EdmundSan
2021-11-25
Nice
Amazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>亚马逊股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>
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Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.</li> <li>AWS is facing intense pressure from Azure's success in the Cloud SaaS space. Therefore, Amazon needs to up its SaaS game to compete with Microsoft.</li> <li>After a relatively difficult 2021 for Amazon stock, we discuss what investors should look out for next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bba4bd95d42d9fa4a3e427c5da764c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"955\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>georgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊在试图复制2020财年的惊人增长时面临着巨大的挑战。尽管如此，其增长在两年内仍然是健康的。</li><li>AWS正面临来自Azure在云SaaS领域的成功的巨大压力。因此，亚马逊需要升级其SaaS游戏，以与微软竞争。</li><li>在经历了亚马逊股票相对困难的2021年之后，我们讨论了投资者明年应该关注什么。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>georgeclerk/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock has had a challenging run since August '20. While the rest of its FAANG peers have done well since August '20, AMZN stock has struggled to gain traction. But, perhaps, the market knows better. While the pandemic tailwinds drove Amazon's business to new heights last year, it has struggled to repeat its performance in 2021. It reported its weakest quarter over the previous three years in FQ3. To make matters worse, Andy Jassy & Co. issued a relatively soft FQ4 guidance that disappointed investors.</p><p><blockquote>自20年8月以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股票经历了充满挑战的走势。尽管自20年8月以来，其他FAANG同行表现良好，但AMZN股票一直难以获得关注。但是，也许市场更清楚。尽管去年疫情的顺风将亚马逊的业务推向了新的高度，但它一直难以在2021年重复其业绩。该公司在第三季度报告了过去三年来最疲软的季度。更糟糕的是，Andy Jassy&Co.发布了相对温和的第四季度指引，令投资者感到失望。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the market is always forward-looking. After enduring a sharp sell-down post-FQ3 earnings, its stock has already recovered its losses and went on to test its recent all-time high (ATH).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场总是具有前瞻性。在经历了第三季度盈利后的大幅抛售后，其股价已经收复失地，并继续测试最近的历史高点（ATH）。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss what investors should look out for in FY22. We also discuss whether investors can add AMZN stock now, given the weakness in the market recently.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论投资者在2022财年应该注意什么。我们还讨论了鉴于最近市场疲软，投资者现在是否可以添加亚马逊股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMZN Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7953a3a70a5a2abbfc41ed9aa7da757\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AMZN stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月23日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMZN stock has been in a relatively long consolidation phase since August '20. Therefore, investors should not be surprised that the stock has underperformed the broad market in 2021. Nevertheless, it was close to testing its July ATH recently as it recovered remarkably from its post-earnings sell-off. The current market retracement has impacted its recovery momentum. Notwithstanding, we believe that the impact is transitory. We have confidence that AMZN stock will be on its way to taking out its July ATH again moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>自20年8月以来，AMZN股票一直处于相对较长的盘整阶段。因此，投资者不应对该股在2021年跑输大盘感到惊讶。尽管如此，该公司最近已接近测试7月份的ATH，因为它已从财报后的抛售中显着恢复过来。当前市场回撤影响了其复苏势头。尽管如此，我们认为影响是暂时的。我们相信AMZN股票将再次突破7月ATH。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon's Growth Should Normalize After An Exceptionally Challenging FY21 Comp</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在经历了异常具有挑战性的2021财年业绩之后，亚马逊的增长应该会正常化</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17651a986ac6b754a69d5277ae0b26e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon quarterly revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊季度收入同比变化。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> FQ3'21 proved to be an exceptionally challenging quarter for Amazon to comp. The company delivered a report that came in below consensus estimates but was within its guidance.We also highlighted in a previous article just before its FQ3's earnings release that we were confident that the company would outperform consensus. However, we were also surprised when the company didn't meet the consensus estimates. After all, the consensus estimates of a 17% YoY growth rate wasn't that challenging, was it? However, the company posted a 15.3% YoY growth in revenue. Thus, it easily ranked as the lowest YoY change over the last three years. If that wasn't enough, AMZN guided that its FQ4'21 revenue growth would come in at around 7.5% (mid-point). It would thus be the lowest YoY change over the last three years, surpassing FQ3's low. Notably, it also means that the company expects to post a single-digit YoY revenue growth, which is almost unheard of.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，对于亚马逊来说，21年第三季度是一个极具挑战性的季度。该公司发布的报告低于普遍预期，但在其指导范围内。我们还在第三季度财报发布前的上一篇文章中强调，我们有信心该公司的表现将优于共识。然而，当该公司没有达到普遍预期时，我们也感到惊讶。毕竟，17%的同比增长率的共识估计并没有那么具有挑战性，不是吗？然而，该公司的收入同比增长15.3%。因此，它很容易被列为过去三年中最低的同比变化。如果这还不够，AMZN预计其21年第四季度的收入增长率将在7.5%左右（中点）。因此，这将是过去三年来最低的同比变化，超过了第三季度的低点。值得注意的是，这也意味着该公司预计收入同比增长个位数，这几乎是闻所未闻的。