xuannie
2021-11-23
interest rate hike affects the stock market, no.?
How one interest-rate hike by a small African nation could derail Powell’s Fed policy plans and sink stocks<blockquote>一个非洲小国的一次加息如何可能破坏鲍威尔的美联储政策计划并导致股市下跌</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":875876401,"tweetId":"875876401","gmtCreate":1637636819496,"gmtModify":1637636875995,"author":{"id":3577853640817618,"idStr":"3577853640817618","authorId":3577853640817618,"authorIdStr":"3577853640817618","name":"xuannie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/094bb4526c85c5b6ade1fef7274ae82b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":16,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>interest rate hike affects the stock market, no.? </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>interest rate hike affects the stock market, no.? </p></body></html>","text":"interest rate hike affects the stock market, no.?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875876401","repostId":1150397775,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150397775","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637632895,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150397775?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 10:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How one interest-rate hike by a small African nation could derail Powell’s Fed policy plans and sink stocks<blockquote>一个非洲小国的一次加息如何可能破坏鲍威尔的美联储政策计划并导致股市下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150397775","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors need to stop obsessing about the Fed taper and pay attention to the dozens of central bank","content":"<p>Investors need to stop obsessing about the Fed taper and pay attention to the dozens of central banks that have hiked rates so far this year</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要停止对美联储taper的痴迷，并关注今年迄今已加息的数十家央行</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f544ba36d7e4b99b76e8de8c1788fb0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, iStockphoto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch照片插图/Getty Images、iStockphoto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve is beginning the first phase of its very gentle, very conditional, very cautious path to stimulus removal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, just nominated for a second term at the helm of the U.S. central bank, is intent on pushing back against any speculation about thinking about talking about rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在开始非常温和、非常有条件、非常谨慎地取消刺激措施的第一阶段。刚刚被提名连任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）打算反击任何关于考虑谈论加息的猜测。</blockquote></p><p> But around the rest of the world, something quite different is going on in the halls of central monetary authorities from Latin America to Eastern Europe, Africa, and lately even some developed-market countries.</p><p><blockquote>但在世界其他地区，从拉丁美洲到东欧、非洲，甚至最近一些发达市场国家，中央货币当局的大厅里正在发生完全不同的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Back in January 2021 I wrote a half-joking, half-serious tweet, remarking that the 300-basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Mozambique was a “Sign of things to come…”</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年1月，我就写了一条半开玩笑、半严肃的推文，称莫桑比克央行加息300个基点是“即将发生的事情的迹象……”</blockquote></p><p> It was Mozambique’s first interest-rate hike in four years, and came in response to what it described at the time as a “substantial upward revision of its outlook for inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>这是莫桑比克四年来首次加息，是为了回应当时所说的“通胀前景大幅上调”。</blockquote></p><p> Fast-forward 10 months. Without really planning it, I decided to add to that tweet — making a live thread tracking the global policy pivot from rate cuts to rate hikes. Since then I’ve noted rate increases both large and small by the central banks of Azerbaijan, Zambia, Brazil, Russia, Iceland, Angola, Sri Lanka, South Korea, Norway, and New Zealand, to name a few. In total, I have counted 94 interest rate hikes across 36 central banks so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>快进10个月。