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2021-09-07

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Thinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":880060586,"tweetId":"880060586","gmtCreate":1631000714645,"gmtModify":1632904679839,"author":{"id":4093183175808170,"idStr":"4093183175808170","authorId":4093183175808170,"authorIdStr":"4093183175808170","name":"AdwinLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dfc22cc91f1bec625931b62ea175961","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Cool</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Cool</body></html>","text":"Cool","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880060586","repostId":1167423848,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167423848","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631000207,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167423848?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Thinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167423848","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nKO looks like it wants to break out.\nBut I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamen","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>KO looks like it wants to break out.</li> <li>But I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamental headwinds.</li> <li>With the valuation stretched, avoid KO.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebefc82af0f236beb1dcd9de3c554471\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>KO看起来想爆发。</li><li>但鉴于一些基本面的阻力，我现在持怀疑态度。</li><li>估值捉襟见肘，避免KO。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Beverage companies are not always the most glamorous stocks to buy, but over time, they tend to do well. Steady demand from consumers in both at-home and away-from-home channels generally fuels not only reliable growth but some measure of recession resistance as well.<blockquote>饮料公司并不总是最值得购买的股票，但随着时间的推移，它们往往表现良好。消费者在家和外出渠道的稳定需求通常不仅推动了可靠的增长，还在一定程度上抵御衰退。</blockquote> Bubbly beverage OG&nbsp;Coca-Cola(KO) is just such a stock that has paid rising dividends longer than most of us have been on this earth, so it fits nicely into the “recession resistant” and “steady growth” categories to be sure.<blockquote>起泡饮料和可口可乐(KO) 就是这样一只股票，它派发股息的时间比我们大多数人在地球上的时间还要长，因此它非常适合 “抗衰退 ”和 “稳定增长 ”类别。</blockquote> But does that make the stock a buy today? In a world of elevated valuations and low yields, Coca-Cola today seems to fit the bill on both of those accounts as well, and given this, I’m not certain it’s a good use of your capital.<blockquote>但这是否意味着该股今天值得买入呢？在一个估值高、收益率低的世界里，如今的可口可乐似乎在这两个方面都符合要求，有鉴于此，我不确定这是否能很好地利用你的资本。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bbebb19e477d4dc2dc1fced28dd1ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: StockCharts<blockquote>资料来源：股票图表</blockquote> We’ll start as we always do with a look at the chart to get a glimpse of where we are today. First, the stock broke out over its prior consolidation earlier this year after being pummeled down to $47 back in January. The rally took the stock up about ten bucks in a virtually straight line, which is a huge move for a stock like this. That rally was quite strong, but proved to be unsustainable, as evidenced by the momentum indicators.<blockquote>我们将一如既往地从图表开始，以了解我们今天的处境。首先，该股在 1 月份跌至 47 美元后，突破了今年早些时候的盘整。这次反弹使该股几乎直线上涨了约 10 美元，对于这样的股票来说，这是一个巨大的波动。这种反弹相当强劲，但事实证明是不可持续的，动量指标就证明了这一点。</blockquote> The PPO made its high in April, months before the share price did, and even in the most recent stage of the rally, the PPO was actually declining fairly sharply, indicating that there was a meaningful negative divergence. That’s generally what the end of a rally looks like; the bulls are still fighting but not nearly as hard.<blockquote>PPO 在 4 月份达到高点，比股价早几个月，即使在上涨的最近阶段，PPO 实际上也在大幅下跌，表明存在有意义的负背离。这通常是反弹结束的样子；公牛队仍在战斗，但没有那么激烈。</blockquote> However, the PPO recently successfully tested centerline support (the blue oval) and looks like it wants to bounce. I’ve noted the trendline of the current rally, which is just about ready to bump heads with the prior high at $57. We’re going to get a showdown, and the stock will either break trend and decline, or break out and move higher.<blockquote>然而，PPO最近成功测试了中心线支撑（蓝色椭圆形），看起来它想要反弹。我注意到了当前反弹的趋势线，它即将与之前的高点 57 美元相撞。我们要摊牌了，股票要么破势下跌，要么突破走高。</blockquote> It looks to me like the stock wants to break out, so that’s the way I’m leaning. However, I’m not certain enough to bet on that because the momentum divergences are concerning to me. But if Ihadto pick one, I’d say a breakout is slightly more likely.<blockquote>在我看来，这只股票似乎想要突破，所以我倾向于这样。不过，我还没有足够的把握来赌这一点，因为我担心的是势头分歧。但如果我有如果要选择一个，我认为突破的可能性稍大一些。