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2021-11-25
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Amazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>亚马逊股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote>
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Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.</li> <li>AWS is facing intense pressure from Azure's success in the Cloud SaaS space. Therefore, Amazon needs to up its SaaS game to compete with Microsoft.</li> <li>After a relatively difficult 2021 for Amazon stock, we discuss what investors should look out for next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bba4bd95d42d9fa4a3e427c5da764c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"955\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>georgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊在试图复制 2020 财年惊人的增长时面临着巨大的挑战。尽管如此，它在两年内的增长仍然健康。</li><li>AWS正面临着Azure在云SaaS领域取得成功的巨大压力。因此，亚马逊需要升级其SaaS游戏来与微软竞争。</li><li>在经历了亚马逊股票相对困难的 2021 年之后，我们讨论投资者明年应该关注什么。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>georgeclerk/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock has had a challenging run since August '20. While the rest of its FAANG peers have done well since August '20, AMZN stock has struggled to gain traction. But, perhaps, the market knows better. While the pandemic tailwinds drove Amazon's business to new heights last year, it has struggled to repeat its performance in 2021. It reported its weakest quarter over the previous three years in FQ3. To make matters worse, Andy Jassy & Co. issued a relatively soft FQ4 guidance that disappointed investors.</p><p><blockquote>自 20 年 8 月以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股票经历了充满挑战的表现。尽管其他 FAANG 同行自 20 年 8 月以来表现良好，但 AMZN 股票一直在努力获得牵引力。但是，也许，市场更清楚。虽然去年大流行的顺风将亚马逊的业务推向了新的高度，但它一直在努力在2021年重复其表现。该公司第三季度公布了过去三年来最弱的一个季度。更糟糕的是，Andy Jassy & Co. 发布了相对宽松的第四季度指引，令投资者感到失望。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the market is always forward-looking. After enduring a sharp sell-down post-FQ3 earnings, its stock has already recovered its losses and went on to test its recent all-time high (ATH).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场总是具有前瞻性的。在经历了第三季度盈利后的大幅抛售后，其股价已经收复失地，并继续测试近期的历史高点 (ATH)。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss what investors should look out for in FY22. We also discuss whether investors can add AMZN stock now, given the weakness in the market recently.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论投资者在 2022 财年应该关注什么。我们还讨论了鉴于近期市场疲软，投资者现在是否可以增持 AMZN 股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMZN Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7953a3a70a5a2abbfc41ed9aa7da757\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AMZN stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊股票年初至今表现（截至 21 年 11 月 23 日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMZN stock has been in a relatively long consolidation phase since August '20. Therefore, investors should not be surprised that the stock has underperformed the broad market in 2021. Nevertheless, it was close to testing its July ATH recently as it recovered remarkably from its post-earnings sell-off. The current market retracement has impacted its recovery momentum. Notwithstanding, we believe that the impact is transitory. We have confidence that AMZN stock will be on its way to taking out its July ATH again moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>自 20 年 8 月以来，AMZN 股票一直处于相对较长的盘整阶段。因此，投资者不应对该股2021年表现逊于大盘感到惊讶。尽管如此，该公司最近已接近测试 7 月份的股价，因为它已从财报后抛售中显着复苏。当前市场回调影响了其复苏势头。尽管如此，我们认为这种影响是暂时的。我们相信 AMZN 股票将在 7 月份再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon's Growth Should Normalize After An Exceptionally Challenging FY21 Comp</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在经历了极具挑战性的 21 财年业绩后，亚马逊的增长应该会恢复正常</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17651a986ac6b754a69d5277ae0b26e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon quarterly revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊季度收入同比变化。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> FQ3'21 proved to be an exceptionally challenging quarter for Amazon to comp. The company delivered a report that came in below consensus estimates but was within its guidance.We also highlighted in a previous article just before its FQ3's earnings release that we were confident that the company would outperform consensus. However, we were also surprised when the company didn't meet the consensus estimates. After all, the consensus estimates of a 17% YoY growth rate wasn't that challenging, was it? However, the company posted a 15.3% YoY growth in revenue. Thus, it easily ranked as the lowest YoY change over the last three years. If that wasn't enough, AMZN guided that its FQ4'21 revenue growth would come in at around 7.5% (mid-point). It would thus be the lowest YoY change over the last three years, surpassing FQ3's low. Notably, it also means that the company expects to post a single-digit YoY revenue growth, which is almost unheard of.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，2011 年第三季度对于亚马逊来说是一个异常具有挑战性的季度。该公司发布的报告低于市场普遍预期，但在其指导范围内。我们还在第三季度财报发布前的一篇文章中强调，我们有信心该公司的表现将超出市场预期。然而，当该公司没有达到普遍预期时，我们也感到惊讶。毕竟，17% 的同比增长率的普遍估计并没有那么具有挑战性，不是吗？然而，该公司的收入同比增长了 15.3%。因此，它很容易成为过去三年中最低的同比变化。如果这还不够，AMZN 预计其 2021 年第四季度收入增长将达到 7.5% 左右（中点）。因此，这将是过去三年来最低的同比变化，超过了第三季度的低点。