LianHin
2021-11-22
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Fastly: Still Remaining On The Sidelines For Now<blockquote>Fastly：目前仍处于观望状态</blockquote>
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The stock has traded down around 15% since the company's earnings release, though continues to trade at a premium 17x forward revenue multiple.</p><p><blockquote>Fastly (FSLY) 公布了良好的第三季度收益，收入高于预期，但调整后 EBITDA 和自由现金流为负，继续引发人们对长期盈利能力的质疑。自公司财报发布以来，该股已下跌约 15%，但继续以 17 倍的远期收入倍数溢价进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Management also provided guidance for Q4 which seemed a little soft compared to expectations. On top of that, their $1 billion revenue target by 2025 seems positive at face value and represents a 30% growth CAGR, though they did acknowledge that some growth could come from M&A, meaning organic growth might be lower than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还提供了第四季度的指导，但与预期相比似乎有点疲软。最重要的是，他们到 2025 年 10 亿美元的收入目标表面上看起来是积极的，代表着 30% 的复合年增长率，尽管他们确实承认一些增长可能来自并购，这意味着有机增长可能低于 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb02c16fe105dbc0c38553ce010703d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the growth prospects have improved, I still remain on the sidelines and wait for a better entry point. I believe there remains execution risk to the growth story and even though the $1 billion revenue target seems positive, I believe investors will turn their focus towards profitability and the potential need to tap the debt and/or equity markets to fund growth given their negative free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>虽然增长前景有所改善，但我仍在观望，等待更好的切入点。我认为增长故事仍然存在执行风险，尽管 10 亿美元的收入目标似乎是积极的，但我相信投资者将把注意力转向盈利能力以及利用债务和/或股票市场为增长提供资金的潜在需求，因为他们的自由现金流为负。</blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about FSLY in mid-September when the stock was trading around $45 and noted a better entry point would be below $40. Since then, the stock has been quite volatile, yet we are still around the same $45 level.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写关于 FSLY 的文章是在 9 月中旬，当时该股交易价格约为 45 美元，并指出更好的切入点是低于 40 美元。从那时起，该股一直波动很大，但我们仍然在45美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Fastly operates a CDN (content delivery network). In other words, that have a network of services and data centers globally distributed that makes it easier for consumers to access faster internet. Through their edge cloud platform, FSLY's infrastructure is closer to the consumer's desired destination, which increases internet response times and can reduce latency.</p><p><blockquote>Fastly运营CDN（内容交付网络）。换句话说，它们拥有遍布全球的服务网络和数据中心，使消费者更容易访问更快的互联网。通过他们的边缘云平台，FSLY的基础设施更接近消费者期望的目的地，这增加了互联网响应时间并可以减少延迟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Financial Review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期财务回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Revenue during Q3 grew 23% to $87 million, which came in just over $3 million above expectations for $83-84 million. Even though revenue had nearly $1 million impact from some write-downs associated with their Signal Sciences acquisition, growth was still pretty strong.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度收入增长 23%，达到 8700 万美元，比预期的 8300 万至 8400 万美元高出 300 多万美元。尽管与收购 Signal Sciences 相关的一些减记对收入产生了近 100 万美元的影响，但增长仍然相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company's adjusted EBITDA loss came in around $5.4 million, which was much worse than the profit of $0.8 million last year. It also should be noted that within adjusted EBITDA, the company is adding back a lot of stock compensation, to the tune of $36.6 million during the quarter. On a GAAP basis, the company's net loss was over $56 million.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司调整后的 EBITDA 亏损约为 540 万美元，远低于去年 80 万美元的利润。还应该指出的是，在调整后的 EBITDA 中，该公司增加了大量股票薪酬，本季度达到 3660 万美元。按 GAAP 计算，该公司净亏损超过 5600 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, investors are still more focused around the company's revenue growth potential, which I will discuss later on, but eventually FSLY will need to demonstrate a path towards consistent profitability.</p><p><blockquote>是的，投资者仍然更加关注公司的收入增长潜力，我将在稍后讨论，但最终 FSLY 需要展示一条实现持续盈利的道路。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec467a66d0ab95e9501098d2063b3a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"82\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even when looking at the company's free cash flow metrics, only once in the past 7+ quarters have been positive. The cash burn rate remains quite large and eventually we could see the company tap the debt and/or equity market for additional liquidity.</p><p><blockquote>即使查看该公司的自由现金流指标，过去 7 个以上季度中也只有一次为正。现金消耗率仍然相当高，最终我们可能会看到该公司利用债务和/或股票市场来获取额外的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> With almost $1.1 billion of cash and marketable securities combined with over $900 million of long-term debt, the company is sitting on just $200 million of net cash.