NEWBIE
2021-11-24
Tempting
Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote>
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Is this a reasonable expectation?Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.That said, Tigress Financi","content":"<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价刚刚创下历史新高，但一位华尔街多头认为明年股价还可以再上涨25%。这是一个合理的预期吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在11月份创下历史新高。周一，我认为苹果已经成为主导和重塑其运营所在的消费科技市场的专家。部分出于这个原因，即使在160美元的历史峰值价格下，AAPL股票在我看来也值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Tigress Financial的Ivan Feinseth最近将股价目标定为近200美元，创下了近200美元的新高。按照这些水平，AAPL在未来12个月内将呈现约25%的上涨潜力。这是一个合理的预期吗？这个数字会不会太保守了？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 200美元意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p><p><blockquote>从市盈率的角度来看，苹果明年的估值倍数需要扩大到32.8倍，该股才能在2022年此时上涨25%并达到每股200美元。作为参考，今天可比远期倍数仅为28.2倍。远期市盈率直到2020年8月下旬才攀升至30多岁，就在AAPL在第三季度末大幅调整之前。</blockquote></p><p> All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p><p><blockquote>当然，以上所有内容都假设2023年每股收益6.09美元的共识保持不变。如果苹果公司能够在未来几个季度取得超出共识的业绩，即使估值没有任何扩张，该公司的股价也可能升至200美元。例如，这可能是假日季度iPhone销售强劲的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What history says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>历史并不总是重复，但它往往押韵。从这个角度来看，考虑到AAPL目前正处于历史高位，苹果在12个月内上涨25%的可能性似乎更小。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家解释说，如果在大幅下跌期间购买苹果股票，投资其股票往往会在接下来的12个月内获得最高回报。平均而言，当该股从顶部下跌30%以上后买入时，一年的涨幅已接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p><p><blockquote>相反，如果投资者仅在2007年第一部iPhone推出以来的历史高点买入AAPL，并持有股票整整一年，他或她的平均回报率将“仅”为19%。然而，25%或更多的收益并不罕见，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL从峰值开始的一年涨幅分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为AAPL是一个很好的买入并持有股票，每股160美元。然而，从历史高点赚取25%并不是一件容易的事，尽管这种情况以前也发生过。</blockquote></p><p> I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我不一定指望苹果股票在未来12个月左右产生极高的回报。这种情况从峰值价格开始发生的可能性很小，尤其是在股价仅在过去24个月内就上涨了140%之后。但考虑到强劲的商业基本面，更温和、仍跑赢市场的涨幅肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Apple Stock Be Up 25% Next Year?<blockquote>苹果股价明年会上涨25%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-24 08:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价刚刚创下历史新高，但一位华尔街多头认为明年股价还可以再上涨25%。这是一个合理的预期吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在11月份创下历史新高。周一，我认为苹果已经成为主导和重塑其运营所在的消费科技市场的专家。部分出于这个原因，即使在160美元的历史峰值价格下，AAPL股票在我看来也值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3facec59ae76a6c28f4c5847600b4de\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"886\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Tigress Financial的Ivan Feinseth最近将股价目标定为近200美元，创下了近200美元的新高。按照这些水平，AAPL在未来12个月内将呈现约25%的上涨潜力。这是一个合理的预期吗？这个数字会不会太保守了？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What AAPL at $200 means</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 200美元意味着什么</b></blockquote></p><p> From a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.</p><p><blockquote>从市盈率的角度来看，苹果明年的估值倍数需要扩大到32.8倍，该股才能在2022年此时上涨25%并达到每股200美元。作为参考，今天可比远期倍数仅为28.2倍。远期市盈率直到2020年8月下旬才攀升至30多岁，就在AAPL在第三季度末大幅调整之前。</blockquote></p><p> All the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.</p><p><blockquote>当然，以上所有内容都假设2023年每股收益6.09美元的共识保持不变。如果苹果公司能够在未来几个季度取得超出共识的业绩，即使估值没有任何扩张，该公司的股价也可能升至200美元。例如，这可能是假日季度iPhone销售强劲的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What history says</b></p><p><blockquote><b>历史怎么说</b></blockquote></p><p> History does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>历史并不总是重复，但它往往押韵。从这个角度来看，考虑到AAPL目前正处于历史高位，苹果在12个月内上涨25%的可能性似乎更小。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家解释说，如果在大幅下跌期间购买苹果股票，投资其股票往往会在接下来的12个月内获得最高回报。平均而言，当该股从顶部下跌30%以上后买入时，一年的涨幅已接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.</p><p><blockquote>相反，如果投资者仅在2007年第一部iPhone推出以来的历史高点买入AAPL，并持有股票整整一年，他或她的平均回报率将“仅”为19%。