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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":877343954,"tweetId":"877343954","gmtCreate":1637891691280,"gmtModify":1637891706697,"author":{"id":3572761324363640,"idStr":"3572761324363640","authorId":3572761324363640,"authorIdStr":"3572761324363640","name":"SamuelNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/758b132d63959927e156935f0c64d8e9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":17,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>like</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>like</body></html>","text":"like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877343954","repostId":1126230539,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126230539","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637891394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126230539?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-26 09:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Can Rise 7% in the Next Year. Earnings Will Have to Keep Surging.<blockquote>明年标普500可能会上涨7%。盈利将不得不继续飙升。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126230539","media":"Barrons","summary":"Strategists at Jefferies say the S&P 500 can gain 7% over the next year or so. The main element behi","content":"Strategists at Jefferies say the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;can gain 7% over the next year or so. The main element behind that forecast is—yet again—higher-than-expected earnings.<blockquote>杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 策略师表示，标普500在未来一年左右可能会上涨 7%。这一预测背后的主要因素再次是高于预期的盈利。</blockquote> Jefferies strategists published a year-end 2022 target of 5,000 for the broad market benchmark. That represents a roughly 7% gain from the index’s current level—a view underpinned by the firm’s expectation that aggregate earnings per share for the companies in the S&amp;P 500 will come in at $233 in 2022. The baseline view among analysts tracked by FactSet is that the figure will be $220.<blockquote>杰富瑞策略师公布了大盘基准 2022 年底目标为 5,000 点。这比该指数目前的水平上涨了约 7%--该公司预计 2022 年标普500公司的每股总收益将达到 233 美元。FactSet 追踪的分析师的基线观点是，这一数字将是 220 美元。</blockquote> That outperformance, if it happens, would mark a continuation of a trend that has benefited investors recently. In the third quarter, S&amp;P 500 EPS was about 10% higher than analysts estimated. While that was less than the beats of above 20% seen in prior quarters, it shows that Wall Street continues to underestimate companies’ ability to generate profits. Analysts are known for making conservative estimates, especially when there is a surge in demand like the one seen in the post-lockdown era.<blockquote>如果这种优异的表现发生，将标志着最近有利于投资者的趋势的延续。第三季度，标普500每股收益比分析师预期高出约10%。虽然这低于前几个季度超过 20% 的增长率，但这表明华尔街仍然低估了公司的盈利能力。众所周知，分析师以做出保守的估计而闻名，尤其是当需求激增时，就像封锁后时代那样。</blockquote> One element behind Jefferies’ bullish profit forecast is that the economy is still growing at a relatively rapid pace. Economists are looking for U.S. gross domestic product to grow more than 5% in 2022, according to FactSet. While that would be slower than the growth seen this year, it would still be better than the sub-3% expansions seen in recent years before the pandemic.<blockquote>杰富瑞看涨利润预测背后的一个因素是，经济仍在以相对较快的速度增长。FactSet 的数据显示，经济学家预计 2022 年美国国内生产总值将增长 5% 以上。虽然这将低于今年的增长，但仍好于疫情爆发前近年来低于 3% 的增长。</blockquote> Jeffreries’ data show that GDP growth of 5%, historically, correlates to earnings growth in the mid single digits to double digits in percentage terms. The math checks out: It would take 12% growth to bring aggregate S&amp;P 500 EPS for 2022 to the $233 Jefferies has forecast.<blockquote>杰富瑞的数据显示，从历史上看，5% 的 GDP 增长率与收入增长的百分比在个位数到两位数之间。计算结果表明：标普500 2022 年每股收益总额需要 12% 的增长才能达到 Jefferies 预测的 233 美元。</blockquote> The aggregate EPS of $233 for 2022 that the firm anticipates also wouldn’t necessarily shock the analyst community. It would be about 6% higher than the aggregate analyst estimate, and according to Credit Suisse data going back to 2016, companies often beat earnings expectations by about 6%.