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有近 11 亿美元的现金和有价证券，加上超过 9 亿美元的长期债务，净现金仅为 2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the company continues to expand their enterprise customer base, which reached 430 customers during the quarter. Net retention rate was 112%, which improved quite a bit from the 93% reported in the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的方面来看，该公司继续扩大其企业客户群，本季度达到 430 名客户。净保留率为 112%，比去年同期的 93% 有了很大提高。</blockquote></p><p> However, when we look at a dollar-based net expansion rate, this came in at 118% during the quarter, down from 126% last quarter. Yes, this metric remains well above 100%, which signals continued strong growth, but the sequential slowdown may wave a slight caution flag for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我们查看以美元为基础的净扩张率时，本季度的净扩张率为 118%，低于上一季度的 126%。是的，这一指标仍远高于 100%，这表明经济持续强劲增长，但连续放缓可能会给一些投资者带来轻微的警告信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056d4f1c73e976c2174327ad0c8ea5a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Management provided guidance for Q4 which came in a little light of expectations. Revenue is expected to be $90-93 million and was a little below consensus expectations of $94.5 million. Also, non-GAAP operating loss is expected to be $15-18 million.</p><p><blockquote>管理层为第四季度提供了指导，但这有点符合预期。收入预计为 90-9300 万美元，略低于市场普遍预期的 9450 万美元。此外，非 GAAP 运营亏损预计为 15-1800 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the company talked about their $1 billion revenue goal by 2025. Optically, it sounds great to say the company is going to generate $1 billion of revenue. Looking at little further into this, $1 billion of revenue would represent a growth CAGR of ~30% for the next four years. Yes, this is a very strong growth rate, but the stock's valuation is already pricing in high expectations.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，该公司还谈到了到 2025 年实现 10 亿美元收入的目标。从光学角度来看，说该公司将产生 10 亿美元的收入听起来很棒。再深入研究一下，10 亿美元的收入将代表未来四年约 30% 的复合年增长率。是的，这是一个非常强劲的增长率，但该股的估值已经处于高预期中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Recent Updates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他近期更新</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in June, the company went through a widely publicized service outage that resulted in the company issuing credit to customers, the slowdown of existing traffic expansion, and the loss of a top 10 customer. Rumors also surfaced that Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)stopped using Fastly's services after the outage and it seems like the service outage impacts continue to weigh on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>早在6月份，该公司就经历了一次广为人知的服务中断，导致该公司向客户发放信用，现有流量扩张放缓，并失去了一名前10名客户。还有传言称，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）在中断后停止使用 Fastly 的服务，服务中断的影响似乎继续给该股带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> During the conference call,management was asked about the extent to which traffic volumes have started to come back from some of these larger clients.</p><p><blockquote>在电话会议期间， 管理层被问及一些较大客户的流量已经开始在多大程度上恢复。</blockquote></p><p> So I think, as we've said, the top customer didn't return traffic, they returned to traffic. They do continue to ramp. The larger customers, when they come back, typically ramp their traffic back over time. I don't have a specific timeline, but they are back and that will increase over time. So while the traffic continues to ramp, it seems like it could take several quarters for the traffic to fully come back, that is if Amazon (or other larger clients) wants to come back to FSLY.</p><p><blockquote>所以我认为，正如我们所说，顶级客户没有返回流量，他们返回了流量。他们确实继续上升。大客户回来后，通常会随着时间的推移增加流量。我没有具体的时间表，但他们回来了，而且会随着时间的推移而增加。因此，虽然流量继续增加，但流量似乎需要几个季度才能完全恢复，也就是说，如果亚马逊（或其他更大的客户）想要回到FSLY。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f894336d393079f47e887e7418627c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CDN Traffic Share</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：CDN流量份额</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When looking at CDN Traffic Share, it continues to seem like Fastly has permanently lost a good chunk of their Amazon business. The charts above show the past 30-day CDN usage of Amazon, with the two primary resources being Amazon CloudFront and Akamai(NASDAQ:AKAM). Yes, Fastly is still seeing some traffic flow through their system, but they remain third on the totem pole and may have a long pathway back towards becoming a primary provider.</p><p><blockquote>当查看CDN流量份额时，Fastly似乎已经永久失去了亚马逊业务的很大一部分。上面的图表显示了亚马逊过去30天的CDN使用情况，两个主要资源是亚马逊CloudFront和Akamai（纳斯达克股票代码：AKAM）。是的，Fastly仍然看到一些流量通过他们的系统，但他们仍然是图腾柱上的第三名，可能还有很长的路要走，才能成为主要提供商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Given the volatile news flow over the past several months, we have seen the stock trade in quite a volatile fashion, with +/- 3% days seemingly becoming the natural stock movement. Since reporting earnings, the stock has been down around 15% and remains well below their previous all-time high around $125.