在没有真正计划的情况下，我决定在那条推文中添加内容——制作一个跟踪全球政策从降息到加息的实时帖子。从那以后，我注意到阿塞拜疆、赞比亚、巴西、俄罗斯、冰岛、安哥拉、斯里兰卡、韩国、挪威和新西兰等国央行大大小小地加息。今年迄今为止，我总共统计了36家央行94次加息。</blockquote></p><p> Now obviously if this was just one rate hike by one central bank, or even a handful, it might not even warrant a mention. But when you start talking about these kinds of numbers, it’s hard not to notice a pattern. In that respect, the chart below does a good job of mapping that pattern precisely:</p><p><blockquote>显然，如果这只是一家央行的一次加息，甚至是几家央行的一次加息，甚至可能不值得一提。但当你开始谈论这类数字时，很难不注意到一种模式。在这方面，下图很好地精确地映射了这种模式：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29b8159041554381447c992520819a45\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It shows the proportion of central banks in rate-hike mode (defined as the last interest rate move being an increase). After dropping to zero early in 2020, fully two-thirds of emerging market central banks now have pivoted into rate-hike mode.</p><p><blockquote>它显示了处于加息模式（定义为最后一次利率变动为加息）的央行比例。在2020年初降至零后，整整三分之二的新兴市场央行现在已经转向加息模式。</blockquote></p><p> There are a few common themes as to why countries around the world are raising rates, including inflation, currency and financial stability. Let’s take a closer look:</p><p><blockquote>关于世界各国为何加息，有几个共同的主题，包括通胀、货币和金融稳定，我们来仔细看看：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation:</b> We quickly went from few people talking about inflation at the start of the year to inflation being perhaps the hot macro topic of the past few months.</p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀：</b>我们很快就从年初很少有人谈论通胀变成了过去几个月通胀可能是热门的宏观话题。</blockquote></p><p> Base effects (easier to record a higher pace of growth when comparing to a low base), bounce backs (reopening + stimulus = strong demand), and backlogs (supply-chain hell) combined to drive a sharp shift in both inflation and inflation expectations.</p><p><blockquote>基数效应（与低基数相比，更容易记录更高的增长速度）、反弹（重新开放+刺激=强劲需求）和积压（供应链地狱）共同推动了通胀和通胀预期的急剧转变。</blockquote></p><p> Emerging economies are particularly sensitive to inflation. In recent times, as a group, they’ve tended to see an annual rate of inflation twice that which you would see in developed economies. Moreover, you only need to go back just over 20 years to see hyperinflation in emerging economies (as a group they saw peak inflation of 115% in 1993, and double-digit inflation all the way through to 2000).</p><p><blockquote>新兴经济体对通胀尤为敏感。最近，作为一个群体，他们的年通胀率往往是发达经济体的两倍。此外，你只需要回到20多年前就能看到新兴经济体的恶性通胀（作为一个群体，他们在1993年看到了115%的峰值通胀，一直到2000年都是两位数的通胀）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f12c26efb245d585640b77fb54875e5f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Think about your average emerging market central bank governor — many of them were probably junior economists 20 years ago. Their formative years were no doubt heavily influenced by runaway inflation. Little wonder then they are hot on the trigger to hike rates as inflation heats up.</p><p><blockquote>想想普通的新兴市场央行行长——他们中的许多人在20年前可能还是初级经济学家。毫无疑问，他们的成长岁月深受失控通货膨胀的影响。难怪随着通胀升温，他们急于加息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Currency:</b> Many central banks have also lifted rates in effort to prop their currencies up as the U.S. dollar strengthens. The line of reasoning here is two-fold: higher inflation (all else equal) means a fundamentally weaker currency, and higher interest rates appeal to carry traders looking to bank the higher yields: bringing flows and lifting demand for a country’s currency.</p><p><blockquote><b>货币：</b>随着美元走强，许多央行也提高了利率，以支撑本国货币。这里的推理有两个方面：更高的通胀（其他条件相同）意味着货币从根本上走弱，而更高的利率对希望存入更高收益率的套利交易者有吸引力：带来资金流动并提振对一国货币的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial stability:</b> This term is basically a euphemism for “try not to blow up bubbles.” In other words, if you keep rates too low for too long you risk igniting asset-price bubbles, which if they burst in a chaotic fashion can trigger financial instability. Case in point: the housing bubble of the mid-2000s, its subsequent bursting and the ensuing Great Financial Crisis.