值得注意的是，这也意味着该公司预计同比收入将实现个位数增长，这几乎是闻所未闻的。</blockquote></p><p> Should investors be surprised? We think if we look at its 1-year YoY change, it's undoubtedly worrying. But CFO Brian Olsavsky also reminded investors:</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该感到惊讶吗？我们认为，如果我们看一下它的1年同比变化，无疑令人担忧。但首席财务官布莱恩·奥尔萨夫斯基也提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented <i>a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growth</i>rate in the low 20% range. We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us. (from AMZN's FQ3'21 earnings call) We think this is telling. AMZN is pulling no punches here. It framed its \"disappointing\" FY21 performance so far as it rode the pandemic tailwinds strongly last year. Readers can quickly glean from the chart above where Amazon's revenue grew by 37.6% YoY in FY20. It would certainly be hard-pressed for investors to expect AMZN to outperform or even match FY20's breathtaking performance this year. After all, this company posted revenue worth $458B in the last twelve months (LTM). So, investors must be realistic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊第三季度营收为 1,108 亿美元<i>与大流行前相比，两年复合年增长率为 25%</i>利率在20%的低范围内。我们感谢信任我们的客户。（摘自 AMZN 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）我们认为这很能说明问题。AMZN 在这里没有出拳。该公司将其 2021 财年“令人失望”的业绩框定为去年大流行的顺风车。读者可以从上图中快速了解到亚马逊 2020 财年收入同比增长 37.6%。对于投资者来说，期望 AMZN 今年的表现优于甚至与 2020 财年的惊人业绩相当肯定很难。毕竟，这家公司在过去 12 个月 (LTM) 的收入为 458B 美元。所以，投资者必须现实一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d2da3e09b97239f15dfb3880a269e83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊是。收入意味着共识。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6d6359169456b7e41c8443e99aa8aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon est. revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊是。收入同比变化。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The consensus estimates for FQ4'21 have been revised markedly downwards by 3.1% from September (pre-FQ3 earnings). However, the estimates for FY22 have only been slightly impacted. Consequently, the consensus estimates point to normalized YoY revenue growth of 15% to 20% for AMZN in FY22. Specifically, Amazon is estimated to grow its revenue by 17.8% YoY in FY22. Therefore, the fear that AMZN's growth will slow down drastically might be well overblown.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第四季度的普遍预期较 9 月份（第三季度前收益）显着下调了 3.1%。然而，2022财年的预测仅受到轻微影响。因此，普遍估计 AMZN 2022 财年的正常同比收入增长为 15% 至 20%。具体来说，亚马逊预计 2022 财年收入将同比增长 17.8%。因此，对亚马逊增长将大幅放缓的担忧可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS's Growth Momentum Continues To Lead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS增长势头继续领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share worldwide. Data source: Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球云基础设施服务供应商市场份额。数据来源：Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There's little doubt that AWS continues to face tremendous pressure from the #2 player Azure (MSFT) in the Cloud hyperscaler market. Nonetheless, Amazon has continued to maintain its leadership for its most crucial profitability driver. As a result, AWS's market share remains robust at 32% in CQ3'21, while Azure's share was 21%.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，AWS继续面临来自云超大规模市场第二大玩家Azure（MSFT）的巨大压力。尽管如此，亚马逊在其最重要的盈利驱动力方面继续保持领先地位。因此，AWS 的市场份额在 2021 年第三季度保持强劲，为 32%，而 Azure 的市场份额为 21%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15fd644ae75fe16d3554e7a5252a474a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AWS revenue & YoY change. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AWS 收入和同比变化。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can also observe the strength of AWS in helping Amazon drive its topline growth. AWS posted YoY revenue growth of 38.9% in FQ3, as it maintained its robust growth momentum even as the company's e-commerce segment growth decelerated. In addition, AWS is expected to lead the company's growth momentum moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>我们还可以观察到AWS在帮助亚马逊推动其营收增长方面的实力。AWS 第三季度收入同比增长 38.9%，尽管公司电子商务部门增长放缓，但仍保持了强劲的增长势头。此外，AWS有望引领公司的增长势头向前发展。</blockquote></p><p> IDC estimates that Public Cloud spending will continue to grow remarkably over the next four years. The combined spending is estimated to reach $809M by 2025, representing a CAGR of 21%. Therefore, we believe AWS is well-primed to continue riding its secular multi-year growth. Nevertheless, it's facing significant competition from Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS enterprise applications. It's well documented that MSFT has a substantial advantage in Cloud SaaS spending, and it is the undisputed leader. It has been an area where Amazon has been trying to compete, but MSFT has continued to gain share.The Information also expounded on Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS. It added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>IDC估计，未来四年公共云支出将继续显著增长。预计到 2025 年，总支出将达到 8.09 亿美元，复合年增长率为 21%。因此，我们相信 AWS 已做好充分准备，可以继续保持其长期多年增长。然而，它在云SaaS企业应用方面面临着来自Azure edge的激烈竞争。众所周知，MSFT在云SaaS支出方面拥有巨大优势，并且是无可争议的领导者。这是亚马逊一直试图竞争的领域，但 MSFT 继续获得份额。该信息还阐述了Azure在云SaaS中的优势。