Financing
2021-11-18
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Roku Stock: Looking Ahead, This Will Be Painful<blockquote>Roku股票：展望未来，这将是痛苦的</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":878738195,"tweetId":"878738195","gmtCreate":1637230814218,"gmtModify":1637230814404,"author":{"id":3555322489656908,"idStr":"3555322489656908","authorId":3555322489656908,"authorIdStr":"3555322489656908","name":"Financing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c97628ae8f698ac5fac06f1bd8176a61","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":29,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>🐳</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>🐳</p></body></html>","text":"🐳","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878738195","repostId":1190005862,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190005862","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637230502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190005862?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-18 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roku Stock: Looking Ahead, This Will Be Painful<blockquote>Roku股票：展望未来，这将是痛苦的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190005862","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRoku's decelerating revenue growth rates are one part of the story.\nThe other part is that ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Roku's decelerating revenue growth rates are one part of the story.</li> <li>The other part is that active accounts growth is slowing down, which has an overarching impact on the business's prospects going forward.</li> <li>Why ROKU stock is still not in the bargain basement, even now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a4aa7b90dc3cc66685ca9d6dbaa3b6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"907\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>simpson33/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Roku收入增长率放缓是原因之一。</li><li>另一部分是活跃账户增长正在放缓，这对业务的未来前景产生了重大影响。</li><li>为什么即使是现在，ROKU的股票仍然不便宜。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>simpson33/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Roku (ROKU) has fallen out of favor with investors, with shareholders selling the stock at a rapid clip.</p><p><blockquote>Roku（Roku）已经失去了投资者的青睐，股东迅速出售该股票。</blockquote></p><p> But as we go through, I make the case that investors shouldn't be too quick to buy the dip here. Indeed, I contend that paying 10x forward sales for the Platform business is not as cheap as it looks, particularly given that the growth in active accounts is slowing down.</p><p><blockquote>但随着我们的经历，我认为投资者不应该太快逢低买入。事实上，我认为为平台业务支付10倍的远期销售额并不像看起来那么便宜，特别是考虑到活跃账户的增长正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investors Sentiment Turns Negative For ROKU</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ROKU投资者情绪转为负面</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cd34366e51df4667495f2da8c862e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Two weeks ago I wrote about Roku saying,</p><p><blockquote>两周前我写到Roku说，</blockquote></p><p> <i>Having to pay 11x forward sales doesn't leave new shareholders to the stock with a large margin of safety. Best to avoid this name for now.[...]</i> <i>I believe that the market has underreacted to Roku's near-term prospects.</i> Interestingly, even though the market's reaction post-earnings was muted, I took a rare bearish stance on Roku. Given that I've been a Roku shareholder in the past and that I was lucky enough to get out with meaningful gains, I have very positive associations with the company's prospects. To paraphrase Daniel Kahneman, I've been primed to like the stock.</p><p><blockquote><i>必须支付11倍的远期销售额并没有给新股东留下很大的安全边际。最好暂时避免使用这个名字。[...]</i><i>我认为市场对Roku近期前景反应不足。</i>有趣的是，尽管财报发布后市场反应平淡，但我对Roku采取了罕见的看跌立场。鉴于我过去一直是Roku的股东，并且我很幸运地获得了有意义的收益，我对公司的前景有着非常积极的联系。套用丹尼尔·卡尼曼的话，我已经准备好喜欢这只股票了。</blockquote></p><p> So let's unpack why I'm bearish this name.