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2021-11-27
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Apple Stock: Taking A Bite Out Of The EV Market<blockquote>苹果股票：分一杯羹电动汽车市场</blockquote>
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(NASDAQ:AAPL) has long toyed with the idea of launching its own electric vehicle (“EV”) line. The company has titillated analysts and investors for years with the prospect, yet time and again it ended up coming to nothing. So, when a fresh round of rumors began to swirl this fall, I initially viewed them with a healthy degree of skepticism.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）长期以来一直在考虑推出自己的电动汽车（“EV”）产品线。多年来，该公司的前景一直让分析师和投资者兴奋不已，但一次又一次地以失败告终。因此，当今年秋天新一轮谣言开始流传时，我最初对它们持健康程度的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the rumors proved remarkably persistent, gaining steam thanks to rising interest among Wall Street analysts. The rumors became far more concrete earlier this month in light of Bloomberg’s reporting on Apple’s internal plans, which call for the Apple Car to launch in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事实证明，这些谣言非常持久，由于华尔街分析师的兴趣日益浓厚，谣言愈演愈烈。本月早些时候，彭博社报道了苹果的内部计划，看涨期权将于 2025 年推出苹果汽车，这让谣言变得更加具体。</blockquote></p><p> It is easy to understand why investors and analysts would be excited about an Apple EV. On paper, the idea of the Apple Car is unquestionably exciting. In reality, however, the economics of the Apple Car may leave much to be desired.</p><p><blockquote>很容易理解为什么投资者和分析师会对苹果电动汽车感到兴奋。从纸面上看，苹果汽车的想法无疑令人兴奋。然而，实际上，苹果汽车的经济性可能还有很多不足之处。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s discuss.</p><p><blockquote>我们来讨论一下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Riding On High Hopes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寄予厚望</b></blockquote></p><p> To understand the Apple Car, we must first understand the EV space. EV companies are clearly enjoying a moment in the sun. The EV bull market has been fueled in no small part by the bubbly analyst forecasts and research notes coming out of Wall Street with increasing regularity in recent years. This bullishness has already seeped into analyst coverage of the Apple Car, especially that of Bernstein’s IT Hardware and Electric Vehicles team. In fact, it was Bernstein’s EV analysts who really sparked the latest revival of interest in Apple’s EV ambitions. In February, they highlighted Apple’s potential development partners, name-checking Volkswagen AG (OTCPK:VWAGY) in particular. Their August research update fanned the market flame further, laying out projections of exponential growth. According to Bernstein, Apple Car sales can reach 1.5 million vehicles per year, with annual revenue to the tune of $75 billion, in under a decade.</p><p><blockquote>要了解苹果汽车，我们首先必须了解电动汽车领域。电动汽车公司显然正在享受阳光下的时刻。近年来，华尔街越来越频繁地发布泡沫丰富的分析师预测和研究报告在很大程度上推动了电动汽车牛市。这种乐观情绪已经渗透到分析师对苹果汽车的报道中，尤其是伯恩斯坦的 IT 硬件和电动汽车团队。事实上，真正引发人们对苹果电动汽车雄心兴趣的是伯恩斯坦的电动汽车分析师。今年 2 月，他们重点介绍了苹果的潜在发展合作伙伴，尤其是正在核实名称的大众汽车公司（OTCPK:VWAGY）。他们8月份的研究更新进一步助长了市场火焰，预测了指数级增长。据 Bernstein 称，在不到十年的时间里，苹果汽车销量每年可达到 150 万辆，年收入可达 750 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, financial forecasts about the Apple Car mean little if there is no Apple Car. Apple’s decision to play its cards close to the vest has only served to fuel wild speculation. On Nov. 18th, Bloomberg offered a welcome dose of new information. According to Bloomberg, Apple has settled on both a strategy and a timeline for the Apple Car:</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果没有苹果汽车，关于苹果汽车的财务预测就没有什么意义。苹果决定在背心附近出牌，这只会助长疯狂的猜测。11月18日，彭博提供了一些受欢迎的新信息。