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去几个月不稳定的新闻流，我们已经看到股票交易以相当不稳定的方式进行，+/-3%的日子似乎成为股票的自然走势。自公布财报以来，该股已下跌约 15%，仍远低于之前约 125 美元的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> The volatility does provide some interesting entry points for investors to make short-term money, however, I continue to believe there remains some execution risk to the stock. I have long-term confidence in the company's edge platform, but I believe valuation fully reflects long-term confidence, and investors should approach with caution.</p><p><blockquote>波动性确实为投资者短期赚钱提供了一些有趣的切入点，但是，我仍然认为该股仍存在一些执行风险。我对公司的edge平台有长期信心，但我认为估值充分反映了长期信心，投资者应谨慎对待。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e487598a9a605d8dce902692a2f9ceb1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a current market cap of $5.3 billion and net cash of $200 million, this results in the company having an enterprise value of $5.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>目前市值为53亿美元，净现金为2亿美元，这使得该公司的企业价值为51亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did provide a 2025 revenue target of $1 billion, we can start to view valuation in a few different ways.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司确实提供了 2025 年 10 亿美元的收入目标，但我们可以开始以几种不同的方式看待估值。</blockquote></p><p> First, if we assume the stock will trade at a 10x forward revenue multiple at the end of 2024 and by using the company's $1 billion revenue target, this could imply an enterprise value of $10 billion by the end of 2024. Given that we are already near the end of 2021, this would imply enterprise value growing at a ~25% CAGR through 2024.</p><p><blockquote>首先，如果我们假设该股票在 2024 年底的远期收入倍数为 10 倍，并且使用该公司 10 亿美元的收入目标，这可能意味着到 2024 年底企业价值将达到 100 亿美元。鉴于我们已经接近2021年底，这意味着到2024年，企业价值将以约25%的CAGR增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, this valuation method is a little challenging because in a few years, revenue growth may be below the 30% CAGR that is expected through 2025. Thus, if the company is only growing 20-25% (and assuming profitability has significantly improved), then maybe the multiple is only 8-9x forward revenue, which would imply an enterprise value growth CAGR of ~15-20% for the next few years. That's still a solid return, but at current valuation, it does not leave much room for error.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这种估值方法有点挑战性，因为几年后，收入增长可能会低于预计到2025年的30%复合年增长率。因此，如果公司仅增长20-25%（假设盈利能力显着提高），那么该倍数可能仅为远期收入的8-9倍，这意味着未来几年企业价值增长CAGR约为15-20%。这仍然是一个可观的回报，但以目前的估值来看，它没有太多出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p> Another way to view valuation could be the following. Part of the $1 billion of revenue by 2025 could come from inorganic contributions, thus, the company's valuation multiple should better reflect their organic growth rate. By adding acquisitions to the equation and assuming a lower organic growth, we can still get to the company's ~30% revenue growth CAGR, but maybe the forward revenue multiple pulls back towards 5-8x. In addition, this forward revenue multiple would assume a significant expansion in profitability margins and positive free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>另一种查看估值的方法如下。到 2025 年 10 亿美元收入的一部分可能来自无机贡献，因此，该公司的估值倍数应该更好地反映其有机增长率。通过将收购添加到等式中并假设有机增长较低，我们仍然可以实现公司约 30% 的收入增长 CAGR，但也许未来的收入倍数会回落至 5-8 倍。此外，该远期收入倍数将假设利润率和正自由现金流显着扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Under this scenario, we could see the stock's enterprise value grow at 10%+ CAGR over the next few years, which does not seem overly attractive considering the current valuation and embedded execution risks.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我们可能会看到该股的企业价值在未来几年内以 10% 以上的复合年增长率增长，考虑到当前的估值和嵌入的执行风险，这似乎并不太有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently trades just under 17x forward revenue as investors have confidence in the long-term trajectory. However, I continue to remain on the sidelines for now and the stock already is pricing in a strong rebound. I think a better entry point would be under $40.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对长期轨迹充满信心，该股目前的交易价格略低于 17 倍。然而，我目前继续观望，该股已经出现强劲反弹。我认为更好的切入点应该在 40 美元以下。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fastly: Still Remaining On The Sidelines For Now<blockquote>Fastly：目前仍处于观望状态</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFastly: Still Remaining On The Sidelines For Now<blockquote>Fastly：目前仍处于观望状态</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-19 20:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Fastly reported a better-than-expected Q3, though continued adjusted EBITDA losses and negative free cash flow are starting to drain the company's liquidity.</li> <li>Management provided weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance, though the $1 billion revenue target by 2025 optically looks nice.