</blockquote> Fundamental considerations<blockquote>基本考虑因素</blockquote> Now, with a stock like Coca-Cola, there are lots of other considerations besides just the chart. We know that away-from-home volumes dried up massively for the company during the pandemic, as things like restaurants, sports stadiums, and other places where you would go out and buy a zesty beverage were shut temporarily. That segment is still gradually recovering for Coca-Cola, and it has had to compensate with its other growth avenues that are focused at-home, such as coffee, tea, and its core sparkling beverages in smaller packages, for instance.<blockquote>现在，对于像可口可乐这样的股票，除了图表之外，还有很多其他的考虑因素。我们知道，在疫情期间，该公司的外出销量大幅减少，因为餐馆、体育场和其他你可以出去购买美味饮料的地方暂时关闭了。对于可口可乐来说，这一细分市场仍在逐步复苏，它不得不通过其他专注于家庭的增长渠道进行补偿，例如咖啡、茶及其小包装的核心气泡饮料。</blockquote> That has shown up in revenue estimates, which we can see below.<blockquote>这已经反映在收入预测中，我们可以在下面看到。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e4b3773c1e7e807127bbb82caa7da31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> Ignore the massive declines in the early part of this chart; that was due to the company’s now-completed bottling refranchising effort. We can focus on the past couple of years, and see that the company’s revenue estimates are still struggling relative to expectations. As great of a company as Coca-Cola is, you cannot escape the fact that it has a tendency to struggle with revenue estimates. That creates the obvious problem of a lower top line, but also because that impacts things like margins.<blockquote>忽略这张图表早期的大幅下降；这是由于该公司现已完成的装瓶再特许经营工作。我们可以关注过去几年，发现该公司的收入预测与预期相比仍在挣扎。尽管可口可乐是一家伟大的公司，但你无法回避这样一个事实：它往往会在收入预测上挣扎。这就产生了营收较低的明显问题，但也因为这会影响利润率等因素。</blockquote> The goal of the company’s refranchising effort was to boost margins by divesting low-margin bottling revenue, and it has certainly worked. But that tailwind is no more as those gains have been lapped, and Coca-Cola will now need to find actual margin improvements through sales mix, volumes, or any other means possible.<blockquote>该公司重新特许经营的目标是通过剥离低利润率的装瓶收入来提高利润率，这无疑是成功的。但随着这些收益被抹去，这种顺风已经不复存在，可口可乐现在需要通过销售组合、销量或任何其他可能的手段来寻找实际的利润率改善。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a522469c81b40f6c530d60cfe366bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> As we can see, it is working to some extent. Operating margins are in excess of 31% on a trailing-twelve-month basis, which is great. But that’s only marginally higher than it was before the bottling refranchising effort was complete. I’ll say that the company has been able to find profitability improvements in recent quarters, some of which were due to corporate layoffs to reduce headcount where it was apparently bloated. But for investors wanting to own this stock, operating margins are critical, particularly because revenue growth has been so weak.<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，它在某种程度上是有效的。过去 12 个月的营业利润率超过 31%，这非常好。但这仅略高于装瓶再特许经营工作完成前的水平。我想说的是，该公司在最近几个季度的盈利能力有所改善，其中一些原因是公司裁员，以减少明显臃肿的员工人数。但对于想要拥有这只股票的投资者来说，营业利润率至关重要，特别是因为收入增长一直如此疲软。</blockquote> I’m not certain where revenue growth will come from for Coca-Cola apart from the usual suspects of bottled water, coffee, tea, and other non-sparkling beverages. The trick is that sparkling isn’t growing for the most part but continues to make a huge proportion of revenue. That makes overall growth tricky, even if one or more segments are flying. Diversification works both ways, and in Coca-Cola’s case, it has been a years-long struggle with consumers shifting preferences to non-sparkling beverages.<blockquote>除了人们通常怀疑的瓶装水、咖啡、茶和其他非气泡饮料之外，我不确定可口可乐的收入增长将从何而来。诀窍在于，sparkling 在很大程度上并没有增长，但仍然占据着巨大的收入比例。这使得整体增长变得棘手，即使一个或多个细分市场正在蓬勃发展。多元化是双向的，就可口可乐而言，多年来，消费者一直在努力将偏好转向非起泡饮料。</blockquote> Now, let’s take a look at earnings.<blockquote>现在，让我们来看看收益情况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05cc94d311a7e832b05260e28f4e02f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> We can see the same sort of behavior that we saw with revenue, and that is not a compliment. EPS estimates have nearly continuously fallen, and while there’s been an uptick in recent months, it is peanuts compared to the prior declines.<blockquote>我们可以看到与收入相同的行为，这并不是恭维。每股收益的预期几乎一直在下降，虽然最近几个月有所上升，但与之前的下降相比，这只是小菜一碟。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88bfd9cfba9cb917a9ba85f7c2b6bd1d\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"108\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> We can see that all 24 revisions that have been made in the past three months have been higher, and that’s fantastic. However, in this case, keep in mind it was because the company is simply retracing lost ground; these are not estimates that are carving out new highs by any stretch of the imagination. You must temper your bullishness as a result, and keep in mind that the stock is knocking on the door of new highs while EPS estimates languish; more on that in a bit.<blockquote>我们可以看到，在过去三个月中进行的 24 次修订都更高，这真是太棒了。然而，在这种情况下，请记住，这是因为该公司只是在收复失地；这些估计并不是凭借任何想象力创造新高的。