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2021-09-07

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Melt-Up Into Mid-Month VIX Reversal... Again?<blockquote>融化成月中VIX反转...再一次？</blockquote>

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Again?<blockquote>融化成月中VIX反转...再一次？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107454044","media":"zerohedge","summary":"What Does A Melt-Up Look Like?\nCurrently, the stock-bond ratio is 3-standard deviations above the 3-","content":"What Does A Melt-Up Look Like?<blockquote>融化是什么样子的？</blockquote> Currently, the stock-bond ratio is 3-standard deviations above the 3-year moving average. The angle and duration of the ascent have all the earmarks of a&nbsp;“melt-up.”<blockquote>目前，股债比高于3年移动平均线3个标准差。上升的角度和持续时间具有a的所有特征“融化。”</blockquote> “A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the markets,&nbsp; driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. &nbsp;Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed.&nbsp; Melt-ups often precede meltdowns. ” – Investopedia <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fda8ce689ac1adbd7c8084614a4697\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote>“融化是市场持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，而不是经济的根本改善。熔化创造的收益被认为是市场最终走向的不可靠迹象。熔化通常先于熔化。”-投资百科</blockquote> Investors Really Are “All In”<blockquote>投资者真的“全力以赴”</blockquote> The&nbsp;“melt-up,”&nbsp;as noted, is driven by investors piling into equities under the assumption they are missing out.<blockquote>The“融化。”如前所述，这是由投资者在认为自己错过了机会的情况下涌入股票所推动的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c88a43c47c5a4f3f78e18a1c24bd65\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Will the mid-month VIX pattern hold yet again?<blockquote>月中VIX模式会再次持续吗？</blockquote> The graph of the VIX (volatility) below highlights a fairly reliable pattern that has been occurring mid-month for the last year. As shown, VIX tends to decline into the middle part of most months, rally sharply for a few days, and head lower again. The pattern has been especially pronounced the last three months.&nbsp; One likely cause is the combination of mid-month options expiration and low volumes. The volume of trades needed to cover and roll options contracts may be enough to push volatility higher at these times.<blockquote>下面的VIX（波动性）图表突出了去年月中出现的一种相当可靠的模式。如图所示，VIX往往会在大多数月份的中期下降，在几天内大幅反弹，然后再次走低。这种模式在过去三个月尤为明显。一个可能的原因是月中期权到期和低交易量的结合。此时，回补和展期期权合约所需的交易量可能足以推高波动性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed951e2517dd4bd29a1813dd037bbd35\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">September is thus far looking to repeat the pattern.A nice short-term trade may again occur if VIX approaches the 16.00-16.50 range later next week. 16 has been the recent floor so if you do get long the VIX and try to take advantage of the pattern, keep risk targets in place below 16.<blockquote>到目前为止，9月份有望重复这种模式。如果VIX下周晚些时候接近16.00-16.50区间，可能会再次出现不错的短期交易。16是最近的底部，因此如果您确实做多VIX并试图利用该模式，请将风险目标保持在16以下。</blockquote> Deteriorating Optimism<blockquote>乐观情绪恶化</blockquote> The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to decline. Any reading below zero denotes economists’ forecasts are too optimistic.<blockquote>花旗经济意外指数继续下降。任何低于零的读数都表明经济学家的预测过于乐观。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/172f447eb7dd88172fee22f8e5b466f3\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The recent string of weaker economic data has caught them off guard. Despite the implications of weakening economic growth, the positive correlation between the graph and stock prices has significantly deteriorated over the last year.<blockquote>最近一系列疲软的经济数据让他们措手不及。尽管存在经济增长疲软的影响，但图表与股价之间的正相关性在过去一年中显着恶化。</blockquote> Taxing Stock Buybacks<blockquote>对股票回购征税</blockquote> An idea floating around Democrat circles in Washington is taxing stock buybacks or treating them as taxable dividends. Is it likely? Probably not, given the massive lobbying efforts of corporate America. However, if they are able to pass such legislation, a key driver of stock prices may have a limited effect going forward. While we think the odds of passage are low, this bears watching closely.<blockquote>华盛顿民主党圈子里流传的一个想法是对股票回购征税或将其视为应税股息。有可能吗？考虑到美国企业界的大规模游说努力，可能不会。然而，如果他们能够通过此类立法，股价的关键驱动因素未来的影响可能有限。虽然我们认为通过的几率很低，但这值得密切关注。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Melt-Up Into Mid-Month VIX Reversal... Again?<blockquote>融化成月中VIX反转...再一次？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMelt-Up Into Mid-Month VIX Reversal... Again?<blockquote>融化成月中VIX反转...再一次？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-07 20:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhat Does A Melt-Up Look Like?<blockquote>融化是什么样子的？</blockquote> Currently, the stock-bond ratio is 3-standard deviations above the 3-year moving average. The angle and duration of the ascent have all the earmarks of a&nbsp;“melt-up.”<blockquote>目前，股债比高于3年移动平均线3个标准差。上升的角度和持续时间具有a的所有特征“融化。”</blockquote> “A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the markets,&nbsp; driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. &nbsp;Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed.&nbsp; Melt-ups often precede meltdowns. ” – Investopedia <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fda8ce689ac1adbd7c8084614a4697\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote>“融化是市场持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，而不是经济的根本改善。熔化创造的收益被认为是市场最终走向的不可靠迹象。熔化通常先于熔化。”