</blockquote></p><p> Should investors be surprised? We think if we look at its 1-year YoY change, it's undoubtedly worrying. But CFO Brian Olsavsky also reminded investors:</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该感到惊讶吗？我们认为，如果我们看看其1年同比变化，这无疑令人担忧。但首席财务官布莱恩·奥尔萨夫斯基也提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented <i>a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growth</i>rate in the low 20% range. We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us. (from AMZN's FQ3'21 earnings call) We think this is telling. AMZN is pulling no punches here. It framed its \"disappointing\" FY21 performance so far as it rode the pandemic tailwinds strongly last year. Readers can quickly glean from the chart above where Amazon's revenue grew by 37.6% YoY in FY20. It would certainly be hard-pressed for investors to expect AMZN to outperform or even match FY20's breathtaking performance this year. After all, this company posted revenue worth $458B in the last twelve months (LTM). So, investors must be realistic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊第三季度营收为1108亿美元<i>与大流行前的增长率相比，两年复合年增长率为25%</i>比率在20%的低范围内。我们感谢客户对我们的信任。（来自AMZN 21年第三季度收益看涨期权）我们认为这很能说明问题。亚马逊在这里毫不留情。到目前为止，该公司2021财年的业绩“令人失望”，因为去年该公司强劲地乘着疫情的顺风车。读者可以从上图中快速了解到，亚马逊在2020财年的收入同比增长了37.6%。投资者当然很难期望亚马逊今年的表现超过甚至达到2020财年的惊人业绩。毕竟，该公司在过去12个月内公布的收入价值$458B(LTM)。所以，投资者必须现实一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d2da3e09b97239f15dfb3880a269e83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊东部。收入意味着共识。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6d6359169456b7e41c8443e99aa8aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon est. revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊东部。收入同比变化。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The consensus estimates for FQ4'21 have been revised markedly downwards by 3.1% from September (pre-FQ3 earnings). However, the estimates for FY22 have only been slightly impacted. Consequently, the consensus estimates point to normalized YoY revenue growth of 15% to 20% for AMZN in FY22. Specifically, Amazon is estimated to grow its revenue by 17.8% YoY in FY22. Therefore, the fear that AMZN's growth will slow down drastically might be well overblown.</p><p><blockquote>对21年第4季度的普遍预期较9月份（第3季度前收益）大幅下调了3.1%。然而，对2022财年的预测仅受到轻微影响。因此，市场普遍预测AMZN 2022财年正常收入同比增长15%至20%。具体来说，亚马逊预计2022财年收入将同比增长17.8%。因此，对亚马逊增长将大幅放缓的担忧可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS's Growth Momentum Continues To Lead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS增长势头持续领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share worldwide. Data source: Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球云基础设施服务供应商市场份额。数据来源：Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There's little doubt that AWS continues to face tremendous pressure from the #2 player Azure (MSFT) in the Cloud hyperscaler market. Nonetheless, Amazon has continued to maintain its leadership for its most crucial profitability driver. As a result, AWS's market share remains robust at 32% in CQ3'21, while Azure's share was 21%.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，AWS继续面临来自云超大规模市场第二大玩家Azure(MSFT)的巨大压力。尽管如此，亚马逊在其最关键的盈利驱动力方面继续保持领先地位。因此，AWS的市场份额在21年第三季度保持强劲，为32%，而Azure的市场份额为21%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15fd644ae75fe16d3554e7a5252a474a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AWS revenue & YoY change. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AWS收入和同比变化。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can also observe the strength of AWS in helping Amazon drive its topline growth. AWS posted YoY revenue growth of 38.9% in FQ3, as it maintained its robust growth momentum even as the company's e-commerce segment growth decelerated. In addition, AWS is expected to lead the company's growth momentum moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>我们还可以观察到AWS在帮助亚马逊推动营收增长方面的实力。AWS第三季度收入同比增长38.9%，尽管公司电子商务部门增长放缓，但仍保持强劲增长势头。此外，AWS有望引领公司的增长势头向前发展。</blockquote></p><p> IDC estimates that Public Cloud spending will continue to grow remarkably over the next four years. The combined spending is estimated to reach $809M by 2025, representing a CAGR of 21%. Therefore, we believe AWS is well-primed to continue riding its secular multi-year growth. Nevertheless, it's facing significant competition from Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS enterprise applications. It's well documented that MSFT has a substantial advantage in Cloud SaaS spending, and it is the undisputed leader. It has been an area where Amazon has been trying to compete, but MSFT has continued to gain share.The Information also expounded on Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS. It added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>IDC估计，未来四年公共云支出将继续显著增长。预计到2025年，总支出将达到8.09亿美元，复合年增长率为21%。因此，我们相信AWS已做好充分准备，继续实现长期多年增长。尽管如此，它在云SaaS企业应用领域面临着来自Azure优势的激烈竞争。有充分的证据表明，MSFT在云SaaS支出方面具有巨大优势，是无可争议的领导者。这是亚马逊一直试图竞争的领域，但MSFT继续获得份额。该信息还阐述了Azure在云SaaS中的边缘。