因此，你必须缓和你的乐观情绪，并记住，当每股收益预期低迷时，该股正在敲开新高的大门；稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote> Other considerations<blockquote>其他考虑因素</blockquote> Apart from revenue concerns, I have others with Coca-Cola as well. Below I’ve plotted long-term debt over the past several years to illustrate one meaningful concern I have.<blockquote>除了收入问题，我还与可口可乐有其他问题。下面，我绘制了过去几年的长期债务图，以说明我的一个有意义的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7520b696d1155d8ad6f911efaaf25c3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> We’re now up to about $40 billion in long-term debt, which is much higher than it was even before the refranchising effort was kicked off. Debt has been steady for the past handful of quarters, but this is a lot of debt for any company, and that includes one of the world’s premier consumer brands. Coca-Cola has the credit to borrow almost whatever it wants, so it isn’t like we’re looking at default potential. But what it does mean is that the company is on the hook for an ever-rising amount of interest expense, which is also taking a bigger share of operating income.<blockquote>我们现在的长期债务高达约 400 亿美元，甚至比重新特许经营开始之前还要高得多。在过去的几个季度里，债务一直保持稳定，但这对任何一家公司来说都是一笔巨额债务，其中包括全球顶级消费品牌之一。可口可乐公司几乎可以随意借任何东西，所以我们并不是在考虑违约的可能性。但这确实意味着该公司将承担不断增加的利息支出，这也占据了更大的经营利润份额。</blockquote> Below, we have operating income and interest expense on a trailing-twelve-month basis to illustrate what I’m on about.<blockquote>下面，我们列出了过去十二个月的经营利润和利息支出，以说明我的观点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c1d03e3beebf7482067c62b336d865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> Operating income has been remarkably flat over the years given the amount of change the company has undergone. The most recent quarter finally saw a new high in TTM operating income at $11.5 billion, but interest expense was also $2.2 billion. As a percentage of operating income, interest expense is now nearly 20%. So while the company has been busy trying to boost margins and scrape together some revenue increases, it continues to pay more to creditors.<blockquote>考虑到该公司经历的巨大变化，经营利润多年来一直非常平淡。最近一个季度，TTM经营利润终于创下115亿美元的新高，但利息支出也达到了22亿美元。作为经营利润的一个百分比，利息支出现在接近20%。因此，尽管该公司一直忙于提高利润率并增加一些收入，但它继续向债权人支付更多费用。</blockquote> This, in turn, reduces EPS because more and more operating income is going to creditors rather than shareholders. At a time when the company is struggling to grow EPS, this is yet another headwind it doesn’t need.<blockquote>这反过来又会减少每股收益，因为越来越多的经营利润流向了债权人而不是股东。在该公司努力提高每股收益之际，这又是一个它不需要的阻力。</blockquote> There’s another consideration for Coca-Cola given its mostly non-US revenue base, and that is forex conversion.<blockquote>鉴于可口可乐的收入来源大多不在美国，它还有另一个考虑因素，那就是外汇兑换。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051241c57ed64f0f6e8247c1cd69b4f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> Forex conversion has been a headwind given US dollar strength, and as long as the dollar is strong, the company will continue to have hundreds of millions of dollars of headwinds from forex conversion over time. This fluctuates a bunch given the unpredictable nature of forex crosses, but one thing is clear: Coca-Cola isn’t managing it well and it shows.<blockquote>鉴于美元走强，外汇兑换一直是一个阻力，只要美元走强，随着时间的推移，该公司将继续面临数亿美元的外汇兑换阻力。鉴于外汇交叉的不可预测性，这一数字波动很大，但有一点是明确的：可口可乐没有很好地管理这一问题，这一点显而易见。</blockquote> Final thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> Coca-Cola has some of the greatest consumer brands that have ever existed, and it is a terrific dividend stock. However, the points I’ve raised here make me wary of the stock as it tries to make new highs. I see the valuation as quite stretched, not only against historical norms but against the company’s ability to grow earnings given the points I’ve raised.<blockquote>可口可乐拥有一些有史以来最伟大的消费品牌，它是一只出色的股息股票。不过，我在这里提出的观点让我对该股保持警惕，因为它正试图创出新高。我认为估值相当过高，不仅违背了历史规范，而且考虑到我提出的观点，公司的盈利增长能力也受到了影响。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0749226ff0f1d634f7296539e0b11cdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> The stock is at ~24X forward earnings today, which is nearly its highest valuation ever. The stock was slightly more expensive at times in 2020 and 2021, but compared to historical valuations, I see the stock as overpriced. That doesn’t mean it cannot get more overpriced by any means, but I’d suggest caution at this stage.<blockquote>该股目前的预期市盈率约为 24 倍，几乎是其有史以来的最高估值。该股在 2020 年和 2021 年有时会略贵，但与历史估值相比，我认为该股定价过高。这并不意味着它不能无论如何定价过高，但我建议现阶段谨慎行事。</blockquote> As I mentioned, I think the path of least resistance short-term is probably higher, but I’m in no way interested in trying to trade it. There are numerous headwinds in place that make me doubt the rally, and the valuation is way too stretched for my liking. There are better consumer stocks to buy than Coca-Cola, and if you want the dividend, I think you wait for another larger selloff before pulling the trigger. Medium-term, I see the stock either pulling back to reflect the headwinds I’ve mentioned, or consolidating for a long time to allow EPS to catch up to the share price. Either way, there is no urgency to go out and buy today.