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2021-11-13

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Doubting that we could be in a stock-market bubble? Here's the chart you need to see.<blockquote>怀疑我们可能处于股市泡沫中？这是你需要看的图表。</blockquote>

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Here's the chart you need to see.<blockquote>怀疑我们可能处于股市泡沫中？这是你需要看的图表。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2182071013","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"A shocking week on the inflation front has left a dent in stocks, with major indexes set to deliver ","content":"A shocking week on the inflation front has left a dent in stocks, with major indexes set to deliver 1%-plus losses across the board. That’s even as some Wall Street strategists see little blocking further stock gains or that frequent year-end melt-up.<blockquote>通胀方面令人震惊的一周对股市造成了影响，主要股指将全面下跌 1% 以上。尽管一些华尔街策略师认为，股市的进一步上涨或年底频繁的融化几乎没有阻碍。</blockquote> Yet the worry festers, such as for Nicolai Tangen, the manager of Norways’ $1.4 trillion sovereign-wealth fund, the biggest money pot in the world.<blockquote>然而，这种担忧却在不断恶化，比如挪威1.4万亿美元主权财富基金（世界上最大的资金池）的经理尼古拉-坦根（Nicolai Tangen）。</blockquote> “We’re looking at the degree of euphoria. With markets really panicky last year, we have entered a very euphoric phase, and we just need to consistently gauge the levels of euphoria,” Tangen said in a recent interview with Devin Banerjee, editor at large, business and finance for LinkedIn.<blockquote>“我们正在研究兴奋的程度。由于去年市场非常恐慌，我们已经进入了一个非常兴奋的阶段，我们只需要持续衡量兴奋的程度，”Tangen 最近在接受 LinkedIn 商业与金融主编 Devin Banerjee 采访时说。</blockquote> “And then, of course, the real threat is inflation. If inflation really takes off, that’s going to be bad news both for our bond portfolio and for the equity portfolio. So, that’s where we have the laser focus,” added Tangen.<blockquote>“当然，真正的威胁是通货膨胀。如果通货膨胀真的开始上升，这对我们的债券投资组合和股票投资组合来说都是坏消息。因此，这就是我们需要重点关注的地方，”Tangen 补充道。</blockquote> It’s a reminder that what some see as heady times for stocks aren’t going unnoticed.<blockquote>这提醒我们，一些人眼中的股市繁荣时期并没有被忽视。</blockquote> That brings us to our call of the day from Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, who falls into that camp with his latest note entitled “In case there are bubble doubts.”<blockquote>这就把我们带到了今日看涨期权琼斯交易公司（JonesTrading）首席市场策略师迈克尔-奥罗克（Michael O'Rourke）也属于这一阵营，他的最新报告题为《以防出现泡沫疑虑》。</blockquote> He writes: “Since the U.S. financial markets have achieved new levels of insanity, we want to make sure we document this moment in time for posterity’s sake. Apparently, we have not learned anything from the Equity, Housing and Credit bubbles that occurred between 1999 and 2008.<blockquote>他写道： “由于美国金融市场已经达到了疯狂的新水平，我们希望确保为了子孙后代，及时记录下这一时刻。显然，我们没有从 1999 年至 2008 年间发生的股票、房地产和信贷泡沫中吸取任何教训。</blockquote> “It can’t be any clearer than the fact that the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization is 177% of U.S. GDP,” adds O’Rourke, who provides this chart:<blockquote>“提供这张图表的奥罗克补充说：”标普500的市值占美国国内生产总值的 177%，这一点再清楚不过了：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5dfce87383926286f5e338e535810e6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JonesTrading/Bloomberg<blockquote>琼斯交易/彭博社</blockquote> During the 2000 tech bubble, the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.<blockquote>他说，在 2000 年科技泡沫期间，标普500的市值达到了名义国内生产总值的 121% 的峰值。</blockquote> “That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&amp;P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.<blockquote>“奥罗克说：”这应该描绘出一幅鲜明的画面，说明今天的市场相对于上一代股票泡沫的昂贵程度。他补充说，目前的水平也是过去三十年平均水平的两倍，是标普500在 2008-09 年金融危机期间触底时的估值的三倍。</blockquote> “Even with the greater inflationary bump to Nominal GDP, it would need to grow at 8% for a decade to return to the historic market cap to GDP average,” he says.