它补充道（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> One of AWS CEO Selipsky's big decisions will be whether to strike back at Microsoft in applications, where <i>AWS' bare-bones offerings present one of the biggest holes in its product portfolio</i>. Microsoft, in contrast, has one of the deepest libraries of applications in the tech industry. <i>Applications have also given Microsoft deep connections</i> inside the IT departments of large companies, which have in turn made it easier to sell its Azure cloud services. Microsoft's salespeople carry bigger bags filled with more to sell, so they can compete for a larger share of a customer's wallet. This has been a material sales advantage from the primordial days of enterprise IT. (from The Information article) <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/886b8e857e2449d6864fd669130b679a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Global Cloud SaaS revenue share. Data source: ITCandor</span></p><p><blockquote>AWS首席执行官Selipsky的重大决定之一将是是否在应用领域反击微软，其中<i>AWS的基本产品是其产品组合中最大的漏洞之一</i>相比之下，微软拥有科技行业最深厚的应用程序库之一。<i>应用也给了微软很深的联系</i>在大公司的IT部门内部，这反过来又使销售其Azure云服务变得更加容易。微软的销售人员提着更大的袋子，里面装满了更多的东西要卖，这样他们就可以争夺顾客钱包的更大份额。从企业IT的原始时代起，这就是一个重要的销售优势。（摘自资讯文章）<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球云SaaS收入份额。数据来源：ITCandor</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors can easily glean Microsoft's dominance in the Cloud SaaS space. It has even managed to gain share against its closest competitor Salesforce (CRM), as of H1'21. MSFT extended its Cloud SaaS market share to 16.8%, as it further entrenches its leadership in the market. MSFT is far from being the dominant player in this space. But, as explained, Azure pairs its Cloud SaaS capability with its PaaS and IaaS offerings against AWS. Therefore, that allows Azure a solid competitive edge in gaining share in the Cloud market.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以轻松了解微软在云SaaS领域的主导地位。截至21年上半年，它甚至成功地在与最接近的竞争对手Salesforce(CRM)的竞争中获得了份额。MSFT将其云SaaS市场份额扩大至16.8%，进一步巩固了其在市场中的领导地位。MSFT远非这一领域的主导者。但是，正如所解释的，Azure将其云SaaS功能与其PaaS和IaaS产品结合起来对抗AWS。因此，这使得Azure在获得云市场份额方面具有坚实的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Gartner also highlighted that Cloud SaaS is expected to continue its importance in total Cloud spending. Cloud SaaS spending is expected to stay consistent as total Cloud spending grows.Gartner estimates that Cloud SaaS spending would account for 36.5% of 2022's total Cloud spending.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Gartner还强调，SaaS云预计将继续在云总支出中发挥重要作用。随着云总支出的增长，云SaaS支出预计将保持稳定。Gartner估计，云SaaS支出将占2022年云总支出的36.5%。</blockquote></p><p> But AWS is not one to be rolled over. Business Insider reported that AWS has partnerships counting over 100K companies that it relies on to build software applications. The top companies have also developed highly successful collaborations with Amazon, which serves AWS exclusively. As the #1 hyperscaler globally, while Amazon doesn't have the software expertise, it certainly has scale. Therefore, these firms can rely on AWS to give them business if they can consistently deliver. Insider added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>但是AWS不是一个可以被推翻的公司。Business Insider报道称，AWS与超过10万家公司建立了合作伙伴关系，并依赖这些公司来构建软件应用程序。顶级公司还与专门为AWS提供服务的亚马逊建立了非常成功的合作关系。作为全球排名第一的超大规模企业，虽然亚马逊没有软件专业知识，但它肯定有规模。因此，如果这些公司能够始终如一地交付，他们可以依靠AWS为他们提供业务。内部人士补充（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From joint marketing that piggybacks off Amazon's massive reach to referrals that turn into new business, <i>the opportunities for AWS partners are \"unlimited,\"</i>but only if they're willing to fight tooth and nail for them. AllCloud CEO Eran Gil emphasized that: \"I think if you choose to do what we did, which is operate specifically in their ecosystem and even more so dedicated to the ecosystem, <i>they really put a lot of effort into making you successful</i>.\" (from Business Insider article) <b>So, Is AMZN Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote>从借助亚马逊庞大影响力的联合营销到转化为新业务的推荐，<i>AWS合作伙伴的机会是“无限的”，</i>但前提是他们愿意为他们竭尽全力。AllCloud首席执行官Eran Gil强调：“我认为如果你选择做我们所做的事情，即专门在他们的生态系统中运营，甚至更加致力于生态系统，<i>他们真的为让你成功付出了很多努力</i>.”（来自Business Insider文章）<b>那么，AMZN股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> AWS is a critical component of our internal fair value (FV) estimates for AMZN stock. We determined that AWS is worth about 40% to 45% of AMZN's stock value. Therefore, a strong AWS segment growing fast and profitably is extremely important to Amazon stock's success moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>AWS是我们对AMZN股票内部公允价值(FV)估计的重要组成部分。我们确定AWS的价值约为AMZN股票价值的40%至45%。因此，一个快速增长且盈利的强大AWS细分市场对于亚马逊股票的成功极其重要。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, our FV estimates indicate that AMZN stock is not expensive now.'</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们的FV估计表明亚马逊股票现在并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3e38dfc4201e5e7add3893b076a60e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AMZN stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN股票EV/NTM EBITDA 3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMZN stock is also currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 23.9x. It's also just above its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean of 22.6x. Thus, even though the stock has been consolidating since August '20, its valuation has been getting more attractive as the company gains operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>AMZN股票目前的EV/NTM EBITDA为23.9倍。它也略高于22.6倍的3年NTM EBITDA平均值。