平。相比之下，通信行业的预期市盈率为 20 倍。这意味着基于基本面没有买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The only way Globalstar's loss status could change rapidly is commercialization of its n53 spectrum in the U.S. and other countries through presence in the iPhone ecosystem. A partnership with Apple will permit expansion of the satellite communications business, more effective utilization of network assets and enable Globalstar to leapfrog rivals. The fact that both companies work with Qualcomm is a positive for Globalstar.</p><p><blockquote>Globalstar的损失状况可能迅速改变的唯一方法是通过在iPhone生态系统中的存在，在美国和其他国家将其n53频谱商业化。与苹果的合作将扩大卫星通信业务，更有效地利用网络资产，并使Globalstar超越竞争对手。两家公司都与高通合作的事实对 Globalstar 来说是一个积极因素。</blockquote></p><p> This said, in absence of corporate announcements, Globalstar's stock has been surging amid ongoing speculation that its satellite communication technology may be included in Apple's new iPhone models, resulting in high Price to Sales multiples of over 2000% with respect to the communications sector.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在没有公司公告的情况下，Globalstar 的股价一直在飙升，因为人们一直猜测其卫星通信技术可能会包含在苹果的新款 iPhone 机型中，导致通信行业的市销率超过 2000%。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, for rational investors, it is preferable to wait for an update at the\"California Streaming\" event on September 14 before making a decision. In the meantime, the stock could drop to the $2 support level.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于理性的投资者来说，最好等待9月14日“加州流媒体”活动的更新后再做决定。与此同时，该股可能会跌至 2 美元的支撑位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454436-one-small-step-from-apple-could-mean-a-giant-leap-for-globalstar\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GSAT":"全球星"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454436-one-small-step-from-apple-could-mean-a-giant-leap-for-globalstar","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127461097","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt first sight, Globalstar is just one more satellite communications play.\nLooking deeper, its Band n53, which offers secure and reliable connectivity in any environment, is now included into Qualcomm's latest 5G modems for smartphones.\nBeing selected by Apple could mean a lot for Globalstar in its strategy to boost and diversify revenues, as well as change the current loss-making status.\nEven without Apple, the company merits interest, but only as a long-term beneficiary of IoT amid fierce competition and ability to reduce debt.\nValuations are sky-high in light of all the news hitting the market and, it is better to wait for some concrete news at Apple's event next week before investing.\n\nmetamorworks/iStock via Getty Images\nGlobalstar's (GSAT) shares soared 40% on August 30 after a report by MacRumors which cited expert Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities, about iPhone 13 using satellite connectivity so that users can make calls and texts in areas without cellular coverage.\nData by YCharts\nSoon afterwards, there were some further clarification by Bloomberg specifying that those features aren't due soon, but rather for future iPhones and should allow users to issue crash reports or text messages in areas without cellular coverage.\nNow, for Apple to even consider adding any satellite-based feature to its global brand would mean a lot for Globalstar, but first, for investors, I make sense of it all.\nReasons for Apple to choose Globalstar\nFor most of us, our experience with satellite-based internet has meant poor or sometimes erratic connectivity, but these were mostly with the geostationary satellites located far above the earth's surface. Instead, the opportunities offered by Globalstar's Low Earth Orbit (\"LEO\") satellites are much better, especially in areas that don't have 4G or 5G cellular coverage.\nTo have an idea of the potential of LEO satellites, one can take a glance at Elon Musk’s SpaceX's (SPACE). These have been deployed at locations in the U.S and the U.K. with several customers already having signed up to the service. Bench-marking by Speedtest showed download speeds of 97.23 Mbps,or far superior than those for other traditional providers. This speed was lower than the 115.22 Mbps median speed for fixed broadband providers, but makes sense for \"disadvantaged locations\" where telcos find it uneconomical to lay down additional fiber or expand cellular coverage.\nTherefore, given the enormous potential of the blending between the iPhone and satellite connectivity, news about Apple using Globalstar's network only for emergency purposes seems more aimed at not alarming its telco partners with whom it has been working since decades.\nThis blending is made possible by Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) inclusion of Globalstar's band n53 in its new 5G X65 modem. This should also expand the satellite operator's potential device ecosystem significantly to include smartphones, laptops and tablets.\nFor investors, the Snapdragon X65 will be released in the fall of 2022, most likely into next year’s iPhone. Better peak performance and other benefits should be there, but some will require carriers to upgrade their networks. On the other hand, with band n53, one can imagine the transformation of future mobility communications with a single operator plan anywhere in the world, without necessitating roaming, with no need to buy local SIM cards.\nGlobalstar's differentiation\nThus, this is not just about emergency calls or messaging and in a way, shows Globalstar's edge as a satellite network operator over telco's mobile network operations.\nNow, satellite communications is a huge industry, estimated at $56.01 billion in 2019 and expected to hit $99.58 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2027. Going deeper, there are several satellite operators and service providers, with Iridium (IRDM) and Orbcomm (ORBC). Other companies are involved in space technology like DISH Networks (DISH) and AT&T (T).\nHere, GlobalStar seems to be having some key strengths with respect to peers.\nAccording to the company's website, its strategically placed gateways offer local network access and national numbering plans as opposed to other LEO systems that require expensive international dialing for all calls. Also, Globalstar has a unique design which allows it to offer the most attractive local dialing and pricing plans to customers.