据彭博社报道，苹果已经确定了苹果汽车的战略和时间表：</blockquote></p><p> For the past several years, Apple’s car team had explored two simultaneous paths: creating a model with limited self-driving capabilities focused on steering and acceleration––similar to many current cars––or a version with full self-driving ability that doesn’t require human intervention. Under the effort’s new leader––Apple Watch software executive Kevin Lynch––engineers are now concentrating on the second option. Lynch is pushing for a car with a full self-driving system in the first version, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private...Apple is internally targeting a launch of its self-driving car in four years, faster than the five- to seven-year timeline that some engineers had been planning for earlier this year. But the timing is fluid, and hitting that 2025 target is dependent on the company’s ability to complete the self-driving system -- an ambitious task on that schedule. If Apple is unable to reach its goal, it could either delay a release or initially sell a car with lesser technology. Unsurprisingly, this Bloomberg revelation has sparked a flurry of analyst commentary. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley (MS) has been especially visible in recent days discussing the Apple Car in general, and its planned autonomous driving capabilities in particular. Remarkably, Jonas’ forecast is even more bullish than Bernstein’s,projecting 1.8 million vehicle sales in 2030(all of which he expects to be fully autonomous).</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，苹果的汽车团队同时探索了两条道路：打造一款自动驾驶能力有限的车型，重点是转向和加速--类似于目前的许多汽车--或者打造一款无需人工干预的全自动驾驶车型。在这项工作的新领导者--苹果观察软件公司高管凯文-林奇（Kevin Lynch）的领导下，工程师们现在正集中精力研究第二个方案。知情人士表示，林奇正在推动在第一个版本中推出一款配备全自动驾驶系统的汽车，但由于讨论是私下进行的，他们要求匿名……苹果内部的目标是在四年内推出自动驾驶汽车，比一些工程师今年早些时候计划的五到七年的时间表更快。但时间是不稳定的，能否实现 2025 年的目标取决于公司完成自动驾驶系统的能力--这是该时间表上一项雄心勃勃的任务。如果苹果无法实现其目标，它可以推迟发布或最初销售技术较差的汽车。不出所料，彭博社的这一披露引发了一系列分析师评论。摩根士丹利 (MS) 的 Adam Jonas 最近几天特别引人注目，他讨论了苹果汽车的总体情况，特别是其计划中的自动驾驶功能。值得注意的是，乔纳斯的预测比伯恩斯坦的预测还要乐观，他预计到 2030 年汽车销量将达到 180 万辆（他预计所有汽车都将完全自动驾驶）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Economic Reality Check</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济现实检验</b></blockquote></p><p> If Apple is genuinely serious about making the Apple Car a reality at long last, I see little risk of it outright failing. Bernstein made this point quite clearly in August:</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果真的认真考虑最终让苹果汽车成为现实，我认为它彻底失败的风险很小。伯恩斯坦在八月份非常清楚地表明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Given its revenue base, few addressable markets are sizeable enough to impact Apple’s financials, but the auto sector offers a uniquely large, addressable consumer market...A successful EV launch from Apple would add a formidable, well-capitalized competitor to the automotive industry. Apple clearly has the financial resources, brand power, and know-how to carve out a healthy piece of the EV pie for itself if that is what it wants to do. But confidence in Apple’s ability to make a successful EV play is not what really matters, at least from an investment standpoint. The real question is why Apple would even want to do it in the first place.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于苹果的收入基础，很少有市场规模足以影响其财务状况，但汽车行业提供了一个独特的庞大、可定位的消费市场.....苹果成功推出电动汽车将为汽车行业增加一个强大的、资本雄厚的竞争对手。如果苹果想要的话，它显然拥有财力、品牌影响力和专业知识，可以为自己在电动汽车蛋糕中分得一块健康的份额。但至少从投资的角度来看，对苹果成功开展电动汽车业务的能力的信心并不是真正重要的。真正的问题是，为什么苹果一开始就想这么做。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s core (pardon the pun) value proposition is its consumer tech and digital services empire. This business has become a veritable cash-printing machine. Even after spending a monumental $85.5 billion on stock buybacks in 2021 thus far, Apple still has $62.6 billion in cash on hand. Thatcash pile is the product of a business with incredibly high margins operating in an industry over which Apple can exert considerable market power.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的核心（请原谅双关语）价值主张是其消费技术和数字服务帝国。这项业务已经成为名副其实的印钞机。即使在 2021 年迄今为止花费了 855 亿美元进行股票回购后，苹果手头仍有 626 亿美元现金。Thatcash pile 是一家利润率高得令人难以置信的企业的产物，该行业苹果可以对其施加相当大的市场力量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dc54f5014c60576245a28b68c559d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Venturing into the automotive industry will force Apple to face an entirely different kind of beast, economically speaking. Apple currently boasts gross and net profit margins of 46.6% and 23.7%. Among global automakers, meanwhile, the industry average gross margin is 27.9%, while net margin is a wafer-thin 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>从经济角度来说，进军汽车行业将迫使苹果面对一种完全不同的野兽。