<blockquote>“他说：”即使通货膨胀率对名义 GDP 的影响更大，它也需要在十年内以 8% 的速度增长，才能恢复到历史性的市值与 GDP 平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb8a4b1f1bfec5d4e8585b0e47fd9d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JonesTrading/Bloomberg<blockquote>琼斯交易/彭博社</blockquote> “The $3 trillion in crypto (whose only purpose appears to be speculation) is a&nbsp;clear illustration of an environment that knows no fear. Nonetheless, we are&nbsp;among the few who fear a 50% S&amp;P 500 valuation drop that would bring the&nbsp;index’s market capitalization back in line with its average historic relationship&nbsp;to GDP,” he says.<blockquote>“3 万亿美元的加密货币（其唯一目的似乎是投机）清楚地说明了一个无所畏惧的环境。尽管如此，我们还是少数几个担心标普500估值下跌 50% 会使该指数的市值回到其与 GDP 的平均历史关系的人之一，”他说。</blockquote> O’Rourke reminds of us a “painful” 80% decline for the Nasdaq Composite between March 2000 and October 2002. “Just think, the broad tape is 50% more expensive today than March 2000,” he says.<blockquote>奥罗克提醒我们，2000 年 3 月至 2002 年 10 月期间，纳斯达克综合指数 “痛苦 ”地下跌了 80%。“他说：”想想看，现在的宽带比 2000 年 3 月贵了 50%。</blockquote> Back then, Amazon&nbsp;was a top internet company and highly regarded stock, but shares still slumped 95% between December 1999 and September 2001, he says.<blockquote>他说，当时亚马逊是一家顶级互联网公司，也是备受推崇的股票，但在 1999 年 12 月至 2001 年 9 月期间，其股价仍然下跌了 95%。</blockquote> The strategist goes on to point the finger at the Federal Reserve and other central banks for propping up markets. “Today, the world is no better than the one two decades ago, and it is arguably worse. It is simply that these extra trillions of dollars having entered the economy in a short period of time provide the pretense of a special time meriting unsustainable valuations,” he says.<blockquote>这位策略师继续指责美联储和其他央行支撑市场。“今天的世界并不比二十年前好多少，而且可以说更糟糕。他说：”只是这些额外的数万亿美元在短时间内进入经济，为特殊时期提供了一个借口，值得进行不可持续的估值。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Doubting that we could be in a stock-market bubble? Here's the chart you need to see.<blockquote>怀疑我们可能处于股市泡沫中？这是你需要看的图表。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoubting that we could be in a stock-market bubble? Here's the chart you need to see.<blockquote>怀疑我们可能处于股市泡沫中？这是你需要看的图表。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-11-13 07:17\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nA shocking week on the inflation front has left a dent in stocks, with major indexes set to deliver 1%-plus losses across the board. That’s even as some Wall Street strategists see little blocking further stock gains or that frequent year-end melt-up.<blockquote>通胀方面令人震惊的一周对股市造成了影响，主要股指将全面下跌 1% 以上。尽管一些华尔街策略师认为，股市的进一步上涨或年底频繁的融化几乎没有阻碍。</blockquote> Yet the worry festers, such as for Nicolai Tangen, the manager of Norways’ $1.4 trillion sovereign-wealth fund, the biggest money pot in the world.<blockquote>然而，这种担忧却在不断恶化，比如挪威1.4万亿美元主权财富基金（世界上最大的资金池）的经理尼古拉-坦根（Nicolai Tangen）。</blockquote> “We’re looking at the degree of euphoria. With markets really panicky last year, we have entered a very euphoric phase, and we just need to consistently gauge the levels of euphoria,” Tangen said in a recent interview with Devin Banerjee, editor at large, business and finance for LinkedIn.<blockquote>“我们正在研究兴奋的程度。由于去年市场非常恐慌，我们已经进入了一个非常兴奋的阶段，我们只需要持续衡量兴奋的程度，”Tangen 最近在接受 LinkedIn 商业与金融主编 Devin Banerjee 采访时说。</blockquote> “And then, of course, the real threat is inflation. If inflation really takes off, that’s going to be bad news both for our bond portfolio and for the equity portfolio. So, that’s where we have the laser focus,” added Tangen.<blockquote>“当然，真正的威胁是通货膨胀。如果通货膨胀真的开始上升，这对我们的债券投资组合和股票投资组合来说都是坏消息。因此，这就是我们需要重点关注的地方，”Tangen 补充道。