</p><p><blockquote>所以让我们来解释一下为什么我看跌这个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Roku's Revenue Growth Rates Point to Maturing Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Roku的收入增长率表明业务正在成熟</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e0a314a4af96b13a81ea3a6d90f377\" tg-width=\"1381\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Throughout 2020 and into early 2021, Roku's growth rates were incredibly strong. What's more, as I've often stated, as long as the share price is going up, nobody is going to ask difficult questions about their investment.</p><p><blockquote>在整个2020年和2021年初，Roku的增长率非常强劲。更重要的是，正如我经常说的，只要股价上涨，就没有人会问有关他们投资的难题。</blockquote></p><p> But when the share price starts to turn lower, then, all of a sudden shareholders start to get anxious and become all-too-eager to book gains that they hold. This causes selling, which in turn, forces shareholders to revisit the question of why they are holding onto the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但当股价开始走低时，股东突然开始变得焦虑，并变得过于急于记账他们持有的收益。这会导致抛售，进而迫使股东重新审视他们为何持有股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> And the problem here has less to do with Roku's growth rates into Q4 2021 but everything to do with what Roku's growth rates will be in 2022? That's the key to this investment thesis, can Roku's growth rates stabilize in the high-30s%? Or will its growth rates start to dip closer to the low-30s% and high 20s%?</p><p><blockquote>这里的问题与Roku 2021年第四季度的增长率关系不大，但与Roku 2022年的增长率有关？这就是这篇投资论文的关键，Roku的增长率能否稳定在30%以上？或者它的增长率会开始下降到30%的低点和20%的高点吗？</blockquote></p><p> These two different scenarios have dramatic implications on the multiple that investors would be willing to pay for the stock. But I get ahead of myself, first let's take a step back and understand that not all revenues from Roku have the same worth.</p><p><blockquote>这两种不同的情况对投资者愿意为该股票支付的倍数产生了巨大影响。但我想得太多了，首先让我们后退一步，明白并非所有来自Roku的收入都具有相同的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not All Revenues Are the Same</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有收入都是相同的</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad93e6af6387997cc0513966ece12ff2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author's calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Roku's revenues are made up of two different segments, it has its Platform business that carries all the appeal, and it has its Player segment.</p><p><blockquote>Roku的收入由两个不同的部分组成，一个是具有所有吸引力的平台业务，另一个是玩家部分。</blockquote></p><p> The Player segment comes from streaming players, in essence, hardware products, that have historically been sold at close to breakeven to bring more households onto its network.</p><p><blockquote>播放器部分来自流媒体播放器，本质上是硬件产品，历来以接近盈亏平衡的价格出售，以吸引更多家庭进入其网络。</blockquote></p><p> The more Players that are sold, the more active users Roku gets onto its Platform, the more profitable the company as a whole becomes.</p><p><blockquote>出售的玩家越多，Roku平台上的活跃用户就越多，整个公司的利润就越高。</blockquote></p><p> In that light, it makes a lot of sense to even incur minor losses on the sale of its hardware products, just to get eyeballs onto its network.</p><p><blockquote>从这个角度来看，即使在硬件产品的销售上遭受微小的损失，只是为了吸引眼球到其网络上，也是很有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcf8da1983731fd568884e01a9ff571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **author's estimate</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, management stated that,</p><p><blockquote>在收益看涨期权上，管理层表示，</blockquote></p><p> <i>The global supply chain disruptions will likely impact the overall holiday season in terms of shipping delays, product availability issues and product price increases.</i> Thus, I've estimated that the pricing headwinds from Q3 remain into Q4, the all-important holiday season. This could translate into slightly better or slightly worse gross margins for its Player segment, but I believe it's probably the right ballpark, at negative 15% gross margins.</p><p><blockquote><i>全球供应链中断可能会在运输延误、产品供应问题和产品价格上涨方面影响整个假期。</i>因此，我估计第三季度的定价阻力将持续到第四季度，即最重要的假期。这可能会转化为其玩家细分市场的毛利率略好或略差，但我相信这可能是正确的，毛利率为负15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So Why to Price the Hardware so Cheaply?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，为什么要把硬件定价这么便宜呢？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a6e78576e8a96f6d533382dc13bcc8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author's calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Roku sets the hardware cheaply to drive an increase in active accounts. But as you can see here, the sequential growth in active accounts is steadily decreasing from an 11% increase sequentially from Q3 2020 into Q4 2021 to just a 2% increase sequentially from Q2 2021 into Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Roku以低廉的价格设置硬件，以推动活跃账户的增加。