苹果目前的毛利率和净利润率分别为46.6%和23.7%。与此同时，在全球汽车制造商中，行业平均毛利率为 27.9%，而净利润率仅为 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e069c551673c4a5d3d5c960aaa5bc447\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CSIMarket.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CSIMarket.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple’s foray into cars would almost certainly mean more capital investment and thinner margins overall, with the mix set to get worse the larger its automotive division becomes relative to its wider business. That hardly sounds like a recipe for value creation.</p><p><blockquote>苹果进军汽车领域几乎肯定意味着更多的资本投资和更薄的整体利润率，随着其汽车部门相对于更广泛的业务规模越大，这种情况将会变得更糟。这听起来不像是创造价值的秘诀。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor’s Eye View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者视角</b></blockquote></p><p> Given the economic realities prevailing in the automotive sector, it is difficult to understand why Apple would want to be involved in it at all. While there may be something to the argument that autonomous vehicles can fundamentally transform the economics of the automotive industry, it is far from clear whether self-driving cars and robotaxis will improve margins substantially. Indeed, there is agrowing body of research calling this belief into question.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于汽车行业普遍存在的经济现实，很难理解为什么苹果想要参与其中。虽然自动驾驶汽车可以从根本上改变汽车行业的经济，但自动驾驶汽车和机器人出租车是否会大幅提高利润率还远未可知。事实上，越来越多的研究对这种信念提出了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it is the bull market in EV stocks that has enticed Apple back to the table. After all, investor excitement has reached such a fever pitch that even pre-revenue EV startups can now claim valuations rivalling those of established automakers netting billions of dollars in profit annually. Right now, Ford Motor Co. (F) and Lucid (LCID) have virtually the same market capitalization, despite Ford having posted $1.8 billion in net income for Q3 2021 compared to Lucid’s $7 million net loss. Perhaps Apple perceives the Apple Car as an opportunity for an upward revaluation of its enterprise even if it ultimately compresses the company’s overall profit margins and cash generation potential.</p><p><blockquote>也许是电动汽车股票的牛市吸引了苹果重返谈判桌。毕竟，投资者的兴奋已经达到了如此高的程度，以至于即使是营收前的电动汽车初创公司现在也可以声称其估值可与每年净利润数十亿美元的老牌汽车制造商相媲美。目前，福特汽车公司（F）和 Lucid（LCID）的市值几乎相同，尽管福特公布的 2021 年第三季度净利润为 18 亿美元，而 Lucid 的净亏损为 700 万美元。也许苹果将苹果汽车视为对其企业进行向上重估的机会，即使它最终会压缩公司的整体利润率和现金创造潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I see little about the automotive sector – EV or otherwise – that would make it a natural fit for Apple. While I suspect development of the Apple Car over the next few years will act as a positive catalyst for Apple’s stock, it will end up being more of a liability than an asset.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我几乎看不到汽车行业——无论是电动汽车还是其他汽车——这将使其自然适合苹果。虽然我怀疑苹果汽车在未来几年的开发将对苹果的股票起到积极的催化剂作用，但它最终将更多的是一种负债，而不是一种资产。</blockquote></p><p> In my assessment, investors buying Apple on the basis of its EV future would be wise to think again.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，根据电动汽车未来购买苹果的投资者应该三思而后行。</blockquote></p><p> Trade carefully!</p><p><blockquote>交易谨慎!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Taking A Bite Out Of The EV Market<blockquote>苹果股票：分一杯羹电动汽车市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Taking A Bite Out Of The EV Market<blockquote>苹果股票：分一杯羹电动汽车市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-26 14:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Apple has spent years working on its own electric vehicle and autonomous driving system.</li> <li>After many fits and starts, the project appears to be back on track; the Apple Car is now expected to debut in 2025.</li> <li>Analysts and investors have responded positively toward Apple's EV ambitions thus far; perhaps unsurprising given the EV bullish frenzy.</li> <li>Apple may benefit from mounting excitement as the project moves ahead, but the long-term economic case for the Apple Car is suspect.