</blockquote> It’s a reminder that what some see as heady times for stocks aren’t going unnoticed.<blockquote>这提醒我们，一些人眼中的股市繁荣时期并没有被忽视。</blockquote> That brings us to our call of the day from Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, who falls into that camp with his latest note entitled “In case there are bubble doubts.”<blockquote>这就把我们带到了今日看涨期权琼斯交易公司（JonesTrading）首席市场策略师迈克尔-奥罗克（Michael O'Rourke）也属于这一阵营，他的最新报告题为《以防出现泡沫疑虑》。</blockquote> He writes: “Since the U.S. financial markets have achieved new levels of insanity, we want to make sure we document this moment in time for posterity’s sake. Apparently, we have not learned anything from the Equity, Housing and Credit bubbles that occurred between 1999 and 2008.<blockquote>他写道： “由于美国金融市场已经达到了疯狂的新水平，我们希望确保为了子孙后代，及时记录下这一时刻。显然，我们没有从 1999 年至 2008 年间发生的股票、房地产和信贷泡沫中吸取任何教训。</blockquote> “It can’t be any clearer than the fact that the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization is 177% of U.S. GDP,” adds O’Rourke, who provides this chart:<blockquote>“提供这张图表的奥罗克补充说：”标普500的市值占美国国内生产总值的 177%，这一点再清楚不过了：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5dfce87383926286f5e338e535810e6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JonesTrading/Bloomberg<blockquote>琼斯交易/彭博社</blockquote> During the 2000 tech bubble, the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.<blockquote>他说，在 2000 年科技泡沫期间，标普500的市值达到了名义国内生产总值的 121% 的峰值。</blockquote> “That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&amp;P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.<blockquote>“奥罗克说：”这应该描绘出一幅鲜明的画面，说明今天的市场相对于上一代股票泡沫的昂贵程度。他补充说，目前的水平也是过去三十年平均水平的两倍，是标普500在 2008-09 年金融危机期间触底时的估值的三倍。</blockquote> “Even with the greater inflationary bump to Nominal GDP, it would need to grow at 8% for a decade to return to the historic market cap to GDP average,” he says.<blockquote>“他说：”即使通货膨胀率对名义 GDP 的影响更大，它也需要在十年内以 8% 的速度增长，才能恢复到历史性的市值与 GDP 平均水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb8a4b1f1bfec5d4e8585b0e47fd9d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">JonesTrading/Bloomberg<blockquote>琼斯交易/彭博社</blockquote> “The $3 trillion in crypto (whose only purpose appears to be speculation) is a&nbsp;clear illustration of an environment that knows no fear. Nonetheless, we are&nbsp;among the few who fear a 50% S&amp;P 500 valuation drop that would bring the&nbsp;index’s market capitalization back in line with its average historic relationship&nbsp;to GDP,” he says.<blockquote>“3 万亿美元的加密货币（其唯一目的似乎是投机）清楚地说明了一个无所畏惧的环境。尽管如此，我们还是少数几个担心标普500估值下跌 50% 会使该指数的市值回到其与 GDP 的平均历史关系的人之一，”他说。</blockquote> O’Rourke reminds of us a “painful” 80% decline for the Nasdaq Composite between March 2000 and October 2002. “Just think, the broad tape is 50% more expensive today than March 2000,” he says.<blockquote>奥罗克提醒我们，2000 年 3 月至 2002 年 10 月期间，纳斯达克综合指数 “痛苦 ”地下跌了 80%。“他说：”想想看，现在的宽带比 2000 年 3 月贵了 50%。</blockquote> Back then, Amazon&nbsp;was a top internet company and highly regarded stock, but shares still slumped 95% between December 1999 and September 2001, he says.<blockquote>他说，当时亚马逊是一家顶级互联网公司，也是备受推崇的股票，但在 1999 年 12 月至 2001 年 9 月期间，其股价仍然下跌了 95%。</blockquote> The strategist goes on to point the finger at the Federal Reserve and other central banks for propping up markets. “Today, the world is no better than the one two decades ago, and it is arguably worse. It is simply that these extra trillions of dollars having entered the economy in a short period of time provide the pretense of a special time meriting unsustainable valuations,” he says.<blockquote>这位策略师继续指责美联储和其他央行支撑市场。“今天的世界并不比二十年前好多少，而且可以说更糟糕。他说：”只是这些额外的数万亿美元在短时间内进入经济，为特殊时期提供了一个借口，值得进行不可持续的估值。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/doubting-that-we-could-be-in-a-stock-market-bubble-heres-the-chart-you-need-to-see-11636719571?