</p><p><blockquote><b>财务稳定性：</b>这个术语基本上是“尽量不要吹大泡沫”的委婉说法。换句话说，如果你长期将利率保持在过低水平，你就有可能点燃资产价格泡沫，如果泡沫以混乱的方式破裂，可能会引发金融不稳定。典型的例子是2000年代中期的房地产泡沫，随后的破裂和随之而来的大金融危机。</blockquote></p><p> On that note, we probably should pay more attention to this aspect, as developed-economy housing market valuations have already sailed past the pre-financial crisis highs.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，我们可能应该更加关注这方面，因为发达经济体的房地产市场估值已经超过了金融危机前的高点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4ea7b7b6c026d4abe60466d5bc8ac5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yes that’s right: Ultra-low borrowing costs have helped push housing market valuations in some countries well above pre-financial crisis levels. This is one reason why it’s said that monetary policy is a blunt tool — it roughly does the job when it comes to avoiding deeper economic recessions and depressions, but the price is often higher asset prices.</p><p><blockquote>是的，没错：超低的借贷成本帮助一些国家的房地产市场估值远高于金融危机前的水平。这就是为什么有人说货币政策是一种生硬工具的原因之一——在避免更深的经济衰退和萧条方面，它大致完成了工作，但代价往往是更高的资产价格。</blockquote></p><p> “Expect less of a tailwind for risk assets, upward pressure on borrowing costs, and likely more volatile markets going forward.” The global policy pivot to rate hikes (likely to be soon joined by Canada and the U.K.) means investors can expect incrementally less of a tailwind for risk assets, upward pressure on borrowing costs, and likely more volatile markets going forward.</p><p><blockquote>“预计风险资产的顺风会减少，借贷成本会面临上行压力，未来市场可能会更加波动。”全球政策转向加息（加拿大和英国可能很快也会加入）意味着投资者可以预期风险资产的顺风会逐渐减弱，借贷成本会面临上行压力，未来市场可能会更加波动。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, mapping out the previous paths in policy, the chart below shows how shifts from easing to tightening at best means a leveling-out or regime shift in the market; e.g. from a near vertical line to more chopping and ranging. At worst, if tight enough for long enough, this policy change can trigger an outright shift from bull market to bear market.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，下图描绘了之前的政策路径，显示了从宽松到紧缩的转变充其量意味着市场的平稳或制度转变；例如，从一条接近垂直线到更多的切割和范围。在最坏的情况下，如果足够长的时间足够紧张，这种政策变化可能会引发从牛市到熊市的彻底转变。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d54c8bc1e0bc437bcfc2ce03e8655e14\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> You might be thinking, what do all these random small, emerging-market central banks hiking interest rates have to do with the S&P500? You’ve probably heard the saying that when the Fed sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold, but in this sense, given the Fed is still likely to be dragging its feet on policy for some time, it’s almost more that the rest of the world catches a cold and U.S. equities sneeze.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会想，所有这些随机的小型新兴市场央行加息与标准普尔500有什么关系？你可能听说过这样一句话，当美联储打喷嚏时，世界其他地区就会感冒，但从这个意义上说，鉴于美联储仍有可能在一段时间内拖延政策，几乎更多的是世界其他地区感冒了，美国股市也会打喷嚏。</blockquote></p><p> You only need to go back to 2015-16 where much of the volatility in U.S. markets back then was driven or triggered by issues in China and emerging markets, or in the post-financial crisis period when the eurozone debt crisis was raging and weighing on global investor sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>你只需要回到2015-16年，当时美国市场的波动很大程度上是由中国和新兴市场的问题驱动或引发的，或者是后金融危机时期，欧元区债务危机肆虐并拖累全球投资者情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond regional crises — which can be precipitated by premature stimulus removal — the bigger issue is the common themes motivating monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>除了过早取消刺激措施可能引发的地区危机之外，更大的问题是激励货币政策的共同主题。</blockquote></p><p> While each central bank has its own set of circumstances, the common theme is a reaction to higher inflation, stronger growth and a desire to avoid overcooking markets. It’s the smaller/developing-country central banks that are most exposed to these global trends, and so we can look at them as bellwethers or leading indicators.