</li> <li>If Apple commits to building a significant EV footprint, it will likely result in lower margins and higher costs for the company in the long run.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82b737572f0f8a33c2e322a500cf1d98\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NNehring/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果花了数年时间研发自己的电动汽车和自动驾驶系统。</li><li>经过多次磨合，该项目似乎又回到了正轨；苹果汽车目前预计将于 2025 年首次亮相。</li><li>迄今为止，分析师和投资者对苹果的电动汽车雄心做出了积极反应；考虑到电动汽车的看涨狂潮，这也许并不奇怪。</li><li>随着项目的推进，苹果可能会从日益增长的兴奋中受益，但苹果汽车的长期经济前景值得怀疑。</li><li>如果苹果承诺建立重要的电动汽车足迹，从长远来看，这可能会导致公司利润率下降和成本上升。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NNehring/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is no secret that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has long toyed with the idea of launching its own electric vehicle (“EV”) line. The company has titillated analysts and investors for years with the prospect, yet time and again it ended up coming to nothing. So, when a fresh round of rumors began to swirl this fall, I initially viewed them with a healthy degree of skepticism.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，苹果公司（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）长期以来一直在考虑推出自己的电动汽车（“EV”）产品线。多年来，该公司的前景一直让分析师和投资者兴奋不已，但一次又一次地以失败告终。因此，当今年秋天新一轮谣言开始流传时，我最初对它们持健康程度的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the rumors proved remarkably persistent, gaining steam thanks to rising interest among Wall Street analysts. The rumors became far more concrete earlier this month in light of Bloomberg’s reporting on Apple’s internal plans, which call for the Apple Car to launch in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事实证明，这些谣言非常持久，由于华尔街分析师的兴趣日益浓厚，谣言愈演愈烈。本月早些时候，彭博社报道了苹果的内部计划，看涨期权将于 2025 年推出苹果汽车，这让谣言变得更加具体。</blockquote></p><p> It is easy to understand why investors and analysts would be excited about an Apple EV. On paper, the idea of the Apple Car is unquestionably exciting. In reality, however, the economics of the Apple Car may leave much to be desired.</p><p><blockquote>很容易理解为什么投资者和分析师会对苹果电动汽车感到兴奋。从纸面上看，苹果汽车的想法无疑令人兴奋。然而，实际上，苹果汽车的经济性可能还有很多不足之处。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s discuss.</p><p><blockquote>我们来讨论一下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Riding On High Hopes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寄予厚望</b></blockquote></p><p> To understand the Apple Car, we must first understand the EV space. EV companies are clearly enjoying a moment in the sun. The EV bull market has been fueled in no small part by the bubbly analyst forecasts and research notes coming out of Wall Street with increasing regularity in recent years. This bullishness has already seeped into analyst coverage of the Apple Car, especially that of Bernstein’s IT Hardware and Electric Vehicles team. In fact, it was Bernstein’s EV analysts who really sparked the latest revival of interest in Apple’s EV ambitions. In February, they highlighted Apple’s potential development partners, name-checking Volkswagen AG (OTCPK:VWAGY) in particular. Their August research update fanned the market flame further, laying out projections of exponential growth. According to Bernstein, Apple Car sales can reach 1.5 million vehicles per year, with annual revenue to the tune of $75 billion, in under a decade.</p><p><blockquote>要了解苹果汽车，我们首先必须了解电动汽车领域。电动汽车公司显然正在享受阳光下的时刻。近年来，华尔街越来越频繁地发布泡沫丰富的分析师预测和研究报告在很大程度上推动了电动汽车牛市。这种乐观情绪已经渗透到分析师对苹果汽车的报道中，尤其是伯恩斯坦的 IT 硬件和电动汽车团队。事实上，真正引发人们对苹果电动汽车雄心兴趣的是伯恩斯坦的电动汽车分析师。今年 2 月，他们重点介绍了苹果的潜在发展合作伙伴，尤其是正在核实名称的大众汽车公司（OTCPK:VWAGY）。他们8月份的研究更新进一步助长了市场火焰，预测了指数级增长。据 Bernstein 称，在不到十年的时间里，苹果汽车销量每年可达到 150 万辆，年收入可达 750 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, financial forecasts about the Apple Car mean little if there is no Apple Car. Apple’s decision to play its cards close to the vest has only served to fuel wild speculation. On Nov. 18th, Bloomberg offered a welcome dose of new information. According to Bloomberg, Apple has settled on both a strategy and a timeline for the Apple Car:</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果没有苹果汽车，关于苹果汽车的财务预测就没有什么意义。