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/doubting-that-we-could-be-in-a-stock-market-bubble-heres-the-chart-you-need-to-see-11636719571?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2182071013","content_text":"A shocking week on the inflation front has left a dent in stocks, with major indexes set to deliver 1%-plus losses across the board. That’s even as some Wall Street strategists see little blocking further stock gains or that frequent year-end melt-up.\nYet the worry festers, such as for Nicolai Tangen, the manager of Norways’ $1.4 trillion sovereign-wealth fund, the biggest money pot in the world.\n“We’re looking at the degree of euphoria. With markets really panicky last year, we have entered a very euphoric phase, and we just need to consistently gauge the levels of euphoria,” Tangen said in a recent interview with Devin Banerjee, editor at large, business and finance for LinkedIn.\n“And then, of course, the real threat is inflation. If inflation really takes off, that’s going to be bad news both for our bond portfolio and for the equity portfolio. So, that’s where we have the laser focus,” added Tangen.\nIt’s a reminder that what some see as heady times for stocks aren’t going unnoticed.\nThat brings us to our call of the day from Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, who falls into that camp with his latest note entitled “In case there are bubble doubts.”\nHe writes: “Since the U.S. financial markets have achieved new levels of insanity, we want to make sure we document this moment in time for posterity’s sake. Apparently, we have not learned anything from the Equity, Housing and Credit bubbles that occurred between 1999 and 2008.\n“It can’t be any clearer than the fact that the S&P 500’s market capitalization is 177% of U.S. GDP,” adds O’Rourke, who provides this chart:\nJonesTrading/Bloomberg\nDuring the 2000 tech bubble, the S&P 500’s market capitalization peaked at 121% of nominal gross domestic product, he says.\n“That should paint a stark picture as to how expensive today’s market is relative to the last generational equity bubble,” says O’Rourke, who adds that the current level is also double the average reading of the past three decades and triple the valuation where the S&P 500 bottomed during the 2008-09 financial crisis.\n“Even with the greater inflationary bump to Nominal GDP, it would need to grow at 8% for a decade to return to the historic market cap to GDP average,” he says.\nJonesTrading/Bloomberg\n“The $3 trillion in crypto (whose only purpose appears to be speculation) is a clear illustration of an environment that knows no fear. Nonetheless, we are among the few who fear a 50% S&P 500 valuation drop that would bring the index’s market capitalization back in line with its average historic relationship to GDP,” he says.\nO’Rourke reminds of us a “painful” 80% decline for the Nasdaq Composite between March 2000 and October 2002. “Just think, the broad tape is 50% more expensive today than March 2000,” he says.\nBack then, Amazon was a top internet company and highly regarded stock, but shares still slumped 95% between December 1999 and September 2001, he says.\nThe strategist goes on to point the finger at the Federal Reserve and other central banks for propping up markets. “Today, the world is no better than the one two decades ago, and it is arguably worse. It is simply that these extra trillions of dollars having entered the economy in a short period of time provide the pretense of a special time meriting unsustainable valuations,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":38,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/879461976"}