<blockquote>正如我提到的，我认为短期阻力最小的路径可能更高，但我对尝试交易它毫无兴趣。有许多不利因素让我怀疑反弹，而且估值对我来说太夸张了。有比可口可乐更好的消费类股票值得购买，如果你想要股息，我认为你应该等待另一次更大的抛售再扣动扳机。从中期来看，我认为该股要么会回落以反映我提到的不利因素，要么会长期盘整，让每股收益赶上股价。不管怎样，今天都没有出去买的紧迫性。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Thinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThinking Of Buying Coca-Cola? Think Again<blockquote>想买可口可乐吗？再想想</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-07 15:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>KO looks like it wants to break out.</li> <li>But I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamental headwinds.</li> <li>With the valuation stretched, avoid KO.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebefc82af0f236beb1dcd9de3c554471\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>KO看起来想爆发。</li><li>但鉴于一些基本面的阻力，我现在持怀疑态度。</li><li>估值捉襟见肘，避免KO。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Beverage companies are not always the most glamorous stocks to buy, but over time, they tend to do well. Steady demand from consumers in both at-home and away-from-home channels generally fuels not only reliable growth but some measure of recession resistance as well.<blockquote>饮料公司并不总是最值得购买的股票，但随着时间的推移，它们往往表现良好。消费者在家和外出渠道的稳定需求通常不仅推动了可靠的增长，还在一定程度上抵御衰退。</blockquote> Bubbly beverage OG&nbsp;Coca-Cola(KO) is just such a stock that has paid rising dividends longer than most of us have been on this earth, so it fits nicely into the “recession resistant” and “steady growth” categories to be sure.<blockquote>起泡饮料和可口可乐(KO) 就是这样一只股票，它派发股息的时间比我们大多数人在地球上的时间还要长，因此它非常适合 “抗衰退 ”和 “稳定增长 ”类别。</blockquote> But does that make the stock a buy today? In a world of elevated valuations and low yields, Coca-Cola today seems to fit the bill on both of those accounts as well, and given this, I’m not certain it’s a good use of your capital.<blockquote>但这是否意味着该股今天值得买入呢？在一个估值高、收益率低的世界里，如今的可口可乐似乎在这两个方面都符合要求，有鉴于此，我不确定这是否能很好地利用你的资本。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0bbebb19e477d4dc2dc1fced28dd1ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: StockCharts<blockquote>资料来源：股票图表</blockquote> We’ll start as we always do with a look at the chart to get a glimpse of where we are today. First, the stock broke out over its prior consolidation earlier this year after being pummeled down to $47 back in January. The rally took the stock up about ten bucks in a virtually straight line, which is a huge move for a stock like this. That rally was quite strong, but proved to be unsustainable, as evidenced by the momentum indicators.<blockquote>我们将一如既往地从图表开始，以了解我们今天的处境。首先，该股在 1 月份跌至 47 美元后，突破了今年早些时候的盘整。这次反弹使该股几乎直线上涨了约 10 美元，对于这样的股票来说，这是一个巨大的波动。这种反弹相当强劲，但事实证明是不可持续的，动量指标就证明了这一点。</blockquote> The PPO made its high in April, months before the share price did, and even in the most recent stage of the rally, the PPO was actually declining fairly sharply, indicating that there was a meaningful negative divergence. That’s generally what the end of a rally looks like; the bulls are still fighting but not nearly as hard.<blockquote>PPO 在 4 月份达到高点，比股价早几个月，即使在上涨的最近阶段，PPO 实际上也在大幅下跌，表明存在有意义的负背离。这通常是反弹结束的样子；公牛队仍在战斗，但没有那么激烈。</blockquote> However, the PPO recently successfully tested centerline support (the blue oval) and looks like it wants to bounce. I’ve noted the trendline of the current rally, which is just about ready to bump heads with the prior high at $57. We’re going to get a showdown, and the stock will either break trend and decline, or break out and move higher.<blockquote>然而，PPO最近成功测试了中心线支撑（蓝色椭圆形），看起来它想要反弹。我注意到了当前反弹的趋势线，它即将与之前的高点 57 美元相撞。我们要摊牌了，股票要么破势下跌，要么突破走高。</blockquote> It looks to me like the stock wants to break out, so that’s the way I’m leaning. However, I’m not certain enough to bet on that because the momentum divergences are concerning to me. But if Ihadto pick one, I’d say a breakout is slightly more likely.<blockquote>在我看来，这只股票似乎想要突破，所以我倾向于这样。不过，我还没有足够的把握来赌这一点，因为我担心的是势头分歧。但如果我有如果要选择一个，我认为突破的可能性稍大一些。</blockquote> Fundamental considerations<blockquote>基本考虑因素</blockquote> Now, with a stock like Coca-Cola, there are lots of other considerations besides just the chart. We know that away-from-home volumes dried up massively for the company during the pandemic, as things like restaurants, sports stadiums, and other places where you would go out and buy a zesty beverage were shut temporarily. That segment is still gradually recovering for Coca-Cola, and it has had to compensate with its other growth avenues that are focused at-home, such as coffee, tea, and its core sparkling beverages in smaller packages, for instance.<blockquote>现在，对于像可口可乐这样的股票，除了图表之外，还有很多其他的考虑因素。