</li> <li>Valuation seems to be pricing in strong growth over the coming years, and at 17x forward revenue, I remain on the sidelines waiting for a better entry point.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142c5f2c4a4ce915516d1e3e32c7b9d2\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Leon Neal/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Fastly 公布的第三季度业绩好于预期，但持续的调整后 EBITDA 亏损和负自由现金流开始耗尽公司的流动性。</li><li>管理层提供的第四季度指引弱于预期，尽管到 2025 年 10 亿美元的收入目标从表面上看不错。</li><li>估值似乎预示着未来几年的强劲增长，由于预期收入为 17 倍，我仍在观望，等待更好的切入点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>莱昂·尼尔/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Fastly (FSLY) reported a good Q3 earnings with revenue above expectations, though the negative adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow continue to place questions around longer-term profitability. The stock has traded down around 15% since the company's earnings release, though continues to trade at a premium 17x forward revenue multiple.</p><p><blockquote>Fastly (FSLY) 公布了良好的第三季度收益，收入高于预期，但调整后 EBITDA 和自由现金流为负，继续引发人们对长期盈利能力的质疑。自公司财报发布以来，该股已下跌约 15%，但继续以 17 倍的远期收入倍数溢价进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> Management also provided guidance for Q4 which seemed a little soft compared to expectations. On top of that, their $1 billion revenue target by 2025 seems positive at face value and represents a 30% growth CAGR, though they did acknowledge that some growth could come from M&A, meaning organic growth might be lower than 30%.</p><p><blockquote>管理层还提供了第四季度的指导，但与预期相比似乎有点疲软。最重要的是，他们到 2025 年 10 亿美元的收入目标表面上看起来是积极的，代表着 30% 的复合年增长率，尽管他们确实承认一些增长可能来自并购，这意味着有机增长可能低于 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb02c16fe105dbc0c38553ce010703d2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While the growth prospects have improved, I still remain on the sidelines and wait for a better entry point. I believe there remains execution risk to the growth story and even though the $1 billion revenue target seems positive, I believe investors will turn their focus towards profitability and the potential need to tap the debt and/or equity markets to fund growth given their negative free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>虽然增长前景有所改善，但我仍在观望，等待更好的切入点。我认为增长故事仍然存在执行风险，尽管 10 亿美元的收入目标似乎是积极的，但我相信投资者将把注意力转向盈利能力以及利用债务和/或股票市场为增长提供资金的潜在需求，因为他们的自由现金流为负。</blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about FSLY in mid-September when the stock was trading around $45 and noted a better entry point would be below $40. Since then, the stock has been quite volatile, yet we are still around the same $45 level.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写关于 FSLY 的文章是在 9 月中旬，当时该股交易价格约为 45 美元，并指出更好的切入点是低于 40 美元。从那时起，该股一直波动很大，但我们仍然在45美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Fastly operates a CDN (content delivery network). In other words, that have a network of services and data centers globally distributed that makes it easier for consumers to access faster internet. Through their edge cloud platform, FSLY's infrastructure is closer to the consumer's desired destination, which increases internet response times and can reduce latency.</p><p><blockquote>Fastly运营CDN（内容交付网络）。换句话说，它们拥有遍布全球的服务网络和数据中心，使消费者更容易访问更快的互联网。通过他们的边缘云平台，FSLY的基础设施更接近消费者期望的目的地，这增加了互联网响应时间并可以减少延迟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Financial Review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期财务回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Revenue during Q3 grew 23% to $87 million, which came in just over $3 million above expectations for $83-84 million. Even though revenue had nearly $1 million impact from some write-downs associated with their Signal Sciences acquisition, growth was still pretty strong.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度收入增长 23%，达到 8700 万美元，比预期的 8300 万至 8400 万美元高出 300 多万美元。尽管与收购 Signal Sciences 相关的一些减记对收入产生了近 100 万美元的影响，但增长仍然相当强劲。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company's adjusted EBITDA loss came in around $5.4 million, which was much worse than the profit of $0.8 million last year. It also should be noted that within adjusted EBITDA, the company is adding back a lot of stock compensation, to the tune of $36.6 million during the quarter. On a GAAP basis, the company's net loss was over $56 million.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司调整后的 EBITDA 亏损约为 540 万美元，远低于去年 80 万美元的利润。还应该指出的是，在调整后的 EBITDA 中，该公司增加了大量股票薪酬，本季度达到 3660 万美元。按 GAAP 计算，该公司净亏损超过 5600 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, investors are still more focused around the company's revenue growth potential, which I will discuss later on, but eventually FSLY will need to demonstrate a path towards consistent profitability.</p><p><blockquote>是的，投资者仍然更加关注公司的收入增长潜力，我将在稍后讨论，但最终 FSLY 需要展示一条实现持续盈利的道路。