但正如您在这里看到的，活跃账户的环比增长正在稳步下降，从2020年第三季度到2021年第四季度的环比增长11%，到2021年第二季度到2021年第三季度的环比增长仅2%。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The point here is not to get too focused on the actual numbers of active users, but to understand the overall trajectory</i>. It appears that the growth in active users has been slowing down for a while, and if that's going to persist, that further reinforces the thesis that Roku's strong revenue growth rates are starting to mature.</p><p><blockquote><i>这里的重点不是过于关注活跃用户的实际数量，而是要了解整体发展轨迹</i>活跃用户的增长似乎已经放缓了一段时间，如果这种情况持续下去，这进一步强化了Roku强劲的收入增长率开始成熟的论点。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation - Understanding Roku's Multiple</p><p><blockquote>估值-了解Roku的市盈率</blockquote></p><p> As I've already highlighted, only approximately 85% of Roku's revenues actually carry any profits, that is its Platform revenues.</p><p><blockquote>正如我已经强调的，Roku只有大约85%的收入实际上有任何利润，即其平台收入。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, if we use analysts' estimates that Roku's revenues reach $3.8 billion of revenues in 2022, that means that only approximately $3.2 billion of those revenues are actually worth anything.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果我们使用分析师的估计，即Roku的收入在2022年将达到38亿美元，这意味着这些收入中只有大约32亿美元真正有价值。</blockquote></p><p> Of its Platform revenues, the gross margins typically oscillate around 65%. This is meaningfully lower than Pinterest's (PINS), which carry nearly 80% gross margins, but higher than Snap's (SNAP) which has around 55% gross margins.</p><p><blockquote>在其平台收入中，毛利率通常在65%左右波动。这明显低于毛利率近80%的Pinterest(PINS)，但高于毛利率约55%的SNAP(SNAP)。</blockquote></p><p> This implies that investors are paying 10x next year's revenues for Roku's advertising or its Platform business, compared with 9x for Pinterest's and 15x forward sales for Snap.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着投资者为Roku的广告或平台业务支付的费用是明年收入的10倍，而Pinterest为9倍，Snap为15倍。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, altogether, it's difficult to argue that even now, after this difficult sell-off in its share price, that Roku is priced in the bargain basement.</p><p><blockquote>因此，总而言之，即使是现在，在股价经历了这次艰难的抛售之后，Roku的定价也很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the end of my previous article, I concluded with,</p><p><blockquote>在我上一篇文章的结尾，我总结道，</blockquote></p><p> <i>When investing, don't seek out ideas that with 50/50 or even 60/40 chances of working out positively. Seek out ideas that have a 70/30 chance of working out favorably. I hope this works out well for you. Good luck.</i> I stand by that comment today. Paying 10x forward sales for Roku's Platform business requires a very high level of conviction that its revenue growth rates will be able to reignite back up to 40% CAGR. I fear that will be far from easy, particularly as we look out to H1 2022 and the very tough comps Roku will have against this year's H1 2021 period.</p><p><blockquote><i>投资时，不要寻找有50/50甚至60/40机会积极实现的想法。寻找有70/30机会成功的想法。我希望这对你有好处。祝你好运。</i>我袖手旁观今天的评论。为Roku平台业务支付10倍的远期销售额需要非常高的信念，即其收入增长率将能够重新点燃高达40%的复合年增长率。我担心这绝非易事，特别是当我们展望2022年上半年以及Roku与今年2021年上半年的艰难竞争时。</blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, I believe that there are better investment opportunities to deploy my capital into right now.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我相信现在有更好的投资机会可以部署我的资本。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roku Stock: Looking Ahead, This Will Be Painful<blockquote>Roku股票：展望未来，这将是痛苦的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoku Stock: Looking Ahead, This Will Be Painful<blockquote>Roku股票：展望未来，这将是痛苦的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-18 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Roku's decelerating revenue growth rates are one part of the story.</li> <li>The other part is that active accounts growth is slowing down, which has an overarching impact on the business's prospects going forward.