它添加了（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> One of AWS CEO Selipsky's big decisions will be whether to strike back at Microsoft in applications, where <i>AWS' bare-bones offerings present one of the biggest holes in its product portfolio</i>. Microsoft, in contrast, has one of the deepest libraries of applications in the tech industry. <i>Applications have also given Microsoft deep connections</i> inside the IT departments of large companies, which have in turn made it easier to sell its Azure cloud services. Microsoft's salespeople carry bigger bags filled with more to sell, so they can compete for a larger share of a customer's wallet. This has been a material sales advantage from the primordial days of enterprise IT. (from The Information article) <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/886b8e857e2449d6864fd669130b679a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Global Cloud SaaS revenue share. Data source: ITCandor</span></p><p><blockquote>AWS 首席执行官 Selipsky 的重大决定之一将是是否在应用程序领域反击微软，其中<i>AWS 的基本产品是其产品组合中最大的漏洞之一</i>相比之下，微软拥有科技行业最深厚的应用库之一。<i>应用也为微软提供了深厚的联系</i>在大公司的IT部门内部，这反过来又使销售其Azure云服务变得更加容易。微软的销售人员携带装满更多商品的更大袋子出售，因此他们可以争夺客户钱包的更大份额。从企业IT的早期开始，这就是一个重要的销售优势。（摘自信息文章）<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球云SaaS收入份额。数据来源：ITCandor</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors can easily glean Microsoft's dominance in the Cloud SaaS space. It has even managed to gain share against its closest competitor Salesforce (CRM), as of H1'21. MSFT extended its Cloud SaaS market share to 16.8%, as it further entrenches its leadership in the market. MSFT is far from being the dominant player in this space. But, as explained, Azure pairs its Cloud SaaS capability with its PaaS and IaaS offerings against AWS. Therefore, that allows Azure a solid competitive edge in gaining share in the Cloud market.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以很容易地捕捉到微软在云SaaS领域的主导地位。截至 2021 年上半年，它甚至成功地从最接近的竞争对手 Salesforce (CRM) 手中夺取了市场份额。MSFT将其云SaaS市场份额扩大至16.8%，进一步巩固了其在市场中的领导地位。MSFT 远不是这个领域的主导者。但是，正如所解释的，Azure将其云SaaS功能与其针对AWS的PaaS和IaaS产品配对。因此，这使得Azure在云市场上获得了稳固的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Gartner also highlighted that Cloud SaaS is expected to continue its importance in total Cloud spending. Cloud SaaS spending is expected to stay consistent as total Cloud spending grows.Gartner estimates that Cloud SaaS spending would account for 36.5% of 2022's total Cloud spending.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Gartner还强调，云SaaS预计将继续在云总支出中发挥重要作用。随着云总支出的增长，云 SaaS 支出预计将保持稳定。 Gartner 估计云 SaaS 支出将占 2022 年云总支出的 36.5%。</blockquote></p><p> But AWS is not one to be rolled over. Business Insider reported that AWS has partnerships counting over 100K companies that it relies on to build software applications. The top companies have also developed highly successful collaborations with Amazon, which serves AWS exclusively. As the #1 hyperscaler globally, while Amazon doesn't have the software expertise, it certainly has scale. Therefore, these firms can rely on AWS to give them business if they can consistently deliver. Insider added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>但是AWS不是一个可以被推翻的。Business Insider 报道称，AWS 与超过 10 万家公司建立了合作伙伴关系，依靠这些公司来构建软件应用程序。顶级公司还与专门为AWS提供服务的亚马逊进行了非常成功的合作。作为全球排名第一的超大规模企业，虽然亚马逊没有软件专业知识，但它肯定有规模。因此，如果这些公司能够持续交付，他们可以依靠AWS为他们提供业务。内部人士添加（已编辑）：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From joint marketing that piggybacks off Amazon's massive reach to referrals that turn into new business, <i>the opportunities for AWS partners are \"unlimited,\"</i>but only if they're willing to fight tooth and nail for them. AllCloud CEO Eran Gil emphasized that: \"I think if you choose to do what we did, which is operate specifically in their ecosystem and even more so dedicated to the ecosystem, <i>they really put a lot of effort into making you successful</i>.\" (from Business Insider article) <b>So, Is AMZN Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote>从利用亚马逊庞大影响力的联合营销到转化为新业务的推荐，<i>AWS合作伙伴的机会是“无限的”，</i>但前提是他们愿意全力以赴。AllCloud 首席执行官 Eran Gil 强调：“我认为如果你选择做我们所做的事情，即专门在他们的生态系统中运营，甚至更加致力于生态系统，<i>他们真的花了很多精力让你成功</i>.”（摘自《商业内幕》文章）<b>那么，AMZN 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> AWS is a critical component of our internal fair value (FV) estimates for AMZN stock. We determined that AWS is worth about 40% to 45% of AMZN's stock value. Therefore, a strong AWS segment growing fast and profitably is extremely important to Amazon stock's success moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>AWS 是我们对 AMZN 股票的内部公允价值 (FV) 估计的重要组成部分。我们确定 AWS 的价值约为 AMZN 股票价值的 40% 至 45%。因此，快速盈利增长的强大 AWS 细分市场对于亚马逊股票的成功发展至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, our FV estimates indicate that AMZN stock is not expensive now.'</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们的 FV 估计表明 AMZN 股票现在并不贵。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3e38dfc4201e5e7add3893b076a60e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AMZN stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMZN stock is also currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 23.9x. It's also just above its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean of 22.6x. Thus, even though the stock has been consolidating since August '20, its valuation has been getting more attractive as the company gains operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>AMZN 股票目前的 EV/NTM EBITDA 也为 23.9 倍。它也略高于 3 年 NTM EBITDA 平均值 22.6 倍。