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec467a66d0ab95e9501098d2063b3a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"82\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even when looking at the company's free cash flow metrics, only once in the past 7+ quarters have been positive. The cash burn rate remains quite large and eventually we could see the company tap the debt and/or equity market for additional liquidity.</p><p><blockquote>即使查看该公司的自由现金流指标，过去 7 个以上季度中也只有一次为正。现金消耗率仍然相当高，最终我们可能会看到该公司利用债务和/或股票市场来获取额外的流动性。</blockquote></p><p> With almost $1.1 billion of cash and marketable securities combined with over $900 million of long-term debt, the company is sitting on just $200 million of net cash.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有近 11 亿美元的现金和有价证券，加上超过 9 亿美元的长期债务，净现金仅为 2 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a positive note, the company continues to expand their enterprise customer base, which reached 430 customers during the quarter. Net retention rate was 112%, which improved quite a bit from the 93% reported in the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的方面来看，该公司继续扩大其企业客户群，本季度达到 430 名客户。净保留率为 112%，比去年同期的 93% 有了很大提高。</blockquote></p><p> However, when we look at a dollar-based net expansion rate, this came in at 118% during the quarter, down from 126% last quarter. Yes, this metric remains well above 100%, which signals continued strong growth, but the sequential slowdown may wave a slight caution flag for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我们查看以美元为基础的净扩张率时，本季度的净扩张率为 118%，低于上一季度的 126%。是的，这一指标仍远高于 100%，这表明经济持续强劲增长，但连续放缓可能会给一些投资者带来轻微的警告信号。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056d4f1c73e976c2174327ad0c8ea5a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Management provided guidance for Q4 which came in a little light of expectations. Revenue is expected to be $90-93 million and was a little below consensus expectations of $94.5 million. Also, non-GAAP operating loss is expected to be $15-18 million.</p><p><blockquote>管理层为第四季度提供了指导，但这有点符合预期。收入预计为 90-9300 万美元，略低于市场普遍预期的 9450 万美元。此外，非 GAAP 运营亏损预计为 15-1800 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, the company talked about their $1 billion revenue goal by 2025. Optically, it sounds great to say the company is going to generate $1 billion of revenue. Looking at little further into this, $1 billion of revenue would represent a growth CAGR of ~30% for the next four years. Yes, this is a very strong growth rate, but the stock's valuation is already pricing in high expectations.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，该公司还谈到了到 2025 年实现 10 亿美元收入的目标。从光学角度来看，说该公司将产生 10 亿美元的收入听起来很棒。再深入研究一下，10 亿美元的收入将代表未来四年约 30% 的复合年增长率。是的，这是一个非常强劲的增长率，但该股的估值已经处于高预期中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Recent Updates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他近期更新</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in June, the company went through a widely publicized service outage that resulted in the company issuing credit to customers, the slowdown of existing traffic expansion, and the loss of a top 10 customer. Rumors also surfaced that Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)stopped using Fastly's services after the outage and it seems like the service outage impacts continue to weigh on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>早在6月份，该公司就经历了一次广为人知的服务中断，导致该公司向客户发放信用，现有流量扩张放缓，并失去了一名前10名客户。还有传言称，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）在中断后停止使用 Fastly 的服务，服务中断的影响似乎继续给该股带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> During the conference call,management was asked about the extent to which traffic volumes have started to come back from some of these larger clients.</p><p><blockquote>在电话会议期间， 管理层被问及一些较大客户的流量已经开始在多大程度上恢复。</blockquote></p><p> So I think, as we've said, the top customer didn't return traffic, they returned to traffic. They do continue to ramp. The larger customers, when they come back, typically ramp their traffic back over time. I don't have a specific timeline, but they are back and that will increase over time. So while the traffic continues to ramp, it seems like it could take several quarters for the traffic to fully come back, that is if Amazon (or other larger clients) wants to come back to FSLY.</p><p><blockquote>所以我认为，正如我们所说，顶级客户没有返回流量，他们返回了流量。他们确实继续上升。大客户回来后，通常会随着时间的推移增加流量。我没有具体的时间表，但他们回来了，而且会随着时间的推移而增加。因此，虽然流量继续增加，但流量似乎需要几个季度才能完全恢复，也就是说，如果亚马逊（或其他更大的客户）想要回到FSLY。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f894336d393079f47e887e7418627c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CDN Traffic Share</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：CDN流量份额</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When looking at CDN Traffic Share, it continues to seem like Fastly has permanently lost a good chunk of their Amazon business. The charts above show the past 30-day CDN usage of Amazon, with the two primary resources being Amazon CloudFront and Akamai(NASDAQ:AKAM). Yes, Fastly is still seeing some traffic flow through their system, but they remain third on the totem pole and may have a long pathway back towards becoming a primary provider.