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2021-09-11

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How Will The Debt Limit Drama Play Out: Here Are The Two Scenarios<blockquote>债务限额大戏将如何上演：有两种情况</blockquote>

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This year, as we get closer to the \"drop dead date\" (which hasn't yet been determined) the markets will start pricing in distortions.\"<blockquote>Curvature的回购专家Scott Skyrm今天上午在谈到一个可能很快成为债券市场一大担忧的话题——10月份的死限最后期限——时表示，“在过去几年里，国会总是在‘技术性违约’的可能性出现之前达成妥协。”违约“悄悄进入市场。今年，随着我们越来越接近‘死亡日期’（尚未确定），市场将开始对扭曲进行定价。”</blockquote> To this we can add that as we noted yesterday, distortions in the bond market are already clearly emerging, with the spread between October and November -this is where the market estimates the \"drop dead date\" will take place- T-Bills rising fast:<blockquote>对此，我们可以补充一点，正如我们昨天指出的，债券市场的扭曲已经明显显现，10月和11月之间的利差-这是市场估计“死亡日期”将发生的地方-国库券快速上涨：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18baa5bfc2f4fcada29a0e71d4887b7e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The next chart shows that the T-Bill curve is clearly moving wider around the early November timeframe.<blockquote>下图显示，国库券曲线在11月初左右明显变宽。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e688a9eb195944fe7e906a13a6319b8f\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"581\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As a reminder, yesterday Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders this morning indicating that the the Treasury will exhaust its cash and extraordinary measures \"during the month of October\". This slightly sooner than the \"October or November\" timing that the Congressional Budget Office had estimated in a report in late July.<blockquote>提醒一下，昨天财政部长耶伦今天上午致信国会领导人，表示财政部将在“10月份”耗尽现金和非常措施。这比国会预算办公室在7月底的一份报告中估计的“10月或11月”时间略早。</blockquote> So how will the upcoming debt limit drama play out?According to Goldman, there are several possible scenarios from here:<blockquote>那么即将上演的限债大戏将如何上演？根据高盛的说法，这里有几种可能的情况：</blockquote> The most likely scenario is that Democratic leaders will attach a debt limit suspension to upcoming spending legislation to keep the federal government open past the end of the fiscal year (a \"continuing resolution\") and to provide emergency disaster relief funding related to the fires in the Western US and storm damage in the East and South.&nbsp;As 46 Senate Republicans have indicated they will block a debt limit increase, there is a good chance this strategy will not succeed.That said, passage of short-term debt limit might be possible as several Republican senators represent states affected by recent disasters.&nbsp; One option Republicans might consider would be to vote against the bill but decline to filibuster it, allowing it to pass with only 51 votes in the Senate. This would likely require unanimous Democratic support in that chamber, which is possible but not certain.<blockquote>最有可能的情况是，民主党领导人将在即将到来的支出立法中附加暂停债务限额，以保持联邦政府在本财年结束后的开放（“持续决议”），并提供与美国西部火灾以及东部和南部风暴破坏相关的紧急救灾资金。由于46名参议院共和党人表示他们将阻止提高债务上限，这一策略很有可能不会成功。也就是说，短期债务上限的通过可能是可能的，因为几名共和党参议员代表了最近受灾难影响的州。共和党人可能考虑的一个选择是投票反对该法案，但拒绝阻挠该法案，允许该法案在参议院仅以51票通过。这可能需要众议院民主党人的一致支持，这是可能的，但不确定。</blockquote> If Senate Republicans block the spending bill later this month,Democratic leaders would then need to decide whether to force the issue and risk a partial federal government shutdown, or to remove the debt limit suspension from the spending bill.If lawmakers end in a stalemate, a government shutdown might follow, though Goldman does not see this as the base case.<blockquote>如果参议院共和党人本月晚些时候阻止这项支出法案，然后，民主党领导人需要决定是强行解决这个问题并冒着联邦政府部分关闭的风险，还是从支出法案中取消债务限额暂停。如果立法者陷入僵局，政府可能会关闭，尽管高盛并不认为这是基本情况。</blockquote> If they are unable to raise the debt limit as part of a spending bill, they might consider using the reconciliation process to pass it with only 51 votes.However, this faces two challenges:<blockquote>如果他们无法将提高债务上限作为支出法案的一部分，他们可能会考虑利用和解程序仅以51票通过该法案。然而，这面临两个挑战：</blockquote> <ul> <li>First, it is unclear whether all Senate Democrats would vote for a revised budget resolution that increases the debt limit by several trillion dollars. if Democrats use the reconciliation process, Senate rules would probably allow them only to raise the debt limit by a specific dollar figure,which would lead to more politically problematic headlines, rather than suspend it for a period of time, which has become the norm over the last decade as it does not lead to a specific dollar amount at the time of passage.