ThECROW
2021-09-11
[强]
Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":881355307,"tweetId":"881355307","gmtCreate":1631305717409,"gmtModify":1631889101748,"author":{"id":3583650394724849,"idStr":"3583650394724849","authorId":3583650394724849,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[强] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[强] </span></p></body></html>","text":"[强]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881355307","repostId":1148605188,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148605188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631265518,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148605188?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148605188","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li> <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li> <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li> <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li> <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li> <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li> <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li> <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li> <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li> <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li> <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li> <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li> <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li> <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li> <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li> <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li> <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li> <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li> <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li> <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li> <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li> <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li> <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li> <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li> <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li> <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li> <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01611":"新火科技控股","01499":"欧科云链","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148605188","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.\nIf you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\n\nYesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.\nBitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.\nMarkets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’\nEdwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.\nLeverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.\nSo, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:\nSo, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.\nFill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.\nCrashing is what markets do.\nTherefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\nStrategy 1) What not to do\n\nDo not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.\nDo not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.\nDo not hold positions for no good reason.\nBe prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one\nIf you arecertaina crash is underway, do not hold and hope,sell.\n\nStrategy 2) What to do\n\nNever stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.\nBuy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.\nIf you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.\n\nA crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.\nWhat next?\nHere is the chart:\nI’m still a bearbutI think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.\nHowever, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.\nThe above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.\nWhat to do?\nThe golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.\nSpecifically:\n\nIf you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.\nIf you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions\nIf you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.\nIf you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.\nIf you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).\nIf you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.\n\nWhat am I doing?\n‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.\nBitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.\nLong term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9,"01611":0.9,"01499":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1717,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/881355307"}
精彩评论