</p><p><blockquote>当查看CDN流量份额时，Fastly似乎已经永久失去了亚马逊业务的很大一部分。上面的图表显示了亚马逊过去30天的CDN使用情况，两个主要资源是亚马逊CloudFront和Akamai（纳斯达克股票代码：AKAM）。是的，Fastly仍然看到一些流量通过他们的系统，但他们仍然是图腾柱上的第三名，可能还有很长的路要走，才能成为主要提供商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Given the volatile news flow over the past several months, we have seen the stock trade in quite a volatile fashion, with +/- 3% days seemingly becoming the natural stock movement. Since reporting earnings, the stock has been down around 15% and remains well below their previous all-time high around $125.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于过去几个月不稳定的新闻流，我们已经看到股票交易以相当不稳定的方式进行，+/-3%的日子似乎成为股票的自然走势。自公布财报以来，该股已下跌约 15%，仍远低于之前约 125 美元的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> The volatility does provide some interesting entry points for investors to make short-term money, however, I continue to believe there remains some execution risk to the stock. I have long-term confidence in the company's edge platform, but I believe valuation fully reflects long-term confidence, and investors should approach with caution.</p><p><blockquote>波动性确实为投资者短期赚钱提供了一些有趣的切入点，但是，我仍然认为该股仍存在一些执行风险。我对公司的edge平台有长期信心，但我认为估值充分反映了长期信心，投资者应谨慎对待。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e487598a9a605d8dce902692a2f9ceb1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With a current market cap of $5.3 billion and net cash of $200 million, this results in the company having an enterprise value of $5.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>目前市值为53亿美元，净现金为2亿美元，这使得该公司的企业价值为51亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the company did provide a 2025 revenue target of $1 billion, we can start to view valuation in a few different ways.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司确实提供了 2025 年 10 亿美元的收入目标，但我们可以开始以几种不同的方式看待估值。</blockquote></p><p> First, if we assume the stock will trade at a 10x forward revenue multiple at the end of 2024 and by using the company's $1 billion revenue target, this could imply an enterprise value of $10 billion by the end of 2024. Given that we are already near the end of 2021, this would imply enterprise value growing at a ~25% CAGR through 2024.</p><p><blockquote>首先，如果我们假设该股票在 2024 年底的远期收入倍数为 10 倍，并且使用该公司 10 亿美元的收入目标，这可能意味着到 2024 年底企业价值将达到 100 亿美元。鉴于我们已经接近2021年底，这意味着到2024年，企业价值将以约25%的CAGR增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, this valuation method is a little challenging because in a few years, revenue growth may be below the 30% CAGR that is expected through 2025. Thus, if the company is only growing 20-25% (and assuming profitability has significantly improved), then maybe the multiple is only 8-9x forward revenue, which would imply an enterprise value growth CAGR of ~15-20% for the next few years. That's still a solid return, but at current valuation, it does not leave much room for error.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这种估值方法有点挑战性，因为几年后，收入增长可能会低于预计到2025年的30%复合年增长率。因此，如果公司仅增长20-25%（假设盈利能力显着提高），那么该倍数可能仅为远期收入的8-9倍，这意味着未来几年企业价值增长CAGR约为15-20%。这仍然是一个可观的回报，但以目前的估值来看，它没有太多出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p> Another way to view valuation could be the following. Part of the $1 billion of revenue by 2025 could come from inorganic contributions, thus, the company's valuation multiple should better reflect their organic growth rate. By adding acquisitions to the equation and assuming a lower organic growth, we can still get to the company's ~30% revenue growth CAGR, but maybe the forward revenue multiple pulls back towards 5-8x. In addition, this forward revenue multiple would assume a significant expansion in profitability margins and positive free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>另一种查看估值的方法如下。到 2025 年 10 亿美元收入的一部分可能来自无机贡献，因此，该公司的估值倍数应该更好地反映其有机增长率。通过将收购添加到等式中并假设有机增长较低，我们仍然可以实现公司约 30% 的收入增长 CAGR，但也许未来的收入倍数会回落至 5-8 倍。此外，该远期收入倍数将假设利润率和正自由现金流显着扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Under this scenario, we could see the stock's enterprise value grow at 10%+ CAGR over the next few years, which does not seem overly attractive considering the current valuation and embedded execution risks.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我们可能会看到该股的企业价值在未来几年内以 10% 以上的复合年增长率增长，考虑到当前的估值和嵌入的执行风险，这似乎并不太有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The stock currently trades just under 17x forward revenue as investors have confidence in the long-term trajectory. However, I continue to remain on the sidelines for now and the stock already is pricing in a strong rebound. I think a better entry point would be under $40.