\nPursuing further, Globalstar’s 24 ground stations also serve as a bridge between LEO satellites and traditional communications infrastructure on six continents, with coverage spanning across over 120 countries throughout the world. Furthermore, the second generation ground infrastructure is based on the Internet protocol multimedia subsystem (\"IMS\") protocol, which facilitates the use of IP (Internet Protocol) for packet communications over wireless or landline.\nSource: globalstar.com\nConsequently, Globalstar brings some attractive metrics for a behemoth like Apple looking to penetrate new markets. In this respect, according to a source, more than five billion mobile subscribers constantly move in and out of wireless coverage, representing a huge TAM.\nBagging a contract with Apple, even a partial one, or in partnership with another peer would increase the volume of new subscribers, which should in turn more than offset the current revenue impact from lower ARPU (Average Revenue per User).\nThe revenues\nOverall sales have gone down in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year as higher revenue generated from subscriber equipment related to SPOT (the largest segment) was offset by lower service revenues. For investors, SPOT is a GPS tracking device that uses Globalstar's satellite network to provide text messaging and GPS tracking.\nLooking deeper, service revenue also decreased over the prior year's quarter due to fewer Duplex subscribers, with the decline expected to continue as Globalstar focuses resources on other revenue streams, like IoT-enabled devices. This is done in light of the shift in demand across the MSS (mobile satellite services) industry.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nInterestingly, service revenues generated from commercial IoT subscribers increased 5% in the second quarter of 2021 driven by higher ARPU compared to the prior year's quarter. Additionally, IoT equipment sales were up significantly from the prior year period, which is a key indication of future service revenue growth.\nThinking aloud, lower ARPU for SPOT also points to competition, with Globalstar competing aggressively on price in the industrial, governmental and consumer markets. Looking at satellite phones and communication gadgets, some of the competitors include Garmin's (GRMN) InReach, Iridium Go and the Thuraya X5-Touch, which is a dual-SIM Android smartphone.\nAs a result, the company has to cut prices with its “competitively-priced service plans being lower than historic rates”. Therefore, SPOT revenues should continue to decline in the near term, with higher volumes of activations not being able to offset the effects of lower ARPU on sales.\nA comparison with rival Iridium shows contrasting revenue trends, with Globalstar being on a fluctuating trend since the end of 2019, coinciding with more competition.\nSource: Charts built through data from Seeking Alpha.\nTherefore, adopting a cautionary posture, a change in the revenue-generating model geared towards IoT may take time to execute, whereby sales figures could drop further. This may in turn lead to missing topline expectations during the third quarter results, causing the share price to dip. For this matter, as I had pointed out in my previousthesis, one of the risks in investing in Globalstar is its dependence on the fortunes of the oil and gas industry.\nOn the positive side, the company continues to reduce leverage, with less than $50 million of net first lien principal outstanding at the end of Q2-2021.\nAs of June 30, 2021, the company held $15.7 million and $51.0 million of cash and restricted cash respectively. Globalstar has received an additional $37.5 million in advance payment from a customer. The new payment is under \"substantially the same terms\" as a similar $37.5 million payment received on June 9. As with the other payment, Globalstar will use the new $37.5 million in proceeds to pay down indebtedness under its first-lien credit facility. In the last report, the company had $313.4 million in long-term debt.\nValuations and key takeaways\nAs much as 16% of revenues were derived from IoT in the first six months of 2021, up from 14% in the same period last year. Now, in a market growing at 10.1% from 2019 to 2025, there is a lot of scope, but it will also depend on Globalstar's ability to meaningfully identify, pursue and close large deals. This should contribute to further diversify its revenue base away from full Duplex.\nThe company has also performed successful field testing for remote monitoring in the alternative energy industry, which it expects to materialize into future sales, but without mentioning a timeline.\nFurthermore, this is a loss-making company with losses from operations having increased by $0.6 million during the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year. Earnings per share which was -$0.01 for the second quarter is expected to be the same in the third one. This compares to positive figures for the communications sector, which boasts forward Price to Earnings multiples of 20x. This signifies no buying opportunity based on fundamentals.\nThe only way Globalstar's loss status could change rapidly is commercialization of its n53 spectrum in the U.S. and other countries through presence in the iPhone ecosystem. A partnership with Apple will permit expansion of the satellite communications business, more effective utilization of network assets and enable Globalstar to leapfrog rivals. The fact that both companies work with Qualcomm is a positive for Globalstar.\nThis said, in absence of corporate announcements, Globalstar's stock has been surging amid ongoing speculation that its satellite communication technology may be included in Apple's new iPhone models, resulting in high Price to Sales multiples of over 2000% with respect to the communications sector.\nConsequently, for rational investors, it is preferable to wait for an update at the\"California Streaming\" event on September 14 before making a decision. In the meantime, the stock could drop to the $2 support level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GSAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1177,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/881857077"}
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