因此，尽管该股自20年8月以来一直在盘整，但随着公司获得运营杠杆，其估值变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we remain confident of the stock's prognosis in the short/medium term, as well as its long-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们对该股的中短期预测以及长期前景仍然充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>reiterate our Buy rating on AMZN stock</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>重申我们对亚马逊股票的买入评级</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>亚马逊股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>亚马逊股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 15:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Amazon has faced tremendous challenges in trying to replicate its breathtaking growth in FY20. Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.</li> <li>AWS is facing intense pressure from Azure's success in the Cloud SaaS space. Therefore, Amazon needs to up its SaaS game to compete with Microsoft.</li> <li>After a relatively difficult 2021 for Amazon stock, we discuss what investors should look out for next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52bba4bd95d42d9fa4a3e427c5da764c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"955\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>georgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊在试图复制2020财年的惊人增长时面临着巨大的挑战。尽管如此，其增长在两年内仍然是健康的。</li><li>AWS正面临来自Azure在云SaaS领域的成功的巨大压力。因此，亚马逊需要升级其SaaS游戏，以与微软竞争。</li><li>在经历了亚马逊股票相对困难的2021年之后，我们讨论了投资者明年应该关注什么。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>georgeclerk/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock has had a challenging run since August '20. While the rest of its FAANG peers have done well since August '20, AMZN stock has struggled to gain traction. But, perhaps, the market knows better. While the pandemic tailwinds drove Amazon's business to new heights last year, it has struggled to repeat its performance in 2021. It reported its weakest quarter over the previous three years in FQ3. To make matters worse, Andy Jassy & Co. issued a relatively soft FQ4 guidance that disappointed investors.</p><p><blockquote>自20年8月以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股票经历了充满挑战的走势。尽管自20年8月以来，其他FAANG同行表现良好，但AMZN股票一直难以获得关注。但是，也许市场更清楚。尽管去年疫情的顺风将亚马逊的业务推向了新的高度，但它一直难以在2021年重复其业绩。该公司在第三季度报告了过去三年来最疲软的季度。更糟糕的是，Andy Jassy&Co.发布了相对温和的第四季度指引，令投资者感到失望。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the market is always forward-looking. After enduring a sharp sell-down post-FQ3 earnings, its stock has already recovered its losses and went on to test its recent all-time high (ATH).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场总是具有前瞻性。在经历了第三季度盈利后的大幅抛售后，其股价已经收复失地，并继续测试最近的历史高点（ATH）。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss what investors should look out for in FY22. We also discuss whether investors can add AMZN stock now, given the weakness in the market recently.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论投资者在2022财年应该注意什么。我们还讨论了鉴于最近市场疲软，投资者现在是否可以添加亚马逊股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMZN Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7953a3a70a5a2abbfc41ed9aa7da757\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AMZN stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月23日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMZN stock has been in a relatively long consolidation phase since August '20. Therefore, investors should not be surprised that the stock has underperformed the broad market in 2021. Nevertheless, it was close to testing its July ATH recently as it recovered remarkably from its post-earnings sell-off. The current market retracement has impacted its recovery momentum. Notwithstanding, we believe that the impact is transitory. We have confidence that AMZN stock will be on its way to taking out its July ATH again moving ahead.</p><p><blockquote>自20年8月以来，AMZN股票一直处于相对较长的盘整阶段。因此，投资者不应对该股在2021年跑输大盘感到惊讶。尽管如此，该公司最近已接近测试7月份的ATH，因为它已从财报后的抛售中显着恢复过来。当前市场回撤影响了其复苏势头。尽管如此，我们认为影响是暂时的。我们相信AMZN股票将再次突破7月ATH。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon's Growth Should Normalize After An Exceptionally Challenging FY21 Comp</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在经历了异常具有挑战性的2021财年业绩之后，亚马逊的增长应该会正常化</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17651a986ac6b754a69d5277ae0b26e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon quarterly revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊季度收入同比变化。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> FQ3'21 proved to be an exceptionally challenging quarter for Amazon to comp. The company delivered a report that came in below consensus estimates but was within its guidance.We also highlighted in a previous article just before its FQ3's earnings release that we were confident that the company would outperform consensus. However, we were also surprised when the company didn't meet the consensus estimates. After all, the consensus estimates of a 17% YoY growth rate wasn't that challenging, was it? However, the company posted a 15.3% YoY growth in revenue. Thus, it easily ranked as the lowest YoY change over the last three years. If that wasn't enough, AMZN guided that its FQ4'21 revenue growth would come in at around 7.5% (mid-point). It would thus be the lowest YoY change over the last three years, surpassing FQ3's low. Notably, it also means that the company expects to post a single-digit YoY revenue growth, which is almost unheard of.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，对于亚马逊来说，21年第三季度是一个极具挑战性的季度。该公司发布的报告低于普遍预期，但在其指导范围内。我们还在第三季度财报发布前的上一篇文章中强调，我们有信心该公司的表现将优于共识。然而，当该公司没有达到普遍预期时，我们也感到惊讶。