</p><p><blockquote>虽然每个央行都有自己的一套情况，但共同的主题是对更高的通胀、更强劲的增长和避免市场过度烹饪的愿望的反应。小国/发展中国家的央行最容易受到这些全球趋势的影响，因此我们可以将它们视为领头羊或领先指标。</blockquote></p><p> The forces in motion that triggered a rate hike in Mozambique are the same forces that will ultimately drive the Fed to step away from stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>引发莫桑比克加息的力量与最终将促使美联储放弃刺激措施的力量相同。</blockquote></p><p> It may take time, but one thing I know to be true is that these things go in cycles. While it looks and feels like the Fed has your back forever in the markets right now, this won’t be always true. “Don’t fight the Fed” means swim with the tide, not against it, and the tides here are clearly turning.</p><p><blockquote>这可能需要时间，但有一件事我知道是真的，那就是这些事情是循环往复的。虽然现在看起来和感觉上美联储在市场上永远支持你，但这并不总是正确的。“不要与美联储对抗”意味着随波逐流，而不是逆潮流而动，这里的潮流显然正在转向。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How one interest-rate hike by a small African nation could derail Powell’s Fed policy plans and sink stocks<blockquote>一个非洲小国的一次加息如何可能破坏鲍威尔的美联储政策计划并导致股市下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow one interest-rate hike by a small African nation could derail Powell’s Fed policy plans and sink stocks<blockquote>一个非洲小国的一次加息如何可能破坏鲍威尔的美联储政策计划并导致股市下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-23 10:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors need to stop obsessing about the Fed taper and pay attention to the dozens of central banks that have hiked rates so far this year</p><p><blockquote>投资者需要停止对美联储taper的痴迷，并关注今年迄今已加息的数十家央行</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f544ba36d7e4b99b76e8de8c1788fb0\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, iStockphoto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch照片插图/Getty Images、iStockphoto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve is beginning the first phase of its very gentle, very conditional, very cautious path to stimulus removal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, just nominated for a second term at the helm of the U.S. central bank, is intent on pushing back against any speculation about thinking about talking about rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在开始非常温和、非常有条件、非常谨慎地取消刺激措施的第一阶段。刚刚被提名连任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）打算反击任何关于考虑谈论加息的猜测。</blockquote></p><p> But around the rest of the world, something quite different is going on in the halls of central monetary authorities from Latin America to Eastern Europe, Africa, and lately even some developed-market countries.</p><p><blockquote>但在世界其他地区，从拉丁美洲到东欧、非洲，甚至最近一些发达市场国家，中央货币当局的大厅里正在发生完全不同的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Back in January 2021 I wrote a half-joking, half-serious tweet, remarking that the 300-basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Mozambique was a “Sign of things to come…”</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年1月，我就写了一条半开玩笑、半严肃的推文，称莫桑比克央行加息300个基点是“即将发生的事情的迹象……”</blockquote></p><p> It was Mozambique’s first interest-rate hike in four years, and came in response to what it described at the time as a “substantial upward revision of its outlook for inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>这是莫桑比克四年来首次加息，是为了回应当时所说的“通胀前景大幅上调”。</blockquote></p><p> Fast-forward 10 months. Without really planning it, I decided to add to that tweet — making a live thread tracking the global policy pivot from rate cuts to rate hikes. Since then I’ve noted rate increases both large and small by the central banks of Azerbaijan, Zambia, Brazil, Russia, Iceland, Angola, Sri Lanka, South Korea, Norway, and New Zealand, to name a few. In total, I have counted 94 interest rate hikes across 36 central banks so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>快进10个月。在没有真正计划的情况下，我决定在那条推文中添加内容——制作一个跟踪全球政策从降息到加息的实时帖子。从那以后，我注意到阿塞拜疆、赞比亚、巴西、俄罗斯、冰岛、安哥拉、斯里兰卡、韩国、挪威和新西兰等国央行大大小小地加息。今年迄今为止，我总共统计了36家央行94次加息。