</li> <li>Second, the current reconciliation process to pass as much as $3.5 trillion in new spending is already underway, with House committees already in the process of considering and passing their segments of the bill in committee. Revising the budget resolution, which governs that process, could interfere with consideration of that legislation, and would likely take at least a couple of weeks, if not longer.If Democrats wait until Sep. 30 to test support for a debt limit increase as part of the spending bill, they might not have sufficient time to go through all of the procedures necessary to revise the resolution before the debt limit deadline.</li> </ul> In other words, as on every prior occasion when the debt limit was raised or extended in the last possible minute, this time is unlikely to be an exception - after all the alternative is a catastrophic outcome for the US. However, the longer Congress waits the more challenging the debt limit process becomes, and could be thrown for a loop if one or more holdouts block the process in the last minute, unleashing chaos in the market if only to provoke politicians into action. As we get closer to the D-Day, keep an eye on the spread in T-Bills for an indication of just how nervous the market is becoming.<blockquote><ul><li>首先，不清楚是否所有参议院民主党人都会投票支持一项将债务上限提高数万亿美元的修订预算决议如果民主党使用和解程序，参议院的规则可能只允许他们将债务上限提高一个特定的美元数字，这将导致更多政治问题的头条新闻，而不是暂停一段时间，这在过去十年中已成为常态，因为它在通过时不会导致具体的美元金额.</li><li>其次，目前通过多达3.5万亿美元新支出的和解程序已经在进行中，众议院各委员会已经在委员会审议和通过该法案的各个部分修订管理这一进程的预算决议可能会干扰对这一立法的审议，可能至少需要几个星期，如果不是更长的话。如果民主党人等到9月30日才测试对提高债务上限作为支出法案一部分的支持，他们可能没有足够的时间在债务上限截止日期前完成修改决议所需的所有程序。</li></ul>换句话说，就像以往每一次在最后一刻提高或延长债务上限的情况一样，这一次不太可能是个例外——毕竟，另一种选择对美国来说是灾难性的结果。然而，国会等待的时间越长，债务限额程序就变得越具有挑战性，如果一个或多个顽固分子在最后一刻阻止这一进程，即使只是为了激怒政客采取行动，也可能会引发市场混乱。随着诺曼底登陆日的临近，请密切关注国库券的利差，以了解市场变得多么紧张。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Will The Debt Limit Drama Play Out: Here Are The Two Scenarios<blockquote>债务限额大戏将如何上演：有两种情况</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Will The Debt Limit Drama Play Out: Here Are The Two Scenarios<blockquote>债务限额大戏将如何上演：有两种情况</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-10 16:41\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAddressing a topic that could soon become a big concern for the bond market - the October dead limit deadline -&nbsp; Curvature's repo expert Scott Skyrmsaid this morningthat, \"for the past several years, Congress always reached a compromise before the possibility of a \"technical default\" creeped into the markets. This year, as we get closer to the \"drop dead date\" (which hasn't yet been determined) the markets will start pricing in distortions.\"<blockquote>Curvature的回购专家Scott Skyrm今天上午在谈到一个可能很快成为债券市场一大担忧的话题——10月份的死限最后期限——时表示，“在过去几年里，国会总是在‘技术性违约’的可能性出现之前达成妥协。”违约“悄悄进入市场。今年，随着我们越来越接近‘死亡日期’（尚未确定），市场将开始对扭曲进行定价。”</blockquote> To this we can add that as we noted yesterday, distortions in the bond market are already clearly emerging, with the spread between October and November -this is where the market estimates the \"drop dead date\" will take place- T-Bills rising fast:<blockquote>对此，我们可以补充一点，正如我们昨天指出的，债券市场的扭曲已经明显显现，10月和11月之间的利差-这是市场估计“死亡日期”将发生的地方-国库券快速上涨：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18baa5bfc2f4fcada29a0e71d4887b7e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The next chart shows that the T-Bill curve is clearly moving wider around the early November timeframe.<blockquote>下图显示，国库券曲线在11月初左右明显变宽。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e688a9eb195944fe7e906a13a6319b8f\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"581\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As a reminder, yesterday Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders this morning indicating that the the Treasury will exhaust its cash and extraordinary measures \"during the month of October\". This slightly sooner than the \"October or November\" timing that the Congressional Budget Office had estimated in a report in late July.<blockquote>提醒一下，昨天财政部长耶伦今天上午致信国会领导人，表示财政部将在“10月份”耗尽现金和非常措施。这比国会预算办公室在7月底的一份报告中估计的“10月或11月”时间略早。</blockquote> So how will the upcoming debt limit drama play out?According to Goldman, there are several possible scenarios from here:<blockquote>那么即将上演的限债大戏将如何上演？根据高盛的说法，这里有几种可能的情况：</blockquote> The most likely scenario is that Democratic leaders will attach a debt limit suspension to upcoming spending legislation to keep the federal government open past the end of the fiscal year (a \"continuing resolution\") and to provide emergency disaster relief funding related to the fires in the Western US and storm damage in the East and South.