我们知道，在疫情期间，该公司的外出销量大幅减少，因为餐馆、体育场和其他你可以出去购买美味饮料的地方暂时关闭了。对于可口可乐来说，这一细分市场仍在逐步复苏，它不得不通过其他专注于家庭的增长渠道进行补偿，例如咖啡、茶及其小包装的核心气泡饮料。</blockquote> That has shown up in revenue estimates, which we can see below.<blockquote>这已经反映在收入预测中，我们可以在下面看到。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e4b3773c1e7e807127bbb82caa7da31\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> Ignore the massive declines in the early part of this chart; that was due to the company’s now-completed bottling refranchising effort. We can focus on the past couple of years, and see that the company’s revenue estimates are still struggling relative to expectations. As great of a company as Coca-Cola is, you cannot escape the fact that it has a tendency to struggle with revenue estimates. That creates the obvious problem of a lower top line, but also because that impacts things like margins.<blockquote>忽略这张图表早期的大幅下降；这是由于该公司现已完成的装瓶再特许经营工作。我们可以关注过去几年，发现该公司的收入预测与预期相比仍在挣扎。尽管可口可乐是一家伟大的公司，但你无法回避这样一个事实：它往往会在收入预测上挣扎。这就产生了营收较低的明显问题，但也因为这会影响利润率等因素。</blockquote> The goal of the company’s refranchising effort was to boost margins by divesting low-margin bottling revenue, and it has certainly worked. But that tailwind is no more as those gains have been lapped, and Coca-Cola will now need to find actual margin improvements through sales mix, volumes, or any other means possible.<blockquote>该公司重新特许经营的目标是通过剥离低利润率的装瓶收入来提高利润率，这无疑是成功的。但随着这些收益被抹去，这种顺风已经不复存在，可口可乐现在需要通过销售组合、销量或任何其他可能的手段来寻找实际的利润率改善。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a522469c81b40f6c530d60cfe366bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> As we can see, it is working to some extent. Operating margins are in excess of 31% on a trailing-twelve-month basis, which is great. But that’s only marginally higher than it was before the bottling refranchising effort was complete. I’ll say that the company has been able to find profitability improvements in recent quarters, some of which were due to corporate layoffs to reduce headcount where it was apparently bloated. But for investors wanting to own this stock, operating margins are critical, particularly because revenue growth has been so weak.<blockquote>正如我们所看到的，它在某种程度上是有效的。过去 12 个月的营业利润率超过 31%，这非常好。但这仅略高于装瓶再特许经营工作完成前的水平。我想说的是，该公司在最近几个季度的盈利能力有所改善，其中一些原因是公司裁员，以减少明显臃肿的员工人数。但对于想要拥有这只股票的投资者来说，营业利润率至关重要，特别是因为收入增长一直如此疲软。</blockquote> I’m not certain where revenue growth will come from for Coca-Cola apart from the usual suspects of bottled water, coffee, tea, and other non-sparkling beverages. The trick is that sparkling isn’t growing for the most part but continues to make a huge proportion of revenue. That makes overall growth tricky, even if one or more segments are flying. Diversification works both ways, and in Coca-Cola’s case, it has been a years-long struggle with consumers shifting preferences to non-sparkling beverages.<blockquote>除了人们通常怀疑的瓶装水、咖啡、茶和其他非气泡饮料之外，我不确定可口可乐的收入增长将从何而来。诀窍在于，sparkling 在很大程度上并没有增长，但仍然占据着巨大的收入比例。这使得整体增长变得棘手，即使一个或多个细分市场正在蓬勃发展。多元化是双向的，就可口可乐而言，多年来，消费者一直在努力将偏好转向非起泡饮料。</blockquote> Now, let’s take a look at earnings.<blockquote>现在，让我们来看看收益情况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05cc94d311a7e832b05260e28f4e02f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> We can see the same sort of behavior that we saw with revenue, and that is not a compliment. EPS estimates have nearly continuously fallen, and while there’s been an uptick in recent months, it is peanuts compared to the prior declines.<blockquote>我们可以看到与收入相同的行为，这并不是恭维。每股收益的预期几乎一直在下降，虽然最近几个月有所上升，但与之前的下降相比，这只是小菜一碟。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88bfd9cfba9cb917a9ba85f7c2b6bd1d\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"108\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> We can see that all 24 revisions that have been made in the past three months have been higher, and that’s fantastic. However, in this case, keep in mind it was because the company is simply retracing lost ground; these are not estimates that are carving out new highs by any stretch of the imagination. You must temper your bullishness as a result, and keep in mind that the stock is knocking on the door of new highs while EPS estimates languish; more on that in a bit.<blockquote>我们可以看到，在过去三个月中进行的 24 次修订都更高，这真是太棒了。然而，在这种情况下，请记住，这是因为该公司只是在收复失地；这些估计并不是凭借任何想象力创造新高的。因此，你必须缓和你的乐观情绪，并记住，当每股收益预期低迷时，该股正在敲开新高的大门；稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote> Other considerations<blockquote>其他考虑因素</blockquote> Apart from revenue concerns, I have others with Coca-Cola as well. Below I’ve plotted long-term debt over the past several years to illustrate one meaningful concern I have.<blockquote>除了收入问题，我还与可口可乐有其他问题。