因此，尽管该股自 20 年 8 月以来一直在盘整，但随着公司运营杠杆的增加，其估值变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we remain confident of the stock's prognosis in the short/medium term, as well as its long-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们对该股的中短期预测及其长期前景仍然充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>reiterate our Buy rating on AMZN stock</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>重申我们对亚马逊股票的买入评级</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>亚马逊股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>亚马逊股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 15:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Amazon has faced tremendous challenges in trying to replicate its breathtaking growth in FY20. Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.</li> <li>AWS is facing intense pressure from Azure's success in the Cloud SaaS space. Therefore, Amazon needs to up its SaaS game to compete with Microsoft.</li> <li>After a relatively difficult 2021 for Amazon stock, we discuss what investors should look out for next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bba4bd95d42d9fa4a3e427c5da764c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"955\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>georgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊在试图复制 2020 财年惊人的增长时面临着巨大的挑战。尽管如此，它在两年内的增长仍然健康。</li><li>AWS正面临着Azure在云SaaS领域取得成功的巨大压力。因此，亚马逊需要升级其SaaS游戏来与微软竞争。</li><li>在经历了亚马逊股票相对困难的 2021 年之后，我们讨论投资者明年应该关注什么。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>georgeclerk/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock has had a challenging run since August '20. While the rest of its FAANG peers have done well since August '20, AMZN stock has struggled to gain traction. But, perhaps, the market knows better. While the pandemic tailwinds drove Amazon's business to new heights last year, it has struggled to repeat its performance in 2021. It reported its weakest quarter over the previous three years in FQ3. To make matters worse, Andy Jassy & Co. issued a relatively soft FQ4 guidance that disappointed investors.</p><p><blockquote>自 20 年 8 月以来，亚马逊公司 (AMZN) 的股票经历了充满挑战的表现。尽管其他 FAANG 同行自 20 年 8 月以来表现良好，但 AMZN 股票一直在努力获得牵引力。但是，也许，市场更清楚。虽然去年大流行的顺风将亚马逊的业务推向了新的高度，但它一直在努力在2021年重复其表现。该公司第三季度公布了过去三年来最弱的一个季度。更糟糕的是，Andy Jassy & Co. 发布了相对宽松的第四季度指引，令投资者感到失望。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the market is always forward-looking. After enduring a sharp sell-down post-FQ3 earnings, its stock has already recovered its losses and went on to test its recent all-time high (ATH).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场总是具有前瞻性的。在经历了第三季度盈利后的大幅抛售后，其股价已经收复失地，并继续测试近期的历史高点 (ATH)。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss what investors should look out for in FY22. We also discuss whether investors can add AMZN stock now, given the weakness in the market recently.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论投资者在 2022 财年应该关注什么。我们还讨论了鉴于近期市场疲软，投资者现在是否可以增持 AMZN 股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMZN Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7953a3a70a5a2abbfc41ed9aa7da757\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AMZN stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊股票年初至今表现（截至 21 年 11 月 23 日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMZN stock has been in a relatively long consolidation phase since August '20. Therefore, investors should not be surprised that the stock has underperformed the broad market in 2021. Nevertheless, it was close to testing its July ATH recently as it recovered remarkably from its post-earnings sell-off. The current market retracement has impacted its recovery momentum. Notwithstanding, we believe that the impact is transitory. We have confidence that AMZN stock will be on its way to taking out its July ATH again moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>自 20 年 8 月以来，AMZN 股票一直处于相对较长的盘整阶段。因此，投资者不应对该股2021年表现逊于大盘感到惊讶。尽管如此，该公司最近已接近测试 7 月份的股价，因为它已从财报后抛售中显着复苏。当前市场回调影响了其复苏势头。尽管如此，我们认为这种影响是暂时的。我们相信 AMZN 股票将在 7 月份再次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon's Growth Should Normalize After An Exceptionally Challenging FY21 Comp</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在经历了极具挑战性的 21 财年业绩后，亚马逊的增长应该会恢复正常</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17651a986ac6b754a69d5277ae0b26e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon quarterly revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊季度收入同比变化。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> FQ3'21 proved to be an exceptionally challenging quarter for Amazon to comp. The company delivered a report that came in below consensus estimates but was within its guidance.We also highlighted in a previous article just before its FQ3's earnings release that we were confident that the company would outperform consensus. However, we were also surprised when the company didn't meet the consensus estimates. After all, the consensus estimates of a 17% YoY growth rate wasn't that challenging, was it? However, the company posted a 15.3% YoY growth in revenue. Thus, it easily ranked as the lowest YoY change over the last three years. If that wasn't enough, AMZN guided that its FQ4'21 revenue growth would come in at around 7.5% (mid-point). It would thus be the lowest YoY change over the last three years, surpassing FQ3's low. Notably, it also means that the company expects to post a single-digit YoY revenue growth, which is almost unheard of.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，2011 年第三季度对于亚马逊来说是一个异常具有挑战性的季度。