毕竟，17%的同比增长率的共识估计并没有那么具有挑战性，不是吗？然而，该公司的收入同比增长15.3%。因此，它很容易被列为过去三年中最低的同比变化。如果这还不够，AMZN预计其21年第四季度的收入增长率将在7.5%左右（中点）。因此，这将是过去三年来最低的同比变化，超过了第三季度的低点。值得注意的是，这也意味着该公司预计收入同比增长个位数，这几乎是闻所未闻的。</blockquote></p><p> Should investors be surprised? We think if we look at its 1-year YoY change, it's undoubtedly worrying. But CFO Brian Olsavsky also reminded investors:</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该感到惊讶吗？我们认为，如果我们看看其1年同比变化，这无疑令人担忧。但首席财务官布莱恩·奥尔萨夫斯基也提醒投资者：</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented <i>a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growth</i>rate in the low 20% range. We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us. (from AMZN's FQ3'21 earnings call) We think this is telling. AMZN is pulling no punches here. It framed its \"disappointing\" FY21 performance so far as it rode the pandemic tailwinds strongly last year. Readers can quickly glean from the chart above where Amazon's revenue grew by 37.6% YoY in FY20. It would certainly be hard-pressed for investors to expect AMZN to outperform or even match FY20's breathtaking performance this year. After all, this company posted revenue worth $458B in the last twelve months (LTM). So, investors must be realistic.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊第三季度营收为1108亿美元<i>与大流行前的增长率相比，两年复合年增长率为25%</i>比率在20%的低范围内。我们感谢客户对我们的信任。（来自AMZN 21年第三季度收益看涨期权）我们认为这很能说明问题。亚马逊在这里毫不留情。到目前为止，该公司2021财年的业绩“令人失望”，因为去年该公司强劲地乘着疫情的顺风车。读者可以从上图中快速了解到，亚马逊在2020财年的收入同比增长了37.6%。投资者当然很难期望亚马逊今年的表现超过甚至达到2020财年的惊人业绩。毕竟，该公司在过去12个月内公布的收入价值$458B(LTM)。所以，投资者必须现实一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d2da3e09b97239f15dfb3880a269e83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊东部。收入意味着共识。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b6d6359169456b7e41c8443e99aa8aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amazon est. revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊东部。收入同比变化。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The consensus estimates for FQ4'21 have been revised markedly downwards by 3.1% from September (pre-FQ3 earnings). However, the estimates for FY22 have only been slightly impacted. Consequently, the consensus estimates point to normalized YoY revenue growth of 15% to 20% for AMZN in FY22. Specifically, Amazon is estimated to grow its revenue by 17.8% YoY in FY22. Therefore, the fear that AMZN's growth will slow down drastically might be well overblown.</p><p><blockquote>对21年第4季度的普遍预期较9月份（第3季度前收益）大幅下调了3.1%。然而，对2022财年的预测仅受到轻微影响。因此，市场普遍预测AMZN 2022财年正常收入同比增长15%至20%。具体来说，亚马逊预计2022财年收入将同比增长17.8%。因此，对亚马逊增长将大幅放缓的担忧可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS's Growth Momentum Continues To Lead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS增长势头持续领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be0bdce70c0fa6ed792e87198796f0d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cloud infrastructure services vendor market share worldwide. Data source: Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球云基础设施服务供应商市场份额。数据来源：Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There's little doubt that AWS continues to face tremendous pressure from the #2 player Azure (MSFT) in the Cloud hyperscaler market. Nonetheless, Amazon has continued to maintain its leadership for its most crucial profitability driver. As a result, AWS's market share remains robust at 32% in CQ3'21, while Azure's share was 21%.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，AWS继续面临来自云超大规模市场第二大玩家Azure(MSFT)的巨大压力。尽管如此，亚马逊在其最关键的盈利驱动力方面继续保持领先地位。因此，AWS的市场份额在21年第三季度保持强劲，为32%，而Azure的市场份额为21%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15fd644ae75fe16d3554e7a5252a474a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AWS revenue & YoY change. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AWS收入和同比变化。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can also observe the strength of AWS in helping Amazon drive its topline growth. AWS posted YoY revenue growth of 38.9% in FQ3, as it maintained its robust growth momentum even as the company's e-commerce segment growth decelerated. In addition, AWS is expected to lead the company's growth momentum moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>我们还可以观察到AWS在帮助亚马逊推动营收增长方面的实力。AWS第三季度收入同比增长38.9%，尽管公司电子商务部门增长放缓，但仍保持强劲增长势头。此外，AWS有望引领公司的增长势头向前发展。</blockquote></p><p> IDC estimates that Public Cloud spending will continue to grow remarkably over the next four years. The combined spending is estimated to reach $809M by 2025, representing a CAGR of 21%. Therefore, we believe AWS is well-primed to continue riding its secular multi-year growth. Nevertheless, it's facing significant competition from Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS enterprise applications. It's well documented that MSFT has a substantial advantage in Cloud SaaS spending, and it is the undisputed leader. It has been an area where Amazon has been trying to compete, but MSFT has continued to gain share.The Information also expounded on Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS. It added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>IDC估计，未来四年公共云支出将继续显著增长。预计到2025年，总支出将达到8.09亿美元，复合年增长率为21%。因此，我们相信AWS已做好充分准备，继续实现长期多年增长。尽管如此，它在云SaaS企业应用领域面临着来自Azure优势的激烈竞争。有充分的证据表明，MSFT在云SaaS支出方面具有巨大优势，是无可争议的领导者。这是亚马逊一直试图竞争的领域，但MSFT继续获得份额。该信息还阐述了Azure在云SaaS中的边缘。