下面，我绘制了过去几年的长期债务图，以说明我的一个有意义的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7520b696d1155d8ad6f911efaaf25c3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> We’re now up to about $40 billion in long-term debt, which is much higher than it was even before the refranchising effort was kicked off. Debt has been steady for the past handful of quarters, but this is a lot of debt for any company, and that includes one of the world’s premier consumer brands. Coca-Cola has the credit to borrow almost whatever it wants, so it isn’t like we’re looking at default potential. But what it does mean is that the company is on the hook for an ever-rising amount of interest expense, which is also taking a bigger share of operating income.<blockquote>我们现在的长期债务高达约 400 亿美元，甚至比重新特许经营开始之前还要高得多。在过去的几个季度里，债务一直保持稳定，但这对任何一家公司来说都是一笔巨额债务，其中包括全球顶级消费品牌之一。可口可乐公司几乎可以随意借任何东西，所以我们并不是在考虑违约的可能性。但这确实意味着该公司将承担不断增加的利息支出，这也占据了更大的经营利润份额。</blockquote> Below, we have operating income and interest expense on a trailing-twelve-month basis to illustrate what I’m on about.<blockquote>下面，我们列出了过去十二个月的经营利润和利息支出，以说明我的观点。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c1d03e3beebf7482067c62b336d865\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> Operating income has been remarkably flat over the years given the amount of change the company has undergone. The most recent quarter finally saw a new high in TTM operating income at $11.5 billion, but interest expense was also $2.2 billion. As a percentage of operating income, interest expense is now nearly 20%. So while the company has been busy trying to boost margins and scrape together some revenue increases, it continues to pay more to creditors.<blockquote>考虑到该公司经历的巨大变化，经营利润多年来一直非常平淡。最近一个季度，TTM经营利润终于创下115亿美元的新高，但利息支出也达到了22亿美元。作为经营利润的一个百分比，利息支出现在接近20%。因此，尽管该公司一直忙于提高利润率并增加一些收入，但它继续向债权人支付更多费用。</blockquote> This, in turn, reduces EPS because more and more operating income is going to creditors rather than shareholders. At a time when the company is struggling to grow EPS, this is yet another headwind it doesn’t need.<blockquote>这反过来又会减少每股收益，因为越来越多的经营利润流向了债权人而不是股东。在该公司努力提高每股收益之际，这又是一个它不需要的阻力。</blockquote> There’s another consideration for Coca-Cola given its mostly non-US revenue base, and that is forex conversion.<blockquote>鉴于可口可乐的收入来源大多不在美国，它还有另一个考虑因素，那就是外汇兑换。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051241c57ed64f0f6e8247c1cd69b4f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> Forex conversion has been a headwind given US dollar strength, and as long as the dollar is strong, the company will continue to have hundreds of millions of dollars of headwinds from forex conversion over time. This fluctuates a bunch given the unpredictable nature of forex crosses, but one thing is clear: Coca-Cola isn’t managing it well and it shows.<blockquote>鉴于美元走强，外汇兑换一直是一个阻力，只要美元走强，随着时间的推移，该公司将继续面临数亿美元的外汇兑换阻力。鉴于外汇交叉的不可预测性，这一数字波动很大，但有一点是明确的：可口可乐没有很好地管理这一问题，这一点显而易见。</blockquote> Final thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> Coca-Cola has some of the greatest consumer brands that have ever existed, and it is a terrific dividend stock. However, the points I’ve raised here make me wary of the stock as it tries to make new highs. I see the valuation as quite stretched, not only against historical norms but against the company’s ability to grow earnings given the points I’ve raised.<blockquote>可口可乐拥有一些有史以来最伟大的消费品牌，它是一只出色的股息股票。不过，我在这里提出的观点让我对该股保持警惕，因为它正试图创出新高。我认为估值相当过高，不仅违背了历史规范，而且考虑到我提出的观点，公司的盈利增长能力也受到了影响。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0749226ff0f1d634f7296539e0b11cdd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"188\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TIKR.com<blockquote>资料来源：TIKR.com</blockquote> The stock is at ~24X forward earnings today, which is nearly its highest valuation ever. The stock was slightly more expensive at times in 2020 and 2021, but compared to historical valuations, I see the stock as overpriced. That doesn’t mean it cannot get more overpriced by any means, but I’d suggest caution at this stage.<blockquote>该股目前的预期市盈率约为 24 倍，几乎是其有史以来的最高估值。该股在 2020 年和 2021 年有时会略贵，但与历史估值相比，我认为该股定价过高。这并不意味着它不能无论如何定价过高，但我建议现阶段谨慎行事。</blockquote> As I mentioned, I think the path of least resistance short-term is probably higher, but I’m in no way interested in trying to trade it. There are numerous headwinds in place that make me doubt the rally, and the valuation is way too stretched for my liking. There are better consumer stocks to buy than Coca-Cola, and if you want the dividend, I think you wait for another larger selloff before pulling the trigger. Medium-term, I see the stock either pulling back to reflect the headwinds I’ve mentioned, or consolidating for a long time to allow EPS to catch up to the share price. Either way, there is no urgency to go out and buy today.<blockquote>正如我提到的，我认为短期阻力最小的路径可能更高，但我对尝试交易它毫无兴趣。有许多不利因素让我怀疑反弹，而且估值对我来说太夸张了。有比可口可乐更好的消费类股票值得购买，如果你想要股息，我认为你应该等待另一次更大的抛售再扣动扳机。从中期来看，我认为该股要么会回落以反映我提到的不利因素，要么会长期盘整，让每股收益赶上股价。不管怎样，今天都没有出去买的紧迫性。