该公司发布的报告低于市场普遍预期，但在其指导范围内。我们还在第三季度财报发布前的一篇文章中强调，我们有信心该公司的表现将超出市场预期。然而，当该公司没有达到普遍预期时，我们也感到惊讶。毕竟，17% 的同比增长率的普遍估计并没有那么具有挑战性，不是吗？然而，该公司的收入同比增长了 15.3%。因此，它很容易成为过去三年中最低的同比变化。如果这还不够，AMZN 预计其 2021 年第四季度收入增长将达到 7.5% 左右（中点）。因此，这将是过去三年来最低的同比变化，超过了第三季度的低点。值得注意的是，这也意味着该公司预计同比收入将实现个位数增长，这几乎是闻所未闻的。</blockquote></p><p> Should investors be surprised? We think if we look at its 1-year YoY change, it's undoubtedly worrying. But CFO Brian Olsavsky also reminded investors:</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该感到惊讶吗？我们认为，如果我们看一下它的1年同比变化，无疑令人担忧。但首席财务官布莱恩·奥尔萨夫斯基也提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented <i>a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growth</i>rate in the low 20% range. We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us. (from AMZN's FQ3'21 earnings call) We think this is telling. AMZN is pulling no punches here. It framed its \"disappointing\" FY21 performance so far as it rode the pandemic tailwinds strongly last year. Readers can quickly glean from the chart above where Amazon's revenue grew by 37.6% YoY in FY20. It would certainly be hard-pressed for investors to expect AMZN to outperform or even match FY20's breathtaking performance this year. After all, this company posted revenue worth $458B in the last twelve months (LTM). So, investors must be realistic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊第三季度营收为 1,108 亿美元<i>与大流行前相比，两年复合年增长率为 25%</i>利率在20%的低范围内。我们感谢信任我们的客户。（摘自 AMZN 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）我们认为这很能说明问题。AMZN 在这里没有出拳。该公司将其 2021 财年“令人失望”的业绩框定为去年大流行的顺风车。读者可以从上图中快速了解到亚马逊 2020 财年收入同比增长 37.6%。对于投资者来说，期望 AMZN 今年的表现优于甚至与 2020 财年的惊人业绩相当肯定很难。毕竟，这家公司在过去 12 个月 (LTM) 的收入为 458B 美元。所以，投资者必须现实一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d2da3e09b97239f15dfb3880a269e83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊是。收入意味着共识。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6d6359169456b7e41c8443e99aa8aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon est. revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊是。收入同比变化。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The consensus estimates for FQ4'21 have been revised markedly downwards by 3.1% from September (pre-FQ3 earnings). However, the estimates for FY22 have only been slightly impacted. Consequently, the consensus estimates point to normalized YoY revenue growth of 15% to 20% for AMZN in FY22. Specifically, Amazon is estimated to grow its revenue by 17.8% YoY in FY22. Therefore, the fear that AMZN's growth will slow down drastically might be well overblown.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第四季度的普遍预期较 9 月份（第三季度前收益）显着下调了 3.1%。然而，2022财年的预测仅受到轻微影响。因此，普遍估计 AMZN 2022 财年的正常同比收入增长为 15% 至 20%。具体来说，亚马逊预计 2022 财年收入将同比增长 17.8%。因此，对亚马逊增长将大幅放缓的担忧可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS's Growth Momentum Continues To Lead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS增长势头继续领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share worldwide. Data source: Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球云基础设施服务供应商市场份额。数据来源：Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There's little doubt that AWS continues to face tremendous pressure from the #2 player Azure (MSFT) in the Cloud hyperscaler market. Nonetheless, Amazon has continued to maintain its leadership for its most crucial profitability driver. As a result, AWS's market share remains robust at 32% in CQ3'21, while Azure's share was 21%.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，AWS继续面临来自云超大规模市场第二大玩家Azure（MSFT）的巨大压力。尽管如此，亚马逊在其最重要的盈利驱动力方面继续保持领先地位。因此，AWS 的市场份额在 2021 年第三季度保持强劲，为 32%，而 Azure 的市场份额为 21%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15fd644ae75fe16d3554e7a5252a474a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AWS revenue & YoY change. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AWS 收入和同比变化。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can also observe the strength of AWS in helping Amazon drive its topline growth. AWS posted YoY revenue growth of 38.9% in FQ3, as it maintained its robust growth momentum even as the company's e-commerce segment growth decelerated. In addition, AWS is expected to lead the company's growth momentum moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>我们还可以观察到AWS在帮助亚马逊推动其营收增长方面的实力。AWS 第三季度收入同比增长 38.9%，尽管公司电子商务部门增长放缓，但仍保持了强劲的增长势头。此外，AWS有望引领公司的增长势头向前发展。</blockquote></p><p> IDC estimates that Public Cloud spending will continue to grow remarkably over the next four years. The combined spending is estimated to reach $809M by 2025, representing a CAGR of 21%. Therefore, we believe AWS is well-primed to continue riding its secular multi-year growth. Nevertheless, it's facing significant competition from Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS enterprise applications. It's well documented that MSFT has a substantial advantage in Cloud SaaS spending, and it is the undisputed leader. It has been an area where Amazon has been trying to compete, but MSFT has continued to gain share.The Information also expounded on Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS. It added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>IDC估计，未来四年公共云支出将继续显著增长。预计到 2025 年，总支出将达到 8.09 亿美元，复合年增长率为 21%。因此，我们相信 AWS 已做好充分准备，可以继续保持其长期多年增长。然而，它在云SaaS企业应用方面面临着来自Azure edge的激烈竞争。众所周知，MSFT在云SaaS支出方面拥有巨大优势，并且是无可争议的领导者。这是亚马逊一直试图竞争的领域，但 MSFT 继续获得份额。