<blockquote>该公司预计 2022 年 233 美元的总每股收益也未必会让分析师界感到震惊。这将比分析师的总体预期高出约 6%，根据瑞士信贷 2016 年的数据，公司的盈利通常超出预期约 6%。</blockquote> That is all good for stocks, but one risk to Jefferies’ call on the S&amp;P 500 is that valuations seem a little high. The firm’s forecast implies that the S&amp;P 500’s aggregate 2022 earnings multiple—the value of all the stocks in the index relative to total per-share profits—should be 21.5 times. That is where the figure is now, but many see valuations coming down because bond yields could easily head higher.<blockquote>这对股市来说都是好事，但杰富瑞在标普500的看涨期权面临的一个风险是估值似乎有点高。该公司的预测意味着，标普500 2022 年的总市盈率--指数中所有股票的价值相对于每股总收益--应为 21.5 倍。这就是目前的数字，但许多人认为估值正在下降，因为债券收益率很容易走高。</blockquote> The 10-year Treasury yield, at 1.68%, is still negative in real terms. It is well below long-term inflation expectations, a rarity historically. Morgan Stanley strategists have forecast a forward earnings multiple of 18, given the risk of higher bond yields. That would make a 7% gain on the S&amp;P 500 very difficult unless earnings rose spectacularly.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率为1.68%，实际价值仍为负。这远远低于长期通胀预期，这在历史上是罕见的。考虑到债券收益率上升的风险，摩根士丹利策略师预测远期市盈率为 18。除非盈利大幅增长，否则标普500将很难实现 7% 的上涨。</blockquote> But Jefferies counters that argument, at least for the near term. “As long as the US Breakeven inflation curve remains inverted [negative real yield], equities will have some room for multiples to expand,” wrote Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies.&nbsp;The idea that is if real returns on Treasury debt are negative, investors will still have ample reason to put money into stocks.<blockquote>但杰富瑞反驳了这一论点，至少在短期内是这样。“杰富瑞（Jefferies）全球股票策略师肖恩-达比（Sean Darby）写道：”只要美国盈亏平衡通胀曲线保持倒挂（实际收益率为负），股市就会有一定的倍数扩大空间。其理念是，如果国债的实际回报率为负，投资者仍有充分的理由将资金投入股票。</blockquote> Ultimately, the index can keep rising from here. It’s just that solid gains are highly dependent on strong profit results.<blockquote>最终，指数可以从这里继续上涨。只是稳健的收益在很大程度上取决于强劲的利润业绩。</blockquote> Corrections &amp; Amplifications: Growth of 12% in aggregate 2022 earnings for companies in the S&amp;P 500 would lift total EPS for the index to $233. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said 12% growth would boost profits for 2021 to $208.<blockquote>校正和放大：标普500公司 2022 年总收益增长 12%，将使该指数的总每股收益达到 233 美元。本文早期版本错误地表示，12% 的增长将使 2021 年利润提高到 208 美元。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Can Rise 7% in the Next Year. Earnings Will Have to Keep Surging.<blockquote>明年标普500可能会上涨7%。盈利将不得不继续飙升。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Can Rise 7% in the Next Year. Earnings Will Have to Keep Surging.<blockquote>明年标普500可能会上涨7%。盈利将不得不继续飙升。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-11-26 09:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStrategists at Jefferies say the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;can gain 7% over the next year or so. The main element behind that forecast is—yet again—higher-than-expected earnings.<blockquote>杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 策略师表示，标普500在未来一年左右可能会上涨 7%。这一预测背后的主要因素再次是高于预期的盈利。</blockquote> Jefferies strategists published a year-end 2022 target of 5,000 for the broad market benchmark. That represents a roughly 7% gain from the index’s current level—a view underpinned by the firm’s expectation that aggregate earnings per share for the companies in the S&amp;P 500 will come in at $233 in 2022. The baseline view among analysts tracked by FactSet is that the figure will be $220.<blockquote>杰富瑞策略师公布了大盘基准 2022 年底目标为 5,000 点。这比该指数目前的水平上涨了约 7%--该公司预计 2022 年标普500公司的每股总收益将达到 233 美元。FactSet 追踪的分析师的基线观点是，这一数字将是 220 美元。