它补充道（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> One of AWS CEO Selipsky's big decisions will be whether to strike back at Microsoft in applications, where <i>AWS' bare-bones offerings present one of the biggest holes in its product portfolio</i>. Microsoft, in contrast, has one of the deepest libraries of applications in the tech industry. <i>Applications have also given Microsoft deep connections</i> inside the IT departments of large companies, which have in turn made it easier to sell its Azure cloud services. Microsoft's salespeople carry bigger bags filled with more to sell, so they can compete for a larger share of a customer's wallet. This has been a material sales advantage from the primordial days of enterprise IT. (from The Information article) <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/886b8e857e2449d6864fd669130b679a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Global Cloud SaaS revenue share. Data source: ITCandor</span></p><p><blockquote>AWS首席执行官Selipsky的重大决定之一将是是否在应用领域反击微软，其中<i>AWS的基本产品是其产品组合中最大的漏洞之一</i>相比之下，微软拥有科技行业最深厚的应用程序库之一。<i>应用也给了微软很深的联系</i>在大公司的IT部门内部，这反过来又使销售其Azure云服务变得更加容易。微软的销售人员提着更大的袋子，里面装满了更多的东西要卖，这样他们就可以争夺顾客钱包的更大份额。从企业IT的原始时代起，这就是一个重要的销售优势。（摘自资讯文章）<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球云SaaS收入份额。数据来源：ITCandor</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors can easily glean Microsoft's dominance in the Cloud SaaS space. It has even managed to gain share against its closest competitor Salesforce (CRM), as of H1'21. MSFT extended its Cloud SaaS market share to 16.8%, as it further entrenches its leadership in the market. MSFT is far from being the dominant player in this space. But, as explained, Azure pairs its Cloud SaaS capability with its PaaS and IaaS offerings against AWS. Therefore, that allows Azure a solid competitive edge in gaining share in the Cloud market.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以轻松了解微软在云SaaS领域的主导地位。截至21年上半年，它甚至成功地在与最接近的竞争对手Salesforce(CRM)的竞争中获得了份额。MSFT将其云SaaS市场份额扩大至16.8%，进一步巩固了其在市场中的领导地位。MSFT远非这一领域的主导者。但是，正如所解释的，Azure将其云SaaS功能与其PaaS和IaaS产品结合起来对抗AWS。因此，这使得Azure在获得云市场份额方面具有坚实的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Gartner also highlighted that Cloud SaaS is expected to continue its importance in total Cloud spending. Cloud SaaS spending is expected to stay consistent as total Cloud spending grows.Gartner estimates that Cloud SaaS spending would account for 36.5% of 2022's total Cloud spending.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Gartner还强调，SaaS云预计将继续在云总支出中发挥重要作用。随着云总支出的增长，云SaaS支出预计将保持稳定。Gartner估计，云SaaS支出将占2022年云总支出的36.5%。</blockquote></p><p> But AWS is not one to be rolled over. Business Insider reported that AWS has partnerships counting over 100K companies that it relies on to build software applications. The top companies have also developed highly successful collaborations with Amazon, which serves AWS exclusively. As the #1 hyperscaler globally, while Amazon doesn't have the software expertise, it certainly has scale. Therefore, these firms can rely on AWS to give them business if they can consistently deliver. Insider added (edited):</p><p><blockquote>但是AWS不是一个可以被推翻的公司。Business Insider报道称，AWS与超过10万家公司建立了合作伙伴关系，并依赖这些公司来构建软件应用程序。顶级公司还与专门为AWS提供服务的亚马逊建立了非常成功的合作关系。作为全球排名第一的超大规模企业，虽然亚马逊没有软件专业知识，但它肯定有规模。因此，如果这些公司能够始终如一地交付，他们可以依靠AWS为他们提供业务。内部人士补充（编辑）：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From joint marketing that piggybacks off Amazon's massive reach to referrals that turn into new business, <i>the opportunities for AWS partners are \"unlimited,\"</i>but only if they're willing to fight tooth and nail for them. AllCloud CEO Eran Gil emphasized that: \"I think if you choose to do what we did, which is operate specifically in their ecosystem and even more so dedicated to the ecosystem, <i>they really put a lot of effort into making you successful</i>.\" (from Business Insider article) <b>So, Is AMZN Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote>从借助亚马逊庞大影响力的联合营销到转化为新业务的推荐，<i>AWS合作伙伴的机会是“无限的”，</i>但前提是他们愿意为他们竭尽全力。AllCloud首席执行官Eran Gil强调：“我认为如果你选择做我们所做的事情，即专门在他们的生态系统中运营，甚至更加致力于生态系统，<i>他们真的为让你成功付出了很多努力</i>.”（来自Business Insider文章）<b>那么，AMZN股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> AWS is a critical component of our internal fair value (FV) estimates for AMZN stock. We determined that AWS is worth about 40% to 45% of AMZN's stock value. Therefore, a strong AWS segment growing fast and profitably is extremely important to Amazon stock's success moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>AWS是我们对AMZN股票内部公允价值(FV)估计的重要组成部分。我们确定AWS的价值约为AMZN股票价值的40%至45%。因此，一个快速增长且盈利的强大AWS细分市场对于亚马逊股票的成功极其重要。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, our FV estimates indicate that AMZN stock is not expensive now.'</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们的FV估计表明亚马逊股票现在并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e3e38dfc4201e5e7add3893b076a60e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AMZN stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN股票EV/NTM EBITDA 3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMZN stock is also currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 23.9x. It's also just above its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean of 22.6x. Thus, even though the stock has been consolidating since August '20, its valuation has been getting more attractive as the company gains operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>AMZN股票目前的EV/NTM EBITDA为23.9倍。