&nbsp;As 46 Senate Republicans have indicated they will block a debt limit increase, there is a good chance this strategy will not succeed.That said, passage of short-term debt limit might be possible as several Republican senators represent states affected by recent disasters.&nbsp; One option Republicans might consider would be to vote against the bill but decline to filibuster it, allowing it to pass with only 51 votes in the Senate. This would likely require unanimous Democratic support in that chamber, which is possible but not certain.<blockquote>最有可能的情况是，民主党领导人将在即将到来的支出立法中附加暂停债务限额，以保持联邦政府在本财年结束后的开放（“持续决议”），并提供与美国西部火灾以及东部和南部风暴破坏相关的紧急救灾资金。由于46名参议院共和党人表示他们将阻止提高债务上限，这一策略很有可能不会成功。也就是说，短期债务上限的通过可能是可能的，因为几名共和党参议员代表了最近受灾难影响的州。共和党人可能考虑的一个选择是投票反对该法案，但拒绝阻挠该法案，允许该法案在参议院仅以51票通过。这可能需要众议院民主党人的一致支持，这是可能的，但不确定。</blockquote> If Senate Republicans block the spending bill later this month,Democratic leaders would then need to decide whether to force the issue and risk a partial federal government shutdown, or to remove the debt limit suspension from the spending bill.If lawmakers end in a stalemate, a government shutdown might follow, though Goldman does not see this as the base case.<blockquote>如果参议院共和党人本月晚些时候阻止这项支出法案，然后，民主党领导人需要决定是强行解决这个问题并冒着联邦政府部分关闭的风险，还是从支出法案中取消债务限额暂停。如果立法者陷入僵局，政府可能会关闭，尽管高盛并不认为这是基本情况。</blockquote> If they are unable to raise the debt limit as part of a spending bill, they might consider using the reconciliation process to pass it with only 51 votes.However, this faces two challenges:<blockquote>如果他们无法将提高债务上限作为支出法案的一部分，他们可能会考虑利用和解程序仅以51票通过该法案。然而，这面临两个挑战：</blockquote> <ul> <li>First, it is unclear whether all Senate Democrats would vote for a revised budget resolution that increases the debt limit by several trillion dollars. if Democrats use the reconciliation process, Senate rules would probably allow them only to raise the debt limit by a specific dollar figure,which would lead to more politically problematic headlines, rather than suspend it for a period of time, which has become the norm over the last decade as it does not lead to a specific dollar amount at the time of passage.</li> <li>Second, the current reconciliation process to pass as much as $3.5 trillion in new spending is already underway, with House committees already in the process of considering and passing their segments of the bill in committee. Revising the budget resolution, which governs that process, could interfere with consideration of that legislation, and would likely take at least a couple of weeks, if not longer.If Democrats wait until Sep. 30 to test support for a debt limit increase as part of the spending bill, they might not have sufficient time to go through all of the procedures necessary to revise the resolution before the debt limit deadline.</li> </ul> In other words, as on every prior occasion when the debt limit was raised or extended in the last possible minute, this time is unlikely to be an exception - after all the alternative is a catastrophic outcome for the US. However, the longer Congress waits the more challenging the debt limit process becomes, and could be thrown for a loop if one or more holdouts block the process in the last minute, unleashing chaos in the market if only to provoke politicians into action. As we get closer to the D-Day, keep an eye on the spread in T-Bills for an indication of just how nervous the market is becoming.<blockquote><ul><li>首先，不清楚是否所有参议院民主党人都会投票支持一项将债务上限提高数万亿美元的修订预算决议如果民主党使用和解程序，参议院的规则可能只允许他们将债务上限提高一个特定的美元数字，这将导致更多政治问题的头条新闻，而不是暂停一段时间，这在过去十年中已成为常态，因为它在通过时不会导致具体的美元金额.</li><li>其次，目前通过多达3.5万亿美元新支出的和解程序已经在进行中，众议院各委员会已经在委员会审议和通过该法案的各个部分修订管理这一进程的预算决议可能会干扰对这一立法的审议，可能至少需要几个星期，如果不是更长的话。如果民主党人等到9月30日才测试对提高债务上限作为支出法案一部分的支持，他们可能没有足够的时间在债务上限截止日期前完成修改决议所需的所有程序。</li></ul>换句话说，就像以往每一次在最后一刻提高或延长债务上限的情况一样，这一次不太可能是个例外——毕竟，另一种选择对美国来说是灾难性的结果。然而，国会等待的时间越长，债务限额程序就变得越具有挑战性，如果一个或多个顽固分子在最后一刻阻止这一进程，即使只是为了激怒政客采取行动，也可能会引发市场混乱。随着诺曼底登陆日的临近，请密切关注国库券的利差，以了解市场变得多么紧张。