</li> <li>Why ROKU stock is still not in the bargain basement, even now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3a4aa7b90dc3cc66685ca9d6dbaa3b6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"907\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>simpson33/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Roku收入增长率放缓是原因之一。</li><li>另一部分是活跃账户增长正在放缓，这对业务的未来前景产生了重大影响。</li><li>为什么即使是现在，ROKU的股票仍然不便宜。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>simpson33/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Roku (ROKU) has fallen out of favor with investors, with shareholders selling the stock at a rapid clip.</p><p><blockquote>Roku（Roku）已经失去了投资者的青睐，股东迅速出售该股票。</blockquote></p><p> But as we go through, I make the case that investors shouldn't be too quick to buy the dip here. Indeed, I contend that paying 10x forward sales for the Platform business is not as cheap as it looks, particularly given that the growth in active accounts is slowing down.</p><p><blockquote>但随着我们的经历，我认为投资者不应该太快逢低买入。事实上，我认为为平台业务支付10倍的远期销售额并不像看起来那么便宜，特别是考虑到活跃账户的增长正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investors Sentiment Turns Negative For ROKU</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ROKU投资者情绪转为负面</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cd34366e51df4667495f2da8c862e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Two weeks ago I wrote about Roku saying,</p><p><blockquote>两周前我写到Roku说，</blockquote></p><p> <i>Having to pay 11x forward sales doesn't leave new shareholders to the stock with a large margin of safety. Best to avoid this name for now.[...]</i> <i>I believe that the market has underreacted to Roku's near-term prospects.</i> Interestingly, even though the market's reaction post-earnings was muted, I took a rare bearish stance on Roku. Given that I've been a Roku shareholder in the past and that I was lucky enough to get out with meaningful gains, I have very positive associations with the company's prospects. To paraphrase Daniel Kahneman, I've been primed to like the stock.</p><p><blockquote><i>必须支付11倍的远期销售额并没有给新股东留下很大的安全边际。最好暂时避免使用这个名字。[...]</i><i>我认为市场对Roku近期前景反应不足。</i>有趣的是，尽管财报发布后市场反应平淡，但我对Roku采取了罕见的看跌立场。鉴于我过去一直是Roku的股东，并且我很幸运地获得了有意义的收益，我对公司的前景有着非常积极的联系。套用丹尼尔·卡尼曼的话，我已经准备好喜欢这只股票了。</blockquote></p><p> So let's unpack why I'm bearish this name.</p><p><blockquote>所以让我们来解释一下为什么我看跌这个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Roku's Revenue Growth Rates Point to Maturing Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Roku的收入增长率表明业务正在成熟</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1e0a314a4af96b13a81ea3a6d90f377\" tg-width=\"1381\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Throughout 2020 and into early 2021, Roku's growth rates were incredibly strong. What's more, as I've often stated, as long as the share price is going up, nobody is going to ask difficult questions about their investment.</p><p><blockquote>在整个2020年和2021年初，Roku的增长率非常强劲。更重要的是，正如我经常说的，只要股价上涨，就没有人会问有关他们投资的难题。</blockquote></p><p> But when the share price starts to turn lower, then, all of a sudden shareholders start to get anxious and become all-too-eager to book gains that they hold. This causes selling, which in turn, forces shareholders to revisit the question of why they are holding onto the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但当股价开始走低时，股东突然开始变得焦虑，并变得过于急于记账他们持有的收益。这会导致抛售，进而迫使股东重新审视他们为何持有股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> And the problem here has less to do with Roku's growth rates into Q4 2021 but everything to do with what Roku's growth rates will be in 2022? That's the key to this investment thesis, can Roku's growth rates stabilize in the high-30s%? Or will its growth rates start to dip closer to the low-30s% and high 20s%?</p><p><blockquote>这里的问题与Roku 2021年第四季度的增长率关系不大，但与Roku 2022年的增长率有关？这就是这篇投资论文的关键，Roku的增长率能否稳定在30%以上？或者它的增长率会开始下降到30%的低点和20%的高点吗？</blockquote></p><p> These two different scenarios have dramatic implications on the multiple that investors would be willing to pay for the stock. But I get ahead of myself, first let's take a step back and understand that not all revenues from Roku have the same worth.</p><p><blockquote>这两种不同的情况对投资者愿意为该股票支付的倍数产生了巨大影响。