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对长期轨迹充满信心，该股目前的交易价格略低于 17 倍。然而，我目前继续观望，该股已经出现强劲反弹。我认为更好的切入点应该在 40 美元以下。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470745-fastly-fsly-stock-on-the-sidelines-for-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSLY":"Fastly, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470745-fastly-fsly-stock-on-the-sidelines-for-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150650904","content_text":"Summary\n\nFastly reported a better-than-expected Q3, though continued adjusted EBITDA losses and negative free cash flow are starting to drain the company's liquidity.\nManagement provided weaker-than-expected Q4 guidance, though the $1 billion revenue target by 2025 optically looks nice.\nValuation seems to be pricing in strong growth over the coming years, and at 17x forward revenue, I remain on the sidelines waiting for a better entry point.\n\nLeon Neal/Getty Images News\nFastly (FSLY) reported a good Q3 earnings with revenue above expectations, though the negative adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow continue to place questions around longer-term profitability. The stock has traded down around 15% since the company's earnings release, though continues to trade at a premium 17x forward revenue multiple.\nManagement also provided guidance for Q4 which seemed a little soft compared to expectations. On top of that, their $1 billion revenue target by 2025 seems positive at face value and represents a 30% growth CAGR, though they did acknowledge that some growth could come from M&A, meaning organic growth might be lower than 30%.\nData by YCharts\nWhile the growth prospects have improved, I still remain on the sidelines and wait for a better entry point. I believe there remains execution risk to the growth story and even though the $1 billion revenue target seems positive, I believe investors will turn their focus towards profitability and the potential need to tap the debt and/or equity markets to fund growth given their negative free cash flows.\nI last wrote about FSLY in mid-September when the stock was trading around $45 and noted a better entry point would be below $40. Since then, the stock has been quite volatile, yet we are still around the same $45 level.\nFastly operates a CDN (content delivery network). In other words, that have a network of services and data centers globally distributed that makes it easier for consumers to access faster internet. Through their edge cloud platform, FSLY's infrastructure is closer to the consumer's desired destination, which increases internet response times and can reduce latency.\nRecent Financial Review\nRevenue during Q3 grew 23% to $87 million, which came in just over $3 million above expectations for $83-84 million. Even though revenue had nearly $1 million impact from some write-downs associated with their Signal Sciences acquisition, growth was still pretty strong.\nHowever, the company's adjusted EBITDA loss came in around $5.4 million, which was much worse than the profit of $0.8 million last year. It also should be noted that within adjusted EBITDA, the company is adding back a lot of stock compensation, to the tune of $36.6 million during the quarter. On a GAAP basis, the company's net loss was over $56 million.\nYes, investors are still more focused around the company's revenue growth potential, which I will discuss later on, but eventually FSLY will need to demonstrate a path towards consistent profitability.\nSource: Company Presentation\nEven when looking at the company's free cash flow metrics, only once in the past 7+ quarters have been positive. The cash burn rate remains quite large and eventually we could see the company tap the debt and/or equity market for additional liquidity.\nWith almost $1.1 billion of cash and marketable securities combined with over $900 million of long-term debt, the company is sitting on just $200 million of net cash.\nOn a positive note, the company continues to expand their enterprise customer base, which reached 430 customers during the quarter. Net retention rate was 112%, which improved quite a bit from the 93% reported in the year-ago period.\nHowever, when we look at a dollar-based net expansion rate, this came in at 118% during the quarter, down from 126% last quarter. Yes, this metric remains well above 100%, which signals continued strong growth, but the sequential slowdown may wave a slight caution flag for some investors.\nSource: Company Presentation\nManagement provided guidance for Q4 which came in a little light of expectations. Revenue is expected to be $90-93 million and was a little below consensus expectations of $94.5 million. Also, non-GAAP operating loss is expected to be $15-18 million.