苹果决定在背心附近出牌，这只会助长疯狂的猜测。11月18日，彭博提供了一些受欢迎的新信息。据彭博社报道，苹果已经确定了苹果汽车的战略和时间表：</blockquote></p><p> For the past several years, Apple’s car team had explored two simultaneous paths: creating a model with limited self-driving capabilities focused on steering and acceleration––similar to many current cars––or a version with full self-driving ability that doesn’t require human intervention. Under the effort’s new leader––Apple Watch software executive Kevin Lynch––engineers are now concentrating on the second option. Lynch is pushing for a car with a full self-driving system in the first version, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private...Apple is internally targeting a launch of its self-driving car in four years, faster than the five- to seven-year timeline that some engineers had been planning for earlier this year. But the timing is fluid, and hitting that 2025 target is dependent on the company’s ability to complete the self-driving system -- an ambitious task on that schedule. If Apple is unable to reach its goal, it could either delay a release or initially sell a car with lesser technology. Unsurprisingly, this Bloomberg revelation has sparked a flurry of analyst commentary. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley (MS) has been especially visible in recent days discussing the Apple Car in general, and its planned autonomous driving capabilities in particular. Remarkably, Jonas’ forecast is even more bullish than Bernstein’s,projecting 1.8 million vehicle sales in 2030(all of which he expects to be fully autonomous).</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几年里，苹果的汽车团队同时探索了两条道路：打造一款自动驾驶能力有限的车型，重点是转向和加速--类似于目前的许多汽车--或者打造一款无需人工干预的全自动驾驶车型。在这项工作的新领导者--苹果观察软件公司高管凯文-林奇（Kevin Lynch）的领导下，工程师们现在正集中精力研究第二个方案。知情人士表示，林奇正在推动在第一个版本中推出一款配备全自动驾驶系统的汽车，但由于讨论是私下进行的，他们要求匿名……苹果内部的目标是在四年内推出自动驾驶汽车，比一些工程师今年早些时候计划的五到七年的时间表更快。但时间是不稳定的，能否实现 2025 年的目标取决于公司完成自动驾驶系统的能力--这是该时间表上一项雄心勃勃的任务。如果苹果无法实现其目标，它可以推迟发布或最初销售技术较差的汽车。不出所料，彭博社的这一披露引发了一系列分析师评论。摩根士丹利 (MS) 的 Adam Jonas 最近几天特别引人注目，他讨论了苹果汽车的总体情况，特别是其计划中的自动驾驶功能。值得注意的是，乔纳斯的预测比伯恩斯坦的预测还要乐观，他预计到 2030 年汽车销量将达到 180 万辆（他预计所有汽车都将完全自动驾驶）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Economic Reality Check</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济现实检验</b></blockquote></p><p> If Apple is genuinely serious about making the Apple Car a reality at long last, I see little risk of it outright failing. Bernstein made this point quite clearly in August:</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果真的认真考虑最终让苹果汽车成为现实，我认为它彻底失败的风险很小。伯恩斯坦在八月份非常清楚地表明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Given its revenue base, few addressable markets are sizeable enough to impact Apple’s financials, but the auto sector offers a uniquely large, addressable consumer market...A successful EV launch from Apple would add a formidable, well-capitalized competitor to the automotive industry. Apple clearly has the financial resources, brand power, and know-how to carve out a healthy piece of the EV pie for itself if that is what it wants to do. But confidence in Apple’s ability to make a successful EV play is not what really matters, at least from an investment standpoint. The real question is why Apple would even want to do it in the first place.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于苹果的收入基础，很少有市场规模足以影响其财务状况，但汽车行业提供了一个独特的庞大、可定位的消费市场.....苹果成功推出电动汽车将为汽车行业增加一个强大的、资本雄厚的竞争对手。如果苹果想要的话，它显然拥有财力、品牌影响力和专业知识，可以为自己在电动汽车蛋糕中分得一块健康的份额。但至少从投资的角度来看，对苹果成功开展电动汽车业务的能力的信心并不是真正重要的。真正的问题是，为什么苹果一开始就想这么做。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s core (pardon the pun) value proposition is its consumer tech and digital services empire. This business has become a veritable cash-printing machine. Even after spending a monumental $85.5 billion on stock buybacks in 2021 thus far, Apple still has $62.6 billion in cash on hand. Thatcash pile is the product of a business with incredibly high margins operating in an industry over which Apple can exert considerable market power.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的核心（请原谅双关语）价值主张是其消费技术和数字服务帝国。