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453756-thinking-of-buying-coca-cola-think-again\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KO":"可口可乐"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453756-thinking-of-buying-coca-cola-think-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167423848","content_text":"Summary\n\nKO looks like it wants to break out.\nBut I'm skeptical right now given a number of fundamental headwinds.\nWith the valuation stretched, avoid KO.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nBeverage companies are not always the most glamorous stocks to buy, but over time, they tend to do well. Steady demand from consumers in both at-home and away-from-home channels generally fuels not only reliable growth but some measure of recession resistance as well.\nBubbly beverage OG Coca-Cola(KO) is just such a stock that has paid rising dividends longer than most of us have been on this earth, so it fits nicely into the “recession resistant” and “steady growth” categories to be sure.\nBut does that make the stock a buy today? In a world of elevated valuations and low yields, Coca-Cola today seems to fit the bill on both of those accounts as well, and given this, I’m not certain it’s a good use of your capital.\nSource: StockCharts\nWe’ll start as we always do with a look at the chart to get a glimpse of where we are today. First, the stock broke out over its prior consolidation earlier this year after being pummeled down to $47 back in January. The rally took the stock up about ten bucks in a virtually straight line, which is a huge move for a stock like this. That rally was quite strong, but proved to be unsustainable, as evidenced by the momentum indicators.\nThe PPO made its high in April, months before the share price did, and even in the most recent stage of the rally, the PPO was actually declining fairly sharply, indicating that there was a meaningful negative divergence. That’s generally what the end of a rally looks like; the bulls are still fighting but not nearly as hard.\nHowever, the PPO recently successfully tested centerline support (the blue oval) and looks like it wants to bounce. I’ve noted the trendline of the current rally, which is just about ready to bump heads with the prior high at $57. We’re going to get a showdown, and the stock will either break trend and decline, or break out and move higher.\nIt looks to me like the stock wants to break out, so that’s the way I’m leaning. However, I’m not certain enough to bet on that because the momentum divergences are concerning to me. But if Ihadto pick one, I’d say a breakout is slightly more likely.\nFundamental considerations\nNow, with a stock like Coca-Cola, there are lots of other considerations besides just the chart. We know that away-from-home volumes dried up massively for the company during the pandemic, as things like restaurants, sports stadiums, and other places where you would go out and buy a zesty beverage were shut temporarily. That segment is still gradually recovering for Coca-Cola, and it has had to compensate with its other growth avenues that are focused at-home, such as coffee, tea, and its core sparkling beverages in smaller packages, for instance.\nThat has shown up in revenue estimates, which we can see below.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nIgnore the massive declines in the early part of this chart; that was due to the company’s now-completed bottling refranchising effort. We can focus on the past couple of years, and see that the company’s revenue estimates are still struggling relative to expectations. As great of a company as Coca-Cola is, you cannot escape the fact that it has a tendency to struggle with revenue estimates. That creates the obvious problem of a lower top line, but also because that impacts things like margins.\nThe goal of the company’s refranchising effort was to boost margins by divesting low-margin bottling revenue, and it has certainly worked. But that tailwind is no more as those gains have been lapped, and Coca-Cola will now need to find actual margin improvements through sales mix, volumes, or any other means possible.\nSource: TIKR.com\nAs we can see, it is working to some extent. Operating margins are in excess of 31% on a trailing-twelve-month basis, which is great. But that’s only marginally higher than it was before the bottling refranchising effort was complete. I’ll say that the company has been able to find profitability improvements in recent quarters, some of which were due to corporate layoffs to reduce headcount where it was apparently bloated. But for investors wanting to own this stock, operating margins are critical, particularly because revenue growth has been so weak.