</blockquote></p><p> Now obviously if this was just one rate hike by one central bank, or even a handful, it might not even warrant a mention. But when you start talking about these kinds of numbers, it’s hard not to notice a pattern. In that respect, the chart below does a good job of mapping that pattern precisely:</p><p><blockquote>显然，如果这只是一家央行的一次加息，甚至是几家央行的一次加息，甚至可能不值得一提。但当你开始谈论这类数字时，很难不注意到一种模式。在这方面，下图很好地精确地映射了这种模式：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29b8159041554381447c992520819a45\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It shows the proportion of central banks in rate-hike mode (defined as the last interest rate move being an increase). After dropping to zero early in 2020, fully two-thirds of emerging market central banks now have pivoted into rate-hike mode.</p><p><blockquote>它显示了处于加息模式（定义为最后一次利率变动为加息）的央行比例。在2020年初降至零后，整整三分之二的新兴市场央行现在已经转向加息模式。</blockquote></p><p> There are a few common themes as to why countries around the world are raising rates, including inflation, currency and financial stability. Let’s take a closer look:</p><p><blockquote>关于世界各国为何加息，有几个共同的主题，包括通胀、货币和金融稳定，我们来仔细看看：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation:</b> We quickly went from few people talking about inflation at the start of the year to inflation being perhaps the hot macro topic of the past few months.</p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀：</b>我们很快就从年初很少有人谈论通胀变成了过去几个月通胀可能是热门的宏观话题。</blockquote></p><p> Base effects (easier to record a higher pace of growth when comparing to a low base), bounce backs (reopening + stimulus = strong demand), and backlogs (supply-chain hell) combined to drive a sharp shift in both inflation and inflation expectations.</p><p><blockquote>基数效应（与低基数相比，更容易记录更高的增长速度）、反弹（重新开放+刺激=强劲需求）和积压（供应链地狱）共同推动了通胀和通胀预期的急剧转变。</blockquote></p><p> Emerging economies are particularly sensitive to inflation. In recent times, as a group, they’ve tended to see an annual rate of inflation twice that which you would see in developed economies. Moreover, you only need to go back just over 20 years to see hyperinflation in emerging economies (as a group they saw peak inflation of 115% in 1993, and double-digit inflation all the way through to 2000).</p><p><blockquote>新兴经济体对通胀尤为敏感。最近，作为一个群体，他们的年通胀率往往是发达经济体的两倍。此外，你只需要回到20多年前就能看到新兴经济体的恶性通胀（作为一个群体，他们在1993年看到了115%的峰值通胀，一直到2000年都是两位数的通胀）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f12c26efb245d585640b77fb54875e5f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Think about your average emerging market central bank governor — many of them were probably junior economists 20 years ago. Their formative years were no doubt heavily influenced by runaway inflation. Little wonder then they are hot on the trigger to hike rates as inflation heats up.</p><p><blockquote>想想普通的新兴市场央行行长——他们中的许多人在20年前可能还是初级经济学家。毫无疑问，他们的成长岁月深受失控通货膨胀的影响。难怪随着通胀升温，他们急于加息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Currency:</b> Many central banks have also lifted rates in effort to prop their currencies up as the U.S. dollar strengthens. The line of reasoning here is two-fold: higher inflation (all else equal) means a fundamentally weaker currency, and higher interest rates appeal to carry traders looking to bank the higher yields: bringing flows and lifting demand for a country’s currency.</p><p><blockquote><b>货币：</b>随着美元走强，许多央行也提高了利率，以支撑本国货币。这里的推理有两个方面：更高的通胀（其他条件相同）意味着货币从根本上走弱，而更高的利率对希望存入更高收益率的套利交易者有吸引力：带来资金流动并提振对一国货币的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial stability:</b> This term is basically a euphemism for “try not to blow up bubbles.” In other words, if you keep rates too low for too long you risk igniting asset-price bubbles, which if they burst in a chaotic fashion can trigger financial instability. Case in point: the housing bubble of the mid-2000s, its subsequent bursting and the ensuing Great Financial Crisis.</p><p><blockquote><b>财务稳定性：</b>这个术语基本上是“尽量不要吹大泡沫”的委婉说法。换句话说，如果你长期将利率保持在过低水平，你就有可能点燃资产价格泡沫，如果泡沫以混乱的方式破裂，可能会引发金融不稳定。典型的例子是2000年代中期的房地产泡沫，随后的破裂和随之而来的大金融危机。</blockquote></p><p> On that note, we probably should pay more attention to this aspect, as developed-economy housing market valuations have already sailed past the pre-financial crisis highs.