它也略高于22.6倍的3年NTM EBITDA平均值。因此，尽管该股自20年8月以来一直在盘整，但随着公司获得运营杠杆，其估值变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, we remain confident of the stock's prognosis in the short/medium term, as well as its long-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们对该股的中短期预测以及长期前景仍然充满信心。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>reiterate our Buy rating on AMZN stock</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>重申我们对亚马逊股票的买入评级</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471825-amazon-stock-forecast-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471825-amazon-stock-forecast-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116400328","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon has faced tremendous challenges in trying to replicate its breathtaking growth in FY20. Despite that, its growth is still healthy over a two-year timeframe.\nAWS is facing intense pressure from Azure's success in the Cloud SaaS space. Therefore, Amazon needs to up its SaaS game to compete with Microsoft.\nAfter a relatively difficult 2021 for Amazon stock, we discuss what investors should look out for next year.\n\ngeorgeclerk/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock has had a challenging run since August '20. While the rest of its FAANG peers have done well since August '20, AMZN stock has struggled to gain traction. But, perhaps, the market knows better. While the pandemic tailwinds drove Amazon's business to new heights last year, it has struggled to repeat its performance in 2021. It reported its weakest quarter over the previous three years in FQ3. To make matters worse, Andy Jassy & Co. issued a relatively soft FQ4 guidance that disappointed investors.\nNevertheless, the market is always forward-looking. After enduring a sharp sell-down post-FQ3 earnings, its stock has already recovered its losses and went on to test its recent all-time high (ATH).\nWe discuss what investors should look out for in FY22. We also discuss whether investors can add AMZN stock now, given the weakness in the market recently.\nAMZN Stock YTD Performance\nAMZN stock YTD performance (as of 23 November 21).\nAMZN stock has been in a relatively long consolidation phase since August '20. Therefore, investors should not be surprised that the stock has underperformed the broad market in 2021. Nevertheless, it was close to testing its July ATH recently as it recovered remarkably from its post-earnings sell-off. The current market retracement has impacted its recovery momentum. Notwithstanding, we believe that the impact is transitory. We have confidence that AMZN stock will be on its way to taking out its July ATH again moving ahead.\nAmazon's Growth Should Normalize After An Exceptionally Challenging FY21 Comp\nAmazon quarterly revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nFQ3'21 proved to be an exceptionally challenging quarter for Amazon to comp. The company delivered a report that came in below consensus estimates but was within its guidance.We also highlighted in a previous article just before its FQ3's earnings release that we were confident that the company would outperform consensus. However, we were also surprised when the company didn't meet the consensus estimates. After all, the consensus estimates of a 17% YoY growth rate wasn't that challenging, was it? However, the company posted a 15.3% YoY growth in revenue. Thus, it easily ranked as the lowest YoY change over the last three years. If that wasn't enough, AMZN guided that its FQ4'21 revenue growth would come in at around 7.5% (mid-point). It would thus be the lowest YoY change over the last three years, surpassing FQ3's low. Notably, it also means that the company expects to post a single-digit YoY revenue growth, which is almost unheard of.\nShould investors be surprised? We think if we look at its 1-year YoY change, it's undoubtedly worrying. But CFO Brian Olsavsky also reminded investors:\n\n Amazon's Q3 revenue of $110.8 billion represented\n a 2-year compounded annual growth rate of 25% versus a pre-pandemic growthrate in the low 20% range. We're grateful to our customers who have put their trust in us. (from AMZN's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nWe think this is telling. AMZN is pulling no punches here. It framed its \"disappointing\" FY21 performance so far as it rode the pandemic tailwinds strongly last year. Readers can quickly glean from the chart above where Amazon's revenue grew by 37.6% YoY in FY20. It would certainly be hard-pressed for investors to expect AMZN to outperform or even match FY20's breathtaking performance this year. After all, this company posted revenue worth $458B in the last twelve months (LTM). So, investors must be realistic.\nAmazon est. revenue mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nAmazon est. revenue YoY change. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe consensus estimates for FQ4'21 have been revised markedly downwards by 3.1% from September (pre-FQ3 earnings). However, the estimates for FY22 have only been slightly impacted. Consequently, the consensus estimates point to normalized YoY revenue growth of 15% to 20% for AMZN in FY22. Specifically, Amazon is estimated to grow its revenue by 17.8% YoY in FY22. Therefore, the fear that AMZN's growth will slow down drastically might be well overblown.