\nOn top of that, the company talked about their $1 billion revenue goal by 2025. Optically, it sounds great to say the company is going to generate $1 billion of revenue. Looking at little further into this, $1 billion of revenue would represent a growth CAGR of ~30% for the next four years. Yes, this is a very strong growth rate, but the stock's valuation is already pricing in high expectations.\nOther Recent Updates\nBack in June, the company went through a widely publicized service outage that resulted in the company issuing credit to customers, the slowdown of existing traffic expansion, and the loss of a top 10 customer. Rumors also surfaced that Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)stopped using Fastly's services after the outage and it seems like the service outage impacts continue to weigh on the stock.\nDuring the conference call,management was asked about the extent to which traffic volumes have started to come back from some of these larger clients.\n\n So I think, as we've said, the top customer didn't return traffic, they returned to traffic. They do continue to ramp. The larger customers, when they come back, typically ramp their traffic back over time. I don't have a specific timeline, but they are back and that will increase over time.\n\nSo while the traffic continues to ramp, it seems like it could take several quarters for the traffic to fully come back, that is if Amazon (or other larger clients) wants to come back to FSLY.\nSource: CDN Traffic Share\nWhen looking at CDN Traffic Share, it continues to seem like Fastly has permanently lost a good chunk of their Amazon business. The charts above show the past 30-day CDN usage of Amazon, with the two primary resources being Amazon CloudFront and Akamai(NASDAQ:AKAM). Yes, Fastly is still seeing some traffic flow through their system, but they remain third on the totem pole and may have a long pathway back towards becoming a primary provider.\nValuation\nGiven the volatile news flow over the past several months, we have seen the stock trade in quite a volatile fashion, with +/- 3% days seemingly becoming the natural stock movement. Since reporting earnings, the stock has been down around 15% and remains well below their previous all-time high around $125.\nThe volatility does provide some interesting entry points for investors to make short-term money, however, I continue to believe there remains some execution risk to the stock. I have long-term confidence in the company's edge platform, but I believe valuation fully reflects long-term confidence, and investors should approach with caution.\nData by YCharts\nWith a current market cap of $5.3 billion and net cash of $200 million, this results in the company having an enterprise value of $5.1 billion.\nWhile the company did provide a 2025 revenue target of $1 billion, we can start to view valuation in a few different ways.\nFirst, if we assume the stock will trade at a 10x forward revenue multiple at the end of 2024 and by using the company's $1 billion revenue target, this could imply an enterprise value of $10 billion by the end of 2024. Given that we are already near the end of 2021, this would imply enterprise value growing at a ~25% CAGR through 2024.\nHowever, this valuation method is a little challenging because in a few years, revenue growth may be below the 30% CAGR that is expected through 2025. Thus, if the company is only growing 20-25% (and assuming profitability has significantly improved), then maybe the multiple is only 8-9x forward revenue, which would imply an enterprise value growth CAGR of ~15-20% for the next few years. That's still a solid return, but at current valuation, it does not leave much room for error.\nAnother way to view valuation could be the following. Part of the $1 billion of revenue by 2025 could come from inorganic contributions, thus, the company's valuation multiple should better reflect their organic growth rate. By adding acquisitions to the equation and assuming a lower organic growth, we can still get to the company's ~30% revenue growth CAGR, but maybe the forward revenue multiple pulls back towards 5-8x. In addition, this forward revenue multiple would assume a significant expansion in profitability margins and positive free cash flow.\nUnder this scenario, we could see the stock's enterprise value grow at 10%+ CAGR over the next few years, which does not seem overly attractive considering the current valuation and embedded execution risks.\nThe stock currently trades just under 17x forward revenue as investors have confidence in the long-term trajectory. However, I continue to remain on the sidelines for now and the stock already is pricing in a strong rebound. I think a better entry point would be under $40.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSLY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1116,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/875002689"}
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