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-will-debt-limit-drama-play-out-here-are-two-scenarios\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-will-debt-limit-drama-play-out-here-are-two-scenarios","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101890813","content_text":"Addressing a topic that could soon become a big concern for the bond market - the October dead limit deadline -  Curvature's repo expert Scott Skyrmsaid this morningthat, \"for the past several years, Congress always reached a compromise before the possibility of a \"technical default\" creeped into the markets. This year, as we get closer to the \"drop dead date\" (which hasn't yet been determined) the markets will start pricing in distortions.\"\nTo this we can add that as we noted yesterday, distortions in the bond market are already clearly emerging, with the spread between October and November -this is where the market estimates the \"drop dead date\" will take place- T-Bills rising fast:\nThe next chart shows that the T-Bill curve is clearly moving wider around the early November timeframe.\nAs a reminder, yesterday Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders this morning indicating that the the Treasury will exhaust its cash and extraordinary measures \"during the month of October\". This slightly sooner than the \"October or November\" timing that the Congressional Budget Office had estimated in a report in late July.\nSo how will the upcoming debt limit drama play out?According to Goldman, there are several possible scenarios from here:\nThe most likely scenario is that Democratic leaders will attach a debt limit suspension to upcoming spending legislation to keep the federal government open past the end of the fiscal year (a \"continuing resolution\") and to provide emergency disaster relief funding related to the fires in the Western US and storm damage in the East and South. As 46 Senate Republicans have indicated they will block a debt limit increase, there is a good chance this strategy will not succeed.That said, passage of short-term debt limit might be possible as several Republican senators represent states affected by recent disasters.  One option Republicans might consider would be to vote against the bill but decline to filibuster it, allowing it to pass with only 51 votes in the Senate. This would likely require unanimous Democratic support in that chamber, which is possible but not certain.\nIf Senate Republicans block the spending bill later this month,Democratic leaders would then need to decide whether to force the issue and risk a partial federal government shutdown, or to remove the debt limit suspension from the spending bill.If lawmakers end in a stalemate, a government shutdown might follow, though Goldman does not see this as the base case.\nIf they are unable to raise the debt limit as part of a spending bill, they might consider using the reconciliation process to pass it with only 51 votes.However, this faces two challenges:\n\nFirst, it is unclear whether all Senate Democrats would vote for a revised budget resolution that increases the debt limit by several trillion dollars. if Democrats use the reconciliation process, Senate rules would probably allow them only to raise the debt limit by a specific dollar figure,which would lead to more politically problematic headlines, rather than suspend it for a period of time, which has become the norm over the last decade as it does not lead to a specific dollar amount at the time of passage.\nSecond, the current reconciliation process to pass as much as $3.5 trillion in new spending is already underway, with House committees already in the process of considering and passing their segments of the bill in committee. Revising the budget resolution, which governs that process, could interfere with consideration of that legislation, and would likely take at least a couple of weeks, if not longer.If Democrats wait until Sep. 30 to test support for a debt limit increase as part of the spending bill, they might not have sufficient time to go through all of the procedures necessary to revise the resolution before the debt limit deadline.\n\nIn other words, as on every prior occasion when the debt limit was raised or extended in the last possible minute, this time is unlikely to be an exception - after all the alternative is a catastrophic outcome for the US. However, the longer Congress waits the more challenging the debt limit process becomes, and could be thrown for a loop if one or more holdouts block the process in the last minute, unleashing chaos in the market if only to provoke politicians into action. As we get closer to the D-Day, keep an eye on the spread in T-Bills for an indication of just how nervous the market is becoming.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/881661694"}