\nAWS's Growth Momentum Continues To Lead\nCloud infrastructure services vendor market share worldwide. Data source: Canalys\nThere's little doubt that AWS continues to face tremendous pressure from the #2 player Azure (MSFT) in the Cloud hyperscaler market. Nonetheless, Amazon has continued to maintain its leadership for its most crucial profitability driver. As a result, AWS's market share remains robust at 32% in CQ3'21, while Azure's share was 21%.\nAWS revenue & YoY change. Data source: Company filings\nWe can also observe the strength of AWS in helping Amazon drive its topline growth. AWS posted YoY revenue growth of 38.9% in FQ3, as it maintained its robust growth momentum even as the company's e-commerce segment growth decelerated. In addition, AWS is expected to lead the company's growth momentum moving forward.\nIDC estimates that Public Cloud spending will continue to grow remarkably over the next four years. The combined spending is estimated to reach $809M by 2025, representing a CAGR of 21%. Therefore, we believe AWS is well-primed to continue riding its secular multi-year growth. Nevertheless, it's facing significant competition from Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS enterprise applications. It's well documented that MSFT has a substantial advantage in Cloud SaaS spending, and it is the undisputed leader. It has been an area where Amazon has been trying to compete, but MSFT has continued to gain share.The Information also expounded on Azure's edge in Cloud SaaS. It added (edited):\n\n One of AWS CEO Selipsky's big decisions will be whether to strike back at Microsoft in applications, where \n AWS' bare-bones offerings present one of the biggest holes in its product portfolio. Microsoft, in contrast, has one of the deepest libraries of applications in the tech industry.\n Applications have also given Microsoft deep connections inside the IT departments of large companies, which have in turn made it easier to sell its Azure cloud services. Microsoft's salespeople carry bigger bags filled with more to sell, so they can compete for a larger share of a customer's wallet. This has been a material sales advantage from the primordial days of enterprise IT. (from The Information article)\n\nGlobal Cloud SaaS revenue share. Data source: ITCandor\nInvestors can easily glean Microsoft's dominance in the Cloud SaaS space. It has even managed to gain share against its closest competitor Salesforce (CRM), as of H1'21. MSFT extended its Cloud SaaS market share to 16.8%, as it further entrenches its leadership in the market. MSFT is far from being the dominant player in this space. But, as explained, Azure pairs its Cloud SaaS capability with its PaaS and IaaS offerings against AWS. Therefore, that allows Azure a solid competitive edge in gaining share in the Cloud market.\nNotably, Gartner also highlighted that Cloud SaaS is expected to continue its importance in total Cloud spending. Cloud SaaS spending is expected to stay consistent as total Cloud spending grows.Gartner estimates that Cloud SaaS spending would account for 36.5% of 2022's total Cloud spending.\nBut AWS is not one to be rolled over. Business Insider reported that AWS has partnerships counting over 100K companies that it relies on to build software applications. The top companies have also developed highly successful collaborations with Amazon, which serves AWS exclusively. As the #1 hyperscaler globally, while Amazon doesn't have the software expertise, it certainly has scale. Therefore, these firms can rely on AWS to give them business if they can consistently deliver. Insider added (edited):\n\n From joint marketing that piggybacks off Amazon's massive reach to referrals that turn into new business,\n the opportunities for AWS partners are \"unlimited,\"but only if they're willing to fight tooth and nail for them. AllCloud CEO Eran Gil emphasized that: \"I think if you choose to do what we did, which is operate specifically in their ecosystem and even more so dedicated to the ecosystem,\n they really put a lot of effort into making you successful.\" (from Business Insider article)\n\nSo, Is AMZN Stock A Buy Now?\nAWS is a critical component of our internal fair value (FV) estimates for AMZN stock. We determined that AWS is worth about 40% to 45% of AMZN's stock value. Therefore, a strong AWS segment growing fast and profitably is extremely important to Amazon stock's success moving forward.\nMoreover, our FV estimates indicate that AMZN stock is not expensive now.'\nAMZN stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nAMZN stock is also currently trading at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 23.9x. It's also just above its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean of 22.6x. Thus, even though the stock has been consolidating since August '20, its valuation has been getting more attractive as the company gains operating leverage.\nTherefore, we remain confident of the stock's prognosis in the short/medium term, as well as its long-term prospects.\nConsequently, wereiterate our Buy rating on AMZN stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874723105"}
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