该信息还阐述了Azure在云SaaS中的优势。它添加了（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> One of AWS CEO Selipsky's big decisions will be whether to strike back at Microsoft in applications, where <i>AWS' bare-bones offerings present one of the biggest holes in its product portfolio</i>. Microsoft, in contrast, has one of the deepest libraries of applications in the tech industry. <i>Applications have also given Microsoft deep connections</i> inside the IT departments of large companies, which have in turn made it easier to sell its Azure cloud services. Microsoft's salespeople carry bigger bags filled with more to sell, so they can compete for a larger share of a customer's wallet. This has been a material sales advantage from the primordial days of enterprise IT. (from The Information article) <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/886b8e857e2449d6864fd669130b679a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Global Cloud SaaS revenue share. Data source: ITCandor</span></p><p><blockquote>AWS 首席执行官 Selipsky 的重大决定之一将是是否在应用程序领域反击微软，其中<i>AWS 的基本产品是其产品组合中最大的漏洞之一</i>相比之下，微软拥有科技行业最深厚的应用库之一。<i>应用也为微软提供了深厚的联系</i>在大公司的IT部门内部，这反过来又使销售其Azure云服务变得更加容易。微软的销售人员携带装满更多商品的更大袋子出售，因此他们可以争夺客户钱包的更大份额。从企业IT的早期开始，这就是一个重要的销售优势。（摘自信息文章）<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球云SaaS收入份额。数据来源：ITCandor</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors can easily glean Microsoft's dominance in the Cloud SaaS space. It has even managed to gain share against its closest competitor Salesforce (CRM), as of H1'21. MSFT extended its Cloud SaaS market share to 16.8%, as it further entrenches its leadership in the market. MSFT is far from being the dominant player in this space. But, as explained, Azure pairs its Cloud SaaS capability with its PaaS and IaaS offerings against AWS. Therefore, that allows Azure a solid competitive edge in gaining share in the Cloud market.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以很容易地捕捉到微软在云SaaS领域的主导地位。截至 2021 年上半年，它甚至成功地从最接近的竞争对手 Salesforce (CRM) 手中夺取了市场份额。MSFT将其云SaaS市场份额扩大至16.8%，进一步巩固了其在市场中的领导地位。MSFT 远不是这个领域的主导者。但是，正如所解释的，Azure将其云SaaS功能与其针对AWS的PaaS和IaaS产品配对。因此，这使得Azure在云市场上获得了稳固的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Gartner also highlighted that Cloud SaaS is expected to continue its importance in total Cloud spending. Cloud SaaS spending is expected to stay consistent as total Cloud spending grows.Gartner estimates that Cloud SaaS spending would account for 36.5% of 2022's total Cloud spending.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Gartner还强调，云SaaS预计将继续在云总支出中发挥重要作用。随着云总支出的增长，云 SaaS 支出预计将保持稳定。 Gartner 估计云 SaaS 支出将占 2022 年云总支出的 36.5%。</blockquote></p><p> But AWS is not one to be rolled over. Business Insider reported that AWS has partnerships counting over 100K companies that it relies on to build software applications. The top companies have also developed highly successful collaborations with Amazon, which serves AWS exclusively. As the #1 hyperscaler globally, while Amazon doesn't have the software expertise, it certainly has scale. Therefore, these firms can rely on AWS to give them business if they can consistently deliver. Insider added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>但是AWS不是一个可以被推翻的。Business Insider 报道称，AWS 与超过 10 万家公司建立了合作伙伴关系，依靠这些公司来构建软件应用程序。顶级公司还与专门为AWS提供服务的亚马逊进行了非常成功的合作。作为全球排名第一的超大规模企业，虽然亚马逊没有软件专业知识，但它肯定有规模。因此，如果这些公司能够持续交付，他们可以依靠AWS为他们提供业务。内部人士添加（已编辑）：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From joint marketing that piggybacks off Amazon's massive reach to referrals that turn into new business, <i>the opportunities for AWS partners are \"unlimited,\"</i>but only if they're willing to fight tooth and nail for them. AllCloud CEO Eran Gil emphasized that: \"I think if you choose to do what we did, which is operate specifically in their ecosystem and even more so dedicated to the ecosystem, <i>they really put a lot of effort into making you successful</i>.\" (from Business Insider article) <b>So, Is AMZN Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote>从利用亚马逊庞大影响力的联合营销到转化为新业务的推荐，<i>AWS合作伙伴的机会是“无限的”，</i>但前提是他们愿意全力以赴。AllCloud 首席执行官 Eran Gil 强调：“我认为如果你选择做我们所做的事情，即专门在他们的生态系统中运营，甚至更加致力于生态系统，<i>他们真的花了很多精力让你成功</i>.”（摘自《商业内幕》文章）<b>那么，AMZN 股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> AWS is a critical component of our internal fair value (FV) estimates for AMZN stock. We determined that AWS is worth about 40% to 45% of AMZN's stock value. Therefore, a strong AWS segment growing fast and profitably is extremely important to Amazon stock's success moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>AWS 是我们对 AMZN 股票的内部公允价值 (FV) 估计的重要组成部分。我们确定 AWS 的价值约为 AMZN 股票价值的 40% 至 45%。因此，快速盈利增长的强大 AWS 细分市场对于亚马逊股票的成功发展至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, our FV estimates indicate that AMZN stock is not expensive now.'</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们的 FV 估计表明 AMZN 股票现在并不贵。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3e38dfc4201e5e7add3893b076a60e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AMZN stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN 股票 EV/NTM EBITDA 3 年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMZN stock is also currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 23.9x. It's also just above its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean of 22.6x. Thus, even though the stock has been consolidating since August '20, its valuation has been getting more attractive as the company gains operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>AMZN 股票目前的 EV/NTM EBITDA 也为 23.9 倍。