但我想得太多了，首先让我们后退一步，明白并非所有来自Roku的收入都具有相同的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not All Revenues Are the Same</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有收入都是相同的</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad93e6af6387997cc0513966ece12ff2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author's calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Roku's revenues are made up of two different segments, it has its Platform business that carries all the appeal, and it has its Player segment.</p><p><blockquote>Roku的收入由两个不同的部分组成，一个是具有所有吸引力的平台业务，另一个是玩家部分。</blockquote></p><p> The Player segment comes from streaming players, in essence, hardware products, that have historically been sold at close to breakeven to bring more households onto its network.</p><p><blockquote>播放器部分来自流媒体播放器，本质上是硬件产品，历来以接近盈亏平衡的价格出售，以吸引更多家庭进入其网络。</blockquote></p><p> The more Players that are sold, the more active users Roku gets onto its Platform, the more profitable the company as a whole becomes.</p><p><blockquote>出售的玩家越多，Roku平台上的活跃用户就越多，整个公司的利润就越高。</blockquote></p><p> In that light, it makes a lot of sense to even incur minor losses on the sale of its hardware products, just to get eyeballs onto its network.</p><p><blockquote>从这个角度来看，即使在硬件产品的销售上遭受微小的损失，只是为了吸引眼球到其网络上，也是很有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcf8da1983731fd568884e01a9ff571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **author's estimate</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, management stated that,</p><p><blockquote>在收益看涨期权上，管理层表示，</blockquote></p><p> <i>The global supply chain disruptions will likely impact the overall holiday season in terms of shipping delays, product availability issues and product price increases.</i> Thus, I've estimated that the pricing headwinds from Q3 remain into Q4, the all-important holiday season. This could translate into slightly better or slightly worse gross margins for its Player segment, but I believe it's probably the right ballpark, at negative 15% gross margins.</p><p><blockquote><i>全球供应链中断可能会在运输延误、产品供应问题和产品价格上涨方面影响整个假期。</i>因此，我估计第三季度的定价阻力将持续到第四季度，即最重要的假期。这可能会转化为其玩家细分市场的毛利率略好或略差，但我相信这可能是正确的，毛利率为负15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So Why to Price the Hardware so Cheaply?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，为什么要把硬件定价这么便宜呢？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a6e78576e8a96f6d533382dc13bcc8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author's calculations</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Roku sets the hardware cheaply to drive an increase in active accounts. But as you can see here, the sequential growth in active accounts is steadily decreasing from an 11% increase sequentially from Q3 2020 into Q4 2021 to just a 2% increase sequentially from Q2 2021 into Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Roku以低廉的价格设置硬件，以推动活跃账户的增加。但正如您在这里看到的，活跃账户的环比增长正在稳步下降，从2020年第三季度到2021年第四季度的环比增长11%，到2021年第二季度到2021年第三季度的环比增长仅2%。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The point here is not to get too focused on the actual numbers of active users, but to understand the overall trajectory</i>. It appears that the growth in active users has been slowing down for a while, and if that's going to persist, that further reinforces the thesis that Roku's strong revenue growth rates are starting to mature.</p><p><blockquote><i>这里的重点不是过于关注活跃用户的实际数量，而是要了解整体发展轨迹</i>活跃用户的增长似乎已经放缓了一段时间，如果这种情况持续下去，这进一步强化了Roku强劲的收入增长率开始成熟的论点。</blockquote></p><p> Valuation - Understanding Roku's Multiple</p><p><blockquote>估值-了解Roku的市盈率</blockquote></p><p> As I've already highlighted, only approximately 85% of Roku's revenues actually carry any profits, that is its Platform revenues.</p><p><blockquote>正如我已经强调的，Roku只有大约85%的收入实际上有任何利润，即其平台收入。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, if we use analysts' estimates that Roku's revenues reach $3.8 billion of revenues in 2022, that means that only approximately $3.2 billion of those revenues are actually worth anything.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果我们使用分析师的估计，即Roku的收入在2022年将达到38亿美元，这意味着这些收入中只有大约32亿美元真正有价值。</blockquote></p><p> Of its Platform revenues, the gross margins typically oscillate around 65%. This is meaningfully lower than Pinterest's (PINS), which carry nearly 80% gross margins, but higher than Snap's (SNAP) which has around 55% gross margins.