这项业务已经成为名副其实的印钞机。即使在 2021 年迄今为止花费了 855 亿美元进行股票回购后，苹果手头仍有 626 亿美元现金。Thatcash pile 是一家利润率高得令人难以置信的企业的产物，该行业苹果可以对其施加相当大的市场力量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dc54f5014c60576245a28b68c559d8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Venturing into the automotive industry will force Apple to face an entirely different kind of beast, economically speaking. Apple currently boasts gross and net profit margins of 46.6% and 23.7%. Among global automakers, meanwhile, the industry average gross margin is 27.9%, while net margin is a wafer-thin 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>从经济角度来说，进军汽车行业将迫使苹果面对一种完全不同的野兽。苹果目前的毛利率和净利润率分别为46.6%和23.7%。与此同时，在全球汽车制造商中，行业平均毛利率为 27.9%，而净利润率仅为 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e069c551673c4a5d3d5c960aaa5bc447\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CSIMarket.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CSIMarket.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple’s foray into cars would almost certainly mean more capital investment and thinner margins overall, with the mix set to get worse the larger its automotive division becomes relative to its wider business. That hardly sounds like a recipe for value creation.</p><p><blockquote>苹果进军汽车领域几乎肯定意味着更多的资本投资和更薄的整体利润率，随着其汽车部门相对于更广泛的业务规模越大，这种情况将会变得更糟。这听起来不像是创造价值的秘诀。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor’s Eye View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者视角</b></blockquote></p><p> Given the economic realities prevailing in the automotive sector, it is difficult to understand why Apple would want to be involved in it at all. While there may be something to the argument that autonomous vehicles can fundamentally transform the economics of the automotive industry, it is far from clear whether self-driving cars and robotaxis will improve margins substantially. Indeed, there is agrowing body of research calling this belief into question.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于汽车行业普遍存在的经济现实，很难理解为什么苹果想要参与其中。虽然自动驾驶汽车可以从根本上改变汽车行业的经济，但自动驾驶汽车和机器人出租车是否会大幅提高利润率还远未可知。事实上，越来越多的研究对这种信念提出了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it is the bull market in EV stocks that has enticed Apple back to the table. After all, investor excitement has reached such a fever pitch that even pre-revenue EV startups can now claim valuations rivalling those of established automakers netting billions of dollars in profit annually. Right now, Ford Motor Co. (F) and Lucid (LCID) have virtually the same market capitalization, despite Ford having posted $1.8 billion in net income for Q3 2021 compared to Lucid’s $7 million net loss. Perhaps Apple perceives the Apple Car as an opportunity for an upward revaluation of its enterprise even if it ultimately compresses the company’s overall profit margins and cash generation potential.</p><p><blockquote>也许是电动汽车股票的牛市吸引了苹果重返谈判桌。毕竟，投资者的兴奋已经达到了如此高的程度，以至于即使是营收前的电动汽车初创公司现在也可以声称其估值可与每年净利润数十亿美元的老牌汽车制造商相媲美。目前，福特汽车公司（F）和 Lucid（LCID）的市值几乎相同，尽管福特公布的 2021 年第三季度净利润为 18 亿美元，而 Lucid 的净亏损为 700 万美元。也许苹果将苹果汽车视为对其企业进行向上重估的机会，即使它最终会压缩公司的整体利润率和现金创造潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I see little about the automotive sector – EV or otherwise – that would make it a natural fit for Apple. While I suspect development of the Apple Car over the next few years will act as a positive catalyst for Apple’s stock, it will end up being more of a liability than an asset.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我几乎看不到汽车行业——无论是电动汽车还是其他汽车——这将使其自然适合苹果。虽然我怀疑苹果汽车在未来几年的开发将对苹果的股票起到积极的催化剂作用，但它最终将更多的是一种负债，而不是一种资产。</blockquote></p><p> In my assessment, investors buying Apple on the basis of its EV future would be wise to think again.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，根据电动汽车未来购买苹果的投资者应该三思而后行。</blockquote></p><p> Trade carefully!</p><p><blockquote>交易谨慎!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471915-apple-taking-bite-out-of-the-ev-market\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471915-apple-taking-bite-out-of-the-ev-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197882653","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has spent years working on its own electric vehicle and autonomous driving system.