它也略高于 3 年 NTM EBITDA 平均值 22.6 倍。因此，尽管该股自 20 年 8 月以来一直在盘整，但随着公司运营杠杆的增加，其估值变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we remain confident of the stock's prognosis in the short/medium term, as well as its long-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们对该股的中短期预测及其长期前景仍然充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>reiterate our Buy rating on AMZN stock</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>重申我们对亚马逊股票的买入评级</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471825-amazon-stock-forecast-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471825-amazon-stock-forecast-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116400328","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon has faced tremendous challenges in trying to replicate its breathtaking growth in FY20. Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.\nAWS is facing intense pressure from Azure's success in the Cloud SaaS space. Therefore, Amazon needs to up its SaaS game to compete with Microsoft.\nAfter a relatively difficult 2021 for Amazon stock, we discuss what investors should look out for next year.\n\ngeorgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock has had a challenging run since August '20. While the rest of its FAANG peers have done well since August '20, AMZN stock has struggled to gain traction. But, perhaps, the market knows better. While the pandemic tailwinds drove Amazon's business to new heights last year, it has struggled to repeat its performance in 2021. It reported its weakest quarter over the previous three years in FQ3. To make matters worse, Andy Jassy & Co. issued a relatively soft FQ4 guidance that disappointed investors.\nNevertheless, the market is always forward-looking. After enduring a sharp sell-down post-FQ3 earnings, its stock has already recovered its losses and went on to test its recent all-time high (ATH).\nWe discuss what investors should look out for in FY22. We also discuss whether investors can add AMZN stock now, given the weakness in the market recently.\nAMZN Stock YTD Performance\nAMZN stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).\nAMZN stock has been in a relatively long consolidation phase since August '20. Therefore, investors should not be surprised that the stock has underperformed the broad market in 2021. Nevertheless, it was close to testing its July ATH recently as it recovered remarkably from its post-earnings sell-off. The current market retracement has impacted its recovery momentum. Notwithstanding, we believe that the impact is transitory. We have confidence that AMZN stock will be on its way to taking out its July ATH again moving ahead.\nAmazon's Growth Should Normalize After An Exceptionally Challenging FY21 Comp\nAmazon quarterly revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nFQ3'21 proved to be an exceptionally challenging quarter for Amazon to comp. The company delivered a report that came in below consensus estimates but was within its guidance.We also highlighted in a previous article just before its FQ3's earnings release that we were confident that the company would outperform consensus. However, we were also surprised when the company didn't meet the consensus estimates. After all, the consensus estimates of a 17% YoY growth rate wasn't that challenging, was it? However, the company posted a 15.3% YoY growth in revenue. Thus, it easily ranked as the lowest YoY change over the last three years. If that wasn't enough, AMZN guided that its FQ4'21 revenue growth would come in at around 7.5% (mid-point). It would thus be the lowest YoY change over the last three years, surpassing FQ3's low. Notably, it also means that the company expects to post a single-digit YoY revenue growth, which is almost unheard of.\nShould investors be surprised? We think if we look at its 1-year YoY change, it's undoubtedly worrying. But CFO Brian Olsavsky also reminded investors:\n\n Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented\n a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growthrate in the low 20% range. We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us. (from AMZN's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nWe think this is telling. AMZN is pulling no punches here. It framed its \"disappointing\" FY21 performance so far as it rode the pandemic tailwinds strongly last year. Readers can quickly glean from the chart above where Amazon's revenue grew by 37.6% YoY in FY20. It would certainly be hard-pressed for investors to expect AMZN to outperform or even match FY20's breathtaking performance this year. After all, this company posted revenue worth $458B in the last twelve months (LTM). So, investors must be realistic.\nAmazon est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nAmazon est. revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe consensus estimates for FQ4'21 have been revised markedly downwards by 3.1% from September (pre-FQ3 earnings). However, the estimates for FY22 have only been slightly impacted. Consequently, the consensus estimates point to normalized YoY revenue growth of 15% to 20% for AMZN in FY22. Specifically, Amazon is estimated to grow its revenue by 17.8% YoY in FY22. Therefore, the fear that AMZN's growth will slow down drastically might be well overblown.