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，我们可能应该更加关注这方面，因为发达经济体的房地产市场估值已经超过了金融危机前的高点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e4ea7b7b6c026d4abe60466d5bc8ac5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yes that’s right: Ultra-low borrowing costs have helped push housing market valuations in some countries well above pre-financial crisis levels. This is one reason why it’s said that monetary policy is a blunt tool — it roughly does the job when it comes to avoiding deeper economic recessions and depressions, but the price is often higher asset prices.</p><p><blockquote>是的，没错：超低的借贷成本帮助一些国家的房地产市场估值远高于金融危机前的水平。这就是为什么有人说货币政策是一种生硬工具的原因之一——在避免更深的经济衰退和萧条方面，它大致完成了工作，但代价往往是更高的资产价格。</blockquote></p><p> “Expect less of a tailwind for risk assets, upward pressure on borrowing costs, and likely more volatile markets going forward.” The global policy pivot to rate hikes (likely to be soon joined by Canada and the U.K.) means investors can expect incrementally less of a tailwind for risk assets, upward pressure on borrowing costs, and likely more volatile markets going forward.</p><p><blockquote>“预计风险资产的顺风会减少，借贷成本会面临上行压力，未来市场可能会更加波动。”全球政策转向加息（加拿大和英国可能很快也会加入）意味着投资者可以预期风险资产的顺风会逐渐减弱，借贷成本会面临上行压力，未来市场可能会更加波动。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, mapping out the previous paths in policy, the chart below shows how shifts from easing to tightening at best means a leveling-out or regime shift in the market; e.g. from a near vertical line to more chopping and ranging. At worst, if tight enough for long enough, this policy change can trigger an outright shift from bull market to bear market.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，下图描绘了之前的政策路径，显示了从宽松到紧缩的转变充其量意味着市场的平稳或制度转变；例如，从一条接近垂直线到更多的切割和范围。在最坏的情况下，如果足够长的时间足够紧张，这种政策变化可能会引发从牛市到熊市的彻底转变。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d54c8bc1e0bc437bcfc2ce03e8655e14\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> You might be thinking, what do all these random small, emerging-market central banks hiking interest rates have to do with the S&P500? You’ve probably heard the saying that when the Fed sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold, but in this sense, given the Fed is still likely to be dragging its feet on policy for some time, it’s almost more that the rest of the world catches a cold and U.S. equities sneeze.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会想，所有这些随机的小型新兴市场央行加息与标准普尔500有什么关系？你可能听说过这样一句话，当美联储打喷嚏时，世界其他地区就会感冒，但从这个意义上说，鉴于美联储仍有可能在一段时间内拖延政策，几乎更多的是世界其他地区感冒了，美国股市也会打喷嚏。</blockquote></p><p> You only need to go back to 2015-16 where much of the volatility in U.S. markets back then was driven or triggered by issues in China and emerging markets, or in the post-financial crisis period when the eurozone debt crisis was raging and weighing on global investor sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>你只需要回到2015-16年，当时美国市场的波动很大程度上是由中国和新兴市场的问题驱动或引发的，或者是后金融危机时期，欧元区债务危机肆虐并拖累全球投资者情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond regional crises — which can be precipitated by premature stimulus removal — the bigger issue is the common themes motivating monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>除了过早取消刺激措施可能引发的地区危机之外，更大的问题是激励货币政策的共同主题。</blockquote></p><p> While each central bank has its own set of circumstances, the common theme is a reaction to higher inflation, stronger growth and a desire to avoid overcooking markets. It’s the smaller/developing-country central banks that are most exposed to these global trends, and so we can look at them as bellwethers or leading indicators.</p><p><blockquote>虽然每个央行都有自己的一套情况，但共同的主题是对更高的通胀、更强劲的增长和避免市场过度烹饪的愿望的反应。小国/发展中国家的央行最容易受到这些全球趋势的影响，因此我们可以将它们视为领头羊或领先指标。</blockquote></p><p> The forces in motion that triggered a rate hike in Mozambique are the same forces that will ultimately drive the Fed to step away from stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>引发莫桑比克加息的力量与最终将促使美联储放弃刺激措施的力量相同。