</p><p><blockquote>在其平台收入中，毛利率通常在65%左右波动。这明显低于毛利率近80%的Pinterest(PINS)，但高于毛利率约55%的SNAP(SNAP)。</blockquote></p><p> This implies that investors are paying 10x next year's revenues for Roku's advertising or its Platform business, compared with 9x for Pinterest's and 15x forward sales for Snap.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着投资者为Roku的广告或平台业务支付的费用是明年收入的10倍，而Pinterest为9倍，Snap为15倍。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, altogether, it's difficult to argue that even now, after this difficult sell-off in its share price, that Roku is priced in the bargain basement.</p><p><blockquote>因此，总而言之，即使是现在，在股价经历了这次艰难的抛售之后，Roku的定价也很便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the end of my previous article, I concluded with,</p><p><blockquote>在我上一篇文章的结尾，我总结道，</blockquote></p><p> <i>When investing, don't seek out ideas that with 50/50 or even 60/40 chances of working out positively. Seek out ideas that have a 70/30 chance of working out favorably. I hope this works out well for you. Good luck.</i> I stand by that comment today. Paying 10x forward sales for Roku's Platform business requires a very high level of conviction that its revenue growth rates will be able to reignite back up to 40% CAGR. I fear that will be far from easy, particularly as we look out to H1 2022 and the very tough comps Roku will have against this year's H1 2021 period.</p><p><blockquote><i>投资时，不要寻找有50/50甚至60/40机会积极实现的想法。寻找有70/30机会成功的想法。我希望这对你有好处。祝你好运。</i>我袖手旁观今天的评论。为Roku平台业务支付10倍的远期销售额需要非常高的信念，即其收入增长率将能够重新点燃高达40%的复合年增长率。我担心这绝非易事，特别是当我们展望2022年上半年以及Roku与今年2021年上半年的艰难竞争时。</blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, I believe that there are better investment opportunities to deploy my capital into right now.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我相信现在有更好的投资机会可以部署我的资本。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470446-roku-stock-decelerating-revenue-growth-active-accounts-growth-slowing\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470446-roku-stock-decelerating-revenue-growth-active-accounts-growth-slowing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190005862","content_text":"Summary\n\nRoku's decelerating revenue growth rates are one part of the story.\nThe other part is that active accounts growth is slowing down, which has an overarching impact on the business's prospects going forward.\nWhy ROKU stock is still not in the bargain basement, even now.\n\nsimpson33/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nRoku (ROKU) has fallen out of favor with investors, with shareholders selling the stock at a rapid clip.\nBut as we go through, I make the case that investors shouldn't be too quick to buy the dip here. Indeed, I contend that paying 10x forward sales for the Platform business is not as cheap as it looks, particularly given that the growth in active accounts is slowing down.\nInvestors Sentiment Turns Negative For ROKU\nData by YCharts\nTwo weeks ago I wrote about Roku saying,\n\nHaving to pay 11x forward sales doesn't leave new shareholders to the stock with a large margin of safety. Best to avoid this name for now.[...]\n\n\nI believe that the market has underreacted to Roku's near-term prospects.\n\nInterestingly, even though the market's reaction post-earnings was muted, I took a rare bearish stance on Roku. Given that I've been a Roku shareholder in the past and that I was lucky enough to get out with meaningful gains, I have very positive associations with the company's prospects. To paraphrase Daniel Kahneman, I've been primed to like the stock.\nSo let's unpack why I'm bearish this name.\nRoku's Revenue Growth Rates Point to Maturing Business\n\nThroughout 2020 and into early 2021, Roku's growth rates were incredibly strong. What's more, as I've often stated, as long as the share price is going up, nobody is going to ask difficult questions about their investment.\nBut when the share price starts to turn lower, then, all of a sudden shareholders start to get anxious and become all-too-eager to book gains that they hold. This causes selling, which in turn, forces shareholders to revisit the question of why they are holding onto the stock.