\nAWS's Growth Momentum Continues To Lead\nCloud infrastructure services vendor market share worldwide. Data source: Canalys\nThere's little doubt that AWS continues to face tremendous pressure from the #2 player Azure (MSFT) in the Cloud hyperscaler market. Nonetheless, Amazon has continued to maintain its leadership for its most crucial profitability driver. As a result, AWS's market share remains robust at 32% in CQ3'21, while Azure's share was 21%.\nAWS revenue & YoY change. Data source: Company filings\nWe can also observe the strength of AWS in helping Amazon drive its topline growth. AWS posted YoY revenue growth of 38.9% in FQ3, as it maintained its robust growth momentum even as the company's e-commerce segment growth decelerated. In addition, AWS is expected to lead the company's growth momentum moving forward.\nIDC estimates that Public Cloud spending will continue to grow remarkably over the next four years. The combined spending is estimated to reach $809M by 2025, representing a CAGR of 21%. Therefore, we believe AWS is well-primed to continue riding its secular multi-year growth. Nevertheless, it's facing significant competition from Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS enterprise applications. It's well documented that MSFT has a substantial advantage in Cloud SaaS spending, and it is the undisputed leader. It has been an area where Amazon has been trying to compete, but MSFT has continued to gain share.The Information also expounded on Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS. It added (edited):\n\n One of AWS CEO Selipsky's big decisions will be whether to strike back at Microsoft in applications, where \n AWS' bare-bones offerings present one of the biggest holes in its product portfolio. Microsoft, in contrast, has one of the deepest libraries of applications in the tech industry.\n Applications have also given Microsoft deep connections inside the IT departments of large companies, which have in turn made it easier to sell its Azure cloud services. Microsoft's salespeople carry bigger bags filled with more to sell, so they can compete for a larger share of a customer's wallet. This has been a material sales advantage from the primordial days of enterprise IT. (from The Information article)\n\nGlobal Cloud SaaS revenue share. Data source: ITCandor\nInvestors can easily glean Microsoft's dominance in the Cloud SaaS space. It has even managed to gain share against its closest competitor Salesforce (CRM), as of H1'21. MSFT extended its Cloud SaaS market share to 16.8%, as it further entrenches its leadership in the market. MSFT is far from being the dominant player in this space. But, as explained, Azure pairs its Cloud SaaS capability with its PaaS and IaaS offerings against AWS. Therefore, that allows Azure a solid competitive edge in gaining share in the Cloud market.\nNotably, Gartner also highlighted that Cloud SaaS is expected to continue its importance in total Cloud spending. Cloud SaaS spending is expected to stay consistent as total Cloud spending grows.Gartner estimates that Cloud SaaS spending would account for 36.5% of 2022's total Cloud spending.\nBut AWS is not one to be rolled over. Business Insider reported that AWS has partnerships counting over 100K companies that it relies on to build software applications. The top companies have also developed highly successful collaborations with Amazon, which serves AWS exclusively. As the #1 hyperscaler globally, while Amazon doesn't have the software expertise, it certainly has scale. Therefore, these firms can rely on AWS to give them business if they can consistently deliver. Insider added (edited):\n\n From joint marketing that piggybacks off Amazon's massive reach to referrals that turn into new business,\n the opportunities for AWS partners are \"unlimited,\"but only if they're willing to fight tooth and nail for them. AllCloud CEO Eran Gil emphasized that: \"I think if you choose to do what we did, which is operate specifically in their ecosystem and even more so dedicated to the ecosystem,\n they really put a lot of effort into making you successful.\" (from Business Insider article)\n\nSo, Is AMZN Stock A Buy Now?\nAWS is a critical component of our internal fair value (FV) estimates for AMZN stock. We determined that AWS is worth about 40% to 45% of AMZN's stock value. Therefore, a strong AWS segment growing fast and profitably is extremely important to Amazon stock's success moving forward.\nMoreover, our FV estimates indicate that AMZN stock is not expensive now.'\nAMZN stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nAMZN stock is also currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 23.9x. It's also just above its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean of 22.6x. Thus, even though the stock has been consolidating since August '20, its valuation has been getting more attractive as the company gains operating leverage.\nTherefore, we remain confident of the stock's prognosis in the short/medium term, as well as its long-term prospects.\nConsequently, wereiterate our Buy rating on AMZN stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1005,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874765170"}
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