\nAfter many fits and starts, the project appears to be back on track; the Apple Car is now expected to debut in 2025.\nAnalysts and investors have responded positively toward Apple's EV ambitions thus far; perhaps unsurprising given the EV bullish frenzy.\nApple may benefit from mounting excitement as the project moves ahead, but the long-term economic case for the Apple Car is suspect.\nIf Apple commits to building a significant EV footprint, it will likely result in lower margins and higher costs for the company in the long run.\n\nNNehring/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIt is no secret that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has long toyed with the idea of launching its own electric vehicle (“EV”) line. The company has titillated analysts and investors for years with the prospect, yet time and again it ended up coming to nothing. So, when a fresh round of rumors began to swirl this fall, I initially viewed them with a healthy degree of skepticism.\nYet the rumors proved remarkably persistent, gaining steam thanks to rising interest among Wall Street analysts. The rumors became far more concrete earlier this month in light of Bloomberg’s reporting on Apple’s internal plans, which call for the Apple Car to launch in 2025.\nIt is easy to understand why investors and analysts would be excited about an Apple EV. On paper, the idea of the Apple Car is unquestionably exciting. In reality, however, the economics of the Apple Car may leave much to be desired.\nLet’s discuss.\nRiding On High Hopes\nTo understand the Apple Car, we must first understand the EV space. EV companies are clearly enjoying a moment in the sun. The EV bull market has been fueled in no small part by the bubbly analyst forecasts and research notes coming out of Wall Street with increasing regularity in recent years. This bullishness has already seeped into analyst coverage of the Apple Car, especially that of Bernstein’s IT Hardware and Electric Vehicles team. In fact, it was Bernstein’s EV analysts who really sparked the latest revival of interest in Apple’s EV ambitions. In February, they highlighted Apple’s potential development partners, name-checking Volkswagen AG (OTCPK:VWAGY) in particular. Their August research update fanned the market flame further, laying out projections of exponential growth. According to Bernstein, Apple Car sales can reach 1.5 million vehicles per year, with annual revenue to the tune of $75 billion, in under a decade.\nOf course, financial forecasts about the Apple Car mean little if there is no Apple Car. Apple’s decision to play its cards close to the vest has only served to fuel wild speculation. On Nov. 18th, Bloomberg offered a welcome dose of new information. According to Bloomberg, Apple has settled on both a strategy and a timeline for the Apple Car:\n\n For the past several years, Apple’s car team had explored two simultaneous paths: creating a model with limited self-driving capabilities focused on steering and acceleration––similar to many current cars––or a version with full self-driving ability that doesn’t require human intervention. Under the effort’s new leader––Apple Watch software executive Kevin Lynch––engineers are now concentrating on the second option. Lynch is pushing for a car with a full self-driving system in the first version, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private...Apple is internally targeting a launch of its self-driving car in four years, faster than the five- to seven-year timeline that some engineers had been planning for earlier this year. But the timing is fluid, and hitting that 2025 target is dependent on the company’s ability to complete the self-driving system -- an ambitious task on that schedule. If Apple is unable to reach its goal, it could either delay a release or initially sell a car with lesser technology.\n\nUnsurprisingly, this Bloomberg revelation has sparked a flurry of analyst commentary. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley (MS) has been especially visible in recent days discussing the Apple Car in general, and its planned autonomous driving capabilities in particular. Remarkably, Jonas’ forecast is even more bullish than Bernstein’s,projecting 1.8 million vehicle sales in 2030(all of which he expects to be fully autonomous).\nEconomic Reality Check\nIf Apple is genuinely serious about making the Apple Car a reality at long last, I see little risk of it outright failing. Bernstein made this point quite clearly in August:\n\n Given its revenue base, few addressable markets are sizeable enough to impact Apple’s financials, but the auto sector offers a uniquely large, addressable consumer market...A successful EV launch from Apple would add a formidable, well-capitalized competitor to the automotive industry.\n\nApple clearly has the financial resources, brand power, and know-how to carve out a healthy piece of the EV pie for itself if that is what it wants to do. But confidence in Apple’s ability to make a successful EV play is not what really matters, at least from an investment standpoint. The real question is why Apple would even want to do it in the first place.\nApple’s core (pardon the pun) value proposition is its consumer tech and digital services empire. This business has become a veritable cash-printing machine. Even after spending a monumental $85.5 billion on stock buybacks in 2021 thus far, Apple still has $62.6 billion in cash on hand. Thatcash pile is the product of a business with incredibly high margins operating in an industry over which Apple can exert considerable market power.\nSource: Statista\nVenturing into the automotive industry will force Apple to face an entirely different kind of beast, economically speaking. Apple currently boasts gross and net profit margins of 46.6% and 23.7%. Among global automakers, meanwhile, the industry average gross margin is 27.9%, while net margin is a wafer-thin 2.6%.\nSource: CSIMarket.com\nApple’s foray into cars would almost certainly mean more capital investment and thinner margins overall, with the mix set to get worse the larger its automotive division becomes relative to its wider business. That hardly sounds like a recipe for value creation.\nInvestor’s Eye View\nGiven the economic realities prevailing in the automotive sector, it is difficult to understand why Apple would want to be involved in it at all. While there may be something to the argument that autonomous vehicles can fundamentally transform the economics of the automotive industry, it is far from clear whether self-driving cars and robotaxis will improve margins substantially. Indeed, there is agrowing body of research calling this belief into question.\nPerhaps it is the bull market in EV stocks that has enticed Apple back to the table. After all, investor excitement has reached such a fever pitch that even pre-revenue EV startups can now claim valuations rivalling those of established automakers netting billions of dollars in profit annually. Right now, Ford Motor Co. (F) and Lucid (LCID) have virtually the same market capitalization, despite Ford having posted $1.8 billion in net income for Q3 2021 compared to Lucid’s $7 million net loss. Perhaps Apple perceives the Apple Car as an opportunity for an upward revaluation of its enterprise even if it ultimately compresses the company’s overall profit margins and cash generation potential.\nUltimately, I see little about the automotive sector – EV or otherwise – that would make it a natural fit for Apple. While I suspect development of the Apple Car over the next few years will act as a positive catalyst for Apple’s stock, it will end up being more of a liability than an asset.\nIn my assessment, investors buying Apple on the basis of its EV future would be wise to think again.\nTrade carefully!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1079,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/877554938"}
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