然而，25%或更多的收益并不罕见，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4efda4e69cc836339cb92cc143f3dbab\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL从峰值开始的一年涨幅分布。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为AAPL是一个很好的买入并持有股票，每股160美元。然而，从历史高点赚取25%并不是一件容易的事，尽管这种情况以前也发生过。</blockquote></p><p> I would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>我不一定指望苹果股票在未来12个月左右产生极高的回报。这种情况从峰值价格开始发生的可能性很小，尤其是在股价仅在过去24个月内就上涨了140%之后。但考虑到强劲的商业基本面，更温和、仍跑赢市场的涨幅肯定不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/will-apple-stock-be-up-25-next-year","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158359024","content_text":"Apple stock has just made all-time highs, but one Wall Street bull thinks that shares can climb another 25% in the next year. Is this a reasonable expectation?\nApple stock made new all-time highs in November. On Monday, I argued that Apple has become an expert at dominating and reshaping the consumer tech markets in which it operates. In part for this reason, AAPL shares look like a buy to me, even at a historical peak price of $160.\nFigure 1: Apple store in New York, NY.\nThat said, Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth has recentlyseta new Street-high share price target of nearly $200. At those levels, AAPL would present about 25% gain potential over the next 12 months. Is this a reasonable expectation? Might it even be too conservative a number?\nWhat AAPL at $200 means\nFrom a P/E perspective, Apple’s next-year valuation multiple would need to expand to 32.8 times for the stock to climb 25% from here and reach $200 apiece by this time in 2022. For reference, the comparable forward multiple today is only 28.2 times. Forward P/E only climbed well into the 30s recently in late August 2020, moments before AAPL corrected sharply into the end of Q3.\nAll the above, of course, assumes that consensus 2023 EPS of $6.09 remains unchanged. Apple stock could also head to $200, maybe even without any valuation expansion, if the company manages to deliver consensus-beating results in the next few quarters. This could happen as a result of strong iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, for example.\nWhat history says\nHistory does not always repeat, but it often rhymes. From that point of view, Apple’s 25% climb in 12 months seems a bit more unlikely, considering that AAPL currently sits at an all-time high.\nThe Apple Maven has explained that an investment in Apple stock tends to offer the highest return in the following 12 months if shares are bought during a steep drawdown. On average, one-year gains have been nearly 50% when the stock was bought after a 30%-plus decline from the top.\nInstead, if an investor bought AAPL only at all-time highs since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007 and held shares for exactly one year, his or her average return would have been “only” 19%. Gains of 25% or more, however, have not been all that rare, as the histogram below illustrates.\nFigure 2: Distribution of one-year gains in AAPL from a peak.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI continue to think that AAPL is a great buy-and-hold play at $160 per share. However, earning 25% from an all-time high is no easy feat, even though it has happened before.\nI would not necessarily count on Apple stock generating stratospheric returns in the next 12 months or so. The odds are against it happening from a peak price, especially after shares managed to produce gains of 140% in the past 24 months alone. But more modest, still market-beating gains are certainly not out of question, considering the robust business fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":786,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/874345765"}
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