-投资百科</blockquote> Investors Really Are “All In”<blockquote>投资者真的“全力以赴”</blockquote> The&nbsp;“melt-up,”&nbsp;as noted, is driven by investors piling into equities under the assumption they are missing out.<blockquote>The“融化。”如前所述，这是由投资者在认为自己错过了机会的情况下涌入股票所推动的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c88a43c47c5a4f3f78e18a1c24bd65\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Will the mid-month VIX pattern hold yet again?<blockquote>月中VIX模式会再次持续吗？</blockquote> The graph of the VIX (volatility) below highlights a fairly reliable pattern that has been occurring mid-month for the last year. As shown, VIX tends to decline into the middle part of most months, rally sharply for a few days, and head lower again. The pattern has been especially pronounced the last three months.&nbsp; One likely cause is the combination of mid-month options expiration and low volumes. The volume of trades needed to cover and roll options contracts may be enough to push volatility higher at these times.<blockquote>下面的VIX（波动性）图表突出了去年月中出现的一种相当可靠的模式。如图所示，VIX往往会在大多数月份的中期下降，在几天内大幅反弹，然后再次走低。这种模式在过去三个月尤为明显。一个可能的原因是月中期权到期和低交易量的结合。此时，回补和展期期权合约所需的交易量可能足以推高波动性。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed951e2517dd4bd29a1813dd037bbd35\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">September is thus far looking to repeat the pattern.A nice short-term trade may again occur if VIX approaches the 16.00-16.50 range later next week. 16 has been the recent floor so if you do get long the VIX and try to take advantage of the pattern, keep risk targets in place below 16.<blockquote>到目前为止，9月份有望重复这种模式。如果VIX下周晚些时候接近16.00-16.50区间，可能会再次出现不错的短期交易。16是最近的底部，因此如果您确实做多VIX并试图利用该模式，请将风险目标保持在16以下。</blockquote> Deteriorating Optimism<blockquote>乐观情绪恶化</blockquote> The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to decline. Any reading below zero denotes economists’ forecasts are too optimistic.<blockquote>花旗经济意外指数继续下降。任何低于零的读数都表明经济学家的预测过于乐观。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/172f447eb7dd88172fee22f8e5b466f3\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The recent string of weaker economic data has caught them off guard. Despite the implications of weakening economic growth, the positive correlation between the graph and stock prices has significantly deteriorated over the last year.<blockquote>最近一系列疲软的经济数据让他们措手不及。尽管存在经济增长疲软的影响，但图表与股价之间的正相关性在过去一年中显着恶化。</blockquote> Taxing Stock Buybacks<blockquote>对股票回购征税</blockquote> An idea floating around Democrat circles in Washington is taxing stock buybacks or treating them as taxable dividends. Is it likely? Probably not, given the massive lobbying efforts of corporate America. However, if they are able to pass such legislation, a key driver of stock prices may have a limited effect going forward. While we think the odds of passage are low, this bears watching closely.<blockquote>华盛顿民主党圈子里流传的一个想法是对股票回购征税或将其视为应税股息。有可能吗？考虑到美国企业界的大规模游说努力，可能不会。然而，如果他们能够通过此类立法，股价的关键驱动因素未来的影响可能有限。虽然我们认为通过的几率很低，但这值得密切关注。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/melt-mid-month-vix-reversal-again?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/melt-mid-month-vix-reversal-again?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107454044","content_text":"What Does A Melt-Up Look Like?\nCurrently, the stock-bond ratio is 3-standard deviations above the 3-year moving average. The angle and duration of the ascent have all the earmarks of a “melt-up.”\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the markets, \ndriven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.\n Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed. \nMelt-ups often precede meltdowns.\n” – Investopedia\n\n\nInvestors Really Are “All In”\nThe “melt-up,” as noted, is driven by investors piling into equities under the assumption they are missing out.\n\nWill the mid-month VIX pattern hold yet again?\nThe graph of the VIX (volatility) below highlights a fairly reliable pattern that has been occurring mid-month for the last year. As shown, VIX tends to decline into the middle part of most months, rally sharply for a few days, and head lower again. The pattern has been especially pronounced the last three months.  One likely cause is the combination of mid-month options expiration and low volumes. The volume of trades needed to cover and roll options contracts may be enough to push volatility higher at these times.\nSeptember is thus far looking to repeat the pattern.A nice short-term trade may again occur if VIX approaches the 16.00-16.50 range later next week. 16 has been the recent floor so if you do get long the VIX and try to take advantage of the pattern, keep risk targets in place below 16.\nDeteriorating Optimism\nThe Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to decline. Any reading below zero denotes economists’ forecasts are too optimistic.\nThe recent string of weaker economic data has caught them off guard. Despite the implications of weakening economic growth, the positive correlation between the graph and stock prices has significantly deteriorated over the last year.\nTaxing Stock Buybacks\nAn idea floating around Democrat circles in Washington is taxing stock buybacks or treating them as taxable dividends. Is it likely? Probably not, given the massive lobbying efforts of corporate America. However, if they are able to pass such legislation, a key driver of stock prices may have a limited effect going forward. While we think the odds of passage are low, this bears watching closely.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/880337064"}