</blockquote> That outperformance, if it happens, would mark a continuation of a trend that has benefited investors recently. In the third quarter, S&amp;P 500 EPS was about 10% higher than analysts estimated. While that was less than the beats of above 20% seen in prior quarters, it shows that Wall Street continues to underestimate companies’ ability to generate profits. Analysts are known for making conservative estimates, especially when there is a surge in demand like the one seen in the post-lockdown era.<blockquote>如果这种优异的表现发生，将标志着最近有利于投资者的趋势的延续。第三季度，标普500每股收益比分析师预期高出约10%。虽然这低于前几个季度超过 20% 的增长率，但这表明华尔街仍然低估了公司的盈利能力。众所周知，分析师以做出保守的估计而闻名，尤其是当需求激增时，就像封锁后时代那样。</blockquote> One element behind Jefferies’ bullish profit forecast is that the economy is still growing at a relatively rapid pace. Economists are looking for U.S. gross domestic product to grow more than 5% in 2022, according to FactSet. While that would be slower than the growth seen this year, it would still be better than the sub-3% expansions seen in recent years before the pandemic.<blockquote>杰富瑞看涨利润预测背后的一个因素是，经济仍在以相对较快的速度增长。FactSet 的数据显示，经济学家预计 2022 年美国国内生产总值将增长 5% 以上。虽然这将低于今年的增长，但仍好于疫情爆发前近年来低于 3% 的增长。</blockquote> Jeffreries’ data show that GDP growth of 5%, historically, correlates to earnings growth in the mid single digits to double digits in percentage terms. The math checks out: It would take 12% growth to bring aggregate S&amp;P 500 EPS for 2022 to the $233 Jefferies has forecast.<blockquote>杰富瑞的数据显示，从历史上看，5% 的 GDP 增长率与收入增长的百分比在个位数到两位数之间。计算结果表明：标普500 2022 年每股收益总额需要 12% 的增长才能达到 Jefferies 预测的 233 美元。</blockquote> The aggregate EPS of $233 for 2022 that the firm anticipates also wouldn’t necessarily shock the analyst community. It would be about 6% higher than the aggregate analyst estimate, and according to Credit Suisse data going back to 2016, companies often beat earnings expectations by about 6%.<blockquote>该公司预计 2022 年 233 美元的总每股收益也未必会让分析师界感到震惊。这将比分析师的总体预期高出约 6%，根据瑞士信贷 2016 年的数据，公司的盈利通常超出预期约 6%。</blockquote> That is all good for stocks, but one risk to Jefferies’ call on the S&amp;P 500 is that valuations seem a little high. The firm’s forecast implies that the S&amp;P 500’s aggregate 2022 earnings multiple—the value of all the stocks in the index relative to total per-share profits—should be 21.5 times. That is where the figure is now, but many see valuations coming down because bond yields could easily head higher.<blockquote>这对股市来说都是好事，但杰富瑞在标普500的看涨期权面临的一个风险是估值似乎有点高。该公司的预测意味着，标普500 2022 年的总市盈率--指数中所有股票的价值相对于每股总收益--应为 21.5 倍。这就是目前的数字，但许多人认为估值正在下降，因为债券收益率很容易走高。</blockquote> The 10-year Treasury yield, at 1.68%, is still negative in real terms. It is well below long-term inflation expectations, a rarity historically. Morgan Stanley strategists have forecast a forward earnings multiple of 18, given the risk of higher bond yields. That would make a 7% gain on the S&amp;P 500 very difficult unless earnings rose spectacularly.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率为1.68%，实际价值仍为负。这远远低于长期通胀预期，这在历史上是罕见的。考虑到债券收益率上升的风险，摩根士丹利策略师预测远期市盈率为 18。除非盈利大幅增长，否则标普500将很难实现 7% 的上涨。</blockquote> But Jefferies counters that argument, at least for the near term. “As long as the US Breakeven inflation curve remains inverted [negative real yield], equities will have some room for multiples to expand,” wrote Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies.&nbsp;The idea that is if real returns on Treasury debt are negative, investors will still have ample reason to put money into stocks.<blockquote>但杰富瑞反驳了这一论点，至少在短期内是这样。“杰富瑞（Jefferies）全球股票策略师肖恩-达比（Sean Darby）写道：”只要美国盈亏平衡通胀曲线保持倒挂（实际收益率为负），股市就会有一定的倍数扩大空间。其理念是，如果国债的实际回报率为负，投资者仍有充分的理由将资金投入股票。</blockquote> Ultimately, the index can keep rising from here. It’s just that solid gains are highly dependent on strong profit results.<blockquote>最终，指数可以从这里继续上涨。只是稳健的收益在很大程度上取决于强劲的利润业绩。</blockquote> Corrections &amp; Amplifications: Growth of 12% in aggregate 2022 earnings for companies in the S&amp;P 500 would lift total EPS for the index to $233. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said 12% growth would boost profits for 2021 to $208.<blockquote>校正和放大：标普500公司 2022 年总收益增长 12%，将使该指数的总每股收益达到 233 美元。