</blockquote></p><p> It may take time, but one thing I know to be true is that these things go in cycles. While it looks and feels like the Fed has your back forever in the markets right now, this won’t be always true. “Don’t fight the Fed” means swim with the tide, not against it, and the tides here are clearly turning.</p><p><blockquote>这可能需要时间，但有一件事我知道是真的，那就是这些事情是循环往复的。虽然现在看起来和感觉上美联储在市场上永远支持你，但这并不总是正确的。“不要与美联储对抗”意味着随波逐流，而不是逆潮流而动，这里的潮流显然正在转向。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-one-interest-rate-hike-by-a-small-african-nation-could-derail-powells-fed-policy-plans-and-sink-stocks-11637625129?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-one-interest-rate-hike-by-a-small-african-nation-could-derail-powells-fed-policy-plans-and-sink-stocks-11637625129?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150397775","content_text":"Investors need to stop obsessing about the Fed taper and pay attention to the dozens of central banks that have hiked rates so far this year\nMarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, iStockphoto\nThe Federal Reserve is beginning the first phase of its very gentle, very conditional, very cautious path to stimulus removal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, just nominated for a second term at the helm of the U.S. central bank, is intent on pushing back against any speculation about thinking about talking about rate hikes.\nBut around the rest of the world, something quite different is going on in the halls of central monetary authorities from Latin America to Eastern Europe, Africa, and lately even some developed-market countries.\nBack in January 2021 I wrote a half-joking, half-serious tweet, remarking that the 300-basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Mozambique was a “Sign of things to come…”\nIt was Mozambique’s first interest-rate hike in four years, and came in response to what it described at the time as a “substantial upward revision of its outlook for inflation.”\nFast-forward 10 months. Without really planning it, I decided to add to that tweet — making a live thread tracking the global policy pivot from rate cuts to rate hikes. Since then I’ve noted rate increases both large and small by the central banks of Azerbaijan, Zambia, Brazil, Russia, Iceland, Angola, Sri Lanka, South Korea, Norway, and New Zealand, to name a few. In total, I have counted 94 interest rate hikes across 36 central banks so far this year.\nNow obviously if this was just one rate hike by one central bank, or even a handful, it might not even warrant a mention. But when you start talking about these kinds of numbers, it’s hard not to notice a pattern. In that respect, the chart below does a good job of mapping that pattern precisely:\n\nIt shows the proportion of central banks in rate-hike mode (defined as the last interest rate move being an increase). After dropping to zero early in 2020, fully two-thirds of emerging market central banks now have pivoted into rate-hike mode.\nThere are a few common themes as to why countries around the world are raising rates, including inflation, currency and financial stability. Let’s take a closer look:\nInflation: We quickly went from few people talking about inflation at the start of the year to inflation being perhaps the hot macro topic of the past few months.\nBase effects (easier to record a higher pace of growth when comparing to a low base), bounce backs (reopening + stimulus = strong demand), and backlogs (supply-chain hell) combined to drive a sharp shift in both inflation and inflation expectations.\nEmerging economies are particularly sensitive to inflation. In recent times, as a group, they’ve tended to see an annual rate of inflation twice that which you would see in developed economies. Moreover, you only need to go back just over 20 years to see hyperinflation in emerging economies (as a group they saw peak inflation of 115% in 1993, and double-digit inflation all the way through to 2000).