\nAnd the problem here has less to do with Roku's growth rates into Q4 2021 but everything to do with what Roku's growth rates will be in 2022? That's the key to this investment thesis, can Roku's growth rates stabilize in the high-30s%? Or will its growth rates start to dip closer to the low-30s% and high 20s%?\nThese two different scenarios have dramatic implications on the multiple that investors would be willing to pay for the stock. But I get ahead of myself, first let's take a step back and understand that not all revenues from Roku have the same worth.\nNot All Revenues Are the Same\nSource: author's calculations\nRoku's revenues are made up of two different segments, it has its Platform business that carries all the appeal, and it has its Player segment.\nThe Player segment comes from streaming players, in essence, hardware products, that have historically been sold at close to breakeven to bring more households onto its network.\nThe more Players that are sold, the more active users Roku gets onto its Platform, the more profitable the company as a whole becomes.\nIn that light, it makes a lot of sense to even incur minor losses on the sale of its hardware products, just to get eyeballs onto its network.\nSource: author's calculations; **author's estimate\nDuring the earnings call, management stated that,\n\nThe global supply chain disruptions will likely impact the overall holiday season in terms of shipping delays, product availability issues and product price increases.\n\nThus, I've estimated that the pricing headwinds from Q3 remain into Q4, the all-important holiday season. This could translate into slightly better or slightly worse gross margins for its Player segment, but I believe it's probably the right ballpark, at negative 15% gross margins.\nSo Why to Price the Hardware so Cheaply?\nSource: author's calculations\nRoku sets the hardware cheaply to drive an increase in active accounts. But as you can see here, the sequential growth in active accounts is steadily decreasing from an 11% increase sequentially from Q3 2020 into Q4 2021 to just a 2% increase sequentially from Q2 2021 into Q3 2021.\nThe point here is not to get too focused on the actual numbers of active users, but to understand the overall trajectory. It appears that the growth in active users has been slowing down for a while, and if that's going to persist, that further reinforces the thesis that Roku's strong revenue growth rates are starting to mature.\nValuation - Understanding Roku's Multiple\nAs I've already highlighted, only approximately 85% of Roku's revenues actually carry any profits, that is its Platform revenues.\nThus, if we use analysts' estimates that Roku's revenues reach $3.8 billion of revenues in 2022, that means that only approximately $3.2 billion of those revenues are actually worth anything.\nOf its Platform revenues, the gross margins typically oscillate around 65%. This is meaningfully lower than Pinterest's (PINS), which carry nearly 80% gross margins, but higher than Snap's (SNAP) which has around 55% gross margins.\nThis implies that investors are paying 10x next year's revenues for Roku's advertising or its Platform business, compared with 9x for Pinterest's and 15x forward sales for Snap.\nThus, altogether, it's difficult to argue that even now, after this difficult sell-off in its share price, that Roku is priced in the bargain basement.\nThe Bottom Line\nAt the end of my previous article, I concluded with,\n\nWhen investing, don't seek out ideas that with 50/50 or even 60/40 chances of working out positively. Seek out ideas that have a 70/30 chance of working out favorably. I hope this works out well for you. Good luck.\n\nI stand by that comment today. Paying 10x forward sales for Roku's Platform business requires a very high level of conviction that its revenue growth rates will be able to reignite back up to 40% CAGR. I fear that will be far from easy, particularly as we look out to H1 2022 and the very tough comps Roku will have against this year's H1 2021 period.\nIn conclusion, I believe that there are better investment opportunities to deploy my capital into right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/878738195"}
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