\nI’m not certain where revenue growth will come from for Coca-Cola apart from the usual suspects of bottled water, coffee, tea, and other non-sparkling beverages. The trick is that sparkling isn’t growing for the most part but continues to make a huge proportion of revenue. That makes overall growth tricky, even if one or more segments are flying. Diversification works both ways, and in Coca-Cola’s case, it has been a years-long struggle with consumers shifting preferences to non-sparkling beverages.\nNow, let’s take a look at earnings.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWe can see the same sort of behavior that we saw with revenue, and that is not a compliment. EPS estimates have nearly continuously fallen, and while there’s been an uptick in recent months, it is peanuts compared to the prior declines.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWe can see that all 24 revisions that have been made in the past three months have been higher, and that’s fantastic. However, in this case, keep in mind it was because the company is simply retracing lost ground; these are not estimates that are carving out new highs by any stretch of the imagination. You must temper your bullishness as a result, and keep in mind that the stock is knocking on the door of new highs while EPS estimates languish; more on that in a bit.\nOther considerations\nApart from revenue concerns, I have others with Coca-Cola as well. Below I’ve plotted long-term debt over the past several years to illustrate one meaningful concern I have.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe’re now up to about $40 billion in long-term debt, which is much higher than it was even before the refranchising effort was kicked off. Debt has been steady for the past handful of quarters, but this is a lot of debt for any company, and that includes one of the world’s premier consumer brands. Coca-Cola has the credit to borrow almost whatever it wants, so it isn’t like we’re looking at default potential. But what it does mean is that the company is on the hook for an ever-rising amount of interest expense, which is also taking a bigger share of operating income.\nBelow, we have operating income and interest expense on a trailing-twelve-month basis to illustrate what I’m on about.\nSource: TIKR.com\nOperating income has been remarkably flat over the years given the amount of change the company has undergone. The most recent quarter finally saw a new high in TTM operating income at $11.5 billion, but interest expense was also $2.2 billion. As a percentage of operating income, interest expense is now nearly 20%. So while the company has been busy trying to boost margins and scrape together some revenue increases, it continues to pay more to creditors.\nThis, in turn, reduces EPS because more and more operating income is going to creditors rather than shareholders. At a time when the company is struggling to grow EPS, this is yet another headwind it doesn’t need.\nThere’s another consideration for Coca-Cola given its mostly non-US revenue base, and that is forex conversion.\nSource: TIKR.com\nForex conversion has been a headwind given US dollar strength, and as long as the dollar is strong, the company will continue to have hundreds of millions of dollars of headwinds from forex conversion over time. This fluctuates a bunch given the unpredictable nature of forex crosses, but one thing is clear: Coca-Cola isn’t managing it well and it shows.\nFinal thoughts\nCoca-Cola has some of the greatest consumer brands that have ever existed, and it is a terrific dividend stock. However, the points I’ve raised here make me wary of the stock as it tries to make new highs. I see the valuation as quite stretched, not only against historical norms but against the company’s ability to grow earnings given the points I’ve raised.\nSource: TIKR.com\nThe stock is at ~24X forward earnings today, which is nearly its highest valuation ever. The stock was slightly more expensive at times in 2020 and 2021, but compared to historical valuations, I see the stock as overpriced. That doesn’t mean it cannot get more overpriced by any means, but I’d suggest caution at this stage.\nAs I mentioned, I think the path of least resistance short-term is probably higher, but I’m in no way interested in trying to trade it. There are numerous headwinds in place that make me doubt the rally, and the valuation is way too stretched for my liking. There are better consumer stocks to buy than Coca-Cola, and if you want the dividend, I think you wait for another larger selloff before pulling the trigger. Medium-term, I see the stock either pulling back to reflect the headwinds I’ve mentioned, or consolidating for a long time to allow EPS to catch up to the share price. Either way, there is no urgency to go out and buy today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1694,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/880060586"}