本文早期版本错误地表示，12% 的增长将使 2021 年利润提高到 208 美元。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-s-p-500-outlook-gains-forecast-51637706794?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-s-p-500-outlook-gains-forecast-51637706794?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126230539","content_text":"Strategists at Jefferies say the S&P 500 can gain 7% over the next year or so. The main element behind that forecast is—yet again—higher-than-expected earnings.\nJefferies strategists published a year-end 2022 target of 5,000 for the broad market benchmark. That represents a roughly 7% gain from the index’s current level—a view underpinned by the firm’s expectation that aggregate earnings per share for the companies in the S&P 500 will come in at $233 in 2022. The baseline view among analysts tracked by FactSet is that the figure will be $220.\nThat outperformance, if it happens, would mark a continuation of a trend that has benefited investors recently. In the third quarter, S&P 500 EPS was about 10% higher than analysts estimated. While that was less than the beats of above 20% seen in prior quarters, it shows that Wall Street continues to underestimate companies’ ability to generate profits. Analysts are known for making conservative estimates, especially when there is a surge in demand like the one seen in the post-lockdown era.\nOne element behind Jefferies’ bullish profit forecast is that the economy is still growing at a relatively rapid pace. Economists are looking for U.S. gross domestic product to grow more than 5% in 2022, according to FactSet. While that would be slower than the growth seen this year, it would still be better than the sub-3% expansions seen in recent years before the pandemic.\nJeffreries’ data show that GDP growth of 5%, historically, correlates to earnings growth in the mid single digits to double digits in percentage terms. The math checks out: It would take 12% growth to bring aggregate S&P 500 EPS for 2022 to the $233 Jefferies has forecast.\nThe aggregate EPS of $233 for 2022 that the firm anticipates also wouldn’t necessarily shock the analyst community. It would be about 6% higher than the aggregate analyst estimate, and according to Credit Suisse data going back to 2016, companies often beat earnings expectations by about 6%.\nThat is all good for stocks, but one risk to Jefferies’ call on the S&P 500 is that valuations seem a little high. The firm’s forecast implies that the S&P 500’s aggregate 2022 earnings multiple—the value of all the stocks in the index relative to total per-share profits—should be 21.5 times. That is where the figure is now, but many see valuations coming down because bond yields could easily head higher.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield, at 1.68%, is still negative in real terms. It is well below long-term inflation expectations, a rarity historically. Morgan Stanley strategists have forecast a forward earnings multiple of 18, given the risk of higher bond yields. That would make a 7% gain on the S&P 500 very difficult unless earnings rose spectacularly.\nBut Jefferies counters that argument, at least for the near term. “As long as the US Breakeven inflation curve remains inverted [negative real yield], equities will have some room for multiples to expand,” wrote Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies. The idea that is if real returns on Treasury debt are negative, investors will still have ample reason to put money into stocks.\nUltimately, the index can keep rising from here. It’s just that solid gains are highly dependent on strong profit results.\nCorrections & Amplifications: Growth of 12% in aggregate 2022 earnings for companies in the S&P 500 would lift total EPS for the index to $233. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said 12% growth would boost profits for 2021 to $208.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/877343954"}