\n\nThink about your average emerging market central bank governor — many of them were probably junior economists 20 years ago. Their formative years were no doubt heavily influenced by runaway inflation. Little wonder then they are hot on the trigger to hike rates as inflation heats up.\nCurrency: Many central banks have also lifted rates in effort to prop their currencies up as the U.S. dollar strengthens. The line of reasoning here is two-fold: higher inflation (all else equal) means a fundamentally weaker currency, and higher interest rates appeal to carry traders looking to bank the higher yields: bringing flows and lifting demand for a country’s currency.\nFinancial stability: This term is basically a euphemism for “try not to blow up bubbles.” In other words, if you keep rates too low for too long you risk igniting asset-price bubbles, which if they burst in a chaotic fashion can trigger financial instability. Case in point: the housing bubble of the mid-2000s, its subsequent bursting and the ensuing Great Financial Crisis.\nOn that note, we probably should pay more attention to this aspect, as developed-economy housing market valuations have already sailed past the pre-financial crisis highs.\n\nYes that’s right: Ultra-low borrowing costs have helped push housing market valuations in some countries well above pre-financial crisis levels. This is one reason why it’s said that monetary policy is a blunt tool — it roughly does the job when it comes to avoiding deeper economic recessions and depressions, but the price is often higher asset prices.\n\n “Expect less of a tailwind for risk assets, upward pressure on borrowing costs, and likely more volatile markets going forward.”\n\nThe global policy pivot to rate hikes (likely to be soon joined by Canada and the U.K.) means investors can expect incrementally less of a tailwind for risk assets, upward pressure on borrowing costs, and likely more volatile markets going forward.\nIndeed, mapping out the previous paths in policy, the chart below shows how shifts from easing to tightening at best means a leveling-out or regime shift in the market; e.g. from a near vertical line to more chopping and ranging. At worst, if tight enough for long enough, this policy change can trigger an outright shift from bull market to bear market.\n\nYou might be thinking, what do all these random small, emerging-market central banks hiking interest rates have to do with the S&P500? You’ve probably heard the saying that when the Fed sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold, but in this sense, given the Fed is still likely to be dragging its feet on policy for some time, it’s almost more that the rest of the world catches a cold and U.S. equities sneeze.\nYou only need to go back to 2015-16 where much of the volatility in U.S. markets back then was driven or triggered by issues in China and emerging markets, or in the post-financial crisis period when the eurozone debt crisis was raging and weighing on global investor sentiment.\nBeyond regional crises — which can be precipitated by premature stimulus removal — the bigger issue is the common themes motivating monetary policy.\nWhile each central bank has its own set of circumstances, the common theme is a reaction to higher inflation, stronger growth and a desire to avoid overcooking markets. It’s the smaller/developing-country central banks that are most exposed to these global trends, and so we can look at them as bellwethers or leading indicators.\nThe forces in motion that triggered a rate hike in Mozambique are the same forces that will ultimately drive the Fed to step away from stimulus.\nIt may take time, but one thing I know to be true is that these things go in cycles. While it looks and feels like the Fed has your back forever in the markets right now, this won’t be always true. “Don’t fight the Fed” means swim with the tide, not against it, and the tides here are clearly turning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":42,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/875876401"}
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